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View Full Version : Brandon Phillips' Future as a Red.



redsfan30
04-02-2012, 02:58 PM
As a result of the pending Joey Votto extention, Brandon's future in Cincinnati is suddenly very much in doubt.

Personally, this saddens me considering his ability and personality but business speaking, I have no idea how both can be signed long term.

I decided to start a thread here for this topic rather than all this talk getting lost in the Votto thread.

Caveat Emperor
04-02-2012, 03:00 PM
It's been a nice ride with Brandon, but cold reality is that he was always a poor bet to outplay the value of any contract they offered him at this point in his career IMO.

Benihana
04-02-2012, 03:08 PM
So much of this depends on where the payroll goes from here.

Obviously it is unlikely that BP gets an extension in the wake of Votto's, but it is impossible to speculate at this point without knowing any more details.

Personally, I'd love to see Brandon back on a 3/$30, but I agree with most others it is highly unlikely at this point. If there is a silver lining, the Reds should make BP a qualifying offer if he plays out the year so that we could secure an additional first and sandwich pick.

RedEye
04-02-2012, 03:08 PM
What Caveat Emperor said. And BTW, you don't need a period at the end of this thread title. ;-)

MikeS21
04-02-2012, 03:20 PM
Let me first say that BP has been a class act since coming here - despite the reputation he had before coming to Cincinnati.

Having said that, it is also apparent that once the 2012 season is over, the Reds have a number of options that could occur in 2013. In addition to Zack Cozart, some of the other players who could factor in the middle infield picture are DiDi Gregorious, Kris Negron, Henry Roriquez, and Brodie Greene. And if the organization foolishly tries to rush Billy Hamilton along in 2012, he has an outside shout at being in Cincinnati in 2013. Granted, none of those players are BP, but many of them could provide solid enough defense. It all boils down to the question of whether or not they can hit.

I think more than anything, the Reds are thinking that come 2013, considering BP's weaknesses at the plate, they have some other options who will certainly be cheaper, and arguably very similar production. And with Votto's final year of his contract kicking in (2013 salary: $17 million), as well as Cueto and Bruce's contracts (both 2013 salaries at $7.5 each) kicking into high gear in 2013, the organization is thinking their cheaper options at SS and 2B are looking mighty attractive.

mattfeet
04-02-2012, 03:22 PM
I wasn't aware that BP, as a 2B, had "weaknesses" at the plate. Dude's pretty stout, given his position.

-matt

Benihana
04-02-2012, 03:27 PM
I wasn't aware that BP, as a 2B, had "weaknesses" at the plate. Dude's pretty stout, given his position.

-matt

Agreed.

Although his point is still well taken, that between Henry Rodriguez, Didi Gregorius, and eventually Billy Hamilton, the Reds have a lot of talent in the pipeline that could compete to man the position for the next 4-6 years.

Notice I removed Negron and Greene (and Valaika, who you didn't include) from the conversation, as I don't think any of them are starting caliber players at the big league level.

MikeS21
04-02-2012, 03:33 PM
I wasn't aware that BP, as a 2B, had "weaknesses" at the plate. Dude's pretty stout, given his position.

-matt
I dunno, I think his plate approach is poor at times. I wonder how much more versatile he would be if he wouldn't keep falling behind 0-2, 1-2, in the pitch counts. Maybe its just me, but it seems he frequently allows the pitcher to get the upper hand, and as a result, many of his AB's tend to be more defensive because he is protecting the plate. Granted, he's been effective hitting on 0-2 counts. But I would love to see him get ahead in the counts more often. He could stand to take a few more BB's. He would make a more effective leadoff hitter if he would raise his OBP. That's my biggest issue.

mattfeet
04-02-2012, 03:34 PM
I mean, what would you expect of a 2B batting line? Not everyone can be Robinson Cano.

-Matt

MikeS21
04-02-2012, 03:37 PM
I mean, what would you expect of a 2B batting line? Not everyone can be Robinson Cano.

-Matt
Maybe I just saw too much of Joe Morgan to expect anything less! :laugh:

durl
04-02-2012, 03:40 PM
I'd like to keep BP but if it were to come down to Votto OR BP, I'd take Votto in a heartbeat. I hope that Phillips will take a little less than he could make elsewhere and enjoy his tenure with the Reds; the team that gave him the opportunity to become an All-Star, Gold Glove player. Bruce did. :)

WildcatFan
04-02-2012, 03:40 PM
I think the real issue here is we're talking about a 30-year-old middle infielder. His skills, particularly defensively, aren't going to maintain the extremely high level they've been at the last few years. I think Orlando Hudson would be a fair comparison--once considered the best defensive second baseman in the NL, and his UZR began plummeting after age 29. I love Phillips as much as the next guy--he's been my favorite player on the team the last two years--but I'm having to come to grips with the fact that dude is about to get PAID, and that contract isn't going to look good once he stops getting to balls he used to. History says that time is coming quickly.

bucksfan2
04-02-2012, 03:44 PM
BP has been a fantastic ambasador for the Reds as well as an All Star second baseman. He is the type of player you want to be a Red and retire as a Red. I am sure if the deal was friendly to the Reds they would welcome him back in a heart beat.

I think the issue becomes is it makes more sense to keep Votto in a Reds uniform than Phillips. I also worry about how well BP will age. He is a guy who uses a ton of his athletic ability to play the game. His swing has a lot of movement and very wristy. He relies on good instincts at 2b but also has very good ability that allows him to do stuff that other 2b's can't. I think guys like that break down and age quicker.

I also think that it would be easier to replace BP's production at 2b than it would Votto's. It would also be much cheaper to do so. Second basemen don't command the same type of money first baseman can.

hebroncougar
04-02-2012, 03:49 PM
You have to sign Votto long term if given the opportunity, and live with what you've got coming up the ranks at 2b. Phillips did get an extension in 2008, and it probably was fair value (just like Votto is potentially getting), it just wasn't a huge long term deal. I think he's gotten paid very fairly while here, but the Reds aren't going to go over value with him from this point on. Votto is in his prime, Phillips is likely started to head onto the downside of his career. The Reds might have beaten the rap on this one, they paid him fairly, now let someone else overpay him for what he did in his prime years, while he probably declines.

fearofpopvol1
04-02-2012, 03:56 PM
I'll repost what I said in the Votto thread...


Brandon Phillips will not be easy to replace. He was a 6 win player last year and has consistently been around a 4+ win player ever since 2007. Bill James is projecting around a 5 win player for 2012. The Reds do not have anyone who will come close to replacing this production in the system at 2B and there aren't many 2B that exist who are with this many wins per season.

I understand that Brandon is likely looking for a long-term deal and that may be too tough of a burden for the Reds, but I would like to see if they could try to sign him for 4 years, 5 max. May not be feasible, but I think Phillips has at least 4 good years left in him.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 04:11 PM
I say the Reds will find a way to keep Phillips.

It's highly speculative on my part, but so is the rest of this thread.

He's not gone. A lot of things can happen. He's an excellent player who will be hard to replace. Walt knows this and I'm sure he's not giving up on Brandon just yet.

Ghosts of 1990
04-02-2012, 04:14 PM
This stinks. Too many people making this a Joey vs. Brandon thing.

Vottomatic
04-02-2012, 04:15 PM
BP needs to lower his expectations. Look at this past offseason. Other than Pujols and Fielder, not many players got what they wanted, and many took less because the market is changing and they had to.

BP will turn 31 during the season. Does he really think he will put up 2011 numbers consistently the next 5 or 6 years? Doubtful.

Brutus
04-02-2012, 04:16 PM
This stinks. Too many people making this a Joey vs. Brandon thing.

It's unfortunate, but I think it's a logical byproduct of the belief there won't be enough money for both.

_Sir_Charles_
04-02-2012, 04:20 PM
I say the Reds will find a way to keep Phillips.

It's highly speculative on my part, but so is the rest of this thread.

He's not gone. A lot of things can happen. He's an excellent player who will be hard to replace. Walt knows this and I'm sure he's not giving up on Brandon just yet.

This. Somehow, someway...it'll happen.

757690
04-02-2012, 04:33 PM
I say the Reds will find a way to keep Phillips.

It's highly speculative on my part, but so is the rest of this thread.

He's not gone. A lot of things can happen. He's an excellent player who will be hard to replace. Walt knows this and I'm sure he's not giving up on Brandon just yet.

First, Cano and Kinsler are free agents next season as well, so the market for 2B will be a bit flooded. It might be wise to let Phillips test the market, as it's rare for three big contracts handed out to the same position in one off season.

Second, the Reds should be able to afford Phillips and Votto next year. But after that, it gets tight. It would require a payroll over $100M, I imagine.

Caveat Emperor
04-02-2012, 04:35 PM
Plus, I think it's safe to say they didn't sell off their best young prospects to let Mat Latos hit free agency either.

mattfeet
04-02-2012, 05:19 PM
Castellini would not confirm Votto deal. "You have to talk to Walt." He did say that signing Votto would not preclude a Phillips deal. #reds

per Fay

mattfeet
04-02-2012, 05:51 PM
Reds continue contract talks with Brandon Phillips even AFTER the pending agreement with Joey Votto...#wantingtowinlongterm

Boss-Hog
04-02-2012, 06:03 PM
Reds continue contract talks with Brandon Phillips even AFTER the pending agreement with Joey Votto...#wantingtowinlongterm
Is that being reported or is it speculation?

hebroncougar
04-02-2012, 06:05 PM
Is that being reported or is it speculation?

I believe it was reported by Fay, said by Castellini,

Matt700wlw
04-02-2012, 06:12 PM
With Votto (likely) locked up, Latos signed and under control, Cueto signed and under control, Bruce signed and under control...the question is Phillips, who would be the oldest player in this group.

Maybe they get it done, don't rule anything out, but that core above is solid and young...

Caveat Emperor
04-02-2012, 06:22 PM
Is that being reported or is it speculation?

Bowden just reported the same thing 700 WLW with Mo Egger. Said that he had spoken to Phillips agent and heard they were still talking even after the Votto news leaked.

defender
04-02-2012, 06:23 PM
I think it will be hard to replace Brandon's glove on the field and bat in the lineup with a prospect + 11 mil in salary relief. Signing Phillips would puts the best team on the field. I hope he stays.

Kc61
04-02-2012, 06:27 PM
I think it will be hard to replace Brandon's glove on the field and bat in the lineup with a prospect + 11 mil in salary relief. Signing Phillips would puts the best team on the field. I hope he stays.

I agree, nice post. How many middle infielders can supply the combination of power and defense Brandon provides? Few. They won't be easy to come by.

If Brandon has an interest in staying, which he seems to, the Reds need to make every effort to figure it out.

I've often thought that the Big Red Machine was so great because it got so much offense from positions like second base and catcher. Few teams get top offense from these spots.

Even at age 32-35, I think it would be hard to improve upon BP.

Love to see him stay.

mattfeet
04-02-2012, 06:34 PM
Is that being reported or is it speculation?

Sorry, reported by Fay on twitter.

Matt

Boss-Hog
04-02-2012, 06:55 PM
Thanks for the clarification...I thought I had read that somewhere earlier today.

Plus Plus
04-02-2012, 07:04 PM
deleted

Reds Fanatic
04-02-2012, 07:18 PM
From John Fay's twitter:

Phillips: "I just want to play baseball." Will still talk about a contract? "I just want to play baseball."

http://twitter.com/#!/johnfayman

reds44
04-02-2012, 07:19 PM
I think everyone would agree they would love Brandon the player back, but I just don't see where the money would come from.

AtomicDumpling
04-02-2012, 07:27 PM
I think the Reds can afford to keep both. The team is massively profitable. I am not sure if it would be wise to give Phillips a big new contract, but the team does have the revenue to make it happen if they want to. It is just a matter of how much the owner wants to spend and how much he wants to add to his fortune.

MikeS21
04-02-2012, 07:49 PM
I think the Reds can afford to keep both. The team is massively profitable. I am not sure if it would be wise to give Phillips a big new contract, but the team does have the revenue to make it happen if they want to. It is just a matter of how much the owner wants to spend and how much he wants to add to his fortune.
At some point, though, Castelinni has to start thinking about return on investment. It is going to be tough to take in the revenue to pay all these salaries.

It goes beyond building fan support. There are a LOT of excited, pumped up fans who simply cannot afford to go spend an evening at GAB. Right now, the Reds better hope they get a great radio deal because many, if not, most fans, are limited to following the team on free over-the-air radio.

And if the team has an off year - as most teams do - that will affect attendance in a negative way. Fans seem to abandon poorly playing teams quicker and easier than they do jumping on the bandwagon of teams that are hitting on all cylinders.

Spitball
04-02-2012, 08:58 PM
I am excited about the Votto deal. I am very hopeful for a deal with Phillips because he is the spirit of the franchise. But the city and area will have to embrace the team or the holes will be filled with low priced fodder in the future.

redsfan30
04-03-2012, 12:12 AM
Not sure why, but I suddenly have a feeling Bob ponies up and inks Brandon to a deal. I also have a feeling it gets done tomorrow. I think tomorrow night's Showcase game turns into a love-fest for Cincinnati's two favorite players and their sudden secure future in the city.

Nathan
04-03-2012, 01:43 AM
Nobody knows how much Castellini is willing to spend on the payroll the next several years. I'm under the impression that he's willing to open up the wallet so to speak for the right players (Re: Votto), and I believe I read recently that he wanted to extend both Votto and Phillips. I honestly don't see Phillips going anywhere any time soon.

AtomicDumpling
04-03-2012, 04:35 AM
At some point, though, Castelinni has to start thinking about return on investment. It is going to be tough to take in the revenue to pay all these salaries.

Hasn't BCast been thinking about return on investment ever since he bought the team? He has already made hundreds of millions of dollars on his investment in the Reds.

Baseball franchises are cash cows of historic proportions, which is why their values have continued to skyrocket even in a deep economic recession.

edabbs44
04-03-2012, 07:07 AM
Hasn't BCast been thinking about return on investment ever since he bought the team? He has already made hundreds of millions of dollars on his investment in the Reds.

Baseball franchises are cash cows of historic proportions, which is why their values have continued to skyrocket even in a deep economic recession.

How do you figure that Bob has already made hundreds of millions on his investment?

MikeS21
04-03-2012, 08:35 AM
How do you figure that Bob has already made hundreds of millions on his investment?
Yeah, I have the same question.

There is a break-even point where the team payroll (not counting any of the other operational expenses like coaching salaries, front office salaries, scouting and development costs, stadium expenses, etc.) will not be covered by ticket sales, concessions, or media contracts. Cincinnati is not New York. The local market or economy simply will not support the team once that break even point is reached.

I have no idea what that break even point is, but if I were guessing, I would say for the small market economy that Cincinnati is, that break-even point is probably around $85 million.

BobCast may not be hurting for money, but Castellini has investors who aren't as flexible to take a 3-4 years of losing money in order to build a fan base. And honestly, how is it a good thing that the owners have to lose money in order to win?

dougdirt
04-03-2012, 08:45 AM
I have no idea what that break even point is, but if I were guessing, I would say for the small market economy that Cincinnati is, that break-even point is probably around $85 million.

BobCast may not be hurting for money, but Castellini has investors who aren't as flexible to take a 3-4 years of losing money in order to build a fan base. And honestly, how is it a good thing that the owners have to lose money in order to win?

I am betting that at least for right now, that breaking point is probably in the $95-100M range.

But the owners can afford to lose a little bit each year as long as they have a plan to sell the franchise in the future, where they will reap big benefits from the sale of the team. It doesn't happen too often I would imagine, because what business wants to lose money in the short term when they don't have to?

wolfboy
04-03-2012, 08:58 AM
BobCast may not be hurting for money, but Castellini has investors who aren't as flexible to take a 3-4 years of losing money in order to build a fan base.

Just curious, but where did you hear/read this?

berryluther
04-03-2012, 09:31 AM
The problem with an extension at this point you will be paying premium money to someone whose skills will begin to decline in a few years. If I was Jocketty I would be listening to offers for BP all year with a young power hitting outfielder as the return. We have several fill ins for BP this year and I am all but sure that Hamilton in '13 is the target.

mattfeet
04-03-2012, 09:32 AM
Brandon Phillips for Giancarlo Stanton

RedlegJake
04-03-2012, 09:36 AM
I think the Reds can keep BP and probably will if they can get the years right. I think they want him but don't want a large commitment in the "long tooth years" ie 36-38, so if a 4-5 year deal can get it done I think it will, plus I really think the years matter more than the dollars to a point. If a deal doesn't get done I'd expect a trade very soon or soon after the break before the deadline hits.

dougdirt
04-03-2012, 09:44 AM
Brandon Phillips for Giancarlo Stanton

That has about as much of a chance at happening as Miguel Cairo for Roy Halladay.

dougdirt
04-03-2012, 09:46 AM
I think the Reds can keep BP and probably will if they can get the years right. I think they want him but don't want a large commitment in the "long tooth years" ie 36-38, so if a 4-5 year deal can get it done I think it will, plus I really think the years matter more than the dollars to a point. If a deal doesn't get done I'd expect a trade very soon or soon after the break before the deadline hits.

I think 95% of us are expecting the Reds to be good this season. If we are all correct, why would the Reds trade a key part of their roster? If the Reds are even close to good, Phillips isn't getting traded. Let's remember that Castellini wouldn't even sign off on trading Ramon Hernandez last year because he thought we were still in it.

IslandRed
04-03-2012, 10:23 AM
Yep. I know we like to think that letting a good player walk and just getting draft picks (I assume the Reds would tender the offer to Phillips as required with the new rules) is a fate worse than death, but it's part of the cost of doing business for teams that are actually trying in the here and now.

mattfeet
04-03-2012, 11:14 AM
That has about as much of a chance at happening as Miguel Cairo for Roy Halladay.

Well, the Phillies do need infield help, so...:lol:

Brutus
04-03-2012, 12:36 PM
Per Jim Duquette on Twitter, it's "50-50" as to whether the Reds work out an extension with Phillips. He says they're talking.

cincrazy
04-03-2012, 12:40 PM
That has about as much of a chance at happening as Miguel Cairo for Roy Halladay.

So you're saying there's a chance we can get Halladay?

Kc61
04-03-2012, 02:03 PM
I think the Reds can keep BP and probably will if they can get the years right. I think they want him but don't want a large commitment in the "long tooth years" ie 36-38, so if a 4-5 year deal can get it done I think it will, plus I really think the years matter more than the dollars to a point. If a deal doesn't get done I'd expect a trade very soon or soon after the break before the deadline hits.

Guessing the Reds won't go five years for BP. In fact, I'm guessing they are offering him a rich contract, but for three years. Probably would go four to get deal done eventually.

Just have a feeling Reds see Billy Hamilton as their middle infielder of the future. I know he's raw, but very high on the athleticism chart, and potentially a dynamic player.

Still optimistic about BP though, because he'll be 32 in the summer of 2013 and I'm not sure he will draw very long term offers on the FA market. He may figure that the Reds offer (if they go four) approximates market value.

fearofpopvol1
04-03-2012, 02:10 PM
If the money was reasonable, I would go 4 years on BP without blinking. I don't see any chance he goes 3 years. 5 years is tricky for me. I would do 5 years if he would take a bit less. I don't know what a reasonable and fair expectation would be on the salary. Maybe 4 years, $50M? Or 5 years, $55M.

But further, BP isn't dumb. He knows the Reds just ponied up $22M a year for Votto until the end of his career. I don't think he expects similar money, but I'm sure he's also not going to suddenly give a discount now either.

redsmetz
04-03-2012, 04:14 PM
If the money was reasonable, I would go 4 years on BP without blinking. I don't see any chance he goes 3 years. 5 years is tricky for me. I would do 5 years if he would take a bit less. I don't know what a reasonable and fair expectation would be on the salary. Maybe 4 years, $50M? Or 5 years, $55M.

But further, BP isn't dumb. He knows the Reds just ponied up $22M a year for Votto until the end of his career. I don't think he expects similar money, but I'm sure he's also not going to suddenly give a discount now either.

Others mentioned there being a couple of other second sackers on the market next year. Maybe he takes a year or two extension to have a more advantageous market when he's a free agent? Not sure I want that, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Nathan
04-03-2012, 04:27 PM
Others mentioned there being a couple of other second sackers on the market next year. Maybe he takes a year or two extension to have a more advantageous market when he's a free agent? Not sure I want that, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

He will be the best 2B on the market. Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano can possibly be free agents, but, they have options for next year, and I'd expect both of them to be picked up. (Kinsler 10MM, and Cano 15MM). Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if both of them are extended. After that, it's BP, and really not much else.


Jeff Baker (32)
Robinson Cano (30) - $15MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Bill Hall (33)
Orlando Hudson (35) - $8MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Maicer Izturis (32)
Kelly Johnson (31)
Adam Kennedy (37)
Jeff Keppinger (33)
Ian Kinsler (31) - $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jose Lopez (29)
Brandon Phillips (32)
Freddy Sanchez (35)
Ryan Theriot (33)

Benihana
04-03-2012, 04:50 PM
Personally, I would not go more than three years (after 2012) with Phillips.

By 2015, we're going to need that money for pitching (ie Latos, Leake, Cueto, and/or someone outside of the organization).

AmarilloRed
04-03-2012, 05:45 PM
I'd go as far as 3 years, with a club option for a 4th year. I don't think the money is the big problem, I think number of years will be the cause of Brandon entering FA.

Sea Ray
04-03-2012, 05:49 PM
Personally, I would not go more than three years (after 2012) with Phillips.

By 2015, we're going to need that money for pitching (ie Latos, Leake, Cueto, and/or someone outside of the organization).

I agree. I'm amazed at all the fans who want to offer him more. I'd go 2 or 3 yrs and tell him if he wants a career deal then this isn't the place for him. We just don't have the resources to offer him such a contract.

Blitz Dorsey
04-03-2012, 11:12 PM
This coming from a BP fan ... the Reds are playing this one exactly right.

If BP is down for re-signing at 4-years, $50 million, let's do it. If not, cool.

redsfan30
04-04-2012, 09:52 AM
Watching him play last night (prisoner of the moment alert!) I was left with one impression...

We need him...

Pay the man...

MartyFan
04-04-2012, 10:11 AM
For whatever reason, I am not convinced the Reds will re-up Brandon Phillips. Not for a long time like BP wants but for maybe 4 years...Both he and Votto get their Gold Gloves and BP gets the Silver Slugger award too before the game Saturday....I just have a hunch, a gut feeling...not a wish...that the Reds are going to make these announcements during this time.

Vottomatic
04-04-2012, 04:11 PM
I love BP. I want him back. But not at $15M per year. He'll turn 31 in June.

I'd go 4 years $48 to $50M and maybe a mutual option for the 5th and 6th year. That way either he or the team can decline, and maybe if he's 80% of what he was, he'll play for an amount on par with his age and slightly declining skills at that point so he can be a career Red.

We have Latos, Cueto, Leake, Marshall signed through 2015, I believe. Bruce too. Not sure about Chapman.