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View Full Version : Jay Bruce to win the NL HR title?



RedsManRick
04-03-2012, 06:08 PM
Cousin Sal, of the Jimmy Kimmel Show and Bill Simmons' podcast fame, has just released his MLB gambling column on Grantland.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/22740/cousin-sals-gambling-blog-mlb-edition

His cover boy is none other than Jay Bruce. Apparently the odds on Bruce taking home the NL HR title are 20 to 1. If that's true, you have the like those odds.

Bruce finished 8th in the NL last year with 32. 2 of the 7 guys ahead of him are in the AL this year (Fielder, Pujols) and 1 is injured (Howard). That leaves Kemp, Uggla, Stanton and Braun. Close behind him last year you had Justin Upton and Michael Morse. I'd personally have Stanton, Bruce and Upton on my short list -- they seem the most likely to push 40 HR.

klw
04-03-2012, 09:12 PM
Well Bruce is currently tied for the NL lead and is only 1 behind the MLB lead.

Ghosts of 1990
04-04-2012, 12:41 AM
30/1 odds here

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/mlb-baseball-player-props.jsp

I don't think he hits more than 35

RedlegJake
04-04-2012, 01:14 AM
If I was betting over/under on 35 homers for Jay in Vegas I'd take over this season. Honestly I'd hesitate but I'd put the money on the over side if I had to make the bet. If the number was 40 hey I'd take the under but I'd hope to lose anyway.

membengal
04-04-2012, 07:25 AM
Worth a flier, but hard to look past anyone but Stanton in Miami.

dougdirt
04-04-2012, 09:14 AM
Worth a flier, but hard to look past anyone but Stanton in Miami.

It will be interesting to see how that park plays. He has the power to hit them out of anywhere, but even someone like him can gain or lose 5 home runs depending on how that place plays.

MikeS21
04-04-2012, 11:42 AM
If Bruce hits 35-40 HR's, the Reds need to extend him like they did Votto! ;)

gonelong
04-04-2012, 11:48 AM
Saw something recently on the projections for which players would add significant numbers this year. IIRC, Bruce was top of the list for NL HRs and #2 or #3 in RBI.

GL

MikeS21
04-04-2012, 12:17 PM
I do seriously wonder sometimes. For all the attention and talent that Votto has, does Jay Bruce have the talent and potential to surpass even Votto? I keep thinking about the fact that Bruce only turned 25 years old yesterday. JB seems like he has been around forever, but the scary truth is, he's not even hit his stride yet. How good will Bruce be when he hits Votto's age?

RedsManRick
04-04-2012, 02:24 PM
Votto/Bruce reminds me a lot of Dunn/Kearns. The complete hitter vs. the power bat. The first round pick vs. the second round pick. Hopefully this time both guys pan out. Jay better avoid fat relief pitchers covering home plate.

Ghosts of 1990
04-04-2012, 02:44 PM
I do seriously wonder sometimes. For all the attention and talent that Votto has, does Jay Bruce have the talent and potential to surpass even Votto? I keep thinking about the fact that Bruce only turned 25 years old yesterday. JB seems like he has been around forever, but the scary truth is, he's not even hit his stride yet. How good will Bruce be when he hits Votto's age?

I think it's a matter of approach rather than age. Votto is just something other worldly in that department that Jay will never have. He'll never be able to toy with a pitcher and foul off pitches again and again until he gets something over the middle he drives out; at least not to the degree that Votto can do it when he needs to and wants to and every now and then Jay has a great at bat or when he's really going good he strings together a few great at-bats.


Votto/Bruce reminds me a lot of Dunn/Kearns. The complete hitter vs. the power bat. The first round pick vs. the second round pick. Hopefully this time both guys pan out. Jay better avoid fat relief pitchers covering home plate.

I get what you're saying. But Bruce is already probably one of the top 50 all around players in the game. We're in a better situation now, because both of these guys are better than both of those guys were. But I get what you're saying.

OnBaseMachine
04-04-2012, 02:51 PM
David Laurila predicts Jay Bruce to win the 2012 NL MVP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-staff-predicts-2012/

MikeS21
04-04-2012, 03:50 PM
I think it's a matter of approach rather than age. Votto is just something other worldly in that department that Jay will never have. He'll never be able to toy with a pitcher and foul off pitches again and again until he gets something over the middle he drives out; at least not to the degree that Votto can do it when he needs to and wants to and every now and then Jay has a great at bat or when he's really going good he strings together a few great at-bats.
Right now, I'd agree with you. But Bruce's approach has improved since he came up, and as he continues to improve, it's hard to project where he might be 2-3 years down the road. He still has some room to grow.

I see the same poor AB's from JB that you do. At times he simply looks overmatched and doesn't know which end of the bat he's swinging from. That's when I am reminded that we're not talking about a 28 year old in his prime. The kid just has turned 25. And to be 100% fair, at times Joey Votto looks lost at the plate. It will be interesting in a couple years when Bruce has peaked. And it will be fun to have Votto and Bruce both in their prime.

RedsManRick probably nailed it when he compared them to Dunn and Kearns. They are two different animals.

Roy Tucker
04-04-2012, 03:59 PM
I think Votto is a bit of an overachiever. One of his strong points is his mental discipline. He just never takes ABs off. He concentrates on each and every pitch. When he looks lost, its only for a pitch or two. He has great talent but his approach is what takes him to MVP-level.

Bruce is a little bit more of a natural and relies more on his hands and his eyes. Don't get me wrong, he works hard, but his approach can wander a bit.

RedsManRick
04-04-2012, 06:17 PM
I get what you're saying. But Bruce is already probably one of the top 50 all around players in the game. We're in a better situation now, because both of these guys are better than both of those guys were. But I get what you're saying.

I know you didn't mean your comment this way, but last year Bruce was tied with Emilio Bonifacio for 107th in WAR among position players. Across 2010 & 2011, he comes in 52nd. I think it's fair to say that, in broad strokes, Bruce has not yet lived up to the hype he came up with. There certainly probably aren't 50 players I'd take ahead of him if I were drafting a team from scratch, but whether or not he reaches his significant potential remains to be seen.

dougdirt
04-04-2012, 08:14 PM
Jay Bruce has better power than Joey Votto does, but that is about where it ends offensively. Votto gets the strikezone a little bit better than Jay does, though I don't think the K/BB numbers show that it is as close as it actually is because Joey is able to battle off pitches a little better and can in turn work a few extra walks here and there that wind up adding up. I think that we have seen the peak of what Joey Votto can do offensively. I don't think we have come close to seeing what Bruce is capable of. I still see Bruce having a .300/.380/.600 season in his future. If he can tighten up his approach just a little bit (which in turn should cut his strikeout rate by 10-20 and add a few additional walks), Bruce will find himself among the elite hitters in the National League.

Captain Hook
04-05-2012, 08:29 PM
So far so good.

Jay Bruce 1 Rest of the N.L. 0

corkedbat
04-05-2012, 10:17 PM
On track for 162.

VR
04-05-2012, 11:21 PM
What a monster shot today.....almost identical to the biggest HR of his career.

Ghosts of 1990
04-06-2012, 11:27 AM
Bruce like Mujica.... Brucey like Mujica A-LOT

dougdirt
04-06-2012, 02:26 PM
440 feet on yesterdays blast - http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2012_8&type=hitter

kaldaniels
04-06-2012, 03:37 PM
440 feet on yesterdays blast - http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2012_8&type=hitter

What a beaut. There are not gonna be many home runs that look that good on the chart this year.

elfmanvt07
04-06-2012, 03:43 PM
Everyone always comments on how Votto chokes up after two strikes, but I think this small change would help Jay more than it does Joey. Jay's approach after two strikes is his biggest weak spot, in my book.

dougdirt
04-08-2012, 05:30 PM
So far, so good.

RedsManRick
04-08-2012, 05:49 PM
Bruce only had two homers left of center last year. Good to see him going oppo already.

dougdirt
04-08-2012, 05:52 PM
Bruce only had two homers left of center last year. Good to see him going oppo already.

And to be honest, the swing looked really good too. I know that last year, the few times he went the other way at all, it almost seemed as if it were on accident and he just flared it that way. He stayed with this one.

mattfeet
04-08-2012, 06:18 PM
Still on pace for 162. lol

reds44
04-08-2012, 06:20 PM
When is Bruce going to start hitting?

Ghosts of 1990
04-08-2012, 06:24 PM
LONNNNNG ways to go. But he's never started this well. With him when he's using the whole field as he has the last two days against Heath Bell

OldRightHander
04-08-2012, 06:27 PM
With the 9th inning HR, I was almost tempted to rewind to make sure that wasn't Votto up there. I can't recall the last time I saw him stay in and drive one the other way like that.

lollipopcurve
04-08-2012, 06:40 PM
Bruce looks the best he ever has, IMO. He's staying back, not trying to jerk stuff, and going up the middle and to the left side much more. You'd see flashes of it in the past, but he could not sustain it. I think he's got a good chance of doing that now. He's taken a new approach to being a professional, and it's taking his game to the next level.

The steps forward by Bruce and Chapman are very, very encouraging for the franchise.

Ghosts of 1990
04-08-2012, 09:35 PM
If he continues to use the entire field--and I noticed he attempted to last night against Heath Bell also and just missed a similar result to today's bomb; he will end up putting all of baseball on notice. Sky will be the limit.

powersackers
04-08-2012, 10:17 PM
His swing is such a thing of beauty; his approach needs to stay the same as it is right now. If he slumps any he shouldn't change anything and get his head messed up. Doing so will relieve some of the streakiness we've seen.