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Reds1
04-05-2012, 09:36 AM
I don't have time to research, but a good friend of mine who is well connected to reds news just texted me and said Jockety said they are close to signing BP. What's going on folks. If this happens they are sure trying to make a big statement.

Again, this is just a text, but I am getting ready to leave to cincy, but wnted to see if anyone can confirm.

Go Reds

klw
04-05-2012, 09:48 AM
From Jim Duquette:
https://twitter.com/#!/Jim_Duquette


Jim Duquette ‏ @Jim_Duquette
Am hearing @Reds are offering 4 years to B Phillips. With Kinsler likely to get 6 yrs from Texas- Phillips can't sign for less than 5

dougdirt
04-05-2012, 09:50 AM
I am not a big fan of four years for Phillips, but think I would take it given it isn't more than $12M a year. Anything more than that, in both years or salary, is a large overpay in my opinion.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 09:54 AM
4yr $50MM is fair to me.

Kc61
04-05-2012, 09:58 AM
4yr $50MM is fair to me.

Four years extended onto the 2012 contract. Plus a team option for an extra year with a buyout clause if team doesn't exercise.

That would be my max.

WildcatFan
04-05-2012, 10:01 AM
What about a five-year, front-loaded contract that takes advantage of Votto taking a pay cut after next season? Complement their contracts to ease the burden.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 10:02 AM
What about a five-year, front-loaded contract that takes advantage of Votto taking a pay cut after next season? Complement their contracts to ease the burden.

Not a bad deal, but that will still end up being more expensive in the long run. That said, it would fit into the budget much easier while Votto is still relatively cheap. In this instance, I would approve of a front-loaded deal.

-Matt

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 10:18 AM
This signing would also line up with Jocketty's comment that the BP situation will be resolved "one way or another" prior to Opening Day".

-Matt

Johnny Footstool
04-05-2012, 10:39 AM
What about a five-year, front-loaded contract that takes advantage of Votto taking a pay cut after next season? Complement their contracts to ease the burden.

I'm a big fan of front-loaded contracts, but the players' union apparently isn't.

AmarilloRed
04-05-2012, 10:39 AM
Ken Rosenthal said the Reds and Brandon are apart in both money and years-he doesn't expect anything to be done soon.

RedsManRick
04-05-2012, 10:59 AM
If BP's deal doesn't get done before Kinsler's, I don't think he signs.

Tony Cloninger
04-05-2012, 11:03 AM
I'm a big fan of front-loaded contracts, but the players' union apparently isn't.

Why would the union even care .....if the money is the same....who ares when it is paid and in what year. Is this union really full of this many idiots and A retentive people? If the player agrees to this way, what could they say anyways?

WildcatFan
04-05-2012, 11:37 AM
I'm a big fan of front-loaded contracts, but the players' union apparently isn't.

Such a strange phenomenon. The only explanation I can think of is at the end of the contracts when the players are making 7-9 million, it could lessen their next contract. A 35-year-old BP making $14 million will command more money than a 35-year-old BP making $8 million, I guess.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 11:47 AM
Has anyone else heard anything about this? Twitter has been silent on the matter in the past few hours.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 11:53 AM
It’s Opening Day in Cincinnati and the fans are out in full force. Among the hordes of Reds faithful is team owner Bob Castellini, who was just interviewed on 700 WLW at the Holy Grail downtown. Castellini had the following to say about Brandon Phillips, quoted from Lance McAllister’s Twitter feed...

On Brandon Phillips: “He’s an All-Star a Gold Glover, he’s versatile, he’s very important to keep here”

On Phillips contract talks: “That dialogue is ongoing”

Sea Ray
04-05-2012, 11:55 AM
If BP's deal doesn't get done before Kinsler's, I don't think he signs.

If he wants to base his contract on Kinsler's... bye, bye. I'd ask him, do you want to get rich or do you want to be a Cin Red? If money's that important to you, fine but don't leave here saying that we didn't want you back.

medford
04-05-2012, 12:28 PM
Walt on 700wlw regarding resigning BP:

"talks are ongoing"

a question or 2 later:

"We're close. We hope to have something done in a week or so"

That last part seems to be more than just "GM speak"

CySeymour
04-05-2012, 12:30 PM
If he wants to base his contract on Kinsler's... bye, bye. I'd ask him, do you want to get rich or do you want to be a Cin Red? If money's that important to you, fine but don't leave here saying that we didn't want you back.

For the record, I've hard Marty say the same thing, and apparently he said as much to DatDude.

_Sir_Charles_
04-05-2012, 12:38 PM
Walt on 700wlw regarding resigning BP:

"talks are ongoing"

a question or 2 later:

"We're close. We hope to have something done in a week or so"

That last part seems to be more than just "GM speak"

Sounds good. I like it.

Caveat Emperor
04-05-2012, 12:41 PM
My head tells me that a 4-5 year deal for Phillips is a terrible baseball decision, and that he's never going to produce value consistent with the dollars being paid.

The pure fan in me, though, get giddy at the thought of a new set of statues -- Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Mesoraco -- being put up somewhere else around the ballpark to commemorate the "New" Red Machine.

That's why fans make horrible GMs, I guess.

corkedbat
04-05-2012, 12:45 PM
My head tells me that a 4-5 year deal for Phillips is a terrible baseball decision, and that he's never going to produce value consistent with the dollars being paid.

The pure fan in me, though, get giddy at the thought of a new set of statues -- Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Mesoraco -- being put up somewhere else around the ballpark to commemorate the "New" Red Machine.

That's why fans make horrible GMs, I guess.


Anything over $12M a year is a very bad idea (and I'm not crazy about $12M per).

Caveat Emperor
04-05-2012, 12:48 PM
Anything over $12M a year is a very bad idea (and I'm not crazy about $12M per).

It's tough to judge without knowing ownership's long-term budgeting plans. If the budget is going to stay the same -- $75-$85M per year -- then this kind of contract would be awful.

If the budget is pushing to $100-$110M per year, then it becomes a lot easier to see this kind of deal being done.

Phillips is going to underperform any deal he signs, so just about every one of these deals is "bad" for the team in a pure value sense. The question is how far into the red are you willing to go to guarantee a certain level of production.

edabbs44
04-05-2012, 12:58 PM
My head tells me that a 4-5 year deal for Phillips is a terrible baseball decision, and that he's never going to produce value consistent with the dollars being paid.

The pure fan in me, though, get giddy at the thought of a new set of statues -- Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Mesoraco -- being put up somewhere else around the ballpark to commemorate the "New" Red Machine.

That's why fans make horrible GMs, I guess.

The second part, though, is what helps fund these salaries.

klw
04-05-2012, 01:13 PM
What is the market for BP if he leaves in free agency?

Boston has Pedroia
NYY has Cano for at least 2013
Texas will likely have Kinsler wrapped up
Phils have Utley signed through 13
Angels have Kendrick signed through 2015
Atlanta (dat dude's hometown)- has Uggla for awhile but could move him to the outfield I guess.

Possible destinations:
St Louis- that would be interesting
Chicago- either team
Toronto- Kelly Johnson signed through this year
Florida- will they continue the money spending
Baltimore- I have no idea who they have at 2nd
Mets- they will start spending again
Doodgers-Mark Ellis is there on a 1 year deal
Arizona- has Aaron Hill signed through 2013
Houston- pretty well set at every position (sarcasm alert) but will probably start spending again at some point.

fearofpopvol1
04-05-2012, 01:27 PM
I for one would be totally fine with a 4 year extension. Somewhere in the $48-50M range. I would even go 5 years if he would be willing to take less money (say $55M). I would not go more than 5 years though unless he offered an insane discount.

Also, I'm pretty sure if an extension similar to what I described above goes through, he will have 10/5 rights toward the end of the contract.

LoganBuck
04-05-2012, 01:29 PM
What is the market for BP if he leaves in free agency?

Boston has Pedroia
NYY has Cano for at least 2013
Texas will likely have Kinsler wrapped up
Phils have Utley signed through 13
Angels have Kendrick signed through 2015
Atlanta (dat dude's hometown)- has Uggla for awhile but could move him to the outfield I guess.

Possible destinations:
St Louis- that would be interesting
Chicago- either team
Toronto- Kelly Johnson signed through this year
Florida- will they continue the money spending
Baltimore- I have no idea who they have at 2nd
Mets- they will start spending again
Doodgers-Mark Ellis is there on a 1 year deal
Arizona- has Aaron Hill signed through 2013
Houston- pretty well set at every position (sarcasm alert) but will probably start spending again at some point.

I wouldn't count out two on your first list. I don't think Utley's contract would stop the Phillies, and if he doesn't get some relief for his knees, he may retire beforehand. Also Chipper Jones is done. Uggla may be sent to third if Phillips were available. Uggla came up as a 3B, but was moved in Florida.

All of your second list makes sense.

Kc61
04-05-2012, 02:23 PM
In the later years of his contract Phillips could move to another position and still be valuable.

Third base?

kaldaniels
04-05-2012, 02:26 PM
I think 12 million per is too low if we are predicting things. I'd prepare to be disappointed if you think that's what he will sign for.

Patrick Bateman
04-05-2012, 02:28 PM
I think 12 million per is too low if we are predicting things. I'd prepare to be disappointed if you think that's what he will sign for.

Agreed.

His current market value is probably about 5 years 14M per.... I think that's what someone would give him when he hits the open market.

I don't think the Reds should give it to him, I don't think he should accept much less.

I just don't think it's a fit for either side.

fisch11
04-05-2012, 02:33 PM
Enquirer:

Jocketty said he met with Phillips on Tuesday.

“I feel confident,” Jocketty said. “I had a nice long discussion with him. We’re moving in the right direction. He wants to stay here. It’s our goal and his goal. It’s something on the front burner.”

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120404/SPT04/304040098/It-s-official-Votto-inks-long-term-contract-extension?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Reds

kaldaniels
04-05-2012, 02:42 PM
Enquirer:

Jocketty said he met with Phillips on Tuesday.

I feel confident, Jocketty said. I had a nice long discussion with him. Were moving in the right direction. He wants to stay here. Its our goal and his goal. Its something on the front burner.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120404/SPT04/304040098/It-s-official-Votto-inks-long-term-contract-extension?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Reds

Girlfriend sighting in that link.

medford
04-05-2012, 02:58 PM
Girlfriend sighting in that link.

Shhhhh!!!! Don't tell Heather :)

On another note, found it intresting that Bob & Walt are in suits, Joey's dressed to kill and Dusty is wearing his uniform. Seems strange and ohhh so baseball.

lollipopcurve
04-05-2012, 02:58 PM
My guess is that a Phillips deal will have some deferred $$$.

I'm going to say this is clearly the best ownership group the Reds have had in a long time. They want to win. Fans need to get out there and respond!

757690
04-05-2012, 03:05 PM
Girlfriend sighting in that link.

She must like fancy coffee and expensive shirts too. ;)

And I'm sure Heather is thinking "Meh, he could do better."

HeatherC1212
04-05-2012, 03:08 PM
Enquirer:

Jocketty said he met with Phillips on Tuesday.

I feel confident, Jocketty said. I had a nice long discussion with him. Were moving in the right direction. He wants to stay here. Its our goal and his goal. Its something on the front burner.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120404/SPT04/304040098/It-s-official-Votto-inks-long-term-contract-extension?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Reds


Shhhhh!!!! Don't tell Heather :)

On another note, found it intresting that Bob & Walt are in suits, Joey's dressed to kill and Dusty is wearing his uniform. Seems strange and ohhh so baseball.

Joey looked extremely fine in that suit. :thumbup:

BTW-I've been aware that Joey has a girlfriend for quite some time (I think they've been together for something like five years now). She's apparently very sweet (a friend of mine knows her) and I'm glad he's happy. I cracked up at his comment yesterday about making long term commitments, LOL :laugh: (And him having a girlfriend does not keep me from being a fangirl! :p)

Hope they get a BP deal done soon. :)

fearofpopvol1
04-05-2012, 03:12 PM
The one thing I don't think any of us can deny is that it's awesome how much BP loves Cincinnati and wants to stay here. And from what I can recall, he's always felt that way, even at the beginning.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 03:13 PM
The one thing I don't think any of us can deny is that it's awesome how much BP loves Cincinnati and wants to stay here. And from what I can recall, he's always felt that way, even at the beginning.

Id love Cincinnati and be forever indebted if it got me out of Cleveland. :beerme:

cinreds21
04-05-2012, 03:15 PM
I'm not a fan of this for some reason. It really wastes a talented minor league system full of middle infield prospects in Hamilton, Gregorious and Rodriguez.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 03:17 PM
I'm not a fan of this for some reason. It really wastes a talented minor league system full of middle infield prospects in Hamilton, Gregorious and Rodriguez.

I don't disagree, but for the next 3 years, BP is STILL the best of the group for the Reds. Even if he regresses a good bit, he'll still be good. Gregorius reminds me of Hanley Ramirez, and Im REALLY looking forward to seeing him move through the system.

-Matt

cinreds21
04-05-2012, 03:21 PM
I don't disagree, but for the next 3 years, BP is STILL the best of the group for the Reds. Even if he regresses a good bit, he'll still be good. Gregorius reminds me of Hanley Ramirez, and Im REALLY looking forward to seeing him move through the system.

-Matt

That's the thing. With BP here for four plus years, you won't. They may get some time, yes, but they won't do anything huge in Cincinnati.

And I don't know about the Hanley comparison. Hanley brings power, speed and average where as Gregorious brings defense and average. Hanley is huge, while Didi is skinny.

757690
04-05-2012, 03:25 PM
In the later years of his contract Phillips could move to another position and still be valuable.

Third base?

2013 at second, then 2014-16 at third when H-Rod is ready to play second. Sounds like a plan.

Homer Bailey
04-05-2012, 03:28 PM
I'm not a fan of this for some reason. It really wastes a talented minor league system full of middle infield prospects in Hamilton, Gregorious and Rodriguez.

The talent isn't wasted just because they potentially don't have a place to play. If they truly progress, then can always be used as trading chips (see Grandal, Alonso).

reds44
04-05-2012, 03:37 PM
Phillips loves Cincinnati. I'd love to keep him, but honestly I'll be surprised if we do.

medford
04-05-2012, 03:38 PM
That's the thing. With BP here for four plus years, you won't. They may get some time, yes, but they won't do anything huge in Cincinnati.

And I don't know about the Hanley comparison. Hanley brings power, speed and average where as Gregorious brings defense and average. Hanley is huge, while Didi is skinny.

As nice as some of those prospects seem, at the end of the day, they're just prospects. How many prospects have turned into suspects after 1-2 seasons in the show? How many prospects never cut it above AA?

If you can sign Brandon to a reasonable contract for the next 4 seasons, you do so and worry about the prospects when they're slamming down the door. Brandon has proven that he can hit and field amongst the best of them in the majors, all Billy Hamilton has proven so far is that he can steal a lot of bases and hit low A pitching. At one time, Matt LaPorta was a can't miss prospect and some felt like the Brewers gave up way too much for half a season of CC Sabathia. In hindsight, LaPorta has accomplished litte in the majors while CC helped build a ton of goodwill among Milwaukee fans that has helped them generate 3.0+ millon attendance for several seasons running.

Raisor
04-05-2012, 03:52 PM
I like pretty flowers

reds44
04-05-2012, 04:43 PM
John Fay ‏ @johnfayman Reply Retweet Favorite Open
Jocketty told Marty, Brad Johansen that he's confident that Phillips deal will be done in a week. For Walt to say that, ink must be drying

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 04:48 PM
John Fay ‏ @johnfayman Reply Retweet Favorite Open
Jocketty told Marty, Brad Johansen that he's confident that Phillips deal will be done in a week. For Walt to say that, ink must be drying

Just came here to post this. :beerme:

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 04:52 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/reds-expect-to-extend-brandon-phillips.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

brad1176
04-05-2012, 05:05 PM
John Fay ‏ @johnfayman Reply Retweet Favorite Open
Jocketty told Marty, Brad Johansen that he's confident that Phillips deal will be done in a week. For Walt to say that, ink must be drying

Exactly, the contract must already be agreed upon. This is the most amazing Reds offseason I've ever seen! Now let's go get a WORLD SERIES!!!

Captain Hook
04-05-2012, 05:06 PM
Exactly, the contract must already be agreed upon. This is the most amazing Reds offseason I've ever seen! Now let's go get a WORLD SERIES OR TWO!!!

Fixed that for you.

brad1176
04-05-2012, 05:12 PM
Fixed that for you.

Thanks, I didn't want to seem too greedy! :laugh:

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 05:23 PM
I bet it's a 4-yr $56MM with a $12MM option for the 5th year.

-Matt

Vottomatic
04-05-2012, 07:15 PM
Now if they can only extend Rolen until he's 45 years old we'll be set!!!!! ;)

traderumor
04-05-2012, 07:44 PM
Doing Phillips' extension also makes me think they have some future revenue stream(s) in the works that are as yet unknown to the masses. I know there is some conjecture on a more generous TV deal, but its gonna take more than that and increased attendance to sustain this huge step forward the org. has taken in future obligations. Bob has limiteds that are signing off on this spending spree.

That, or some poor analyst is in big trouble five years from now :)

Tony Cloninger
04-05-2012, 07:48 PM
Doing Phillips' extension also makes me think they have some future revenue stream(s) in the works that are as yet unknown to the masses. I know there is some conjecture on a more generous TV deal, but its gonna take more than that and increased attendance to sustain this huge step forward the org. has taken in future obligations. Bob has limiteds that are signing off on this spending spree.

That, or some poor analyst is in big trouble five years from now :)


I hope it's not investing in student loans. We know Bernie is in jail so it cannot be some high yield return in investment scam.

klw
04-05-2012, 07:55 PM
Doing Phillips' extension also makes me think they have some future revenue stream(s) in the works that are as yet unknown to the masses. I know there is some conjecture on a more generous TV deal, but its gonna take more than that and increased attendance to sustain this huge step forward the org. has taken in future obligations. Bob has limiteds that are signing off on this spending spree.

That, or some poor analyst is in big trouble five years from now :)

They are hiring Vince to sell Reds merchandise in ads and at home games
DJ Steve Porter featuring Vince Offer - "Slap Chop Rap" - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWRyj5cHIQA)

BCubb2003
04-05-2012, 08:14 PM
I hope it's not investing in student loans. We know Bernie is in jail so it cannot be some high yield return in investment scam.

Strip mining the hills for Unobtainium.

_Sir_Charles_
04-05-2012, 08:22 PM
ESPN's Jim Bowden hears that the Reds offered Phillips a five-year deal in the "neighborhood" of $62.5-65MM (Twitter link). That is just north of Dan Uggla's five-year, $62MM contract with the Braves.

Wow. That's a nice get for Phillips if true.

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 08:22 PM
5yr $62-65MM offer on the table from a Reds' insider. Reported on Twitter by Jim Bowden.

_Sir_Charles_
04-05-2012, 08:23 PM
Slow poke. :O)

mattfeet
04-05-2012, 08:23 PM
Slow poke. :O)

:lol: nice work, sir :beerme:

AmarilloRed
04-05-2012, 08:56 PM
Bowden hasn't been proved reliable on the things he's said about Brandon before-I'll take it with a grain of salt. Last time, he said Brandon would sign in a week's time and it didn't happen. I put more credence in that Walt said he would sign in a week.

RedEye
04-05-2012, 08:58 PM
Goodness. I'm starting to feel like Walt and Bob are like Thelma and Louise...

http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&biw=1141&bih=607&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=7k07P00oBBKdSM:&imgrefurl=http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2703741/posts&docid=Cp0qR5ef0sFkhM&imgurl=http://www.digitalmedia-world.com/images/stories/Oct-10/Asylum-thelma-louise3.jpg&w=900&h=506&ei=iz9-T9rzMYe69QTWyLWwDg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=81&vpy=156&dur=1312&hovh=168&hovw=300&tx=180&ty=68&sig=107635398240555149707&page=1&tbnh=102&tbnw=181&start=0&ndsp=17&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:69

Matt700wlw
04-05-2012, 08:59 PM
Walt on 700wlw regarding resigning BP:

"talks are ongoing"

a question or 2 later:

"We're close. We hope to have something done in a week or so"

That last part seems to be more than just "GM speak"

Agreed. I had it on in the background finishing up some work, and this caught my ear.

Walt doesn't usually say much...but when he says something, pay attention.

kaldaniels
04-05-2012, 09:04 PM
Goodness. I'm starting to feel like Walt and Bob are like Thelma and Louise...

http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&biw=1141&bih=607&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=7k07P00oBBKdSM:&imgrefurl=http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2703741/posts&docid=Cp0qR5ef0sFkhM&imgurl=http://www.digitalmedia-world.com/images/stories/Oct-10/Asylum-thelma-louise3.jpg&w=900&h=506&ei=iz9-T9rzMYe69QTWyLWwDg&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=81&vpy=156&dur=1312&hovh=168&hovw=300&tx=180&ty=68&sig=107635398240555149707&page=1&tbnh=102&tbnw=181&start=0&ndsp=17&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:69

Without being cruel, I have to admit I wondered if Bob and Walt plan on being alive during the final years of the Votto deal. ;)

BoydsOfSummer
04-05-2012, 09:08 PM
Maybe they are buying in on the world ending on 12/21.

BCubb2003
04-05-2012, 09:10 PM
Maybe they are buying in on the world ending on 12/21.

Yes, it will be a heck of an October.

LegallyMinded
04-05-2012, 09:41 PM
If he wants to base his contract on Kinsler's... bye, bye. I'd ask him, do you want to get rich or do you want to be a Cin Red? If money's that important to you, fine but don't leave here saying that we didn't want you back.

In terms of comparing contracts, just a few numbers to consider: Over the last 5 seasons, we have. . . .


Kinsler .273/.357/.471 23.3WAR
Phillips .280/.332/.453 22.0WAR
Uggla .253/.344/.482 17.5WAR

The rumor for Kinsler's deal is 5 years, 80 million, and Uggla took home 5 years, 62 million. From that perspective, 5 years, 65 million looks like a pretty good deal for Phillips. Now, he is one year older than Kinsler, and a lot of his value comes from his defense, so you might expect his value to decline pretty steeply if he loses a step in the field. Then again, looking at Rolen the last couple years, it seems like a quality defender can remain a quality defender even while battling age and injury. Overall, the rumored deal sounds much better than I initially thought; it's still a year longer than I would have gone, but it seems like 5 years is what it takes to sign a top-flight 2nd baseman right now.

savafan
04-05-2012, 10:35 PM
I'm in shock, mainly because I've never seen the Reds organization behave like this in my lifetime, but I like it!

FlightRick
04-05-2012, 10:46 PM
5yr $62-65MM offer on the table from a Reds' insider. Reported on Twitter by Jim Bowden.

That's a *little* more than I'd like to give up, but it might also simply be that that's what it costs if you want to retain Phillips.

I wonder if the front office was willing to give that little bit extra (the 5th year, the salary increase), in order to get a little flexibility in return from BP's camp? What I mean is, maybe a 5yr/$65m deal is structured to include a one year pay cut, before bumping back up, like Votto's...

In 2013, Joey does have that big $17m year, and we're still stuck paying Arroyo a fat $11m that he won't earn. That could be a problem, budgetarily-speaking. So maybe we get BP to agree to a 5 year deal where he gets paid $8m in 2013, and then $13m, $14m, $15m, $15m.

If so, I could stomach that. The aggregate ("5yrs/$65m") may sound steep, but broken down that way, it sure as hell would allow us to keep competing and fielding a top shelf team for the next 4 years straight, without having to take a year "off" in 2013. If the BP extension happens, our 7 core players are all signed/under control through 2015 or beyond, and in such a way that I believe the BCast hype that we aren't hamstrung when it comes to putting good players around that core. Could be shaping up as a fun few years to be a Reds fan....


Rick

savafan
04-05-2012, 10:55 PM
we're still stuck paying Arroyo a fat $11m that he won't earn.

I think he will, unless we're still perpetuating the myth around here that Homer Bailey is a better pitcher than Bronson.

RedEye
04-05-2012, 11:03 PM
I think he will, unless we're still perpetuating the myth around here that Homer Bailey is a better pitcher than Bronson.

Actually Homer has been a better pitcher than Bronson recently. He just hasn't been healthy...

FlightRick
04-05-2012, 11:06 PM
Perhaps Arroyo will earn that. He'd only have to be, what?, a 2.5-3.0 win player, right? Anything's possible if you're eating 200 innings.

I think my statement was more along the lines of "I'm impressed how we're picking the right guys and the right amounts of money for this sudden spending spree, which is the exact opposite of how I feel when I look and see that we're still on the hook for 2 years and $24m with Bronson."

Or, to tie it more directly to my main thesis: if we weren't still on the hook like that, I wouldn't be having to mastermind complicated plots in which we agree to a slight overpay to Phillips in exchange for getting him to take a paycut in 2013, since that year's budget already includes the big balloon year for Votto and a year for Arroyo that I bet the front office wishes they could take back, cuz right now, it's mostly just getting in the way.


Rick

RedEye
04-05-2012, 11:09 PM
I think my statement was more along the lines of "I'm impressed how we're picking the right guys and the right amounts of money for this sudden spending spree, which is the exact opposite of how I feel when I look and see that we're still on the hook for 2 years and $24m with Bronson."
Rick

Right there with ya, brother. If you think back to the Bronson, Cueto and Bruce contracts -- and the one that Edinson turned down -- there is some mad money being shelled out by the FO the past few years. I have no idea where it is coming from, but every time I hear Bob speak he looks so angry that I have to think he knows what he's doing. Angry people don't waste money, do they?

savafan
04-05-2012, 11:13 PM
I think Bronson is a pretty decent bargain for what he is as a starting pitcher for $11 million in this market.

RedEye
04-05-2012, 11:22 PM
I think Bronson is a pretty decent bargain for what he is as a starting pitcher for $11 million in this market.

That may be true. But for the Reds? I think the point is that folks are starting to worry about how much money the team is spending. Our projections for the payroll in the near future seem to have been blown to smithereens. And if both Votto and BP are gonna win the megamillions over the next few years, I think the Reds absolutely have to shoot for better than just "decent bargains" on their role players.

FlightRick
04-05-2012, 11:38 PM
I think Bronson is a pretty decent bargain for what he is as a starting pitcher for $11 million in this market.

I was willing to grant that Arroyo might "earn" his contract this year and next. If he puts up numbers like 2009-2010, we'll be getting what we're paying for (in terms of what we'd have to pay to replace him on the open market).

But to be a "bargain" requires we get MORE than we're paying for, and that doesn't happen unless Arroyo suddenly bounces back to 2005-2006 form. Which isn't likely to happen. I'm not convinced he'll continue to be a sub-replacement player (like 2011), but I'm even less convinced he has a chance in hell of putting up another 4-5 WAR season. Much less two of them.

I know this is a BP thread, and I'm contributing to the tangentializing... but this really does tie into my thoughts about Phillips getting extended. Because when I look at next year, and try to figure out how BP could be squeezed in, I only see two 8-digit salaries on the budget. And only one of them makes me go "Awww, dammit, I wish that wasn't there. It's just getting in the way."


Rick

corkedbat
04-05-2012, 11:48 PM
I think Bronson is a pretty decent bargain for what he is as a starting pitcher for $11 million in this market.

I'd rather have Kuroda for $10M.

WVPacman
04-06-2012, 12:05 AM
Lets just do what the Bankees do and buy a championship.:alcohol:

Patrick Bateman
04-06-2012, 01:41 AM
I'd rather have Kuroda for $10M.


If you think we are the Yankees, then yep, great post.

klw
04-06-2012, 08:46 AM
I'd rather have Kuroda for $10M.

Would Kuroda have come to the Reds for $10m is the other part of the equation.

Benihana
04-06-2012, 09:22 AM
Im on record saying that I wouldnt sign BP beyond 2015, and I certainly wouldnt go more than $12mm per. However, I think for better or worse (likely better) the reality has changed so much in the last week that who's to say how much is too much for this club?

I'd still prefer to stay under four (definitely less than five) years for a few reasons:
I think BP will clearly be in decline by 2015 if not sooner
I think we'll have good cheap alternatives ready by then (Hamilton, Gregorius, etc)
Most importantly, I think we'd be better off spending money on pitching in 2015 going forward, with Latos, Leake, Cueto and even Chapman all facing free agency.

Still though, I love DatDude and if he finishes his career in Cincy, I won't be distraught.

elfmanvt07
04-06-2012, 10:09 AM
Most importantly, I think we'd be better off spending money on pitching in 2015 going forward, with Latos, Leake, Cueto and even Chapman all facing free agency.

A thousand times this. If this organization is as willing as it seems to be to spend the money it takes to win, I don't want to have to start at square one with unproven pitching prospects. If any of the above names develop/maintain ace status, I want to be able to keep them.

MikeS21
04-06-2012, 10:10 AM
There is one part of this that I haven't heard brought up.

The one thing that I see happening that hasn't been here before is that there has been a perception around baseball that the Reds are conservative in handing out contracts, but also squeamish about their pursuit of high profile players. And that led to the perception that Cincinnati was where you went if you were trying to kill your career. Now I am seeing a willingness to get into the market and tumble - even if the Reds don't get their guy, they are players, and I think ultimately, that will make the organization more attractive in the future to future free agents, trade targets, and future draft picks as well.

IMO, the splash began when the Reds signed Duran and Yorman, and later pursued and signed Chapman over other teams. Also, the signing of CoCo - whether you liked him or not - helped move the organization towards respectability. The Arroyo contract, as much as we hate it, actually give credibility to the organization. The 2010 playoff appearance sure didn't hurt. The contract extensions to Bruce and Cueto were vital to changing perceptions about the Reds. It was widely known that the Reds were one of the finalists in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes last season at the trading deadline. And obviously, this off-season has been a major step in convincing the baseball world that the Reds are force to be reckoned with.

The more times the Reds appear on the "Game of the Week" and the more often the Reds make the highlights on "Sportscenter" on ESPN, that changes perception, and I think players will begin to tell their agents, "I'm willing to play for Cincinnati."

Let's face it. Cincinnati is no longer the Siberia of baseball. The organization is working to become the Waikiki Beach of baseball.

Kc61
04-06-2012, 10:36 AM
The more I think about these contracts, the more I believe they have to do with one thing only -- having "stars" on the Reds ballclub.

It's all about promoting the team, increasing TV revenue, and developing better fan support. Reds want "stars."

Ultimately, this could well help the team on the field by improving revenues to the point where the Reds have lots of high caliber players.

But I don't think for a minute anyone is sitting down and thinking whether they are better off spending on pitchers, or hitters, or fielders, or third basemen, or closers.

I think the Reds want stars to make the team more attractive to fans and to media. That's what this is all about IMO.

Kc61
04-06-2012, 10:37 AM
Double post.

Blitz Dorsey
04-06-2012, 10:46 AM
I did not see this one coming. I thought for sure BP would leave via free agency.

Why are some fans complaining or worrying about the money situation? This is MUCH better than wondering if the team is EVER going to sack-up and spend some real money.

I love it. They're not going overboard. They signed an MVP-player to a big-time contract. And now they're signing an All-Star/Gold-Glover. These are good investments on position players. Votto's was a bit lengthy, but Phillips for 5 years would be great. He'll start to taper off soon, but he hasn't been a big steals guy the last few years anyway. He's in there for his defense and his bat. And we need a good RH stick since the other two big-money players offensively in Votto and Bruce are left-handed.

I love this. Way to go B-Cast!

Hoosier Red
04-06-2012, 11:26 AM
The more I think about these contracts, the more I believe they have to do with one thing only -- having "stars" on the Reds ballclub.

It's all about promoting the team, increasing TV revenue, and developing better fan support. Reds want "stars."

Ultimately, this could well help the team on the field by improving revenues to the point where the Reds have lots of high caliber players.

But I don't think for a minute anyone is sitting down and thinking whether they are better off spending on pitchers, or hitters, or fielders, or third basemen, or closers.

I think the Reds want stars to make the team more attractive to fans and to media. That's what this is all about IMO.

It's all part of the model though isn't it?

I think no matter the budget, the allocation of dollars to pitchers/catchers/fielders will play an important role. But another important factor is the size of the pie.

In order to grow the size of the payroll pie, they have to bring in more revenues.

In order to bring in more revenues they have to establish credibility with the fans.

In order to establish the credibility with (more) fans, they have to bring in star players or retain their own star players.

And in order to retain their own star players, they may have to sign a larger contract then previous front offices were uncomfortable with.

M2
04-06-2012, 11:30 AM
The more I think about these contracts, the more I believe they have to do with one thing only -- having "stars" on the Reds ballclub.

It's all about promoting the team, increasing TV revenue, and developing better fan support. Reds want "stars."

Ultimately, this could well help the team on the field by improving revenues to the point where the Reds have lots of high caliber players.

But I don't think for a minute anyone is sitting down and thinking whether they are better off spending on pitchers, or hitters, or fielders, or third basemen, or closers.

I think the Reds want stars to make the team more attractive to fans and to media. That's what this is all about IMO.

I think you nailed it.

If it proves successful then we might see this policy repeated when it comes time to extend Bruce, Cueto and Latos.

Kc61
04-06-2012, 11:34 AM
It's all part of the model though isn't it?

I think no matter the budget, the allocation of dollars to pitchers/catchers/fielders will play an important role. But another important factor is the size of the pie.

In order to grow the size of the payroll pie, they have to bring in more revenues.

In order to bring in more revenues they have to establish credibility with the fans.

In order to establish the credibility with (more) fans, they have to bring in star players or retain their own star players.

And in order to retain their own star players, they may have to sign a larger contract then previous front offices were uncomfortable with.

Exactly. This is precisely what they are doing.

And the benefit for "us fans" is that we get a first class group of baseball players to watch at GABP or on TV.

My only point is that right now I don't think the Reds are surgically dissecting their team to figure out what positions they need filled in the future.

I think they are looking for star attractions to produce the revenue to someday result in even better players at all positions.

We are saying the same thing.

Hoosier Red
04-06-2012, 11:38 AM
Exactly. This is precisely what they are doing.

And the benefit for "us fans" is that we get a first class group of baseball players to watch at GABP or on TV.

My only point is that right now I don't think the Reds are surgically dissecting their team to figure out what positions they need filled in the future.

I think they are looking for star attractions to produce the revenue to someday result in even better players at all positions.

We are saying the same thing.

Yep. Those two sentences sum it up perfectly.

I think it's an important distinction to make. St. Louis and Tampa Bay each operates within a budget. And they each operate in a way that they feel is most efficient within that budget. But it's a lot easier to win if you have an extra $40 million in the budget, even if you have to commit $25 of it to one player to generate that $40 million.

OnBaseMachine
04-06-2012, 12:06 PM
I just hope they don't go past four years for Phillips. 4 years, $50-55ish million would be my offer.

Caveat Emperor
04-06-2012, 12:11 PM
I think you nailed it.

If it proves successful then we might see this policy repeated when it comes time to extend Bruce, Cueto and Latos.

If the budget can fit it, I'm all for it.

I think there's also tremendous institutional value to the idea that a team "takes care of it's own."

Roy Tucker
04-06-2012, 12:15 PM
It's all about building critical mass.

It's hard to get the momentum going. But once you do, its easier to keep it going than keep starting and stopping.

AmarilloRed
04-06-2012, 03:51 PM
Bowden is saying now Brandon will sign if the Reds offer 6 guaranteed years. That's too much to ask, pull the offer and let him enter FA.

fearofpopvol1
04-06-2012, 04:27 PM
Bowden is saying now Brandon will sign if the Reds offer 6 guaranteed years. That's too much to ask, pull the offer and let him enter FA.

If it is indeed true, and Bowden isn't always right, I would say no go. That's too long IMO unless he offers up a massive discount. I am good with a 4 year extension and would even go 5 years if there was some discount.

Benihana
04-06-2012, 04:27 PM
Bowden is saying now Brandon will sign if the Reds offer 6 guaranteed years. That's too much to ask, pull the offer and let him enter FA.

I believe Bowden's comments include 2012 FWIW.

I'd still prefer not to go past 2015 on an extension with BP, especially at $12mm per.

Ghosts of 1990
04-06-2012, 04:33 PM
more awesome news

fearofpopvol1
04-06-2012, 04:47 PM
I believe Bowden's comments include 2012 FWIW.

I'd still prefer not to go past 2015 on an extension with BP, especially at $12mm per.

If that's true, I would be willing to do it if the money was right.

bucksfan2
04-06-2012, 04:54 PM
I just hope they don't go past four years for Phillips. 4 years, $50-55ish million would be my offer.

That would be idal for the Reds. Heck I would hope they could get him for $10-$12/year. But I think we all would agree that the Reds would be getting the much better deal.

I really want little to do with Brandon after the age of 35-36. I have a feeling father time will hit him hard.

Caveat Emperor
04-06-2012, 04:55 PM
If one year is the hang up, the deal will be done by Monday. Probably with some option year + club buyout language.

M2
04-06-2012, 04:59 PM
I really want little to do with Brandon after the age of 35-36. I have a feeling father time will hit him hard.

Father time hitting him hard would mean his bird timer would be popping right about now.

If he makes it to 35 and is still a plus player, then he's aged awfully well.

dabvu2498
04-06-2012, 05:00 PM
If one year is the hang up, the deal will be done by Monday. Probably with some option year + club buyout language.

I'd probably do that as a sweetener and show of good faith.

MartyFan
04-06-2012, 05:35 PM
What if BPhillips moves?

We're all worried about BPhillips aging at 2B...would he be a candidate to move to 3B towards the end of this contract if that is a problem?

Seems to me that would be a win, win, win..I know we may be a couple years from that sort of thinking but, wondering if his skills would fit well at 3b?

Kc61
04-06-2012, 05:39 PM
What if BPhillips moves?

We're all worried about BPhillips aging at 2B...would he be a candidate to move to 3B towards the end of this contract if that is a problem?

Seems to me that would be a win, win, win..I know we may be a couple years from that sort of thinking but, wondering if his skills would fit well at 3b?

I mentioned this earlier. As Phillips slows down he can play third or possibly corner outfield.

This is because he has such good power. Even as a slower, less athletic player, Phillips can add to the offense with his power. As a second baseman, you'd have to think he could transition to third or LF.

Ghosts of 1990
04-06-2012, 07:51 PM
Heard they're offering 5 years, Via HardballTalk

membengal
04-06-2012, 08:06 PM
Is Jim Bowden getting a commission if this deal gets done?

corkedbat
04-06-2012, 08:44 PM
Is Jim Bowden getting a commission if this deal gets done?

He get his leather pants half-off.

Hoosier Red
04-06-2012, 08:46 PM
Is Jim Bowden getting a commission if this deal gets done?

No doubt. He would have signed by now if Bowden wasn't feeding him is ideas.
"yeah, a 6th year. I was only going to ask for four years, but 6 seems right."

nate
04-06-2012, 08:48 PM
He get his leather pants half-off.

That could be taken a number of ways.

:cool:

corkedbat
04-06-2012, 09:48 PM
That could be taken a number of ways.

:cool:

I know. Wonder if why that is why he's divorced? :cool:

Blitz Dorsey
04-06-2012, 09:54 PM
5 years would be cool with me, although I would prefer 4 (meaning a 4-year extension 2013-16, not counting 2012). If Phillips is dead set on 6 years, I'd call his bluff. 5 years, final offer.

I hope it gets done. I never thought BP would sign with the Reds past 2012 because I knew his asking price would be "Uggla or higher" and I didn't think the Reds would give that to a 30-year-old second baseman. Glad to see B-Cast being aggressive here with the team's stars. And guys that are quality men off the field. (You don't have to worry about Votto and BP getting arrested. They could never play for the Bengals.)

RBA
04-06-2012, 10:14 PM
Phillips isn't bluffing.

RedEye
04-07-2012, 12:01 PM
5 years would be cool with me, although I would prefer 4 (meaning a 4-year extension 2013-16, not counting 2012). If Phillips is dead set on 6 years, I'd call his bluff. 5 years, final offer.


Any idea why BP would be so set on 6 rather than 5? Is there some significance to the sixth year that I'm missing here? Seems kind of arbitrary when you are being offered $60 million...

camisadelgolf
04-07-2012, 12:52 PM
If I'm Brandon Phillips' agent, I'm saying, "Listen, I know Brandon's no Joey Votto, but he's only two years older, has improved almost every year, has been winning Gold Gloves, has been going to All-Star games, is a fan favorite, and much more. If Votto can get a 12-year contract, why can't Brandon get half that despite the fact that he's obviously more than half the player that Votto is?"

AmarilloRed
04-07-2012, 03:18 PM
If I'm Brandon Phillips' agent, I'm saying, "Listen, I know Brandon's no Joey Votto, but he's only two years older, has improved almost every year, has been winning Gold Gloves, has been going to All-Star games, is a fan favorite, and much more. If Votto can get a 12-year contract, why can't Brandon get half that despite the fact that he's obviously more than half the player that Votto is?"

If I'm the Reds-I say economics. Just about everyone will be entering FA in the 2015-2017 period, and we will need that money for Bruce, Cueto, Latos. I think it is a mistake to offer 5 years. Nothing against Brandon, but the Reds shouldn't go beyond 3 guaranteed years with him. He might be able to get 6 years in FA-but it shouldn't be with the Reds.

Caveat Emperor
04-07-2012, 03:32 PM
Split the difference -- 5 years + team option 6th year w/ buyout. Take it to Brandon and say "You can be paid fairly and be part of this thing in a city that loves you, or you can go be a big free-agent signing someplace else for a bit more money. Your call."

He'll sign. The risk of an underperforming year or injury is simply too high to turn down the offer the Reds are making -- especially if they add the option year on.

Vottomatic
04-07-2012, 03:41 PM
If BP walks away from a good offer from the Reds due to his own arrogance, I will be disappointed in him.

KoryMac5
04-07-2012, 05:19 PM
If BP walks away from a good offer from the Reds due to his own arrogance, I will be disappointed in him.

Why is it arrogant to walk away from the offer. Baseball is a business on both sides. Maybe BP really wants that additional year for financial security. Personally I cant blame the guy for trying to get another year out of these negotiations.

RANDY IN INDY
04-07-2012, 05:32 PM
It's his choice. If he walks away from it, I won't feel bad for him. It's more than a fair offer.

corkedbat
04-07-2012, 05:43 PM
They will probably not only give him six years, but a full no-trade clause and that would make me very nervous,

Strikes Out Looking
04-07-2012, 10:00 PM
They will probably not only give him six years, but a full no-trade clause and that would make me very nervous,

He'll have 10-5 rights in two years, so the no-trade clause isn't really relevant.

Brutus
04-07-2012, 11:34 PM
He'll have 10-5 rights in two years, so the no-trade clause isn't really relevant.

I wish more people would have thought about that with the Votto contract too. He'll be getting automatic no-trade protection halfway through his deal, so the full no-trade wasn't really a huge deal until that time.

edabbs44
04-08-2012, 10:41 AM
I wish more people would have thought about that with the Votto contract too. He'll be getting automatic no-trade protection halfway through his deal, so the full no-trade wasn't really a huge deal until that time.

And the back loading of the contract pretty much guarantees the no tradeness of the contract in the first half.

corkedbat
04-08-2012, 12:12 PM
In BP's case, it is reaching the point where I would off him $12M, let him go on the open market and see if anyone out there will offer 6/$15 per and take the picks if they do. If not, offer the deal that's on the table now (or less).

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 12:22 PM
Why is it arrogant to walk away from the offer. Baseball is a business on both sides. Maybe BP really wants that additional year for financial security. Personally I cant blame the guy for trying to get another year out of these negotiations.

If you really really want to stay with your team, you should be willing to give up a bit.

It's really hard to say you really want to stay but want the highest possible deal you can get.

Roy Tucker
04-08-2012, 12:35 PM
True. You can either chase the most ultimate big bucks you can in an unfamiliar place. Or you can take 95 per cent of your value from a situation you know and like.

Both approaches are perfectly fine. Just depends on what you want most.

westofyou
04-08-2012, 12:46 PM
Heard they're offering 5 years, Via HardballTalk

This I don't like, second baseman tend to fall of the map quickly, DeShields, Durham, Samauel, Hudson... And that's just off the top of my head

I'm not a big fan if long contracts into the thirties for middle IF, especially ones that are not Gold Standard, BP is more silver on my eyes.

Five is too much, shoot three is a stretch IMO

Kc61
04-08-2012, 01:41 PM
This I don't like, second baseman tend to fall of the map quickly, DeShields, Durham, Samauel, Hudson... And that's just off the top of my head

I'm not a big fan if long contracts into the thirties for middle IF, especially ones that are not Gold Standard, BP is more silver on my eyes.

Five is too much, shoot three is a stretch IMO

Phillips has power. He can play a corner position in his older years.

dougdirt
04-08-2012, 01:47 PM
Phillips has power. He can play a corner position in his older years.

Phillips has hit 17-21 home runs every year of his career except his 30 home run season. One of those things is not like the others. Phillips does not have corner power.

Kc61
04-08-2012, 01:58 PM
Phillips has hit 17-21 home runs every year of his career except his 30 home run season. One of those things is not like the others. Phillips does not have corner power.

Last four seasons, after the 30 Hr season, Phillips hit 21, 20, 18, 18 homers. He always has a respectable SLG. And some players fill out a bit in their thirties and hit for more power.

I see absolutely no reason why BP can't play third base in his later years. Unless the concern is that he might block David Vidal or somebody.

IslandRed
04-08-2012, 02:07 PM
Phillips has hit 17-21 home runs every year of his career except his 30 home run season. One of those things is not like the others. Phillips does not have corner power.

You're mostly right, but then, when talking about corners (1B, 3B, LF, RF), one of those positions is not like the others either. Lots of teams are playing mediocre bats at third base. That would be a spot where an aging Phillips could at least not kill the team, if not exactly being an All-Star asset.

In general, though, I agree with the sentiment of recent posts -- the rumored contract on the table is more than generous enough from the Reds' perspective. Final offer. If Phillips chooses not to take it, that's his business decision.

RedsManRick
04-08-2012, 02:44 PM
Plus defense and a .340 wOBA is league average production or better at every position. Sure, we'd all love to have another Jay Bruce in LF, but the reality is the LF has become a bit of a sink hole across mlb. Only 3 players with at least 400 PA had a 3 WAR or higher in LF last year. For the most part, you get sluggers who can't fielder and fielders who can't slug. The Holliday, Gonzalez, Hamilton type is the exception these days, not the rule.

That said, I don't want to be paying BP $12MM to play LF when everybody's got a guy like Heisey floating around.

757690
04-08-2012, 02:57 PM
Last few years, NL league average 3B SLG was around .420. As a Red, Phillips has averaged around .450 SLG. With his defense, he should be fine at 3B, if he continues to hit the same.

westofyou
04-08-2012, 03:26 PM
Phillips has power. He can play a corner position in his older years.

You mean third, first is taken

Never gave it much a thought, wonder if the Reds have?

camisadelgolf
04-08-2012, 04:13 PM
A .780 OPS with Gold Glove defense at third? If he can stay healthy, that'd be more impressive than what Rolen has done the past 5+ years.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 04:57 PM
A .780 OPS with Gold Glove defense at third? If he can stay healthy, that'd be more impressive than what Rolen has done the past 5+ years.

Actually Rolen has been above an .800 OPs over the last 5 years, with GG defense.

camisadelgolf
04-08-2012, 05:47 PM
Actually Rolen has been above an .800 OPs over the last 5 years, with GG defense.
No, it hasn't. It has been .785, and Phillips' has been .784. The difference is that Rolen averages 110 games per season while Phillips averages more than 150. Granted, you can't assume Phillips would be as good of a defender as Rolen, even at his old age. However, I think the option to move him to third down the road has to be considered. It's especially true when you consider that the Reds might have better 2B prospects than they do 3B prospects, although I consider SS prospects to qualify as 2B prospects as well.

Roy Tucker
04-08-2012, 05:55 PM
It might be because of playing 2B, but BP doesn't seem to have a 3B arm.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 06:31 PM
No, it hasn't. It has been .785, and Phillips' has been .784. The difference is that Rolen averages 110 games per season while Phillips averages more than 150. Granted, you can't assume Phillips would be as good of a defender as Rolen, even at his old age. However, I think the option to move him to third down the road has to be considered. It's especially true when you consider that the Reds might have better 2B prospects than they do 3B prospects, although I consider SS prospects to qualify as 2B prospects as well.

Generally 3B need to hit better than 2B to be a regular.

It's doubtful that Phillips could at the age of 35 become a GG winning 3B.

BCubb2003
04-08-2012, 06:37 PM
I wonder if a Silver Slugger 2B would translate into a decent-hitting 3B.

LegallyMinded
04-08-2012, 07:55 PM
It might be because of playing 2B, but BP doesn't seem to have a 3B arm.

The Fan Scouting Reports from fangraphs think Phillips has a pretty strong arm. They've got him second overall (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=9,d) among second basemen the last three seasons, and his score would put him in the upper half of third basemen (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=9,d). Granted, I'm not sure how reliable those rankings are, but it seems like Phillips could certainly at least give third a shot.

Benihana
04-08-2012, 08:10 PM
I think BP could be decent enough at 3B in 2015/2016 that I wouldn't object if he signs a five year deal. I do think the Reds need to keep a lot of powder available to resign some of the pitchers who will be entering FA around then, but we're in seemingly such a better position than I dreamed we'd be in even a week ago that I'm not going to complain-or at least I won't whine. Long live Walt and Cast!

MartyFan
04-08-2012, 08:10 PM
Generally 3B need to hit better than 2B to be a regular.

It's doubtful that Phillips could at the age of 35 become a GG winning 3B.


How old was Pete Rose when he did that? Oh, that's right, he never did.

I wonder though, does he need to be a GG 3B? Could he be as productive as need be if he was just league average while allowing a superior defender at 2B and SS to take the field?

nate
04-08-2012, 09:03 PM
Over the past three seasons, BP has had a .340 wOBA. That's ties him for 8th with Brain Roberts amongst all 2B.

In that same time period, a .340 wOBA would rank 12th amongst 3B.

Tidbit: #11 is none other than Scott Rolen while #13 is EE.

Defensively at 3B, I guess he'd be above average to good. I think he has the range and glove, it just depends on his arm. Defense at 3B isn't quite as valuable as defense at 2B so he'd lose some value there. Plus, the biggest obstacle is whether or not he'd be willing to change positions.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 09:06 PM
How old was Pete Rose when he did that? Oh, that's right, he never did.

I wonder though, does he need to be a GG 3B? Could he be as productive as need be if he was just league average while allowing a superior defender at 2B and SS to take the field?

I'm not sure I want to bet a ton of money on the basis that Phillips might become an OK 3B down the line.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 09:08 PM
The Fan Scouting Reports from fangraphs think Phillips has a pretty strong arm. They've got him second overall (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=9,d) among second basemen the last three seasons, and his score would put him in the upper half of third basemen (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=9,d). Granted, I'm not sure how reliable those rankings are, but it seems like Phillips could certainly at least give third a shot.



I assume ranking 2B is based on the arm required to play 2B, which might be entirely different that ranking 3B's arms. Some arms are very strong over shorter distances. It doesn always follow that the strongest arm at 2B would be the strongest arm at 3B or even RF.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 09:13 PM
I wonder if a Silver Slugger 2B would translate into a decent-hitting 3B.

Phillips lifetime OPS is .755.

Last year (admittedly a weak year for 3B in the NL), that OPS would rank average among 3B with 300 or more PA's.

Kc61
04-08-2012, 09:39 PM
You mean third, first is taken

Never gave it much a thought, wonder if the Reds have?

Probably could play some LF too.

He won't hit forty homers, but he might be as good as Ludwick or Heisey, at least offensively.

I think BP will have value for a number of years. But the Reds have to draw the line someplace, I trust they will make the correct call on this deal.

HokieRed
04-08-2012, 09:48 PM
IMHO, Phillips' only claim to the kind of money he's rightly seeking is as a GG, better than average offensively 2b. We ought to be able to find much better options at 3b and LF by the time Phillips will, theoretically, be playing these positions, and for far less. I think it's a tough call, but I would not extend him.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 09:49 PM
Probably could play some LF too.

He won't hit forty homers, but he might be as good as Ludwick or Heisey, at least offensively.

I think BP will have value for a number of years. But the Reds have to draw the line someplace, I trust they will make the correct call on this deal.

Lifetime .755 OPS in left field?

Phillips greatest value is that he's a bit above league average hitter who brings good defesne and running ability.

The very second he can't play an above average 2B he's becomes a less interesting player. That that could happen pretty soon, but certainly withion 3 years.

LegallyMinded
04-08-2012, 10:28 PM
I assume ranking 2B is based on the arm required to play 2B, which might be entirely different that ranking 3B's arms. Some arms are very strong over shorter distances. It doesn always follow that the strongest arm at 2B would be the strongest arm at 3B or even RF.

The methodology for the fans scouting report can be found here (http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/). According to that page, the fans are expressly not supposed to consider the position the player occupies when rating his arm, instincts, first step, and so on. Now, that doesn't guarantee that all the fans who contribute to the rating actually follow that idea, but at least in theory the ratings between second and third basemen should be comparable.

PuffyPig
04-08-2012, 10:31 PM
The methodology for the fans scouting report can be found here (http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/). According to that page, the fans are expressly not supposed to consider the position the player occupies when rating his arm, instincts, first step, and so on. Now, that doesn't guarantee that all the fans who contribute to the rating actually follow that idea, but at least in theory the ratings between second and third basemen should be comparable.

If it's rated by the fans it's worth very little.

How do you really rate the long distance strength of a 2B when you seldom see him throw very far?

757690
04-08-2012, 10:48 PM
Phillips started out as a SS with a strong arm. If he has a strong enough arm for SS, he has a strong enough arm for 3B.

Also, what people are failing to understand is that the Reds will be paying for those last two years, in order to get what is likely to be three solid years up front.

If Phillips is a 4 win player in just the first three years of his extension, he will pay for all five years, making the last two years freebies. So if the Reds are getting just 2 wins a year out of Phillips, those last 2 years, would be a huge bonus. For the record, over the last five seasons, Phillips has been worth nearly $100M in terms of production.

Basically, even if he starts to fall apart in 2016, he will likely more than justify the $60M he will be getting paid over the entire contract.

MartyFan
04-08-2012, 10:53 PM
IMHO, Phillips' only claim to the kind of money he's rightly seeking is as a GG, better than average offensively 2b. We ought to be able to find much better options at 3b and LF by the time Phillips will, theoretically, be playing these positions, and for far less. I think it's a tough call, but I would not extend him.

I don't disagree but I guess my thinking is that BP would move only to NOT BE BLOCKING a sure fire MLB 2b or SS from coming up...with Rolen likely gone at the end of this season, I was just thinking out loud about where BP could be moved to keep his bat and attitude on the team while allowing the less expensive new guys in the middle infield to take over there.

M2
04-09-2012, 01:04 AM
I would think Phillips' bat would erode faster than his 2B defensive skills. He's always been better with the glove, and 2B traditionally has been a position where players can thrive well into their 30s.

lollipopcurve
04-09-2012, 07:08 AM
I see BP's long-term differently than most. I think his bat will age better than his glove. While he covers ground and has good hands, his feet are not super nimble, he leaves his feet a lot and he plays a lot of balls with one hand off to the side. It's an acrobatic style, but it's not one that I think will age particularly well. Doesn't mean he can't stay at 2B, it's just that I think his performance will dip noticeably. I have more confidence in his offense down the road. He's got a smart approach at the plate with a superb feel for going up the middle and to RF. His hands work very well. I see him and Jeter, who also has power and goes the other way with a lot of success, as similar hitters.

PuffyPig
04-09-2012, 07:44 AM
Phillips started out as a SS with a strong arm. If he has a strong enough arm for SS, he has a strong enough arm for 3B.

Also, what people are failing to understand is that the Reds will be paying for those last two years, in order to get what is likely to be three solid years up front.

If Phillips is a 4 win player in just the first three years of his extension, he will pay for all five years, making the last two years freebies. So if the Reds are getting just 2 wins a year out of Phillips, those last 2 years, would be a huge bonus. For the record, over the last five seasons, Phillips has been worth nearly $100M in terms of production.

Basically, even if he starts to fall apart in 2016, he will likely more than justify the $60M he will be getting paid over the entire contract.

Firstly, just because he had an arm strong enough for SS long ago, does not mean he will have a strong enough arm for 3B 10 years later.

Secondly, over the last 5 years, according to baseball reference, Phillips has been a 2.54 WAR player, not 4.

Roy Tucker
04-09-2012, 08:11 AM
The methodology for the fans scouting report can be found here (http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/). According to that page, the fans are expressly not supposed to consider the position the player occupies when rating his arm, instincts, first step, and so on. Now, that doesn't guarantee that all the fans who contribute to the rating actually follow that idea, but at least in theory the ratings between second and third basemen should be comparable.

I was just going on my purely subjective opinion about his arm. That and $.75 will get you a cup of coffee.

Throws from 2B seem to be more quick flips that rely on a fast release than a strong air-it-out 3B throw. Mostly because of the position, I don't recall BP making a throw where I went "wow!" because of arm strength. He's made a lot of acrobatic or pivot throws from a ball up the middle where I've thought "wow" from a 2B sense.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great second baseman. I just don't think that necessarily translates to a good third baseman. It's a different skill set.

lollipopcurve
04-09-2012, 08:41 AM
Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great second baseman. I just don't think that necessarily translates to a good third baseman. It's a different skill set.

Agreed. I think he stays at 2B.

westofyou
04-09-2012, 09:49 AM
Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great second baseman. I just don't think that necessarily translates to a good third baseman. It's a different skill set.

On that note can anyone remember more than a handful of guys who played at least 400 games at each position?

Pete Rose, Frankie Frisch, are two that come to mind, struggling to find anymore off the top of my head

RichRed
04-09-2012, 09:52 AM
On that note can anyone remember more than a handful of guys who played at least 400 games at each position?

Pete Rose, Frankie Frisch, are two that come to mind, struggling to find anymore off the top of my head

Paul Molitor, just barely.

BCubb2003
04-09-2012, 09:53 AM
When I think of some of the guys we've wanted to see at third, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns, then Brandon Phillips looks like Brooks Robinson.

westofyou
04-09-2012, 10:00 AM
Paul Molitor, just barely.

True, however I believe that was a forced move due to the emergence of Gantner

757690
04-09-2012, 11:03 AM
Firstly, just because he had an arm strong enough for SS long ago, does not mean he will have a strong enough arm for 3B 10 years later.

Secondly, over the last 5 years, according to baseball reference, Phillips has been a 2.54 WAR player, not 4.

Fangraphs has him as a 22 win total or 4.4 win average player over the last five years. baseball-reference uses old school metrics for defense, which is why they always undervalue strong defensive players compared to Fangraphs.

Seriously, do you think Phillips has been a below average 2B over the last five years? Because that is what baseball-reference' win totals say about him.

MartyFan
04-09-2012, 11:39 AM
When I think of some of the guys we've wanted to see at third, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns, then Brandon Phillips looks like Brooks Robinson.

I don't think anyone has said they "want to move Phillips 3B"...I know I didn't. I am simply curious if a longer contract could be better justified to Phillips if he is able to move to 3B as he gets a little older and as younger talent currently in the minors is ready to join the team at SS or 2B.

corkedbat
04-09-2012, 11:48 AM
Can we sticky this? I get the feeling its gonna be a while. :D

MikeS21
04-09-2012, 11:56 AM
Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't BP's arm the main reason the Reds have been reluctant to move BP to SS? When you consider all the journeyman SS's the Reds have toyed with since BP has been here, surely there have been some better journeyman 2B options that have been available if the Reds would only slide BP to SS. But they have been unwilling to do that.

I realize BP gives CG defense at 2B, and I was under the impression he would give CG caliber defense at SS. I thought his arm was the weakness. Just about every scouting rating I have seen on his throwing arm has been low.

Plus, didn't I read something several years ago that SS was BP's preferred position?

Caveat Emperor
04-09-2012, 11:59 AM
Can we sticky this? I get the feeling its gonna be a while. :D

It'll be an interesting thread to re-visit in 2016, but I doubt this situation lingers much longer. I'd be shocked if they don't have a deal done before the month is over.

OldRightHander
04-09-2012, 03:49 PM
It'll be an interesting thread to re-visit in 2016, but I doubt this situation lingers much longer. I'd be shocked if they don't have a deal done before the decade is over.

I couldn't agree more.

mattfeet
04-09-2012, 05:32 PM
I couldn't agree more.

:lol:

klw
04-09-2012, 05:52 PM
I wonder if having the Cardinals in town makes the Reds more or less likely to announce a Phillips extension over the next three days or if it has no impact.

WVPacman
04-09-2012, 11:12 PM
Can we sticky this? I get the feeling its gonna be a while. :D

Why did this contract hit a snag or something? what is the latest?

Homer Bailey
04-10-2012, 01:06 AM
Kinsler gets 5 years/$75 million, with an option for a 6th year, per @MLB.

nate
04-10-2012, 09:45 AM
Kinsler gets 5 years/$75 million, with an option for a 6th year, per @MLB.

BP might have been waiting for this.

To me, that's too much and too long for BP.

BCubb2003
04-10-2012, 10:01 AM
I don't think anyone has said they "want to move Phillips 3B"...I know I didn't. I am simply curious if a longer contract could be better justified to Phillips if he is able to move to 3B as he gets a little older and as younger talent currently in the minors is ready to join the team at SS or 2B.

I was just thinking that we're all (me included) being so precise about what it takes to be a 3B, when in the past it seemed like a casual thing to suggest it as a way to get a decent hitter back in the lineup.

Hoosier Red
04-10-2012, 10:47 AM
I'm guessing even if he wasn't expecting to get Kinsler money and/or Kinsler years, it made sense to see what Kinsler got. If I were him, I'd at least go for 5 years 60 million with an option for the 6th year.

Looking at the numbers over the last three years though and it's slightly closer than I originally imagined.

Phillips is older but has been slightly more durable. This might be a positive or a negative as just like with running backs in the NFL, if you haven't been injured yet, it only means that one is likely coming.

The difference in OBP and SLG is basically negligible while Phillips has more of all the counting stats thanks to roughly 81 more at bats per season.

Kinsler hasn't had a gold glove season(though I don't know what the word is on his defense overall) while Phillips has back to back gold gloves.

That may be too much for the Reds, but I'm guessing it's probably about what Phillips is expecting to sign for.

Blitz Dorsey
04-10-2012, 11:22 AM
Was going to start a thread about the Kinsler contract, glad I checked here first. Figured one of you studs would be on top of it.

Will be interesting to see how this affects the BP negotiations. They now have not just Uggla's contract but Kinsler's as well to use for comparison purposes. Personally, I think BP would be worth more than Uggla on the open market and less than Kinsler. So, take those two deals, average 'em together, and let's make a deal.

Details about Kinsler contract:

http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/7783512/ian-kinsler-texas-rangers-agree-5-year-extension

PuffyPig
04-10-2012, 11:25 AM
I'm guessing even if he wasn't expecting to get Kinsler money and/or Kinsler years, it made sense to see what Kinsler got. If I were him, I'd at least go for 5 years 60 million with an option for the 6th year.

Looking at the numbers over the last three years though and it's slightly closer than I originally imagined.

Phillips is older but has been slightly more durable. This might be a positive or a negative as just like with running backs in the NFL, if you haven't been injured yet, it only means that one is likely coming.

The difference in OBP and SLG is basically negligible while Phillips has more of all the counting stats thanks to roughly 81 more at bats per season.

Kinsler hasn't had a gold glove season(though I don't know what the word is on his defense overall) while Phillips has back to back gold gloves.

That may be too much for the Reds, but I'm guessing it's probably about what Phillips is expecting to sign for.


Kinsler is a year younger, and has a WAR of about 5 over the last 4 years. Phillips is below 2.5 during the period.

Kinsler's OPS+ is 115, Phillips 96.

I assume that Kinsler would get quite a bit more. He's certainly worth it.

Roy Tucker
04-10-2012, 11:43 AM
I was just thinking that we're all (me included) being so precise about what it takes to be a 3B, when in the past it seemed like a casual thing to suggest it as a way to get a decent hitter back in the lineup.


Are you impugning that we here in RZ over-think things?!??!? That perhaps we latch onto some minutiae topic and then bore down relentlessly on it and beat to a bloody pulp?

Never!!!

;)

klw
04-10-2012, 01:00 PM
Jimbo strikes again!

http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/189749055809789952
‏ @JimBowdenESPNxm


The Cincinnati Reds are prepared to guarantee a 6-year 72.5m to Brandon Phillips and I am predicting the deal will get done in next 24 hours

mattfeet
04-10-2012, 01:03 PM
Jimbo strikes again!

http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/189749055809789952
‏ @JimBowdenESPNxm

Wow. With that type of deal, BP would be stupid not to sign. Here's to hoping BP will be able to slide over to 3B and keep a productive bat in his later years.

-Matt

Homer Bailey
04-10-2012, 01:06 PM
Wow. That's a bigger deal than I imagined.*

*- coming from Bowden, I take it with a huge grain of salt

Plus Plus
04-10-2012, 01:16 PM
Reds source: "We have agreed in principal to a 6-year $72.5m deal with Brandon Phillips pending ownership approval" unconfirmed.

https://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/189763498321002496

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 01:18 PM
Absolutely silly deal. My goodness.

Homer Bailey
04-10-2012, 01:20 PM
GOOD DAY #Cincinnati... Just got to say, THERE'S NO PLACE LIKE HOME!!!! Looks like y'all might have to deal w/ me a little bit longer ��

@Datdudebp

GoReds
04-10-2012, 01:25 PM
Love the player.

Hate the deal.

membengal
04-10-2012, 01:27 PM
Glad its not my money. That's a much harder contract to think about given his age and position. Good luck Reds. And that's coming from a definite Brandon Phillips fan.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 01:29 PM
Question is whether the deal starts in 2012 or in 2013. If it starts in 2013 then it is a seven season commitment.

Brandon will need to start learning 3B and LF either way.

I'm ok with it, another face for the franchise.

Now, if Rolen gets offered another five years, then you have to ask some questions.

PuffyPig
04-10-2012, 01:33 PM
Question is whether the deal starts in 2012 or in 2013. If it starts in 2013 then it is a seven season commitment.



He is already signed for this year. It's a 6 year extension, making it a 6 year commitment. We are already commited to him for one year.

klw
04-10-2012, 01:35 PM
He is already signed for this year. It's a 6 year extension, making it a 6 year commitment. We are already commited to him for one year.

Bowden's prior tweets seemed to be including this year as one of the years.
Example from a few days back:


JIM BOWDEN ‏ @JimBowdenESPNxm Reply Retweet Favorite Open
Anothe Reds source "Jim, so u r 100%accurate our offer was 2012-2016 at &12m per yr ifwe give him 6th yr I think deal gets done right then"

Now this: He is including this year as first of 6
http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm

JIM BOWDEN ‏ @JimBowdenESPNxm Close
Phillips got six years guaranteed 2012-2017 @$72.5m pending becomes only 2B in baseball history to have earned at least $12m at age 36
1:34

Now says deal now confirmed

JIM BOWDEN ‏ @JimBowdenESPNxm Reply Retweet Favorite Open
Deal now confirmed....Phillips and Reds 6-years $72.5m congrats both Reds and Phillips

pedro
04-10-2012, 01:36 PM
Ugh

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2012, 01:38 PM
I wouldn't have went past four years for Phillips. Not a fan of going six years with him.

RedsManRick
04-10-2012, 01:41 PM
2016 or could start getting ugly.

757690
04-10-2012, 01:41 PM
As I have said many times before, the only issue is if this deal prevents the Reds from adding talent it needs at some point. We already assumed that the Votto deal would prevent the Reds from extending Phillips, and it looks like we (including myself) were wrong.

So while it think this is crazy for the Reds to be signing Phillips for so long, all I will say officially about it is... We'll see...

klw
04-10-2012, 01:42 PM
‏ @Ken_Rosenthal
Follow
Source: #Reds in agreement with Phillips: Six years, $72.5 million. First reported by @JimBowdenESPNxm
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal
It looks like ken Rosenthal has confirmed this.

Rosenthal adds that this is this year plus 5 years.

Ken Rosenthal ‏ @Ken_Rosenthal Reply Retweet Favorite Open
The Phillips deal with #Reds covers 2012 to '17.

Caveat Emperor
04-10-2012, 01:47 PM
Chris Heisey and Drew Stubbs should be tripping over themselves to go sign "I want to be a Red for life" contracts before sanity is regained in the front office.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 01:48 PM
He is already signed for this year. It's a 6 year extension, making it a 6 year commitment. We are already commited to him for one year.

Sounds like it's 6 years INCLUDING 2012 (which presumably gets renegotiated) so it's a commitment for 5 additional years.

Ghosts of 1990
04-10-2012, 01:52 PM
Chris Heisey and Drew Stubbs should be tripping over themselves to go sign "I want to be a Red for life" contracts before sanity is regained in the front office.

They need to do a 10 and 150 with Bruce first.

savafan
04-10-2012, 01:56 PM
At what point does Phillips' service time make him a 10 and 5 player? I'm thinking it would be sometime during the 2014 season.

westofyou
04-10-2012, 01:57 PM
Chris Heisey and Drew Stubbs should be tripping over themselves to go sign "I want to be a Red for life" contracts before sanity is regained in the front office.

No doubt, I'm flabbergasted

RichRed
04-10-2012, 02:01 PM
That settles it, the ghost of George Steinbrenner has seized control of the Reds front office.

RedsBaron
04-10-2012, 02:06 PM
Chris Heisey and Drew Stubbs should be tripping over themselves to go sign "I want to be a Red for life" contracts before sanity is regained in the front office.

I am considering asking Walt for a long term deal to remain a Reds fan....;)

lollipopcurve
04-10-2012, 02:06 PM
Congrats to BP. No player has been more pro-Cincinnati than he has.


OK -- Hamilton to CF, Gregorius to 3B. Keep Cozart at SS.

edabbs44
04-10-2012, 02:07 PM
Shocking.

klw
04-10-2012, 02:08 PM
Jon Heyman has also confirmed
http://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS

Jon Heyman ‏ @JonHeymanCBS Reply Retweet Favorite Open
brandon phillips and reds do have an agreement, as @JimBowdenESPNxm reported

Captain Hook
04-10-2012, 02:11 PM
I am considering asking Walt for a long term deal to remain a Reds fan....;)

I think in his mind he's already done that.

Congrats to BP!!!

smith288
04-10-2012, 02:12 PM
A little long for my taste. But will appreciate the FO is putting forth an effort.

oregonred
04-10-2012, 02:12 PM
More convinced than ever that the Reds know the TV deal is going to go well north of $50M per season starting in 2016.

No excuse for the fans not showing up for the next few seasons.

dunner13
04-10-2012, 02:13 PM
Congrats to BP. No player has been more pro-Cincinnati than he has.


OK -- Hamilton to CF, Gregorius to 3B. Keep Cozart at SS.

Hamilton to CF makes sense but I didn't think Gregorius had the bat to play third

LoganBuck
04-10-2012, 02:14 PM
I will go on record as not liking this. The Reds have middle infield options for the future, and they just tied up a bunch of money on a middle infielder whose value is tied to his range, and athleticism. This makes me nervous.

kaldaniels
04-10-2012, 02:15 PM
I was on record saying 12 per was too low, but I guess that 6th year made the contract look awful juicy.

sonny
04-10-2012, 02:16 PM
Wow. This is surreal.

bucksfan2
04-10-2012, 02:17 PM
A little long for my taste. But will appreciate the FO is putting forth an effort.

I think that is what everyone is saying. But in the reality they may have needed to go that extra year in order to get BP signed. I wouldn't have gone that far, but it appears as if the Reds are making a major effort to become serious contenders up until at least 2016. Now its up to the draft and development to compliment said players.

RedsManRick
04-10-2012, 02:18 PM
At what point does Phillips' service time make him a 10 and 5 player? I'm thinking it would be sometime during the 2014 season.

According to Cot's, he's at 7.022 years of service at the beginning of the year. So it looks like he'll pass 10 at the end of 2014.

Patrick Bateman
04-10-2012, 02:18 PM
It's a deal that has a low probability of adding surplus value... might break even if Phillips can maintain his production for another 3 years after the current year before falling off to a respectable level.

You have to wonder what non-baseball related value they think they are getting from this deal, the accounting certainly doens't seem to be consistent with a smart baseball deal.

smith288
04-10-2012, 02:21 PM
I think that is what everyone is saying. But in the reality they may have needed to go that extra year in order to get BP signed. I wouldn't have gone that far, but it appears as if the Reds are making a major effort to become serious contenders up until at least 2016. Now its up to the draft and development to compliment said players.
Well i wanted to add to my post count... So there. Looky, I did it again. *pumps fist*

klw
04-10-2012, 02:24 PM
The deal details could be interesting.
Per Fay
http://twitter.com/#!/johnfayman
John Fay ‏ @johnfayman

#Reds source confirms Phillips' deal. The 6-year, $72.5 million figure is correct. "But it's not that simple."

WildcatFan
04-10-2012, 02:25 PM
Hamilton to CF makes sense but I didn't think Gregorius had the bat to play third

I think Cozart does though.

KronoRed
04-10-2012, 02:26 PM
Thumbs down.

Ghosts of 1990
04-10-2012, 02:27 PM
Eh, I love it. I've always wanted to do this. This is what winning ownership groups do. Votto, Bruce, Phillips don't leave a boston or NY until the last year or two of their careers.

lollipopcurve
04-10-2012, 02:28 PM
but I didn't think Gregorius had the bat to play third

The good glove, good bat 3B is really tough to find. In the end, Vidal may be the better 3B prospect, but I like the idea of giving Didi a shot there first. He's got lefty pop, so maybe in a couple years that develops. And he's got a bazooka for an arm and a good glove, so he could end up an excellent defender over there. Reds are likely to have plus offense all over the diamond, so you don't really need a big bat at 3B. (Alternative, of course, would be to leave Didi at SS and move Cozart to 3rd.)

WildcatFan
04-10-2012, 02:29 PM
I'm really happy for BP. He's as important to this franchise as any player from the last 15 years. Overpaid, overcommitted, whatever. They're paying for the last of the three faces of this team to stay in the city that adores them.

kaldaniels
04-10-2012, 02:30 PM
I wonder how last nights cramp played into the psychology of today's signing.

klw
04-10-2012, 02:31 PM
Rosenthal story on the signing. Nothing really new in it.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cincinnati-reds-lock-up-brandon-phillips-six-year-deal-041012


The deal will replace Phillips’ current one-year, $12.5 million contract, and extend from 2012 to ’17, the source said.

cumberlandreds
04-10-2012, 02:31 PM
Unbelievable! Is this the Reds? I think its great! Phillips is the best defensive 2nd baseman in baseball. He has a web gem nearly every night. Plus he's a very good all around hitter. Seems like a good teammate and he's great with the fans. This is a good day for all Reds fans.

WildcatFan
04-10-2012, 02:32 PM
Rosenthal story on the signing. Nothing really new in it.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cincinnati-reds-lock-up-brandon-phillips-six-year-deal-041012

I'm interested in the throwaway line at the end.


Phillips, an immensely popular player in Cincinnati, also knew that he needed to accept a lesser contract to remain with the Reds.

fearofpopvol1
04-10-2012, 02:33 PM
Chris Heisey and Drew Stubbs should be tripping over themselves to go sign "I want to be a Red for life" contracts before sanity is regained in the front office.

:laugh:

This is the best post I've read in 2012 so far. I literally laughed out loud. :thumbup:

Cyclone792
04-10-2012, 02:36 PM
There's a whole pile of risk with this. Still, it's evident now that there are additional sources of revenue that the Reds either already have or strongly believe they will have (or a combination of both). Whether it's revenue sharing, a new TV deal, something else, there must be money flowing in to the ballclub.

All that said, the objective thinker in me is questioning this deal quite a bit and kind of cringes a bit when I think of how the last few years of this deal may look (highly paid, declining player). On the other hand, the fan in me is pretty stoked. It's obvious that the Reds have identified their window as starting now and stretching out over the next several seasons.

Ghosts of 1990
04-10-2012, 02:40 PM
Brandon has to be awfully happy.

Roy Tucker
04-10-2012, 02:42 PM
Yeah, I love BP but I don't like this deal.

BCast must be getting an exclusive on the cabbage market in China or something.

RichRed
04-10-2012, 02:42 PM
Brandon has to be awfully happy.

How long 'til he tweets that he's taking all of Cincinnati out for ice cream?

fearofpopvol1
04-10-2012, 02:51 PM
Well, replacing the current contract and making it a 6 year deal sounds a lot better than him getting a 6 year extension on top of this year.

This means that the deal will expire during the 2017 season when he's ages 35-36 and it appears the Reds will pay him an average of $12M a year. I would've preferred a year shorter and less money, but I don't think this deal is totally crazy or anything. I expect him to be very good for at least 3-4 of those seasons. I think he'll be good for the 5th season too, but maybe some decline. The last season could be rough, but the 35-36 season could be okay as well. I'll be curious to see the particulars of this deal.

Anyone think the Reds may trade him before he hits 10/5 rights? I think most of us wanted BP around longer than just this year, but what about 2-3 years from now or before he acquires his 10/5 rights? I also wonder if there is a built in no trade clause?

For the experts, how many WAR does Phillips need to be over the life of the 6 year contract for the Reds to breakeven?

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-10-2012, 02:53 PM
More convinced than ever that the Reds know the TV deal is going to go well north of $50M per season starting in 2016.

No excuse for the fans not showing up for the next few seasons.

- It's too cold
- It's too hot
- It's too windy
- It's a school night
- The game's on TV
- It's spring break
- Kids have soccer practice
- Nowhere to park
- Parking's too expensive
- Too much traffic
- It's too crowded downtown
- Beer is too expensive; cheaper to drink at home
- Too many drunks at game
- Tickets too expensive
- Can't afford it in this economy
- Get off work at 6, not enough time to go home then drive downtown

Blah blah blah

mattfeet
04-10-2012, 02:57 PM
The fact that this deal INCLUDES 2012 makes it MUCH better, IMO. This is effectively a 5yr extension at $12MM per.

Can someone answer me this:

Why would they tout this as a 6-yr deal when Phillips is already under contract, for the same value, in 2012? Why not just say we're extending Phillips 5yr/$60MM. I know it's semantics, but interesting nonetheless.

-Matt

Johnny Footstool
04-10-2012, 03:06 PM
There's a whole pile of risk with this. Still, it's evident now that there are additional sources of revenue that the Reds either already have or strongly believe they will have (or a combination of both). Whether it's revenue sharing, a new TV deal, something else, there must be money flowing in to the ballclub.

All that said, the objective thinker in me is questioning this deal quite a bit and kind of cringes a bit when I think of how the last few years of this deal may look (highly paid, declining player). On the other hand, the fan in me is pretty stoked. It's obvious that the Reds have identified their window as starting now and stretching out over the next several seasons.

Who buys the most tickets: the critical thinkers, or the fans?

I know the last 2 years of this deal are going to be ugly, and yet I don't care. I extremely excited that the front office is committing money to keeping the core of the ballclub intact.

LegallyMinded
04-10-2012, 03:07 PM
Here's (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1992&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=34,58&players=0) the leader board for the best seasons by second basemen age 34 or older in the past couple decades.

On the one hand, I find it encouraging that relatively old second basemen can still turn in elite seasons, and it makes me hopeful that the Reds won't be grossly overpaying Phillips the last few years of the deal.

On the other hand, the top of the leader board seems to be filled with second basemen who either had much more power or walked much more often than Phillips. As such, I'm worried that Phillips won't age as gracefully as some of the leaders, and it seems pretty likely the Reds will regret the last couple years on the deal.

Homer Bailey
04-10-2012, 03:07 PM
5 year/$60 million dollar extension sounds soooo much better.

MWM
04-10-2012, 03:08 PM
There's a whole pile of risk with this. Still, it's evident now that there are additional sources of revenue that the Reds either already have or strongly believe they will have (or a combination of both). Whether it's revenue sharing, a new TV deal, something else, there must be money flowing in to the ballclub.

All that said, the objective thinker in me is questioning this deal quite a bit and kind of cringes a bit when I think of how the last few years of this deal may look (highly paid, declining player). On the other hand, the fan in me is pretty stoked. It's obvious that the Reds have identified their window as starting now and stretching out over the next several seasons.

+1

REDREAD
04-10-2012, 03:10 PM
I'm happy with this deal.
We might not get much bang for the buck the last 2 years,
but we should get good value for the next 3 years, when we need it the most.

It's the same as giving him a 4 year deal at 15 million per, and the fifth year is free. At 15 million/year, he's slightly overpaid, but not excessively.

The Reds had no replacement for Phillips if he left. He's probalby the only leadoff hitter we have. It was important to keep him to contend in 2013-14.

Cyclone792
04-10-2012, 03:11 PM
Who buys the most tickets: the critical thinkers, or the fans?

I know the last 2 years of this deal are going to be ugly, and yet I don't care. I extremely excited that the front office is committing money to keeping the core of the ballclub intact.

Of course it's the fans.

But then again the fans are the first to stop buying tickets when the potential landmines presented by the critical thinkers actually explode.

klw
04-10-2012, 03:12 PM
Press Conference at 4pm. Reds confirm deal via twitter.

http://twitter.com/#!/Reds

Reds ‏ @Reds
#Reds @DatDudeBP agrees to 6-year contract through 2017. Press conference at 4:00 at GABP.

Caveat Emperor
04-10-2012, 03:20 PM
Of course it's the fans.

But then again the fans are the first to stop buying tickets when the potential landmines presented by the critical thinkers actually explode.

Toss the dice.

If it works out, you're planning dedication ceremonies for a new group of statues -- Votto (bat extended in HR swing), Phillips (throwing off balance to first) and Cueto (back turned in funky mid-windup). If it bombs, you're talking about, potentially, another lost decade of fans.

Feelin' lucky, Reds fans?

RANDY IN INDY
04-10-2012, 03:21 PM
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Personally, I'm glad to be able to watch BP in a Reds uniform for a few more years.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 03:28 PM
Look at it this way, for 2014-2017, he's getting the money that had been been given to Arroyo.

Fair trade off.

And "5 year extension" does sound much better than 6.

I still don't love the deal, but I love BP so I'll live with it. And, of course, it's not my money and all that stuff.

HeatherC1212
04-10-2012, 03:31 PM
I guess I should finally buy a t-shirt or something that has Brandon's name on it.... :p

Congrats on the new deal DatDudeBP! :D

M2
04-10-2012, 03:35 PM
Just a guess, but they probably needed to give the extra year to keep the annual average down around $12M.

With the caveat that all long-term extensions to players in their 30s are fraught with danger, as a fan I like Phillips. He makes the game fun and he's not boring.

Roy Tucker
04-10-2012, 03:35 PM
And "5 year extension" does sound much better than 6.

I still don't love the deal, but I love BP so I'll live with it. And, of course, it's not my money and all that stuff.

+1.

The fan in me loves it but the bean counter in me says "gulp".

But I also need to shake myself soundly and smack my head. After all the cruddy ownership we've had for so long, how in the world can I now complain about management driving a stake in the ground and making big time commitments to winning? Shut up and be happy Roy!

These are all the kinds of things BCast meant when he said "the losing stops now".

redsmetz
04-10-2012, 03:38 PM
Not to take this down a different tangent, but I wonder how much the finances of the upcoming draft and international signing limitations help with this? Obviously, it's not a huge amount, but I suspect there will be savings there that can be put towards present day salaries.

klw
04-10-2012, 03:39 PM
Mark Sheldon tweeted that the Press Conf will be live on MLB.com at 4pm

from dat due BP brother 404 Pete

http://twitter.com/#!/404pete
PJ Phillips ‏ @404pete

Maaaaaaan Big Bruh just got dat check... It's Turn ^ time now!!!!!