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View Full Version : Why Brandon Phillips will get 5 years:



NorrisHopper30
04-06-2012, 11:06 AM
It's clear with the Votto signing that management is all in on these next 2-5 years, which just happens to be right before a new TV deal. TV deals are the #1 source of money for these teams, look at how the Rangers have transformed in the past few years..

Anyways, back to the original point. Brandon, although he is getting old and will start regressing this year or in the next 1-2 years, is a face of this team. The way he's acted off the field in his time as a Red is getting him this 5 year deal. How he interacts with fans on Twitter and his smile are getting him this 5 year deal. Believe it or not, he is right up there next to Joey Votto in terms of getting people to watch this team on TV which is exactly why we need him to get this huge TV deal that the Castellini's seem to be banking on.

Obviously, I'd much prefer a 3 year contract just because I don't want to see my team pay a 35 year old 2b who relies on athleticism ~15M at the end of the contract.

I guess it's nice to see management taking a risk!

Let's hope we get this TV deal...

lidspinner
04-06-2012, 11:49 AM
we are treading into new waters with this TV deal stuff as fans....I am not sure the average fan understands the magnitude that this TV deal has on the future of our Reds....I hate the fact that Titles will be won and lost because of TV deals but that is just the era that we are in....if we can put together a few years of dominate teams and make some long runs in the playoffs or even make a World Series appearance then our tv deal could be worth a ton more so these next few years are major as far as how much we can profit from Fox sports or STO or any other TV deal we might get......

I got the chance to sit down and talk to a fella in the office of the Reds a year ago and he was 100% serious when he said the 20 year future of this team rests at the feet of the players we have right now and how they play between then and the end of our TV contract with FSO.....If our players can market this team into something that ESPN and other media outlets want to follow then we could be the next Texas Rangers.....we could be the next Angles.....there is a TON of money to be had yearly in these TV deals and when you have an owner like BCast who really wants to win as bad as anyone then we can be rest assured that he will put 100% of the TV money right back into this team.....We are in perfect postion to come out on top as long as we dont implode as a team....we are young, have good pitching, somewhat good pitching depth and great defense and a above average minor league system.....we are setting ourselves up to be major players in the free agent market and major players in bringing up our own homegrown talent for years to come.....

This TV deal could be the best thing thats ever happened to the Reds as far as us fans are concerned.....

Krawhitham
04-06-2012, 01:07 PM
Brandon Phillips will not be any good in five years

TuneSquad
04-06-2012, 01:15 PM
I completely disagree with you Krawhitham. If you could explain why you think that it would be nice. He has incredible hands in the field and he may lose his range a bit through the years, but i dont see his fielding decreasing too much. As for his swing he may get a bit slower but again, his hands are too good imo for him to decrease in production too much

joshua
04-06-2012, 01:34 PM
If he's hitting .265 and his fielding is above league average in five years, it's worth the money to have him for the next three. He's showed no signs of getting worse, and may actually get better over the next two-three seasons. And if he does fall off, we have plenty of young guys waiting to come up to split time with him. Absolutely worth the money.

Krawhitham
04-06-2012, 04:05 PM
I completely disagree with you Krawhitham. If you could explain why you think that it would be nice. He has incredible hands in the field and he may lose his range a bit through the years, but i dont see his fielding decreasing too much. As for his swing he may get a bit slower but again, his hands are too good imo for him to decrease in production too much

Five years ago he was a 30hr-30sb man (33 SB with 8CS)

The last two season he has averaged 18 HR
The last two seasons he has averaged 15 SB with 11 CS

He is a career .272 hitter, he had a career season last season (average wise), there is no reason to believe a veteran of 10 years will start hitting 30 points above his career average. It was a blip not a trend

The average peak age for MLB players is 28.8 years old, BP is already on the downside of his career and signing him to 5 year deal now at 13 mill/per is insane. A five year deal takes him to age 36.

BP is a player that relies on speed and defense as his main two weapons, speed and defense are the 1st two weapons a players loses. He has already lost a lot of speed, where do you think he will be in 5 years. Like I said he has gone from 33 SB (80% success rate) to 15 (57% success rate), he is already half the man he use to be. In another 5 years he will have nothing left.


If BP had always put up 18hr & 15 SB year in and year out, then it might be a deal to think about, but we are talking about someone who is rapidly declining. If he stays on this trajectory, like I said before BP he will not be any good in five years.

DGullett35
04-06-2012, 04:20 PM
But...He puts people in the seats, and is the face of this franchise at the current time. Re-signing him is a must IMO and I think it will get done. Theres more to who gets signed and who doesnt than what just happens on the field. Obviously what happens on the field is what really matters and I think BP's production warrants him a new contract and if we overpay just a bit I wont be too worried. Im happy ownership and management are locking our best players up instead of letting them walk. Everyone should just be happy that at least they're willing to spend the dough to make this team a contender. At least they're trying and I cannot complain about that. This kind of stuff makes the fans want to attend more games or buy more gear(Ive now ordered a Votto jersey since hes not leaving anytime soon). I give this organization an A grade for the past offseason and for the start of the 2012 season. Now hopefully we don't ruin Chapman and Id also like to sign Oswalt(20 starts from him would be nice, and would give us some much needed depth for late in the season):) Please and thank you Walt

Krawhitham
04-06-2012, 10:54 PM
Votto is the face of the franchise and has been since he won the MVP award. Whenever ESPN advertises a Reds game they show and mention Joey Votto.

Just because BP likes to twitter does not make him the face of this franchise

RedsfaninMT
04-06-2012, 11:09 PM
Five years ago he was a 30hr-30sb man (33 SB with 8CS)

The last two season he has averaged 18 HR
The last two seasons he has averaged 15 SB with 11 CS

He is a career .272 hitter, he had a career season last season (average wise), there is no reason to believe a veteran of 10 years will start hitting 30 points above his career average. It was a blip not a trend

The average peak age for MLB players is 28.8 years old, BP is already on the downside of his career and signing him to 5 year deal now at 13 mill/per is insane. A five year deal takes him to age 36.

BP is a player that relies on speed and defense as his main two weapons, speed and defense are the 1st two weapons a players loses. He has already lost a lot of speed, where do you think he will be in 5 years. Like I said he has gone from 33 SB (80% success rate) to 15 (57% success rate), he is already half the man he use to be. In another 5 years he will have nothing left.


If BP had always put up 18hr & 15 SB year in and year out, then it might be a deal to think about, but we are talking about someone who is rapidly declining. If he stays on this trajectory, like I said before BP he will not be any good in five years.

Aside from baseball logic you are truly depressing me. I am over 50, so I guess that makes me what, 10% of the man I used to be? Never mind, if BP has nothing left in 5 years, than relatively speaking, I am a gonner.

From a truly baseball standpoint, I have not seen a rapid decline in BP's game, but I think three years from now, we all will see such a decline. I figure about three years ought to get Hamilton up to Cincy, and if he has learned to bunt well by then, I don't want anybody getting in his way of playing time. I love BP's attitude, but the Reds can't keep their young talent away longer than they have to and still be able to succeed.

DaytonFlyer
04-07-2012, 10:14 AM
Votto is the face of the franchise and has been since he won the MVP award. Whenever ESPN advertises a Reds game they show and mention Joey Votto.

Just because BP likes to twitter does not make him the face of this franchise

Whenever the game is on Fox national TV, they mic up Brandon Phillips. Why? Because he is a good personality that draws eyes and people to the stadium.

I bet you really liked Ryan Freel, because he kept his head down and was "scrappy".

BP is a great guy, and a great second baseman. I would love to see him signed for another 5 years.

big boy
04-07-2012, 10:21 AM
Five years ago he was a 30hr-30sb man (33 SB with 8CS)

The last two season he has averaged 18 HR
The last two seasons he has averaged 15 SB with 11 CS

He is a career .272 hitter, he had a career season last season (average wise), there is no reason to believe a veteran of 10 years will start hitting 30 points above his career average. It was a blip not a trend

The average peak age for MLB players is 28.8 years old, BP is already on the downside of his career and signing him to 5 year deal now at 13 mill/per is insane. A five year deal takes him to age 36.

BP is a player that relies on speed and defense as his main two weapons, speed and defense are the 1st two weapons a players loses. He has already lost a lot of speed, where do you think he will be in 5 years. Like I said he has gone from 33 SB (80% success rate) to 15 (57% success rate), he is already half the man he use to be. In another 5 years he will have nothing left.


If BP had always put up 18hr & 15 SB year in and year out, then it might be a deal to think about, but we are talking about someone who is rapidly declining. If he stays on this trajectory, like I said before BP he will not be any good in five years.

There just isn't a huge list of middle infielders who improved after the age of 34. Look at Derek Jeter who is a below average shortstop.

Giving BP any kind of deal would be nuts even if we all love to watch him play.

DaytonFlyer
04-07-2012, 10:24 AM
He doesn't have to improve. He just has to not regress terribly and keep playing gold glove defense.

NorrisHopper30
04-07-2012, 11:26 AM
I don't think he'll be much in 5 years, but at this point I don't think that's why we are signing him. He should be serviceable in 5 years. That's why I prefer 4.

To defend BP here, I think he's at the top of his career offensively last year and hopefully this year. He's shown more patience than he's ever shown and his OBP was at a career high last year...he's going to have to continue to adjust at the plate as he gets older which is good that he is already adjusting. Once you lose power and speed in your swing you have to change it up at the plate.

SidneySlicker
04-07-2012, 12:48 PM
There should be no rush to sign BP in my opinion. Offer him a fair contract and if he doesn't like it let him go to Free Agency. Then be competitive with other offers and let Brandon decide whether or not he wants to stay a Red. While I think he's one of the top 2nd basemen in baseball, i'm not for overpaying an aging 2nd basemen. Players only drive tv ratings so far and after that point, winning does.

DocRed
04-07-2012, 03:06 PM
Five years ago he was a 30hr-30sb man (33 SB with 8CS)

The last two season he has averaged 18 HR
The last two seasons he has averaged 15 SB with 11 CS

He is a career .272 hitter, he had a career season last season (average wise), there is no reason to believe a veteran of 10 years will start hitting 30 points above his career average. It was a blip not a trend

The average peak age for MLB players is 28.8 years old, BP is already on the downside of his career and signing him to 5 year deal now at 13 mill/per is insane. A five year deal takes him to age 36.

BP is a player that relies on speed and defense as his main two weapons, speed and defense are the 1st two weapons a players loses. He has already lost a lot of speed, where do you think he will be in 5 years. Like I said he has gone from 33 SB (80% success rate) to 15 (57% success rate), he is already half the man he use to be. In another 5 years he will have nothing left.


If BP had always put up 18hr & 15 SB year in and year out, then it might be a deal to think about, but we are talking about someone who is rapidly declining. If he stays on this trajectory, like I said before BP he will not be any good in five years.

The Emperor would be proud of you, as it is evident your hate for BP is strong. I love how you conveniently leave out other key stats to make your point. So let's examine......

5 years ago his batting ave. was .288. Last year it was a a career high of .300.
5 Years ago his OBP was .331. Last year it was a career high of .353.
5 years ago his SO's were 109. Last year they were 85.
5 years ago his WAR was 2.0. Last year it was a career high 4.1.
5 years ago his OPS+ was 105. Last year it was a career high 119.
Oh ya, he also won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award last year....didn't win either 5 years ago. Odd for a player in decline....

See what I did there? Isn't it cool how one can manipulate stats to support one's case?

Krawhitham
04-07-2012, 08:03 PM
Whenever the game is on Fox national TV, they mic up Brandon Phillips. Why? Because he is a good personality that draws eyes and people to the stadium.

He is the only person on the team that wants to do it, he volunteers for it while Votto refuses to do it

Phillips does self promotion better than anything else including baseball


Phillips would rather be a personality than a baseball player

Krawhitham
04-07-2012, 08:22 PM
The Emperor would be proud of you, as it is evident your hate for BP is strong. I love how you conveniently leave out other key stats to make your point. So let's examine......

5 years ago his batting ave. was .288. Last year it was a a career high of .300.
5 Years ago his OBP was .331. Last year it was a career high of .353.
5 years ago his SO's were 109. Last year they were 85.
5 years ago his WAR was 2.0. Last year it was a career high 4.1.
5 years ago his OPS+ was 105. Last year it was a career high 119.
Oh ya, he also won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award last year....didn't win either 5 years ago. Odd for a player in decline....

See what I did there? Isn't it cool how one can manipulate stats to support one's case?

I did not manipulate any stats, I simply use Home Runs and Stolen Bases

If you are trying to claim his Speed and Power have not rapidly declined you are fooling yourself

Since his power and speed has declined that much in 5 years what will another 5 years be like

DaytonFlyer
04-10-2012, 01:25 PM
Looks like he's not getting 5 years... he's getting 6.

6 yrs/$72.5 million according to posts on ORG... via twitter and other "unconfirmed" sources.

osuredleg24
04-10-2012, 01:27 PM
:bang:

I like BP, but not for that contract

Ironman92
04-10-2012, 01:37 PM
Looks like he's not getting 5 years... he's getting 6.

6 yrs/$72.5 million according to posts on ORG... via twitter and other "unconfirmed" sources.

Little surprising....but OK. He's a tremendous talent but I don't trust him that much. Good commitment effort by the Reds but I would rather have had him at 3 years $40 million

KYRedLeg
04-10-2012, 01:37 PM
Absolutely insane. I want to see Gregorious/Hamilton up here, not a 36 year old BP...