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The Rage
04-09-2012, 10:05 PM
are the same guy. Big,long,power pitchers. I am watching some of Mat's opener and am amazed how similiar they look.

Neither got their marbles all together yet. Both throwing about at 91-94mph. I bet if both stay healthy, they are going 94-97 by May.

Bailey hasn't had the chance the last 2 years with the injury problems.

Now back to the typical Redszone Bailey hating diatribes.

R_Webb18
04-09-2012, 10:10 PM
i think most agree bailey has the tools but at the same time most watch the games. he flat out sucks. yea arroyo sucks and if he gives up 4 i feel good with that. just not 5+. with bailey he can't do that. also he gave up 4 in the 1st inning you can't do that. it killed us last year.

malcontent
04-09-2012, 10:20 PM
are the same guy. Big,long,power pitchers. I am watching some of Mat's opener and am amazed how similiar they look.

Neither got their marbles all together yet. Both throwing about at 91-94mph. I bet if both stay healthy, they are going 94-97 by May.
I don't think Bailey has touched 97 since 2007. If then.

The Rage
04-09-2012, 10:21 PM
i think most agree bailey has the tools but at the same time most watch the games. he flat out sucks. yea arroyo sucks and if he gives up 4 i feel good with that. just not 5+. with bailey he can't do that. also he gave up 4 in the 1st inning you can't do that. it killed us last year.

Bailey was throwing 89-90mph in the first!!!! Clearly not loose, April "hangovers" or not quite ready time is not new. Patience laddy, patience.

BluegrassRedleg
04-09-2012, 10:22 PM
Bailey doesn't have near the stuff that Latos has. When Latos is on, he's absolutely nasty. I've never really seen much difference in Good Homer and Bad Homer, other than location. I know that's a big other, but I've never really seen the stuff from him where you go "Wow, that was nasty."

malcontent
04-09-2012, 10:23 PM
Bailey doesn't have near the stuff that Latos has. When Latos is on, he's absolutely nasty. I've never really seen much difference in Good Homer and Bad Homer, other than location. I know that's a big other, but I've never really seen the stuff from him where you go "Wow, that was nasty."
Agree.

The Rage
04-09-2012, 10:28 PM
Bailey doesn't have near the stuff that Latos has. When Latos is on, he's absolutely nasty. I've never really seen much difference in Good Homer and Bad Homer, other than location. I know that's a big other, but I've never really seen the stuff from him where you go "Wow, that was nasty."

Bailey hit 97mph in 2009, the last time he wasn't injured.......hmmmmm.

Bailey has every bit the stuff of Latos. Again, allow Homer to build into the "fireballing madman" persona and lets talk again. Patience, patience.

He almost pitched a 7I 0R game tonight if he could have gotten warmer quicker. The difference in fastball velocity was quite noticeable between the
1st-3rd inning.

Ironman92
04-09-2012, 10:31 PM
Latos is younger and has surpassed 9 wins in a season.

The Rage
04-09-2012, 10:35 PM
Latos is younger and has surpassed 9 wins in a season.

Bailey may have had a 20 win season if he had been healthy last year. Wins don't mean jack.

KYRedLeg
04-09-2012, 10:52 PM
Bailey doesn't have near the stuff that Latos has. When Latos is on, he's absolutely nasty. I've never really seen much difference in Good Homer and Bad Homer, other than location. I know that's a big other, but I've never really seen the stuff from him where you go "Wow, that was nasty."

Latos hasn't had enough of an opportunity to disappoint me yet. I have high hopes for him once the jitters move out, and warm weather moves in.

Same can't be said for Bailey. Homer's inconsistent, and he's a headcase. Flashes of brilliance marred by.....what happened tonight. This isn't just a reaction to "one game," but to a couple of years of the same old thing.

DirtyBaker
04-09-2012, 10:59 PM
Bailey is only starting out of necessity. Masset and Madsen start off the year healthy and Chapman is the 5th starter instead of the bullpen.

All signs point to Bailey being our Edinson Volquez of 2012.

Ironman92
04-09-2012, 10:59 PM
Bailey may have had a 20 win season if he had been healthy last year. Wins don't mean jack.

Ok. If he may have had 20 if not for injuries....then why have the Homer-type threads?

He had 9 (apparently meaningless) wins last year...his career high....did he miss 55% of the season???

Ironman92
04-09-2012, 11:10 PM
He had 22 starts last year....was he slated for 49 starts? That's what it would've taken.

I guess I can handle him never having a double digit number in the win column since he always pitches 180+ innings with an excellent WHIP.

TuneSquad
04-09-2012, 11:16 PM
I personally believe we need to see a full 30+ start season from homer to see his deep down true colors... Not sure that will ever happen (fingers crossed)

Mutaman
04-09-2012, 11:32 PM
Wow if Homer was just healthy hed be in the Hall of Fame!

This thread is pretty foolish.

The DARK
04-09-2012, 11:51 PM
Bailey's difficult to assess. On one hand, he's often been too injured to put up reliable stats, prone to getting blown up in one inning, and underperforms his peripherals. All that suggests a guy who's waiting for a breakout season. On the other hand, he's been in the majors since 2007 and doesn't have a marquee season to his name. His stuff has only diminished as time has gone on, and he's never had success without sufficient time to warm up. So how do you treat him going forward? #3 with #2 potential starter, or borderline #5 with likelihood of injury?

It's way too early to start asking the same questions about Latos. Latos has much better stuff, no injury history, and is only playing his third full MLB season. You have to consider him MOR at the very least going forward; one rough start is nothing in the long run.

LaFlamaBlanca
04-10-2012, 01:05 AM
Bailey may have had a 20 win season if he had been healthy last year. Wins don't mean jack.


Bailey hit 97mph in 2009, the last time he wasn't injured.......hmmmmm.

Bailey has every bit the stuff of Latos. Again, allow Homer to build into the "fireballing madman" persona and lets talk again. Patience, patience.

He almost pitched a 7I 0R game tonight if he could have gotten warmer quicker. The difference in fastball velocity was quite noticeable between the
1st-3rd inning.

Uh, no, he wouldn't have, and uh, no, he almost did not. :laugh:

What exactly is your excuse for Homer not being "warmed up" in the 1st inning? He had plenty of work this spring. It wasn't his debut game. He wasn't visibly nervous. He's been in the show how long, and he doesn't know how to warm up? Doesn't really pass the logic test.

joshua
04-10-2012, 02:44 AM
With Chapman knocking on the door this spring, I'm wondering what's going to happen once Bray is 100% and we start seeing guys like Francis and Hoover tearing it up on the farm. What will we do with Bailey then? The likely scenario is trading him, but what could we get in return? The more he goes out there and flings turds, the less he's going to be worth.

brm7675
04-10-2012, 11:07 AM
Pitching is a 50/50 position. Bailey is about a 50/20 pitcher at this point. He has the 50 in ability but only about 20 in the mental makeup needed to be a quality pitcher...

S.Wells
04-10-2012, 11:59 AM
Pitching is a 50/50 position. Bailey is about a 50/20 pitcher at this point. He has the 50 in ability but only about 20 in the mental makeup needed to be a quality pitcher...

I agree with this. Homer was rushed to the bigs and got rocked early and often. Then the injuries became a problem. I think he doubts his abilities. I truly believe Homer just needs 3 good quality starts in a row. He has the stuff just needs the confidence. I say he wins 12-15 this year which is all you can ask from your #5 starter.


Now as far as Homer and Latos being the same. I see the similarities. But the mentality is different. Latos should bounce back just fine from his last outing. Homer I'm not so sure about but we can hope.


Sent from my C771 using Tapatalk 2

LeDoux
04-10-2012, 02:22 PM
Bailey is a tough one to figure out. He has somewhat consistenly posted good peripherals and consistently posted a ~4.50 ERA. Why this is I do not know. The only statistical explanation that I can think of would be that he is clustering his walks and hits together. The Bailey "big inning." I wish I has some number to see if this clustering is true. Why would Bailey cluster his hits and walks more than other pitchers? Lack of focus? Uncomfortable from the stretch? Bad pitch selection? ... I have no idea. However, I'd like to think there is a solution.

WrightRed
04-10-2012, 02:57 PM
He almost pitched a 7I 0R game tonight if he could have gotten warmer quicker.

This reminds me of the Bengals v. Browns game in 2011 when Cedric Benson tore off a 35 yd TD at the end of the game. Everyone was commenting how he would of had a terrible game if it weren't for that one run. But the fact remains that he did make that run. Just like Homer did give up 4 runs in the first.

The Rage
04-10-2012, 03:46 PM
With Chapman knocking on the door this spring, I'm wondering what's going to happen once Bray is 100% and we start seeing guys like Francis and Hoover tearing it up on the farm. What will we do with Bailey then? The likely scenario is trading him, but what could we get in return? The more he goes out there and flings turds, the less he's going to be worth.

lol. Francis is a junk pitcher that sucked worse than Bailey last year. Hoover? Really? This post is so bad, it should be abolished. Bailey flung a turd? Where? Latos was worse.

Bailey was throwing freaking 89-90mph in the first inning after not throwing for a awhile after his spring training prep. It took him 30 pitches to get back into the swing of things. Maybe, just maybe, you ought to educate yourself and learn to be less scat.

brm7675
04-10-2012, 04:20 PM
lol. Francis is a junk pitcher that sucked worse than Bailey last year. Hoover? Really? This post is so bad, it should be abolished. Bailey flung a turd? Where? Latos was worse.

Bailey was throwing freaking 89-90mph in the first inning after not throwing for a awhile after his spring training prep. It took him 30 pitches to get back into the swing of things. Maybe, just maybe, you ought to educate yourself and learn to be less scat.

Latos has had a much better career to this point then Homer could ever dream about...Bailey is a bust, sooner we move on the better we are..

LaFlamaBlanca
04-10-2012, 04:32 PM
lol. Francis is a junk pitcher that sucked worse than Bailey last year. Hoover? Really? This post is so bad, it should be abolished. Bailey flung a turd? Where? Latos was worse.

Bailey was throwing freaking 89-90mph in the first inning after not throwing for a awhile after his spring training prep. It took him 30 pitches to get back into the swing of things. Maybe, just maybe, you ought to educate yourself and learn to be less scat.

Oh really? You mean Jeff Francis, the pitcher with the 2.6 WAR last year, pales in comparison to Homer Bailey and his 1.5 WAR?

What alternate reality are these ideas coming from?

The DARK
04-10-2012, 04:45 PM
Oh really? You mean Jeff Francis, the pitcher with the 2.6 WAR last year, pales in comparison to Homer Bailey and his 1.5 WAR?

What alternate reality are these ideas coming from?

Francis pitched 51 more innings than Bailey last season. That alone makes up for most of the discrepancy. Couple that with Bailey's consistently better peripherals and youth, and all signs point to him being better going forward. That's not to mention Francis's poor fastball velocity and declining K rates don't project him as an MLB starter going forward. There's a reason he only got a minor league contract this season.

LaFlamaBlanca
04-10-2012, 04:56 PM
Francis pitched 51 more innings than Bailey last season. That alone makes up for most of the discrepancy. Couple that with Bailey's consistently better peripherals and youth, and all signs point to him being better going forward. That's not to mention Francis's poor fastball velocity and declining K rates don't project him as an MLB starter going forward. There's a reason he only got a minor league contract this season.

If you'd like to portray the fact that Homer has never topped 132.0 IP in approximately 4 meaningful seasons with the Reds as a positive, then I suppose that's your right. It still doesn't change the fact that Jeff Francis was more valuable to his baseball team last year than Homer was to ours, which makes the assertion the poster made that comparing the two was similar to a Pujols-Janish matchup somewhat preposterous.

ukwazoo
04-10-2012, 11:59 PM
Comparing Bailey to Latos is like comparing Stubbs to Bruce. You either are a family member or a friend of Homer's.