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Kc61
04-10-2012, 08:15 PM
Not a panic thread, just raising some questions.

Does it make sense to have two right handed hitters playing LF? I know Heisey has had success against RHP as has Ludwick over his career. But the Reds have no stud LFer, if you are using average players, why not a lefty righty platoon that will give Reds the percentages in their favor?

At this stage of his career can Rolen hold down the cleanup spot? This is an important spot, between Votto and Bruce. I don't have a better candidate but you wonder if Rolen still has enough in the tank.

Should Drew Stubbs be playing every single day? He had major hitting problems in 2011, why should Stubbs be sent up there 600 plus times? Not saying he should platoon, his defense is valuable, but with Heisey around why not sit Drew against tough righties? Drew has trouble with them.

These are the three big offensive issues I see early. Comments?

mth123
04-10-2012, 08:37 PM
Nice post KC. I think Stubbs, Rolen and LF are the key questions on this team. I'm optimistic about Ludwick, but I really think the team missed the boat by not dealing for Seth Smith and moving Francisco as the only likely LH counterpart to Rolen. Both moves are looking like mistakes to me at this point. I share your opinion that the roster is too loaded with RH bats who struggle against RHP. I'm a skeptic on both Stubbs and Rolen and wish the Reds had a couple lefty bats that could take some PT away (with a LH LF taking Heisey's load so Heisey could play more in CF).

membengal
04-10-2012, 08:46 PM
Another early question people had was over Cozart. Turns out he can hit and the 2nd spot in the line-up looks fine for him.

As for the other questions...well addressed KC. Same ones the team had and really didn't address this off-season.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 08:47 PM
Nice post KC. I think Stubbs, Rolen and LF are the key questions on this team. I'm optimistic about Ludwick, but I really think the team missed the boat by not dealing for Seth Smith and moving Francisco as the only likely LH counterpart to Rolen. Both moves are looking like mistakes to me at this point. I share your opinion that the roster is too loaded with RH bats who struggle against RHP. I'm a skeptic on both Stubbs and Rolen and wish the Reds had a couple lefty bats that could take some PT away (with a LH LF taking Heisey's load so Heisey could play more in CF).

One move they could make is to replace Willie Harris on the roster with a better left handed hitter who can platoon in LF. Would require a trade, I don't see that player at AAA.

An outfield of Bruce, LHH, Ludwick, Heisey, and Stubbs would be an improvement. I would then use Heisey in CF some nights to spell Stubbs.

That one move could really help things against RHP over the season.

As for Rolen, let's see how he does with Cairo backing him. Maybe the veteran duo has one more good year in them. I'm just not sure, it's a question.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 08:57 PM
Another early question people had was over Cozart. Turns out he can hit and the 2nd spot in the line-up looks fine for him.

As for the other questions...well addressed KC. Same ones the team had and really didn't address this off-season.

If Cozart keeps hitting well, it will really improve the Reds. The team has had such terrible table setters over the years. Phillips and Cozart could be a fine lead in combo for Votto.

mth123
04-10-2012, 09:05 PM
One move they could make is to replace Willie Harris on the roster with a better left handed hitter who can platoon in LF. Would require a trade, I don't see that player at AAA.

An outfield of Bruce, LHH, Ludwick, Heisey, and Stubbs would be an improvement. I would then use Heisey in CF some nights to spell Stubbs.

That one move could really help things against RHP over the season.

As for Rolen, let's see how he does with Cairo backing him. Maybe the veteran duo has one more good year in them. I'm just not sure, it's a question.

I'm fine with Rolen starting about 100 games at 3B and hitting 7th. I hate the idea of him cleaning up and really dislike that the team is relying on a lefty killer like Cairo to back him up when, at this point, Rolen's strength is also against lefty pitching. One of these guys will be sitting when they are most likely to be strong and too much PT against RHP could very well turn this tandem from a strength to a liability.

wheels
04-10-2012, 09:19 PM
I really believe Walt will address the lefty bat issues. He's just got to. Will he be able to do it soon enough is the question.

Who is left to deal? Who is available? Those are two more questions.

I'm deeply troubled by the offensive configuration of this club as it stands, and it's got nothing to do with the past two ballgames.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 09:29 PM
I really believe Walt will address the lefty bat issues. He's just got to. Will he be able to do it soon enough is the question.

Who is left to deal? Who is available? Those are two more questions.

I'm deeply troubled by the offensive configuration of this club as it stands, and it's got nothing to do with the past two ballgames.

He has plenty of trade bait, Heisey, prospects, maybe even a starting pitcher to make room for Aroldis in the rotation.

Not sure who is available.

membengal
04-10-2012, 09:32 PM
Willie Harris sure doesn't look like the answer to any question that matters.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 09:48 PM
Reds used six righty hitters against Lohse and the bullpen tonight.

These six righties and the righty pinch hitters had one hit combined. By Cozart.

With the current offensive structure, guys like Nolasco, Westbrook and Lohse will beat the Reds frequently. Pretty good right handed starters.

Notice how the Cards are structured. Righties, lefties, switch hitters. Balance.

Oh well, a lefty tomorrow, maybe the Reds will do something. (Although no Phillips.)

alexad
04-10-2012, 09:53 PM
When the starters are only getting 4 hits a night you have to look at the rest of the lineup as well. Votto looks lost at the plate right now. Phillips has struggled. Into tonight 3 of Bruces hits were home runs. This team has to hit and get on base. LF is not the overall problem. This team has to has to hit and get people to come to the games.

Kc61
04-10-2012, 09:56 PM
When the starters are only getting 4 hits a night you have to look at the rest of the lineup as well. Votto looks lost at the plate right now. Phillips has struggled. Into tonight 3 of Bruces hits were home runs. This team has to hit and get on base. LF is not the overall problem. This team has to has to hit and get people to come to the games.

No doubt that Votto's slump is an issue. Phillips was doing ok, but is out now.

I think this thread is dealing more with structural issues, not so much the current team slump.

I still say that a Heisey/Ludwick platoon makes no sense. Rolen at cleanup is iffy. And Stubbs is poor against RHP and needs to sit some.

M2
04-10-2012, 09:56 PM
Production from the OF is going to be a critical need. Walt really needs to find a LHB who can play out there (CF or LF).

OesterPoster
04-10-2012, 09:58 PM
I don't think Votto has been seeing much to hit, and why should he with Rolen as "protection"?

MikeThierry
04-10-2012, 10:03 PM
I'm not trying to criticize here but I have no idea why Rolen is batting cleanup. I couldn't care less about match up issues involving Bruce. Bruce is just a better threat as a 4th hitter. Plus, I'm looking at his splits from last season and there isn't a drastic drop off in production facing left handed pitchers. He did bat 20 points lower against left handers but he SLG'd nearly 30 points higher against left handed pitchers.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 10:04 PM
Production from the OF is going to be a critical need. Walt really needs to find a LHB who can play out there (CF or LF).

Carlos Beltran would have been nice.

MikeThierry
04-10-2012, 10:05 PM
Carlos Beltran would have been nice.

:)

wheels
04-10-2012, 10:06 PM
I really wonder what the Yankees would ask for in return for Brett Gardner. I love that guy's game, and he could solve more than one problem for the offense.

CesarGeronimo
04-10-2012, 10:35 PM
I'm not trying to criticize here but I have no idea why Rolen is batting cleanup.

Respect.

Ghosts of 1990
04-10-2012, 11:31 PM
Just do not understand why Rolen has to hit fourth and Dusty can't go back to Bruce and Votto 3/4. He did it for a while last season and no one died, so why not now. It's really silly. Rolen is so overmatched at this stage in his career he's probably a 6 or 7 hitter.

Kc61
04-11-2012, 12:19 AM
Just do not understand why Rolen has to hit fourth and Dusty can't go back to Bruce and Votto 3/4. He did it for a while last season and no one died, so why not now. It's really silly. Rolen is so overmatched at this stage in his career he's probably a 6 or 7 hitter.

I usually would disfavor hitting Votto and Bruce together. Only two lefties in the lineup, back to back.

But against RHP, there really isn't another good choice. Votto Bruce is so much more potent than any other 3-4 combo it's likely necessary.

They could pull Phillips out of the lead off spot and hit him cleanup, that would be ok, but that weakens the top of the order. Can't put Stubbs at lead off again.

Captain Hook
04-11-2012, 12:35 AM
Just saw a tweet from Fay saying that if you exclude Cozart and Bruce the rest of the team has a .144 batting average.:thumbdown:

Will M
04-11-2012, 01:52 AM
the Reds had the entire offseason to add a lefty OF bat. instead they signed Ludwick. then they traded their only bench lefty bat (Francisco). i suspect they will have problems all year against RH pitching which if I recall was a problem last year.

reds44
04-11-2012, 02:03 AM
Just saw a tweet from Fay saying that if you exclude Cozart and Bruce the rest of the team has a .144 batting average.:thumbdown:
For some reason I don't think this will keep up lol

reds44
04-11-2012, 02:06 AM
the Reds had the entire offseason to add a lefty OF bat. instead they signed Ludwick. then they traded their only bench lefty bat (Francisco). i suspect they will have problems all year against RH pitching which if I recall was a problem last year.
Reds OPS'd .717 vs RHP and .794 vs LHP last year.

LincolnparkRed
04-11-2012, 11:15 AM
Willie Harris sure doesn't look like the answer to any question that matters.

There is no reason a MLB team should bat him leadoff since at least 2007

CesarGeronimo
04-11-2012, 11:17 AM
the Reds had the entire offseason to add a lefty OF bat. instead they signed Ludwick. then they traded their only bench lefty bat (Francisco). i suspect they will have problems all year against RH pitching which if I recall was a problem last year.

What fun would there be in getting a lefty hitter to play LF? Too mundane and predictable. With having the two righties, we will be delighted and amazed thoughout the season at the powers of the Great Dustini as he conjures the futures of Ludwick, Heisey and the opposing starting pitcher to determine each game's starting left fielder. It's an ideal situation really! I picture Dustini in a trance, wearing his swami maharaja hat, chanting and perhaps smoking hashish, as he prepares to fill out his lineup card.

lollipopcurve
04-11-2012, 11:22 AM
What fun would there be in getting a lefty hitter to play LF? Too mundane and predictable. With having the two righties, we will be delighted and amazed thoughout the season at the powers of the Great Dustini as he conjures the futures of Ludwick, Heisey and the opposing starting pitcher to determine each game's starting left fielder. It's an ideal situation really! I picture Dustini in a trance, wearing his swami maharaja hat, chanting and perhaps smoking hashish, as he prepares to fill out his lineup card.

:laugh:

I will say, though, that I think Baker has some good insight on Reds hitters.

MikeS21
04-11-2012, 11:33 AM
Wouldn't Alonso look good out in LF about now? :p

powersackers
04-11-2012, 11:59 AM
On a call with a vendor today and he asked me about the Reds hitting issues. I ended up quoting most of your thoughts from this thread. We seem to have an issue vs RHP and only a trade for a LH 3b or LH LF with power that can bat cleanup would fix the issue.

Not looking forward to watching Bruce and Votto get pitched around otherwise.

Ron Madden
04-11-2012, 12:07 PM
I think it's just a team wide slump. I really belive this club will hit.

klw
04-11-2012, 12:12 PM
Wouldn't Alonso look good out in LF about now? :p

Well he is at .176 at the moment so he would fit in at least.;)
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=475174#gameType='R'&sectionType=career&statType=1&season=2012&level='ALL'

RedlegJake
04-11-2012, 12:36 PM
These guys will hit but its frustrating. Right now they are in a team wide slump - this team isn't "clicking" at all. Even the wins don't feel 'right' except for opening day and that was Cueto. If anything I'm glad to see this slump happen real early because these guys aren't babies anymore - a slowish start isn't going to shatter them. Look - Votto is not hitting. Anyone wanna bet that ends pretty quick? And Rolen is far from washed up - think he's gonna continue to struggle this badly? BP? Even Bruce isn't really hitting anything except the long ball - this is NOT because they have too few lefties. This is a team slump. It happens. It'll end soon. If this offense looks this anemic by mid May I'll join everyone in a miseryfest - til then this is just another bad spot that came right off the bat - its not like they were hitting all cylinders in ST. The team looked off kilter all spring to me.

RedsManRick
04-11-2012, 01:35 PM
Slumps happen. Luckily, they aren't terribly predictive. Whatever you thought about this offense before the season is still our best assessment of what's likely to happen moving forward.

Kc61
04-11-2012, 01:40 PM
This is a team slump. It happens. It'll end soon. If this offense looks this anemic by mid May I'll join everyone in a miseryfest - til then this is just another bad spot that came right off the bat - its not like they were hitting all cylinders in ST. The team looked off kilter all spring to me.

The question is whether the Reds offense is good enough, NOT whether the team is slumping now. Obviously an early April slump is not very important.

Another way to look at it is to isolate three key positions: 3B, CF, LF.

Right now there are five guys manning these positions, Rolen, Cairo, Heisey, Ludwick, Stubbs. All are right handed. A couple of them are in their later baseball years. Several of them are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Heisey hasn't been a regular before.

Even if one forgets about the "handedness" of these guys, the question is whether the Reds can get enough offense out of them to win the division. I'm not sure they can.

Even catcher and SS are not sure things, but I don't see them as critical offensively, they are defensive positions, I am confident Hanigan will do ok, and whatever we get from Cozart will be a plus over 2011.

But the Reds need some offense from CF, LF, 3B - if not all these positions, then two of them.

M2
04-11-2012, 02:28 PM
I really wonder what the Yankees would ask for in return for Brett Gardner. I love that guy's game, and he could solve more than one problem for the offense.

Gardner's one of my favorite ballplayers to watch. He's crazy fast.

But I'd settle for Denard Span. And Walt might want to find Johnny Damon's phone number (though I suppose he could just call Scott Boras).

RedlegJake
04-11-2012, 03:21 PM
KC - I'm not worried about third. Frankly, I really think Frazier would outhit Rolen given a season long shot and Rolen won't be a problem offensively. CF and LF are more of a problem going forward - I'd love to see a LH bat out there, too but not unless it profiled as a better bat than any of those three guys. I don't want a lefty just to have a lefty. I am not sold that this is a season crippling problem (the handedness) as much as I am worried about Stubbs just plain proving he really isn't as bad a hitter as he looked last season, and Ludwick proving that his numbers were really off due to Petco's effect and not just lack of talent. To me, Heisey isn't a problem - the two guys he is splitting time with may be.

RedlegJake
04-11-2012, 03:24 PM
Gardner's one of my favorite ballplayers to watch. He's crazy fast.

But I'd settle for Denard Span. And Walt might want to find Johnny Damon's phone number (though I suppose he could just call Scott Boras).

I'd love to see Damon in a Reds uniform. He could give the type of spark that Rolen provided in 2010, provide the LH bat many want, still plays decent defense especially for left, and I'd love to see him talking to Stubbs and splitting time with Heisey.

powersackers
04-11-2012, 03:38 PM
I'd love to see Damon in a Reds uniform. He could give the type of spark that Rolen provided in 2010, provide the LH bat many want, still plays decent defense especially for left, and I'd love to see him talking to Stubbs and splitting time with Heisey.

+1 I'd take him over Willie Harris. I'm not sure Dusty would though.

cbowen2112
04-11-2012, 04:11 PM
So begs the question of "why Harris over Frazier?!" heck, "why Harris over Valdez last night?!"

Frazier needs to get up here in a hurry and Harris DFAd. We do not need to keep going with this experiment.


The offense today was pretty good at getting hits, just not good at driving in runs. This game looked more like a 12-3 game than a 4-3 game. Either way, good to see our guys get in the groove against a tough lefty. Onto another one in Gio tomorrow. Hopefully, we will see a different Gio then the one that tore through our lineup when we played in Oakland last year.

Tom Servo
04-11-2012, 04:15 PM
My question is how long is Walt/Dusty going to let the Ludwick experiment last. Not saying the decision to drop him needs to be made this instant, but he doesn't exactly deserve a long leash given his performance over the last season and a half.

PuffyPig
04-11-2012, 04:16 PM
So begs the question of "why Harris over Frazier?!" heck, "why Harris over Valdez last night?!"



Harris has hit better than Valdez in his career.

I beleive you are letting Valdez's 3 hits today fool you into believing he's a good hitter.

It's 6 games into the season and many are freeking out over nothing.

HokieRed
04-11-2012, 04:17 PM
Some contribution from everywhere today except 3b. Still need a serious left-handed bat and a true 4 hitter. I can foresee the move of BP back to the 4 hole, Rolen to 6 or 7, Ludwick to 7 when he plays, Heisey to 6, Stubbs to 1.

reds44
04-11-2012, 04:39 PM
Valdez plays SS, Harris doesn't. Valdez isn't going anywhere. I just don't understand the Harris thing. If the Reds wanted a left handed bat off the bench, why did the trade Francisco?

Although if Cozart plays well, the Reds might be able to get away without carrying a true backup SS.

HokieRed
04-11-2012, 04:43 PM
Valdez plays SS, Harris doesn't. Valdez isn't going anywhere. I just don't understand the Harris thing. If the Reds wanted a left handed bat off the bench, why did the trade Francisco?

Although if Cozart plays well, the Reds might be able to get away without carrying a true backup SS.

Agree on Harris. I wouldn't carry him, period.

Kc61
04-11-2012, 05:14 PM
KC - I'm not worried about third. Frankly, I really think Frazier would outhit Rolen given a season long shot and Rolen won't be a problem offensively. CF and LF are more of a problem going forward - I'd love to see a LH bat out there, too but not unless it profiled as a better bat than any of those three guys. I don't want a lefty just to have a lefty. I am not sold that this is a season crippling problem (the handedness) as much as I am worried about Stubbs just plain proving he really isn't as bad a hitter as he looked last season, and Ludwick proving that his numbers were really off due to Petco's effect and not just lack of talent. To me, Heisey isn't a problem - the two guys he is splitting time with may be.

The comment "I don't want a lefty just to have a lefty" deserves comment. Nobody wants a bad hitter, righty or lefty. And nobody wants to replace a real good hitter because of handedness.

I couldn't care less if Votto, Phillips and Bruce are righty, lefty or whatever. They are real good hitters or better and their handedness means little to me.

But when you have regular outfielders, starters, like Stubbs, Heisey, and Ludwick, you are dealing with more average MLB hitters.

If you are going with relatively average MLB hitters, then handedness becomes important.

If I'm going to have three positions 3B, LF, and CF with average MLB hitters, then I want a mixture of lefties and righties because I want the percentages on my side. If Rolen, Cairo, Heisey, Stubbs, and Ludwick are to perform like average MLB bats, then I'd rather have a mixture of "average" lefties and righties.

That's my philosophy, always has been. The real good hitters can be anything, I don't care. The guys who are average MLB hitters -- I'd prefer a good lefty righty balance.

cbowen2112
04-11-2012, 08:29 PM
My question is how long is Walt/Dusty going to let the Ludwick experiment last. Not saying the decision to drop him needs to be made this instant, but he doesn't exactly deserve a long leash given his performance over the last season and a half.

Dennis Phipps is the new Chris Heisey!

cbowen2112
04-11-2012, 08:35 PM
Harris has hit better than Valdez in his career.

I beleive you are letting Valdez's 3 hits today fool you into believing he's a good hitter.

It's 6 games into the season and many are freeking out over nothing.

Harris has looked awful all Spring and thus far in the season.

He is a declining player. Valdez is more versatile and has a bit more speed. He has also been a part of a winning team (which matters to some more than others).

I am not freaking out just yet. I do believe that Harris should have been kept down in AAA for emergency situations and Frazier should be here, irregardless of the righty/lefty thing.

If we needed a true LH bat off the bench, Harris is not the answer.

Many say Damon would be a good fit for that role. I agree, but there might be some others on the market still or some that could be had via trade.

IMO, the Reds should be searching everywhere for switch hitters. It is a great commodity on a winning ball club. Who was our last true switch hitter? Wilkin Castillo?

cbowen2112
04-11-2012, 08:41 PM
Dennis Phipps is the new Chris Heisey!

And he is starting off nice and hot with a .080 AVG! LOL:laugh:

REDblooded
04-11-2012, 10:41 PM
Harris gives Dusty options/ideas he can't control... Can that hombre.

HokieRed
04-12-2012, 06:53 PM
Time yet to wonder about whether Stubbs is really a regular major leaguer?

mth123
04-12-2012, 06:55 PM
Time yet to wonder about whether Stubbs is really a regular major leaguer?

Past time.

Vottomatic
04-12-2012, 07:03 PM
I'm not in panic mode but the lack of LHed bats kills this team. Agree they should have gone after a LH bat for LF instead of Ludwick, to platoon with Heisey.

The Francisco experiment blew up in the Reds face.

Things hindering this team are....
1. Arroyo contract - pricetag forces them to keep him rotation
2. Bailey - alot of time and money invested in him, they want him to succeed
3. Chapman should be starting or given the chance.
4. Rolen is not a cleanup hitter anymore.
5. Stubbs is terrible. Been saying it for 2 years. Leadoff hitter? Ugh.
6. No true cleanup hitter behind Votto. Votto gets pitched around. (Beltran would have been nice)
7. Bullpen still a serious issue.

kbrake
04-12-2012, 07:09 PM
Cut Harris and Simon today. There is a quality clean up hitter on this team and his name is Jay Bruce. Go BP, Cozart, Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Rolen, Mes, Heisey/Stubbs. I think that is about the best you can do without bringing in talent from outside the organization.

WVRedsFan
04-12-2012, 08:30 PM
Cut Harris and Simon today. There is a quality clean up hitter on this team and his name is Jay Bruce. Go BP, Cozart, Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Rolen, Mes, Heisey/Stubbs. I think that is about the best you can do without bringing in talent from outside the organization.
My thoughts exactly. If you want to give Heisey some PT, use him in conjunction with Stubbs while giving Ludwick a chance. I have more faith in Ludwick driving in runs and getting hits regularly than Heisey or Stubs. Move Jay to cleanup and move Rolen down. And definitely cut Hitless Harris and Stumblin Simon yesterday. Dusty's toys must be removed.

Homer Bailey
04-12-2012, 08:54 PM
Time yet to wonder about whether Stubbs is really a regular major leaguer?

I guess we're ok just getting rid of guys that average 3.3 WAR per season? They grow on trees?

nate
04-12-2012, 08:57 PM
I guess we're ok just getting rid of guys that average 3.3 WAR per season? They grow on trees?

Of course not.

They're more a root vegetable.

:cool:

Kc61
04-12-2012, 09:33 PM
I guess we're ok just getting rid of guys that average 3.3 WAR per season? They grow on trees?

Like, let's take now. Stubbs is 4 for 25 with 8 strikeouts.

Why does he have to play every single game? Last year, when he slumped, Drew got worse with the overuse. He had the most at bats on the team, by far, a guy who makes so little contact that he struck out over 200 times.

Play Stubbs against lefties and some righties. Stop using him like a star. Give Heisey a bunch of starts in CF too. He hits righties better.

Maybe the offense would improve.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-13-2012, 12:51 AM
There's absolutely nothing shocking about how Stubbs has underwhelmed to start this season. We saw it all last year. When pitchers really need to get him out, they do. The guy is completely overmatched. And this offense isn't good enough to keep Stubbs on just for his glove.

This early-season offensive ineptitude wouldn't be nearly so concerning if we didn't watch it all last year, save for a series here or there vs. the Cubs or Astros. I was going to include the Pirates but, well, we really can't hit their pitching either.

gilpdawg
04-13-2012, 06:58 AM
.

WildcatFan
04-13-2012, 09:27 AM
Drawing 12 walks in the first seven games seems like an offense question to me.

Vottomatic
04-13-2012, 09:30 AM
Like, let's take now. Stubbs is 4 for 25 with 8 strikeouts.

Why does he have to play every single game? Last year, when he slumped, Drew got worse with the overuse. He had the most at bats on the team, by far, a guy who makes so little contact that he struck out over 200 times.

Play Stubbs against lefties and some righties. Stop using him like a star. Give Heisey a bunch of starts in CF too. He hits righties better.

Maybe the offense would improve.

This ain't the Reds year. Unless they tweak the team.

They really need to get rid of Dusty. It's funny to me that Reds ownership/management thinks this team is positioned to win, but they keep underachieving........and they can't figure out that Dusty is holding the team back.

RedsManRick
04-13-2012, 10:01 AM
Like, let's take now. Stubbs is 4 for 25 with 8 strikeouts.

Why does he have to play every single game? Last year, when he slumped, Drew got worse with the overuse. He had the most at bats on the team, by far, a guy who makes so little contact that he struck out over 200 times.

Play Stubbs against lefties and some righties. Stop using him like a star. Give Heisey a bunch of starts in CF too. He hits righties better.

Maybe the offense would improve.

KC, I know we don't always see eye-to-eye, but I'm completely on board with you here.

While I don't think Heisey will continue to struggle against lefties as much as he has so far, a platoon between these two guys makes all kinds of sense. There's really little argument for using Stubbs over Heisey vR.



vR PA BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG
Stubbs 1114 8.5 29.6 .135 .329 .314 .377
Heisey 383 6.8 23.8 .244 .322 .343 .529

vL BB% K% ISO BABIP OBP SLG
Stubbs 373 10.7 26.8 .202 .346 .349 .474
Heisey 166 6.0 28.9 .120 .232 .238 .300

I would love to see Stubbs have a breakout season. Both BJ Upton and Chris Young have shown that this skill set can work -- both guys put up 4 WAR seasons the last two years. The difference, however, is that those guys walk a bit more and strikeout less (11.4/24.8 & 10.0/22.7). There's a line with this skill set between functional and not, and Stubbs is square on top of the line right now.

Homer Bailey
04-13-2012, 10:18 AM
This ain't the Reds year. Unless they tweak the team.

They really need to get rid of Dusty. It's funny to me that Reds ownership/management thinks this team is positioned to win, but they keep underachieving........and they can't figure out that Dusty is holding the team back.

Wow. After one week!?

CySeymour
04-13-2012, 10:29 AM
FWIW, last season Heisey had a lower obp then Stubbs and his strikeout rate was not all that much better. Throw in that Stubbs is a better center fielder and base runner, giving Heisey the job over Stubbs really doesn't improve the team.

bucksfan2
04-13-2012, 10:31 AM
This ain't the Reds year. Unless they tweak the team.

They really need to get rid of Dusty. It's funny to me that Reds ownership/management thinks this team is positioned to win, but they keep underachieving........and they can't figure out that Dusty is holding the team back.

No one besides Cozart and Bruce are hitting up to expectations. I don't understand how that is Dusty's fault. The offense is also missing Phillips over the past few games forcing a lineup without him at the top as well as moving Stubbs into the leadoff slot. Your going to go through stretches where your offense is bad and about 99% of the time it isn't because of the manager.

Kc61
04-13-2012, 10:37 AM
KC, I know we don't always see eye-to-eye, but I'm complete on board with you here.

.

Rick, the debate is enjoyable, and I think we (like most posters) see eye-to-eye on the overall picture and goals for the Reds.

As I've said before, the two players on the Reds who have concerned me the most are Arroyo and Stubbs. This is because they have struggled AND are used so constantly.

Arroyo had a poor 2011. But it wouldn't have been so damaging if he didn't pitch 199 innings. Maybe you can tolerate 5.07 pitching for some limited number of innings. But not for 32 games and 199 innings. The result is league leadership in homers and earned runs allowed and a huge negative impact on the team.

Stubbs is the same. Maybe you can tolerate a .686 OPS for some limited number of games. But when that player has 681 plate appearances and 604 official at bats, the result is 205 Ks and a seriously adverse effect on the offense.

In Stubbs' case, I believe that fewer at bats - and less exposure to some pitchers - would help his performance, maybe by a lot. But in any event, let's use his skills much of the time - but not all of the time. Let Heisey play against pitchers he is more likely to hit well.

I just don't understand the Reds' approach to Stubbs. It's like they are oblivious to his performance and are just being patient until he becomes Micky Mantle. The guy has hitting issues and the team needs to be more selective in its use of him.

RedsManRick
04-13-2012, 11:16 AM
[QUOTE=Kc61;2562440I just don't understand the Reds' approach to Stubbs. It's like they are oblivious to his performance and are just being patient until he becomes Micky Mantle. The guy has hitting issues and the team needs to be more selective in its use of him.[/QUOTE]

I think it's pretty straight forward. If Stubbs puts it together, he's an all-star caliber player. Again, just look at BJ Upton and Chris Young. 4 WAR players don't grow on trees. And if you just use him in a part-time role, you pretty much guarantee that never happens.

The challenge, as you point out, is that we're trying to win a division here. They've clearly made the decision with Chapman that winning today is the bigger priority than setting the guy up for long term success. So it's interesting that they haven't done the same in CF.

That said, it's not like we've had a great LF option to play if/when Heisey goes to CF. The questoin is not"is Heisey better than Stubbs vs. righties". It's, "is LF/Heisey better than Heisey/Stubbs"? And given our other LF options over the last year plus, that's not an obvious question. With Stubbs, you at least know you're getting good defense. If Ludwick starts hitting, I wouldn't be surprised to see Heisey get more PT in CF.

CrackerJack
04-13-2012, 11:58 AM
I think it's pretty straight forward. If Stubbs puts it together, he's an all-star caliber player. Again, just look at BJ Upton and Chris Young. 4 WAR players don't grow on trees. And if you just use him in a part-time role, you pretty much guarantee that never happens.

The challenge, as you point out, is that we're trying to win a division here. They've clearly made the decision with Chapman that winning today is the bigger priority than setting the guy up for long term success. So it's interesting that they haven't done the same in CF.

That said, it's not like we've had a great LF option to play if/when Heisey goes to CF. The questoin is not"is Heisey better than Stubbs vs. righties". It's, "is LF/Heisey better than Heisey/Stubbs"? And given our other LF options over the last year plus, that's not an obvious question. With Stubbs, you at least know you're getting good defense. If Ludwick starts hitting, I wouldn't be surprised to see Heisey get more PT in CF.

Walt seems to be all about pitching and defense, at the cost of offense, here any ways.

It hasn't worked, you have to score more often than this team does and has going back to the last two seasons when they were dominated by the Phillies in the post season, including a humiliating no-hitter.

Yet he's doing a whole lot of nothing to improve the line-up.

Kc61
04-13-2012, 12:06 PM
IThat said, it's not like we've had a great LF option to play if/when Heisey goes to CF. The questoin is not"is Heisey better than Stubbs vs. righties". It's, "is LF/Heisey better than Heisey/Stubbs"? And given our other LF options over the last year plus, that's not an obvious question. With Stubbs, you at least know you're getting good defense. If Ludwick starts hitting, I wouldn't be surprised to see Heisey get more PT in CF.



As I recall, Ludwick has hit righties pretty well throughout his career. But not last year. Last year at SD he didn't hit righties well. Just based on recollection, haven't checked the numbers again.

A lot of this agonizing could be avoided if Walt had a single guy who can play LF and hit left handed reasonably well.

traderumor
04-13-2012, 12:49 PM
Walt seems to be all about pitching and defense, at the cost of offense, here any ways.

It hasn't worked, you have to score more often than this team does and has going back to the last two seasons when they were dominated by the Phillies in the post season, including a humiliating no-hitter.

Yet he's doing a whole lot of nothing to improve the line-up.

Offense:
2011 RPG 4.54, 2nd in NL to St. Louis (lg. avg. 4.13)
2010 RPG 4.88, 1st in NL (lg. avg. 4.33)

Pitching/Defense:
2011 RPG 4.44 (lg. avg. 4.16)
2010 RPG 4.23 (lg. avg. 4.35)

Playoff year, above average offense & pitching/defense.

Mediocre season, above average offense & below average pitching/defense (mostly pitching issue, D was consistent)

So, Walt focused on the pitching this offseason and kept his league leading offense and defense in tact. Seems like a reasonable strategy to me. I'm gonna wait longer than 7 games to make an evaluation of that strategy.

RichRed
04-13-2012, 03:19 PM
I'd love to see Damon in a Reds uniform. He could give the type of spark that Rolen provided in 2010, provide the LH bat many want, still plays decent defense especially for left, and I'd love to see him talking to Stubbs and splitting time with Heisey.

Damon is apparently signing with the Indians.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7805441/johnny-damon-says-deal-cleveland-indians

Right state, wrong team!

fearofpopvol1
04-13-2012, 09:35 PM
Okay, I've been pretty patient, but I am starting to wonder where the bats are! I know it's not 80 degrees outside anywhere yet and that probably doesn't help, but seriously!

Also, I don't care about the lineup as much as some do and I don't blame the losses here, but should Scott Rolen really be hitting 4th in the lineup? I understand Rolen was injured for half the season, but he hit 5 home runs last year. His OPS for the season was .676. I'm guessing, though I don't know for sure, that that's probably the worst OPS by the #4 hitter in all of baseball. Love his defense, but I don't see any sense in hitting him any higher than 7.

Caveat Emperor
04-13-2012, 11:32 PM
Stubbs and Heisey are two sides of the same mediocre coin. The Reds would be wise to address CF in the upcoming offseason.

traderumor
04-13-2012, 11:36 PM
Okay, I've been pretty patient, but I am starting to wonder where the bats are! I know it's not 80 degrees outside anywhere yet and that probably doesn't help, but seriously!

Also, I don't care about the lineup as much as some do and I don't blame the losses here, but should Scott Rolen really be hitting 4th in the lineup? I understand Rolen was injured for half the season, but he hit 5 home runs last year. His OPS for the season was .676. I'm guessing, though I don't know for sure, that that's probably the worst OPS by the #4 hitter in all of baseball. Love his defense, but I don't see any sense in hitting him any higher than 7.You can't make that statement after 8 games ;)

M2
04-13-2012, 11:43 PM
First thing I'd like to see the Reds do is make a public proclamation that Drew Stubbs will never again hit near the top of the lineup vs. a right-handed starter.

Caveat Emperor
04-13-2012, 11:43 PM
Take away two 9th inning comebacks and the Reds would be 1-7 right now.

Just saying...

reds1869
04-13-2012, 11:49 PM
Take away two 9th inning comebacks and the Reds would be 1-7 right now.

Just saying...

Luckily for us the rest of the division isn't setting the world on fire, either. The Reds power outage is definitely cause for concern but I can't shake the feeling it will turn around. I just hope the offense's return isn't offset by the pitching staff going in the other direction.

WVPacman
04-13-2012, 11:49 PM
Okay, I've been pretty patient, but I am starting to wonder where the bats are! I know it's not 80 degrees outside anywhere yet and that probably doesn't help, but seriously!

Also, I don't care about the lineup as much as some do and I don't blame the losses here, but should Scott Rolen really be hitting 4th in the lineup? I understand Rolen was injured for half the season, but he hit 5 home runs last year. His OPS for the season was .676. I'm guessing, though I don't know for sure, that that's probably the worst OPS by the #4 hitter in all of baseball. Love his defense, but I don't see any sense in hitting him any higher than 7.

My patience went out the door tonight.Seriously this team as of right now its very hard spending three hours of your time to watch.All the players act like they don't care and are just going threw the motions just b/c they have to to get their check.We have preached all offseason that this team needed more offense but did they try and go out and get any good hitters no.

All they worried about was pitching!! Well people pitching is only one thing you need to win.You also need solid defense and hitting and thats something this team does not have expecially hitting.Rolen is done! I said that last year but yet he still starts.Stubbs absolutely sucks and is not going to get any better.Ludwick is to old and a waste of money and spot on team yet we are stuck with him for the year.

Right now at this point it looks like a very very long season guys and at this point I honestly don't see it getting better BUT I hope im wrong.This must be what a Pirate fan feels like all the time.I ask my dad b/c he is a pirate fan and he says he feels this way every day lol. This sucks!!:thumbdown:

KronoRed
04-13-2012, 11:50 PM
Votto is going to set a new team walks record with that empty hole behind him.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-14-2012, 12:28 AM
Luckily for us the rest of the division isn't setting the world on fire, either. The Reds power outage is definitely cause for concern but I can't shake the feeling it will turn around. I just hope the offense's return isn't offset by the pitching staff going in the other direction.

Ahh, the saving grace for Reds fans. ... The rest of the division sucks too, so we're OK. :thumbdown:

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2012, 01:18 AM
Dusty is managing like he wants to be fired. Case in point, stop hitting Rolen fourth, hit Bruce there and give us a chance. How a big league manager is this clueless after this many years I simply will never understand it.Scott Rolen is done, finished, zippo.

Caveat Emperor
04-14-2012, 01:29 AM
1. Cozart
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Phillips
5. Rolen
6. Ludwick
7. Mesoraco
8. Stubbs
9. Pitcher

This lineup accomplishes the following goals:

1. Gets Bruce more fastballs, because Bad Jay Bruce™ is showing signs of emerging and Bad Jay Bruce™ cannot hit breaking balls.

2. Offers Votto the protection of the most consistent bat in the lineup.

3. Keeps Cozart at the top of the lineup.

4. Buries Drew Stubbs.

757690
04-14-2012, 01:29 AM
Dusty is managing like he wants to be fired. Case in point, stop hitting Rolen fourth, hit Bruce there and give us a chance. How a big league manager is this clueless after this many years I simply will never understand it.Scott Rolen is done, finished, zippo.

Could you also make a similar post about Drew Srubbs? Don't take offense,, but it seems like every time you give up on a player, he turns his career around ;)

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 01:34 AM
Our offense sucks so far. They will get better. Sucks for now. Better and likely soon. As much as we think some of these guys suck, they don't suck this bad.

fearofpopvol1
04-14-2012, 01:44 AM
1. Cozart
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Phillips
5. Rolen
6. Ludwick
7. Mesoraco
8. Stubbs
9. Pitcher

This lineup accomplishes the following goals:

1. Gets Bruce more fastballs, because Bad Jay Bruce™ is showing signs of emerging and Bad Jay Bruce™ cannot hit breaking balls.

2. Offers Votto the protection of the most consistent bat in the lineup.

3. Keeps Cozart at the top of the lineup.

4. Buries Drew Stubbs.

I much prefer Phillips hitting first or second. I don't like him in the 4th spot. I don't think it suits him well. I'd rather put Bruce there.

Wheelhouse
04-14-2012, 01:59 AM
Ahh, the saving grace for Reds fans. ... The rest of the division sucks too, so we're OK. :thumbdown:

Word. Even if the "everyone is bad" view leads to a Division title, you're still King of Turd Mountain, and you're facing a demoralizing three-and-out playoff performance. Plus, even if the team "wins" the Division, you've watched a year of mediocre baseball...sucker!

Playadlc
04-14-2012, 02:11 AM
1. Cozart
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Phillips
5. Rolen
6. Ludwick
7. Mesoraco
8. Stubbs
9. Pitcher

This lineup accomplishes the following goals:

1. Gets Bruce more fastballs, because Bad Jay Bruce™ is showing signs of emerging and Bad Jay Bruce™ cannot hit breaking balls.

2. Offers Votto the protection of the most consistent bat in the lineup.

3. Keeps Cozart at the top of the lineup.

4. Buries Drew Stubbs.

I like this. Only change I would make is Mes 5th and Rolen 7th.

reds44
04-14-2012, 03:05 AM
1. Cozart
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Phillips
5. Rolen
6. Ludwick
7. Mesoraco
8. Stubbs
9. Pitcher

This lineup accomplishes the following goals:

1. Gets Bruce more fastballs, because Bad Jay Bruce™ is showing signs of emerging and Bad Jay Bruce™ cannot hit breaking balls.

2. Offers Votto the protection of the most consistent bat in the lineup.

3. Keeps Cozart at the top of the lineup.

4. Buries Drew Stubbs.
I don't see Dusty ever hitting Bruce 2nd. Just not going to happen.

Here's what I'm hopeful for:

1. Heisey LF
Ludwick looks a lot like Rolen right now, old and bad. Don't really feel like playing the Heisey starter debate, but at least here you maximize his fastballs.
2. Cozart
3. Votto
4. Phillip
5. Bruce
6. Rolen
7. Mes
8. Stubbs

REDblooded
04-14-2012, 05:53 AM
Our offense sucks so far. They will get better. Sucks for now. Better and likely soon. As much as we think some of these guys suck, they don't suck this bad.

Been saying it for 3 seasons... Pitching isn't the problem. Outside of Votto, the line-up is filled with streaky bats... get 2-3 going at a time, and it's lights out... Get Bruce, Phillips, Stubbs in a slump together? Forget it...

Vottomatic
04-14-2012, 06:22 AM
Put a fork in them, they're done. We suck. We have an idiot manager, streaky offense, and terrible bullpen.

Arroyo with probably his best outing in 2 years and Dusty takes him out of the game. I've seen enough.

mth123
04-14-2012, 06:47 AM
Its just a slump. I share the concerns about Rolen and Stubbs that many others on this board have, but even those guys aren't going to hit below .150 all year. Same goes for Hanigan and Ludwick. Heisey will hit better. Phillips will hit better than he had when he comes back. The offense has some holes, but its not this awful. Slumps are always magnified early in the season.

I'm sticking with my 92 win prediction.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 08:01 AM
Its just a slump. I share the concerns about Rolen and Stubbs that many others on this board have, but even those guys aren't going to hit below .150 all year. Same goes for Hanigan and Ludwick. Heisey will hit better. Phillips will hit better than he had when he comes back. The offense has some holes, but its not this awful. Slumps are always magnified early in the season.

I'm sticking with my 92 win prediction.

I disagree with 92 wins but I agree that the offense isn't this bad and will do better as the year goes on. But I don't think it is a good offense. I didn't think so last year either. They scored runs in streaks last year and dominated LHP, but the offense was prone to long slumps last year and did not hit RHP.

The Cardinal series was an eye opener. Even without Pujols the team has lefty hitting, righty hitting, switch hitting, patient hitters, contact hitters. The Reds are three guys - Votto, Bruce, Phillips - and a bunch of impatient righty hitters who are overmatched by mediocre right handed pitching. Yes, and a couple of promising rookies.

Nothing is more boring than a middling ballclub that doesn't score runs. And nothing destroys a pitching staff more than a constant stream of good performances with no offensive support. Eventually, the pitchers feel they have to be perfect and this pressure hurts their performances.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 08:05 AM
double post, ignore.

traderumor
04-14-2012, 08:09 AM
Ahh, the saving grace for Reds fans. ... The rest of the division sucks too, so we're OK. :thumbdown:The truth there is that a slow start coinciding with a division foe's jackrabbit start can have you behind the 8 ball all season. See "Wire to Wire," circa 1990. It is fortunate to not be losing a large chunk of ground during a slump, don't ya think?

traderumor
04-14-2012, 08:12 AM
I disagree with 92 wins but I agree that the offense isn't this bad and will do better as the year goes on. But I don't think it is a good offense. I didn't think so last year either. They scored runs in streaks last year and dominated LHP, but the offense was prone to long slumps last year and did not hit RHP.

The Cardinal series was an eye opener. Even without Pujols the team has lefty hitting, righty hitting, switch hitting, patient hitters, contact hitters. The Reds are three guys - Votto, Bruce, Phillips - and a bunch of impatient righty hitters who are overmatched by mediocre right handed pitching. Yes, and a couple of promising rookies.

Nothing is more boring than a middling ballclub that doesn't score runs. And nothing destroys a pitching staff than a constant stream of good performances with no offensive support. Eventually, the pitchers feel they have to be perfect and this pressure hurts their performances.But the only NL team last year that scored more runs was the Cardinals. The run distribution theory has been debunked as myth. This has been a good offense the last two years, one of the best in the league. Maybe every member of the offense will have a bad year, it is statistically possible. I'm guessing probably not, though.

If the Cardinals had their inevitable team wide hitting slump out of the gate, there would be folks right now jumping to the conclusion that Albert meant so much to the offense that they're done. Since they started out hot, the conclusion is that they really haven't missed him at all.

The beginning of the MLB season is always interesting to see reactions to the first few weeks of games. There are always teams that play good out of the gate and are crowned this year's surprise team, just like already the Nats will be getting some attention for starting 6-2. Last year I remember the Red Sox started out slow, had a 1-9 start or something crazy like that, and their demise is certain. Stuff like this happens in the midst of the season, it is just a streak and hardly anyone knows about it. If the Astros went 8-2 at the point where they have a 20-40 record, who cares? But if they hold their own out of the gate, they're a surprise team.

mth123
04-14-2012, 08:34 AM
I disagree with 92 wins but I agree that the offense isn't this bad and will do better as the year goes on. But I don't think it is a good offense. I didn't think so last year either. They scored runs in streaks last year and dominated LHP, but the offense was prone to long slumps last year and did not hit RHP.

The Cardinal series was an eye opener. Even without Pujols the team has lefty hitting, righty hitting, switch hitting, patient hitters, contact hitters. The Reds are three guys - Votto, Bruce, Phillips - and a bunch of impatient righty hitters who are overmatched by mediocre right handed pitching. Yes, and a couple of promising rookies.

Nothing is more boring than a middling ballclub that doesn't score runs. And nothing destroys a pitching staff more than a constant stream of good performances with no offensive support. Eventually, the pitchers feel they have to be perfect and this pressure hurts their performances.

Tust me, I've been pointing out that this offense is quite pedestrian against RHP since the 2009 season. I agree completely, but they usually kill lefty pitchng and Gonzalez made them look silly. This offense lacks a clean-up bat, is mediocre against RHP and the numbers are worse than they appear because they benefit greatly from GABP. They still should score enough runs most of the time to win a lot of games. I really think that Rolen is a bottom of the order bat these days and that Stubbs is a spot player who shoots himself in the foot by being passive on both offense and defense. Those two spots, more than any others are my biggest cause for concern. This team needs to find a 3rd middle fo the order bat (its not Rolen) and keep Phillips healthy and it will be OK. Its not dominant, but its enough if some one from the Mesoraco, Ludwick, Heisey group can provide some consistent production. They won't keep pitchers from pitching around Votto, but they need somebody who can make them pay fairly often when they do.

I really think the Reds were too hasty in dealing Francisco. He was a lefty with pop who played a position where the offense is poor against RHP. He may have had flaws, but he brought things to the table that no one else on the roster does. I hope the Reds can find somebody who can add production against RHP, but the team can still win as is IMO.

mth123
04-14-2012, 08:35 AM
Double post

Kc61
04-14-2012, 08:44 AM
But the only NL team last year that scored more runs was the Cardinals. The run distribution theory has been debunked as myth. This has been a good offense the last two years, one of the best in the league. Maybe every member of the offense will have a bad year, it is statistically possible. I'm guessing probably not, though.

.

I was waiting for this. The Reds scored a lot of runs early last year, primarily doing damage against lefties. I saw the run distribution stats last year and I do not think it was a "myth". That's a conclusion some people drew, I thought they showed the Reds to be very uneven in their scoring patterns.

Last year, early, the team was hot with players like Ramon Hernandez off to hot starts. But over the season the team was prone to long, team wide hitting slumps.

I do not think this is a good offense. I think it is no accident that middle level right handed starters like Rickey Nolasco and Jake Westbrook shut them down.

This team will see very few left handed starters this year. Votto will draw a ton of walks because the cleanup spot is not potent. The guy in centerfield cannot make contact and LF is a bizarre platoon of two modest righty hitters who do not complement each other at all.

The Reds offense isn't as bad as right now, but I think the Cards are a much better constructed offense and if they get good pitching they will win the division by a mile. Reds need either very good luck or a few changes if the offense is to be any good.

RedlegJake
04-14-2012, 08:57 AM
I disagree about Francisco completely - I don't think he'll ever hit ML pitching. He's lazy and doesn't have the "heart" - that's just my opinion but when a guy is fighting for a spot on a roster to start his career out and shows up fat and out of shape that tells me a ton. Added to the glaring holes he has in his game, I have NO confidence in him and I'm surprised they got Hoover for him. I'd rather have Frazier at third and let him work himself into the lineup but Rolen isn't going anywhere. Even if he gets hurt it won't be Frazier that gets the chance. Cairo. Yuck. This is a slump and they'll come around but I am beginning to agree there is a problem but I disagree its entirely handedness! Its the general philosophy and makeup of their hitters. No patience- no selectivity, no intelligence from too many of the Reds hitters. They are batting like they're chomping at the bit to swing, getting into the hole too much, they're driving me crazy! I wish we could resurrect Ted K as the hitting coach! I'm not worried about Votto's approach but Stubbs has gone from looking pretty good in game one - like he had seen the light to flipping right back to trying to be Mickey Mantle all the time. Baker's Heisey/Ludwick flip-flopping is ridiculous, he should be platooning Stubbs and Heisey if anything instead of trying to crystal ball which of 2 righties is going to hit better in a given game. This is frustrating to watch but its early. Watching them waste what might be Arroyo's best start of the whole summer by throwing the ball game away - literally....yeesh!

mth123
04-14-2012, 09:26 AM
I disagree about Francisco completely - I don't think he'll ever hit ML pitching. He's lazy and doesn't have the "heart" - that's just my opinion but when a guy is fighting for a spot on a roster to start his career out and shows up fat and out of shape that tells me a ton. Added to the glaring holes he has in his game, I have NO confidence in him and I'm surprised they got Hoover for him. I'd rather have Frazier at third and let him work himself into the lineup but Rolen isn't going anywhere. Even if he gets hurt it won't be Frazier that gets the chance. Cairo. Yuck. This is a slump and they'll come around but I am beginning to agree there is a problem but I disagree its entirely handedness! Its the general philosophy and makeup of their hitters. No patience- no selectivity, no intelligence from too many of the Reds hitters. They are batting like they're chomping at the bit to swing, getting into the hole too much, they're driving me crazy! I wish we could resurrect Ted K as the hitting coach! I'm not worried about Votto's approach but Stubbs has gone from looking pretty good in game one - like he had seen the light to flipping right back to trying to be Mickey Mantle all the time. Baker's Heisey/Ludwick flip-flopping is ridiculous, he should be platooning Stubbs and Heisey if anything instead of trying to crystal ball which of 2 righties is going to hit better in a given game. This is frustrating to watch but its early. Watching them waste what might be Arroyo's best start of the whole summer by throwing the ball game away - literally....yeesh!

Francisco has a lot of warts, but when Rolen is struggling to OPS .675 against RHP, going to Cairo or Frazier won't be an upgrade against those same RHP. Francisco's career splits agianst RHP .287/.335/.473/.809. It's only 161 PAs, but he's the only hope they had. And, IMO, he's a better defender than either Frazier or Cairo as well.

My truck has some mechanical issues and it sputters once in a while and idles rough, but when I need to haul something from point A to point B, its still better than than my bicycle. When it comes to playing 3B against RHP, Francisco may be a sputtering truck, but those other guys are bicycles.

traderumor
04-14-2012, 09:36 AM
I was waiting for this. The Reds scored a lot of runs early last year, primarily doing damage against lefties. I saw the run distribution stats last year and I do not think it was a "myth". That's a conclusion some people drew, I thought they showed the Reds to be very uneven in their scoring patterns.

Last year, early, the team was hot with players like Ramon Hernandez off to hot starts. But over the season the team was prone to long, team wide hitting slumps.

I do not think this is a good offense. I think it is no accident that middle level right handed starters like Rickey Nolasco and Jake Westbrook shut them down.

This team will see very few left handed starters this year. Votto will draw a ton of walks because the cleanup spot is not potent. The guy in centerfield cannot make contact and LF is a bizarre platoon of two modest righty hitters who do not complement each other at all.

The Reds offense isn't as bad as right now, but I think the Cards are a much better constructed offense and if they get good pitching they will win the division by a mile. Reds need either very good luck or a few changes if the offense is to be any good.It will continue to be brought up since the facts are historical in nature and will not change. The Reds are two years running of being the best and second best offense in the league, over the course of an entire season, a very long, statistically significant number of events (324). The Reds won when they had slightly above league average pitching with this cast of characters, that is most likely the same formula for success this season. Using the first 8 games of the season to deride the offense is no different than claiming that the offense was second in RS because of a fast start. You can't have it both ways.

BTW, if the Reds were poor against righties, and I'm guessing that righty starters comprise about 75% of starts (maybe even more), there is no way "beating up on lefties" is going to yield top of the league production over 162 events. The numbers just won't work.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 09:51 AM
It will continue to be brought up since the facts are historical in nature and will not change. The Reds are two years running of being the best and second best offense in the league, over the course of an entire season, a very long, statistically significant number of events (324). The Reds won when they had slightly above league average pitching with this cast of characters, that is most likely the same formula for success this season. Using the first 8 games of the season to deride the offense is no different than claiming that the offense was second in RS because of a fast start. You can't have it both ways.

BTW, if the Reds were poor against righties, and I'm guessing that righty starters comprise about 75% of starts (maybe even more), there is no way "beating up on lefties" is going to yield top of the league production over 162 events. The numbers just won't work.

The historical fact is that the Reds had a .717 OPS against righties last year and over .790 against lefties. The team also had one of the league's highest strikeout totals last season, led by one player whose 205 strikeouts is just an astonishing number.

Total runs scored can be misleading and I believe it was misleading in the case of the Reds. The team can't hit mid-level righty starters and doesn't have ability to come up with good matchups in the late innings against right handed relievers. Yes, Javy Valentin would help about now.

This is not a winning offense. I don't care how many runs they scored last year. If this team is to win, it will have to be on the basis of pitching and defense, unless some changes are made.

mth123
04-14-2012, 09:58 AM
The Reds were 8th in the NL in OPS vs RHP in 2011. When you factor in the hitters paradise where they play, I'd say that is a poor showing.

traderumor
04-14-2012, 11:18 AM
The historical fact is that the Reds had a .717 OPS against righties last year and over .790 against lefties. The team also had one of the league's highest strikeout totals last season, led by one player whose 205 strikeouts is just an astonishing number.

Total runs scored can be misleading and I believe it was misleading in the case of the Reds. The team can't hit mid-level righty starters and doesn't have ability to come up with good matchups in the late innings against right handed relievers. Yes, Javy Valentin would help about now.

This is not a winning offense. I don't care how many runs they scored last year. If this team is to win, it will have to be on the basis of pitching and defense, unless some changes are made.Again, what you believe is not in line with the facts. This was debated last year, and repeating the myths doesn't make them suddenly accurate conclusions.

The Reds starting pitching was awful last year, the bullpen got wore out and faded, end of story. I am so glad that management recognized that fact and didn't go chasing after more runs, but addressed run prevention. I remember at one point it was the fault of one run games. Then we started winning those because it is something that tends to even out over the course of the season.

Yet here we are, folks still making statements that have been shown to be inaccurate, with the data to support it.

BTW, the context of the Reds performance against RHP is league average = .710, Reds are at .717. Yes, they are dramatically better against lefties vs. the rest of the league, but based on your facts, they are even above average against righties, when compared to the rest of the league.

HokieRed
04-14-2012, 12:06 PM
The Reds were 8th in the NL in OPS vs RHP in 2011. When you factor in the hitters paradise where they play, I'd say that is a poor showing.

Good point here about the ballpark, which really needs to be considered more seriously, IMHO, when we produce these stats about where the Reds stand offensively. With 81 games in GABP, a significant number of games in Wrigley, a very few games in the West stadiums, we ought to be very near the top every year no matter how mediocre the talent actually is.

WVRedsFan
04-14-2012, 12:24 PM
As much as I am convinced that we need a couple of bats, history shows that Votto, Rolen, Stubbs, and Hanigan will hit better. When/if they do, the Reds will be a fine ofensive ballclub. If they don't, no one will have to worry about Baker's job status. As I said in the game thread, If they are not in a terrible slump, we must be facing the finest pitchers in the league. We are not.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 01:30 PM
As much as I am convinced that we need a couple of bats, history shows that Votto, Rolen, Stubbs, and Hanigan will hit better. When/if they do, the Reds will be a fine ofensive ballclub. If they don't, no one will have to worry about Baker's job status. As I said in the game thread, If they are not in a terrible slump, we must be facing the finest pitchers in the league. We are not.


History is certainly on your side on Votto (who is fine), Rolen (hopefully he still has something in the tank) and Hanigan (who works the count and should hit ok).

The recent history on Stubbs, though, well has me concerned. Terrible 2011, now with an OPS of .311 and, more important, a continuation of the remarkably high K rate in early 2012.

Stubbs' K rate is alarming to me. I don't think you can be a good major league hitter fanning over 200 times a year. It's not the impact of the strikeouts, it's the failure to make contact. Nothing good can happen in an at bat when the hitter can't connect with the ball and ultimately fans. When you can't make contact in over 200 non-walk at bats, that really cuts down the opportunity to produce.

And Stubbs isn't Adam Dunn who generally (most seasons) compensates for his Ks with the long ball and walks. Stubbs didn't hit for much power last year, none this year so far, and he isn't exactly a walks machine. Stubbs' defense is fine, but I'm wondering whether major league pitching is just too tough for him.

I've been hung up on Arroyo and Stubbs because they are in there so constantly that a poor season really hurts. So far, Arroyo has been a pleasant surprise this year. He's a tough veteran and hopefully will keep it up. Bronson's attitude toward his poor season last year is wonderful, and he's coming back strong. Good for him.

Stubbs, though, wow, he's got me concerned. Maybe a AAA stay, if possible, would turn him around, give him some confidence. But right now, it's tough to watch.

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 02:39 PM
As much as I am convinced that we need a couple of bats, history shows that Votto, Rolen, Stubbs, and Hanigan will hit better. When/if they do, the Reds will be a fine ofensive ballclub. If they don't, no one will have to worry about Baker's job status. As I said in the game thread, If they are not in a terrible slump, we must be facing the finest pitchers in the league. We are not.

History is on the side of those guys, but I don't expect much from Rolen or Stubbs. If either guy has an OPS over .725 at the end of the year, I will probably be surprised.

I am sure that the offense will get better. It has to. But I have no faith that Scott Rolen or Drew Stubbs are going to be .330 OBP guys.

traderumor
04-14-2012, 03:44 PM
History is on the side of those guys, but I don't expect much from Rolen or Stubbs. If either guy has an OPS over .725 at the end of the year, I will probably be surprised.

I am sure that the offense will get better. It has to. But I have no faith that Scott Rolen or Drew Stubbs are going to be .330 OBP guys.
FWIW, Rolen was noteworthy in ST. Of course, its ST, but still, he was spraying the ball all over the place with power. Folks are piling on him awful early when the entire team is almost on the interstate.

mdccclxix
04-14-2012, 03:45 PM
I was going to post this in a new thread, but I guess I'll add it here.

A few weeks ago, before the extensions, I was wondering what life without Phillips would be like, so I checked out the rest of the league's team stats at 2b. Then I started checking all the other positions. Some interesting things came up, which I'll share.

Then, just now, as I started rechecking the stats, I realized the time frame I want to use, 2010-2011, which is the time frame that represents the Reds pretty much as they are now, shows that per WAR the Reds are #1, numero uno, at 73.4 WAR over the prior two years, ahead of the Yankees at 68.4.

That said, here's how that offensive power spreads out by position:

MLB Offensive WAR 2010-2011

C: 2nd (Ramon = 4.8 WAR)
1B: 1st (glad he's staying)
2B: 5th (glad he's staying)
SS: 20th (Cozart saves the day)
3B: 6th (Rolen or die)
RF: 6th (Bruce is that good, eh?)
CF: 16th (Stubbs' 6.6 WAR apparently isn't that special)
LF: 12th (Gomes 1 WAR in 836 AB's)
OF: 9th
P: 3rd (Willis, Wood, Owings = 1.5 WAR)

Originally, my point was to be that without Ramon, Phillips and Rolen, 2013 would be more difficult offensively than we know. Now that Phillips is on board, we can safely assume 1st, RF, and 2nd will be very good in the future. Maybe SS will too, we'll see. That still leaves, even in terms of this year's early results and 2012's forcast, some significant question marks.

Catcher: I want people to look at what Ramon did for this team offensively and realize that Mesoraco may not be a ready made replacement this year. Ramon was very steady. .290/.353 the last 2 years. On a rather poor team hitting for average, he really helped the offense break out of slumps. I don't know that Mesoraco can be as steady. He has a rather annoying tendency to pop up in the infield, for one. I love the way he crushes the ball, but he's pretty yippee out there, even behind the plate.

3rd Base: Rolen is looking like Griffey's last year, warning track power. Actually, pre-warning track power. The nice thing is that his defense will still provide enough value this year, as long as he's removed from the 4th spot in the lineup. Next year, I'd almost ask him to be a bench guy on a 1 year deal if he still looks ready to play, it's that bleak at 3b in terms of projectable WAR at 3b.

Center field: I'm a pro-Stubbs guy, but only in the 55/45 platoon with Heisey way. The fact is, his 6.6 WAR the last 2 years is middling. It's actually NOT that hard to find a guy, or group of guys, that can run and pick it in CF. And many of those guys can also approach .275 or so in average, certainly better than .249. For example, San Diego has gotten as much WAR out of CF with a mix of Cameron Maybin and Chris Denorfia the last 2 years. Drew Stubbs isn't that hot of stuff.

Left Field: 9 players in the last 2 years out there. Actually, that Nix/Gomes routine was as effective as we've seen over the last 2 years. One guy kills lefties, one guy kills righties. This spot isn't improving anytime soon, and the 6.6 WAR there isn't the worst at 12th, but it's 9 WAR from the top and 6.6 war from 0. Sadly, I think it could be worse this year.

In all, I think 1st, 2nd, and RF will remain in the top 5 range for WAR. And the addition of a solid SS will help if Cozart can be a top 12 WAR guy. But, with Ramon gone, Rolen looking bad, Stubbs looking bad, and the rest of the middling players on the roster not inspiring much, I'm thinking Latos will need to win 17+ games and pitch 200 innings to make this team close to a 90 win team.

IMO, Rolen and Ramon hitting for .270-.290 averages were buoys for this otherwise high strikeout, boom-or-bust lineup with Bruce, Heisey, Stubbs, Gomes, Nix, even Votto, being pretty high K guys.

My remedy would have definitely been to sign Beltran for 2-3 million more than they gave Madson. Or, to sign a guy like Damon because this team will hit for enough power, but needs a better batting average. But, who knows, maybe Cozart can hit .285 this year with like 35 doubles. That in itself could be enough to keep this team off the mat. Allow for Mesoraco to hit .270 and we'll be in business, offensively, despite what I anticipate to be poor performances in LF and CF.

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 03:56 PM
FWIW, Rolen was noteworthy in ST. Of course, its ST, but still, he was spraying the ball all over the place with power. Folks are piling on him awful early when the entire team is almost on the interstate.

While that is true, my disdain for anything that happens in spring training aside from lost velocity or injuries has been well documented on the site. Rolen hasn't OPS'd over .726 in any month since July 2010. I have next to no faith on him turning into anything resembling a decent hitter at this point in his life.

Crumbley
04-14-2012, 04:08 PM
While that is true, my disdain for anything that happens in spring training aside from lost velocity or injuries has been well documented on the site. Rolen hasn't OPS'd over .726 in any month since July 2010. I have next to no faith on him turning into anything resembling a decent hitter at this point in his life.
Woof, that's a brutal stat. I'm almost in awe of just how done he is, pitches he would have crushed a couple of years ago don't even sniff the warning track.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 04:29 PM
Woof, that's a brutal stat. I'm almost in awe of just how done he is, pitches he would have crushed a couple of years ago don't even sniff the warning track.

I think Rolen deserves some time. He missed a lot of time last year, particularly in the second half and it may take him awhile to get going offensively.

Is he done? Possibly. Is he still hurt? Could be. But I think it is equally possible that Rolen needs time against regular season pitching to get his timing down and to get going.

No choice but to wait it out, there's no alternative.

mdccclxix
04-14-2012, 04:58 PM
Wouldn't LHB's Danny Dorn or Rhinehart be better than Harris off the bench? You might even catch lightning in a bottle...

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 04:59 PM
I think Rolen deserves some time. He missed a lot of time last year, particularly in the second half and it may take him awhile to get going offensively.

Is he done? Possibly. Is he still hurt? Could be. But I think it is equally possible that Rolen needs time against regular season pitching to get his timing down and to get going.

No choice but to wait it out, there's no alternative.

Of course there is a choice..... play someone else.

The most likely reason for Rolen not being all that good is that he has a long injury history and he is older than dirt.

mth123
04-14-2012, 05:13 PM
Of course there is a choice..... play someone else.

The most likely reason for Rolen not being all that good is that he has a long injury history and he is older than dirt.

His shoulder is shot. I know he had surgery, but he had three surgeries before and it didn't fix the problem. Expecting this time to be different is foolish. Wait until he accumulates some wear and tear throughout the season.

fearofpopvol1
04-14-2012, 05:41 PM
I like Rolen in for his defense alone. The question is, why in the world is he hitting 4th in every game he plays?

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 05:53 PM
I like Rolen in for his defense alone. The question is, why in the world is he hitting 4th in every game he plays?

Yeah, I don't have a big issue with Rolen playing. Just bat him 7th on the days that he does play.

sonny
04-14-2012, 06:46 PM
Ugh. The offense this far has been mind-numbingly bad. I know it will turn around, but c'mon.

The Operator
04-14-2012, 06:52 PM
It's early still, but this is getting beyond frustrating. They're driven me to pulling my already receding hair out!

Kc61
04-14-2012, 06:52 PM
Ugh. The offense this far has been mind-numbingly bad. I know it will turn around, but c'mon.

Have to wonder how good this offense could be. Not very perhaps. Forget the current slump. Forget even the handedness problem.

They have three star players. Who else can hit on this team? Any ideas?

757690
04-14-2012, 06:52 PM
His shoulder is shot. I know he had surgery, but he had three surgeries before and it didn't fix the problem. Expecting this time to be different is foolish. Wait until he accumulates some wear and tear throughout the season.

Actually, the previous shoulder surgeries did help. He had bounce back years after each of them. But there might not have been much left to fix this time.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-14-2012, 06:54 PM
Where are all the stat-geek apologists from last year, who were blindly defending this "offense"? This offense is pathetic, and I don't care how many one-game outbursts they explode for and pad their stats.

To put is simply: This team CAN'T HIT!

757690
04-14-2012, 06:56 PM
Have to wonder how good this offense could be. Not very perhaps. Forget the current slump. Forget even the handedness problem.

They have three star players. Who else can hit on this team? Any ideas?

Offense is way down so far this season league wide. .681 OPS for the NL. Way too early to be drawing any conclusions.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 06:57 PM
Offense is way down so far this season league wide. .681 OPS for the NL. Way too early to be drawing any conclusions.

You just made me feel WORSE, not better.

Offense is way down league wide. And Reds are near the bottom of the heap. Great.

Roy Tucker
04-14-2012, 07:02 PM
This team worked the count pretty well last year. I think they were 6th in BB in the NL. But, man, this year, they are working the count like they are going to miss a bus. It's like a collective nervous breakdown.

Boys... take a pitch or 2... relax. Work the count, make the pitcher work for it. Don't be up there hacking away at the first pitch. Have confidence in your abilities.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-14-2012, 07:08 PM
Offense is way down so far this season league wide. .681 OPS for the NL. Way too early to be drawing any conclusions.

No it's not. We've seen this lack of production since at least august 2010. Disregard the date, this is a continuation of a chronic problem.

Brutus
04-14-2012, 07:16 PM
No it's not. We've seen this lack of production since at least august 2010. Disregard the date, this is a continuation of a chronic problem.

You sure about that?

Is Phillips a .544 OPS guy?
Is Heisey a .566 OPS guy?
Is Ludwick a .511 OPS guy?
Is Stubbs a .342 OPS guy?
Is Hanigan a .368 OPS guy?
Is Rolen a .358 OPS guy?

That's not a continuation of absolutely anything. That's an anomaly that is in no way, shape or form indicative of what this offense is or is capable of.

HokieRed
04-14-2012, 08:19 PM
Have to wonder how good this offense could be. Not very perhaps. Forget the current slump. Forget even the handedness problem.

They have three star players. Who else can hit on this team? Any ideas?

I've thought all along the only way this offense can be fairly good is for Ludwick to have a big bounceback year. To that end, I'd play Ludwick nearly every day and go every other day with Heisey and Stubbs in center. This for a start anyway.

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 08:21 PM
Where are all the stat-geek apologists from last year, who were blindly defending this "offense"? This offense is pathetic, and I don't care how many one-game outbursts they explode for and pad their stats.

To put is simply: This team CAN'T HIT!

I don't consider myself a 'stat-geek apologist', but this team is going to hit a whole lot better than they have unless you think half of the team isn't good enough to be in AA.

mth123
04-14-2012, 08:23 PM
I've thought all along the only way this offense can be fairly good is for Ludwick to have a big bounceback year. To that end, I'd play Ludwick nearly every day and go every other day with Heisey and Stubbs in center. This for a start anyway.

I'd do that as well with Ludwick hitting 5th, the catchers 6th, Rolen 7th and Heisey/Stubbs 8th.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 08:54 PM
I've thought all along the only way this offense can be fairly good is for Ludwick to have a big bounceback year. To that end, I'd play Ludwick nearly every day and go every other day with Heisey and Stubbs in center. This for a start anyway.

I essentially agree.

Many games against RHP should have an outfield of Ludwick, Heisey and Bruce.

Some games against RHP should have Heisey, Stubbs and Bruce.

All games against LHP should have Ludwick, Stubbs and Bruce.

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2012, 08:58 PM
This team stinks. No stats needed. This isn't the year. They have already put themselves in a hole that will be a pest to pull out of all year. I don't care how early it is. This team is bad and poorly constructed and poorly managed. It's going to be worse than last year because I thought they would be great this year and last year I expected the hangover.

_Sir_Charles_
04-14-2012, 09:08 PM
LOL. Sometimes this place just cracks me up. Not even 10 games into the season..."Oh woe is me!"

Kc61
04-14-2012, 09:24 PM
LOL. Sometimes this place just cracks me up. Not even 10 games into the season..."Oh woe is me!"

You're free to start a thread on how good things look.

757690
04-14-2012, 09:27 PM
Reds are currently 3 games out of first, and 1 game out of the final wild card spot. Time to throw in the towel. ;)

jojo
04-14-2012, 09:32 PM
Reds are currently 3 games out of first, and 1 game out of the final wild card spot. Time to throw in the towel. ;)

The hole is too deep. The hole is too wide. It's practically a canyon, this great divide.

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 09:33 PM
This team stinks. No stats needed. This isn't the year. They have already put themselves in a hole that will be a pest to pull out of all year. I don't care how early it is. This team is bad and poorly constructed and poorly managed. It's going to be worse than last year because I thought they would be great this year and last year I expected the hangover.

The Cardinals and Rays both came back from 10 games back with less than a month left last year. The Reds have 150 games to make up three. You are probably right, this will be a pest to pull out of.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 09:36 PM
The Cardinals and Rays both came back from 10 games back with less than a month left last year. The Reds have 150 games to make up three. You are probably right, this will be a pest to pull out of.

Question is whether the Reds can come back with 150 games to go.

Clarification requested -- with or without Stubbs?

Homer Bailey
04-14-2012, 09:42 PM
The old red guard is supposed to be the cream of the crop when it comes to knowledgeable baseball fans on this site. And there are several people giving up with 95% of the season remaining. If I can't find knowledgeable reactions on this site, I really don't know where to look.

Sent from my HTC Incredible using tapatalk

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 09:47 PM
"We aren't going to walk our way out of this, we have to hit our way out"

Your manager after the game today when the opposing pitcher threw a complete game in about 14 pitches.

Roy Tucker
04-14-2012, 10:01 PM
I think BCast needs to give the company credit card to Rolen and have him take the whole team out to a bar.

Kc61
04-14-2012, 10:06 PM
I think BCast needs to give the company credit card to Rolen and have him take the whole team out to a bar.

Probably correct.

Other than a personnel transplant, a few beers might be the best thing for this team.

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 10:31 PM
This team needs some slump busters.

WVPacman
04-14-2012, 11:25 PM
Just wondering how long does this slump have to keep going before the hitting coach gets the blame?:confused:

RedsManRick
04-14-2012, 11:52 PM
Something tells me the team BABIP of .236 won't continue.

dougdirt
04-14-2012, 11:56 PM
Something tells me the team BABIP of .236 won't continue.

It might if they listen to the manager and continue to try and hit their way out of a slump rather than walk their way out of it (IE, swing early and often rather than waiting for good pitches to swing at). BABIP only works if you are swinging at good pitches.
Of course now I am just piling on Dusty for his silly comments.

The Operator
04-15-2012, 12:16 AM
"We aren't going to walk our way out of this, we have to hit our way out"

Your manager after the game today when the opposing pitcher threw a complete game in about 14 pitches.I don't hate Dusty like some, but quotes like that are just maddening.

757690
04-15-2012, 12:53 AM
"We aren't going to walk our way out of this, we have to hit our way out"

Your manager after the game today when the opposing pitcher threw a complete game in about 14 pitches.

Jackson was pumping strikes, it really didn't matter what the hitters did.

And for the record, 17 of the Reds 27 outs were made after two strikes. 10 of the Nationals 24 outs were made after two strikes. It's not how many pitches you see or swing at, it's which ones you see or swing at.

CrackerJack
04-15-2012, 01:20 AM
I don't hate Dusty like some, but quotes like that are just maddening.

It's a problem I think.

kbrake
04-15-2012, 01:23 AM
The old red guard is supposed to be the cream of the crop when it comes to knowledgeable baseball fans on this site. And there are several people giving up with 95% of the season remaining. If I can't find knowledgeable reactions on this site, I really don't know where to look.

Sent from my HTC Incredible using tapatalk

You're going to find over reactions no matter where you go. I find it surprising how many here don't find this start even remotely troubling.

marcshoe
04-15-2012, 01:39 AM
My biggest concern about these last three losses are that they begin a long road trip. Things can get out of control quickly when you're playing poorly on the road. Particularly eith a trip to Stl on deck.

Tomorrow is very important.

Fwiw I 'm not too worried anout the offense itself. Itll come around.

The Operator
04-15-2012, 01:57 AM
Jackson was pumping strikes, it really didn't matter what the hitters did.

And for the record, 17 of the Reds 27 outs were made after two strikes. 10 of the Nationals 24 outs were made after two strikes. It's not how many pitches you see or swing at, it's which ones you see or swing at.You might be correct, but it's an awful approach while slumping to plan to go up to the plate and consciously try to hit instead of getting on base by any means necessary.

And while I don't have any stats handy, I'd say it's entirely possible that a lot of those 2-strike counts were due to Reds hitters going up there flailing wildly early in the count and either fouling off pitches or missing them altogether.

OBP never slumps. Adam Dunn went through some awful slumps hitting-wise during his time with The Reds, but he still had value because he was getting on base at a .350+ clip. Taking an approach that walks don't matter, especially when during a slump, is a fool's errand IMO.

gilpdawg
04-15-2012, 02:12 AM
The old red guard is supposed to be the cream of the crop when it comes to knowledgeable baseball fans on this site. And there are several people giving up with 95% of the season remaining. If I can't find knowledgeable reactions on this site, I really don't know where to look.

Sent from my HTC Incredible using tapatalk
Look at it this way...if the baseball season was football season, we'd be at halftime of the first game. Do you give up on your football team at the half of the first game? Only thing that worries me is the trip to St. Louis. Team could potentially be 3-9 by then, and it's still not over then, but I would be concerned by then.

gilpdawg
04-15-2012, 02:13 AM
Something tells me the team BABIP of .236 won't continue.
Just came in this thread to post this, seriously. Glad I saw your post first or I would have looked like a hanger-on. :D

And for all the hand-wringing about not being able to take walks, there are actually 11 teams with a worse walk rate right now, which is actually surprising to me.

traderumor
04-15-2012, 08:33 AM
It might if they listen to the manager and continue to try and hit their way out of a slump rather than walk their way out of it (IE, swing early and often rather than waiting for good pitches to swing at). BABIP only works if you are swinging at good pitches.
Of course now I am just piling on Dusty for his silly comments.


I don't hate Dusty like some, but quotes like that are just maddening.

Why? How do you get out of a slump? If it is a simple answer, why don't teams do it in the early stages of a slump? Isn't it just as silly to imply that "everyone knows that isn't how you get out of a slump"?

Well, then enlighten us. Enlighten the players. Enlighten Brook Jacoby. I'm sure they would all welcome the genius of our board members that have discovered the holy grail of baseball.

What? You don't have a solution? Or is that "you take pitches, everyone but Dusty knows that!" If you know how hitters get out of slumps, and how teams get out of team wide slumps, please share this information. It would be a historically significant discovery, likely worthy of "Branch Rickey and the farm system status" in the annals of the game.

kbrake
04-15-2012, 09:13 AM
Why? How do you get out of a slump? If it is a simple answer, why don't teams do it in the early stages of a slump? Isn't it just as silly to imply that "everyone knows that isn't how you get out of a slump"?

Well, then enlighten us. Enlighten the players. Enlighten Brook Jacoby. I'm sure they would all welcome the genius of our board members that have discovered the holy grail of baseball.

What? You don't have a solution? Or is that "you take pitches, everyone but Dusty knows that!" If you know how hitters get out of slumps, and how teams get out of team wide slumps, please share this information. It would be a historically significant discovery, likely worthy of "Branch Rickey and the farm system status" in the annals of the game.


I just thought they got with big girls?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 10:16 AM
You might be correct, but it's an awful approach while slumping to plan to go up to the plate and consciously try to hit instead of getting on base by any means necessary.

And while I don't have any stats handy, I'd say it's entirely possible that a lot of those 2-strike counts were due to Reds hitters going up there flailing wildly early in the count and either fouling off pitches or missing them altogether.

OBP never slumps. Adam Dunn went through some awful slumps hitting-wise during his time with The Reds, but he still had value because he was getting on base at a .350+ clip. Taking an approach that walks don't matter, especially when during a slump, is a fool's errand IMO.

It's a fools errand if you go to the plate with any other mentality than to hit. It looks real easy from the couch. It's frustrating to watch but slumps happen.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 10:20 AM
Why? How do you get out of a slump? If it is a simple answer, why don't teams do it in the early stages of a slump? Isn't it just as silly to imply that "everyone knows that isn't how you get out of a slump"?

Well, then enlighten us. Enlighten the players. Enlighten Brook Jacoby. I'm sure they would all welcome the genius of our board members that have discovered the holy grail of baseball.

What? You don't have a solution? Or is that "you take pitches, everyone but Dusty knows that!" If you know how hitters get out of slumps, and how teams get out of team wide slumps, please share this information. It would be a historically significant discovery, likely worthy of "Branch Rickey and the farm system status" in the annals of the game.

I know that as a former college player and a current coach, I don't encourage hacking away during a slump... Most of the time during slumps, you're not seeing the ball well or you get jumpy and miss pitches you normally put good swings on. If I was really struggling at the plate, I tried to take more pitches and told my self to wait longer (let the ball get deeper) and tried to hit the ball over the 2nd baseman. Now, I know the level of competition is different and these guys have way more experience and are in their position for a reason... But the value of being patient working the pitcher, and changing an approach to enable yourself to track the ball better at the plate is very important. The best hitter on the team and the best hitter in the NL (aside from Matt Kemp) is an expert at doing this when he is struggling. He constantly sees more pitches, he looks to go the other way, he lets the ball get deep, and he doesn't try to do to much with a certain pitch. Now, not everyone has Joey Votto skill but they could benefit from a Joey Votto approach.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 10:24 AM
It's a fine line that most players without Joey Votto bat control and skill struggle with during a slump, and even a player of that caliber will struggle. Staying aggressive while being patient is a tough thing to do. Letting the ball get deep when it is traveling 95mph is definitely not as easy as it sounds. Not many people have seen what that looks like. Reaction time is very limited. Mix in a hammer breaking pitch and change and it gets even harder. I realize these guys are pro's but slumps happen at every level. Always have, always will. No sure cure. The mental aspect is huge. I never felt like I was getting out of a slump when I walked. I was happy to be on, but it takes a couple of hits to change the mental attitude, which is huge.

jojo
04-15-2012, 10:25 AM
It's a fools errand if you go to the plate with any other mentality than to hit. It looks real easy from the couch. It's frustrating to watch but slumps happen.

So anyone who argues the best way to get out of a slump is by taking the best approach at the plate as possible is a couch sitter who doesn't understand the game?

Interesting.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 10:31 AM
So anyone who argues the best way to get out of a slump is by taking the best approach at the plate as possible is a couch sitter who doesn't understand the game?

Interesting.

Maybe you, but not everyone. ;) But, it does look much easier from the couch, or a seat in the stands than it actually is because most of these guys make it look easy most of the time. Most people have not stood in a batters box and faced 95mph fastballs. It's just the way it is. You will have no luck arguing otherwise. Understanding the game and playing the game are two different things, although playing at any level where pitching reaches the 90+ range can give you a little better perspective on the difficulty.

REDblooded
04-15-2012, 10:31 AM
So anyone who argues the best way to get out of a slump is by taking the best approach at the plate as possible is a couch sitter who doesn't understand the game?

Interesting.


Let's see how I can take somebody's words and twist them as much as possible to create an argument that doesn't exist...

Congrats.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 10:32 AM
Let's see how I can take somebody's words and twist them as much as possible to create an argument that doesn't exist...

Congrats.

Hey, it's typical.;)

jojo
04-15-2012, 10:35 AM
Let's see how I can take somebody's words and twist them as much as possible to create an argument that doesn't exist...

Congrats.

It's exactly what he posted. He just followed up by suggesting if you haven't faced a 95 mph fastball you don't know.

It's called hacking for a reason.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 10:38 AM
It's exactly what he posted. He just followed up by suggesting if you haven't faced a 95 mph fastball you don't know.


And I will stand by the comments that I have made. If you haven't faced a 95mph fastball, you have no idea what it is like.

"Hackinig" about it is only coming from you.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 10:40 AM
I know it's not easy and I know that most people haven't stood in the box against 95 mph heat. But these guys have and they have throughout their pro career... For instance, in the 8th (maybe 9th) Heisey walked on 4 pitches to start the inning. Stubbs then goes to the plate, gets ahead 1-0, and then proceeds to swing at a breaking ball out of the zone. Dusty's philosophy shines through in this AB... The Reds are down 4-1, the pitcher has thrown 5 consecutive pitches out of the zone and Stubbs is swinging at a breaking ball. I don't care if its a fastball down the middle, no way no how should Stubbs be swinging there! He walks and the tying run comes to the plate... The entire lineup should know the situation and no better than to swing the bat right there. That tells me that these guys don't have a team hitting strategy other than swing the bat and hope something good happens.

jojo
04-15-2012, 10:43 AM
And I will stand by the comments that I have made. If you haven't faced a 95mph fastball, you have no idea what it is like.

"Hackinig" about it is only coming from you.

You don't have to face a 95 mph fastball to understand the complexities of hitting.

Anyone who has ever been in the batters box against competition that challenged their reaction time can appreciate the problem.

The best way to get out of a slump is to have the best approach possible. that's because it's the bet way to have success to begin with.

mth123
04-15-2012, 10:44 AM
This is silly stuff in this thread. You get out of a slump the same way you hit the rest of the time. Get a good pitch to hit and whack it. Seems to me that most of these guys who are struggling are watching real good pitches to hit go by and falling behind in the count. Then they are forced to swing at strikes that they can't handle because they'll strike out looking otherwise. If they are taking these pitches looking for a walk, they'll never hit.

The number one myth on this board is that walks equal plate discipline. Walks are a by-product of a good hitting approach but not the primary goal. Good plate discipline always starts with hitting the real good pitch to hit whenever in the PA that it comes because there won't likely be another one. Taking hitters pitches puts the hitter in a position of having to swing at that pitch on the outside corner at the knees because he's behind in the count. There is nothing in Dusty's comments telling these guys that they should be swing at pitches over their head or a foot outside. He's just saying don't let those good ones go by. Letting good pitches to hit fly by are what slumps are made of, particularly for the guy in Centerfield on this team.

HokieRed
04-15-2012, 10:45 AM
I know it's not easy and I know that most people haven't stood in the box against 95 mph heat. But these guys have and they have throughout their pro career... For instance, in the 8th (maybe 9th) Heisey walked on 4 pitches to start the inning. Stubbs then goes to the plate, gets ahead 1-0, and then proceeds to swing at a breaking ball out of the zone. Dusty's philosophy shines through in this AB... The Reds are down 4-1, the pitcher has thrown 5 consecutive pitches out of the zone and Stubbs is swinging at a breaking ball. I don't care if its a fastball down the middle, no way no how should Stubbs be swinging there! He walks and the tying run comes to the plate... The entire lineup should know the situation and no better than to swing the bat right there. That tells me that these guys don't have a team hitting strategy other than swing the bat and hope something good happens.

It may tell you instead that Stubbs' pitch recognition is not fast enough. It was a very mediocre breaking ball.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 10:47 AM
And I will stand by the comments that I have made. If you haven't faced a 95mph fastball, you have no idea what it is like.

"Hackinig" about it is only coming from you.

Also, not that I was involved in your discussion with Jojo but I have faced 95 mph fastballs... And so have all of the guys in the Reds uniform. They have the ability to change approach and see more pitches while cutting down on their swing. I'm not an advocate of becoming a punch and judy guy just to avoid Ks or turning guys with pop into slap hitters because they strike out too much. I am an advocate of seeing more pitches, cutting down on your swing, and having a plan at the plate in certain situation or when you are struggling at the plate.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 10:49 AM
Sometimes you just see it better than others. Slumps are tough. Mental attitude affects plate approach and confidence. All the theories sound great and have relevance, but obviously, if it was as easy as it sounds, guys would not have slumps. I've faced 95mph fastballs too. It's not easy. A couple of hits and the good feeling and confidence that it brings is nice remedy, as is facing a pitcher who is a little off his game. Reds have seen some pristine pitching performances early.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 10:52 AM
It may tell you instead that Stubbs' pitch recognition is not fast enough. It was a very mediocre breaking ball.

I wholeheartedly agree that Stubbs has pitch recognition problems. I've stated many times that Stubbs is a guess hitter, and doesn't have the ability to adjust during an AB... But that situation calls for a "take" no matter what the pitch is or where it is located. I don't care if Dusty has to give the take sign, every guy on the team should know better than to swing right there. It's a philosophy and a plan the team should buy into, and players have to know the situation when they are at the plate.

_Sir_Charles_
04-15-2012, 10:52 AM
This is silly stuff in this thread. You get out of a slump the same way you hit the rest of the time. Get a good pitch to hit and whack it. Seems to me that most of these guys who are struggling are watching real good pitches to hit go by and falling behind in the count. Then they are forced to swing at strikes that they can't handle because they'll strike out looking otherwise. If they are taking these pitches looking for a walk, they'll never hit.

The number one myth on this board is that walks equal plate discipline. Walks are a by-product of a good hitting approach but not the primary goal. Good plate discipline always starts with hitting the real good pitch to hit whenever in the PA that it comes because there won't likely be another one. Taking hitters pitches puts the hitter in a position of having to swing at that pitch on the outside corner at the knees because he's behind in the count. There is nothing in Dusty's comments telling these guys that they should be swing at pitches over their head or a foot outside. He's just saying don't let those good ones go by. Letting good pitches to hit fly by are what slumps are made of, particularly for the guy in Centerfield on this team.

:clap: Thank you. This thread was getting ridiculous with all the "experts".

Kc61
04-15-2012, 10:53 AM
It might if they listen to the manager and continue to try and hit their way out of a slump rather than walk their way out of it (IE, swing early and often rather than waiting for good pitches to swing at). BABIP only works if you are swinging at good pitches.
Of course now I am just piling on Dusty for his silly comments.

Let's just put Dusty's comment in context. He did not say the Reds should take a poor approach, they should swing early, they shouldn't wait for good pitches.

He said the Reds will have to hit their way out of a slump, not walk their way out of it and I agree.

The Cards and Reds right now have equivalent numbers of walks, Cards 26, Reds 24.

Cards though have a huge advantage in hits. 94 for Cards, 57 for Reds.

Cards have an .840 OPS, Reds .561. Cards are the more successful offensive team because of hitting, not walking.

As mth's post says, we have to distinguish between plate approach and walks. Dusty's point and I agree is that an offense cannot be built around walks. It must be built around hitting the baseball successfully.

To achieve this, though, the plate approach has to be solid and I agree with Doug and others that the Reds plate approach is impatient and seemingly without plan.

I also think you need the correct personnel, and on offense I think the personnel doesn't add up to a superior offensive team. Different subject.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 10:54 AM
This is silly stuff in this thread. You get out of a slump the same way you hit the rest of the time. Get a good pitch to hit and whack it. Seems to me that most of these guys who are struggling are watching real good pitches to hit go by and falling behind in the count. Then they are forced to swing at strikes that they can't handle because they'll strike out looking otherwise. If they are taking these pitches looking for a walk, they'll never hit.

The number one myth on this board is that walks equal plate discipline. Walks are a by-product of a good hitting approach but not the primary goal. Good plate discipline always starts with hitting the real good pitch to hit whenever in the PA that it comes because there won't likely be another one. Taking hitters pitches puts the hitter in a position of having to swing at that pitch on the outside corner at the knees because he's behind in the count. There is nothing in Dusty's comments telling these guys that they should be swing at pitches over their head or a foot outside. He's just saying don't let those good ones go by. Letting good pitches to hit fly by are what slumps are made of, particularly for the guy in Centerfield on this team.


I could not disagree more.

Roy Tucker
04-15-2012, 10:59 AM
I read this in the comics this morning and thought of this thread... "We never win any ballgames but we have some interesting discussions"

http://cdn.svcs.c2.uclick.com/c2/72cf4e104aed012f2fd100163e41dd5b

mth123
04-15-2012, 10:59 AM
I could not disagree more.

Ted Williams and Babe Ruth agree with me. I'll take your opinion under advisement.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 11:05 AM
Sometimes you just see it better than others. Slumps are tough.

I agree 100% with this... That's why you have to adjust your approach in order to help yourself see the ball longer/better. Sometimes you have to cut down on things and make an effort to do things different for an AB or two. The more you see a pitcher and the more you battle him, normally you become more comfortable with his stuff and more confident you can do something with it. We have seen time after time, Mr Votto slap pitches foul to the leftside. He'll poke and jab at the ball in order to give himself a chance when he's not feeling comfortable or seeing the ball well. His swing will be half of what it normally is and sometimes it looks like he's hitting the ball out of the catchers mit. That is by design, that is his approach, that is why the man hits it so well to LF. He's a freaky strong to the opposite field and the guy has a tools that most could only dream of, but watch his approach against tough lefty. Watch what he does when he's not seeing the ball well... The guy takes more pitches, he cuts down on his swing, and he battles the guy until he gets something he can handle. Not all players have this ability, but I also don't see many players have his approach.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 11:08 AM
Ted Williams and Babe Ruth agree with me. I'll take your opinion under advisement.

Yes, two guys that were freaks of nature... Ted Williams couldn't believe that guys couldn't see the breaking ball out of the pitchers hand. The game slows down for some guys, others are over matched. Pujols has the ability to slow down an AB and make it look easy... Guys that are as good as some of the games greats have to change things and look to make adjustments to their approach and pitch selection.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 11:09 AM
The "real" home run king said this about slumps, whether right or wrong:


My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging.
Hank Aaron

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 11:10 AM
I agree 100% with this... That's why you have to adjust your approach in order to help yourself see the ball longer/better. Sometimes you have to cut down on things and make an effort to do things different for an AB or two. The more you see a pitcher and the more you battle him, normally you become more comfortable with his stuff and more confident you can do something with it. We have seen time after time, Mr Votto slap pitches foul to the leftside. He'll poke and jab at the ball in order to give himself a chance when he's not feeling comfortable or seeing the ball well. His swing will be half of what it normally is and sometimes it looks like he's hitting the ball out of the catchers mit. That is by design, that is his approach, that is why the man hits it so well to LF. He's a freaky strong to the opposite field and the guy has a tools that most could only dream of, but watch his approach against tough lefty. Watch what he does when he's not seeing the ball well... The guy takes more pitches, he cuts down on his swing, and he battles the guy until he gets something he can handle. Not all players have this ability, but I also don't see many players have his approach.

Don't disagree with any of what you are saying. Guys like Votto are freaks of nature too. It's just easier said than done, and honestly, some guys just can't do it. By the way, where do you coach?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 11:22 AM
You don't have to face a 95 mph fastball to understand the complexities of hitting.

Maybe not, but there is absolutely no question that those who have played at a higher level and faced a 95 mph fastball with good off speed stuff to go with it, on numerous occasions, gives a person way more insight than those who only spout the theories.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2012, 11:22 AM
Don't disagree with any of what you are saying. Guys like Votto are freaks of nature too. It's just easier said than done, and honestly, some guys just can't do it. By the way, where do you coach?

sent you a pm

jojo
04-15-2012, 11:29 AM
Maybe not, but there is absolutely no question that those who have played at a higher level and faced a 95 mph fastball with good off speed stuff to go with it, on numerous occasions, gives a person way more insight than those who only spout the theories.

Then how do you judge these theories?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 11:35 AM
Then how do you judge these theories?

Read my posts without turning them around and injecting your vitriol and you will probably get a good idea.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 11:40 AM
I am not wanting to be corrosive here, but jojo is correct. You don't have to have face 95 mph heat to understand the psychological approach to an at bat, especially from a team standpoint. We are not discussing how to pick up a breaking ball out of the pitchers hand, but rather the best way for a team to not make outs.

jojo
04-15-2012, 11:47 AM
The notion that one has to face 95 mph velocity and good offspeed/breaking stuff to have insight into hitting just isn't true.

It's not vitriolic to point it out either.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 11:48 AM
I am not wanting to be corrosive here, but jojo is correct. You don't have to have face 95 mph heat to understand the psychological approach to an at bat, especially from a team standpoint. We are not discussing how to pick up a breaking ball out of the pitchers hand, but rather the best way for a team to not make outs.

I know what I am discussing, and picking up a breaking ball or fastball out of the pitchers hand doesn't have a huge affect on a team making outs? Man, that is just messed up.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 11:49 AM
The notion that one has to face 95 mph velocity and good offspeed/breaking stuff to have insight into hitting just isn't true.

It's not vitriolic to point it out either.

Your opinion. Fair enough, but wrong.

nate
04-15-2012, 11:50 AM
If appeal to authority arguments rule, discussion would essentially be "rah-rah" and "we'll get 'em tomorrow."

Anyhow, to me, the biggest problem with the Reds offense is a lack of patience: both from the hitters and the baseball-starved fans ready to do a gainer off the roof due to the lack of success early this season.

I can't find any team Pitches per PA stats but looking over the individual P/PA stats, it seems only Votto and Bruce grace the top 40. However, batting pace (seconds between pitches) is tracked and the Reds come up dead last. Check it out here (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=15&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=9,d).

To me, it seems that if a team is ranking that far in the "pacement" (LOL I SLAY MYSELF) that there's some sort of concerted effort to get them to be aggressive. Maybe a change in tactics can "get something going."

Or maybe they should just keep on playing and it will all work out.

Just thoughts from a former little leaguer and GM over multiple xBox baseball world championship teams.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 11:53 AM
I know what I am discussing, and picking up a breaking ball or fastball out of the pitchers hand doesn't have a huge affect on a team making outs? Man, that is just messed up.

My ability to pick up a breaking ball does not affect the Reds making outs, correct.

jojo
04-15-2012, 11:56 AM
Your opinion. Fair enough, but wrong.

It's definitely fair and it's frankly intuitive. You really want to claim that no one can provide insight into hitting unless they've faced 95 mph velocity and quality off speed stuff?

Are you sure you don't want to rethink that position?

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 11:58 AM
I am willing to listen Randy. What point are you trying to make (that others disagree with)/what point do you disagree with that having stood in a batters box vs 90mph uniquely gives you perspective, and why?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 12:03 PM
My ability to pick up a breaking ball does not affect the Reds making outs, correct.

No, but the relation to the theories that are being discussed with so much authority are dependent on the physical ability to put those theories into use. Understanding those things with real life experience certainly help a person to understand the difficulty, and the fact that it is not something you just say, "I am going to do this," and it happens magically. Picking up the baseball, or seeing it, is the beginning and biggest part of a good plate approach. When you are not seeing it, the theories go out the window.

mth123
04-15-2012, 12:05 PM
1. Swing at good pitches to hit.
2. Don't swing at pitches you can't handle.
3. With 2 strikes, protect the plate.

To me, all Dusty is saying is that the Reds need to do number 1 because when they don't, they end-up at number 3 which makes it difficult to abide by number 2.

This hasn't changed in, well, forever. Any artificial "approach" that ignores number 1 simply puts the pitcher at an even bigger advantage than he already has. If we want to quote stats, look at the almost universal drop in success rate hitters have when they fall behind in the count. If you go up there taking for the sake of taking, the odds of a successful plate appearance drop significantly IMO. No one is saying swing just for the sake of swinging.

This is much ado about nothing IMO.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 12:08 PM
It's definitely fair and it's frankly intuitive. You really want to claim that no one can provide insight into hitting unless they've faced 95 mph velocity and quality off speed stuff?

Are you sure you don't want to rethink that position?

No. One can understand it. Didn't ever say that you couldn't understand it from the couch, jojo. Matter of fact, I made reference to that earlier. But to understand it and to have experienced it, seen it firsthand and tried to put it into action are even more valuable.

Sorry if that hurts your feelings, but it's just the way it is.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 12:11 PM
Let's go to the park and find someone to throw us one pitch at 95 mph and then come back to this thread jojo. :D

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 12:12 PM
Let's go to the park and find someone to throw us one pitch at 95 mph and then come back to this thread jojo. :D

I'd like to watch. That would be fun. I don't think one pitch is going to give you much better perspective. Might get you killed, but not much else.

jojo
04-15-2012, 12:22 PM
No. One can understand it. Didn't ever say that you couldn't understand it from the couch, jojo. Matter of fact, I made reference to that earlier. But to understand it and to have experienced it. seen it firsthand and tried to put it into action are even more valuable.

Sorry if that hurts your feelings, but it's just the way it is.

Sorry Randy but appeals to authority are logical fallacies not tear jerkers.

It is good to know that you really don't believe someone has to face either David Price or Stephen Strasburg in order to understand hitting and be able to have high level discussions about hitting theory. Seriously, I was getting worried because arguing otherwise, was, well offensive (and very inappropriately dismissive of a great many in the ORG).

As for the insight we're currently debating, hitting is hard and slumps happen? I think the ORG had obtained that collective wisdom many threads before this one.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 12:59 PM
I am very confident in everything I have said. I pointed out that people can understand hitting theories, way back in post 163. Not sure why you keep bringing that up. I stand by my comment that actual experience, along with understanding based on theories is way more valuable than only understanding theory, based on something you have never actually experienced. That's no logical fallacy. If that offends you, and causes you to be upset, then be offended. I really don't care. Hitters have been going into slumps and getting out of them, way before RedsZone ever came into being.

jojo
04-15-2012, 01:30 PM
I am very confident in everything I have said. I pointed out that people can understand hitting theories, way back in post 163. Not sure why you keep bringing that up. I stand by my comment that actual experience, along with understanding based on theories is way more valuable than only understanding theory, based on something you have never actually experienced. That's no logical fallacy. If that offends you, and causes you to be upset, then be offended. I really don't care. Hitters have been going into slumps and getting out of them, way before RedsZone ever came into being.

This isn't about me Randy-not sure why you keep trying to focus upon my mental state because the argument is clear.

Facing Strasburg adds very little to understanding how velocity challenges reaction time. This lesson is engrained early in one's baseball career. If people-by your own admission- can understand hitting theory without routinely facing Strasburg, what does facing Strasburg add to "hitting is hard and slumps happen"? Failing against 95 mph is cheaply bought nobility for the purposes of this discussion. Its an appeal to authority.

If Dusty came to a redszone event and wanted to discuss hitting in depth over a beer, members of the ORG should listen to him recount the words of Cepeda, Aaron, Williams and Stargell. It would be pretty silly to interrupt. But this ain't that.

And quotes, like "We wont walk our way out of a slump" ain't that either-such generic quotes for the ears and pens of the media lend themselves exactly to critique in quality discussions about hitting that inappropriately evoking some "95 mph test" stifles.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 01:35 PM
Obviously, you feel that you are the master of this discussion so I won't waste my time saying any more. I stand by my statements and experience. If you geel like a liittle league fastball gives one as much experience and insight as facing an experienced college pitcher with a 90+ fastball and a good breaking ball and change, I can't say much else.

jojo
04-15-2012, 01:36 PM
Obviously, you feel that you are the master of this discussion so I won't waste my time saying any more. I stand by my statements and experience.

I'm not the one appealing to authority.... :eek:

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 01:43 PM
I'm not the one appealing to authority.... :eek:

And I do understand exactly why.

The Operator
04-15-2012, 01:47 PM
Obviously, you feel that you are the master of this discussion so I won't waste my time saying any more. I stand by my statements and experience. If you geel like a liittle league fastball gives one as much experience and insight as facing an experienced college pitcher with a 90+ fastball and a good breaking ball and change, I can't say much else.Randy, I agree with jojo about once a decade - but this is one of those times. You're getting on others for being too confident and sure of themselves in the argument.

Honestly, former players and coaches are always some of the most over-confident lot to argue with. They were there, they did it, they know what they're talking about! is how it normally goes.

Think about it this way. I'm sure you have some sort of leanings politically. How would you feel if, the next time you got into a debate with someone, they said "Yes, well, you don't have a law degree and you've never served public office so you really shouldn't be commenting on the matter."

jojo
04-15-2012, 01:49 PM
And I do understand exactly why.

I'm not sure what you mean but I'm pretty sure you don't understand.

But perhaps it's time you go private if you wish focus on me.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 01:55 PM
I have no desire to talk privately to you, jojo. I've seen that before and have no desire to witness that again.

As far as being confident about what I have said in this thread, yes, I am.

757690
04-15-2012, 01:56 PM
Randy, I agree with jojo about once a decade - but this is one of those times. You're getting on others for being too confident and sure of themselves in the argument.

Honestly, former players and coaches are always some of the most over-confident lot to argue with. They were there, they did it, they know what they're talking about! is how it normally goes.

Think about it this way. I'm sure you have some sort of leanings politically. How would you feel if, the next time you got into a debate with someone, they said "Yes, well, you don't have a law degree and you've never served public office so you really shouldn't be commenting on the matter."

Don't you think, however, that someone who has served public office would have better insight into certain political issues than someone who doesn't? Because that is all that Randy has been arguing.

He's not arguing that someone who hasn't played baseball can't understand the game, only that those that have played the game undertand the game better than those that haven't, everything else being equal.

I know that I have no experience in understanding advanced statistics, but I do have some understanding of it. However, I assume that anyone who has real experience in advanced statistics would understand it better than I would.

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:01 PM
Don't you think, however, that someone who has served public office would have better insight into certain political issues than someone who doesn't? Because that is all that Randy has been arguing.I have a feeling if that person was on the opposite side of Randy in the argument, things would change pretty quickly. That's how appeals to authority usually work.


He's not arguing that someone who hasn't played baseball can't understand the game, only that those that have played the game understand the game better than those that haven't, everything else being equal. I'm a former athlete. I haven't faced 95 mph, but I have faced 87, and believe me when I tell you I'm VERY experienced in the field of slumping (:D) But does 8 mph really give someone that much of an edge in a discussion?

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:04 PM
Reds have 4 runs today on only 2 hits, just sayin'. ;)

Tom Servo
04-15-2012, 02:05 PM
Reds have 4 runs today on only 2 hits, just sayin'. ;)
Season's over though, this team was DOA. Remember?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:12 PM
I have a feeling if that person was on the opposite side of Randy in the argument, things would change pretty quickly. That's how appeals to authority usually work.

Care to explain that assumption?


I'm a former athlete. I haven't faced 95 mph, but I have faced 87, and believe me when I tell you I'm VERY experienced in the field of slumping (:D) But does 8 mph really give someone that much of an edge in a discussion?

It's been my experience that most players will tell you that there is a huge difference between 90 and 95+. 87 is fast, no doubt. I'd say they all would trump 47-50, wouldn't you?


He's not arguing that someone who hasn't played baseball can't understand the game, only that those that have played the game undertand the game better than those that haven't, everything else being equal.


Pretty simple concept.:beerme:

757690
04-15-2012, 02:13 PM
I have a feeling if that person was on the opposite side of Randy in the argument, things would change pretty quickly. That's how appeals to authority usually work.

I'm a former athlete. I haven't faced 95 mph, but I have faced 87, and believe me when I tell you I'm VERY experienced in the field of slumping (:D) But does 8 mph really give someone that much of an edge in a discussion?

No offense, but if I want to find out the best way to get out of an MLB slump, I'm going to value what Jay Bruce says over what you say. And I'm going to value what you say, over what my brother, who has never played above little league, would say.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:15 PM
No offense, but if I want to find out the best way to get out of an MLB slump, I'm going to value what Jay Bruce says over what you say. And I'm going to value what you say, over what my brother, who has never played above little league, would say.

No kiddin'? :)

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:17 PM
Being struck out by a 95 mph fastball informs what exactly over being struck out by an 87 mph fastball?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:18 PM
Being struck out by a 95 mph fastball informs what exactly over being struck out by an 87 mph fastball?

I guess you'll never know, huh?

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:19 PM
Care to explain that assumption?Pretty simple really. If you were in a spirited debate on politics, and someone attempted to shut down your argument saying "You're not a lawyer nor have you served in Congress, so don't go criticizing!" I have a feeling you'd call them on it pretty quick. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just get the feeling you'd nail them on it.


It's been my experience that most players will tell you that there is a huge difference between 90 and 95+. 87 is fast, no doubt. I'd say they all would trump 47-50, wouldn't you?Eh, maybe. That's the thing though, I rarely if ever mention my playing days in an argument because honestly I don't think it does give me that much of an edge.

I doubt Walt Jocketty has faced a 95 mph fastball, should he really be making decisions then about the construction of the team?

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:22 PM
I guess you'll never know, huh?

You assume way too much (which is the primary weakness of assuming a "moral authority" on any issue) but more importantly, you're refusing to answer a simple, direct question for which you've posited yourself as one of the few authorities capable of answering....

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:23 PM
No offense, but if I want to find out the best way to get out of an MLB slump, I'm going to value what Jay Bruce says over what you say. And I'm going to value what you say, over what my brother, who has never played above little league, would say.Sure, but that's kinda the opposite of the point I was making. I don't expect anyone to take my advice on hitting, I wasn't that good - had power but not much else. Drew Stubbs at the nano level, if you will.

People who fail are much more likely to be open to different viewpoints in an argument.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 02:23 PM
I asked a direct question too in post 190 and it was ignored as well.

757690
04-15-2012, 02:24 PM
Being struck out by a 95 mph fastball informs what exactly over being struck out by an 87 mph fastball?

The assumption that you have extra knowledge about getting out an MLB slump is that you have also gotten hits off of a 95 MPH fastball.

I imagine Willie Taveras doesn't have much more to say about getting out of an MLB slump than I do, but I imagine that Brandon Phillips does.

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:25 PM
The assumption that you have extra knowledge about getting out an MLB slump is that you have also gotten hits off of a 95 MPH fastball.

I imagine Willie Taveras doesn't have much more to say about getting out of an MLB slump than I do, but I imagine that Brandon Phillips does.If that's true, how come a great number of MLB coaches weren't that great in their playing days?

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 02:26 PM
If that's true, how come a great number of MLB coaches weren't that great in their playing days?

And how is Dave Duncan the worlds best pitching coach?

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:27 PM
Pretty simple really. If you were in a spirited debate on politics, and someone attempted to shut down your argument saying "You're not a lawyer nor have you served in Congress, so don't go criticizing!" I have a feeling you'd call them on it pretty quick. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just get the feeling you'd nail them on it.

Simply put, a logical extension of Randy's argument is that he has no business critiquing Obama's job performance because Randy is not as qualified as Obama. Take it another logical step forward and he is not really even qualified to vote.


I doubt Walt Jocketty has faced a 95 mph fastball, should he really be making decisions then about the construction of the team?

How many scouts have actually faced a Strasburg?

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:27 PM
I suppose my point is this:

Jay Bruce obviously knows how to actually hit than I or anyone else does, for that matter.

But you don't have to know how to hit a 95 mph fastball to have an opinion on the best way to approach an atbat, just as you don't need to be a lawyer or have served public office to have a strong opinion (and most people usually have VERY strong opinions) on politics.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:28 PM
Pretty simple really. If you were in a spirited debate on politics, and someone attempted to shut down your argument saying "You're not a lawyer nor have you served in Congress, so don't go criticizing!" I have a feeling you'd call them on it pretty quick. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just get the feeling you'd nail them on it.

Eh, maybe. That's the thing though, I rarely if ever mention my playing days in an argument because honestly I don't think it does give me that much of an edge.

I doubt Walt Jocketty has faced a 95 mph fastball, should he really be making decisions then about the construction of the team?

Nope, I'm not going to pretend to know things that an attorney would know. RedsBaron, or any other attorney here on Redszone or anywhere, is far superior to me on every issues of the law. I wouldn't attempt to argue with him. With that said, everyone has a right to an opinion but it doesn't always make them right. Nobody has to agree with me on this, but I'm not going to back down on anything that I have said. I have had some experience in the game of baseball so I feel pretty confident in my knowledge. With that said, it certainly isn't comparable to those with big league experience. There are many other things that I am not real knowledgeable about. Some folks seem to know everything about everything and I think that says all you need to know.

As far as Walt Jocketty, I would hope that he has a lot of advisors that have a tremendous amount of experience in the game. I would expect that he listens to them.

The Operator
04-15-2012, 02:29 PM
And how is Dave Duncan the worlds best pitching coach?
GREAT example.

Guy never threw a pitch in his entire career, but I doubt many guys ignore his advice due to that fact.

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:29 PM
Besides who cares if someone has faced a 95 mph fastball if they can't hit it? I guess it would provide some insight into how not to hit one if that topic ever came up for discussion?

757690
04-15-2012, 02:29 PM
If that's true, how come a great number of MLB coaches weren't that great in their playing days?

I was being silly with the Taveras reference. He might actually be an expert on slumps, lol.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:31 PM
I was being silly with the Taveras reference. He might actually be an expert on slumps, lol.

Any Little Leaguer could be an expert using jojo's flawed logic.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:34 PM
Simply put, a logical extension of Randy's argument is that he has no business critiquing Obama's job performance because Randy is not as qualified as Obama. Take it another logical step forward and he is not really even qualified to vote.

This is not the political forum so bringing that over here is probably not the best idea. If you want to discuss that, take it over there.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:35 PM
Besides who cares if someone has faced a 95 mph fastball if they can't hit it? I guess it would provide some insight into how not to hit one if that topic ever came up for discussion?

I'd take that persons experience, any day, over the guy who couldn't hit a 42mph fastball.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:36 PM
GREAT example.

Guy never threw a pitch in his entire career, but I doubt many guys ignore his advice due to that fact.

True, but he caught quite a few and had a birds eye view of some good ones.

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:37 PM
Any Little Leaguer could be an expert using jojo's flawed logic.

Why couldn't any little leaguer mature into an adult with a great insight into hitting? Flawed logic is rejecting that notion out of hand because of an appeal to authority based upon an arbitrary 95 mph standard.

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:38 PM
This is not the political forum so bringing that over here is probably not the best idea. If you want to discuss that, take it over there.

Clearly neither The Operator's nor my comments were political in spirit but rather used as analogies to illustrate the underlying point.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:38 PM
Why couldn't any little leaguer mature into an adult with a great insight into hitting? Flawed logic is rejecting that notion out of hand because of an appeal to authority based upon an arbitrary 95 mph standard.

Hypothetically, I guess they could. Examples?

757690
04-15-2012, 02:40 PM
And how is Dave Duncan the worlds best pitching coach?

Being a good catcher requires one to have extensive knowledge of pitching. Moat catchers would make good pitching coaches, cause they kinda are already.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:40 PM
Clearly neither The Operator's nor my comments were political in spirit but rather used as analogies to illustrate the underlying point.

Oh, I catch your spirit. I just don't agree with you. Keep the political out of here.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 02:40 PM
Clearly neither The Operator's nor my comments were political in spirit but rather used as analogies to illustrate the underlying point.

It was textbook misdirection.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:40 PM
Being a good catcher requires one to have extensive knowledge of pitching. Moat catchers would make good pitching coaches, cause they kinda are already.

Yes, that would seem to be a well known fact. I guess some don't realize that.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:41 PM
It was textbook misdirection.

Yes it was, to begin with when "they" brought it up.

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:43 PM
I'd take that persons experience, any day, over the guy who couldn't hit a 42mph fastball.

I'd listen to what each have to say and decide who actually has a more valid point and stronger argument before drawing any conclusion. But that's just me.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 02:46 PM
So do skilled laborers always know better about how to improve their labor than their supervisor, or someone who has extensively studied the skill?

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:46 PM
I'd listen to what each have to say and decide who actually has a more valid point and stronger argument before drawing any conclusion. But that's just me.

Yes, that is just you, and I think that in nearly every instance you would find out that anyone who has had the opportunity and experience of facing high quality baseball competition will have better knowledge than someone who topped out somewhere in Little League.

jojo
04-15-2012, 02:47 PM
Oh, I catch your spirit. I just don't agree with you. Keep the political out of here.

It pointed out a very glaring disconnect in application of the "95 mph" standard and I wasn't the one who brought it up so perhaps you should direct your comments to the source.

RANDY IN INDY
04-15-2012, 02:49 PM
So do skilled laborers always know better about how to improve their labor than their supervisor, or someone who has extensively studied the skill?

It's been my experience that to extensively know about something, to be a manager, advisor or an expert, one usually has some experience in performing that skill, or has the good sense to listen and learn from people who have that direct experience.

kaldaniels
04-15-2012, 02:51 PM
It's been my experience that to extensively know about something, to be a manager, advisor or an expert, one usually has some experience in performing that skill, or has the good sense to listen and learn from people who have that direct experience.

And I think that sums it up, with all due respect, it is "your experience".

757690
04-15-2012, 02:51 PM
So do skilled laborers always know better about how to improve their labor than their supervisor, or someone who has extensively studied the skill?

Most companies require supervisors to have actual experience in what they are supervising. I know even casinos require that bit posses have experience dealing.