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powersackers
04-16-2012, 02:09 AM
The Cardinals pull another stud out of their farm. Filling in for Lance Berkman this weekend: In the three-game series, Matt Carpenter was 7-for-12 with a double, two triples, a homer and seven RBIs as a substitute for Lance Berkman.

Read more here: http://www.bnd.com/2012/04/15/2142183/lance-who-matt-carpenter-sizzles.html#storylink=cpy

Article says Freese and Berkman are back Tuesday vs our Reds, plus this stud carpenter will be pestering us. Losing Albert really isn't going to hurt the Redbirds much at all.

757690
04-16-2012, 02:13 AM
The Cardinals pull another stud out of their farm. Filling in for Lance Berkman this weekend: In the three-game series, Matt Carpenter was 7-for-12 with a double, two triples, a homer and seven RBIs as a substitute for Lance Berkman.

Read more here: http://www.bnd.com/2012/04/15/2142183/lance-who-matt-carpenter-sizzles.html#storylink=cpy

Article says Freese and Berkman are back Tuesday vs our Reds, plus this stud carpenter will be pestering us. Losing Albert really isn't going to hurt the Redbirds much at all.

... yet ;)

dougdirt
04-16-2012, 02:32 AM
It won't last with him. He slugged .463 as a 25 year old in a hitters heaven type league. But, it wouldn't surprise me if he turned into a solid Major Leaguer. He gets on base a whole lot, but his power isn't too impressive and scouts question his tools.

oneupper
04-16-2012, 06:44 AM
I'll take a guy with those on-base skills (over .400 OBP career milb), all day, every day.

dougdirt
04-16-2012, 09:03 AM
I'll take a guy with those on-base skills (over .400 OBP career milb), all day, every day.

Certainly. But he isn't an Albert Pujols replacement.

jojo
04-16-2012, 09:22 AM
Albert is off to a slow start (.243/.300/.324) as an Angel anyway...

Roy Tucker
04-16-2012, 10:19 AM
Certainly. But he isn't an Albert Pujols replacement.

Not many of those around.

traderumor
04-16-2012, 11:06 AM
I think this title is more accurate.

REDREAD
04-16-2012, 11:07 AM
I heard Matt Carpenter interviewed on the radio over the weekend.

He said some people will approach him for his autograph, then realize he's not Chris Carpenter and then walk away :laugh:

traderumor
04-16-2012, 12:54 PM
I heard Matt Carpenter interviewed on the radio over the weekend.

He said some people will approach him for his autograph, then realize he's not Chris Carpenter and then walk away :laugh:He ought to sign "not Cris Carpenter" to those who stay.

Brutus
04-16-2012, 01:00 PM
I heard Matt Carpenter interviewed on the radio over the weekend.

He said some people will approach him for his autograph, then realize he's not Chris Carpenter and then walk away :laugh:

How will he explain to his son that he isn't Chris Carpenter?

fearofpopvol1
04-16-2012, 01:01 PM
I heard Matt Carpenter interviewed on the radio over the weekend.

He said some people will approach him for his autograph, then realize he's not Chris Carpenter and then walk away :laugh:

Since it has to be said, what will Chris Carpenter tell his son?

PuffyPig
04-16-2012, 02:24 PM
The Cardinals pull another stud out of their farm. .

(sigh)

cincrazy
04-16-2012, 02:29 PM
(sigh)

Why the sigh? The Cards are infinitely better at doing this kind of stuff than our own Reds. In general, their minor league players that come up look ready to go. Jon Jay. Allen Craig. Matt Carpenter. None of them are super-hyped prospects, but all of them are solid contributors to a winning baseball team. The Cardinals collect a few superstars, and surround them with awesome role players. While the Reds have collected a few superstars, and surrounded them with "meh."

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 02:47 PM
Why the sigh? The Cards are infinitely better at doing this kind of stuff than our own Reds. In general, their minor league players that come up look ready to go. Jon Jay. Allen Craig. Matt Carpenter. None of them are super-hyped prospects, but all of them are solid contributors to a winning baseball team. The Cardinals collect a few superstars, and surround them with awesome role players. While the Reds have collected a few superstars, and surrounded them with "meh."

I think with guys like Jon Jay and Daniel Descalso, they aren't the most highly skilled guys in the world but they work their butt off to improve. Colby Rasmus obviously has more tools than Jon Jay but Jon Jay has worked very hard to become a better hitter and a better defender. Jon Jay's routes to the ball in center field are significantly better than Rasmus routes ever were. When the Cards call up someone from the minors to replace a player on the DL, they aren't necissarily going to be a stud at any particular part of the game. However in general, they will mostly do everything well. If you have a team full of players who do things well and the way it should be done, paired with high quality players like Matt Holliday and Beltran, generally it leads to success. You are pretty much spot on here cincrazy with how the Cards build a roster.


It won't last with him. He slugged .463 as a 25 year old in a hitters heaven type league. But, it wouldn't surprise me if he turned into a solid Major Leaguer. He gets on base a whole lot, but his power isn't too impressive and scouts question his tools.

He is an adequate replacement for Berkman for a couple of days. I don't think the Cards want Carpenter to replace anyone long term. I think they view him as a John Mabry type who can fill in and do well when players are injured or need a day off.

jojo
04-16-2012, 02:51 PM
(sigh)

Unfortunately for the central, the Cards look like they've built a farm system that will be capable of delivering some quality talent. And they don't mind spending money.

Ghosts of 1990
04-16-2012, 03:03 PM
I've been saying for a while now IF Freese can stay healthy I think he can out-produce Albert's 2012.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 03:15 PM
I've been saying for a while now IF Freese can stay healthy I think he can out-produce Albert's 2012.

I think if he stays healthy, Freese has the potential to be in the conversation for MVP at the end of the year. With the way the Cards lineup is constructed, there will almost always be guys on base when he comes up to bat in the 5th spot so he will have a ton of RBI opportunities this year.

757690
04-16-2012, 03:16 PM
I think with guys like Jon Jay and Daniel Descalso, they aren't the most highly skilled guys in the world but they work their butt off to improve.

This has been the key to Cardinal success for decades. Their development system consistently produces replacement level to league average players, mostly from middle round draft picks with average natural talent. Nothing special, but solid, cheap production.

This saves them from spending money on 4th outfielders, middle relievers and the like. The Reds are getting there, thanks to Jocketty, and we'll see how the Cards do without Jocketty, LaRussa and Duncan.

LegallyMinded
04-16-2012, 03:25 PM
I'd say it's worth noting that the Cardinals so far this year have the highest BABIP of any team in the majors. It's easy to overlook Pujols's absence when their BABIP is 40 points higher than it was last year.

Interestingly, the Reds right now have the third worst BABIP in the MLB. Hopefully, things start to even out in this upcoming series.

jojo
04-16-2012, 03:29 PM
The Reds are getting there, thanks to Jocketty, and we'll see how the Cards do without Jocketty, LaRussa and Duncan.

Considering they've doubled up on the Reds concerning playoff appearances since his departure including winning a WS and they now have one of the best farm systems in baseball while looking competitive for another playoff appearance, I'd say the Cardinals are doing very well without Jocketty.

Unfortunately, I dont see a reason to argue that a changing of guards is destined especially since the Reds farm as it stands isn't looking like it'll feed high end restaurants over the next several years. It looks like a dog fight to me. The bright side is that now the Reds actually have a dog in the fight.

mbgrayson
04-16-2012, 03:58 PM
I'd say it's worth noting that the Cardinals so far this year have the highest BABIP of any team in the majors. It's easy to overlook Pujols's absence when their BABIP is 40 points higher than it was last year.

Interestingly, the Reds right now have the third worst BABIP in the MLB. Hopefully, things start to even out in this upcoming series.

This. It is way too early to place much emphasis on stats or the team's win-loss record after only 10 games. Small sample size.

Will Matt Carpenter end up maintaining his 1.235 OPS?
Will Lance Lynn continue winning each start, and maintain his 1.50 ERA?
Will Jake Westbrook continue winning each start, and maintain his 0.64 ERA?
Will Lance Berkman be healthy enough to again play 145+ games and have an OPS north of .950?
Will David Freese maintain an OPS anywhere near 1.112 and be healthy enough to stay in the lineup?
Will Carlos Beltran maintain an OPS of 1.013 and be healthy enough to stay in the lineup?

The smart money says that NONE of these sitations will continue, and at best a couple of these players might produce near their rates for the first ten games. Regression will occur, it always does.

757690
04-16-2012, 03:59 PM
Considering they've doubled up on the Reds concerning playoff appearances since his departure including winning a WS and they now have one of the best farm systems in baseball while looking competitive for another playoff appearance, I'd say the Cardinals are doing very well without Jocketty.

Unfortunately, I dont see a reason to argue that a changing of guards is destined especially since the Reds farm as it stands isn't looking like it'll feed high end restaurants over the next several years. It looks like a dog fight to me. The bright side is that now the Reds actually have a dog in the fight.

Most of those current Cardinal role players are from Jocketty's reign. Descalso, Jay, Craig, Boggs, McClellen, Salas, etc. Plus LaRussa and Duncan had as much to do with it as Jocketty. It should be noted that the Cardinals were excellent at developing these players long before Jocketty, LaRussa and Duncan were in charge, so there's no reason to assume that it will stop now. But, we'll see...

Brutus
04-16-2012, 04:01 PM
I've been saying for a while now IF Freese can stay healthy I think he can out-produce Albert's 2012.

Let's not get carried away. David Freese is a good hitter, but doubtful he'll sustain a .900 OPS in any full season.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 04:18 PM
Let's not get carried away. David Freese is a good hitter, but doubtful he'll sustain a .900 OPS in any full season.

If he constantly has 1 or 2 guys on base, regardless of a .900 OPS, I can see Freese giving the Cardinals Pujols RBI type production. I also think Freese is the type of hitter where he could easily produce a .900+ OPS season. He takes the ball to all fields and isn't pull happy.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 04:24 PM
This. It is way too early to place much emphasis on stats or the team's win-loss record after only 10 games. Small sample size.

Will Matt Carpenter end up maintaining his 1.235 OPS?
Will Lance Lynn continue winning each start, and maintain his 1.50 ERA?
Will Jake Westbrook continue winning each start, and maintain his 0.64 ERA?
Will Lance Berkman be healthy enough to again play 145+ games and have an OPS north of .950?
Will David Freese maintain an OPS anywhere near 1.112 and be healthy enough to stay in the lineup?
Will Carlos Beltran maintain an OPS of 1.013 and be healthy enough to stay in the lineup?

The smart money says that NONE of these sitations will continue, and at best a couple of these players might produce near their rates for the first ten games. Regression will occur, it always does.

You are right. However many of those players like Beltran and Berkman are traditionally good to great players. Beltran will not maintain an OPS of 1.013 but he certainly won't tale off too drastically from that production.

The overlooked thing is that the Cards get production from all up and down their lineup. Last year, they had like 6 or 7 players who hit over .290. They didn't solely rely on one or two players to get it done last season. If the top of the lineup guys don't get anything done, there were guys lower in the lineup that got it done. Take Saturday's game for example. There was only 1 hit for the first four guys in the lineup. The rest of the lineup produced well. I could easily see a situation this year where players 1-6 have a .290+ batting average once again. Injuries can derail a lot of it but if the Cards remain healthy, they have guys with track records with high production.

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 04:35 PM
Geez. It's early.

Cards are old. We know what age does to a team.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 04:46 PM
Geez. It's early.

Cards are old. We know what age does to a team.

Different sport but they keep saying that about the Red Wings but the Red Wings are still dominant :laugh:

The Cardinals average age is 28.9
The Reds average age is 28.7

That isn't a huge gap in age difference. The Cards have a lot of young players.

RichRed
04-16-2012, 04:59 PM
Different sport but they keep saying that about the Red Wings but the Red Wings are still dominant :laugh:

The Cardinals average age is 28.9
The Reds average age is 28.7

That isn't a huge gap in age difference. The Cards have a lot of young players.

That's a bit misleading. The Cards' bench guys are a lot younger than the Reds', but the ones expected to get the bulk of the playing time are older, thus skewing the average.

Starting 8 position players: Reds - 29.8, Cards - 30.9

Starting 5 rotation: Reds - 27, Cards - 29.4 (and if Carpenter were included...)

Bullpen: Reds - 28, Cards - 29.4

Bench: Reds - 31.4, Cards - 26

I'm not saying the Cards can't still excel because I've learned never to count on them fading, but their core talent is definitely longer in the tooth than the Reds'.

757690
04-16-2012, 05:15 PM
Different sport but they keep saying that about the Red Wings but the Red Wings are still dominant :laugh:

The Cardinals average age is 28.9
The Reds average age is 28.7

That isn't a huge gap in age difference. The Cards have a lot of young players.

Key players 34 years old or older:

Cardinals
Beltran
Berkman
Furcal
Carpenter
Westbrook

Reds
Arroyo
Rolen

Key players 26 years old and younger:

Cardinals
Descalso
Garcia

Reds
Bruce
Cozart
Cueto
Latos
Leake
Bailey
Mesoraco
Chapman

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 05:27 PM
That's a bit misleading. The Cards' bench guys are a lot younger than the Reds', but the ones expected to get the bulk of the playing time are older, thus skewing the average.

Starting 8 position players: Reds - 29.8, Cards - 30.9

Starting 5 rotation: Reds - 27, Cards - 29.4 (and if Carpenter were included...)

Bullpen: Reds - 28, Cards - 29.4

Bench: Reds - 31.4, Cards - 26

I'm not saying the Cards can't still excel because I've learned never to count on them fading, but their core talent is definitely longer in the tooth than the Reds'.

Fair point but the Cards do have a lot of players in the prime of their career 26-31. Guys like Freese and Molina are both in their prime production phases of their career.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 05:35 PM
Key players 34 years old or older:

Cardinals
Beltran
Berkman
Furcal
Carpenter
Westbrook

Reds
Arroyo
Rolen

Key players 26 years old and younger:

Cardinals
Descalso
Garcia

Reds
Bruce
Cozart
Cueto
Latos
Leake
Bailey
Mesoraco
Chapman

You forgot to add Allen Craig, Lance Lynn, and Mark Rzepczynski to that list. Allen Craig is a legit bat off the bench that was a huge key to their success last year. Many Cards fans argued that he should have been given a chance instead of signing Beltran. He is injured now but you will see his bat in the lineup probably as early as next month. Lynn is filling in for Carpenter right now and is a key piece in the bullpen. Scrabble is a huge piece in the Cards bullpen. All of those players are 26 and younger.

757690
04-16-2012, 05:45 PM
You forgot to add Allen Craig, Lance Lynn, and Mark Rzepczynski to that list. Allen Craig is a legit bat off the bench that was a huge key to their success last year. Many Cards fans argued that he should have been given a chance instead of signing Beltran. He is injured now but you will see his bat in the lineup probably as early as next month. Lynn is filling in for Carpenter right now and is a key piece in the bullpen. Scrabble is a huge piece in the Cards bullpen. All of those players are 26 and younger.

I'm listing starting lineup, starting rotation and closer only. Every player on the 25 man roster is important, but the key is who plays the most. Lynn might be in the rotation longer than expected, but that would be a bad thing for the Cardinals.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 05:55 PM
I'm listing starting lineup, starting rotation and closer only. Every player on the 25 man roster is important, but the key is who plays the most. Lynn might be in the rotation longer than expected, but that would be a bad thing for the Cardinals.

Fair point but I would still list Craig as an important key to the lineup. For one, the Cardinals have pointed out that they want to play Beltran in CF so they can get Craig's bat in the lineup. He will also give Beltran, Berkman, and Holliday rest when they need it. No, he isn't going to be in every single day but if he is making a start 3-4 times a week when he comes back, how is that not a key player in the lineup?

kaldaniels
04-16-2012, 06:06 PM
Fair point but I would still list Craig as an important key to the lineup. For one, the Cardinals have pointed out that they want to play Beltran in CF so they can get Craig's bat in the lineup. He will also give Beltran, Berkman, and Holliday rest when they need it. No, he isn't going to be in every single day but if he is making a start 3-4 times a week when he comes back, how is that not a key player in the lineup?

If Craig starts 4 games in 7 days in place of one of those guys when all 3 of those guys are healthy let me know and I will cede the point.

kaldaniels
04-16-2012, 06:15 PM
And yeah it is a bit of semantics but in regard to the discussed post Craig is moot anyway. He is 27.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 06:18 PM
If Craig starts 4 games in 7 days in place of one of those guys when all 3 of those guys are healthy let me know and I will cede the point.

The plan that they have put forward is to give older guys like Berkman and Beltran a rest on various days. They are probably going to use him like Daniel Descalso where Descalso will play many different positions when needed. The Cards are just too tempted by Craig's bat to be wasting him on the bench.

I also forgot that he turned 27 this year, so technically he isn't under 26 (obviously). Though I don't know how much of a difference you will see from a player who is 26 to 27.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2012, 06:29 PM
If he constantly has 1 or 2 guys on base, regardless of a .900 OPS, I can see Freese giving the Cardinals Pujols RBI type production. I also think Freese is the type of hitter where he could easily produce a .900+ OPS season. He takes the ball to all fields and isn't pull happy.

Considering he hasn't posted an OPS of over .800 in either of his first two semi-full seasons, and has a .370 career BABIP to this point, I find that statement pretty ridiculous.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 06:53 PM
Considering he hasn't posted an OPS of over .800 in either of his first two semi-full seasons, and has a .370 career BABIP to this point, I find that statement pretty ridiculous.

He has been injured the past two seasons so we haven't seen his full potential. His skill set suggest he could be one of the most productive 3rd basemen in baseball. Probably not to the level of a Miguel Cabrera but near the top of 3rd baseman production. Whether you think it's ridiculous or not, he is a legit hitter.

dougdirt
04-16-2012, 07:02 PM
He has been injured the past two seasons so we haven't seen his full potential. His skill set suggest he could be one of the most productive 3rd basemen in baseball. Probably not to the level of a Miguel Cabrera but near the top of 3rd baseman production. Whether you think it's ridiculous or not, he is a legit hitter.

He is also a guy who is 29 years old who hasn't had a full season in the Major Leagues yet. The odds are better that he is a solid guy than near the top of the 3rd base production in baseball.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2012, 07:03 PM
He has been injured the past two seasons so we haven't seen his full potential. His skill set suggest he could be one of the most productive 3rd basemen in baseball. Probably not to the level of a Miguel Cabrera but near the top of 3rd baseman production. Whether you think it's ridiculous or not, he is a legit hitter.

He doesn't have extensive power, and does not even project as a 20 HR hitter. He takes walks at a lesser rate than the league average. Being almost completely dependent on maintaining a higher than average BABIP does not mean you project to be a .900+ hitter.

kaldaniels
04-16-2012, 07:34 PM
He is also a guy who is 29 years old who hasn't had a full season in the Major Leagues yet. The odds are better that he is a solid guy than near the top of the 3rd base production in baseball.

Here I thought he was a young buck. 29? That is encouraging. :D

PuffyPig
04-17-2012, 05:08 AM
Probably not to the level of a Miguel Cabrera ........

Probably?

PuffyPig
04-17-2012, 05:14 AM
Beltran will not maintain an OPS of 1.013 but he certainly won't tale off too drastically from that production.



With a career OPS of .858, I would expect Beltran at the age of 35 to tail off into that range.

mth123
04-17-2012, 06:17 AM
Obviously the Cards have taken a downgrade from Pujols to Beltran, but anyone care to take a shot at who the best offensive threesome in the NL is? I'd say Beltran, Berkman and Holliday are easily the most imposing trio in the NL. I'm not down with Freese as an MVP, but I think he's a very good role player along with Jay, Craig, Furcal and Molina.

Sure they'll miss Albert, but they upgraded the defense overall by moving Berkman to 1B and putting Beltran in RF and the money allowed them to keep Furcal who is the best SS they've had there in a while. Health may be an issue, but it was even if they'd kept Pujols and passed on Beltran. I think they'll score plenty of runs. They will miss Carpenter (the pitcher) though and the fate of this team is intertwined with how his health situation plays out IMO.

Even if the Cards stay healthy and get Carp back, I think the Reds have the talent that can beat them.

westofyou
04-17-2012, 10:25 AM
Probably?

I want some of what he's drinking

757690
04-17-2012, 10:41 AM
I want some of what he's drinking

Budweiser? No you don't, but that's really a discussion for another thread. ;)

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 02:08 PM
He doesn't have extensive power, and does not even project as a 20 HR hitter. He takes walks at a lesser rate than the league average. Being almost completely dependent on maintaining a higher than average BABIP does not mean you project to be a .900+ hitter.


Those projections take into account the fact that he has never had a full season. I think 20 HR's is absolutely reasonable if he plays anywhere from 130-162 games. The way he takes the ball to the opposite field tells me he has the skill set to be an excellent hitter when fully healthy. Keep doubting as you may, don't be shocked if he is amongst the league leader in RBI's at the end of the season.

cincrazy
04-17-2012, 02:17 PM
Mike I don't know if I'm quite as high on Freese's ceiling as you are, but I do think he's a very, very, very good player, who is among the better 3B in the league. He'd be the second best hitter in the Reds lineup right now, and it's not even close IMO.

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 02:23 PM
Mike I don't know if I'm quite as high on Freese's ceiling as you are, but I do think he's a very, very, very good player, who is among the better 3B in the league. He'd be the second best hitter in the Reds lineup right now, and it's not even close IMO.

Some guys power develops later in their career. He finally has a solid base to work with after recovering from those ankle injuries in the car crash he had a couple of years ago. Now, I don't expect him to have an insane season like he did in last year's playoff where he set an RBI record. However 20 HR's almost seems like the low end of things for me. Maybe I was a bit over zealous in saying he could have a .900 OPS season. Still, it wouldn't shock me.

Yadi, to me, is another offensive factor. Just like his other brothers, it looks like he is turning into a legit hitter later in his career. I could see him maintaining that .300+ average and increasing in his power numbers. He came into camp something like 20 pounds lighter and looks great thus far.

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 02:38 PM
Let's make a friendly wager here. If Freese plays a full year and doesn't hit more than 20 HR's, I will wear a Reds tee shirt for an entire week. If he hits more than 20 HR's this year, people who are with me on this bet will have to wear a Cardinals tee shirt for an entire week. :)

Homer Bailey
04-17-2012, 03:10 PM
Let's make a friendly wager here. If Freese plays a full year and doesn't hit more than 20 HR's, I will wear a Reds tee shirt for an entire week. If he hits more than 20 HR's this year, people who are with me on this bet will have to wear a Cardinals tee shirt for an entire week. :)

I'll gladly do a sig bet for a week or 2 that Freese won't hit 20 HR's. The whole "If Freese plays a full year" makes the bet kind of silly. Of course his health history factors into his projections.

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 03:17 PM
I'll gladly do a sig bet for a week or 2 that Freese won't hit 20 HR's. The whole "If Freese plays a full year" makes the bet kind of silly. Of course his health history factors into his projections.

I have always qualified that if he remains healthy, he will be a top producing
3rd baseman in the league. Of course if he doesn't play more than 100 games, his production won't be there.

I'm up for your bet. What would you consider a full, healthy year for David Freese? 120,130 games?

Edd Roush
04-17-2012, 03:21 PM
Mike I don't know if I'm quite as high on Freese's ceiling as you are, but I do think he's a very, very, very good player, who is among the better 3B in the league. He'd be the second best hitter in the Reds lineup right now, and it's not even close IMO.

You think David Freese is clearly better than Jay Bruce? He has had a better OPS than Freese in 2010 & 2011 and did it over way more at bats.

For the record, I would take Brandon Phillips in my line-up over David Freese as well.

cincrazy
04-17-2012, 04:26 PM
You think David Freese is clearly better than Jay Bruce? He has had a better OPS than Freese in 2010 & 2011 and did it over way more at bats.

For the record, I would take Brandon Phillips in my line-up over David Freese as well.

How can you fairly compare the two when Freese has been banged up? When Freese is on the field, give me him over Bruce and Phillips. I love Bruce and Phillips, but do you think either one puts together the quality of at-bats that Freese does? I simply don't see it. Also, put Freese in GABP with that short porch in right and watch his numbers jump another level.

PuffyPig
04-17-2012, 04:38 PM
Let's make a friendly wager here. If Freese plays a full year and doesn't hit more than 20 HR's, I will wear a Reds tee shirt for an entire week. If he hits more than 20 HR's this year, people who are with me on this bet will have to wear a Cardinals tee shirt for an entire week. :)

If it includes my "Whiny Bird" T-shirt I am in.

Buy why have you gone from calling Feese an offensive stud who will OPS above .900 to simply hitting 20 HR's? He could OPS .750 with 20 HR's.

PuffyPig
04-17-2012, 04:43 PM
When Freese is on the field, give me him over Bruce and Phillips. I love Bruce and Phillips, but do you think either one puts together the quality of at-bats that Freese does? I simply don't see it.

OMG.....

Votto puts together quality AB's.

Frese enters the year with a lifetime OPS below .800.

I think posters are letting a hot streak skew their vision. Let him do it for half a season and maybe you will have something.

Roy Tucker
04-17-2012, 04:45 PM
I don't have any quantitative proof, but I've always had the notion that third basemen in general tend to be late bloomers.

Homer Bailey
04-17-2012, 05:00 PM
I have always qualified that if he remains healthy, he will be a top producing
3rd baseman in the league. Of course if he doesn't play more than 100 games, his production won't be there.

I'm up for your bet. What would you consider a full, healthy year for David Freese? 120,130 games?

I'll say minimum 120 games, he does not hit 20 home runs. If he doesn't reach 120 games, the bet is off.

Edd Roush
04-17-2012, 05:04 PM
How can you fairly compare the two when Freese has been banged up? When Freese is on the field, give me him over Bruce and Phillips. I love Bruce and Phillips, but do you think either one puts together the quality of at-bats that Freese does? I simply don't see it. Also, put Freese in GABP with that short porch in right and watch his numbers jump another level.

Most major league players are "banged up" pretty much every day. Furthermore, OPS is not a counting stat, you do not get a better OPS by playing more frequently. Phillips and Bruce's OPS show that when they are on the field, they are better hitters than Freese. The 33 PAs Freese has put together this year, do nothing to change my opinion of that. Furthermore, most of the experts who did predictions for 2012 have Bruce and Phillips projected at higher OPSs than Freese. I think Freese is a solid player, but you are underselling Bruce and Phillips if you think he is better.

cincrazy
04-17-2012, 05:15 PM
Most major league players are "banged up" pretty much every day. Furthermore, OPS is not a counting stat, you do not get a better OPS by playing more frequently. Phillips and Bruce's OPS show that when they are on the field, they are better hitters than Freese. The 33 PAs Freese has put together this year, do nothing to change my opinion of that. Furthermore, most of the experts who did predictions for 2012 have Bruce and Phillips projected at higher OPSs than Freese. I think Freese is a solid player, but you are underselling Bruce and Phillips if you think he is better.

I don't think that I'm underselling them one bit. I've seen Freese against good pitching. And I've seen Bruce and Phillips against good pitching. Ask Roy Halladay who he'd least like to face out of the three. I'd bet anything Freese would be the answer. I don't think Freese is Mike Schmidt. But he's a damn good player.

Homer Bailey
04-17-2012, 05:30 PM
I don't think that I'm underselling them one bit. I've seen Freese against good pitching. And I've seen Bruce and Phillips against good pitching. Ask Roy Halladay who he'd least like to face out of the three. I'd bet anything Freese would be the answer. I don't think Freese is Mike Schmidt. But he's a damn good player.

So your case is to completely ignore numbers, and to just go off what you've seen (I'm going to guess in minimal viewings of Freese), and you expect your claim that Freese would be the 2nd best hitter in the Reds lineup is going to stick? David Freese, who has never put up a better season that Jay Bruce, is better because you've seen a small sample of his at bats against good pitching?

And FYI, both Bruce and Phillips have had success off Roy Halladay.

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 05:37 PM
I'll say minimum 120 games, he does not hit 20 home runs. If he doesn't reach 120 games, the bet is off.


That seems fair. Freese must play in a minimum of 120 games for this bet to take into effect. If he hits more than 20 hrs, you must put something Cardinal related, positive, in your Avatar. If he doesn't, I must put something Reds related within my avatar that's possitive. Will a Corky Miller picture work? haha :)

Are you on board with this as well, PuffyPig?

Homer Bailey
04-17-2012, 05:40 PM
That seems fair. Freese must play in a minimum of 120 games for this bet to take into effect. If he hits more than 20 hrs, you must put something Cardinal related, positive, in your Avatar. If he doesn't, I must put something Reds related within my avatar that's possitive. Will a Corky Miller picture work? haha :)

Are you on board with this as well, PuffyPig?

Usually sig bets are decided by the winner, meaning if I win, I decide what you put on your sig or avatar for 2 weeks, and vis versa. Deal?

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 05:41 PM
Usually sig bets are decided by the winner, meaning if I win, I decide what you put on your sig or avatar for 2 weeks, and vis versa. Deal?

I'm on board with it! :beerme:

Edd Roush
04-17-2012, 05:42 PM
I don't think that I'm underselling them one bit. I've seen Freese against good pitching. And I've seen Bruce and Phillips against good pitching. Ask Roy Halladay who he'd least like to face out of the three. I'd bet anything Freese would be the answer. I don't think Freese is Mike Schmidt. But he's a damn good player.

Didn't Bruce just hit a game winning home run off Halladay last year? I could see one pitcher wanting to face another batter based upon small sample sizes of hitter vs. pitcher history or handedness, but I think most pitchers would rather face Freese than both Bruce or Phillips. Either way, I don't know why it matters. Bruce and Phillips have both done great things against good, mediocre and bad pitching. In general, Bruce and Phillips have both had better success than Freese so far. Going forward, you can go with your own projections, but most of the experts agree with me that Phillips and Bruce are better hitters than Freese.

cincrazy
04-17-2012, 05:58 PM
Look, I love Bruce and Phillips. I think they're both very talented players. But I think that we haven't seen the best of Freese yet. I think he's going to get better. Projections are useful, but are they 100% accurate? Of course not. I'm not interested in what a computer projects. This is simply my opinion. I could very well be wrong on it, I'm not stating it as absolute fact.

Edd Roush
04-17-2012, 06:01 PM
Look, I love Bruce and Phillips. I think they're both very talented players. But I think that we haven't seen the best of Freese yet. I think he's going to get better. Projections are useful, but are they 100% accurate? Of course not. I'm not interested in what a computer projects. This is simply my opinion. I could very well be wrong on it, I'm not stating it as absolute fact.

Bruce was the #1 overall prospect by BA at one point, has always had a better OPS than Freese and is 4 years younger than Freese, and you still think Freese is/will be a better hitter than Bruce? What do you have to back up your opinion?

MikeThierry
04-17-2012, 06:10 PM
Does OPS exclusively determine who a great hitter is? This is an extreme example but Ichiro's career OPS is .791 but would anyone make the argument that Jay Bruce is a better hitter in his prime than Ichiro? I know I would take Ichiro in his prime everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over Jay Bruce. Freese, thus far in their career, has been a better contact hitter than Bruce. His career average is .303 with an OBA of .358. Bruce has a career average of .255 and a OBA of .329. Bruce obviously has more power than Freese thus far so his OPS is going to be hire. It's also interesting to note that Freese has a higher OPS+ at 120 than Bruce's OPS+ of 112. Because that takes into account factors such as ballpark, I think an arguement can be made to where Freese has been a better hitter than Bruce in their respective careers.

RichRed
04-17-2012, 06:23 PM
Freese also has a likely unsustainable .370 career BABIP so far, and a very BA-driven OBP. If the hits stop falling, will he still be able to be productive? I think batting 5th in the Cards lineup is a pretty good spot for him because very often he will be batting with someone on base, meaning pitchers won't be able to pitch around him as much as they'd like, thus somewhat mitigating his aversion to walks.

I think he'll most likely be a solid but unspectacular offensive player. It's hard to project much more than that for a guy who's about to turn 29 and has accumulated only 700 career PAs.

Homer Bailey
04-17-2012, 06:33 PM
Does OPS exclusively determine who a great hitter is? This is an extreme example but Ichiro's career OPS is .791 but would anyone make the argument that Jay Bruce is a better hitter in his prime than Ichiro? I know I would take Ichiro in his prime everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over Jay Bruce. Freese, thus far in their career, has been a better contact hitter than Bruce. His career average is .303 with an OBA of .358. Bruce has a career average of .255 and a OBA of .329. Bruce obviously has more power than Freese thus far so his OPS is going to be hire. It's also interesting to note that Freese has a higher OPS+ at 120 than Bruce's OPS+ of 112. Because that takes into account factors such as ballpark, I think an arguement can be made to where Freese has been a better hitter than Bruce in their respective careers.

You're a bit all over the place here.

You ask if I'd rather take Ichiro in his prime, or Bruce in his prime, yet you cite Ichiro's career OPS. The question can't be answered yet, because I don't believe Bruce is in his prime yet. Ichiro's prime years were better than anything JB has put up to this point, so if the question was would you take Ichiro's best years over Bruce's best years so far, I would say yes. I would guess that Bruce's prime years are going to be superior (offensively) than Ichiro. A lot of Ichiro's value was driven by his defense.

Ichiro's career OPS is being dragged down by his older years, which don't have much of anything to do with what he's posted in his prime.

When you cite Bruce's career OPS numbers, they're waited in the opposite way. His first two years (age 21 and 22) were a struggle, but he's clearly improved from those years. Freese and Bruce had very similar 2011's (120 to 119 in OPS+), but Bruce clearly had a superior 2010. Also, Bruce is doing this in many more plate appearances, which is much harder to maintain that a strong OPS in a small amount of appearances in Freese's case because he can't stay on the field.

Additionally, Freese has been incredibly BABIP dependent, posting an unsustainable .370 BABIP in his career so far. ZIPS projects him to have a higher than normal BABIP (.342), and I can accept that, but I completely believe that his .370 BABIP to this point has a luck factor built in.

Lastly, comparing Bruce's career numbers to Freese's aren't really fair considering the difference in their ages. At Bruce's current age, Freese hadn't even been in the major leagues yet. This would lead one to believe that it would be Bruce whose numbers we would expect to improve much more than a guy that is about to turn 29.

Lastly, OPS and wOBA are the best measures for offensive value because they correlate strongest to runs scored. Breaking them into parts that support your position (BA and OBP) while discounting slugging doesn't really tell us much of anything. OPS paints a much stronger picture. Many will make the case that OPS puts too much weight in SLG, which is why many prefer wOBA. I don't disagree with that notion either.

jojo
04-17-2012, 07:19 PM
You're a bit all over the place here.

You ask if I'd rather take Ichiro in his prime, or Bruce in his prime, yet you cite Ichiro's career OPS. The question can't be answered yet, because I don't believe Bruce is in his prime yet. Ichiro's prime years were better than anything JB has put up to this point, so if the question was would you take Ichiro's best years over Bruce's best years so far, I would say yes. I would guess that Bruce's prime years are going to be superior (offensively) than Ichiro. A lot of Ichiro's value was driven by his defense.

Ichiro's career OPS is being dragged down by his older years, which don't have much of anything to do with what he's posted in his prime.

When you cite Bruce's career OPS numbers, they're waited in the opposite way. His first two years (age 21 and 22) were a struggle, but he's clearly improved from those years. Freese and Bruce had very similar 2011's (120 to 119 in OPS+), but Bruce clearly had a superior 2010. Also, Bruce is doing this in many more plate appearances, which is much harder to maintain that a strong OPS in a small amount of appearances in Freese's case because he can't stay on the field.

Additionally, Freese has been incredibly BABIP dependent, posting an unsustainable .370 BABIP in his career so far. ZIPS projects him to have a higher than normal BABIP (.342), and I can accept that, but I completely believe that his .370 BABIP to this point has a luck factor built in.

Lastly, comparing Bruce's career numbers to Freese's aren't really fair considering the difference in their ages. At Bruce's current age, Freese hadn't even been in the major leagues yet. This would lead one to believe that it would be Bruce whose numbers we would expect to improve much more than a guy that is about to turn 29.

Lastly, OPS and wOBA are the best measures for offensive value because they correlate strongest to runs scored. Breaking them into parts that support your position (BA and OBP) while discounting slugging doesn't really tell us much of anything. OPS paints a much stronger picture. Many will make the case that OPS puts too much weight in SLG, which is why many prefer wOBA. I don't disagree with that notion either.

Ichiro has yet to reach his prime.... :D

757690
04-17-2012, 07:37 PM
Not a big Freese fan, but I think he could hit 20 homers this season. It's really not a very high or meaningful standard. He could hit 20 Homers and still have a very disappointing season.

Brutus
04-17-2012, 08:08 PM
Does OPS exclusively determine who a great hitter is? This is an extreme example but Ichiro's career OPS is .791 but would anyone make the argument that Jay Bruce is a better hitter in his prime than Ichiro? I know I would take Ichiro in his prime everyday of the week and twice on Sunday over Jay Bruce. Freese, thus far in their career, has been a better contact hitter than Bruce. His career average is .303 with an OBA of .358. Bruce has a career average of .255 and a OBA of .329. Bruce obviously has more power than Freese thus far so his OPS is going to be hire. It's also interesting to note that Freese has a higher OPS+ at 120 than Bruce's OPS+ of 112. Because that takes into account factors such as ballpark, I think an arguement can be made to where Freese has been a better hitter than Bruce in their respective careers.

There is such a strong correlation from OPS to run scoring, I suppose it's fair to suggest it should be a strong determinate in who the best hitters are. Not to say there can't be other considerations (after all, it doesn't explain 100% of the variance so there are definitely other factors).

But as Homer said, I do think it's fair to point out that Ichiro in his American prime was between .780-.830 OPS. The last 2-3 years have most definitely dropped his career OPS down a bit. So was Ichiro's prime better than Bruce's non-prime? Absolutely. Will Bruce's prime be better than Ichiro's? Yet to be determined.

With regard to Freese/Bruce, you're right about the OPS+. Freese has been slightly better when adjusting for park factors. However, Freese is also four years older and further along in his development. When Bruce reaches 28 or 29, we'll see who's had the better career in total. Bruce's potential far exceeds anything Freese has because of his immense power potential. Whether Bruce does it consistently or not is still yet TBD.

powersackers
04-18-2012, 01:51 AM
Glad this thread got some traction. But hate that my Matt Carpenter reference was exactly right. 1 game 1 pestering.