PDA

View Full Version : Reds stats through 10 games



Kc61
04-16-2012, 11:16 AM
Reds start 4-6, 3 games back in Central, 3-3 home, 1-3 road, -9 run differential. Reds tied for third place. Madson on DL out for season, Masset on DL, Phillips hurt missed several games.

Offense - Reds with .589 OPS, 15th in NL, League average is .688. Reds with .319 SLG, 14th in NL, OBP is .270, 15th in league, BA is .205, 14th in league. Reds with 6 homers, 11-12th in NL, 29 BB is 10th most in NL, 76 strikeouts is 7-8th most in NL. Reds wOBA and wRC+ are both fifteenth in NL.

Individually, Reds have two hitters above a .720 OPS. Cozart (.969) and Votto (.915). Bruce is at .720, Ludwick at .660. All other position players are below .600 OPS. Rolen OPS is .353, Stubbs is .377. Votto getting little protection in lineup, has 10 walks, second in NL.

Pitching - On a brighter note, Reds with team 3.69 ERA, 8th in the NL, just about league average (3.62). Starter ERA is 4.25, 11th-12th in NL; bullpen ERA is 2.78, 7th best in NL. Reds with 76 Ks, 5th-6th in NL. Largely a result of Chapman, bullpen leads NL in Ks with 43. Team has allowed 36 walks, tied for 4th most in the NL.

Reds FIP is 3.94, 11th best in NL. xFIP is 3.91 tied for 10th-11th.

Starters have only one win, that's Cueto, who has 2.25 ERA in two outings. Arroyo with 2.63 ERA. Other starters all higher than 5 ERAs.

Which leads us to Chapman. In relief is 2-0, 8 innings pitched, 3 hits allowed, 15 Ks, 0 BBs, .38 WHIP, 0.00 ERA.

Fielding - MLB.com numbers. Reds lead the league in traditional fielding percentage with .993. Only three errors. 11 DPs trails only the Braves. DER is .709, tied for 8th-9th. UZR is .5, 8th best in NL.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2012, 11:20 AM
Worth noting the Reds are 15th in BABIP at .242. Cardinals are first at .346.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 11:36 AM
Worth noting the Reds are 15th in BABIP at .242. Cardinals are first at .346.

Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

traderumor
04-16-2012, 11:42 AM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.
I would say that the numbers reflect one team starting the season in an offensive surge, while the other one started the season with an offensive slump. Any conclusions about the quality of either offense at this stage would be premature.

BABIP keeps on getting referred to as luck, I think randomness is a better description.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2012, 11:42 AM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

Whoa there. Not suggesting anything, just pointing out the two numbers as examples of numbers that I don't think represent the true talent level of the two teams. Reds number will climb, Cards number will fall.

I would absolutely not say that is the only difference between the Cards and Reds this year, but it certainly is playing a part.

Plus Plus
04-16-2012, 11:43 AM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

Not to split hairs, but slugging and BABIP are related, so while the home run differential is very stark, the difference in slugging could largely be attributed to the ~100 points of BABIP.

757690
04-16-2012, 11:44 AM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

I wouldn't say luck, I d say that one team is on an offensive hot streak, and one a cold streak. For me, it's not luck when someone or a team has a high BABIP, it just means they are in a grove, and history tells us that at some point they will stop being in a grove and come back to the norm. I think the word luck is often misused when randomness is what is really being talked about.

*BaseClogger*
04-16-2012, 11:45 AM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

Well, last years Reds team had a .297 BABIP, while the Cards team BABIP was .305. What do you think is going to happen?

cincrazy
04-16-2012, 01:32 PM
Last year this early in the season, it looked like the Cards had the worst offense in the league. LaRussa even went off in his presser about how he knew his guys were going to hit, and to be honest, I laughed at him. And I'll be damned, they end up leading the league in runs scored. So I think it's wayyy too early in the season to draw any conclusions about either team up to this point.

With that aside, KC I really, really love this thread, it's one of the highlights of this board IMO, keep up the great work :)

traderumor
04-16-2012, 01:33 PM
Last year this early in the season, it looked like the Cards had the worst offense in the league. LaRussa even went off in his presser about how he knew his guys were going to hit, and to be honest, I laughed at him. And I'll be damned, they end up leading the league in runs scored. So I think it's wayyy too early in the season to draw any conclusions about either team up to this point.

With that aside, KC I really, really love this thread, it's one of the highlights of this board IMO, keep up the great work :)
Seconded :beerme:

Kc61
04-16-2012, 01:34 PM
Thank you guys, it's my pleasure to do these threads and to be on RedsZone.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2012, 01:37 PM
Last year this early in the season, it looked like the Cards had the worst offense in the league. LaRussa even went off in his presser about how he knew his guys were going to hit, and to be honest, I laughed at him. And I'll be damned, they end up leading the league in runs scored. So I think it's wayyy too early in the season to draw any conclusions about either team up to this point.

With that aside, KC I really, really love this thread, it's one of the highlights of this board IMO, keep up the great work :)

Agreed. I logged in this morning ready for the first one of these threads. Much appreciated KC.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 02:22 PM
The offensive stats should normalize. The Cards play in a stadium where homeruns are hard to come by so the Cards won't keep up the insane homerun pace they are on. The Reds have the potential to be a good offensive team so the early woes won't continue. That said, the Cards did have the best offense in the NL last year and many of the core players are back (excluding Albert of course). The Cards will have a potent lineup again this year.

LegallyMinded
04-16-2012, 02:31 PM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

The Cards also have a pretty unsustainable HR/FB rate, though. It's above 17% right now; by comparison, the best mark for any team last year was 14.3%.

jojo
04-16-2012, 02:35 PM
Couldn't we have skipped this installment and just linked to a youtube video of frolicking puppies instead?

Ghosts of 1990
04-16-2012, 02:38 PM
Things will get better. This team has the guns to be very good over 10 game stretches as well.

I just hope that they're not "dead on arrival" as one poster put it because we have no clean up hitter.

RedsManRick
04-16-2012, 02:48 PM
KC, I'll try to supplement these posts with the table below. Feel free to use it if you'd like. I just build it in notepad and then put the code tags around it ( [ code ] & [ / code ] -- without the spaces)

Data Sources
Baseball Reference: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2012.shtml
Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0



As of: W/L R/G Rank RA/G Rank | AVG/OBP/SLG OPS wOBA BABIP | ERA FIP xFIP BABIP
G10 4-6 3.10 15th 4.00 T-7th | 205/270/319 .589 .253 .242 | 3.69 3.94 3.91 .284
G20
G30
G40


And regarding the BABIP, I would take it a step further to add clarity. BABIP is driven, to a large degree, by skill. And we have a very good handle on how much skill teams have. However, BABIP is not a measure of skill; it is a measure of performance, which happens to be driven by skill. Over the course of a plate appearance, a game, a series, etc., every player and team experiences fluctuations of performance, centered around his skill.

Is it "bad luck" that the Reds have a poor BABIP. Not the way most people use the term. The outcomes of the first 10 games were not random. They were driven by a very complex interaction of players' skills played out in a limited set of performances in specific circumstances. However, we know is that over the course of a season, all of those interactions tend to produce results that are very similar to what we knew in advance about the team's collective ability. We know that when the season is over, the Reds will have a team BABIP between .280 and .320 -- and most likely between .290 and .310. At the team level, even less than at the player level, there just isn't much difference between the skills that specifically drive BABIP.

So, no, it's not "bad luck" and it's not random. But it's not predictive either. The team will have good stretches of games and bad stretches of games. But aside from injuries, there's very little to be learned from the team's performance over these first 10 games. In predicting the outcome of the next 152 games, we use our best estimate of the team's collective skill. And everything that happened in the last 10 games comprises a relatively tiny piece of that best estimate.

Looking back, we care all about performance. But looking forward, we care about skill -- because skill is what drives future performance, not past performance. And the team's skill hasn't really changed much in the last 2 weeks.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 03:21 PM
Rick, feel free to post the chart whenever you'd like. Your computer skills undoubtedly exceed mine, and your analyses are always good, so I look forward to your additions to these threads.

I also appreciate your attempt to explain BABIP, which many people use as a synonym for luck.

And there's no suggestion in my post that the Reds will continue to have a sub-.600 OPS, of course they won't. I try to keep these posts as neutral as possible. In other threads, I tend not to be as neutral . . . .

mth123
04-16-2012, 08:36 PM
Thanks KC.:thumbup:

nate
04-16-2012, 09:34 PM
Is your suggestion that the difference between the Reds and Cards' offense this year is luck?

If so, I would take very serious issue with that.

Among other things, the Cards have 15 homers to the Reds' 6. The Cards have a .504 slugging percentage to the Reds .319.

Just a comment, HR are not "in play" and as such, are not included in BABIP.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 10:07 PM
Just a comment, HR are not "in play" and as such, are not included in BABIP.

Yes, I'm aware. The point was to show that the Cards are hitting much better than the Reds right now, as demonstrated by the home run and SLG numbers.

BABIP only includes balls hit in play.

Thanks.