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Kc61
04-16-2012, 01:58 PM
The Reds need a good lefty platoon bat. They also need a reliever to bolster the pen when Chapman becomes a starter.

The Reds also have an extra starting pitcher once Chapman joins the rotation.

Isn't there an obvious trade here?

Trade a starter -- not Cueto or Latos -- for a solid lefty hitter, platoon type, and a good reliever.

Prospects could be thrown in either way.

Reds make room for Chapman in the rotation. They add the lefty bat they need. They bolster the pen, which would be losing Chapman to the rotation.

Francis remains at AAA to start if there is an emergency.

Benihana
04-16-2012, 02:02 PM
The Reds need a good lefty platoon bat. They also need a reliever to bolster the pen when Chapman becomes a starter.

The Reds also have an extra starting pitcher once Chapman joins the rotation.

Isn't there an obvious trade here?

Trade a starter -- not Cueto or Latos -- for a solid lefty hitter, platoon type, and a good reliever.

Prospects could be thrown in either way.

Reds make room for Chapman in the rotation. They add the lefty bat they need. They bolster the pen, which would be losing Chapman to the rotation.

Francis remains at AAA to start if there is an emergency.

Homer Bailey for Seth Smith and Grant Balfour.

While I'd be content with this, I'd rather add Gregorius and target Michael Choice, who could play LF and bat cleanup for us between Votto and Bruce for the next 5 years.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-16-2012, 02:23 PM
This should have been addressed in the offseason. Teams don't usually make April trades.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 02:25 PM
This should have been addressed in the offseason. Teams don't usually make April trades.

Doesn't have to be immediate, but I thought it was a good enough idea for a message board.

Will M
04-16-2012, 04:17 PM
Homer Bailey for Seth Smith and Grant Balfour.

While I'd be content with this, I'd rather add Gregorius and target Michael Choice, who could play LF and bat cleanup for us between Votto and Bruce for the next 5 years.

if the Reds could do this (and afford it) then this would be a great deal for the team. Why would the A's do this?

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 04:50 PM
Good idea for a topic. Might drum up some ideas. Not that Reds management would ever do anything. They have failed to address cleanup forever now.

Edd Roush
04-16-2012, 05:06 PM
The problem with trading Bailey now is that I feel like we are selling low. I don't want to start another debate on the legitimacy of peripherals, but if you find peripherals important as I do, Homer can pitch as well as he did last year and with a normalized amount of "luck" he will put up numbers many on this board would be happy with from a #4. I do think Chapman could end up being a better starter in 2012 than Bailey, but I just don't want to sell low on any assets if we don't need to, and I really see a trade of Bailey right now as a sell low.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 05:09 PM
Good idea for a topic. Might drum up some ideas. Not that Reds management would ever do anything. They have failed to address cleanup forever now.

I didn't even suggest a cleanup hitter, assuming that would require too much talent, too much money, not feasible, etc.

My suggestion is far more modest. Get a platoon lefty hitter and a good relief pitcher. I'm not thinking big power bats, nor I am thinking Mariano Rivera.

Just solid players to give the Reds some lefty/righty balance in the offense and to free up Chapman for the rotation.

The absence of a cleanup hitter, presumably a righty to hit between Votto and Bruce, is still another issue. And it's a big issue because it impacts Votto so much, without a cleanup man Joey gets nothing to hit. I wasn't even trying to address that particular problem here.

I guess Bruce could be the cleanup man, but it still leaves you with a two-person middle of the order and it puts the lefties bunched together. Right now, it's the best solution.

Kc61
04-16-2012, 05:13 PM
The problem with trading Bailey now is that I feel like we are selling low. I don't want to start another debate on the legitimacy of peripherals, but if you find peripherals important as I do, Homer can pitch as well as he did last year and with a normalized amount of "luck" he will put up numbers many on this board would be happy with from a #4. I do think Chapman could end up being a better starter in 2012 than Bailey, but I just don't want to sell low on any assets if we don't need to, and I really see a trade of Bailey right now as a sell low.

Doesn't have to be Bailey. Could be Leake, maybe Reds would be selling high? Maybe a bit later this year Arroyo would be tradeable again, he is doing well so far, his contract clock is ticking.

Or it could be Bailey later this year as well, he is healthy and throwing well, maybe someone would have interest.

It could be any of the three, this thread wasn't about trading Homer necessarily.

REDREAD
04-16-2012, 05:47 PM
I still think the offense will be just fine.

I think I would rather keep pitching depth than trade it at this point.

I would not be opposed to picking up a LH OF bat if we could get one for prospects, but I really don't want to lose anything of value from the ML roster.

Maybe Seth Smith will be available at the deadline for prospects. If not him, I'm guessing some bat will. Historically, bats acquired at the deadline (espeically pending FAs) do not cost much in terms of prospects.

I think Ludwick is going to help the offense. He's off to a slow start, but yesterday was encouraging. Not time to panic yet.
Rolen is also off to a slow start, but let's remember he was out almost all last year and they still were 2nd in the NL in runs scored.
Cozart is a big upgrade to what they had at SS last year too.
This team will score runs. The only big loss from last year's offense was Ramon H.

MikeThierry
04-16-2012, 06:22 PM
This should have been addressed in the offseason. Teams don't usually make April trades.

I also feel that teams will be more reluctant to make trades now considering that there is a second wild card team. It's almost getting to the point where it's like the NHL where teams aren't going to be trading big names because every team feels like they are pretty much in it.

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 06:24 PM
I disagree. There are some obvious rebuilding teams out there no matter what.

VR
04-16-2012, 06:30 PM
With the blowup in Boston, I was thinking the time was right to acquire Youkilis.

RedsManRick
04-16-2012, 06:39 PM
With the blowup in Boston, I was thinking the time was right to acquire Youkilis.

I really like Youk, but if the idea is to replace a 3B that's broken down and unreliable, I'm not sure acquiring an expensive 33-year-old with nagging injuries is the way to go -- especially with Frazier waiting for a roster spot.

I do like the Balfour and Seth Smith idea; obviously the guy traded has to be Bailey -- nobody outside of maybe the Red Sox would want Arroyo.

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 06:42 PM
I'll start.

Reds trade Homer Bailey for KC's Alex Gordon.

KC's starting rotation currently sports a rotation of Bruce Chen (1.64 e.r.a.), Hochevar (7.84), J. Sanchez (8.22), Mendoza (5.59) and Danny Duffy (1 game, 6 IP, 4 walks, 1 hit, 8 K's).

Gordon is struggling out of the gate batting .118 in 34 at-bats with 1 HR, 5 walks, 11 K's. If you believe he will return to his final line from last season - .303 average, .879 OPS, 17 SB's 45 doubles, 23 HR's, 87 rbi, 101 runs....or better.......then maybe you make this trade. Gordon just turned 28 in February. Might need a change of scenery, but I would think that putting up last year's stat line on a bad team means he is probably coming into his own. Only problem is he is a lefty, which probably bothers some people at cleanup. He'd probably rake at GABP. And I believe he would be the threat that we currently don't have.

Probably take Bailey and ??????

Just starting the discussion. KC is far from contending. They need more than one good player (Gordon). Bailey and Stubbs? Stick Heisey in CF for us? I'd do it. KC gets 2 former #1's for their former #1. Maybe we have to throw in a prospect too.

Bailey needs a change of scenery. Stubbs has worn out his welcome. Both go home closer to Texas. LOL.

Benihana
04-16-2012, 06:43 PM
if the Reds could do this (and afford it) then this would be a great deal for the team. Why would the A's do this?

Reds might have to kick in a prospect- how about Neftali Soto?

Smith was made expendable as soon as they signed Cespedes- something they likely weren't banking on when they acquired Smith.

Most media outlets are speculating that it's only a matter of time before Balfour is dealt- the non-contending A's don't have much use for a veteran closer, and Beane loves to trade his closers.

Could be a good buy-low opportunity for Oakland with Homer. Would be a good park for him to pitch in.

CySeymour
04-16-2012, 06:46 PM
I'll start.

Reds trade Homer Bailey for KC's Alex Gordon.


I just don't see KC going for that. Gordon has been a player the franchise had waited to produce and finally did last year. Not sure I see where that trade helps them at all.

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 06:50 PM
I just don't see KC going for that. Gordon has been a player the franchise had waited to produce and finally did last year. Not sure I see where that trade helps them at all.

......and I'm talking about overpaying a bit.

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 06:52 PM
2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
LF Gordon
RF Bruce
CF Heisey
3B Rolen
C Mesoranigan

Lineup looks better already. :D

Benihana
04-16-2012, 06:58 PM
I advocated a Gordon trade this time last year. Too bad it never came to fruition- that ship has now sailed. KC is about as likely to move him as we are with Jay Bruce.

Vottomatic
04-16-2012, 07:19 PM
I advocated a Gordon trade this time last year. Too bad it never came to fruition- that ship has now sailed. KC is about as likely to move him as we are with Jay Bruce.

Why not? Because the Royals are just tearing it up in their division where they're supposed to finish behind Detroit and Cleveland? Hmmmm.

RedsManRick
04-16-2012, 07:22 PM
I'll start.

Reds trade Homer Bailey for KC's Alex Gordon.

KC's starting rotation currently sports a rotation of Bruce Chen (1.64 e.r.a.), Hochevar (7.84), J. Sanchez (8.22), Mendoza (5.59) and Danny Duffy (1 game, 6 IP, 4 walks, 1 hit, 8 K's).

Gordon is struggling out of the gate batting .118 in 34 at-bats with 1 HR, 5 walks, 11 K's. If you believe he will return to his final line from last season - .303 average, .879 OPS, 17 SB's 45 doubles, 23 HR's, 87 rbi, 101 runs....or better.......then maybe you make this trade. Gordon just turned 28 in February. Might need a change of scenery, but I would think that putting up last year's stat line on a bad team means he is probably coming into his own. Only problem is he is a lefty, which probably bothers some people at cleanup. He'd probably rake at GABP. And I believe he would be the threat that we currently don't have.


A .358 BABIP in 2011 makes me think he won't be repeating those numbers. He could be the type that produces a higher than average BABIP, but to sustain a BABIP that high you need to be either a speed demon like Michael Bourn or Austin Jackson or a world-class line drive hitter who always makes hard contact like Votto, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzales.

Given his pedigree, I wouldn't discount the possibility that he's in that class of hitter, but I wouldn't pay full value on the assumption that he is. If he's more normal in terms of BABIP, he's probably in line for something more like .265/.340/.440. That's not bad, but I'm not sure it's a big upgrade over what we've got. There's still an argument to be made for a deal like that, but I think both sides would say 'no'.

AtomicDumpling
04-16-2012, 07:31 PM
The Reds could get left-handed Bobby Abreu without giving up any players in return if they are willing to pay a good chunk of his remaining salary. Abreu is past his prime but he is still a productive bat, especially against right-handed pitching.

Benihana
04-16-2012, 07:39 PM
The Reds could get left-handed Bobby Abreu without giving up any players in return if they are willing to pay a good chunk of his remaining salary. Abreu is past his prime but he is still a productive bat, especially against right-handed pitching.

No- he can't play the field. Reds would have been better off signing Johnny Damon.

I think Smith is the right target but as another poster pointed out, the correct time will likely be in June or July.

Ghosts of 1990
04-16-2012, 07:48 PM
I would hang onto Bailey; use him in LeCure's role... trade Stubbs for the haul you're talking about.

Teams would be more willing to do it and Stubbs isn't going to produce much WAR here this year. He hasn't made adjustments, you can just tell. But a team out there will take him on and see some type of gold mine that isn't there. He's a mirage player. I'd do stubbs. He's also perceived to be a tremendous defensive CF, and we all know he really isn't.

I would probably do Stubbs for Smith, Balfour, and Prospect if they didn't want Bailey; which I assume they wouldn't.

hebroncougar
04-16-2012, 10:09 PM
Why not? Because the Royals are just tearing it up in their division where they're supposed to finish behind Detroit and Cleveland? Hmmmm.

No, because Gordon is cost controlled for the next 4 years, and he's a blossoming bat. That's something small market teams like the Royals hold on to. And there is no WAY they give him up for Bailey.

cinreds21
04-16-2012, 10:55 PM
If you're look at teams that "need" or "could need" a center fielder, look at the White Sox, Cleveland, and maybe Tampa. I don't know if anything could be done by the deadline, but definitely in the off-season a trade could match up between of those three teams listed.

Dan
04-16-2012, 11:50 PM
I've been intrigued by Denard Span for awhile now. He could platoon or take over in cf. Wonder how much the twins like Bailey.

Dan
04-16-2012, 11:51 PM
For a cleanup hitter, you could go another way...Chapman for Giancarlo Stanton.

dougdirt
04-17-2012, 12:32 AM
For a cleanup hitter, you could go another way...Chapman for Giancarlo Stanton.

If I were the Marlins, there is no way I would even consider that trade. Stanton is a future MVP contender and it isn't that far in the future we are talking. Chapman is an elite reliever who may be a very good starter.

Tom Servo
04-17-2012, 12:42 AM
I think people are severely overestimating Homer's current trade value.

cinreds21
04-17-2012, 02:12 AM
Giancarlo Stanton, for the 1,000 time, is not on the market or even remotely close to being traded. The Marlins won't even give trade away his baseball card.

cinreds21
04-17-2012, 02:16 AM
Ben Revere may be out of favor in Minnesota. I'd be OK with acquiring him or Span.

KronoRed
04-17-2012, 02:17 AM
Giancarlo Stanton, for the 1,000 time, is not on the market or even remotely close to being traded. The Marlins won't even give trade away his baseball card.

Well maybe the old ones that say Mike Stanton on them.

klw
04-17-2012, 09:42 AM
Rolen for Youkalis?

REDREAD
04-17-2012, 10:20 AM
I'll start.

Reds trade Homer Bailey for KC's Alex Gordon.
.

Change Bailey into prospects and KC might be interested.
I don't see why KC would want Bailey. Bailey is about to enter arbitration, and as you said, they are going nowhere any time soon.

I have a hard time seeing a market for Homer for what the Reds want in return (a big bat).. Any team that wants to win now and feels Homer would help their BOR isn't going to give up a big bat to get him, I'm afraid (in other words, they aren't likely to give up someone better than Ludwick).. There's actually a shortage of quality OF around baseball now, IMO.

Kc61
04-17-2012, 10:58 AM
I have a hard time seeing a market for Homer for what the Reds want in return (a big bat).. Any team that wants to win now and feels Homer would help their BOR isn't going to give up a big bat to get him, I'm afraid (in other words, they aren't likely to give up someone better than Ludwick).. There's actually a shortage of quality OF around baseball now, IMO.

The premise here is not a trade for a big bat. For a true cleanup hitter, I think we're talking a lot more than Bailey in return.

But a left handed Ludwick type and a solid relief pitcher for, say, Bailey and a prospect? I don't see why that is so remote.

Again, the idea would be to achieve three things. First, open up a rotation spot for Chapman. Next, acquire a lefty platoon hitter to help the Reds against RHP. Also, to fill Chapman's bullpen spot with another good reliever.

It still makes some sense to me. One good point made in the thread is that it is always questionable to trade pitching depth, I see that and I think it's a very fair response.

Benihana
04-17-2012, 11:21 AM
I don't think we need to trade for a reliever. I think JJ Hoover could fill that role now.

I'd like to trade Bailey and some prospects who are now blocked -perhaps guys like Soto and Gregorius- for a big cleanup bat in LF.

Between Michael Choice and Michael Taylor, the A's have two of them. Taylor would obviously cost a lot less than Choice, as he carries a lot more risk.

Seth Smith is the lefty platoon guy that was described in the original post.

Between these three guys, the A's seem like far and away the best trading partner.

_Sir_Charles_
04-17-2012, 11:46 AM
nm

puca
04-17-2012, 01:42 PM
Not disputing that the Reds could use another lefty bat - especially for the sake of the bench, but I heard/read somewhere that the Reds had the worst record in MLB last year against LH starting pitchers. A RH dominated lineup like the Reds should mash lefties - especially when Votto and Bruce aren't completely nuetralized by them - but for whatever reason this one doesn't.

REDREAD
04-17-2012, 01:53 PM
The premise here is not a trade for a big bat. For a true cleanup hitter, I think we're talking a lot more than Bailey in return.

But a left handed Ludwick type and a solid relief pitcher for, say, Bailey and a prospect? I don't see why that is so remote.

Again, the idea would be to achieve three things. First, open up a rotation spot for Chapman. Next, acquire a lefty platoon hitter to help the Reds against RHP. Also, to fill Chapman's bullpen spot with another good reliever.

It still makes some sense to me. One good point made in the thread is that it is always questionable to trade pitching depth, I see that and I think it's a very fair response.

It makes sense.. I don't mean to be a downer on your idea, but I think the offense will come around.
Homer is an enigma, but if we trade him, suddenly the staff becomes very thin.
Ideally, Jeff Francis spends the entire year in AAA. I can live with Chapman pitching 2 inning stints out of the pen all year too, if the rest of the rotation is pitching so well that there's no room for him.
This is the last year of Arroyo's deal, right? (I can't remember).
If so, that opens a spot for Chapman next year.

Kc61
04-17-2012, 02:33 PM
This is the last year of Arroyo's deal, right? (I can't remember).
If so, that opens a spot for Chapman next year.

Bronson's deal is through 2013.

WildcatFan
04-17-2012, 03:29 PM
I don't think we need to trade for a reliever. I think JJ Hoover could fill that role now.

Yeah, where in the world is he, anyway? He shoulda been sleeping on Frazier's shoulder on that plane.

Kc61
04-17-2012, 03:59 PM
Not disputing that the Reds could use another lefty bat - especially for the sake of the bench, but I heard/read somewhere that the Reds had the worst record in MLB last year against LH starting pitchers. A RH dominated lineup like the Reds should mash lefties - especially when Votto and Bruce aren't completely nuetralized by them - but for whatever reason this one doesn't.

Reds had the highest team OPS against lefty pitching in the NL last year. Fourth best in all of MLB.

puca
04-17-2012, 05:42 PM
Reds had the highest team OPS against lefty pitching in the NL last year. Fourth best in all of MLB.

Their team OPS agains LHP was .794 which may indeed have been 4th in the NL last year. Interestingly though (at least I find it interesting) their team OPS in games that were started by a LH pitcher last year was only .738. Their OPS in games that were started by a RH pitcher was .732.

Now since this includes all ABs in a game started by a LH/RH pitcher it may be the case is that the Reds hit the LH starter okay but fall flat as soon as the opposing manager switched pitchers.

I'm trying to find the source that backs up the 'worst record against LH starters' statement, but with those numbers I can believe it.

puca
04-17-2012, 05:50 PM
Found it (sort of).

Last year the Reds were 17-22 in games against a LH starter. It was the 2nd worst record in the NL, 5th worse in MLB. Only the Padres (19-30), the Mariners (13-28), the Royals (16-26) and the Orioles (20-27) had worse records.

dougdirt
04-17-2012, 05:55 PM
Found it (sort of).

Last year the Reds were 17-22 in games against a LH starter. It was the 2nd worst record in the NL, 5th worse in MLB. Only the Padres (19-30), the Mariners (13-28), the Royals (16-26) and the Orioles (20-27) had worse records.

Of course that means that the Reds weren't really good against RHP either. So I am not sure this really tells us much.

Kc61
04-17-2012, 06:48 PM
Found it (sort of).

Last year the Reds were 17-22 in games against a LH starter. It was the 2nd worst record in the NL, 5th worse in MLB. Only the Padres (19-30), the Mariners (13-28), the Royals (16-26) and the Orioles (20-27) had worse records.

Fascinating. Actually, the 17-22 is the Reds W-L record against lefties, not just lefty starters as I read the charts. It includes relievers.

Reds were 62-61 against righty pitchers, including starters and relievers.

IMO this just shows how W-L records do not tell the full story.

The Reds OPS against LHP was by far the best in the NL last year. Reds were .794 against lefties last season, Cards were second at .768.

Reds really have hit lefties well with their predominantly righty lineup (and with lefty Votto destroying lefty pitching). It just doesn't show up in the W-L column if broken down by lefty/righty opposing pitchers of decision.

Very interesting.

In a trade, though, I still would want a lefty bat.

puca
04-17-2012, 08:08 PM
Fascinating. Actually, the 17-22 is the Reds W-L record against lefties, not just lefty starters as I read the charts. It includes relievers.

Reds were 62-61 against righty pitchers, including starters and relievers.

IMO this just shows how W-L records do not tell the full story.

The Reds OPS against LHP was by far the best in the NL last year. Reds were .794 against lefties last season, Cards were second at .768.

Reds really have hit lefties well with their predominantly righty lineup (and with lefty Votto destroying lefty pitching). It just doesn't show up in the W-L column if broken down by lefty/righty opposing pitchers of decision.

Very interesting.

In a trade, though, I still would want a lefty bat.

You're probably right about that just being a breakdown of the decisions between the pitcher of record and not the starting pitcher. Not very interesting in that case.

They certainly could use another good hitter to cluster with Votto/Bruce. With a manager that likes to split lefties it makes sense to me that it shoud be a RH hitter, but I defintely understand your counterpoint. If they can hit without severe splits I suppose it doesn't matter much.

puca
04-17-2012, 08:12 PM
Of course that means that the Reds weren't really good against RHP either. So I am not sure this really tells us much.

They were 62-61 against RHP, so given the sample size it's probably not very telling one way or the other. While I was still thinking that this was a breakdown of records against the handedness of the starting pitcher it surprised me greatly as the Reds seem to be built to beat up on lefties. Once Kc pointed out this was probably a breakdown of the handedness of the pitcher of record it is much less interesting.