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flyer85
04-18-2012, 11:47 PM
now just now but maybe for the future. Latos stunk again tonight but that isn't necessarily a major issue as he has started slowly the past 2 years. It may well be that the paradigm has changed with the end of the steroid era and the hardest thing to acquire is not good young pitching but is now good young hitting. I really liked the deal that Seattle did for Montero in the off season.

Jocketty traded away the jewels to acquire something the Reds may not have needed the most, especially with Chapman in the wings. The Reds have huge holes at several spots and no heir apparent in the minors, no players to trade to acquire them and little money to sign anyone.

Those contracts awarded votto and Phillips still leave me scratching my head. There is no way they end well.

And for God's sake play Mesoraco every day and move him into the middle of the order, this isn't that hard.

kaldaniels
04-18-2012, 11:52 PM
I disagree with the premise that young pitching is/will be easier to get than hitting.

Tom Servo
04-18-2012, 11:56 PM
I disagree with the premise that young pitching is/will be easier to get than hitting.
Same. I do think the Reds have neglected offense, but I don't agree that it has become anymore difficult to obtain.

The Operator
04-18-2012, 11:56 PM
Alonso is hitting .237 with a .592 OPS for San Diego.

It's still early, obviously every day it gets more and more infuriating - but it is still early.

WildcatFan
04-18-2012, 11:57 PM
now just now but maybe for the future. Latos stunk again tonight but that isn't necessarily a major issue as he has started slowly the past 2 years. It may well be that the paradigm has changed with the end of the steroid era and the hardest thing to acquire is not good young pitching but is now good young hitting. I really liked the deal that Seattle did for Montero in the off season.

Jocketty traded away the jewels to acquire something the Reds may not have needed the most, especially with Chapman in the wings. The Reds have huge holes at several spots and no heir apparent in the minors, no players to trade to acquire them and little money to sign anyone.

Those contracts awarded votto and Phillips still leave me scratching my head. There is no way they end well.

And for God's sake play Mesoraco every day and move him into the middle of the order, this isn't that hard.

Are we still ignoring the whole "It's April" thing?

Yes, there have been some real problems in the first 2.5 weeks, but the Latos trade and especially the Votto and Phillips contracts have NOTHING to do with them.

Yes, Mes had a good night, but he has 65 major league at bats. Middle of the lineup may be premature.

Yes, the offense is in a rut, but there are enough great hitters to pull out of it soon.

MikeS21
04-18-2012, 11:57 PM
Interesting ... a few weeks ago, Walt Jocketty was a genius and the Reds were loaded and poised to win the NL Central because St. Louis and Milwaukee were both going to have down years.

Shouldn't we see how the law of averages play out before crying that the sky is falling?

SirFelixCat
04-19-2012, 12:02 AM
Having 6 starters (2 are LF) below or at the Mendoza line ain't helping.

Cedric
04-19-2012, 12:04 AM
I still say the Brandon Phillips extension is the weirdest thing I have ever seen a Reds GM do.

I'm not quite sure how it makes sense on any level.

kaldaniels
04-19-2012, 12:08 AM
I still say the Brandon Phillips extension is the weirdest thing I have ever seen a Reds GM do.

I'm not quite sure how it makes sense on any level.

It was surprising, especially the day after a Griffeyish hamstring incident. Not complaining, but yes, it was odd.

reds44
04-19-2012, 12:08 AM
The guy the Reds traded away are blocked from playing up here anyways.

Now if you think they should have used those resources to acquire something else, that's fair.

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2012, 12:21 AM
Reds have SO many problems right now. I mean, take your pick.

Only ones free from blame are Votto, Cozart, and Chapman. Cueto has been decent.

To be honest they're playing so rotten they're threatening to ruin a season 12 games in. As far as I'm concerned I'm tired of Bruce, Bailey, Dusty Baker, Stubbs, Arroyo, Leake. Not really a believer in Latos but whatever. Keep him around and let him be Volquez's blond doppleganger to justify the trade just like they tried to do when they dealt Hamilton.

Walt has messed up badly here. Gut the team, build around Votto and Phillips because that's the corner you painted yourself into. That's the only chance we have to be competitive in a few years. I'm not convinced that you can win with guys like Stubbs and Bruce in the everyday lineup taking routine 1 for 20's. You just can't win like that. Look at Texas. Look around at successful teams. They just don't have guys that streaky in their lineup.

Huge problems. I can't believe what I'm seeing here. Twelve games in, and I am already sick of Reds baseball. Unbelievable.

Brutus
04-19-2012, 12:24 AM
I'm not necessarily a total optimist when it comes to this season, but goodness gracious I have a feeling there is going to be some downright hilarious reading material in July when looking back at April.

Let that sink in for a second. We're still three months from when teams usually throw in the towel and people are talking about managers being fired, general managers not getting the job done, players needing to go, etc.

For crying out loud we're 7% of the way into the season. It's barely even far enough in to have any kind of decent sample size let alone be making definitive judgments.

When the season began, I thought this team would be a good pitching staff (even without Madson) and about an average offense with above-average defense. If the offensive players were even hitting their career averages right now, the Reds would be in first place or a game or two back and there would be absolutely no one worrying in the slightest. And that's without the starting pitchers really pitching to their ability.

The point here is this won't keep up. While the offense might have some holes, it's not going to be prolifically bad. The conclusions are reaching an all-time high (or low) for ridiculousness right now. Like I said... let's revisit this in July. I tend to think this will be a whole different picture.

WVRedsFan
04-19-2012, 12:31 AM
I disagree with the premise that young pitching is/will be easier to get than hitting.
Two of us.

The Operator
04-19-2012, 12:34 AM
Only ones free from blame are Votto, Cozart, and Chapman. Cueto has been decent. I'd say Cueto has been more than decent. 1.89 ERA and two 7 IP outings already. Yes his last start got off to a rocky beginning but he ended up with a great night.


To be honest they're playing so rotten they're threatening to ruin a season 12 games in. As far as I'm concerned I'm tired of Bruce, Bailey, Dusty Baker, Stubbs, Arroyo, Leake. While I disagree on all of the players you mention sans Arroyo, why lump Bruce in there? After the third or fourth game of the season, you were saying he had unlimited potential and was going to "put the league on notice this year". Has a week's worth of games made him go from superstar to DFA fodder?


Not really a believer in Latos but whatever. Keep him around and let him be Volquez's blond doppleganger to justify the trade just like they tried to do when they dealt Hamilton. Latos is frustrating the crap out of me, but he's had a terrible April every single year of his career so I'm not giving up yet. And he's nothing like Volquez, Latos can actually find the strike zone (check out his career walk numbers) and has the sustained success to prove it.


Walt has messed up badly here. Gut the teamTwelve. Games. Patience, my friend. Patience.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 12:36 AM
The point here is this won't keep up. While the offense might have some holes, it's not going to be prolifically bad. The conclusions are reaching an all-time high (or low) for ridiculousness right now. Like I said... let's revisit this in July. I tend to think this will be a whole different picture.

Another post criticizing the posters. Great, thanks.

Some of these hitters are underachieving and will snap back. I think Rolen will get better, he missed a lot of time last year and is getting his timing back. He won't be Hall of Fame Rolen, but he'll do better. Phillips' injury is too bad, it's obviously impairing him. The good players will improve over the season.

Some of the other hitters are just not good and they won't be good in July, in September, on Thanksgiving, during the Holiday Season, in 2013, or probably ever.

And if people think the team just stinks, they should be free to say so without being criticized.

757690
04-19-2012, 12:37 AM
1972 Reds:
4-7 start - 95 wins - WS appearance.

1974 Reds
5-6 start - 98 wins

1975 Reds
5-6 start - 108 wins - World Champions

2011 Cardinals
4-7 start - 90 wins - World Champions

2011 Diamondbacks
5-8 start - 94 wins - Division winner

2011 Tigers
3-7 start - 95 wins - Division winner

2011 Rays
1-8 start - 91 wins - Wild Card

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2012, 12:41 AM
While I disagree on all of the players you mention sans Arroyo, why lump Bruce in there? After the third or fourth game of the season, you were saying he had unlimited potential and was going to "put the league on notice this year". Has a week's worth of games made him go from superstar to DFA fodder?


Not DFA....

He's just the same old Bruce. And being simply good drops to less than good with these horrible stretches thrown in there and mindless at bats. He's just going to disappoint again this year. You know what gives me such a frustrating perspective on Bruce? Watch Hamilton, Longoria, Matt Kemp, heck even compare Votto to Bruce. They never are desperate, helpless, completely rendered useless. They always have an approach and are dangerous.

Bruce is at times not much more of a threat than you or I up there. I know scouts have to be saying that his stock has dropped. I know our scouts have to be saying "what is it with this guy".

With Stubbs, I liked his makeup and was excited about him but I thought Bruce was going to be in the upper echelon of players in all of baseball but he's never going to change or mature. Same horrible approach, same deer in the headlights guy for weeks at a time.

Brutus
04-19-2012, 12:55 AM
Another post criticizing the posters. Great, thanks.

Some of these hitters are underachieving and will snap back. I think Rolen will get better, he missed a lot of time last year and is getting his timing back. He won't be Hall of Fame Rolen, but he'll do better. Phillips' injury is too bad, it's obviously impairing him. The good players will improve over the season.

Some of the other hitters are just not good and they won't be good in July, in September, on Thanksgiving, during the Holiday Season, in 2013, or probably ever.

And if people think the team just stinks, they should be free to say so without being criticized.

So you're saying people can have an opinion but others can't point out how way premature it is to be making conclusions?

By the way, I hope it wasn't lost on you that your response is doing the same thing you are upset for me doing...

dougdirt
04-19-2012, 12:56 AM
With Stubbs, I liked his makeup and was excited about him but I thought Bruce was going to be in the upper echelon of players in all of baseball but he's never going to change or mature. Same horrible approach, same deer in the headlights guy for weeks at a time.

This season isn't even weeks long yet.

Brutus
04-19-2012, 12:59 AM
1972 Reds:
4-7 start - 95 wins - WS appearance.

1974 Reds
5-6 start - 98 wins

1975 Reds
5-6 start - 108 wins - World Champions

2011 Cardinals
4-7 start - 90 wins - World Champions

2011 Diamondbacks
5-8 start - 94 wins - Division winner

2011 Tigers
3-7 start - 95 wins - Division winner

2011 Rays
1-8 start - 91 wins - Wild Card

The 1999 Reds started off 4-8 and was 14-18 at one point. They won 96 games.

The Moneyball A's in 2002 fell to 20-26 at one point before winning 103 games.

There's really a lot of perspective still needed about this. It's mid-April.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 01:11 AM
The 1999 Reds started off 4-8 and was 14-18 at one point. They won 96 games.

The Moneyball A's in 2002 fell to 20-26 at one point before winning 103 games.

There's really a lot of perspective still needed about this. It's mid-April.

Ok, let's have some perspective. I agree, it's mid-April. Calendar doesn't lie. I assume you've watched the games and given the team some thought.

You see a 90 win team here? No maybes, no ifs, just an answer. Do you see a 90 win Reds team this year.

My answer is definitely no.

Yours?

Brutus
04-19-2012, 01:15 AM
Ok, let's have some perspective. I assume you've watched the games and given the team some thought.

You see a 90 win team here? No maybes, no ifs, just an answer. You see a 90 win Reds team this year.

My answer is definitely no.

Yours?

Based on the first two weeks of the year, of course not. These first two weeks have been abysmal.

Based on players only doing what they have done most of their careers, yes I do, actually. I can't fathom why anyone would think these two weeks would be representative of a team when literally there are players 200-400 points away from their career OPS.

I trust that players being literally hundreds of percentage points away from their career OPS averages is a fluke sample and should not be expected to continue over what they've established over hundreds and in some case thousands of plate appearances.

Johnny Footstool
04-19-2012, 01:31 AM
Walt has messed up badly here. Gut the team...

:laugh:

Do you really, really believe this?

WVRedsFan
04-19-2012, 01:35 AM
The 1999 Reds started off 4-8 and was 14-18 at one point. They won 96 games.

The Moneyball A's in 2002 fell to 20-26 at one point before winning 103 games.

There's really a lot of perspective still needed about this. It's mid-April.I'm late on this, but this is what I thought. The Reds are floundering, but it's not time to panic. I've said this over and over, but this early season schedule was brutal. After 6 at home we headed to hot Washington and followed that with hot St. Louis. The pitching looked like the 1962 Dodgers and our hitters looked like the 1962 Mets, probably because of the pitching. Mat Latos has not pitched well (which is his custom), no one has hit (because the opposition's pitching was that good), and all that. Whatever idiot decided that the Reds needed to play six at home and follow it with 10 games on the road was just brutal. No respect for the oldest team in baseball. It will all work out. Only four games over so far against tough teams (with a record of 25-12) who are red hot )Washington has 10 wins and the Cardinals 9--who in the heck decided we needed to play St. Louis twice in the first two weeks?).

The Cards were stacked against the Reds, but why did we think that MLBwould do us any favors?

Kc61
04-19-2012, 01:40 AM
Based on the first two weeks of the year, of course not. These first two weeks have been abysmal.

Based on players only doing what they have done most of their careers, yes I do, actually. I can't fathom why anyone would think these two weeks would be representative of a team when literally there are players 200-400 points away from their career OPS.

I trust that players being literally hundreds of percentage points away from their career OPS averages is a fluke sample and should not be expected to continue over what they've established over hundreds and in some case thousands of plate appearances.

Well, not exactly a clean yes or no, but thanks for revealing your thinking.

You might, however, "fathom" that some of us, after following the Reds moves all winter, have also watched the Reds very carefully for 12 games now and concluded that the team has serious weaknesses and will not win 90 games.

That view is not based on a "fluke sample" but on a review of the team which many of us know very well. And see as seriously flawed in significant respects.

I see a team whose pitching and defense are good, but not good enough to overcome a one-dimensional, impatient, imbalanced offense. I think it's legitimate to think that team won't make the playoffs without some meaningful changes.

gilpdawg
04-19-2012, 02:25 AM
The guy I'm really worried about is Stubbs. According to Inside Edge, before this St. Louis series his "well-hit" average was .000, so he hadn't hit a ball hard yet. That's way beyond just BABIP random chance. Even people who slump hit a ball hard occasionally. I think he's messed up either mechanically or mentally.

And if someone knows where to find that stat, I'd like to look at some other numbers, but I can't find any site that has it. I only heard this on the Baseball Today podcast the other day. It doesn't appear to be on Fangraphs or B/R.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-19-2012, 03:50 AM
now just now but maybe for the future. Latos stunk again tonight but that isn't necessarily a major issue as he has started slowly the past 2 years. It may well be that the paradigm has changed with the end of the steroid era and the hardest thing to acquire is not good young pitching but is now good young hitting. I really liked the deal that Seattle did for Montero in the off season.

Jocketty traded away the jewels to acquire something the Reds may not have needed the most, especially with Chapman in the wings. The Reds have huge holes at several spots and no heir apparent in the minors, no players to trade to acquire them and little money to sign anyone.

Those contracts awarded votto and Phillips still leave me scratching my head. There is no way they end well.

And for God's sake play Mesoraco every day and move him into the middle of the order, this isn't that hard.

You are the one, a couple of years ago, who didn't want Matt Holliday because he was a "Coors Field mirage."

How's that mirage lookin' now?

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-19-2012, 03:55 AM
I'm not necessarily a total optimist when it comes to this season, but goodness gracious I have a feeling there is going to be some downright hilarious reading material in July when looking back at April.

Let that sink in for a second. We're still three months from when teams usually throw in the towel and people are talking about managers being fired, general managers not getting the job done, players needing to go, etc.

For crying out loud we're 7% of the way into the season. It's barely even far enough in to have any kind of decent sample size let alone be making definitive judgments.

When the season began, I thought this team would be a good pitching staff (even without Madson) and about an average offense with above-average defense. If the offensive players were even hitting their career averages right now, the Reds would be in first place or a game or two back and there would be absolutely no one worrying in the slightest. And that's without the starting pitchers really pitching to their ability.

The point here is this won't keep up. While the offense might have some holes, it's not going to be prolifically bad. The conclusions are reaching an all-time high (or low) for ridiculousness right now. Like I said... let's revisit this in July. I tend to think this will be a whole different picture.

More whistling past the graveyard ...

Asteroid??? What asteroid?

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-19-2012, 03:57 AM
1972 Reds:
4-7 start - 95 wins - WS appearance.

1974 Reds
5-6 start - 98 wins

1975 Reds
5-6 start - 108 wins - World Champions

2011 Cardinals
4-7 start - 90 wins - World Champions

2011 Diamondbacks
5-8 start - 94 wins - Division winner

2011 Tigers
3-7 start - 95 wins - Division winner

2011 Rays
1-8 start - 91 wins - Wild Card

You had to go back 30 years to find a mere seven examples of teams rebounding from this sort of abysmal start? How about looking at the teams that started 4-9 and then proceeded to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

I'd venture to guess that the list would be somewhat longer that seven teams in three decades you're using to justify this hapless start. But whatever lets you sleep at night, have at it.

Until tomorrow, when the Reds score 1 more run ...

reds44
04-19-2012, 04:29 AM
You had to go back 30 years to find a mere seven examples of teams rebounding from this sort of abysmal start? How about looking at the teams that started 4-9 and then proceeded to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

I'd venture to guess that the list would be somewhat longer that seven teams in three decades you're using to justify this hapless start. But whatever lets you sleep at night, have at it.

Until tomorrow, when the Reds score 1 more run ...
Are you just ignoring how BAD the Reds offense is right now?

Look at some of these OPS':
Bruce .655
Heisey .554
Hanigan .486
Phillips .471
Stubbs .389
Rolen .369

If we take the worst case scenario and say Stubbs is just a mess, Rolen is washed up, Hanigan is on the wrong side of 30, Phillips got paid and stopped playing, and Heisey can't do anything but PH not ONE of those guys will have an OPS anywhere NEAR that bad when the season ends. You can add Willie Harris and his .216 OPS and Valdez and his .474 OPS in there too.

Add on top of that the fact Leake won't have a 6 ERA when the season ends and Latos won't have a whatever his ERA is either. You can't judge anything off this.

Arroyo, Chapman, Cueto, Ondrusek, and Chapman are the only guys performing at/above their level right now.

That's 5 guys on a 25 man roster. FIVE. There's literally TWENTY guys on the roster who will finish with better stats than they have now. Even Joey will finish with a better OPS than he has now (.876).

Is anybody sitting here and saying Cozart is better than Barry Larkin or that Chapman is literally never going to give up a run this year and strikeout 17 guys per 9 inning? No, because it's obvious that won't happen.

Look, if the Reds keep playing like this somebody is going to take a hit and it'll be Dusty. But there's literally 0% this keeps up.

Brutus
04-19-2012, 05:32 AM
Well, not exactly a clean yes or no, but thanks for revealing your thinking.

You might, however, "fathom" that some of us, after following the Reds moves all winter, have also watched the Reds very carefully for 12 games now and concluded that the team has serious weaknesses and will not win 90 games.

That view is not based on a "fluke sample" but on a review of the team which many of us know very well. And see as seriously flawed in significant respects.

I see a team whose pitching and defense are good, but not good enough to overcome a one-dimensional, impatient, imbalanced offense. I think it's legitimate to think that team won't make the playoffs without some meaningful changes.

The view is based on an offense that is being judged off of fluke samples.

Simple yes or no, do you think there's any chance in the world that two-thirds of the Reds' batting order would finish well below a .600 OPS -- some in the 300s and 400s?

Because the people judging this offense are doing so based on a sample that is that out of whack right now. The Reds' OPS last season was .734. Right now it's .575.

Do you really think that's representative of anything?

GAC
04-19-2012, 05:49 AM
There is no doubt this team has started out the first two weeks playing abysmal. But look at who they have played - three teams (Marlins, Nationals, Cards (two series) - who aren't slouches, have impressive pitching staffs (the Nat's staff really impresses me), and who are going to be strong contenders, IMO, in their respective divisions.

We just need to play some sub-par (bad) teams to help us get it together and right ourselves. We got the Cubs this weekend. ;)

All this stuff about the Reds are in serious trouble just 12 games into the season, people going into meltdown mode and jumping off bridges, has me simply shaking my head in utter amazement.

The Operator
04-19-2012, 06:02 AM
That view is not based on a "fluke sample"
We are twelve games in, which is 7.42% of the season. When guys are performing several hundred points off of their career norms in OPS, and we're 7% into the season, there's no way to describe it other than a fluke sample.

If they keep it up, sure. But right now there's just no reason to think it's really this bad. It's going to get better, even if they all have years worse than they have in the past. That's how bad things are right now. Even if everyone under performs, things will still improve from where they are right now.

Remember, slumps and losing streaks are always the most painful at the beginning of the season. The Reds went through multiple stretches like this in 2010, just at different points in the season so it wasn't as glaring.

mth123
04-19-2012, 07:58 AM
I think the team will be alright. I do think the team has issues in CF and at 3B and thought so when last season ended so its not about 12 games. I agree with KC about the lack of lefty bats. Stats show that players who hit well against RHP generally fall into 2 categories- Star caliber players, left handed hitters. There are very few run of the mill RH bats who have a lot of success against RHP. Most teams have a mixture of Star caliber players to go with a more balanced supporting cast that even things out a bit against RHP and LHP. In the Reds case, they have two (maybe only one really) star caliber offensive players who both happen to be the only LH bats on the team. When a RHP comes along, there just isn't enough supporting cast against the majority of pitchers that the team will face.

As for Walt, he did well IMO. I would have liked to have seen the Reds add a LH bat or two in the offseason and dealing the only LH threat on the cusp of contributing when he played a position that is manned by a big question mark and only netted the team another "ho-hum," in the mix RH reliever made no sense. But the moves for Latos and Marshall made perfect sense IMO and signing Votto was wonderful. I'm less enamored with the Phillips signing, but not outraged like some seem to be.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 08:04 AM
The view is based on an offense that is being judged off of fluke samples.

Simple yes or no, do you think there's any chance in the world that two-thirds of the Reds' batting order would finish well below a .600 OPS -- some in the 300s and 400s?

Because the people judging this offense are doing so based on a sample that is that out of whack right now. The Reds' OPS last season was .734. Right now it's .575.

Do you really think that's representative of anything?

I see the Reds OPS improving well above the current levels. But I do not see an offense that would support a 90 win season.

edabbs44
04-19-2012, 08:13 AM
I cannot believe that Omar Infante has a shot at 40 HRs this year.

edabbs44
04-19-2012, 08:34 AM
On this day last year, the Bosox were 5-11. They ended up with 90 wins.

Colorado was 12-5. They ended up with 93 losses.

The first few weeks of the season have been disappointing, no doubt. But I'm not sure that the team is done just yet.

cumberlandreds
04-19-2012, 09:08 AM
1972 Reds:
4-7 start - 95 wins - WS appearance.

1974 Reds
5-6 start - 98 wins

1975 Reds
5-6 start - 108 wins - World Champions

2011 Cardinals
4-7 start - 90 wins - World Champions

2011 Diamondbacks
5-8 start - 94 wins - Division winner

2011 Tigers
3-7 start - 95 wins - Division winner

2011 Rays
1-8 start - 91 wins - Wild Card

I don't think this Reds team is nearly as good as any of those teams. It's early and plenty of time to rebound. But if you get too far behind it's really difficult to catch back up to the leader. You have jump a lot of teams then. The Reds are five behind already. Drop another five behind in the next two weeks and then they are in a lot of trouble.

Raisor
04-19-2012, 09:24 AM
Ok everyone, you need to remove your shoe laces and guitar strings and take a step back away from the ledge.

wolfboy
04-19-2012, 09:42 AM
Ok everyone, you need to remove your shoe laces and guitar strings and take a step back away from the ledge.

You fail to see the increased sense of urgency. The world's going to end in December. It's now or never for our Reds.

Raisor
04-19-2012, 09:43 AM
All they way back on April 12th, 2012 Jay Bruce had an OPS of 1.041. , now jump into your time machine and set the date into The Far Future of April 19, 2012. Which includes a whole week worth of games! A whole bloody week of gamesan why that's almost 1/28 of the season! And his OPS has dropped to a staggering .644 OPS! Why, at this rate, his OPS will be in the neighborhood of negative 7.156 OPS by season's end! -7.156! That might be a record! Ya'll should be excited about seeing history made! Go rEDs!

Caveat Emperor
04-19-2012, 09:45 AM
Ok everyone, you need to remove your shoe laces and guitar strings and take a step back away from the ledge.

Screw you, I'm jumping. Don't try to stop me!!

Roy Tucker
04-19-2012, 09:50 AM
I don't want to pile on the guy, but Stubbs looks about as screwed up as a hitter as I've ever seen. Swings at pitches he shouldn't, takes strikes, and when he gets a hittable pitch, he plain old misses it. And seems to come to bat at the worst possible time. I think he's just lost his way and doesn't know what to do.

I feel for the guy. Baker needs to use his vaunted player skills on him to get his confidence back up and Jacoby needs to work intensely on his mechanics and talk to him about his approach at the plate and what his AB plan is. Concetrate on 1-2 things and get those right and then go from there. The Reds need him.

flyer85
04-19-2012, 10:13 AM
Are we still ignoring the whole "It's April" thing?

Nope. Rolen hasn't produced in 2 years, Stubbs never has, it's been 2+ years for Ludwick. Hanigan is definition of fungible and the real problem is that other than Mesoraco taking Hanigans ABs there isn't much behind the other three.

Are they slumping, yes they are but Walt pushed all in on Latos and likely fixed the lesser of the Reds problems. IMO having Chapman in the rotation for Latos wouldn't cause the Reds pitching to look worse. IMO Walt traded his assets for the wrong pieces.

The issue is not the bad starts, it that is absolutely nothing behind any of the question marks. It they don't turn it around there is no Plan B. In comparison look at the Cards, if Berkman doesn't stay healthy Carpenter doesn't look like a bad alternative and they will be getting Craig back soon which gives them 4 solid OFs.

flyer85
04-19-2012, 10:18 AM
I don't want to pile on the guy, but Stubbs looks about as screwed up as a hitter as I've ever seen. Swings at pitches he shouldn't, takes strikes, and when he gets a hittable pitch, he plain old misses it. And seems to come to bat at the worst possible time. I think he's just lost his way and doesn't know what to do.
Stubbs have never been anything but a marginal hitter. That would be Ok because of his defense if they got offense from 3B and LF.

dougdirt
04-19-2012, 10:25 AM
Nope. Rolen hasn't produced in 2 years, Stubbs never has, it's been 2+ years for Ludwick. Hanigan is definition of fungible and the real problem is that other than Mesoraco taking Hanigans ABs there isn't much behind the other three.

Are they slumping, yes they are but Walt pushed all in on Latos and likely fixed the lesser of the Reds problems. IMO having Chapman in the rotation for Latos wouldn't cause the Reds pitching to look worse. IMO Walt traded his assets for the wrong pieces.

The issue is not the bad starts, it that is absolutely nothing behind any of the question marks. It they don't turn it around there is no Plan B. In comparison look at the Cards, if Berkman doesn't stay healthy Carpenter doesn't look like a bad alternative and they will be getting Craig back soon which gives them 4 solid OFs.

To be fair..... no one had any reason to expect Chapman to truly outperform Mat Latos this season as a starter, and to be honest, I would still take Latos. His track record is proven, and while he has been pretty bad early this season, it is three starts. I will take the totality of his career and say that he is going to turn it around.

flyer85
04-19-2012, 10:34 AM
To be fair..... no one had any reason to expect Chapman to truly outperform Mat Latos this season as a starter, and to be honest, I would still take Latos. His track record is proven, and while he has been pretty bad early this season, it is three starts. I will take the totality of his career and say that he is going to turn it around.
no issue with Latos, he has had ERAs of 5 and 6+ the last 2 Aprils. Even though he pitched in Petco he had solid splits away from home. The issue is for this year and into the future the Reds have question marks at 3b, LF and CF and not any help in the upper minors and doubtfully have much payroll flexibility to address the situation by taking on salary. If it was me I would be attempting to pry someone like Travis Snider away from the Blue Jays (the Jays have Rasmus , Bautista and 2 good OF prospects in Gose and Marisnick) and stick him in LF.

durl
04-19-2012, 10:53 AM
Personally, I believe Stubbs should be traded to the AL where he can be a designated fielder.

("Designated Fielder??" you ask? Selig's working on it...trust me.)

nate
04-19-2012, 10:59 AM
I cannot believe that Omar Infante has a shot at 40 HRs this year.

I'm smelling what you're cooking. Well played, high five!

I'm glad I picked him up for my fantasy team. Trophies, here I come!

Kc61
04-19-2012, 11:05 AM
Stubbs have never been anything but a marginal hitter. That would be Ok because of his defense if they got offense from 3B and LF.

He's a marginal hitter, but the frustration is that Stubbs could be so much more. Very few players have Drew's combination of power and speed.

What bothers me is that Stubbs doesn't hit for power any more, at least not for much of 2011 and the beginnig of 2012.

Many long ball hitters strike out. You live with it because hitting 30 homers produces a lot and compensates for the missed opportunities caused by Ks.

In Drew's case, not only have the strikeouts increased but the power has decreased.

Is it because he is too tentative up there, too afraid of missing the pitch? Is it mechanical? Is it too much instruction, or bad instruction? Is he afraid of taking bad pitches, concerned that he will get called out? I don't know.

The unfortunate thing with Stubbs is the promise that isn't developing. I still think starting from "scratch" with a minor league stint might help him. Or maybe a new hitting coach to work with him. But it's a shame his offensive numbers have plummeted, really too bad.

Homer Bailey
04-19-2012, 11:11 AM
You had to go back 30 years to find a mere seven examples of teams rebounding from this sort of abysmal start? How about looking at the teams that started 4-9 and then proceeded to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

I'd venture to guess that the list would be somewhat longer that seven teams in three decades you're using to justify this hapless start. But whatever lets you sleep at night, have at it.

Until tomorrow, when the Reds score 1 more run ...

Ummmm pretty sure he cited FOUR examples from last year.

And you have to go allllllll the way back to this date two entire years ago. Reds were 5-8, 4 games behind the world beaters known as the St. Louis Cardinals. Reds won 91 games and ran away with the division.

_Sir_Charles_
04-19-2012, 11:29 AM
Wow. Some of the posts in here. Step back from the ledge my friends. :O)

I still say they win the division and head to the series. I still say Bailey and Bruce have career years. And I still say the Cards will plummet to the bottom half of the division. Yes, they have some good hitters, but not THIS good. Things will even out in the end.

_Sir_Charles_
04-19-2012, 11:34 AM
Ok, let's have some perspective. I agree, it's mid-April. Calendar doesn't lie. I assume you've watched the games and given the team some thought.

You see a 90 win team here? No maybes, no ifs, just an answer. Do you see a 90 win Reds team this year.

My answer is definitely no.

Yours?

My answer is no. I see a 100 win team. Slumps will happen. They'll happen again this year too. But I also see a VERY talented team across the board.

OldXOhio
04-19-2012, 11:41 AM
You can add Willie Harris and his .216 OPS

I just thought this was worth repeating.

Two
Six
Teen

Wow

_Sir_Charles_
04-19-2012, 11:53 AM
I just thought this was worth repeating.

Two
Six
Teen

Wow

I'm not a fan of Harris, but he's got less than 20 ab's if I recall correctly. I really don't think OPS tells us anything about him at this point. I still didn't like him on the club over Frazier though.

OldXOhio
04-19-2012, 12:05 PM
I'm not a Harris fan either, but that was just an attempt at some levity, which by the way is much needed around here.

Roy Tucker
04-19-2012, 12:13 PM
We're fans. Fan comes fron fanatic. It's in our nature to be on the ledge, go nuts, be irrational, panic over the 25th slot on the roster, and knee-jerk react to every micro-trend. That's why we sit up in the stands and not on the field or in the front office. It's the nature of the game.

We just need to be aware of when we're being irrational (I hope that works, I ask my wife to be that way and it usually doesn't go over well).

:)

757690
04-19-2012, 12:16 PM
You had to go back 30 years to find a mere seven examples of teams rebounding from this sort of abysmal start? How about looking at the teams that started 4-9 and then proceeded to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

I'd venture to guess that the list would be somewhat longer that seven teams in three decades you're using to justify this hapless start. But whatever lets you sleep at night, have at it.

Until tomorrow, when the Reds score 1 more run ...

I pointed out that half of last years playoff teams started off badly. I imagine that in the 30 years there are probably 50-100 examples of teams that started off poorly, then went on to win 90 games or make the playoffs.

oneupper
04-19-2012, 12:17 PM
Ok, let's have some perspective. I agree, it's mid-April. Calendar doesn't lie. I assume you've watched the games and given the team some thought.

You see a 90 win team here? No maybes, no ifs, just an answer. Do you see a 90 win Reds team this year.

My answer is definitely no.

Yours?

Personally, no, and never did. But I think that's what has the frustration level so high on the board. It's hard to come to grips with the reality that the team isn't very good and doesn't have a quick or easy fix.

Last year we heard "they'll be fine", when the team started faltering in May. It continued until they were definitely out of it. It gets old fast.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-19-2012, 12:22 PM
There is no doubt this team has started out the first two weeks playing abysmal. But look at who they have played - three teams (Marlins, Nationals, Cards (two series) - who aren't slouches, have impressive pitching staffs (the Nat's staff really impresses me), and who are going to be strong contenders, IMO, in their respective divisions.

We just need to play some sub-par (bad) teams to help us get it together and right ourselves. We got the Cubs this weekend. ;)

All this stuff about the Reds are in serious trouble just 12 games into the season, people going into meltdown mode and jumping off bridges, has me simply shaking my head in utter amazement.

The "it's early" crowd has me shaking my head in equal amazement. Sure, it's only 12 games, but when does it cease being early? We heard the same thing last year in May and June about the woes that were supposed to magically cure themselves just because the schedule passed some arbitrary date on the calendar. In the meantime, the Reds have dug themselves an immediate hole that will require a four-game winning streak just to get to .500.

It's always "early" until one day when it all of a sudden isn't anymore.

dougdirt
04-19-2012, 12:34 PM
The "it's early" crowd has me shaking my head in equal amazement. Sure, it's only 12 games, but when does it cease being early? We heard the same thing last year in May and June about the woes that were supposed to magically cure themselves just because the schedule passed some arbitrary date on the calendar. In the meantime, the Reds have dug themselves an immediate hole that will require a four-game winning streak just to get to .500.

It's always "early" until one day when it all of a sudden isn't anymore.

It will cease being early at some point in May. If the Reds as a team still have an OPS around .600, be worried.

MikeS21
04-19-2012, 12:35 PM
The "it's early" crowd has me shaking my head in equal amazement. Sure, it's only 12 games, but when does it cease being early? We heard the same thing last year in May and June about the woes that were supposed to magically cure themselves just because the schedule passed some arbitrary date on the calendar. In the meantime, the Reds have dug themselves an immediate hole that will require a four-game winning streak just to get to .500.

It's always "early" until one day when it all of a sudden isn't anymore.
The "it's early" crowd realizes that the basic laws of average will catch up and team (and individual) OBS, WAR, BA, or whatever statistical god we posters worship, will rise back up towards career norms (Yes even Drew Stubbs will trend upward towards greener pastures).

If the numbers do not trend upwards, as someone pointed out, we would be seeing HISTORY in the making, and the Apocalypse is upon us.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 12:53 PM
The "it's early" crowd realizes that the basic laws of average will catch up and team (and individual) OBS, WAR, BA, or whatever statistical god we posters worship, will rise back up towards career norms (Yes even Drew Stubbs will trend upward towards greener pastures).

If the numbers do not trend upwards, as someone pointed out, we would be seeing HISTORY in the making, and the Apocalypse is upon us.

This is a nice concept, but let's dig deeper. Beyond Votto, Bruce, and Phillips (if healthy), which RECENT career norms are you looking for.

Rolen is older and has a long injury history. Ludwick had a bad 2011. So did Stubbs. Heisey has never been a regular. Hanigan had a sub-par 2011. The bench is weak - are you aspiring to Willie Harris' career norms?

I really like Cozart and Mes (looked great last night) but they have no career norms. They are rookies. Nor does Frazier.

This "return to career norm" platitude doesn't wash IMO. Who are we talking about aside from the three good hitters on the ballclub? Don't the Reds need "career years" rather than norms from some players to have an acceptable offense? I think so. Or very strong emergence from rookies, that might help too.

Obviously the hitting will be better than now, but to win a championship you need good (if not excellent) offensive performance. I see three guys likely to provide that. Others may, but it's hard to expect it.

dougdirt
04-19-2012, 12:57 PM
This is a nice concept, but let's dig deeper. Beyond Votto, Bruce, and Phillips (if healthy), which RECENT career norms are you looking for.

Rolen is older and has a long injury history. Ludwick had a bad 2011. So did Stubbs. Heisey has never been a regular. Hanigan had a sub-par 2011. The bench is weak - are you aspiring to Willie Harris' career norms?

I really like Cozart and Mes (looked great last night) but they have no career norms. They are rookies. Nor does Frazier.

Thing is, looking at RECENT history for these position players, aside from the big three, I don't see any very good career norms to root for.

But this "return to career norm" platitude doesn't wash IMO. Who are we talking about aside from the three good hitters on the ballclub.

Obviously the hitting will be better than now, but to win a championship you need good (if not excellent) offensive performance. I see three guys likely to provide that. Others can, but it's hard to expect it.

While your premise may be close to right (I would say that Hanigan is a guy we need to include with the three.... he doesn't hit for power, but he gets on base a bunch), it is not like the other guys are .300-.500 OPS bats. They are better than they have been, even if they aren't going to be all that good, they aren't AA lifers either (which is about how they have performed to this point).

Kc61
04-19-2012, 01:01 PM
While your premise may be close to right (I would say that Hanigan is a guy we need to include with the three.... he doesn't hit for power, but he gets on base a bunch), it is not like the other guys are .300-.500 OPS bats. They are better than they have been, even if they aren't going to be all that good, they aren't AA lifers either (which is about how they have performed to this point).

Absolutely. I never suggested the offense would remain this bad, in all my (too many) recent posts. The numbers right now are ridiculously low and I would never suggest they will remain so.

However, I look at the mix of players and see an offense that is lacking. And doesn't compensate with lefty/righty balance, patient hitting, or smart offensive strategy.

The Reds pitching and defense are very good for the Central IMO and should provide them with a .500 type team. But the offense needs to get better.

I agree by the way that Hanigan could be ok, and Mes could turn catcher into a good offensive position. But I recall (didn't check) that Ryan had problems against RHP last season so I'm cautious in my expectation for him. But he and Mes could help things, yes.

Raisor
04-19-2012, 01:18 PM
I feel pretty confortable in saying 12 games is "early"

traderumor
04-19-2012, 01:21 PM
I don't want to pile on the guy, but Stubbs looks about as screwed up as a hitter as I've ever seen. Swings at pitches he shouldn't, takes strikes, and when he gets a hittable pitch, he plain old misses it. And seems to come to bat at the worst possible time. I think he's just lost his way and doesn't know what to do.

I feel for the guy. Baker needs to use his vaunted player skills on him to get his confidence back up and Jacoby needs to work intensely on his mechanics and talk to him about his approach at the plate and what his AB plan is. Concetrate on 1-2 things and get those right and then go from there. The Reds need him.

I've only seen about half of the games, but I've also seen Votto looking just as confused and clueless right now in way too many ABs. I know Stubbs has a longer funk stretching back to last season, but there has been a lot of clueless looks on faces.

The slump is a mystery, whether it be individual or team. It is a mystery probably at the level of figuring out women--don't try to figure it out, just accept it, endure it at its low points, enjoy the high points, but never, ever claim you have figured it out.

reds44
04-19-2012, 01:23 PM
It's not like this team is 4-8 and you look at the data and everybody is playing up to how you expected.

Am I supposed to believe Hanigan, Phillips, Rolen, and Stubbs are going to finish with OPS' anywhere near the 400s? Bruce is going to hit .191 all year? Latos is going to finish the year with an 8.22 ERA?

Again, you can take the absolute WORST case scenario for every one of those guys and none of them will finish the year with numbers anywhere near that bad.

corkedbat
04-19-2012, 01:24 PM
I feel pretty confortable in saying 12 games is "early"

Seems like every year the reds go through a two or three week stretch where they play nearly unwatchable baseball. Hopefully they are just getting it out of their systems early and it doesn't cost them dearly later in close division/wildcard races.

_Sir_Charles_
04-19-2012, 01:36 PM
I'm not a Harris fan either, but that was just an attempt at some levity, which by the way is much needed around here.

:thumbup:

smith288
04-19-2012, 01:57 PM
I'm not necessarily a total optimist when it comes to this season, but goodness gracious I have a feeling there is going to be some downright hilarious reading material in July when looking back at April.

Let that sink in for a second. We're still three months from when teams usually throw in the towel and people are talking about managers being fired, general managers not getting the job done, players needing to go, etc.

For crying out loud we're 7% of the way into the season. It's barely even far enough in to have any kind of decent sample size let alone be making definitive judgments.

When the season began, I thought this team would be a good pitching staff (even without Madson) and about an average offense with above-average defense. If the offensive players were even hitting their career averages right now, the Reds would be in first place or a game or two back and there would be absolutely no one worrying in the slightest. And that's without the starting pitchers really pitching to their ability.

The point here is this won't keep up. While the offense might have some holes, it's not going to be prolifically bad. The conclusions are reaching an all-time high (or low) for ridiculousness right now. Like I said... let's revisit this in July. I tend to think this will be a whole different picture.
Reds started with a double bogey after the first hole.

Second hole isnt looking good either though.

pedro
04-19-2012, 01:58 PM
They'll "right the ship" so to speak and end up the 87 win team many thought they were.

fearofpopvol1
04-19-2012, 02:13 PM
There is no doubt this team has started out the first two weeks playing abysmal. But look at who they have played - three teams (Marlins, Nationals, Cards (two series) - who aren't slouches, have impressive pitching staffs (the Nat's staff really impresses me), and who are going to be strong contenders, IMO, in their respective divisions.

We just need to play some sub-par (bad) teams to help us get it together and right ourselves. We got the Cubs this weekend. ;)

All this stuff about the Reds are in serious trouble just 12 games into the season, people going into meltdown mode and jumping off bridges, has me simply shaking my head in utter amazement.

I think that is the problem, that half the games have been against our division rivals who are also a contender for the division and they have beat up on us as we have lost 4 out of 5. We're losing major ground on the Cards.

Benihana
04-19-2012, 02:35 PM
We need a real, cleanup hitting LF.

Other than that, this team will be fine.

MikeS21
04-19-2012, 03:21 PM
This is a nice concept, but let's dig deeper. Beyond Votto, Bruce, and Phillips (if healthy), which RECENT career norms are you looking for.

Rolen is older and has a long injury history. Ludwick had a bad 2011. So did Stubbs. Heisey has never been a regular. Hanigan had a sub-par 2011. The bench is weak - are you aspiring to Willie Harris' career norms?

I really like Cozart and Mes (looked great last night) but they have no career norms. They are rookies. Nor does Frazier.

This "return to career norm" platitude doesn't wash IMO. Who are we talking about aside from the three good hitters on the ballclub? Don't the Reds need "career years" rather than norms from some players to have an acceptable offense? I think so. Or very strong emergence from rookies, that might help too.

Obviously the hitting will be better than now, but to win a championship you need good (if not excellent) offensive performance. I see three guys likely to provide that. Others may, but it's hard to expect it.
I don't disagree that even at career norms, this offense probably isn't good enough to win the division. In fact, if you look back at 2011, you will find an extraordinary number of games where the Reds pitching held the opposition to 3 runs or less and LOST the games. If the Reds win at least half of those games that they lost (games where they held the opposition to 3 runs or less), the Reds are awfully close to winning the NL Wild Card. The problems in 2011 had much more to do with the offense than pitching problems (in spite of the fact that Arroyo and Wood struggled).

I know that Rolen and Stubbs are the main whipping boys right now. The funny thing is that they aren't the only ones who aren't hitting. Everybody keeps talking about "protecting Joey" but there is not one player in this entire organization who is hitting well enough to "protect Joey." And to beat it all, Joey himself looks lost 95% of the time. I do not think Votto, Bruce, or Phillips will be this bad all year. Nor do I think Rolen or Stubbs will be this bad all year. Ludwick is showing us Johnny Gomes Bad. Law of averages says that sooner or later, he will also show us Johnny Gomes Good. Unfortunately, the law of averages will catch up to Cozart and he will trend down. I do think if the Reds flip-flopped playing time of Mesaroco and Hannigan, where Mes got most of the AB's that would generate a modest degree of offense. I do not think more AB's from Heisey will generate more offense, as his numbers seem to drop the more he plays.

All in all, the Reds replaced Gomes with Ludwick, and Hernandez with Mesaroco, Janish/Renteria with Cozart, and you basically have the same offense as last year - an offense that generated a lot of runs - but also generated a lot of games where they could only score 1-2 runs.

I've said it before, but every team - even the one with the absolute worst W-L record, will win at least 40 games, and every team - even the team with the best record in baseball - will lose at least 40 games. It's what you do with the other 82 games that determines the final standings.

You think its fun now, wait until the offense gets going and the pitching starts to trend back down to career norms.

Vottomatic
04-19-2012, 04:26 PM
We need a real, cleanup hitting LF.

Other than that, this team will be fine.

My biggest gripe for the last 2 seasons.

They are wasting Votto by not getting him pitches to hit.

Reds ownership/management has me scratching my head. I thought they knew what they're doing? They continue to puzzle.

Raisor
04-19-2012, 05:59 PM
Six runs today! The slump is over! (Hey if ya'll want to use 12 games as a sample size I can use one game. One game out of 13 is a bigger percentage then 12 games out of 162)

wolfboy
04-19-2012, 06:04 PM
Six runs today! The slump is over! (Hey if ya'll want to use 12 games as a sample size I can use one game. One game out of 13 is a bigger percentage then 12 games out of 162)

I offer you this :thumbup: in lieu of a "like" button.

edabbs44
04-19-2012, 06:26 PM
You know who isn't in trouble? Bronson, baby!

Dan
04-19-2012, 06:43 PM
Six runs today! The slump is over! (Hey if ya'll want to use 12 games as a sample size I can use one game. One game out of 13 is a bigger percentage then 12 games out of 162)

Small sample size :D

WVRedsFan
04-19-2012, 07:04 PM
After 13 games, the Reds hitters (and they improved a bunch today) from top to bottom:

Votto - .289
Cozart - .286
Arroyo - .250
Phillips - .235
Stubbs - .229
Ludwig - .229
Bruce - .216
Heisey - .208
Hanigan - .207
Rolen - .171
Frazier - .000

Today they had 12 hits which raised many off the interstate. Lok for the bats to heat up.

Raisor
04-19-2012, 07:10 PM
Those are the lowest OPS numbers I've ever seen.

GAC
04-19-2012, 07:19 PM
I think that is the problem, that half the games have been against our division rivals who are also a contender for the division and they have beat up on us as we have lost 4 out of 5. We're losing major ground on the Cards.

4 outa 6 :D

The Cards are a good team, and we all knew we'd be fighting them for the division. They simply got off to a hot start... and us a not so hot start.

Yes we're 4 games back; but there is still mucho time left with only 13 games played. IMO, the question mark for the Cards, in the long run, is going to be their pitching. Carpenter is out indefinitely, Wainwright looks terrible. I like Garcia and Lynn. But lets talk Lohse. Yes the guy has pitched phenomenal in his first few starts; but does anyone, knowing Lohse career-wise, think he is going to continue at the pace he is going? We're talking an unreal ERA of .89 and WHIP of .59. He's going to come back to earth at some point.

The Cards are going to hit their "troughs" this year.

PuffyPig
04-19-2012, 07:27 PM
With threads like this, this board is in a lot more trouble than the Reds.

It's astonishing that people are actually saying we need to gut the team after only 13 games and only 4 back.

Does anyone really beleive all of the Cards hitters will stay healthy and OPS 1.000?

Unbelievable.

Raisor
04-19-2012, 07:46 PM
More interesting stats! The Reds scored 735 runs last year. Using my big graphing calculator I have done the match and have come to the conclusion that that equals 4.54 runs a game. So far the Reds have scored 36 runs this year. If they want to match last year's run total they'll have to score 699 more runs in the remaining 149 games. That's 4.69 runs a game! That is 0.15 more runs per game then last year! Or to put it another way they'll have to score 1 whole additional runs every 6.6 games!

corkedbat
04-19-2012, 08:01 PM
IMHO, moves Reds need to make.

* Acquire a solid bat at 3B or LF to protect Joey

* Acquire a bullpen arm solid enough to make them feel comfortable in moving Aroldis back to the rotation.

* Move Aroldis back to the rotation.

* Deal Bailey (if he'll bring anything useful) or send Leake to L'Ville

oregonred
04-19-2012, 08:10 PM
Reds are 0-6 at night and 5-2 during the day. Three day games at Wrigley on deck.

Cardinals are on pace for a +380 run differntial and the Reds are on pace for a -210 run differential. Just Sayin' We are so screwed... ;)

And the pythag says we should be 6 back but yet we are only 4 back. See it could be worse :)

757690
04-19-2012, 08:12 PM
More interesting stats! The Reds scored 735 runs last year. Using my big graphing calculator I have done the match and have come to the conclusion that that equals 4.54 runs a game. So far the Reds have scored 36 runs this year. If they want to match last year's run total they'll have to score 699 more runs in the remaining 149 games. That's 4.69 runs a game! That is 0.15 more runs per game then last year! Or to put it another way they'll have to score 1 whole additional runs every 6.6 games!

Great stuff. Thanks.

They also are on pace to give up 60 less runs over the season since last season. I'm guessing a brainiac like you can figure out the Pythag for that, but I imagine it would get them close to 90 wins.

Puffy
04-19-2012, 08:26 PM
My biggest gripe for the last 2 seasons.

They are wasting Votto by not getting him pitches to hit.

Reds ownership/management has me scratching my head. I thought they knew what they're doing? They continue to puzzle.

If only they'd get someone to hit behind Votto he'd win an MVP!

PuffyPig
04-19-2012, 08:48 PM
Reds are 0-6 at night and 5-2 during the day. Three day games at Wrigley on deck.

Cardinals are on pace for a +380 run differntial and the Reds are on pace for a -210 run differential. Just Sayin' We are so screwed... ;)

And the pythag says we should be 6 back but yet we are only 4 back. See it could be worse :)

On April 6 last year we were on pace for a +842 at 5-0. The Cards were 2-4 on pace for a -270.

Their fan base was freaking, our board was talking about the world series.

Just sayin'.

Larkin Fan
04-19-2012, 09:05 PM
More interesting stats! The Reds scored 735 runs last year. Using my big graphing calculator I have done the match and have come to the conclusion that that equals 4.54 runs a game. So far the Reds have scored 36 runs this year. If they want to match last year's run total they'll have to score 699 more runs in the remaining 149 games. That's 4.69 runs a game! That is 0.15 more runs per game then last year! Or to put it another way they'll have to score 1 whole additional runs every 6.6 games!

No way. The sky is falling.

jojo
04-19-2012, 09:18 PM
Things go in cycles. Right now if someone says chill and tries to inject some context to show this isn't Armageddon, there's primal screaming. When the Reds get on a roll and someone tries to inject some context to show player X really hasn't morphed into a new, sustainable awesomeness, there will be primal screaming.

Redsone would suck as one of the drivers on Ice Road Truckers given the way the tone over corrects...

WVRedsFan
04-19-2012, 09:19 PM
Those are the lowest OPS numbers I've ever seen.Batting average, but the OPS numbers are not that much better. Believe me.

Roy Tucker
04-19-2012, 09:26 PM
The Reds have been playing since 1866 (or something like that). Fans will be fans.

Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...

M2
04-19-2012, 10:48 PM
I suppose a person's opinion of whether it's way too early or evidence of impending catastrophe depends on what you thought of the team heading into the season. I generally liked the way things looked, so I'm getting a very 1999 vibe about this crew. The '99 Reds started 4-8, frustrating many. Fans started posting that JimBo should blow up the team. The team didn't even reach .500 until mid-May.

Yet it just took a while for all the new pieces to come together. I think that's what we're seeing here. The offense will improve and, when that happens, it will clarify Jocketty's shopping list. Latos will get in a groove. Chapman may become an impact starter this season. J.J. Hoover is tearing it up down in Louisville. Slowly but surely I think we'll see the pieces come together. For instance, that Bronson Arroyo guy would seem to be an asset. Might get a few innings of work out of out him.

HokieRed
04-19-2012, 10:56 PM
I'm encouraged after today, and frankly I liked the way they won the last game of the Washington series too. We may be seeing the most important developing story of the year in Bronson Arroyo's return to effectiveness. Let's hope it continues. There are still a number of problems in the team's construction, IMHO, but I think the panic mode is premature.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 11:11 PM
I suppose a person's opinion of whether it's way too early or evidence of impending catastrophe depends on what you thought of the team heading into the season. I generally liked the way things looked, so I'm getting a very 1999 vibe about this crew. The '99 Reds started 4-8, frustrating many. Fans started posting that JimBo should blow up the team. The team didn't even reach .500 until mid-May.

.

Ah, 1999. I'll take three guys from that roster, not big stars. Guys we can afford.

I'll beef up the lefty hitting with Michael Tucker and Eddie Taubensee. Yes, I'll go with three catchers if I can get Eddie.

I'll take Scott Williamson to go with with Marshall and Chapman in the bullpen.

Then I'm ready to go to war.

HokieRed
04-19-2012, 11:14 PM
A left-handed stick and one more reliever would do a lot to remedy what I see as the team's construction problems. We may have help on the one coming from Masset/Hoover. The other I think we'll have to deal for, unless somehow Mike Costanzo becomes a minor miracle. So far the results at L'ville are good, a couple hits again tonight.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 11:15 PM
A left-handed stick and one more reliever would do a lot to remedy what I see as the team's construction problems. We may have help on the one coming from Masset/Hoover. The other I think we'll have to deal for, unless somehow Mike Costanzo becomes a minor miracle. So far the results at L'ville are good, a couple hits again tonight.

How about Curtis Granderson. Five hits tonight, three homers.

Think the Reds could find room for his lefty bat?

Kc61
04-19-2012, 11:18 PM
I'm encouraged after today, and frankly I liked the way they won the last game of the Washington series too. We may be seeing the most important developing story of the year in Bronson Arroyo's return to effectiveness. Let's hope it continues. There are still a number of problems in the team's construction, IMHO, but I think the panic mode is premature.

LOL, I understand the piling on those, like me, who are concerned about the offense after two weeks.

But let's not get too excited about today. Reds won a salvage game in a lost series against a pitcher who missed last year and has a 9.88 ERA for a Cards team without Berkman or Molina. I'll take the win, but I'm not sending in for World Series tickets just yet.

Agree on Arroyo. Shows you what can happen when an athlete really cares and works to regain his form. Great story. Let's hope it continues and Dusty doesn't make him pitch 280 innings.

HokieRed
04-19-2012, 11:18 PM
How about Curtis Granderson. Five hits tonight, three homers.

Think the Reds could find room for his lefty bat?

Never hurts to dream.

HokieRed
04-19-2012, 11:21 PM
LOL, I understand the piling on those, like me, who are concerned about the offense after two weeks.

But let's not get too excited about today. Reds won a salvage game in a lost series against a pitcher who missed last year and has a 9.88 ERA for a Cards team without Berkman or Molina. I'll take the win, but I'm not sending in for World Series tickets just yet.

Agree on Arroyo. Shows you what can happen when an athlete really cares and works to regain his form. Great story. Let's hope it continues and Dusty doesn't make him pitch 280 innings.

No piling on intended, on you or anyone else. I've been as frustrated as anybody and I was sounding the way too right-handedness about as early as you were. But I am encouraged by Arroyo--on the other hand, of course, greatly discouraged thus far by Latos.

Kc61
04-19-2012, 11:25 PM
No piling on intended, on you or anyone else. I've been as frustrated as anybody and I was sounding the way too right-handedness about as early as you were. But I am encouraged by Arroyo--on the other hand, of course, greatly discouraged thus far by Latos.

I'm giving Latos a month to adjust. Not sure what he has to adjust to, but I'm giving him the month.

In addition to Arroyo, Stubbs did well today. These two guys really had miserable times of it in 2011. Would love to see them both gain confidence and have great 2012 seasons. Was glad for them both today, they could use some success.

traderumor
04-19-2012, 11:55 PM
I'm giving Latos a month to adjust. Not sure what he has to adjust to, but I'm giving him the month.

In addition to Arroyo, Stubbs did well today. These two guys really had miserable times of it in 2011. Would love to see them both gain confidence and have great 2012 seasons. Was glad for them both today, they could use some success.And if he doesn't? Boycotting his starts? Ask for a refund?

PuffyPig
04-20-2012, 12:04 AM
My biggest gripe for the last 2 seasons.

They are wasting Votto by not getting him pitches to hit.



I guess that is why he`s been the majors best hitter over the last two years.......

Kc61
04-20-2012, 12:14 AM
The Reds have been playing since 1866 (or something like that). Fans will be fans.

Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...Same as it ever was...


And if he doesn't? Boycotting his starts? Ask for a refund?

No. If Latos doesn't start winning after a month, I'm starting a RedsZone thread called Latos Trade A Disaster?

(Actually, I've always been a bit nervous about the trade, only because I fear that Grandal could become an all-star switch hitting catcher. I'll mention that in the new thread after a month.)

oregonred
04-20-2012, 01:28 AM
And if he doesn't? Boycotting his starts? Ask for a refund?

I say drop the hammer and simultaneously unfriend and unfollow Dallas...

REDREAD
04-20-2012, 01:41 AM
To be honest they're playing so rotten they're threatening to ruin a season 12 games in. As far as I'm concerned I'm tired of Bruce, Bailey, Dusty Baker, Stubbs, Arroyo, Leake. .

Well, maybe you posted that before today's game, but Bronson is off to a great start. 2.91 ERA 0.88 Whip. 21.2 IP in 3 starts. If Latos had started like that, we'd be on cloud 9.. I'm very encouraged that Bronson is going to give us a solid year. Yes, he stunk last year, but he's fine this year so far.

Leake had one bad start and one QS..

It just seems a little bit early to be sick of anyone.. the hitters will come around. Even Stubbs had a good night tonight.

REDREAD
04-20-2012, 01:42 AM
Having 6 starters (2 are LF) below or at the Mendoza line ain't helping.

But Ludwick is starting to come around. The other hitters will too.

HokieRed
04-20-2012, 02:57 AM
But Ludwick is starting to come around. The other hitters will too.

Juan Francisco coming around for Atlanta, now at .987. (admittedly small sample size)

GAC
04-20-2012, 05:35 AM
I'm giving Latos a month to adjust. Not sure what he has to adjust to, but I'm giving him the month.

Sounds fair. If you look at his performance coming out of the gate over the last two years he appears to be a slow starter. In 2010, when he ended up 14-10, he went 1-2 in April w/ a 6.20 ERA. Then in the next 4 months he was on fire, going 12-3 w/ an ERA of 1.66. Wow! And last year he went 0-4 in April w/ an ERA of 4.98.

The concern I have is pitching in Petco vs GABP. Last year, Petco had a Park Factor of .819 (28th), while GABP was 1.082 (8th). So he is going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park.

Best on Home Turf: Several pitchers could be in for a rude awakening with new clubs

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2012-03/home-turf/story/best-on-home-turf-several-pitchers-could-be-in-for-a-rude-awakening-with-new-clu


Latos is a fly-ball pitcher, and there is concern that his style won’t translate well to the bandbox known as Great American Ball Park. Only 22 starting pitchers had a worse groundball-to-flyball ratio than Latos last season.

reds1869
04-20-2012, 07:48 AM
The concern I have is pitching in Petco vs GABP. Last year, Petco had a Park Factor of .819 (28th), while GABP was 1.082 (8th). So he is going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park.

His numbers were better at home in San Diego, but not by much. I think the park effect is overblown as a concern in Latos' case.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=502009#gameType=%27R%27&sectionType=splitsCareer&statType=2&season=2011&level=%27ALL%27

traderumor
04-20-2012, 11:10 AM
The early warning bells on Latos should begin and end with a history of April struggles. So far, he has pitched one game in GAB and two on the road, and Busch is a pitcher friendly park, yet he got rocked. His history also was no dramatic home/road splits. Since his slow start is not attributable to homers flying out of GAB, it seems a bit premature to be sounding those alarms at all.

Maybe he should have came to ST "in the best shape of his life."

LvJ
04-20-2012, 11:21 AM
Juan Francisco coming around for Atlanta, now at .987. (admittedly small sample size)

Small, yes - but looks quite impressive so far. I knew he'd be hitting. Defense has been very bad, however.

JJ Hoover in Louisville: 15 K, 3 BB in 7.1 IP. Not bad. :thumbup:

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 11:33 AM
Sounds fair. If you look at his performance coming out of the gate over the last two years he appears to be a slow starter. In 2010, when he ended up 14-10, he went 1-2 in April w/ a 6.20 ERA. Then in the next 4 months he was on fire, going 12-3 w/ an ERA of 1.66. Wow! And last year he went 0-4 in April w/ an ERA of 4.98.

The concern I have is pitching in Petco vs GABP. Last year, Petco had a Park Factor of .819 (28th), while GABP was 1.082 (8th). So he is going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park.

Best on Home Turf: Several pitchers could be in for a rude awakening with new clubs

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2012-03/home-turf/story/best-on-home-turf-several-pitchers-could-be-in-for-a-rude-awakening-with-new-clu

He's averaging almost 5 walks per nine. He's also striking out 2 less batters per nine than he did last year. I don't think GABP has much to do with either of those numbers.

wolfboy
04-20-2012, 11:34 AM
Also, FWIW, Aaron Harang had much worse fly ball tendencies than Latos, and he had one heck of a run in GABP.

Kc61
04-20-2012, 12:51 PM
Also, FWIW, Aaron Harang had much worse fly ball tendencies than Latos, and he had one heck of a run in GABP.

We will all have to cut Latos some slack pitching in the smaller stadiums. His numbers will suffer to some extent, they almost have to.

So if he turns out to be a 200 inning pitcher with a 3.8 ERA, I'm delighted.

If GABP and the NL Central causes Latos to become a lousy pitcher, that's a problem, but we're a long way from anything like that.

RichRed
04-20-2012, 02:30 PM
The early warning bells on Latos should begin and end with a history of April struggles. So far, he has pitched one game in GAB and two on the road, and Busch is a pitcher friendly park, yet he got rocked. His history also was no dramatic home/road splits. Since his slow start is not attributable to homers flying out of GAB, it seems a bit premature to be sounding those alarms at all.

Maybe he should have came to ST "in the best shape of his life."

Yep. Latos's career ERA by month:

Mar/Apr - 6.28
May - 2.41
Jun - 3.55
Jul - 2.54
Aug - 3.35
Sep/Oct - 3.86

Park factors aside, we should expect to see a much improved Latos as the season progresses, if history's any indication.

cumberlandreds
04-20-2012, 02:32 PM
Yep. Latos's career ERA by month:

Mar/Apr - 6.28
May - 2.41
Jun - 3.55
Jul - 2.54
Aug - 3.35
Sep/Oct - 3.86

Park factors aside, we should expect to see a much improved Latos as the season progresses, if history's any indication.

OK with that let's put Latos on the shelf until May and put Chapman in the rotation until then. ;)

Raisor
04-20-2012, 07:08 PM
Are we all breathing a little better now?

PuffyPig
04-20-2012, 07:13 PM
You'll see a lot of Reds BAs start to climb as they climb to their norms, much like you'll see a lot of Cards hitter's BA's start to decline for the same reason.

Baseball is not a sport where you can make judgements based on 10 games.

I'm not sure why many can't seem to understand that when they appear to watch 162 games per season.

RANDY IN INDY
04-20-2012, 07:25 PM
You'll see a lot of Reds BAs start to climb as they climb to their norms, much like you'll see a lot of Cards hitter's BA's start to decline for the same reason.

Baseball is not a sport where you can make judgements based on 10 games.

I'm not sure why many can't seem to understand that when they appear to watch 162 games per season.

:beerme:

Kc61
04-20-2012, 07:25 PM
You'll see a lot of Reds BAs start to climb as they climb to their norms, much like you'll see a lot of Cards hitter's BA's start to decline for the same reason.

Baseball is not a sport where you can make judgements based on 10 games.

I'm not sure why many can't seem to understand that when they appear to watch 162 games per season.

Yeah, those of us concerned about the team, we just couldn't grasp that 10 is less than 162. Really glad some others explained that to us.

If the Reds are to succeed they need to be competitive with the Cards pitching Lohse, Garcia and Westbrook, with the Nats pitching Zimmerman and others. Winning salvage games of lost series and beating the Cubs this year, well, hopefully that's not the prize for our loyalty.

So far, it's nice to see Arroyo and Stubbs showing more confidence, that could help a lot. Hopefully they will continue to do well and some of the holes will be filled as the season goes on.

Brutus
04-20-2012, 07:41 PM
Yeah, those of us concerned about the team, we just couldn't grasp that 10 is less than 162. Really glad some others explained that to us.

If the Reds are to succeed they need to be competitive with the Cards pitching Lohse, Garcia and Westbrook, with the Nats pitching Zimmerman and others. Winning salvage games of lost series and beating the Cubs this year, well, hopefully that's not the prize for our loyalty.

So far, it's nice to see Arroyo and Stubbs showing more confidence, that could help a lot. Hopefully they will continue to do well and some of the holes will be filled as the season goes on.

I've no doubt you grasped it, but why weren't you embracing it?

You questioned my calling it a fluke sample based on 10 games where hitters were literally hundreds of points away from their norms. It seems there should not have been a panic if you understood what we were seeing was not repeatable over a longer stretch.

If you don't feel their career norms will be enough offense, that's fine. But then the last 10-12 games shouldn't have mattered as that wasn't indicative of what this team will be anyhow. As far as career norms, I disagree. I think with the Reds' staff expected to be better on the whole this year, there is quite a bit of evidence to show teams that are well above average at run prevention can win 90+ games with an average offense or even slightly below that.

PuffyPig
04-20-2012, 08:19 PM
Yeah, those of us concerned about the team, we just couldn't grasp that 10 is less than 162. Really glad some others explained that to us.

If the Reds are to succeed they need to be competitive with the Cards pitching Lohse, Garcia and Westbrook.....

You just proved you haven't grasped it yet.

You really think Westbrook, Lohse and Garcia will continue to throw zero's and win every start? Becuase you post like you do.

Kc61
04-20-2012, 08:21 PM
I've no doubt you grasped it, but why weren't you embracing it?

You questioned my calling it a fluke sample based on 10 games where hitters were literally hundreds of points away from their norms. It seems there should not have been a panic if you understood what we were seeing was not repeatable over a longer stretch.

If you don't feel their career norms will be enough offense, that's fine. But then the last 10-12 games shouldn't have mattered as that wasn't indicative of what this team will be anyhow. As far as career norms, I disagree. I think with the Reds' staff expected to be better on the whole this year, there is quite a bit of evidence to show teams that are well above average at run prevention can win 90+ games with an average offense or even slightly below that.

Fair question. Watching the team on the field crystallizes the issue. Watching Jake Westbrook, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse and similar right handers shut down the Reds highlighted the offensive deficits.

I got a particular kick out of those posts complaining about the tough schedule the Reds had to open the season. Beating up on the Cubs and (hopefully) Astros is fun, but if the Cards, Marlins and Nats are too tough there's kind of a problem.

But I'm not going to knock by head against the wall. I see needs on offense and I can only hope that over the season Walt will address them one way or the other. I'm not going to dwell on these problems all season, they are obvious enough.

I agree that the Reds should prevent runs pretty well and that should elevate them to the .500 range or possibly slightly better. And I don't think the offense needs more star players with 225 million dollar contracts. But I maintain that to be significantly improved from last year, the Reds still have some real needs on offense.

Kc61
04-20-2012, 08:30 PM
You just proved you haven't grasped it yet.

You really think Westbrook, Lohse and Garcia will continue to throw zero's and win every start? Becuase you post like you do.

Whatever you say.

The Reds will face average to slightly better right handed starters very, very frequently this year. They need to have the kind of offense that can routinely score four and five runs in these games. IMO, that will require some improvement in the offense's structure.

I assume we both grasp that, whether you agree with it or not.

PuffyPig
04-20-2012, 08:54 PM
Whatever you say.

The Reds will face average to slightly better right handed starters very, very frequently this year. They need to have the kind of offense that can routinely score four and five runs in these games. IMO, that will require some improvement in the offense's structure.

I assume we both grasp that, whether you agree with it or not.

We scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year, with little production from 3B, SS and LF. I think those positions are improved this year.

I'm certainly not ready to gut the team just yet anyway, as many here are.

M2
04-20-2012, 10:12 PM
Ah, 1999. I'll take three guys from that roster, not big stars. Guys we can afford.

I'll beef up the lefty hitting with Michael Tucker and Eddie Taubensee. Yes, I'll go with three catchers if I can get Eddie.

I'll take Scott Williamson to go with with Marshall and Chapman in the bullpen.

Then I'm ready to go to war.

Excellent choices. Quick Sherman, to the Wayback Machine!

cincrazy
04-20-2012, 10:31 PM
We scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year, with little production from 3B, SS and LF. I think those positions are improved this year.

I'm certainly not ready to gut the team just yet anyway, as many here are.

I don't think anyone was freaking out thinking this team was going to lose 100 games. I get tired of hearing the "IT'S EARLY!" crap. Well when is it not early? Is there a specific date? In May? June? Clearly any rational thinking person on this board KNEW things weren't going to continue the way they were.

It's ok to be concerned about 3B. And about left. And about center. And about rookies at catcher and short. The standards of this board have risen. This team is no longer judged on whether it's good enough to "compete," but whether it's good enough to win titles. This is an average team, maybe better. And to some that's just not going to be good enough. And I don't feel like that's anything to apologize for. These last two games haven't changed a thing as far as the concerns of many.

Tom Servo
04-20-2012, 11:06 PM
These last two games haven't changed a thing as far as the concerns of many.
And yet the amount of 'the sky is falling, release and fire everybody' posts has significantly decreased, go figure.

REDblooded
04-20-2012, 11:43 PM
And yet the amount of 'the sky is falling, release and fire everybody' posts has significantly decreased, go figure.

Slowly, wining quiets the heart... Quickly, winning quiets the voice.

Reference me on that quote.

PuffyPig
04-21-2012, 12:04 AM
I don't think anyone was freaking out thinking this team was going to lose 100 games. I get tired of hearing the "IT'S EARLY!" crap. Well when is it not early? Is there a specific date? In May? June? Clearly any rational thinking person on this board KNEW things weren't going to continue the way they were.



Many, many thought they were.

Go back and reread the threads.

Roy Tucker
04-21-2012, 12:07 AM
The sky is stabilizing.

Raisor
04-21-2012, 12:28 AM
Re: Juan Fransisco
Earlier today a couple people up thread were talking about how impressed with Juan's start (+.900 OPS), one poster even admitted that it was a "small sample size". All I can say is that calling his start a "small sample size" is actually a insult to real "small sample sizes". Going into today's game he had *25* abs this yearan with 20 percent of those ABs coming yesterday. That's what I'm talking about when I say that it's "early". Because it is. Really early.

kaldaniels
04-23-2012, 11:10 PM
Slowly, wining quiets the heart... Quickly, winning quiets the voice.

Reference me on that quote.

Absolutely. Studies show a glass of red wine a day has tremendous benefits for the heart.

- couldn't help it, especially with your reference request :laugh:

Vottomatic
04-25-2012, 09:00 AM
Reds need to pry a legit cleanup hitter away from one of the rebuilding clubs. Overpay if they have to, namely with their farm system.

Think about it. The following positions are locked up for a long time:
C - Mesoraco and Hanigan
1B - Votto - signed forever
2B - Phillips - signed for a long time
SS - Cozart - SS for a long time
3B - question mark after this season
CF - Heisey and/or Stubbs, one could be traded
RF - Bruce - will be there a long time
LF - ????? - future cleanup hitter

Basically 3B and LF are the only positions that we don't know what the future holds. We have no one immediately in the system to replace those positions adequately.

Reds aren't going to re-sign Rolen. And I'm not crazy about the 2013 3B free agents.

Probably going to need some kind of blockbuster deal where the Reds overpay with good prospects (typically blocked by the major league roster) to get that cleanup hitter for 3B or LF. I look for this to happen at the trade deadline, or possibly sooner if some rebuilding club clearly out of it early decides to move on.

One guy that plays both 3B and LF is in San Diego.......Chase Headley. He turns 28 this year and his numbers are trending upward. If Dodgers continue to run away with that division, and the Padres continue to be bottomdwellars, might be a guy to pursue as a future third baseman to fill Rolen's shoes next year, and play LF the rest of this year.

elfmanvt07
04-25-2012, 09:09 AM
Obviously this is a bit premature, but I've always held to the belief that if Stubbs could develop patience at the plate, he has the tools to be an All-Star. If you showed his PAs the last few days compared to two weeks ago, it wouldn't even look like the same guy.

Sell high?

PuffyPig
04-25-2012, 10:05 AM
Obviously this is a bit premature, but I've always held to the belief that if Stubbs could develop patience at the plate, he has the tools to be an All-Star. If you showed his PAs the last few days compared to two weeks ago, it wouldn't even look like the same guy.

Sell high?

Someone contemplating trading for Stubbs is going to look beyond the last two weeks.

It's an old wives tale that you can sell high on an established player based on a few weeks.

And Stubbs has always had plenty of patience at the plate, perhaps too much. His problem has always been pitch recognition.

elfmanvt07
04-25-2012, 10:12 AM
And Stubbs has always had plenty of patience at the plate, perhaps too much. His problem has always been pitch recognition.

My point is that his start to the season saw him swinging at a lot of first pitches. If your eye isn't what it should be, the last thing you should do is swing at the first thing you see.

PuffyPig
04-25-2012, 10:43 AM
My point is that his start to the season saw him swinging at a lot of first pitches. If your eye isn't what it should be, the last thing you should do is swing at the first thing you see.

My point is that Stubbs goes through hot periods and cold periods.

The whole world knows it. Trading him today would not be "selling high".

BTW, if your eye isn't what it should be, when should you swing?

RANDY IN INDY
04-25-2012, 11:34 AM
My point is that Stubbs goes through hot periods and cold periods.

The whole world knows it. Trading him today would not be "selling high".

BTW, if your eye isn't what it should be, when should you swing?

It's easier after you get two strikes on you.;)

jojo
04-25-2012, 12:36 PM
If Stubbs becomes virtually impossible to walk, he'll be essentially a defensive replacement or marginal starter for a bad team fairly quickly.

M2
04-25-2012, 12:43 PM
The sky is stabilizing.

Might have to change the name of this thread to "Reds are in serious danger of putting together a winning April"

WildcatFan
04-25-2012, 12:56 PM
Might have to change the name of this thread to "Reds are in serious danger of putting together a winning April"

"Reds hit some serious doubles"

PuffyPig
04-25-2012, 01:52 PM
I'm sure glad we didn't gut the team mid-April as many wanted us to do.

Tommyjohn25
04-25-2012, 01:54 PM
"Reds hit some serious doubles"

:laugh:

pedro
04-25-2012, 05:19 PM
Reds fans bad at Scrubble

d'oh!

SunDeck
04-25-2012, 05:59 PM
I love baseball because it reminds us of things like patience, persistence, grinding out at one's job day in and day out and keeping their wits about them when things aren't going right.
Thank you April.

Kc61
04-25-2012, 06:11 PM
I love baseball because it reminds us of things like patience, persistence, grinding out at one's job day in and day out and keeping their wits about them when things aren't going right.
Thank you April.

Baseball also reminds us not to read too much into a little success.

The Reds hardly demolished the lowly Cubs, they won two of three, with the rubber game requiring Cueto, Ondrusek, Chapman and Marshall for the one-run victory.

The Reds then did beat up on the Giants, true, with Cain pitching, true, but SF did play an evening doubleheader in NY the day before.

The sky may not be falling, but I'd like to be a couple of games over .500 before I break out the champagne.

More specifically, I'd like to see the Reds win this homestand and perhaps the next one, and establish a bit of a home field advantage. The hitters seem to enjoy the short fences, let's see if they can turn most of these home games into victories.

PuffyPig
04-25-2012, 06:38 PM
Baseball also reminds us not to read too much into a little success.



Or a little failure.......

Kc61
04-25-2012, 06:52 PM
Or a little failure.......

And not to ignore the areas that need improvement.

oregonred
04-25-2012, 11:22 PM
Team X is looking good all of a sudden... Offense and pitching and some (finally) timely hitting.

9-9 last year, but a major pfffffffffffft after the 5-0 start.
9-9 this year with a well timed 5-1 streak...

kaldaniels
04-25-2012, 11:27 PM
I am really tempted to read the first few pages of this thread for entertainment but I almost want to save it for later.

Caveat Emperor
04-25-2012, 11:31 PM
I'm still panicking, for the record.

Vottomatic
04-25-2012, 11:41 PM
My only concern is that the Cardinals pitching is looking better than the Reds pitching. And the Reds pitching has been pretty darn good.

oregonred
04-25-2012, 11:47 PM
With two wild cards, the Reds don't really need to be as concerned about division rivals. 90 wins means a likely post season slot.

Now if the Cards are going to maintain the current pace of leading the league in OPS and have a 2.65 ERA/1.04 WHIP along with a +275 run differential over 162 games then the rest of MLB should be terrified and focus on the NFL draft tomorrow.

PuffyPig
04-25-2012, 11:49 PM
My only concern is that the Cardinals pitching is looking better than the Reds pitching. And the Reds pitching has been pretty darn good.

The Cards pitching will be great as long as thier team BABIP remains around .250.

I'm not that worried. Their pitch should be good, but not that good.

Tom Servo
04-25-2012, 11:51 PM
It's perfectly natural to have concerns over the team, but the level of hand-wringing and complaining last week was out of hand.

kbrake
04-25-2012, 11:55 PM
It's perfectly natural to have concerns over the team, but the level of hand-wringing and complaining last week was out of hand.

Expectations plus the let down of 2011 and that is what will lead to people having short fuses. I think this team got the benefit of the doubt from most people all year last year. They won't get it again this year.

PuffyPig
04-26-2012, 12:00 AM
And not to ignore the areas that need improvement.

True, but you might need more than 10 games to properly asess what those areas might be.

oregonred
04-26-2012, 12:34 AM
Still drooling over what should be the 2H 2012 rotation

Chapman
Latos
Cueto
Arroyo - the good version:)
Bailey/Leake

Not that it should be a driver, but adding Chapman to the rotation would make for great walk up crowds at GABP like Strasburg was in DC. I wouldn't miss many of his starts if I was a local (again).

Kc61
04-26-2012, 12:40 AM
True, but you might need more than 10 games to properly asess what those areas might be.

If you've followed the team carefully, you can tell pretty early. For example, you can tell if a team lacks enough left handed hitting. You can wait until May or June, but all the righties will still be righties.

AtomicDumpling
04-26-2012, 01:20 AM
I am really tempted to read the first few pages of this thread for entertainment but I almost want to save it for later.

I just read them and you were correct. Those pages were very entertaining. :laugh:

I think the people that were panicking were the folks that predicted the Reds to win 95 games and advance to the World Series. They felt the Reds' chances for glory slipping away. A bad start is frustrating for all of us, but if you were not expecting greatness then you were not as shocked by the early losing streak.

I predicted the Reds to win 83 games this year and finish 13 games behind the Brewers and I haven't seen anything to make me want to revise that estimate yet. I still think the pitching is not good enough and I still think the Reds will finish in the top 3 in the National League in runs scored. The Reds are an average MLB team overall. Despite the Cardinals lucky start I still believe the Brewers are the best team in the division just like they were last year.

The pitching has been better than I expected so far, especially Bronson Arroyo. I would be surprised if his ERA is under 4.50 at the end of the year even after his good start. The hitting has been worse than I expected so far, but I think they will heat up and be near the top of the league like they are every year.

dougdirt
04-26-2012, 01:23 AM
I just read them and you were correct. Those pages were very entertaining. :laugh:

I think the people that were panicking were the folks that predicted the Reds to win 95 games and advance to the World Series. They felt the Reds' chances for glory slipping away. A bad start is frustrating for all of us, but if you were not expecting greatness then you were not as shocked by the early losing streak.

I predicted the Reds to win 83 games this year and finish 13 games behind the Brewers and I haven't seen anything to make me want to revise that estimate yet. I still think the pitching is not good enough and I still think the Reds will finish in the top 3 in the National League in runs scored. The Reds are an average MLB team overall. Despite the Cardinals lucky start I still believe the Brewers are the best team in the division just like they were last year.

The pitching has been better than I expected so far, especially Bronson Arroyo. I would be surprised if his ERA is under 4.50 at the end of the year even after his good start. The hitting has been worse than I expected so far, but I think they will heat up and be near the top of the league like they are every year.

I thought the Reds were going to the playoffs before the year started. Still feel that way. Wasn't freaking out.

AtomicDumpling
04-26-2012, 01:30 AM
I thought the Reds were going to the playoffs before the year started. Still feel that way. Wasn't freaking out.

I know you weren't, and most of the people that picked the Reds to do well were not freaking out. I didn't say all the people that picked the Reds to win were freaking out. But most of the people that did freak out happened to pick the Reds to win well over 90 games in Gonelongs W/L thread. There actually were only a few people freaking out in this thread. They were just very vocal and it seemed like a big crowd, but it wasn't.

VR
04-26-2012, 02:19 AM
Pitching coming around.....hitting still absent. I'd much rather prefer that combination than the opposite, as I still am haunted by the dark years of the early 2000s.

No player has 'gone off' yet this year to carry the team for a game, or several games. It will happen....and their foundation in solid pitching will win out over the long haul. I'm diggin it.

GAC
04-26-2012, 05:19 AM
So, are the Reds still in serious trouble? :p

PuffyPig
04-26-2012, 08:21 AM
If you've followed the team carefully, you can tell pretty early. For example, you can tell if a team lacks enough left handed hitting. You can wait until May or June, but all the righties will still be righties.

They had pretty much the same L/R mix last year and still came 2nd in RS in the NL.

edabbs44
04-26-2012, 08:23 AM
So, are the Reds still in serious trouble? :p

http://www.cereal-central.com/wp-content/uploads/super%20cereal%20south%20park.jpg

Kc61
04-26-2012, 09:47 AM
They had pretty much the same L/R mix last year and still came 2nd in RS in the NL.

Check out the Reds team OPS against righties last year.

Johnny Footstool
04-26-2012, 11:03 AM
Check out the Reds team OPS against righties last year.

.717, which ranked 8th out of 16 NL teams. So, middle of the pack.

Kc61
04-26-2012, 11:09 AM
.717, which ranked 8th out of 16 NL teams. So, middle of the pack.

Right, and of course Reds face right handers most of the time. So if the goal is to be a championship team, it's an area that might need improvement, no?

Among other areas.

Most of us never said the sky is falling, but many of us are concerned about the offense, with good reason, and I don't see the need for ridicule over that position.

Keep in mind that last year, when all was said and done, the Reds were a below .500 team that finished third in the Central division. I don't aspire to repeat last year, I'm looking for significant improvement in all aspects of the the ballclub.

Most of the areas now needing improvment are on the offensive side IMO, handedness is one of them, there are others. They have been discussed in detail througout this thread.

WildcatFan
04-26-2012, 11:32 AM
Right, and of course Reds face right handers most of the time. So if the goal is to be a championship team, it's an area that might need improvement, no?

The team's only OPSing .649 against righties this year, but a lot of that comes from 74 REALLY bad at bats from Harris (.306), Valdez (.325), and Rolen (.483). Heisey (.487) is also historically much better against righties (.865 last year).

The other regulars are faring better: Votto (.894), Phillips (.846), Cozart (.808), Bruce (.780), and Stubbs (.740). The catchers are right around .600.

Rolen and Heisey should both improve. Ludwick is at .642, which seems reasonably normal, so he should be primarily facing lefties (.890).

All that to say, while the current OPS against right-handers doesn't look too good, I wouldn't expect it to stay there.

Kc61
04-26-2012, 12:11 PM
The team's only OPSing .649 against righties this year, but a lot of that comes from 74 REALLY bad at bats from Harris (.306), Valdez (.325), and Rolen (.483). Heisey (.487) is also historically much better against righties (.865 last year).

The other regulars are faring better: Votto (.894), Phillips (.846), Cozart (.808), Bruce (.780), and Stubbs (.740). The catchers are right around .600.

Rolen and Heisey should both improve. Ludwick is at .642, which seems reasonably normal, so he should be primarily facing lefties (.890).

All that to say, while the current OPS against right-handers doesn't look too good, I wouldn't expect it to stay there.

There is no reason to expect the Reds to hit righty pitching particularly well. They didn't last season. They haven't so far this season. In 2011, they had a mid-pack OPS against righties while playing at GABP. Righty hitting will improve from now, but I don't see it as a strength.

My other concern about the Reds' offense is the ability to hit in large stadiums. I think the team will have trouble in some of the larger stadiums where the GABP homers are medium fly balls. I would like to see more solid singles and doubles hitters, a few more high contact and high OBP hitters.

The pitching is good so far, the bullpen right now is excellent, I think the team will be superior defensively, so the Reds probably can be a good team (over .500) even with the current offense. It's just that I want better than a good team.

Johnny Footstool
04-26-2012, 01:06 PM
There is no reason to expect the Reds to hit righty pitching particularly well. They didn't last season. They haven't so far this season. In 2011, they had a mid-pack OPS against righties while playing at GABP. Righty hitting will improve from now, but I don't see it as a strength.

My other concern about the Reds' offense is the ability to hit in large stadiums. I think the team will have trouble in some of the larger stadiums where the GABP homers are medium fly balls. I would like to see more solid singles and doubles hitters, a few more high contact and high OBP hitters.

The pitching is good so far, the bullpen right now is excellent, I think the team will be superior defensively, so the Reds probably can be a good team (over .500) even with the current offense. It's just that I want better than a good team.

The point is, even though the were mediocre vs. RHP last season, their *dominance* of lefties (.794) was enough to boost their total OPS to 5th overall, which equals a good offense. Sure, you can find situations in which they didn't perform well -- are there teams that hit exceptionally well in large stadiums on the road? -- but for the most part, if the offense stays on-par with last year's performance, the improved pitching staff will produce a positive run differential, and the W-L record should improve significantly.

Kc61
04-26-2012, 01:18 PM
The point is, even though the were mediocre vs. RHP last season, their *dominance* of lefties (.794) was enough to boost their total OPS to 5th overall, which equals a good offense. Sure, you can find situations in which they didn't perform well -- are there teams that hit exceptionally well in large stadiums on the road? -- but for the most part, if the offense stays on-par with last year's performance, the improved pitching staff will produce a positive run differential, and the W-L record should improve significantly.

I'm just not as comfortable as you that the Reds will make up a 17 game deficit in the Central last year without an improved offense. We'll see.

bucksfan2
04-26-2012, 02:17 PM
I know you weren't, and most of the people that picked the Reds to do well were not freaking out. I didn't say all the people that picked the Reds to win were freaking out. But most of the people that did freak out happened to pick the Reds to win well over 90 games in Gonelongs W/L thread. There actually were only a few people freaking out in this thread. They were just very vocal and it seemed like a big crowd, but it wasn't.

I picked the Reds to win the division, fairly eaisly over the Cards. My concern to start the season was based upon the Cards starting out white hot and the Reds showing some of the similar problems from last year. The start of the season this year is pretty much the "same old song and dance" with the offense as it was last year, hence my concern.

The problems of high strike out totals and inconsistant offensive pieces will be an issue throughout the season with the Reds. Not freaking out just noting a concern going forward this season.

WildcatFan
04-26-2012, 03:25 PM
I'm just not as comfortable as you that the Reds will make up a 17 game deficit in the Central last year without an improved offense. We'll see.

My point above was that the offense is improved. Cozart is a big upgrade. Moving Stubbs out of the leadoff spot is an upgrade. A left field of Heisey/Ludwick is an upgrade over Gomes/Lewis/Heisey. Healthy Rolen over half-season Rolen is an upgrade (I think, we may have to wait and see on that one). The Reds will most likely be near the top of the NL in offense once numbers even out after the opening slump. Add that to the fact that your pitching is significantly improved and the rest of the division is not as strong, and 17 games doesn't seem so daunting. (Plus, 90 wins is a playoff spot, so you're really looking at 11 games.)

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2012, 05:00 PM
I will add this --

I think the Reds would be wise to move a high-velocity pitcher into the closers role. I don't like having someone pitching the 9th who can't hit above 92 on the radar gun.

Sometimes you need to just pull back and fire something by a guy in a tough spot. Sean Marshall can't do that.

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2012, 05:01 PM
I will add this --

I think the Reds would be wise to move a high-velocity pitcher into the closers role. I don't like having someone pitching the 9th who can't hit above 92 on the radar gun.

Who cares that he only throws 90-92? He entered today with an ERA under 3.00, a FIP of 0.69 and a K/9 over 14+ and you are worried about velocity. When a guy K's that many batters I could care less what his velocity is.

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2012, 05:04 PM
Who cares that he only throws 90-92? He entered today with an ERA under 3.00, a FIP of 0.69 and a K/9 over 14+ and you are worried about velocity. When a guy K's that many batters I could care less what his velocity is.

He's still a feel pitcher, and occasionally he just isn't going to have a feel for the curveball.

When that happens, a regular closer can just throw gas and overpower a hitter. If Marshall needs to throw a fastball in a hitters count, he's throwing a very hittable 91 MPH pitch.

Beyond that, as I've said many times, the 9th inning is a different animal. Numbers go out the window, to a certain extent. I want a guy on the mound throwing fire.

Kc61
04-26-2012, 05:07 PM
Who cares that he only throws 90-92? He entered today with an ERA under 3.00, a FIP of 0.69 and a K/9 over 14+ and you are worried about velocity. When a guy K's that many batters I could care less what his velocity is.

Marshall is a terrific pitcher. But it's fair to ask how well he will adapt to closing.

If I'm correct, today was the first time I remember him trying to close two days in a row. And he wasn't as sharp.

He is a lefty curveball specialist, he is an unusual type to close.

We'll see, my guess is it will work out fine, it may take him awhile to adjust. Arredondo has been throwing great, he's another alternative. Or a combo of the two of them.

Brutus
04-26-2012, 05:09 PM
He's still a feel pitcher, and occasionally he just isn't going to have a feel for the curveball.

When that happens, a regular closer can just throw gas and overpower a hitter. If Marshall needs to throw a fastball in a hitters count, he's throwing a very hittable 91 MPH pitch.

Beyond that, as I've said many times, the 9th inning is a different animal. Numbers go out the window, to a certain extent. I want a guy on the mound throwing fire.

There are a lot of hitters that would rather sit dead-red against a pitcher than worry about a steady diet of offspeed stuff.

Throwing fire isn't really that advantageous if you don't have good offspeed to keep hitters off-balance.

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2012, 05:15 PM
There are a lot of hitters that would rather sit dead-red against a pitcher than worry about a steady diet of offspeed stuff.

Throwing fire isn't really that advantageous if you don't have good offspeed to keep hitters off-balance.

It's a lot harder to hang a 96 MPH fastball than a curveball.

*BaseClogger*
04-26-2012, 05:15 PM
There are a lot of hitters that would rather sit dead-red against a pitcher than worry about a steady diet of offspeed stuff.

Throwing fire isn't really that advantageous if you don't have good offspeed to keep hitters off-balance.

Yep.

And just as "feel" pitchers sometimes don't have their best breaking ball, those "fireballers" sometimes don't have command of their fastball and can't get it over for a strike. I don't really see a difference between the two results.

That said, I would like to see Ondrusek or Arrendondo close. Bring in Chapman and Marshall in those tight spots as "relief aces"...

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2012, 05:15 PM
Marshall walked Arias. That's a big no no. But the hit by Theriot was a 38 hopper through the infield, and then of course he clearly struck Angel Pagan out. Hard to get big league hitters out when you have to throw four strikes. Marshall will be fine.

Tom Servo
04-26-2012, 05:17 PM
Yeah I'm not ready to declare Marshall a dud as closer after he blows one save.

Johnny Footstool
04-26-2012, 05:30 PM
It's a lot harder to hang a 96 MPH fastball than a curveball.

I'd argue that it's pretty easy to groove a fastball, and that any MLB hitter can handle a 96 MPH fastball if it's thrown down the middle of the plate.

Kc61
04-26-2012, 05:36 PM
You know, a more significant question may be precisely how Dusty will use Marshall. Tomorrow, if he needs a closer, does he go to him a third consecutive day? Dusty used to do that with Coco all the time, not always for the better.

I would like to see Dusty have a secondary closer, maybe Arredondo, for days like tomorrow. Don't know if I'd mess around with Chappy right now, but Jose threw great the last two days.

I'm a fan of having a secondary closer, a la the former Graves/Williamson tandem of 1999.

I wouldn't like to see Marshall close a third straight day tomorrow, but Dusty tends to do that.

Kc61
04-26-2012, 05:52 PM
I'd argue that it's pretty easy to groove a fastball, and that any MLB hitter can handle a 96 MPH fastball if it's thrown down the middle of the plate.

The Reds once traded John Franco for Randy Myers. They wanted a hard thrower as closer.

Myers helped them win a World Series. Franco had a great career as a Mets closer.

You can take your pick.

*BaseClogger*
04-26-2012, 08:36 PM
You know, a more significant question may be precisely how Dusty will use Marshall. Tomorrow, if he needs a closer, does he go to him a third consecutive day? Dusty used to do that with Coco all the time, not always for the better.

I would like to see Dusty have a secondary closer, maybe Arredondo, for days like tomorrow. Don't know if I'd mess around with Chappy right now, but Jose threw great the last two days.

I'm a fan of having a secondary closer, a la the former Graves/Williamson tandem of 1999.

I wouldn't like to see Marshall close a third straight day tomorrow, but Dusty tends to do that.

You don't want Dusty to pitch Marshall a third consecutive day, so he should pitch Arredondo a third consecutive day? :confused:

Kc61
04-26-2012, 08:42 PM
You don't want Dusty to pitch Marshall a third consecutive day, so he should pitch Arredondo a third consecutive day? :confused:

I don't understand your point. Sorry.

Arredondo had today off.

*BaseClogger*
04-26-2012, 08:44 PM
I don't understand your point. Sorry.

Arredondo had today off.

;)

mth123
04-26-2012, 10:14 PM
.717, which ranked 8th out of 16 NL teams. So, middle of the pack.

In GABP? That's more like 12th or 13th in real terms.

kaldaniels
04-26-2012, 10:54 PM
In GABP? That's more like 12th or 13th in real terms.

Do you move our pitchers up 4 spots in every category?

The Operator
04-26-2012, 10:57 PM
Do you move our pitchers up 4 spots in every category?Nope, park factors only play a role when they can be used to criticize the team. :p

mth123
04-26-2012, 11:00 PM
Do you move our pitchers up 4 spots in every category?

Sure. I've said many times that if this team can finsih in the middle of the pack in pitching, its pretty darned good given the park and division where they play.

Johnny Footstool
04-27-2012, 01:28 AM
In GABP? That's more like 12th or 13th in real terms.

They play 82 games in GAB every year. You can't discount that.

Also, they were 3rd in the NL in road OPS last year, and 4th in home OPS.

AtomicDumpling
04-27-2012, 03:19 AM
Great American Ballpark has an essentially neutral park factor over the last three years. The park boosts home runs but suppresses everything else (singles, doubles, triples, walks).

GABP's park factor was 8th in 2011, tied for 12th in 2010 and 18th in 2009. The 3-year average park factor for GABP is 1.021, which is far below the 1.319 for Coors Field and far less than the factors for Yankee Stadium, Rangers Ballpark, Chase Field and some other true hitters' parks.

Cincinnati is not a hitters paradise despite the popular impression. The park slightly favors hitters (especially home run hitters), but has very little effect on run scoring. There are several other parks that favor hitters much more strongly than GABP.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2011

^^ Link goes to the ESPN charts for park factors by year.

Homer Bailey
04-27-2012, 10:55 AM
Great American Ballpark has an essentially neutral park factor over the last three years. The park boosts home runs but suppresses everything else (singles, doubles, triples, walks).

GABP's park factor was 8th in 2011, tied for 12th in 2010 and 18th in 2009. The 3-year average park factor for GABP is 1.021, which is far below the 1.319 for Coors Field and far less than the factors for Yankee Stadium, Rangers Ballpark, Chase Field and some other true hitters' parks.

Cincinnati is not a hitters paradise despite the popular impression. The park slightly favors hitters (especially home run hitters), but has very little effect on run scoring. There are several other parks that favor hitters much more strongly than GABP.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2011

^^ Link goes to the ESPN charts for park factors by year.

Nice post AD.

Kc61
04-27-2012, 11:41 AM
The subject of GABP's influence deserves a thread of its own, I think it's complicated. Clearly the park factor numbers show what they show. The stadium favors homers, suppresses doubles dramatically, suppresses other hits. I don't disagree that overall it is only slightly in the hitters' favor.

How we get there, though, is interesting because the stadium is not "fair" accross the board. It favors long balls for hitters, disfavors other hits. The question it presents is how such a configuration affects Reds pitchers and hitters ON THE ROAD and overall.

My theory has always been that Reds hitters and pitchers formulate habits at GABP which can adversely impact them on the road. Last season, Reds hitters were .756 OPS at home, .713 on the road. The pitchers didn't have this large a difference, basically a similar OPS allowed home and road.

When I watch a player like Jay Bruce, I see a swing that is extremely GABP friendly. Upper cut. Seems to be aiming for the short fence. Low line drive rate, high fly ball rate. Lifetime, Jay has a .900 OPS at home, a .710 OPS on the road. I wonder how much influence GABP has had on Jay's swing. I wonder if Jay would be a better all around hitter if he had been trained in a different stadium.

Brandond Phillips, lifetime .791 OPS at home, .721 away. Similar issue.

I don't know if GABP has quite the same impact on pitchers. But looking at Bronson Arroyo's 2011 is interesting. Many more homers allowed at home. Worse slugging percentage allowed at home. But OBP was much worse on the road. For Bronson, in admittedly an unusually bad year, his OPS against was pretty close home and on the road - he got there in very different ways.

Sorry for this diversion. But I think mth has a point that GABP has a big influence on hitters and pitchers. For some players, and on balance, it probably neutralizes. For others, it probably distorts their results one way or the other.

traderumor
04-27-2012, 11:49 AM
Great American Ballpark has an essentially neutral park factor over the last three years. The park boosts home runs but suppresses everything else (singles, doubles, triples, walks).

GABP's park factor was 8th in 2011, tied for 12th in 2010 and 18th in 2009. The 3-year average park factor for GABP is 1.021, which is far below the 1.319 for Coors Field and far less than the factors for Yankee Stadium, Rangers Ballpark, Chase Field and some other true hitters' parks.

Cincinnati is not a hitters paradise despite the popular impression. The park slightly favors hitters (especially home run hitters), but has very little effect on run scoring. There are several other parks that favor hitters much more strongly than GABP.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2011

^^ Link goes to the ESPN charts for park factors by year.

Yet it still is referred to derisively as "Great American Smallpark." I've been saying this same thing just from observation, thanks for the data to back up what I've been seeing.

RedsManRick
04-27-2012, 11:54 AM
Across the NL collectively last year, there was a home/road split of 45 points of OPS (718 vs. 673). We need to remember that our baseline of whether or not the Reds are special is not zero. The Reds 43 point split was actually slightly below average.

Interestingly, a good part of that split was due to a 12 point swing in BABIP -- .296 at home for hitters, .284 on the road. This accounts for more than half of that observed swing.

We can craft stories around anecdotes all day. But the reality is that, on balance, GABP isn't especially influential.

Johnny Footstool
04-27-2012, 12:00 PM
Most teams hit worse on the road. As I pointed out earlier, the Reds .713 road OPS ranked third in the NL last season.

Kc61
04-27-2012, 12:16 PM
Across the NL collectively last year, there was a home/road split of 45 points of OPS (718 vs. 673). We need to remember that our baseline of whether or not the Reds are special is not zero. The Reds 43 point split was actually slightly below average.

Interestingly, a good part of that split was due to a 12 point swing in BABIP -- .296 at home for hitters, .284 on the road. This accounts for more than half of that observed swing.

We can craft stories around anecdotes all day. But the reality is that, on balance, GABP isn't especially influential.

Even putting aside the derisive tone and content of your last paragraph, which was unnecessary since nobody is "crafting stories around anecdotes," it's impossible for me to agree that GABP isn't especially influential.

It's easy to say, well, everything just evens out. But I think that is a bit too simplistic. Any stadium which allows "cheap home runs" has an impact as do stadiums (like San Diego, for example) where it is so difficult to hit a homer.

I think the impact is complex, affects different hitters and pitchers in different ways, and may "even out" in a particular year, may not even out other times.

For the Reds, it presents a dilemma because the type of hitter who will succeed at GABP may not succeed in a place like San Diego. Jay Bruce's swing makes it far more likely he will succeed at home.

To some extent this has always been a part of baseball. Yankee Stadium, for example, has always catered to lefty hitters with moderate power who can aim at the short right field porch. And every iteration of the Stadium continues that formation.

Bottom line is that, because of these issues, teams have to take care in formulating a roster to favor the home ballpark but not so much as to become ineffective on the road. Tough balance.

RANDY IN INDY
04-27-2012, 01:59 PM
Even putting aside the derisive tone and content of your last paragraph, which was unnecessary since nobody is "crafting stories around anecdotes," it's impossible for me to agree that GABP isn't especially influential.

It's easy to say, well, everything just evens out. But I think that is a bit too simplistic. Any stadium which allows "cheap home runs" has an impact as do stadiums (like San Diego, for example) where it is so difficult to hit a homer.

I think the impact is complex, affects different hitters and pitchers in different ways, and may "even out" in a particular year, may not even out other times.

For the Reds, it presents a dilemma because the type of hitter who will succeed at GABP may not succeed in a place like San Diego. Jay Bruce's swing makes it far more likely he will succeed at home.

To some extent this has always been a part of baseball. Yankee Stadium, for example, has always catered to lefty hitters with moderate power who can aim at the short right field porch. And every iteration of the Stadium continues that formation.

Bottom line is that, because of these issues, teams have to take care in formulating a roster to favor the home ballpark but not so much as to become ineffective on the road. Tough balance.

Now that is too simple and makes too much sense.:beerme:

jojo
04-27-2012, 02:12 PM
Across the NL collectively last year, there was a home/road split of 45 points of OPS (718 vs. 673). We need to remember that our baseline of whether or not the Reds are special is not zero. The Reds 43 point split was actually slightly below average.

Interestingly, a good part of that split was due to a 12 point swing in BABIP -- .296 at home for hitters, .284 on the road. This accounts for more than half of that observed swing.

We can craft stories around anecdotes all day. But the reality is that, on balance, GABP isn't especially influential.

From a pitcher's standpoint, it can be influential. A flyball pitcher probably is going to get selectively dinged.

vaticanplum
04-27-2012, 03:01 PM
Great American Ballpark has an essentially neutral park factor over the last three years. The park boosts home runs but suppresses everything else (singles, doubles, triples, walks).

I feel like I must be missing something obvious, but how does it suppress walks? Does it have to do with less foul territory in the park? Hitters' predilection to swing for the fences in homer-friendly parks? The latter seems hard to quantify, and both seem like they would be pretty negligible. What am I missing?

Kc61
04-27-2012, 03:01 PM
There's a website called parkfactors.com that lists GABP as the 5th-6th best hitters park in baseball, tied with Camden Yards over the period 2008-2011. So while it's not the worst park for pitchers, it is not quite as neutral as some might argue.

Park factor for Coors over that period is 132. Yankee Stadium 120. GABP 112. MIller Park 105. Turner Field 95. Busch Stadium 84. Petco 81.

jojo
04-27-2012, 03:17 PM
There's a website called parkfactors.com that lists GABP as the 5th-6th best hitters park in baseball, tied with Camden Yards over the period 2008-2011. So while it's not the worst park for pitchers, it is not quite as neutral as some might argue.

Park factor for Coors over that period is 132. Yankee Stadium 120. GABP 112. MIller Park 105. Turner Field 95. Busch Stadium 84. Petco 81.

As your post points out, there are several different ways to derive park factors and they will differ between sites. It's been a while since I've thought about park factors, but I tend to ignore ESPN's and tend to default to BR.com's.... But I get why someone would default to a more user friendly website.

Also, park factors should really be considered a rough justice measure. For instance Safeco is generally considered one of the top five toughest places to hit but it really only stunts righthanded pull hitters given the spacious leftfield and left-center gap coupled with the winds from the Puget Sound. Lefties don't face the same issues.

So there really is a long way to go concerning park factors.

Raisor
04-28-2012, 07:55 PM
So, are we still complaining about Jay Bruce?

dougdirt
04-28-2012, 07:57 PM
So, are we still complaining about Jay Bruce?

Yes. Haven't you read the sundeck lately?

Larkin Fan
04-28-2012, 08:04 PM
So, are we still complaining about Jay Bruce?

When is he going to start hitting?

RANDY IN INDY
04-28-2012, 08:10 PM
I don't see a lot different. He's hot right now. When he's hot, he can carry you for a while. His cold spells are usually as cold as the hot ones are hot. Not complainin' but that is the way he usually trends. When and if he gets consistent, you will have a monster.

Kc61
04-28-2012, 08:18 PM
So, are we still complaining about Jay Bruce?

I've concluded that Bruce is truly one of the best GABP hitters we've seen.

Let's talk again when he does it on the road.

edabbs44
04-28-2012, 08:38 PM
So, are we still complaining about Jay Bruce?

That statement is probably as off the mark as one which is complaining about him.

vaticanplum
04-28-2012, 09:57 PM
I feel like I must be missing something obvious, but how does it suppress walks? Does it have to do with less foul territory in the park? Hitters' predilection to swing for the fences in homer-friendly parks? The latter seems hard to quantify, and both seem like they would be pretty negligible. What am I missing?

Hey, anybody going to help me out here?

mth123
04-28-2012, 10:02 PM
Hey, anybody going to help me out here?

I'm with you, if anything the threat of the HR would probably cause guys to nibble and create more walks. My only theory would be guys are swinging away trying to shoot for the cheap HR.

I'm not a big believer in the ESPN stat. Others show GABP to be a hitter's paradise.

dougdirt
04-28-2012, 10:29 PM
I'm with you, if anything the threat of the HR would probably cause guys to nibble and create more walks. My only theory would be guys are swinging away trying to shoot for the cheap HR.

I'm not a big believer in the ESPN stat. Others show GABP to be a hitter's paradise.

Hitters paradise or RUN paradise? There is a big difference. I haven't seen any park factor that shows GABP to be a hitters paradise. The only thing I have ever seen that it does is produce more home runs. From everything I have seen it has hurt singles, doubles and triples every year.

Ghosts of 1990
04-28-2012, 11:36 PM
I don't see a lot different. He's hot right now. When he's hot, he can carry you for a while. His cold spells are usually as cold as the hot ones are hot. Not complainin' but that is the way he usually trends. When and if he gets consistent, you will have a monster.

This. And the posters here know exactly what we are talking about.

That was a bomb today!

AtomicDumpling
04-29-2012, 05:43 AM
I feel like I must be missing something obvious, but how does it suppress walks? Does it have to do with less foul territory in the park? Hitters' predilection to swing for the fences in homer-friendly parks? The latter seems hard to quantify, and both seem like they would be pretty negligible. What am I missing?

I think it is because pitchers know they cannot afford to walk hitters in GABP, because if they do walk someone it is more likely he will come around to score than in larger ballparks. In San Diego or Oakland you can afford to pitch around the other team's good hitters because the large dimensions of the field make it less likely the next guy is going to hit a two-run bomb. Here in Cincy if you start walking people you can find yourself way behind real fast.

jojo
04-29-2012, 11:45 AM
I feel like I must be missing something obvious, but how does it suppress walks? Does it have to do with less foul territory in the park? Hitters' predilection to swing for the fences in homer-friendly parks? The latter seems hard to quantify, and both seem like they would be pretty negligible. What am I missing?

Great question-these are the kinds of things that make the ORG so great IMHO.

When thinking about this last night, several intriguing possibles came to mind. But the first test is always to make sure we're not chasing ghosts (i.e. eliminate the possibility of randomness or at least see if the available stats are sensitive enough to see an effect given the inherent noise).

Here's ESPN's park factors for every season of GABP's existence (2003-2009; 2012 was omitted because the sample size is so small it's just noise):



Season Rank Park RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
2003 14 GABP 0.992 1.222 0.998 1.038 0.289 0.941
2004 27 GABP 0.847 1.048 0.89 0.864 0.538 0.883
2005 4 GABP 1.125 1.246 1.064 1.183 0.536 0.958
2006 1 GABP 1.153 1.275 1.026 0.929 0.4 1.065
2007 7 GABP 1.095 1.351 0.971 1.051 0.815 1.036
2008 7 GABP 1.069 1.23 1.01 1.017 1.038 1.013
2009 18 GABP 0.975 1.176 0.995 1.018 1.087 1.037
2010 T12 GABP 1.007 1.136 1.023 0.935 1 1.015
2011 8 GABP 1.082 1.314 0.99 0.853 0.704 0.914
mean 1.04 1.22 1.00 0.99 0.71 0.98
STDEV 0.09 0.09 0.05 0.10 0.27 0.06


Here's the "three-year" picture:



Season Rank Park RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
2009 18 GABP 0.975 1.176 0.995 1.018 1.087 1.037
2010 T12 GABP 1.007 1.136 1.023 0.935 1 1.015
2011 8 GABP 1.082 1.314 0.99 0.853 0.704 0.914
mean 1.02 1.21 1.00 0.94 0.93 0.99
STDEV 0.04 0.08 0.01 0.07 0.16 0.05


The ESPN treatment of park factors suggests that the environment at GABP doesn't actually suppress walks. Walk rates in GABP have favored the hitter in more years than they've favored the pitcher and overall the rolling average isn't statistically different than "neutral". These numbers suggest that, throughout it's history, GABP plays roughly neutral with a slight tendency to be a run scoring environment due to the balance between a promotion of home runs and a tendency to suppress triples.

As a caveat though, park factors are just rough justice so this shouldn't be regarded as a final answer that ends the conversation. For instance, it would not surprise me if there have been fewer intentional walks issued at GABP than would be expected based upon league averages given GABP's homerun tendencies. IBB are relatively rare however and largely influenced by randomness (i.e. a manager prone to issue one may or may not even be presented with the opportunity during a three game set).

Given the low resolution of Park Factors, I'm comfortable with the notion that GABP really isn't suppressing walks- at least not to a degree that effects the style of the game dramatically. Or maybe, I'm too lazy to dig deeper because the rough justice peek at the issue suggests the pain may not be worth the gain.

Kc61
04-29-2012, 11:48 AM
I think it is because pitchers know they cannot afford to walk hitters in GABP, because if they do walk someone it is more likely he will come around to score than in larger ballparks. In San Diego or Oakland you can afford to pitch around the other team's good hitters because the large dimensions of the field make it less likely the next guy is going to hit a two-run bomb. Here in Cincy if you start walking people you can find yourself way behind real fast.

But some have said GABP is ultimately neutral. Why then would pitchers be afraid to walk people? If on balance GABP is neutral, presumably pitchers know that, and there would be no reason to suppress walks more than in any other neutral stadium.

I don't think GABP is neutral, I think pitchers approach GABP as a hitters park, and that may cause suppression of walks. I also wonder if the Reds' lineup contributes to the suppression of walks idea. The team generally doesn't walk that much.

This year, GABP is not suppressing walks to Joey Votto who is walking at 20 percent clip.

Johnny Footstool
04-29-2012, 03:00 PM
I also wonder if the Reds' lineup contributes to the suppression of walks idea. The team generally doesn't walk that much.



http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2011/league/nl/sort/walks/type/expanded/order/true

6th overall last season, only 7 walks behind the third-ranked Cards and Marlins.

dougdirt
04-29-2012, 03:06 PM
I also wonder if the Reds' lineup contributes to the suppression of walks idea.

This year, GABP is not suppressing walks to Joey Votto who is walking at 20 percent clip.

That isn't how park factors work.

They compare how everyone does in one park, versus how they do in others. So players that play in a home park won't really cause park effects.

757690
05-05-2012, 05:21 AM
Doesn't really mean much, but if the season were to end today, the Reds would make the playoffs as the second wildcard team.

kbrake
05-05-2012, 08:19 AM
I think this team still has major issues but maybe it can be overcome by the division they play in. This division is really really bad.

buckeyenut
05-05-2012, 09:42 AM
Doesn't really mean much, but if the season were to end today, the Reds would make the playoffs as the second wildcard team.

This is important to note. This team has not played well at all. Not a single bat, with the exception of Bruce (and maybe Cozart/Mesorasco) is better than we would have expected and most are far worse. The numbers out of the leadoff spot are insanely bad.

Leake, Latos and Marshall have all started off very poorly. We can look at the pitching positives of Arroyo, Cueto and an OUTSTANDING pen as surprises. But Cueto did it last year and Chapman/Ondrusek were both expected to do well (not 0.00 ERA well, but well).

All in all, this team is underperforming and yet we are positioned to make the playoffs. If a few of these folks can turn it around a little, I think we can catch STL without a problem. And given the offseason, I would venture to say we have money to play with at the deadline for a rental that would help. All our big moves this offseason, I don't believe any of them really added any money to our payroll for THIS year. Imagine adding that leadoff or cleanup hitter we are missing come July.

traderumor
05-05-2012, 01:27 PM
I think this team still has major issues but maybe it can be overcome by the division they play in. This division is really really bad.Its kind of hard to bang that drum right now. The Astros nearly took 2 of 3 from the Reds, swept the Mets, and beat the Cards last night. They have a +15 run diff. I'm sure they'll fall off a cliff and win 70-75 games, but they were considered a laughingstock in the offseason, yet they have some intriguing young talent. Their bullpen will kill them though. But there were some who couldn't see them winning 60 games this year.

The Cubs were underestimated a bit I think also. Their rotation can make them pesky to beat. They almost swept us, we were fortunate to win 2 of 3 in Wrigley , they also took 2 of 3 from the Cards.

The Pirates still seem to be the Pirates, but they were considered by many to perhaps be approaching the .500 mark. I don't think there is quite as much disparity on the field as was considered on paper.

Tom Servo
05-05-2012, 01:48 PM
Yeah I think the Astros are poised to surprise some people with their competency.

reds44
05-05-2012, 03:07 PM
Reds are 2.5 games out of first.

jojo
05-05-2012, 03:08 PM
Reds are 2.5 games out of first.

But there is only 137 games left to go. ;)

DGullett35
05-05-2012, 03:18 PM
More importantly is we are 9-4 in our last 13 games. Seems to me that this team is starting to take off a bit. Also it seems like we started playing better offensively after Cozart was moved into the leadoff spot which is amazing considering the Reds are getting a sub .200 OBP from the leadoff spot. Last night was the best at-bats I have seen from this team all year. After the first inning it seems like everyone was making Correia(sp.?) work.

RedlegJake
05-05-2012, 04:00 PM
I think its very important to note that almost everyone recognizes that most of the team, especially offensively, is underperforming their capabilities and yet they aren't getting blown away in the standings or in many games either. I'd say the starting has been pretty fair ioverall and Latos, Bailey and Leake haven't pitched that well at all. Certainly not the level I expect from them. The bullpen is the only part of the team that might be outperforming. It's not time to jump off a cliff but I think this offense does need a tweak and expect it to happen sooner or later. Maybe that's giving Costanza a shot, or making a trade. Not a huge deal, but something like the Costanza trial would be - a shot at adding a better quality bat to fill a role better than what is available to Baker now.

dougdirt
05-05-2012, 04:12 PM
I think its very important to note that almost everyone recognizes that most of the team, especially offensively, is underperforming their capabilities and yet they aren't getting blown away in the standings or in many games either. I'd say the starting has been pretty fair ioverall and Latos, Bailey and Leake haven't pitched that well at all. Certainly not the level I expect from them. The bullpen is the only part of the team that might be outperforming. It's not time to jump off a cliff but I think this offense does need a tweak and expect it to happen sooner or later. Maybe that's giving Costanza a shot, or making a trade. Not a huge deal, but something like the Costanza trial would be - a shot at adding a better quality bat to fill a role better than what is available to Baker now.

Bailey has a quality start in 80% of his starts this year and an ERA under 3.80.... What did you expect from him?

Nasty_Boy
05-05-2012, 04:12 PM
More importantly is we are 9-4 in our last 13 games. Seems to me that this team is starting to take off a bit. Also it seems like we started playing better offensively after Cozart was moved into the leadoff spot which is amazing considering the Reds are getting a sub .200 OBP from the leadoff spot. Last night was the best at-bats I have seen from this team all year. After the first inning it seems like everyone was making Correia(sp.?) work.


The cleanup spot has been nearly as terrible as the leadoff spot, especially when you have a clear choice to fix the 4 spot. It really amazes me that pitchers give Votto or Bruce anything to hit.

I agree though, things seem to be getting better... although there are some glaring offensive holes, and line up issues. The Reds need someone beside Jay and Joey to start swinging the bat.

RedlegJake
05-05-2012, 04:29 PM
Bailey has a quality start in 80% of his starts this year and an ERA under 3.80.... What did you expect from him?

Doug, I looked up Bailey's numbers and you're right! I had a much worse impression from his starts than reality I guess. Maybe that means that he'll get even better?!:confused:

Vottomatic
05-05-2012, 04:35 PM
Positives:
Arroyo, Cueto
Bailey seems a bit better
Latos career sucks in April, great from that point on
Bullpen
Bruce

Negatives:
Offense really hasn't started yet, except maybe lately
Leake
Cardinals look invincible

Agree about Cubs rotation being better than people think. Dempster, Samardjia, and that other guy I can't think of.

I think this division will be tighter than people think. But I'm encouraged that the Reds really aren't playing their best ball, and Votto really hasn't taken off. Pitching is surprisingly better.

Still question marks and those stupid Dusty lineups that make me scratch my head.

_Sir_Charles_
05-05-2012, 05:37 PM
Positives:
Arroyo, Cueto
Bailey seems a bit better
Latos career sucks in April, great from that point on
Bullpen
Bruce

Negatives:
Offense really hasn't started yet, except maybe lately
Leake
Cardinals look invincible

Agree about Cubs rotation being better than people think. Dempster, Samardjia, and that other guy I can't think of.

I think this division will be tighter than people think. But I'm encouraged that the Reds really aren't playing their best ball, and Votto really hasn't taken off. Pitching is surprisingly better.

Still question marks and those stupid Dusty lineups that make me scratch my head.

Now see, I'd look at this in almost the opposite way. The Cards look invincible, yes. But that just means they're going to be crashing back down to earth. Same can be said for the Reds offense. We're in second place, 1 game above .500 and we are doing it without the offense functioning even close to it's norm. I look at those 2 things and see a positive going forward.

elfmanvt07
05-05-2012, 05:44 PM
Now see, I'd look at this in almost the opposite way. The Cards look invincible, yes. But that just means they're going to be crashing back down to earth. Same can be said for the Reds offense. We're in second place, 1 game above .500 and we are doing it without the offense functioning even close to it's norm. I look at those 2 things and see a positive going forward.

My thoughts exactly. I think we will normalize up and the Cards will normalize down.

DGullett35
05-05-2012, 05:49 PM
I think as long as the Cards are healthy that their offense will continue to produce. However no way does Westbrook, Lohse, and Lynn keep up what there currently doing. I feel the Reds and Cards are going to battle all summer long. This Reds bullpen has to be the best in the NL and that alone will keep us in alot of close games barring they get burnt out by August, which currently isn't happening because our starters are doing a good job going into the later innings.

mth123
05-05-2012, 06:04 PM
The Reds have hit the easy part of the schedule and I hope they make some hay right now. If they can get to June in good position, perhaps they can pick up a lefty bat to add some punch against RHP. If they do, I think they take the division. If the rotation stays healthy, Latos get's right as he has in prior seasons as the year advances and Masset and Bray come back, I think they can do damage in the post season. But, the Reds need that bat who can play LF. Another bat would allow the team to get by with defense first guys like Rolen and Stubbs. I think Mesoraco and Phillips might be enough from the right side because even the offensive questions like Rolen, Stubbs and Hanigan hit well against LHP. When the competition strengthens, I don't think a line-up featuring Rolen, Stubbs and the current LF group will be good enough. Cozart, Phillips and the catchers are fine role players, but they need at least one guy from those other spots to lengthen this line-up against RHP.

I think the Reds should start looking for ways to get Hanigan and Mesoraco in the line-up at the same time. IMO, they are 2 of the top 6 position players on the roster (with Votto, Bruce, Phillips and Cozart). The Reds should give Mes an OF glove and let him play out there on at least half the days when Hanigan catches (say twice per week).

_Sir_Charles_
05-05-2012, 06:17 PM
I think as long as the Cards are healthy that their offense will continue to produce. However no way does Westbrook, Lohse, and Lynn keep up what there currently doing. I feel the Reds and Cards are going to battle all summer long. This Reds bullpen has to be the best in the NL and that alone will keep us in alot of close games barring they get burnt out by August, which currently isn't happening because our starters are doing a good job going into the later innings.

I agree that the 3 starters come back down to earth with a resounding THUD. But the offense, it's not going to keep that up either.

Jon Jay .414/.468/.529/.996
Rafael Furcal .333/.398/.476/.874
David Freese .326/.381/.573/.954
Yadier Molina .311/.364/.556/.919

No way these guys keep this up. None.

Homer Bailey
07-26-2012, 01:06 AM
I'm not necessarily a total optimist when it comes to this season, but goodness gracious I have a feeling there is going to be some downright hilarious reading material in July when looking back at April.

Let that sink in for a second. We're still three months from when teams usually throw in the towel and people are talking about managers being fired, general managers not getting the job done, players needing to go, etc.

For crying out loud we're 7% of the way into the season. It's barely even far enough in to have any kind of decent sample size let alone be making definitive judgments.

When the season began, I thought this team would be a good pitching staff (even without Madson) and about an average offense with above-average defense. If the offensive players were even hitting their career averages right now, the Reds would be in first place or a game or two back and there would be absolutely no one worrying in the slightest. And that's without the starting pitchers really pitching to their ability.

The point here is this won't keep up. While the offense might have some holes, it's not going to be prolifically bad. The conclusions are reaching an all-time high (or low) for ridiculousness right now. Like I said... let's revisit this in July. I tend to think this will be a whole different picture.

:)

Brutus
07-26-2012, 01:09 AM
:)

What prize do I win, Homer? lol

Homer Bailey
07-26-2012, 01:15 AM
What prize do I win, Homer? lol

You get to re-read this thread, haha.

The most fun part to re-read is all the positive people that kept their heads two weeks into the season.

Brutus
07-26-2012, 01:19 AM
More whistling past the graveyard ...

Asteroid??? What asteroid?

Indeed.

Homer Bailey
07-26-2012, 01:26 AM
Indeed.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lgd14ezQQj1qfeqsqo1_r1_400.gif

marcshoe
07-26-2012, 01:41 AM
I haven't gone back and read the earlier posts, but I'm assuming this thread has something to do with unreturned library books.