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View Full Version : Bobby Abreu anyone?



Will M
04-27-2012, 11:54 PM
he has been released by the Angels

Tom Servo
04-28-2012, 12:34 AM
Ehhh, there's a reason they released him.

mth123
04-28-2012, 01:45 AM
Yes. Pick him up. Has to be a better LH than Willie.

kheidg-
04-28-2012, 10:29 AM
Yes. Pick him up. Has to be a better LH than Willie.

I'd be all over picking him up and giving Ludwick the pink slip.

redsfan30
04-28-2012, 10:33 AM
I'd be all over picking him up and giving Ludwick the pink slip.

You'd seriously rather keep Willie Harris and show Ryan Ludwick the door??

Griffey012
04-28-2012, 10:35 AM
I would go for it. He still gets on base at a high clip, just 2 years ago he was a pretty good player. He lost his power last year, not sure why, the scouts could probably help with that question. His defense has been below average, but not terrible.

mth123
04-28-2012, 10:40 AM
I'd be all over picking him up and giving Ludwick the pink slip.

Personally, I wouldn't pink slip Ludwick. I think he's needed and helpful for the mix. I'd sooner send Heisey to AAA. Heisey has been brutal on both offense and defense. I'd let him play every day for a couple of weeks in AAA and then bring him back and DFA Harris.

If I had to rank the position players from 1 to 14, I'd probably go Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Hanigan, Cozart, Mesoraco, Ludwick, Rolen, Cairo, Frazier, Stubbs, Heisey, Valdez, Harris. Abreu would probably slot in somewhere around where Stubbs and Heisey are.

Abreu is not a savior, but he's an upgrade as far as bench lefty bats go and GABP may help him bump his power. His defense is probably too far gone for him to take over on any kind of regular basis or even platoon in LF, but he could spot out there a couple days a week and provide a better bench threat.

RANDY IN INDY
04-28-2012, 11:40 AM
Abreu would be a good gamble for the Reds.

OldXOhio
04-28-2012, 12:06 PM
Abreu would be a good gamble for the Reds.

Would Abreu accept a PH / back up role with the Reds? Wasn't part of the problem with LAA his frustration with his playing time?

RANDY IN INDY
04-28-2012, 12:21 PM
Don't know. I think, from the Reds perspective, is, could they live with his defense. I think he would hit, and could be replaced in late innings for defense. Then you have a "what to do with Heisey and Ludwick," scenario. Could be a little complicated.

mth123
04-28-2012, 12:54 PM
Would Abreu accept a PH / back up role with the Reds? Wasn't part of the problem with LAA his frustration with his playing time?

The word is that he was coming around to that role, but Bourjos wasn't hitting and they needed a spot for Trout, so Abreu goes.

Vottomatic
04-28-2012, 01:04 PM
Well, I don't know how much he's declined, but he was one of my favorite players for a long, long time cause all he did was hit.

I'd like to know what the scouts say about his decline, but I'd be interested in picking him up since the Angels pay his big check.

Heisey probably needs a stint at triple A. I would not cut Ludwick. I think he hasn't been any worse than the rest of the hitters, and he's had a few big hits.

Harris should be on the hotseat at this point.

kheidg-
04-28-2012, 01:41 PM
You'd seriously rather keep Willie Harris and show Ryan Ludwick the door??

I really think they both should go.

I haven't been impressed with Ludwick one bit. His defense hasn't been as advertised, he lost one game all by himself with his Jose Canseco-esque play. Todd Frazier could probably play as good of defense in LF as he has. Not to mention his hitting... he has had 1 good season in his entire career and struggled mightily the last two. It's not that he hasn't been given at bats.

Heisey has struggled as well, but is still young and plays better defense.

powersackers
04-28-2012, 01:53 PM
What would he cost us?

Less versatile than Harris, but much more presence at the plate. Not sure it's the trade off we need right now with Cairo out and Phillips gimpy.

mth123
04-28-2012, 01:58 PM
What would he cost us?

Less versatile than Harris, but much more presence at the plate. Not sure it's the trade off we need right now with Cairo out and Phillips gimpy.

It's why you send Heisey down for a couple weeks to get going. Keep Harris until Cairo comes back and Phillips is better. Then bring a rejuvinated Heisey back and cut Harris loose.

Kc61
04-28-2012, 04:13 PM
Right now I dislike the Reds' offense so much I would favor acquiring Pete Rose if MLB would let him play.

If Abreau has something left he's worth a try. He can have a locker near Votto. They can have exclusive, private discussions about hitting line drives, going to the opposite field, consistent contact, having a reasonable K/BB rate. Nobody else would be a likely contributor to the discussion. Rolen could join once in a while.

Rant over, you may continue discussing Abreau.

RANDY IN INDY
04-28-2012, 04:24 PM
I really think they both should go.

I haven't been impressed with Ludwick one bit. His defense hasn't been as advertised, he lost one game all by himself with his Jose Canseco-esque play. Todd Frazier could probably play as good of defense in LF as he has. Not to mention his hitting... he has had 1 good season in his entire career and struggled mightily the last two. It's not that he hasn't been given at bats.

Heisey has struggled as well, but is still young and plays better defense.

I've been pleasantly pleased with Ludwick's defense.

RANDY IN INDY
04-28-2012, 04:25 PM
It's why you send Heisey down for a couple weeks to get going. Keep Harris until Cairo comes back and Phillips is better. Then bring a rejuvinated Heisey back and cut Harris loose.

:beerme:

powersackers
04-28-2012, 04:33 PM
I've been pleasantly pleased with Ludwick's defense.

And he's third on the team in slugging and RBI. Not sure Ryan is much of a problem myself.

Kc61
04-28-2012, 05:11 PM
And he's third on the team in slugging and RBI. Not sure Ryan is much of a problem myself.

Ludwick has a .204 BA and a .283 OBP. If that's ok, then our standards are too low.

RANDY IN INDY
04-28-2012, 05:23 PM
Ludwick has a .204 BA and a .283 OBP. If that's ok, then our standards are too low.

if you are going to use that standard, there are plenty of others on the team at this point that would fall into the not OK category. Those numbers can go up and down in a hurry at this time of year.

Kc61
04-28-2012, 05:43 PM
if you are going to use that standard, there are plenty of others on the team at this point that would fall into the not OK category. Those numbers can go up and down in a hurry at this time of year.

We were discussing Ludwick's CURRENT numbers. It was said his RBI and SLG numbers are good so far. I pointed out that his OBP and BA numbers aren't good. Now. Today.

Yes, it is April and everyone's numbers can change.

*BaseClogger*
04-28-2012, 06:46 PM
If Bobby Abreu were to join the club, he would become the best leadoff candidate on the team, IMO...

mth123
04-28-2012, 06:48 PM
If Bobby Abreu were to join the club, he would become the best leadoff candidate on the team, IMO...

Funny, I was just thinking that on the road I'd lead him off in CF and pull him for defense after the Red's bat in the first inning.

jojo
04-28-2012, 06:51 PM
Abreu would be a decent option for DH in inter league play.

*BaseClogger*
04-28-2012, 06:52 PM
Funny, I was just thinking that on the road I'd lead him off in CF and pull him for defense after the Red's bat in the first inning.

Why on the road?

mth123
04-28-2012, 06:54 PM
Why on the road?

Reds bat first. He wouldn't step on the field for defense.

*BaseClogger*
04-28-2012, 07:02 PM
Reds bat first. He wouldn't step on the field for defense.

Wow, my second brain fart in the last three days. Thought I read later in the game... :redface:

mdccclxix
04-30-2012, 07:11 PM
VS RHP

Abreu L
Coz R
Votto L
BP R
Bruce L
Rolen R
Stubbs R
C

VS LHP

Stubbs
Coz
Votto
BP
Bruce
Rolen
Frazier

M2
05-01-2012, 05:17 PM
If you subscribe to the notion that defenses play as a unit, then the Reds have the gloves to afford a little goofiness in LF. Improving the .186 OB in the leadoff spot would go a long way in terms of scoring runs.

pahster
05-01-2012, 05:21 PM
If you subscribe to the notion that defenses play as a unit, then the Reds have the gloves to afford a little goofiness in LF. Improving the .186 OB in the leadoff spot would go a long way in terms of scoring runs.

I'm all for bringing in someone who can get on base at a high rate, but is that person Abreu? He's 38; I can't imagine he's got much left in the tank.

jojo
05-01-2012, 05:39 PM
The Reds defense has been below average thus far this season and their best defensive middle defender is gimpy. I'm not a fan of making the defense worse unless there is a guaranteed substantial upgrade offensively.

M2
05-01-2012, 05:48 PM
I'm all for bringing in someone who can get on base at a high rate, but is that person Abreu? He's 38; I can't imagine he's got much left in the tank.

Don't know how much he's got left. He was .259/.366/.400 vs. RHPs last year and .267/.377/.478 the season before. If he can deliver something in that range, I wouldn't complain.

M2
05-01-2012, 06:05 PM
The Reds defense has been below average thus far this season and their best defensive middle defender is gimpy. I'm not a fan of making the defense worse unless there is a guaranteed substantial upgrade offensively.

Statistically speaking (and I assume you are), it's way too early to make any statements about the Reds overall defense. That's a collection of numbers that's still a long way away from having any meaning.

However, Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Bruce and Stubbs are all established defenders and Cozart earned his way up to the Show with his glove. Given the range Stubbs and Bruce have in the OF, plus the three GG infielders and the rookie with the prime defending skills, I don't think it's going terribly far out on a limb to suggest the numbers will trend upward as the season progresses or that one poor defensive LF isn't going to lead the team down the path to ruin.

And pushing that .186 leadoff OB above .350 would be a substantial upgrade. However, this isn't Sears, so the merchandise doesn't come with an ironclad guarantee. My take is the OB situation is a mess and Abreu is a potential fix. Unless the team has an immediate trade in the works, then I don't see the harm in giving him a try.

jojo
05-01-2012, 07:00 PM
Statistically speaking (and I assume you are), it's way too early to make any statements about the Reds overall defense. That's a collection of numbers that's still a long way away from having any meaning.

However, Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Bruce and Stubbs are all established defenders and Cozart earned his way up to the Show with his glove. Given the range Stubbs and Bruce have in the OF, plus the three GG infielders and the rookie with the prime defending skills, I don't think it's going terribly far out on a limb to suggest the numbers will trend upward as the season progresses or that one poor defensive LF isn't going to lead the team down the path to ruin.

And pushing that .186 leadoff OB above .350 would be a substantial upgrade. However, this isn't Sears, so the merchandise doesn't come with an ironclad guarantee. My take is the OB situation is a mess and Abreu is a potential fix. Unless the team has an immediate trade in the works, then I don't see the harm in giving him a try.

He was a below average hitter last season being particularly bad during the second half. He didn't look good this year. His numbers over the last several years really seem to be showing significant decline in ability and the eyes weren't painting an impressive picture this year. IMHO it's a push to hope he could bring average on base skills to the mix at this point.

M2
05-01-2012, 08:12 PM
He was a below average hitter last season being particularly bad during the second half. He didn't look good this year. His numbers over the last several years really seem to be showing significant decline in ability and the eyes weren't painting an impressive picture this year. IMHO it's a push to hope he could bring average on base skills to the mix at this point.

No doubt he's aging (as are we all). But I posted his numbers vs. RHPs above. Those would do just fine if he's got one more season like that in him. I'm not sure where you're pulling below average for him last year. I'm guessing that's based on positional averages (begging the question of what was his position?). Overall he had a 104 OPS+ thanks to an OB that was 30 points above the league average. And we are looking for OB here.

One thing going for Abreu is his legs have held up pretty well over the years, which indicates he's not in complete physical decline (or at least hasn't been in previous years). And if he's a push for the OB, that puts him ahead of Ludwick, who pretty much has no hope of delivering it.

jojo
05-01-2012, 08:19 PM
No doubt he's aging (as are we all). But I posted his numbers vs. RHPs above. Those would do just fine if he's got one more season like that in him. I'm not sure where you're pulling below average for him last year. I'm guessing that's based on positional averages (begging the question of what was his position?). Overall he had a 104 OPS+ thanks to an OB that was 30 points above the league average. And we are looking for OB here.

One thing going for Abreu is his legs have held up pretty well over the years, which indicates he's not in complete physical decline (or at least hasn't been in previous years). And if he's a push for the OB, that puts him ahead of Ludwick, who pretty much has no hope of delivering it.

It was based upon is wOBA which doesn't consider position.

M2
05-01-2012, 09:38 PM
It was based upon is wOBA which doesn't consider position.

Well, he was above average in OPS+, OWin%, RAP, WPA, RE24, wRC+ and wRAA. Far as I can tell, he rated above average in every batting stat except wOBA. So, unless you're going to argue wOBA is the one ring to rule them all, I'll take the field pick.

And a quick correction to something I posted above. Abreu's .353 OB last season was 39 points above a park-adjusted league average of .314.

jojo
05-01-2012, 10:26 PM
Well, he was above average in OPS+, OWin%, RAP, WPA, RE24, wRC+ and wRAA. Far as I can tell, he rated above average in every batting stat except wOBA. So, unless you're going to argue wOBA is the one ring to rule them all, I'll take the field pick.

And a quick correction to something I posted above. Abreu's .353 OB last season was 39 points above a park-adjusted league average of .314.

wOBA sums him perfectly.

But who moves off of the roster to free a spot for an aged, one-trick pony who bleeds runs defensively and who one hopes can still provide some value offensively? This is an especially pertinent question when it's seems unlikely Dusty would ever let him get near the lead off spot.

Abreu hasn't played the field for any significant amount of time since 2010 when he was basically a -1 WAR defender. He'd be a statue in the field at this point. But lets assume he's still only a -10 run corner defender (this is erring-probably big time-in his favor). Lets assume he gets 300 PAs as a platoon bat (so his defensive value is really only -5 runs) and manages a wOBA=.350 against righties (which is probably also pretty optimistic). His bat would be worth 5.2 runs and his glove would wipe that completely out. This is ignoring position and replacement etc. But basically in that scenario,when everything is factored in, his total value would end up being something like .3 WAR. This for a guy with limited use on the bench and awful defense.

That's the argument for why I say I'd rather not dramatically downgrade the defense for such a meager gain.

If his bat was still potent and it wasn't a risk, the calculus is different. But his offensive value is questionable and his defensive value is pretty much a certainty.

M2
05-01-2012, 10:39 PM
wOBA sums him perfectly.

Clearly it is precious to you.


But who moves off of the roster to free a spot for an aged, one-trick pony who bleeds runs defensively and who one hopes can still provide some value offensively? This is an especially pertinent question when it's seems unlikely Dusty would ever let him get near the lead off spot.

Chris Heisey probably could stand to get some reps down in Louisville. And Dusty loves him some proven veterans. He'd probably trust Abreu with nuclear codes.

jojo
05-01-2012, 11:04 PM
Clearly it is precious to you.

As it should be.


Dusty loves him some proven veterans. He'd probably trust Abreu with nuclear codes.

Dusty's grey hairs are mostly periphery peckers. He's not going to make a guy he can outrun his lead off hitter. He's never really shown any predilection to use the new-aged, newfangled advanced stats like OBP to pick his lead off guys. I'm thinking the OBP of a platoon split goes a bit unnoticed when he's handing out nuclear codes. Besides the long in the tooths aren't exactly making a case for going even more aged....

westofyou
05-01-2012, 11:13 PM
Don't know how much he's got left. He was .259/.366/.400 vs. RHPs last year and .267/.377/.478 the season before. If he can deliver something in that range, I wouldn't complain.

Sign him and allow a few weeks of conditioning (ala getting ready for the NL?)

The man can hit... stick him in this division and his numbers will shine.

Find his spots and take advantage.

Not every player needs to be a defensive wizard, the roster can be your friend

jojo
05-01-2012, 11:23 PM
Sign him and allow a few weeks of conditioning (ala getting ready for the NL?)

The man can hit... stick him in this division and his numbers will shine.

Find his spots and take advantage.

Not every player needs to be a defensive wizard, the roster can be your friend

It's trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip in order to make lemonade..... And in this concoction, a zero sum game carries an opportunity cost for the pitching staff.

westofyou
05-01-2012, 11:31 PM
It's trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip in order to make lemonade..... And in this concoction, a zero sum game carries an opportunity cost for the pitching staff.

Or he could make lemonade out of lemons

jojo
05-01-2012, 11:39 PM
Or he could make lemonade out of lemons

.825....787......717.......593.......

M2
05-02-2012, 12:26 AM
.825....787......717.......593.......

Does OPS count now? Or is it only when it fits your pre-concocted narrative?


Or he could make lemonade out of lemons

Or OB from a guy who's made a career out of getting on base.

757690
05-02-2012, 12:27 AM
Sign him and allow a few weeks of conditioning (ala getting ready for the NL?)

The man could hit...

He's lost over 100 OPS points since he turned 35. He's 38 now. He's not going to get better.

kheidg-
05-02-2012, 12:51 AM
He's lost over 100 OPS points since he turned 35. He's 38 now. He's not going to get better.

If he maintains the status quo, he will be far and away better than Ludwick has been for the last 3 years.

757690
05-02-2012, 01:13 AM
If he maintains the status quo, he will be far and away better than Ludwick has been for the last 3 years.

Offensively. Factor in defense, and they are very similar.

Abreu would be a fine guy to replace Harris, as long as he never takes the field. But with 12 pitchers, the team can't afford that luxury.

jojo
05-02-2012, 07:21 AM
Does OPS count now? Or is it only when it fits your pre-concocted narrative?

My narrative? Oh come on...stop with the bias BS. This isn't my narrative. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of Abreu's lives....

It happens-as you said-"he's aging (as are we all)". It's just he plays baseball and "aged, no gloved platoon bat" cream is a difficult ingredient to add to an NL chowder even if it weren't showing signs of turning.

Scrap Irony
05-02-2012, 11:03 AM
He's a gamble, one that is a long shot to provide much over replacement level production.

Ludwick at least has a glove.

I'd target someone else from the Angels. A Frazier for Mark Trumbo deal might work for both teams, as the Angels are built for right now and Trumbo is an extra part. Even better, perhaps the Reds could grab Kendrys Morales and stick him in LF. (He'll hit eventually, but it takes time to remember after a year and a half off.)

Chris Denorfia from San Diego would also be a nice player to target. He's got a nice seven-year major league history, a very good glove, and is a gamer. A swap of Chris Heisey and Deno makes sense for all parties. (Or the Reds could always deal Stubbs for something better.)

kheidg-
05-02-2012, 11:45 AM
Ludwick at least has a glove.



I keep hearing this over and over. I don't see it. He's average - at best.

I haven't seen Abreu play defense, but I do realize he's 38. Heisey can play LF for us when we need the defense and against LHP.

Looking at the defensive stats, it is apparent that Abreu no longer has excellent range in the OF, however it also doesn't look like he will kill you out there (i.e. Dunn, Gomes)

M2
05-02-2012, 11:57 AM
My narrative? Oh come on...stop with the bias BS. This isn't my narrative. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of Abreu's lives....

It happens-as you said-"he's aging (as are we all)". It's just he plays baseball and "aged, no gloved platoon bat" cream is a difficult ingredient to add to an NL chowder even if it weren't showing signs of turning.

When you completely ignore a pile of stats indicating Abreu had an above average year at the plate in 2011, that's pre-concocted narrative.

When you then use one of those stats in a later post to assert that he's irretrievably lost it, that's pre-concocted narrative. [Two quick points about Abreu's 2012 OPS: 1) 27 PAs is a preposterously small sample size, 2) His OPS is still better than Albert Pujols'.]

When you try to insist the guy can't run anymore, when anyone who's seen him play in recent years could tell he's still got good wheels, that's pre-concocted narrative.

It is possible Abreu has gone around the bend (he had a miserable ST). I don't think anyone has said otherwise. Yet you've made no case that it's impossible he could replicate the .360+ OB he's posted against RHPs the previous two seasons. Given that the Reds have a glaring need for some OB out of LF, that Abreu is there for anyone who wants to grab him and that Chris Heisey can be sent to AAA, the possibility that he could merits consideration.

This is a classic case of where the team ought to work Abreu out and trust the advice of the scouts who see him.

jojo
05-02-2012, 01:01 PM
When you completely ignore a pile of stats indicating Abreu had an above average year at the plate in 2011, that's pre-concocted narrative.

When you then use one of those stats in a later post to assert that he's irretrievably lost it, that's pre-concocted narrative. [Two quick points about Abreu's 2012 OPS: 1) 27 PAs is a preposterously small sample size, 2) His OPS is still better than Albert Pujols'.]

When one ignores a trend that resulted in a player getting his walking papers, it's a pre-concocted narrative.


It is possible Abreu has gone around the bend (he had a miserable ST). I don't think anyone has said otherwise. Yet you've made no case that it's impossible he could replicate the .360+ OB he's posted against RHPs the previous two seasons. Given that the Reds have a glaring need for some OB out of LF, that Abreu is there for anyone who wants to grab him and that Chris Heisey can be sent to AAA, the possibility that he could merits consideration.

The case is pretty simple. As you concede, he's aging so his bat is a risk. He is also a substantial defensive liability. His remaining potential strength-leverage of platoon splits is actually a skillset that limits his usefullness to a very narrow role.

Essentially to give him at bats, he also has to log defensive innings. I've already illustrated why this is a problem by putting numbers on the issue (using numbers you'd likely agree with because they essentially said he could maintain his platoon advantage and didn't deviate from the way his performance defined his defense before he quit having to play defense). As an option, he's not likely to be impactful.

If the goal is to meaningfully upgrade the roster, Abreu is most likely wasted motion that uses a spot that could potentially go to someone who does represent an upgrade.


This is a classic case of where the team ought to work Abreu out and trust the advice of the scouts who see him.

Scouts don't think he can play defense anymore. This is pretty much a classic case of a guy aging into a limited role with an AL team.

M2
05-02-2012, 02:26 PM
When one ignores a trend that resulted in a player getting his walking papers, it's a pre-concocted narrative.

No one's ignoring that. However, he still had a plus bat vs. RHPs as recently as last year. You seem almost desperate to gloss over that fact.


As you concede, he's aging so his bat is a risk. He is also a substantial defensive liability. His remaining potential strength-leverage of platoon splits is actually a skillset that limits his usefullness to a very narrow role.

A) You need to brush up on your language skills. I didn't "concede" that he's aging, which raises question marks about his ability to maintain his historical skill set. I walked into this discussion fully cognizant of it and stating as much. I can't "concede" something I thought in the first place.

B) Jonny Gomes was a substantial defensive liability in 2010. In fact, he was about as bad a LF as you're ever going to see. Yet the Reds still managed to put together a quality defense. Apparently Stubbs, Bruce and a quality IF can cover for a bad LF. I only point this out because it happened and it's a direct parallel.

C) When did the single most important component to run scoring become a narrow role? Allow me to go on record here. I like players who get on base. I especially like it when that OB comes with a little power or speed. Abreu's power was in retreat last season (though a park/division switch would surely help on that front), but he still moves pretty well. I readily recognize he's no sure thing, but let's not pretend something essential (OB at the top of the lineup) is a narrow role. Anyone who could produce that OB would be a vital cog on this team.


Essentially to give him at bats, he also has to log defensive innings.

No duh. Please refer to the above note about Gomes for why LF defensive shenanigans will not cause the Reds to burst into flames, engulfing the entire Cincinnati metropolitan area in an uncontrollable inferno.


I've already illustrated why this is a problem by putting numbers on the issue (using numbers you'd likely agree with because they essentially said he could maintain his platoon advantage and didn't deviate from the way his performance defined his defense before he quit having to play defense). As an option, he's not likely to be impactful.

I respectfully said nothing about your impact analysis.


If the goal is to meaningfully upgrade the roster, Abreu is most likely wasted motion that uses a spot that could potentially go to someone who does represent an upgrade.

Like who? Name me the kid in the minors the Reds could tab right now who could help this team offensively in the OF. Name the player they can grab off the waiver wire who might turn that .186 OB in the leadoff spot into something respectable.

I'm all for longer term solutions and surer things. Might be two months before you can trade for one of them.

So you'll have to excuse me if I think it's worth a flyer to have a career OB machine like Abreu work out for some scouts and then (if the scouts like what they see) go to AAA to see if he can get his stick working.

And how exactly do you waste motion on a waiver wire pickup? Seriously, is Walt Jocketty a sumo who must conserve every ounce of bio energy for furious bursts in the ring? Would it use up the Reds' predetermined allotment of moves for the season?

Or would it just be a team with a clear need investigating its options? Because I'm pretty sure that's what it would be.


Scouts don't think he can play defense anymore. This is pretty much a classic case of a guy aging into a limited role with an AL team.

Really? Is that what the scouts are telling you? All the scouts that you've polled on this particular matter?

RANDY IN INDY
05-02-2012, 02:36 PM
Really? Is that what the scouts are telling you? All the scouts that you've polled on this particular matter?

Here, here!:beerme:

RichRed
05-02-2012, 02:41 PM
I'm in favor of giving Abreu a look-see. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Dusty bats him leadoff, however.

Rojo
05-02-2012, 03:10 PM
His remaining potential strength-leverage of platoon splits is actually a skillset that limits his usefullness to a very narrow role.

Lead-off against 70% of the league's pitchers. That doesn't sound "narrow".

M2
05-02-2012, 03:41 PM
I'm in favor of giving Abreu a look-see. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Dusty bats him leadoff, however.

Here's the spitball tree I came up with for why he might hit Abreu leadoff:

- If they bring in Abreu and play him regularly (which assumes lots of things that aren't givens), it would clearly be to give the offense a shot in the arm.

- They're not going to bat their offensive shot in the arm at the bottom of the lineup.

- The #3 hole is filled by Votto and Abreu is not a big power/RBI guy to hold down a 4-6 slot.

- Dusty might want to hit Abreu 2nd, but Cozart has done well there and Dusty doesn't like to hit LHBs back-to-back.

- Hitting Abreu leadoff would separate his LHBs and Abreu was stealing 20+ bases as recently as last year. Abreu also makes pitchers throw a boatload of pitches, which surely indulges Dusty's old school instincts on what makes a good leadoff hitter.

So, other important questions aside, if Abreu were to get a starting gig with the team, I actually think there's a decent possibility he could hit leadoff. In general, I think any LHB bat brought in to help the offense is liable to hit leadoff (provided it's not a straight up power hitter).

jojo
05-02-2012, 03:47 PM
No one's ignoring that. However, he still had a plus bat vs. RHPs as recently as last year. You seem almost desperate to gloss over that fact.

How do you figure anything was glossed over especially since the hypothetical used to illustrate my argument for him likely having little impact assumed a plus bat (+5 runs)?


A) You need to brush up on your language skills. I didn't "concede" that he's aging, which raises question marks about his ability to maintain his historical skill set. I walked into this discussion full cognizant of it and stating as much. I can't "concede" something I thought in the first place.

I don't care about semantics. Either way you acknowledge that aging is known to impact production and there is ample evidence of aging in his recent production. A logical extension then is that it's likely his performance will continue to decline and it's not unreasonable to assume that this decline would also impact his OBP against right-handed pitchers. Clearly you're banking on this not to happen to a significant degree.


) Jonny Gomes was a substantial defensive liability in 2010. In fact, he was about as bad a LF as you're ever going to see. Yet the Reds still managed to put together a quality defense. Apparently Stubbs, Bruce and a quality IF can cover for a bad LF. I only point this out because it happened and it's a direct parallel.

Gomes was a significantly below average player as a Red too. Thats a very low bar for an upgrade.


C) When did the single most important component to run scoring become a narrow role? Allow me to go on record here. I like players who get on base. I especially like it when that OB comes with a little power or speed. Abreu's power was in retreat last season (though a park/division switch would surely help on that front), but he still moves pretty well. I readily recognize he's no sure thing, but let's not pretend something essential (OB at the top of the lineup) is a narrow role. Anyone who could produce that OB would be a vital cog on this team.

The problem is that he effects runs scored/runs allowed in more ways then just his OBP against righties. His entire skillset effects the Reds fortunes. He's useful in a very narrow role and his strength in that role neccessitates his biggest weakness also come to bare so that in the grand sum, he's not really the impact a focus upon the OBP its hoped he could provide against righties might suggest. And again, we don't know how much that OBP skill has deteriorated but we do have a good sense of the value of his weakness.


No duh. Please refer to the above note about Gomes for why LF defensive shenanigans will not cause the Reds to burst into flames, engulfing the entire Cincinnati metropolitan area in an uncontrollable inferno.

Hyberbole can't obfuscate the underlying point-his defense impacts his value...if he contributes 5 runs with his bat while giving up 5 runs with his glove, the impact of his platoon advantage evaporates just like a mirage....


I respectfully said nothing about your impact analysis.

It's obvious why.


Like who? Name me the kid in the minors the Reds could tab right now who could help this team offensively in the OF. Name the player they can grab off the waiver wire who might turn that .186 OB in the leadoff spot into something respectable.

The premise that Abreu would bat lead off is MUCH less credible then the premise that his OBP skills will degrade because of the aging process.


Really? Is that what the scouts are telling you? All the scouts that you've polled on this particular matter?

Lets ignore that he's historically been a bad defender even in his prime. Roll out the hoards of scouts who are praising his defense and think he is a viable option in the outfield....

Again assuming "a best case scenario" that Abreu is used strictly against righties, experiences only a very benovolent effect of age on his OBP against righties, and is only as bad defensively as he was the last few years he actually played defense, his impact is a push unless like Gomes in 2010 he has 1 month of grande, unrepeatable randomness that dwarfs his other 4 months. I don't think Jocketty is a sumo, an orca, a martian, or a hermit crab living in a world that really is just a molecule inside a grander universe that really is just another molecule inside an even grander universe.

I think Jocketty can do better than randomness and zero sum games.

M2
05-02-2012, 03:58 PM
It's obvious why.

Not to you.

mdccclxix
05-02-2012, 07:48 PM
M2 says it could work, jojo says no freakin' way. For me, I find that it makes most sense to at least explore the possibility, as M2 makes the case for. This team looks bad right now and it's worth wondering how much better it really is.

I know the poor OPS's in the lineup and how they're going to rebound significantly, but LF is still a problem, as is Willie Harris as our late inning pawn. The power of positive thinking needs to come to bear here: so, what can Abreu do for you? (tm)

He's a LHB that played RF for a long time, stole 20+ bags every year up through 2011, gets on base against RHP, has played for championship teams, has a chip on his shoulder...there's enough here to not scoff at the idea.

FWIW, mlbtraderumors is relaying that some NL teams are interested. I for one hope the Reds are in on Abreu.

Vottomatic
05-02-2012, 08:13 PM
M2 says it could work, jojo says no freakin' way. For me, I find that it makes most sense to at least explore the possibility, as M2 makes the case for. This team looks bad right now and it's worth wondering how much better it really is.

I know the poor OPS's in the lineup and how they're going to rebound significantly, but LF is still a problem, as is Willie Harris as our late inning pawn. The power of positive thinking needs to come to bear here: so, what can Abreu do for you? (tm)

He's a LHB that played RF for a long time, stole 20+ bags every year up through 2011, gets on base against RHP, has played for championship teams, has a chip on his shoulder...there's enough here to not scoff at the idea.

FWIW, mlbtraderumors is relaying that some NL teams are interested. I for one hope the Reds are in on Abreu.

Good argument for picking him up. At this point, could the Reds do any worse?

jojo
05-02-2012, 08:31 PM
If he's willing, Abreu would make a fine bat-in Louisville.

OldXOhio
05-04-2012, 12:28 AM
Dodgers are in the mix

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120502&content_id=30214912&notebook_id=30243692&vkey=notebook_la&c_id=la

defender
05-04-2012, 02:40 AM
Hyberbole can't obfuscate the underlying point-his defense impacts his value...if he contributes 5 runs with his bat while giving up 5 runs with his glove, the impact of his platoon advantage evaporates just like a mirage....


On average yes. I think M2 is saying, that in the specific case of the Reds, the extra runners Abreu allows will score fewer than five runs because of the Reds above average defense. And, the extra times Abreu gets on base will result in more than 5 runs because of the Reds better than average 3rd hitter.

At this point, I still expect Ludwick to come around and be the best overall option. Unless Jockety sees Abreu as even a better upgrade than M2 is arguing, I don't see him making this move. Any tinkering now, will be at the valdez/harris level. If Abreu is willing to be 5th of/lh pher, then I am all for signing him and dumping Harris.

WildcatFan
05-04-2012, 10:39 AM
Dodgers are in the mix

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120502&content_id=30214912&notebook_id=30243692&vkey=notebook_la&c_id=la

Dodgers got him as a bench bat and part-time outfielder. Hard to argue that he wouldn't have been useful in Cincinnati in that role.

https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/status/198404279978041345

DGullett35
05-04-2012, 12:14 PM
I agree. The Reds could have had a use for Abreu. I wonder how much the Dodgers are paying him? Also according to MLB Trade Rumors the Cubs may be shopping Brian Lahair since hes basically keeping the first base job warm for Anthony Rizzo. Lahair could be moved to a corner OF spot IMO. I don't think he could keep his current production up but he sure seems to like GABP. I know that it wouldn't solve our RH power bat that can hit 4th issue, but it also wouldn't be such a bad idea to look into. However the asking price would obviously be at its highest right now with his great start.

kheidg-
05-19-2012, 01:55 AM
I think the Reds could use this right now.

.314/.351/.514/.866

Granted, small sample size... but he is batting 3rd for the first place Dodgers with Kemp out.

Can't see how this wouldn't have been an upgrade over Ludwick.

kheidg-
06-08-2012, 01:00 AM
I think the Reds missed the boat on this one. Would be the good LH bat off the bench. Maybe he didn't want to go anywhere outside of California.

.316/.438/.443 .881

jojo
06-08-2012, 01:16 AM
I think the Reds missed the boat on this one. Would be the good LH bat off the bench. Maybe he didn't want to go anywhere outside of California.

.316/.438/.443 .881

His .600 BABIP against lefties is a little out of character for him and as expected he's been a sieve in the field. This isn't likely to end well as the world turns.... Walt made a good call on this one.

Tom Servo
08-01-2012, 03:06 PM
The Dodgers DFA'ed Abreu today.

Spitball
08-01-2012, 03:11 PM
I wondered how the heck there was a five page thread on Bobby Abreu already.

I hope they give him a shot. He still gets on base even if he doesn't have power anymore.

jojo
08-01-2012, 03:22 PM
The Dodgers DFA'ed Abreu today.

His first 40 AB's as a Dodger were short-lived lightning in a bottle.

The rest? Not so much as it was more of the same as in Anaheim. Basically since mid-May, he hit like Mesaroco while fielding at a rate of -12 runs/150, looking very much like a replacement level player.

This was one nonmove for which Jocketty deserves kudos.

757690
08-01-2012, 03:22 PM
I wondered how the heck there was a five page thread on Bobby Abreu already.

I hope they give him a shot. He still gets on base even if he doesn't have power anymore.

Really can't field anymore. Never thought I'd say this, but I'd rather have Overbay.

OesterPoster
08-01-2012, 03:23 PM
I wondered how the heck there was a five page thread on Bobby Abreu already.

I hope they give him a shot. He still gets on base even if he doesn't have power anymore.

I looked at his Dodger stats too, and I was shocked to see he stole 5 bases. Does the old guy still move pretty well?

M2
08-01-2012, 03:28 PM
I looked at his Dodger stats too, and I was shocked to see he stole 5 bases. Does the old guy still move pretty well?

Yep, he's still effective on the bases.

OnBaseMachine
08-01-2012, 03:36 PM
.359 OBP in 209 plate appearances for the Dodgers. I'd take that on the Reds bench.

REDREAD
08-01-2012, 03:40 PM
At this point, I'm kind of more tempted to stay with Xaviar Paul as the 25th man. With Phillips out a few days, we kind of need someone that can play a position. That kind of makes me cooler on Overbay too.

Basically, with Valdez playing at 2b until Phillips gets better, that really cuts down on the teams defensive flexibility.

Paul looks like Babe Ruth compared to the other 25th men we've had so far (Willie and Constanzo)

jojo
08-01-2012, 03:44 PM
I looked at his Dodger stats too, and I was shocked to see he stole 5 bases. Does the old guy still move pretty well?

He was also caught twice (71% success rate) and fangraphs suggests he had a negative impact on the bases this season using the ultimate baserunning metric (BsR on fangraphs) which is largely consistent with his last few seasons.

Reds1
08-01-2012, 03:54 PM
this was a crazy post to read. I thought a few guys were crazy talking about how Ludwich was sucking and I couldn't figure it out. :) I was thinking Ludwich has really saved us since Votto is hurt and his defense was better than I thought were others said worse. I feel better. I thought I was going crazy. It sucks when old post come up and I'm looking at the current picture.

Go Reds