View Full Version : Reds stats through 20 games

04-28-2012, 01:26 PM
Reds go 5-5 in last ten, overall 9-11, 4 games behind Cards tied with Brewers for second place. Reds -10 in RS/RA differential. Reds 5-5 at home and 4-6 on road. Cairo and Bray on DL, Frazier and Hoover with big club.

Offense - Team OPS is .678, up from .589 last time, now 10th in NL, below league average of .697. Reds are 10th in NL in slugging (.375), 11th in OBP (.304), 12th in BA (.236). Reds are 13th in NL in wOBA (weighted on base average) with .292. Reds are 13th in NL in wRC+(weighted runs created plus) with 81 (100 is league average).

Reds are 9th in the NL in base hits with 162, tied for 5th-7th in extra base hits with 58.

Votto and Bruce with .868 and .842 OPS, respectively. Nice OPS by Mes in early going with .785. Votto with unusually high 23 Ks but also has 19 walks. K/BB rates on Reds worth noting - Stubbs 21/4, Bruce 20/4, Cozart 15/6, Rolen 15/4, Ludwick 13/5, Heisey 8/3.

Pitching - Team ERA 3.63 exactly league average, 8th in NL. Home 3.60 ERA, 12th in NL. Road 3.65 ERA, 6th in NL. Starters 3.94 ERA, 9th in NL. Relievers 3.30 ERA, 6th in NL. Team WHIP 1.30, 8th in NL. K/BB 2.37, 8th in NL.

Reds FIP is 3.69 (9th-10th in NL). Reds xFIP (which attempts to normalize homer rate based on average homer/fly ball rate and other factors) is 3.85, 11th in NL.

Chapman, Hoover, and Ondrusek still with 0 ERAs. Leake 0-3 and Marshall 0-2 Won/Lost, both with ERAs over 6. Chapman, Cueto (1.78 ERA) and Arredondo (2.70) each 2-0 Won/Lost.

All Reds pitchers with 1.36 WHIP or better, except for the following who are all over 1.5 WHIP - Lecure, Simon, Latos, Leake, Marshall, Bray.

Fielding - Tough defensive stretch for Reds. Fielding PCT went from .993 to .982, team made 11 errors now with 14. Reds now 8th in fielding percentage. Reds DER now 11th in NL at .692. Team UZR now 11th at -2.9. Some bad weather didn't help fielding numbers.

04-28-2012, 03:49 PM
Is 1/8 through the season too early to fire a hitting coach?

04-29-2012, 01:16 AM
One additional stat of interest is that the Reds have walked 64 times through 21 games. This is ninth in the NL, middle of the pack, seems reasonable.

Until we focus on the fact that 19 of those walks were taken by one player, Joey Votto, who has the NL lead.

Other than Joey, the highest number of walks taken by a Red through 21 games is 6 by Zach Cozart and the number gets lower from there on. Bruce, Ludwick, and the two catchers have 5 walks each, etc.

Walks to Votto, of course, are a bit different because they are often semi-intentional and they take the bat out of the Reds' great hitter's hands. People could argue whether these walks to Joey are beneficial to the Reds.

But regardless how one views walks to Votto, it is noteworthy that the rest of the squad has taken so few walks to date. As set out above, the Reds' team OBP after twenty games was just .304.

Ghosts of 1990
04-29-2012, 01:29 AM
Is 1/8 through the season too early to fire a hitting coach?

I'm convinced they'll never fire Brook Jacoby. Never. No matter what they find on the guy. He has tenure or something.

Homer Bailey
04-29-2012, 05:33 AM
I'm convinced they'll never fire Brook Jacoby. Never. No matter what they find on the guy. He has tenure or something.

Seriously! The Reds need to find a guy whose teams have finished top 2 in the league in runs scored the last two years. How do they keep this Jacoby guy employed?!? Have you seen his numbers over the last THREE WEEKS?!?!?!?

04-29-2012, 08:34 AM
Looks to me like numbers pretty much flesh out a tough stretch to start out the season for the Reds. Walks are low because the team was in a slump and every pitcher they faced was working fearlessly. The offense is trending upward after a deep slump and the hole is only two games under. Not a bad position all things considered. The pitching has been top heavy so far, with about half the staff pitching great, while the other half are getting knocked around. I'd say the pitching, other than Leake's problems, have been pitching well of late.

This is good stuff to see in aggregate, but I would imagine the numbers for just the last ten games rank much better in comparison to the league and the low rankings are currently being skewed by the first 12 games.

04-29-2012, 09:26 AM
Jay Bruce at home this year is positively Kempian


Ok maybe not Kemp like but still.

04-29-2012, 10:20 AM
The walk rates are interesting so far this year. Both Bruce and Stubbs trail last year's walk rates, both are walking at half of last year's clip. Phillips is walking at about the same clip as last year (fairly low, 6.7 percent).

Votto is walking at a 20.2 percent clip, higher than last year's 15.3 percent.

I expect Bruce and Stubbs to walk more. Question is whether Votto will walk less. Or will the NL continue to walk Joey at a 20 percent clip this season and what impact that will have on the Reds' offense.

All this points out certain ways in which the Reds offense could be improved. Last year only Votto and Bruce walked at a 10 percent clip or higher. I would argue that another high OBP guy at the top of the order would help. Cozart wasn't a high OBP guy in the minors, too early to tell how he will do in the OBP department in the NL.

Maybe more significantly, Dusty may need to formulate his lineup to provide max protection for Votto. Absent a new cleanup hitter, he probaby needs to hit Bruce more at cleanup, maybe Phillips fifth, Something like Cozart, Stubbs, Votto, Bruce, Phillips against righties. Ultimately, some day, another middle order bat would help. Reds need pitchers to pitch to Joey IMO. A twenty percent walk rate for Joey seems to be counterproductive.

Reds pattern is to use Philips as the proxy for a leadoff hitter AND a cleanup hitter, depending on how the team is hitting in a particular period. He's a fine player, but doesn't really fit either spot. To maximize this offense, a better fit at lead off, or cleanup, or both would really add.