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View Full Version : I want to hit second!



oneupper
04-30-2012, 08:52 AM
So far in 2012, Reds hitters in the 2-hole have the following slash line

.337/.380/.522/.902

Cozart .354/.415/.583/.998
Stubbs .371/.405/.543/.948

I know there are studies which downplay the "protection effect", to which I can only say "Rich Aurilia" or even our own Ryan Ludwick (who has very mediocre career numbers when not hitting in front of Pujols).

Both Cozart and Stubbs and particularly Stubbs have been putrid once removed from the spot in front of Joey.

(Stubbs outside the 2 spot is 7 for 50 with 3 walks and NO XBH).

elfmanvt07
04-30-2012, 08:57 AM
If you have the wheels like Stubbs or Cozart, I'll consider it.

Ghosts of 1990
04-30-2012, 10:05 AM
Great post. I have been calling the two-hole "magical" since last season. And here are the numbers to support it. I think a lot of it has to do with coming before Joey Votto in the lineup. It's a beautiful thing. But even dating back to 2010 that 2-hole was a slump ender if you remember; it was where you stuck Jay Bruce if you wanted him to get real hot.

RedEye
04-30-2012, 10:08 AM
I remember a FanGraphs post last year comparing Votto's current lineup effect to Pujols and (gasp) Bonds. There just aren't many hitters who strike as much fear in pitchers as he does these days. Whatever his statistics, his is a scary guy to face.

PuffyPig
04-30-2012, 11:15 AM
In 2011 the #2 hitter had a .715 OPS,one of the lowest on the team. The clean up spot was at .701.

So, those 2012 numbers may simply be the result of a small sample size.

And Votto seems to hit even with cleanup hitters hitting .701 (.580 this year) behind him.

oneupper
04-30-2012, 12:39 PM
In 2011 the #2 hitter had a .715 OPS,one of the lowest on the team. The clean up spot was at .701.
.

Perhaps some hitters are more suited to take advantage of that spot than others. Janish, Sappelt and Renteria couldn't hit in that spot. Others thrived.
Small samples, but...that's what we have.

2011 - #2 Spot


NAME TPA BA OBP SLG OPS
Phillips 255 0.292 0.336 0.424 0.76
Renteria 220 0.244 0.307 0.365 0.672
Sappelt 65 0.25 0.286 0.367 0.652
Janish 40 0.057 0.132 0.086 0.217
Cairo 36 0.323 0.353 0.452 0.805
Cozart 35 0.324 0.324 0.5 0.824
Bruce 30 0.25 0.379 0.625 1.004
Stubbs 27 0.364 0.462 0.5 0.962
Lewis 27 0.261 0.37 0.304 0.675
Heisey 15 0.357 0.4 0.857 1.257
Gomes† 9 0 0.111 0 0.111
Alonso 2 0 0 0 0
Hanigan 1 0 0 0 0
Totals 762 0.262 0.318 0.397 0.715

klw
04-30-2012, 12:44 PM
If the Reds insist on Bruce in the 5 spot, catcher 8th etc, I would be curious to see this lineup tried:

1 Phillips
2 Cozart
3 Votto
4 Stubbs
5 Bruce
6 Rolen
7 Ludwick
8 Mez/ Hanigan

I could see Stubbs either thriving or stinking in the 4 spot. May be worth a try.

_Sir_Charles_
04-30-2012, 05:48 PM
KC and I were discussing this in the game thread the other day and I'd kinda like to see what this would do.

Phillips
Stubbs/Cozart
Votto
Hanigan/Mesoraco
Bruce
Ludwick/Heisey
Rolen/Frazier
Cozart/Stubbs
Pitcher

Dusty & co. seem to want to insist on breaking up Votto & Bruce, fine. What about the catchers? Hanigan doesn't have power, but he does have excellent plate discipline & bat control and gets on base at a very nice clip. Mesoraco is still young obviously, but he looks like a middle of the order bat in the making. So lets give him some time there, plus it doesn't cause us to re-arrange the order as Dusty clearly hates doing.

Both Stubbs & Cozart have had enormous success in the 2 hole, so I'd have them alternate it depending on the starting pitchers. 3 or 4 games in succession should be enough to get them kick-started and it should be short enough to avoid the elongated slumps from not being there.

Moving Rolen down seems like a no-brainer at this point. But flip-flopping him and the LF'ers could go either way.

As for Phillips, I don't think he cares WHERE he hits, but from what I've seen...the worst spot for him is in the 4 hole. He looks like he's trying to go yard with every swing. It's like he's adjusting his approach based on where he's hitting and it's traditional stereotype.

Overall, I just want to see Phillips out of the cleanup slot, Stubbs out of the leadoff slot, and Hanigan moved up in the order due to his OBP.

What say you RZ'ers?

Degenerate39
05-01-2012, 07:17 AM
What about Bruce in the two hole? O_O