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Vottomatic
05-05-2012, 04:38 PM
Does it make sense to anyone else why Dusty won't bat Bruce cleanup when he is on a tear?

The whole lefty righty thing is overblown. Bruce is batting over .300 with 8 HR's. Votto is in a funk. Who you gonna pitch to in that situation?

Geez. Take advantage of the situation while Jay is still hot. When he hits his cold streak, then move him back to the 5th spot.

Brutus
05-05-2012, 04:42 PM
Isn't this the same argument from several ongoing threads re-packaged?

DGullett35
05-05-2012, 05:51 PM
I agree since batting Bruce 4th right now may give Joey some decent pitches to hit

jojo
05-05-2012, 06:06 PM
Ignoring that often streaks are just happy or unhappy randomness, a problem with using hot streaks to determine lineups is that it's like reading tea leaves and often perception persists beyond reality...

Ghosts of 1990
05-05-2012, 06:07 PM
Dusty believes in his heart that if he hits Bruce 4th, he will stop hitting. I honestly think in Dusty's twisted mind that he believes Bruce's hot streak is due to Dusty placing him 5th in the order, and he doesn't want to rock the boat. That's Dusty Baker thinking for you.

mth123
05-05-2012, 06:09 PM
Phillips 2B
Cozart SS
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Mesoraco LF
Hanigan C
Rolen 3B
Stubbs CF


That is probably the best balance of offense and defense the team can put on the field right now and yes I realize the Mes may be a liability in LF. Heisey or Ludwick can play and bat 6th when Mes catches.

mdccclxix
05-05-2012, 08:58 PM
Today vs a RH power pitcher I'd have gone:

BP
Ludwick
Votto
Bruce
Frazier
Hanigan
Cozart
Heisey
P

Stubbs is just a bad option vs McDonald.

mdccclxix
05-05-2012, 09:06 PM
I'm a fan of the newest square peg idea, Mez to LF. If he's an .800 OPS bat, he's got to play 135+ games.

jojo
05-05-2012, 09:38 PM
Phillips leading off against a power righty is a less good idea then having him in the 5 or 6 hole IMHO.

mth123
05-05-2012, 09:46 PM
Phillips leading off against a power righty is a less good idea then having him in the 5 or 6 hole IMHO.

Ideally, Phillips would hit 6th and Cozart 8th. Unfortunately, they are the best 2 options on the team to hit 1st and 2nd unless we just put Votto and Bruce 1, 2. Stubbs and Rolen are huge problems that ripple through the entire line-up.

mdccclxix
05-05-2012, 11:40 PM
Phillips leading off against a power righty is a less good idea then having him in the 5 or 6 hole IMHO.

It's far from ideal, I agree. I'm just not sure what we have with Cozart. In terms of fighting off good pitches, he's actually looked quite good. With Phillips at lead off most of the time, I'd hope he'd find his groove as an all fields spray hitter like the second half 2011. Even though he's not shown he hits power RHP that well, he is a skilled batsmen, moreso than Stubbs and possibly Cozart. Right now Cozart is worth a look though. The only time I'd move Phillips from the leadoff spot is against soft tossing LHP and even then, Bruce should be able to handle cleanup just as well. But who knows, Bruce always seems to dry up when he's moved to 4th. And they rode it out with him for some time last year.

mdccclxix
05-05-2012, 11:45 PM
The one tweak I'd like Dusty to make is Ludwick to the 2 spot vs middling or lower starters. It's not in the cards, but I'd just like to see if he could repeat what he did in 2008 and 2009 there hitting in front of Pujols. If there's anything to that phenomenon, perhaps he'd greatly greatly benefit. After that doesn't work, it's really just about finding out what Cozart, Mez, Heisey and Frazier have in the tank and where they can potentially hit to prop up the consistency in the lineup.

757690
05-05-2012, 11:45 PM
The Reds standard lineup with Phillips hitting cleanup and Bruce hitting 5th, according to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer, would produce 635 runs in a 162 game season, based on their current 2012 stats as of today. Switch Phillips and Bruce and that lineup would produce 644 runs over a 162 game season.

So if Bruce continues at his current .988 OPS pace and Phillips continues with his .637 OPS pace, switching the two would likely result in 9 more runs over the course of the a full season, or less than one win.

I would imagine that their respective OPS' would return to their career averages, and the difference would be much less, probably around 4-5 runs or half a win.

Lineups really don't matter that much. Getting the right players playing times if far more important.

mdccclxix
05-05-2012, 11:57 PM
The Reds standard lineup with Phillips hitting cleanup and Bruce hitting 5th, according to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer, would produce 635 runs in a 162 game season, based on their current 2012 stats as of today. Switch Phillips and Bruce and that lineup would produce 644 runs over a 162 game season.

So if Bruce continues at his current .988 OPS pace and Phillips continues with his .637 OPS pace, switching the two would likely result in 9 more runs over the course of the a full season, or less than one win.

I would imagine that their respective OPS' would return to their career averages, and the difference would be much less, probably around 4-5 runs or half a win.

Lineups really don't matter that much. Getting the right players playing times if far more important.

There is enough strategy to consider with lineups that you have to at least consider why and how you'll put certain players in certain spots. This or that is more or less likely to happen so I'll want this player here, etc. It would be interesting if a manager ever said, "I don't want any of you to think about where I ask you to hit, just frickin hit. Taveras, you're batting 4th."

757690
05-06-2012, 12:02 AM
There is enough strategy to consider with lineups that you have to at least consider why and how you'll put certain players in certain spots. This or that is more or less likely to happen so I'll want this player here, etc. It would be interesting if a manager ever said, "I don't want any of you to think about where I ask you to hit, just frickin hit. Taveras, you're batting 4th."

The problem with Taveras batting 4th in the lineup is not that Taveras is 4th in the lineup, but that Taveras is in the lineup. ;)

But, seriously, you are correct, there is some logic to putting together a lineup. High OBP at the top, high SLG in the middle and try to get your best hitters the most number of AB's. But even those only have a small overall effect.

Kc61
05-06-2012, 12:41 AM
I have the lineup for the Reds that will improve the offense against RHP.

1. Lead off centerfielder, lefty bat, good OBP, not currently a Red.
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Left fielder, righty bat with power, not currently a Red
5. Bruce
6. Third baseman, high contact hitter, lefty if possible, not currently a Red.
7. Mesoraco/Hanigan - switch with sixth hitter as Mes improves over time.
8. Cozart
9. Pitcher

the Votto/Bruce lineup thing is overblown. It would help against some pitchers. It wouldn't help against others. New hitters are needed.

HokieRed
05-06-2012, 11:26 AM
I have the lineup for the Reds that will improve the offense against RHP.

1. Lead off centerfielder, lefty bat, good OBP, not currently a Red.
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Left fielder, righty bat with power, not currently a Red
5. Bruce
6. Third baseman, high contact hitter, lefty if possible, not currently a Red.
7. Mesoraco/Hanigan - switch with sixth hitter as Mes improves over time.
8. Cozart
9. Pitcher

the Votto/Bruce lineup thing is overblown. It would help against some pitchers. It wouldn't help against others. New hitters are needed.

You're channeling the lineup for 2014. Hamilton in the leadoff, Lutz in the 4 spot and LF, Vidal or H Rod at 3b. With another lefty to sometimes go for Cozart, Didi.

DGullett35
05-06-2012, 11:27 AM
I have the lineup for the Reds that will improve the offense against RHP.

1. Lead off centerfielder, lefty bat, good OBP, not currently a Red.
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Left fielder, righty bat with power, not currently a Red
5. Bruce
6. Third baseman, high contact hitter, lefty if possible, not currently a Red.
7. Mesoraco/Hanigan - switch with sixth hitter as Mes improves over time.
8. Cozart
9. Pitcher

the Votto/Bruce lineup thing is overblown. It would help against some pitchers. It wouldn't help against others. New hitters are needed.


Id have Frazier at 3rd. It would have to better than the offensive production we are currently getting. I'd say I have to agree with you but I think at least 2 of the 3 changes you mentioned will have to wait till this offseason. No way does the lineup get that big of a shakeup. I just don't see it until after 2012

hebroncougar
05-06-2012, 12:28 PM
Of course, we had a much better bat in LF a few years ago, but he couldn't play defense (like Mesaraco would be out there), and all people did was gripe about his glove.

mth123
05-06-2012, 01:35 PM
Of course, we had a much better bat in LF a few years ago, but he couldn't play defense (like Mesaraco would be out there), and all people did was gripe about his glove.

The problem then, was with Griffey in CF, Keppinger at SS, Encarnacion at 3B and Bako/Ross/Javy catching, Dunn was one of the better defenders on the field for that team. Now with Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Bruce and Stubbs, there would be superior defenders at every other position (and most of the pitchers field well too). Sticking some one who could provide significant production in LF at the expense of some defense wouldn't signal the return of an era filled with monuments who can't move or guys who can't catch it or guys who throw it away all over the field.

Mesoraco is also a player with good defensive instincts. I'm not convinced that he'd be as awful Dunn or Alonso. If he could be Jonny Gomes defensively out there, it would be a huge improvement over Heisey or Ludwick IMO and it would only be a couple days per week. He'd still be catching 40% to 50% of the time. One problem on those teams was that the staff never got any relief. The horrid defense was out there every day at multiple spots. Playing a bat twice per week on a team with 8 other plus defenders is hardly the same thing and if it allows the team to get its third best bat in the line-up every day, its well worth it IMO.

mth123
05-06-2012, 01:37 PM
Id have Frazier at 3rd. It would have to better than the offensive production we are currently getting. I'd say I have to agree with you but I think at least 2 of the 3 changes you mentioned will have to wait till this offseason. No way does the lineup get that big of a shakeup. I just don't see it until after 2012

IMO, Frazier at 3B would cause more harm to the defense than Mesoraco in LF.

WebScorpion
05-07-2012, 01:50 AM
IMO, Frazier at 3B would cause more harm to the defense than Mesoraco in LF.Really? He (Frazier) played 3rd base today and made a couple of spectacular plays. One of them may have saved the game. I think his 3rd base defense is above average now...if he were there permanently I'd guess it would only improve.

reds44
05-07-2012, 01:52 AM
The most logical solution is playing Frazier in LF right now. They're never going to play Mesoraco in LF (nor should they, IMO) and a trade isn't coming until July if it comes at all.

Rolen is going to get a long leash at 3rd base.

mth123
05-07-2012, 03:46 AM
The most logical solution is playing Frazier in LF right now. They're never going to play Mesoraco in LF (nor should they, IMO) and a trade isn't coming until July if it comes at all.

Rolen is going to get a long leash at 3rd base.

Except Frazier doesn't have the bat to hit 4th or 5th in spite of his current hot streak. Mesoraco has the best RH bat on the roster. They need to get it in the line-up more, but doing so in place of Hanigan, who is also one of the top 5 or 6 position players on the roster, is counterproductive IMO. That means another position for Mes to play a couple days each week.

As for the defense, well Mes may be a bit of an adventure in LF, but the alternative to adding his mid-order bat would probably mean upgrading the offense in CF and 3B by playing Heisey in center and Frazier at 3rd. IMO removing Stubbs and Rolen for those guys hurts the overall defense more than sticking Mes in LF. I'd be fine giving Frazier a look in LF on the days when Mes is catching or in need of a day off.

HokieRed
05-07-2012, 10:48 AM
Realistically they're not going to put Mes in LF. But I don't see how, with this offense, you don't now play Frazier every day until he shows he doesn't deserve to play. I'd play him in LF until he plays himself out of the position and use him at 3rd when Rolen needs a day off. The question about who goes down when Cairo comes back shouldn't even concern Frazier: Harris, Valdez, Heisey should all be in line before Frazier. But, alas, that's probably not the way the decision will be made. I'm totally on board, and have been for a long time, with the idea that this team needs another, really two, left handed hitters, but to keep Willie Harris for that reason is a reductio ad absurdum.

Vottomatic
05-07-2012, 04:10 PM
They need to stick Lutz and Hamilton in the OF in the minors and start grooming them.

Hamilton will be our future leadoff man and CFer. And Lutz will be our future power hitting LFer. Atleast I hope.

Rojo
05-07-2012, 06:39 PM
FWIW, Stubbs is hitting .373/.418/.627 in the 2 hole this year. It's a small sample, but I'd leave him there for now.

PuffyPig
05-07-2012, 06:43 PM
IMO, Frazier at 3B would cause more harm to the defense than Mesoraco in LF.


Based on what?

Is there any thought Mes could play LF? Has he?

And you really deflete his value. He goes from a decent option at catcher to a likely average to below average producing LF.

mth123
05-08-2012, 04:33 AM
Based on what?

Is there any thought Mes could play LF? Has he?

And you really deflete his value. He goes from a decent option at catcher to a likely average to below average producing LF.

I'm not deflating anybody. Mes is still a catcher, but since he's only playing 2 or 3 times per week, I want to find a way to get his bat in the line-up by playing him in the OF a couple of times each week. IMO, Mesoraco is clearly the only choice on the roster to form the middle of the order trio along with Votto and Bruce. I also recognize that Hanigan is a superior defender behind the plate, is probably a better offensive player than Ludwick or Heisey and the staff works well when he is out there, so I don't really want to cut into his playing time so that Chris Heisey or Ryan Ludwick can play. That means one of those catchers has to play another spot once in a while. Mesoraco is clearly the catcher of the future, but right now, his bat is what is needed and getting 400 PAs in the 5 hole is the exact opposite of deflating his value.

It worked for Yogi Berra who played 20 games in the OF at age 22 and 46 at age 23 while catching part time in a tandem similar to what the Reds have with Mes and Hanigan. Yogi had 10 limited appearances in the OF in the minor leagues before the Yankees made the decision to get him in the line-up more often however they could (and he certainly was no gazelle). With 20 or so weeks left in the season, sticking Mes in LF twice per week would be right in line with the workload Yogi got in the OF as a young player. Yogi's bat was in there though and it didn't harm his future as the every day catcher a couple of years later after he'd learned the ropes of his staff and the league and the Yankees other options moved on or faded away. Those early games in the OF didn't hurt his value any or perhaps I imagined his plaque in the HOF the times I was there.

As for the defense, IMO the alternatives are:

1. to play Mes more behind the plate with Hanigan sitting more. Hanigan is a superior defender and, IMO, this team and staff need him behind the plate working with the pitchers who are comfortable with him. Upsetting that would do more harm to the team's run prevention than having a liability in LF.

2. to put Fraizer at 3B to boost the offense. This move on its own doesn't fix the middle of the order because Frazier, despite his recent hot streak, just isn't middle of the order material IMO. To have a similar impact to keeping Mes in there, it would probably need to be coupled with

3. subbing Heisey for Stubbs against RHP. Heisey is OK in CF on a spot basis, and while I think Stubbs defensive prowess is a tad overblown here, he's clearly far superior to Heisey. I was all for Heisey getting a large percentage of the PT in CF, but I think its become clear that he'd be a significant downgrade and probably not someone I'd want out there regularly.

IMO, I'd rather have a liability in LF than to downgrade significantly in more important spots like behind the plate, 3B or CF and to have a simialr impact on the offense, it may require downgrading at more than one of those spots. Fix the middle of the order and I think they can carry defensive specialists like Rolen and Stubbs in the line-up.

dougdirt
05-08-2012, 02:34 PM
1. to play Mes more behind the plate with Hanigan sitting more. Hanigan is a superior defender and, IMO, this team and staff need him behind the plate working with the pitchers who are comfortable with him. Upsetting that would do more harm to the team's run prevention than having a liability in LF.

You know, I keep hearing people saying this. I have to ask, if this is what is going to happen, Mesoraco is never going to play more than 2-3 times a week. If Mesoraco is your catcher of the future, you need to get him in there catching everyone, not just 'his two guys'. I just really don't like the handling of Mesoraco at all. It doesn't make sense.

Brutus
05-08-2012, 05:39 PM
You know, I keep hearing people saying this. I have to ask, if this is what is going to happen, Mesoraco is never going to play more than 2-3 times a week. If Mesoraco is your catcher of the future, you need to get him in there catching everyone, not just 'his two guys'. I just really don't like the handling of Mesoraco at all. It doesn't make sense.

Didn't he DH a fair amount the last couple of years? I think it makes perfect sense not to wear down a young catcher as a rookie. Personally, I like easing a guy in at that position.

dougdirt
05-08-2012, 05:47 PM
He caught 97 games in the minors last year, then had 16 in the Majors. So he is at a career high of 113 games caught. This year, he might catch 70 if Hanigan stays healthy.

_Sir_Charles_
05-08-2012, 08:19 PM
I've said it before and I'll say it again, I want to see Hanigan higher up in the lineup. He doesn't have power, but he knows how to get on base, he's a tough out, he's difficult to strike out and he doesn't hit into double plays. Get him out of the 8 hole role.

We all know that Dusty is going to insist on splitting up Bruce & Votto (no matter how dumb it is) so I'd like to see what Hanny & Mes can do in that role. I don't think many here would complain about Mesoraco hitting cleanup, but it might take some arm-twisting to convince people of Hanigan there. I think that duo would be better suited there than at the bottom of the order and certainly better suited there than Phillips or Rolen. Stubbs is kinda intriguing for clean-up, but his contact rate makes me shy away from there.

I know it's unusual, but I really think the C's could pull it off.

Degenerate39
05-08-2012, 08:28 PM
1. Phillips
2. Stubbs
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Hanigan/Mes
6. Cozart
7. Rolen
8. Heisey/Ludwick/Frazier
9. Pitcher

_Sir_Charles_
05-08-2012, 08:38 PM
1. Phillips
2. Stubbs
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Hanigan/Mes
6. Cozart
7. Rolen
8. Heisey/Ludwick/Frazier
9. Pitcher

I'd like that, but as I said before, Dusty's gonna break up the lefties. I also don't care for Frazier in LF. He needs to be playing 3rd. We know he can handle it, but to improve he needs more reps there. I think until we get somebody new, we're gonna sink or swim with the Heisey/Ludwick combo.

mth123
05-08-2012, 08:41 PM
You know, I keep hearing people saying this. I have to ask, if this is what is going to happen, Mesoraco is never going to play more than 2-3 times a week. If Mesoraco is your catcher of the future, you need to get him in there catching everyone, not just 'his two guys'. I just really don't like the handling of Mesoraco at all. It doesn't make sense.

He'll be fine. He'll still be learning the league's hitters and the umpires (huge for a catcher) and he'll have plenty of time to learn the pitchers on the staff. Right now, Mes and Hanigan are two of the 5 or 6 best position players on the roster. To maximize the talent to win this year, Hanigan needs to continue in his current role and the team needs Mes' bat in the middle of the line-up even on most of the days when Hanigan is catching.

Mesoraco can settle the issue of the RH Middle of the order bat to go with Votto and Bruce and the team can focus on building a balanced roster with guys who get on base and guys who can hit against RHP instead of hoarding low to mid OBP, medium power, righty bats (Phillips, Stubbs, Ludwick, Heisey, Rolen, Frazier) in hopes of stumbling upon that guy to hit between Votto and Bruce.

jojo
05-12-2012, 06:33 PM
Break up the lefties? Why? I say let 'em bring in a lefty to face Votto.

mdccclxix
05-16-2012, 11:32 AM
Dusty has to be frustrated with the bottom half of the order. It sucks not having Ramon in some ways. There's really not much you can do with the lineup that he hasn't already tried, other than Bruce to cleanup - and I suspect that's coming by early June...back to the way things "should" be, which is:

BP
_
Votto
Bruce
_
_
_
_
P

It looks like the best hope for Stubbs K rate is indeed batting in front of Votto. I just wish there was more versitilty on the roster to sit Stubbs against strikeout pitchers, he's got no chance there. I can see how a player like Podsednick has interested the Reds before - a contact hitter for 4th OF.

I think the C position might as well hit 5th since its got a chance to OPS .800.

The rest of the roster is low OBP/decent SLG right handers. Let them see what they can scrap together in the 6-7-8 holes. Swing hard boys.

BP
Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
C
OF
3B
SS

klw
05-16-2012, 11:37 AM
Well there is this:

1 Hanigan- high OBP
2 Stubbs- seems to like the spot
3 Votto
4 Bruce -stop fretting about the occasional LOOGY and do it
5 Frazier- high slugging, could flip with Hi-C
6 Phillips
7 Heisey
8 Cozart- could be flipped with Stubbs if Stubbs doesn't stay hot in the 2 slot.
9 Pitcher

Emphasis is to get high OBP early and high slugging in the middle.

dougdirt
05-16-2012, 11:38 AM
Dusty has to be frustrated with the bottom half of the order. It sucks not having Ramon in some ways. There's really not much you can do with the lineup that he hasn't already tried, other than Bruce to cleanup - and I suspect that's coming by early June...back to the way things "should" be, which is:

BP
_
Votto
Bruce
_
_
_
_
P

It looks like the best hope for Stubbs K rate is indeed batting in front of Votto. I just wish there was more versitilty on the roster to sit Stubbs against strikeout pitchers, he's got no chance there. I can see how a player like Podsednick has interested the Reds before - a contact hitter for 4th OF.

I think the C position might as well hit 5th since its got a chance to OPS .800.

The rest of the roster is low OBP/decent SLG right handers. Let them see what they can scrap together in the 6-7-8 holes. Swing hard boys.

BP
Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
C
OF
3B
SS

Of course Stubbs is striking out less, but he isn't walking anymore and his OPS sucks. Being aggressive early has done two things.... improved his strikeout rate and hurt his overall offensive performance.

klw
05-16-2012, 11:55 AM
I just noticed that the Reds' 9th hitters are out OPS'ing the #1 hitters.


NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Batting #1 35 153 15 23 6 0 2 4 9 35 .150 .198 .229 .426
Batting #2 35 146 25 43 10 2 4 16 9 37 .295 .340 .473 .812
Batting #3 35 119 21 37 16 0 5 24 34 29 .311 .465 .571 1.036
Batting #4 35 137 17 29 5 1 2 13 11 20 .212 .278 .307 .585
Batting #5 35 132 19 36 12 1 9 25 13 30 .273 .331 .583 .914
Batting #6 35 136 4 30 9 0 3 22 7 33 .221 .264 .353 .617
Batting #7 35 131 15 33 5 3 3 9 8 29 .252 .295 .405 .700
Batting #8 35 120 11 32 5 0 1 6 12 18 .267 .336 .333 .669
Batting #9 35 116 7 20 4 1 1 9 3 45 .172 .190 .250 .440

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/splits/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds

Edit: It is being driven by the success of the Reds' pinch hitters so far.


As P 35 63 1 6 0 0 0 3 1 29 .095 .108 .095 .203
As PH (not DH) 31 44 3 14 4 2 0 7 3 9 .318 .354 .500 .854

mdccclxix
05-16-2012, 11:55 AM
Stubbs is a better 7 hitter, but on a team full of them, his speed makes some sense near the top, traditionally I guess. There isn't a hitter that couldn't benefit from hitting in front of Votto, but even of those available you won't find great OBP. You're right about Stubbs though. He's got the best shot at OBP .350, but we'll see if he can do it.

mdccclxix
05-16-2012, 11:59 AM
I just noticed that the Reds 9th hitters are out OPS'ing the #1 hitters.


NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Batting #1 35 153 15 23 6 0 2 4 9 35 .150 .198 .229 .426
Batting #2 35 146 25 43 10 2 4 16 9 37 .295 .340 .473 .812
Batting #3 35 119 21 37 16 0 5 24 34 29 .311 .465 .571 1.036
Batting #4 35 137 17 29 5 1 2 13 11 20 .212 .278 .307 .585
Batting #5 35 132 19 36 12 1 9 25 13 30 .273 .331 .583 .914
Batting #6 35 136 4 30 9 0 3 22 7 33 .221 .264 .353 .617
Batting #7 35 131 15 33 5 3 3 9 8 29 .252 .295 .405 .700
Batting #8 35 120 11 32 5 0 1 6 12 18 .267 .336 .333 .669
Batting #9 35 116 7 20 4 1 1 9 3 45 .172 .190 .250 .440

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/splits/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds

We're getting close to seeing Leake batting 4th as well!

My gosh, that is pathetic. Get BP out of cleanup, back to leadoff. You've got Costanzo, our hero, so bat Votto and Bruce back to back.

_Sir_Charles_
05-16-2012, 12:46 PM
Hanigan...1, 2 or 4. 4 only if we insist on breaking up Joey & Jay. I prefer Phillips leading off, so Hanny at the 2 spot is my preference.

HotCorner
05-16-2012, 01:05 PM
My "Out of the Box" lineup ..

Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Heisey
Cozart
Frazier
Hannigan/Mes

This lineup "solves" the leadoff issue due to Votto's presences in the #2 spot. It also increases the # of AB's for Bruce. I'd like to see our two best hitters come to the plate more often.

mdccclxix
05-16-2012, 01:58 PM
My "Out of the Box" lineup ..

Stubbs
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Heisey
Cozart
Frazier
Hannigan/Mes

This lineup "solves" the leadoff issue due to Votto's presences in the #2 spot. It also increases the # of AB's for Bruce. I'd like to see our two best hitters come to the plate more often.

Maybe bat the catcher or SS 9th too?

mdccclxix
05-18-2012, 08:25 AM
During yesterday's game I heard Jeff Brantly stumping for Hannigan to bat 2nd, I couldn't hardly believe what I was hearing. He said his OBP and ability to hit the other way makes him the perfect 2 hole hitter. This was right after Votto hit a HR with no one on base (Stubbs struck out).

Plus Plus
05-18-2012, 08:48 PM
I would really like to know (as I posted in the game thread), what it would take for the lineup to change so that the two people hitting in front of Votto aren't #1 and #2 in strikeouts for the team and possessing OBPs of .277 and .290 (entering today's game). It's just silly.

dougdirt
05-18-2012, 08:48 PM
I would really like to know (as I posted in the game thread), what it would take for the lineup to change so that the two people hitting in front of Votto aren't #1 and #2 in strikeouts for the team and possessing OBPs of .277 and .290 (entering today's game). It's just silly.

A new manager.

Plus Plus
05-18-2012, 08:52 PM
A new manager.

It's beyond ridiculous with those two players struggling so mightily and guys like Hanigan playing well.

The Bruce and cleanup thing is another thing, but the 1 and 2 spots are incredibly mind-numbing as those two guys are effectively the two worst possible non-pitchers for those spots in the lineup.

CesarGeronimo
05-18-2012, 09:39 PM
It's beyond ridiculous with those two players struggling so mightily and guys like Hanigan playing well.

The Bruce and cleanup thing is another thing, but the 1 and 2 spots are incredibly mind-numbing as those two guys are effectively the two worst possible non-pitchers for those spots in the lineup.

My question is why Dusty's limits this approach to non-pitchers. When Cueto is pitching, why not put him the 1 or 2 spot? That guy can fly! Dusty could take his philosophy to the next level if he would bat Stubbs first and Cueto second, have them both hit left-handed so they can get to first base faster, and make extra sure they stay aggressive, swinging - or, if anyone is on base, sacrifice bunting - at every pitch.

Kc61
05-18-2012, 11:39 PM
A new manager.

Alas, as a Dusty fan and admirer, I have come to agree that the Reds need a change. I'd like to see Dusty retire with honors, and somebody else take over.

I just can't handle the same patterns in losing ballgames. Even if the Reds don't need a change, I need a change.

I was at the game tonight. While it probably didn't affect the outcome, I knew Arroyo shouldn't have pitched the 8th inning.

For years now, even when he is good, Bronson has been a 90 pitch pitcher. He fades noticeably after that. Bronson usually admits it himself, saying he was "gassed" after the game.

I'm just a fan on the internet. If I know this, why doesn't the manager of the team? Or the pitching coach.

I sat there wondering where Arredondo was. He was the obvious guy, he didn't work yesterday.

I hate to blame Dusty, I really do admire the guy, but I would like to see some different patterns, some changes in the usage of these players. Just to mix things up a little.

Was really anxious to see this game tonight, very disappointed.

I thought Bronson did a fine job through seven. I also think Heisey is hitting the ball well and deserves credit for that.

Lineup construction? It's really the personnel. But Hanigan hitting eighth or ninth or whatever doesn't make any sense to me. He is one of the few contact hitters, patient hitters, burying him in the lineup because he is a catcher, I just can't agree with that.

Hitting Cozart first and Hanigan eighth is backwards to me. People make fun of CF first, SS second. My pet peeve is catcher eighth. Why?

Get 'em tomorrow.

mdccclxix
05-19-2012, 12:37 AM
I think this team's bench needs to be put on notice and stay there until the division is locked up. There's a lot of hanging heads and quiet resignation going on. Perhaps a lack of confidence? An acclimation to .500 ball? I don't know. Something's off by quite a bit.

CesarGeronimo
05-19-2012, 12:39 AM
I think this team's bench needs to be put on notice and stay there until the division is locked up. There's a lot of hanging heads and quiet resignation going on. Perhaps a lack of confidence? An acclimation to .500 ball? I don't know. Something's off by quite a bit.

Sounds like a good time for a leadership change.

jojo
05-19-2012, 12:52 PM
A new manager.

How about Manny Acta (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/acta-and-chernoff-optimizing-the-indians-offense/)?


ďThe main thing is scoring runs, so you need to stack up your best hitters up front. You forget about trying to put a guy in the second spot just because he can hit-and-run and bunt. After the first six hitters, you should put your best hitters in front of the [lesser] hitters. The bottom of your order should be the bottom. Iíve never been a big believer in the idea of having a second leadoff hitter. I donít like putting a guy in the nine-hole who should be hitting in the seven- or eight-hole. To me, you have to maximize at bats. Your better hitters should have a shot at getting that extra at bat.Ē


ďSpeed at the top is important, but it doesnít do you any good if you canít get on base. Itís been proven over the years. Guys like Wade Boggs had no speed, but if you have a high on-base guy, you have a better chance of scoring runs than if you have a guy leading off who canít steal first base. The guy who hits first obviously has to be an on-base-percentage guy. Then you go from there.Ē

RedsManRick
05-19-2012, 01:11 PM
I'd love Acta, but he's going to have a hard time finding a good OBP guy to stick at the top of his lineup here.

jojo
05-19-2012, 01:18 PM
Hanigan is the managain with his career OBP of .371!

_Sir_Charles_
05-19-2012, 01:50 PM
Hanigan is the managain with his career OBP of .371!

I've said it time and time again. He should be MUCH higher in the batting order. 1st, 2nd or 4th. I like Phillips leading off. If we insist on splitting Votto & Bruce, Hanigan in the 4 hole and Stubbs in the 2 slot. If we don't split them, Hanigan in the 2 hole and Bruce followed by Stubbs 4 & 5. Possibly Stubbs lower. But the first 4 that way for sure.

Vottomatic
05-19-2012, 01:50 PM
I watched the game at a sportsbar last night and the fans around me were grumbling loud and clear about Dusty and his lineups. Even the fans have a lack of confidence in this team from what I saw.

Plus Plus
05-19-2012, 01:55 PM
I'd love Acta, but he's going to have a hard time finding a good OBP guy to stick at the top of his lineup here.

Acta is going to be under contract through 2013, barring being fired by the Indians.

Degenerate39
05-20-2012, 04:02 PM
1. Heisey
2. Hanigan
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Phillips
6. Stubbs
7. Cozart
8. Frazier

westofyou
05-20-2012, 04:55 PM
I watched the game at a sportsbar last night and the fans around me were grumbling loud and clear about Dusty and his lineups. Even the fans have a lack of confidence in this team from what I saw.

More proof of what?

That beer makes everyone an expert on any subject?

Vottomatic
05-20-2012, 07:28 PM
More proof of what?

That beer makes everyone an expert on any subject?

Like it or not, the fans aren't happy with Dusty. I know you're his biggest fan, but the majority don't like him.

There was Shoeless Jackson and now there's Clueless Dusty. :D

His lineups are some of the worst I've ever seen. And the majority thinks so too. I don't know anyone who supports Dusty, so you make the first one.

Oh, and Bob Castellini. No wonder this team failed in 2011 and 2012 looks like 2011.

corkedbat
05-20-2012, 08:00 PM
Question that just came to me. If the Reds were to somehow go out and land a big left-handed bat (let's just say Josh Hamilton for sake of discussion) and Joey stayed in the third spot in the lineup, would Dusty bat Hamilton fifth and Bruce seventh just to "break up them lefties"?

cincrazy
05-20-2012, 08:21 PM
Like it or not, the fans aren't happy with Dusty. I know you're his biggest fan, but the majority don't like him.

There was Shoeless Jackson and now there's Clueless Dusty. :D

His lineups are some of the worst I've ever seen. And the majority thinks so too. I don't know anyone who supports Dusty, so you make the first one.

Oh, and Bob Castellini. No wonder this team failed in 2011 and 2012 looks like 2011.

I don't know how you can even question Bob Castellini's committment to this team. He's one of, if not the best, small market owners in all of baseball. Sometimes years just don't pan out. Even for teams like the Yankees.

westofyou
05-20-2012, 08:33 PM
Like it or not, the fans aren't happy with Dusty. I know you're his biggest fan, but the majority don't like him.

There was Shoeless Jackson and now there's Clueless Dusty. :D

His lineups are some of the worst I've ever seen. And the majority thinks so too. I don't know anyone who supports Dusty, so you make the first one.

Oh, and Bob Castellini. No wonder this team failed in 2011 and 2012 looks like 2011.

Good thing for Dusty that managing is more than filing out the lineup card, and I guess too bad for the crowd at BW3 on that note too

I don't recall ever saying I was Dusty's biggest fan, nor do I care what the "others" think about him

As for the nick name... Really?

edabbs44
05-20-2012, 08:37 PM
Like it or not, the fans aren't happy with Dusty. I know you're his biggest fan, but the majority don't like him.

There was Shoeless Jackson and now there's Clueless Dusty. :D

His lineups are some of the worst I've ever seen. And the majority thinks so too. I don't know anyone who supports Dusty, so you make the first one.

Oh, and Bob Castellini. No wonder this team failed in 2011 and 2012 looks like 2011.

You seem to be too worried about what "others" think about Dusty.

edabbs44
05-20-2012, 08:38 PM
Question that just came to me. If the Reds were to somehow go out and land a big left-handed bat (let's just say Josh Hamilton for sake of discussion) and Joey stayed in the third spot in the lineup, would Dusty bat Hamilton fifth and Bruce seventh just to "break up them lefties"?

Probably. Or hit Bruce 7th and Hamilton 9th.

I would imagine that he would be better than that.

Vottomatic
05-20-2012, 08:51 PM
You seem to be too worried about what "others" think about Dusty.

Worried?

I don't care what others think. I just listen and pick up on the pulse of a crowd. Kind of hard to ignore loud comments.

corkedbat
05-20-2012, 11:20 PM
As a gross generalization, I've always believed in a pretty standard model of lineup construction. The core of your lineup (3-6) comes from the corners (first, third, left and right) and at least three of those should be strong to elite, near All-Star level OPS/Run Producers.

For the past two or three years, the Reds have had two - Votto and bruce that I feel fall in that category. I personally have always believed that having that third big bat in the lineup is vital to take the pressure off the other two. While its tough. I believe that addng that other big bat would greatly improve the club's chances of winning the division.

As for the other four spots in the line (1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th), for the most part, the catcher would usually be in one of the two spots of at the bottom (often because of lack of speed) and I'm OK with using the eight-hole for a more glove/less stick guy. That means that two of 2B, SS and CF IMO should be guys capable of at least a .350+ ops (nearer a .370+ would be more ideal) - some slugging would be helpful and speed (as long as it comes with the ability to steal bases with an 80% success rate).

As far as as the current Reds go? I'd be willing to put Votto and Bruce in the strong to elite run producer category. The problem from there is the remaining starters Phillips, Cozart, Frazanzo, Heiswick and Hannaraco are all bats that belong in the 6-8 slots in the lineup. I guess I could live with Phillips or Cozart in the two-hole, but the club really needs at least one guy at the top of the order capable of getting on base at a viable leadoff-hitter pace.

It's quite apparent (and has been for some time now to many on this board) that the need for a leadoff hitter and someone to help protect Votto and Bruce in the lineup, yet little seems to have been done to encourage/develop high OBP players in the Reds system and there has been almost an willful neglect of corner OFers with power in the Reds drafts the last five seasons.

I think any GM would not rest or consider their team ready for battle with out tow high-OBP guys at the top of the lineup and at the very least, three solid run-producing bats to follow him. It has been the same with the Reds for the past three or four season though and what have they done? Signed Brandon Phillips (who they will continue to bat in one of the vital top four spots) to a needless extension.

RedsManRick
05-21-2012, 01:18 AM
I recall the Rays making the playoffs with a slow catcher with a good OBP leading off in 2010 (John Jaso). I really wish somebody like Fay would ask Dusty why Hanigan and his career .370 OBP can't lead off.

WVRedsFan
05-21-2012, 01:21 AM
Just read through the thread. Most agree that we need high OBP folks at the top, bangers in spots 3-6, and your Seder hitters and the pitcher for the bottom third of the order. Many have proposed Heisey as the lead off man, and we saw how that worked out today (I know, small sample size). Heisey is at .300 as is Phillips. No good choice there. Forget Mes
and Hanigan. Catchers don't have the foot speed or agility. truth is, we don't have such a guy. Votto is great in the three hole, but Phillips is miscast in cleanup. Bruce is ideal, but his long slumps would make him ineffective. Still I do that. Ludwig is ideal for the fifth spot. I'm one who believes with enough playing time, he would give us 20 Hr and 70 RBI's. Fact is, this team, using current stats, is poorly constructed. But it doesn't have to be given proper lineup construction. Bat Phillips, Heisey (when he plays--I do not believe he's an everyday player) and Stubbs at the top of the order when possible. Keep Votto where he is and bat Bruce cleanup. Get Ludwig lots of at bats. Bat Hanigan and Mes in the 7 hole and Frazier eighth.

One more thing. As many of you know, I was an advocate for firing McKeon, Boone, Miley, and Narron in hopes it would make a difference. It didn't. Unless we get some genuine players, especially the OBP guys and a true cleanup hitter (assuming Jay fails there--I think he should get a chance), and a solid bench which includes some decent hitters, it makes no difference who the manager is. With all the problems, we're two over .500, which is admirable for a club with so many defensicies. And only a half game behind the hated Cards.

WMR
05-21-2012, 01:30 AM
Fastest guys at the top, CF and SS are preferable. I thought everybody knew this? :doh:

reds44
05-21-2012, 01:52 AM
Hanigan
Cozart
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Frazier
Heisey
Stubbs

When Mes plays:
Heisey
Cozart
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Frazier
Stubbs
Mes

Vottomatic
05-21-2012, 07:42 AM
Just read through the thread. Most agree that we need high OBP folks at the top, bangers in spots 3-6, and your Seder hitters and the pitcher for the bottom third of the order. Many have proposed Heisey as the lead off man, and we saw how that worked out today (I know, small sample size). Heisey is at .300 as is Phillips. No good choice there. Forget Mes
and Hanigan. Catchers don't have the foot speed or agility. truth is, we don't have such a guy. Votto is great in the three hole, but Phillips is miscast in cleanup. Bruce is ideal, but his long slumps would make him ineffective. Still I do that. Ludwig is ideal for the fifth spot. I'm one who believes with enough playing time, he would give us 20 Hr and 70 RBI's. Fact is, this team, using current stats, is poorly constructed. But it doesn't have to be given proper lineup construction. Bat Phillips, Heisey (when he plays--I do not believe he's an everyday player) and Stubbs at the top of the order when possible. Keep Votto where he is and bat Bruce cleanup. Get Ludwig lots of at bats. Bat Hanigan and Mes in the 7 hole and Frazier eighth.

One more thing. As many of you know, I was an advocate for firing McKeon, Boone, Miley, and Narron in hopes it would make a difference. It didn't. Unless we get some genuine players, especially the OBP guys and a true cleanup hitter (assuming Jay fails there--I think he should get a chance), and a solid bench which includes some decent hitters, it makes no difference who the manager is. With all the problems, we're two over .500, which is admirable for a club with so many defensicies. And only a half game behind the hated Cards.

Good post.

I've been mostly dismayed with the poorly constructed roster, which has lead to poorly constructed lineups. Which blames management first and then the manager.

One can argue the players, but if hitters don't get on ahead of Votto, who is he going to hit in? And if opposing managers/pitchers would rather pitch to Ludwick/Heisey rather than Votto and pitch around Votto, can you blame them? If Stubbs is a known strikeout guy like Mark Reynolds, can we expect him to change much in one year? And many other questions..........

It just seems like there are alot of knowns about this team, which leads to alot of holes. And they have been there since 2010 or before.

I guess being small market means these problems will not be addressed with the extensions of Votto and BP. We're stuck with this mess.

edabbs44
05-21-2012, 09:21 AM
I recall the Rays making the playoffs with a slow catcher with a good OBP leading off in 2010 (John Jaso). I really wish somebody like Fay would ask Dusty why Hanigan and his career .370 OBP can't lead off.

What would you estimate Ryan's OBP to be in the lead off slot?

puca
05-21-2012, 09:35 AM
Hanigan
Cozart
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Frazier
Heisey
Stubbs

When Mes plays:
Heisey
Cozart
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Frazier
Stubbs
Mes

Heisey's career OBP is lower than Stubbs. And that is with many of the matchups being cherry-picked for him. Phillips is their best option to lead off. Actually there is no other decent option.

Against RH starter I would go:
Phillips, Hanniroco ,Votto, Bruce, Frazier,...

Against LH starter I would go:
Phillips, Hanniroco , Votto, Frazier, Bruce, ...

RedsManRick
05-21-2012, 12:40 PM
What would you estimate Ryan's OBP to be in the lead off slot?

I'd guess in the .350 range. Reading between the lines, you're skeptical he can keep getting on base batting leadoff.

But he's got a .313/.396/.412 line batting 7th in his career, so there's at least some evidence it's not just an issue of being pitched around.

Perhaps more to that point
- He hasn't historically seen more/less pitches in than average and he's only seen a few percentage points more
- He's seen basically the same percentage of fastballs as average
- Of the 394 batters with 1000+ PA since 2006 (Hanigan's rookie year), Hanigan has the 12th highest Contact rate and 58th lowest O-Swing%

He is an elite contact hitter with above average discipline. And guys like him hit for average and get on base. What he doesn't have is power. Maybe he draws a bit fewer walks as he doesn't get pitched around like he has on occasion. But when pitchers start challenging him more often, he's got the skill set to either put good stuff in the zone in play or lay off the breaking stuff.

_Sir_Charles_
05-21-2012, 12:48 PM
O-swing %? I don't know that one.

Swinging outside the zone maybe?

dougdirt
05-21-2012, 12:51 PM
O-swing %? I don't know that one.

Swinging outside the zone maybe?

Yes. Outside the zone swinging percentage.

REDREAD
05-21-2012, 01:03 PM
.

I was at the game tonight. While it probably didn't affect the outcome, I knew Arroyo shouldn't have pitched the 8th inning.
.

We all knew Arroyo was getting tired. However, the Reds were losing and the bullpen was gassed. Even after Bronson gave up the first HR, it made sense to try to get through the inning with Bronson.

Bronson gave the pen some rest, which helped us win the next two games.

I think this was a good decision by Dusty. Sometimes the manager has to look at the long term. The Reds were probably going to lose that game whether Bronson stayed in or not. (The final score seems to validate that).

Vottomatic
05-21-2012, 01:13 PM
We all knew Arroyo was getting tired. However, the Reds were losing and the bullpen was gassed. Even after Bronson gave up the first HR, it made sense to try to get through the inning with Bronson.

Bronson gave the pen some rest, which helped us win the next two games.

I think this was a good decision by Dusty. Sometimes the manager has to look at the long term. The Reds were probably going to lose that game whether Bronson stayed in or not. (The final score seems to validate that).

Dusty has hung Arroyo out to dry wayyy too many times since he's been the manager.

bucksfan2
05-21-2012, 01:28 PM
Dusty has hung Arroyo out to dry wayyy too many times since he's been the manager.

Kinda ironic that Dusty has hung him out to dry yet Arroyo has never missed a start in his career as a Red.

Score more than 0 runs against a 40 year old coming off a two year retiement and you may have a gripe.

CySeymour
05-21-2012, 01:53 PM
Whew! The Reds march into Yankee Stadium and win 2 of 3, and still no one seems happy.

Anyway, my 2 cents: If Dusty absolutely insists on breaking up Votto and Bruce, then I say do it with Votto hitting second and Bruce hitting 4th.

redsmetz
05-21-2012, 03:05 PM
Whew! The Reds march into Yankee Stadium and win 2 of 3, and still no one seems happy.

Anyway, my 2 cents: If Dusty absolutely insists on breaking up Votto and Bruce, then I say do it with Votto hitting second and Bruce hitting 4th.

Interesting thought and outside the box. Who would you have bat lead off in that line-up? I think Stubbs has done well batting in front of Joey, but what do others think under this unusual scenario?

_Sir_Charles_
05-21-2012, 05:42 PM
Yes. Outside the zone swinging percentage.

Lucky guess. Thanks.

Vottomatic
05-21-2012, 06:51 PM
Kinda ironic that Dusty has hung him out to dry yet Arroyo has never missed a start in his career as a Red.

Score more than 0 runs against a 40 year old coming off a two year retiement and you may have a gripe.

April 23rd, 2008 vs. Houston - 3 IP, 8 ER
May 4th, 2008 at Atlanta - 1 IP, 7 ER
June 24th, 2008 at Toronto - 1 IP, 10 ER

April 25th, 2009 vs. Atlanta - 5 IP, 9 ER
May 6th, 2009 vs. Milwaukee - 1 IP, 9 ER

April 23rd, 2010 vs. San Diego - 3 IP, 8 ER
May 31st, 2010 at St. Louis - 4 IP, 7 ER
July 21st, 2010 vs. Washington - 5 IP, 7 ER

May 23rd, 2011 at Philly - 2 IP, 9 ER
July 1st, 2011 vs. Cleveland - 4 IP, 8 ER

What kind of manager leaves their starter in to absorb 7 to 10 runs in a short stint? Ridiculous.

Crumbley
05-21-2012, 07:43 PM
April 23rd, 2008 vs. Houston - 3 IP, 8 ER
May 4th, 2008 at Atlanta - 1 IP, 7 ER
June 24th, 2008 at Toronto - 1 IP, 10 ER

April 25th, 2009 vs. Atlanta - 5 IP, 9 ER
May 6th, 2009 vs. Milwaukee - 1 IP, 9 ER

April 23rd, 2010 vs. San Diego - 3 IP, 8 ER
May 31st, 2010 at St. Louis - 4 IP, 7 ER
July 21st, 2010 vs. Washington - 5 IP, 7 ER

May 23rd, 2011 at Philly - 2 IP, 9 ER
July 1st, 2011 vs. Cleveland - 4 IP, 8 ER

What kind of manager leaves their starter in to absorb 7 to 10 runs in a short stint? Ridiculous.
One who cares more about winning than a guy's stat line at the end of the year. I give Arroyo a lot of credit too for hanging in there.

IslandRed
05-21-2012, 08:15 PM
I was gonna say, in that class of "veteran innings-eaters who are okay but not great," the occasional stat-line doozy is just par for the course. When a guy's 30+ years old and has proven over time he's not going to curl up and cry for mommy when he has a bad outing, he doesn't get or require the kid-glove treatment. He'll get the chance to pitch out of early jams and get deeper into the game. Every now and then, he doesn't.

westofyou
05-21-2012, 09:31 PM
I was gonna say, in that class of "veteran innings-eaters who are okay but not great," the occasional stat-line doozy is just par for the course. When a guy's 30+ years old and has proven over time he's not going to curl up and cry for mommy when he has a bad outing, he doesn't get or require the kid-glove treatment. He'll get the chance to pitch out of early jams and get deeper into the game. Every now and then, he doesn't.

That's why it's the major leagues, this sort of stuff has and will go on forever

Acting as it were a malady only attributed to Dusty is just picking knits