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DGullett35
05-06-2012, 07:26 PM
The Reds bullpen has been lights out, and possibly may be the best pen in the bigs. I was surprised however that the Orioles had the best bullpen ERA, and can you believe that the Texas Rangers pen has pitched 73.2 innings and have given up only 7BB?? That is ridiculous.


Redlegs Bullpen Stats:
6-4, 2.41ERA, 5saves, 78.1IP, 56H, 21ER, 6HR, 36BB. Opponents are hitting an even .200 and their WHIP is 1.17

The Big 4:
Arredondo: 2-0, 2.13ERA, 12.2IP, 8H, 3ER, 9BB, 14SO, .186AVE.
(Finally throwing his splitter for strikes and using out of the zone to get guys out)
Ondrusek: 2-0, 0.00ERA, 12.0IP, 6H, 0ER, 5BB, 10SO, .146AVE.
(solid as always as long as he is not used too much and burnt out)
Chapman: 2-0, 0.00ERA, 14.2IP, 5H, 0ER, 4BB, 25SO, .102AVE.
(Amazing, almost 2Ks an inning and hes not just relying on a 107MPH fastball)
Marshall: 0-2, 4.82ERA, 9.1IP, 10H, 5ER, 3BB, 12SO, .270AVE. 5saves
(A couple curveballs away from having excellent numbers, at lkeast his 9th innings are less dramatic than CoCo's:))

Simon has 12 SO in 10.2IP, and a 2.53ERA. Hes turned out to be a very good pickup. Hoover has stepped in nicely also pitching 4.2 innings with 5 strike outs. Just think about how good this pen could have been with Madson?? When Masset and Bray get healthy this pen is going to be even better and have more depth.

RedsManRick
05-06-2012, 07:47 PM
4th in ERA. 4th in xFIP. Pretty, pretty good.

kaldaniels
05-06-2012, 07:51 PM
I don't like what-ifs, but how much better would the numbers look if Pagan hadn't hit that 4th strike 3 run HR.

fearofpopvol1
05-06-2012, 07:54 PM
They have a scoreless streak going as well, I think. Isn't it 20+ innings of shutout pitching? Pretty awesome!

Brutus
05-06-2012, 07:57 PM
I really like what I see. I hope they can get Bray/Masset back fairly soon. As well as Chapman is pitching, I still can't help but hope he winds up in the rotation later this month.

RedEye
05-06-2012, 09:47 PM
I really like what I see. I hope they can get Bray/Masset back fairly soon. As well as Chapman is pitching, I still can't help but hope he winds up in the rotation later this month.

Absolutely. I realize this is currently a necessity given injuries, but if it continues all year it seems like a colossal waste of resources by the team.

Kc61
05-06-2012, 11:36 PM
I really like what I see. I hope they can get Bray/Masset back fairly soon. As well as Chapman is pitching, I still can't help but hope he winds up in the rotation later this month.

I don't see Masset or Bray coming back that soon and I don't see the Reds changing their current rotation real soon.

Chapman is, in effect, Ryan Madson and I think it will stay that way for awhile.

My guess is that Chapman will replace Arroyo in the rotation next year. Bronson has one more year left, he should be tradeable this off-season, he'd probably agree if the destination is reasonable.

Not discussing preferences here, just my expectation.

And the Reds' staff now has a 3.25 ERA, fourth in the NL, so at least this arrangement is working out so far this year.

redsfan30
05-07-2012, 12:19 PM
Can you imagine how filthy this bullpen would be had Ryan Madson not injured himself?

Kc61
05-07-2012, 12:24 PM
One very hopeful sign -

Logan O leads the Reds with 13 relief appearances. This is well down the list, in MLB there are relievers with 16 appearances already.

If Dusty can avoid overusing these relievers, it will be a tremendous advantage in the second half. So far, so good. The starters pitching deep into games is a help of course.

DGullett35
05-07-2012, 01:23 PM
5 straight quality starts by our starters really helps. the bullpen should be well rested from the week they've had. One off day and a rainout. Also a complete game by Cueto. All great teams have a great bullpen, and that the Reds do have.

PuffyPig
05-07-2012, 01:48 PM
One very hopeful sign -

Logan O leads the Reds with 13 relief appearances. This is well down the list, in MLB there are relievers with 16 appearances already.

If Dusty can avoid overusing these relievers, it will be a tremendous advantage in the second half. So far, so good. The starters pitching deep into games is a help of course.

The starters pitching deep into games is 100% of the reason the bullpen is not overused.

If they falter, it's hard to blame Dusty for overusing the relievers.

If Leake can pitch a bit better (and his last start was encouraging) it should be a big help.

Plus when your starters give you 6-7 every night, you tend to use the better pitchers out of the pen. Nothing inflates a team's ERA then having your #11-12 pitchers pitch big innings.

Arroyo going from "getting his head beaten in" every second start to going 6-7 every start is the biggest difference to this year's club. I expect him to regress somewhat, but Latos should pick up the slack.

Caveat Emperor
05-07-2012, 03:50 PM
How about some love for Alfredo Simon?

He was a dumpster dive by Walt who may yet (probably will?) regress, but the team needed someone to throw innings with Bray ineffective and Masset on the DL -- and Simon (despite a rocky outing early) has been quite good:

2.53 ERA / 10.2 IP / 12 K / 4 BB

Sea Ray
05-07-2012, 04:03 PM
How about some love for Alfredo Simon?

He was a dumpster dive by Walt who may yet (probably will?) regress, but the team needed someone to throw innings with Bray ineffective and Masset on the DL -- and Simon (despite a rocky outing early) has been quite good:

2.53 ERA / 10.2 IP / 12 K / 4 BB

He sure looked downright overpowering yesterday

RedlegJake
05-07-2012, 06:14 PM
Simon and Hoover have been so good you have to give Walt major props for picking them up - its bailed out the pen so far after losing Madson, and Bray and Masset's injuries, without them it might have been a very different story.

paulrichjr
05-07-2012, 06:43 PM
He sure looked downright overpowering yesterday

Unfortunately I was at the game when Simon gave up the homerun in his first appearance. While I was complaining about how dumb Dusty was for bringing him in he struck out the next 3 batters. Since then he has looked really good. Yesterday listening to him take care of the Pirates he sounded downright nasty. Good job Walt....and...and...and you to Dusty.

traderumor
05-08-2012, 02:12 PM
Ondrusek last night was incredible. Completely overmatched the middle of the Brewers order. Marshall's curveball is as advertised. I was also noticing that the pitching staff overall is among the leaders in fewest walks, which was a big, big problem last year. Of course, one culprit (Cordero) is gone, one is injured (Masset), and the other is throwing strikes again (Chapman). Arredondo is still overly walk prone, but still, this is a nasty set of arms.

cumberlandreds
05-08-2012, 02:30 PM
How about some love for Alfredo Simon?

He was a dumpster dive by Walt who may yet (probably will?) regress, but the team needed someone to throw innings with Bray ineffective and Masset on the DL -- and Simon (despite a rocky outing early) has been quite good:

2.53 ERA / 10.2 IP / 12 K / 4 BB

I'll eat some early crow on this one. When the Reds picked him up I wondered what in ther world are they doing? But he's been really good since his first couple of outings. He blew away the Pirate hitters on Sunday.
Hoover has looked good too. Looks to have a great arm.

REDREAD
05-08-2012, 02:51 PM
I wouldn't mind seeing Hoover and Simon get a little more playing time to give Logan a little more rest.

I don't think Logan has been used to excess, but it would be nice to keep him fresh for the end of the season.

Not being critical, but last night, with the Reds up 5-1 (or maybe it was 6-1),
why not let Hoover or Simon try to get through the inning and avoid using Logan. I understand that Marshall hasn't pitched in awhile, so he needed to get work in. Again, not making a huge issue of it.. just a thought.

Vottomatic
05-08-2012, 03:06 PM
Geez. Our bullpen is so strong that I hate to mess with it.

One thing about Hoover, down the road, is that he spent alot of time in the minors starting too, and could be a replacement for Arroyo in a couple of seasons. I watched him and he throws mostly fastballs, but I did see him K someone on a breaking ball that caught the hitter off guard. How many kind of pitches does Hoover throw?

dougdirt
05-08-2012, 03:09 PM
Geez. Our bullpen is so strong that I hate to mess with it.

One thing about Hoover, down the road, is that he spent alot of time in the minors starting too, and could be a replacement for Arroyo in a couple of seasons. I watched him and he throws mostly fastballs, but I did see him K someone on a breaking ball that caught the hitter off guard. How many kind of pitches does Hoover throw?

He has a starters repertoire, but he is a fringe back end of the rotation guy, but out of the bullpen adds some velocity and his breaking ball plays up because of it (similar to Sam LeCure in that aspect).

Kc61
05-08-2012, 03:11 PM
I wouldn't mind seeing Hoover and Simon get a little more playing time to give Logan a little more rest.

I don't think Logan has been used to excess, but it would be nice to keep him fresh for the end of the season.

Not being critical, but last night, with the Reds up 5-1 (or maybe it was 6-1),
why not let Hoover or Simon try to get through the inning and avoid using Logan. I understand that Marshall hasn't pitched in awhile, so he needed to get work in. Again, not making a huge issue of it.. just a thought.

I think Hoover and Simon both pitched Sunday in the Latos game. No real need to use them two days in a row.

The question I see relates to Masset and Bray. Would they really improve this pen right now? Masset had a tough season in 2011 but got a two-year contract. Bray is effective when healthy.

I guess it's not an immediate concern, they aren't near ready apparently. But the pen right now works really well.

Vottomatic
05-08-2012, 03:21 PM
I think Hoover and Simon both pitched Sunday in the Latos game. No real need to use them two days in a row.

The question I see relates to Masset and Bray. Would they really improve this pen right now? Masset had a tough season in 2011 but got a two-year contract. Bray is effective when healthy.

I guess it's not an immediate concern, they aren't near ready apparently. But the pen right now works really well.

I had the same thoughts. Who do you replace? I would think Lecure would be the odd man out and he probably still has options.

Sea Ray
05-08-2012, 04:07 PM
I'm thinking Ondrusek looks more like a closer than Marshall. I agree we ought not change anything right now but I think we might want to consider working him in as closer at some point

Sea Ray
05-08-2012, 04:09 PM
I think Hoover and Simon both pitched Sunday in the Latos game. No real need to use them two days in a row.

The question I see relates to Masset and Bray. Would they really improve this pen right now? Masset had a tough season in 2011 but got a two-year contract. Bray is effective when healthy.

I guess it's not an immediate concern, they aren't near ready apparently. But the pen right now works really well.

We can sure use Bray but I don't see where Masset works for us right now. Quite frankly he and his inconsistencies aren't good enough for this pen anymore

RedsManRick
05-08-2012, 04:21 PM
Ondrusek and Marshall are an interesting study in contrast and the importance of recognizing the "trick" of small sample sizes.



IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP xFIP
Ondrusek 13.1 7.4 3.8 0.0 .176 100.0 0.00 2.43 3.76
Marshall 10.1 12.2 2.6 0.9 .385 71.4 4.35 2.38 1.65

One guy has a sterling ERA driven almost entirely by an unsustainable, uncharacteristic lack of homers and low BABIP. The other has a poor ERA, but has stellar peripherals and an unsustainable, uncharacteristic high BABIP and bad timing.

Setting aside for a minute any assertions about "closer mentality", I can from the results in the last month why somebody might prefer Ondrusek as closer. But if they continue to perform how they're performing in the areas within their control, I have very little doubt Marshall is going to be the more effective pitcher moving forward.

The argument for Ondrusek has to be some combination of "he really can prevent homers" or "he really can sustain a crazy low BABIP" -- be that due to having a certain mentality or some otherwise unrecognized skill. And opposite argument has to be made about Marshall -- that something about the closer role makes him give up harder contact and fall apart at times. I have a hard time believing either.

Actually, the best argument for Ondrusek as closer is that it would free up Marshall to be used more often in real high leverage situations instead of protecting multi-run leads. Right now, Ondrusek has the highest leverage index of Reds relievers by far.

757690
05-08-2012, 04:27 PM
Ondrusek might not be as good as Marshall, but he is throwing harder and better than he did last season. A real nice surprise. :)

Rojo
05-08-2012, 04:28 PM
Ondrusek does have the GB/FB working for him so far. And that might be a sustainable development. But, yeah, we'd hardly notice the 13 innings if they came in August.

Sea Ray
05-08-2012, 04:34 PM
Ondrusek and Marshall are an interesting study in contrast and the importance of recognizing the "trick" of small sample sizes.


Actually, the best argument for Ondrusek as closer is that it would free up Marshall to be used more often in real high leverage situations instead of protecting multi-run leads. Right now, Ondrusek has the highest leverage index of Reds relievers by far.

I'm looking more at their stuff. Ondrusek has closer stuff as in overpowering FB/split finger. I don't know how well Marshall's curveballs play as a closer in the long run. I agree that Marshall has a much longer track record and it remains to be seen if Ondrusek can continue to look like this

Tom Servo
05-08-2012, 04:36 PM
I too will eat some crow in regards to Simon. He's a decent arm to have around.

PuffyPig
05-08-2012, 04:54 PM
I'm thinking Ondrusek looks more like a closer than Marshall. I agree we ought not change anything right now but I think we might want to consider working him in as closer at some point

Ondrusek is a good reliever who will eventually see his ERA rise into the 3's. His current success cannot be sustained to any kind of elite level.

fearofpopvol1
05-08-2012, 05:48 PM
Saw this on twitter earlier today from the Reds...

Bullpen hasn't allowed a run in 8g. According to Elias Sports Bureau, team record for consecutive scoreless bullpen apps is 9g ('71, '87).

Reds could tie history tonight and make history tomorrow.

DGullett35
05-08-2012, 06:25 PM
I mentioned in my first post that the Rangers had pitched 73.2 innings out of the pen as of Sunday and only had 7BB. That is crazy good. They rank higher stat wise from the pen than the Reds also. I just couldn't believe that stat.

Back to the Reds..I too will eat some crow as I also put the Simon signing down. Hes been a pleasant surprise. When hes throwing strikes he can be really good. He could possibly start for this team as he did with Baltimore. Im guessing that control was his problem as a starter too. Having a healthy Masset and Bray for the second half will be good in that it will be 2 fresh arms coming up with the big club. I hope Masset can come back strong, but with Bray I just dont see it this year with him. He doesn't look good at all from what we've seen so far. I understand he didn't have much of a spring but the guy has no movement or velocity on his pitches whatsoever.

Sea Ray
05-09-2012, 05:06 PM
Ondrusek and Marshall are an interesting study in contrast and the importance of recognizing the "trick" of small sample sizes.



IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP xFIP
Ondrusek 13.1 7.4 3.8 0.0 .176 100.0 0.00 2.43 3.76
Marshall 10.1 12.2 2.6 0.9 .385 71.4 4.35 2.38 1.65

One guy has a sterling ERA driven almost entirely by an unsustainable, uncharacteristic lack of homers and low BABIP. The other has a poor ERA, but has stellar peripherals and an unsustainable, uncharacteristic high BABIP and bad timing.

Setting aside for a minute any assertions about "closer mentality", I can from the results in the last month why somebody might prefer Ondrusek as closer. But if they continue to perform how they're performing in the areas within their control, I have very little doubt Marshall is going to be the more effective pitcher moving forward.

The argument for Ondrusek has to be some combination of "he really can prevent homers" or "he really can sustain a crazy low BABIP" -- be that due to having a certain mentality or some otherwise unrecognized skill. And opposite argument has to be made about Marshall -- that something about the closer role makes him give up harder contact and fall apart at times. I have a hard time believing either.

Actually, the best argument for Ondrusek as closer is that it would free up Marshall to be used more often in real high leverage situations instead of protecting multi-run leads. Right now, Ondrusek has the highest leverage index of Reds relievers by far.

Numbers aside, my eyes tell me Marshall's not a closer. Case in point today's game. His game is to throw curveball after curveball, one slower than the previous one. Major league hitters eventually time those things and whack it. That's what Braun did

fearofpopvol1
05-09-2012, 05:08 PM
Chapman looked incredible. Marshall didn't have his best outing, but Ondrusek saved the day. This outing was a little nerve wracking by the pen, but they pulled it out. They are awfully fun to watch.

Edit: Ondrusek was actually trending worldwide for a minute there on twitter!

_Sir_Charles_
05-09-2012, 05:12 PM
Numbers aside, my eyes tell me Marshall's not a closer. Case in point today's game. His game is to throw curveball after curveball, one slower than the previous one. Major league hitters eventually time those things and whack it. That's what Braun did

Braun's a bit of an anomaly though. He's a breaking ball hitter. He's got such a long swing, I don't know why most pitchers don't just go after him with a majority of fastballs. I've seen this for a couple of years now and Brantley's been harping on it the past couple of days too. Chapman should make minced meat out of Braun.

As for Marshall, the breaking ball is his game. As successful as he's been, I certainly don't want him going away from what works. But I agree he's not a traditional closer.

RedsManRick
05-09-2012, 05:13 PM
Numbers aside, my eyes tell me Marshall's not a closer. Case in point today's game. His game is to throw curveball after curveball, one slower than the previous one. Major league hitters eventually time those things and whack it. That's what Braun did

My brain tells me that watching a handful of games gives us a very biased view of a players ability.

Why would pitching in the 9th inning instead of the 8th suddenly make Marshall's curveball less effective?

That one of the five best hitters in baseball hit a homer off the guy does very little to affect my view of him.

Brutus
05-09-2012, 05:16 PM
My brain tells me that watching a handful of games gives us a very biased view of a players ability.

Why would pitching in the 9th inning instead of the 8th suddenly make Marshall's curveball less effective?

That one of the five best hitters in baseball hit a homer off the guy does very little to affect my view of him.

Marshall's swinging strike percentage thus far this year is 15%. He may not pass the 'eye test' as a closer, but that's closer stuff.

_Sir_Charles_
05-09-2012, 05:17 PM
I don't know where to get them, but I'd bet Braun's numbers would show he's a much better breaking ball hitter than fastball.

Kc61
05-09-2012, 05:20 PM
My brain tells me that watching a handful of games gives us a very biased view of a players ability.

Why would pitching in the 9th inning instead of the 8th suddenly make Marshall's curveball less effective?

That one of the five best hitters in baseball hit a homer off the guy does very little to affect my view of him.

I will say this. When a guy closes every time, there is no option. If lefties are coming up, he closes. If righties are coming up, he closes. His role is the ninth inning, regardless of matchups.

A pitcher like Marshall, in a set up role, could be used more against lefty parts of the opposing lineup. Somebody else, like Arredondo, could pitch when righties are mostly up.

It's only one game, I wouldn't make any immediate change. It's worth it for the Reds to consider how best to configure these late innings. They have a wealth of good relievers, the only question is when exactly to use them.

Sea Ray
05-09-2012, 05:22 PM
My brain tells me that watching a handful of games gives us a very biased view of a players ability.

Why would pitching in the 9th inning instead of the 8th suddenly make Marshall's curveball less effective?

That one of the five best hitters in baseball hit a homer off the guy does very little to affect my view of him.

He didn't handle the entire inning very well. I didn't like what I saw when he got into trouble. Slow curve after slow curve. Visions of Charlie Liebrandt and Chris Hammond are dancing through my head :shocked:

Brutus
05-09-2012, 05:35 PM
I will say this. When a guy closes every time, there is no option. If lefties are coming up, he closes. If righties are coming up, he closes. His role is the ninth inning, regardless of matchups.

A pitcher like Marshall, in a set up role, could be used more against lefty parts of the opposing lineup. Somebody else, like Arredondo, could pitch when righties are mostly up.

It's only one game, I wouldn't make any immediate change. It's worth it for the Reds to consider how best to configure these late innings. They have a wealth of good relievers, the only question is when exactly to use them.

His career xFIP against RH is 3.98. Ryan Madson's career xFIP against LH is 4.17. I'm sure no one would suggest Madson shouldn't face a predominately left-handed lineup as a closer, yet Marshall actually does better against RH in his career than Madson does against LH.

As an aside, Ondrusek's career xFIP against RH: 4.79.

RedsManRick
05-09-2012, 05:37 PM
He didn't handle the entire inning very well. I didn't like what I saw when he got into trouble. Slow curve after slow curve. Visions of Charlie Liebrandt and Chris Hammond are dancing through my head :shocked:

What would you have had him do? Do you think the way he reacted is different than how he reacts in other innings?

RedsManRick
05-09-2012, 05:40 PM
I will say this. When a guy closes every time, there is no option. If lefties are coming up, he closes. If righties are coming up, he closes. His role is the ninth inning, regardless of matchups.

A pitcher like Marshall, in a set up role, could be used more against lefty parts of the opposing lineup. Somebody else, like Arredondo, could pitch when righties are mostly up.

It's only one game, I wouldn't make any immediate change. It's worth it for the Reds to consider how best to configure these late innings. They have a wealth of good relievers, the only question is when exactly to use them.

I'm all for closer by committee. Though Marshall has historically still been pretty solid against righties. Of course, Ryan Braun is pretty much the perfect foil for him. In this circumstance, Arredondo may have been the better choice.

Sea Ray
05-09-2012, 05:43 PM
What would you have had him do? Do you think the way he reacted is different than how he reacts in other innings?

He started nibbling. I would have liked to have seen him challenge Braun with a FB

wolfboy
05-09-2012, 05:48 PM
He started nibbling. I would have liked to have seen him challenge Braun with a FB

This isn't directed at you, but this post made me think of the Homer Bailey thread. Bailey gets criticized for throwing fastballs when he's ahead in the count versus throwing some breaking stuff. Marshall gets criticized for throwing curveballs and not challenging guys with a fastball. :confused:

RedsManRick
05-09-2012, 05:51 PM
He started nibbling. I would have liked to have seen him challenge Braun with a FB

Ok -- but is that different from what he normally does? I ask because his typical approach seems to have been pretty darn effective over the last few years.

As for this specific time, I've heard analysts laud the soft-softer-softest approach against power numerous times. If he throws a fastball and gets beat, the critique is that he should have stuck with his best pitch.

Sea Ray
05-09-2012, 08:33 PM
Ok -- but is that different from what he normally does? I ask because his typical approach seems to have been pretty darn effective over the last few years.

As for this specific time, I've heard analysts laud the soft-softer-softest approach against power numerous times. If he throws a fastball and gets beat, the critique is that he should have stuck with his best pitch.

It depends on what your best pitch is. 99% of the time, a pitcher needs to mix it up to a certain extent. If your best pitch is a 105 MPH FB, then maybe that doesn't hold. Against a RH hitter, Marshall has no business throwing 90% CBs.

DGullett35
05-16-2012, 08:08 PM
Right now Reds pen ranked best in all of baseball stat wise. Hope this can continue, just hope they don't get burnt out.