PDA

View Full Version : Reds vs. Brewers Wednesday 5/9



Pages : 1 [2]

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:26 PM
I'd leave Chapman in

closers close dude..

/sarcasm

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:27 PM
Good pitching will keep you in every single game.

The DARK
05-09-2012, 04:27 PM
Stubbs gets to that. ;)

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:27 PM
BP plates the insurance run.

I leave Chapman in but with Marshall ready to come in if ANYTHING happens.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:27 PM
I would let Chapman hit.

40YrRedsFan
05-09-2012, 04:27 PM
Well, Braun can't tie the game by himself now

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:28 PM
Chapman up in the order, so he's bein taken out

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:28 PM
Cairo on deck so it's going to be Marshall

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:28 PM
Dusty has alwasy been a stat counter. Chapman with the W, Marshall with the SV.

R_Webb18
05-09-2012, 04:28 PM
there was no way chapman was pitching 9th(with lead) even tho it would be nice

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:28 PM
I would let Chapman hit.

Has he ever hit?

Josh
05-09-2012, 04:29 PM
they are going to force our hand for Chapman dont think that we would have left him in anyways.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:29 PM
Has he ever hit?

He can just stand there. :)

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:29 PM
Has he ever hit?

He did in an ST game I went to. He looked good actually.

40YrRedsFan
05-09-2012, 04:29 PM
He can just stand there. :)

agreed

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:29 PM
I remember last year I think it was when Cordero had to take an At Bat, that was ugly

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:30 PM
Remember Arredondo's single in extras last year lol

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:30 PM
Has he ever hit?


He did in an ST game I went to. He looked good actually.

Just checked baseball reference and he's never had a PA in the majors.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:30 PM
Marshall better not blow this save. I can see the Sundeck now if he does.

The DARK
05-09-2012, 04:30 PM
Ouch!

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:31 PM
Just checked baseball reference and he's never had a PA in the majors.

Not in any ST games either? I thought I remember him taking some swings. I guess I could be wrong.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:32 PM
Just checked baseball reference and he's never had a PA in the majors.


Not in any ST games either? I thought I remember him taking some swings. I guess I could be wrong.

I don't think baseball-reference includes spring training stats, so you might be right.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:33 PM
I don't mind taking Chapman out..had a chance to get more runs, albeit a small one, but a better than just letting Chapman take 3 pitches

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:33 PM
Nail biting time - three tough outs coming up for Marshall.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:33 PM
In 2012 Chapman was 1 for 4 in ST. A double.
In 2011 Chapman was 1 for 1 in ST. A single.
In 2010 Chapman was 0 for 1 in ST.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:36 PM
:laugh: Thom must be reading these boards

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:38 PM
In 2012 Chapman was 1 for 4 in ST. A double.
In 2011 Chapman was 1 for 1 in ST. A single.
In 2010 Chapman was 0 for 1 in ST.

I thought I remembered that. Glad I am not going crazy.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
2-1.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
ugh

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
Coco Marshall. LOL.

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
Oh Dusty.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
Wow, Marshall getting it done again.

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
2nd run was huge

Spider Tre
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
aaand Braun roids one out to left. 2-1

Josh
05-09-2012, 04:39 PM
wow

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:40 PM
Braun almost went deep in the 7th.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:40 PM
Just a solo shot.

40YrRedsFan
05-09-2012, 04:40 PM
I would have stayed with Chapman

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:40 PM
Shocking. I thought Marshall had closer stuff. Of course Chapman only throws 100, so I can see why you wouldn't want him in there finishing the game.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 04:40 PM
Coco Marshall. LOL.
I was hoping that nickname wouldn't stick, but he's earning it so far! :thumbdown:

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:41 PM
Just a solo shot.

For sure. That Phillips single is now huge.

Maker_84
05-09-2012, 04:41 PM
Marshall so far has been a disappointment. Even bigger than Latos

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:41 PM
Ondrusek up.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:41 PM
Marshall so far has been a disappointment. Even bigger than Latos

lolwut? He currently has 1 blown save

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:41 PM
K. Yay.

TheBigLebowski
05-09-2012, 04:41 PM
Marshall is a crappy closer.

Josh
05-09-2012, 04:42 PM
Lets hope that the old addage of of lead off home run is a rally killer 1 down 2 to go.

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:42 PM
Braun is gonna hit a lot of pitchers. Get the other guys and win.

Maker_84
05-09-2012, 04:42 PM
lolwut? He currently has 1 blown save

He hasn't looked as dominant as everyone made him out to be

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:42 PM
Nothing against Marshall, but why substitute for any already used Chapman who is having an "on" day.

It8ifyifitsgrif
05-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Guy gives up a HR to the "MVP" and now he is terrible. Marshall had been fine in this role. Him at closer also allows Reds to use Chapman multiple innings.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 04:43 PM
lolwut? He currently has 1 blown save
In only five opportunities. With a sky high ERA. There's definitely cause for concern.

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Chapman could have been used multiple innings today and finished the game.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:43 PM
Nothing against Marshall, but why substitute for any already used Chapman who is having an "on" day.

Trying for more runs given how the heart of the Brewers order was up - I'd want some more insurance as well.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
Oh my!

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
wow

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
Jesus H Christ.

Ohayou
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
Lawd have mercy!

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
now THAT was Coco-esque

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
WHEW!

Gonna need a drink after this game!

Cherokee
05-09-2012, 04:44 PM
dayum

R_Webb18
05-09-2012, 04:45 PM
scary

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:45 PM
Reminds me of the 7th when Braun and Ramirez nearly went deep to right.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:45 PM
C'mon Sean - get this guy so I can open up the wetbar!

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:46 PM
Dear God.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:46 PM
Is he pitching around Lucroy to get to Green?

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:46 PM
come on, 1 more strike

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:47 PM
Is he pitching around Lucroy to get to Green?

That would be incredibly dumb. I mean it's Jonathan Lucroy.

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:47 PM
Trying for more runs given how the heart of the Brewers order was up - I'd want some more insurance as well.

In my brain the difference between Cairo and Chapman at the plate is not worth taking him out. Just one man's opinion.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:48 PM
Is he pitching around Lucroy to get to Green?


That would be incredibly dumb. I mean it's Jonathan Lucroy.

Lucroy hitting .313, Green hitting .222

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:48 PM
I hate foul balls

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:48 PM
Lucroy hitting .313, Green hitting .222

So? Lucroy isn't a big enough power threat to risk putting him on base intentionally. If he gets a single, he gets a single. He's still getting out 70% of the time.

dubc47834
05-09-2012, 04:49 PM
I hate foul balls

Thats what she said!!!

The DARK
05-09-2012, 04:49 PM
Lucroy battling. Need the knockout blow...

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:49 PM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RYwm_v8FnrI/S9EN46NVr2I/AAAAAAAABDA/xGw8os7vCt4/s1600/xanax_3.jpg

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:50 PM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_RYwm_v8FnrI/S9EN46NVr2I/AAAAAAAABDA/xGw8os7vCt4/s1600/xanax_3.jpg

Yes, please.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:50 PM
Winning run to the plate.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:50 PM
single, winning run at the plate

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:51 PM
Pinch runner. Norichika Aoki pinch hitting.

Cherokee
05-09-2012, 04:51 PM
helluva at bat....

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:51 PM
Marshall at 29 pitches. Not good.

40YrRedsFan
05-09-2012, 04:51 PM
Nothing comes easy for the Reds

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:51 PM
What a game.

Anyone who thinks baseball is boring should be watching this!

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
What a game.

Anyone who thinks baseball is boring should be watching this!

these are the times I wish it was more boring

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
helluva at bat....

He fouled off a bunch of 'em, didn't he?

jpurdy974
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
Shades of Coco!!!

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
How bad does Taylor Green feel. Lifted for Norichika Aoki.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
3-0

brm7675
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
Shocking. I thought Marshall had closer stuff. Of course Chapman only throws 100, so I can see why you wouldn't want him in there finishing the game.

Exactly what does speed of pitchs have to do with ability to close?

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:52 PM
Forget the stats Dusty- win the game.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
3-0

That was a strike

brm7675
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
Marshall so far has been a disappointment. Even bigger than Latos


Really? Please explain how he has been a disappointment?

The DARK
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
Heck of a time to get squeezed.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
down to 1 strike again

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
Gameday has Axford on deck AND in the hole.

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
Exactly what does speed of pitchs have to do with ability to close?

Overpowering stuff helps. Chapman running it up there at 99 with a 91 slider doesn't let Jonathan Lucroy foul off 10 straight pitches. When you throw a 77 mph slurve, guys can hang in there a little better. Speed matters.

brm7675
05-09-2012, 04:53 PM
Marshall is a crappy closer.

And he is a crappy closer why?

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:54 PM
Base hit.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:54 PM
ffuuu

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:54 PM
You gotta be kidding me.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 04:54 PM
Really? Please explain how he has been a disappointment?
When your closer has an ERA over 5.00, he's a disappointment.

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:54 PM
Ondrusek coming on.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:54 PM
Dusty makin the right decision

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
If Chapman was left in they would halfway to the airport by now.

Cherokee
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
My heart can't take this.

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
I think one of these days Ondrusek is gonna be a good closer.

The DARK
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
CocoCoaster all over again.

It8ifyifitsgrif
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
That time to pull Marshall makes zero sense unless Marshall told him he just didnt have it today. Turning around Izturis is very odd choice.

brm7675
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
When your closer has an ERA over 5.00, he's a disappointment.

ERA for a pitcher who has thrown how many innings isn't a fair way to judge a pitcher...

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:55 PM
I think one of these days Ondrusek is gonna be a good closer.

I pray today is that day.

Who Dey Time
05-09-2012, 04:56 PM
I think one of these days Ondrusek is gonna be a good closer.

Hopefully today is one of those days.

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:56 PM
35 pitches. I'd guess that would make him unavailable tomrrow.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:56 PM
It seems like this 9th inning has taken as long as the first 8 combined.

CaliBuck
05-09-2012, 04:56 PM
Marshall needs to move back into his more traditional role. He's not a closer.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:57 PM
first pitch pop up would be nice

Red Raindog
05-09-2012, 04:57 PM
35 pitches. I'd guess that would make him unavailable tomrrow.

day off -- isn't it?

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:57 PM
Dusty is an enigma. If you're going to have that kind of a hook for your closer, why not just let Chapman stay in, considering he has the best stuff on the whole staff? Baffling.

Krawhitham
05-09-2012, 04:57 PM
When your closer has an ERA over 5.00, he's a disappointment.

This is the 3rd time in a save situation he has given up at least a run

He has a Save, a Blown save/lost, and now this

TheBigLebowski
05-09-2012, 04:57 PM
And he is a crappy closer why?

Not doing it with you. Had I said he was an excellent closer, you'd reply with "And he is an excellent closer why? Can you not see this?" You're in love with the sound of your own keyboard and your desire to be the town contrarian gets tiresome.

40YrRedsFan
05-09-2012, 04:57 PM
I think Chapman is going to be the closer soon by default. No one else seems to have the shut down stuff needed

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
2-0. Trouble.

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
Buckner now squeezing a bit.

The DARK
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
Dusty is an enigma. If you're going to have that kind of a hook for your closer, why not just let Chapman stay in, considering he has the best stuff on the whole staff? Baffling.

You give a hook for any reliever once he gets 35 pitches in an inning.

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
Been a strike all day

brm7675
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
35 pitches. I'd guess that would make him unavailable tomrrow.


Reds don't play tomorrow..

Krawhitham
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
3-0

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
day off -- isn't it?

Is it? I hate no Reds game days.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
this game is over

Red Raindog
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
throw heat -- jeeesh

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:58 PM
You give a hook for any reliever once he gets 35 pitches in an inning.

Is that what the book says? If so, that makes sense. Dusty is a by the book guy.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
bases loaded, awesome

read favorite
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
they treat chapman like a china doll

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
Bases juiced.

Krawhitham
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
Buckner now squeezing a bit.

this

Stray
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
Unreal

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
Argh!

Red Raindog
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
where did the strike zone go?

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
We're toast.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 04:59 PM
ATOBTTR

Spider Tre
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
WOW hahahaha

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
Hats off Ondrusek.

Krawhitham
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
2 of the balls were strikes in the 7th inning

texasdave
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
Never a doubt.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
hey, I got the first pitch strike out, just a batter later :laugh:

Red Raindog
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
I think I heard Logan exhale!

Stray
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
Never a doubt.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
Got it!

Wow

TheBigLebowski
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
phew

Maker_84
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
What happened?

texasdave
05-09-2012, 05:00 PM
Did Ishikawa come up in the Reds' organization. Just walked a guy and he swings at the first pitch.

The DARK
05-09-2012, 05:01 PM
What a heart attack of a game. Kudos to Logan.

Stray
05-09-2012, 05:01 PM
Nice achievement for Dusty to get 1500 wins.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 05:01 PM
The Getaway Gang strikes again.

Cherokee
05-09-2012, 05:01 PM
holy crap! I can breathe now.

jpurdy974
05-09-2012, 05:01 PM
Time to see if Logan might be able to close?

Who Dey Time
05-09-2012, 05:02 PM
Bases loaded, 2-out, guy in front of you walks and he swings at the first pitch? What a dick.

Cherokee
05-09-2012, 05:02 PM
Chapman with 3 wins...probably most on the team or at least tied?

Who Dey Time
05-09-2012, 05:03 PM
Chapman with 3 wins...probably most on the team or at least tied?

Cueto has 4 I believe even with today's ND.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 05:03 PM
The Reds with the best record in the NL since April 19.

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 05:03 PM
Chapman with 3 wins...probably most on the team or at least tied?

Doesn't Cueto have 4?

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 05:03 PM
Time to see if Logan might be able to close?

It will never happen that quickly.

Cherokee
05-09-2012, 05:04 PM
Cueto has 4 I believe even with today's ND.

:thumbup:

40YrRedsFan
05-09-2012, 05:04 PM
I love the stats...they give Marshall a "hold" for this one.

Stray
05-09-2012, 05:04 PM
It's really unlike Dusty to pull a closer before the blown save even though I'm glad he did. Could mean that maybe he doesn't have that much confidence in him to begin with.

Josh
05-09-2012, 05:05 PM
Lol Jeff looks like a kid next to Logan

brm7675
05-09-2012, 05:06 PM
I am shocked..did someone replace the old Dusty with a new one? He starts Fraizer in LF, uses Chapman like he should and then pulls the closer? When was the last time with the game still in doubt has Dusty EVER pulled the closer?

Tadasimha
05-09-2012, 05:07 PM
The Reds with the best record in the NL since April 19.

:thumbup::beerme::thumbup:

Didn't know that - good to hear!

TheBigLebowski
05-09-2012, 05:07 PM
Bases loaded, 2-out, guy in front of you walks and he swings at the first pitch? What a dick.

I LOL'd

LeDoux
05-09-2012, 05:09 PM
It's really unlike Dusty to pull a closer before the blown save even though I'm glad he did. Could mean that maybe he doesn't have that much confidence in him to begin with.

I agree. It is unlike Dusty- but maybe Dusty is changing his mindset?
:beerme:

Mutaman
05-09-2012, 05:11 PM
Star of the game:

3. Votto

2. Stubbs

And the # 1 star is

Johnny Cueto.

JohnCocktoasten
05-09-2012, 05:12 PM
Had 'em all the way!

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 05:15 PM
I am shocked..did someone replace the old Dusty with a new one? He starts Fraizer in LF, uses Chapman like he should and then pulls the closer? When was the last time with the game still in doubt has Dusty EVER pulled the closer?

I remember a game last year in Chicago where Dusty pulled Coco and Masset came in and got a big strikeout to end it.

Red Raindog
05-09-2012, 05:35 PM
Chapman with 3 wins...probably most on the team or at least tied?

JC has 4 I believe

PumpFak3First
05-09-2012, 05:54 PM
Can a reliever win a CY Young? Seriously Chapman has been that good this year, but damn so has Cueto. He reminds me a lot of Maddux. On some days he won't blow you away but his stuff moves, and he places it well. He's turned into an actual pitcher.

LexRedsFan
05-09-2012, 05:59 PM
Dusty is an enigma. If you're going to have that kind of a hook for your closer, why not just let Chapman stay in, considering he has the best stuff on the whole staff? Baffling.

Actually don't have a problem with Chapman coming out. If Cairo gets a hit, it's 3-0 or if he jacks one it's 4-0.

osuredleg24
05-09-2012, 06:05 PM
Actually don't have a problem with Chapman coming out. If Cairo gets a hit, it's 3-0 or if he jacks one it's 4-0.

this.

RedsFanInBama
05-09-2012, 06:32 PM
Actually don't have a problem with Chapman coming out. If Cairo gets a hit, it's 3-0 or if he jacks one it's 4-0.

Gotta be honest. I'd rather have Chapman out there with a 2-0 lead than Marshall with a 3-0 lead.

texasdave
05-09-2012, 06:48 PM
I would have left Chapman in. But it worked out. So it is all good.

New York Red
05-09-2012, 07:28 PM
Can a reliever win a CY Young? Seriously Chapman has been that good this year, but damn so has Cueto. He reminds me a lot of Maddux. On some days he won't blow you away but his stuff moves, and he places it well. He's turned into an actual pitcher.
Exactly. When Cueto was coming up through the minors, even when he made his major league debut, he was a thrower. Now he's a pitcher. I think I heard on the post-game show today that Cueto has a 2.00 ERA since the start of the 2011 season. That's bigtime, and of course right now he has an ERA of 1.10 for the 2012 season. He's a horse too. With some starters, you're thinking about pitch count from the first inning on. With Cueto, it's an afterthought. When he gets in the 85-95 range, he's just getting in rhythm.

Mutaman
05-09-2012, 08:39 PM
Can a reliever win a CY Young?

Sparky Lyle won a cy young. Then the next year the Yankees picked up Goose and Sparky was traded. Nettles said: "From Cy Young to sayonara".

texasdave
05-10-2012, 10:04 AM
If the season ended today the Reds would be on the outside looking in.

The Cardinals are a ridiculous +75 runs scored already. They are 2.4 runs per game better than their opponents. The second best team, Atlanta, is 0.8 runs per game better than their opponents. St. Louis' record is 20-11. Pythag has them at 23-8.

The top five teams in strength of schedule are all from the NL Central division by virtue of having played the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are scoring 5.61 runs per game. At that pace they will score 908 runs. Second-place Atlanta is almost a half a run a game behind that pace.

The Cardinals are allowing just 3.19 runs per game. At that pace they will allow just 517 runs. Washington is even better at 3.03 runs per game allowed.

If they maintain their current pace they will score 391 more runs than they allow. Pythag would work that out to be 120 wins.

To put that 391 into perspective let's look at the Big Red Machine. In 1975 and 1976 the Reds were +254 and +224 respectively. Not even in the same ballpark as 391. The 1927 Yankees were +2.4, same as St. Louis. The 2000 Mariners were only +300.

St. Louis' start is ill.

LexRedsFan
05-10-2012, 11:15 AM
If the season ended today the Reds would be on the outside looking in.

The Cardinals are a ridiculous +75 runs scored already. They are 2.4 runs per game better than their opponents. The second best team, Atlanta, is 0.8 runs per game better than their opponents. St. Louis' record is 20-11. Pythag has them at 23-8.

The top five teams in strength of schedule are all from the NL Central division by virtue of having played the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are scoring 5.61 runs per game. At that pace they will score 908 runs. Second-place Atlanta is almost a half a run a game behind that pace.

The Cardinals are allowing just 3.19 runs per game. At that pace they will allow just 517 runs. Washington is even better at 3.03 runs per game allowed.

If they maintain their current pace they will score 391 more runs than they allow. Pythag would work that out to be 120 wins.

To put that 391 into perspective let's look at the Big Red Machine. In 1975 and 1976 the Reds were +254 and +224 respectively. Not even in the same ballpark as 391. The 1927 Yankees were +2.4, same as St. Louis. The 2000 Mariners were only +300.

St. Louis' start is ill.

All of that....and we're just 3.5 out.

dubc47834
05-10-2012, 01:16 PM
If the season ended today the Reds would be on the outside looking in.

The Cardinals are a ridiculous +75 runs scored already. They are 2.4 runs per game better than their opponents. The second best team, Atlanta, is 0.8 runs per game better than their opponents. St. Louis' record is 20-11. Pythag has them at 23-8.

The top five teams in strength of schedule are all from the NL Central division by virtue of having played the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are scoring 5.61 runs per game. At that pace they will score 908 runs. Second-place Atlanta is almost a half a run a game behind that pace.

The Cardinals are allowing just 3.19 runs per game. At that pace they will allow just 517 runs. Washington is even better at 3.03 runs per game allowed.

If they maintain their current pace they will score 391 more runs than they allow. Pythag would work that out to be 120 wins.

To put that 391 into perspective let's look at the Big Red Machine. In 1975 and 1976 the Reds were +254 and +224 respectively. Not even in the same ballpark as 391. The 1927 Yankees were +2.4, same as St. Louis. The 2000 Mariners were only +300.

St. Louis' start is ill.

All that being said, those teams you listed at the end are all time great teams. This years Cardinals most believe will not keep up this pace, and the Reds are still only 3.5 out. I would be willing to bet that the Cardinal don't break 100 wins, won't happen.

texasdave
05-10-2012, 01:29 PM
Just to be clear, I don't think the Cardinals can keep it up either. But, you have to admit, those numbers are pretty staggering at this point in the season. As to only being 3.5 games out? If both teams continue playing at their current pace you can figure the Reds will be eliminated right around Labor Day, maybe a little after.

My post was only to offer a little perspective.

NOTE: Houston has played 25 games against teams above .500 and only 6 games against teams below. Now that is a rough schedule.

LeDoux
05-10-2012, 06:18 PM
Just to be clear, I don't think the Cardinals can keep it up either. But, you have to admit, those numbers are pretty staggering at this point in the season. As to only being 3.5 games out? If both teams continue playing at their current pace you can figure the Reds will be eliminated right around Labor Day, maybe a little after.

My post was only to offer a little perspective.

NOTE: Houston has played 25 games against teams above .500 and only 6 games against teams below. Now that is a rough schedule.

They seem to be cooling off a tad already. It is their pitching that is the real shocker. Westbook, Lohse, and especially Lynn, are pitching over their heads.

Check out Lynn's "luck stats":

BABIP: .209 (avg .270-.290 is average)

LOB: 93.8 % (77% or so is average)

Lynn's numbers are not even remotely sustainable.

New York Red
05-10-2012, 08:23 PM
They seem to be cooling off a tad already. It is their pitching that is the real shocker. Westbook, Lohse, and especially Lynn, are pitching over their heads.

Check out Lynn's "luck stats":

BABIP: .209 (avg .270-.290 is average)

LOB: 93.8 % (77% or so is average)

Lynn's numbers are not even remotely sustainable.
That .209 BABIP is ridiculous! :laugh: