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View Full Version : Peavy anyone?



corkedbat
05-09-2012, 11:00 PM
Talk the ChiSox may put him on the block.

3-1 in 6 starts 45.1 IP 39 K 6 BB 2 HR with a 1.99 ERA 0.75 WHIP 5.6 K/9 1.2 BB/9 211 ERA+ Owed $17M this year with a $22M Option and a $4M buyout.

Would you want him? What kind of a package could the reds put together that might land him? How much would Chicago have to kick in?

kaldaniels
05-09-2012, 11:03 PM
Too risky for me unless he comes super cheap.

VottoFan54
05-09-2012, 11:11 PM
If it isn't broke, don't fix it. Our SP's are doing just fine and if one of them struggles we can try Chapman as a starter. There is no need for the Reds to look at Peavy with the size of his contract and the way our pitching is performing right now.

RedlegJake
05-10-2012, 12:40 AM
I'd trade one of Bailey or Leake for him plus a prospect if Chicago sent along $7 million and the buyout money to use either way the Reds want (buyout or defray next year's salary). I doubt the Chisox would do that. Then I'd put Chappy in the rotation. Cueto-Latos-Peavey-Arroyo-Chappy with Leake or Bailey in long relief and starting insurance. What a rotation that would be. Chappy could double up with the guy who stayed for his first few games ie Leake starts goes 4 then Chappy goes the rest of the way or at least through the 8th. Rinse and repeat. Then Chapman starts goes 5 and Leake finishes off. Rinse and repeat. Then let Chapman go as far as he can after that. You've eased him into the rotation. You've added Peavey and given the Reds a terrific deep 5 man rotation. You have Leake or Bailey for next year's 5th man if you let Peavey go and the year after you have Cingrani and Corcino close to ready to go. It works.

Tom Servo
05-10-2012, 12:42 AM
As good as he looks, that's just too much money.

corkedbat
05-10-2012, 12:54 AM
About what I expected and I agree. The only two moves I'd like to see would be another solid bat in LF (or even 3B) and another top bullpen arm that would make it easier to move Chapman to the rotation (and I'm not even sure the last one is necessary). I do want them to add another very solid bat though.

Vottomatic
05-10-2012, 08:20 AM
Peavy makes $17M this year with a $4M buyout for 2013.
Dunn is signed through 2014 - $14M/2012, $15M/2013, $15M/2014.

White Sox send $20M and trade Peavy and Dunn to the Reds for Heisey, their choice of Bailey or Leake, Soto, and Gregorius.

It will never happen though. Too much money that the Reds cannot afford to absorb.

But Dunn has hit 5 HR's in his last 10 games. His batting average this year is at .243, which is his career batting average. He's also walked 25 times. His OBP is at .384. If he batted cleanup, he'd more than likely be on base for Bruce and give some protection to Votto. You'd have 3 lefty bats in a row, but who cares.

Peavy's numbers look really impressive. Sub-2.00 e.r.a., 44 K's in 52 IP, and only 35 hits allowed. 0.80 WHIP which shows good command and very few walks (7 in 52 IP). Plus his strength is back because he's pitched 2 complete games in 7 starts. He's averaging 7.4 IP per start. Impressive.

I'd actually be interested in this trade if they could get creative on the $$$$. Reds would have to throw in some additional prospects to get the ChiSox to pony up more cash.

But again, it won't happen because of the amount of money and the length of Dunn's contract.

bellhead
05-10-2012, 09:05 AM
Peavy makes $17M this year with a $4M buyout for 2013.
Dunn is signed through 2014 - $14M/2012, $15M/2013, $15M/2014.

White Sox send $20M and trade Peavy and Dunn to the Reds for Heisey, their choice of Bailey or Leake, Soto, and Gregorius.

It will never happen though. Too much money that the Reds cannot afford to absorb.

But Dunn has hit 5 HR's in his last 10 games. His batting average this year is at .243, which is his career batting average. He's also walked 25 times. His OBP is at .384. If he batted cleanup, he'd more than likely be on base for Bruce and give some protection to Votto. You'd have 3 lefty bats in a row, but who cares.

Peavy's numbers look really impressive. Sub-2.00 e.r.a., 44 K's in 52 IP, and only 35 hits allowed. 0.80 WHIP which shows good command and very few walks (7 in 52 IP). Plus his strength is back because he's pitched 2 complete games in 7 starts. He's averaging 7.4 IP per start. Impressive.

I'd actually be interested in this trade if they could get creative on the $$$$. Reds would have to throw in some additional prospects to get the ChiSox to pony up more cash.

But again, it won't happen because of the amount of money and the length of Dunn's contract.

Peavy for Leake would lock up the central for the Reds. Imagine running Cueto, Peavy, and Latos, with Bronson on a bounce back year...:beerme:

REDREAD
05-10-2012, 10:33 AM
Peavy makes $17M this year with a $4M buyout for 2013.
Dunn is signed through 2014 - $14M/2012, $15M/2013, $15M/2014.

White Sox send $20M and trade Peavy and Dunn to the Reds for Heisey, their choice of Bailey or Leake, Soto, and Gregorius.


Interesting, but I don't want Dunn for the next three years at those prices.
I agree that he's bounced back, but last season he practically admited to "letting things slide". He'd probably be motivated by a trade back to Cincy, but what about the next 2 years? Would he get too comfortable again and become 2011 Dunn? What if the Reds got off to another slow start? It's a tough fit because the Reds can't put him at 1b too. (I'm not moving Votto to LF :laugh: )

I'm not even sure I would trade Homer or Leake (and prospects) for a one year rental of Peavy. It would hurt the team in 2013.

Vottomatic
05-10-2012, 11:08 AM
Interesting, but I don't want Dunn for the next three years at those prices.
I agree that he's bounced back, but last season he practically admited to "letting things slide". He'd probably be motivated by a trade back to Cincy, but what about the next 2 years? Would he get too comfortable again and become 2011 Dunn? What if the Reds got off to another slow start? It's a tough fit because the Reds can't put him at 1b too. (I'm not moving Votto to LF :laugh: )

I'm not even sure I would trade Homer or Leake (and prospects) for a one year rental of Peavy. It would hurt the team in 2013.

I dunno.

Chapman could always start. Hoover spent most of the time in the minors starting with an e.r.a. hovering a little over 3.00. Francis is still in triple AAA. We have Bronson another year (2013). Corcino and Cingrani will probably be in double AA some time this year and continue moving up, hopefully.

I never thought I'd say this, but the Reds have a logjam of pitching with different ways they could go. If you obtained Peavy for either Bailey or Leake (and some prospects), the rotation is very strong this year. If and when Masset and Bray return to the bullpen, who goes? Talk about depth.

If you obtained Dunn, you finally have that legit cleanup hitter the Reds have been lacking since Dunn left. And GABP is suited for Dunn. 2 more years of his contract is the big problem.

Then you trade for Youkilis to play 3B..............just kidding.

Too much money, but it's very intriguing. Peavy would make the rotation one of the strongest in baseball. Dunn at cleanup would solve even more problems.

Slyder
05-10-2012, 11:17 AM
Too much money, but it's very intriguing. Peavy would make the rotation one of the strongest in baseball. Dunn at cleanup would solve even more problems.

But you know Dusty likes to break up the lefties! The world's going to end if Dunn were brought back as Dusty may try and find any reason to not bat two lefties back to back.

I like the idea it's a creative idea but like others have said way too much money would have to come back to offset the books. Unless you think Rolen's willing to go to AL where he could DH more and be healthier and you think Frazier is worth an everyday look at 3b?

Lineup:
Phillips 2b
Cozart ss
Votto 1b
Dunn LF
Mesoraco CA
Bruce RF
Frazier 3b
Stubbs CF
Pitcher?

Maybe?

bellhead
05-10-2012, 11:40 AM
If you obtained Dunn, you finally have that legit cleanup hitter the Reds have been lacking since Dunn left. And GABP is suited for Dunn. 2 more years of his contract is the big problem.

Then you trade for Youkilis to play 3B..............just kidding.



Cozart
Philiphs
Votto
Dunn
Bruce
Youkilis
Stubbs
Mes or Hanigan..

:beerme:

That lineup scores a lot of runs over the next few years...They would send 80% of NL starters packing after 5 because of pitch counts.

Also remember Mes projects in two to three years as a #4 hitter.

corkedbat
05-10-2012, 12:22 PM
Haven't really kept up with Dunn much. Is he even capable of playing the OF anymore?

*BaseClogger*
05-10-2012, 06:24 PM
We needs Runs Scored, not Runs Prevented...

The Operator
05-10-2012, 06:26 PM
We needs Runs Scored, not Runs Prevented...They both have a positive effect on run differential, I don't see a difference.

*BaseClogger*
05-10-2012, 06:28 PM
They both have a positive effect on run differential, I don't see a difference.

I generally agree. My thinking can be better expressed.

The net gain from Peavy over Leake/Bailey for that kind of money is less likely to be as significant as an upgrade to somewhere on the offensive side of the ball...

The Operator
05-10-2012, 06:31 PM
I generally agree. My thinking can be better expressed.

The net gain from Peavy over Leake/Bailey for that kind of money is less likely to be as significant as an upgrade to somewhere on the offensive side of the ball...I agree with you there, I wouldn't make that trade mainly because Peavy is overpaid and his arm is held on with duct tape.

And I would prefer the Reds use available funds to upgrade LF, but I also wouldn't oppose an upgrade to the staff. Not this trade, though.

AtomicDumpling
05-10-2012, 06:43 PM
When healthy Jake Peavy is a Cy Young caliber pitcher. He won the Cy Young Award in 2007 while winning the pitching triple crown. He has lead the league in ERA twice and in strikeouts twice.

Even while he was pitching with injuries the last three years his peripherals have been excellent. His SIERA for 2009-11 was 19th out of 167 starting pitchers.

Now that he seems to be back to full health (who knows how long that will last) he is back to being one of the elite pitchers in the league.

Maybe the White Sox would consider a Peavy for Arroyo swap? Both pitchers make a lot of money. But the Sox may prefer Arroyo's durability, even though Arroyo's SIERA was 135th in the league during the same period that Peavy's was 19th.

If there is ever going to be a time when the Reds might actually have a chance to trade Arroyo this is it. His contract is an albatross and his horrific 2011 and awful peripherals over the last few years may be overlooked by some teams due to his unsustainably low ERA for the first month of 2012. I doubt the Sox would trade Peavy for Arroyo but it can't hurt to ask.

I would rather have an injury-prone ace than a durable gopherball specialist. Move him now before the weather heats up and the balls start flying out of Great American Ball Park.

AtomicDumpling
05-10-2012, 06:43 PM
Maybe this will be the year when the automatic response to every trade idea stopped being "The Reds can't afford it". The Reds are a hugely profitable team and they have finally started to spend some money now that they sense a real chance to compete. Let's not be so quick to dismiss every scenario as being too expensive. Those days are hopefully over.

The Operator
05-10-2012, 06:52 PM
Maybe this will be the year when the automatic response to every trade idea stopped being "The Reds can't afford it". The Reds are a hugely profitable team and they have finally started to spend some money now that they sense a real chance to compete. Let's not be so quick to dismiss every scenario as being too expensive. Those days are hopefully over.Oh I don't think he's too expensive salary-wise, but I do think he's overpaid and I'd rather the Reds not be on the hook for that much money if he winds up on the shelf again. They're already paying a pitcher good money who may not ever throw a single pitch in a Reds uniform.

AtomicDumpling
05-10-2012, 07:13 PM
Oh I don't think he's too expensive salary-wise, but I do think he's overpaid and I'd rather the Reds not be on the hook for that much money if he winds up on the shelf again. They're already paying a pitcher good money who may not ever throw a single pitch in a Reds uniform.

I respect that opinion. I was not referring to you in particular in my post. I just find it frustrating that every time someone suggests a trade or player acquisition there are always a bunch of people that want to shoot it down with the easy knee-jerk "Reds can't afford it" response. Maybe they can, maybe they can't. It turns out the Reds have been able to afford a lot of things that people said they couldn't afford. So let's not dismiss things out of hand. Let's discuss each trade idea on its merits instead of using the small market mentality to shunt the issue aside.

It is fine to say "I don't think Player X is good enough to earn his salary." It is not so fine to say "The Reds can't afford to pay him his salary."

The Operator
05-10-2012, 08:38 PM
It is fine to say "I don't think Player X is good enough to earn his salary." It is not so fine to say "The Reds can't afford to pay him his salary."Agreed.

Vottomatic
05-11-2012, 09:32 AM
Peavy is a rental. He has a $4M buyout next year or you pay him $17M. He will be a hot commodity at the trading deadline for some contender. Believe it.

bucksfan2
05-11-2012, 10:28 AM
When healthy Jake Peavy is a Cy Young caliber pitcher. He won the Cy Young Award in 2007 while winning the pitching triple crown. He has lead the league in ERA twice and in strikeouts twice.

Even while he was pitching with injuries the last three years his peripherals have been excellent. His SIERA for 2009-11 was 19th out of 167 starting pitchers.

Now that he seems to be back to full health (who knows how long that will last) he is back to being one of the elite pitchers in the league.

Maybe the White Sox would consider a Peavy for Arroyo swap? Both pitchers make a lot of money. But the Sox may prefer Arroyo's durability, even though Arroyo's SIERA was 135th in the league during the same period that Peavy's was 19th.

If there is ever going to be a time when the Reds might actually have a chance to trade Arroyo this is it. His contract is an albatross and his horrific 2011 and awful peripherals over the last few years may be overlooked by some teams due to his unsustainably low ERA for the first month of 2012. I doubt the Sox would trade Peavy for Arroyo but it can't hurt to ask.

I would rather have an injury-prone ace than a durable gopherball specialist. Move him now before the weather heats up and the balls start flying out of Great American Ball Park.

I have to admit the idea of getting Peavy in a Reds uniform sounds pretty cool. When he is on his game there aren't too many pitchers who are better. But he has dealt with injuries for so long I don't know if you will ever see a 2007ish season from him again.

The Sox are going to want an infusion of talent, young talent. If your going all in this season, as well as the next couple, I would think about moving Bailey for Peavy and keeping Chapman in the pen all year long. Then if you decide not to pick of Peavy's option move Chapman into the rotation starting next year and go with Cueto, Latos, Leake, Chapman and Arroyo. I would entertain the idea of Leake but over the course of his career I think Leake will be more durable and give a team more innings of comparable baseball to Bailey.

Vottomatic
05-11-2012, 01:17 PM
I have to admit the idea of getting Peavy in a Reds uniform sounds pretty cool. When he is on his game there aren't too many pitchers who are better. But he has dealt with injuries for so long I don't know if you will ever see a 2007ish season from him again.

The Sox are going to want an infusion of talent, young talent. If your going all in this season, as well as the next couple, I would think about moving Bailey for Peavy and keeping Chapman in the pen all year long. Then if you decide not to pick of Peavy's option move Chapman into the rotation starting next year and go with Cueto, Latos, Leake, Chapman and Arroyo. I would entertain the idea of Leake but over the course of his career I think Leake will be more durable and give a team more innings of comparable baseball to Bailey.

Good post about trading Bailey and Chapman. I don't sweat Peavy's injury history because if you obtain him, he is basically a free agent next year unless you pick up his $17M option, which you don't have to.

Agree. Trade Bailey, insert Peavy for the rest of the year. Don't pick up Peavy's contract, and move Chapman into the rotation next season.

A healthy Peavy pitching like he is now, would make whoever gets him serious World Series contenders.

Ghosts of 1990
05-11-2012, 01:44 PM
Wouldn't be bad to plug in for Leake would it? Also would eliminate a possibility of adding Chapman to the rotation later in the year. I don't know, he might break down at any moment. His resurgence is real though. Lots of mileage on that arm.

Vottomatic
05-11-2012, 03:41 PM
Nah. Cardinals will probably pick him up at the deadline and go on to win a consecutive World Series. They got plenty of payroll room since they didn't sign Pujols. And as usual, like Berkman's resurgence last year, they sign Beltran and he's back to top form. Never fails.

Watch the Cardinals get Peavy come August 1st. Wouldn't surprise me.

bucksfan2
05-11-2012, 04:56 PM
Wouldn't be bad to plug in for Leake would it? Also would eliminate a possibility of adding Chapman to the rotation later in the year. I don't know, he might break down at any moment. His resurgence is real though. Lots of mileage on that arm.

If I were to make a bet on who would be the more valuable starter over the next 5 years I would put my money on Leake. While I think Bailey has better pure stuff I think Leake is a better pitcher. I also think that Leake will be a guy who gives more innings than Bailey, something that I value pretty highly.

PuffyPig
05-13-2012, 10:54 AM
If I were to make a bet on who would be the more valuable starter over the next 5 years I would put my money on Leake. While I think Bailey has better pure stuff I think Leake is a better pitcher. I also think that Leake will be a guy who gives more innings than Bailey, something that I value pretty highly.

Leake is much cheaper and under team control for longer. Of course, that affects their respective trade value also.