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Kc61
05-10-2012, 01:04 PM
Reds with 7-3 stretch, now 16-14, 3.5 games out of first in Central, 8-6 at home, 8-8 on road, +6 in RS/RA differential. Cairo returns from DL, Harris taken off roster, Frazier remains with big club.

Offense - Team OPS is .694, ninth in NL, up from .678 last time. SLG is now .393 up from .375, currently sixth in NL, above NL average of .386. Team OBP is .301, down from .304 last time, currently thirteenth in NL. Team BA is .237, eleventh in the NL, slightly up from last time.

With OBP at only .301, focus is on walks and hits. Reds are eleventh in NL in walks with 88. Reds are eleventh in hits with 242. SLG is up this time, Reds are third in extra base hits in NL, with 96. Against lefties, Reds OBP is .321, above league average, and SLG is .386, also above league average. Against righties, Reds SLG is .394, above league average, but OBP is .295, well below NL average of .318 and fourteenth in the league.

Reds have stolen 14 bases, tied for 12-13th in NL. SB percentage is 82 percent, third best in the NL. Fangraphs has Reds team BABIP at .280, fifth lowest in the NL, and wOBA at .302, ninth from the top of the league.

Jay Bruce won NL player of the week and has been hot, now with 10 HRs, 23 RBI and .987 OPS, all leading club among those with meaningful AB numbers. Votto at .935 OPS. Nobody with OPS in the .800s. Cozart with .782. Nobody else in the .700s. Stubbs with .689, steadily climbing from early numbers. OBP number for Phillips, Ludwick, Heisey, Rolen all below .300.

Pitching - Reds with 3.27 team ERA, tied for 4th-5th in NL, improved from 3.63 last time. Starters are at 3.64, eighth in the league. Relievers at 2.48, best in the NL and significantly better than 3.75 NL average relief ERA. Reds home ERA is 3.33, ninth in NL. Reds road ERA is 3.21, fifth in the league.

Reds pitchers have walked 84 batters, tied for third lowest number in the NL. Strikeouts eighth in league at 226. As per Fangraphs, the Reds FIP and xFIP are 3.74. The FIP is sixth highest number in the league. The xFIP is mid-pack. ESPN shows the Reds DIP percentage as 120, the highest in the NL. I assume that is a good thing. Anyone with knowledge of these advanced, fielding independent stats, explanations and elaboration would be appreciated.

Chapman, Hoover, Ondrusek, Cueto, Arroyo, Simon, Arredondo all with ERA at 2.63 or below. No Reds pitcher is in the "3s" in ERA. The rest are 4.61 and higher including Lecure, Latos, Leake, Bailey, Marshall, and DL'd Bray. Chapman in 15.2 innings with 27 Ks and 4 BBs. Cueto at 4-0 with a 1.12 ERA in 48.1 innings with 31 Ks and 8 BBs. Arroyo at 2.75 ERA with 27 Ks and 4 walks. Reds overall K/BB ratio (pitchers) is 2.69, fourth best in the NL.

Fielding - Very good defensive stretch with only three errors since last time. Reds with 17 errors, tied for second least in NL. Fielding PCT of .985 among NL's best. Reds DER of .700 now seventh in NL (MLB.com stat). Fangraphs UZR for Reds is -4.8, in the bottom half.

757690
05-10-2012, 01:23 PM
Thanks, great report, as usual.
My take. Pitching is important. Can't be over valued. If that stays constant, the Reds will stay in contention all season. If they can start to get on base more, look out. :-)

Kc61
05-10-2012, 01:29 PM
Thanks, great report, as usual.
My take. Pitching is important. Can't be over valued. If that stays constant, the Reds will stay in contention all season. If they can start to get on base more, look out. :-)

Some of the hitters' OBPs vs. righty pitching are pitiful. If the Reds could add one or two guys who get on base against righties this team could be elevated to a really high level IMO. At this moment, this is the biggest weakness I see. Best pitching Reds have had in years.

757690
05-10-2012, 01:36 PM
Some of the hitters' OBPs vs. righty pitching are pitiful. If the Reds could add one or two guys who get on base against righties this team could be elevated to a really high level IMO. At this moment, this is the biggest weakness I see. Best pitching Reds have had in years.

Rolen is hitting the ball hard again. His peripherals are close to his career numbers. With his line drive and flyball rare raising, his BABIP won't be .203 all season. That should be a bid help. Same with Ludwick and his .196 BABIP.

powersackers
05-12-2012, 03:19 AM
Rolen is hitting the ball hard again. His peripherals are close to his career numbers. With his line drive and flyball rare raising, his BABIP won't be .203 all season. That should be a bid help. Same with Ludwick and his .196 BABIP.

I don't see Rolen hitting the ball hard. He's 4 for his last 26 and maybe 2 of those hits were hit hard. Plus a couple fly balls in MLW might be considered hit hard. He left 7 on base tonight where a hard hit ball would have most likely scored a run. His grounder to third was simply bobbled and not hit hard.

Love the guy, and thanks for 2010 but the writing is on the wall. Hope I'm wrong.

DGullett35
05-12-2012, 12:03 PM
Thanks for the report. I like reading these periodically. Hopefully you can do this every 30 games??

Kc61
05-12-2012, 12:48 PM
Thanks for the report. I like reading these periodically. Hopefully you can do this every 30 games??

I do them every ten games and hope to continue. I just wish I had more mastery of some of the more modern statistics. I'm trying, but I don't have time to study these that thoroughly and some of them are based on complex formulas and require some thought.

And if folks have additions or clarifications, they should all feel free to post to these threads. I know there are a lot of ways to read stats and I'm trying to give a relatively brief summary.

Thanks.