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OnBaseMachine
05-17-2012, 01:11 AM
Article from CBSsports' Danny Knobler on Aroldis Chapman.


There's no doubt that Baker is still the strongest advocate of keeping Chapman there. Some Reds people note that the manager is on a one-year contract, and say they understand it.

But it's not just Baker.

Jocketty doesn't rule out Chapman in the rotation at some point this year, but he also said, "We may become resigned to the fact that he may spend this year in the bullpen."


http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19068038/aroldis-chapman-may-be-the-best-pitcher-in-baseball--and-hes-pitching-the-eighth-inning

It's going to be painful when the Reds continue to waste Chapman's immense talent in the bullpen and then he leaves and goes on to become a dominant ace with another team. It's a shame seeing the Reds waste him. This guy has a chance to be an elite starting pitcher.

Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez would have been Hall of Fame relievers had they played for Dusty Baker.

Tommyjohn25
05-17-2012, 01:18 AM
This whole saga is so incredibly frustrating to watch. I normally end up agreeing with Jocketty, but on this, I think he is completely off his rocker.

gonelong
05-17-2012, 01:18 AM
I'm torn, they are bringing in AC in very high leverage situations and he is just flat out killing it.

On the other hand, if he works out in the rotation like we think he might that gives you Chapman, Cueto, Latos .... I'll take my chances with that.

GL

WildcatFan
05-17-2012, 01:24 AM
I'd also like to see him in the rotation, but I have to admit Dusty is using him almost perfectly from the pen. It could be worse; he could be the closer.

All I know is he's fun to watch. The combination of his ability and the fact that there isn't a hitter in baseball that has confidence at the plate against him is making him flat unhittable. The only guy that can hurt him is himself, and he's making dang sure that doesn't happen.

RedEye
05-17-2012, 01:28 AM
I have to think he'll be starting before the end of the season. If Dusty and Jocketty were to come out and say that he would be starting soon, it wouldn't be too good for the morale of the pitchers currently in the rotation. Rest assured, Homer and Leake can see the writing on the wall with this guy. He's on the come... and fast.

Superdude
05-17-2012, 01:37 AM
:thumbdown: Listening to Walt and Dusty talk about Chapman is like listening to a smoker talk about giving up cigarettes. "I'm just so busy right now. It'll be easier next week." Still smoking 2 years later...

757690
05-17-2012, 02:01 AM
Article from CBSsports' Danny Knobler on Aroldis Chapman.



http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19068038/aroldis-chapman-may-be-the-best-pitcher-in-baseball--and-hes-pitching-the-eighth-inning

It's going to be painful when the Reds continue to waste Chapman's immense talent in the bullpen and then he leaves and goes on to become a dominant ace with another team. It's a shame seeing the Reds waste him. This guy has a chance to be an elite starting pitcher.

Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez would have been Hall of Fame relievers had they played for Dusty Baker.

Unless he is traded, Chapman will be a Red at least until 2017.

I would love to see him in the rotation right now, but the team feels it needs him at this point in the bullpen. I disagree, but can accept it as long as I know that he will be starting next season, if not sooner. That would mean at least four years of him in the Reds rotation. While I would prefer it were five, four is more than acceptable.

WVRedsFan
05-17-2012, 02:06 AM
If they continue to refuse to put Chapman in the rotation, it will be a huge mistake as we watch him win many games elsewhere. Time to ditch the fools gold that is Bailey or even Arroyo and Leake and see what he can do. Foolish to waste this arm for one inning a night.

AtomicDumpling
05-17-2012, 02:23 AM
Somebody help me with the math here. Would it be better to have 200 innings per year of the Cuban Missile or would 60 innings be better?

fearofpopvol1
05-17-2012, 02:36 AM
Somebody help me with the math here. Would it be better to have 200 innings per year of the Cuban Missile or would 60 innings be better?

Depends on the amount of earned runs he gives up. Chapman starting may not turn out as well as we hope. With that said, he deserves the chance and the opportunity to start for sure.

I really want Chapman in the rotation. I can't fault Dusty/Walt too much here. The bullpen is en fuego and they don't want to ruin a good thing. Keep in mind, Bray and Masset have to come off the DL at some point. That might be the time to make the move.

757690
05-17-2012, 02:40 AM
Somebody help me with the math here. Would it be better to have 200 innings per year of the Cuban Missile or would 60 innings be better?

If you figure in the leverage of each of those innings, it can be quite close in terms of wins for the team. I believe Cameron at Fangraphs did the math and said that if the team is in the pennant race all season, a late inning reliever can be worth as much as a starter for his team.

Let's put it this way. Replace Leake with Chapman in the rotation, and replace Chapman with whoever would get the call from AAA in the pen. Would that have yielded more wins for the team? You get maximum five wins from Chapman in the rotation. But how many less wins would you get without him in the pen so far this season? More innings from Simon, LeCure, and whoever gets called up, more 8th innings from Ondrusek, more 7th innings from Arrondondo. It's close.

AtomicDumpling
05-17-2012, 02:50 AM
If you figure in the leverage of each of those innings, it can be quite close in terms of wins for the team. I believe Cameron at Fangraphs did the math and said that if the team is in the pennant race all season, a late inning reliever can be worth as much as a starter for his team.

Let's put it this way. Replace Leake with Chapman in the rotation, and replace Chapman with whoever would get the call from AAA in the pen. Would that have yielded more wins for the team? You get maximum five wins from Chapman in the rotation. But how many less wins would you get without him in the pen so far this season? More innings from Simon, LeCure, and whoever gets called up, more 8th innings from Ondrusek, more 7th innings from Arrondondo. It's close.

If you have better starting pitchers it reduces the leverage of the late innings because you will have a larger lead on average. Getting 200 innings out of Chapman would make those 8th innings much less challenging.

757690
05-17-2012, 03:21 AM
If you have better starting pitchers it reduces the leverage of the late innings because you will have a larger lead on average. Getting 200 innings out of Chapman would make those 8th innings much less challenging.

Excellent point. That definitely should be part of the equation.

The Operator
05-17-2012, 04:16 AM
Excellent point. That definitely should be part of the equation.A biiiig part of the equation, IMO. He obviously won't be posting a 0.00 ERA or averaging 16-18 K/9 (or would he? :eek: ;)), but I have to think having him in the rotation is where he'll give the Reds the best possible impact on their run differential. And while not always perfect, Pythagoras generally knows his stuff when it comes to baseball.

camisadelgolf
05-17-2012, 05:39 AM
I contemplated starting a new thread for this, but it seemed relevant enough. There's plenty more at the link below.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cincinnati-reds-aroldis-chapman-may-be-starter-someday-but-for-now-will-stay-in-bullpen-051612

One day, the Reds promise, left-hander Aroldis Chapman will be a starting pitcher. But it can’t happen yet, not when two of the team’s top setup men remain on the disabled list. And not everyone with the team is certain it should happen it all.

Reds' Aroldis Chapman is on pace to shatter the MLB strikeout record.
“I honestly don’t think he can be as effective as a starting pitcher,” right-hander Bronson Arroyo, one of the Reds’ starters, said Wednesday. “I definitely think (relieving) is his forte.”

Vottomatic
05-17-2012, 07:31 AM
Well, what I find frustrating is that if you're not gong to start him, then make him the closer.

The Reds management hasn't exactly been good with these kind of key decisions. Waiting a long time to bring up Cozart last year was ridiculous.

edabbs44
05-17-2012, 08:20 AM
Its not an open and shut case. Bronson makes some good points.

mdccclxix
05-17-2012, 09:00 AM
It's not just Madsen, but Masset and Bray too. Three relievers gone, and Chapman? No way. I could see if they had 23 wins right now where they've feel more confident, but things are going well.

I wonder if Francis gets the call before Chapman if the rotation has an injury? Probably.

If they want to stretch him out, could they not just start relieving him for 2 innings, then 3, then even 4, then start him? Dusty is making it seem too hard isn't he?

Always Red
05-17-2012, 09:05 AM
Just think how awesome he might be as a closer, now that he throws consistent strikes.

Did the Yankees mishandle the incredible Mo Rivera all those years by keeping him out of the rotation and holding him down to 60-80 innings a year?

I don't have a good answer, I think it all depends on how you look at it. Do you want your best pitchers throwing the most amount of innings, or pitching in the highest leveraged situations? (Not that those things are mutually exclusive, because they are not, of course). Often, a game is decided in the early innings.

I'd rather have my best pitchers pitching the most innings.

klw
05-17-2012, 09:14 AM
Chapman is not stretched out to go 200 innings in a season yet. A plan to start him in the pen to limit innings with a transition to starting at midseason or when an injury puts someone on the shelf would be a sensible way to up his innings without facing a pennant race or playoff shutdown. Hopefully at that point Bray and or Massett would be back too. I'm not saying that is the plan but it would make sense for a transition to starting.

mdccclxix
05-17-2012, 09:16 AM
Its not an open and shut case. Bronson makes some good points.

He does, and Price reiterates the same thing about how you have to dial it back to last longer, the batters see you more so they have an advantage, there may be less pressure on the batter, etc.

However, Chapman is so good right now its easy to imagine he'd be awesome as a starter. For example, I looked up his pitches per out, it's just over 5. Multiply that by 21 outs, 7 innings, that's 105 pitches. Cueto is at 103 pitches for 6.5 innings per start. It's not hard to imagine 5-6-7 innings of 100 pitch ball at around a 3 era for Chapman. Shut down domination potential.

The biggest problem is the huge hole it would create in the bullpen. But if it failed he could be moved back! :D

If Cueto, Latos, Chapman, AND Arroyo ever got smoking around a 2 ERA for a month, down the stretch, these are the things that take you really really far. Teams start rolling over when they see you come through town. Can you imagine seeing Chapman one night and Arroyo the next? :lol:

mdccclxix
05-17-2012, 09:17 AM
Chapman is not stretched out to go 200 innings in a season yet. A plan to start him in the pen to limit innings with a transition to starting at midseason or when an injury puts someone on the shelf would be a sensible way to up his innings without facing a pennant race or playoff shutdown. Hopefully at that point Bray and or Massett would be back too. I'm not saying that is the plan but it would make sense for a transition to starting.

Couldn't have said it any better. :beerme:

klw
05-17-2012, 09:17 AM
On an aside: from the CBS Sports Power Rankings
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/19065042/power-rankings-angels-fail-red-sox-flail-orioles-sail-at-quarter-pole

13 Reds Trends 12
I love how much Reds fans in general seem to love Dusty Baker. It's heartwarming.

brad1176
05-17-2012, 09:19 AM
Mo Rivera was a starter early in his career and couldn't make it as a starter. The Yankees nearly released him before deciding to stick him in the bullpen and the rest is history. Most pitchers are given the chance to start until they prove that they can't do it effectively, then they get switched to relieving. Chapman has gone the opposite route, he's only relieved and not really started except in spring training this year. With no minor league starting experience and no major league starting experience, it's very hard to say what he will do in that role. He might dominate, but then again he may get shelled as he gets exposed, kind of what Bronson was saying in that article.

lollipopcurve
05-17-2012, 09:40 AM
Of course Arroyo loves him in the pen. All starters love a shutdown bullpen.

The key is Chapman's secondary stuff, because it seems now he can throw the fastball for strikes consistently. If he can command his slider, he can be successful in the rotation. I'd say so far so good. You have to give him a shot in the rotation -- the upside is just way too good. They've got Marshall locked down for 3 years, and Ondrusek under control for several years too. The back of the pen projects as pretty settled, and they can find additional help in a variety of markets and in their own system. The move is going to have to be made by 2013 at the latest, and Baker will have to go along with it if he wants to stick around, IMO.

bucksfan2
05-17-2012, 09:43 AM
Somebody help me with the math here. Would it be better to have 200 innings per year of the Cuban Missile or would 60 innings be better?

Chapman wouldn't be throwing 200 innings nor should he. Does that answer your question?

But I do agree with your point when you look just at Chapman. But when you look at the entire construction of the team it becomes a little more complicated. If you believe that the Reds have a rotation that is above average and Chapman makes the pen one of the best in the game, isn't that better? If the Reds can stretch Chapman to two innings at a time that would shorten the game to a 6 inning game with Chapman in the 7th and 8th and Marshall in the 9th. I think bullpens are become a little underrated in today's game. The old mantra of 200 innings is better than 60 is correct, but a dominant pen makes up for a lot of short comings.

dunner13
05-17-2012, 09:55 AM
I hope the plan is to move Chapman into the rotation by the end of June/early July, looking at the Strasburg situation where they may have to shut him down in September while there trying to make a playoff run or not have him available for the playoffs would be a nightmare. I would much rather have Chapman pitch in the bullpen in April/May/June and be available to start in September and October. Of course this assumes that they do move him to the rotation this year and not keep him as a reliever all year.

Always Red
05-17-2012, 09:57 AM
Mo Rivera was a starter early in his career and couldn't make it as a starter. The Yankees nearly released him before deciding to stick him in the bullpen and the rest is history. Most pitchers are given the chance to start until they prove that they can't do it effectively, then they get switched to relieving. Chapman has gone the opposite route, he's only relieved and not really started except in spring training this year. With no minor league starting experience and no major league starting experience, it's very hard to say what he will do in that role. He might dominate, but then again he may get shelled as he gets exposed, kind of what Bronson was saying in that article.

Rivera was 3 years removed from major arm surgery when he started 10 games for the Yankees in 1995. Those are the only 10 games he ever started. Not sure you can say "failed" after 10 games, small sample size and all...plus he developed the infamous cutter after moving to the bullpen.

He was not almost released, but was nearly traded to the Tigers for David Wells. Gene Michael changed his mind when he learned he was throwing 96 mph in his latest start, an improvement over his usual 90mph. He had a 2 hit shut out on July 4th, 1995 against the White Sox.

He was moved to the bullpen in the late part of the season, pitched very effectively in the playoffs that year from the bullpen, and was moved there for good in 1996, and the rest is history, especially after he learned to throw the cutter in mid 1997. Interestingly, Mel Stottlemyre tried to cure him of the cutter that year, thinking the ball moved too much and was not controllable.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160757/index.htm

Hoosier Red
05-17-2012, 09:59 AM
Somebody help me with the math here. Would it be better to have 200 innings per year of the Cuban Missile or would 60 innings be better?

But that's not really the whole equation.

It's more like 150 innings of Starter Missile or 85-90 innings of Reliever Missile

We know (as much as one can know) that those 85-90 innings are going to be damn near unhittable but we're not sure just how awesome those starting innings would be.

hebroncougar
05-17-2012, 10:03 AM
I don't mind how they're using him. The Reds have 3 starters that are pretty good. The fourth and fifth, I think, will come around to league average. Having Chapman, Ondrusek, and Marshall sure remind me of 1990. As long as Baker uses those three like 1990, I'm ok with it.

Big Klu
05-17-2012, 10:24 AM
I don't mind how they're using him. The Reds have 3 starters that are pretty good. The fourth and fifth, I think, will come around to league average. Having Chapman, Ondrusek, and Marshall sure remind me of 1990. As long as Baker uses those three like 1990, I'm ok with it.

Norm Charlton made 16 starts and threw 154.1 innings in 1990.

hebroncougar
05-17-2012, 10:37 AM
Norm Charlton made 16 starts and threw 154.1 innings in 1990.

Yes, I know that. Yet, he's listed as a RP on Baseball Reference, and remembered as being one of the three "nasty boys". What's that tell you? Was he perceived to be more valuable out of the pen or as a starter?

brad1176
05-17-2012, 10:45 AM
Rivera was 3 years removed from major arm surgery when he started 10 games for the Yankees in 1995. Those are the only 10 games he ever started. Not sure you can say "failed" after 10 games, small sample size and all...plus he developed the infamous cutter after moving to the bullpen.

He was not almost released, but was nearly traded to the Tigers for David Wells. Gene Michael changed his mind when he learned he was throwing 96 mph in his latest start, an improvement over his usual 90mph. He had a 2 hit shut out on July 4th, 1995 against the White Sox.

He was moved to the bullpen in the late part of the season, pitched very effectively in the playoffs that year from the bullpen, and was moved there for good in 1996, and the rest is history, especially after he learned to throw the cutter in mid 1997. Interestingly, Mel Stottlemyre tried to cure him of the cutter that year, thinking the ball moved too much and was not controllable.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160757/index.htm

He started 68 (one was in 2002) games in the minors and 10 in the majors.

The almost being released part, I went back to find the article about it, couldn't find it of course. If I find it, I'll post it. I knew he was nearly traded twice.

A lot of things went right for Mo in his career, can you imagine if Stottlemyre had 'cured' him of the cutter? :eek:

membengal
05-17-2012, 10:50 AM
Yes, I know that. Yet, he's listed as a RP on Baseball Reference, and remembered as being one of the three "nasty boys". What's that tell you? Was he perceived to be more valuable out of the pen or as a starter?

It tells me that if Norm hadn't started, there may not have been a "nasty boys" to remember because they wouldn't have been in a position to make the playoffs in the first place.

hebroncougar
05-17-2012, 10:58 AM
It tells me that if Norm hadn't started, there may not have been a "nasty boys" to remember because they wouldn't have been in a position to make the playoffs in the first place.

That's funny. The Reds were 52-31 with Charlton in the pen. 39-40 with him in the rotation. I'd say they were just fine with him in the pen as well. He pitched well in both roles. But to say that the Reds wouldn't have made the playoffs w/o him starting is a stretch. But, to each their own.

redhawkfish
05-17-2012, 10:58 AM
One thing I know, no matter how they choose to use Chapman, is that I have no interest in seeing him attempt to barrel over a big league catcher like Charlton did to Scosia!:)

hebroncougar
05-17-2012, 10:59 AM
One thing I know, no matter how they choose to use Chapman, is that I have no interest in seeing him attempt to barrel over a big league catcher like Charlton did to Scosia!:)

One of my all time favorite memories. Go Stormin' Norman!

membengal
05-17-2012, 11:00 AM
That's funny. The Reds were 52-31 with Charlton in the pen. 39-40 with him in the rotation. I'd say they were just fine with him in the pen as well. He pitched well in both roles. But to say that the Reds wouldn't have made the playoffs w/o him starting is a stretch. But, to each their own.

That's funny, discounting the value of 16 starts in a year where they were huffing and puffing to hold onto first in August is also a stretch...

Point is, Norm had huge value, and it wasn't simply becaue he relieved, no matter how people remember it now.

hebroncougar
05-17-2012, 11:01 AM
That's funny, discounting the value of 16 starts in a year where they were huffing and puffing to hold onto first in August is also a stretch...

Point is, Norm had huge value, and it wasn't simply becaue he relieved, no matter how people remember it now.

I didn't discount anything. I said he was valuable in both roles. I said the perception was he was more valuable as a member of the nasty boys. You're arguing just to argue.

membengal
05-17-2012, 11:02 AM
I didn't discount anything. I said he was valuable in both roles. You're arguing just to argue.

I am not, but thanks for being dismissive!

High five!

Big Klu
05-17-2012, 11:39 AM
Yes, I know that. Yet, he's listed as a RP on Baseball Reference, and remembered as being one of the three "nasty boys". What's that tell you? Was he perceived to be more valuable out of the pen or as a starter?

It tells me that he made 40 relief appearances.

Charlton was very valuable in the pen--otherwise, Lou would not have returned him there for the postseason. But if Norm hadn't moved to the rotation in the second half of the season, I don't think the Reds would have won the division. He was one of the three most effective starters on the team, along with Rijo and Browning. (Jackson was still coming back from injury, and Armstrong was ineffective in the second half.) Without him, the Reds would have been stuck with Scudder, Mahler, and Hammond vying for the last spot.

jojo
05-17-2012, 11:44 AM
I'm one to think the transition to a starter's role wouldn't be bump free for Chapman. But it is alot of fun to be a Reds fan these days. They not only are good (we should expect them to be above .500) but they have some guys who are creme of the crop major league talents. People stop and watch Votto hit. People stop and watch Chapman pitch....

edabbs44
05-17-2012, 11:46 AM
Here's a hypothetical...if he becomes a starter and he isn't what everyone expects him to be, when (if ever) do you consider to bring him back to the pen?

Sea Ray
05-17-2012, 11:50 AM
Well, what I find frustrating is that if you're not gong to start him, then make him the closer.

The Reds management hasn't exactly been good with these kind of key decisions. Waiting a long time to bring up Cozart last year was ridiculous.

He doesn't have the arm to be a closer or they don't want to put his arm through that sort of regimine. He might have to pitch 3 days in a row as a closer

traderumor
05-17-2012, 11:52 AM
He doesn't have the arm to be a closer or they don't want to put his arm through that sort of regimine. He might have to pitch 3 days in a row as a closerBesides, what's wrong with the guy we've been using? Oh yea, his #1 pitch is a curveball and not a 95+ fastball, because we know that closers must throw hard to get the job done. ;)

Never mind 20:3 k/bb ratio, closer has to be "dominant." Oh wait, that is dominant, but its with curveballs. We need a new closer.

membengal
05-17-2012, 11:55 AM
It tells me that he made 40 relief appearances.

Charlton was very valuable in the pen--otherwise, Lou would not have returned him there for the postseason. But if Norm hadn't moved to the rotation in the second half of the season, I don't think the Reds would have won the division. He was one of the three most effective starters on the team, along with Rijo and Browning. (Jackson was still coming back from injury, and Armstrong was ineffective in the second half.) Without him, the Reds would have been stuck with Scudder, Mahler, and Hammond vying for the last spot.



THIS!

Sea Ray
05-17-2012, 11:56 AM
Besides, what's wrong with the guy we've been using? Oh yea, his #1 pitch is a curveball and not a 95+ fastball, because we know that closers must throw hard to get the job done. ;)



He threw a 93 MPH FB last night. Guys like that shouldn't fall in love with their CBs.

Now back to Chapman...

Kc61
05-17-2012, 11:56 AM
I don't mind how they're using him. The Reds have 3 starters that are pretty good. The fourth and fifth, I think, will come around to league average. Having Chapman, Ondrusek, and Marshall sure remind me of 1990. As long as Baker uses those three like 1990, I'm ok with it.

I agree with this.

I wanted Chapman in the rotation this year, but injuries hurt the bullpen. So Chappy stayed in the pen and it is working out well. No reason to change it.

I've seen enough blown games in the late innings to value powerhouse relievers. He is contributing mightily and there is no reason to change it mid-season. And I don' see any reason to switch Chapman to closer, unless Marshall falters.

If Madson had been healthy, I would have a different view on Chapman as a starter this year.

I fully expect Chapman to be in the rotation next year, no matter what. They will make room in the rotation and bolster the pen to allow for that result. I'm not sure he will be as good a starter as a reliever, where he is absolutely top notch, but I think we'll find out in 2013.

_Sir_Charles_
05-17-2012, 11:57 AM
If you have better starting pitchers it reduces the leverage of the late innings because you will have a larger lead on average. Getting 200 innings out of Chapman would make those 8th innings much less challenging.

I'd say the odds of 200 innings from Chapman even if he converted TODAY are beyond long.

_Sir_Charles_
05-17-2012, 12:07 PM
Until Bronson leaves via FA, this rotation is pretty set IMO. If Homer had options it might be an easier problem. But after Bronson leaves, I'm pretty sure that the Reds are going to be glad that they still have Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Leake to team with Chapman. Dealing off a Bailey or Leake now, leaves us with a hole after Bronson leaves. Sure, we "might" fill that from the minors. But Leake & Bailey both look like that can become very solid mlb starters IMO.

Chapman in the rotation sounds great. But when he was trying it in Louisville the last time, he was pretty bad. Maybe he'll be better this time around, but until then, I'm fine with where he is. I'd like more 2 inning stints, but that's picking nits I think.

jojo
05-17-2012, 12:16 PM
He threw a 93 MPH FB last night. Guys like that shouldn't fall in love with their CBs.

Now back to Chapman...

Thats like telling Lidge to stop throwing his slider so much....

Kc61
05-17-2012, 12:29 PM
Until Bronson leaves via FA, this rotation is pretty set IMO. If Homer had options it might be an easier problem. But after Bronson leaves, I'm pretty sure that the Reds are going to be glad that they still have Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Leake to team with Chapman. Dealing off a Bailey or Leake now, leaves us with a hole after Bronson leaves. Sure, we "might" fill that from the minors. But Leake & Bailey both look like that can become very solid mlb starters IMO.

Chapman in the rotation sounds great. But when he was trying it in Louisville the last time, he was pretty bad. Maybe he'll be better this time around, but until then, I'm fine with where he is. I'd like more 2 inning stints, but that's picking nits I think.

Keep in mind that Bronson would be quite tradeable this next off-season, assuming he accepted the deal. He's having a good year, he has one more season left on his contract.

Given the new big salaries for Votto and Phillips, the Reds just might be happy to trade off Bronson this off-season and reduce payroll. Chappy to rotation. Some new relievers, maybe even Madson at a lower rate for a year.

I agree with you, though, that it's no guarantee that Aroldis will be as good in the rotation. Right now he's an unhittable reliever who can work two innings if required. Nobody should underestimate the value of such a pitcher, even in a set-up role.

PuffyPig
05-17-2012, 12:37 PM
It's quite a stretch to say that since Chapman is in the bullpen today that he'll spend the next 4.5 years there.

Chapman's delivery has improved 100% this year. I'm not so sure I would be so quick to change his roll right now and risk having him regress. There is nothing wrong with some more sustained success. If Massett/Bray come back, it can be revisited then. Plus, how many innings do we want him throwing this year? Certainly not 200.

gonelong
05-17-2012, 12:39 PM
It seems to me that anybody that throws that hard seems to blow their arms out sooner rather than later. (faulty perception on my part?)

I like Chapman in the pen for several reason.
1. You can use him in very high leverage situations.
2. I have a chance to see him pitch pretty much any day I am at the ballpark. :)
3. What is the risk/reward of the possbility of him blowing his arm out if starting?

GL

traderumor
05-17-2012, 01:17 PM
He threw a 93 MPH FB last night. Guys like that shouldn't fall in love with their CBs.

Now back to Chapman...I'm having a hard time arguing with someone that gets swings and misses at the rate either Marshall or Chapman does. What pitches they use to do so is irrelevant.

MikeThierry
05-17-2012, 01:18 PM
From an outsider's view, I pray to god that the Reds put him in the rotation. Right now, the Reds have a known quantity in the bullpen and it's lock down in the 7th, 8th, 9th innings. If the Reds go in with a lead in the 7th inning, just end the game right there. I know some of the starters in the Reds rotation have struggle but it just doesn't make any sense (again from an outsider fan of another Central team) to mess with something that has worked brilliantly.

There's no guarantee that he will be as successful in the rotation as well. There is a great chance that his velocity will not remain the same in the rotation as it would be in the pen. I know that he has two dominant pitches but his other stuff is still a work in progress, at least from what I'm reading. If he's in the rotation, he will probably be using more of his secondary pitches than he's used to. I'm not saying he won't be successful in the rotation but I just question why they would screw with a good thing.

REDREAD
05-17-2012, 02:24 PM
It's quite a stretch to say that since Chapman is in the bullpen today that he'll spend the next 4.5 years there.

Chapman's delivery has improved 100% this year. I'm not so sure I would be so quick to change his roll right now and risk having him regress. There is nothing wrong with some more sustained success. If Massett/Bray come back, it can be revisited then. Plus, how many innings do we want him throwing this year? Certainly not 200.

That's what I think too.
Another thing that is exciting. Both Leake and Homer pitched well in their last starts. No guarantee of future success, but there's hope they can hold down the back of the rotation.

If you're looking ahead to the playoffs, Chapman out of the pen is an incredible weapon. A correlation study said the best correlation of World Series winners was bullpen and defense. With all the off days in the post season, Chapman can make an impact on many postseason games. If Arroyo, Latos, and Cueto continue to pitch effectively, I think Chapman in the pen is better for the playoffs. Even if Masset and Bray come back, because Chapman is so much better than they are.

Thankfully, this is not a normal Reds team that has a Josh Fogg or another obviously black hole in the rotation. Less urgency to move Chapman to the rotation.

This year, I'd rather have 70 bullpen innings of Chapman than 150ish innings of Starter Chapman and more appearances by Simon, Hoover, etc. Nothing against them, but they aren't Chapman.

Lastly, Dusty has a quicker hook with starters this year. The deep and effective pen lets him do that. Hopefully Chapman, Marshall, etc prevent Logan from being gassed at the end of the year as he was last season.

Superdude
05-17-2012, 02:28 PM
“He’s going to throw a lot of pitches. As good as his stuff is, you’re going to get a lot of swings and misses. If you’re getting a lot of swings and misses, at times you’ll have control problems. And you’ll get a lot of high pitch counts for every hitter. So, you’re probably going to throw 100 pitches after five innings every time."

Bronson's settled it everyone. If you get a lot of swings and misses, you're going to have control problems. Maybe we should just hide Chapman in long relief before these impending control problems set in. ;)

The Operator
05-17-2012, 02:32 PM
Swings and misses lead to control problems? LOL. No wonder Bronson's control is so good.

MikeThierry
05-17-2012, 02:56 PM
That's what I think too.
Another thing that is exciting. Both Leake and Homer pitched well in their last starts. No guarantee of future success, but there's hope they can hold down the back of the rotation.

If you're looking ahead to the playoffs, Chapman out of the pen is an incredible weapon. A correlation study said the best correlation of World Series winners was bullpen and defense. With all the off days in the post season, Chapman can make an impact on many postseason games. If Arroyo, Latos, and Cueto continue to pitch effectively, I think Chapman in the pen is better for the playoffs. Even if Masset and Bray come back, because Chapman is so much better than they are.

Thankfully, this is not a normal Reds team that has a Josh Fogg or another obviously black hole in the rotation. Less urgency to move Chapman to the rotation.

This year, I'd rather have 70 bullpen innings of Chapman than 150ish innings of Starter Chapman and more appearances by Simon, Hoover, etc. Nothing against them, but they aren't Chapman.

Lastly, Dusty has a quicker hook with starters this year. The deep and effective pen lets him do that. Hopefully Chapman, Marshall, etc prevent Logan from being gassed at the end of the year as he was last season.

Well said. Take last year's playoffs for example. Both the Rangers and Cardinals relied heavily on their bullpen. I think in the World Series, the Cardinals bullpen pitched more innings than the starting pitchers.

Rojo
05-17-2012, 02:58 PM
Chapman's got the most IP in the best pen in baseball -- he's hardly being wasted.

Also, I'm not for giving pitchers a full workload until they hit 25 and gain their "man strength". I'd prefer Dusty give him longer outings, but it's hard to argue with the results.

RedsManRick
05-17-2012, 03:34 PM
Chapman's got the most IP in the best pen in baseball -- he's hardly being wasted.

Also, I'm not for giving pitchers a full workload until they hit 25 and gain their "man strength". I'd prefer Dusty give him longer outings, but it's hard to argue with the results.

When you look at leverage index when he's called on to enter the game, he's second to Logan Ondrusek (1.93 to 1.61).

If you you look at win probability added relative to the leverage index, Chapman has been the Reds most productive pitcher this year, ahead of Cueto.

Rojo
05-17-2012, 03:51 PM
When you look at leverage index when he's called on to enter the game, he's second to Logan Ondrusek (1.93 to 1.61).

If you you look at win probability added relative to the leverage index, Chapman has been the Reds most productive pitcher this year, ahead of Cueto.

Not sure how that's calculated but it sounds right. I always think of the Tommy Lasorda formula that the best teams loose a third of their games, and the worst win a third, ergo it's the "middle third" that decides championships.

Iron tight pens nail down the "middle third".

OnBaseMachine
05-17-2012, 04:57 PM
Pitching on back-to-back days for the first time this season, Chapman looked the worst he has all season.

reds44
05-17-2012, 05:00 PM
....and still didn't give up an earned run.

lollipopcurve
05-17-2012, 06:13 PM
...and still didn't give up an earned run.

35 pitches in his inning. That's as much as he's thrown in an single outing this year, I think. And on his first back-to-back outing. This guy should not be in training to become the next Scott Sullivan. Not saying that's happening, but this kind of usage should be nipped in the bud, IMO.

Kc61
05-17-2012, 06:23 PM
35 pitches in his inning. That's as much as he's thrown in an single outing this year, I think. And on his first back-to-back outing. This guy should not be in training to become the next Scott Sullivan. Not saying that's happening, but this kind of usage should be nipped in the bud, IMO.

IMO Dusty did absolutely nothing wrong by using Chapman today.

He had a very easy inning last night. Wright and two lefties were coming up in a close game today.

And Aroldis didn't look gassed by 35 pitches. He struck out the last hitter with dynamite stuff.

I'm sure the Reds will rest Chapman tomorrow, possibly even Saturday.

And Dusty knows how important Chapman is and he won't try to turn him into Scott Sullivan, who was the ultimate rubber armed reliever IMO.

Degenerate39
05-17-2012, 06:40 PM
Time to put him in the rotation

Joseph
05-17-2012, 06:45 PM
I'm on the opposite side of the fence I guess. I don't have faith he can produce #s in the rotation anywhere near the bullpen. I think he's more Homer Bailey than Johnny Cueto when in the rotation.

lollipopcurve
05-17-2012, 07:49 PM
IMO Dusty did absolutely nothing wrong by using Chapman today.

Dusty is going to have a hard time not using Chapman the way he has used his best setup men in the past. Thinking here of Masset, who has been among the league leaders in appearances the last several years. That's what I'm worried about.

Cedric
05-17-2012, 07:57 PM
IMO Dusty did absolutely nothing wrong by using Chapman today.

He had a very easy inning last night. Wright and two lefties were coming up in a close game today.

And Aroldis didn't look gassed by 35 pitches. He struck out the last hitter with dynamite stuff.

I'm sure the Reds will rest Chapman tomorrow, possibly even Saturday.

And Dusty knows how important Chapman is and he won't try to turn him into Scott Sullivan, who was the ultimate rubber armed reliever IMO.

I couldn't disagree more actually. Dusty rode the bullpen way too hard last year and if given the chance he will do the same to Chapman this year. He shouldn't be given the choice.

AtomicDumpling
05-17-2012, 08:09 PM
I'd say the odds of 200 innings from Chapman even if he converted TODAY are beyond long.

Nor will he pitch 200 innings next year because the Reds have continued to mishandle him yet again this year. If the Reds had stretched him out properly last year then he could possibly have pitched 200 innings this year, and that is the point people are making. He is never going to pitch 200 innings if the Reds insist on using him as a reliever.

If you have your best pitchers throw the most innings then you will have a bigger lead in the late innings. I don't see any logical reason for having inferior pitchers throw more innings than your best pitchers.

Ask the opposing hitters if they would rather face the Missile for one inning or seven innings.

edabbs44
05-17-2012, 08:42 PM
Nor will he pitch 200 innings next year because the Reds have continued to mishandle him yet again this year. If the Reds had stretched him out properly last year then he could possibly have pitched 200 innings this year, and that is the point people are making. He is never going to pitch 200 innings if the Reds insist on using him as a reliever.

If you have your best pitchers throw the most innings then you will have a bigger lead in the late innings. I don't see any logical reason for having inferior pitchers throw more innings than your best pitchers.

Ask the opposing hitters if they would rather face the Missile for one inning or seven innings.

Aroldis is one of the best pitchers as a reliever...no guarantees when he is a starter.

edabbs44
05-17-2012, 08:43 PM
I couldn't disagree more actually. Dusty rode the bullpen way too hard last year and if given the chance he will do the same to Chapman this year. He shouldn't be given the choice.

The rap on Dusty is that he rides the starters too hard as well.

TheNext44
05-17-2012, 09:06 PM
The rap on Dusty is that he rides the starters too hard as well.

Clearly, Dusty needs to stop pitching his pitchers so much. ;)

lollipopcurve
05-17-2012, 10:04 PM
The problem with Baker's staff management, IMO, is that he segments his bullpen into guys who pitch in close/winnable games and guys who pitch in blowouts (exceptions occur under certain uncommon circumstances). It's kind of a first string/second string mentality, and it leads to his best relievers getting overused during periods when the team plays lots of close games. He should show more confidence in guys like Lecure, Simon and Hoover than he does. Each of those guys is perfectly capable of holding the other team scoreless more often than not, and his showing confidence in them has the potential to bring out the best in them. The case in point I always think of is Pete Mackanin's use of Jared Burton. Burton had been buried in the pen, hardly ever getting into games. When Mackanin took over, he decided he would give Burton a shot in the late innings -- and presto, the guy blossomed. Baker needs to turn to that page in the playbook way more often, IMO. He can find more talent than he thinks he has, and he can keep his best talent better rested for the long haul.

klw
05-17-2012, 10:06 PM
Clearly, Dusty needs to stop pitching his pitchers so much. ;)

Does he not realize that he has Valdez on the roster???????????????

Kc61
05-17-2012, 10:49 PM
I couldn't disagree more actually. Dusty rode the bullpen way too hard last year and if given the chance he will do the same to Chapman this year. He shouldn't be given the choice.

Even if Dusty wanted to overuse Chapman, do you really think Jocketty would allow it? Give these guys a little credit.

Chip R
05-17-2012, 10:51 PM
The problem with Baker's staff management, IMO, is that he segments his bullpen into guys who pitch in close/winnable games and guys who pitch in blowouts (exceptions occur under certain uncommon circumstances). It's kind of a first string/second string mentality, and it leads to his best relievers getting overused during periods when the team plays lots of close games. He should show more confidence in guys like Lecure, Simon and Hoover than he does. Each of those guys is perfectly capable of holding the other team scoreless more often than not, and his showing confidence in them has the potential to bring out the best in them. The case in point I always think of is Pete Mackanin's use of Jared Burton. Burton had been buried in the pen, hardly ever getting into games. When Mackanin took over, he decided he would give Burton a shot in the late innings -- and presto, the guy blossomed. Baker needs to turn to that page in the playbook way more often, IMO. He can find more talent than he thinks he has, and he can keep his best talent better rested for the long haul.

Wait a minute! You mean he's just like every other manager??!!

lollipopcurve
05-18-2012, 03:02 AM
Wait a minute! You mean he's just like every other manager??!!

I don't know that that's true. Do you? How?

Again, Masset has been very, very high on the leader board in appearances the last few years. Cordero likely recorded a higher percentage of his team's saves than most other closers. On the basis of his usage of those two guys, I'd say Baker is at an extreme among major league managers -- not at the norm.

redsmetz
05-18-2012, 06:34 AM
I agree with this.

I wanted Chapman in the rotation this year, but injuries hurt the bullpen. So Chappy stayed in the pen and it is working out well. No reason to change it.

I've seen enough blown games in the late innings to value powerhouse relievers. He is contributing mightily and there is no reason to change it mid-season. And I don' see any reason to switch Chapman to closer, unless Marshall falters.

If Madson had been healthy, I would have a different view on Chapman as a starter this year.

I fully expect Chapman to be in the rotation next year, no matter what. They will make room in the rotation and bolster the pen to allow for that result. I'm not sure he will be as good a starter as a reliever, where he is absolutely top notch, but I think we'll find out in 2013.

I've ignored this thread until this morning since I've had a number of projects due at work, but you've laid out pretty closely what John Erardi told Ken Broo on Sunday morning on his show. Erardi went through this season's history, believed the Reds fully intended to move Chapman into a starter slot this season, but given the injuries to key relievers, the need arose to move Chapman back to the pen.

Erardi went further and said emphatically that the club should keep him in the pen for the entire season. I recall he felt it would be detrimental to Chapman to try to change that this year. But he was equally adamant that he will be in the rotation next year. Of course, he practically had to hold Ken Broo's hand and walk him through it to try to get him to understand it.

If we're intent on seeing this season be successful, I think that goal is best met (given the rash of injuries to our relief corps) by keeping Chapman where he is.

mdccclxix
05-18-2012, 07:43 AM
Yep, one more season for Leake and Bailey to determine which pitcher the Reds can afford, or would like, to keep. Both are arb eligible, not to mention Bailey for the second time.

Cueto
Latos
Chapman
Arroyo
5th

Journeyman
Villareal
Corcino

puca
05-18-2012, 07:52 AM
Rinse, lather, repeat.

Next year it will be nearly 3 years since he has regularly started. I assume the Reds are smart and in his first year as a starter they will monitor and cap his innings at about 150. So even if he starts the season in the rotation next year, blossoms into a TOR pitcher as we hope, and puts this team at the top of the Central he will probably be shut down come August or September anyhow. Might as well start him in the pen again. Oh wait, it is MUCH more difficult to transition from pen to starter in mid season than the other way around, so lets wait until next year. We've been hearing this song and dance for 2 years now.

If the Reds believe he is a potential TOR starter then they should be doing everything in their power to turn him into one.

Chip R
05-18-2012, 12:44 PM
I don't know that that's true. Do you? How?

Again, Masset has been very, very high on the leader board in appearances the last few years. Cordero likely recorded a higher percentage of his team's saves than most other closers. On the basis of his usage of those two guys, I'd say Baker is at an extreme among major league managers -- not at the norm.

By watching other teams and by common sense. Not exactly a radical notion to use your better relievers more than the ones who are not so good. Or the ones that are proven more than the ones who aren't.

lollipopcurve
05-18-2012, 01:06 PM
By watching other teams and by common sense. Not exactly a radical notion to use your better relievers more than the ones who are not so good. Or the ones that are proven more than the ones who aren't.

It's a matter of degree. And my theory is that Baker is at an extreme -- thus, the closer gets 100% of save opportunities. Thus, Masset is near the top of the leader board in appearances several years running.

Ultimately, the point is this -- Chapman can't be used like that. He does not have the bounceback-ability of a typical short reliever. Baker must adapt to that -- otherwise, he could be putting Chapman at risk. As I've said, we're talking a stallion here, not a mule.

Hoosier Red
05-18-2012, 01:34 PM
A radical idea that's been percolating in my head.

What if they determined the correct amount of innings for Aroldis for the year as a reliever and simply decided to put him on a "rotation" to hit those innings. Let's just say for instance they want him to get his arm up to 120 innings, and they wanted to use him in 2 inning outings.

They could put him in the 7th and 8th inning every 3rd day. They could build the rest of the staff around that. No matter what happens on those days, Chapman is going to pitch the 7th and the 8th, and no matter what happens in other games, he's not coming.

The downside to this would likely be a steamed starter or two who is upset that 40% of his starts end after 6 innings, and of course you lose the ability to pitch him in specific high leverage situations.

The upside though IMO would be worthwhile as it would help contain the the starters innings which will have a better impact long term anyway. You also know that the 7th and 8th innings are going to have enough high leverage moments to make it worthwhile. And you also free up any other top relievers/non closers to pitch the other two games because you know they won't be needed in the 7th or the 8th on days when he pitches.

Chip R
05-18-2012, 01:57 PM
It's a matter of degree. And my theory is that Baker is at an extreme -- thus, the closer gets 100% of save opportunities. Thus, Masset is near the top of the leader board in appearances several years running.

Ultimately, the point is this -- Chapman can't be used like that. He does not have the bounceback-ability of a typical short reliever. Baker must adapt to that -- otherwise, he could be putting Chapman at risk. As I've said, we're talking a stallion here, not a mule.

Rivera didn't get 100% of the save opportunities with the Yankees when healthy? Papelbon for the Sox? Bell for the Padres?

That's fine but if Dusty doesn't use Chapman in a high leverage situation, even if it's just for rest, he's going to be criticized. Let's say that tonight there's a situation that screams for Chapman. If Dusty doesn't use him people are going to scream and Dusty's going to be accused of hating Chapman and being an idiot. If he does use him people are going to scream that he's going to ruin Chapman like he did Wood and Prior. Last week people were anointing Ondrusek as the next closer and move Marshall to middle relief. Not so much after yesterday.

We really don't have an idea about what goes on in the clubhouse much less the bullpen. Someone may not get used in an obvious situation because he's having problems getting warmed up. These players aren't robots. You can't expect Player X to fill a certain role just because Player Y can do it. If they can, great. But managers are going to stick with players who have got the job done for them in the past until they prove that they can't do it anymore.

lollipopcurve
05-18-2012, 03:33 PM
You can't expect Player X to fill a certain role just because Player Y can do it. If they can, great.

Right. So. try guys out in different situations to find out. They're all major leaguers. You can't assume Player X can't pitch a scoreless 8th inning just because players Y and Z can. The one thing you can expect is pitchers need rest. And I'd think you'd want to protect your best pitchers by not abusing them.


These players aren't robots.

So why manage them like one? "7th inning, up a run: Must push button for pitcher X, Y or Z. Must never push button for pitcher P or Q." This, to a significant extent, is Dusty.

It's the major leagues. Any guy out there ought to be expected to throw a scoreless inning more often than not.

Rojo
05-18-2012, 06:33 PM
What if they determined the correct amount of innings for Aroldis for the year as a reliever and simply decided to put him on a "rotation" to hit those innings. Let's just say for instance they want him to get his arm up to 120 innings, and they wanted to use him in 2 inning outings.

Not a bad idea but....your micromanaging Baker and it's a bit of "neither fish nor fowl" scenario -- development vs. winning.

dougdirt
05-18-2012, 07:38 PM
Rivera didn't get 100% of the save opportunities with the Yankees when healthy? Papelbon for the Sox? Bell for the Padres?


I believe there are 5 seasons in which a closer has been on a team with 15 or more saves and had every single save for his team in history. Dusty Baker closers have three of those seasons.

So I think Dusty is a little different than other managers.

tripleaaaron
05-18-2012, 10:01 PM
Nor will he pitch 200 innings next year because the Reds have continued to mishandle him yet again this year. If the Reds had stretched him out properly last year then he could possibly have pitched 200 innings this year, and that is the point people are making. He is never going to pitch 200 innings if the Reds insist on using him as a reliever.

If you have your best pitchers throw the most innings then you will have a bigger lead in the late innings. I don't see any logical reason for having inferior pitchers throw more innings than your best pitchers.

Ask the opposing hitters if they would rather face the Missile for one inning or seven innings.

This. If we don't start stretching him out soon he will NEVER pitch 200 innings in a Reds uniform.

Sea Ray
05-21-2012, 05:00 PM
So how many days does Dusty give him off after having worked him 4 out of 5 days? I'm guessing two days. It's going to be very tempting for Dusty to overuse him since he's such a valuable toy in that pen

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 05:13 PM
He'll get tonight off. Then it'll be back to every 9th innning in a save situation.

Baseball fans should thank the great scorekeeper in the sky every day that the Reds never handled Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan's development as a pitcher.

OnBaseMachine
05-21-2012, 05:22 PM
He'll get tonight off. Then it'll be back to every 9th innning in a save situation.

Baseball fans should thank the great scorekeeper in the sky every day that the Reds never handled Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan's development as a pitcher.

Pedro, Randy Johnson, and Nolan Ryan would have been Hall of Fame relievers under the Reds watch.

traderumor
05-21-2012, 05:25 PM
He'll get tonight off. Then it'll be back to every 9th innning in a save situation.

Baseball fans should thank the great scorekeeper in the sky every day that the Reds never handled Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan's development as a pitcher.
Neither of them enjoyed success with their first team. RJ was as raw as raw could be with the Expos, wilder than anything we've seen out of Chapman. Ryan was pretty wild with the Mets also. He'd probably be doing good to make it five innings in the pitch count era, let alone throw a record number of no-hitters.

I'd love to see Chapman in the rotation ASAP. Been quite anxious to see the answer to that riddle. But I also understand the evolution of where he is today, and I think it is not completely fair to assess that the Reds have blown it on his development or in his usage to date. I'd say they got the wild pony harnessed pretty good right now. I'm quite impressed right now that the Reds development team was able to get him back on track after he lost it last year. I was very nervous going into the season after he blew up last season.

I'm still hopeful that they'll be able to slide him into the rotation very soon. But I'm sure not going to take the extreme view that it is a failed project. He is producing, after all.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 06:41 PM
I'm still hopeful that they'll be able to slide him into the rotation very soon. But I'm sure not going to take the extreme view that it is a failed project. He is producing, after all.

How many times does Lucy have to pull the football away before we catch on?

They brought Chapman up to the bullpen in 2010 to get him into the majors for the playoff push. They said the "plan" was for him to be a starter. They sent Chapman back to the bullpen in 2011 for the full year. They said the "plan" was still for him to be a starter. They've sent Chapman back to the bullpen for 2012, now using him as a closer.

At what point do we acknowledge that the "plan" is just a flat-out lie? The concern about Chapman was his command. He's answered those concerns beyond what anyone could have hoped for. It's time for him to start moving into a role where he can provide the best value to the team for the remainder of his contract.

Sea Ray
05-21-2012, 06:52 PM
How many times does Lucy have to pull the football away before we catch on?

They brought Chapman up to the bullpen in 2010 to get him into the majors for the playoff push. They said the "plan" was for him to be a starter. They sent Chapman back to the bullpen in 2011 for the full year. They said the "plan" was still for him to be a starter. They've sent Chapman back to the bullpen for 2012, now using him as a closer.

At what point do we acknowledge that the "plan" is just a flat-out lie? The concern about Chapman was his command. He's answered those concerns beyond what anyone could have hoped for. It's time for him to start moving into a role where he can provide the best value to the team for the remainder of his contract.

I think it's only fair to look at the Madson injury and how that caused them to scramble here. Maybe Aroldis would still be in the bullpen but I think had Madson stayed healthy Aroldis would be starting

OnBaseMachine
05-21-2012, 07:06 PM
One of the few times I actually agree with Paul Daugherty.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120520/COL03/305200075/Doc-Chapman-should-starting?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|

edabbs44
05-21-2012, 07:27 PM
Epstein and Papelbon. Daniels and Feliz. Epstein and Bard.

Not like there isn't any precedent.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 07:30 PM
I think it's only fair to look at the Madson injury and how that caused them to scramble here. Maybe Aroldis would still be in the bullpen but I think had Madson stayed healthy Aroldis would be starting

It would've been absurd to suggest Johnny Cueto replace Madson as closer. Suggesting Chapman forgo starting to do the same is equally absurd, IMO.

Small market teams like the Reds cannot afford to get less than maximum value out of players they sign. The Red Sox can afford to send a top prospect out to the bullpen as they did with Papelbon. The wallet can open up and buy another starter or high-value arm. When the Reds get a high value arm, it needs to be starting if at all possible.

REDREAD
05-22-2012, 05:42 PM
At what point do we acknowledge that the "plan" is just a flat-out lie? The concern about Chapman was his command. He's answered those concerns beyond what anyone could have hoped for. It's time for him to start moving into a role where he can provide the best value to the team for the remainder of his contract.

Woah .. calling it a "lie" is a bit harsh.

Chapman was starting in spring training. Dusty said he was arguably the best starter in the spring. Then the team lost 3 key relievers.. Something had to be done.. Would you rather have Bailey or Leake in the bullpen now?

The Reds are getting INCREDIBLE value out of Chapman.. Remember, his contract averages out to roughly the same amount per year as Marshall's deal.. It's not as if we are paying him 15 million/year to pitch out of the pen.

The bullpen is what has kept us in the division race this year. Chapman has been a huge part of that.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 05:44 PM
It would've been absurd to suggest Johnny Cueto replace Madson as closer. Suggesting Chapman forgo starting to do the same is equally absurd, IMO.

Small market teams like the Reds cannot afford to get less than maximum value out of players they sign. The Red Sox can afford to send a top prospect out to the bullpen as they did with Papelbon. The wallet can open up and buy another starter or high-value arm. When the Reds get a high value arm, it needs to be starting if at all possible.Yet the Red Sox have rotation problems and have not fixed in two seasons running.

Always Red
05-22-2012, 05:47 PM
Woah .. calling it a "lie" is a bit harsh.

Chapman was starting in spring training. Dusty said he was arguably the best starter in the spring. Then the team lost 3 key relievers.. Something had to be done.. Would you rather have Bailey or Leake in the bullpen now?

The Reds are getting INCREDIBLE value out of Chapman.. Remember, his contract averages out to roughly the same amount per year as Marshall's deal.. It's not as if we are paying him 15 million/year to pitch out of the pen.

The bullpen is what has kept us in the division race this year. Chapman has been a huge part of that.

well said :thumbup:

REDREAD
05-22-2012, 05:47 PM
Small market teams like the Reds cannot afford to get less than maximum value out of players they sign. The Red Sox can afford to send a top prospect out to the bullpen as they did with Papelbon. The wallet can open up and buy another starter or high-value arm. When the Reds get a high value arm, it needs to be starting if at all possible.

Considering the makeup of the Reds' pitching staff, Chapman in the bullpen is getting maximum value out of him right now.

The Reds didn't do it with money, but they went out and got Latos. That gave them the luxury of a deep staff where they weren't forced to start Chapman.
If Josh Fogg was in the rotation now, you'd have a point.

We've already seen last year that Leake does not pitch well out of the pen.
Homer apparently takes too long to warm up. Leake and Homer in the rotation and Chapman in the pen does make best use of the Reds resources. If Madson, Bray, and Masset weren't hurt, then Chapman in the rotation would make more sense.

Patrick Bateman
05-22-2012, 06:11 PM
It would've been absurd to suggest Johnny Cueto replace Madson as closer. Suggesting Chapman forgo starting to do the same is equally absurd, IMO.

Small market teams like the Reds cannot afford to get less than maximum value out of players they sign. The Red Sox can afford to send a top prospect out to the bullpen as they did with Papelbon. The wallet can open up and buy another starter or high-value arm. When the Reds get a high value arm, it needs to be starting if at all possible.

You dont'see the difference between moving an already proven, above major league starter who has never pitched in the bullpen, at any level before, versus, a guy who has never started a major league game, and has proven himself to be a commodity in the bullpen?

I'm on the fence of the argument myself, but the comparison to Cueto is not an apt one, IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
05-22-2012, 06:31 PM
From ESPN....


Five mind-boggling stats at the quarter pole

1. Aroldis Chapman has faced 84 hitters -- and struck out 39 of them.

Caveat Emperor
05-22-2012, 07:05 PM
You dont'see the difference between moving an already proven, above major league starter who has never pitched in the bullpen, at any level before, versus, a guy who has never started a major league game, and has proven himself to be a commodity in the bullpen?

I'm on the fence of the argument myself, but the comparison to Cueto is not an apt one, IMO.

Johnny Cueto provides maximum value as a starter. Asking him to do anything else is silly because his value to the team can only decrease in a different role.

The goal is to get Aroldis Chapman providing maximum value to the team as well. His theoretical maximum value comes from being a starter. To not even give him a chance to start is just absurd.

Like I said in another thread -- even Mariano Rivera got a chance to start before he was sent to the bullpen.

Caveat Emperor
05-22-2012, 07:14 PM
Chapman was starting in spring training. Dusty said he was arguably the best starter in the spring. Then the team lost 3 key relievers.. Something had to be done.. Would you rather have Bailey or Leake in the bullpen now?

The Reds are getting INCREDIBLE value out of Chapman.. Remember, his contract averages out to roughly the same amount per year as Marshall's deal.. It's not as if we are paying him 15 million/year to pitch out of the pen.

The bullpen is what has kept us in the division race this year. Chapman has been a huge part of that.

1. The Reds added two arms who have pitched quality baseball -- JJ Hoover and Alfredo Simon -- for spare parts and cash. Bullpen arms are among the easiest parts to acquire for a team.

2. Your best arms that can start should start. Period. The Cardinals had Adam Wainwright in the bullpen, but they got him out as quickly as possible because he was one of their best arms. If there's a logjam in the rotation, you trade someone to open a spot or you send someone down with options in order to get your 5 best arms in the rotation.

3. Aroldis Chapman is on pace to throw 87 innings this year. Even on an innings-count, he could've been expected to throw between 150-160 innings as a starter this year. They're getting roughly 50% of the production they could be getting out of Chapman.

Congrats. You've got one of the most electric arms in baseball and you're using him like he's Dan Wheeler instead of Randy Johnson. If that makes you happy, roll with it.

Patrick Bateman
05-22-2012, 07:26 PM
Johnny Cueto provides maximum value as a starter. Asking him to do anything else is silly because his value to the team can only decrease in a different role.

The goal is to get Aroldis Chapman providing maximum value to the team as well. His theoretical maximum value comes from being a starter. To not even give him a chance to start is just absurd.

Like I said in another thread -- even Mariano Rivera got a chance to start before he was sent to the bullpen.

Right... but it's theoretical value... Cueto as a starter is not theoretical. They are completley different players at this point in their career.

I want the Reds to give Chapman a chance as starter at some point, but I'm just saying, it's not a slam dunk he will succeed, and that at least needs to be recognized.

757690
05-22-2012, 07:45 PM
The Cardinals made Wainright their closer when Isringhausen got hurt. They won the World Series that year. Smoltz was moved from the rotation to closer by the Braves. Cubs made Dempster their closer for a few years before switching him back to starter. Astros are using Brett Myers as their closer. It's a very long list of starters turned closers when team needed team needed them to.

I want Chapman starting too, but making him the closer is a decent alternative, and not a waste and not without strong precedent.

mth123
05-22-2012, 08:18 PM
1. The Reds added two arms who have pitched quality baseball -- JJ Hoover and Alfredo Simon -- for spare parts and cash. Bullpen arms are among the easiest parts to acquire for a team.

2. Your best arms that can start should start. Period. The Cardinals had Adam Wainwright in the bullpen, but they got him out as quickly as possible because he was one of their best arms. If there's a logjam in the rotation, you trade someone to open a spot or you send someone down with options in order to get your 5 best arms in the rotation.

3. Aroldis Chapman is on pace to throw 87 innings this year. Even on an innings-count, he could've been expected to throw between 150-160 innings as a starter this year. They're getting roughly 50% of the production they could be getting out of Chapman.

Congrats. You've got one of the most electric arms in baseball and you're using him like he's Dan Wheeler instead of Randy Johnson. If that makes you happy, roll with it.

So are you Chapman's agent? Moving him to the Rotation may be getting the most value from him and be the best for his career, but it may not be the best way for the Reds to get the most value overall.

Say Chapman's value as a shut down, snuff the rally reliever is a "7" and, if all goes right, his value as a starter is a 10. Its not as simple as moving him into the rotation and improving by 3. What if Leake or Bailey provides as 6 in the rotation and would only be worth 1 in the pen? The overall effect on the team would be a negative. I'm also in the group that thinks Chapman's value in the rotation is no slam dunk. He may be a 7 or 8 in the pen and only a 4 as a starter. Unless there is an actual hole to fill in the rotation, I don't think making my biggest strength into weakness on a hope that all goes right with the move is a good idea.