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TeamBoone
05-20-2012, 12:48 AM
Tonight on Sports Wrap (local show), they said Dusty is considering Aroldis for closer. We'll see if it happens.

puca
05-20-2012, 09:32 AM
Tonight on Sports Wrap (local show), they said Dusty is considering Aroldis for closer. We'll see if it happens.

I sure hope not.

Not that I think Chapman would be a bad closer. I just think that if Dusty uses Chapman as a true closer he will be less valuable than as a 7th-8th inning guy and is in more danger of pitching 3 or more days in a row. I don't want to see Chapman pitching in the 9th inning of games where the Reds are up by 3 runs just because he is the closer.

Degenerate39
05-20-2012, 09:42 AM
I wouldn't mind seeing him go 2 or 3 innings as closer like Weathers use to. Gets him stretched out a little for the rotation if it's even a possibility.

The Operator
05-20-2012, 09:46 AM
If so, we can forget any chance of him becoming a starter this year. Sigh.

Why do we have to have one designated "closer"? The 1999 Reds had one of the best bullpens you could ask for and featured Williamson with 19 saves and Graves with 27 saves. And IIRC, Scott Sullivan may have saved 3 or 4 games as well.

BCubb2003
05-20-2012, 09:52 AM
If so, we can forget any chance of him becoming a starter this year. Sigh.

Why do we have to have one designated "closer"? The 1999 Reds had one of the best bullpens you could ask for and featured Williamson with 19 saves and Graves with 27 saves. And IIRC, Scott Sullivan may have saved 3 or 4 games as well.

It's an interesting point. Managers are obsessed with matchups everywhere else in the game. Why not for closing?

steig
05-20-2012, 10:09 AM
I think Chapman will be a great starter and could really make the Reds rotation great. However, they do need to watch his inning this year if he is going to start so I'm ok with him in the bullpen at this point. I think closing would be fine for part of most of this year if they use him like a young Mariano Riveria. Allow him to do 2 inning saves with the occasional 3 inning save to help make the stretching out process to a starter easier.

JaxRed
05-20-2012, 10:48 AM
But Dusty won't do that. Closers pitch the 9th. Period. Ondrusek should be tried first for closer with Hoover filling Ondrusek's role. Or vice versa.

Start moving Chapman to the rotation now.

Tommyjohn25
05-20-2012, 11:00 AM
But Dusty won't do that. Closers pitch the 9th. Period. Ondrusek should be tried first for closer with Hoover filling Ondrusek's role. Or vice versa.

Start moving Chapman to the rotation now.

The fact that Chapman just isn't going into the rotation this year has been mercilessly beaten into me by the Reds front office to the point that I think I've actually gone through the 5 stages of grief.

You'll be best served to just go ahead and skip to acceptance, like I have. Save yourself.

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 11:05 AM
But Dusty won't do that. Closers pitch the 9th. Period. Ondrusek should be tried first for closer with Hoover filling Ondrusek's role. Or vice versa.

Start moving Chapman to the rotation now.

Personally, I wait until one of Masset or Bray get back before I even think about moving Aroldis out of the pen. As much as I hate it, he's needed. But I do hope he doesn't get moved to closer because I firmly believe that once he does...he'll get locked into that role full-time and we'll never see him start. I'd love to be wrong though.

RedsManRick
05-20-2012, 11:06 AM
If Chapman becomes the closer, I don't think he ever starts a game for the Reds. Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint. He's been incredibly unlucky with guys simply hitting the ball where they ain't. You don't have a 7.0 K/BB ratio without being an excellent pitcher.

Of course, if they move him to setup and he simply keeps doing what he's done but gets the results he should, everybody will talk about how he just didn't have a "closer's mentality" or how closers need to be a power pitcher.

Tommyjohn25
05-20-2012, 11:07 AM
If Chapman becomes the closer, I don't think he ever starts a game for the Reds. Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint. He's been incredibly unlucky with guys simply hitting the ball where they ain't. You don't have a 7.0 K/BB ratio without being an excellent pitcher.

This is what keeps me awake at night in a cold sweat.

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 11:08 AM
If Chapman becomes the closer, I don't think he ever starts a game for the Reds. Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint. He's been incredibly unlucky with guys simply hitting the ball where they ain't. You don't have a 7.0 K/BB ratio without being an excellent pitcher.

Of course, if they move him to setup and he simply keeps doing what he's done but gets the results he should, everybody will talk about how he just didn't have a "closer's mentality" or how closers need to be a power pitcher.

This is what I've been saying. Marshall's going to be fine. His numbers (outside of ERA) are flat out SOLID.

wheels
05-20-2012, 11:08 AM
If Chapman becomes the closer, I don't think he ever starts a game for the Reds. Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint. He's been incredibly unlucky with guys simply hitting the ball where they ain't. You don't have a 7.0 K/BB ratio without being an excellent pitcher.

Of course, if they move him to setup and he simply keeps doing what he's done but gets the results he should, everybody will talk about how he just didn't have a "closer's mentality" or how closers need to be a power pitcher.

That's what I was thinking when I heard Dusty said that.

They need to stay the course with Marshall.

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 11:10 AM
That's what I was thinking when I heard Dusty said that.

They need to stay the course with Marshall.

The good thing is that this is what Dusty normally does....stay the course and give players a rather long leash. The only reason I worry is that he's made it abundantly clear over the past couple of seasons that he loves the idea of Aroldis in the pen and closing.

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 11:14 AM
Why do we have to have one designated "closer"? .

There have been 5 seasons in the history of baseball where one closer scored every save for a team with at least 15 saves. Dusty Baker managed three of those teams. His closer pitches the last inning with a lead, unless he isn't allowed to by rule or ineffectiveness after already trying him.

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 11:22 AM
John Fay just tweeted that Chapman will close, but not today because he has pitched 3 of 4.

elfmanvt07
05-20-2012, 11:24 AM
The following tweet.


Baker wants to avoid bullpen-by-committee. "Most good teams don't (use one)." But Chapman is limited as far as consecutive days.

reds1869
05-20-2012, 11:26 AM
If the front office believes Chapman can successfully pull a Neftali Feliz and move from closer to starter next year, then I am perfectly fine with the move. I love Marshall in the setup role and would love for him to pitch there (though the idea that he can't close is silly).

elfmanvt07
05-20-2012, 11:29 AM
Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint.

That's a mindblowing stat. My pause, however, emanates from the NATURE of those hit balls. Not a lot of dribblers sneaking through.

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 11:32 AM
John Fay just tweeted that Chapman will close, but not today because he has pitched 3 of 4.

And thus endeth the dream of a rotation headed by Chapman. :(

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 11:34 AM
Chapman will close. But not today. He's gone 3 of 4. Will go with matchups today. Ondrusek vs. RHs, Marshall vs. LHs. #reds ~Fayl

elfmanvt07
05-20-2012, 11:50 AM
Dusty Baker made it sound like Aroldis Chapman is the new closer. Sean Marshall will go into a set-up role. But if the Reds have a lead in the ninth today, it won’t be Chapman closing.

Who will it be?

“I don’t know,” Baker said. “It depends. If it’s predominantly left-handed, it will be Marshall. I’ve got to stay away from Chapman. He’s gone three out of four days. (Jose) Arredondo is four of five. It depends on where we are in their lineup.”

Logan Ondrusek will likely close if Reds are facing mostly right-handers in the ninth.

“Today maybe,” Baker said. “The key word is today.”

Baker wants to have one guy closing.

“Most good teams do,” he said. “That bullpen-by-committee, I haven’t seen it work too much. It makes my job harder. It makes their job harder. Everybody likes continuity as far as work.

“Chapman is my No. 1 candidate. But he’s not as good the second day. Last year, he wasn’t nearly as good the third day. We may have to give him two days, go back to someone else two days. We’ve got to figure this out.”

Chapman isn’t quite as good on the second day of pitching back-to-back, but he’s still pretty good.

He pitched on consecutive days 11 times. Hitters hit .179 off Chapman last year when he was working on back-to-back days. They hit .137 when he had at least a day of rest. Chapman’s tends to struggle with his control on back-to-back days. He walked 10 of 50 batters faced on no days rest. He walked 10 of 67 batters faced on one day of rest.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/05/20/closer-by-committee-for-today-at-least/

The Operator
05-20-2012, 11:55 AM
Why am I even surprised?

I wouldn't be so upset if I thought this was just for this season, and he'd pull a Neftali Feliz and head to the rotation next year. But this has career move written all over it, Dusty has been in love with having Chappy out of the bullpen for a long time now. Ugh.

757690
05-20-2012, 12:06 PM
“Most good teams do,” he said. “That bullpen-by-committee, I haven’t seen it work too much. It makes my job harder. It makes their job harder. Everybody likes continuity as far as work.

It might make Baker's job harder, because he would actually have to look at matchups, game situations, etc to determine who would best to use in each situation. With established roles, Baker can just trot out the same guys everytime, and if they fail, he can blame them. "I put the right guy out there, he just didn't do his job."

With bullpen by committee, Baker becomes more responsible for the outcome, easier to second guess him. I think that's the real reason why he doesn't like a bullpen by committee.

757690
05-20-2012, 12:08 PM
Why am I even surprised?

I wouldn't be so upset if I thought this was just for this season, and he'd pull a Neftali Feliz and head to the rotation next year. But this has career move written all over it, Dusty has been in love with having Chappy out of the bullpen for a long time now. Ugh.

That won't be Baker's decision next season. it really wasn't even his decision this seaon. Injuries made this decision.

Superdude
05-20-2012, 12:09 PM
What a knee jerk move. Marshall throws 14 innings with an incredibly high BABIP and we're ready to move on? And on top of that, this organization once again shows absolutely no indication of Chapman ever being given a fair shake as a starter. We took a 22 year old flame throwing starter, gave him two months in the rotation at AAA, and then scrapped the idea? Ugh

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 12:16 PM
What a knee jerk move. Marshall throws 14 innings with an incredibly high BABIP and we're ready to move on? And on top of that, this organization once again shows absolutely no indication of Chapman ever being given a fair shake as a starter. We took a 22 year old flame throwing starter, gave him two months in the rotation at AAA, and then scrapped the idea? Ugh

Agree completely. I also agree with The Operator in that this smells of permanent closer. And that smell STINKS.

The Operator
05-20-2012, 12:19 PM
That won't be Baker's decision next season. it really wasn't even his decision this seaon. Injuries made this decision.I certainly hope you're right.

puca
05-20-2012, 12:25 PM
Only 3 times this year has our closer been used in a situation when the game was within 1 run (Marshall's game log is below). Seriously Chapman in his current role has pitched way more important innings than our closer. I'd still rather he was in the rotation (or being groomed for it in case we make it to postseason), but I absolutely hate the idea of him as a prototypical closer.

4/5 9th inning leading 4-0
4/10 9th inning trailing 1-3 loss
4/13 13th inning tied 1-1 (LP)
4/15 9th inning leading 8-5 (SV)
4/19 9th inning leading 6-3 (SV)
4/22 9th inning leading 4-2 (SV)
4/25 9th inning leading 4-2 (SV)
4/26 9th inning leading 5-3 (BS/L)
4/29 9th inning leading 6-5 (Sv)
5/3 9th inning trailing 0-3
5/7 9th inning leading 6-1
5/9 9th inning leading 2-0 (pulled for Ondrusek after 2/3)
5/13 9th inning trailing 5-6 (W)
5/14 9th inning leading 3-1 (SV)
5/16 9th inning leading 9-6 (SV)
5/19 9th inning leading 6-3 (pulled for Arredondo after 1/3)

The Operator
05-20-2012, 12:29 PM
I agree with 757690 in that this reeks of Dusty wanting his job to be as simple as possible.

With the same closer every day, there's no thought put into matchups, anything like that. And there's also no second-guessing after a blown save. "Well, the closer was in there. What else could I have done? He's the closer, after all!"

The Reds have really, really screwed up the handling of his development to this point. I'm not saying they'll never get it right, but it's sure looking less and less likely with each passing day. Especially now.

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 12:35 PM
I've been saying for a while that Marshall didn't look like he had the mentality or pure stuff (read: blow-away fastball) to pitch the 9th effectively.

But, honestly, if the team can't see that Chapman needs to be transition to the rotation right now, I don't know what to say. His talent is 100% wasted pitching in the bullpen.

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 12:38 PM
I agree with 757690 in that this reeks of Dusty wanting his job to be as simple as possible.

This reeks of Baker wanting his job.

He's not personally impacted by Aroldis Chapman being ready to start a full year in 2013 unless his contract gets renewed.

puca
05-20-2012, 12:42 PM
Only 3 times this year has our closer been used in a situation when the game was within 1 run (Marshall's game log is below). Seriously Chapman in his current role has pitched way more important innings than our closer. I'd still rather he was in the rotation (or being groomed for it in case we make it to postseason), but I absolutely hate the idea of him as a prototypical closer.

4/5 9th inning leading 4-0
4/10 9th inning trailing 1-3 loss
4/13 13th inning tied 1-1 (LP)
4/15 9th inning leading 8-5 (SV)
4/19 9th inning leading 6-3 (SV)
4/22 9th inning leading 4-2 (SV)
4/25 9th inning leading 4-2 (SV)
4/26 9th inning leading 5-3 (BS/L)
4/29 9th inning leading 6-5 (Sv)
5/3 9th inning trailing 0-3
5/7 9th inning leading 6-1
5/9 9th inning leading 2-0 (pulled for Ondrusek after 2/3)
5/13 9th inning trailing 5-6 (W)
5/14 9th inning leading 3-1 (SV)
5/16 9th inning leading 9-6 (SV)
5/19 9th inning leading 6-3 (pulled for Arredondo after 1/3)

To take this further. 7 times Chapman has entered when the score was within a run compared to 3 times for our closer.

BCubb2003
05-20-2012, 12:50 PM
The YES network text poll is on where Chapman can best help the Reds.

757690
05-20-2012, 12:58 PM
If Chapman becomes the closer, I don't think he ever starts a game for the Reds. Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint. He's been incredibly unlucky with guys simply hitting the ball where they ain't. You don't have a 7.0 K/BB ratio without being an excellent pitcher.

Of course, if they move him to setup and he simply keeps doing what he's done but gets the results he should, everybody will talk about how he just didn't have a "closer's mentality" or how closers need to be a power pitcher.

First, just watching Marshall this season eliminates any discussion of his BABIP being a product of "luck." He simply has pitched poorly, getting hit hard on numerous mistake pitches. If he were to continue what he is doing, he will have the same results, very bad ones.

Second, the main reason why BABIP tends to gravitate towards a certain level, is that pitchers go through rough patches throughout the season, where they lose control of a pitch, a release point, etc. Eventually, the good pitchers that last, regain their control and get back on track. With starter, this isn't a big deal, as it takes a start or two usually for them to find their grove. However, that's about 10-15 appearances for a closer. The Reds can't afford to let Marshall find his grove in 10-15 9th innings. Let him find it in less crucial innings.

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 01:23 PM
Marshall is getting a ton of ground balls, they're simply finding holes. He's also missing a ton of bats without walking guys.

I say stick with Marshall.

TeamBoone
05-20-2012, 01:32 PM
Why do we have to have one designated "closer"?

I couldn't agree more, but Dusty sure seems determined to make one out of Marshall, whom IMHO, stinks in that role. There have been several instances when he could have left the previous pitcher in because he was doing well. But he always chooses to put Randall in instead.

redsfandan
05-20-2012, 01:39 PM
First, just watching Marshall this season eliminates any discussion of his BABIP being a product of "luck." He simply has pitched poorly, getting hit hard on numerous mistake pitches. If he were to continue what he is doing, he will have the same results, very bad ones.

Second, the main reason why BABIP tends to gravitate towards a certain level, is that pitchers go through rough patches throughout the season, where they lose control of a pitch, a release point, etc. Eventually, the good pitchers that last, regain their control and get back on track. With starter, this isn't a big deal, as it takes a start or two usually for them to find their grove. However, that's about 10-15 appearances for a closer. The Reds can't afford to let Marshall find his grove in 10-15 9th innings. Let him find it in less crucial innings.

So the 8th inning is less crucial?

Whether you think Marshall should remain the closer or not is one thing but making Chapman the closer, when he's never been given a serious chance as a starter, is not the right move.

TeamBoone
05-20-2012, 01:41 PM
And thus endeth the dream of a rotation headed by Chapman. :(

No, I don't think so. Remember, we have a real closer on the DL, don't we?

puca
05-20-2012, 01:44 PM
No, I don't so. Remember, we have a real closer on the DL.

Next time Madson throws a pitch it won't be for the Reds (probably).

_Sir_Charles_
05-20-2012, 02:06 PM
Puca's right. I don't think there's any chance we'll see Madson throw for the Reds.

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 02:42 PM
That's a mindblowing stat. My pause, however, emanates from the NATURE of those hit balls. Not a lot of dribblers sneaking through.

Sean Marshall's BABIP on groundballs is .480. The National League BABIP on groundballs is .228.

757690
05-20-2012, 02:51 PM
Not all ground balls are equal. Marshall has been giving up some hard hit grounders lately.

After watching him pitch, can you honestly say that Marshall has just been unlucky?

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 02:59 PM
Not all ground balls are equal. Marshall has been giving up some hard hit grounders lately.

After watching him pitch, can you honestly say that Marshall has just been unlucky?
Just unlucky, of course not. Plenty of unlucky still? Absolutely.

He has given up hits on groundballs more than twice as often as the league average. That is absolutely bad luck.

gilpdawg
05-20-2012, 03:30 PM
I've been saying for a while that Marshall didn't look like he had the mentality or pure stuff (read: blow-away fastball) to pitch the 9th effectively.

But, honestly, if the team can't see that Chapman needs to be transition to the rotation right now, I don't know what to say. His talent is 100% wasted pitching in the bullpen.

I just don't buy that. The hitters in the ninth are the same hitters as they are in innings 1-8. If someone can't pitch the ninth it's mental, and that's correctable. If you can pitch in inning 7 or 8 you can pitch in inning 9. Any other result and you are beating yourself.

gilpdawg
05-20-2012, 03:35 PM
The Reds can't afford to let Marshall find his grove in 10-15 9th innings. Let him find it in less crucial innings.

That would make sense if Chapman hadn't been in higher leverage spots than Marshall has so far. As is, you are putting the guy who is struggling into a higher leverage spot. It's only a "demotion" by title. This hurts the team, IMO.

757690
05-20-2012, 03:40 PM
Just unlucky, of course not. Plenty of unlucky still? Absolutely.

He has given up hits on groundballs more than twice as often as the league average. That is absolutely bad luck.

Again, ignore the numbers, the sample size is way to small to use them accurately. Based on what you have seen of Marshall so far this season, when he has failed, was it because of luck or because he wasn't pitching well?

For me, the answer is easy.

757690
05-20-2012, 03:42 PM
That would make sense if Chapman hadn't been in higher leverage spots than Marshall has so far. As is, you are putting the guy who is struggling into a higher leverage spot. It's only a "demotion" by title. This hurts the team, IMO.

I agree. I wasn't advocating using Marshall in Chapman's role. However, I feel that Baker will do just that.

Edit: Which is what he is doing right now, lol

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2012, 03:42 PM
What a shame. The Reds signed one of the most talented pitchers in history and have completely wasted his talent, and it appears they will continue doing so. It's going to be painful to watch Chapman leave via free agency and become a dominant starter elsewhere.

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 03:43 PM
Regardless, the Sean Marshall era as closer appears to be over. Marshall coming in for the 8th.

757690
05-20-2012, 03:49 PM
What a shame. The Reds signed one of the most talented pitchers in history and have completely wasted his talent, and it appears they will continue doing so. It's going to be painful to watch Chapman leave via free agency and become a dominant starter elsewhere.

Again, that won't happen until 2017!

redsfandan
05-20-2012, 03:52 PM
I just don't buy that. The hitters in the ninth are the same hitters as they are in innings 1-8. If someone can't pitch the ninth it's mental, and that's correctable. If you can pitch in inning 7 or 8 you can pitch in inning 9. Any other result and you are beating yourself.
The mental stuff isn't ALWAYS correctable. Sometimes a guy just can't handle the opportunity given him.

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 03:59 PM
Again, ignore the numbers, the sample size is way to small to use them accurately. Based on what you have seen of Marshall so far this season, when he has failed, was it because of luck or because he wasn't pitching well?

For me, the answer is easy.

While I don't have access to every plate appearances against him this year, it was because of a little bit of both from what I can remember.

gilpdawg
05-20-2012, 04:14 PM
Edit-Oops, thought this was the game thread lol.

gilpdawg
05-20-2012, 04:17 PM
Edit-ditto. Sorry about that folks.

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 04:18 PM
That stop by Valdez was Rolen-esque.

The throw was not, however.

TeamBoone
05-20-2012, 04:23 PM
What a shame. The Reds signed one of the most talented pitchers in history and have completely wasted his talent, and it appears they will continue doing so. It's going to be painful to watch Chapman leave via free agency and become a dominant starter elsewhere.

That's a huge assumption.

Kc61
05-20-2012, 04:23 PM
What a shame. The Reds signed one of the most talented pitchers in history and have completely wasted his talent, and it appears they will continue doing so. It's going to be painful to watch Chapman leave via free agency and become a dominant starter elsewhere.

I understand your frustration.

But they have completely wasted Chapman's talent?

Completely?

reds44
05-20-2012, 04:25 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter next year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

Superdude
05-20-2012, 04:28 PM
I understand your frustration.

But they have completely wasted Chapman's talent?

Completely?

Obviously not completely. Substantially limited?

reds1869
05-20-2012, 04:28 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter enxt year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

:beerme:

Couldn't agree more. Chapman is in the pen out of necessity right now. He'll start in 2013 barring catastrophe.

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2012, 04:50 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter next year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

Yeah, just like he was going to be a starter in 2011. And in 2012. Moving Chapman to the closer role ends the hope of him moving to the rotation, IMO. As long as Dusty is the manager, anyway.

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2012, 04:52 PM
Saw a great quote on twitter regarding the Reds usage of Chapman. This cracked me up.

Walt Jocketty hired Kate Upton to model skiwear.

https://twitter.com/#!/Toirtap

dougdirt
05-20-2012, 05:04 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter next year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

Didn't we say that about this year too?

redsfandan
05-20-2012, 05:05 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter next year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

For what? Half the year? If they had handled him properly they would've been able to count on him for a FULL years worth of starts next year. There's no way that's going to happen now.

The Reds are making a mistake by not getting maximum value out of an elite arm. Even IF they get smart and let him get some starts by the time he can start for a full season free agency won't be far away.

puca
05-20-2012, 05:12 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter next year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

And so much for not being overused. Isn't that 4 appearances in 5 days? I thought before the game Dusty said he wasn't available, and ultimately he came in to pitch with a 3 run lead. Now I realize he warmed up while it was still a 1 run lead, but what does not available mean in Dusty's dictionary.

What happens when tomorrow's game is tied or the Reds have a 1 run lead going into the 9th? Do you think Dusty will use anyone else in that role now that Chapman has been annointed closer?

I fear for his health and I fear that he will now be pigeon-holed into the closer's role. How is the Reds bullpen going to be stronger going into next year? Will Bray be healthy? Madson will be gone. Do you think the Reds will go out and sign another closer? Where will the money come from?

Meanwhile he could possibly be the type of #1 starter that turned this into a truly dominant rotation, but I don't think we will ever find out.

Superdude
05-20-2012, 05:23 PM
For what? Half the year? If they had handled him properly they would've been able to count on him for a FULL years worth of starts next year. There's no way that's going to happen now.

The Reds are making a mistake by not getting maximum value out of an elite arm. Even IF they get smart and let him get some starts by the time he can start for a full season free agency won't be far away.

And maybe it's just me, but Chapman seems to be falling back heavier on his fastball lately. 100% heat in that game today. There's more to starting than just stretching him out. Even if he goes back to the rotation next season, he'll be starting from scratch as a guy who has done practically nothing but air out fastballs for three years. I really think they're crossing the point of no return with this move IMO.

That's all. I feel like I've beaten this dead horse out of frustration long enough. Go Reds! :thumbup:

puca
05-20-2012, 05:34 PM
And maybe it's just me, but Chapman seems to be falling back heavier on his fastball lately. 100% heat in that game today. There's more to starting than just stretching him out. Even if he goes back to the rotation next season, he'll be starting from scratch as a guy who has done practically nothing but air out fastballs for three years. I really think they're crossing the point of no return with this move IMO.

That's all. I feel like I've beaten this dead horse out of frustration long enough. Go Reds! :thumbup:

I agree. And maybe the Reds have determined he is not going to ever develop the secondary pitches to be a starter. If that is the case then fine. But if they still think he could be a TOR starter then they are doing Chapman and themselves a great disservice.

edabbs44
05-20-2012, 05:41 PM
So much for not being able to pitch on back to back days.

And people need to relax about wasting his talent. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. He'll be a starter next year.

Enjoy watching him pitch.

Agree, the goal is to have the better team, not the best fantasy stats. And there is no guarantee that he will be the same guy as a starter.

reds44
05-20-2012, 05:43 PM
Didn't we say that about this year too?
I don't think anybody expected 3 of the teams top 4 relievers to be out.

Raisor
05-20-2012, 06:06 PM
Agree, the goal is to have the better team, not the best fantasy stats. And there is no guarantee that he will be the same guy as a starter.

So you want a guarentee before he becomes a starter?

Raisor
05-20-2012, 06:08 PM
I don't think anybody expected 3 of the teams top 4 relievers to be out.

And if it happens again next year?

edabbs44
05-20-2012, 06:18 PM
So you want a guarentee before he becomes a starter?

Nope. There are no guarantees.

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 06:21 PM
There will always be excuses to provide cover for the easy decision.

Leaving Chapman in the bullpen is the easy, lazy decision.

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 06:22 PM
Agree, the goal is to have the better team, not the best fantasy stats. And there is no guarantee that he will be the same guy as a starter.

I know one thing about the "best" team -- it sure as hell doesn't have Mike Leake & Homer Bailey both in the rotation.

edabbs44
05-20-2012, 06:38 PM
I know one thing about the "best" team -- it sure as hell doesn't have Mike Leake & Homer Bailey both in the rotation.

Homer is 6/8 in quality starts this year and just won at Atlanta and at NYY this week. I think he is doing ok.

SirFelixCat
05-20-2012, 07:10 PM
I know one thing about the "best" team -- it sure as hell doesn't have Mike Leake & Homer Bailey both in the rotation.

I get that Leake's performance this year warrants the comment, but wtf has Bailey done, save for a bad first inning of his first start of the season?

TeamBoone
05-20-2012, 07:25 PM
And so much for not being overused. Isn't that 4 appearances in 5 days? I thought before the game Dusty said he wasn't available, and ultimately he came in to pitch with a 3 run lead. Now I realize he warmed up while it was still a 1 run lead, but what does not available mean in Dusty's dictionary.

You think he should pitch in the rotation and yet you feel that one inning a day is too much? At one inning a day, he should be able to pitch every day of the week.

puca
05-20-2012, 08:48 PM
You think he should pitch in the rotation and yet you feel that one inning a day is too much? At one inning a day, he should be able to pitch every day of the week.

I assume you don't really believe that.

WMR
05-20-2012, 09:10 PM
I wonder if Dusty even knows what BABIP means.........

When is someone going to save us from The Dusty?

WMR
05-20-2012, 09:11 PM
At one inning a day, he should be able to pitch every day of the week.

Uhhhhh.... Wut?

Orenda
05-20-2012, 09:32 PM
Didn't everybody use to complain about what a waste it was to limit the best relievers usage strictly for save situations? That 16 k/9 Chapman has going is a nice option to have at your disposal with a runner on 3rd and 1 out in a close game.

mdccclxix
05-20-2012, 09:44 PM
How is this Dusty's fault? Ostensibly his 3 best non-Chapman relievers go down, so what is he supposed to do?

Chapman is nailing down the 9th. He may not blow a save all year if he pitches like he is. Meanwhile, Marshall can go back to the role that got him the best WAR for relievers over the last two seasons - 8th inning matchups.

I want Chapman to start as well, but there are a lot of team factors in play. Everyone is getting their shot to perform in the roles they were given in ST. Leake and Bailey will have their chances to earn their roles. If they weren't would you really think Leake would learn anything in AAA? Would Bailey bring anything in a trade in May?

The rotation is set. Call it lazy, or call it managing a ball team.

Don't forget, the article today states that Dusty wants Chapman to start, it's just not possible this year. Just be thankful that we have the best bullpen in the NL, and it just got better.

And from what it sounds like, Marshal may even prefer the 8th. He's signed for 4 years, so it's not like he wants to own the 9th for his next contract.

But by all means slam Dusty for things he hasn't even done yet, and for things he couldn't really avoid, and for trying to win this year and not next.

The Operator
05-20-2012, 10:24 PM
Agree, the goal is to have the better team, not the best fantasy stats. And there is no guarantee that he will be the same guy as a starter.Well, he probably won't K 17 guys per 9 or keep posting a 0.00 ERA. But, if he can even come close to resembling the guy we've been seeing so far this season, he's way more valuable in the rotation.

I wonder if The Nationals considered moving Strasburg to the closer position when Drew Storen went down?

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 10:28 PM
Don't forget, the article today states that Dusty wants Chapman to start, it's just not possible this year.

He wants Chapman to do whatever is required to help them win this year and get him a new contract.

Dusty doesn't care about 2013. He's all in this year by necessity.

edabbs44
05-20-2012, 10:31 PM
Well, he probably won't K 17 guys per 9 or keep posting a 0.00 ERA. But, if he can even come close to resembling the guy we've been seeing so far this season, he's way more valuable in the rotation.

I wonder if The Nationals considered moving Strasburg to the closer position when Drew Storen went down?

The Rangers did the same thing with Neftali Feliz the last 3 years and have a few pennants to show for it.

The Operator
05-20-2012, 10:40 PM
The Rangers did the same thing with Neftali Feliz the last 3 years and have a few pennants to show for it.And maybe they'd actually have a ring were he in the rotation, it can go either way.

But either way, The Reds don't have the resources that Texas does. A team like The Reds should be getting the maximum possible value they can out of an arm like Chapman.

mdccclxix
05-20-2012, 10:55 PM
He wants Chapman to do whatever is required to help them win this year and get him a new contract.

Dusty doesn't care about 2013. He's all in this year by necessity.

I know what you mean, but isn't that a good thing? I want a team that's focused on winning this year. Work out the details for next year, next year. It's next to impossible to move the pieces necessary for Chapman to start this year without making the team worse. Anything can happen, I suppose. Arredondo could be a great closer, but things like that are less certain - as is Chapman's success as a starter. We're lucky that "playing the safe card" is actually the best winning formula for this team this year. But again, it's important to know that they wanted Chapman in the rotation too, but stuff happened. Now the best bullpen in the NL just got even better.

Caveat Emperor
05-20-2012, 10:57 PM
Now the best bullpen in the NL just got even better.

You take a great bullpen. I'll take a great rotation.

Wanna bet who wins more games?

powersackers
05-20-2012, 11:07 PM
If Chapman becomes the closer, I don't think he ever starts a game for the Reds. Marshall has a .488 BABIP. No, that's not a misprint. He's been incredibly unlucky with guys simply hitting the ball where they ain't. You don't have a 7.0 K/BB ratio without being an excellent pitcher.

Of course, if they move him to setup and he simply keeps doing what he's done but gets the results he should, everybody will talk about how he just didn't have a "closer's mentality" or how closers need to be a power pitcher.

Maybe his pitches are just easier to hit where they ain't? Maybe he throws too many strikes? I am very happy he's no longer our closer.

WVRedsFan
05-20-2012, 11:39 PM
Maybe his pitches are just easier to hit where they ain't? Maybe he throws too many strikes? I am very happy he's no longer our closer.
That's not necessarily so. As far as I know, it's still closer by committee. At least I hope that's the case.

powersackers
05-20-2012, 11:43 PM
That's not necessarily so. As far as I know, it's still closer by committee. At least I hope that's the case.

I thought I heard Grande and Welsh say "Dusty gets to show off the changing of the guard in his bullpen" right before Chapman entered.

No?

WildcatFan
05-20-2012, 11:47 PM
Just be thankful that we have the best bullpen in the NL, and it just got better.

I could not disagree more. The bullpen was better on Saturday when our best pitcher came in to face Granderson, Cano, and ARod and laid them down flat than on Sunday when he entered to face Chavez, Martin, and Jones with a three-run lead in the ninth.

powersackers
05-21-2012, 02:48 AM
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/20/the-reds-might-make-aroldis-chapman-their-closer/

According to Fay it was announced Sunday that Chapman is the Reds closer.

757690
05-21-2012, 03:32 AM
You take a great bullpen. I'll take a great rotation.

Wanna bet who wins more games?

One without the other is worthless. A good rotation and a good bullpen is far more valuable than a great rotation and a below average pen or visa versa.

757690
05-21-2012, 03:34 AM
I could not disagree more. The bullpen was better on Saturday when our best pitcher came in to face Granderson, Cano, and ARod and laid them down flat than on Sunday when he entered to face Chavez, Martin, and Jones with a three-run lead in the ninth.

Sounds to me like it got better then. I'd rather have my best pitcher come in during the highest leverage situations then just coming in to get the final three outs.

puca
05-21-2012, 04:55 AM
One without the other is worthless. A good rotation and a good bullpen is far more valuable than a great rotation and a below average pen or visa versa.

I hate to break it to you, but so far this year their rotation has not been good. It ranks 11 out of 16 NL teams in terms of ERA, and in terms of wins, only the Rockies starters have fewer. Maybe it has the talent to do better than that, but combine a mediocre starting rotation with a mediocre offense and you have a team that will wallow around .500 mark no matter how good their bullpen is.

A team with a great starting rotation can win despite a mediocre offense and a medocre bullpen.

Not to mention it is much easier to trade for bullpen help come July than it is to snag a impact starting pitcher.

puca
05-21-2012, 04:57 AM
Sounds to me like it got better then. I'd rather have my best pitcher come in during the highest leverage situations then just coming in to get the final three outs.

I don't understand. How is pitching in the 9th inning with a 3-run lead the highest leverage situation? Or are you saying Chapman is not the best pitcher?

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 08:11 AM
Here's the confoundingly stupid aspect of all this -- if Bill Bray had been healthy to begin the year, Aroldis Chapman is possibly starting right now.

The Reds brass let the health of a middle relief guy (possibly two, if you throw Nick Masset in) determine how best to handle the highest potential arm in the organization.

This would be like Chris Heisey getting injured and telling Jay Bruce he needs to ride the pine because the team "desperately needs a good bat off the bench" for late-inning situations.

edabbs44
05-21-2012, 08:15 AM
Here's the confoundingly stupid aspect of all this -- if Bill Bray had been healthy to begin the year, Aroldis Chapman is possibly starting right now.

The Reds brass let the health of a middle relief guy (possibly two, if you throw Nick Masset in) determine how best to handle the highest potential arm in the organization.

This would be like Chris Heisey getting injured and telling Jay Bruce he needs to ride the pine because the team "desperately needs a good bat off the bench" for late-inning situations.

Masset, Bray and Madsen.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 08:28 AM
Masset, Bray and Madsen.

So, obviously, logic dictates that you move Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto into the bullpen too?

You know -- 3 injuries in the pen need to be filled with top-quality replacements.

edabbs44
05-21-2012, 08:36 AM
So, obviously, logic dictates that you move Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto into the bullpen too?

You know -- 3 injuries in the pen need to be filled with top-quality replacements.

You know that is slightly different.

HokieRed
05-21-2012, 08:39 AM
Here's the confoundingly stupid aspect of all this -- if Bill Bray had been healthy to begin the year, Aroldis Chapman is possibly starting right now.

The Reds brass let the health of a middle relief guy (possibly two, if you throw Nick Masset in) determine how best to handle the highest potential arm in the organization.

This would be like Chris Heisey getting injured and telling Jay Bruce he needs to ride the pine because the team "desperately needs a good bat off the bench" for late-inning situations.

This will happen when you reduce your trading flexibility dramatically by moving too many prospects in a massive overpay for a 5 inning starter.

cumberlandreds
05-21-2012, 08:43 AM
This would be like Chris Heisey getting injured and telling Jay Bruce he needs to ride the pine because the team "desperately needs a good bat off the bench" for late-inning situations.

I hadn't thought of it thay way but in essence that's what they did. At least it looks like they will let him close now. His talents won't go to waste by pitching two or three innings a week in a setup role. I'd rather him start but hopefully the Reds will get some value from him in a closers role for this season.

puca
05-21-2012, 09:16 AM
I hadn't thought of it thay way but in essence that's what they did. At least it looks like they will let him close now. His talents won't go to waste by pitching two or three innings a week in a setup role. I'd rather him start but hopefully the Reds will get some value from him in a closers role for this season.

This will be interesting to track. As of 5/19 of 7 out of 17 appearances for Chapman he entered the game when the score was within 1 run. For Marshall that happened in only 3 out of his 16 appearances.

As long as Dusty uses Chapman as he has traditionally used a closer, no longer will Chapman be available to get out of a 7th inning jam or pitch through the heart of the order in the 8th. Someone else will have to fill that role - a role that is IMO much more difficult (and important) than getting the last 3 outs of a game where your team has a 2-3 run lead.

I would rather my best pitcher be used in situations where the game is on the line. It is akin to saving your best pinch hitter until the 9th inning 'just in case', instead of using him at the most opportune time.

Plus Plus
05-21-2012, 09:47 AM
So, obviously, logic dictates that you move Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto into the bullpen too?

You know -- 3 injuries in the pen need to be filled with top-quality replacements.

I think that if the injuries had been to Bailey, Leake, and Latos that we would see Chapman in the starting rotation.

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 09:49 AM
As long as Dusty uses Chapman as he has traditionally used a closer, no longer will Chapman be available to get out of a 7th inning jam or pitch through the heart of the order in the 8th. Someone else will have to fill that role - a role that is IMO much more difficult (and important) than getting the last 3 outs of a game where your team has a 2-3 run lead.

I would rather my best pitcher be used in situations where the game is on the line. It is akin to saving your best pinch hitter until the 9th inning 'just in case', instead of using him at the most opportune time.

The bullpen consists of 7 guys. Presumably you should be able to play matchups in the 7th and 8th innings to your advantage with 6 of those 7 guys. If they blow the lead you can still come back as well. Not as possible in the 9th. Also, if you preserve the lead in the 7th with your best bullpen arm, now you've got Alfredo Simon or some one trying to close out the 9th. Just psychologically that works against you and for the other team, not to mention statistically.

This comparison of a pinch hitter to a closer has some intriguing similarity, but I wonder how far short it would fall in terms of real value. Just by way of extremes, has any pinch hitter ever struck fear in an opponent like Rivera, Gagne, Wagner, etc?

puca
05-21-2012, 09:52 AM
I think that if the injuries had been to Bailey, Leake, and Latos that we would see Chapman in the starting rotation.

And now if there is injuries to Bailey, Leake or Latos, what then?

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 09:59 AM
There is upside in all this:

1) best bullpen arm is now closer - potential for less blown saves
2) Bailey and Leake get to develop further
3) Bailey and Leake don't burn any options or get sent to the pen
4) Chapman can limit his innings build: 50 last year, 80ish this year
5) Marshall goes back to his role that he signed up for, where he dominates
6) Perhaps Dusty's become comfortable with playing matchups or giving saves to other pitchers on this roster
7) Dusty and Walt have stated they want Chapman to start, which he will eventually
8) The world has not ended and the Mayans said it would

puca
05-21-2012, 10:05 AM
The bullpen consists of 7 guys. Presumably you should be able to play matchups in the 7th and 8th innings to your advantage with 6 of those 7 guys. If they blow the lead you can still come back as well. Not as possible in the 9th. Also, if you preserve the lead in the 7th with your best bullpen arm, now you've got Alfredo Simon or some one trying to close out the 9th. Just psychologically that works against you and for the other team, not to mention statistically.

This comparison of a pinch hitter to a closer has some intriguing similarity, but I wonder how far short it would fall in terms of real value. Just by way of extremes, has any pinch hitter ever struck fear in an opponent like Rivera, Gagne, Wagner, etc?

Because if it is not Chapman it is automatically Simon that will be closing out the game. We have 4 RH relievers with ERAs < 3.

And again, as of today the designated 'closer' only entered 3 games where the score was within 1 run.

powersackers
05-21-2012, 10:09 AM
Because if it is not Chapman it is automatically Simon that will be closing out the game. We have 4 RH relievers with ERAs < 3.

And again, as of today the designated 'closer' only entered 3 games where the score was within 1 run.

So Rivera, Hoffman, Eck, Gagne etc. should never have been closers? They should have only pitched in high leverage 6-8 inning spots?

puca
05-21-2012, 10:12 AM
There is upside in all this:

1) best bullpen arm is now closer - potential for less blown saves
2) Bailey and Leake get to develop further
3) Bailey and Leake don't burn any options or get sent to the pen
4) Chapman can limit his innings build: 50 last year, 80ish this year
5) Marshall goes back to his role that he signed up for, where he dominates
6) Perhaps Dusty's become comfortable with playing matchups or giving saves to other pitchers on this roster
7) Dusty and Walt have stated they want Chapman to start, which he will eventually
8) The world has not ended and the Mayans said it would

1.) Marshall only blew 1 save this year (I think) - of course I know he was bailed out 2 other times
2.) The Reds can continue to routinely lose games that Bailey and Leake start
3.) Bailey is out of options. If Chapman can develop in the bullpen why couldn't Bailey/Leake
4.) So he may be able to pitch 120-150 next year if they deem it 'safe' to move him from the bullpen.
5.) I agree, but there were other ways to accomplish the same thing
6.) Perhaps Dusty stops chewing toothpicks. History says this will not be the case.
7.) Only if it becomes conveinent. Do you think the Reds are going to add more/better bullpen arms going into 2013?
8.) It is not December yet

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 10:14 AM
Because if it is not Chapman it is automatically Simon that will be closing out the game. We have 4 RH relievers with ERAs < 3.

And again, as of today the designated 'closer' only entered 3 games where the score was within 1 run.

Could be Simon, would be him more often than we'd like, I'd say. Could be Ondrusek and his high FIP, could be Arredondo, there are options...those options vary based on rest and circumstance. The last thing to remember though is how the bullpen was in shambles before Cordero solidified the role. Then guys could focus on their role and know what was coming, which we're told is helpful. If you dispute that, I couldn't argue with stats, or don't really want to/have time for it now.

The rotation has underperformed as a whole, as well. If everything works out and the bottom half starts pitching consistently well, the specter of Chapman and Marshall on the back end of the bullpen will be very difficult on opposing teams and their managers.

This move has good potential to work out extremely well for the Reds.

WildcatFan
05-21-2012, 10:17 AM
Sounds to me like it got better then. I'd rather have my best pitcher come in during the highest leverage situations then just coming in to get the final three outs.

That's what I'm saying.

Plus Plus
05-21-2012, 10:21 AM
And now if there is injuries to Bailey, Leake or Latos, what then?

I guess if six of the pitchers on the projected opening day roster all go down at the same time, the Reds are in a lot of trouble. Not sure what else to say.

puca
05-21-2012, 10:22 AM
So Rivera, Hoffman, Eck, Gagne etc. should never have been closers? They should have only pitched in high leverage 6-8 inning spots?

Well they may have been even more valuable in that role. The best bullpen in my memory didn't have a designated closer.

It doesn't take a ton of talent to preserve a 3 run lead in the ninth inning (or a 2 run lead for that matter). If anything CoCo showed us that.

WildcatFan
05-21-2012, 10:22 AM
Here's what I don't understand--when Marshall came in Friday and gave up two runs and Arredondo came in and closed it, what was wrong with that? A win is a win is a win. If Marshall comes in for the ninth and he isn't getting it done, toss in someone else. It's how the other innings work, too.

traderumor
05-21-2012, 10:26 AM
Here's what I don't understand--when Marshall came in Friday and gave up two runs and Arredondo came in and closed it, what was wrong with that? A win is a win is a win. If Marshall comes in for the ninth and he isn't getting it done, toss in someone else. It's how the other innings work, too.
That seems to be the approach for Dusty, at least with Marshall. He was a slave to "Cordero's my closer" when he was here. But, I think the whole closer debate has been had. It also seems like managers are slowly becoming less dogmatic about the one guy no matter what idea. Baseball is just like anything else. It has its groupthink aspects, then someone starts thinking again and trends change.

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 10:30 AM
1.) Marshall only blew 1 save this year (I think) - of course I know he was bailed out 2 other times
2.) The Reds can continue to routinely lose games that Bailey and Leake start
3.) Bailey is out of options. If Chapman can develop in the bullpen why couldn't Bailey/Leake
4.) So he may be able to pitch 120-150 next year if they deem it 'safe' to move him from the bullpen.
5.) I agree, but there were other ways to accomplish the same thing
6.) Perhaps Dusty stops chewing toothpicks. History says this will not be the case.
7.) Only if it becomes conveinent. Do you think the Reds are going to add more/better bullpen arms going into 2013?
8.) It is not December yet

1) Marshall seemed to be okay with the move, he'll do whatever he's told. In terms of stuff perhaps he was unlucky, but apparently if you wait for him to hang a curve (of which he'll throw over and over) you've got a shot at landing one in the seats. I don't hate him as closer, but he was quite shaky.
2) Bailey and Leake have 4.0 and 3.5 runs per game in support, that should go up and their performances should improve on the mound. Reds are .500 with Bailey, as well.
3) Leake doesn't strike me as a better bullpen arm than a starting pitcher. Bailey's been a 8 year project that's just getting close to fruition, not a good time to pull the plug, IMO.
4) If there was a year to complain about Chapman's under use it was last year - 50 innings, but also 7 walks per 9...You pitch Chapman 120 innings this year and watch the "Dusty ruins arms" idiots show up everywhere. I'm sure he/we need that.
5) again, see injuries to top three bullpen arms
6) the numbers say he's got to cool off!
7) conundrums like this one will have a way of taking too long to resolve, I agree, but that's next year's offseason to worry about, so we're reminded again - 2012 is very very important. I'll just say if Chapman closes in 2013 it's because Leake and Bailey did really well, oh yeah, and Arroyo's extension.
8) I thought their calendar ended in May, but that's from years ago watching History channel.

BCubb2003
05-21-2012, 10:34 AM
Blame the Nasty Boys. They locked in the seventh, eighth, ninth progression. In fact, they moved guys up the latter and out careerwise for several years.

I think you need to take your two best relievers, make one your seventh-inning fireman to get the starting pitcher out of trouble, and make the other your closer to keep the team from getting back in the game. Everyone else is situational.

puca
05-21-2012, 12:47 PM
I guess if six of the pitchers on the projected opening day roster all go down at the same time, the Reds are in a lot of trouble. Not sure what else to say.

If even one starter goes down we have Jeff Francis or Brett Tomko taking the ball ever 5th day <shudder>. The Reds are much thinner in the starting rotation than they are in the bullpen even being 3 relievers down. Not to mention it is much easier to 'find' a decent bullpen arm than a starter.

757690
05-21-2012, 12:51 PM
That's what I'm saying.

My bad. I read it wrong a d thought you were referring to Marshall. Oops.

traderumor
05-21-2012, 12:55 PM
Funny how Marshall has two years of top reliever performance with his style of pitching, but in a month and a half with the Reds he has a faulty pitching approach. I hope someone can fix him :rolleyes:

Plus Plus
05-21-2012, 12:58 PM
If even one starter goes down we have Jeff Francis or Brett Tomko taking the ball ever 5th day <shudder>. The Reds are much thinner in the starting rotation than they are in the bullpen even being 3 relievers down. Not to mention it is much easier to 'find' a decent bullpen arm than a starter.

Francis had 2.6 fWAR last year. I feel pretty comfortable with him as a sixth option given the current situation of the team.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 01:01 PM
You know that is slightly different.

It isn't different at all. The team had a need in the bullpen and they didn't ask any starting pitchers to go out there and throw. Why? Because if you can start, you'll almost always provide more value as a great starter than a great reliever. That's why great starters command $100+ million dollar contracts when relievers will usually struggle to reach even half that much.

The best 5 pitchers who can start should be starting. Period. Make a bullpen out of what's leftover.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 01:03 PM
7) Dusty and Walt have stated they want Chapman to start, which he will eventually

Chapman is always going to start next year. Spoiler Alert: Next year never comes.

There will always be an excuse to put Chapman in the pen -- he'll always be the best arm they can put out there. Someone needs to be bold and say "No," even at some short term expense to the current team.

The Voice of IH
05-21-2012, 01:21 PM
I'm sorry if this has already been brought up, but when is Masset and Bray expected to be back? that has been one of the go to reasons why he is in the pen to begin with.

jhu1321
05-21-2012, 01:53 PM
I'm sorry if this has already been brought up, but when is Masset and Bray expected to be back? that has been one of the go to reasons why he is in the pen to begin with.

I don't believe either of them has a timetable yet. Masset isn't even throwing yet,

cumberlandreds
05-21-2012, 02:03 PM
I don't believe either of them has a timetable yet. Masset isn't even throwing yet,

I think Bray is in Arizona working out. But you are right no timetable for either one. I'll be surprised if Masset pitches this season. I think the last three seasons finally caught up to him.

Chip R
05-21-2012, 04:58 PM
The Rangers did the same thing with Neftali Feliz the last 3 years and have a few pennants to show for it.

Perhaps Feliz may not be a good example to follow.

http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/7956348/texas-rangers-put-rhp-neftali-feliz-dl-elbow-injury

757690
05-21-2012, 06:28 PM
Classic Baker, lol

He says Chapman is the closer... but he will decide whose best to use each day based on the situation... in other words, Chapman is the closer, except when he's not... basically, closer by commitee...

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/05/21/rolen-update-5/



DAILY CHAPMAN UPDATE: Baker was asked about the closer situation again today. Aroldis Chapman is the closer, but he wont be used like your normal closer.

No. 1, Im tired of talking about it, Baker said. No. 2, let us play and do our thing. We still have to monitor him because hes not used to going three or four days in the a row. Its going to be a situation where were going to have to use who we think is best on that day. Hopefully, hes rested and the best guy for that day.

edabbs44
05-21-2012, 06:31 PM
Perhaps Feliz may not be a good example to follow.

http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/7956348/texas-rangers-put-rhp-neftali-feliz-dl-elbow-injury

That sucks...but difficult to place blame on the usage.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 06:33 PM
Honestly, the team is probably better off either axing Baker or offering him a contract extension -- because him managing to save his job won't do the long term future of this team any good. He's tunnel-vision focused on 2012 right now.

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 06:42 PM
Chapman is always going to start next year. Spoiler Alert: Next year never comes.

There will always be an excuse to put Chapman in the pen -- he'll always be the best arm they can put out there. Someone needs to be bold and say "No," even at some short term expense to the current team.

Is it possible you could be wrong? You seem convinced that the Reds are purposely lying about Chapman ever being a starter. For what? Just so they can drag the issue through the press, stir up the fans, dash hopes? Your hypothesis doesn't make any sense.

2010 Chapman struggled in the rotation in AAA.
2011 his walk per 9 was SEVEN and the rotation was chocked full.
2012 he basically made the rotation until the top 3 relievers went down.

As it now turns out, he's the reliever of the year so far and couldn't be off to a better start. His development is a complete success so far! Why are you so upset? It's not even like there's a spot in the rotation for Chapman to step into right now. Even further, Baker isn't cementing Chapman as the closer, which should at least give you pause to consider that if a spot were available in the rotation they still might like to use him there - say, in August or down the line.

What gives?

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 06:54 PM
As it now turns out, he's the reliever of the year so far and couldn't be off to a better start. His development is a complete success so far! Why are you so upset? It's not even like there's a spot in the rotation for Chapman to step into right now. Even further, Baker isn't cementing Chapman as the closer, which should at least give you pause to consider that if a spot were available in the rotation they still might like to use him there - say, in August or down the line.

What gives?

His development has been a complete success if you're hoping he develops into a 1 inning reliever. If you were hoping he'd be the hammer, #1 TOR starter that the Reds haven't had in decades, he's nowhere near developed.

Now we're looking at, in all likelihood, 2014 before Chapman can start a full season of games without an innings limit.

That's not acceptable, IMO.

So, now what? He's the reliever of the year this year? You'll excuse me for my lack of enthusiasm or excitement -- it's mostly caused by the fact that the overwhelming majority of successful, championship ballclubs win because they have Cy Young candidates in the rotation, not because they have the "Rolaids Relief Man of the Year" in the bullpen.

edabbs44
05-21-2012, 06:56 PM
Good bullpens are typically found in winning ball clubs.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 06:59 PM
Good bullpens are typically found in winning ball clubs.

Good bullpen? Absolutely. But if the choice is between great bullpen and great starting pitching, I take great starting pitching 100 times out of 100 without a second thought.

757690
05-21-2012, 07:24 PM
Good bullpen? Absolutely. But if the choice is between great bullpen and great starting pitching, I take great starting pitching 100 times out of 100 without a second thought.

When you factor in the leverage of each inning, the value of a strong bullpen can equal that of a strong rotation. Sometimes, if used correctly, the team's best reliever can provide more production than the team's best starter.

Using your best pitcher as a reliever is not a complete waste, it might even add more production, if used correctly.

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 09:51 PM
His development has been a complete success if you're hoping he develops into a 1 inning reliever. If you were hoping he'd be the hammer, #1 TOR starter that the Reds haven't had in decades, he's nowhere near developed.

Now we're looking at, in all likelihood, 2014 before Chapman can start a full season of games without an innings limit.

That's not acceptable, IMO.

So, now what? He's the reliever of the year this year? You'll excuse me for my lack of enthusiasm or excitement -- it's mostly caused by the fact that the overwhelming majority of successful, championship ballclubs win because they have Cy Young candidates in the rotation, not because they have the "Rolaids Relief Man of the Year" in the bullpen.

So, put him in the rotation right now, what does that scenario look like? Leake to AAA or bullpen, or Bailey to the pen? Arredondo and Marshall teaming up to close? Sign Arthur Rhodes as the lefty? Chapman throws how many innings this year over the 50 last year? 100 total, 120 total? 150 total? Would he even be available in the playoffs?

Spitball
05-21-2012, 09:56 PM
Neftali Feliz goes on the DL with elbow inflamation while Daniel Bard sees his k-rate drop from a consistent one per inning to 5.5 per nine. Switching from relief ace to starter isn't always going to translate to success.

RedlegJake
05-21-2012, 10:19 PM
I have no beef at this moment with Chapman in the pen. After all there is a limit on the innings he can pitch this year and it isn't yet time to panic about getting him stretched out in time to make the final push. My problem is the nagging suspicion that Dusty will do everything he can to keep Aroldis in the pen all season - that stretching out will never come. Hitting the playoffs without Aroldis in a starting role may be the worse thing that can happen unless this offense finds a bonafide lefthanded slugger for the 4spot to start regularly sticking big numbers on the scoreboard. Having a lock down setup man or closer won't matter much if you're down 3-1 or 2-0 in the 8th like 2010. Better a starter that can deliver you zero for zero until you can scratch out a run or two. And from 2013 onward Chapman's value is astronomically higher as a starter than a reliever. Which would you take in his prime - Pedro Martinez or Mariano Rivera? Of course that's hyberbole but it illustrates the point of value in the best case. If the Reds do move Chapman into the rotation before this season is 2/3ds over I'm satisfied but why do I feel that isn't happening even if Bray and Masset return? 2 words. Dusty Baker.

kaldaniels
05-21-2012, 10:24 PM
Neftali Feliz goes on the DL with elbow inflamation while Daniel Bard sees his k-rate drop from a consistent one per inning to 5.5 per nine. Switching from relief ace to starter isn't always going to translate to success.

Valid point.

mdccclxix
05-21-2012, 10:28 PM
I have no beef at this moment with Chapman in the pen. After all there is a limit on the innings he can pitch this year and it isn't yet time to panic about getting him stretched out in time to make the final push. My problem is the nagging suspicion that Dusty will do everything he can to keep Aroldis in the pen all season - that stretching out will never come. Hitting the playoffs without Aroldis in a starting role may be the worse thing that can happen unless this offense finds a bonafide lefthanded slugger for the 4spot to start regularly sticking big numbers on the scoreboard. Having a lock down setup man or closer won't matter much if you're down 3-1 or 2-0 in the 8th like 2010. Better a starter that can deliver you zero for zero until you can scratch out a run or two. And from 2013 onward Chapman's value is astronomically higher as a starter than a reliever. Which would you take in his prime - Pedro Martinez or Mariano Rivera? Of course that's hyberbole but it illustrates the point of value in the best case. If the Reds do move Chapman into the rotation before this season is 2/3ds over I'm satisfied but why do I feel that isn't happening even if Bray and Masset return? 2 words. Dusty Baker.

You also have to get rid of one of the starters somehow.

Walt and Dusty and the whole staff works on decisions like this, perhaps ineffectively so, but whatever is decided isn't all Dusty.

RedlegJake
05-21-2012, 10:34 PM
You also have to get rid of one of the starters somehow.

Walt and Dusty and the whole staff works on decisions like this, perhaps ineffectively so, but whatever is decided isn't all Dusty.

By mid July I'd worry about that IF someone hasn't gone down. I've yet to see a season when all 5 starters stay healthy.

hebroncougar
05-21-2012, 10:44 PM
I get the argument. But where had Chapman ever been a successful starter? You know, outside of Fidel Castro's semi pro league?

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mth123
05-21-2012, 10:49 PM
I get the argument. But where had Chapman ever been a successful starter? You know, outside of Fidel Castro's semi pro league?

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

Good question IMO.

The Operator
05-21-2012, 11:21 PM
Neftali Feliz goes on the DL with elbow inflamation while Daniel Bard sees his k-rate drop from a consistent one per inning to 5.5 per nine. Switching from relief ace to starter isn't always going to translate to success.Neftali Feliz is also pretty short, he doesn't have nearly the size going for him that Chapman does. I can't comment on Bard, though.

Also, CJ Wilson went from the bullpen to the rotation and has been great.

hebroncougar
05-21-2012, 11:25 PM
Neftali Feliz is also pretty short, he doesn't have nearly the size going for him that Chapman does. I can't comment on Bard, though.

Also, CJ Wilson went from the bullpen to the rotation and has been great.

CJ Wilson also has more than two pitches he can use effectively. I think most people assume Chapman can go straight into the rotation. Is the thinking from the Reds, that it'll take 6 months for him to stretch out and learn to use the change up, at minimum. And they don't have that kind of time right now, so put him in the pen, get 75-80 innings from him, and go from there?

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The Operator
05-21-2012, 11:37 PM
CJ Wilson also has more than two pitches he can use effectively. I think most people assume Chapman can go straight into the rotation. Is the thinking from the Reds, that it'll take 6 months for him to stretch out and learn to use the change up, at minimum. And they don't have that kind of time right now, so put him in the pen, get 75-80 innings from him, and go from there?

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2It's pretty hard to work on a 3rd or 4th pitch when you're coming in from the bullpen.

We've heard for the last two seasons that he's going to be a starter but they end up putting him in the bullpen because "we could really use him right now" and the timeline for him to become a starter keep getting pushed off further and further into the future, if ever. TOR starters are really rare, much more rare than shutdown bullpen guys. If The Reds need a lockdown bullpen I'd rather they build that some other way than by wasting Chapman's talents.

757690
05-22-2012, 01:25 AM
CJ Wilson also has more than two pitches he can use effectively. I think most people assume Chapman can go straight into the rotation. Is the thinking from the Reds, that it'll take 6 months for him to stretch out and learn to use the change up, at minimum. And they don't have that kind of time right now, so put him in the pen, get 75-80 innings from him, and go from there?

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

Wilson also threw about 5 MPH slower than Chapman when he was in the pen.

There's a long list pitchers that were succesful, who only had command of two pitches, if one of them was extraordinary.

The Operator
05-22-2012, 01:30 AM
Wilson also threw about 5 MPH slower than Chapman when he was in the pen.

There's a long list pitchers that were succesful, who only had command of two pitches, if one of them was extraordinary.Mario Soto and Randy Johnson spring to mind.

gilpdawg
05-22-2012, 05:44 AM
So Rivera, Hoffman, Eck, Gagne etc. should never have been closers? They should have only pitched in high leverage 6-8 inning spots?

Well....yeah, if not for that darned save rule. Your best guy should pitch in the biggest spot, no matter which inning it is.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 09:51 AM
Well....yeah, if not for that darned save rule. Your best guy should pitch in the biggest spot, no matter which inning it is.

Again, I'd check your logic. Do managers put in their closer because its a "save situation," or does a "save situation" make sense to have your guy in the game? I'd submit the situation of "close game late" is dictating the pecking order rather than a stat. The reference to the stat is vernacular.

Kc61
05-22-2012, 10:01 AM
Well....yeah, if not for that darned save rule. Your best guy should pitch in the biggest spot, no matter which inning it is.

I think it's a matter of workload allocation. By having a steady closer you accomplish several things. First, you have a capable reliever pitching in the last inning of close games, generally important spots. Second, the closer will rest when the team is behind or way ahead in the ninth. Third, this rest keeps the closer fresh to pitch most of the time in close games in the ninth. It's a steady, predictable way of giving a good reliever an appropriate amount of work.

I have no problem with this approach. My preference has always been the 1999 Danny Graves-Scott Williamson approach, having a primary closer and another guy who can also close to avoid overuse. But I'm ok with defined bullpen roles. Dusty is a bit too rigid in implementing these roles IMO.

Over time, Chapman as closer will be a huge benefit for the Reds, so long as there is a backup closer to avoid overuse. It think the Reds will win some tight games in part because Chapman is the closer. Using Chappy as a setup man would have benefits too, but the closer spot is reasonable as well.

As for Chapman starting, it isn't going to happen this year unless there is a rash of injuries. The reason is Ryan Madson's surgery. The Reds needed another high end bullpen arm when Madson went down.

That's just the way it is, the Reds won't be "stretching Chapman out" in mid-season unless injuries require. It might not be our first choice, or the team's first choice, but it is necessary this year and will contribute to the Reds' success this year.

Sea Ray
05-22-2012, 10:06 AM
Has this been brought up anywhere?


One day after officially being named the Reds’ closer, Aroldis Chapman is in some hot water.

According to NBC affiliate WLTW, Chapman was arrested in Ohio early Monday morning after speeding while driving with a suspended license.

Chapman was pulled over after being clocked at 93 mph in his 2010 Mercedes S63. That probably doesn’t seem very fast to him since his average fastball checks in at 96.7 mph this season, but most normal people consider that excessive and reckless. The Cuban left-hander was arrested after the officer saw he was driving with a suspended Kentucky driver’s license. There was no mention of alcohol in the report.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/21/aroldis-chapman-arrested-in-ohio-for-driving-93-mph-on-suspended-license/

puca
05-22-2012, 10:27 AM
Again, I'd check your logic. Do managers put in their closer because its a "save situation," or does a "save situation" make sense to have your guy in the game? I'd submit the situation of "close game late" is dictating the pecking order rather than a stat. The reference to the stat is vernacular.


Depends on your definition of 'close game late'. Of Marshall's 11 save opportunities (not counting his appearance as a setup man), 4 were of the '3-run lead with no one on base' variety. 5 more were of the '2-run lead with no one on base'. In only 2 cases (including last night) did he enter the game with the tying run at the plate. I get that not every reliever appears to thrive in that role for what ever reason, but in most cases it doesn't take perfection - or anywhere near perfection - to succeed in that role (see Cordero, Coco).

puca
05-22-2012, 10:29 AM
Has this been brought up anywhere?


http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/21/aroldis-chapman-arrested-in-ohio-for-driving-93-mph-on-suspended-license/

Yes, it has its own thread.

mth123
05-22-2012, 10:34 AM
Support for Puca and others (me included) from ESPN.




For all the consternation over who gets the capital C designation, it shouldn't really matter. Marshall is a very good reliever. Chapman has been a great one. Arredondo and Logan Ondrusek are solid right-handers and rookie J.J. Hoover has looked impressive. What Baker should avoid doing is getting trapped into saving Chapman for the ninth inning only -- which means fewer innings and fewer moments with the game on the line. Chapman is the guy you want in there when you need a big strikeout with runners on base in the eighth inning. Marshall, Arrendodo and Ondrusek can close out the three-run leads. Use Chapman and his bullpen mates wisely, and the Reds can stay in this race even with a mediocre offense.



http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/24684/hey-st-louis-here-come-the-reds

Put me down as a guy who thinks your best reliever is the guy you bring in with the game on the line and that isn't usually the 9th inning. I think the way they've used Chapman so far this year is the best way to get the most value from his limited innings. No sense wasting any of them with a three run lead in the 9th.

Even as a starter, they'd be eating up his innings in chunks of 6 or so where the game may not really be close and Chapman may be overkill. IF the Reds didn't have 5 decent options to start, I'd be more in favor of moving Chapman into the rotation now and letting the chips fall in the pen, but the current contingent of Starters allows the Reds to use all of Chapman's innings where they will make the absolute most impact in the win or loss column. Unfortunately, I think using him as "closer" makes less impact than having him to snuff out the game on the line situation 2 or 3 times each week.

puca
05-22-2012, 10:43 AM
I think it's a matter of workload allocation. By having a steady closer you accomplish several things. First, you have a capable reliever pitching in the last inning of close games, generally important spots. Second, the closer will rest when the team is behind or way ahead in the ninth. Third, this rest keeps the closer fresh to pitch most of the time in close games in the ninth. It's a steady, predictable way of giving a good reliever an appropriate amount of work.

I have no problem with this approach. My preference has always been the 1999 Danny Graves-Scott Williamson approach, having a primary closer and another guy who can also close to avoid overuse. But I'm ok with defined bullpen roles. Dusty is a bit too rigid in implementing these roles IMO.

Over time, Chapman as closer will be a huge benefit for the Reds, so long as there is a backup closer to avoid overuse. It think the Reds will win some tight games in part because Chapman is the closer. Using Chappy as a setup man would have benefits too, but the closer spot is reasonable as well.

As for Chapman starting, it isn't going to happen this year unless there is a rash of injuries. The reason is Ryan Madson's surgery. The Reds needed another high end bullpen arm when Madson went down.

That's just the way it is, the Reds won't be "stretching Chapman out" in mid-season unless injuries require. It might not be our first choice, or the team's first choice, but it is necessary this year and will contribute to the Reds' success this year.

The counter argument is that you can use a setup man in actual important spots instead of waiting to see if an important spot happens to occur in the 9th inning of a game. It is also easier to regulate the innings of a setup man because you aren't disrupting the entire bullpen when he isn't available.

I get that Chapman is our best closer candidate, and will even provide value to the Reds in that role. It's just that I have always felt the traditional closer role was a bit overblown and that setup men tend to pitch in many more 'close-late' situations. Not to mention that this move ends any chance that we will see Chapman in the rotation this season - which is something I was really hoping to see.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 11:04 AM
Depends on your definition of 'close game late'. Of Marshall's 11 save opportunities (not counting his appearance as a setup man), 4 were of the '3-run lead with no one on base' variety. 5 more were of the '2-run lead with no one on base'. In only 2 cases (including last night) did he enter the game with the tying run at the plate. I get that not every reliever appears to thrive in that role for what ever reason, but in most cases it doesn't take perfection - or anywhere near perfection - to succeed in that role (see Cordero, Coco).Well, of course. Within a grand slam is close enough for me. 3 run game tying homers happen pretty fast also. Best to have your best out there at that time. There are a lot of different options in bullpen pecking order discussions, probably the most important of a manager's game strategy duties in this era.

Kc61
05-22-2012, 11:53 AM
The counter argument is that you can use a setup man in actual important spots instead of waiting to see if an important spot happens to occur in the 9th inning of a game. It is also easier to regulate the innings of a setup man because you aren't disrupting the entire bullpen when he isn't available.

I get that Chapman is our best closer candidate, and will even provide value to the Reds in that role. It's just that I have always felt the traditional closer role was a bit overblown and that setup men tend to pitch in many more 'close-late' situations. Not to mention that this move ends any chance that we will see Chapman in the rotation this season - which is something I was really hoping to see.

I don't disagree. My personal preference would be to have Chappy in a more flexible role. I had proposed Arredondo for closer, although his walks last night were a bit frightening.

I just meant to set out the rationale for a steady closer and I don't think it's a terrible decision to have Aroldis close games. Some nights, we'll be happy for that judgment. I recognize that there are advantages to the more flexible role for someone of his abilities.

puca
05-22-2012, 12:04 PM
Well, of course. Within a grand slam is close enough for me. 3 run game tying homers happen pretty fast also. Best to have your best out there at that time. There are a lot of different options in bullpen pecking order discussions, probably the most important of a manager's game strategy duties in this era.

I'd rather have my best out there with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a tie game than to save him for some situation that may-or-may not even occur.

puca
05-22-2012, 12:09 PM
I don't disagree. My personal preference would be to have Chappy in a more flexible role. I had proposed Arredondo for closer, although his walks last night were a bit frightening.

I just meant to set out the rationale for a steady closer and I don't think it's a terrible decision to have Aroldis close games. Some nights, we'll be happy for that judgment. I recognize that there are advantages to the more flexible role for someone of his abilities.

We are close to being on the same page in regards to Chapman. He will be great in the closer's role, I just think his talent is overkill for most of the situations he will end up pitching. He had been pitching in more 'close and late' situations (by my definition) as a setup man than Marshall had been as our closer. If I recall correctly there are studies out there that would back up that position, although there may also be studies out there that refute it.

I agree Arredondo made me quite uncomfortable last night and brought back memories of Coco. Of course Coco is remembered as being an elite closer, so.....

Homer Bailey
05-22-2012, 12:21 PM
First, just watching Marshall this season eliminates any discussion of his BABIP being a product of "luck." He simply has pitched poorly, getting hit hard on numerous mistake pitches. If he were to continue what he is doing, he will have the same results, very bad ones.

Second, the main reason why BABIP tends to gravitate towards a certain level, is that pitchers go through rough patches throughout the season, where they lose control of a pitch, a release point, etc. Eventually, the good pitchers that last, regain their control and get back on track. With starter, this isn't a big deal, as it takes a start or two usually for them to find their grove. However, that's about 10-15 appearances for a closer. The Reds can't afford to let Marshall find his grove in 10-15 9th innings. Let him find it in less crucial innings.

No, it doesn't.



This will happen when you reduce your trading flexibility dramatically by moving too many prospects in a massive overpay for a 5 inning starter.

Is that what Mat Latos is? Or is that what he has been over the last month and a half? Huge difference between the two.

MWM
05-22-2012, 12:33 PM
Count me in the camp that doesn't see Chapman as a starter. He doesn't have command enough to be a starter. If he could throw 96-97 for 7 innings, then he could probably get by without good command. But chances are he would drop to 94-95, and his second and third time through the lineup hitters would be able to start catching up to his pitches. They'd also be able to more easily lay off some of the bad pitches they currently swing at.

I think Chapman's dominance right now is based on his ability to keep it in the higher 90s and keep it pretty close to the pate. If he drops down to mid-90s, I don't see it working. I think closer might be perfect for him.

I agree in principle with the idea that you want your most dominant pitcher pitching the highest leverage outs, regardless of whether it's a save situation or not. I'm not a believer in the absolute need for a "closer", however I do think there are exceptions when you have someone who can dominate to the extreme like Chapman. In those rare circumstances I like the idea of having the 9th inning hammer. Mariano Rivera is an example. It changes the dynamic of the game in late innings.

Chapman could be the best closer in the game. I think there's a lot of value in that. If given the choice between great reliever and really good starter, I'll take the starter 9 times out of 10. I think Chapman could be that one exception. Give me a choice between the best closer in the game and a good starter, I'll take the closer. But that's all based on my view of him as a starter. If you tell me he could be a top tier starter over a course of a season, then it's a no brainer to me.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 12:48 PM
I'd rather have my best out there with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a tie game than to save him for some situation that may-or-may not even occur.It would depend on the overall strength of the bullpen. For example, your method is not going to work very well in a thin bullpen, as the jam in the 7th inning becomes a rally in the later innings because you just burnt your best reliever.

That is one of the reasons I think Dusty is already managing this bullpen differently, he has confidence in Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, and Ondrusek to close the door, and they usually have.

That's the thing about bullpen management, its an art more than a science. The whole "high leverage" idea sounds nice, but it isn't as easy as just "well, put in your best reliever to put out the fire when the game's on the line" because the game may be on the line several times.

Caveat Emperor
05-22-2012, 01:29 PM
Count me in the camp that doesn't see Chapman as a starter. He doesn't have command enough to be a starter. If he could throw 96-97 for 7 innings, then he could probably get by without good command. But chances are he would drop to 94-95, and his second and third time through the lineup hitters would be able to start catching up to his pitches. They'd also be able to more easily lay off some of the bad pitches they currently swing at.

I think Chapman's dominance right now is based on his ability to keep it in the higher 90s and keep it pretty close to the pate. If he drops down to mid-90s, I don't see it working. I think closer might be perfect for him.

I agree in principle with the idea that you want your most dominant pitcher pitching the highest leverage outs, regardless of whether it's a save situation or not. I'm not a believer in the absolute need for a "closer", however I do think there are exceptions when you have someone who can dominate to the extreme like Chapman. In those rare circumstances I like the idea of having the 9th inning hammer. Mariano Rivera is an example. It changes the dynamic of the game in late innings.

Chapman could be the best closer in the game. I think there's a lot of value in that. If given the choice between great reliever and really good starter, I'll take the starter 9 times out of 10. I think Chapman could be that one exception. Give me a choice between the best closer in the game and a good starter, I'll take the closer. But that's all based on my view of him as a starter. If you tell me he could be a top tier starter over a course of a season, then it's a no brainer to me.

I think you need to at least give him a a chance to fail as a starter before you send him to the bullpen.

Even Mariano Rivera -- the greatest relief pitcher of my lifetime -- only went to the bullpen because he couldn't hack it as a starter when given the chance.

puca
05-22-2012, 01:59 PM
It would depend on the overall strength of the bullpen. For example, your method is not going to work very well in a thin bullpen, as the jam in the 7th inning becomes a rally in the later innings because you just burnt your best reliever.

That is one of the reasons I think Dusty is already managing this bullpen differently, he has confidence in Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, and Ondrusek to close the door, and they usually have.

That's the thing about bullpen management, its an art more than a science. The whole "high leverage" idea sounds nice, but it isn't as easy as just "well, put in your best reliever to put out the fire when the game's on the line" because the game may be on the line several times.

But by the same token if the bullpen is thin and you cough up the lead in the 7th there is no game to save in the 9th. But the game IS on the line at that moment and if you don't get out of that situation chances are that it will not be again.

Say you are giving Joey Votto the day off. He is available to pinch hit but some nagging soreness prevents you from switching him into the game. It is the home half of the 7th inning, the game is tied 4-4, the bases are loaded with 2 out and the pitcher is due up to bat. Do you use Votto in that situation or do you save him because he might be in a position to drive in the winning run in the 9th?

Frankly, if you ask me, the fewer bullets you have the more you have to make them count.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 02:17 PM
But by the same token if the bullpen is thin and you cough up the lead in the 7th there is no game to save in the 9th. But the game IS on the line at that moment and if you don't get out of that situation chances are that it will not be again.

Say you are giving Joey Votto the day off. He is available to pinch hit but some nagging soreness prevents you from switching him into the game. It is the home half of the 7th inning, the game is tied 4-4, the bases are loaded with 2 out and the pitcher is due up to bat. Do you use Votto in that situation or do you save him because he might be in a position to drive in the winning run in the 9th?

Frankly, if you ask me, the fewer bullets you have the more you have to make them count.
I think you're missing my broader point, which is you are proposing a "right and wrong" way to use any bullpen in any situation, and I'm suggesting that bullpen management is much more involved than "first instance of game on the line and I'm going to the bullpen, bring in best reliever." Sure, there may be times where that strategy buys you another inning with the lead, but night in and night out, it just isn't very practical and is oversimplifying bullpen strategy decisions.

Patrick Bateman
05-22-2012, 02:18 PM
First, just watching Marshall this season eliminates any discussion of his BABIP being a product of "luck."

I am sure you are wrong.

Look at Jimmy Anderson's career stats. No way in hell is Marshall throwing more mistake pitches than a guy like that. The BAPIP will regress to the mean. If Marshall has problems with constant mistake pitches he wouldnt have a K/BB rate of 7.

puca
05-22-2012, 02:29 PM
I think you're missing my broader point, which is you are proposing a "right and wrong" way to use any bullpen in any situation, and I'm suggesting that bullpen management is much more involved than "first instance of game on the line and I'm going to the bullpen, bring in best reliever." Sure, there may be times where that strategy buys you another inning with the lead, but night in and night out, it just isn't very practical and is oversimplifying bullpen strategy decisions.

You are putting words in my mouth. In fact I was saying the opposite. I claim that proposing that the 'right' strategy is saving your best pitcher for the 9th inning just-in-case it is a save situation are the ones that are oversimplifying bullpen strategy decisions.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 02:50 PM
You are putting words in my mouth. In fact I was saying the opposite. I claim that proposing that the 'right' strategy is saving your best pitcher for the 9th inning just-in-case it is a save situation are the ones that are oversimplifying bullpen strategy decisions.I would call it making an inference from your proposal to bring in your best reliever in the 7th when the bases are loaded. All you are doing is saying that isn't the right way, this is the right way.

puca
05-22-2012, 04:06 PM
I would call it making an inference from your proposal to bring in your best reliever in the 7th when the bases are loaded. All you are doing is saying that isn't the right way, this is the right way.

I'm not sure how you got the 'that isn't the right way, this is the right way' from anything I said. It seems like you are the one taking the position that 9th inning trumps any other and so there is only one way to use your best reliever.

traderumor
05-22-2012, 04:43 PM
I'm not sure how you got the 'that isn't the right way, this is the right way' from anything I said. It seems like you are the one taking the position that 9th inning trumps any other and so there is only one way to use your best reliever.Looks like we are not understanding each other then, because I am saying exactly the opposite. But I'm seeing that as clear from my post, where I discuss bullpen management being an art and not a science. Not sure where you get me arriving at the conclusion that "closer in the 9th inning" is best. I actually have pointed out how with the Reds bullpen having four backend guys gives Dusty options if he wants to do more situational bullpen management. It seems he is seeing some early payoff in that usage so far. So.........maybe we both need to reread each others ideas and move on.

Spitball
05-22-2012, 09:51 PM
What if Chapman turns into Dennis Eckersley? Maybe he is meant to be a closer...although I dream of him starting.

PuffyPig
05-22-2012, 09:53 PM
What if Chapman turns into Dennis Eckersley? Maybe he is meant to be a closer...although I dream of him starting.

That's OK, but he needs to win 20 first as a starter, like Eck.

Kc61
05-22-2012, 09:53 PM
What if Chapman turns into Dennis Eckersley? Maybe he is meant to be a closer...although I dream of him starting.

I'm of two minds on this. I think Chappy could be a great closer for many years. it would really help the team, especially if the rotation is in good shape.

On the other hand, many of my RedsZone friends would have to be physically restrained. Don't want that.

PuffyPig
05-22-2012, 09:57 PM
Count me in the camp that doesn't see Chapman as a starter. He doesn't have command enough to be a starter. If he could throw 96-97 for 7 innings, then he could probably get by without good command. But chances are he would drop to 94-95, and his second and third time through the lineup hitters would be able to start catching up to his pitches. They'd also be able to more easily lay off some of the bad pitches they currently swing at.



He's very young, what kind of command did Randy Johnson exhibit at his age?

Look at the improvemnt of Chapman since last year.

He is still likely to get quite a bit better.

_Sir_Charles_
05-22-2012, 09:57 PM
I'm of two minds on this. I think Chappy could be a great closer for many years. it would really help the team, especially if the rotation is in good shape.

On the other hand, many of my RedsZone friends would have to be physically restrained. Don't want that.

I agree that he could be a VERY good closer for a long time. But IMO it's a waste of his talent. Because I think he could be a VERY good starter for a long time too. 200+ ip of Chapman is much better than 60-80 ip no matter how you slice it.

Kc61
05-22-2012, 10:10 PM
I agree that he could be a VERY good closer for a long time. But IMO it's a waste of his talent. Because I think he could be a VERY good starter for a long time too. 200+ ip of Chapman is much better than 60-80 ip no matter how you slice it.

I just have no way of knowing if he would be a TOR starter. He certainly has the stuff. Whether he can do it for seven innings and maintain his command, I just don't know either way.

Strong view that Chapman will get his opportunity to start for the Reds next season, so we should find out.

RedsManRick
05-22-2012, 10:25 PM
What if Chapman turns into Dennis Eckersley? Maybe he is meant to be a closer...although I dream of him starting.

Eckersley? The guy who was a starter for the first 11 years of his career? It'd take that, but I'd prefer not to skip those days as a starter. The VAST majority of Eckersley's career value came from those days.

PuffyPig
05-22-2012, 11:08 PM
I am sure you are wrong.

Look at Jimmy Anderson's career stats. No way in hell is Marshall throwing more mistake pitches than a guy like that. The BAPIP will regress to the mean. If Marshall has problems with constant mistake pitches he wouldnt have a K/BB rate of 7.

Haven't you heard, Marshall is the first pitcher to control his BABIP!!!!

Spitball
05-22-2012, 11:14 PM
Eckersley? The guy who was a starter for the first 11 years of his career? It'd take that, but I'd prefer not to skip those days as a starter. The VAST majority of Eckersley's career value came from those days.

Whoa! I know Dennis Eckersley! I lived in the Boston area and New England from the 1950s through the early 1980s (with a few years in Cincinnati in the late 1960s). I am a native New Englander and a Red Sox fan.

I am talking about the guy who made the Hall of Fame based on his dominance as a reliever. He had some good years as a starter, but his numbers in the late 1980s in relief were amazing and what got him into the HOF. That is what I am refering to.

Caveat Emperor
05-22-2012, 11:45 PM
What if Chapman turns into Dennis Eckersley? Maybe he is meant to be a closer...although I dream of him starting.

If Chapman is destined to be Dennis Eckersley, you trade him. You can find a decent "closer" from any number of sources, usually within your own organization. In the interim, there will surely be some team who will overpay greatly for a guy who only pitches one inning.

Spitball
05-23-2012, 12:06 AM
If Chapman is destined to be Dennis Eckersley, you trade him. You can find a decent "closer" from any number of sources, usually within your own organization. In the interim, there will surely be some team who will overpay greatly for a guy who only pitches one inning.

Eckersley wasn't decent. He was dominant. He put up Hall of Fame numbers. Look at his whip, walks, and ERA.

Besides, exactly how do you trade a guy and tell prospective trade partners that the guy might be Dennis Eckersley?

reds44
05-23-2012, 12:12 AM
The words "trade" and "Chapman" are said in the same sentence together entirely too much on this board. It makes no sense.

RedsManRick
05-23-2012, 12:16 AM
Whoa! I know Dennis Eckersley! I lived in the Boston area and New England from the 1950s through the early 1980s (with a few years in Cincinnati in the late 1960s). I am a native New Englander and a Red Sox fan.

I am talking about the guy who made the Hall of Fame based on his dominance as a reliever. He had some good years as a starter, but his numbers in the late 1980s in relief were amazing and what got him into the HOF. That is what I am refering to.

I know, but I don't think he makes it to the HOF based on those 6 years of dominance. Even then, I'd take 180 IP of a 3.50 ERA as a starter over 60 IP of a 2.25 ERA as a closer and wouldn't have to think twice. The very best closers are still role players. That people over-estimated the value of closers in the past doesn't make me inclined to do the same.

Don't get me wrong, Eck was awesome and I'd be quite happy if Chapman can put together some seasons like that. But I'll take the Eckersley who was an ace from 75 through 79.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2012, 12:27 AM
Eckersley wasn't decent. He was dominant. He put up Hall of Fame numbers. Look at his whip, walks, and ERA.

Besides, exactly how do you trade a guy and tell prospective trade partners that the guy might be Dennis Eckersley?

Eckersley was amazing. A small market team doesn't need an amazing closer, they need great STARTING pitching and a competent closer.

Therefore, if you end up with a great closer -- recognized as great by other teams -- the prudent move is to deal that pitcher off if you can bring back starting pitching or some other need.

Look at it this way: the Reds signed a great closer for a 1 year deal. They had a bad bit of luck, but it doesn't change the fact that a great closer was on the FA market for an extremely reasonable deal.

If all Aroldis Chapman is to this organization is a great closer, deal him off, get a haul of players back, and go find a good closer in any number of ways.

gilpdawg
05-23-2012, 12:45 AM
I'd rather have my best out there with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a tie game than to save him for some situation that may-or-may not even occur.

Totally. But that's not "by the book" so it never happens. I wish more managers were like Joe Maddon. Heck, I wish we had him.

Of course you have to have a relatively deep pen to do that so you don't have your mop up man pitching the ninth, but I think we have that luxury.

mdccclxix
05-23-2012, 07:59 AM
Chapman closing the 9th is like a game ending touchdown or 3 pointer, the crowd goes nuts! Triple digits on the gun, 1-2-3 sit down! I love it!

It really gives the fans, and the team, a brisk feeling towards the end of the game instead of, "okay, let's see how difficult this victory is going to be to maintain..."

I like the change, especially since our rotation is set this year.

Degenerate39
05-23-2012, 08:22 AM
Chapman gives everyone a reason to stay till the end.

Love to see him in the rotation though

Bumstead
05-23-2012, 10:04 AM
I imagine Cueto could be a really good closer too. Who is for moving him to closer?

Bum

dougdirt
05-23-2012, 10:11 AM
I imagine Cueto could be a really good closer too. Who is for moving him to closer?

Bum

Doesn't throw hard enough. But that Justin Verlander kid, I bet he would be an excellent closer.

Bumstead
05-23-2012, 10:37 AM
Doesn't throw hard enough. But that Justin Verlander kid, I bet he would be an excellent closer.

We've already heard how anybody can close. Greg McMichael closed. Rod Beck was throwing in the low 80's and still closing...of course he was frowning at the batters; so there's that...Yeah Verlander would be great, what a waste as a starter...Not to mention how much we all missed out on by Randy Johnson not being a closer...

I find it humorous too that there are comparisons to Rivera...Rivera has 1 pitch and 1 pitch only...

It's a shame that Red's management can't seem to find enough relief pitching to put Chapman in AAA and find out how good he can be as a starter. It's completely ridiculous that this has gone on now for the 3rd season in a row.

Bum

REDREAD
05-23-2012, 10:45 AM
So, obviously, logic dictates that you move Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto into the bullpen too?

You know -- 3 injuries in the pen need to be filled with top-quality replacements.

"Only the Sith deals in absolutes" :laugh:

Not trying to get you mad, but isn't this a sillly leap in logic?

The team was deep enough in the starting rotation to give them the luxury of moving Chapman to the bullpen.

You still haven't given us your alternative solution. If they started the season with Chapman in the rotation, does Leake or Bailey go into the pen? Who backfills for Madson/Bray/Masset.. that's a lot of bullpen innings to absorb.

We are actually very fortunate to be able to pick up Hoover, and very fortunate that Arrendando has been pitching well too.

REDREAD
05-23-2012, 10:51 AM
I'm sorry if this has already been brought up, but when is Masset and Bray expected to be back? that has been one of the go to reasons why he is in the pen to begin with.

They were speculating that Masset might be able to start throwing this week. He's checking in with Doc Hollywood. Then he'd need about a month before being ready to be in a ML game.

traderumor
05-23-2012, 10:54 AM
They were speculating that Masset might be able to start throwing this week. He's checking in with Doc Hollywood. Then he'd need about a month before being ready to be in a ML game.Of course, Masset coming back at this point wouldn't in and of itself seem to change anything since he's not going to close, at least initially. It would be a great opportunity for Dusty to really explore situational closing and start the Chapman to the rotation move.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2012, 01:24 PM
"Only the Sith deals in absolutes" :laugh:

Not trying to get you mad, but isn't this a sillly leap in logic?

The team was deep enough in the starting rotation to give them the luxury of moving Chapman to the bullpen.

You still haven't given us your alternative solution. If they started the season with Chapman in the rotation, does Leake or Bailey go into the pen? Who backfills for Madson/Bray/Masset.. that's a lot of bullpen innings to absorb.

We are actually very fortunate to be able to pick up Hoover, and very fortunate that Arrendando has been pitching well too.

Leake goes to the bullpen, or Bailey gets dealt for bullpen help. If an out-of-options out-machine like Juan Francisco gets you a JJ Hoover arm, I suspect Homer Bailey should bring something of at least equal value.

Promote your best bullpen prospect from AA / AAA and see what happens.

They've got Marshall, Ondrusek and Arredondo in the front of the pen. I'm comfortable with some combination of those three pitching the 7th, 8th and 9th regularly.

mdccclxix
05-23-2012, 06:25 PM
Leake goes to the bullpen, or Bailey gets dealt for bullpen help. If an out-of-options out-machine like Juan Francisco gets you a JJ Hoover arm, I suspect Homer Bailey should bring something of at least equal value.

Promote your best bullpen prospect from AA / AAA and see what happens.

They've got Marshall, Ondrusek and Arredondo in the front of the pen. I'm comfortable with some combination of those three pitching the 7th, 8th and 9th regularly.

So, this is really an older problem that you're upset about, it's not just about the decision to move him to closer this week. And it's not really just Dusty, it's the whole FO that didn't find a trading partner for Bailey. Or didn't want to go with Leake in the pen. And didn't want to get Chapman some more innings last year to build up. That makes sense to most people. But jamming Chapman in the rotation in May? Without your 3 best bullpen arms from last year? Being convinced that Dusty and Walt just lie to the fans about the rotation plan? Just assuming Chapman's going to be lights out and not a 4-5 inning starter all year? Not concerned about an innings limit this year? Accusing Dusty of putting himself before the success of the franchise? Not acknowledging that 2012 is as important as any year in the last 20 to the fans and team?

Sure in 2 years if Chapman is an ace you can look back and say, it should have started even sooner! That doesn't mean your plan is unequivocally the right plan.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2012, 07:17 PM
So, this is really an older problem that you're upset about, it's not just about the decision to move him to closer this week. And it's not really just Dusty, it's the whole FO that didn't find a trading partner for Bailey. Or didn't want to go with Leake in the pen. And didn't want to get Chapman some more innings last year to build up. That makes sense to most people. But jamming Chapman in the rotation in May? Without your 3 best bullpen arms from last year? Being convinced that Dusty and Walt just lie to the fans about the rotation plan? Just assuming Chapman's going to be lights out and not a 4-5 inning starter all year? Not concerned about an innings limit this year? Accusing Dusty of putting himself before the success of the franchise? Not acknowledging that 2012 is as important as any year in the last 20 to the fans and team?

Sure in 2 years if Chapman is an ace you can look back and say, it should have started even sooner! That doesn't mean your plan is unequivocally the right plan.

Three straight years we've seen Aroldis Chapman sent to the bullpen. There's absolutely no reason to think, at this point, they'll ever make good on their "wish" that he be a starting pitcher.

There will always be a thousand reasons to keep Chapman in the pen. It's the easy thing to do -- let him keep doing the small job he does very well. It's a bold decision to move him to the rotation.

Bold decisions win championships.

And, if Chapman is an "ace" in 2 years, we'll ALL be lamenting the fact that he's so close to free agency and that the Reds wasted valuable time having him be a 1 inning guy.

757690
05-23-2012, 07:32 PM
I know, but I don't think he makes it to the HOF based on those 6 years of dominance. Even then, I'd take 180 IP of a 3.50 ERA as a starter over 60 IP of a 2.25 ERA as a closer and wouldn't have to think twice. The very best closers are still role players. That people over-estimated the value of closers in the past doesn't make me inclined to do the same.

Don't get me wrong, Eck was awesome and I'd be quite happy if Chapman can put together some seasons like that. But I'll take the Eckersley who was an ace from 75 through 79.

In the abstrct, change the word closer to reliever, and I'll take the reliever. If all he is doing is getting the last three outs, I agree with you. But if he is in the mold of Gossage, Sutter, Quiz, and Fingers, and coming in to get the highest leverage outs, that is at least as valuable as a top starter.

Now Eck was an elite starter from 75-79, so I agree with you on him personally, he was more valuable as a starter in his career than as a reliever.

757690
05-23-2012, 07:36 PM
Three straight years we've seen Aroldis Chapman sent to the bullpen. There's absolutely no reason to think, at this point, they'll ever make good on their "wish" that he be a starting pitcher.

There will always be a thousand reasons to keep Chapman in the pen. It's the easy thing to do -- let him keep doing the small job he does very well. It's a bold decision to move him to the rotation.

Bold decisions win championships.

And, if Chapman is an "ace" in 2 years, we'll ALL be lamenting the fact that he's so close to free agency and that the Reds wasted valuable time having him be a 1 inning guy.

In two years, Chapman will be three years away from free agency. People seem to forget that the Reds have him under contract until 2016, but under team control until 2017.

edabbs44
05-23-2012, 07:55 PM
Three straight years we've seen Aroldis Chapman sent to the bullpen. There's absolutely no reason to think, at this point, they'll ever make good on their "wish" that he be a starting pitcher.

There will always be a thousand reasons to keep Chapman in the pen. It's the easy thing to do -- let him keep doing the small job he does very well. It's a bold decision to move him to the rotation.

Bold decisions win championships.

And, if Chapman is an "ace" in 2 years, we'll ALL be lamenting the fact that he's so close to free agency and that the Reds wasted valuable time having him be a 1 inning guy.

If the Reds have a pennant involved at some point, I won't be lamenting anything.

And what if Aroldis doesn't end up being an ace? Will we be talking about how he will have been used properly or will we be accusing the FO of stunting his growth as a starter? My guess is the latter.

klw
05-25-2012, 12:56 PM
Jayson Stark weighs in with a Rumblings on Chapman. Good Stuff.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings120525/should-aroldis-chapman-starting-pitcher-closer


Check out his numbers so far this season. You've never seen anything like them: 91 batters faced, 43 strikeouts, 7 hits, 7 walks, 0 earned runs.

So what other pitchers in history have ever rolled up more than six strikeouts for every hit they allowed in a season? None, of course.

The greatest ratio ever by a pitcher who even worked 20 innings or more? It was compiled by the mysterious Ed Cushman (4.7 strikeouts per hit -- 47 K's, 10 hits) of the 1884 Milwaukee Brewers of the old United Association.

The greatest since 1900? That would be Craig Kimbrel's 4.4 whiffs per hit for the 2010 Braves (40 K's, 9 hits).

Other than those two, only Eric Gagne in 2003 (3.7) and Billy Wagner in 1999 (3.5) even piled up 3.5 punchouts for every hit. But ladies and gentlemen, we should point out that Chapman is almost DOUBLING that rate.

But hang on. There's more. At this pace, Chapman would finish this season with 106 more strikeouts than BASERUNNERS (162 K's, 26 hits, 26 walks, 4 hit batters). And the only pitchers in history who ever did that in a season were starters:

Pedro Martinez, 2000: 284 strikeouts, 174 baserunners
Pedro Martinez, 1999: 313 strikeouts, 208 baserunners
Randy Johnson, 2001: 372 strikeouts, 270 baserunners

OnBaseMachine
05-25-2012, 02:00 PM
In that same article, Jocketty confirms what we already knew - Chapman won't be a starter this season.

And another quote:


Well, Jocketty will be happy to know that we did find one executive who seconded that motion, a guy whose team pursued Chapman following his defection from Cuba in 2009 and said: "I think he could be the second coming of Randy Johnson."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings120525/should-aroldis-chapman-starting-pitcher-closer

Superdude
05-25-2012, 02:04 PM
And, most of all, how could he make his greatest impact -- as a potential No. 1 starter or as one of the most untouchable closers who ever lived? "That," Jocketty said, "is the old debate. And I don't know the answer. I remember early in my career, when we'd try to put together clubs, we'd ask that question: Which do you need more -- a great starter or a closer? If you don't have good starters, you never need the closer. But if you don't have the closer, you can lose your club in a hurry. So what I've always tried to do is have both."

Another fun quote. Somewhat disconcerting that this is a topic of debate for the man running the franchise.

puca
05-25-2012, 02:21 PM
For those that put stock in WAR: Mariano Rivera's peak season was 3.3 fgWAR, Randy Johnson's was 10.7 fgWAR.

If the Reds think he could become Randy Johnson, it is pretty clear what they should do.

Plus Plus
05-25-2012, 03:10 PM
For those that put stock in WAR: Mariano Rivera's peak season was 3.3 fgWAR, Randy Johnson's was 10.7 fgWAR.

If the Reds think he could become Randy Johnson, it is pretty clear what they should do.

Relevant:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/can-wpa-explain-how-teams-buy-relievers

Brutus
05-25-2012, 03:32 PM
Another fun quote. Somewhat disconcerting that this is a topic of debate for the man running the franchise.

Why is that disconcerting? There isn't a right or wrong answer. Frankly, it's refreshing to see that even in baseball circles, there's a lot of mixed feelings as to what the proper course of action is with a guy like this. I don't find anything wrong with it. There isn't a right answer. He SHOULD be conflicted because it's not an easy decision.

thatcoolguy_22
05-25-2012, 03:57 PM
Disregard. The story was already posted. Put me in the camp that wants Chapman starting next year. The bullpen experiment has worked out fine this year, but Chapman starting will open up a big trade chip with either Bailey/Leake for whatever the team will need next year.

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2012, 04:14 PM
Why is that disconcerting? There isn't a right or wrong answer. Frankly, it's refreshing to see that even in baseball circles, there's a lot of mixed feelings as to what the proper course of action is with a guy like this. I don't find anything wrong with it. There isn't a right answer. He SHOULD be conflicted because it's not an easy decision.

If you don't know that dominant starting pitching far outweighs dominant relief pitching, you should just be fired.

There is an easy answer to this question. Most of the other people in baseball have this figured out -- it's why Matt Cain and CC Sabathia are worth $100+ million and people laughed at the Reds and Blue Jays when they paid "dominant" closers half that amount.

It's depressing that the Reds continue to waste the best arm they've had in my lifetime in a 1 inning role.

edabbs44
05-25-2012, 04:26 PM
For those that put stock in WAR: Mariano Rivera's peak season was 3.3 fgWAR, Randy Johnson's was 10.7 fgWAR.

If the Reds think he could become Randy Johnson, it is pretty clear what they should do.

Wait until they are comfortable with where he is in his growth as a pitcher? FYI, Unit walked 144 batters as a 28 year old.

Degenerate39
05-25-2012, 04:29 PM
Any chance the Reds will try giving him two innings every so often when he's the closer? Get his innings built up

mth123
05-25-2012, 04:38 PM
OTOH, Chapman has been in 20 games and has played a significant role in well over half of the Reds Wins. I'd argue that he's been more valuable than Cueto who has impacted 9 games and 2 of those were negative impacts. If Chapman was starting, I think its too optimistic to think he'd be as good as Cueto. I get the innings argument, but on this staff in this year, the Reds have 5 good alternatives in the rotation but really no one who can do what Chapman has done so far in the pen (including any of those 5 starters). Even if you think that Chapman as a starter is way more valuable, I'd argue that the upgrade from one of the current 5 would pale in comparison to the downgrade in the bullpen.

No question that Chapman is more valuable as a starter, but does wasting one of the others while creating a huge hole in the pen really make the team better? Winning the most games is most important, not elevating Chapman's individual value.

Kc61
05-25-2012, 04:41 PM
I also found Walt's comment refreshing. He had a tough call to make. And so far, as others have said, the judgment to put Chappy in the pen has been a smashing success.

Walt could have opted to send Aroldis to AAA to start, as some wanted. Or to start Aroldis with the Reds and use a Bailey or Leake in the pen to replace Madson.

Instead he chose to use Chapman as a reliever in Madson's place and the team is now in first place - with Aroldis playing a huge role as key reliever.

It's a good debate, but for me, I'm enjoying watching this pitcher absolutely dominate in a relief role. Amazing performance so far.

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2012, 04:54 PM
OTOH, Chapman has been in 20 games and has played a significant role in well over half of the Reds Wins. I'd argue that he's been more valuable than Cueto who has impacted 9 games and 2 of those were negative impacts.

So, by your logic, the Nationals should have moved Stephen Strasburg to the bullpen when Drew Storen was injured.

Because, the goal should be to get Strasburg to play a "significant role" in more games, right?

Bumstead
05-25-2012, 04:54 PM
So, by your logic, the Nationals should have moved Stephen Strasburg to the bullpen when Drew Storen was injured.

Because, the goal should be to get Strasburg to play a "significant role" in more games, right?

Clearly...:thumbup:

757690
05-25-2012, 05:08 PM
So, by your logic, the Nationals should have moved Stephen Strasburg to the bullpen when Drew Storen was injured.

Because, the goal should be to get Strasburg to play a "significant role" in more games, right?

No, because moving Strasburg to the pen would have created a gigantic hole in their rotation.

Moving Chapman to the pen does not create a hole in the Reds rotation.

There is a long history of teams successfully moving top starters into the closer role for emergency purposes. Wainwright in StL, Smoltz in Atl, Papelbon in Boston, Myers in Houston, Perez in Tex, Wood in Chi, just to name a few off of the top of my head.

757690
05-25-2012, 05:18 PM
For those that put stock in WAR: Mariano Rivera's peak season was 3.3 fgWAR, Randy Johnson's was 10.7 fgWAR.

If the Reds think he could become Randy Johnson, it is pretty clear what they should do.

WAR equates all innings, which is false.

Are 7 ninth innings with a one run lead worth the same the first 7 innings of a blowout?

If those WAR numbers are accurate, then Rivera at his best is only a league average player. That doesn't pass the smell test.

mth123
05-25-2012, 05:45 PM
So, by your logic, the Nationals should have moved Stephen Strasburg to the bullpen when Drew Storen was injured.

Because, the goal should be to get Strasburg to play a "significant role" in more games, right?

If they had 5 good starters, if Strasburg could pitch in the pen and if there was no track record of Strasburg being able to pitch through a line-up three times, heck yeah. But Strasburg has proven he can go through a line-up 3 times, they don't have rotation options remotely close to Bailey or Leake and Strasburg has never shown the ability to pitch in the bullpen.

These are all the same reasons I wouldn't move Cueto or Latos to the pen. We know those guys can start, but we don't really know if they can relieve. We know Chapman can dominate for an inning or two. We have no idea if he can go 6+ with any success.

757690
05-25-2012, 05:48 PM
Just curiously, we're all these people who say that a good bullpen isn't as valuable as a good rotation, born after 1990?

puca
05-25-2012, 05:56 PM
OTOH, Chapman has been in 20 games and has played a significant role in well over half of the Reds Wins. I'd argue that he's been more valuable than Cueto who has impacted 9 games and 2 of those were negative impacts.

That completely ignores the impact of a starter going deep into the game has on the bullpen in subsequent games. It also ignores that a scoreless inning of relief is not a rare occurance - even for average pitchers. By your reckoning Logan and Arrendondo have also been more valuable than Cueto because they have also impacted more games than Cueto.

puca
05-25-2012, 06:00 PM
Just curiously, we're all these people who say that a good bullpen isn't as valuable as a good rotation, born after 1990?

The 1990 team had Rijo, Danny Jackson and Tom Browning - not to mention a 1/2 a dominating year of Armstrong. Without solid starters that bullpen would have never become famous. Fortunately the Reds were bright enough to move Rijo from the bullpen to the rotation before the 1989 season or 1990 may not have even happened.

Brutus
05-25-2012, 06:02 PM
If you don't know that dominant starting pitching far outweighs dominant relief pitching, you should just be fired.

There is an easy answer to this question. Most of the other people in baseball have this figured out -- it's why Matt Cain and CC Sabathia are worth $100+ million and people laughed at the Reds and Blue Jays when they paid "dominant" closers half that amount.

It's depressing that the Reds continue to waste the best arm they've had in my lifetime in a 1 inning role.

Except it's not black and white as you'd have it. There are a lot of other factors to be considered... such as is starting position something of need; is the guy cut out for starting; what's best long-term for health and total production.

It's kind of bizarre that if it's so obvious as you say that several scouts and baseball officials seem torn on whether Chapman should be starting or in the pen. I guess all of them should be fired?

mth123
05-25-2012, 06:04 PM
That completely ignores the impact of a starter going deep into the game has on the bullpen in subsequent games. It also ignores that a scoreless inning of relief is not a rare occurance - even for average pitchers. By your reckoning Logan and Arrendondo have also been more valuable than Cueto because they have also impacted more games than Cueto.

Except when Chapman comes in, its over. Rally snuffed. Not true for Arredondo or Ondrusek who are good pitchers but not remotely the same.

mth123
05-25-2012, 06:12 PM
I think where the disagreement in this thread really comes from is the assumption that many are making that Chapman would be a top end starter before we've even seen him make one start. So far, he's only started regularly for half a season in AAA and he wasn't even all that hot at it. I think its a huge assumption to say with such certainty that he'd be an upgrade from Leake or Bailey if he had to go through a line-up 3 times. He may very well be. I think he could be. But he also may be terrible. There is a real risk of weakening both the pen and the rotation by moving him in. I want to find out as much as anyone, but I'm not really anxious to find out in a pennant race. I'll take my shutdown bullpen arm and my above average 5 man rotation and take my chances.

757690
05-25-2012, 06:26 PM
The 1990 team had Rijo, Danny Jackson and Tom Browning - not to mention a 1/2 a dominating year of Armstrong. Without solid starters that bullpen would have never become famous. Fortunately the Reds were bright enough to move Rijo from the bullpen to the rotation before the 1989 season or 1990 may not have even happened.

Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo and Leake >>>>> Rijo, Jackson, Browning, Armstrong, Scudder. Which really is the most important point in this discussion. Reds have a great rotation without Chapman, and a great pen with him.

puca
05-25-2012, 06:29 PM
I think where the disagreement in this thread really comes from is the assumption that many are making that Chapman would be a top end starter before we've even seen him make one start. So far, he's only started regularly for half a season in AAA and he wasn't even all that hot at it. I think its a huge assumption to say with such certainty that he'd be an upgrade from Leake or Bailey if he had to go through a line-up 3 times. He may very well be. I think he could be. But he also may be terrible. There is a real risk of weakening both the pen and the rotation by moving him in. I want to find out as much as anyone, but I'm not really anxious to find out in a pennant race. I'll take my shutdown bullpen arm and my above average 5 man rotation and take my chances.

I is not that I believe Chapman will be a TOR starter, it is that the Reds are saying that THEY believe he will be one. If they really beleive that then they are silly for not preparing him for that role. A true TOR starter can carry a team in the post season. A closer has no impact unless the rest of the team performs. Again in the 2010 playoffs our closer didn't set a foot on the field.

puca
05-25-2012, 06:34 PM
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo and Leake >>>>> Rijo, Jackson, Browning, Armstrong, Scudder. Which really is the most important point in this discussion. Reds have a great rotation without Chapman, and a great pen with him.

I'm not ready to declare that after 1/4 of the season. Besides Charlton started more games that Scudder.

RedlegJake
05-25-2012, 06:52 PM
Chapman's a much better pitcher now than he was when he started in AAA so I think it's safe to say that his AAA starts are pretty much an invalid comp. He has learned and changed a lot since then.

I'm not worried a bit about his actual production in early innings if converted but I am worried how well he'll handle things when he starts hitting the 4th, 5th and 6th inning and his pitch count starts adding up - a territory he hasn't been in for a long, long time now.

I think it's a dangerous experiment to try mid season and although I don't like it - I'd much rather he was starting - I think this season he should remain in the bullpen. This is a major shift in my thinking from just a few days ago. I admit that.

But he is insurance if a starter goes down and maybe he'll still get a chance - maybe a piggyback start combined with LeCure to begin. 3-4 innings for Chapman, then LeCure for 3, then the pen takes over. This protects him from too much too soon, and might be the way he gets in the rotation.

But if everyone stays healthy and no one is out more than a start or two, I think it might be best just to stay with the "Magnificent Seven" starring Chapman, Marshall, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Hoover, Simon, and LeCure. Best bullpen in baseball.

I really think the starting pitching is good enough, if all are healthy and available in October but the offense is not. The Reds really, really need that cleanup hitter to bat between Votto and Bruce. If they somehow got a legitimate bat to protect Joey and get BP back in the top of the lineup I think the offense could take off and then this team could be very, very dangerous. The starting is good enough to keep them in the game and the pen with Marshall and Chapman and the others is simply slam the door. Add a truly good offense as above and they are serious contenders for the Series.

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2012, 07:19 PM
I think where the disagreement in this thread really comes from is the assumption that many are making that Chapman would be a top end starter before we've even seen him make one start. So far, he's only started regularly for half a season in AAA and he wasn't even all that hot at it. I think its a huge assumption to say with such certainty that he'd be an upgrade from Leake or Bailey if he had to go through a line-up 3 times. He may very well be. I think he could be. But he also may be terrible. There is a real risk of weakening both the pen and the rotation by moving him in. I want to find out as much as anyone, but I'm not really anxious to find out in a pennant race. I'll take my shutdown bullpen arm and my above average 5 man rotation and take my chances.

No one here "assumes" Chapman will be a dominant, top-end starter. I believe that the potential exists for him to be one (evidenced by the dominant numbers he's put up in relief, his spring training starts, and the fact that he was a starter before coming to the US), and the Reds are foolishly not even considering the possibility or giving it a shot.

As I said earlier -- even Mariano Rivera was tried as a starter before being sent to the bullpen.

mth123
05-25-2012, 07:22 PM
I is not that I believe Chapman will be a TOR starter, it is that the Reds are saying that THEY believe he will be one. If they really beleive that then they are silly for not preparing him for that role. A true TOR starter can carry a team in the post season. A closer has no impact unless the rest of the team performs. Again in the 2010 playoffs our closer didn't set a foot on the field.

The Reds say he has TOR potential. They said the same about Homer Bailey, Chris Gruler and Brandon Claussen. That's a far cry from him actually being one and would be a huge leap moving him in now without having started a game since mid-2010 in AAA. If the Reds had a Josh Fogg or Jose Acevedo sized hole in the rotation, it would be a no brainer, but they don't. The hole is in the pen where Chapman has already proven to be a huge asset in 2010 and 2011.

I was all for the Reds sending him to AAA to start and see how he does against hitters multiple times, but seeing how its played out, I really believe there would be no first place, no 6 game streak and probably no .500 record had they done that.

mth123
05-25-2012, 07:37 PM
No one here "assumes" Chapman will be a dominant, top-end starter. I believe that the potential exists for him to be one (evidenced by the dominant numbers he's put up in relief, his spring training starts, and the fact that he was a starter before coming to the US), and the Reds are foolishly not even considering the possibility or giving it a shot.

As I said earlier -- even Mariano Rivera was tried as a starter before being sent to the bullpen.

Sure and if there was an opening, I'd move him in. As for dominant numbers, I think pitching to 4 or 5 hitters once or twice per series, with no guarantee that the same 4 or 5 hitters see you twice and with match-ups generally already considered in the deployment, is completely different than pitching to a line-up 3 times in the same game. Even his spring starts were mostly 3 innings or less and didn't involve guys getting multiple cracks at him. Could he do it? Sure, I'm as hopeful as anyone. Do we want to go to such an unknown now while we have guys who are being effective? Not me. I like what he's doing in the pen and while I think he could have way more value starting, now's not the time IMO. The team as a whole would suffer IMO.

redsfandan
05-25-2012, 08:26 PM
The Reds say he has TOR potential. They said the same about Homer Bailey, Chris Gruler and Brandon Claussen. That's a far cry from him actually being one and would be a huge leap moving him in now without having started a game since mid-2010 in AAA. If the Reds had a Josh Fogg or Jose Acevedo sized hole in the rotation, it would be a no brainer, but they don't. The hole is in the pen where Chapman has already proven to be a huge asset in 2010 and 2011.

I was all for the Reds sending him to AAA to start and see how he does against hitters multiple times, but seeing how its played out, I really believe there would be no first place, no 6 game streak and probably no .500 record had they done that.

I'm pretty sure it wasn't only the Reds that thought that.

And are you looking into your crystal ball when you say that? Cuz I don't know how you or anyone else could know how he'd do. I do know that if they had just let him stay a starter we may not have Arroyo now. Arroyo has been pretty good so far this year but isn't it possible that Chapman could've been just as good? If Chapman could hold down a spot in the rotation, and Arroyo didn't need to be resigned, couldn't all those millions going to Arroyo gone elsewhere to improve the major league club??

Chapman has a higher ceiling and is cheaper. It almost sounds like you might be buying into the thinking of those that think Chapman as a closer is worth more.

mth123
05-25-2012, 08:40 PM
I'm pretty sure it wasn't only the Reds that thought that.

And are you looking into your crystal ball when you say that? Cuz I don't know how you or anyone else could know how he'd do. I do know that if they had just let him stay a starter we may not have Arroyo now. Arroyo has been pretty good so far this year but isn't it possible that Chapman could've been just as good? If Chapman could hold down a spot in the rotation, and Arroyo didn't need to be resigned, couldn't all those millions going to Arroyo gone elsewhere to improve the major league club??

Chapman has a higher ceiling and is cheaper. It almost sounds like you might be buying into the thinking of those that think Chapman as a closer is worth more.


I'm buying into the fact that Chapman as closer (or better shut down reliever) with 5 good starters already in place is worth more than Chapman starting and being a long shot to be much better than what is already in the rotation and creating a huge hole in the pen. I can think of 5 or 6 games that looked like they were going to be blown in the 7th or 8th until Chapman came in and shut it down. I think the Reds would have lost a good number of those had Chapman been in the rotaion and I'm struggling to see where he would have been a huge upgrade from the guys already starting. I refuse to assume that a guy who has never faced major league hitters multiple times in a game is a lock to be better than an average starter.

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2012, 01:11 AM
I refuse to assume that a guy who has never faced major league hitters multiple times in a game is a lock to be better than an average starter.

If he's merely league average, he'd still be an adequate replacement for Homer Bailey -- who has been essentially a reaplcement-level player his entire career.

mth123
05-26-2012, 01:25 AM
If he's merely league average, he'd still be an adequate replacement for Homer Bailey -- who has been essentially a reaplcement-level player his entire career.

I'm not a big WAR guy, but 1.3 in 2009, 1.9 in 2010 and 1.5 in 2011, all with only around 20 starts each year. That's a lot better than replacement and over a full season would probably be better than an average starter. Assuming Chapman would be average, a swap of he and Bailey in the rotation would be a break-even at best. Chapman would have to be significantly above average to see some improvement in the rotation (and that certainly could happen). Meanwhile, the bullpen would be taking a huge hit. Again, considering that Chapman is such an unknown in the rotation, I don't see any reason to make that switch.

If Bailey or one of the other starters tanks or is hurt, then I'd move Chapman in, but until then, I don't see the probability for meaningful improvement to the rotation to make it worth the huge hit it would mean for the pen. Masset and Bray come back strong to offset some of the loss it would mean for the pen, then that may change the math.

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2012, 01:25 AM
Just curiously, we're all these people who say that a good bullpen isn't as valuable as a good rotation, born after 1990?

Starting pitching has equal value to relief pitching.

OK.

So why did Matt Cain get a $100+ million dollar contract while Sean Marshall -- universally acknowledged as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball -- doesn't even make it to $20 million.

Shouldn't they be getting paid the same -- or at least getting contracts equally as long -- if starting pitching is equally as valuable as relief pitching?

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2012, 01:37 AM
I'm not a big WAR guy, but 1.3 in 2009, 1.9 in 2010 and 1.5 in 2011, all with only around 20 starts each year. That's a lot better than replacement and over a full season would probably be better than an average starter. Assumimg Chapman would be average, a swap of he and Bailey in the rotation would be a break-even at best. Chapman would have to be significantly above average to see some improvement in the rotation (and that certainly could happen). Meanwhile, the bullpen would be taking a huge hit. Again, considering that Chapman is such an unknown in the rotation, I don't see any reason to make that switch.

If Bailey or one of the other starters tanks or is hurt, then I'd move Chapman in, but until then, I don't see the probablity for meaningful improvement to the rotation to make it worth the huge hit it would mean for the pen. Masset and Bray come back strong toffset some of the loss it would mean for the pen, then that may change the math.

Baseball-reference has Homer Bailey at exactly 0 for career WAR. I'm seeing what you're seeing on fangraphs now that I look -- either way, we're not talking about someone setting the world on fire with his pitching.

Additionally, I'm of the mind that you can't focus on 2012 alone here -- the Reds have lots of different pieces all under contract for multiple years. By continuing to waste Chapman in the bullpen, it eats his years of team control and pushes back the date where he can, theoretically, be a full-fledged starter.

Chapman is on pace to throw 88.1 innings this year. Even if the team finally decides to actually make him a starter (and sticks with their guns, instead of copping out and putting him in the bullpen AGAIN), how many innings can he throw next season? He threw 108 in 2010 (combined minors + majors), 63 in 2011, and is looking to throw ~88 in 2012. You'd have to have him on an incredibly strict innings limit, which would limit his effectiveness or limit his ability to pitch in a playoff run or postseason.

So, if you have dreams of Aroldis Chapman taking the ball in Game 1 of the World Series, you're now putting those on hold until 2014 -- at the absolute earliest. And for what, really? A chance to watch Homer Bailey continue to annoy and frustrate everyone with his "Looks like he's about to turn the corner and then melts down again" routine? I've seen that movie for years. I'm ready to at least find out if the Reds can have a pitcher that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing teams.

mth123
05-26-2012, 02:11 AM
Baseball-reference has Homer Bailey at exactly 0 for career WAR. I'm seeing what you're seeing on fangraphs now that I look -- either way, we're not talking about someone setting the world on fire with his pitching.

Additionally, I'm of the mind that you can't focus on 2012 alone here -- the Reds have lots of different pieces all under contract for multiple years. By continuing to waste Chapman in the bullpen, it eats his years of team control and pushes back the date where he can, theoretically, be a full-fledged starter.

Chapman is on pace to throw 88.1 innings this year. Even if the team finally decides to actually make him a starter (and sticks with their guns, instead of copping out and putting him in the bullpen AGAIN), how many innings can he throw next season? He threw 108 in 2010 (combined minors + majors), 63 in 2011, and is looking to throw ~88 in 2012. You'd have to have him on an incredibly strict innings limit, which would limit his effectiveness or limit his ability to pitch in a playoff run or postseason.

So, if you have dreams of Aroldis Chapman taking the ball in Game 1 of the World Series, you're now putting those on hold until 2014 -- at the absolute earliest. And for what, really? A chance to watch Homer Bailey continue to annoy and frustrate everyone with his "Looks like he's about to turn the corner and then melts down again" routine? I've seen that movie for years. I'm ready to at least find out if the Reds can have a pitcher that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing teams.

I want the Reds to win 95+ games in 2012, go to the play-offs and go deep and hopefully win it all. IMO, getting league average from Bailey with Chapman in the pen is more likely to accomplish that than getting basically nothing from Bailey as a long reliever, Chapman moving into the rotation as a complete unknown who will be long past his inning limit and unavailable by September and the pen becoming seriously weaker. When the play-offs roll around, the Reds will be much more formidable with Cueto, Latos, Arroyo and Bailey with Chapman looming in the late innings than they will with Chapman on the inactive list because he's long past his innings limit and shut down.

That's another issue. If you really want Chapman getting the ball as a starter in the play-offs, moving him in the rotation now is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen. Waiting until Bray and Masset come back keeps the pen strong and holds his innings down so if they would switch, it can last through the post-season. There just isn't much reason to switch now unless the equation changes either in the rotation with an injury or some one completely falling apart or in the pen with guys coming back reducing the need for Chapman down there

I'll worry about 2013 when 2012 is over at this point. I want to win everything in 2012.

757690
05-26-2012, 02:22 AM
Starting pitching has equal value to relief pitching.

OK.

So why did Matt Cain get a $100+ million dollar contract while Sean Marshall -- universally acknowledged as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball -- doesn't even make it to $20 million.

Shouldn't they be getting paid the same -- or at least getting contracts equally as long -- if starting pitching is equally as valuable as relief pitching?

Why did Carl Crawford get $145M while Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia only got $50M? There are hundreds of other examples of owners overvaluing some players while undervaluing others.

Basically, at this point, teams are just getting a grasp on WPA, which is much more accurate at estimating production than WAR. WPA shows that relievers can, if used correctly, be as valuable as starters.

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2012, 02:22 AM
That's another issue. If you really want Chapman getting the ball as a starter in the play-offs, moving him in the rotation now is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen.

Not moving him now is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen in 2012 or 2013.

I understand wanting to win now -- believe me I do -- but I look at this team and I see a starting pitching staff that will be closer to the bottom half of the league than the top when the season shakes out. The team needs better starting pitching. Chapman can potentially provide that answer in the future, but only if you start to cultivate that now.

mth123
05-26-2012, 02:34 AM
Not moving him now is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen in 2012 or 2013.

Why? Say, Bray and Masset come back after the All Star break and Chapman moves into the rotation in mid July with about 40 innings under his belt, he'd still have another 110 or so to pitch.

Next year, Chapman will be 25. The whole Verducci thing is mostly about kids who are still developping physically (23 and under per the theory). The gloves can come off and the 30 inning increase rule of thumb won't be nearly as important at age 25. You may need to pick some spots to limit him here and there to keep him strong, but there is no reason he couldn't make 32 starts in 2013.

I don't share your view of this rotation. I think they'll be fine with the guys on hand. Probably not top 4 or 5 in the league with GABP dragging them down, but middle of the pack which is actually pretty good in their park and their division. I also repeat that there is a real chance that Chapman is a low to mid 90's fastball without enough secondary stuff to fool hitters 3 times through the order as a starter. As I said several posts ago, some in this thread thinks its a foregone conclusion that Chapman will be a number 1 the minute he becomes a starter. I think there is a real chance he'll become a 5 innng guy who looks a lot like 2011 Edinson Volquez if he starts regularly. Thats really the crux of the disagreement. Chapman is becoming a great reliever. I have no idea what he'd be like as a starter. No need to go there until the need shows itself. If the rotation implodes make the move. If it continues to be strong, keep Chapman as a late inning destroyer.

puca
05-26-2012, 05:35 AM
I want the Reds to win 95+ games in 2012, go to the play-offs and go deep and hopefully win it all. IMO, getting league average from Bailey with Chapman in the pen is more likely to accomplish that than getting basically nothing from Bailey as a long reliever, Chapman moving into the rotation as a complete unknown who will be long past his inning limit and unavailable by September and the pen becoming seriously weaker. When the play-offs roll around, the Reds will be much more formidable with Cueto, Latos, Arroyo and Bailey with Chapman looming in the late innings than they will with Chapman on the inactive list because he's long past his innings limit and shut down.

That's another issue. If you really want Chapman getting the ball as a starter in the play-offs, moving him in the rotation now is pretty much a guarantee that it won't happen. Waiting until Bray and Masset come back keeps the pen strong and holds his innings down so if they would switch, it can last through the post-season. There just isn't much reason to switch now unless the equation changes either in the rotation with an injury or some one completely falling apart or in the pen with guys coming back reducing the need for Chapman down there

I'll worry about 2013 when 2012 is over at this point. I want to win everything in 2012.

The Reds will not be moving Chapman to the starting rotation anytime this year, they publically stated as much even before he became the closer. Now that he is closer the door is shut, locked and barred on that transition happening anytime in 2012. And barring some sort of long-term injury or offseason trade of a starter before spring traning next year, he will remain our closer in 2013.

mth123
05-26-2012, 07:45 AM
The Reds will not be moving Chapman to the starting rotation anytime this year, they publically stated as much even before he became the closer. Now that he is closer the door is shut, locked and barred on that transition happening anytime in 2012. And barring some sort of long-term injury or offseason trade of a starter before spring traning next year, he will remain our closer in 2013.

Yeah, I've read that. Not sure how much stock I put in it. This is coming from the same guys who said he'd be a starter this year. The only thing I know for sure is that they will re-evaluate as the situation changes (as they should). A starter goes down or completely falls apart and they get re-inforcements in the pen from Bray and Masset and they may change their mind again.

I do think that if the current 5 keep pitching reasonably well, Chapman will stay in the pen. I think that's the right choice if so.

Brutus
05-26-2012, 08:00 AM
The Reds will not be moving Chapman to the starting rotation anytime this year, they publically stated as much even before he became the closer. Now that he is closer the door is shut, locked and barred on that transition happening anytime in 2012. And barring some sort of long-term injury or offseason trade of a starter before spring traning next year, he will remain our closer in 2013.

You do remember, don't you, that the Reds have an option on Ryan Madson for next season? With the injury, it's pretty likely that the Reds will pick it up and Boras will agree to it.

puca
05-26-2012, 08:16 AM
Yeah, I've read that. Not sure how much stock I put in it. This is coming from the same guys who said he'd be a starter this year. The only thing I know for sure is that they will re-evaluate as the situation changes (as they should). A starter goes down or completely falls apart and they get re-inforcements in the pen from Bray and Masset and they may change their mind again.

I do think that if the current 5 keep pitching reasonably well, Chapman will stay in the pen. I think that's the right choice if so.

As soon as he was anointed closer the door on him starting in 2012 closed. A team just does not take their closer and stretch him out to be a starter mid-season - especially in a pennant race. Even when he was their go-to-setup guy it was unlikely to happen under any circumstance. They are just now publicly stating what has been pretty obvious for a while now.

Unfortunately it's unlikely that the 5 starters will stay healthy all season, so it's probably only a matter of time until we know for sure.

mth123
05-26-2012, 08:19 AM
You do remember, don't you, that the Reds have an option on Ryan Madson for next season? With the injury, it's pretty likely that the Reds will pick it up and Boras will agree to it.

Why would the Reds pick-up an $11 Million option on a guy coming off of injury? His TJ came in spring training and there is no guarantee he'll even be ready for opening day. If the Reds are going to keep him, its more likely they'll convert the buy-out into a base salary for an incentive laden deal. Boras probably won't get many offers until he shows he's healthy.

puca
05-26-2012, 08:20 AM
You do remember, don't you, that the Reds have an option on Ryan Madson for next season? With the injury, it's pretty likely that the Reds will pick it up and Boras will agree to it.

The option is for 11 million for a pitcher that will be coming off of major arm surgery. I think it is a long shot - especially when they have the 'best closer in baseball' - to think that the Reds to pick up that option. In fact I would think it would be insane.

puca
05-26-2012, 08:24 AM
Why would the Reds pick-up an $11 Million option on a guy coming off of injury? His TJ came in spring training and there is no guarantee he'll even be ready for opening day. If the Reds are going to keep him, its more likely they'll convert the buy-out into a base salary for an incentive laden deal. Boras probably won't get many offers until he shows he's healthy.

You beat me to it.

I suppose Madson could come back on an incentive deal. He gets the 2.5 million no matter what, so there is no conversion. He will be a free agent with 2.5 million in his pocket and will probably sign somewhere he has the chance to close .