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MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 12:17 AM
I didn't want to put this in the Scoreboard Thread so I think there should be thread dedicated to things going on in the central. What the schedule looks like for various teams, injury news, discussion of important up coming games, etc.


I'm looking at this weeks schedule and as bad as the Cards are playing right now, they could gain some ground on the Reds. Just by pure luck, the Cards are playing one of the worst teams in baseball, the Padres, while the Reds are playing probably the best team I have seen thus far this year in the Braves.

MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 12:19 AM
Also, don't look now but your Pittsburgh Pirates are only 3 games back. They play a tough match up early this week with the Mets, who are surprisingly decent.

Caveat Emperor
05-21-2012, 12:21 AM
They're the Pirates. They're a lock to lose 90 games from now until the sun expands. :)

PuffyPig
05-21-2012, 12:22 AM
If the Pirates beat the Cards or the Reds this season it's the fault of the Cards and the Reds.

They'll be very lucky to go .500 or anywhere close to it.

MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 12:24 AM
If the Pirates beat the Cards or the Reds this season it's the fault of the Cards and the Reds.

They'll be very lucky to go .500 or anywhere close to it.

They tend to give teams a tough time though the past couple of years. I, for one, am not going to overlook them especially with how bad the Central is this year. Of course, I'm the one who predicted the Astros were going to be a good team last year so what do I know?

MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 12:27 AM
I just noticed this looking at the overall standings. Here are what teams in the Central have done the last ten games:

Cardinals 2-8
Reds 5-5
Pittsburgh 5-5
Houston 4-6
Mil-Town 4-6
Baby Bears 2-8

This might be the NFC West of divisions in baseball. :beerme:

WVRedsFan
05-21-2012, 12:32 AM
The Pirates are playing way over their heads based on pitching. That probably won't last. I still hate and fear them because they can ruin a season. I knew the Cards weren't that good and the Reds that bad early on. And don't discount your next opponent, because they're tough at home.

MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 12:37 AM
The Pirates are playing way over their heads based on pitching. That probably won't last. I still hate and fear them because they can ruin a season. I knew the Cards weren't that good and the Reds that bad early on. And don't discount your next opponent, because they're tough at home.

The Padres are playing in St. Louis. It's an odd schedule that a team goes to the west coast then goes home the next series only to play another west coast team. I wonder if MLB just throws darts at a dartboard sometimes to pick which teams face each other.

WVRedsFan
05-21-2012, 12:40 AM
That is strange. I just assumed...

kaldaniels
05-21-2012, 12:40 AM
Put me down on the record as overlooking the Pirates. They don't scare me as an NL Central contender....this year.

The Operator
05-21-2012, 12:41 AM
The Pirates are -32 in run differential, Mike. I'm not too concerned about them, at least not right now.

If there's any dark horse in the NLC it's probably Houston, believe it or not. They are actually +3 in run differential right now, and have been on the plus side most of the season. I wouldn't rule them out.

MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 12:49 AM
I guess for me, I'm looking at things short term rather than long term. I know they probably won't even be a 3rd place team in the Central but for the short term, 3 games back is enough for me to take at least some notice of them.

WVPacman
05-21-2012, 12:54 AM
Put me down on the record as overlooking the Pirates. They don't scare me as an NL Central contender....this year.

I'll never over look the Pirates b/c they OWNED us last year.:laugh:

kaldaniels
05-21-2012, 01:10 AM
I'll never over look the Pirates b/c they OWNED us last year.:laugh:

Yeah that was hard to swallow but certainly possible in a small sample size. Now as for the Bucs winning the division (my point), not this year.

757690
05-21-2012, 01:12 AM
Don't overlook the Bucs! They are young, talented and hungry... Okay, they're young and hungry, but still, don't count them out. ;)

HeatherC1212
05-21-2012, 01:19 AM
The NL East is the division that will drive everyone crazy (I think all those teams are over or really close to .500 right now :eek: ) and I can't wait to be done with them. The Reds are all ready done with Washington and after this week, they'll add the Braves to that list, and thankfully they're now halfway done with the Mets and Marlins. I may be alone in this thinking but I will be extremely happy for the Reds to get through all those teams and leave them in the rear view mirror. Bring on anyone but them IMO, LOL :laugh:

Captain Hook
05-21-2012, 02:46 AM
The NL East is the division that will drive everyone crazy (I think all those teams are over or really close to .500 right now :eek: ) and I can't wait to be done with them. The Reds are all ready done with Washington and after this week, they'll add the Braves to that list, and thankfully they're now halfway done with the Mets and Marlins. I may be alone in this thinking but I will be extremely happy for the Reds to get through all those teams and leave them in the rear view mirror. Bring on anyone but them IMO, LOL :laugh:

If the Reds are in first or anywhere near the top after their 11 game west coast road trip right before AS weekend then the rest of the central's in some trouble.

Vottomatic
05-21-2012, 07:46 AM
The NL East is the division that will drive everyone crazy (I think all those teams are over or really close to .500 right now :eek: ) and I can't wait to be done with them. The Reds are all ready done with Washington and after this week, they'll add the Braves to that list, and thankfully they're now halfway done with the Mets and Marlins. I may be alone in this thinking but I will be extremely happy for the Reds to get through all those teams and leave them in the rear view mirror. Bring on anyone but them IMO, LOL :laugh:

It may help them GET to the playoffs, but it won't help them IN the playoffs. They'll still have to play probably Washington or the Braves, and definitely the Dodgers (Kershaw/Billingsley). And they didn't exactly handle any of those pitchers.

Without some bolstering of the lineup, I see 2010 playoffs all over again.

puca
05-21-2012, 08:36 AM
It may help them GET to the playoffs, but it won't help them IN the playoffs. They'll still have to play probably Washington or the Braves, and definitely the Dodgers (Kershaw/Billingsley). And they didn't exactly handle any of those pitchers.

Without some bolstering of the lineup, I see 2010 playoffs all over again.

I agree, however a rotation of (Chapman/Cueto/Latos), might give them a chance in any series. ;)

_Sir_Charles_
05-21-2012, 09:34 AM
It won't surprise me one bit if the Pirates finish over .500 and in second place this season. Not one bit. Their pitching is much better than people think it is. And their hitters have underperformed the past couple of seasons. They're not a bunch of bangers, but they're not as bad as they've shown either. Alvarez heating up will be a huge boon to them. McCutchen might just be in the MVP talk this season.

Reds will run away and hide. Cards will flounder. Pitching of late is what I actually expect from them, the bats WILL regress substantially. Astros will be exactly what we thought they'd be. Worst team in baseball by the end of the year.

The 2 teams I'm unsure of are the Cubs and Brewers. If the Brewers ever get healthy...they could go on a run. The Cubs...they've got so many players who have been bad for so long, you just never know when they'll regain their old form. If some do, they could be better than many thought.

MikeThierry
05-21-2012, 10:46 AM
Yes, the Cards have regressed but at the same time, it was just a bad 10 days for everyone. The defense, which has been a strong point most of the season, has been horrible, nobody in the bullpen can throw strikes, injuries, bad starting pitching. There's regression and then there's everything that could go wrong can. I believe every team in baseball has a stretch where they just can't put it together. Thus far, the Cards are on their bad stretch. I don't think the Cards will be this bad all season long though. As we also know, the Cards aren't afraid to make trades so if they are a floundering team by the All Star break yet only 5 or so games out, I would expect a trade of some kind.

RBA
05-21-2012, 02:13 PM
Yawn. Not concern about the Cards. Their time has past.

http://triblive.com/sports/1561041-85/game-runs-baseball-pitching-era-defense-pitchers-throwing-desmond-hitters


Steroid era in past, baseball returns to its roots

dougdirt
05-21-2012, 02:52 PM
I agree, however a rotation of (Chapman/Cueto/Latos), might give them a chance in any series. ;)

In 2010 our ERA in the playoffs was under 2.50 and it didn't do us an ounce of good.

cumberlandreds
05-21-2012, 03:02 PM
The easiest prediction about the NL Central is that the Astros will never ever be a contender to win the divison again.

It should come down to the Reds and Cards. The Brewers just have too many injuries. I don't know how serious all of their injuries are but if they get some of them back they could make a run. But it's doubtful. I think they miss Fielder way too much in that lineup.
The Pirates have decent pitching but not much pop to their lineup. Their pitching will come back to the pack and they will fade into 90 losses as usual before its all said and done. I won't even comment on the Astros and Cubs being contenders.
If the Cards can survive their injuries throughout the season they will win the divison. That's the key for them.
The Reds can win it but their hitting has got to pick up quite a bit. The pitching will come back some too when the weather really heats up. That's when hitting will have to pick them up. Should be a good race between the two and it may only take about 87 wins to take the division.

puca
05-21-2012, 03:16 PM
In 2010 our ERA in the playoffs was under 2.50 and it didn't do us an ounce of good.

Yet the bullpen didn't give up a single earned run and the closer never even pitched in the playoffs. Clearly the Reds would have won that series if the bullpen had been better.

The bullpen doesn't matter if the starting staff is not good enough to take you into the late innings with a lead. And with this offense the starting staff needs to be pretty darn awsome.

dougdirt
05-21-2012, 03:22 PM
Yet the bullpen didn't give up a single earned run and the closer never even pitched in the playoffs. Clearly the Reds would have won that series if the bullpen had been better.

The bullpen doesn't matter if the starting staff is not good enough to take you into the late innings with a lead. And with this offense the starting staff needs to be pretty darn awsome.

The offense was the problem then. Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs were the only guys to reach base three times in the series.

puca
05-21-2012, 03:41 PM
The offense was the problem then. Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs were the only guys to reach base three times in the series.

It is hard to trump 2 complete game shutouts in a 5 games series. You can blame our offense or credit their starting pitching. Probably some of both is in line.

Our bullpen actually gave up 1 ER in that series (Masset in game 2), but only one in 12 2/3 innings. Meanwhile the Phillies starters gave up 3 ER in 23 innings. Dominant starters > dominant relievers.

elfmanvt07
05-21-2012, 03:56 PM
I think our pitching will be enough to take the division, in the end. All 5 starters in the rotation have BABIPs above league average right now.

Tom Servo
05-21-2012, 03:57 PM
I will never write off the Cardinals.

elfmanvt07
05-21-2012, 04:01 PM
I will never write off the Cardinals.

Not implying that you should.

puca
05-21-2012, 04:05 PM
I will never write off the Cardinals.

Me either. They had no business being the WS champs last year and yet they were.

Vottomatic
05-21-2012, 07:13 PM
I think the Cardinals have some payroll flexibility. Something the Reds don't have.

OnBaseMachine
05-21-2012, 07:28 PM
I will never write off the Cardinals.

Me either, and I don't understand why some people continue to do so.

MikeThierry
05-23-2012, 06:41 PM
Cardinals place Matt Carpenter on the DL. Injuries were a big concern with the Cards because of the older players they have but if you look at who they have on the DL, guys like Criag, Jay, McClellan, etc. are young. Very odd stretch of injuries for the Cards. Reds should, and are, take advantage of their bad luck right now.

RedlegJake
05-23-2012, 10:03 PM
Don't overlook the fact the fact that the Cards had some guys tearing it up to start the year while the Reds had exactly the opposite, especially for their hitters. No way the Cards were as dominant as they started, no way the Reds as bad as they started. I expect a darn dogfight all year. The Cards have a bit more talent and a better offense - the Reds, imo, have better pitching, ie slightly better starting and a much better BP, and a slightly better defense. The Cards BP could be their achilles heel, and the health of some of their older stars. The Reds collective ability to get on base is their weakness. Overall I like both teams better than anybody in the Central and think they'll slowly and surely pull away from the rest of the division together.

Just like the Cubs always seem to find a way to blow it - I never write the Cards off because they always seem to find a way to get in it.

PuffyPig
05-24-2012, 12:21 AM
WHile I would never count out the Cards, each of Furcal, Molina, Freese, Beltran and Jay started the year and have maintained (other than Freese) an OPS that is quite a bit higher than their career averages.

Garcia,Lohse, Lynn and Westbrook had ERA's in the 1's, and their xFIP indicated that wasn't going to continue. It didn't, and the Cards recently went throough a stretch where they gave up 6 or more runs in 9 out of 10 games. And that stretch included 6 games against the Giants and the Kempless Dodgers, who are offensively inept. Only a visit by the punchless Pads solved that problem.

The Cards will go as far as their general health allows them to go.

BTW, the Reds have the 9th best record in the majors (on pace for 90 wins), and are currently in a playoff spot.

membengal
05-24-2012, 08:06 AM
I think, if I saw a twitter note right yesterday, that the Reds have now played 29 games so far this year against teams with winning records.

The Cardinals have played 13 such games.

Do with that what you will.

mdccclxix
05-24-2012, 08:20 AM
I think, if I saw a twitter note right yesterday, that the Reds have now played 29 games so far this year against teams with winning records.

The Cardinals have played 13 such games.

Do with that what you will.

The knock on the 2010 team was they couldn't quite compete with the best teams. They were always just short. Then last year, they evened the record against winning teams, but fell short against bad teams. This year, they are fighting off good teams, and really need to handle their business against Pit, Hou, and Chicago. And Colorado this weekend too.

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2012, 10:09 AM
How we lookin'?

smith288
05-24-2012, 10:42 AM
How we lookin'?
Wore some gap jeans today. Lost a little weight so I had to put on a belt. You?

cumberlandreds
05-24-2012, 10:49 AM
I think, if I saw a twitter note right yesterday, that the Reds have now played 29 games so far this year against teams with winning records.

The Cardinals have played 13 such games.

Do with that what you will.

The Reds have a nice stretch of losing teams coming up. 12 straight against the Rocks,Pirates,Astros and Cubs. Also the Tigers after that who have to be a big disappointment at this time.

WildcatFan
05-24-2012, 11:52 AM
The Reds have a nice stretch of losing teams coming up. 12 straight against the Rocks,Pirates,Astros and Cubs. Also the Tigers after that who have to be a big disappointment at this time.

Cards have 13 of 20 coming up against teams with winning records. They also have four against the Phillies and they're at Houston for three.

MikeThierry
05-24-2012, 11:58 AM
The Reds have a nice stretch of losing teams coming up. 12 straight against the Rocks,Pirates,Astros and Cubs. Also the Tigers after that who have to be a big disappointment at this time.

Often though, a lot of those teams play better when good teams face them. The Astros and Pirates have the ability to come up and bite teams. I think with the Cubs, you can always throw out the record because they seem to play divisional opponents tough.


Garcia,Lohse, Lynn and Westbrook had ERA's in the 1's, and their xFIP indicated that wasn't going to continue. It didn't, and the Cards recently went throough a stretch where they gave up 6 or more runs in 9 out of 10 games. And that stretch included 6 games against the Giants and the Kempless Dodgers, who are offensively inept. Only a visit by the punchless Pads solved that problem.


Puffy, I understand regression to the means but what happened to the Cards the past 15 games or so isn't really regression. It's a stretch where nothing went right. A bad couple of weeks happen where the bullpen is shot, starting pitching isn't getting it done, defense is sloppy, clutch hitting isn't there, etc. The Reds had a horrible start where the offense was bad and starting pitching wasn't good. The Reds fixed that and now they are on a run. I'd expect the Cards to play better and not give up 6 runs every night. Sure, Lynn has regressed but last night's start (3 runs in 6 innings) is more on par with the production Lynn will probably give the Cards more than the 6 runs in 9 of 10 games.

traderumor
05-24-2012, 12:02 PM
Often though, a lot of those teams play better when good teams face them. The Astros and Pirates have the ability to come up and bite teams. I think with the Cubs, you can always throw out the record because they seem to play divisional opponents tough.



Puffy, I understand regression to the means but what happened to the Cards the past 15 games or so isn't really regression. It's a stretch where nothing went right. A bad couple of weeks happen where the bullpen is shot, starting pitching isn't getting it done, defense is sloppy, clutch hitting isn't there, etc. The Reds had a horrible start where the offense was bad and starting pitching wasn't good. The Reds fixed that and now they are on a run. I'd expect the Cards to play better and not give up 6 runs every night. Sure, Lynn has regressed but last night's start (3 runs in 6 innings) is more on par with the production Lynn will probably give the Cards more than the 6 runs in 9 of 10 games.All that happened for the Cards was the good fortune to have the worst team in the league come to their park for 3. The squad has big problems that are going to make it tough for them to have a winning record when all is said and done, let alone be a contender.

They have a history of overcoming seemingly insurmountable roster issues, but sometimes a team's luck just runs out.

_Sir_Charles_
05-24-2012, 12:13 PM
It's a stretch where nothing went right.

Yes it was. However, the first part of the season was a stretch where nothing went wrong. So in a way it IS a regression to the mean. They were playing way over their heads. Now during this recent stretch, they're playing well below what they would normally do. They're somewhere in between. With the injuries, I think they're closer to what they've shown recently.

MikeThierry
05-24-2012, 01:20 PM
Yes it was. However, the first part of the season was a stretch where nothing went wrong. So in a way it IS a regression to the mean. They were playing way over their heads. Now during this recent stretch, they're playing well below what they would normally do. They're somewhere in between. With the injuries, I think they're closer to what they've shown recently.

Even with those injuries, they still have Beltran, a hot Furcal, Molina, and Matt Holliday in the lineup. It's still a pretty good lineup even when guys like Craig and Jay are out. Matt Holliday, after a slow start, has hit .330, .980 OPS in the past 28 days.

I'm not writing the obituary on the Cards just yet. Their death is a bit premature. It's going to be a dog fight all year long with the Reds.

PuffyPig
05-24-2012, 01:57 PM
Puffy, I understand regression to the means but what happened to the Cards the past 15 games or so isn't really regression. It's a stretch where nothing went right. A bad couple of weeks happen where the bullpen is shot, starting pitching isn't getting it done, defense is sloppy, clutch hitting isn't there, etc. The Reds had a horrible start where the offense was bad and starting pitching wasn't good. The Reds fixed that and now they are on a run.


I think you don't understand "regression to the mean" becuase what you described is a perfect example of it.

Tne Reds didn't fix anything. They ran the same players out there. Those players simply started to regress to their mean.

The Cards didn't change their starters or their relievers. Those pitchers were simply not going to enjoy the benefits of a .256 BABIP all season. When BABIP went against them (the Cards are now at .307 I believe) those same pitchers were no longer getting it done.

Both are poster boys for "regression to the mean".

MikeThierry
05-24-2012, 02:34 PM
I think you don't understand "regression to the mean" becuase what you described is a perfect example of it.

Tne Reds didn't fix anything. They ran the same players out there. Those players simply started to regress to their mean.

The Cards didn't change their starters or their relievers. Those pitchers were simply not going to enjoy the benefits of a .256 BABIP all season. When BABIP went against them (the Cards are now at .307 I believe) those same pitchers were no longer getting it done.

Both are poster boys for "regression to the mean".

This is why I hate arguing with people who are major proponents of sabermetrics. They are generally pompus and arrogant in their debates. I've seen it so many times where person that heavily proponent of SABR stats belittles the person they argue with with terms such as "you don't understand this, it's too complicated for you, etc". Of course I understand what "regression to the means", means. Regression to the means often refers to a measurement that on the first hand, is extreme but on the second measurement data becomes closer to the average. If the second measurement is extreme the other way (which I would argue is what the Cardinals have experienced as of late), generally the the average is closer to the first measurement.

Yes, the Cardinals pitching staff was pitching out of it's mind the first month of the season. However, what happened to them the past week or so is an extreme the other way. The great defense that the Cards had in the first month, went extreme the to the other way where the Cards bobbled the ball on routine plays that they were making before hand. The Cards aren't the team that pitched out of their minds in the first month but they aren't also the team that is going to give up the amount of runs they did the past 10-14 days. In fact, I'm going to lean more towards an average of what they did the first full month of the season than the the small sample size of 10 or so days of recent.

The fact that they have a decent amount of high quality hitters in their lineup would indicate that they will still score a lot of runs this year. When we talk about regression to the means of a guy like Beltran would indicate that there is still going to be a lot of production from him in the Cards lineup. Matt Holliday, regression to the means, would indicate that he is still a high producing left fielder in today's baseball (Ryan Braun has been the only left fielder more productive than him since he joined the Cards in 2009).

bucksfan2
05-24-2012, 02:49 PM
This is why I hate arguing with people who are major proponents of sabermetrics. They are generally pompus and arrogant in their debates. I've seen it so many times where person that heavily proponent of SABR stats belittles the person they argue with with terms such as "you don't understand this, it's too complicated for you, etc". Of course I understand what "regression to the means", means. Regression to the means often refers to a measurement that on the first hand, is extreme but on the second measurement data becomes closer to the average. If the second measurement is extreme the other way (which I would argue is what the Cardinals have experienced as of late), generally the the average is closer to the first measurement.

Yes, the Cardinals pitching staff was pitching out of it's mind the first month of the season. However, what happened to them the past week or so is an extreme the other way. The great defense that the Cards had in the first month, went extreme the to the other way where the Cards bobbled the ball on routine plays that they were making before hand. The Cards aren't the team that pitched out of their minds in the first month but they aren't also the team that is going to give up the amount of runs they did the past 10-14 days. In fact, I'm going to lean more towards an average of what they did the first full month of the season than the the small sample size of 10 or so days of recent.

The fact that they have a decent amount of high quality hitters in their lineup would indicate that they will still score a lot of runs this year. When we talk about regression to the means of a guy like Beltran would indicate that there is still going to be a lot of production from him in the Cards lineup. Matt Holliday, regression to the means, would indicate that he is still a high producing left fielder in today's baseball (Ryan Braun has been the only left fielder more productive than him since he joined the Cards in 2009).

Im not a saber guy at all and what you just described is regression to the mean. Its like when Chris Welsh used to say "look at the back of the baseball card and thats what your going to get". When you have a team that is pitching out of their mind did their actual skill change? Are they a better pitcher than they have shown over the course of their career? The thing is whenever someone starts out hot you know they are going to slow down.

When David Freese started out the season hitting .450 and slugging 5000 you knew that wasn't going to keep happening didn't you? And when he went into a slump you would have to think the offense would struggle a little bit. When a player is playing above or below his career averages you know that by the end of the season they are going to be pretty similar to those averages don't you?

I give the Cards credit because they always seem to be able to plug guys in who contribute. But I said it early this season and I will reiterate it, I think the Reds run away with this thing. The first domino happened when Carpenter went down and hasn't returned. You had to expect something like that out of Carpenter because LaRussa rode him like a horse last year. Those things always end up catching up. You also knew that health would be pivital for the Cards this season, and since they were counting on injury prone aging stars, it should have come to no surprise that Berkman may be done for the year. As the season progresses I see both Furcal and Beltran missing some time and I also see Beltran cooling off. The thing with older players is that as the season drags along it begins to take a toll on their body.

PuffyPig
05-24-2012, 03:17 PM
Of course I understand what "regression to the means", means.

You say you do, but your whole post then suggests what has happened to the Cards isn't "regression to the mean", but simply hot players cooling off etc.?

That's regression to the mean!!!!

traderumor
05-24-2012, 03:23 PM
This is why I hate arguing with people who are major proponents of sabermetrics. They are generally pompus and arrogant in their debates. I've seen it so many times where person that heavily proponent of SABR stats belittles the person they argue with with terms such as "you don't understand this, it's too complicated for you, etc". Of course I understand what "regression to the means", means. Regression to the means often refers to a measurement that on the first hand, is extreme but on the second measurement data becomes closer to the average. If the second measurement is extreme the other way (which I would argue is what the Cardinals have experienced as of late), generally the the average is closer to the first measurement.

Yes, the Cardinals pitching staff was pitching out of it's mind the first month of the season. However, what happened to them the past week or so is an extreme the other way. The great defense that the Cards had in the first month, went extreme the to the other way where the Cards bobbled the ball on routine plays that they were making before hand. The Cards aren't the team that pitched out of their minds in the first month but they aren't also the team that is going to give up the amount of runs they did the past 10-14 days. In fact, I'm going to lean more towards an average of what they did the first full month of the season than the the small sample size of 10 or so days of recent.

The fact that they have a decent amount of high quality hitters in their lineup would indicate that they will still score a lot of runs this year. When we talk about regression to the means of a guy like Beltran would indicate that there is still going to be a lot of production from him in the Cards lineup. Matt Holliday, regression to the means, would indicate that he is still a high producing left fielder in today's baseball (Ryan Braun has been the only left fielder more productive than him since he joined the Cards in 2009).Mike, I reiterate what others are saying, that you just described "regression to the mean" as occuring both with the Reds and Cards. It is the hot and cold of a season, sometimes it happens immediately, sometimes its gradual, but it happens.

This is a random game with a lot of events that allow randomness to settle around a baseline. "Everything goes right vs. everything goes wrong" is a part of the randomness of the game that is also described by the term "regression to the mean."

Just like I am still hopeful for the Reds offense and just hoping that the bats don't wake up at the time the arms go to sleep. But I am still thinking the Reds offense will end up above average before the year's over because of the members of the offense. Its a hard sell right now, and sometimes I'm even starting to wonder, but it will still most likely happen.

BTW, I didn't see anything out of line with PuffyPig's post.

PuffyPig
05-24-2012, 04:02 PM
But I am still thinking the Reds offense will end up above average before the year's over because of the members of the offense. Its a hard sell right now, and sometimes I'm even starting to wonder, but it will still most likely happen.



What would it take for the Reds offense to be "above average in the NL"?

Well, there are 16 teams, so the 7th place team is "above average".

If we had scored 13 more runs, we'd be tied for 7th in runs per game.

That's how close we are, and I'm guessing we can make up that difference in the next 119 games.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 04:05 PM
This is why I hate arguing with people who are major proponents of sabermetrics. They are generally pompus and arrogant in their debates. I've seen it so many times where person that heavily proponent of SABR stats belittles the person they argue with with terms such as "you don't understand this, it's too complicated for you, etc". Of course I understand what "regression to the means", means. Regression to the means often refers to a measurement that on the first hand, is extreme but on the second measurement data becomes closer to the average. If the second measurement is extreme the other way (which I would argue is what the Cardinals have experienced as of late), generally the the average is closer to the first measurement.

Yes, the Cardinals pitching staff was pitching out of it's mind the first month of the season. However, what happened to them the past week or so is an extreme the other way. The great defense that the Cards had in the first month, went extreme the to the other way where the Cards bobbled the ball on routine plays that they were making before hand. The Cards aren't the team that pitched out of their minds in the first month but they aren't also the team that is going to give up the amount of runs they did the past 10-14 days. In fact, I'm going to lean more towards an average of what they did the first full month of the season than the the small sample size of 10 or so days of recent.

The fact that they have a decent amount of high quality hitters in their lineup would indicate that they will still score a lot of runs this year. When we talk about regression to the means of a guy like Beltran would indicate that there is still going to be a lot of production from him in the Cards lineup. Matt Holliday, regression to the means, would indicate that he is still a high producing left fielder in today's baseball (Ryan Braun has been the only left fielder more productive than him since he joined the Cards in 2009).

Not to pile on, Mike, but like others, I read your post and basically took away that you agreed the Cardinals were regressing to the mean lol

traderumor
05-24-2012, 04:35 PM
What would it take for the Reds offense to be "above average in the NL"?

Well, there are 16 teams, so the 7th place team is "above average".

If we had scored 13 more runs, we'd be tied for 7th in runs per game.

That's how close we are, and I'm guessing we can make up that difference in the next 119 games.I would compare to league average RS of 4.02 and see that the Reds are at about 3.8 when I checked yesterday. Yea, its not much, but I'd also like to see them top 5 as a goal.

Update: Reds are currently 14 runs below "league average"

PuffyPig
05-24-2012, 05:12 PM
I would compare to league average RS of 4.02 and see that the Reds are at about 3.8 when I checked yesterday. Yea, its not much, but I'd also like to see them top 5 as a goal.

Update: Reds are currently 14 runs below "league average"

We've also played one less game than league average.

_Sir_Charles_
05-24-2012, 06:10 PM
Even with those injuries, they still have Beltran, a hot Furcal, Molina, and Matt Holliday in the lineup. It's still a pretty good lineup even when guys like Craig and Jay are out. Matt Holliday, after a slow start, has hit .330, .980 OPS in the past 28 days.

I'm not writing the obituary on the Cards just yet. Their death is a bit premature. It's going to be a dog fight all year long with the Reds.

Will Beltran stay healthy. Doubtful.
Will Furcal produce even close to the level he is now. Doubtful.
Will Molina produce at his current level. Doubtful.
Holliday...money in the bank.

I see regression up and down that lineup coming due. Several starters too.

757690
05-24-2012, 09:38 PM
Jake WestBrook does not regress to the mean tonight, instead he just gives up 4 runs in the first to the Phillies. ;)

Orenda
05-24-2012, 09:47 PM
Will Beltran stay healthy. Doubtful.
Will Furcal produce even close to the level he is now. Doubtful.
Will Molina produce at his current level. Doubtful.
Holliday...money in the bank.

I see regression up and down that lineup coming due. Several starters too.

I don't know, in terms of Beltran and Furcal, they might be progressing back to there former means now that there healthy. Molina's a great defensive catcher, but he has shown progress with the bat over the years.

Tony Cloninger
05-24-2012, 10:50 PM
Look John Kruk said a few days ago....that if the Cards do not win the division....the Brewers will. So case closed here per the guy who used to be funny and now just really grinds my gears.

Tony Cloninger
05-24-2012, 10:52 PM
I don't know, in terms of Beltran and Furcal, they might be progressing back to there former means now that there healthy. Molina's a great defensive catcher, but he has shown progress with the bat over the years.

Beltran and Furcal have not hit this good....if ever, in years. But I guess someone had to drink Mark Mac's Magic Man Juice.....since Berkman used his all up last year.

oneupper
05-25-2012, 07:01 AM
Look John Kruk said a few days ago....that if the Cards do not win the division....the Brewers will. So case closed here per the guy who used to be funny and now just really grinds my gears.

BTW, What's with the Brewers? Like Kruk, I totally expected them to be in the race in a big way. Injuries? Slumps? Bad Luck?
Will they "progress" to mean and make a run?

(This is a NL Central discussion, not a Cardinal discussion). :D

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 10:10 AM
Not to pile on, Mike, but like others, I read your post and basically took away that you agreed the Cardinals were regressing to the mean lol

My point is that I don't think a bad extreme in a week or so time frame is evidence that the Cards are "regressing to the mean". I think there has to be a prolonged length of bad play to really determine if it's truly regression or just a blip on the radar. I don't feel that a bad week wipes out a whole month of sample size that the Cards have put together. If by June 25th, the Cards are playing exactly like they're playing now, then I think it can be determined that last week was the true start of their regression.



Will Beltran stay healthy. Doubtful.
Will Furcal produce even close to the level he is now. Doubtful.
Will Molina produce at his current level. Doubtful.
Holliday...money in the bank.

I see regression up and down that lineup coming due. Several starters too.


Molina produced at his current level last year so I don't see why he couldn't keep this up. He is just like his brothers who developed late in their career. If you look at his numbers since 2008, he has been one of the more productive offensive catchers in the game (2010 was admittedly a down year).

You're also banking a lot on the hope that Beltran won't stay healthy. He played in 142 games last season. I also wasn't surprised to see him hit better with the Cards simply because Busch Stadium is a much more hitter friendly park than what he experienced in New York or San Francisco.

You're also right that there is regression coming within the starting pitching. Lynn is starting to regress to the point where I thought he would. I expected him to give the Cardinals 7 innings and give up between 3-4 runs per outing. His last couple of starts have bore that out. Still, I'm fine with what he's giving them. Waino looks like his fast ball speed is coming back and he looked very sharp in his last outing. Garcia has had two very good starts in a row and it looks like he's figured something out with his delivery. Jake Westbrook is Jake Westbrook. I still don't know what kind of Lohse they will get. Will they get the "searching for contract" Lohse that we saw in 2008? Who knows. You're right to say that there is regression in the rotation but I see regression towards the good and regression towards the bad.

Brutus
05-25-2012, 10:24 AM
My point is that I don't think a bad extreme in a week or so time frame is evidence that the Cards are "regressing to the mean". I think there has to be a prolonged length of bad play to really determine if it's truly regression or just a blip on the radar. I don't feel that a bad week wipes out a whole month of sample size that the Cards have put together. If by June 25th, the Cards are playing exactly like they're playing now, then I think it can be determined that last week was the true start of their regression.




Molina produced at his current level last year so I don't see why he couldn't keep this up. He is just like his brothers who developed late in their career. If you look at his numbers since 2008, he has been one of the more productive offensive catchers in the game (2010 was admittedly a down year).

You're also banking a lot on the hope that Beltran won't stay healthy. He played in 142 games last season. I also wasn't surprised to see him hit better with the Cards simply because Busch Stadium is a much more hitter friendly park than what he experienced in New York or San Francisco.

You're also right that there is regression coming within the starting pitching. Lynn is starting to regress to the point where I thought he would. I expected him to give the Cardinals 7 innings and give up between 3-4 runs per outing. His last couple of starts have bore that out. Still, I'm fine with what he's giving them. Waino looks like his fast ball speed is coming back and he looked very sharp in his last outing. Garcia has had two very good starts in a row and it looks like he's figured something out with his delivery. Jake Westbrook is Jake Westbrook. I still don't know what kind of Lohse they will get. Will they get the "searching for contract" Lohse that we saw in 2008? Who knows. You're right to say that there is regression in the rotation but I see regression towards the good and regression towards the bad.

You said yourself they weren't going to keep up the pace offensively or defensively they were on. So by your own admission, they were going to regress. Wouldn't it be safe to assume, then, when they went into a slump that by very nature was the regression we would expect?

Tony Cloninger
05-25-2012, 10:28 AM
BTW, What's with the Brewers? Like Kruk, I totally expected them to be in the race in a big way. Injuries? Slumps? Bad Luck?
Will they "progress" to mean and make a run?

(This is a NL Central discussion, not a Cardinal discussion). :D


Maybe all this talk about regression and corrections.....people should worry about them....since they are due for corrections to the positive way.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2012, 10:37 AM
Molina produced at his current level last year so I don't see why he couldn't keep this up. He is just like his brothers who developed late in their career. If you look at his numbers since 2008, he has been one of the more productive offensive catchers in the game (2010 was admittedly a down year).

Last year was a career year for him. His OPS alone was 100 points better than his career average. This year it's 170 points better. No, he won't keep this up. I'm not saying he's bad or anything. Just that he's playing over his head.


You're also banking a lot on the hope that Beltran won't stay healthy. He played in 142 games last season. I also wasn't surprised to see him hit better with the Cards simply because Busch Stadium is a much more hitter friendly park than what he experienced in New York or San Francisco.

And no, I'm not "banking" on it. I'll expect him to produce when he's in there. But looking at his career, the odds are better for him than for many others that he'll hit the DL this year. If he doesn't, it'll help them. But not enough to beat the Reds IMO. I still think we win over 100 and run away with the division.


You're also right that there is regression coming within the starting pitching. Lynn is starting to regress to the point where I thought he would. I expected him to give the Cardinals 7 innings and give up between 3-4 runs per outing. His last couple of starts have bore that out. Still, I'm fine with what he's giving them. Waino looks like his fast ball speed is coming back and he looked very sharp in his last outing. Garcia has had two very good starts in a row and it looks like he's figured something out with his delivery. Jake Westbrook is Jake Westbrook. I still don't know what kind of Lohse they will get. Will they get the "searching for contract" Lohse that we saw in 2008? Who knows. You're right to say that there is regression in the rotation but I see regression towards the good and regression towards the bad.

Again, don't get me wrong. They've got good pitching...just not as good as their current numbers indicate. As for the bullpen, I think they're UNDER-performing right now.

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 11:07 AM
Last year was a career year for him. His OPS alone was 100 points better than his career average. This year it's 170 points better. No, he won't keep this up. I'm not saying he's bad or anything. Just that he's playing over his head.


Don't you think that is a bit deceiving when you consider that for the first 3 or 4 years of his career he was a horrible hitter? In his first 3 full years, he averaged about a 69 OPS+. Since 09, he has averaged over a 101 OPS+ (not including this year). It's clear, again if you look at recent history, that this is the type of hitter he has developed into.

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 11:11 AM
Maybe all this talk about regression and corrections.....people should worry about them....since they are due for corrections to the positive way.

I don't see it with the Brewers. They seem like a fundamentally flawed team with the injuries that they have experienced. Their pitching is OK but I have never been a huge fan of Grienke. Yo is probably their only consistent pitcher they have in the rotation.

PuffyPig
05-25-2012, 11:12 AM
Waino looks like his fast ball speed is coming back and he looked very sharp in his last outing.


I actually think Waino has pitched better than his actual results this year.

But I don't beelive he was any faster in the Pads game, he was sitting in the high 80's IIRC.

The Pads lineup resembled a poor AAA team that day, so I'm interested to see how he fairs against a better hitting lineup.

I thought both Lynn and Garcia didn't look particularly good against the Pads, especially Lynn, who gave up 3 early runs, and hung in despite giving up a ton of baserunners and a number of long outs to a punchless lineup.
He looks like he's wearing down already.

Other than the 3 game series vs. the Pads, the Cards have given up 6 or more runs in something like 10 of their last 11 games. Even with a ton of injuries to their hitters, they continue to score lots of runs.

But the Cards will go as far as their pitching takes them. But you can generally say that about any team.

Tony Cloninger
05-25-2012, 11:14 AM
Last year was a career year for him. His OPS alone was 100 points better than his career average. This year it's 170 points better. No, he won't keep this up. I'm not saying he's bad or anything. Just that he's playing over his head.



And no, I'm not "banking" on it. I'll expect him to produce when he's in there. But looking at his career, the odds are better for him than for many others that he'll hit the DL this year. If he doesn't, it'll help them. But not enough to beat the Reds IMO. I still think we win over 100 and run away with the division.



Again, don't get me wrong. They've got good pitching...just not as good as their current numbers indicate. As for the bullpen, I think they're UNDER-performing right now.



Man...I am confident....but 100 games? Not with the peaks and valleys that Stubbs, Bruce and Cozart and probably Frazier are going to have.

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 11:18 AM
I actually think Waino has pitched better than his actual results this year.

But I don't beelive he was any faster in the Pads game, he was sitting in the high 80's IIRC.

The Pads lineup resembled a poor AAA team that day, so I'm interested to see how he fairs against a better hitting lineup.

I thought both Lynn and Garcia didn't look particularly good against the Pads, especially Lynn, who gave up 3 early runs, and hung in despite giving up a ton of baserunners and a number of long outs to a punchless lineup.
He looks like he's wearing down already.

Other than the 3 game series vs. the Pads, the Cards have given up 6 or more runs in something like 10 of their last 11 games. Even with a ton of injuries to their hitters, they continue to score lots of runs.

But the Cards will go as far as their pitching takes them. But you can generally say that about any team.

It's also fair to say that the defense really let them down in a lot of those games as well. When watching these games the past week or so, I had horrible flash backs of last year and Ryan Theriot booting routine plays. I also feel that Jay not being in the lineup is huge. He has become one of the better defensive CFers in the game and you could tell the Cards missed his defensive ability in many of those games. Balls were dropping into areas that are normally caught by Jay.

As far as Waino is concerned, his cutter was averaging in the high 80's last game, which it wasn't most of the season and his regular fast ball was around 91-92 last game. For a period of time, his fastball was in the upper
80's. His breaking pitches also looked sharp. I know they were the Padres but an competent offense would have had trouble with him as well.

klw
05-25-2012, 11:18 AM
Maybe all this talk about regression and corrections.....people should worry about them....since they are due for corrections to the positive way.

Brewers and Reds both have team BABIP of .282 which is well under the league average but the Brewers' BABIP has improved greatly the last couple of weeks. St Louis still way up there.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2012-advanced-batting.shtml


Tm R/G Outs RC RC/G AIR BAbip ▾ BA lgBA OBP lgOBP SLG lgSLG OPS lgOPS OPS+ OWn% BtRuns BtWins TotA SecA ISO PwrSpd
NYM 4.16 1192 204 4.6 93 .324 .259 .251 .334 .318 .374 .394 .707 .712 100 .512 5.2 0.4 .640 .228 .115 22.0
STL 5.33 1207 266 5.9 97 .322 .280 .255 .346 .323 .462 .401 .809 .724 122 .625 47.2 4.5 .778 .294 .183 43.1
LAD 4.57 1161 217 5.0 96 .316 .270 .254 .341 .322 .416 .399 .757 .721 110 .552 22.7 2.1 .691 .254 .146 26.8
ARI 4.18 1208 203 4.5 103 .310 .255 .263 .328 .332 .391 .414 .719 .746 93 .504 -13.2 -1.4 .668 .255 .137 36.0
PHI 4.09 1239 213 4.6 100 .307 .267 .260 .321 .328 .393 .408 .714 .737 94 .514 -15.5 -1.7 .650 .217 .126 36.0
ATL 4.87 1241 225 4.9 98 .303 .260 .258 .326 .326 .406 .405 .732 .731 100 .538 -0.0 -0.1 .681 .256 .146 37.4
SFG 4.09 1237 204 4.4 91 .301 .257 .247 .319 .314 .380 .388 .699 .702 100 .495 2.5 0.1 .630 .223 .123 29.5
LgAvg 4.11 1205 200 4.4 98 .297 .250 .258 .317 .326 .390 .405 .707 .731 94 .497 -12 0 .646 .245 .140 34
CHC 3.52 1204 181 4.0 98 .293 .245 .256 .305 .325 .375 .403 .679 .728 87 .453 -28.1 -3.0 .593 .216 .130 30.5
WSN 3.70 1194 193 4.3 99 .293 .243 .259 .314 .327 .391 .406 .705 .734 92 .486 -16.9 -1.8 .643 .253 .148 30.8
HOU 4.14 1186 184 4.2 98 .290 .244 .256 .313 .325 .369 .403 .682 .728 88 .467 -26.2 -2.7 .621 .234 .125 33.5
MIA 3.93 1229 198 4.3 102 .287 .243 .262 .313 .331 .377 .412 .690 .743 86 .484 -31.6 -3.3 .646 .260 .133 42.5
SDP 3.26 1247 170 3.7 92 .285 .226 .250 .305 .317 .336 .392 .641 .708 82 .409 -31.9 -3.3 .580 .234 .110 24.6
CIN 3.89 1195 192 4.3 101 .282 .238 .261 .304 .330 .398 .410 .702 .740 89 .483 -24.1 -2.5 .642 .259 .160 26.9
COL 4.86 1153 203 4.7 112 .282 .250 .276 .318 .347 .419 .434 .736 .781 88 .525 -28.3 -2.9 .690 .274 .169 34.0
MIL 4.34 1207 208 4.6 101 .282 .240 .261 .312 .330 .409 .410 .720 .740 94 .515 -15.2 -1.7 .674 .272 .168 38.7
PIT 2.86 1186 134 3.0 95 .267 .217 .253 .266 .321 .346 .398 .612 .718 70 .329 -59.6 -6.1 .515 .196 .129 24.6
4.11 19286 3195 4.4 98 .297 .250 .258 .317 .326 .390 .405 .707 .731 94 .497 -212.8 -23.2 .646 .245 .140 538.3

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 11:22 AM
St. Louis had a pretty high BAbip last year as well. They have many hitters in that lineup that have naturally high BAbip's so it would make sense.

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 11:23 AM
Looking at that chart, it's surprising to see Philly have that high of a BAbip yet they struggle to score runs.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2012, 11:26 AM
Don't you think that is a bit deceiving when you consider that for the first 3 or 4 years of his career he was a horrible hitter? In his first 3 full years, he averaged about a 69 OPS+. Since 09, he has averaged over a 101 OPS+ (not including this year). It's clear, again if you look at recent history, that this is the type of hitter he has developed into.

I agree completely when you say that he's improved as a hitter over the long haul. He has. No doubt. But here's the question...when does that stop? 100 ops bump last year. Another 70 point bump this year. So I guess he's Josh Hamilton next season? What I'd expect from him this year is right around a 100 ops+. So yeah, I expect him to come back to earth...noticably.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2012, 11:28 AM
Man...I am confident....but 100 games? Not with the peaks and valleys that Stubbs, Bruce and Cozart and probably Frazier are going to have.

Yep. :O) I picked 102 at the start of the year. I don't flip-flop. *grin*

I think we'll see monster years from Bruce, Votto, Bailey & Latos.

PuffyPig
05-25-2012, 11:42 AM
Man...I am confident....but 100 games? Not with the peaks and valleys that Stubbs, Bruce and Cozart and probably Frazier are going to have.

We are currently on pace for 92 wins. Few teams ever win 100 games anymore, but I would think 96 is certainly within reach if our starting pitching contiunues to shine. Admittedly a big if.

MikeThierry
05-25-2012, 11:50 AM
I agree completely when you say that he's improved as a hitter over the long haul. He has. No doubt. But here's the question...when does that stop? 100 ops bump last year. Another 70 point bump this year. So I guess he's Josh Hamilton next season? What I'd expect from him this year is right around a 100 ops+. So yeah, I expect him to come back to earth...noticably.


I wouldn't be shocked to see Molina average around a .850 OPS in the remainder of his prime years. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if this was his first 20 HR year of his career. If he can produce at those levles, the contract he just signed would certainly be great value for the Cardinals.

PuffyPig
05-25-2012, 12:04 PM
I wouldn't be shocked to see Molina average around a .850 OPS in the remainder of his prime years. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if this was his first 20 HR year of his career. If he can produce at those levles, the contract he just signed would certainly be great value for the Cardinals.

Before the age of 30 he's had 8 seaosns of .715 OPS ball.

Is there any other comparable of a guy who after that start has 5 or so seasons of .850 OPS?

I doubt it.

If you look at why he's so much better this year, his walk rate is behind career levels, and his K rate is up a bit.

His LD rate is 33% over career levels, and his HR/FB rate is at 14% vs.a career of 6.2%. He's getting less FB's but way more HR's?

There is little to suggest his hot start is anything other than randomness. I think he's a better hitter than he used to be, but an .800 OPS would be a huge achievement for him.

oregonred
05-25-2012, 12:09 PM
If the NL East beats each other up the rest of the way it is very likely both the Reds and Cards will make the playoffs. With five playoff teams, 90 wins should assure a post season bid.

The NL East is going to be a real dogfight and fun to watch this summer. All but the Mets are realistic playoff contenders and the baby NY team may still have a winning record. The Giants/Dodgers will get to beat up on the NL West.

Also for all those that wanted Houston to stay in the the NL Central I say good riddance. They may pester the Reds/Cards all season long - much like the good pitching Pirates. Having the only team in the #5 US metro area out of our division is a very good long term thing for the Reds and the rest of the division (but bad for the NL). Besides the math of 1/6th vs. 1/5th. The long term plan is that Texas must have a third team placed in the NL at some point in the next decade given the continued explosive growth in both population and corporate HQ in Texas.