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Kc61
05-21-2012, 03:11 PM
Reds are only .5 games out of first in Central after a 5-5 stretch, record now 21-19, 9-8 at home, 12-11 on road. Last year team was 13-9 at home, 10-8 on road for overall 23-17 record at this stage. Last year after 40 games, Reds led Central by 1.5 games. Reds have scored and allowed 155 runs in 2012 year, for a run differential of 0. Last year at this stage Reds run differential was +35. Rolen on the DL, Mike Constanzo with big club. Last year at this stage, Mike Leake was sent to AAA as injured players returned.

Offense - Reds team OPS is .693, eleventh in NL, about the same as last time (.694). Last year at this stage OPS was .773. Team BA is .238, thirteenth in the NL, Team OBP is .303, fourteenth in the NL, Team SLG is .387 seventh best in the NL. OBP is a tad higher than last time, SLG a bit lower. According to Fangraphs, Reds have a K% of 21.6 percent, third highest in the league behind Pirates and Padres. Reds walk percentage is 8%, sixth from the bottom of the NL. Reds have 121 walks, which is twelfth in NL, of which Joey Votto has 38, meaning the rest of the team has 83. Pirates, lowest BB number in the NL, has 88.

On the power side, Reds ISO (isolated power) is .151, fourth best in the NL. Reds continue to lead league in doubles with 81 (high for them) and have 36 homers, sixth in league (light for them). Notable stat: Reds OPS v. lefties this year is .702, OPS v. righties is now .689. Big drop off v. lefties from 2011, when Reds ended with .794 OPS. Votto has unusually big split this year so far, with .738 OPS against lefties, and 1.172 against righties.

Overall, Votto at 1.035 OPS, Bruce at .895 (only .520 for last seven games), Frazier .870, nobody else above .800. Phillips, hitting cleanup, at .659. Hanigan with .325 BA, .385 OBP, .410 SLG, .794 OPS. Stubbs was .689 last time now is .617. Ludwick (limited action) and Heisey both over 1.000 OPS for the last seven games.

Pitching - Reds with 3.50 ERA, seventh in NL, much improved over last year at this time (4.17, year ended with 4.16), but somewhat worse than ten games ago (was 3.27). Starters at 3.92, ninth in NL, back a bit from 3.64 last report. Bullpen 2.66 ERA, second in NL, was 2.48 last time. Reds overall xFIP is 3.72, fourth best in the NL. Another interesting stat -- Reds LOB% is 76.9%, that is the highest percentage in the NL.

Chapman, now closing games, still with a zero ERA and a 0.63 WHIP, 39 Ks in 22.1 innings. Cueto now 5-1 with 1.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Arredondo and Ondrusek are both 3-1 with ERAs of 2.29 and 2.55, respectively. Arroyo up to 3.46 ERA has now allowed 62 hits in 52 innings, but only 7 homers (remember last season) and only 6 BBs in 52 innings.

Marshall with 4.91 ERA no longer every day closer. WHIP is 1.70, but K/BB rate very good, 22/3. Starters other than previously mentioned: Bailey at 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP; Latos with 4.63 ERA, 1.52 WHIP; Leake with 6.21 ERA, 1.59 WHIP.

Fielding - Reds with 24 errors, third least in NL, with FPCT of .984 third best. That's 7 errors since last report. Last season, after 40 games, Reds had 19 errors. Reds have turned 27 DPs, tied for last place with Pads and Giants in NL. Last year Reds had 35 DPs at this stage. Reds DER is .684, fifth worst in NL according to MLB.com.

Reds1
05-21-2012, 03:22 PM
after reading that it seems the Reds have much room for improvement. The fact that they are only 1/2 game out is amazing. At this point of the year I can't say I'm super excited about the play, but with the fact that we lost closer, Masset, Bray along with Rolen and considering how bad the offense has been underperforming - overall I'm happy. Latos really hasn't hit his stride, but I DO see the potential. I'm pleased with Arroyo and Homer getting it going. Leake has blown up some, but the defense is one of the best and the pen has been much better than expected. Right now the bench and offense is a concern and with no one in AAA it's gonig to take a pick up or someone like Heisey to step up. I see a grind all year and who ever is healthy and playing well winning the division. In a short series we can compete with Cueto, Latos, Chap, etc. Scoring runs is going to be the trick this season IMO

Kc61
05-21-2012, 03:29 PM
When reading the report this time, keep in mind Reds are coming off a pretty tough stretch. They had the Nats at home, then the Braves, Mets, and Yanks on the road. Also, Reds were 7-3 last time, usually after a good ten game stretch there's some leveling off.

Cards have been playing poorly, Reds have done reasonably ok considering their schedule and the result is that they are just 1/2 game back.

The pitching numbers slid a bit, but they were unsustainably excellent, it was to be expected.

The offense is doing adequately in the power department, OBP still a problem. Team certainly should be doing more damage against lefties given the right handedness of the offense, but maybe yesterday v. CC was a good omen.

The report isn't that positive, but it was a tough stretch of games.

OesterPoster
05-21-2012, 04:16 PM
I still feel like the make-or-break stretch for this team will be the 10 day, 10 game west coast road trip from June 28th to July 8th. No off days before the trip or during the trip, ending with the All-Star break. Then you throw in the possibility of a trade deadline deal, and I can't think of a bigger stretch of days with a huge potential for success or failure.

The Reds get an extra off day after the break, and then a big 3-game weekend homestand against the Cards.

Kc61
05-21-2012, 04:21 PM
Would like to add one more thought to today's report. Three cheers for the Reds bullpen. It is the one truly outstanding unit on the team so far. We can argue about Chapman (starter, reliever), but as a reliever he has been a life saver for this club. He should be voted to the All-Star team unanimously.

Other than Marshall, who has some bad numbers but hasn't exactly been terrible, virtually every other reliever has been excellent or very good. And so far Dusty hasn't overused anyone to the point of complete exhaustion.

While the team has frustrated at times, the bullpen has been a pleasure to watch.

traderumor
05-21-2012, 04:42 PM
Was just looking at the standings and see that the Reds have really gotten no favors in the schedule department, plus timing. Not making excuses, just adding context to their current status.

Consider they have played everyone in the NL East except the weakest team right now, Philadelphia. All the others have winning records, and the team is 6-8, including the dismal 2-5 against the Nats, who may have already reached the high point of their season.

They beat the Yankees 2 of 3 in the Bronx. The Yankees currently have a winning record.

The Cardinals were playing their best ball of the year out of the gate. What do we do? Get home and home series, go 2-4.

40 games, mostly against winning teams, 7 series wins (Miami, Chicago, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston, Milwaukee, Yankees) 4 series losses (St. Louis (2), Washington (2)), 3 splits (Cubs, Braves, Mets).

So, while it has been a tough first 40 games, more offense should be expected against some lesser teams, the pitching seems to be about where they will be, and by the halfway mark, I think there will be a few games added to the above .500 mark. After this Atlanta series, the schedule opens up a bit and some things might start to look more like folks expected before the season.

So, 4-9 vs. Nats and Cardinals, 17-10 vs. everyone else. Hopefully we'll get a break and have a minimum of catching teams at their hottest in this next stretch.

KC, love this thread, always helps to step back and get some perspective for someone following the team very closely and sometimes getting caught up in the day to day drama. Heck, just this Friday, I'm in doomsday mode.

Homer Bailey
05-21-2012, 08:26 PM
Thanks KC, and nice post traderumor.

pedro
05-21-2012, 11:47 PM
While this years team is not without problems I really do feel that there are a lot of things to like about them too. The pitching has been pretty decent and I remain encouraged about Cozart despite his low OBP thus far. I don't think they are poised to be league champions yet but I do expect they'll be in the mix for the central all year and that should make them fun to follow through the summer and fall and that's a good thing IMO.