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Benihana
05-23-2012, 12:16 PM
Interesting hypothetical question that would never happen in real life-

Would you now trade Aroldis Chapman for Giancarlo Stanton?

Fish would love Cuban defector Chapman in the rotation or closing (they've had terrible problems on the backend of their bullpen). Chapman is now on pace to challenge the all-time K/9 season record.

Reds would love Stanton's bat in LF and the cleanup spot for years to come.

In reality, this deal carries far too much risk for both teams to ever come to fruition, but it is somewhat reminiscent of the hypothetical Dunn-for-Beckett discussion between these two teams on this board a decade ago. Would you do it?

(As an interesting aside, did you know that Stanton, Freddie Freeman, and Zach Cozart all went almost back-to-back-to-back in the second round of the 2007 draft? It's pointless to draft in hindsight, but it is interesting that we passed on him twice in the sandwich round that year to draft Frazier and Lotzkar)

cincyinco
05-23-2012, 12:20 PM
Yes.. You can always find pen arms. Through the draft, converting failed starters, free agency, etc. If Chapman was a SP? I'd give you an entirely different answer that started with a resounding no. I have little faith the Reds ever seriously try to stretch him out, however. This was supposed to be the year, and the Reds found every reason NOT to prepare him for a role in the rotation.

Benihana
05-23-2012, 12:22 PM
Like cincyinco, my guess is the answer to this question will depend entirely on how much faith one has in the Reds to successfully move Chapman into the rotation. If he's a SP, probably don't do the deal. If he's a RP, I think everyone would do it. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see if anyone has faith in Chapman to successfully make that move in Cincy.

puca
05-23-2012, 12:39 PM
A resounding yes.

If Chapman ended up being a great SP for the fish then there would be some regrets, but an impact bat trumps a impact reliever in my book.

Degenerate39
05-23-2012, 12:44 PM
1. Phillips.
2. Stubbs
3. Votto
4. Stanton
5. Bruce
6. Cozart
7. Hanigan
8. Frazier
9. Pitcher

Absolutely I'd do that trade

PuffyPig
05-23-2012, 12:46 PM
I have little faith the Reds ever seriously try to stretch him out, however. This was supposed to be the year, and the Reds found every reason NOT to prepare him for a role in the rotation.

The five reasons they didn't put him in the rotation were (1) his lack of previous success as a starter;(2) their concern about the number of innings he would throw at such a young age; (3) the fact we already had 5 viable starters; (4) the huge need for another hammer in the bullpen with the injuries to Madsen, Massett and Bray; and (5) the desire to have Chapman sustain real success in one role before preparing him for a more difficult role.

It's not like they did it becuase Chapman ate cornflakes for breakfast or something.

Their reasons for having Chapman remain in the bullpen were reasonable and well thought out.

And the choice to do so has been a resounding success.

757690
05-23-2012, 12:50 PM
Always trade a pitcher for a hitter of equal talents and contract status. Pitchers are far more unpredictable and injury prone.

Hap
05-23-2012, 12:58 PM
hypothetically no simply because in my hypothetical opinion the reds currently have an overall shortage of hypothetically elite left-handed pitching

RedlegJake
05-23-2012, 01:20 PM
Yes. Stanton is likely to be a premier slugger for years to come. Chapman is likely to be a dominant pitcher for years to come. The huge an I do mean huge, qualifier is that pitchers careers are far, far riskier to predict than hitters. More health and injury problems that can end things overnight. Stanton's likelihood of having a long successful career is far better than Chapman's. If I'm a GM and have a chance to make that trade I'd do it every time especially given that the Reds have great pitching, two very good relievers that I expect back at some point, an a huge hole on my lineup crying out for a hitter exactly like Giancarlo. In fact, I'd add another player to the deal if they wanted - Heisey or Neftali Soto.

Homer Bailey
05-23-2012, 01:22 PM
If the Reds plan to keep Chapman as a reliever, then yes absolutely I would. If we could see what he'd be like as a starter, I'd be much more apprehensive. I truly think he can be a top 5 pitcher in the game in the rotation.

redsmetz
05-23-2012, 01:25 PM
I seem to be the only one who has voted No. The intention still is to move him into the rotation. I agree with John Erardi that given this year's circumstances, it's best to leave him where he is, but I fully expect they'll make the move next year and I don't think you give up an elite starting arm like that.

RedEye
05-23-2012, 01:26 PM
There are very few players in MLB that I would consider in a straight-up trade for Chapman. Giancarlo Stanton is one of them.

Good grief, the Reds lineup would be RIDICULOUS with Stanton batting between Votto and Bruce.

The Operator
05-23-2012, 01:43 PM
I fully expect they'll make the move next year...until Bray and/or Masset come up gimpy again, then we'll start hearing whispers of "Well, we might need him in the pen again. But just for this year, in 2014 he's in the rotation. Mark it down!" from Dusty and Walt.

As per whether or not I'd do the trade:

If he's going to become a starter (which I doubt)? No. Otherwise, yes.

Dan
05-23-2012, 01:48 PM
I actually advocated this trade last year and it was shot down by virtually everyone because "The Marlins aren't trading Stanton." Has that changed?

At this point I'm not advocating the trade, as I think there are other interesting solutions out there to the LF/cleanup hole. However, if it happened, I wouldn't be sad. I, too, think Stanton is one of the few players I would trade straight up for Chapman.

puca
05-23-2012, 02:00 PM
If there was no (or little) doubt Chapman would be a #1 starter and if there was no doubt that Reds front office was commited to making him one I would have reservations.

There is doubt on both fronts so I would not hesitate to flip Chapman for Stanton - especially considering the lack of a good RH hitter in this lineup. And by that I mean a RH hitter that can hit RHP - his spits may not show that this year, but they have been pretty even over his career.

puca
05-23-2012, 02:01 PM
I actually advocated this trade last year and it was shot down by virtually everyone because "The Marlins aren't trading Stanton." Has that changed?

At this point I'm not advocating the trade, as I think there are other interesting solutions out there to the LF/cleanup hole. However, if it happened, I wouldn't be sad. I, too, think Stanton is one of the few players I would trade straight up for Chapman.

The Marlins still aren't trading Stanton. This was purely hypothetical.

cumberlandreds
05-23-2012, 02:01 PM
There are very few players in MLB that I would consider in a straight-up trade for Chapman. Giancarlo Stanton is one of them.

Good grief, the Reds lineup would be RIDICULOUS with Stanton batting between Votto and Bruce.

My thoughts too. There's only a handful of players I would trade Chapman for and Stanton is one of them.

_Sir_Charles_
05-23-2012, 02:05 PM
I know it won't be a popular opinion, but I firmly believe that the Reds will keep Chapman in the pen this year and all of next year....at the minimum. Bronson is off the books in 2014. Until then, we're looking at our rotation. They've invested too much time and effort into Homer to ditch him right when he looks like he's ready to take the next step. Leake shows too much upside at such a young age to part with. Latos & Cueto...they aren't going anywhere. So until Bronson's gone, Chapman won't be in the rotation. Because before that time, it pretty much forces a trade of either Homer or Leake...and I'm pretty sure that the reds want to keep those 2 in order to make the full 5 man rotation of Latos/Cueto/Chapman/Bailey/Leake after Bronson's gone.

But here's the rub, if Chapman's successful at closing...he'll stay there permanently IMO.

kaldaniels
05-23-2012, 02:12 PM
I'd trade 2 Chapmans for 1 Stanton. :D

puca
05-23-2012, 02:14 PM
I know it won't be a popular opinion, but I firmly believe that the Reds will keep Chapman in the pen this year and all of next year....at the minimum. Bronson is off the books in 2014. Until then, we're looking at our rotation. They've invested too much time and effort into Homer to ditch him right when he looks like he's ready to take the next step. Leake shows too much upside at such a young age to part with. Latos & Cueto...they aren't going anywhere. So until Bronson's gone, Chapman won't be in the rotation. Because before that time, it pretty much forces a trade of either Homer or Leake...and I'm pretty sure that the reds want to keep those 2 in order to make the full 5 man rotation of Latos/Cueto/Chapman/Bailey/Leake after Bronson's gone.

But here's the rub, if Chapman's successful at closing...he'll stay there permanently IMO.

I agree, I don't see anything changing next year. Baring a trade or serious injury they have the same 5 starters coming back. The fact that he will be their incumbant closer makes it even less likely they will make that switch next season.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2012, 02:20 PM
I seem to be the only one who has voted No. The intention still is to move him into the rotation. I agree with John Erardi that given this year's circumstances, it's best to leave him where he is, but I fully expect they'll make the move next year and I don't think you give up an elite starting arm like that.

2010 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.
2011 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.
2012 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.

Aroldis Chapman (career): 88G / 0GS

The Reds have no intention of moving Aroldis Chpaman to the rotation.

RedFanAlways1966
05-23-2012, 03:32 PM
Absolutely NO. I might be older than some/most here, but losing games by the score of 11-8 and 10-6 is still in my not-too-long-ago-memory. I want good pitching. I am willing to take a chance on good pitching (still have no problem with Hamilton for Volquez and no prob with Latos for Alonso/others). The last two games against the team with the 2nd best record in the NL was not won by those 7 HRs (yes, it helped, cannot win without scoring at least 1 run). It was won with pitching.

Give me arms or give me no playoffs.

Chip R
05-23-2012, 03:32 PM
Are you going to be able to pay for Stanton beyond his arbitration years, as well as Votto, Bruce, Phillips, et. al.?

redsmetz
05-23-2012, 03:36 PM
2010 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.
2011 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.
2012 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.

Aroldis Chapman (career): 88G / 0GS

The Reds have no intention of moving Aroldis Chpaman to the rotation.

And folks have explained endlessly why he's not starting this year, which was the year they had every intention of moving him into the rotation some time this year. I think you're mistaken. Only time will tell, of course, but I believe next year he'll be there. Believe what you want.

Benihana
05-23-2012, 04:17 PM
There are very few players in MLB that I would consider in a straight-up trade for Chapman. Giancarlo Stanton is one of them.

Good grief, the Reds lineup would be RIDICULOUS with Stanton batting between Votto and Bruce.

This.

kaldaniels
05-23-2012, 04:32 PM
Are you going to be able to pay for Stanton beyond his arbitration years, as well as Votto, Bruce, Phillips, et. al.?

Same could be asked for Aroldis.

Bumstead
05-23-2012, 04:35 PM
Same could be asked for Aroldis.

Why wouldn't we be able to afford a setup man after his arbitration years? It's not like he's Randy Johnson is it?

Bum

Vottomatic
05-23-2012, 04:36 PM
Probably one of the toughest trade proposals I've ever had to consider. Wow. Tough one for me.

Ask me last season, and it was an easy yes.

This season? Hmmm. Geez, I enjoy watching Chapman pitch so much I'd miss him. Seriously. Even in relief.

On the other hand, my #1 trade target for cleanup hitter has always been Stanton. He's still cheap. Very young. Very productive. And would make this offense take off like a stealth fighter jet.

I'd say reluctantly yes. And I think it's a trade the Marlins would seriously have to consider.

I do think the stellar bullpen takes a hit though. But the improved offense makes up for it, and Joey Votto would probably french kiss Walt Jocketty on the lips if he made that trade because his numbers would be incredible with Stanton behind him.

kaldaniels
05-23-2012, 04:38 PM
Why wouldn't we be able to afford a setup man after his arbitration years? It's not like he's Randy Johnson is it?

Bum

I'm not happy with how Chapman has been handled. But he won't be a setup man in 2016.

Bumstead
05-23-2012, 04:39 PM
I'm not happy with how Chapman has been handled. But he won't be a setup man in 2016.

Me neither. I was being sarcastic...sorry. ;)

kaldaniels
05-23-2012, 04:42 PM
Me neither. I was being sarcastic...sorry. ;)

I thought so....but didn't want to assume. My fault. :laugh:

Rojo
05-23-2012, 04:58 PM
Absolutely NO. I might be older than some/most here, but losing games by the score of 11-8 and 10-6 is still in my not-too-long-ago-memory. I want good pitching. I am willing to take a chance on good pitching (still have no problem with Hamilton for Volquez and no prob with Latos for Alonso/others). The last two games against the team with the 2nd best record in the NL was not won by those 7 HRs (yes, it helped, cannot win without scoring at least 1 run). It was won with pitching.

Acquiring pitching, developing it, holding on to it -- none of that matters. The important thing is to talk about it.

dougdirt
05-23-2012, 07:10 PM
Not that it would ever happen, but yes a million times. Starter, reliever, I don't care. Stanton is going to be hitting 50 home runs on a yearly basis here soon.

Scrap Irony
05-23-2012, 07:22 PM
Stanton in a New York minute.

And I love Chapman.

Stanton is Adam Dunn with an above average glove.

dougdirt
05-23-2012, 07:25 PM
Stanton in a New York minute.

And I love Chapman.

Stanton is Adam Dunn with an above average glove.

And batting average. And arm.

mth123
05-23-2012, 09:21 PM
Easy, Easy yes.

Heck, I'd throw in Marshall to get it done.

Cedric
05-23-2012, 10:23 PM
I'm not trying to be cute but I don't see how this is even a question. Stanton has much, much more value.

RedlegJake
05-23-2012, 10:32 PM
I'm not trying to be cute but I don't see how this is even a question. Stanton has much, much more value.

I dunno. Easy enough to see Chapman going all Pedro Martinez in a year or two. At this point Stanton's difference in value is in the difference in risk as to their probable chance of attaining future ceilings imo. But Chapman could end up the more valuable of the two.

dougdirt
05-23-2012, 10:33 PM
I dunno. Easy enough to see Chapman going all Pedro Martinez in a year or two. At this point Stanton's difference in value is in the difference in risk as to their probable chance of attaining future ceilings imo. But Chapman could end up the more valuable of the two.

But Chapman isn't likely to be and since he already isn't the most valuable of the two, it is an easy trade to decide.

kaldaniels
05-23-2012, 10:33 PM
I dunno. Easy enough to see Chapman going all Pedro Martinez in a year or two. At this point Stanton's difference in value is in the difference in risk as to their probable chance of attaining future ceilings imo. But Chapman could end up the more valuable of the two.

Do you do the deal?

RedlegJake
05-23-2012, 10:36 PM
Oh yes, in a heartbeat. Already posted that earlier. I was just pointing out that Chapman is taented enough to maybe end up the more valuable...big maybe but...

Chip R
05-24-2012, 12:03 AM
Same could be asked for Aroldis.

Chapman is a fixed cost. We know what he's going to get salary wise for the next 4 years. If Stanton keeps playing like he has, he's going to be looking at some pretty expensive salaries if he isn't signed through his arbitration years. And if he is, he's going to be making a great deal of money. Maybe not Pujols/Votto/Fielder numbers but maybe Ryan Howard or Braun numbers.

If all things were even, I'd do that trade. But no way MIA would do that trade straight up.

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 12:09 AM
Chapman is a fixed cost. We know what he's going to get salary wise for the next 4 years. If Stanton keeps playing like he has, he's going to be looking at some pretty expensive salaries if he isn't signed through his arbitration years. And if he is, he's going to be making a great deal of money. Maybe not Pujols/Votto/Fielder numbers but maybe Ryan Howard or Braun numbers.

If all things were even, I'd do that trade. But no way MIA would do that trade straight up.

The context was "beyond arbitration". They both will make a lot beyond arbitration.

Chip R
05-24-2012, 12:12 AM
The context was "beyond arbitration". They both will make a lot beyond arbitration.

Sure. But who has the potential to make more, Chapman or Stanton?

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 12:16 AM
Sure. But who has the potential to make more, Chapman or Stanton?

In essence who is the better player? You raised the question whether Stanton's 2017 salary would be a concern in regards to making the deal. I say no way. But in regards to the Reds payroll in 2017, if the both pan out, you are looking at 20 MM dollar players, so why worry about it. Make the deal today for the better player.

RedFanAlways1966
05-24-2012, 01:12 PM
Good to see we do not learn from the past. Let me help to refresh...

Harnisch, Jimmy Haynes/Anderson, Graves, Wilson, Reitsma, Austin, Riedling, Acevedo, Hall, Bale, Etherton, Serafini, Van Poppel, Randell. Reith, Lidle, Valentine, Bong, Sanchez, Claussen, Hancock, Hudson, Milton, Ortiz, Belisle, Ramirez, Keisler, Williams, Mays, Germano, Michalak, Kim, Livingstin, Saarloos, Dumatrait, Shearn, Countangus, Majewski, McBeth, Santos, Stanton (the McNamee client), Weathers, Coffey, Cormier, Franklin, Hammond, Standridge, Wagner, Jones, Norton, Matthews, White, Heredia, Manzanillo.

I want to be fair and list quality pitchers from that era. I guess Harang might be listed. My memory might need refreshed on that subject. Or is my memory good on that subject? Do help me Stanton lovers!

Those early 2000s and mid 2000s teams could really score some runs. No problem. They also gave up a crap-load of runs. BIG PROBLEM!! Yea, yea... everyday players are sexy. YES, YES... pitchers put pennants on your OF wall. Stanton is a hell of a player and I am not slighting him... just to be clear.

traderumor
05-24-2012, 01:19 PM
2010 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.
2011 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.
2012 Cincinnati Reds: We want Aroldis Chapman to start.

Aroldis Chapman (career): 88G / 0GS

The Reds have no intention of moving Aroldis Chpaman to the rotation.Interesting that he started his career in the Reds org. as a starter. You left that out of your analysis. Also, as has been pointed out elsewhere, you are no less than saying there was a whole lot of lying going on this spring. Somebody's on a soapbox.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 02:04 PM
Good to see we do not learn from the past. Let me help to refresh...

"Good" list. But I think we're going it alone here. Corner sluggers are pretty fungible but Chapman's had about the best 23 innings ever.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 02:07 PM
Stantons come around more often than Chapmans do.

Chapmans are the ones that win you a World Series. Give me Chapman.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 02:35 PM
Stantons come around more often than Chapmans do.

Chapmans are the ones that win you a World Series. Give me Chapman.

Guys who has 56 career home runs before they turn 22 come around more often than relievers who throw 100 who might have a chance at being a starter?

puca
05-24-2012, 02:43 PM
If Chapman was the type of TOR starter that I hope he can be, then I would probably answer differently. Right now he is a closer and even though he has arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball, he is still cannot impact the game unless a lot of other things go right. Stanton can impact the game from the first inning on.

I don't know of a single team that has ridden a closer to the postseason or world series.

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 03:27 PM
Good to see we do not learn from the past. Let me help to refresh...

Harnisch, Jimmy Haynes/Anderson, Graves, Wilson, Reitsma, Austin, Riedling, Acevedo, Hall, Bale, Etherton, Serafini, Van Poppel, Randell. Reith, Lidle, Valentine, Bong, Sanchez, Claussen, Hancock, Hudson, Milton, Ortiz, Belisle, Ramirez, Keisler, Williams, Mays, Germano, Michalak, Kim, Livingstin, Saarloos, Dumatrait, Shearn, Countangus, Majewski, McBeth, Santos, Stanton (the McNamee client), Weathers, Coffey, Cormier, Franklin, Hammond, Standridge, Wagner, Jones, Norton, Matthews, White, Heredia, Manzanillo.

I want to be fair and list quality pitchers from that era. I guess Harang might be listed. My memory might need refreshed on that subject. Or is my memory good on that subject? Do help me Stanton lovers!

Those early 2000s and mid 2000s teams could really score some runs. No problem. They also gave up a crap-load of runs. BIG PROBLEM!! Yea, yea... everyday players are sexy. YES, YES... pitchers put pennants on your OF wall. Stanton is a hell of a player and I am not slighting him... just to be clear.

Would you trade Votto for a starting pitcher? If not, why? If so, what pitchers?

corkedbat
05-24-2012, 03:45 PM
What would it take to buy low on LoMo?

Rojo
05-24-2012, 03:46 PM
Guys who has 56 career home runs before they turn 22 come around more often than relievers who throw 100 who might have a chance at being a starter?

He might have a chance to be a brutally dominating starter or a HOF closer. And Stanton might be Ruben Sierra.

Every game's the same -- eight guys score you runs, one guy prevents them.

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 03:49 PM
He might have a chance to be a brutally dominating starter or a HOF closer. And Stanton might be Ruben Sierra.

Every game's the same -- eight guys score you runs, one guy prevents them.

I just read this as saying pitching always trumps hitting. What about these two guys makes you prefer Chapman, who has never started, to Stanton?

Brutus
05-24-2012, 03:55 PM
Guys who has 56 career home runs before they turn 22 come around more often than relievers who throw 100 who might have a chance at being a starter?

Chapman has struck out 133 batters in 87 innings thus far as someone that recently turned 24. That's more impressive to me than 56 homers at 22.

Chapman's usage is a different discussion than his talent.

757690
05-24-2012, 03:55 PM
Didn't the Reds already have Mike Stanton? I recall it not working out that well. ;)

RedFanAlways1966
05-24-2012, 04:06 PM
Would you trade Votto for a starting pitcher? If not, why? If so, what pitchers?

Yes. It will take an elite pitcher (to be fair). I will not name names b/c then it becomes a pissing match for some. I'd rather not go there (and I do not mean you, kal). I am biased towards pitching. Not because I was a pitcher (not counting little league), but b/c I am a lifelong REDS fan. That should explain it. A BRM or '27 Yanks might (key word) happen once in a lifetime.

corkedbat
05-24-2012, 04:16 PM
What would it take to buy low on LoMo?

Reds1
05-24-2012, 05:12 PM
Yes.. You can always find pen arms. Through the draft, converting failed starters, free agency, etc. If Chapman was a SP? I'd give you an entirely different answer that started with a resounding no. I have little faith the Reds ever seriously try to stretch him out, however. This was supposed to be the year, and the Reds found every reason NOT to prepare him for a role in the rotation.

I don't agree here. What this league is showing us is that good consistant closers are hard to find and Chapman right now is the best RP in the league. Also, he may one day become a very dominant starter. This team is winning through pitching not hitting. I wouldn't do this dea. Just my thoughts.

Reds1
05-24-2012, 05:16 PM
Guys who has 56 career home runs before they turn 22 come around more often than relievers who throw 100 who might have a chance at being a starter?

I'd say they are both special players, but I still say good pitching beats good hitting. Reds have a fairly average offense. They have great potential, but still strike otu too much and well, yada yada. It seems to me our pitching has a chance to be pretty special. Imagine having our 3 hurt relief pitchres in the mix - it's pretty exciting. I love to watch our pen right now and I can't believe I just said that. I guess either way having one of these special players would help your team. It would be hard to trade Chapman right now.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 05:29 PM
Chapman has struck out 133 batters in 87 innings thus far as someone that recently turned 24. That's more impressive to me than 56 homers at 22.

Chapman's usage is a different discussion than his talent.

Except we already know what Stanton can do as a full time player and it is mash with the best of them. We don't know at all what Chapman can do as a full time pitcher.

Stanton is on a short list of players with more than 55 home runs before turning 22. Here is the list: Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Bob Horner and Mike Stanton.

Craig Kimbrel last year, at age 23, had 32 walks and 127 strikeouts in 77 innings. He has 192 strikeouts in 113.2 innings. He is still 23 years old. What Chapman has done has been very awesome. What Mike Stanton has done has been historically awesome.

Rojo, the biggest difference between Sierra and Stanton is that Sierra seemed alergic to walking. Stanton walked 70 times as a 21 year old in the Major Leagues. Ruben Sierra never walked more than 60 times in a season in his entire career.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 05:32 PM
I'd say they are both special players, but I still say good pitching beats good hitting. Reds have a fairly average offense. They have great potential, but still strike otu too much and well, yada yada. It seems to me our pitching has a chance to be pretty special. Imagine having our 3 hurt relief pitchres in the mix - it's pretty exciting. I love to watch our pen right now and I can't believe I just said that. I guess either way having one of these special players would help your team. It would be hard to trade Chapman right now.

Chapman is two years away from being a full time starting pitcher for the Reds. Bullpen guys, even very good ones, can be had. Cheap, middle of the order hitters can't be. Mike Stanton is an elite level every day player. Aroldis Chapman is a relief pitcher.

757690
05-24-2012, 05:40 PM
Chapman is two years away from being a full time starting pitcher for the Reds. Bullpen guys, even very good ones, can be had. Cheap, middle of the order hitters can't be. Mike Stanton is an elite level every day player. Aroldis Chapman is a relief pitcher.

Chapman could enter the Reds rotation right now and be an above average starter. He is not a bullpen guy, no matter how he is being used.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 05:43 PM
Chapman could enter the Reds rotation right now and be an above average starter. He is not a bullpen guy, no matter how he is being used.

He might be able to. But it would be limited to about 120 innings too. Give me Stanton this year over 120 innings of whatever Chapman could be. Don't even have to think twice about it.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 05:55 PM
Except we already know what Stanton can do as a full time player and it is mash with the best of them. We don't know at all what Chapman can do as a full time pitcher.

Stanton is on a short list of players with more than 55 home runs before turning 22. Here is the list: Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Bob Horner and Mike Stanton.

Craig Kimbrel last year, at age 23, had 32 walks and 127 strikeouts in 77 innings. He has 192 strikeouts in 113.2 innings. He is still 23 years old. What Chapman has done has been very awesome. What Mike Stanton has done has been historically awesome.

Rojo, the biggest difference between Sierra and Stanton is that Sierra seemed alergic to walking. Stanton walked 70 times as a 21 year old in the Major Leagues. Ruben Sierra never walked more than 60 times in a season in his entire career.

Let's not get carried away. Stanton's career OPS right now is .866. That's not "historically awesome."

That's good for his age, but he's by no means a sure thing any more than Chapman. There are currently 30 players that have a qualified OPS over .866.

757690
05-24-2012, 05:58 PM
He might be able to. But it would be limited to about 120 innings too. Give me Stanton this year over 120 innings of whatever Chapman could be. Don't even have to think twice about it.

I agree. Good point. I just think its time to admit that Chapman is ready for the rotation, in terms of his ability.

757690
05-24-2012, 06:05 PM
The way I see it, Chapman is probably a better and rarer player, but Stanton better fits the Reds needs over the next five years.

The Reds need another big bat and really don't have one in their system at any level. However, they have Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Leake until at least 2015. Another TOR arm would be great, but just not as needed as much as a big bat. Add in the fact that pitchers get injured more often than hitters, and I'll take Stanton.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 06:18 PM
Except we already know what Stanton can do as a full time player and it is mash with the best of them. We don't know at all what Chapman can do as a full time pitcher.

Is Stanton a better bet in the long run? Probably. Hitters are always safer bets. But if you constantly move pitchers for hitters, you get a lot of time to plan your Halloween party.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 06:19 PM
However, they have Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Leake until at least 2015. Another TOR arm would be great, but just not as needed as much as a big bat.


Add in the fact that pitchers get injured more often than hitters, and I'll take Stanton.

You ought to introduce those two sentences to each other.

Vottomatic
05-24-2012, 06:30 PM
What if this trade really happened? This board would go nuts.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 07:36 PM
Let's not get carried away. Stanton's career OPS right now is .866. That's not "historically awesome."

That's good for his age, but he's by no means a sure thing any more than Chapman. There are currently 30 players that have a qualified OPS over .866.

An .866 career OPS from a 22 year old isn't historically awesome? Who are the ones higher than that?

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 07:56 PM
Is Stanton a better bet in the long run? Probably. Hitters are always safer bets. But if you constantly move pitchers for hitters, you get a lot of time to plan your Halloween party.

No one is saying the Reds should constantly give up pitching for hitting, so that is a straw man. Let's try to keep the debate to this one trade in isolation.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 07:57 PM
An .866 career OPS from a 22 year old isn't historically awesome? Who are the ones higher than that?

I'm not interested in what his OPS is for his age. Those kinds of thresholds are superficial and not real informative about what he is relative to current competition or what he'll be going forward. I'm more interested in what he is and what he'll be and what Chapman is or will be. I value Chapman's potential as a pitcher more than I value Stanton's value as a batter because those kind of pitchers truly don't come around often, and when they do, they're the type that can carry a team through a postseason series.

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 07:58 PM
I have no beef if someone wants to keep Chapman because they believe he has a higher ceiling. But some posts here like the one that lists all the bad pitchers we have seen here are kinda silly.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 08:02 PM
I'm not interested in what his OPS is for his age. Those kinds of thresholds are superficial and not real informative about what he is relative to current competition or what he'll be going forward. I'm more interested in what he is and what he'll be and what Chapman is or will be. I value Chapman's potential as a pitcher more than I value Stanton's value as a batter because those kind of pitchers truly don't come around often, and when they do, they're the type that can carry a team through a postseason series.
What he has done as a 22 year old is incredibly informative about what he is going to do moving forward.

Stanton has the potential to be a 50 home run guy. Chapman has the chance to be an Ace. One is a lot closer to happening than the other. One is also a lot more likely to happen. Stanton is the more likely in both situations.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 08:15 PM
Would you trade Votto for a starting pitcher? If not, why? If so, what pitchers?


No one is saying the Reds should constantly give up pitching for hitting, so that is a straw man. Let's try to keep the debate to this one trade in isolation.

:laugh:

School's out early this year.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 08:18 PM
What he has done as a 22 year old is incredibly informative about what he is going to do moving forward.

Stanton has the potential to be a 50 home run guy. Chapman has the chance to be an Ace. One is a lot closer to happening than the other. One is also a lot more likely to happen. Stanton is the more likely in both situations.

How does comparing him to other former 22-year olds tell us absolutely anything about what Stanton is going to do going forward?

Guys that hit 40-50 home runs have come around a lot more often than guys that strike out 13 batters per nine innings.

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 08:42 PM
:laugh:

School's out early this year.

I'd love to see you explain what you find funny.

jojo
05-24-2012, 09:08 PM
Always trade a pitcher for a hitter of equal talents and contract status. Pitchers are far more unpredictable and injury prone.

This.

Vottomatic
05-24-2012, 09:45 PM
It's a no-brainer. Chapman for Stanton in a millisecond.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 09:46 PM
It's a no-brainer. Chapman for Stanton in a millisecond.

Nearly four out of 10 people that have voted on this poll seem to think it's not such an open and shut case.

jojo
05-24-2012, 09:49 PM
Hamilton for Volquez. Reds Nation has faced this hypothetical before.

Vottomatic
05-24-2012, 09:49 PM
Nearly four out of 10 people that have voted on this poll seem to think it's not such an open and shut case.

Well, they're wrong. :laugh: :p ;)

Pitchers are more prone to career ending injuries than outfielders.

Reds pitching is coming together. The need for a solid RH cleanup hitter behind Votto is huge.

It really is a no-brainer.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 09:57 PM
Hamilton for Volquez. Reds Nation has faced this hypothetical before.

Well, there ya' go.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 09:59 PM
I'd love to see you explain what you find funny.

Really? I have to explain to you how your quoted remarks completely contradict each other?

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 10:16 PM
Really? I have to explain to you how your quoted remarks completely contradict each other?

Of course you are diverting that fact that your remark was a strawman. I challenge you to prove that it was not. Has anyone said we should constantly trade pitching for hitting? Each trade is unique and should be looked at as so. This trade has nothing to do with the Original Mike Stanton, as some would like us I think.

My remark about viewing the trade in isolation was to try I get away from the "always trade pitching for hitting" and vice versa, which is no way to look at an individual deal. Sorry for any confusion.

I feel I have laid out a reasonable explanation and would love for you to do the same.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 10:16 PM
How does comparing him to other former 22-year olds tell us absolutely anything about what Stanton is going to do going forward?

Guys that hit 40-50 home runs have come around a lot more often than guys that strike out 13 batters per nine innings.

Well, for starters, bell curves for hitters generally hold pretty true. Historical comparisons for players tend to hold pretty true as well. Guys who have been able to do what Stanton has through age 22 is a list of Hall of Famers.

Right now, Chapman has shown he can strike out 13/9 as a reliever. Until he does it as a starter, I could care less. I want Chapman starting yesterday. But right now, he would have to be performing like a #1, perhaps not an Ace, but a #1, to be worthy of bringing back Stanton. Chapman isn't that right now and to be honest, it isn't all that likely that he could be, at least right now.

Rojo
05-24-2012, 10:20 PM
Of course you are diverting that fact that your remark was a strawman. I challenge you to prove that it was not.

You might want to re-read the strawman chapter of the Logic Handbook. While your at it, check out "proving a negative".

~Ciao

Rojo
05-24-2012, 10:23 PM
Guys who have been able to do what Stanton has through age 22 is a list of Hall of Famers.

And what if he is? Seriously. Dave Parker has a better shot at the Hall than Jose Rijo does.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 10:25 PM
And what if he is? Seriously. Dave Parker has a better shot at the Hall than Jose Rijo does.

I am not sure I get your point. Care to expand on it?

jojo
05-24-2012, 10:26 PM
Well, for starters, bell curves for hitters generally hold pretty true. Historical comparisons for players tend to hold pretty true as well. Guys who have been able to do what Stanton has through age 22 is a list of Hall of Famers.

Right now, Chapman has shown he can strike out 13/9 as a reliever. Until he does it as a starter, I could care less. I want Chapman starting yesterday. But right now, he would have to be performing like a #1, perhaps not an Ace, but a #1, to be worthy of bringing back Stanton. Chapman isn't that right now and to be honest, it isn't all that likely that he could be, at least right now.

Stanton is basically averaging 4 WAR/600 through his age 22 season. He's got very manageable platoon splits and he's been a plus defender. The difference in risk/reward between the two is very large and is tilted in Stanton's favor.

mth123
05-24-2012, 10:28 PM
Seriously, if you had Stanton would you even think about dealing him for Chapman?

I might think about it, but only if you threw in Jay Bruce.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 10:39 PM
Well, they're wrong. :laugh: :p ;)

Pitchers are more prone to career ending injuries than outfielders.

Reds pitching is coming together. The need for a solid RH cleanup hitter behind Votto is huge.

It really is a no-brainer.

Being more prone to career ending injuries is only one of many factors. By that logic, you'd trade away every good pitcher for a good hitter. That's ridiculous.

Run prevention correlates better to success than run scoring, just FYI. That suggests they're definitely not wrong.

Brutus
05-24-2012, 10:41 PM
Well, for starters, bell curves for hitters generally hold pretty true. Historical comparisons for players tend to hold pretty true as well. Guys who have been able to do what Stanton has through age 22 is a list of Hall of Famers.

Right now, Chapman has shown he can strike out 13/9 as a reliever. Until he does it as a starter, I could care less. I want Chapman starting yesterday. But right now, he would have to be performing like a #1, perhaps not an Ace, but a #1, to be worthy of bringing back Stanton. Chapman isn't that right now and to be honest, it isn't all that likely that he could be, at least right now.

Chapman is pitching better than anyone in baseball right now. It's highly doubtful that he wouldn't be dominant as a starter.

dougdirt
05-24-2012, 10:42 PM
Chapman is pitching better than anyone in baseball right now. It's highly doubtful that he wouldn't be dominant as a starter.

A lot of guys have been dominant relievers who couldn't cut it as a starter. A whole lot.

And Chapman is also a guy who is two seasons away on most teams from being allowed to throw more than 180 innings.

kaldaniels
05-24-2012, 10:44 PM
Chapman is pitching better than anyone in baseball right now. It's highly doubtful that he wouldn't be dominant as a starter.

That is a big step to take as far as assumptions go. I think it could go either way, with a lean towards him being a great starter. Now who is right? Who knows.

RedFanAlways1966
05-25-2012, 09:04 AM
I have no beef if someone wants to keep Chapman because they believe he has a higher ceiling. But some posts here like the one that lists all the bad pitchers we have seen here are kinda silly.

Silly? Silly is thinking good pitching does not win titles. I am a bit surprised that the mostly educated ORG does not smell this coffee in the majority. Were we REDS fans during the first 8 years of Great American Ball Park? Do explain if any of you were. Tell us about team ERAs and the like when a REDS player stood 60'6" from home plate. And tell us about all those banners those guys helped bring to the Queen City. I remember lots of hitting and scoring in those years. Unfortunately the other team did more of that. It is simple. The other team loses if they score less. Scoring 8 runs does not guarantee a win. See REDS 2003-2009. See the SILLY (embarrassing) list of pitchers that graced the mound in those glorious years. To ignore that list is silly... not as silly as Germany not learning a lesson after 1918, but repeating silly history is not smart.

Josh Hamilton? Sure he helped Texas win two AL pennants. But to ignore the pitchers they had/have on that team is also silly. To ignore the Braves of the 1990's is silly. Remembering the ptichers is far easier than the good hitters for those teams. Why? Because they (PITCHERS) were responsible for those banners that hang in Turner Field.

Perhaps the ORG consensus thinks the staff is good enough w/out Chapman. I do not.

jojo
05-25-2012, 10:26 AM
Silly? Silly is thinking good pitching does not win titles. I am a bit surprised that the mostly educated ORG does not smell this coffee in the majority. Were we REDS fans during the first 8 years of Great American Ball Park? Do explain if any of you were. Tell us about team ERAs and the like when a REDS player stood 60'6" from home plate. And tell us about all those banners those guys helped bring to the Queen City. I remember lots of hitting and scoring in those years. Unfortunately the other team did more of that. It is simple. The other team loses if they score less. Scoring 8 runs does not guarantee a win. See REDS 2003-2009. See the SILLY (embarrassing) list of pitchers that graced the mound in those glorious years. To ignore that list is silly... not as silly as Germany not learning a lesson after 1918, but repeating silly history is not smart.

Josh Hamilton? Sure he helped Texas win two AL pennants. But to ignore the pitchers they had/have on that team is also silly. To ignore the Braves of the 1990's is silly. Remembering the ptichers is far easier than the good hitters for those teams. Why? Because they (PITCHERS) were responsible for those banners that hang in Turner Field.

Perhaps the ORG consensus thinks the staff is good enough w/out Chapman. I do not.

Here's a little calculus.... Pythag demonstrates that run scoring is roughly 50% of the equation and run prevention is roughly 50% of the equation.

Run prevention is comprised of pitching AND defense. So if one were to parse offense, defense, pitching into percentages based upon their impact on run scoring, it might look something like this: offense (50%) +pitching (35-40%)+defense (10-15%).

A position player influences both offense and defense significantly. Position players in general experience less attrition then pitchers and offense is much easier to model and is thus more reliable to project.

Also while Chapman is electric and a special talent (this I believe everyone in this discussion would stipulate), he currently is a releif pitcher which limits his ulitmate impact. It is no given that he could successfully transition to the rotation, but I agree that it's reasonable to suggest Chapman could become a good starter. It's also very reasonable to suggest that it's not certain that he could.

These assertions are backed by history.

If you want to beat the house more often, go with the position player. No one is arguing being dogmatic about it-approach decisions on a case by case basis. But there is very little mystery surrounding Stanton. Trading the pitcher for the position player makes alot of sense in this case.

Brutus
05-25-2012, 10:50 AM
That is a big step to take as far as assumptions go. I think it could go either way, with a lean towards him being a great starter. Now who is right? Who knows.

He's got a swinging strike rate of 18% right now. That's downright ridiculous. You'd have a very hard time convincing me that would not translate into some sort of success as a starting pitcher. You don't go from a filthy 18% to being a middling starter with that kind of stuff.

kaldaniels
05-25-2012, 10:58 AM
He's got a swinging strike rate of 18% right now. That's downright ridiculous. You'd have a very hard time convincing me that would not translate into some sort of success as a starting pitcher. You don't go from a filthy 18% to being a middling starter with that kind of stuff.

Papelbon was at 16.8% for a whole season last year.
Clippard at 16.1.
Kimbrel and Venters were at 15.8.

In 20 some innings Chapman (who is filthy) has been better than them, but would you use the above listed SwStr% to justify those guys moving into a rotation?

oregonred
05-25-2012, 02:02 PM
Stanton as a Red = Drool

Might be near the top of a very, very short list for Chapman.

RedFanAlways1966
05-25-2012, 02:21 PM
Here's a little calculus.... Pythag demonstrates that run scoring is roughly 50% of the equation and run prevention is roughly 50% of the equation.

Run prevention is comprised of pitching AND defense. So if one were to parse offense, defense, pitching into percentages based upon their impact on run scoring, it might look something like this: offense (50%) +pitching (35-40%)+defense (10-15%).

A position player influences both offense and defense significantly. Position players in general experience less attrition then pitchers and offense is much easier to model and is thus more reliable to project.

Also while Chapman is electric and a special talent (this I believe everyone in this discussion would stipulate), he currently is a releif pitcher which limits his ulitmate impact. It is no given that he could successfully transition to the rotation, but I agree that it's reasonable to suggest Chapman could become a good starter. It's also very reasonable to suggest that it's not certain that he could.

These assertions are backed by history.

If you want to beat the house more often, go with the position player. No one is arguing being dogmatic about it-approach decisions on a case by case basis. But there is very little mystery surrounding Stanton. Trading the pitcher for the position player makes alot of sense in this case.

So the REDS defense today is not good enough (RF Jay Bruce... since RF is Stanton's spot)? It (and everything in life) can always be better, but you brought up defense. Personally I am very statisfied with today's defense. Not arguing with what you state, but it seems fair to ask if the REDS defense is troublesome or needs improvement.

Since more outs are made via the strikeout (58.9% this year and over 50% for his MLB career) with Mr. Chapman... who cares about defense? ;)

jojo
05-25-2012, 02:46 PM
So the REDS defense today is not good enough (RF Jay Bruce... since RF is Stanton's spot)? It (and everything in life) can always be better, but you brought up defense. Personally I am very statisfied with today's defense. Not arguing with what you state, but it seems fair to ask if the REDS defense is troublesome or needs improvement.

Since more outs are made via the strikeout (58.9% this year and over 50% for his MLB career) with Mr. Chapman... who cares about defense? ;)

Presumably Stanton would play left field.

RedFanAlways1966
05-25-2012, 03:09 PM
Presumably Stanton would play left field.

Presumably Chapman will eventually be a starter ala Walter Johnson (w/out 300+ IP of course).

kaldaniels
05-25-2012, 03:12 PM
Presumably Chapman will eventually be a starter ala Walter Johnson (w/out 300+ IP of course).

Are you indicating Stanton moving seamlessly to LF is as probable as Chapman moving seamlessly to a SP?

Brutus
05-25-2012, 03:22 PM
Papelbon was at 16.8% for a whole season last year.
Clippard at 16.1.
Kimbrel and Venters were at 15.8.

In 20 some innings Chapman (who is filthy) has been better than them, but would you use the above listed SwStr% to justify those guys moving into a rotation?

Perhaps not exclusively. However, some pitchers wind up in the pen because they only have two pitches or don't have the durability to stay healthy for 200 innings. Chapman was not put in the pen for either of those reasons. He has three plus pitches, and while an effective change-up would help a ton, the other three pitches are outstanding enough he could get by without.

There's really no reason Chapman can't cut it as a starter. Last year when he was relying on just two pitches, and having issues with his command, I could see the skepticism. I don't see any reason to be skeptical now. He's pitching well (and doing so out of the wind-up, mind you).

kaldaniels
05-25-2012, 03:27 PM
Perhaps not exclusively. However, some pitchers wind up in the pen because they only have two pitches or don't have the durability to stay healthy for 200 innings. Chapman was not put in the pen for either of those reasons. He has three plus pitches, and while an effective change-up would help a ton, the other three pitches are outstanding enough he could get by without.

There's really no reason Chapman can't cut it as a starter. Last year when he was relying on just two pitches, and having issues with his command, I could see the skepticism. I don't see any reason to be skeptical now. He's pitching well (and doing so out of the wind-up, mind you).

The durability to go 200 IP is my concern.

Bumstead
05-25-2012, 03:28 PM
2 things:

1) Florida wouldn't even consider it.

2) Top pitching wins in the playoffs. Top pitching wins the World Series. You can hit all you want but if you don't have the pitching come playoff time, it is unlikely that you are going to win the big trophy.

I never saw Randy Johnson close during the regular season. I see no reason for Chapman to be doing so now. Y'all have preached about how easy it is to find relievers and closers and yet we have a management team that can't seem to do it. So, we waste a potential #1 starter as a closer (and yeah, he's been awesome, why wouldn't he be?).

Meanwhile, we will hit the playoffs with a group of 4 starters as follows:

Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, and Bailey

That's not good enough.

This sounds close:

Cueto, Chapman, Latos and Bailey or just go with 3. I like Bailey and I like Leake but neither have Chapman's talent and both were beat out this spring. Time to stop coddling and just hurt somebody's feelings. Plus, since it is so easy to find relievers or to be a reliever/closer, then the guy whose feelings get hurt can close.

Bum

RedFanAlways1966
05-25-2012, 04:17 PM
Are you indicating Stanton moving seamlessly to LF is as probable as Chapman moving seamlessly to a SP?

I have indicated nothing. I have presumed. This whole thread is fantasy, so no ill intent meant. I just like to stress how important pitching is in baseball. And I like to think knowledgable REDS fans that are older than 16 should get that. I do understand that everyone has their own opinion and that is good. But they do not make up sayings like "good pitching beats good hitting" for shats and giggles. It does not hold true (like anything) 100% of the time, but a 0.00 ERA is pretty impressive. As is Stanton's OPS at a young age. However, I am not aware of the saying "good hitting beats good pitching". I am aware of the REDS via 2003-2009. I thought most here were too. How soon we forget...

oregonred
05-25-2012, 04:50 PM
2 things:

Y'all have preached about how easy it is to find relievers and closers and yet we have a management team that can't seem to do it. So, we waste a potential #1 starter as a closer (and yeah, he's been awesome, why wouldn't he be?).


Bum

Funny thing is this management team has no problem finding high quality relievers on the waiver wire. Arredondo, Simon both recovered from the scrap heap. Ondrusek, Lecure, Hoover and Marshall are more than an adequate pen worse case.

Chapman/Cueto/Latos would be a sweet 1-2-3 to match up with anyone in a playoff series though.

It is a good problem if the worst that happens is we witness 75-80IP of the greatest relief pitching numbers in MLB history.

Attendance - Think of the draw the Reds would get knowing that Chapman was going to the mound every 5th home game. His starts would take on a life of its own in Cincinnati and around the league. I think they are crazy not to go the starting route, but they have created a lot of national buzz and attention regardless and Chapman has been a big part of the 21-11 run over the last month.

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2012, 05:22 PM
Interesting that he started his career in the Reds org. as a starter. You left that out of your analysis. Also, as has been pointed out elsewhere, you are no less than saying there was a whole lot of lying going on this spring. Somebody's on a soapbox.

Wasting a prize arm as a 1 inning guy? You're damn right I'm on a soapbox about this.

Someone needs to say it. The Reds are wasting the most electric arm they've had in my lifetime. There were legitimate questions about whether Chapman could show command. He's dialed back his delivery to the "just" 97-100 MPH and shown fantastic control. He's answered the only real question I had about him going into the rotation.

Instead of at least exploring the possibility that he could give the Reds something they haven't had in decades -- a true hammer, TOR, #1 starter -- they're content with letting him be a role player.

As a fan of baseball, that's sad. As a fan of the Reds, that's even sadder.

Vottomatic
05-25-2012, 05:22 PM
Chapman, Hamilton, Heisey for Stanton.

Bumstead
05-25-2012, 05:26 PM
Chapman, Hamilton, Heisey for Stanton.

Hilarious...how about we just part with Chapman and our entire minor league system for Stanton and then still not win anything other than the division?

Florida is still not interested...

Bumstead
05-25-2012, 05:28 PM
Wasting a prize arm as a 1 inning guy? You're damn right I'm on a soapbox about this.

Someone needs to say it. The Reds are wasting the most electric arm they've had in my lifetime. There were legitimate questions about whether Chapman could show command. He's dialed back his delivery to the "just" 97-100 MPH and shown fantastic control. He's answered the only real question I had about him going into the rotation.

Instead of at least exploring the possibility that he could give the Reds something they haven't had in decades -- a true hammer, TOR, #1 starter -- they're content with letting him be a role player.

As a fan of baseball, that's sad. As a fan of the Reds, that's even sadder.

If it were the Cubs we would all be making fun of them. Now most of this board is justifying the stupidity that borders on Cub-like actions.

Bum

jojo
05-25-2012, 06:15 PM
Presumably Chapman will eventually be a starter ala Walter Johnson (w/out 300+ IP of course).

There is every reason to believe that Stanton could transition from one corner to another without much problem.

It's a much bigger assumption that Chapman could transition from the pen to becoming Walter Johnson without much problem.

It's a very important point.

Brutus
05-25-2012, 07:05 PM
If it were the Cubs we would all be making fun of them. Now most of this board is justifying the stupidity that borders on Cub-like actions.

Bum

Scoreboard.

redsfandan
05-25-2012, 08:42 PM
Chapman, Hamilton, Heisey for Stanton.
Maybe not THAT much but I bet the Reds would have to give up more than Chapman alone to get Stanton.

This is a trade scenario that would only happen on an internet message board. It's fun to think about though.

Funny thing is this management team has no problem finding high quality relievers on the waiver wire. Arredondo, Simon both recovered from the scrap heap. Ondrusek, Lecure, Hoover and Marshall are more than an adequate pen worse case.

Chapman/Cueto/Latos would be a sweet 1-2-3 to match up with anyone in a playoff series though.

It is a good problem if the worst that happens is we witness 75-80IP of the greatest relief pitching numbers in MLB history.

Attendance - Think of the draw the Reds would get knowing that Chapman was going to the mound every 5th home game. His starts would take on a life of its own in Cincinnati and around the league. I think they are crazy not to go the starting route, but they have created a lot of national buzz and attention regardless and Chapman has been a big part of the 21-11 run over the last month.
I also dream of a Reds rotation that starts with Chapman/Latos/Cueto. But, no matter what we think about it, Chapman probably isn't going to be in the rotation anytime soon. Even if Chapman was already in the rotation I'd still be tempted to trade him for Stanton.

Think of what would happen to the attendance if the middle of the lineup had Votto, Stanton, and Bruce. Remember back when Sosa, McGwire, and Bonds were getting all the headlines, and helping baseball bounce back after a strike a few years before, thanks to their mammoth homers? Offense gets more headlines than pitching. Add Stanton and the Reds would get those kind of headlines and would draw thousands to see all the fireworks. The Reds wouldn't have to worry AT ALL about offense for a few years at least. The Reds pitching is in pretty good shape. Add Stanton to the heart of the lineup and I think the lineup could scare some opposing teams/pitchers and possibly give us a chance for 100 wins and not just for only one year. THAT would be a fun thing to come to the ballpark and watch.

Again, I know this is just a hypothetical trade and I really like the potential of Chapman but I wouldn't hesitate with this call.

Tom Servo
05-25-2012, 08:47 PM
I guess some people don't get the idea of "hypothetical" polls, it means it won't happen.

RedFanAlways1966
05-25-2012, 11:45 PM
It's a much bigger assumption that Chapman could transition from the pen to becoming Walter Johnson without much problem.

It's a very important point.

Glad you mention this aspect. WTH? Not you, the REDS braintrust. I admit there should be questions asked about "can he do it"... and have to be successful (key!) or many people will question the transition. Kind of tough to attempt to do what you have done this year from the pen as a starter. He has been out of this world. Exaggeration? I don't think so. I have a hard time remembering someone in my lifetime who has dominated MLB hitters like this guy during this 2-month stretch (and exciting...he is THE SHOW when pitching). Has anyone in REDS history done what this guy has done in his first 25 innings of a season? The most dominant 25 consecutive innings ever for a very old pro team? Wow.

He is young. He looks strong and physically fit. WTH is he doing in the pen? Put him in the rotation ASAP. Do not be stupid and overdo do him right away. But start building those innings in a structured way and limit. Get him there while young and strong. Good lord, has he ever had an injury while with the REDS organization? Good mechanics? Rare physical ability and strength (not prone to injury)? The ability to throw 100 mph and make humans that get paid millions of $$$ b/c of their ability to hit a baseball look helpless? Ks/9... are you kidding me? What is the record for a single season for Ks/9? This guy has the ability to be the greatest REDS pitcher ever. DO IT. Of course I am selfish and as a diehard would love to have the chance to see my Sandy Koufax... but it is more help to the team, success as a starter vs success as a reliever. It is a step that should have been taken already no matter the injuries to others (lame excuse). As long as he does not get hurt (has not been yet) and of course keeps that command, he should dominate as well. I do not care if you have seen this guy already that day. It is not going to be fun the 2nd or 3rd time either. Here is the bat... good luck.

Maybe not The Big Train (that is not fair to any human), but the chance to be the best ever for the REDS and our Koufax. DO IT. Take that chance. Guys who can get 3 outs are not as important as guys you hope can get 27 outs.

jojo
05-26-2012, 12:05 AM
Chapman basically has a fastball and a slider. He's essentially abandoned his curve and change up as a major leaguer. Also it's reasonable to expect that as a starter he'd work at a velocity about 3mph slower ( I.e he's been working his fastball at 97 on average this year so figure 94 mph as a starter).

A two pitch arsenal at that velocity can be effective as a starter but it's not nearly as fearsome when having to go though a lineup several times.

Chapman's ceiling was always a TOR guy with his most likely destiny being a high leverage pen arm. The Reds seem happy to settle for a bird in hand at the present moment.

jojo
05-26-2012, 12:05 AM
Dp

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2012, 02:06 AM
Chapman basically has a fastball and a slider. He's essentially abandoned his curve and change up as a major leaguer. Also it's reasonable to expect that as a starter he'd work at a velocity about 3mph slower ( I.e he's been working his fastball at 97 on average this year so figure 94 mph as a starter).

A two pitch arsenal at that velocity can be effective as a starter but it's not nearly as fearsome when having to go though a lineup several times.

Chapman's ceiling was always a TOR guy with his most likely destiny being a high leverage pen arm. The Reds seem happy to settle for a bird in hand at the present moment.

Chapman is already working at "starter speed" right now -- he stopped trying to throw 100+ on every pitch in the offseason and discovered his command improved substantially.

I don't think you'd see his fastball dip below what it's currently at.

RedsManRick
05-26-2012, 01:54 PM
The bigger concern with Chapman as a starter is the lack of variation in velocity among his pitches. Unlike the other hard throwing lefties (Price, Moore, Duffy), Chapman doesn't have a slow pitch to offset his fastball. If he's locating and has command of his slider, it may not matter, but he's pretty unique in that respect.

jojo
05-26-2012, 02:50 PM
The bigger concern with Chapman as a starter is the lack of variation in velocity among his pitches. Unlike the other hard throwing lefties (Price, Moore, Duffy), Chapman doesn't have a slow pitch to offset his fastball. If he's locating and has command of his slider, it may not matter, but he's pretty unique in that respect.

He uses his slider as his off speed pitch. The potential issue would be platoon splits.

Vottomatic
05-26-2012, 04:42 PM
Hilarious...how about we just part with Chapman and our entire minor league system for Stanton and then still not win anything other than the division?

Florida is still not interested...

Well, we wouldn't be giving up all of minor leagues. Basicaly Billy Hamilton, who is well known due to his base stealing and speed. I'm not convinced that the kid will ever play in the major leagues, but many other people are convinced that he will.

If you acquire Stanton, the Reds outfield is set for the next 3+ years. Other than 3B, the other infiedl positions are set for years to come (Votto, BP, Cozart, Hanigan/Mez).

Sure, you can never have enough pitching, but the Reds are currently bouncing around the top 10 in team e.r.a. in mlb. The bullpen is lights out. The starting rotation is the best they've had in a long, long time.

So, other than 3B, where are all these minor leaguers going to play at the major league level for the Reds?

I say go fill the last positions of need, LF and 3B, by trading away these minor leaguers who have no where to go at the major league level. Let's make this team even stronger.

The Reds would have to overpay to get Stanton, if Miami would even think about it. I realize this is all "hypothetical". But it's not like one team is fleecing the other team. These are two really good players involved.

Blitz Dorsey
05-26-2012, 05:34 PM
New poll: Would the Marlins seriously consider this trade?

A. No

B. Heck No

RedFanAlways1966
05-26-2012, 08:32 PM
New poll: Would the Marlins seriously consider this trade?

Another new poll...

Right now who is the most dominate pitcher in MLB for one inning?

A. Chapman

B. You are drunk if you look past A.

And people here would trade that. People here think he cannot be a starter or will be nothing special (lose MORE velocity? no proof of that). This guy is on your fav team. You have refused to name all those dominant pitchers on this team in the last 10 years. You fail to remember what happened to the pitching staff in that one year when a division was finally won. You fail to remember a team with a better staff (pitching, pitching, pitching!!) knocked out that division winner in the playoffs. Sent our team to the off-seaosn halladay. I think I need to get drunk to cure me of the disgust I have for the most loyal fans of my fav team.

He is the last guy MLB hitters want to face people. Even your man STANTON does not want to face him. We do not need a poll of players to know this is fact. He has learned command. I firmly believe he can learn to start. Like he did in Cuba... oh yea, been there done that. Anyone have the velocity from those days. 92? 93? Or higher? And you want to trade him for a bat. 1990 (pitcher, not player, WS MVP for those w/ short memories) has been a long time.

Vottomatic
05-27-2012, 08:38 AM
Another new poll...

Right now who is the most dominate pitcher in MLB for one inning?

A. Chapman

B. You are drunk if you look past A.

And people here would trade that. People here think he cannot be a starter or will be nothing special (lose MORE velocity? no proof of that). This guy is on your fav team. You have refused to name all those dominant pitchers on this team in the last 10 years. You fail to remember what happened to the pitching staff in that one year when a division was finally won. You fail to remember a team with a better staff (pitching, pitching, pitching!!) knocked out that division winner in the playoffs. Sent our team to the off-seaosn halladay. I think I need to get drunk to cure me of the disgust I have for the most loyal fans of my fav team.

He is the last guy MLB hitters want to face people. Even your man STANTON does not want to face him. We do not need a poll of players to know this is fact. He has learned command. I firmly believe he can learn to start. Like he did in Cuba... oh yea, been there done that. Anyone have the velocity from those days. 92? 93? Or higher? And you want to trade him for a bat. 1990 (pitcher, not player, WS MVP for those w/ short memories) has been a long time.

Offense, not pitching, is the Reds problem, last night notwithstanding. Chapman is not going to start this year per a quote from Walt. The losses of Madson, Masset and Bray have solidified that decision.

We don't even know if Chapman will be a good starter. So what if he pitched well in Spring Training. That was a small sample.

Stanton is probably the best young power hitter in the game right now. I believe he's only 22 years old. He's righthanded. How freakin' good would Votto be with Stanton hitting behind him?

Who is more likely to get hurt, a pitcher or position player?

Trade while the value is high.

Orenda
05-27-2012, 04:55 PM
Tough call. Both guys have the talent to be all stars for a decade but given the hitter friendly environment of gabp I think u keep the pitching and wait for the next undervalued hitter to fall to u. On an unrelated note, I like miami's new stadium, but I can't help but think that a carney is going to come out from behind that display in left field and try to get me to throw darts at balloons.

Bumstead
05-29-2012, 11:39 AM
Scoreboard.

You can say that every year, it doesn't change the silliness of the situation as far as I'm concerned. Not even sure the point of your post...

Bum

CySeymour
05-29-2012, 11:43 AM
Sorry guys, this trade idea isn't even worth thinking about. There is no way on Earth that Miami would do that trade. None. And if I were them, I wouldn't either.

RedlegJake
05-29-2012, 12:14 PM
Well, this has drifted away from the point of the post. It's hypothetical. IF Miami would do it....would you? And he said in the post it wouldn't be done it was hypothetical...

YES. I still answer yes. Easily.

Bumstead
05-29-2012, 12:16 PM
Let's start another Hypothetical: Janish for Harper. It's hypothetical...I would do it...

RedlegJake
05-29-2012, 12:37 PM
Let's start another Hypothetical: Janish for Harper. It's hypothetical...I would do it...

C'mon. You really needed to get that 1,000 post didn't you. Stretched for it...

Vottomatic
05-29-2012, 02:07 PM
Let's start another Hypothetical: Janish for Harper. It's hypothetical...I would do it...

I got an even better hypothetical........Costanzo for Josh Hamilton......I would do it......

Bumstead
05-29-2012, 02:47 PM
I got an even better hypothetical........Costanzo for Josh Hamilton......I would do it......

Me too! :beerme:

Bumstead
05-29-2012, 02:48 PM
C'mon. You really needed to get that 1,000 post didn't you. Stretched for it...

Didn't even know. Thanks for pointing it out. Probably better than some, worse than others...

Bum

RedlegJake
05-29-2012, 02:53 PM
Didn't even know. Thanks for pointing it out. Probably better than some, worse than others...

Bum

LOL. You're a good poster. I was ribbin' ya.

Bumstead
05-29-2012, 03:09 PM
LOL. You're a good poster. I was ribbin' ya.

No worries. You are probably in the minority with that thought though! ;)