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View Full Version : Is this the real Homer Bailey?



RedEye
05-24-2012, 11:18 PM
Quality starts in 7 of 9 games this year, and he no longer seems to wilt so quickly under pressure. The Braves are a very good hitting team, and he looked solid this evening.

Many argue that his biggest problem over the past few years has been health -- something he seems to have figured out this year *KNOCK ON WOOD* 6.7 Kd9 has me a bit worried that this is all a mirage though (I think even that number has seen an uptick over his last few outings though).

Thoughts? Is this a sustainable performance level for our favorite erstwhile elite pitching prospect? And is this as good as it gets for Homer?

Homer Bailey
05-24-2012, 11:25 PM
I've argued that Homer is a much better pitcher than his ERA has shown the past few years because of his strong K rate. His K rate has fallen pretty far, but his results have been slightly better so far this year. I'm a bit nervous that it's a mirage, because of the ratios, so I'm not thumping my chest just yet.

VR
05-24-2012, 11:26 PM
.500 record w/ a 4.19 earnie? Yes, I believe that is who Homer is and will be his entire career.

jhu1321
05-24-2012, 11:58 PM
Most of that era came from one bad start against the Brewers. he keeps this up he'll be well over .500 and his ERA will be in the low 3's.

dougdirt
05-25-2012, 12:22 AM
Most of that era came from one bad start against the Brewers. he keeps this up he'll be well over .500 and his ERA will be in the low 3's.

3.42 ERA in every game except the Brewers game. Needs to avoid the 'Brewers game', but Bailey has been pretty darn good this year.

Superdude
05-25-2012, 12:26 AM
I'll take him every day as a #4 guy. Nice to see him finally getting some movement on that splitter. It all comes down to the fastball though IMO. If he stays healthy and gets that late season velocity spike ala 2010, this division will be staring at tail pipe all summer long.

RedEye
05-25-2012, 12:34 AM
I've argued that Homer is a much better pitcher than his ERA has shown the past few years because of his strong K rate. His K rate has fallen pretty far, but his results have been slightly better so far this year. I'm a bit nervous that it's a mirage, because of the ratios, so I'm not thumping my chest just yet.

Ridiculously small sample size caveats understood, he does have 13 K in his last 12 innings, which would put the Kd9 back up in good company indeed.

Topcat
05-25-2012, 12:48 AM
I hope so , sadly because of the hype he is expected to do more but he is still very young and I want to keep him as a Reds fan.

WVRedsFan
05-25-2012, 01:11 AM
I'm not worried about what he does beyond his next start. So far, so good. Do I expect him to win the Cy Young? No. As a fourth starter, he's doing pretty good. Will he ever be an ace? Nope.

marcshoe
05-25-2012, 02:14 AM
I've been saying for a while now that I expect Homer to turn into a solid major league starter and remain one for a long while. I want to believe that this is what we're seeing now. I know he's pitched well at times before, but I think he's settling in now.

It's entirely possible that as Bronson ages, Homer will take his place as the dependable mid-rotation guy that keeps teams from falling apart.

Redhook
05-25-2012, 08:27 AM
Quality starts in 7 of 9 games this year

This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.

dougdirt
05-25-2012, 08:35 AM
This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.

Probably because if you give up 3 runs in 6 innings you gave your team a chance to win the game.

MikeS21
05-25-2012, 09:06 AM
This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.
I think also that it should depend on who you are playing. Holding a team like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, or Rangers to three runs over six innings is a far better start than holding the Pirates, Cubs, or Twins to three runs over six innings.

dunner13
05-25-2012, 09:07 AM
I haven't watched a ton of homer pitching this year so I could be wrong but it seems like his fastball is sitting 90-92? I thought this was a guy who threw 94-95? Am I wrong did he never throw that hard or did he develop a cut fastball or something?

MikeS21
05-25-2012, 09:11 AM
I haven't watched a ton of homer pitching this year so I could be wrong but it seems like his fastball is sitting 90-92? I thought this was a guy who threw 94-95? Am I wrong did he never throw that hard or did he develop a cut fastball or something?
He has scaled back a notch, but I saw a LOT of 93 mph fastballs last night and a few 94 mph fastballs. His last start, I remember seeing at least three 95 mph fastballs, and even one 96 mph heater. But mostly, he sits around 91-93.

IMO, the harder he throws, the straighter the pitches. Maybe it is just me, but he seems to have better movement at 92 than he does at 95 mph.

dunner13
05-25-2012, 09:35 AM
He has scaled back a notch, but I saw a LOT of 93 mph fastballs last night and a few 94 mph fastballs. His last start, I remember seeing at least three 95 mph fastballs, and even one 96 mph heater. But mostly, he sits around 91-93.

IMO, the harder he throws, the straighter the pitches. Maybe it is just me, but he seems to have better movement at 92 than he does at 95 mph.

Makes sense, thanks!

GoReds
05-25-2012, 09:41 AM
I don't know what was going on in the Brewers game in which he was just pumping the fastball and nothing else, but it does appear that he has started mixing up is pitches better which is making his fastball more effective.

I don't think I have any higher asprirations for Homer - I think this is his peak, which is not a bad place to be.

NJReds
05-25-2012, 09:43 AM
It seems like he's mentally tougher, not giving in when things start to go bad. I was at the Yankees game, and there were a couple times where I expected the Yanks were on the verge of a rally, but Homer stayed focused and seemed calm. Maybe it's just maturity.

klw
05-25-2012, 09:46 AM
This really doesn't have anything to do with Homer, but why is it considered a quality start when someone gives up 3 runs in 6 innings? A 4.50 era is almost garbage, not quality, especially with the league-wide era decreases in recent years. It should be 6 innings giving up 2 or less runs like Homer did last night. I don't get it.
From Wikipedia citing to this article- http://207.56.97.150/articles/qstart.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.[3]

Chip R
05-25-2012, 10:23 AM
I see that the Homer Bailey bandwagon has a lot of people jumping back on.

cumberlandreds
05-25-2012, 10:25 AM
I see that the Homer Bailey bandwagon has a lot of people jumping back on.

That's what we fans do best. Bandwagon jump. :D

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2012, 10:44 AM
Some of us never got off. *grin*

lollipopcurve
05-25-2012, 11:41 AM
He has slowly but surely improved. That continues. I've never bought that he was mentally weak or that he imploded at the first sign of adversity. I like his competitiveness, always have. It's just been a process -- slowed primarily by some arm woes and uncertainty about what secondary mix would work best for him. I like where he is right now. Let's hope he can establish some durability this year.

kaldaniels
05-25-2012, 11:55 AM
Fun Homer Stats

- Only 6 NL pitchers have more quality starts than Homer

- Only 1 NL pitcher has given up more HR than Homer

dougdirt
05-25-2012, 12:01 PM
- Only 1 NL pitcher has given up more HR than Homer
Here is another fun one on that one:

Three of Homer's home runs allowed would have gone out in 1 (NYY), 1 (NYY) and 2 (CIN) parks in all of baseball. He just happened to be pitching in those parks that day. Talk about bad luck.

bucksfan2
05-25-2012, 12:14 PM
Fun Homer Stats

- Only 6 NL pitchers have more quality starts than Homer

- Only 1 NL pitcher has given up more HR than Homer

With Homer on the mound its almost uncanny when you feel something bad happen. Its like he makes a mistake and then lets it compound quickly. Jeff was talking about it during last nights game. He made a mistake to the P and then the very next batter, Borne, takes him deep. His mistakes tend to be left right over the middle of the plate and tend to travel beyond the fences.

If he is able to harness that, keep his focus, his upside is much higher. Its almost as if the catcher needs to take a trip to the mound when you can see the frustration beginning to build. Last night after the pitcher got a hit I was thinking to myself, Mesoraco needs to head out to the mound to keep Homer's focus.

jhu1321
05-25-2012, 12:25 PM
With Homer on the mound its almost uncanny when you feel something bad happen. Its like he makes a mistake and then lets it compound quickly. Jeff was talking about it during last nights game. He made a mistake to the P and then the very next batter, Borne, takes him deep. His mistakes tend to be left right over the middle of the plate and tend to travel beyond the fences.

If he is able to harness that, keep his focus, his upside is much higher. Its almost as if the catcher needs to take a trip to the mound when you can see the frustration beginning to build. Last night after the pitcher got a hit I was thinking to myself, Mesoraco needs to head out to the mound to keep Homer's focus.


That's true for the most part but Bourne hit his dinger last night off a pitch that was WAY up & in. Not sure how he turned on that one.

oregonred
05-25-2012, 01:58 PM
Homer just needs to stay healthy this season. Solid #3 type starter slotted in a #4/5 role with the club. Perfect fit. If Homer stays solid and healthy then 90+ wins looks very likely.

So much more enjoyable to watch everyone on the staff pitch this season - no more retreads, no more Volquez 120 pitch 4 inning/6 BB games. Homer does seem much more like a "real" pitcher this season. Thank goodness they didn't give away his arm somewhere along the line. Part of the maturity process.