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View Full Version : Will Billy Hamilton be moved to CF?



rgslone
05-31-2012, 08:47 PM
I'm guessing yes. And, unless he's viewed as trade bait, I'd like to see it done sooner rather than later. I believe CF gets him to the majors quicker.

camisadelgolf
05-31-2012, 09:04 PM
Personally, I'd be more focused on getting him to the majors longer--not just sooner. One thing I know is that his bat plays better at shortstop, so if he can handle the position well, why not keep him there?

treetops
06-01-2012, 12:18 AM
Keith Law on this, from around 28mins:
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7992931

Says moving him to CF makes a lot of sense since he's potentially plus there.

powersackers
06-01-2012, 12:41 AM
He's plus plus in the lead off spot. Get him in the lineup somewhere, don't care where.

camisadelgolf
06-01-2012, 12:57 AM
Keith Law on this, from around 28mins:
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=7992931

Says moving him to CF makes a lot of sense since he's potentially plus there.
I think you could make a good argument for both keeping him at short and moving him to center. But why risk messing up his development before necessary?

JayStubbs
06-01-2012, 03:35 AM
I think you could make a good argument for both keeping him at short and moving him to center. But why risk messing up his development before necessary?

Exactly. It takes maybe a month for a SS to master playing CF. There is no need to move him to CF until it's necessary.

He's at least a year away from the majors, and a lot can happen between now and then. Cozart could get injured, traded or just stop producing and Hamilton would be needed to play SS. Keep him there until you know for sure he's going to be a CF.

dougdirt
06-01-2012, 07:01 AM
He's plus plus in the lead off spot. Get him in the lineup somewhere, don't care where.

Doubtful he would be 'plus plus' in the leadoff spot. Probably going to need to be Ichiro in his prime to be that and he just isn't that kind of guy.

rgslone
06-01-2012, 08:58 AM
I listened to the Keith Law discussion teetops linked. His opinion was that Hamilton isn't likely a big league SS due to his arm, and he perceived his best value in CF. The kind of speed Hamilton has and his apparent OBP% skills (which, hopefully, will continue to develop) would be a major asset in CF. Moving him to CF isn't like trying to put him at 3B or LF, etc. where his skill set wouldn't play as well.

bucksfan2
06-01-2012, 12:20 PM
If you were the Reds and your in playoff contention or in the playoffs would you burn an option to get Billy Hamilton onto the major league club? The thing his speed is such a difference maker that when the rosters expand and a playoff roster doesn't need as many starters why not use a spot on a guy who could change the game as a pinch runner? Its better than seeing Mesoraco run for Hanigan isn't it?

camisadelgolf
06-01-2012, 01:21 PM
Hamilton can throw the ball over 90 MPH. I'm really sick of hearing how his arm is going to be the reason he moves off of shortstop.

dougdirt
06-01-2012, 01:34 PM
Hamilton can throw the ball over 90 MPH. I'm really sick of hearing how his arm is going to be the reason he moves off of shortstop.

I am curious as to where you saw that. I have been a proponent of the 'his arm is strong enough for shortstop', but I have never confused his arm with one that could throw 90 MPH like Paul Janish.

bellhead
06-01-2012, 01:59 PM
I think Billy's future is in CF only because Cozart is >>>>> Stubbs...

Stubbs is becoming my lease favorite player on the team with his hit it out of the park mentality...

dougdirt
06-01-2012, 02:20 PM
I think Billy's future is in CF only because Cozart is >>>>> Stubbs...

Stubbs is becoming my lease favorite player on the team with his hit it out of the park mentality...

I feel that I should just point out that Stubbs career OPS is higher than the one Cozart is currently sporting and Stubbs is all of one year older than Cozart is.

camisadelgolf
06-01-2012, 03:02 PM
I am curious as to where you saw that. I have been a proponent of the 'his arm is strong enough for shortstop', but I have never confused his arm with one that could throw 90 MPH like Paul Janish.
I'm having trouble finding it right now, but I remember thinking, "Wow, really?" But then I researched it and discovered they didn't mean from the shortstop position. Throwing from the mound gives a player a distinct advantage.

TOBTTReds
06-01-2012, 06:17 PM
I'm having trouble finding it right now, but I remember thinking, "Wow, really?" But then I researched it and discovered they didn't mean from the shortstop position. Throwing from the mound gives a player a distinct advantage.

I read it on BA this past week I think. His former HS coach mentioned it. But regardless, I'm in the camp that he doesn't have the arm to be a plus SS. Even if he did have the arm, with that speed, I'd love to have him in CF.

camisadelgolf
06-01-2012, 06:35 PM
I read it on BA this past week I think. His former HS coach mentioned it. But regardless, I'm in the camp that he doesn't have the arm to be a plus SS. Even if he did have the arm, with that speed, I'd love to have him in CF.
Yeah, that was it. I thought I had read it online, but it was printed in the second-to-last issue I got.

bellhead
06-02-2012, 10:48 AM
I feel that I should just point out that Stubbs career OPS is higher than the one Cozart is currently sporting and Stubbs is all of one year older than Cozart is.

This is Stubbs 3rd year in the major he has regressed by not closing any holes in his swing and refuses to make any changes, also his minor league track record shows no improvement in this area. Cozart plays SS which is traditionally harder to find players for than CF, and this is his first full year in the league.

Both though are excellent defenders, so take the good with the bad.

dougdirt
06-02-2012, 10:57 AM
This is Stubbs 3rd year in the major he has regressed by not closing any holes in his swing and refuses to make any changes, also his minor league track record shows no improvement in this area. Cozart plays SS which is traditionally harder to find players for than CF, and this is his first full year in the league.

Both though are excellent defenders, so take the good with the bad.

HE refuses? You asked him? You talked to his coaches who told you that? By the way, his strikeout rate this year is down from last year by a decent amount.

Shortstops and center fielders are essentially the same in terms of 'hard to find'. And while Stubbs has 'regressed' some, we also know that Stubbs has been around the league 15 times and Cozart hasn't been around once. Stubbs BABIP is way down from his career norms too. It will return and when it does, he is probably a .700 OPS bat.

Not that I would say either guy is better than the other, but that is kind of the point.... you are derailing one while not derailing the other, when they are essentially the same guy at this point.

bellhead
06-02-2012, 11:21 AM
HE refuses? You asked him? You talked to his coaches who told you that? By the way, his strikeout rate this year is down from last year by a decent amount.

Shortstops and center fielders are essentially the same in terms of 'hard to find'. And while Stubbs has 'regressed' some, we also know that Stubbs has been around the league 15 times and Cozart hasn't been around once. Stubbs BABIP is way down from his career norms too. It will return and when it does, he is probably a .700 OPS bat.

Not that I would say either guy is better than the other, but that is kind of the point.... you are derailing one while not derailing the other, when they are essentially the same guy at this point.

What I meant for Stubbs is his swing is still very long, and he swings so hard he looks off balance...

dougdirt
06-02-2012, 11:24 AM
What I meant for Stubbs is his swing is still very long, and he swings so hard he looks off balance...

He is off balance often, because he can't read a slider/curve. Puts him on his front foot with him then just reaching because he realizes too late that he thought it was a different pitch.

bellhead
06-02-2012, 11:31 AM
Let's just say I'm not a big Stubbs fan when he's at bath..

dougdirt
06-02-2012, 11:37 AM
Let's just say I'm not a big Stubbs fan when he's at bath..

Well you shouldn't be much of a fan of most guys on this team at the plate because most of them can't hit any better than Stubbs can.

rgslone
06-02-2012, 11:46 AM
HE refuses? You asked him? You talked to his coaches who told you that? By the way, his strikeout rate this year is down from last year by a decent amount.

Shortstops and center fielders are essentially the same in terms of 'hard to find'. And while Stubbs has 'regressed' some, we also know that Stubbs has been around the league 15 times and Cozart hasn't been around once. Stubbs BABIP is way down from his career norms too. It will return and when it does, he is probably a .700 OPS bat.

Not that I would say either guy is better than the other, but that is kind of the point.... you are derailing one while not derailing the other, when they are essentially the same guy at this point.

But Doug. . . would you deny that, for whatever reason, Stubbs hasn't made adjustments that have been reflected in outcome? Moreover, Stubbs has stated on more than one occassion (the last being about a week ago) that he didn't see any need to alter his approach to hitting to lessen strikeouts - the jist of which I took to mean he thought maintaining his power was more important. Now, I don't know how much a guy like Stubbs (i.e., a guy who has alwyas struck out a lot) can improve his contact rate, but I would have to think there are things that can be taught or different approaches to hitting that would somewhat improve one's ability to make contact and/or get on base more. If that's correct, then I would mainly blame the organization; and at this point I would think that it's getting a little late and Stubbs is probably too entrenched in his approach to change much.

As for the comparison of Stubbs and Cozart hitting ability, you've seen them both for a while now, both coming up in the minors and now in the big leagues, so I would have to defer to your opinion; but it just looks to me like Cozart has better contact skills - whether it will play out like that over the whole season I don't know.

dougdirt
06-02-2012, 12:00 PM
But Doug. . . would you deny that, for whatever reason, Stubbs hasn't made adjustments that have been reflected in outcome? Moreover, Stubbs has stated on more than one occassion (the last being about a week ago) that he didn't see any need to alter his approach to hitting to lessen strikeouts - the jist of which I took to mean he thought maintaining his power was more important. Now, I don't know how much a guy like Stubbs (i.e., a guy who has alwyas struck out a lot) can improve his contact rate, but I would have to think there are things that can be taught or different approaches to hitting that would somewhat improve one's ability to make contact and/or get on base more. If that's correct, then I would mainly blame the organization; and at this point I would think that it's getting a little late and Stubbs is probably too entrenched in his approach to change much.

As for the comparison of Stubbs and Cozart hitting ability, you've seen them both for a while now, both coming up in the minors and now in the big leagues, so I would have to defer to your opinion; but it just looks to me like Cozart has better contact skills - whether it will play out like that over the whole season I don't know.
Stubbs strikes out because of pitch recognition, not because of his swing or anything to do with it. There is a reason that nearly everyone strikes out and walks at a similar rate as they always do. It isn't some easy fix because it is usually related to the ability to read a pitch quick enough to know what is coming and that generally can't be taught.

Cozart makes more contact, or should. But a lot of guys make more contact than Joey Votto does too. Doesn't mean they are better hitters. If contact rates made good hitters, Juan Pierre would be the best hitter in baseball, not one of the worst.

RedsManRick
06-02-2012, 12:14 PM
Stubbs strikes out because of pitch recognition, not because of his swing or anything to do with it. There is a reason that nearly everyone strikes out and walks at a similar rate as they always do. It isn't some easy fix because it is usually related to the ability to read a pitch quick enough to know what is coming and that generally can't be taught.

Cozart makes more contact, or should. But a lot of guys make more contact than Joey Votto does too. Doesn't mean they are better hitters. If contact rates made good hitters, Juan Pierre would be the best hitter in baseball, not one of the worst.

Fans have a very hard time separating skill/ability from approach/effort.

RedlegJake
06-02-2012, 12:23 PM
Ted Williams was a great hitter and one reason was his 20/10 vision. He could see the seams rotating as soon as the ball left the pitchers hand and know what was coming. When he tried to teach hitting it frustrated the heck out of him because other guys couldn't do that. The greatest hitter and student of hitting that ever lived couldn't teach pitch recognition. You're born with it and hone what you're born with but you can't improve what you don't possess.

bellhead
06-02-2012, 02:59 PM
Ted Williams was a great hitter and one reason was his 20/10 vision. He could see the seams rotating as soon as the ball left the pitchers hand and know what was coming. When he tried to teach hitting it frustrated the heck out of him because other guys couldn't do that. The greatest hitter and student of hitting that ever lived couldn't teach pitch recognition. You're born with it and hone what you're born with but you can't improve what you don't possess.

A lot of players have opted for lasik, which gives you close to that vision. I did it 10 years ago and have 20/12...

dougdirt
06-02-2012, 03:02 PM
A lot of players have opted for lasik, which gives you close to that vision. I did it 10 years ago and have 20/12...

I think you are confusing 'a lot' with 'a few'. I can only think of 5 guys off of the top of my head who I know of that have gotten it done and they aren't all Reds.

bellhead
06-02-2012, 03:03 PM
I thought that was the trend the last few years, was to get the surgery.

dougdirt
06-02-2012, 03:04 PM
I thought that was the trend the last few years, was to get the surgery.

Guys who don't need glasses don't tend to opt for such a thing.

Superdude
06-02-2012, 03:57 PM
A lot of players have opted for lasik, which gives you close to that vision. I did it 10 years ago and have 20/12...

Reaction time is probably a much larger factor than vision. Just because you can see the seams doesn't mean you can react accordingly at 90+MPH.

RedlegJake
06-02-2012, 07:31 PM
Reaction time is probably a much larger factor than vision. Just because you can see the seams doesn't mean you can react accordingly at 90+MPH.

Plus if you're born with vision that good you likely have the synaptic connections to your brain to make that reaction, while with lasik those connections aren't there - you see but you still can't react.

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2012, 02:46 AM
Stubbs strikes out because of pitch recognition, not because of his swing or anything to do with it. There is a reason that nearly everyone strikes out and walks at a similar rate as they always do. It isn't some easy fix because it is usually related to the ability to read a pitch quick enough to know what is coming and that generally can't be taught.

Cozart makes more contact, or should. But a lot of guys make more contact than Joey Votto does too. Doesn't mean they are better hitters. If contact rates made good hitters, Juan Pierre would be the best hitter in baseball, not one of the worst.

How do you know it's a pitch recognition issue?

dougdirt
06-04-2012, 06:09 AM
How do you know it's a pitch recognition issue?

Because of how much he is out on his front foot flailing at a breaking ball. He steps too soon because he is reading fastball then had to try and wait, leading to him being way off balance and reaching. If he could read that pitch, he wouldn't step early and be reaching.

lollipopcurve
06-04-2012, 06:56 AM
Because of how much he is out on his front foot flailing at a breaking ball. He steps too soon because he is reading fastball then had to try and wait, leading to him being way off balance and reaching. If he could read that pitch, he wouldn't step early and be reaching.

Stubbs swings through plenty of fastballs. It's not just a matter of pitch recognition -- he may be guessing at times (pitch or location), and he doesn't have the contact skills to compensate when he guesses wrong. He may also have a hole down and in.

bellhead
06-04-2012, 07:38 AM
Billy with another strong day 2 for 5 and a walk. OBP is now at .411.

The last 10 games he has been on fire hitting at .386 average and a .481 obp....

Dan
06-04-2012, 10:24 AM
Billy with another strong day 2 for 5 and a walk. OBP is now at .411.

The last 10 games he has been on fire hitting at .386 average and a .481 obp....

I'd love to cash in while his value is this high. Not for a rental, though. So a Chase Headley type or Denard Span but not Quentin or Willingham.

dougdirt
06-04-2012, 10:36 AM
Stubbs swings through plenty of fastballs. It's not just a matter of pitch recognition -- he may be guessing at times (pitch or location), and he doesn't have the contact skills to compensate when he guesses wrong. He may also have a hole down and in.

Yes, Stubbs swings through plenty of fastballs too. But, in his career, Stubbs has generally hit fastballs well. He generally hasn't hit offspeed stuff well. Stubbs has more going on than just his inability to read certain pitches, but that is the largest part of it.

mace
06-06-2012, 03:51 PM
Baseball Prospectus has a Hamilton story today by Ian Miller, who just wanted to see him play. It includes some video.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17256

fearofpopvol1
06-06-2012, 05:11 PM
I would trade Hamilton now if it will net the Reds a good player who can help the team beyond this year.

Something tells me as well that some teams would bite too.

klw
06-07-2012, 12:25 PM
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/07/fastest-man-in-baseball-on-pace-for-163-steals/

Hamilton stole four bases last night, giving him 67 steals in 56 games this season. Minor-league seasons are 144 games, rather than 162 games, yet he’s still on pace for 163 steals on the year. Seriously: One. Six. Three.

Vottomatic
06-10-2012, 10:02 AM
If the Reds don't move Hamilton to CF, then he is definitely trade bait. Shortstop prospects are valued more higher than non-power hitting CFers. So a non-move is simply because he has more value at SS for some other team. Reds have Cozart, most likely for a long time, and there is zero sense in keeping Hamilton at short. Plus, he's not considered very good defensively.

dougdirt
06-10-2012, 11:28 AM
If the Reds don't move Hamilton to CF, then he is definitely trade bait. Shortstop prospects are valued more higher than non-power hitting CFers. So a non-move is simply because he has more value at SS for some other team. Reds have Cozart, most likely for a long time, and there is zero sense in keeping Hamilton at short. Plus, he's not considered very good defensively.

Have you checked out what Cozart is hitting lately? He is anything but a 'foundation' piece right now.

rgslone
06-11-2012, 12:45 PM
My thinking about moving Hamilton to CF revolved around defense. If his most exceptional skill is speed, then, given his other skills, where is he most valuable? If his defense at SS projects to be at best average (and maybe below average) at the MLB level - and I don't know if this is true, but others have questioned his defense - wouldn't his exceptional speed possibly be better put to use in CF? Of course, that also assumes he can develop into a good fielder? We've had examples of speedy guys who still were'nt very good fielders, right?

Kc61
06-11-2012, 01:10 PM
If the Reds don't move Hamilton to CF, then he is definitely trade bait. Shortstop prospects are valued more higher than non-power hitting CFers. So a non-move is simply because he has more value at SS for some other team. Reds have Cozart, most likely for a long time, and there is zero sense in keeping Hamilton at short. Plus, he's not considered very good defensively.

Hamilton's defensive position will IMO have little or no bearing on his future with the Reds. He is here for his offense, including baserunning. Whether he is a SS, 2B, CF or LF, the Reds will value him very highly and are unlikely to trade him.

Obviously if someone wants to offer the moon for the guy, you take it. But I think the Reds see Hamilton as their lead off man and a star player for the future. I don't think they are too worried about where he plays defensively.

fearofpopvol1
06-11-2012, 01:18 PM
Have you checked out what Cozart is hitting lately? He is anything but a 'foundation' piece right now.

.718 OPS. Another home run or 2 and he's easily in the .750 range, which isn't half bad.

Additionally, Cozart has the 10th best WAR in the majors and 6th best in the NL for qualifying SSs. Not too bad.

HokieRed
06-11-2012, 01:40 PM
.718 OPS. Another home run or 2 and he's easily in the .750 range, which isn't half bad.

Additionally, Cozart has the 10th best WAR in the majors and 6th best in the NL for qualifying SSs. Not too bad.

Wd. look very good in the 8th spot, with Hamilton leading off in CF.

dougdirt
06-11-2012, 01:59 PM
.718 OPS. Another home run or 2 and he's easily in the .750 range, which isn't half bad.

Additionally, Cozart has the 10th best WAR in the majors and 6th best in the NL for qualifying SSs. Not too bad.

.718 OPS is not a guy you don't worry about looking for an upgrade on. He has a .297 OBP. right now. I don't think it will continue being that low, but we are talking about a 26 year old who has a sub .300 OBP in the Majors right now as a reason to move someone else. I like Cozart. But he shouldn't be the reason, at least right now, to move anyone off of shortstop.

rgslone
06-11-2012, 02:49 PM
.718 OPS is not a guy you don't worry about looking for an upgrade on. He has a .297 OBP. right now. I don't think it will continue being that low, but we are talking about a 26 year old who has a sub .300 OBP in the Majors right now as a reason to move someone else. I like Cozart. But he shouldn't be the reason, at least right now, to move anyone off of shortstop.

I would certainly agree that the Reds shouldn't move Hamilton because of Cozart (or anyone else) - and I like Cozart. Still, the issue for me isn't that Hamilton is blocked at SS (in my opinion he isn't) - the issue for me is where is he most valuable defensively given his skill set. You can't just say that defensively SS is more important than CF, or vise versa, b/c the point is Hamilton's skill set in particular, not the positions in general. If he realistically projects as an above average SS, leave him there. If, however, he projects better defensively in CF with that speed, then I would say put him there. Maybe the Reds already know the answer, or maybe it's still to early to tell; I just know that when/if his bat is MLB ready I want him hitting lead-off for the Reds - and the sooner the better.

Tom Servo
06-11-2012, 03:40 PM
I like Cozart. But he shouldn't be the reason, at least right now, to move anyone off of shortstop.
Completely agree.

nemesis
06-11-2012, 04:57 PM
All I envision seeing Hamilton in CF is his insane speed carrying him deep into the gaps quickly and not hearing another OF calling him off... He is so slightly built I could see a collision with Bruce or a wall easily and multiple times. Things like that would rob a player of his speed over time... And keep him out of the lineup alot...

I see a Eric Davis type of defender in CF (who we all know was moved off of SS).

But I also see a player who would be injured about as easily as could be out there...

I'd absolutely keep him at SS and consider trading Cozart at some point. In 2 years, A 28 year old SS with 20 HR power and GG D with 4 years control might bring a very handsome prospect haul back.

Plus Plus
06-11-2012, 05:07 PM
All I envision seeing Hamilton in CF is his insane speed carrying him deep into the gaps quickly and not hearing another OF calling him off... He is so slightly built I could see a collision with Bruce or a wall easily and multiple times. Things like that would rob a player of his speed over time... And keep him out of the lineup alot...

I see a Eric Davis type of defender in CF (who we all know was moved off of SS).

But I also see a player who would be injured about as easily as could be out there...

I'd absolutely keep him at SS and consider trading Cozart at some point. In 2 years, A 28 year old SS with 20 HR power and GG D with 4 years control might bring a very handsome prospect haul back.

Great to see you back here, nemesis! :beerme:

rgslone
06-13-2012, 01:12 PM
On a different Hamilton issue, I was wondering whether his lack of power projection has more to do with his approach or his body/strength? Because if you just look at his body (and I know bat speed, etc. is what's important more so than size), his height/weight ratio is not much different than Eric Davis - and we all know he didn't lack power (although, like a thoroughbred race horse, he did seem somewhat fragile). So, could some of you guys who have seen Hamilton and understand this issue explain to the rest of us why Hamilton doesn't project to be able to hit at least 10 HR per season?

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 01:27 PM
I think it has to do with both high size and his approach. Hamilton actually has good bat speed. He just doesn't have the swing or strength to put it over the fence.

rgslone
06-13-2012, 01:38 PM
I think it has to do with both high size and his approach. Hamilton actually has good bat speed. He just doesn't have the swing or strength to put it over the fence.

Thanks, Doug. But he could certainly improve his strength if it was focused on. So, I'm guessing from your response that his swing is the main long-term reason. If so, is his swing something he or the organization have calculated with the recognition of sacrificing power for a higher contact rate to take advantage of his speed?

MikeS21
06-13-2012, 03:42 PM
Maybe its just me, but if Hamilton will concentrate on improving his OBP skills, I'm not sure the power will be much of an issue. Once he gets on base, he will be disruptive enough. The key is getting on base.

If you haven't already, you need to watch the videos mace posted from Baseball Prospectus a few posts back. In one of the videos, Hamilton came to bat with two outs and a runner at 3B. The opposing pitcher WALKED Hamilton because they figured if he hit the ball on the ground, he would probably beat the throw to 1B, thereby allowing the runner at 3B to score. In another video they showed the defense playing Hamilton at double-play depth when no one else was on base. He shoots the ball past the drawn in infield.

That's what is insane about Hamilton. A simple ground ball becomes an infield hit.

The key for the defense will be keeping Hamilton off the bases, and even from making contact and putting the ball on the ground. The higher level of minor league pitchers are going to put the ball in the strike zone because they don't want to walk Hamilton. Hamilton is going to need to do a MUCH better job handling the bat and pitch recognition in the strike zone.

nemesis
06-13-2012, 06:53 PM
Great to see you back here, nemesis! :beerme:

Thank you Plus Plus...

I've been lurking, but, I am on a drilling rig in deep WV most of the time and have no internet, less my phone, which is super slow out there.

Glad to be able to chime in and spend some quality time watching some of my best internet friends side track threads and argue against their own points again... :thumbup:

OGB
06-13-2012, 11:10 PM
All I envision seeing Hamilton in CF is his insane speed carrying him deep into the gaps quickly and not hearing another OF calling him off... He is so slightly built I could see a collision with Bruce or a wall easily and multiple times. Things like that would rob a player of his speed over time... And keep him out of the lineup alot...

I see a Eric Davis type of defender in CF (who we all know was moved off of SS).

But I also see a player who would be injured about as easily as could be out there...

I'd absolutely keep him at SS and consider trading Cozart at some point. In 2 years, A 28 year old SS with 20 HR power and GG D with 4 years control might bring a very handsome prospect haul back.

I honestly can't see any logical reason to make that connection. Some people are more frail and injury prone than others. Hamilton's speed doesn't necessarily make him someone whose body will break down easily. Part of learning to play CF is communicating with your corner outfielders. Just because he is fast doesn't mean Billy will ignore that part of the game.

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 11:34 PM
That's what is insane about Hamilton. A simple ground ball becomes an infield hit.


Except when it doesn't. Hamilton hit under .200 last year on balls hit to infielders. That is against minor leaguers on minor league quality fields. He isn't going to even be that good on grounders in the Majors. He needs to hit the ball into the outfield just like everyone else does. Sure, he probably legs out a few extra hits a year that other speedsters might not. Still needs to put it in the outfield.

With that said, he has been doing that this year just fine.

MikeS21
06-14-2012, 09:45 AM
Except when it doesn't. Hamilton hit under .200 last year on balls hit to infielders. That is against minor leaguers on minor league quality fields. He isn't going to even be that good on grounders in the Majors. He needs to hit the ball into the outfield just like everyone else does. Sure, he probably legs out a few extra hits a year that other speedsters might not. Still needs to put it in the outfield.

With that said, he has been doing that this year just fine.
From the video and such I have seen from Hamilton, it just appears to me that the more advanced pitchers (AA and above) are going to eat him alive at the plate. Pitchers are not going to walk him. And because he has no power, chances are they are just going to challenge him right in the strike zone. I'm just not that impressed with how he handles the bat. And honestly, his base-stealing technique isn't all that great, either.

I don't think the Reds ought to give up on this kid yet. He's still plenty young and needs a LOT of seasoning. I don not see the need or the wisdom in fast tracking him for AA just because he is putting up good numbers at A+. Let him play the year out at A+ and work on some things to improve his game before he gets to AA and AAA.

Brisco
06-14-2012, 11:06 AM
Just a quick comment about vision and pitch recognition...

Babe Ruth was able to glance at a record playing at 78 rpm and immediatley read the label. I have never met a human that could do that.

I think that pitch recognition is not just based on vision distance quality, but also on some aspect of vision speed. Whoever said something about synaptical development in addition to 20/10 vision was on to something IMO.

bellhead
06-14-2012, 06:07 PM
Just a quick comment about vision and pitch recognition...

Babe Ruth was able to glance at a record playing at 78 rpm and immediatley read the label. I have never met a human that could do that.

I think that pitch recognition is not just based on vision distance quality, but also on some aspect of vision speed. Whoever said something about synaptical development in addition to 20/10 vision was on to something IMO.

Unreal, that would mean a great deal with reading spin of a ball.:thumbup:

Off topic on NPR today they had an hour long special on bird vision, and what they have been able to deduce from birds are they are basically seeing

1.) more colors due to a higher frequency range in the UHF range.
2.) Magnetic fields, this was found by covering a single eye of a european robin and then subjecting it to magnetic fields.
3.) Humans have one Iras while most birds have two giving them a telefocus ability...

Ohayou
06-14-2012, 09:03 PM
What are the odds of Hamilton skipping AAA entirely?

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 09:44 PM
What are the odds of Hamilton skipping AAA entirely?

Slim and none. The Reds haven't skipped anyone over AAA since Jordan Smith. I don't even recall the last time they skipped a position guy over AAA.

schmidty622
06-15-2012, 09:28 AM
Slim and none. The Reds haven't skipped anyone over AAA since Jordan Smith. I don't even recall the last time they skipped a position guy over AAA.

Mike Leake...

dougdirt
06-15-2012, 12:11 PM
Mike Leake...

Mike Leake is a position player? And Leake skipped over everything. If Hamilton had that kind of game, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Jamz
06-15-2012, 12:13 PM
The more video I see of him at short the more I think that they should really make an effort to move him to CF.

He has the range and hands to be an excellent CF and then Dusty will have the perfect CF leadoff. :)

bellhead
06-15-2012, 04:32 PM
Mike Leake is a position player? And Leake skipped over everything. If Hamilton had that kind of game, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Mike Leake is hitting better than most of our position players:lol:

dougdirt
06-15-2012, 07:18 PM
Mike Leake is hitting better than most of our position players:lol:

He wouldn't be if he played every day, but I still laughed because it is true.

Steve4192
06-19-2012, 10:22 AM
I don not see the need or the wisdom in fast tracking him for AA just because he is putting up good numbers at A+. Let him play the year out at A+ and work on some things to improve his game before he gets to AA and AAA.

Agreed.

I have always been a big believer in letting young players experience success. Let Hamilton refine his game in an environment where he is confident. There is no need to bump him up to AA and potentially have him struggle and lose confidence.

There is no rush to get him to the majors. The Reds already have quality players at his potential positions, and Hamilton has a LOT of work to do in every facet of the game. Even the best of part of his game (baserunning) is still incredibly raw and relies more on his athleticism rather than refined technique.

Personally, I'd leave him at Bakersfield all year, do the same thing next year in AA with a possible September call up if he plays well, and then put him on the AAA-Cincinnati shuttle in 2014 if everything goes well over the next year and a half.

powersackers
06-26-2012, 04:13 PM
His OBP is now up to .427. He's going to score 130+ runs and steal 150+ bases. That's not confidence, that's embarrassing the rest of the Cali league.

It's hard to believe he's not being considered for a 25 man spot right now.

He needs to move to LF/CF now. Likely in AA right after the Futures game. Then, if it goes well, which I bet it will - get him to the bigs by Sept. 1 or sooner if Heisey and Cairo continue to look lost.

powersackers
06-26-2012, 04:15 PM
Billy having the best week of his career:

http://blogredmachine.com/2012/06/25/billy-hamilton-having-the-best-week-of-his-career/

dougdirt
06-26-2012, 04:16 PM
His OBP is now up to .427. He's going to score 130+ runs and steal 150+ bases. That's not confidence, that's embarrassing the rest of the Cali league.

It's hard to believe he's not being considered for a 25 man spot right now.

He needs to move to LF/CF now. Likely in AA right after the Futures game. Then, if it goes well, which I bet it will - get him to the bigs by Sept. 1 or sooner if Heisey and Cairo continue to look lost.

Nothing you do in high A should be considered for the 25 man roster. Absolutely nothing. The difference in talent there is the size of the Atlantic Ocean.

powersackers
06-26-2012, 04:18 PM
Nothing you do in high A should be considered for the 25 man roster. Absolutely nothing. The difference in talent there is the size of the Atlantic Ocean.

Albert Pujols never played a game above A ball. Impact players can do it. Impacting the game in different ways doesn't change much.

Homer Bailey
06-26-2012, 04:20 PM
Albert Pujols never played a game above A ball. Impact players can do it. Impacting the game in different ways doesn't change much.

Very fair comparison!

Steve4192
06-26-2012, 04:24 PM
Albert Pujols never played a game above A ball. Impact players can do it. Impacting the game in different ways doesn't change much.

Comparing prospects to an eventual Hall of Famer is generally not an accurate way to project how things will work out. For every Albert Pujols, there are a 1000 Paul Householders. Doug is right. Success in single A doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

Pujols is the exception, not the rule.

klw
06-26-2012, 04:26 PM
Billy having the best week of his career:

http://blogredmachine.com/2012/06/25/billy-hamilton-having-the-best-week-of-his-career/

But is he in the best shape of his life?

Steve4192
06-26-2012, 04:36 PM
His OBP is now up to .427. He's going to score 130+ runs and steal 150+ bases. That's not confidence, that's embarrassing the rest of the Cali league.

Theo Bowe's OBP is .458 (with a higher BA and SLG to boot) and he already plays the OF. If single-A numbers mean so much, why not call him up instead? Heck, why don't the Padres call up Justin Miller and his .459 OBP or the A's call up Miles Head and his whopping 1149 OPS. Better yet, the Mariners have a guy at High Desert (Julio Morban) with a 1040 OPS even though he is one of the youngest guys in the league.

If Albert Pujols can do it, surely those guys can too!

krm1580
06-26-2012, 05:22 PM
I like Billy Hamilton a lot. I think he provides excitement in a farm system devoid of star power and could develop into a good player.

That said the idea that he should somehow be put on the 25 man roster based on the numbers he is putting up in A ball is laughable.

The players listed below are both 21 year olds playing in A ball. Player B is Billy Hamilton, Player A was the record setting stolen base season by Vince Coleman in 1983.

SB/G SB % Slash
Player A 1.28 82.4 .431/.399/.830
Player B 1.28 83.8 .422/.446/.873


I don't think Vince Coleman is a perfect comp for Billy Hamilton because I think Hamilton has a little bit better power, but I think he does provide a fairly good barometer of the type of number to expect from all speed, no power guys as they move up the chain.

powersackers
06-26-2012, 06:03 PM
None of the players mentioned from Householder to the other farm guys are making headlines nationwide. Stunning former ballplayers like Maury Wills and others. I don't see why you all don't see how rare and special thus is.

dougdirt
06-26-2012, 06:23 PM
None of the players mentioned from Householder to the other farm guys are making headlines nationwide. Stunning former ballplayers like Maury Wills and others. I don't see why you all don't see how rare and special thus is.

What do national headlines have to do with his ability to hit MLB pitching right now? His speed is rare and special. His game? Not so much, at least right now. If he keeps on learning and improving, maybe one day. But that day is a quite a ways from today.

powersackers
06-26-2012, 09:01 PM
What do national headlines have to do with his ability to hit MLB pitching right now?

Ability to hit major league pitching better than Heisey or Cairo is highly likely. National headlines is something none of us have ever seen as it relates to a Reds prospect before. It calls for outside the box thinking. Not linear thinking IMHO.

dougdirt
06-26-2012, 09:32 PM
Ability to hit major league pitching better than Heisey or Cairo is highly likely. National headlines is something none of us have ever seen as it relates to a Reds prospect before. It calls for outside the box thinking. Not linear thinking IMHO.

Billy Hamilton isn't half the prospect that Joey Votto or Jay Bruce were within the last 6 years. Bruce was the best prospect in the game. I don't even have Hamilton as the BEST REDS prospect right now (#2 behind Corcino).

And Hamilton would have absolutely no shot at hitting MLB pitching better than Heisey or Cairo right now. Not a chance. None.

kaldaniels
06-26-2012, 09:50 PM
Whatever side of the fence you fall on, I predict his MLB debut will be in the next 450 days. Too much hype to take the long way...fortunately or unfortunately.

powersackers
06-26-2012, 09:52 PM
Votto and Bruce were never covered on a near daily basis by ESPN and USA today etc. Bloggers gush on Hamilton daily. A lineup of 9 Heiseys or Cairo vs nine Hamilton's vs MLB pitching would lose every time. Hamilton can create runs by himself by hitting a regular ground ball to SS.

RedlegJake
06-26-2012, 10:29 PM
Votto and Bruce were never covered on a near daily basis by ESPN and USA today etc. Bloggers gush on Hamilton daily. A lineup of 9 Heiseys or Cairo vs nine Hamilton's vs MLB pitching would lose every time. Hamilton can create runs by himself by hitting a regular ground ball to SS.

But at this point in time Hamilton couldn't even hit ML pitching well enough to hit it to the SS. And no, he cannot beat out a regular grounder to a ML shortstop.

dougdirt
06-26-2012, 11:37 PM
Votto and Bruce were never covered on a near daily basis by ESPN and USA today etc. Bloggers gush on Hamilton daily. A lineup of 9 Heiseys or Cairo vs nine Hamilton's vs MLB pitching would lose every time. Hamilton can create runs by himself by hitting a regular ground ball to SS.

I could care less if those guys were covered daily or not, they were incredibly better prospects than Hamilton is.

Hamilton can't beat out a regular groundball to a shortstop on anything like a regular basis. Do you know what Hamilton hit on grounders to shortstop last season? I do. Against minor league third baseman in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop. Now, that is absolutely insane (in a good way). But fielders get better, with stronger arms, with more accurate arms, with quicker releases and the fields are even better at every step of the way.

If your argument for why a player is ready is that he can beat out infield hits, it tells you all that you need to know. Hamilton is doing some good things right now (check out that plate discipline and his strikeout rate is now under 16%). He isn't close to being ready to face Major League pitching. The Carolina League All Star pitchers showed that. Despite his MVP, he went 1-5 with 3 strikeouts and a bunt single (outstanding bunt BTW). It is a great, giant leap to the Majors from there.

membengal
06-27-2012, 06:14 AM
Heisey and Cairo were better prospects than Billy Hamilton?

Seriously, Doug?

dougdirt
06-27-2012, 06:56 AM
Heisey and Cairo were better prospects than Billy Hamilton?

Seriously, Doug?

I didn't say that at all. I read the OP's statement that Hamilton would hit better than those guys in the Major Leagues today, to which I said there is absolutely no chance that would happen.

Hamilton as a prospect is on an entirely different level than Heisey or Cairo ever were.

dougdirt
06-27-2012, 06:58 AM
My above post says "Against minor league third baseman in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop."

I obviously meant against minor league shortstops in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop.

Hillsdale87
06-27-2012, 07:59 AM
Heisey and Cairo were better prospects than Billy Hamilton?

Seriously, Doug?

I think Doug was referring to Votto and Bruce

Vottomatic
06-27-2012, 08:15 AM
But is he in the best shape of his life?

I wanna know if Billy Hamilton is the greatest person ever? :laugh:

Seriously. I'm hoping Hamilton is moved to CF eventually, if not soon. I'm not saying he'll make it to the major leagues. But if he does, then he'd make the perfect leadoff hitter. And I don't see Cozart going anywhere.

I wish they'd move Lutz to LF too.

rgslone
06-27-2012, 08:56 AM
I think Hamilton's acendance to MLB and success there will be tied to his own drive to get better and ability to make changes/adjustments (I'm assuming any help and instruction he will need is in place). For example, Votto just refuses to be satisfied, he is always trying to improve/get an edge. I believe that Bruce was considered a much better prospect than Votto; but while Bruce is a good player, he's turned out not to be in Votto's league as a hitter or in his ability to make adjustments. I'm not saying Bruce doesn't have the desire to improve, because I'm sure the ability to make adjustments is a talent in its own right. My point is that I wish we had a good idea about Hamilton's "motor" and ability to make changes/adjustments because I think that would give us a good idea about his chances to make it to and succeed in MLB.

mdccclxix
06-27-2012, 10:08 AM
I think Hamilton's acendance to MLB and success there will be tied to his own drive to get better and ability to make changes/adjustments (I'm assuming any help and instruction he will need is in place). For example, Votto just refuses to be satisfied, he is always trying to improve/get an edge. I believe that Bruce was considered a much better prospect than Votto; but while Bruce is a good player, he's turned out not to be in Votto's league as a hitter or in his ability to make adjustments. I'm not saying Bruce doesn't have the desire to improve, because I'm sure the ability to make adjustments is a talent in its own right. My point is that I wish we had a good idea about Hamilton's "motor" and ability to make changes/adjustments because I think that would give us a good idea about his chances to make it to and succeed in MLB.

To this point I would say you can look at his improvement this year for a start. I was also impressed last year that he said he wanted 100 sb's and he made the push at the end of year to get there. He set a very high goal and got there. Bonus. This year he's stated he wants to DOUBLE all that. Well, not possible, but still high goals and shoot he's a few games from blowing past his 104 sb mark last year and may break the professional record. So, I'd say his motor and work ethic are very strong points for Hamilton.

Steve4192
06-27-2012, 10:24 AM
My point is that I wish we had a good idea about Hamilton's "motor" and ability to make changes/adjustments because I think that would give us a good idea about his chances to make it to and succeed in MLB.

I think we have a pretty good indication of his desire to improve based on how his peripheral hitting numbers have improved throughout his career.



PA/BB PA/K K:BB
----- ---- ----
2009 GCL Reds 16.4 3.8 4.3
2010 Billings 11.3 5.6 2.0
2011 Dayton 11.7 4.6 2.6
2012 Bakersfield 7.3 6.3 1.2


To me, that looks like a kid who has diligently worked to shore up a weak spot in his game. He's gone from being a hacktastic Willy Mays Hayes clone back in to 2009 and turned into a pretty damn disciplined hitter who will do whatever it takes to get on base where he can put his natural gifts to good use.

dougdirt
06-27-2012, 12:10 PM
Hamilton is well known to be a very hard worker.

rgslone
06-28-2012, 08:36 AM
Those are good points by mdccclxix and Steve4192, and given the additional information from Doug regrading Hamilton's reputation as a hard worker, I think he is likely to succeed - maybe big time. Aside from the debate about whether or not he can/should play SS in the majors, the only consistent concern I've really heard expressed is his power. But, for me, with a guy with that much speed I'd much prefer he first develop OBP and contact skills -which appears to be exaclty what he is doing. I think he has the frame to add some strength and time and confidence will allow him to develop gap power.

Jamz
06-28-2012, 10:23 AM
I could care less if those guys were covered daily or not, they were incredibly better prospects than Hamilton is.

Hamilton can't beat out a regular groundball to a shortstop on anything like a regular basis. Do you know what Hamilton hit on grounders to shortstop last season? I do. Against minor league third baseman in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop. Now, that is absolutely insane (in a good way). But fielders get better, with stronger arms, with more accurate arms, with quicker releases and the fields are even better at every step of the way.

I don't know that one could say that Votto was an 'incredibly better prospect' than Hamilton at the time. Votto progressed by a huge margin from the minors because of his work ethic and tireless perfectionism. At the same age Joey Votto was playing in A+ as well, but he was OPSing at .754 in 124 games (.945 in 24 games the year previous) that year (compared to Hamilton OPSing at .858 in 73 games so far.) When you look to the fact that doesn't take into account the best part of Hamilton's game it paints a pretty picture. Votto is not your typical prospect -- he was never expected to be as good as he is now early on.

Bruce on the other hand was supposed to be one of the best prospects to ever come out of the Reds pipeline (and being only 25 he still has plenty of time to grow.) But even his numbers weren't otherworldly when compared to Hamilton, and Hamilton is showing the kind of discipline and hard work necessary to take that jump and continue to take large strides in development.

Basically I think that Hamilton can do what Votto did -- maybe not to the same extent, but he is going to vastly outperform what was expected of him on draft day. He's already shown the commitment, determination, confidence and tools.

dougdirt
06-28-2012, 11:20 AM
Joey Votto was playing his High A in an offensive suppressive league (think Petco) while also being forced to not swing at the first pitch of every count he faced all season. Hamilton is in an offensive boosting league (think Coors) and can swing whenever he wants to.

Joey Votto was a much better hitter as a prospect than Hamilton is. It isn't close at all. He walked a lot more, hit for a ton more power and struck out at an acceptable rate.

And yes, Bruce had otherwordly numbers compared to Hamilton. At this point in his career, Bruce was in the Majors after obliterating AAA at age 20/21.

klw
06-28-2012, 12:46 PM
One thing to keep in mind with Hamilton is that when he was drafted he was described as raw as he had not played baseball year-round. So he is still a work in progress.

Here are draft time threads:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76380&highlight=hamilton+draft
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76398&highlight=hamilton+draft

Vottomatic
06-28-2012, 01:52 PM
Moving to CF only increases Hamilton's value since he's already played alot of SS. If he makes it to the majors, having a guy that versatile is a plus.

powersackers
06-28-2012, 02:37 PM
Jay Bruce .249 / .322 line this year is weak. Hamilton would wipe the floor with those numbers upon call up.

Jay Bruce
06-28-2012, 03:21 PM
Jay Bruce .249 / .322 line this year is weak. Hamilton would wipe the floor with those numbers upon call up.

I'm not sure whether to say you're delusional or just plain ignorant. I suggest a vote.

Patrick Bateman
06-28-2012, 03:26 PM
Make sure to include the combination option.

bubbachunk
06-28-2012, 03:30 PM
I'm not sure whether to say you're delusional or just plain ignorant. I suggest a vote.

I will go with delusional :lol:

powersackers
06-28-2012, 04:11 PM
Hey! I did qualify my statement with "upon call up". Whenever (Sept12 or later) he gets the call, you guys think he'll be less than .249/.322 ?

Well then he isn't a prospect at all....

Puffy
06-28-2012, 05:27 PM
Hey! I did qualify my statement with "upon call up". Whenever (Sept12 or later) he gets the call, you guys think he'll be less than .249/.322 ?

Well then he isn't a prospect at all....

Mike Trout was called up last year and put up the following line: .220/.281/.390

Do you think he is not a prospect at all???????

dougdirt
06-28-2012, 05:36 PM
Hey! I did qualify my statement with "upon call up". Whenever (Sept12 or later) he gets the call, you guys think he'll be less than .249/.322 ?

Well then he isn't a prospect at all....

Why would you leave out his power, a giant part of his game? That would be like me only bringing up the power of Hamilton when trying to talk about him. It would be silly and missing a whole slew of information.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Hamilton couldn't OBP .320. Wouldn't be surprised if he did top it either, but it wouldn't really shock me if he never hit in the Majors either.

I really wonder if you have ever seen the guy play a game before. He is making progress, but the guy still has a messy swing, poor balance and some pitch recognition issues that leave him flailing out on his front foot. Those groundball infield hits are going to dry up, big time in the Majors. Yes, he will still have a lot of them, but nowhere near the amount he is getting right now and it's going to drop that AVG and OBP quite a bit.

PuffyPig
06-28-2012, 06:15 PM
I'm not sure whether to say you're delusional or just plain ignorant. I suggest a vote.


Careful guys, I'm guessing the mods are staging posts like this for entrapment purposes. They know that it will invoke some nasty respones and "Boom!!!", they got you.

No one could really believe this stuff so it has to be a set up.

Don't be surpised if you get a PM from Chris Hansen and away to the sin bin you go.

;););)

bellhead
06-28-2012, 07:10 PM
Why would you leave out his power, a giant part of his game? That would be like me only bringing up the power of Hamilton when trying to talk about him. It would be silly and missing a whole slew of information.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Hamilton couldn't OBP .320. Wouldn't be surprised if he did top it either, but it wouldn't really shock me if he never hit in the Majors either.

I really wonder if you have ever seen the guy play a game before. He is making progress, but the guy still has a messy swing, poor balance and some pitch recognition issues that leave him flailing out on his front foot. Those groundball infield hits are going to dry up, big time in the Majors. Yes, he will still have a lot of them, but nowhere near the amount he is getting right now and it's going to drop that AVG and OBP quite a bit.

Do you think he will improve on these issues?

powersackers
06-28-2012, 07:19 PM
I left out power yes because a single and two bases stolen equals a triple in my mind. I saw Billy play 17 games and a playoff game last year. Traditional baseball prosepecting which Doug is very good at... doesn't always apply when someone has an 80 tool and knows how to use it. Speed changes everything at 80. Speed plays at every level. Pitchers don't want 80 speed on base. They change their mentality. It affects the defense, the coaches, the pitch sequence. Who you try and get out and how. Dee Gordon was quoted this week as saying Hamilton's game plays now at any level. I just happen to agree. I base it on the above. This is not a setup. I don't mind the name calling. I believe Billy will change everything from the minute his name is penciled in. I come here to write what I believe. I read the opposition and digest it. But it hasn't changed my mind because I think your traditional analysis doesn't apply to his rare player.

PuffyPig
06-28-2012, 07:49 PM
I left out power yes because a single and two bases stolen equals a triple in my mind.

Even with the bases loaded?

dougdirt
06-28-2012, 08:09 PM
I left out power yes because a single and two bases stolen equals a triple in my mind.
Well it doesn't work that way. You hit a single with a runner on first base and you can't steal 2 bases. You hit a triple with a runner on first and you just drove in a run. The triple is a whole lot more valuable than the single and two steals.



I saw Billy play 17 games and a playoff game last year. Traditional baseball prosepecting which Doug is very good at... doesn't always apply when someone has an 80 tool and knows how to use it.
Hamilton isn't actually good at using it, at least in terms of stealing bases. The guy is that fast, but if he were actually a good base stealer, he wouldn't be caught once this season. His time from 1st to second base is faster than the time it takes a pitcher to get to home with a pitch and a catchers pop time. He just doesn't always get the right reads. If he did, he would be 120 for 120.



Speed changes everything at 80. Speed plays at every level. Pitchers don't want 80 speed on base. They change their mentality. It affects the defense, the coaches, the pitch sequence. Who you try and get out and how. Dee Gordon was quoted this week as saying Hamilton's game plays now at any level.
Dee Gordon has 80 speed. How's he hitting? Willy Taveras had 80 speed. How did he hit? Theo Bowe has 80 speed, where are the cries for him (and he is outhitting Hamilton right now in Bakersfield, albeit in lesser time)? Michael Bourn has 80 speed, how has he hit before this season?

As for what Dee Gordon said about Hamilton's game.... when has Gordon even had a chance to watch Hamilton play? They have never played in the same league as each other. It isn't like Gordon gets to go watch him.

dougdirt
06-28-2012, 08:14 PM
I would be willing to bet that I have seen Dee Gordon play in person more than Dee Gordon has seen Billy Hamilton play. I have seen Gordon about 20 times in person.

powersackers
06-28-2012, 08:56 PM
Even with the bases loaded?

How many times a season is a typical leadoff hitter up with the bases loaded? I compared the two slash numbers that are remotely possible to compare. In terms if wins added to a team I think the power of one player can be compared to the speed of another when they are equally elite tools.

PuffyPig
06-28-2012, 09:21 PM
How many times a season is a typical leadoff hitter up with the bases loaded? I compared the two slash numbers that are remotely possible to compare. In terms if wins added to a team I think the power of one player can be compared to the speed of another when they are equally elite tools.

Doesn't matter, in no world is a single and 2 stolen bases the same as a triple.

In the odd case they may be equal, but in most circumstances the triple is way better.

And you are assuming that Hamilton's singles are followed by 2 stolen bases. They aren't.

And how about those HR's?

Patrick Bateman
06-28-2012, 09:26 PM
How many times a season is a typical leadoff hitter up with the bases loaded? I compared the two slash numbers that are remotely possible to compare. In terms if wins added to a team I think the power of one player can be compared to the speed of another when they are equally elite tools.

Runner on first, 2 outs.

You don't see the difference between a triple and single?

Really?

REALLY?

And yes, lead off hitters do have people on base sometimes. Your thesis is really, really, really wrong.

PuffyPig
06-28-2012, 09:36 PM
Runner on first, 2 outs.

You don't see the difference between a triple and single?

Really?

REALLY?

And yes, lead off hitters do have people on base sometimes. Your thesis is really, really, really wrong.

Furcal (who I assume has batted lead-off all season) has come up with a single runner on first base 40 times this year, which would come to about 95 over a full season.

That's 95 times when a triple would be just what the doctor ordered. A single, not so much.

dougdirt
06-28-2012, 09:55 PM
How many times a season is a typical leadoff hitter up with the bases loaded?

Michael Bourn came up to the plate last season 234 times with at least one runner on. Joey Votto did so 330 times. So it happens to be quite a bunch that a leadoff guys comes up to the plate with someone on base.

Steve4192
06-28-2012, 10:40 PM
Dee Gordon has 80 speed. How's he hitting?


227 BA, 277 OBP this year
261 BA 298 OBP career

Hmmmm .... wait a minute


Hey! I did qualify my statement with "upon call up". Whenever (Sept12 or later) he gets the call, you guys think he'll be less than .249/.322 ?

Well then he isn't a prospect at all....

Dee Gordon is clearly not a prospect at all

Oh, and for the record, Dee Gordon hit 301/362 as a 21 year old in single-A.

So much for single-A numbers being predictive of MLB results, even for guys with an 80 speed tool.

mdccclxix
06-29-2012, 11:22 AM
One thing to keep in mind with Hamilton is that when he was drafted he was described as raw as he had not played baseball year-round. So he is still a work in progress.

Here are draft time threads:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76380&highlight=hamilton+draft
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76398&highlight=hamilton+draft

I listen to the Up and In podcast at Baseball Prospectus with Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks, a prospect heavy show. They've been doing a lot of work on what goes wrong with prospects, specifically ones with high ceilings but raw tools. The general finding was that the raw players that actually became what people hoped for were the ones that showed instinct and feel for the game very early on. There is little doubt Hamilton fits this mold so far considering his record pace in SB's, his vast improvement at the plate, strong defensive profile, and switch hitting ability. I'm more and more encouraged by Hamilton's progress when I hear things like this.

powersackers
06-29-2012, 12:18 PM
Doesn't matter, in no world is a single and 2 stolen bases the same as a triple.

In the odd case they may be equal, but in most circumstances the triple is way better.

And you are assuming that Hamilton's singles are followed by 2 stolen bases. They aren't.

And how about those HR's?

Its simply that a single is tremendously easier to hit than a HR or Triple.

Patrick Bateman
06-29-2012, 12:31 PM
Its simply that a single is tremendously easier to hit than a HR or Triple.

..... Which is why we give credit to those that can hit for extra bases more regularly.

redsof72
06-29-2012, 01:57 PM
Hamilton's ability to hit at the major league level is still a question that is a long way from being answered but I will go out on a limb and say this: without a doubt, he will eventually be moved to center field. There are many reasons, but bottom line, it will happen.

fearofpopvol1
06-29-2012, 02:42 PM
Hamilton's ability to hit at the major league level is still a question that is a long way from being answered but I will go out on a limb and say this: without a doubt, he will eventually be moved to center field. There are many reasons, but bottom line, it will happen.

Interesting! Any insight you can provide?

Kc61
06-29-2012, 05:43 PM
Just reading the BA q and a concerning today's Prospect Hot Sheet.

BA has a lot of very high praise for Mr. Hamilton.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:02 AM
I think I might be able to answer my own question.


Range is really Hamilton's only plus ability defensively. His footwork gets sloppy and scouts debate whether he has the arm for the left side of the infield, with most wanting to see him end up in centerfield.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15854

If this is true, why the delay? He really should be out in CF now!

Steve4192
06-30-2012, 06:00 AM
I think I might be able to answer my own question.



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15854

If this is true, why the delay? He really should be out in CF now!

Because you don't move guys off SS until you are absolutely positive they can't handle it. The Reds obviously still hold out some hope that his defense will continue to improve. He is clearly athletic enough for the position.

Plus Plus
06-30-2012, 10:30 AM
Because you don't move guys off SS until you are absolutely positive they can't handle it. The Reds obviously still hold out some hope that his defense will continue to improve. He is clearly athletic enough for the position.

Exhibit A: Starlin Castro.

Scrap Irony
06-30-2012, 11:07 AM
From BA:


The worst thing a pitcher could see is Reds SS Billy Hamilton getting a lead off first base. The bad news for California League pitchers is that the Bakersfield shortstop has gotten much better at figuring out how to get to first. Hamilton, 21, was 7-for-29 this week with one extra-base hit, but he drew eight walks compared to four strikeouts, which allowed him to still swipe 12 bases in 15 attempts. Hamilton has walked 22 times compared to 17 strikeouts this month. The Cal League's hitting environments don't hurt, but Hamilton has managed to significantly cut his strikeout rate this year while upping his walk rate, it's a great combination for a leadoff hitter

But yeah, he's a horrible base stealer despite his 80% success rate and that everyone and their mother knows he's on the move.
And he's a horrid hitter despite the California League's atmosphere being condusive to almost every type of hitter except him.
And he's a poor athelte because... well, because he can't hit with power. Which, as we all know, is one of the main components of athleticism as it's defined and judged by 99.99% of the known world.
:lol:

Hamilton is a remarkable player just scratching the surface of his abilities. He learned how to switch hit three years ago. He learned how to bunt remarkably well last season. He's learned patience at the plate. He's struck out in 10% less of his total ABs than when he started and 5% less than last season.

In short, the guy's showing enough improvement to be a great prospect.

lollipopcurve
06-30-2012, 11:18 AM
In short, the guy's showing enough improvement to be a great prospect.

I agree. The rapid improvement as a hitter is telling.

Plus, the asterisk to Hamilton as a prospect is the buzz he brings to the crowd. Reds fans are more passive than most, I would say, but if Hamilton continues to progress and ends up a viable major league leadoff hitter, he's going to energize the ballpark. When that happens, more folks are going to want to be there. He's potentially a difference maker in more ways than one.

lollipopcurve
06-30-2012, 11:18 AM
In short, the guy's showing enough improvement to be a great prospect.

I agree. The rapid improvement as a hitter -- alongside the basestealing explosion -- is telling.

Plus, the asterisk to Hamilton as a prospect is the buzz he brings to the crowd. Reds fans are more passive than most, I would say, but if Hamilton continues to progress and ends up a viable major league leadoff hitter, he's going to energize the ballpark. When that happens, more folks are going to want to be there. He's potentially a difference maker in more ways than one.

bellhead
06-30-2012, 11:30 AM
Hamilton's ability to hit at the major league level is still a question that is a long way from being answered but I will go out on a limb and say this: without a doubt, he will eventually be moved to center field. There are many reasons, but bottom line, it will happen.

Right now the Reds have two young players at both positions that are under control for the next several years.

Drew Stubbs is under control until 2015 and Zach Cozart is under control until 2017 I think....

For Billy to move to the majors one of these two players will need to be moved. For the Reds its a nice situation to have.... They have to decide which one they like more.

The other wildcard is Philips he is 31 right now, Billy's Eta is around 14 to 15 depending on how he advances which means Brandon will be 33 or 34, will he slow down and be looked at for the hot corner?

Benihana
06-30-2012, 12:13 PM
Right now the Reds have two young players at both positions that are under control for the next several years.

Drew Stubbs is under control until 2015 and Zach Cozart is under control until 2017 I think....

For Billy to move to the majors one of these two players will need to be moved. For the Reds its a nice situation to have.... They have to decide which one they like more.

The other wildcard is Philips he is 31 right now, Billy's Eta is around 14 to 15 depending on how he advances which means Brandon will be 33 or 34, will he slow down and be looked at for the hot corner?

As others have said, I think Hamilton is destined for CF. I think his likely ETA is 2014. I think it is likely Stubbs is traded by that point, as he will start getting more and more expensive once he's arbitration eligible. Barring major trades or FA signings, the 2014 lineup will look like this IMO:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF ??? (could be Lutz, Waldrop, Gelalich, or even Frazier)
RF Bruce
3B Frazier (could be H-Rod, Vidal or Youkilis?)
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

bellhead
06-30-2012, 12:37 PM
As others have said, I think Hamilton is destined for CF. I think his likely ETA is 2014. I think it is likely Stubbs is traded by that point, as he will start getting more and more expensive once he's arbitration eligible. Barring major trades or FA signings, the 2014 lineup will look like this IMO:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF ??? (could be Lutz, Waldrop, Gelalich, or even Frazier)
RF Bruce
3B Frazier (could be H-Rod, Vidal or Youkilis?)
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

Right now in trade talks I think we should offer Stubbs, one reliever not named Chapman or Marshall, two or three prospects for Josh Reddick...

I think Heisy can fill in at CF at the same level as Stubbs.

Benihana
06-30-2012, 01:36 PM
Right now in trade talks I think we should offer Stubbs, one reliever not named Chapman or Marshall, two or three prospects for Josh Reddick...

I think Heisy can fill in at CF at the same level as Stubbs.

I'd like that.

I'd imagine they'd want one or two of the Pensacola pitchers.

We could also ask for Balfour while we're at it.

bellhead
06-30-2012, 02:02 PM
I'd like that.

I'd imagine they'd want one or two of the Pensacola pitchers.

We could also ask for Balfour while we're at it.

One of the three plus one other prospect not named Billy...Lutz, Dee Dee,

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:44 PM
Because you don't move guys off SS until you are absolutely positive they can't handle it. The Reds obviously still hold out some hope that his defense will continue to improve. He is clearly athletic enough for the position.

redsof72 said he likely won't last, Goldstein said he likely won't last, many scouts have said it too. It seems like the experts know more about it than you or I. The longer you wait to move him to CF, which sounds like his future, the longer it's going to take him to adjust to the new position. CF is quite a bit different than SS.

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 03:46 PM
Exhibit A: Starlin Castro.

Castro has been a below average defender in his young career so far. He's looked a bit better this year, but the jury is still out as to whether or not he can be an average or better defender.

Scrap Irony
06-30-2012, 05:14 PM
The young players already in Cincinnati-- Bruce, Leake, Bailey, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Hoover-- will all still be on the right side of 30 by 2015. Add Votto, who, as a 1B, doesn't need to be all that spry, and you can see why the future is relatively bright.

That's two true superstars (Cueto-- questionably and Votto), three more All-Star level producers (Latos, Bruce, Chapman), and a host of guys who look solidly above league average in their respective spots on the roster.

They need a couple of the above average players to blossom into All Stars (which can happen), one of the All Stars to blossom into a superstar (which is possible), or multiple guys from the minors develop into above average players in positions of need.

With Corcino, Cingrani, Hamilton, Lutz, Lotzkar, Vidal, and H. Rodriguez, they've got a good shot at just that.

If just one of the minor leaguers develops into a superstar, the Reds will have a bit of a early 90s Cleveland run in them. Hamilton, IMO, has the highest ceiling of that group and is most likely to become that superstar.

Fwiw, my 2015 lineup:
Hamilton CF
H. Rodriguez 3B
Votto 1B
Frazier LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Mesoraco C
Cozart SS

The real question is what happens with the pitching staff? I think we all know Arroyo is not long for Cincinnati. But what could the Reds get for Leake, shoudld they want to try Corcino in his spot? What could they get for Bailey if they decide that Chapman needs to be a starter? How about Latos? Whither Cingrani?

There's a lot of moving parts-- good parts, mind you, in the Red pipeline. It'll be interesting to see how Jocketty and company move them around in order to create a team.

Steve4192
06-30-2012, 06:34 PM
redsof72 said he likely won't last, Goldstein said he likely won't last, many scouts have said it too. It seems like the experts know more about it than you or I. The longer you wait to move him to CF, which sounds like his future, the longer it's going to take him to adjust to the new position. CF is quite a bit different than SS.

What do all those people have in common (myself included)?

None of them work for the Reds.

It doesn't matter what message board posters think, it doesn't matter what Goldstein thinks, and it doesn't matter what some anonymous scouts think. As long as the guys who are running the Reds player development system feel like Hamilton has a chance to stick at SS, they aren't going to move him. Their opinions are the only ones that matter.

j_m_t_us
06-30-2012, 06:51 PM
What do all those people have in common (myself included)?

None of them work for the Reds.

It doesn't matter what message board posters think, it doesn't matter what Goldstein thinks, and it doesn't matter what some anonymous scouts think. As long as the guys who are running the Reds player development system feel like Hamilton has a chance to stick at SS, they aren't going to move him. Their opinions are the only ones that matter.

You are absolutely right! The bloggers like Goldstein and some of the people that post here seem to think they know more then the people on the inside! Time to move on from the Hamilton to CF obsession!

fearofpopvol1
06-30-2012, 06:53 PM
What do all those people have in common (myself included)?

None of them work for the Reds.

It doesn't matter what message board posters think, it doesn't matter what Goldstein thinks, and it doesn't matter what some anonymous scouts think. As long as the guys who are running the Reds player development system feel like Hamilton has a chance to stick at SS, they aren't going to move him. Their opinions are the only ones that matter.

How do you know for a fact that the scouts quoted don't work for the Reds? Or that Redsof72, who has a lot more inside knowledge than you or I do, doesn't know what he's heard? The guy knows prominent people inside of the Reds organization. Maybe you missed that memo.

At the same token, I'm going to trust Goldstein and these other people over your opinions, no offense. These guys have some established credibility.

Steve4192
06-30-2012, 07:53 PM
How do you know for a fact that the scouts quoted don't work for the Reds? Or that Redsof72, who has a lot more inside knowledge than you or I do, doesn't know what he's heard? The guy knows prominent people inside of the Reds organization. Maybe you missed that memo.

At the same token, I'm going to trust Goldstein and these other people over your opinions, no offense. These guys have some established credibility.

Fair enough.

I'm going to trust Ken Griffey's lineup cards. If the Reds had given up on Hamilton as SS, he wouldn't be playing SS every day. They clearly want to give him a little more time at the position before giving up on his glove.

mth123
06-30-2012, 08:34 PM
I don't see a need to rush Hamilton into CF. Catching Fly Balls is about the easiest thing a guy can do on a Baseball Diamond provided he has enough mobility to run them down (no issue here). He could be converted in AAA when he's putting the finishing touches on his offensive game. Until then, they may as well keep the door open in the IF. It maintains his value, gives him a longer time to get it to click and allows other teams to evaluate him as a SS should any be willing to pony up for Hamilton as their SS of the future.

Hamilton isn't Alonso, Dunn or Dorn that has to get the absolute best jump on everything just to have a shot at catching up to it. I'd imagine he could outrun enough of his mistakes to be competent out there with very little preparation time. He'd get better from there. I think he probably ends up in CF, but there is plenty of time for that.

powersackers
06-30-2012, 09:09 PM
As others have said, I think Hamilton is destined for CF. I think his likely ETA is 2014. I think it is likely Stubbs is traded by that point, as he will start getting more and more expensive once he's arbitration eligible. Barring major trades or FA signings, the 2014 lineup will look like this IMO:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF ??? (could be Lutz, Waldrop, Gelalich, or even Frazier)
RF Bruce
3B Frazier (could be H-Rod, Vidal or Youkilis?)
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

I'll be laughed off the board again. But your 2015 lineup should be the 2012 second half lineup. I have zero doubt it would produce today more than what we have now. Hanigan obviously still plays his 60%.

powersackers
06-30-2012, 09:10 PM
The young players already in Cincinnati-- Bruce, Leake, Bailey, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Hoover-- will all still be on the right side of 30 by 2015. Add Votto, who, as a 1B, doesn't need to be all that spry, and you can see why the future is relatively bright.

That's two true superstars (Cueto-- questionably and Votto), three more All-Star level producers (Latos, Bruce, Chapman), and a host of guys who look solidly above league average in their respective spots on the roster.

They need a couple of the above average players to blossom into All Stars (which can happen), one of the All Stars to blossom into a superstar (which is possible), or multiple guys from the minors develop into above average players in positions of need.

With Corcino, Cingrani, Hamilton, Lutz, Lotzkar, Vidal, and H. Rodriguez, they've got a good shot at just that.

If just one of the minor leaguers develops into a superstar, the Reds will have a bit of a early 90s Cleveland run in them. Hamilton, IMO, has the highest ceiling of that group and is most likely to become that superstar.

Fwiw, my 2015 lineup:
Hamilton CF
H. Rodriguez 3B
Votto 1B
Frazier LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Mesoraco C
Cozart SS

The real question is what happens with the pitching staff? I think we all know Arroyo is not long for Cincinnati. But what could the Reds get for Leake, shoudld they want to try Corcino in his spot? What could they get for Bailey if they decide that Chapman needs to be a starter? How about Latos? Whither Cingrani?

There's a lot of moving parts-- good parts, mind you, in the Red pipeline. It'll be interesting to see how Jocketty and company move them around in order to create a team.

Actually I like this one even better for 2012 second half.

bellhead
07-01-2012, 04:47 PM
Here's an article I posted in the ORG on players under control for the NL central. The Reds are in the best shape imo.

http://disciplesofuecker.com/building-and-rebuilding-nl-central-contract-cores/3422

corkedbat
07-09-2012, 11:19 PM
I think where Billy ends up will determine mostly by how he fares defensively as well as what moves the Redsdo in deals between now and 2013.

Billy's value is certainly greater if he sticks at SS, but by the same token SS is one place where I don't want to compromise on defense. I would be perfectly fine with Cozart and Gregorious sharing the SS position over the next few years and moving Billy to CF.

Normally, I might like to have a bit more power from my CFer, but if Billy can maintain his improved walk rate, but and just beat the ball into the ground enough, he'll get on base quite a bit. Also, while he's probably never gonna hit 20 dingers (or maybe even 10 for that matter), I can see him developing more gap power as he matures. One thing to remember about Hamilton, every walk, every bunt single, every HBP or reached on an error is potentially just a pitch or two from being a double or triple with his speed and ability to swipe bases.

Defensively? He certainly hs the speed to cover a lot of ground out in center, but he doesn't have any experince. If they are going to make a move, it needs to be done this offseason at the very latest. You'd prefer a better arm out there, but his arm isn't terrible.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2012, 11:55 PM
That's a good point, corked. I like Cozart's power from the SS position. It plays especially well in the GABP, which can mask some of his obp problems. (Gregorius, IMO, is a poor man's Billy Hamilton, with-- if you can believe it-- less game power. He does have a better glove, but, at this point, he's more Paul Janish than true big league starter.)

It depends on what the Reds' brass do between now and then.

If they're okay with some combination of Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey the rest of this year AND Stubbs is retained in the summer, I'd be in favor of switching Hamilton next year, either in AA (likely) or AAA. If they're looking for other options in center, Hamilton could end up a SS, with both Gregorius and Cozart as trade chips as early as the winter of 2013.

corkedbat
07-10-2012, 01:22 AM
That's a good point, corked. I like Cozart's power from the SS position. It plays especially well in the GABP, which can mask some of his obp problems. (Gregorius, IMO, is a poor man's Billy Hamilton, with-- if you can believe it-- less game power. He does have a better glove, but, at this point, he's more Paul Janish than true big league starter.)

It depends on what the Reds' brass do between now and then.

If they're okay with some combination of Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey the rest of this year AND Stubbs is retained in the summer, I'd be in favor of switching Hamilton next year, either in AA (likely) or AAA. If they're looking for other options in center, Hamilton could end up a SS, with both Gregorius and Cozart as trade chips as early as the winter of 2013.

Yeah Scrappy, Cozart would defintely be the starter if we kept both he and Didi, but unless someone makes a really good offer for Gregorious, I'd keep him around. True, he's got next to no power, but he has shown some ability to get on base in the minors. He won't win any silver slugger awards, but how many reseve SSs do. I think he has at least the offensive potential of a Janish or Valdez and probably is as good (or better D wise). His speed, the fact that he's a MI who hits from the left side and he'll be cheap for several years may make him worth having around as a bench player.

Scrap Irony
07-10-2012, 01:37 AM
I think he'd be attractive to other teams. Attractive enough, IMO, that Cincinnati shouldn't hesitate to deal him. Now, yeah, it no offers, he's a fine two-day-a-week semi-platoon guy at SS with Cozart.

Nice piece to have when he's cheap.

rgslone
07-10-2012, 09:08 AM
It was my understanding that Gregorious is considered a really good SS prospect, and actually thought of as a better "prospect" than Cozart was. Obviously, that doesn't mean he will be a better MLB player. If, however, he continues to develop his hitting (e.g., OBP and contact rates, I'm not too concerned with his power) to the point of deserving major league starts, then I think the Reds have a decision.

I'm not aware of any good SS platoons - it just doesn't seem like a position where that has been effective. On the other hand, if he doesn't develop to the point of being a decent bat, then I can see keeping him as a back-up because he won't have much trade value anyway.

Basically, I think it is a waste to have two young good defensive/decent bat SS on the roster splitting time when I think the trade value for that type of player is pretty good. I think that we Reds' fans can attest from the recent past that finding a good defensive/decent bat SS is not that easy. So, if one is available and also happens to be cheap, I think a number of teams will always be very interested.

REDREAD
07-10-2012, 02:47 PM
I He'd get better from there. I think he probably ends up in CF, but there is plenty of time for that.

I honestly think that Billy would only need maybe a month or so of games in CF in order to man it competently.

I agree. No reason to rush Billy off SS. The guy has learned a lot of stuff very fast in the minors. From what I have read, his defense at SS has improved.