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Dan
06-04-2012, 01:02 PM
...the Pirates moved into 2nd place last night, ahead of the Cardinals.


Cent W L GB SRS
CIN F 30 23 -- 0.1
PIT F 27 26 3.0 -0.7
STL F 27 27 3.5 0.3
MIL F 24 30 6.5 -0.9
HOU F 23 31 7.5 -0.5
CHC F 18 35 12.0 -1.2

cumberlandreds
06-04-2012, 01:16 PM
That's a nice thing to see. Lets hope the Reds are in first place come October 4th.

Ghosts of 1990
06-04-2012, 01:26 PM
Oh I noticed. My only thought: we have a chance to go from this being a 2-team race to running away with it.

klw
06-04-2012, 01:27 PM
What is SRS? Is a strenth of schedule index of some kind?

RedFanAlways1966
06-04-2012, 02:26 PM
Amazing... considering they have trouble scoring runs. WAIT!!! Can it be that good pitching (2nd lowest team ERA in MLB) will cause you to win some games? Nah... b/c they have the 2nd lowest OPS in all of MLB. WAIT!!! It seems that the 2nd lowest ERA has caused something to happen despite no hitting/scoring. It cannot be when many here are willing to trade the most dominating pitcher in MLB for a darn bat. Should we even throw in the lowest team ERA in the MLB is a once lowly team named the Nationals (7th lowest OPS in MLB). I am so confused. I know you have to score to win, but can you lose if you are not scored upon?

Silly REDS fans. Pitching, pitching, pitching... :lol:

757690
06-04-2012, 02:28 PM
I've said since spring training, it's going to be a two team race in the NL Central... Reds and Pirates. :)

Brutus
06-04-2012, 02:31 PM
I noticed but I will be shocked if the Pirates are in this position come September.

Vottomatic
06-04-2012, 02:46 PM
I've said since spring training, it's going to be a two team race in the NL Central... Reds and Pirates. :)

Me too. I've said it was going to be a 2-team race in the NL Central since spring training.......Reds and somebody else. :laugh::D :eek:

MikeThierry
06-04-2012, 03:02 PM
If the Cardinals bullpen continues to wet the bed like they are, its going to be a run away division for you guys.

Plus Plus
06-04-2012, 03:03 PM
According to Baseball-Reference, SRS stands for "Simple Rating System," which is defined as the number of runs per game that the team is on average better or worse than the average team. It is also described as being calculated by combining run differential and strength of schedule.

Further explanation: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=37

tl;dr: SRS is a predictive statistic, calculates points or runs rather than wins or losses, is biased towards offensive-focused teams, and, for some reason, was explained using football rather than baseball in the link that B-R sent me to.

Tom Servo
06-04-2012, 03:42 PM
Still far more concerned about the Cardinals than the Pirates. Hell I'm more concerned about the Brewers than the Pirates.

RedlegJake
06-04-2012, 03:44 PM
Still far more concerned about the Cardinals than the Pirates. Hell I'm more concerned about the Brewers than the Pirates.

Me too. I don't think that pitching holds up all season long. It'll be a good staff but not the numbers they have now.

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2012, 05:08 PM
Still far more concerned about the Cardinals than the Pirates. Hell I'm more concerned about the Brewers than the Pirates.

Personally, I'm not "concerned" with any of them. I've felt we'd run away with this thing since the beginning. I also felt that the Pirates would finish ahead of the Cards (I had the Brewers in second but who knew this rash of DL's would hit them). I still think it'll hold up, but they'll be considerably back. (above .500 though...finally, this will be the year they break the string)

The Pirates also have 2 of the best SP prospects in the minors too. Their farm isn't exactly bare.

MikeThierry
06-04-2012, 05:22 PM
Personally, I'm not "concerned" with any of them. I've felt we'd run away with this thing since the beginning. I also felt that the Pirates would finish ahead of the Cards (I had the Brewers in second but who knew this rash of DL's would hit them). I still think it'll hold up, but they'll be considerably back. (above .500 though...finally, this will be the year they break the string)

The Pirates also have 2 of the best SP prospects in the minors too. Their farm isn't exactly bare.

The Cardinals seem to play the best when their backs are against the wall. I sort of want people counting them out.

Tony Cloninger
06-04-2012, 05:33 PM
Personally, I'm not "concerned" with any of them. I've felt we'd run away with this thing since the beginning. I also felt that the Pirates would finish ahead of the Cards (I had the Brewers in second but who knew this rash of DL's would hit them). I still think it'll hold up, but they'll be considerably back. (above .500 though...finally, this will be the year they break the string)

The Pirates also have 2 of the best SP prospects in the minors too. Their farm isn't exactly bare.

Last year I would have agreed with you.....coming off 2010 and the hot start.....but now.....why are you so confident, especially with the real lack of depth to help in the minors or possibly for trades?

The Operator
06-04-2012, 06:00 PM
I said this in the other thread, but I'll say roughly the same thing again.

They are still scoring less runs than they are allowing, -26 to be exact. Unless they start performing better offensively or add a piece to their offense, this is not going to hold up for them. These things happen almost every season, there will be a team or two who manage to win some close ballgames and defy their Pythag record despite being in the red on run differential. But those teams almost never maintain it over the course of a full season, the law of averages have way too much time to take their toll in a 162-game season.

How many times did we see The Reds make it to May or June with a .500 or better record during the Lost Decade, only to have them fall on their face? You HAVE to score more than you allow, whether it's via good pitching, good hitting, vodoo or some other form of trickery. But that's how you make it through a whole season.

The Operator
06-04-2012, 06:03 PM
Amazing... considering they have trouble scoring runs. WAIT!!! Can it be that good pitching (2nd lowest team ERA in MLB) will cause you to win some games? Nah... b/c they have the 2nd lowest OPS in all of MLB. WAIT!!! It seems that the 2nd lowest ERA has caused something to happen despite no hitting/scoring. It cannot be when many here are willing to trade the most dominating pitcher in MLB for a darn bat. Should we even throw in the lowest team ERA in the MLB is a once lowly team named the Nationals (7th lowest OPS in MLB). I am so confused. I know you have to score to win, but can you lose if you are not scored upon?

Silly REDS fans. Pitching, pitching, pitching... :lol:I couldn't care less how it happens, as long as The Reds are scoring more than they are allowing. Seriously, what difference does it make? Obviously I'd prefer to have a solid staff come playoff time, but you've gotta make the playoffs to start with.

And to comment on your Pirates/Nationals comparison; Yes, the Nationals are winning with a bad offense. Because their pitching is SO GOOD that they are still scoring +26 more runs than they are allowing. They're likely to be around all season. The Pirates, at -26, are likely to fall by the wayside.

It's all about run differential. Pythagoras is a cruel dude and very rarely can any team defy him for a full season.

OldXOhio
06-04-2012, 06:04 PM
It's 2011 all over again

Tony Cloninger
06-04-2012, 06:22 PM
It's 2011 all over again

Except maybe this time the Reds are the Brewers? Or the Cardinals?

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2012, 06:49 PM
Last year I would have agreed with you.....coming off 2010 and the hot start.....but now.....why are you so confident, especially with the real lack of depth to help in the minors or possibly for trades?

Because I still don't feel that our hitters have hit their stride yet. Same for some of the pitchers. It's been a real rarity to have a game where we both hit AND pitch well this year. It's been one or the other. But regardless, I just see a VERY weak division ripe for the taking.

MikeThierry
06-04-2012, 07:01 PM
It's 2011 all over again

God I hope so :D

westofyou
06-04-2012, 07:05 PM
Pirates will experience a pumpkin moment any day, they have scored 26 less runs than they have allowed and the offense they have will be hard pressed to get them even, much alone in the black

_Sir_Charles_
06-04-2012, 07:17 PM
Pirates will experience a pumpkin moment any day, they have scored 26 less runs than they have allowed and the offense they have will be hard pressed to get them even, much alone in the black

And see, I look at it the other way around.

Right now, they've got...
Walker who's hitting about 100 points below his career OPS
Presley, 150 below his career OPS and 50 below his normal BA
Tabata, 100 below career OPS, 50 below BA
Barmes, 200 below career OPS and 70 below career BA

And of course Alvarez. He's down 100 ops from his rookie season and 60 points off his rookie BA. I thought he was making the adjustment earlier this season, but he's hit a VERY rough patch lately. I just think he's too talented to be stuck where he is.

Regardless, I see only 2 player who are basically hitting at where they normally are (or better). Jones & McCutchen. If they get a couple of those guys hitting like they normally do, I think their run differential will head towards the positive.

Or maybe I'm delusional. :p

The Operator
06-04-2012, 08:20 PM
And see, I look at it the other way around.

Right now, they've got...
Walker who's hitting about 100 points below his career OPS
Presley, 150 below his career OPS and 50 below his normal BA
Tabata, 100 below career OPS, 50 below BA
Barmes, 200 below career OPS and 70 below career BA

And of course Alvarez. He's down 100 ops from his rookie season and 60 points off his rookie BA. I thought he was making the adjustment earlier this season, but he's hit a VERY rough patch lately. I just think he's too talented to be stuck where he is.Any player can swing 100 or so OPS points from year to year, it happens a lot. So they should expect some offensive boost, but when their pitching is performing at its absolute peak and they're still -26, that would cause me concern if I were a Pirate fan.

And especially for a guy like Alvarez, 2nd-year players have down years compared to their rookie season all the time. The old "sophomore slump" or whatever it's called.

So while I mildly agree with your point, I still don't think they've got enough offensive punch to even maintain .500 with their current squad. And that's assuming their pitching keeps humming along like this all year long. I'd be interested to know how some of their staff is performing in ERA compared to FIP and/or xFIP. That would also help in predicting what the future holds in Pittsburgh.

Tony Cloninger
06-04-2012, 09:37 PM
Because I still don't feel that our hitters have hit their stride yet. Same for some of the pitchers. It's been a real rarity to have a game where we both hit AND pitch well this year. It's been one or the other. But regardless, I just see a VERY weak division ripe for the taking.

The...both hitting and pitching at same time...is something we said a lot of last year along with the Pythag thing....which I probably annoyed a few with my "We are leading the Pythag race" type of stuff.

The Cards were doing that as well this year....so hopefully that continues this year while they start losing more and more due to pitching regressing badly, especially the bullpen.

WVPacman
06-04-2012, 11:44 PM
The Cardinals seem to play the best when their backs are against the wall. I sort of want people counting them out.

Mike, thats never going to happen bud b/c all the sports channels and baseball experts never count out the cards.They almost always pick them to win the central.They did this year also but I know what you are saying.It seems like every team that people count out almost always has a great season.

vic715
06-05-2012, 12:12 AM
The Cardinals seem to play the best when their backs are against the wall. I sort of want people counting them out.

I've been watching MLB for over 50 years and I for one know the Cards aren't dead yet.Remember how many people on this board were throwing in the towel after the 4-8 start at the beginning of the season.If the Reds Pen suddenly goes into a slump or Votto Gets hurt and is out for a long period this thing will stay close all year.

WVPacman
06-05-2012, 12:19 AM
Its really shocking to me b/c the reds are in 1st place.Their offense has'nt showed up at all yet and if and when it does and they still keep playing like this then the central better watch out.For the life of me I can not understand why this team isn't hitting like they are capable of doing.Its hard to say what their record would be right now if they was hitting like they should.

RedsManRick
06-05-2012, 07:26 AM
Its really shocking to me b/c the reds are in 1st place.Their offense has'nt showed up at all yet and if and when it does and they still keep playing like this then the central better watch out.For the life of me I can not understand why this team isn't hitting like they are capable of doing.Its hard to say what their record would be right now if they was hitting like they should.

Agreed. It doesn't feel like we've been playing particularly well. I'm very happy that we have a healthy lead.