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Benihana
06-05-2012, 12:06 AM
A HS corner OF with a stick. I like it. Please use this thread for scouting reports, links and comments on the Reds sandwich (#49) selection.

Superdude
06-05-2012, 12:46 AM
I don't know enough about who was available to objectively say this was a great pick, but I'm loving the scouting reports on Winker. Looks like he'll have plenty of power to tap into as he develops, and it just warms my heart to hear people raving about his plate approach.

RedlegJake
06-05-2012, 12:54 AM
http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=183114

RedlegJake
06-05-2012, 12:56 AM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/draft-video-jesse-winker/

LoganBuck
06-05-2012, 01:18 AM
His swing reminds me of David Justice. Me like.

camisadelgolf
06-05-2012, 01:18 AM
His brother, Joey: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=winker000jos

fearofpopvol1
06-05-2012, 01:23 AM
I really like his swing. He looks like a ballplayer to me. An unexpected but good pick!

RedlegJake
06-05-2012, 01:23 AM
I'm actually liking all three of the Reds picks the more I read and find out about them.

mdccclxix
06-05-2012, 09:00 AM
He's either got short legs or a long torso/neck, not sure how you want to look at it, but the only player I can recognize like that is Mauer.

redsmetz
06-05-2012, 10:29 AM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/draft-video-jesse-winker/

Watched the video with this one. Sounds like he's not using a metal bat; which I think is good. Anyone else who is versed in these things concur with that?

BuckeyeRedleg
06-05-2012, 11:05 AM
He's either got short legs or a long torso/neck, not sure how you want to look at it, but the only player I can recognize like that is Mauer.

Tino Martinez.

PuffyPig
06-05-2012, 11:18 AM
His brother, Joey: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=winker000jos

I thought his brother was Fonzie, aka "The Fonz".....

camisadelgolf
06-05-2012, 12:11 PM
Smashmouth "The Fonz" - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ztWQ2ROxxg)
Weezer - Buddy Holly - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kemivUKb4f4)

Mario-Rijo
06-05-2012, 03:33 PM
He showed up for the 2011 Perfect Game National Showcase as a different type of player, running a 7.1 60 and showing fundamentally polished and athletic actions in the outfield on defense. The player who looked like a future left field/first base candidate now looked like an accomplished defensive right fielder with an impressive throwing arm.

Guess that means he should man LF pretty well.


But it will eventually be Winkerís power and consistency at the plate that will determine how high he is drafted. Nowhere was that hitting ability more apparent than at the 2011 WWBA World Championships in Jupiter, Florida, where FTB Mizuno put together an all All-American outfield of Winker, David Dahl and Albert Almora. Winkerís bat stood out even among his FTB Mizuno teammates, and he hit two home runs and led all players at the tournament in RBI.

Good stuff.

PG Crosschecker (http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=183114)

Benihana
06-05-2012, 04:56 PM
After Rahier, Winker is my second favorite pick in this draft.

And I don't mind the Travieso pick.

nate1213
06-08-2012, 06:22 PM
Reds sign Winker to a 1.025 Million dollar contract, reporting John Fay.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 06:23 PM
Reds sign Winker to a 1.025 Million dollar contract, reporting John Fay.

Winker is a LH, high BA, high OBP hitter.

Bring him up. We can use him against Verlander tomorrow.

camisadelgolf
06-08-2012, 10:08 PM
Winker is a LH, high BA, high OBP hitter.

Bring him up. We can use him against Verlander tomorrow.
I just heard on the radio that he's being converted to a pitcher.

JaxRed
06-08-2012, 11:42 PM
I just heard on the radio that he's being converted to a pitcher.

Should there be a smiley on this?

dougdirt
06-09-2012, 12:01 AM
Should there be a smiley on this?

yes. There should be.

camisadelgolf
06-09-2012, 09:54 PM
Should there be a smiley on this?
Oh, I'm sorry. I thought we were talking about things we thought would never happen.

TOBTTReds
06-10-2012, 12:11 PM
Oh, I'm sorry. I thought we were talking about things we thought would never happen.

Haha. He is a pitcher though too. But I guess which top HS picks aren't also pitchers for their HS teams? Was Bruce a pitcher in HS? I imagine he could throw in upper 80's from the left side.

camisadelgolf
06-10-2012, 01:21 PM
Haha. He is a pitcher though too. But I guess which top HS picks aren't also pitchers for their HS teams? Was Bruce a pitcher in HS? I imagine he could throw in upper 80's from the left side.
Some scouts believed he could make it as a left-handed pitcher, but the consensus was that he's destined to be a hitter.

Blitz Dorsey
06-28-2012, 02:19 AM
After 32 ABs with the Mustangs, Winker is raking to the tune of .375 (.957 OPS):

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=RF&sid=t513&t=p_pbp&pid=608385

Looking like a great pick.

Kc61
06-29-2012, 07:12 PM
After 32 ABs with the Mustangs, Winker is raking to the tune of .375 (.957 OPS):

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=RF&sid=t513&t=p_pbp&pid=608385

Looking like a great pick.

Think he can be accelerated so he plays LF for the Reds by, say, the fourth of July?

corkedbat
06-29-2012, 07:48 PM
Think he can be accelerated so he plays LF for the Reds by, say, the fourth of July?

I'd like to see Winker (RF), Rahier (3B), Rosa (LF) and Washingon (2B) move through the system together.

lollipopcurve
06-29-2012, 07:50 PM
I'd like to see Winker (RF), Rahier (3B), Rosa (LF) and Washingon (2B) move through the system together.

I'd like to see Rosa play better. Hasn't shown much so far.

corkedbat
06-29-2012, 08:05 PM
I'd like to see Rosa play better. Hasn't shown much so far.

I don't worry about HS guys (or younger) stuggling too much the first couple of years. The raw tools are there though. Next year is a big year for them though. I do think that makes HS giys who have early success all the more impressive.

MikeS21
07-03-2012, 10:07 AM
I know it is WAY early, but I like this Winker kid. He knows how to swing a bat, and his walks show that he knows how NOT to swing the bat!

Check out these numbers: Batting average is .413, OBP is .533, and SLG is .500. In 13 games, he has 12 walks and 13 K's.

How is his defense in the OF looking?

TOBTTReds
07-03-2012, 04:26 PM
I just watched #2 overall pick Byron Buxton play today in a GCL game. He's lost. He's 1-27. Saw him K 3 times. Amazing seeing what a HS draft pick is doing in Billings compared to another in GCL, especially as the #2 overall.

Superdude
07-03-2012, 05:26 PM
I just watched #2 overall pick Byron Buxton play today in a GCL game. He's lost. He's 1-27. Saw him K 3 times. Amazing seeing what a HS draft pick is doing in Billings compared to another in GCL, especially as the #2 overall.

Him and Raiher are both starting off great. Obviously these guys are no where near polished at this stage, but if one persisting problem shows up early, it has to be pitch recognition and contact ability. Love seeing both of them displaying some patience and hitting ability early on.

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 06:40 PM
I just watched #2 overall pick Byron Buxton play today in a GCL game. He's lost. He's 1-27. Saw him K 3 times. Amazing seeing what a HS draft pick is doing in Billings compared to another in GCL, especially as the #2 overall.

Way to be a jinx! He was 1-24 with 3 walks and 3 strikeouts before you showed up. In one day you doubled his strikeouts.

mace
07-04-2012, 12:06 PM
Winker's career OBP is now .554.

texasdave
07-04-2012, 12:09 PM
Winker's career OBP is now .554.

He needs to renegotiate his signing bonus. :)

TOBTTReds
07-04-2012, 02:50 PM
Way to be a jinx! He was 1-24 with 3 walks and 3 strikeouts before you showed up. In one day you doubled his strikeouts.

Didn't know it was just 3 k, would have guessed 12+ from what I saw.

Edd Roush
05-10-2013, 02:30 PM
Jesse Winker is off to a solid start of the Dayton Dragons this year. He is currently hitting .291/.397/.466 which translates to a .401 wOBA in his first 121 PAs. He still has a very strong 14% BB rate, and has cut his K rate from 18.2% last year to 16.5% this year. He has maintained a solid ISO of .170 this year compared to .162 last year.

At first glance, some posters may be discouraged that Jesse Winker is not hitting .338/.443/.500 as he did last year in 275 PAs. What one must taken into consideration when viewing those stats is that Winker had an unsustainable .414 BABIP last year. This year his great line is based upon a more reasonable .338 BABIP.

Jesse Winker is producing very well for a 19-year old in the Midwest League. Let's hope he can keep it up through the rest of this year and if he can, perhaps he can be a candidate to skip Bakersfield and try Pensacola in 2014.

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 02:55 PM
Slow start for Winker has been wiped away. In his last 17 games: .397/.493/.638 with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts.

And some video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waNiAn-6aE4

Vottomatic
05-10-2013, 02:57 PM
Yeah. We need some legit hitters coming through our system.

Screw all this pitching. ;)

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 02:58 PM
Yeah. We need some legit hitters coming through our system.

Screw all this pitching. ;)

I was with you.... until that last line :laugh:

TOBTTReds
05-10-2013, 03:03 PM
Slow start for Winker has been wiped away. In his last 17 games: .397/.493/.638 with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts.

And some video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waNiAn-6aE4

And looking back at this thread, Buxton's slow start last season has not only been wiped away, but completely forgotten and would seem outlandish that he ever did something like that.

NeilHamburger
05-10-2013, 03:17 PM
Is Winker the best reds hitting prospect since Jay Bruce?

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 03:22 PM
Is Winker the best reds hitting prospect since Jay Bruce?

From a solely hitting perspective, yes. I think Mesoraco as an overall prospect when considering his bat for the position you could argue was better and probably win that argument (at least for now). But when not accounting at all for position, I would say that yes, Winker is probably the best hitter since Bruce.

Benihana
05-10-2013, 03:24 PM
Don't forget Votto either. At this time, Winker is probably on par with what Votto was as a prospect (which was less than Bruce).

As good as Winker has been, Gelalich has been just as bad: .691 OPS through almost 300 plate appearances in Rookie and A ball for a sandwich round big college corner outfielder? That's pretty bad.

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 03:31 PM
Don't forget Votto either. At this time, Winker is probably on par with what Votto was as a prospect (which was less than Bruce).

As good as Winker has been, Gelalich has been just as bad: .691 OPS through almost 300 plate appearances in Rookie and A ball for a sandwich round big college corner outfielder? That's pretty bad.

I know plenty of us were confused by his pick that high and he hasn't performed much to show otherwise. The plate discipline is MUCH better this year, so at least it is a step in the right direction.

Benihana
05-10-2013, 03:38 PM
I know plenty of us were confused by his pick that high and he hasn't performed much to show otherwise. The plate discipline is MUCH better this year, so at least it is a step in the right direction.

I agree. Gelalich and LaMarre are perfect examples of why I hate drafting "polished" college hitters with good all around game but no exceptional tools early. Add to that guys like Devin Lohman and Brodie Greene, and I really hope the Reds stop this trend in this year's draft.

Don't get me wrong- there is some value to those types of players especially as organizational filler and occasionally they can turn into a serviceable big leaguer. But they'll almost never be stars, and I want to reserve my first few picks for players who could become stars or at least impact players. Draft the polished, solid guys later.

If there is one kind of polished college player I wouldn't mind the Reds going after in the top 4 or 5 rounds (but not the top 2), it's a SS- much like they did with Cozart back in '07.

Benihana
05-10-2013, 03:41 PM
And ditto for pitchers - more Homer Baileys and Robert Stephensons. Fewer Mike Leakes, Brad Boxbergers and Donnie Josephs - at least in the first couple rounds.

mace
05-10-2013, 03:43 PM
Love that swing of Winker's. It's so simple and pure. With that short stroke, I just don't see him flailing at balls in the dirt and pulling off pitches the way we've seen from, say, Bruce. But then, I wonder if Bruce would have looked much the same at that stage. I kind of don't think so, because I consider Bruce to be a rhythm hitter. He has to start a bit early to get it all going. Winker's swing seems much more concise and purposeful.

texasdave
05-10-2013, 04:21 PM
They kept Bruce in Dayton all year. I guess the plan would be the same with Winker. What happened to 'Challenge Thy Hitters'?

Edd Roush
05-10-2013, 04:48 PM
They kept Bruce in Dayton all year. I guess the plan would be the same with Winker. What happened to 'Challenge Thy Hitters'?

I like challenge thy hitters, but from a business standpoint, the Reds love keeping the Dragons organization happy and winning. Jesse Winker is this team's superstar and the Reds have shown a propensity of keeping their superstar prospects in Dayton for a full year. As I stated earlier, if the Reds wanted to challenge Winker, they would be much more likely to keep him in Dayton for a full year and skip Bakersfield altogether next year than they would to bump him up after the All-Star break this year and then let him start next year in Pensacola.

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 04:48 PM
They kept Bruce in Dayton all year. I guess the plan would be the same with Winker. What happened to 'Challenge Thy Hitters'?

The Reds challenge them once they hit 20. Not so much as teenagers.

klw
05-10-2013, 05:05 PM
Slow start for Winker has been wiped away. In his last 17 games: .397/.493/.638 with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts.

And some video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waNiAn-6aE4

Based on that video, I am worried about his approach at the plate. He swung at every pitch! Talk about not working the count! Otherwise he has a nice looking swing.

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 05:24 PM
Based on that video, I am worried about his approach at the plate. He swung at every pitch! Talk about not working the count! Otherwise he has a nice looking swing.

Haha.

I have been having some video editing problems and essentially, it is very hit or miss as to whether the program locks up when exporting anything over 3 minutes long. So I decided this year to only include swings rather than full at bats in the videos. Between Winker and Seth Mejias-Brean, that led to a lot of clips being left out as they are both very patient hitters.

klw
05-10-2013, 06:00 PM
Haha.

I have been having some video editing problems and essentially, it is very hit or miss as to whether the program locks up when exporting anything over 3 minutes long. So I decided this year to only include swings rather than full at bats in the videos. Between Winker and Seth Mejias-Brean, that led to a lot of clips being left out as they are both very patient hitters.

Glad you got that I was joking. While I can see the use for videos of whole at bats, videos where the guy is actually swinging is much more entertaining to watch.

Vottomatic
05-10-2013, 09:52 PM
I was with you.... until that last line :laugh:

Hence the wink smilie.

dougdirt
05-10-2013, 10:01 PM
Oh I know.... but I really needed to also have a laugh at it.

JaxRed
05-11-2013, 04:23 PM
I agree. Gelalich and LaMarre are perfect examples of why I hate drafting "polished" college hitters with good all around game but no exceptional tools early. Add to that guys like Devin Lohman and Brodie Greene, and I really hope the Reds stop this trend in this year's draft.

Don't get me wrong- there is some value to those types of players especially as organizational filler and occasionally they can turn into a serviceable big leaguer. But they'll almost never be stars, and I want to reserve my first few picks for players who could become stars or at least impact players. Draft the polished, solid guys later.

If there is one kind of polished college player I wouldn't mind the Reds going after in the top 4 or 5 rounds (but not the top 2), it's a SS- much like they did with Cozart back in '07.

Man I was going to make a post just like this until I saw Benihana had already done it. Thought about it last night while watching Lohman and Green, and Lamarre. (Rounds 2-4 in 2010) draft. It's almost as if they were trying to draft career AA players.

PS - Whoever is identifying our top Puerto Rico talent....? Fire him.

redsof72
05-12-2013, 06:58 PM
I like challenge thy hitters, but from a business standpoint, the Reds love keeping the Dragons organization happy and winning.

In their last 21 halves, Dragons have finished with a winning record a total of three times. In the last 10 seasons, Dragons have finished with two winning records.

Benihana
05-12-2013, 08:10 PM
In their last 21 halves, Dragons have finished with a winning record a total of three times. In the last 10 seasons, Dragons have finished with two winning records.

As someone who is seeing him up close everyday, would you agree with the assertion that Winker is the Reds best hitting prospect since Votto and Bruce?

redsof72
05-12-2013, 09:28 PM
I think he is a heck of a prospect. Hard to compare players of different experience levels because a 19 year old has a ways to go to get to where Frazier was in Dayton as a hitter, but, yes, most advanced under-20 hitting prospect since Bruce. Legitimate chance to be an impact major league player. Probably will need to stay in left field. Not as athletic as Bruce but might be a bit further along than Bruce was at the same age strictly as a hitter. Of course, Bruce then made a huge jump during his 20 year old season.

Edd Roush
05-13-2013, 12:09 PM
In their last 21 halves, Dragons have finished with a winning record a total of three times. In the last 10 seasons, Dragons have finished with two winning records.

redsof72, obviously the stats you have presented do not show the Reds commitment to Dayton. That being said, I cannot remember the last Reds' prospect to not spend a full year in Dayton. I will admit, I do not follow other team's minor league teams nearly as closely as I follow the Reds. Therefore, it is entirely possible that every team leaves their top prospects in low A for an entire year. I just think that Winker has a solid chance of staying in Dayton the entire year, rather than be bumped up to Bakersfield at some point.

redsof72
05-13-2013, 01:27 PM
I would agree with you...good chance Winker stays in Dayton for the full season. Yes, most Reds prospects have at least passed through Dayton in recent years. Exceptions would include Cingrani, Alonso, Boxberger, Grandal, but those were understandable situations. All needed to be higher. Problems winning in Dayton have generally not been because top prospects went somewhere else.

Edd Roush
05-13-2013, 02:55 PM
I would agree with you...good chance Winker stays in Dayton for the full season. Yes, most Reds prospects have at least passed through Dayton in recent years. Exceptions would include Cingrani, Alonso, Boxberger, Grandal, but those were understandable situations. All needed to be higher. Problems winning in Dayton have generally not been because top prospects went somewhere else.

Wow, I didn't realize how many exceptions there were to what I said. I guess all four guys you listed were college players so it appears that most, if not all, high school guys who were drafted in the first few rounds have played a full year in Dayton, unless there are other exceptions.

Either way, I hope Winker keeps on raking so we can add a great, cheap bat to the lineup when Phillips, Bruce, Votto and Cueto start getting really expensive.

BoydsOfSummer
05-15-2013, 04:55 AM
Just me or is he a bit of a strider? As in just a hair too long.

membengal
05-17-2013, 06:25 AM
He's an Aragorn? Even better.

RedLegsToday
05-19-2013, 09:53 AM
After yesterday's games (5/18), Jesse is 6th in the Midwest League in OPS. Right behind the awesomely named Rock Shoulders.

Of the top 10 in OPS, Jesse and Byron Buxton are the only two still in their teens.

Not too shabby.

Benihana
05-19-2013, 11:03 AM
Serious question: if they redrafted last year's crop, would Winker now be a Top 10 pick?

Or is 100 games too early to assume he'd jump 40 spots?

Blitz Dorsey
05-19-2013, 01:28 PM
I think he would absolutely be a top-10 pick if they re-did the draft. Here you have a kid who was in high school at this time a year ago who has done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks last June. Tore up Billings and after a slow start at Dayton is tearing up the Midwest League. He's playing with and against guys that are three (or four) years older than him and played three years of college ball ... but he's way better than them.

What I also love about him is his walk total. He obviously has an excellent approach at the plate. He's a future starting corner outfielder for the Reds for sure. What a steal he was in the supplemental first round. It's almost as if he was the Reds' first-round pick and Travieso was one of the supplemental guys. Nothing against Travieso; it's just that Winker is that good.

dougdirt
05-19-2013, 01:48 PM
Serious question: if they redrafted last year's crop, would Winker now be a Top 10 pick?

Or is 100 games too early to assume he'd jump 40 spots?

I don't think he would. Top 20, probably. But top 10 is going to be for pitchers and up the middle tools guys.

Who in the top 10 is going to be kicked out at this point?
Correa is doing well. Buxton is making Winker look like just a solid hitter in the same league at the same age. Zunino is struggling some, albeit he is in AAA. Gausman has 49 strikeouts and 5 walks in AA. Zimmer has 48 strikeouts in 37 innings. Almora is not playing yet, but hit .321 last year with some power and he plays center. Fried has a 2.35 ERA. Heaney is on the DL with a lat strain, but did well last year. David Dahl was in the same league as Winker last year and significantly outhit him. That is the top 10, without Appel who didn't sign. The guy who went 11th in a teenager in the Cal League. Rocking a low BABIP with a strong walk rate and good power, but a high strikeout rate.

I don't even think the Reds would rank him ahead of a guy like Travieso at this point.

Blitz Dorsey
05-19-2013, 08:02 PM
I don't think he would. Top 20, probably. But top 10 is going to be for pitchers and up the middle tools guys.

Who in the top 10 is going to be kicked out at this point?
Correa is doing well. Buxton is making Winker look like just a solid hitter in the same league at the same age. Zunino is struggling some, albeit he is in AAA. Gausman has 49 strikeouts and 5 walks in AA. Zimmer has 48 strikeouts in 37 innings. Almora is not playing yet, but hit .321 last year with some power and he plays center. Fried has a 2.35 ERA. Heaney is on the DL with a lat strain, but did well last year. David Dahl was in the same league as Winker last year and significantly outhit him. That is the top 10, without Appel who didn't sign. The guy who went 11th in a teenager in the Cal League. Rocking a low BABIP with a strong walk rate and good power, but a high strikeout rate.

I don't even think the Reds would rank him ahead of a guy like Travieso at this point.

1. I bet the Reds WOULD rank Winker over Travieso at this point. And Travieso was the 14th overall pick, so we're not far from the top-10.

2. I bet the Pirates would rather have Winker than not have Appel. So, there's at least one top-10 pick there.

:laugh:

dougdirt
05-19-2013, 08:13 PM
1. I bet the Reds WOULD rank Winker over Travieso at this point. And Travieso was the 14th overall pick, so we're not far from the top-10.

2. I bet the Pirates would rather have Winker than not have Appel. So, there's at least one top-10 pick there.

:laugh:

1. I really don't think they would.

2. I bet the Pirates would rather have Addison Russell than Winker. Or Wacha. Or Berrios.

The 2012 draft, at this point, is not having too many people come out and just fall flat on their faces at this point. Even guys like Winker who have come out and basically just beat up all competition they have faced, he can only move up so much because other guys are also doing pretty well and Winker is certainly limited by the fact that he is a left fielder, so he has to rake.

Steve4192
05-22-2013, 04:35 PM
The 2012 draft, at this point, is not having too many people come out and just fall flat on their faces at this point. Even guys like Winker who have come out and basically just beat up all competition they have faced, he can only move up so much because other guys are also doing pretty well and Winker is certainly limited by the fact that he is a left fielder, so he has to rake.

Agreed.

Winker is a damn fine hitter and I am glad the Reds have him, but he doesn't have a lot of projection outside of his hit tool. His power is just OK, his athleticism is poor, and his glove is suspect. He had better be a monster at the dish, because the rest of his game is below average. If his bat falters at all, he doesn't have any other redeeming qualities to get him to the majors.

thorn
05-22-2013, 06:57 PM
Agreed.

Winker is a damn fine hitter and I am glad the Reds have him, but he doesn't have a lot of projection outside of his hit tool. His power is just OK, his athleticism is poor, and his glove is suspect. He had better be a monster at the dish, because the rest of his game is below average. If his bat falters at all, he doesn't have any other redeeming qualities to get him to the majors.

isn't this true for anyone not playing SS or C?

dougdirt
05-22-2013, 06:59 PM
isn't this true for anyone not playing SS or C?

Not really. Left fielders are just above first basemen on the defensive spectrum, so they need to hit more than everyone else. Center fielders, second baseman and even third basemen these days have defensive values that can be quite valuable.

texasdave
05-22-2013, 07:56 PM
From Baseball America:


Jesse Winker, of, Reds: Winker’s 2013 season started off as a disaster. Two weeks into the season, he was hitting .139. For a slow outfielder whose bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues, it was not exactly a great first impression for low Class A Dayton fans. In the 24 games since, he’s quickly changed some minds. Since that lowpoint, Winker has hit .372 with seven doubles and four home runs and nearly as many walks (13) as strikeouts (16). He kept it up with a 2-for-4 day with a double and home run on Tuesday.

Winker is already a full-time left fielder, so there aren’t many other options on the defensive spectrum for him, but his sweet swing does look to be good enough to make it as a bat-first outfielder whose hitting makes up for any concerns defensively.

Vottomatic
05-22-2013, 08:00 PM
Meh. Appreciate the info on Winker.

But the Reds have had plenty of mediocre to below-average left fielders. Dunn comes to mind. Gomes? Paul? I don't even think Ludwick is that great.

If Winker can hit 20 HR's and bat .300 in the majors, I'm sure his defense will be adequate enough.

We've all given Choo a pass because of his offensive prowess.

Steve4192
05-22-2013, 08:41 PM
Meh. Appreciate the info on Winker.

But the Reds have had plenty of mediocre to below-average left fielders. Dunn comes to mind. Gomes? Paul? I don't even think Ludwick is that great.

If Winker can hit 20 HR's and bat .300 in the majors, I'm sure his defense will be adequate enough.

We've all given Choo a pass because of his offensive prowess.

The concern with Winker is that he is a poor athlete as a teenager. Imagine what his athleticism will be like if he puts on a bunch of weight as he gets older or develops some nagging injuries. Right now, his glove projects as 'adequate' to 'passable'. If he porks up or loses a step to injury, OF might not even be an option for him anymore. He might be relegated to 1B.

Guys like Choo, Ludwick and even Dunn were fantastic athletes as teenagers. Choo and Ludwick were both plus defenders in the major leagues when they were in their 20s. The only reason their gloves are mediocre now is that they got old. Winker is likely to arrive in the majors with a mediocre glove, and it will only go downhill from there.

dougdirt
05-22-2013, 08:51 PM
Winker is an average runner right now, so even if he loses a step or two, he will still be fine in left. He does need to put in the work in left though.

Vottomatic
05-22-2013, 11:22 PM
The concern with Winker is that he is a poor athlete as a teenager. Imagine what his athleticism will be like if he puts on a bunch of weight as he gets older or develops some nagging injuries. Right now, his glove projects as 'adequate' to 'passable'. If he porks up or loses a step to injury, OF might not even be an option for him anymore. He might be relegated to 1B.

Guys like Choo, Ludwick and even Dunn were fantastic athletes as teenagers. Choo and Ludwick were both plus defenders in the major leagues when they were in their 20s. The only reason their gloves are mediocre now is that they got old. Winker is likely to arrive in the majors with a mediocre glove, and it will only go downhill from there.

You had me at...........well, anyway.........I always had a hard team believing Adam was also a QB after watching some of his hilarious attempts to throw the ball to the infield from LF. Even in his younger seasons, Dunn seemed awkward to me and uncomfortable in the OF. Still hard to believe he was this great athlete and QB.

OGB
05-22-2013, 11:22 PM
Serious question: how well would Winker have to play to get a promotion this year? I'm not optimistic it will happen, more curious what it would take.

Benihana
05-22-2013, 11:36 PM
Serious question: how well would Winker have to play to get a promotion this year? I'm not optimistic it will happen, more curious what it would take.

IMO if he still carries an OPS over .900 at the All-Star Break, he should be promoted. If he can OPS over .800 in Bakersfield in the 2nd half, he starts next year in AA.

dougdirt
05-22-2013, 11:51 PM
Serious question: how well would Winker have to play to get a promotion this year? I'm not optimistic it will happen, more curious what it would take.

I just don't think it is going to happen. The Reds are slow to promote guys in their first year and I can't recall the last time they promoted a high schooler in their first full year. Jay Bruce was basically doing what Winker is now, but with fewer walks and more power through July and he wasn't promoted. He then played with an injury in August and hit something around .160 and saw his season line fall, but he was destroying the league and didn't get promoted. The guy can certainly hit.

RedsfaninMT
05-23-2013, 12:42 AM
Just looked up Winker's last 10...

In 37 AB, .405, .500, .811, 1.311 with 4 HR, 14 RBI.

That'll do.

Kc61
05-23-2013, 01:33 AM
I just don't think it is going to happen. The Reds are slow to promote guys in their first year and I can't recall the last time they promoted a high schooler in their first full year. Jay Bruce was basically doing what Winker is now, but with fewer walks and more power through July and he wasn't promoted. He then played with an injury in August and hit something around .160 and saw his season line fall, but he was destroying the league and didn't get promoted. The guy can certainly hit.

Jay Bruce's Low A ball year was 2006. Ancient history.

Reds today are much more aggressive promoting players.

I expect Winker to finish this season at Bakersfield.

mrpotamus
05-23-2013, 08:25 AM
Winkler is third in the Midwest league in OPS at .954. Byron Buxton, the second overall pick in the 2012 draft is second. Aside from those two, no other teenagers are in the top 10, and the next closest teenager is at .872, 80 points lower.

If he keeps this up, the Reds would be foolish to keep him at Dayton.

dougdirt
05-23-2013, 01:41 PM
Jay Bruce's Low A ball year was 2006. Ancient history.

Reds today are much more aggressive promoting players.

I expect Winker to finish this season at Bakersfield.

Are they though? While we don't have tons of guys to choose from, which high schooler was promoted quickly in their first full season? Heck, which non-pitcher was promoted quickly in their first full season?

Plus, that Bakersfield outfield is full of guys the Reds want to get full playing time for already, but aren't ready for a promotion at all. I just don't see it being a likely move.

thorn
05-23-2013, 01:48 PM
I don't think moving him to Bakersfield is a wise decision, Bakersfield is fools gold if you ask me. If he puts up these kind of numbers all year, bypass A+ and go straight to AA for the last month or few weeks, challenge thy hitters.

OGB
05-23-2013, 05:37 PM
Plus, that Bakersfield outfield is full of guys the Reds want to get full playing time for already, but aren't ready for a promotion at all. I just don't see it being a likely move.

Hadn't thought about that, although in an ideal world, Waldrop, Selsky, or YRod would play well enough to get promoted, but we know that won't happen.

HokieRed
05-23-2013, 05:46 PM
Hadn't thought about that, although in an ideal world, Waldrop, Selsky, or YRod would play well enough to get promoted, but we know that won't happen.

Might want to check this conclusion against Waldrop's May and his last ten games especially. IMO both Waldrop and YRod are perfectly capable of being promotable to AA later this season, though I don't expect the FO to do that, or to promote Winker until very late because I think they understand sensibly not to rush very young players.

Benihana
05-24-2013, 11:55 AM
1. I really don't think they would.

2. I bet the Pirates would rather have Addison Russell than Winker. Or Wacha. Or Berrios.

The 2012 draft, at this point, is not having too many people come out and just fall flat on their faces at this point. Even guys like Winker who have come out and basically just beat up all competition they have faced, he can only move up so much because other guys are also doing pretty well and Winker is certainly limited by the fact that he is a left fielder, so he has to rake.

1. Completely disagree. The Reds, along with every other team in baseball, would rank Winker over Travieso at this point. To illustrate, I'll basically guarantee you that Winker will make the midseason Top 100 prospects lists. I'd be very surprised if Travieso even gets mentioned on any of them.

2. That said, I agree - so far the top 10-12 guys in the 2012 draft have not disappointed. Winker IMO would now be seen as a Top 20 guy, and maybe even a Top 15 guy, but it's hard to crack that top 10 in this short of time.

lollipopcurve
05-24-2013, 12:08 PM
1. Completely disagree. The Reds, along with every other team in baseball, would rank Winker over Travieso at this point.

Agreed. He's left Travieso in the dust, IMO.

TOBTTReds
05-24-2013, 01:17 PM
Agreed. He's left Travieso in the dust, IMO.

I think saying Travieso has been left in the dust is very shortsighted. Travieso's path is going to be in line with Stephenson's. If Winker were drafted the same year as Stephenson, you would have said this last year about leaving Stephenson in the dust, which looking back you would realize was shortsighted.

The comments about drafting Winker ahead of Travieso are only because he has great stats, while Travieso doesn't have any. Trust me, I have a small man crush on Winker, but his great start doesn't all the sudden make him a better prospect than Travieso. Travieso is doing exactly what was planned for him. Although I don't know his success in extended at this time, I will hope he comes up and pitches well in Billings, and then tastes a bit of A ball with the Dragons, just like Stephenson.

dougdirt
05-24-2013, 01:17 PM
1. Completely disagree. The Reds, along with every other team in baseball, would rank Winker over Travieso at this point. To illustrate, I'll basically guarantee you that Winker will make the midseason Top 100 prospects lists. I'd be very surprised if Travieso even gets mentioned on any of them.


I disagree with your disagreement, unless you know something about Travieso that I don't (ie: he is hurt).

There is no way we can check on it and where each guy ranks on a midseason prospect list won't tell us much other than Winker is playing right now so he is catching more attention. I just don't think that 6 weeks, even 6 very good ones, has changed anything. Heck, Winker actually got some of his points dinged that he got with the bat because there was some conversation he could play right. It seems the Reds said no to that idea and have him in left already. Winker at the plate is doing what he did last year, with a little more power (some of those doubles are turning into home runs already), though I don't think that has surprised anyone. Winker is a Top 100 guy right now, I don't doubt that. He has gotten the exposure, has a pedigree of a higher round pick and he most certainly has the performance. Even I have laid some awfully high praise and comps on the kid. I really, really like that bat.

But at the end of the day, I just don't think that 6 weeks has vaulted him ahead of a guy that went 35 spots ahead of him in the draft when neither guy has shown some sort of change in their skillset.

TOBTTReds
05-24-2013, 01:19 PM
The Reds, along with every other team in baseball, would rank Winker over Travieso at this point.

I don't mean for this to be a call out thread now, but this statement is ludicrous, especially because you make this out to be fact.

Benihana
05-24-2013, 04:41 PM
TOBTT, you are just wrong.

Stephenson was a better prospect than Travieso at the time they both were drafted. The Reds were higher on Travieso than just about any other team. He was projected by BA, Sickels, and many others as a sandwich round pick. Stephenson was in a much, MUCH stronger draft class, and other teams (ie Atlanta and San Francisco) are on record as saying they had their sights set on Stephenson if the Reds didn't take him a pick or two earlier.

In fact there is precedent for what you are suggesting - Tony Cingrani dominated the whole way up despite being drafted two rounds after Stephenson, and no one claimed Cingrani to be the better prospect, despite the fact that Stephenson was pitching in EST.

On the other hand, many experts and teams alike had Winker and Travieso ranked similarly heading into their draft. The fact that Winker has come out of the gate mashing while Travieso is the only uninjured player drafted with the first 25 picks who has yet to make his Full Season debut makes Winker a unanimous (or near it) choice as the better prospect right now. In fact, I bet if we polled the board, it would be at least 90/10 which you almost never see on a Redszone poll.

Benihana
05-24-2013, 05:16 PM
I disagree with your disagreement, unless you know something about Travieso that I don't (ie: he is hurt).

There is no way we can check on it and where each guy ranks on a midseason prospect list won't tell us much other than Winker is playing right now so he is catching more attention. I just don't think that 6 weeks, even 6 very good ones, has changed anything. Heck, Winker actually got some of his points dinged that he got with the bat because there was some conversation he could play right. It seems the Reds said no to that idea and have him in left already. Winker at the plate is doing what he did last year, with a little more power (some of those doubles are turning into home runs already), though I don't think that has surprised anyone. Winker is a Top 100 guy right now, I don't doubt that. He has gotten the exposure, has a pedigree of a higher round pick and he most certainly has the performance. Even I have laid some awfully high praise and comps on the kid. I really, really like that bat.

But at the end of the day, I just don't think that 6 weeks has vaulted him ahead of a guy that went 35 spots ahead of him in the draft when neither guy has shown some sort of change in their skillset.

Winker was no slouch last season either.

Assuming the two were ranked similarly (as they were by Sickels and BA) coming into the draft, who would you prefer - the one who has raked to a .950+ OPS both in Rookie Ball last year and as a 19 year old in A ball this year, or the only uninjured player drafted in the Top 25 yet to make his fullseason debut? Not that you should put a lot of stock in it, but even in the AZL last year, Travieso was hardly lights out (4.71 ERA, 1.3 HR/9, 6.0 K/9).

Sickels had Winker ranked as the 125 best prospect coming into this year. Travieso didn't make the Top 150.
BA had Travieso and Winker ranked one spot off of each other coming into this year.
Law didn't have either ranked in his preseason Top 100, but noted in this week's chat that Winker would certainly make his updated list. Do you think Travieso would?

dougdirt
05-24-2013, 05:25 PM
Winker was no slouch last season either.

Assuming the two were ranked similarly (as they were by Sickels and BA) coming into the draft, who would you prefer - the one who has raked to a .950+ OPS both in Rookie Ball last year and as a 19 year old in A ball this year, or the only uninjured player drafted in the Top 25 yet to make his fullseason debut? Not that you should put a lot of stock in it, but even in the AZL last year, Travieso was hardly lights out (4.71 ERA, 1.3 HR/9, 6.0 K/9).

Sickels had Winker ranked as the 125 best prospect coming into this year. Travieso didn't make the Top 150.
BA had Travieso and Winker ranked one spot off of each other coming into this year.
Law didn't have either ranked in his preseason Top 100, but noted in this week's chat that Winker would certainly make his updated list. Do you think Travieso would?

I want the guy who I think will be a better Major Leaguer. Neither guy has done anything at this point to show me they aren't what I thought they were at the end of last season, when I ranked Travieso higher. I don't care too much about what BA, Sickels, Law or anyone else ranks a guy unless that ranking comes along with information that I don't have on a player. As of right now, no one is bringing any information on Winker or on Travieso that I don't already know about. Winker is a safer bet. Travieso has more upside. They are close, but they were close last year too. But there isn't any new information on either guy that has changed my opinion on either guy.

Vottomatic
05-24-2013, 05:43 PM
I disagree with all the disagreeing going on here.

Geez. This argument still going on? I thought there was new news on Winker or something. :eek:

TOBTTReds
05-24-2013, 06:51 PM
TOBTT, you are just wrong.

Man, is it really that factual?




In fact there is precedent for what you are suggesting - Tony Cingrani dominated the whole way up despite being drafted two rounds after Stephenson, and no one claimed Cingrani to be the better prospect, despite the fact that Stephenson was pitching in EST.

A lot of people still think Cingrani is a reliever because he is a one trick pony (not saying I feel that way, but that's a belief of many in the baseball world). Comparing Cingrani/Stephenson situation isn't necessarily the same as what you are suggesting, because it was pitcher to pitcher. I think other teams may rank Travieso ahead still because he is a pitcher.


The fact that Winker has come out of the gate mashing while Travieso is the only uninjured player drafted with the first 25 picks who has yet to make his Full Season debut makes Winker a unanimous (or near it) choice as the better prospect right now.

So what was Travieso supposed to do this year? The fact that he has been "left in the dust" (I realize you didn't say this) makes it seem like he is doing something wrong. The Reds FO moves their HS pitchers this way, even the best like Robert Stephenson. There is probably absolutely nothing Travieso could have done this spring to escape extended spring.


In fact, I bet if we polled the board, it would be at least 90/10 which you almost never see on a Redszone poll.

No offense to the people of this board, but I could care less what the poll results would be. To be honest I think I'd vote for Winker, but Trav would still be right behind him. You are making this way too black and white though.

TOBTTReds
05-24-2013, 06:57 PM
For the record, this board is at it's best with discussion/arguments like this. I may completely disagree with Benihana right now (and think he's a complete loon ;)), but I'd rather have this discussion than if Chapman ate too many pastries before a game, or if Cozart should be DFA'd.

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2013, 07:22 PM
Benihana is 100 percent right. (And you know it's not easy for a Buckeye to agree with a Wolverine.) Anyone who thinks the Reds (or any other MLB team) would take Travieso over Winker if they could only have one at this point is fooling themselves. And it's nothing against Travieso. He seems like a very-good prospect. But as Benihana mentioned, Travieso and Winker were basically ranked the same by experts entering the draft. It just so happened that the Reds liked Travieso better at the time. OK, fine.

But since then, Winker has raked, raked and raked some more. His stock has skyrocketed around MLB; you better believe that. Travieso was OK during his cameo with the AZL Reds last year. We'll see how he does in Billings this summer. Should be interesting and I bet he does well. But Winker is "next level" good if you ask me. I have no doubt he would be a top-15 overall pick if they re-did the draft. I was probably pushing it saying top-10, but no question top-15 IMO.

And for those questioning his D, doesn't he have pretty good instincts out there and a good arm? Not saying he's a plus defender, I just think saying he's a bad OF is misguided. He's not fast, but he's not a snail out there either. Good arm.

dougdirt
05-25-2013, 03:36 AM
Benihana is 100 percent right. (And you know it's not easy for a Buckeye to agree with a Wolverine.) Anyone who thinks the Reds (or any other MLB team) would take Travieso over Winker if they could only have one at this point is fooling themselves. And it's nothing against Travieso. He seems like a very-good prospect. But as Benihana mentioned, Travieso and Winker were basically ranked the same by experts entering the draft. It just so happened that the Reds liked Travieso better at the time. OK, fine.

Except for the experts who are paid by a Major League Baseball team to evaluate amateur talent. One guy went 14th. Then 34 other players went. Then the next guy went.



I have no doubt he would be a top-15 overall pick if they re-did the draft. I was probably pushing it saying top-10, but no question top-15 IMO.

Travieso was a top 15 pick. Regardless of what Keith Law or Jim Callis thought about him before the draft, Travieso was a Top 15 pick and really, he has done absolutely nothing to suggest he shouldn't have been.



And for those questioning his D, doesn't he have pretty good instincts out there and a good arm? Not saying he's a plus defender, I just think saying he's a bad OF is misguided. He's not fast, but he's not a snail out there either. Good arm.

The fact that you have to ask these questions is why you probably shouldn't be saying something like "Benihana is 100 percent right. (And you know it's not easy for a Buckeye to agree with a Wolverine.) Anyone who thinks the Reds (or any other MLB team) would take Travieso over Winker if they could only have one at this point is fooling themselves."

OGB
05-25-2013, 05:39 AM
On pure physical talent, Travieso was ahead of Winker and remains there. Where Winker has been able to really make himself standout, and why it makes him such an exciting prospect is how advanced and mature he seems for his age. He has an approach to hitting that many teams wish their 23-25 year old prospects with more raw ability could mimick.
In his (albeit very short) career he has 64 walks compared to only 79 strike outs. He has a .428 OBP. He seems to have the ability to hit to all fields.

Just because Winker has performed at a high level, it doesn't change the type of ceiling he projects to have, it just gives you more confidence that he'll be able to hit that ceiling.
He might be a .900 OPS guy who hits 25HR and plays avg LF defense.
Travieso might be a power armed #1 starter.

For that reason I think the Reds would still evaluate and draft them the same way. Winker's first 400+ career at bats just make me feel good about his chances and how soon that may be compared to other players drafted in a similar slot out of HS.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2013, 08:46 AM
I think folks are ignoring a couple things.

Travieso was not very good in his 21 innings in the GCL last year. Winker was excellent in a higher league. The prospect rankings (Baseball America), while not to be trusted as gospel, clearly reflected that Winker looked like the better prospect.

Scouting information, while scant, included statements that Travieso's stuff was not quite as good as pre-draft reports indicated (not the top end fastball). Some reports said the Reds were tweaking Travieso's delivery.

Travieso was a starter in high school for only 1 year. He remains very much a work in progress.

How you put all this information about Travieso together and still come out with a better prospect than Winker, a 19 year old who's tearing up the Midwest League much like Jay Bruce did, I don't know.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2013, 10:59 AM
If Winker were drafted the same year as Stephenson, you would have said this last year about leaving Stephenson in the dust,

No, I wouldn't have. Because at this time last year we had no reason to doubt Stephenson. There's more reason to be skeptical of Travieso.

dougdirt
05-25-2013, 12:40 PM
No, I wouldn't have. Because at this time last year we had no reason to doubt Stephenson. There's more reason to be skeptical of Travieso.

The only reason to be skeptical of Travieso right now is if you were skeptical of him the day he was drafted.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2013, 01:23 PM
The only reason to be skeptical of Travieso right now is if you were skeptical of him the day he was drafted.

Not true. How do you feel about his performance in the GCL last year? How do you feel about the reports that he did not show the upper 90s heat? How about the reports that they were working on refining his delivery? For me, all of this post-draft stuff adds up to a slow start for Travieso. Skepticism, based on what has happened since the draft -- which is not dismissal of him as a prospect -- is not unwarranted.

I look at it in the opposite way. The only reason to believe in Travieso as a better prospect than Winker at this time is if you thought he was a better prospect at the time of the draft. To suggest that nothing has changed since then is to ignore a lot of information in favor of very little.

757690
05-25-2013, 01:28 PM
The only reason to be skeptical of Travieso right now is if you were skeptical of him the day he was drafted.

Exactly.

And plenty of people, including people who get paid to evaluate draft prospects, were very skeptical of Travieso when he was drafted. Which is why many people think that Winker has jumped over him as a pro prospect. They could be wrong, but it's a perfectly reasonable opinion to have.

dougdirt
05-25-2013, 03:02 PM
Not true. How do you feel about his performance in the GCL last year? How do you feel about the reports that he did not show the upper 90s heat? How about the reports that they were working on refining his delivery? For me, all of this post-draft stuff adds up to a slow start for Travieso. Skepticism, based on what has happened since the draft -- which is not dismissal of him as a prospect -- is not unwarranted.

I look at it in the opposite way. The only reason to believe in Travieso as a better prospect than Winker at this time is if you thought he was a better prospect at the time of the draft. To suggest that nothing has changed since then is to ignore a lot of information in favor of very little.

You mean his performance that was insanely limited? I could care less about it. If you put anything into a handful of innings, then you aren't doing this prospect thing right.

I could also care less about his lack of upper 90's heat while having him focus on his mechanics. And it isn't like he was throwing 88-91.

dougdirt
05-25-2013, 03:05 PM
Exactly.

And plenty of people, including people who get paid to evaluate draft prospects, were very skeptical of Travieso when he was drafted. Which is why many people think that Winker has jumped over him as a pro prospect. They could be wrong, but it's a perfectly reasonable opinion to have.

The people paid by the Reds weren't skeptical at all about it and their opinions matter more than any writer.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2013, 03:11 PM
Much has changed since the draft. Doug wants to try and pretend that teams wouldn't change their opinions based on what's transpired since June of 2012. You know, details such as Jesse Winker raking the hell out of the baseball at high-rookie ball and now low-A ball as a teenager. Only Byron Buxton -- the No. 2 overall pick of the draft -- is performing better than Winker offensively (amongst the teenagers in the discussion from the 2012 draft).

Yeah, no way Winker would be a top-15 pick now. (Sarcasm. Extreme version.)

This reminds me of when I used to debate Doug about Cingrani. Let's see if I can go 2-for-2 here.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2013, 03:18 PM
You mean his performance that was insanely limited? I could care less about it. If you put anything into a handful of innings, then you aren't doing this prospect thing right.

I could also care less about his lack of upper 90's heat while having him focus on his mechanics. And it isn't like he was throwing 88-91.

Why do you care at all about these things?

Oh, you COULDN'T care less, I gotcha.

(Just having some fun with you, Doug. Normally I wouldn't correct grammatical mistakes [or errors in writing style in general] from posters. But you're a professional writer and should use the phrase you're intending to use.)

dougdirt
05-25-2013, 03:22 PM
Much has changed since the draft. Doug wants to try and pretend that teams wouldn't change their opinions based on what's transpired since June of 2012. You know, details such as Jesse Winker raking the hell out of the baseball at high-rookie ball and now low-A ball as a teenager. Only Byron Buxton -- the No. 2 overall pick of the draft -- is performing better than Winker offensively (amongst the teenagers in the discussion from the 2012 draft).

Yeah, no way Winker would be a top-15 pick now. (Sarcasm. Extreme version.)

This reminds me of when I used to debate Doug about Cingrani. Let's see if I can go 2-for-2 here.

First off, I never said Winker isn't of improved stock. We even talked about it in this thread. You know, where you had to back off that he was not a top 10 pick if we re-did the draft after I had to show you the guys who were there. You know, since we want to all just pat ourselves on the back.

Jesse Winker was ranked behind Nick Travieso after last season in both the Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus Reds top prospect lists. Both came out well after Jesse Winker destroyed the Pioneer League. The information hasn't changed since then. Is anyone more sold on Winker as a hitter now than they were after he hit .338 in the Pioneer League as an 18 year old? Doubtful.

OGB
05-25-2013, 03:28 PM
Double post sorry

OGB
05-25-2013, 03:36 PM
I think folks are ignoring a couple things.

Travieso was not very good in his 21 innings in the GCL last year. Winker was excellent in a higher league. The prospect rankings (Baseball America), while not to be trusted as gospel, clearly reflected that Winker looked like the better prospect.

Scouting information, while scant, included statements that Travieso's stuff was not quite as good as pre-draft reports indicated (not the top end fastball). Some reports said the Reds were tweaking Travieso's delivery.

Travieso was a starter in high school for only 1 year. He remains very much a work in progress.

How you put all this information about Travieso together and still come out with a better prospect than Winker, a 19 year old who's tearing up the Midwest League much like Jay Bruce did, I don't know.
People need to stop making the Bruce Comparison. True, they both tore up low A. True, Winker has a superior hit tool and better pitch recognition. But Jay Bruce graded out with superior power, superior speed, as a plus plus defender with a plus plus arm, who is capable of playing a more important defensive position.
They aren't the same prospect.

757690
05-25-2013, 03:44 PM
The people paid by the Reds weren't skeptical at all about it and their opinions matter more than any writer.

The Reds opinions matter more than anyone else's when it comes to making the pick. After that, all informed opinions matter roughly the same. I think it's safe to say there are conflicting opinions on whose a better prospect right now between Winker and Travieso.

mth123
05-25-2013, 03:53 PM
My 2 cents:

I think that Travieso, by virtue of a major league scouting organization with a pretty strong track record picking him in the first round in the most recent draft, immediately gained some credibility as a top 100 prospect candidate.

Winker was passed over by all organizations in the first round and, as a result, wasn't really a consideration to be among the elite prospects. He has certainly pushed his way into the picture by virtue of his perfromance, but IMO, it's just too soon to conclude that he's bypassed a guy that a smart organization valued more so recently. Travieso will get more innings this year and at the end of the season we'll have a better idea (maybe). I just think the draft is too recent to completely dismiss what the Reds thought of Travieso on draft day based on some sketchy info and a very limited number of innings. Winker has certainly raised his stock. That's a good thing. I hope they are both in the top 100 when the dust of the 2013 season settles.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2013, 03:58 PM
Is anyone more sold on Winker as a hitter now than they were after he hit .338 in the Pioneer League as an 18 year old? Doubtful.

Sure am. One of the top hitters in the Midwest League, a tough hitters league, through May. Absolutely more sold than I was last year.

And speaking of BA's end-of-season rankings....

On Travieso: "Many observers see him as a power reliever down the road."

On Winker: "A future #3 hitter in a contender's lineup."

If you actually read those reports, you'd find it hard to see how Travieso was placed ahead of Winker.

Bottom line, once the draft is over they have to play.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2013, 03:59 PM
First off, I never said Winker isn't of improved stock. We even talked about it in this thread. You know, where you had to back off that he was not a top 10 pick if we re-did the draft after I had to show you the guys who were there. You know, since we want to all just pat ourselves on the back.

Jesse Winker was ranked behind Nick Travieso after last season in both the Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus Reds top prospect lists. Both came out well after Jesse Winker destroyed the Pioneer League. The information hasn't changed since then. Is anyone more sold on Winker as a hitter now than they were after he hit .338 in the Pioneer League as an 18 year old? Doubtful.

Of course you know Winker has improved his stock. The question is do you agree that he's increased his stock exponentially, and it appears as though you do not.

I actually think there is a chance Winker would be a top-10 overall pick if the re-did the draft. I have no doubt he would be a top-15 pick.

And yes, I DO think that what Winker has accomplished this year at Dayton makes people "more sold" on him. Why wouldn't it? Are you saying if he was OPS'ing in the 700's instead of the 900's this year it wouldn't matter? Of course what he's doing at Dayton has helped improve his stock even more than where it was after his fantastic season at Billings. A lot of guys tear up Billings then fall off the map at Dayton. Right, Sean Buckley?

Benihana
05-25-2013, 04:05 PM
My 2 cents:

I think that Travieso, by virtue of a major league scouting organization with a pretty strong track record picking him in the first round in the most recent draft, immediately gained some credibility as a top 100 prospect candidate.

Winker was passed over by all organizations in the first round and, as a result, wasn't really a consideration to be among the elite prospects. He has certainly pushed his way into the picture by virtue of his perfromance, but IMO, it's just too soon to conclude that he's bypassed a guy that a smart organization valued more so recently. Travieso will get more innings this year and at the end of the season we'll have a better idea (maybe). I just think the draft is too recent to completely dismiss what the Reds thought of Travieso on draft day based on some sketchy info and a very limited number of innings. Winker has certainly raised his stock. That's a good thing. I hope they are both in the top 100 when the dust of the 2013 season settles.

Baseball is the only sport where you cannot definitively assume a guy is a better prospect because he was drafted earlier than another guy. There are many factors that come into play.

For instance, could you assume Amir Garrett was a worse prospect than the 21 guys the Reds drafted before him? Every other team passed on Garrett 21 times as well. How about Drew Cisco in the 2010 draft? Is Jeff Gelalich a better prospect than Winker because the Reds drafted him earlier in last year's draft?

So much comes into play with draft position, but results matter more - especially when a prospect came in with a strong pedigree and his performance is not seen as flukey or attributable to some park/league/age factors. If the prospect's pedigree and projectability are there, results are what matter most. And Winker > Travieso at this point for those reasons.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2013, 04:07 PM
Is Jeff Gelalich a better prospect than Winker because the Reds drafted him earlier in last year's draft?

Winker was taken ahead of Gelalich (both were supplemental first-rounders).

Your overriding point is exactly correct though.

mth123
05-25-2013, 04:15 PM
Baseball is the only sport where you cannot definitively assume a guy is a better prospect because he was drafted earlier than another guy. There are many factors that come into play.

For instance, could you assume Amir Garrett was a worse prospect than the 21 guys the Reds drafted before him? Every other team passed on Garrett 20 times as well. How about Drew Cisco in the 2009 draft? Is Jeff Gelalich a better prospect than Winker because the Reds drafted him earlier in last year's draft?

So much comes into play with draft position, but results matter more - especially when a prospect came in with a strong pedigree and his performance is not seen as flukey or attributable to some park/league/age factors. If the prospect's pedigree and projectability are there, results are what matter most. And Winker > Travieso at this point for those reasons.

Sure there are cases where signability and other factors come into play. Was that the case with Winker, or was it just he wasn't valued as highly? Guy is going to need to rake at a .850+ OPS level to be a good player in the majors. Defense, Speed, Position and other factors aren't in his favor. That has to be part of the math and I'd guess it was on draft day as well.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2013, 04:56 PM
Sure there are cases where signability and other factors come into play. Was that the case with Winker, or was it just he wasn't valued as highly?

Winker had a down senior year. He had fallen on boards as a result. Meanwhile, Travieso blew up radar guns in his senior year and rocketed. Good chance that Winker was considered the better prospect, probably by a safe margin, going into that season.

Benihana
05-25-2013, 05:47 PM
Winker was taken ahead of Gelalich (both were supplemental first-rounders).

Your overriding point is exactly correct though.

Oops, sorry. Swing it back - is Gelalich a better prospect than Tanner Rahier because he was taken earlier?

OGB
05-25-2013, 08:14 PM
I said the following earlier and I feel like it carries weight, and it was almost exclusively ignored because too many forum members' favorite pasttimes are arguing with Doug.

Just because Winker has performed at a high level, it doesn't change the type of ceiling he projects to have, it just gives you more confidence that he'll be able to hit that ceiling.
He might be a .900 OPS guy who hits 25HR and plays avg LF defense.
Travieso might be a power armed #1 starter.


I'm not saying that you can't make an argument that Winker is a better prospect, but I wouldn't. Unless you honestly feel like Travieso doesn't have the ceiling of a #1 starter, or you are deluded as to what Winker's ceiling really is, then I don't see how he has passed him as a prospect.

Either way, if anybody could have told us the day after the draft last year that we'd be having this discussion less than a year later, we'd all be elated. I think we can ALL agree on that.

OGB
05-25-2013, 08:20 PM
I'd say Winker's ceiling projects to 2008-10 Kevin Youkilis as a left fielder.
Travieso's ceiling projects to someone like Matt Cain.

I hope they both reach their full potential.

dougdirt
05-25-2013, 08:33 PM
Sure am. One of the top hitters in the Midwest League, a tough hitters league, through May. Absolutely more sold than I was last year.

And speaking of BA's end-of-season rankings....

On Travieso: "Many observers see him as a power reliever down the road."

On Winker: "A future #3 hitter in a contender's lineup."

If you actually read those reports, you'd find it hard to see how Travieso was placed ahead of Winker.

Bottom line, once the draft is over they have to play.

The reports I saw, based on the stuff, had me questioning what the heck everyone projecting him later in the draft was smoking. The kid has an elite arm.

Benihana
05-26-2013, 01:12 AM
I said the following earlier and I feel like it carries weight, and it was almost exclusively ignored because too many forum members' favorite pasttimes are arguing with Doug.

Just because Winker has performed at a high level, it doesn't change the type of ceiling he projects to have, it just gives you more confidence that he'll be able to hit that ceiling.
He might be a .900 OPS guy who hits 25HR and plays avg LF defense.
Travieso might be a power armed #1 starter.


I'm not saying that you can't make an argument that Winker is a better prospect, but I wouldn't. Unless you honestly feel like Travieso doesn't have the ceiling of a #1 starter, or you are deluded as to what Winker's ceiling really is, then I don't see how he has passed him as a prospect.

Either way, if anybody could have told us the day after the draft last year that we'd be having this discussion less than a year later, we'd all be elated. I think we can ALL agree on that.

So what was Joey Votto's ceiling when he was taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft? When he performed well (but not as well as Winker) in his first two seasons in pro ball, did it just make him more likely to hit that modest ceiling, or do you think there might have been indications that maybe his ceiling was higher than everyone once thought?

dougdirt
05-26-2013, 03:04 AM
Despite all of the disagreement about who is ranked where and who is the better what, Jesse Winker is a freaking stud of a hitter.

icehole3
05-26-2013, 10:19 AM
when Winkler starts hitting the 75-80 walks area each season then he's venturing into Votto's neighborhood. :)

Blitz Dorsey
05-26-2013, 04:25 PM
when Winkler starts hitting the 75-80 walks area each season then he's venturing into Votto's neighborhood. :)

And that's the thing about Winker: Let's forget about the fact he rakes for a moment. He also gets a ton of walks. This is a young man that knows exactly what he's doing when he steps in the batter's box. Great approach, rakes when he makes contact, has decent power, walks a ton. All this adds up to an OPS machine.

Yes, please.

OGB
05-26-2013, 04:58 PM
So what was Joey Votto's ceiling when he was taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft? When he performed well (but not as well as Winker) in his first two seasons in pro ball, did it just make him more likely to hit that modest ceiling, or do you think there might have been indications that maybe his ceiling was higher than everyone once thought?

Votto is a far better athlete than Winker for one thing. He stole 24 bases one year in the minors. From what I've heard, I don't think Winker projects to have nearly as much power as Votto either, though I could be wrong on that.

dougdirt
05-26-2013, 05:42 PM
Votto is a far better athlete than Winker for one thing. He stole 24 bases one year in the minors. From what I've heard, I don't think Winker projects to have nearly as much power as Votto either, though I could be wrong on that.

I don't think Winker is a 37 HR guy. But I don't think Votto is either. He did that once. Even with that, he averages 29 home runs per 162 games (which most guys don't play). I think Winker projects to have similar power to Votto.

Old school 1983
05-27-2013, 04:09 PM
I just think its awesome that we have a player in the system that can be mentioned in the same breath as votto on any level.

M2
05-27-2013, 08:24 PM
So what was Joey Votto's ceiling when he was taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft? When he performed well (but not as well as Winker) in his first two seasons in pro ball, did it just make him more likely to hit that modest ceiling, or do you think there might have been indications that maybe his ceiling was higher than everyone once thought?

Excellent point. I like to bring up Brian Dopirak when discussing Votto because almost the entire baseball industry judged Dopirak the superior talent with the higher ceiling. IIRC, there was even some worry that Votto might not have enough bat to be a quality 1B.

Meanwhile almost no one wondered that about Yonder Alonso, who doesn't have enough bat to be a quality 1B (and no glove either).

Ceilings are fictional constructs. Travieso doesn't have a ceiling or a floor or even walls at the moment. He's a kid who throws hard and the Reds think they might be able to develop him. As of right now, he's no Josh Hall.

Winker doesn't have a ceiling either, but he does have a skill set that's becoming more defined. He's a patient batter with a polished hit tool and some pretty solid power for a teenager in the Midwest League.

mth123
06-23-2013, 07:14 AM
Winker has been in a funk for a couple of weeks. He's gone 4 for 34 since June 7 with a HR and 2 Walks. His line on 6-7 .315/.421/.528/.949 now it's 286/.387/.481/.868. Still a heckuva line, but I thought he was due for a promotion before, not so sure now. Dayton is crowded with Arias, Winker, Gelalich, Amaral, Piggott and maybe Ervin at some point. I figured adding Piggott would lead to a promotion for one of Winker or Arias with the other going up when Ervin arrives.

Arias has gone the other way with a line of .277/.311/.436/747 on 6-7. Now he's at .281/.315/.489/.804. I'd say Arias first.

Vottomatic
06-23-2013, 07:41 AM
Winker has been in a funk for a couple of weeks. He's gone 4 for 34 since June 7 with a HR and 2 Walks. His line on 6-7 .315/.421/.528/.949 now it's 286/.387/.481/.868. Still a heckuva line, but I thought he was due for a promotion before, not so sure now. Dayton is crowded with Arias, Winker, Gelalich, Amaral, Piggott and maybe Ervin at some point. I figured adding Piggott would lead to a promotion for one of Winker or Arias with the other going up when Ervin arrives.

Arias has gone the other way with a line of .277/.311/.436/747 on 6-7. Now he's at .281/.315/.489/.804. I'd say Arias first.

Didn't Yorman get promoted to Pensacola? I thought that was a foreshadowing that Winker was going to Bakersfield. Guess not.

Jamz
06-26-2013, 10:43 AM
Winker has been in a funk for a couple of weeks. He's gone 4 for 34 since June 7 with a HR and 2 Walks. His line on 6-7 .315/.421/.528/.949 now it's 286/.387/.481/.868. Still a heckuva line, but I thought he was due for a promotion before, not so sure now. Dayton is crowded with Arias, Winker, Gelalich, Amaral, Piggott and maybe Ervin at some point. I figured adding Piggott would lead to a promotion for one of Winker or Arias with the other going up when Ervin arrives.

Arias has gone the other way with a line of .277/.311/.436/747 on 6-7. Now he's at .281/.315/.489/.804. I'd say Arias first.

Call me crazy, but I would still promote the guy OPSing close to .900 before the guy OPSing close to .800.

Edd Roush
06-26-2013, 12:05 PM
Call me crazy, but I would still promote the guy OPSing close to .900 before the guy OPSing close to .800.

I usually would agree with this sentiment, however one thing to consider is that the Reds have to decide to put Arias on the 40-man roster well before they have to consider that decision with Winker.

I am a much bigger fan of Winker than Arias (largely due to K:BB ratio), but Arias has much more exhaustive experience in Dayton and it may be a good thing to challenge him with tougher competition seeing how the Reds will have to make that 40 man roster call on him sooner.

Benihana
06-26-2013, 12:06 PM
IMO Arias needs to show sustained success given his rocky history. I'd leave both in Dayton for the next month. By the end of July, I'd promote one or both of them in conjunction with promoting Ervin to Dayton. Ervin should definitely be in Dayton by a month from now, regardless of what happens with Winker and Arias. Worst case they can play an OF of all three and Gelalich can DH.

Pigott and Amaral are not real prospects, so I'm fine with them riding the pine if necessary.

RedTeamGo!
06-26-2013, 12:14 PM
Winker has been in a funk for a couple of weeks. He's gone 4 for 34 since June 7 with a HR and 2 Walks. His line on 6-7 .315/.421/.528/.949 now it's 286/.387/.481/.868. Still a heckuva line, but I thought he was due for a promotion before, not so sure now. Dayton is crowded with Arias, Winker, Gelalich, Amaral, Piggott and maybe Ervin at some point. I figured adding Piggott would lead to a promotion for one of Winker or Arias with the other going up when Ervin arrives.

Arias has gone the other way with a line of .277/.311/.436/747 on 6-7. Now he's at .281/.315/.489/.804. I'd say Arias first.

Kinda sums up by why small sample sizes don't tell the whole story negatively or positively. Same thing with that Ervin thread after 4 games at Billings.

redsof72
06-26-2013, 01:41 PM
Promotions are almost never based on stats, although the stats can be symptoms of the things that are commonly used. Assuming there is available playing time at the next level without taking time away from another prospect, it comes down to how the player's game projects against the upgrade in competition. Example: A player who feasts on fastballs but struggles against any pitcher that can throw a breaking ball for a strike when he is behind in the count might put up great numbers, but he is going to get killed at the next level. He won't be moved up until he starts to show something against the type of pitcher he will see at the higher level. Another player with a more modest set of numbers but without the glaring holes in his game would be deemed more ready. There are examples of both kinds of players everywhere.

You also have to weigh in the player's ability to adjust and the short-term room for growth in his skill set. Example...with some hitters, you can see their performance against certain pitchers and you feel like he has a lightning quick bat and he could still turn it up another notch or two if pushed, and there is another guy who might be putting up better numbers now but he could not handle anything more challenging.

It is all subjective. The Reds would never move any player up a level based on his OPS, although again, the OPS may (or may not) be a symptom of overall readiness to move up.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2013, 01:14 PM
Article from Reds website on Jesse Winker:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130805&content_id=55958960&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

WillRich
08-07-2013, 07:08 PM
When will the Reds give him a shot at Bakersfield? The outfield at Dayton is full with Ervin, Winker, and Gelalich. Winker has a .324/.432/.432 slash line in his last 10 games and hit another home run last night. The guy can stroke, promote him!

RED VAN HOT
08-07-2013, 07:31 PM
Agree that he has played well enough to be promoted. On the other hand, Dayton is 2.5 games out of a playoff spot after a disappointing season. There are only 25 games left and Bakersfield is going nowhere. It's not clear to me that a move to Bakersfield now really shortens his path to the majors.

LoganBuck
08-07-2013, 11:40 PM
I would rather see how some of these guys react to a playoff chase in Dayton, instead of running out the string at Bakersfield.

redsof72
08-07-2013, 11:58 PM
No chance he goes to Bakersfield. You have to let guys play in big games with the pressure of a playoff opportunity, or else they get to the big leagues and they have never learned to win tight, hard-fought games against teams of equal talent levels. You get players who can win the games against teams of far inferior talent but they don't know how to win in games against playoff-caliber teams. Hmmmm. Nothing like that happening now in the big leagues, right?

Most Reds prospects right now are getting to big leagues having played on losing teams all the way through the system. The Reds current Farm System overall record ranks 30th out of 30. You want your prospects playing in a culture where they expect to lose every night, or in situations where they learn how to find something extra in themselves and pull out tight games, like Winker did tonight with a 3-run bomb in the 8th, down by 2.

dougdirt
08-08-2013, 12:33 PM
No chance he goes to Bakersfield. You have to let guys play in big games with the pressure of a playoff opportunity, or else they get to the big leagues and they have never learned to win tight, hard-fought games against teams of equal talent levels. You get players who can win the games against teams of far inferior talent but they don't know how to win in games against playoff-caliber teams. Hmmmm. Nothing like that happening now in the big leagues, right?

Most Reds prospects right now are getting to big leagues having played on losing teams all the way through the system. The Reds current Farm System overall record ranks 30th out of 30. You want your prospects playing in a culture where they expect to lose every night, or in situations where they learn how to find something extra in themselves and pull out tight games, like Winker did tonight with a 3-run bomb in the 8th, down by 2.

The second half has gone better than the first for the most part. Louisville is hovering around .500 for the last 3 months, but is in the playoff race. Pensacola has a winning record here in the second half after a truly poor first half. Same for Dayton. Bakersfield.... well, they are still struggling. Youngest offensive players in the league by far though, so it is no wonder the offense is bad.

RED VAN HOT
08-08-2013, 02:00 PM
Next year should be much better for Bakersfield. Not only are they getting some talented players moving up, but also opening a new park.

wastedtime
08-08-2013, 03:15 PM
With the arrival of Ervin, I'm not certain how Dayton loses games. Winker, Arias, Ervin, and Mejias-Brean make up one heck of a lineup.

JayBruceFan
08-08-2013, 04:19 PM
Arias is long gone from Dayton

wastedtime
08-08-2013, 11:11 PM
oh yeah

bellhead
08-09-2013, 02:35 AM
That will be a strong lineup next year in Bakersfield.

Blitz Dorsey
08-09-2013, 02:06 PM
With Bakersfield getting a new park, I'm confident their average attendance will rise from 200 per game to 220.

Edd Roush
08-09-2013, 02:26 PM
That will be a strong lineup next year in Bakersfield.

Is it a lock that Winker goes to Bakersfield next year? If he ends this year with a BB rate of 12+, keeps his K rate below 15 and gets that ISO above 200, I think he would be fine skipping the hitter's league out in California and see some adversity in Pensacola. I like the idea of challenging our hitters and while being a 20 year old in AA would be tough, I think he might have the chops to handle it.