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Kc61
06-06-2012, 05:58 PM
The starting pitching has fallen off a bit. The overall starting ERA is now 4.08, worse than league average. Cueto's ERA is 2.54. Arroyo 3.91. Bailey 4.39. Latos 4.91. Leake 4.95. Each has had 11 starts, except for Leake who's had 10.

The overall team pitching numbers are much better because the bullpen has a fabulous ERA of 2.39.

I know ERA is not the whole picture, just trying to start off a discussion.

Reds starters have relatively high BAA at .275. But they have walked only 89, tied for second fewest in the league.

The front office has heavily focused on pitching. Are the starters fading? Is the starting staff good enough for a playoff contender?

I'm optimistic and believe that the starting pitchers have had a short slump and will come back strong. In particular, I'm looking for Latos and Leake to have very good outings in the next period of time. Neither has had a hot streak yet, they are due for one.

I'm sure this will turn into a Chapman discussion, it's not intended. Despite the ERA, I think the current rotation is pretty good and will get better. And Dusty, Arroyo goes 90-95 pitches from now on. Other thoughts?

MWM
06-06-2012, 06:05 PM
I'd be shocked if Latos doesn't get significantly better. Mike Leake will most likely get much better as well. Homer is probably who we've seen so far this year, so I'd expect him to stay pretty flat. Cueto may fall a bit, but not overly much.

If I were Walt I'd be much more worried about the bench and getting someone who can get on base at the top of the lineup than I would be about the starting pitching.

Kc61
06-06-2012, 06:07 PM
I'd be shocked if Latos doesn't get significantly better. Mike Leake will most likely get much better as well. Homer is probably who we've seen so far this year, so I'd expect him to stay pretty flat. Cueto may fall a bit, but not overly much.

If I were Walt I'd be much more worried about the bench and getting someone who can get on base at the top of the lineup than I would be about the starting pitching.

I agree that starting pitching is not the team's big weakness. But it is a critical part of the ballclub, so it's worth discussing I think.

RedsManRick
06-06-2012, 06:40 PM
Reds Starters in 2012:


K% 17.0% 14th
BB% 6.4% 2nd
HR/9 1.19 14th

GB% 41.3% 16th
LD% 23.3% 15th
BABIP .302 12th
DER .705 7th

ERA 4.08 10th
FIP 4.20 12th
SIERA 4.02 12th

-Not enough strikeouts
-Too many homers
-Too many liners
-Not nearly as much help from the defense as you might expect

Bottom line is that, in aggregate, the Reds have a staff full of control artists who don't miss bats and (not surprisingly) get hit hard. That's not a recipe for success.

DGullett35
06-06-2012, 06:58 PM
4 games in June so im not panicking yet. However that doesn't mean im not concerned. Cueto needs to have a strong outing tonight. I think we can expect Bailey, Leake and Arroyo to be up and down. Latos should be fine in the long run also. Im trying to be optomistic:)..When I was still in the Sundeck I was all for trying to obtain Oswalt and guys thought I was crazy. He would be a pretty good backup plan right now.

Kc61
06-06-2012, 11:13 PM
Dusty needs to remove starting pitchers a bit earlier in the game. He pushes guys until there is trouble.

Excellent bullpen, no need for this. Happened two of the last three games, and many times over the years.

HokieRed
06-06-2012, 11:20 PM
No help coming from Chapman that I can see. He's too important in bailing out Dusty for his overextension of the starters and failures in handling the bullpen.

WVRedsFan
06-06-2012, 11:29 PM
It's funny that I can see when Johnny is tiring and Dusty can't. Luckily, it didn't cost us a game, but it could have easily.

*BaseClogger*
06-06-2012, 11:55 PM
Reds Starters in 2012:


K% 17.0% 14th
BB% 6.4% 2nd
HR/9 1.19 14th

GB% 41.3% 16th
LD% 23.3% 15th
BABIP .302 12th
DER .705 7th

ERA 4.08 10th
FIP 4.20 12th
SIERA 4.02 12th

-Not enough strikeouts
-Too many homers
-Too many liners
-Not nearly as much help from the defense as you might expect

Bottom line is that, in aggregate, the Reds have a staff full of control artists who don't miss bats and (not surprisingly) get hit hard. That's not a recipe for success.

Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

Leake's groundball rate has decreased each year has been in the league, and Latos isn't the groundball-neutral guy we had hoped for. I assume it's because he's throwing less sliders, which is a pitch with downward movement and generates a lot of weak contact.

Like you said, home runs are going to happen with a staff that surrenders a lot of contact, especially flyballs. I think those are unavoidable unfortunately, especially in such a home ballpark.

The defense will hopefully improve, and Latos needs to start getting on track...

puca
06-07-2012, 10:03 AM
It is a staff that, even with this offense, can win a very weak central division. However without a serious offensive upgrade it is probably not one that can carry this team very deep into the playoffs.

RedlegJake
06-07-2012, 02:50 PM
Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

Leake's groundball rate has decreased each year has been in the league, and Latos isn't the groundball-neutral guy we had hoped for. I assume it's because he's throwing less sliders, which is a pitch with downward movement and generates a lot of weak contact.

Like you said, home runs are going to happen with a staff that surrenders a lot of contact, especially flyballs. I think those are unavoidable unfortunately, especially in such a home ballpark.

The defense will hopefully improve, and Latos needs to start getting on track...

Bingo. There's the rub for me. In a park that punishes flyballs the Reds have a flyball staff. That's the one big thing I don't much like about their rotation.

MikeThierry
06-07-2012, 03:19 PM
Bingo. There's the rub for me. In a park that punishes flyballs the Reds have a flyball staff. That's the one big thing I don't much like about their rotation.

I have never understood this about the Reds. Why will they not build a ground ball staff in a ball park in which if you have simple popup, it will carry out? You guys have a spectacular defense and would be better served to use that to your advantage. A ground ball staff can work. Under Dave Duncan, the Cards average the 3rd best ERA in baseball. That's with bums starting in their rotation (Kent Bottenfield anyone). Sure, they had the Kile's, Carpenter's, and Wainwright's of the world starting but they never had a staff like the Braves had during that time.

Kc61
06-07-2012, 03:29 PM
Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

Leake's groundball rate has decreased each year has been in the league, and Latos isn't the groundball-neutral guy we had hoped for. I assume it's because he's throwing less sliders, which is a pitch with downward movement and generates a lot of weak contact.

Like you said, home runs are going to happen with a staff that surrenders a lot of contact, especially flyballs. I think those are unavoidable unfortunately, especially in such a home ballpark.

The defense will hopefully improve, and Latos needs to start getting on track...

One metric is GB%. The starting pitchers with the top GB% in baseball are over 50%.

Cueto has a 48.4% ground ball rate. This pitcher has really, really developed. I don't recall Cueto starting as a high ground ball type, but the more advanced Cueto can get the ground ball. Oddly, so far, Cueto has the lowest K/9 rate among the team's starters, 5.95.

Leake has a 44.8% ground ball rate. This is good, but as noted, he's the type of pitcher who should have a higher rate. He also has a high LD rate so far this year, 29%.

Bailey has a 38.8% ground ball rate. He fans 6.44 per nine. Probably he needs to improve in one category or the other, more ground balls or more Ks to improve much, particularly at GABP.

Latos has a 38.2% ground ball rate. He also has the team's (starters) highest fly ball rate, 43%. He also has, by far, the highest K/9 rate among starters on the team, 8.09. He has the lowest LD% among the team's starters, 18.8%.

Arroyo has a 37.2% ground ball rate. We all know Arroyo is a fly ball pitcher, currently 40.3% fly balls. He isn't changing at this stage, but he has other attributes if used properly (Bronson has always done well with men on base). IMO Bronson has been very good this year, and his numbers would be better except he's sometimes left in the game too long.

RedsManRick
06-07-2012, 03:36 PM
Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

I wanted to and probably should have. I recall thinking it was closer to average, but I just looked and for the season, the staff has the 13th worst (lowest) GB:FB ratio. As you point out, that's not a great idea - -and 3 of our 5 starters to be fly ball guys.

oregonred
06-08-2012, 03:26 PM
Definitely a lousy couple weeks for the starters after a great run most of May.

Lucky to be 6-6 during the last twelve games. Missed chance to run up a few more wins against inferior competition...

WVRedsFan
06-09-2012, 12:42 AM
Latos = better but not there yet.