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fearofpopvol1
06-07-2012, 12:18 AM
Since there are literally numerous other threads, figured it would be good to have 1 thread where everything could be discussed.

So now that all picks have been made, how do you think the Reds did? What grade would you give them based on the information you have, assuming most if not all of the top 10 sign? How do you think the Reds did in rounds 11-40? Anyone catch your eye in those rounds? Who are your favorite picks? And least favorite picks?

I like Jamie Ramsey's recap the best: http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/2012/06/06/reds-draft-recap/

For what it's worth, Keith Law did not pick the Reds as a winner or a loser for the draft on espn.com. Oddly enough, he didn't have the Astros or the Nationals as winners either, which many on RZ thought they were.

Birdman007
06-07-2012, 12:36 AM
Well I'm obviously no expert but I thought they had a great draft. I'm very excited to see Travieso, Winker, and Rahier get started with their careers. I'm shocked we were able to get a kid like Rahier in the 2nd round when most had him going in the 2nd half of the first round.

GoReds19
06-07-2012, 01:49 AM
I really liked the Tanner Rahier pick and the Seth Mejias-Brean pick. I think both those picks were steals.

icehole3
06-07-2012, 05:24 AM
I think 28 pitchers were drafted, I love it, maybe next year theyll draft 29 :)

757690
06-07-2012, 10:33 AM
My impression, based only on what I read, is that after around pick 10, everyone else from 10-100 was pretty much interchangeable. That is, a guy rated 18 really wasn't that much better than the guy rated 72 on most lists. They all had a ton of talent, but some big warts as well.

I think that's why it wasn't surprising or that big of a deal to see the Reds pick at 14 rated about as high as their pick at 78. It will be interesting in a few years to see how they all panned out.

Benihana
06-07-2012, 11:18 AM
With all the caveats that it's impossible to judge now and all grades are incomplete, yadda yadda yadda... (REMINDER: THIS IS A MESSAGEBOARD)

I give the Reds a B/B+ for this draft. They employed the strategy I wanted them to in going after higher-risk, higher-reward players like Travieso, Winker, and Rahier. Travieso seemed a bit of a reach with Gioloto on the board, but certainly nothing worth getting upset over- the scouts have earned my trust. The two biggest organizational needs were a big power bat (likely as a corner OF) and a future 3B with upside. They got both of those in Winker and Rahier, and hopefully won't have a problem signing either one. Gelalich doesn't do all that much for me as he seems like a slightly better hitting worse fielding LaMarre. He seems to be more in the Wright-Lohman-Greene-Valaika mold that this regime likes to go after- solid college players with no outstanding tool. Those players seem like major league backups to me. Langfield seems to have some upside, and the Reds have done well with the college relievers in the past few years, especially those drafted in the third round (Cingrani, Joseph, Stewart). Would have liked to have seen one more upside pick in rounds 4-11, but those rounds are a lot less relevant in the bigger picture.

Last year, the success of the draft seemed to hinge on Stephenson. To me, the player to watch from this year's draft is Rahier. I love that pick. If he ends up being what most experts thought he was, this will be a very solid draft.

FWIW, here's Keith Law's take:



Cincinnati Reds
Summary: Nick Travieso (1) was a reach for me at 14, a huge arm-strength guy (up to 99) who will flash a plus slider but is maybe 50/50 to end up a starter. Jesse Winker (1A) was a high-profile guy before the season, but he's a corner outfielder whose entire game in his bat, which was disappointing this spring. He is a risk to have huge platoon splits in pro ball. Jeff Gelalich (1A) was solid value as a fairly toolsy college player who should stay in right and who improved his approach dramatically this year, allowing his raw power to show up more in games. Tanner Rahier (2) was a fringe first-rounder for me as an advanced high school bat who might not stay at short but should make enough line-drive contact to profile at third. Dan Langfield (3) is another arm-strength guy with a history of below-average command and control due to a stiff, pie-thrower delivery. Jon Moscot (4) has good control with a four-pitch mix, although his arm action is a little messy in back. Beau Amaral (7) has a chance as an extra outfielder. His father, Rich, played for Seattle and Baltimore in the 1990s.


Also FWIW, the drafts I liked more than the Reds were the Padres, Astros, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Jays, and (gulp) the Cardinals- if they can sign Kelly and Williams (a big if).

RedlegJake
06-07-2012, 04:07 PM
I think Law is a tool. Always have. I think there's a half dozen or more guys on RedsZone whose opinions have more weight for me. Probably 50 national writers I respect more. Basically, if Law likes it I probably don't and vice-versa.

Travieso is a solid pick given the Reds knowledge of the kid on a personal level. I am convinced the big ? in scouting isn't talent it's judging the fire, coachability and ambition between the ears. They were really in on this kid so I'm betting his intangibles are off the charts for them.

Winkler and Gelalich were picked for their bats - one has more power potential, the other is an on base machine with some modest power potential of his own. Haven't read anywhere where they didn't like their bats so I'm happy.

Rahier is a steal and as good as a 4th #1 pick. Get him signed. May take more than slot but they may get Nick for less so the money should be there.

Langfield, Moscot, and Felt are collegiate arms, likely to sign - Langfield is a raw power arm. #10 Jeremy Kivel is a hard sign more than likely but a major prospect if they can get it done. Another guy who would ave been higher on the board if the signability issue wasn't there.
If the Reds somehow signed all 10 of there top ten picks this would be an incredible draft.
The 11-15 picks were all college guys, all signable, Brent Peterson, the SS from California was selected by the Reds in 2010. Reports are that he is ready to sign. Klimesh #15 may be the best of this crop and some had him going in the top ten. He dominated at Trinity College, has three pitches and hits 95.
Just about the best draft I've watched in terms of my own feelings about the players drafted. Of course, that means squat, but at least for a little while I can believe my team had an incredible draft and we have 4 or 5 future Hall-of-Famers waiting to play!

dougdirt
06-07-2012, 04:41 PM
I just did my draft review and I gave the Reds an A. In a weak draft, they were able to add a lot of upside guys in the first 5 rounds and filled out plenty of 'depth guys' as well. I really don't think you could have asked for more than they did in a draft that was considered to be historically poor.

Benihana
06-07-2012, 04:45 PM
Of course it is difficult to grade these things, especially in the same week that they occur. However, while I really like what the Reds did with their picks in going for upside, it is hard for me to give them an A given that there are 5-7 teams who I feel got a better haul. Operating under a curve assumption is what bumps them back to a B/B+ for me.

RedlegJake
06-07-2012, 04:51 PM
I think the Reds did as well or better than any team in the draft with the same or fewer picks who wasn't in the top ten draftwise. I like the Astros and Nationals better and the Cards after screwing up their first 2 picks finished strong but then they had a bazillion picks and still have a couple of tough signs to make their draft look good.

Benihana
06-07-2012, 04:53 PM
I think the Reds did as well or better than any team in the draft with the same or fewer picks who wasn't in the top ten draftwise. I like the Astros and Nationals better and the Cards after screwing up their first 2 picks finished strong but then they had a bazillion picks and still have a couple of tough signs to make their draft look good.

Not to pick nits, but the Nationals didn't pick in the top ten.

If the Reds had taken Giolito over Travieso and the rest of the draft was the exact same, I'd give them an A+. And I agree that the Cardinals (like the Jays) will have to sign some of their tougher signs in order to make their class look really good.

The Padres with Fried, Eflin and Weichel really loaded up on upside. Jankowski was a similar mold to Gelalich.

RedlegJake
06-07-2012, 04:56 PM
And when the ligament came off Giolito's elbow and Travieso was at least closing for someone that pick would bite you. I'm convinced the Reds who were linked to Giolito by some pundits, looked at his health and made their pick accordingly. You don;t pass on an arm like Giolito's unless you're really worried about his health.

Benihana
06-07-2012, 04:57 PM
And when the ligament came off Giolito's elbow and Travieso was at least closing for someone that pick would bite you. I'm convinced the Reds who were linked to Giolito by some pundits, looked at his health and made their pick accordingly. You don;t pass on an arm like Giolito's unless you're really worried about his health.

Of course that may be true. Only time will tell.

Don't get me wrong, I liked the Reds draft a lot. But you can't write Travieso into the big leagues -even as a closer- just yet. The ligament came off of Strasburg's elbow after they drafted him, and he (and the team) are doing just fine with that pick.

dougdirt
06-07-2012, 05:44 PM
Of course it is difficult to grade these things, especially in the same week that they occur. However, while I really like what the Reds did with their picks in going for upside, it is hard for me to give them an A given that there are 5-7 teams who I feel got a better haul. Operating under a curve assumption is what bumps them back to a B/B+ for me.

I don't really like the idea of grading on the curve because all teams aren't operating at the same level. Draft budgets are entirely different as was the value of first round picks.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2012, 06:38 PM
You can't grade this stuff on anything but a subjective scale at this point.

Supposedly a pretty thin crop so my hopes aren't especially high, even though they did get a couple supplemental picks. Let's hope one of the high-upside high school kids delivers on his promise. More than one would be great.

camisadelgolf
06-07-2012, 06:57 PM
I think the lack of talent in this draft was a little exaggerated. It was certainly below average and the lowest it had been in a while, but I feel like we were seeing a lot of strong draft classes in a short period of time.

RedlegJake
06-07-2012, 07:21 PM
I think it was "low" in the absence of superstar types and really high ceiling guys but in its overall strength for the next level I think it was fairly strong and deep.

RedlegJake
06-07-2012, 07:52 PM
Just looked up and found more info on Nick Routt and I'm surprised and pleased with what I found. Sounds like a lefty that could move up for a 16th pick. See his thread for link.

PuffyPig
06-08-2012, 09:01 AM
Hard to give grades until you see who gets signed.

Somes teams picked some players who dropped because of salary demands, and makes their draft look quite a bit better. With a set limit for each team to spend, it will be hard for those players who fell for $$$ reasons to actually get signed. Mark Appel comes to mind. His salary demands scared the Astros away, how will the Pirates satisfy his demands when their slot amount is $4.3M less?

dougdirt
06-08-2012, 09:52 AM
Hard to give grades until you see who gets signed.

Somes teams picked some players who dropped because of salary demands, and makes their draft look quite a bit better. With a set limit for each team to spend, it will be hard for those players who fell for $$$ reasons to actually get signed. Mark Appel comes to mind. His salary demands scared the Astros away, how will the Pirates satisfy his demands when their slot amount is $4.3M less?

By signing a bunch of guys for $10-25,000 in rounds 5-10 and hoping they can make it work out.

redsmetz
06-08-2012, 10:09 AM
By signing a bunch of guys for $10-25,000 in rounds 5-10 and hoping they can make it work out.

I'm not sure anyone really knows how this will all work out. I certainly can't say whether this will work out to be a fairer system (I doubt it), but we really won't know until everything shakes out and perhaps not at all for another 3 or 4 years as we see how various non-signees progress outside of pro ball and come back into the draft.

I certainly looks as if the Reds drafted as well as they could with this new system, looking for players with potentially high upsides and who seem highly signable.

At this point, though, we don't know how any club is going to juggle the pool of money they have budgeted; how some will exceed those amounts and absorb the penalty. As I recall, there are other penalties that can come into play by repeatedly exceeding the CBA limits.

I'm not an attorney, but it's also possible that MLB's special anti-trust exception might preclude that, but then again, it could be just the type of case that could cause the Supreme Court to revisit their Federal Baseball Club v. National League decision. Their conclusion today seems archaic today, although it has been upheld on occasion, mostly recently in Flood v. Kuhn in 1972.

And it won't surprise me at some point that some player and an agent decide to suit MLB on a "restraint of trade" issue with individuals not a party to the CBA being constrained by these limitations in attempting to ply their trade. Not sure how that would play out, but it wouldn't shock me (Boras and Appel seem like they could be prime candidates).

MikeS21
06-08-2012, 10:42 AM
It's hard to know how to feel. To get a first rounder and two comp picks - well, its been forever since the Reds lost a player to FA who was worth comp picks.

I think the Reds did as well as they could, considering most of the big names were off they board before the 14th pick came around. I certainly do not feel as if these comp picks were squandered like the last comp pick was. Those were some terrible drafts back in those days.

dougdirt
06-08-2012, 10:46 AM
I'm not sure anyone really knows how this will all work out. I certainly can't say whether this will work out to be a fairer system (I doubt it), but we really won't know until everything shakes out and perhaps not at all for another 3 or 4 years as we see how various non-signees progress outside of pro ball and come back into the draft.

At this point, though, we don't know how any club is going to juggle the pool of money they have budgeted; how some will exceed those amounts and absorb the penalty. As I recall, there are other penalties that can come into play by repeatedly exceeding the CBA limits.



We have already seen how teams are going to try and juggle their money.

Between the 8th and 10th rounds there were 41 seniors drafted. In the 11th round there was 1. Teams loaded up on easy and cheap signs to save hundreds of thousands to a million dollars in the 6-10th rounds so they could spend it elsewhere. Seniors tend to sign between $5,000-50,000. Mark Serrano for example, was a senior drafted by the Reds a few years ago. He went in the 6th round and was coming off of a statistical season in college that few could rival (2.50 ERA, 132 K's and 23 walks in 86.1 innings). He signed quickly for $25,000. The slot this year for the same pick in the draft? $224,000. One pick like that saves you nearly $200,000. Draft 4 guys like that between rounds 5 and 10 and you can save yourself $400-600,000 to spend elsewhere.

dougdirt
06-08-2012, 10:48 AM
It's hard to know how to feel. To get a first rounder and two comp picks - well, its been forever since the Reds lost a player to FA who was worth comp picks.

I think the Reds did as well as they could, considering most of the big names were off they board before the 14th pick came around. I certainly do not feel as if these comp picks were squandered like the last comp pick was. Those were some terrible drafts back in those days.

Our last comp pick was Brad Boxberger. Not really a wasted pick. The ones before him were Lotzkar and Frazier. Didn't waste those.

Benihana
06-08-2012, 01:17 PM
Our last comp pick was Brad Boxberger. Not really a wasted pick. The ones before him were Lotzkar and Frazier. Didn't waste those.

Perhaps he was referring to Mark Schramek, the Comp pick in 2002? That was a pretty bad pick. Of course, in the second round they got some catcher from HS in Canada named Votto.

Superdude
06-08-2012, 02:35 PM
Perhaps he was referring to Mark Schramek, the Comp pick in 2002? That was a pretty bad pick. Of course, in the second round they got some catcher from HS in Canada named Votto.

Canadian catcher? Probably a signability pick to save money for Schramek.

Benihana
06-08-2012, 03:40 PM
Quick predictions
First to majors: Langfield
First pick not to sign: Kivel
First to stir up a controversial Redszone debate thread: Gelalich

redsmetz
06-08-2012, 04:11 PM
Quick predictions
First to majors: Langfield
First pick not to sign: Kivel
First to stir up a controversial Redszone debate thread: Gelalich

Great post. I think your predictions may well be spot on.

I can hardly find anything reporting on Kivel and I'm thinking he'll opt for college because $125K (or even some slightly higher amount if we have leftover money) won't get him in. In previous years, had someone fallen to us like this, we'd have sweetened the pot considerably. Then again, there's a chance someone like this wouldn't have fallen to 10th round.

MikeS21
06-08-2012, 04:18 PM
Perhaps he was referring to Mark Schramek, the Comp pick in 2002? That was a pretty bad pick. Of course, in the second round they got some catcher from HS in Canada named Votto.
Exactly! That would be the guy. And who's this Votto fella? :p

corkedbat
06-08-2012, 04:53 PM
Quick predictions
First to majors: Langfield
First pick not to sign: Kivel
First to stir up a controversial Redszone debate thread: Gelalich

I think if Langfield is going to make it to the majors fast, it will be as a reliever and I think that the road ahead of him may be pretty crowded over the next two or three years. The OF picture on the other hand is not so crowded (especially on the left side). I don't mecessarily see Gelalich as a perennial all-star and maybe not even a full-time starter in the bigs. He's already a fairly polished defensive OFer and if he can show fairly strong OBP tendencies, I can see him moving fairly quickly and serving as a 4th OF/LH bat off the bench.

edabbs44
06-08-2012, 07:26 PM
Not to pick nits, but the Nationals didn't pick in the top ten.

If the Reds had taken Giolito over Travieso and the rest of the draft was the exact same, I'd give them an A+. And I agree that the Cardinals (like the Jays) will have to sign some of their tougher signs in order to make their class look really good.

The Padres with Fried, Eflin and Weichel really loaded up on upside. Jankowski was a similar mold to Gelalich.

You may have seen a domino effect with Giolito, however, as his $ may have prevented them from scoring someone like Rahier a little later.

Benihana
06-09-2012, 12:35 PM
The fact that the Jays have been able to sign (already) Smoral and Alford is quite impressive. If they can bring their two first rounders into the fold in Davis and Stroman, they may come out as the biggest winners in the draft. That says nothing about Mitch Nay and Tyler Gonzalez, which would just be gravy.

Houston being (possibly/reportedly) able to sign Virant in the 11th would be a huge coup as well.

Appel got lit up last night. I wonder what that will do to his negotiations.

dougdirt
06-09-2012, 12:37 PM
Appel got lit up last night. I wonder what that will do to his negotiations.

I imagine that it will do absolutely nothing to them except get them started earlier if it leads/lead to his team being eliminated earlier.

Gallen5862
06-09-2012, 06:41 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

ESPN's Jayson Stark hears that the Pirates are expected to offer eighth overall pick and Stanford right-hander Mark Appel a slot $2.9MM signing bonus and hold the line until the July 13th deadline as they sign their other picks. "I don't see how," said one executive when asked if a deal will get done between the team and the Scott Boras client.

Tony Cloninger
06-09-2012, 07:12 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

ESPN's Jayson Stark hears that the Pirates are expected to offer eighth overall pick and Stanford right-hander Mark Appel a slot $2.9MM signing bonus and hold the line until the July 13th deadline as they sign their other picks. "I don't see how," said one executive when asked if a deal will get done between the team and the Scott Boras client.

What's Boras going to do? He has to sign for slot......and if he continues to hold out....like that other idiot he had as a client....did years ago and never really came back to pitch in the majors.

Tony Cloninger
06-09-2012, 07:20 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

ESPN's Jayson Stark hears that the Pirates are expected to offer eighth overall pick and Stanford right-hander Mark Appel a slot $2.9MM signing bonus and hold the line until the July 13th deadline as they sign their other picks. "I don't see how," said one executive when asked if a deal will get done between the team and the Scott Boras client.

What's Boras going to do? He has to sign for slot......and if he continues to hold out....like that other idiot he had as a client....did years ago and never really came back to pitch in the majors.

dougdirt
06-09-2012, 07:21 PM
What's Boras going to do? He has to sign for slot......and if he continues to hold out....like that other idiot he had as a client....did years ago and never really came back to pitch in the majors.

He would go back to college and enter the draft again in 2013. He doesn't have to sign for slot if he chooses not to.

Gallen5862
06-09-2012, 07:21 PM
Appel can return for his senior year at Stanford.

Tony Cloninger
06-09-2012, 08:36 PM
He would go back to college and enter the draft again in 2013. He doesn't have to sign for slot if he chooses not to.

And he will keep having to go through the same thing......with a team not wanting to go over slot. Why guys bother to get this guy as their agent...now that they have a slot system for the draft, is puzzling.

They can wait to get their bigger payday when they make and then use Boras methods.

dougdirt
06-09-2012, 11:39 PM
And he will keep having to go through the same thing......with a team not wanting to go over slot. Why guys bother to get this guy as their agent...now that they have a slot system for the draft, is puzzling.

They can wait to get their bigger payday when they make and then use Boras methods.

Maybe a team pays him what he wants next year?

As for why guys get him.... he is the best. That is why.

757690
06-09-2012, 11:57 PM
Maybe a team pays him what he wants next year?

As for why guys get him.... he is the best. That is why.

Appel will have even less leverage next year, and could, possibly get hurt. Maybe he gets what he wants next year, but odds are that he won't.

I wouldn't say Boros is the best agent. For some of his clients, he gets the most money. But he has also screwed up many times. Overplaying his hand. He's been dropped by quite a few players. And even if he never screwed up in terms of money, he has often screwed up a player's career in the pursuit of short term money.

Thing about Boros, he cares very deeply about 10% of you if you are his client.

dougdirt
06-10-2012, 12:31 AM
Appel will have even less leverage next year, and could, possibly get hurt. Maybe he gets what he wants next year, but odds are that he won't.

I wouldn't say Boros is the best agent. For some of his clients, he gets the most money. But he has also screwed up many times. Overplaying his hand. He's been dropped by quite a few players. And even if he never screwed up in terms of money, he has often screwed up a player's career in the pursuit of short term money.

Thing about Boros, he cares very deeply about 10% of you if you are his client.

Every agent that has been around for as long as Boras has, has been dropped by plenty of guys.

Boras doesn't make these guys sign their deals. If the players tells him that they want X deal, then he tries his best to get him that deal.

What players career has he screwed up in the pursuit of short term money?

757690
06-10-2012, 01:11 AM
Every agent that has been around for as long as Boras has, has been dropped by plenty of guys.

Boras doesn't make these guys sign their deals. If the players tells him that they want X deal, then he tries his best to get him that deal.

What players career has he screwed up in the pursuit of short term money?

Wily Mo Pena and every other teenager that he had sign an MLB contract as their first contract. That whole idea was Boros'.

dougdirt
06-10-2012, 01:22 AM
Wily Mo Pena and every other teenager that he had sign an MLB contract as their first contract. That whole idea was Boros'.

It is Boras. Bryce Harper seems to be doing just fine off of his MLB contract at age 17. I am sure there are other guys. Even as a teenager on an MLB deal, you get 4 option years. If you don't make it, that is on you.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 01:42 AM
From the NCAA POV...

Why can a baseball player have an agent, return to college after being drafted, but a football player cannot? Maybe there is a simple answer to this, but I am naive here.

JaxRed
06-10-2012, 03:24 AM
I think technically the agents are just "advisors". And players don't declare for the draft. They're just minding their own business, and then from out of nowhere... they get drafted.

Plus Plus
06-10-2012, 08:47 AM
Every agent that has been around for as long as Boras has, has been dropped by plenty of guys.

Boras doesn't make these guys sign their deals. If the players tells him that they want X deal, then he tries his best to get him that deal.

What players career has he screwed up in the pursuit of short term money?

Immediately the Madson situation comes to mind, but I think that your second line is spot on here. Instead of negotiating for his own perception of the best contract, Boras seems to try very hard to get the player's demands met.