PDA

View Full Version : Dusty should go to the pen earlier



Kc61
06-08-2012, 01:19 PM
In the Houston series on Sunday, Bronson Arroyo allowed two runs in the seventh inning. Reds lost by two. Bronson threw 106 pitches. His last pitch was a two run homer to Jason Maxwell that won the game. It was stated on the game thread (in advance) that Bronson should have been out of the game, he was being hit hard.

In the Pirates series, the Reds had a big lead in game two Wednesday. They won 5-4. Cueto had a gem going until the 8th. He gave up several baserunners and was charged with three runs in the 8th inning. Pirates got all their runs in the 8th. Cueto left the game with 118 pitches. Dusty came out to talk to Cueto but left him in to face lefties, with Marshall warm.

Last night, against the Bucs, after the unfortunate Phillips miscue, the Bucs had a man on third, one out, in the 7th inning of a tie game. The Reds needed a strikeout. Leake is not a strikeout pitcher, was left in the game, gave up a well hit sac fly. Leake did not have an excess of pitches, he had a low pitch count of 80 after his seven innings, but he was left in for that key spot.

I think Dusty should be more aggressive in removing these starting pitchers in the 7th and 8th innings. I think the Reds ran into trouble in these three of the last four games, in part, because the pen should have been used earlier.

You can defend each decision individually, but this pattern is hurting, I think, particularly since the bullpen is so good this year.

Comments?

RedFanAlways1966
06-08-2012, 01:24 PM
You can defend each decision individually, but this pattern is hurting, I think, particularly since the bullpen is so good this year.


On the other side of the coin... Dusty must be careful that he does not burnout the BP by overusing them. See Fredi Gonzalez and the 2011 Atlanta Braves in September as a reference.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 01:28 PM
On the other side of the coin... Dusty must be careful that he does not burnout the BP by overusing them. See Fredi Gonzalez and the 2011 Atlanta Braves in September as a reference.

I agree. That's really the issue.

In some of these spots, it is a legitimate consideration. Some are more clear, some less clear.

However, in the Arroyo situation, it was so clear that he was done, even a move to a Simon or a Lecure IMO would have been a better decision than leaving Bronson in. Certainly Simon and Lecure are not overworked.

Also keep in mind that in many of these situations, after the damage is done, the reliever comes in ANYWAY. Dusty spoke to Cueto, left him in. Marshall had been warming. After the damage was done, Marshall was used anyway. No rest for Marshall either way.

But I agree, it is a legitimate consideration. I just think Dusty is erring on the side of the starter too much recently.

Chip R
06-08-2012, 01:31 PM
In the Pirates series, the Reds had a big lead in game two Wednesday. They won 5-4. Cueto had a gem going until the 8th. He gave up several baserunners and was charged with three runs in the 8th inning. Pirates got all their runs in the 8th. Cueto left the game with 118 pitches. Dusty came out to talk to Cueto but left him in to face lefties, with Marshall warm.
Comments?

Cueto had 2 outs and a 5-0 lead. There were 2 runners on (not several) but all he needed was 1 out. He gave up a base hit that scored a run and McCutcheon was up next. Dusty came out once before but wanted to let Cueto work out of the jam. Then Ondrusek gave up the 3 run shot to make it 5-4 and the rest is history. You're just second guessing. You could say Dusty needed to bring in Chapman to get that last out and went to someone else - or stayed with Chapman in the 9th.

RedFanAlways1966's point is valid. Dusty doesn't want to burn out the bullpen.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 01:39 PM
Cueto had 2 outs and a 5-0 lead. There were 2 runners on (not several) but all he needed was 1 out. He gave up a base hit that scored a run and McCutcheon was up next. Dusty came out once before but wanted to let Cueto work out of the jam. Then Ondrusek gave up the 3 run shot to make it 5-4 and the rest is history. You're just second guessing. You could say Dusty needed to bring in Chapman to get that last out and went to someone else - or stayed with Chapman in the 9th.

RedFanAlways1966's point is valid. Dusty doesn't want to burn out the bullpen.

If you followed the game threads you would see I am not second guessing. I have been making this point throughout, frequently in advance of the damage.

In the Cueto situation, Barajas doubled and Alvarez singled off Johnny to lead off the 8th inning. Harrison made out.

Two lefties were then due. Dusty went out to talk to Johnny. He decided to leave him in. He got a strikeout, but then gave up a single. He then departed.

At the end of the day, Johnny threw 118 pitches. And the Reds won. And some of the problem is Logan, who has fallen off lately and allowed the homer.

Dusty pushed Johnny too far there. No reason for it. Two lefties were coming up, Marshall was ready. Johnny had thrown about 110 pitches and allowed two hits already that inning.

The Reds won. It's hard to win an argument when the team wins. But I'm talking about an overall pattern which IMO isn't helping the ballclub.

Chip R
06-08-2012, 01:44 PM
If you followed the game threads you would see I am not second guessing. I have been making this point throughout, frequently in advance of the damage.

In the Cueto situation, Barajas doubled and Alvarez singled off Johnny to lead off the inning. Harrison made out.

Two lefties were then due. Dusty went out to talk to Johnny. He decided to leave him in. He got a strikeout, but then gave up a single. He then departed.

At the end of the day, Johnny threw 118 pitches. And the Reds won. And some of the problem is Logan, who has fallen off lately and allowed the homer.

Dusty pushed Johnny too far there. No reason for it. Two lefties were coming up, Marshall was ready. Johnny had thrown 110 pitches and allowed two hits already that inning.

The Reds won. It's hard to win an argument when the team wins. But I'm talking about an overall pattern which IMO isn't helping the ballclub.

Cueto is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He can't get out a couple of lefties hitting in the low 200s? What if Marshall gave up a HR? You probably would have been shouting that he should have left Cueto in. It was a 5-0 lead with 2 outs. If it were a 2-3 run game, then, sure, bring in the bullpen.

Hoosier Red
06-08-2012, 01:50 PM
If you followed the game threads you would see I am not second guessing. I have been making this point throughout, frequently in advance of the damage.

In the Cueto situation, Barajas doubled and Alvarez singled off Johnny to lead off the 8th inning. Harrison made out.

Two lefties were then due. Dusty went out to talk to Johnny. He decided to leave him in. He got a strikeout, but then gave up a single. He then departed.

At the end of the day, Johnny threw 118 pitches. And the Reds won. And some of the problem is Logan, who has fallen off lately and allowed the homer.

Dusty pushed Johnny too far there. No reason for it. Two lefties were coming up, Marshall was ready. Johnny had thrown about 110 pitches and allowed two hits already that inning.

The Reds won. It's hard to win an argument when the team wins. But I'm talking about an overall pattern which IMO isn't helping the ballclub.

Yes you're usually first guessing but there's a bit of a sampling bias at work here as well. How often have you been nervous about Dusty bringing a pitcher back and the pitcher went 1-2-3.

I'd be interested to see what the Reds Starter's ERA in last inning or partial inning of work is and how that compares to the rest of the league.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 01:54 PM
Cueto is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He can't get out a couple of lefties hitting in the low 200s? What if Marshall gave up a HR? You probably would have been shouting that he should have left Cueto in. It was a 5-0 lead with 2 outs. If it were a 2-3 run game, then, sure, bring in the bullpen.


Arroyo IMO is a 90-95 pitch pitcher. Dusty has several times this year kept him in too long and damage often takes place.

Cueto is a wonderful pitcher. But in the 8th the other night he had allowed a double and single, lefties were due, Marshall was ready, and Cueto was at 110.

Leake is one of my favorites. But with the lead run on third in that spot, I think a strikeout reliever could have avoided the run.

As for what I would have "shouted" if Marshall allowed a homer, I won't grace that with a response. I'd rather discuss the merits of the issue then fend off personal accusations.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 02:01 PM
Yes you're usually first guessing but there's a bit of a sampling bias at work here as well. How often have you been nervous about Dusty bringing a pitcher back and the pitcher went 1-2-3.

I'd be interested to see what the Reds Starter's ERA in last inning or partial inning of work is and how that compares to the rest of the league.

I think it depends on the pitcher. In some cases these judgments are within reason, and sometimes they do work out. And for sure, nobody can predict the future in a game.

And, without agreeing, I can see the arguments for allowing Cueto to remain in. And perhaps there was no appropriate reliever ready when Leake allowed the sac fly last night.

But the overall pattern of sticking with the starter too long is clear to me, I disagree with it, and in some particular cases it is clearly incorrect on Dusty's part. There is no way Bronson Arroyo should have pitched to Maxwell at 105 pitches in that spot the other night. Arroyo is a 90-95 pitch pitcher, has been for years, and he was already being hit hard.

RedlegJake
06-08-2012, 02:10 PM
While I think I agree with you for the most part KC, I think this is the most easily defensible of Dusty's foibles. We've seen how easily a bullpen can get burned out - even now Ondrusek shows signs of overwork and I personally would NOT have gone with Chappy last night.

I'd have given Marshall a 2nd inning since he breezed through the 8th and the game was tied. Chapman always loses 3-4 mph when he pitches back to back and I suspected when he gave up his first run it would be on a consecutive night pitching.

Even protecting the pen as much as he can the Reds primary relievers are already logging quite a bit of work and Dusty evidently has little confidence in LeCure, Simon or Hoover, the least used pitchers. Me - I'd have left Cueto in to get McCutcheon. Tired as he was Johnny would not have given up that homer. THEN I'd have gone to the pen if Mac had gotten a hit.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 02:22 PM
While I think I agree with you for the most part KC, I think this is the most easily defensible of Dusty's foibles. We've seen how easily a bullpen can get burned out - even now Ondrusek shows signs of overwork and I personally would NOT have gone with Chappy last night.

I'd have given Marshall a 2nd inning since he breezed through the 8th and the game was tied. Chapman always loses 3-4 mph when he pitches back to back and I suspected when he gave up his first run it would be on a consecutive night pitching.

Even protecting the pen as much as he can the Reds primary relievers are already logging quite a bit of work and Dusty evidently has little confidence in LeCure, Simon or Hoover, the least used pitchers. Me - I'd have left Cueto in to get McCutcheon. Tired as he was Johnny would not have given up that homer. THEN I'd have gone to the pen if Mac had gotten a hit.

One point you make that is very much worth noting is that Dusty relies very heavily on four relievers, one of whom (Logan) is struggling. Marshall now seems to pitch every night. Chappy has had a lot of back to backs. Arredondo is the other, obviously.

This really isn't ideal. In a seven man bullpen, you can't only have confidence in four guys. That alone leads to overuse of starters and of certain relievers. Simon and Hoover have pitched only 14 times, Lecure 15. The main relievers are at 25 or more.

Hoover, Lecure, and Simon can't all be mop up guys only pitching in one-sided games. It puts too much pressure on the rest of the staff.

Reds should consider which of these guys could spell the others (starters and late inning relievers) occasionally in the later innings. IMO Simon has earned a chance for some later innings work, his numbers are good. Hoover on the road, in bigger ball parks. He's a fly ball pitcher, maybe not at GABP.

REDREAD
06-08-2012, 02:32 PM
And, without agreeing, I can see the arguments for allowing Cueto to remain in. And perhaps there was no appropriate reliever ready when Leake allowed the sac fly last night.
.

The last run against Leake was infield hit, bunt and error to 3rd, and a sac fly.
That's hardly being hit hard.
Sure, Leake is responsible for that run ultimately, but that was excellent small ball by the Pirates. I really don't blame Dusty for staying with Leake there.
Once the guy gets to third with 1 out, there's a good chance the guy is going to score regardless who is pitching. Can't always bring in Marshall and Chapman in every scenerio like that (burns out the pen).
Leake is generally pretty good at coaxing the GB when needed and can get a timely K.. He wasn't a horrible choice to leave in there.
Plus, I think there's a lot to be said for looking at the big picture.
Leake has been struggling.. Overall, he pitched a decent game last night. I'm sure he appreciated Dusty giving him the chance to get out of it.. Hopefully dealing with that helps Leake grow as a pitcher this year.

cbowen2112
06-08-2012, 02:35 PM
This would all be a non-issue if our offense did what it should more than 17% of the time with RISP.

fearofpopvol1
06-08-2012, 03:05 PM
Arroyo is the one guy Dusty should not be afraid to go to the pen early with. It obviously depends on the situation, but he has many starts where he's been great through 5 and sometimes 6, but when he gets into trouble in the 6th or 7th inning, it's usually runs on the board. Dusty should rethink things when Arroyo is pitching late into games.

vic715
06-08-2012, 04:22 PM
While I think I agree with you for the most part KC, I think this is the most easily defensible of Dusty's foibles. We've seen how easily a bullpen can get burned out - even now Ondrusek shows signs of overwork and I personally would NOT have gone with Chappy last night.

I'd have given Marshall a 2nd inning since he breezed through the 8th and the game was tied. Chapman always loses 3-4 mph when he pitches back to back and I suspected when he gave up his first run it would be on a consecutive night pitching.

Even protecting the pen as much as he can the Reds primary relievers are already logging quite a bit of work and Dusty evidently has little confidence in LeCure, Simon or Hoover, the least used pitchers. Me - I'd have left Cueto in to get McCutcheon. Tired as he was Johnny would not have given up that homer. THEN I'd have gone to the pen if Mac had gotten a hit.
Not only does he lose 3-4 miles off the fastball it doesn't move and it flattens out and even a bad hitter can time it and nail it.Last night was the perfect example,neither one of those hitters who got the doubles was hitting 200.

Hoosier Red
06-08-2012, 04:27 PM
I think it depends on the pitcher. In some cases these judgments are within reason, and sometimes they do work out. And for sure, nobody can predict the future in a game.

And, without agreeing, I can see the arguments for allowing Cueto to remain in. And perhaps there was no appropriate reliever ready when Leake allowed the sac fly last night.

But the overall pattern of sticking with the starter too long is clear to me, I disagree with it, and in some particular cases it is clearly incorrect on Dusty's part. There is no way Bronson Arroyo should have pitched to Maxwell at 105 pitches in that spot the other night. Arroyo is a 90-95 pitch pitcher, has been for years, and he was already being hit hard.

FWIW I tend to agree with you, Dusty's usually about 2-3 batters after I feel comfortable taking a guy out.
But I'd be interested in seeing whether the results actually bear that out.

WVRedsFan
06-09-2012, 12:40 AM
This would all be a non-issue if our offense did what it should more than 17% of the time with RISP.Totally agree on that point, but Reds pitchers as a whole get iffy as they near 100 pitches. If we scored buckets of runs, then you go the extra mile with the starter, but a four or five run lead is never safe at home, in GABP, or most places. You can choose to win today or hope you're there in the end. With an overload of arms, maybe they should bring in Simon more. And when Nick and Billy come back...well, you catch my drift.