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View Full Version : I'm concerned about Rolen's eventual return



kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 04:17 PM
From Fay's blog/tweets, it seems (reading between the lines) as if we could expect a rehab stint to begin in the next week or so for Rolen. I love Rolen as a player, but I fear his return to the starting lineup could sink this club.

Todd Frazier (while currently not qualifed) would rank 6th in the majors for 3B OPS right now. Second only to David Wright in SLG. Acceptable fielder based on my eyes, with hopefully room to improve. It's gotta be his job to lose now, no?

*I am aware we are dealing with a small sample size with Frazier, but his numbers and his passing the eyeball test are what leads me to this decision of making 3B his to lose*

But I (who almost always gives the FO/Dusty the benefit of the doubt in letting moves play out) can see what is coming a mile away. The reinsertion of Rolen into the everyday lineup.

Does anyone on RZ want Rolen back in the lineup "everyday"? I would be suprised if so.

I hope I am wrong on this and wiser heads prevail.

cincrazy
06-10-2012, 04:28 PM
From Fay's blog/tweets, it seems (reading between the lines) as if we could expect a rehab stint to begin in the next week or so for Rolen. I love Rolen as a player, but I fear his return to the starting lineup could sink this club.

Todd Frazier (while currently not qualifed) would rank 6th in the majors for 3B OPS right now. Second only to David Wright in SLG. Acceptable fielder based on my eyes, with hopefully room to improve. It's gotta be his job to lose now, no?

*I am aware we are dealing with a small sample size with Frazier, but his numbers and his passing the eyeball test are what leads me to this decision of making 3B his to lose*

But I (who almost always gives the FO/Dusty the benefit of the doubt in letting moves play out) can see what is coming a mile away. The reinsertion of Rolen into the everyday lineup.

Does anyone on RZ want Rolen back in the lineup "everyday"? I would be suprised if so.

I hope I am wrong on this and wiser heads prevail.

I shared this fear with my brother yesterday. I have little doubt Rolen will play when he comes back. Maybe he gets a few days off a week. But to me it should be the other way around. Frazier should play the majority, Rolen should pinch hit and spot start. Frazier is one of the few players not performing below expectations, and he needs to stay in the lineup.

757690
06-10-2012, 04:30 PM
I doubt Rolen returns as the everyday 3B. I see a situation like catching, a 60-40 split, probably with Frazier getting the 60, since he's healthy.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 04:37 PM
I doubt Rolen returns as the everyday 3B. I see a situation like catching, a 60-40 split, probably with Frazier getting the 60, since he's healthy.

I could go 75-25 or so, but 60-40 is still too much Rolen for me. I also failed to mention in my initial post that Fay has also implied Rolen will get his job back...but then again, it is Fay we are talking about.

757690
06-10-2012, 04:48 PM
Also, we are assuming that Rolen will be just as bad he was at the beginning of the season. The whole point of putting him on the DL was to improve his shoulder. Maybe it didn't work, but no need to assume that it didn't.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 04:54 PM
Also, we are assuming that Rolen will be just as bad he was at the beginning of the season. The whole point of putting him on the DL was to improve his shoulder. Maybe it didn't work, but no need to assume that it didn't.

Frazier 2012 > Rolen 2011 and 2012

I'm not assuming that, and that is how I came to my decision.

vic715
06-10-2012, 05:02 PM
If this team sinks it won't be because Rolens on the field.The bullpen and the bench have my biggest concerns right now.My concern is the pen wearing down and all the automatic outs on the bench.

defender
06-10-2012, 05:02 PM
Right now it seems Frazier is the 2nd best hitter on the team, so I would be concerned if Rolen took his spot in the lineup. I am not concerned about two or three weeks from now when/if Rolen is ready to play.

757690
06-10-2012, 05:05 PM
Frazier 2012 > Rolen 2011 and 2012

I'm not assuming that, and that is how I came to my decision.

I'm not sold on Frazier, not even close. Works hard, but lots of warts.

Anyway, when I mean Rolen's shoulder gets better, I mean better than 2011-12. I also don't see Rolen playing regularly for too long if it's not.

hebroncougar
06-10-2012, 06:56 PM
I'm not sold on Frazier, not even close. Works hard, but lots of warts.

Anyway, when I mean Rolen's shoulder gets better, I mean better than 2011-12. I also don't see Rolen playing regularly for too long if it's not.

I'm sold on Frazier at this point a whole lot more than the Rolen we've seen for the past season+. As noted above, he's hit pretty darn well. I wish Dusty would stick him in the clean up spot for a couple weeks and let it go.

traderumor
06-10-2012, 07:13 PM
Here is a good example of the myth that Dusty will play the lesser "vet" player over the young guy to a fault, even after it makes sense to do so. I'd say we're a better team with Rolen/Frazier than Frazier/Cairo/Valdez, no? Obviously, I'm making assumptions that Rolen will perform better than the beginning of the season just as much as others are assuming he will stink it up at the plate. His D sure isn't being matched by Frazier, who can get to balls, but has an erratic arm. Rolen was still giving above average D, and more importantly, reliable D.

The answer doesn't always have to be "either/or," maybe Dusty will figure out a good balance that is performance based, well, like he has since being manager here (sends several to bball-ref.com to find the "vets" Dusty played over the young up and comer, what about Patterson, Cabrera, Taveras, Gomes, etc.).

jhu1321
06-10-2012, 07:13 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see Frazier in LF sometimes when Rolen comes back. Let's be honest though, Rolens return will be short lived. If surgery (again) didn't fix the shoulder, no way a DL stint lasts.

traderumor
06-10-2012, 07:14 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see Frazier in LF sometimes when Rolen comes back. Let's be honest though, Rolens return will be short lived. If surgery (again) didn't fix the shoulder, no way a DL stint lasts.So, you have access to his medical diagnosis and are in sports medicine?

PuffyPig
06-10-2012, 07:20 PM
I'm hoping the return of Rolen sends Cairo packing.

kaldaniels
06-10-2012, 07:20 PM
Here is a good example of the myth that Dusty will play the lesser "vet" player over the young guy to a fault, even after it makes sense to do so. I'd say we're a better team with Rolen/Frazier than Frazier/Cairo/Valdez, no? Obviously, I'm making assumptions that Rolen will perform better than the beginning of the season just as much as others are assuming he will stink it up at the plate. His D sure isn't being matched by Frazier, who can get to balls, but has an erratic arm. Rolen was still giving above average D, and more importantly, reliable D.

The answer doesn't always have to be "either/or," maybe Dusty will figure out a good balance that is performance based, well, like he has since being manager here (sends several to bball-ref.com to find the "vets" Dusty played over the young up and comer, what about Patterson, Cabrera, Taveras, Gomes, etc.).

So to be clear, if you are in charge when Rolen comes back, what do you do? Would you expect him to be better than Rolen 2011?

Crumbley
06-10-2012, 07:34 PM
So, you have access to his medical diagnosis and are in sports medicine?
Good thing that simple pattern recognition requires neither.

mth123
06-10-2012, 08:27 PM
So to be clear, if you are in charge when Rolen comes back, what do you do? Would you expect him to be better than Rolen 2011?

My shot would be to put Rolen in the line-up against LHP at 3B with Frazier in LF. Ludwick needs to be shipped off and the team needs to add a LH Bat to the mix for the OF.

Say Ludwick gets dealt and the Reds play 6 games per week with 4 RH Starters and 2 LH starters for the opposition.

Against the Lefty starters:

Rolen plays 3B, Frazier plays LF and Stubbs plays CF. Heisey gets a start in RF with Bruce sitting one of the 2 games.

Against the RH starters

The acquisition plays LF 4 Days
Frazier plays 3B 2 days, Rolen plays 3B 2 days.
Stubbs plays CF 2 days and Heisey plays CF 2 days this could change with who is hitting well.

In a 6 game week, Bruce gets 5 starts, Frazier, Rolen, Stubbs and the acquisituon get 4 starts and Heisey gets 3 starts. If Rolen starts hurting a little, Heisey can get another game or two with Frazier playing more at 3B.

If the Reds could find that LH platoon OF, it would be easy to ship Ludwick away and get everybody lots of PT. Frazier is a pretty good OF and the Reds don't lose much in LF with him instead of Heisey. The defense is improved immensely with Rolen playing 3B 4 days per week in place of Frazier.

Roy Tucker
06-10-2012, 09:22 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see Frazier in LF sometimes when Rolen comes back. Let's be honest though, Rolens return will be short lived. If surgery (again) didn't fix the shoulder, no way a DL stint lasts.

I'd sure as heck like to see Rolen play at his pre-2011 level so I'm fervently hoping he comes back and performs well.

But I'm also not a total dummy and I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the DL again. I don't want it to happen, but from all appearances, his shoulder just won't let him play how he used to. Rolen is a gamer and for him to go on the DL, that shoulder must be killing him.

I'd hope Dusty talks to Scott and gets his true input. Frazier has been playing well so I'd like him to stay in there as long as he's hot. If he starts to cool down, start blending in Rolen.

RedsManRick
06-10-2012, 10:01 PM
I think Ludwick is the one who is going to lose PA. Frazier just hit another bomb.

Phhhl
06-10-2012, 10:20 PM
Ludwick is a long way from being "shipped off" on a team that has no bench whatsoever. Right now he is nothing but a bad ball hitter who can crush a get ahead fastball, but that is what pinch hitters are for. I do agree that he would be the one who will lose playing time. It could be a gold mine to have Frazier in there at third or left almost every day, Heisey alternating at each outfield position 5-6 times a week, edging a little time away from Stubbs and Rolen playing third base 3-4 times a week and available as a late inning defensive replacement otherwise. I like having Scott in the game defensively. He is still pretty damn good.

Now, if Dusty would only treat it that way.

CesarGeronimo
06-11-2012, 07:24 AM
From Fay's blog/tweets, it seems (reading between the lines) as if we could expect a rehab stint to begin in the next week or so for Rolen. I love Rolen as a player, but I fear his return to the starting lineup could sink this club.

Todd Frazier (while currently not qualifed) would rank 6th in the majors for 3B OPS right now. Second only to David Wright in SLG. Acceptable fielder based on my eyes, with hopefully room to improve. It's gotta be his job to lose now, no?

*I am aware we are dealing with a small sample size with Frazier, but his numbers and his passing the eyeball test are what leads me to this decision of making 3B his to lose*

But I (who almost always gives the FO/Dusty the benefit of the doubt in letting moves play out) can see what is coming a mile away. The reinsertion of Rolen into the everyday lineup.

Does anyone on RZ want Rolen back in the lineup "everyday"? I would be suprised if so.

I hope I am wrong on this and wiser heads prevail.

I don't want Rolen back in the lineup everyday, but I think he will be. The Reds need Frazier's offense. He has made a huge difference. Didn't the Reds offense get rolling almost as soon as Rolen left the lineup?

WildcatFan
06-11-2012, 09:55 AM
I agree with those who are putting him in left field on the days he's not at third. I think Dusty realizes his value? Maybe? He continues to bat Ludwick ahead of him though, so...

Also, is it about time to try Todd in the leadoff spot? If nothing else, you're starting the games with Sinatra.

If I had My Way (sorry), I'd start Rolen off slowly, using him as a defensive replacement in the late innings as part of a double switch that sends Frazier to left. That way you don't lose Frazier's bat, but you're giving Rolen some chances to prove himself without straining him early.

traderumor
06-11-2012, 02:19 PM
So to be clear, if you are in charge when Rolen comes back, what do you do? Would you expect him to be better than Rolen 2011?I am thinking similar to others, Frazier in LF as an option to keep his bat in the lineup. Rolen will have to hit himself into more PT, coming back, maybe a couple of starts a week. If he does that and Frazier is still performing, then you get his ABs in LF with Rolen splitting time at 3b. Rolen's glove earns him at least the looksee for PT duty when he comes back.

mdccclxix
06-11-2012, 02:21 PM
I thought Ludwick looked equally bad to Rolen early on. Both looked like they'd never seen a fastball over 90 mph. We've seen Ludwick come around, I expect Rolen is likely better than a .175 hitter, with a possible upside of .280 going forward. We'll see, I'll give him 4 weeks to get right.