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View Full Version : Baker's reliance on 4 relievers



lollipopcurve
06-12-2012, 09:22 PM
Here's a quick look at how much NL managers have relied on their top 4 relievers (by appearances) vs. the rest of their bullpens, thru Sunday:

% of relief innings pitched by top 4 relievers, in reverse order:

Pirates 45% (87.2/184.2)
Phillies 48% (82.3/170.3)
Braves 50% (91/182)
Giants 51% (92.1/179)
Padres 52% (92/178)
Mets 53% (92/173)
Rockies 54% (113/209.1)
Nats 55% (97/186.1)
Cubs 57% (101/177)
Marlins 58% (93/161)
Dbacks 60% (100/166)
Reds 63% (111/175.1)

Factor in that one of the Reds top 4 is their closer, and you have an even more extreme pattern.

HokieRed
06-12-2012, 09:43 PM
Seems the pattern has been the same in past years as well. I've no stats for that, but it's how I remember it.

hebroncougar
06-12-2012, 09:46 PM
Here's a quick look at how much NL managers have relied on their top 4 relievers (by appearances) vs. the rest of their bullpens, thru Sunday:

% of relief innings pitched by top 4 relievers, in reverse order:

Pirates 45% (87.2/184.2)
Phillies 48% (82.3/170.3)
Braves 50% (91/182)
Giants 51% (92.1/179)
Padres 52% (92/178)
Mets 53% (92/173)
Rockies 54% (113/209.1)
Nats 55% (97/186.1)
Cubs 57% (101/177)
Marlins 58% (93/161)
Dbacks 60% (100/166)
Reds 63% (111/175.1)

Factor in that one of the Reds top 4 is their closer, and you have an even more extreme pattern.

Sorry, I've got no problem with it. Reds have the best BP ERA in the league. Hard to argue with that. Now, batting line ups are a different story.

edabbs44
06-12-2012, 09:48 PM
What difference does it make?

Tom Servo
06-12-2012, 09:54 PM
What difference does it make?
Pitcher fatigue.

klw
06-12-2012, 09:56 PM
I don't think the percentage is the issue as much as the # of innings they have thrown which is 2nd most and not as out of whack as the %. Also would be curious to see how the # of outings plays out. The percentage could be indicative of the rest of the pen being weak but that does not seem to be the case.

edabbs44
06-12-2012, 10:00 PM
Pitcher fatigue.

Not if you are looking at percentage of bullpen innings. The Rockies look to be in a better spot than the Reds, until you look at total innings.

First place, best bullpen around and this is where the complaints lie? Pretty ridiculous.

Kc61
06-12-2012, 10:02 PM
Dusty should use Simon, Lecure and Hoover a bit more and the "big 4" a bit less. I think he will. He is aware of relief pitcher overuse, he gives them planned days of rest. He is not oblivious to this.

Wear and tear on the pen may now, for the first time, be showing a bit. I think Dusty will respond and ease off these four guys a bit.

PuffyPig
06-12-2012, 10:22 PM
Here's a quick look at how much NL managers have relied on their top 4 relievers (by appearances) vs. the rest of their bullpens, thru Sunday:

% of relief innings pitched by top 4 relievers, in reverse order:

Pirates 45% (87.2/184.2)
Phillies 48% (82.3/170.3)
Braves 50% (91/182)
Giants 51% (92.1/179)
Padres 52% (92/178)
Mets 53% (92/173)
Rockies 54% (113/209.1)
Nats 55% (97/186.1)
Cubs 57% (101/177)
Marlins 58% (93/161)
Dbacks 60% (100/166)
Reds 63% (111/175.1)

Factor in that one of the Reds top 4 is their closer, and you have an even more extreme pattern.

Are the missing teams higher than us, I assume.

Such as the Cards and the Brewers, our competition in the Central.

mbgrayson
06-12-2012, 10:52 PM
Sorry, I've got no problem with it. Reds have the best BP ERA in the league. Hard to argue with that. Now, batting line ups are a different story.

I do think Dusty needs to find a way to spread the usage out. He is stuck in the 'everyone has a role' thing. While that has some value, he simply is overusing Arredondo, Ondrusek, Marshall, and Chapman, and their effectiveness will not continue at this high level if he doesn't rest them more. We are lucky that Simon, Hoover, and LeCure are good enough to handle situations other than 'the Reds are way ahead or behind'.

FWIW, where will Bray fit in when he comes back, hopefully soon?

westofyou
06-12-2012, 10:59 PM
It happens



INNINGS PITCHED IP G RSAA GS
1 Scott Sullivan 113.2 79 19 0
2 Danny Graves 111 75 18 0
3 Scott Williamson 93.1 62 22 0
4 Dennys Reyes 61.2 65 5 1
5 Gabe White 61 50 1 0
6 Stan Belinda 42.2 29 -4 0
7 Rick Greene 5.2 1 0 0
8 B.J. Ryan 2 1 0 0
9 John Hudek 1 2 -2 0

757690
06-12-2012, 11:18 PM
If it was two relievers, I'd be worried, but this just tells me the the Reds are one of the few teams that have four quality relievers that it can use in high leverage situations.

Kc61
06-12-2012, 11:37 PM
I do think Dusty needs to find a way to spread the usage out. He is stuck in the 'everyone has a role' thing. While that has some value, he simply is overusing Arredondo, Ondrusek, Marshall, and Chapman, and their effectiveness will not continue at this high level if he doesn't rest them more. We are lucky that Simon, Hoover, and LeCure are good enough to handle situations other than 'the Reds are way ahead or behind'.

FWIW, where will Bray fit in when he comes back, hopefully soon?

When Bray comes back Hoover likely goes down. Bray will come in to face lefties, mostly. Bray should allow Marshall more rest and Marshall should not have to pitch in LOOGY spots as much.

lollipopcurve
06-13-2012, 06:44 AM
Are the missing teams higher than us, I assume.

Such as the Cards and the Brewers, our competition in the Central.

Haven't got around to them yet.

edabbs44
06-13-2012, 07:08 AM
Haven't got around to them yet.

I'm showing the Reds top 4 at 106 1/3 inning, but granted I am doing this on my phone on the way to work.

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 07:16 AM
Sam Lecure has pitched twice since May 26th.
JJ Hoover has pitched twice since May 28th.
Alfredo Simon has pitched twice since May 28th.
Jose Arredondo has pitched 5 times since May 28th.
Logan Ondrusek has pitched 6 times since May 28th.
Sean Marshall has pitched 8 times since May 28th.

lollipopcurve
06-13-2012, 07:21 AM
I'm showing the Reds top 4 at 106 1/3 inning, but granted I am doing this on my phone on the way to work.

You are correct. My bad. Here's the update, with all teams included:

Pirates 45% (87.2/184.2)
Phillies 48% (82.3/170.3)
Braves 50% (91/182)
Giants 51% (92.1/179)
Padres 52% (92/178)
Mets 53% (92/173)
Astros 53% (97.2/183.2)
Rockies 54% (113/209.1)
Nats 55% (97/186.1)
Brewers 56% (87.1/168.2)
Cubs 57% (101/177)
Marlins 58% (93/161)
Cards 59% (104.1/178)
Dbacks 60% (100/166)
Dodgers 60% (104.1/174)
Reds 62% (106.1/170.2)

hebroncougar
06-13-2012, 07:31 AM
None of these guys are on pace to break 75 games. I don't think it's overusage. Only Chapman is on pace to break 75 innings (which is what most people want), and only Chapman and Arrendondo are averaging more than an inning per appearance (Arren. barely).

edabbs44
06-13-2012, 07:36 AM
Thx for the update, someone has to be at the top and they are not a huge outlier.

dfs
06-13-2012, 09:46 AM
I believe Jerry Narron used to do exactly this, meaning ride the hot hands till they got hurt and then whine about not having talent on the roster.

I would be concerned except I see a special case here. If Dusty burns one of these guys and they end up lame in August or September, well Nick Masset and Bill Bray will be coming back sooner or later and the bullpen just rights itself.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 09:50 AM
You are correct. My bad. Here's the update, with all teams included:

Pirates 45% (87.2/184.2)
Phillies 48% (82.3/170.3)
Braves 50% (91/182)
Giants 51% (92.1/179)
Padres 52% (92/178)
Mets 53% (92/173)
Astros 53% (97.2/183.2)
Rockies 54% (113/209.1)
Nats 55% (97/186.1)
Brewers 56% (87.1/168.2)
Cubs 57% (101/177)
Marlins 58% (93/161)
Cards 59% (104.1/178)
Dbacks 60% (100/166)
Dodgers 60% (104.1/174)
Reds 62% (106.1/170.2)

1990? Myers (86.67), Dibble (98), Charlton (50.67), Layana (80)= 315.33/472.67 = 67%

Nasty Boys talked about all the time as a tremendous bullpen. The point here seems to be a red flag. Not sure comparing it to other teams in the same year is the best way to look at this, but rather comparing it to top bullpens from year to year.

fisch11
06-13-2012, 10:05 AM
Last year's Braves team might be something to look up and use for comparison sake. Granted everything went wrong for them down the stretch, but my memory or perception I recall is that Atlanta leaned heavily on their big guns all year. Yet, they were 1 Kimbrel save from overuse not being talked about.

lollipopcurve
06-13-2012, 10:11 AM
For me, the proof will be not so much in the list I have provided, but in how well Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo and Ondrusek are throwing. Right now, I'm most concerned about Ondrusek -- who has fallen off pretty dramatically (and who had durability issues last year). And Chapman is starting to wobble a little while throwing only 1 pitch.

westofyou
06-13-2012, 10:18 AM
1990? Myers (86.67), Dibble (98), Charlton (50.67), Layana (80)= 315.33/472.67 = 67%

Nasty Boys talked about all the time as a tremendous bullpen. The point here seems to be a red flag. Not sure comparing it to other teams in the same year is the best way to look at this, but rather comparing it to top bullpens from year to year.

1999 65% by the big three (1975 team did the same with 3 total relievers) Bray is almost back and That should help

Relievers are odd animals, so they deserve a hard look, but we also need to factor in the times that they get up and don't come in to get a full picture

As anyone who has ever read Pennant Race knows guys sit out there and say... I got nothing, I hope the old man don't call on me tonight.

A good staff (and that's the BP coach, the BP catcher and pitching coach who make that call and report to Dusty) will notice who is gassed, hopefully it's a good observation and decision

CySeymour
06-13-2012, 10:20 AM
Sam Lecure has pitched twice since May 26th.
JJ Hoover has pitched twice since May 28th.
Alfredo Simon has pitched twice since May 28th.
Jose Arredondo has pitched 5 times since May 28th.
Logan Ondrusek has pitched 6 times since May 28th.
Sean Marshall has pitched 8 times since May 28th.

What strikes me is that I don't see how Ondrusek is that much of a better pitcher then Lecure to warrant that much of a difference in use. Am I wrong?

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 10:26 AM
What strikes me is that I don't see how Ondrusek is that much of a better pitcher then Lecure to warrant that much of a difference in use. Am I wrong?

The three guys he hasn't used in two weeks have a combined 2.63 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. I don't see any reason that any one of them aside from Chapman, should be used any more frequently than the others.

CySeymour
06-13-2012, 10:27 AM
The three guys he hasn't used in two weeks have a combined 2.63 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. I don't see any reason that any one of them aside from Chapman, should be used any more frequently than the others.

Good enough for me!

traderumor
06-13-2012, 10:48 AM
The three guys he hasn't used in two weeks have a combined 2.63 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. I don't see any reason that any one of them aside from Chapman, should be used any more frequently than the others.Lecure came in and held the Tigers just this Friday, 6/8. Hoover's last stint was awful in Houston, has been a little lucky from what I've seen, makes me nervous when he pitches, ball is up way, way too much. Simon is the mop up guy who has done well in his role, but has a track record that says he is probably in the right place in this pen. I imagine if you started putting these guys in situations where the other guys are being used that they would be exposed. And ERA for relievers to make this case? Really?

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 11:06 AM
Lecure came in and held the Tigers just this Friday, 6/8. Hoover's last stint was awful in Houston, has been a little lucky from what I've seen, makes me nervous when he pitches, ball is up way, way too much. Simon is the mop up guy who has done well in his role, but has a track record that says he is probably in the right place in this pen. I imagine if you started putting these guys in situations where the other guys are being used that they would be exposed. And ERA for relievers to make this case? Really?

Make excuses all you want. Simon, Hoover and LeCure have been very good at preventing runs and getting outs this season. None of them are pitching with anything resembling frequency. They have as many combined appearances in the last two weeks as Ondrusek and two less than Marshall.

RANDY IN INDY
06-13-2012, 11:08 AM
It would be interesting to see the board crash when Dusty puts one of those guys in a high leverage situation and they fail.

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 11:13 AM
It would be interesting to see the board crash when Dusty puts one of those guys in a high leverage situation and they fail.

Well, that depends now doesn't it? How was the rest of the bullpen looking at the time? Why couldn't Baker have gone to any of those guys in last night for the 9th inning with a 6 run lead? Why couldn't he have gone to any of them in the Tigers game with a 3 run lead in the 8th inning?

And really, what makes that any different than how the board reacts when Chapman, Arredondo, Ondrusek or Marshall fail? I imagine it is exactly the same. We wouldn't like it. Some would point out that so and so did this wrong or that wrong.

Kc61
06-13-2012, 11:20 AM
I think folks should give Dusty a chance on this one. It's only recently that the bullpen is showing some wear and tear. I do believe that in the next week we'll see more Simon, Hoover, and Lecure.

Tonight, of course, the whole pen has two days rest so maybe it will be the usual suspects. (Hopefully Latos gets them to the late innings, another concern.) But Dusty does care about his bullpen arms and I think that some shift in usage is coming.

Ondrusek has been poor of late. His ERA over the last 30 days is 8.10, with 14 hits in 10 innings, 3 homers, a .341 BAA. a 2.00 WHIP. He certainly should be getting more rest and lower pressure outings for awhile. Maybe it will happen.

RANDY IN INDY
06-13-2012, 11:21 AM
Ohh, I just think it would be a much larger reaction. Managers are going to put their trust in certain players in those high leverage situations. It's nothing new or earth shattering.

edabbs44
06-13-2012, 11:33 AM
Make excuses all you want. Simon, Hoover and LeCure have been very good at preventing runs and getting outs this season. None of them are pitching with anything resembling frequency. They have as many combined appearances in the last two weeks as Ondrusek and two less than Marshall.

Maybe their success is partially attributable to their usage.

edabbs44
06-13-2012, 11:35 AM
For me, the proof will be not so much in the list I have provided, but in how well Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo and Ondrusek are throwing. Right now, I'm most concerned about Ondrusek -- who has fallen off pretty dramatically (and who had durability issues last year). And Chapman is starting to wobble a little while throwing only 1 pitch.

Ondrusek has also experienced wild babip swings which may explain some of his issues.

Patrick Bateman
06-13-2012, 11:39 AM
My only huge complaint is on the usage of Ondrusek. I don't think he's any better than the rest of the lot. Don't like him in key situations except strictly as a ROOGY.

I like the heavy usage of Chapman and Marshall, even Arredondo to an extent. The rest should be used as match-ups dictate.

lollipopcurve
06-13-2012, 11:53 AM
Ondrusek has also experienced wild babip swings which may explain some of his issues.

Big dropoff in stuff and command since the start of the season. He was close to unhittable early.

lollipopcurve
06-13-2012, 11:57 AM
I think folks should give Dusty a chance on this one. It's only recently that the bullpen is showing some wear and tear. I do believe that in the next week we'll see more Simon, Hoover, and Lecure.

I'm not foaming at the bit on this, just raising a red flag. More use of the "little 3" is needed, IMO. Most immediately, I would like to see Ondrusek scaled back in favor of any of the lesser-used righties. Over time, I would like to see some closer by committee because I don't think Chapman should be used as Cordero was under Baker.

Hoosier Red
06-13-2012, 12:07 PM
If I had to guess why the Reds are so "extreme" on the usage of the top four relievers because most other teams have 2 or 3 relievers that are on a plane above the others in terms of usage and anyone below that pack is not used more than any others . My guess(and if this is wrong, please let me know) the Reds are in the middle of the pack when it comes to % usage of the top 2 relievers, or % usage of the top 3 relievers.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 12:09 PM
Make excuses all you want. Simon, Hoover and LeCure have been very good at preventing runs and getting outs this season. None of them are pitching with anything resembling frequency. They have as many combined appearances in the last two weeks as Ondrusek and two less than Marshall.They are not excuses, they are plausible explanations. Man, been around here forever and the minute a guy performs there is the inevitable cry for his insertion into a more significant role. Then, out of necessity, the person gets a trial, falls flat on his face, and then its "what idiots the Reds are." This is how I categorize your pleadings.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 12:11 PM
It would be interesting to see the board crash when Dusty puts one of those guys in a high leverage situation and they fail.Of course it would, then most just hope that no one checks out their history, but then if you do, you'll be called a stalker or picking on them.

bellhead
06-13-2012, 12:14 PM
Bray and Masset should be back with the club within one month...This should give Dusty some options.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 12:20 PM
Well, that depends now doesn't it? How was the rest of the bullpen looking at the time? Why couldn't Baker have gone to any of those guys in last night for the 9th inning with a 6 run lead? Why couldn't he have gone to any of them in the Tigers game with a 3 run lead in the 8th inning?

And really, what makes that any different than how the board reacts when Chapman, Arredondo, Ondrusek or Marshall fail? I imagine it is exactly the same. We wouldn't like it. Some would point out that so and so did this wrong or that wrong.Someone mentioned earlier that there is an issue with flu on the team, implied it included the pitching staff. I could also consider that while the stat is meaningless, completing a game is important to a starter and can do something for the mental aspect of the game. Encouraging a staff person is a good management tool. I know, excuses.

Lots of options and reasons that managers make the moves they do. Sometimes its just a wrong decision, but contrary to those who think they know all the factors going into decisions, they know just a fraction of what the manager does to make that same decision.

bellhead
06-13-2012, 12:22 PM
Also anybody thought about going to an 8 man pen and having Leake as the last player available for pitch hitting.

dougdirt
06-13-2012, 11:14 PM
Since May 28th:

Sean Marshall 9 appearances
JJ Hoover, Alfredo Simon and Sam LeCure 2 appearances each.

kaldaniels
06-13-2012, 11:46 PM
Since May 28th:

Sean Marshall 9 appearances
JJ Hoover, Alfredo Simon and Sam LeCure 2 appearances each.

Marshall 7.1 IP
Simon 5 IP (3 appearances)
Hoover 3.2 IP
LeCure 4.0 IP

And that's with your cherry-picked endpoints. Big deal. I'm sure these guys throw on the side as required.

mth123
06-14-2012, 12:00 AM
My take is that Managers tend to ride their late inning relievers in close, low scoring games. That's what the Reds have been faced with a lot this year. Want to even out the usage of the pen? Go get a bat. With Bray and then Masset coming back, Hoover might be a good way to go get one.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 12:00 AM
Marshall 7.1 IP
Simon 5 IP (3 appearances)
Hoover 3.2 IP
LeCure 4.0 IP

And that's with your cherry-picked endpoints. Big deal. I'm sure these guys throw on the side as required.

You don't think it is a problem that Ondrusek has as many appearances as three of our other relievers combined in the last two weeks? Or that Marshall has more than those same three relievers combined? Or that Chapman has as many as those same three relievers combined?

Dusty doesn't seem to have any problems using 'the big 4', but he simply isn't going to the other guys, who have all performed incredibly well this year.

kaldaniels
06-14-2012, 12:08 AM
You don't think it is a problem that Ondrusek has as many appearances as three of our other relievers combined in the last two weeks? Or that Marshall has more than those same three relievers combined? Or that Chapman has as many as those same three relievers combined?

Dusty doesn't seem to have any problems using 'the big 4', but he simply isn't going to the other guys, who have all performed incredibly well this year.

I'm surprised at your use of arbitary endpoints. Looking at the 1/3 of the season in the books, I'd like our top-4 to have a few less appearances, but I'm not too worried right now. The one guy i would really be careful with is Logan for here on out. So while I will grant you that, I don't trust the second tier guys as much as you seem to. Too small of a sample size for me if we are just looking at 2012.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2012, 10:37 AM
I have no problem with Marshall's usage.

Using Hoover in the same spots that Marshall has been pitching in would not improve the team.

CySeymour
06-14-2012, 11:15 AM
On the flip side, if they pitched Hoover and Simon more and they started getting hit, some would argue Dusty was exposing them too much.

traderumor
06-14-2012, 11:15 AM
Since May 28th:

Sean Marshall 9 appearances
JJ Hoover, Alfredo Simon and Sam LeCure 2 appearances each.Wouldn't batters faced, or even IP be more relevant?

But, really, Dusty uses his above average relievers more than his average relievers. Alert the media. Sounds like a story.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 11:40 AM
Wouldn't batters faced, or even IP be more relevant?

But, really, Dusty uses his above average relievers more than his average relievers. Alert the media. Sounds like a story.

So it is ok to use 'the better' relievers 3 and 4 times as often as the other ones?

And again, you keep ignoring the fact that the three guys who aren't getting used have a combined 2.62 ERA. This is not like he isn't using a bunch of guys with ERA's in the 5.00 range. He isn't using guys who have performed as well as you could possibly ask of them.

Batters faced and IP isn't really more relevant in this case.

For being such a players manager, you don't think the guys not getting work notice that their manager has no faith in them despite them performing?

Aside from that, when you do eventually decide to go to these guys, how can you expect them to perform when they have pitched twice in the last two weeks each. There is no way they are all going to pitch on the same day, so even then, the next guy is going to be rusty as well probably. It is just base management to use one reliever 4.5 times more in a two week stretch that three entirely different guys also in your bullpen when they are all performing.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 11:41 AM
On the flip side, if they pitched Hoover and Simon more and they started getting hit, some would argue Dusty was exposing them too much.

Well sure, if he pitched them every day. But if he used them 3 times a week? Doubtful.

lollipopcurve
06-14-2012, 11:45 AM
But, really, Dusty uses his above average relievers more than his average relievers. Alert the media. Sounds like a story.

Does it more than any other manager in the NL so far. You don't think the thread is interesting, stay out of it.

bucksfan2
06-14-2012, 11:52 AM
I have no problem with Marshall's usage.

Using Hoover in the same spots that Marshall has been pitching in would not improve the team.

In the past three years in Chicago Marshall has averaged 78 innings. This year he is on pace for less than that. I don't find his usage an issue. Complaining about using the high leverage arms to me is just people who don't like Dusty finding something to complain about.

lollipopcurve
06-14-2012, 11:59 AM
Complaining about using the high leverage arms to me is just people who don't like Dusty finding something to complain about.

You're wrong about that.

I like some things about DB. I do not like the way he uses his bullpen, and haven't for years.

kaldaniels
06-14-2012, 12:01 PM
Doug, I'm so surprised to see you relying on both ERA and a very small sample size to evaluate the second-tier guys in the pen.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 12:02 PM
In the past three years in Chicago Marshall has averaged 78 innings. This year he is on pace for less than that. I don't find his usage an issue. Complaining about using the high leverage arms to me is just people who don't like Dusty finding something to complain about.

I would complain about it no matter who the manager was. My dislike of Dusty has nothing to do with it. I think it is ridiculous that any manager would take half of his bullpen and use those guys 6 times in over two week span, then use the other half of the bullpen 26 times in that same span.

It would be one thing if those first half guys were poor pitchers. But they have a combined 2.62 ERA and over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings this year. They are pitching as well as the other group of guys are. In the long run, are they as good as the other group? Doubtful. But I don't think Arredondo and Ondrusek are any better than Hoover/LeCure/Simon right now at all either.

Hoosier Red
06-14-2012, 12:05 PM
Does it more than any other manager in the NL so far. You don't think the thread is interesting, stay out of it.

Would it be possible to see that chart for who has used their #1 reliever the most, who has used their #1 & 2 relievers the most, etc.

Dusty using his #1-4 relievers the most might be the most practical solution to making sure he doesn't over use the top 2 relievers if that makes sense.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 12:11 PM
Doug, I'm so surprised to see you relying on both ERA and a very small sample size to evaluate the second-tier guys in the pen.

LeCure has a decent history to rely. Last season he had a WHIP of 1.00. Simon doesn't have the track record, but right now, he is pitching incredibly well, no? JJ Hoover, same story. He is a rookie, but he had insane numbers in AAA and in the Majors so far, they are backing that up too.

Again, these guys aren't going out there are getting beaten around. You can't argue that these guys aren't having good seasons.

Patrick Bateman
06-14-2012, 12:54 PM
Again, these guys aren't going out there are getting beaten around. You can't argue that these guys aren't having good seasons.

However, you can argue that each of the three guys have some kind of wort that would yield a "proceed with caution" to the manager to use in key spots. Not one them has a significant sample size in the majors (or the minor league track record) that would suggest that they are good enough to pitch in those situations (Simon has the sample size, not the results). For example, although Hoover's results appear strong, he has also been noticably high in the zone, and not misses the zone a fair bit. He could easily be a homerun waiting to happen that has not shown in the sample size so far.

I think Dusty could ease them in more situations, and not be so finicky with match-ups (especially in relation to Marshall), and I don't see his infatuation with Ondrusek that he should be a clear cut above the rest of the guys, but on an overall basis, most of the Reds starters have been pitching a good amount of innings, and have generally been close games which has left the need for the 5-7 guys to be quite minimal.

Considering the overall decline in hitting these days, and quality of the Reds rotation, I'm more driven towards a conclusion that teams like the Reds don't need 7 quality bullpen arms. 4 is doing the job right now, and has been most of the season. Something has to give, and given Baker's preferences, those 3 particular guys have suffered. In my mind, three guys will continue to do so, which three I don't know (I'm guessing Ondrusek will start to get moved back towards the rest of the pile).

kaldaniels
06-14-2012, 01:06 PM
LeCure has a decent history to rely. Last season he had a WHIP of 1.00. Simon doesn't have the track record, but right now, he is pitching incredibly well, no? JJ Hoover, same story. He is a rookie, but he had insane numbers in AAA and in the Majors so far, they are backing that up too.

Again, these guys aren't going out there are getting beaten around. You can't argue that these guys aren't having good seasons.

You can't argue that but you of all people should be "looking at what to expect going forward", not what has already happened.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 01:19 PM
You can't argue that but you of all people should be "looking at what to expect going forward", not what has already happened.

Well in that case I would not be trusting Arredondo or Ondrusek that much either.

kaldaniels
06-14-2012, 01:25 PM
Well in that case I would not be trusting Arredondo or Ondrusek that much either.

And that is a much better argument than say, "Simon has a great ERA in 15 (I'm guessing on the number) IP this year...use him more!"

Just pause for a moment and realize what you've been using to evaluate these guys.

1) ERA
2) Not just ERA, but the ERA of relievers
3) Small sample size

I would expect that to be used by some, but not by you, that's all.

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 01:39 PM
And that is a much better argument than say, "Simon has a great ERA in 15 (I'm guessing on the number) IP this year...use him more!"

Just pause for a moment and realize what you've been using to evaluate these guys.

1) ERA
2) Not just ERA, but the ERA of relievers
3) Small sample size

I would expect that to be used by some, but not by you, that's all.

I have also used strikeouts and WHIP. No matter what you want to use, those dudes should have pitched more times combined than Sean Marshall has by himself in the last two weeks.

edabbs44
06-14-2012, 01:55 PM
I have also used strikeouts and WHIP. No matter what you want to use, those dudes should have pitched more times combined than Sean Marshall has by himself in the last two weeks.

Why are you so hung up on it? Do you think it is costing them games?

dougdirt
06-14-2012, 03:22 PM
Why are you so hung up on it? Do you think it is costing them games?

I think it could in the future. Be it overusage from some guys and then relying on one guy who you haven't pitched in a week when you have to.

DGullett35
06-14-2012, 06:51 PM
It seems to me that this bullpen has 2 long men. LeCure and Simon and Im with you doug that some guys are overused and then in this case LeCure and Simon are called upon after having a week or more of only bullpen sessions. Ive said it many times but I feel as though Simon could be used in high leverage situations. Give Ondrusek or Arredondo a break once in a while. Simon could pitch in the 8th or even the 7th and be successful IMO. If Im not mistaken I think Simon did it all for the O's. He started, pitched in long and short relief, and even closed out some games. JMO but I think hes more than just a long man. He could help this staff out in more ways than he currently is.