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Kc61
06-13-2012, 11:44 AM
Reds go 5-5 over last ten. So far this season, Reds have been 4-6, 5-5, 7-3, 5-5, 7-3, 5-5. Reds at 33-27, .550 winning percentage, one game up on Pittsburgh, 3 up on Cards, 5.5 up on Brewers. Reds are +22 in run differential, last time was +17. Reds are 18-13 at home, 15-14 on road. ESPN gives Reds 61.2 percent chance at playoffs, third best in NL. Constanzo sent to AAA, Negron replaced him. Stubbs out with injury, not on DL.

Offense - Reds OPS now .730, fifth in NL, up from .712 last time, current NL average OPS is .716. Reds with .248 BA (NL Ave. is .252), .314 OBP (NL Ave. is .318), .417 SLG (NL Ave. is .398). Reds OBP up from .306 last time. In 2011, Reds led league in OPS v. lefty pitching at .794. In 2012, Reds now lead the NL in OPS v. lefty pitching at .793. Reds currently 13th in NL OPS v. righty pitching with .708 (OBP at .309). 2011 Reds had .717 OPS v. righty pitching, 8th in NL (OBP was .314).

Reds fifth in NL in SB% at 74, although way down the list with 29 steals (10 CS). Reds with 30 sacrifices, tied for 3rd-5th. Reds tied for 3rd-4th with 18 Sac Flies, with Jay Bruce the NL leader with 6.

Reds OPS with none on base is .735, third in NL. Reds OPS with runners on base is .723, tenth in NL. Reds OPS with runners in scoring position is .732, 7th in NL. Reds OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs is .702, eleventh in NL.

Reds wOBA is .315, up from .309 last time, eighth in NL. Reds wRC+ is also eighth in NL, at 93, up from 89 last time.

Votto now .357(BA), .479, .643, 1.121. In last 30 days, Votto is .404(BA),.496, .702, 1.198. Votto in GABP has 1.269 OPS. On the road Votto has .955 OPS.

Todd Frazier in 112 at bats now .277, .333, .598, .932. Bruce at .857 OPS. Drop off after that to Phillips at .733 OPS. Team OBP has picked up, but Cozart at .297 and Ludwick at .287 still lag. Lefty destroyers, include Frazier at 1.052 OPS, Votto at .978, Cozart .888, Ludwick at .887, Hanigan .878, Stubbs .822, Cairo .818, Heisey .805, all numbers vs. lefties. Notably Phillips vs. lefties with .519 OPS and .172 BA in 64 at bats.

Pitching - Team ERA was 3.40 last time, now up to 3.56, fifth in NL, well below NL average of .393. Starters now 3.99, up from 3.87 last time. League average is 4.00. Relievers now at 2.64, second best in NL, last time was 2.39, so big jump there. Reds with second fewest walks allowed in NL, 163. BAA is .252, seventh lowest in NL. Reds with 17 saves, tied for 5th-8th in NL. Reds FIP is 3.85, tenth best in league. Reds xFIP is .379, sixth best in league.

Cueto now 7-3 with 2.46. Other starting ERAs range from Arroyo at 3.79 to Leake 4.97. Last 30 days, Leake at 2.84 and Bailey 3.82 lead starters in ERA, with Latos at 5.28. In that period, Leake is 2-0, Bailey 3-1, Cueto 3-3, Arroyo 0-3, Latos 2-0. Of relievers in last 30 days, Simon with no runs allowed in 9 innings, Ondrusek with 8.10 ERA allowing .341 BAA and 2.00 WHIP in 10 innings.

Opposition broke through against Chapman, now 4-2, 0.87 ERA, 31 IP, 55 Ks, 10 BBs, .68 WHIP. Other than Bray (DL, very small sample) all Reds pitchers with WHIP at 1.40 or better. All relievers better than 1.30 WHIP except Ondrusek (1.34), Lecure (1.37), Marshall (1.39). Hoover with .96 WHIP, Arredondo 1.06, Cueto 1.16.

Fielding - Reds with .986 FPCT tied for lead league, team now with 30 errors, fewest in NL, only two errors in last ten games. Team DER (mlb.com) is tied for sixth-seventh in league at .696. Last time was .698. Fangraphs UZR has Reds at -2.3, ninth best in league.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 11:52 AM
33-27 is record ;)

Kc61
06-13-2012, 11:52 AM
33-27 is record ;)

Will fix, typo, sorry.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 11:54 AM
Will fix, typo, sorry.Now, if Dusty consulted RZ, they might have that record. :)

Kc61
06-13-2012, 12:11 PM
Now, if Dusty consulted RZ, they might have that record. :)

LOL. By the way, made a few other corrections.

This time around, the worm turned a bit. More offense, less pitching. The pitching numbers were even worse than indicated, except Mr. Cueto got in under the wire of the 10 game spread.

I'd expect to see more of the same, more hitting, perhaps some further decline in pitching. I still think 3.56 is a bit optimistic for the Reds pitching. (This is just based on previous years; I'm not used to a mid-3s ERA for the team.)

So hopefully the offense will continue to improve. It's uncanny that the OPS v. lefties is now virtually identical to last year's excellent OPS number. The rub, of course, is hitting RHP. Some ways this can improve is for Bruce to get hot again; Rolen to make a good return (Frazier crushes lefties, Scott however can help against righties); a deal could be made for a lefty bat or a righty who hits RHP; or the team could just generally do better against righty pitching.

On the pitching side, some of the numbers surprised me. Arredondo, despite his walks, has some excellent numbers, Ks, BAA, only a 1.06 WHIP. Maybe he should have stayed in to face Fielder, as some suggested.

Leake and Bailey doing much better. But Latos really needs to pick things up. Maybe tonight.

traderumor
06-13-2012, 01:24 PM
It seems to me that the trends you are noting is typical in MLB, as pitching declines as the year goes on. Hot summer, long season, pitchers fading, injuries...