Elephant in the Room

[11larkin11]

What to do tomorrow with Rolen back?

I'm guessing that with Stubbs on the DL, Heisey will be the CF (He PH'ed today so I assume he'll be there, or Valdez if he's not) and Frazier will be the LF with Rolen at 3B. On Rolen's off days, Frazier will be 3B and Ludwick will be in Left.

When Stubbs comes back, what does everyone think will happen? I know what most people WISH would happen, but what WILL happen?

And please, don't use this as a Dusty bash thread.

[kaldaniels]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=96158

[Tom Servo]

Negron to Louisville
Rolen to 3B
Frazier to LF


boom

[reds44]

Negron to Louisville
Rolen to 3B
Frazier to LF


boom
Yup.

Cozart
Heisey/Valdez/Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Frazier
Rolen
Catcher

[kaldaniels]

Negron to Louisville
Rolen to 3B
Frazier to LF


boom

Agreed. I'm watching Rolen's bat very carefully though. I truly hope
he is in better condition than in April.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I know it WON'T happen...but what I'd LIKE to see happen is for Rolen to be moved to the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch hitter. He has NOT been producing for quite a while now (injury or no injury). Frazier has done all he can and more to earn a starting spot IMO. Ludwick & Heisey are just now starting to really hit. Once Stubbs comes back I expect him to be back as the starting CF'er with Ludwick/Heisey platooning in left again.

But Rolen...bench/defensive sub. It's time.

[reds44]

I know it WON'T happen...but what I'd LIKE to see happen is for Rolen to be moved to the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch hitter. He has NOT been producing for quite a while now (injury or no injury). Frazier has done all he can and more to earn a starting spot IMO. Ludwick & Heisey are just now starting to really hit. Once Stubbs comes back I expect him to be back as the starting CF'er with Ludwick/Heisey platooning in left again.

But Rolen...bench/defensive sub. It's time.
That's not going to happen yet. Neither Heisey nor Ludwick have good enough numbers to make that happen. If Rolen comes back and continues to struggle, it's something that could happen down the line. Won't happen right now, though.

[kaldaniels]

The absence of production in left field has given Scott a little more rope.

[reds44]

The absence of production in left field has given Scott a little more rope.
Yep. Exactly.

[Tom Servo]

It's also worth noting that Ludwick has played some CF in his career :D

[defender]

Reds will also need a DH, so Frazier will be in there somewhere.

[11larkin11]

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=96158

Whoops, just scrolled the first page and didn't see anything. Figured it would be a bigger deal and not that far back. Mods can merge if needed.

[_Sir_Charles_]

That's not going to happen yet. Neither Heisey nor Ludwick have good enough numbers to make that happen. If Rolen comes back and continues to struggle, it's something that could happen down the line. Won't happen right now, though.

I agree. It won't happen. It should though.

Since the ASB of 2010...

2010 3 hr, 26 rbi (188 ab) 277/352/420/772 (post asb)
2011 5 hr, 36 rbi (252 ab) 242/279/397/676
2012 2 hr, 11 rbi ( 92 ab) 174/238/304/542

How anyone can't see that he's toast by now is just ignoring the obvious IMO.

[Kc61]

Congrats on the thread title to 11 Larkin BTW, very appropriate.

There are a lot of issues here.

Ludwick has hit pretty well of late, for good power. Heisey seemed to be coming around when hurt. Valdez just played an excellent series against the Mets. Frazier has played like a solid NL starter.

The bigger names at this point are Rolen and Stubbs. Yet I wonder if the offense will perform better when they return.

The second elephant in the room is Stubbs. Reds offense seems to have done well while he's been out. While watching this offense, I don't miss the Stubbs strikeouts. He has his virtues, no doubt, but the team has performed well with others manning CF.

So I see two elephants in the room and I'm interested in seeing how it works out. Hopefully both Rolen and Stubbs will do well when they return and everyone else can fill in when needed.

[nemesis]

So I see two elephants in the room


So do I and the offense has been better with Stubbs out.

Last year the Cardinals moved a very similar underachieving player in Colby Rasmus for some bullpen help. Alot of people felt they made a terrible move and got very little in value for him. As we all know that move worked out very, very well. I would like to see the Reds explore the market for Stubbs. Maybe a package to Minnesota with a couple SP prospects and Gregorious for Willingham and Span?

Frazier probably has put up better numbers since Rolen has been out than Rolen will if he was to stay healthy the remainder year.

I also expect Rolen will break down at some point again before years end. So 3B doesn't worry me that much.

[reds44]

I'm all for moving Stubbs.

[757690]

The offense has been better since Stubbs went out because Valdez has been raking. I guess the smart thing to do is to play Valdez everyday in CF and expect him to hit 200 points over his career OPS. ;)

[757690]

I'm all for moving Stubbs.

Why? What good will it do?

You're not going to get a better outfielder for him, and that's what the Reds need. They don't need pitching. They need bench players and a legit starting OF. Rather just make Stubbs a bench player for now then trade him for a Willie Bloomquist type.

[nemesis]

The offense has been better since Stubbs went out because Valdez has been raking. I guess the smart thing to do is to play Valdez everyday in CF and expect him to hit 200 points over his career OPS. ;)

No. But playing Heisey there isn't much of a drop off if any at all.

And if you do make a move for Willingham and Span...

Span
Phillips
Votto
Willingham
Bruce
Frazier/Rolen
Cozart
Hanigan/Mesoraco

Looks a whole lot better than

Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Rolen/Frazier
Ludwick/Heisey
Hanigan/Mesoraco

[757690]

No. But playing Heisey there isn't much of a drop off if any at all.

And if you do make a move for Willingham and Span...

Span
Phillips
Votto
Willingham
Bruce
Frazier
Cozart
Hanigan/Mesoraco

Looks a whole lot better than

Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Rolen
Ludwick/Heisey
Hanigan/Mesoraco

Adding Ryan Braun and Mike Trout makes them better too. ;)

Who do you give up to get those guys? How do you afford them payroll wise?

[Kc61]

The offense has been better since Stubbs went out because Valdez has been raking. I guess the smart thing to do is to play Valdez everyday in CF and expect him to hit 200 points over his career OPS. ;)

Obviously not. But there is a serious question raised by this thread.

The whole group for 3B, LF, and CF is Stubbs, Rolen, Ludwick, Heisey, Valdez, Cairo, Frazier.

I think it's fair to say that the two outstanding defenders in the group are Rolen and Stubbs. In that regard, they will improve the team when they return.

But this thread raises the serious question whether the offense, which is now going well, will be helped by playing Rolen and Stubbs every day. I'm not sure of the answer.

Can Rolen hit any more? Will Stubbs curtail his strikeouts and hit well, as he has in spots this year? Are the Reds better off with Frazier at third? With Heisey in CF and Valdez as his backup? If Frazier plays LF, do the Reds lose some power by sitting Ludwick? Should the Reds take this whole group, trade some, keep some, and come up with a new allignment?

These are questions worthy of discussion. It's just not so obvious that Rolen/Stubbs makes this a better team right now.

[Tom Servo]

I'm not against trading Stubbs for a decent bat/arm, but I don't think a Heisey/Valdez/Harris/whoever platoon would be especially better offensively and almost certainly not defensively.

[HokieRed]

I'd give Rolen a real look at 3b with Frazier in left, at the same time giving Ludwick and Heisey enough AB's to keep improving. Stubbs, IMO, should be the first odd man out. It's too early to deal him, but I'd start making preliminary inquiries.

[Vottomatic]

Stubbs + prospect for Carlos Quentin. Padres get something for a rental. Reds overpay but get their legit righthanded cleanup hitter with good career OBP in the .340-.350 range. Reds rid themselves of the outfield logjam and what to do with Stubbs/Heisey situation.

Rolen comes back, figures out after 30 to 40 games he's toast, and retires for the good of the team. Frazier moves back to 3B.

SS Cozart
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF Quentin
RF Bruce
CF Heisey
3B Rolen/Frazier
C Haniraco

Offenses explodes even more. :thumbup:

[mth123]

Add a lefty bat to the mix. Deal Prospects for Dejesus (Lotzkar and Christiani is where I'd start). Deal Ludwick for salary relief since he's mostly just a lefty killer and the Reds have those coming out their ears.

Against LHP, Rolen at 3B, Frazier in LF and Stubbs in CF. Bruce and Heisey split time in RF 50/50.

Against RHP Rolen at 3B 50% of the time, Frazier 50% of the time. The Acquisition (Dejesus) in LF 100% of the time. Heisey and Stubbs each get 50% of the time in CF.

Once in a while Rolen gets and extra day off with Cairo getting a start.

For it to work, the team needs to switch Ludwick out for a LH Bat (Dejesus).

Lacking an acquisition, then the PAs against RHP in LF are split between Frazier and Ludwick with Ludwick only playing when Frazier is playing 3B or needs a day-off.

[reds44]

Why? What good will it do?

You're not going to get a better outfielder for him, and that's what the Reds need. They don't need pitching. They need bench players and a legit starting OF. Rather just make Stubbs a bench player for now then trade him for a Willie Bloomquist type.
You don't think the Twins would trade Willingham for Stubbs? I absolutely think they would.

[mth123]

You don't think the Twins would trade Willingham for Stubbs? I absolutely think they would.

No way would the Twins do that. Maybe if you add Corcino and Gregorious. Too many teams looking for big bats.

[Vottomatic]

No way would the Twins do that. Maybe if you add Corcino and Gregorious. Too many teams looking for big bats.

What teams?

San Fran maybe. Not the Dodgers. Diamondbacks already have big bats.

St. Louis has plenty of big bats with Beltran and Holiday. Pirates won't pony up prospects or pay enough.

Nationals are set. Miami is set. Mets and Braves are fading. Mets have salary/money problems to begin with.

Tigers have enough big bats. Indians are fading. Rangers are set with big bats.

Yankees are set. Tampa won't do anything. Toronto has Bautista and EE.

I really don't see a HUGE market where all these so-called teams are lining up to add a big bat. Especially a rental.

Personally, I think the Reds should strike now and maybe overpay a little bit to get it done. Then let's put some distance between us and the Central.

[757690]

Personally, I think the Reds should strike now and maybe overpay a little bit to get it done. Then let's put some distance between us and the Central.

Unlike they are doing right now?

[fearofpopvol1]

Stubbs + prospect for Carlos Quentin. Padres get something for a rental. Reds overpay but get their legit righthanded cleanup hitter with good career OBP in the .340-.350 range. Reds rid themselves of the outfield logjam and what to do with Stubbs/Heisey situation.

Rolen comes back, figures out after 30 to 40 games he's toast, and retires for the good of the team. Frazier moves back to 3B.

SS Cozart
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF Quentin
RF Bruce
CF Heisey
3B Rolen/Frazier
C Haniraco

Offenses explodes even more. :thumbup:

If Quentin was willing to negotiate an extension and if the Reds could afford him, sign me up here. It's a lot of ifs, though.

[757690]

You don't think the Twins would trade Willingham for Stubbs? I absolutely think they would.

I wouldn't do that if I were the Reds. Willingham is a butcher in the field and owed $21M over the next few years. He's a three win player at best with his defense. I honestly think Stubbs out performs him WAR wise over the next few years.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Add a lefty bat to the mix. Deal Prospects for Dejesus (Lotzkar and Christiani is where I'd start). Deal Ludwick for salary relief since he's mostly just a lefty killer and the Reds have those coming out their ears.

Against LHP, Rolen at 3B, Frazier in LF and Stubbs in CF. Bruce and Heisey split time in RF 50/50.

Against RHP Rolen at 3B 50% of the time, Frazier 50% of the time. The Acquisition (Dejesus) in LF 100% of the time. Heisey and Stubbs each get 50% of the time in CF.

Once in a while Rolen gets and extra day off with Cairo getting a start.

For it to work, the team needs to switch Ludwick out for a LH Bat (Dejesus).

Lacking an acquisition, then the PAs against RHP in LF are split between Frazier and Ludwick with Ludwick only playing when Frazier is playing 3B or needs a day-off.

Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.

I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.

As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.

LF-Heisey full time
CF-Stubbs full time
RF-Bruce full time
3b-Frazier full time
SS-Cozart full time
2b-Phillips full time
1b-Votto full time
C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split

Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.

Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)

If you're wanting a lefty/righty mix...then I kinda like adding Dorn & Navarro to the bench and saying goodbye to Harris, Negron and maybe one of Cairo/Rolen retires. Valdez, while normally putrid, gives you IF/OF defense. Navarro gives you bench options while allowing the backup catcher (Hanigan/Mesoraco) to actually pinchhit instead of being forced to save your backup C for emergencies. While Dorn gives you a lefty on the bench that actually has some pop. He can be Votto's back up and he can play LF too. Just a better fit than Costanzo was (I never understood bringing him up) and fits better than Harris as well who is just a noodle bat. If Cairo goes down/retires, then Janish is his replacement IMO.

The pen is just as much of a mess once Bray & Masset return. If I had to guess, I'd say Simon & Hoover are the odd men out. But I think I'd like to see LeCure sent out too and stretched out for a backup starter again and just go with an 11 man rotation.

11 pitchers
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Leake
Arroyo
Ondrusek (r)
Arredondo (r)
Bray (l)
Masset (r)
Marshall (l) (I'd still prefer Marshall closing, but that ain't happening)
Chapman (l)

14 position players
Votto 1b (l)
Phillips 2b (r)
Cozart ss (r)
Frazier 3b (r)
Heisey lf (r)
Stubbs cf (r)
Bruce rf (l)
Hanigan c (r)
Mesoraco c (r)
Valdez IF/OF (r)
Ludwick OF (r)
Cairo IF (r)
Navarro C (s)
Dorn 1b/OF (l)

Much better lefty/righty splits on both the bench and in the pen. But it forces some tough choices IMO. Rolen retiring being the biggest. Simon, LeCure, Hoover sent down. Harris & Negron sent down too. It also keeps us pushing the minor league kids with upside before they're ready (HRod & Didi just because they hit from the left/switch).

I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer. ;)

[mth123]

What teams?

San Fran maybe. Not the Dodgers. Diamondbacks already have big bats.

St. Louis has plenty of big bats with Beltran and Holiday. Pirates won't pony up prospects or pay enough.

Nationals are set. Miami is set. Mets and Braves are fading. Mets have salary/money problems to begin with.

Tigers have enough big bats. Indians are fading. Rangers are set with big bats.

Yankees are set. Tampa won't do anything. Toronto has Bautista and EE.

I really don't see a HUGE market where all these so-called teams are lining up to add a big bat. Especially a rental.

Personally, I think the Reds should strike now and maybe overpay a little bit to get it done. Then let's put some distance between us and the Central.

Sure, and the Reds have Bruce, Phillips and Votto. Both the Dodgers and Blue Jays have a big hole in LF. The Braves may be after one with Prado spending more time in the IF. All those teams have better prospects than the Reds. Not really sure the Yankees are set. A-Rod is way past his prime in the clean-up spot, not sure when Gardner will be back and they don't really have a DH. I'm not convinced that the Marlins are happy with Sanchez at 1B or Morrison's defense in LF. Willingham in LF with Lomo moving to 1B makes a lot of sense. The Tigers are manning LF with Ryan Raburn and waiting for Andy Dirks - nuff said there.

[mth123]

Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.

I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.

As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.

LF-Heisey full time
CF-Stubbs full time
RF-Bruce full time
3b-Frazier full time
SS-Cozart full time
2b-Phillips full time
1b-Votto full time
C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split

Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.

Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)

If you're wanting a lefty/righty mix...then I kinda like adding Dorn & Navarro to the bench and saying goodbye to Harris, Negron and maybe one of Cairo/Rolen retires. Valdez, while normally putrid, gives you IF/OF defense. Navarro gives you bench options while allowing the backup catcher (Hanigan/Mesoraco) to actually pinchhit instead of being forced to save your backup C for emergencies. While Dorn gives you a lefty on the bench that actually has some pop. He can be Votto's back up and he can play LF too. Just a better fit than Costanzo was (I never understood bringing him up) and fits better than Harris as well who is just a noodle bat. If Cairo goes down/retires, then Janish is his replacement IMO.

The pen is just as much of a mess once Bray & Masset return. If I had to guess, I'd say Simon & Hoover are the odd men out. But I think I'd like to see LeCure sent out too and stretched out for a backup starter again and just go with an 11 man rotation.

11 pitchers
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Leake
Arroyo
Ondrusek (r)
Arredondo (r)
Bray (l)
Masset (r)
Marshall (l) (I'd still prefer Marshall closing, but that ain't happening)
Chapman (l)

14 position players
Votto 1b (l)
Phillips 2b (r)
Cozart ss (r)
Frazier 3b (r)
Heisey lf (r)
Stubbs cf (r)
Bruce rf (l)
Hanigan c (r)
Mesoraco c (r)
Valdez IF/OF (r)
Ludwick OF (r)
Cairo IF (r)
Navarro C (s)
Dorn 1b/OF (l)

Much better lefty/righty splits on both the bench and in the pen. But it forces some tough choices IMO. Rolen retiring being the biggest. Simon, LeCure, Hoover sent down. Harris & Negron sent down too. It also keeps us pushing the minor league kids with upside before they're ready (HRod & Didi just because they hit from the left/switch).

I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer. ;)

I think no matter who from the current roster plays, the team is going to go flat against RHP. Phillips won't keep bucking his career trends against RHP and Frazier will suffer a real dry spell once the league figures out he can't lay off that pitch running away to the outside corner. Righty pitching with a breaking ball will eat him up the same way they do Stubbs IMO. None of the other RH bats will sustain an OPS north of .700 against RHP. That makes for a very short line-up consisting of Votto and Bruce. They need to add a lefty bat who hits well against RHP and can get on base in front of them.

As for the choices, Harris and Negron are dead men walking waiting for Rolen and Stubbs to be activated. Somebody else needs to go to make room for a lefty, whether its a good one like Dejesus, Venable or Seth Smith, a filler like Dorn or Navarro or an unproven like H-Rod. My vote is Ludwick at this point. Rolen is a serious upgrade at 3B defensively to Frazier and Frazier is an upgrade in LF compared to Ludwick (who isn't bad). Ludwick is the same auto out against RHP that I expect Rolen to be (and Stubbs, Heisey and Cozart and IMO Frazier going forward). May as well have the best defensvie guys because they all crush lefties. So, even though Ludwick has been a pretty good lefty killer, the Reds won't miss him much with all the other lefy killers on hand.

[OnBaseMachine]

Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.

[reds44]

Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.
.686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I agree with OBM. He's just not a very good LEADOFF hitter. I think it gets in his head.

[M2]

Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.

I'd love to have the LH/RH breakdown on Stubbs' numbers in the #2 slot. Given that he's got a .619 OPS vs. RHPs, I've got a funny feeling what we're seeing with those #2 slot numbers is Stubbs making some hay vs. LHPs.

The interesting thing with Stubbs is that by the time he gets back, the Reds might be under the distinct impression that he's surplus to requirements. In the world of sports you're only as essential as you and circumstance can make you.

[Caveat Emperor]

.686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.

And, really, he hasn't been a very good hitter anywhere as a professional. Career .765 OPS guy for his career in the minors.

[Kc61]

I haven't analyzed the overall impact of Stubbs' being out of the lineup. So I can't comment definitively on how his recent absence has impacted the Reds.

I would note that in June of this year the Reds offense has the tenth most strikeouts in the NL. In May of this year the Reds offense had the sixth most strikeouts in the Nl.

I like the June brand of offense better.

[WVRedsFan]

Stubbs is a streak hitter like many of the Reds including Bruce, Phillips, and even Cozart. And many others. His value lies in his speed and defense. I think he is valuable if batting 7th. But Dusty is the master of that. He may be miscast.

[reds44]

And, really, he hasn't been a very good hitter anywhere as a professional. Career .765 OPS guy for his career in the minors.
Exactly, I just think he is what he is at this point. I'll be very surprised if he ever approaches his 2010 numbers again. He's not a bad player at all. With his speed and defense he's a useful starter who I think will have a lot of value on the market because of his skill set. I'm not bashing on Stubbs by any means, I just think he brings the Reds more value in a trade than he does actually on the field at this point.

If he doesn't have the value I think he does on the trade market, I have no problem hanging on to him.

[reds44]

I'd love to have the LH/RH breakdown on Stubbs' numbers in the #2 slot. Given that he's got a .619 OPS vs. RHPs, I've got a funny feeling what we're seeing with those #2 slot numbers is Stubbs making some hay vs. LHPs.

The interesting thing with Stubbs is that by the time he gets back, the Reds might be under the distinct impression that he's surplus to requirements. In the world of sports you're only as essential as you and circumstance can make you.
Not to mention the fact Stubbs may have an .824 OPS hitting 2nd, but Cozart had a 1.016 OPS while hitting in front of Votto.

[757690]

.686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.

.723 career OPS plus 93/116 in SB. Even if he's just league average defensively in CF, that's a very valuable player.

[mth123]

.723 career OPS plus 93/116 in SB. Even if he's just league average defensively in CF, that's a very valuable player.

.762 in 198 PAs in 2009 and .773 in 583 PAs in 2010 are driving that number much higher than what we should expect going forward IMO. The league knows Stubbs act and they know how to get him out. I don't think we'll ever see those kinds of numbers from Stubbs again unless he learns some new tricks.

Over 600 PAs playing every day, I'd expect an OPS in the .650 to .675 range. If he drops to 400 PAs where he sits half the time against RHP, I'd expect an OPS in the .725 to .750 range. If he had .200 PAs where he only played against LHP, I'd expect .800 to .825.

[757690]

.762 in 198 PAs in 2009 and .773 in 583 PAs in 2010 are driving that number much higher than what we should expect going forward IMO. The league knows Stubbs act and they know how to get him out. I don't think we'll ever see those kinds of numbers from Stubbs again unless he learns some new tricks.

Over 600 PAs playing every day, I'd expect an OPS in the .650 to .675 range. If he drops to 400 PAs where he sits half the time against RHP, I'd expect an OPS in the .725 to .750 range. If he had .200 PAs where he only played against LHP, I'd expect .800 to .825.

After the first two weeks of the season, when he was adjusting to a new hitting approach, he's posted a .730 OPS. I expect that going forward for him. One thing that's suppressing his OPS this year, is his extremely low doubles rate. His HR rate is steady, but his SLG is way down. He's the anti-Votto, lol. I see that as a fluke and self adjusting, which should raise his OPS even further.

[CesarGeronimo]

Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.

I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.

As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.

LF-Heisey full time
CF-Stubbs full time
RF-Bruce full time
3b-Frazier full time
SS-Cozart full time
2b-Phillips full time
1b-Votto full time
C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split

Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.

Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)



So you think Dusty is going to put Rolen on the bench? I don't see that happening at all. If Rolen says he's healthy enough to play, he'll be in the lineup most of the time and batting no lower than 6th, I'm afraid. I would not be surprised to see him back in the cleanup spot, even though it would be ridiculous.

[OnBaseMachine]

.686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.

Even with that .686 OPS last year he posted a 2.6 WAR. I don't want any part of Heisey as the full-time CFer. I think he's a decent defender in CF but that's it. And his power has dropped off this year + he doesn't walk. Stubbs is a better player.

Edit - I like Heisey. I'm glad he's on the team but I like him as a 4th outfielder.

[lidspinner]

a few things to add....Stubbs is not a very good hitter, this team relies on him taking those gap shots away that Junior used to let drop, that doesnt happen anymore at all...We need Drew to play stellar defense and just be average at the plate, sure a .280+ average with walks would help but I am not going to ask for the entire package just yet, when you play that good of a CF, you deserve a little cushion. The downside is Drew is starting to get to that point in Baseball years where you have to ask yourself if he is done growing as a hitter, or does he still have a few more years left to season his skills at the plate? Thats a tough call and one that I am glad I dont have to make.

2nd point....has anyone thought about the possibility of Rolen coming back and simply telling Dusty to sit him and let Todd play more often? I know it sounds odd but Rolen is exactly the type of player to do such a thing.....I think it was Scott who basically put himself on the DL with a "injury".....I think Rolen knew that TF needed some time there and we needed his bat in the lineup if the Reds were to take over the central. If Rolen comes back and goes on absolute fire then great, but if he dont and he continues his 2011 like hitting, then I can see Scott going to Dusty and almost forcing TF into the lineup......of course, thats just my opinion but Rolen seems like the type of player that would rather see us win than see us lose because he is taking AB's from a better hitter. I could see Rolen spending a lot of time with Todd teaching him the finer points of 3rd base.......its going to be fun to watch and see what happens.

[WVRedsFan]

Even with that .686 OPS last year he posted a 2.6 WAR. I don't want any part of Heisey as the full-time CFer. I think he's a decent defender in CF but that's it. And his power has dropped off this year + he doesn't walk. Stubbs is a better player.Totally agree with this. The great love for Heisey amazes me. He's a bench player on any other team in our league.

[reds44]

.723 career OPS plus 93/116 in SB. Even if he's just league average defensively in CF, that's a very valuable player.
Those numbers are trending down though, not up.

[reds44]

Even with that .686 OPS last year he posted a 2.6 WAR. I don't want any part of Heisey as the full-time CFer. I think he's a decent defender in CF but that's it. And his power has dropped off this year + he doesn't walk. Stubbs is a better player.

Edit - I like Heisey. I'm glad he's on the team but I like him as a 4th outfielder.
Again, you're arguing different things. If Stubbs and Heisey are both on the team, Stubbs should be the one playing. But can the Reds send Stubbs some place in exchange for something that improves the team? It really depends on how other GMs view him.

Is Heisey CF/Whoever Stubbs+ is traded for in LF > than Stubbs CF/Heisey+Ludwick LF?

Although this entire conversation could be irrelevant if Rolen comes back and plays well and Frazier continues to hit. I think Rolen is toast, though.

[_Sir_Charles_]

So you think Dusty is going to put Rolen on the bench? I don't see that happening at all. If Rolen says he's healthy enough to play, he'll be in the lineup most of the time and batting no lower than 6th, I'm afraid. I would not be surprised to see him back in the cleanup spot, even though it would be ridiculous.

Last sentence in my post....


I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer. ;)

[Scrap Irony]

I expect Frazier to play quite a bit at both 3B and in LF.

As Rolen comes back, I expect him to play much more in LF.

He's (Frazier) largely the reason why the Reds have taken off in June. He's the second impact bat in the lineup. Add that to Phillips catching fire, Bruce's adequacy, and Votto's brilliance, and the Red offense is no longer blah. It's fun to watch.

Lots of K's. Some walks. Big power.

[REDREAD]

Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.

I agree. Stubbs has really helped the offense from the #2 hole.
We were really fortunate to get great production out of Valdez while he filled in, but people are underestimating the impact of Stubbs.
Last year, in Stubbs' down year, he was still in the middle of the pack for WAR for CF. I really don't understand why people are down on Stubbs. A team like the Reds which is built on pitching really benefits from OF defense.

[Scrap Irony]

I really don't understand why people are down on Stubbs. A team like the Reds which is built on pitching really benefits from OF defense.

Stubbs' wOBA has dropped three years in a row and is less than league average. His UZR indicates a less than average to poor CF glove. Another, lesser heralded player can do just as well (or at least close enough) and is likely to cost less going forward.

He was 17th among all qualified CF last season in wOBA, ahead of only Angel Pagan, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus, and and Alex Rios. This season, he's ahead of only Jordan Schafer and Cameron Maybin.

Those of us that are "down" on Stubbs have good reason, IMO.

[Raisor]

I expect Frazier to play quite a bit at both 3B and in LF.

As Rolen comes back, I expect him to play much more in LF.

He's (Frazier) largely the reason why the Reds have taken off in June. He's the second impact bat in the lineup. Add that to Phillips catching fire, Bruce's adequacy, and Votto's brilliance, and the Red offense is no longer blah. It's fun to watch.

Lots of K's. Some walks. Big power.

I want Todd Frazier to play every day but I think Jay Bruce's 957 OPS has more to do with the June run more then Frazier's 836.

[Chip R]

You have to find out if Rolen is recovered from his shoulder problem. Personally I would have liked to have seen him do a longer minor league rehab assignment - like about 2 weeks - but eventually you have to find out if he can still hit at a major league level. The only way to do that is to put him in the lineup. Frazier's still going to get a lot of playing time in LF and at 3rd when Rolen's not playing there.

[OnBaseMachine]

Last night was another reason I don't want Heisey as the everyday CFer. That ball Brantley hit to lead off the 4th inning would have been caught by Stubbs. Heisey dropped it, and it eventually led to a three run inning. Stubbs catches that ball standing up.

And as I said earlier, I'm a Heisey fan. I'm glad he's on the team. I think he's a valuable 4th outfielder, but he's just that. Not an everyday player, IMO. I think he's average in CF, and I prefer to have someone with better range in CF.

[Boss-Hog]

Last night was another reason I don't want Heisey as the everyday CFer. That ball Brantley hit to lead off the 4th inning would have been caught by Stubbs. Heisey dropped it, and it eventually led to a three run inning. Stubbs catches that ball standing up.

I'm not a big Stubbs fan, but I agree with that.

[oneupper]

Last night was another reason I don't want Heisey as the everyday CFer. That ball Brantley hit to lead off the 4th inning would have been caught by Stubbs. Heisey dropped it, and it eventually led to a three run inning. Stubbs catches that ball standing up.

Heisey could have had it standing up also. A lot of mustard on that hot dog.

The thing isn't Heisey, its Stubbs. Stubbs at the plate is brutal to watch. In that sense, he's the anti-Votto.

[Red Rover]

Heisey could have had it standing up also. A lot of mustard on that hot dog.

The thing isn't Heisey, its Stubbs. Stubbs at the plate is brutal to watch. In that sense, he's the anti-Votto.

Heisey's numbers this year are just as bad. Why not play the better defender?

[oneupper]

Heisey's numbers this year are just as bad. Why not play the better defender?

If you expect that to continue, sure. But Heisey out-hit Stubbs in the minors and has done so in the majors also, albeit with limited playing time.

In a crucial situation, I prefer just about anyone to Stubbs up there.
Career .639 OPS with RISP and .654 with runners on for Drew.
Heisey is only a tad better at .653 and .703.

Wilson Valdez is better in that regard. (.764 career RISP hitter).

Maybe its splitting hairs or choosing the rock/hard place. I'd take my chances with Heisey. But that's me and I don't think Dusty thinks that way.

[REDREAD]

Stubbs' wOBA has dropped three years in a row and is less than league average. His UZR indicates a less than average to poor CF glove. Another, lesser heralded player can do just as well (or at least close enough) and is likely to cost less going forward.

He was 17th among all qualified CF last season in wOBA, ahead of only Angel Pagan, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus, and and Alex Rios. This season, he's ahead of only Jordan Schafer and Cameron Maybin.

Those of us that are "down" on Stubbs have good reason, IMO.

Stubb's salary is not an issue, and it won't be an issue unless he has a breakout season, which no one will complain about.

Sure, Stubbs had a down year last season.
But this year, he's started 51 games.
36 of those games in the #2 hole with a 824 OPS.. especially with his speed and defense, that's a valuable player. Not I agree he was absysmal in the other 15 games that he did not bat #2..
He's a streaky player, like most of our guys, but I'm not willing to trade him for a rental LF that can't play defense that is only a marginal upgrade over what we have. I'm in no hurry at all to trade Stubbs.. The Reds would have to be bowled over for me to even consider it. Stubbs has solidified CF. Even if he's only an "average" CF.. Average CF are hard to find, and it's great not to have to trot a Corey Patterson out there. Heisey is a lesser player than Stubbs, IMO. Plus, it's useful to have both of them on the roster.

[Kc61]

To some extent, the Stubbs/Heisey debate revolves around other players at other positions.

The Reds have too few lefty hitters. The Reds lack true tablesetters. The Reds lack a true middle of the order RHH.

If the Reds were to add one or more of these types, Stubbs' hitting would matter less.

I find Drew difficult to watch, he misses so many pitches, his inability to foul them off. But if the Reds had a better balanced offense, Drew could hit seventh - or even second - and his offensive issues wouldn't have that much impact.

We're all looking for a big positive from CF offensively. Maybe we get the big positive from a different position and Drew would be adequate.

As for Heisey, he had a bad game last night so I'm not discussing him today.

[hebroncougar]

And, really, he hasn't been a very good hitter anywhere as a professional. Career .765 OPS guy for his career in the minors.<br />
Exactly, I just think he is what he is at this point. I'll be very surprised if he ever approaches his 2010 numbers again. He's not a bad player at all. With his speed and defense he's a useful starter who I think will have a lot of value on the market because of his skill set. I'm not bashing on Stubbs by any means, I just think he brings the Reds more value in a trade than he does actually on the field at this point. <br />
<br />
If he doesn't have the value I think he does on the trade market, I have no problem hanging on to him.
I think a lot of Stubbs value is given to him from the park he plays in. His career home splits are way above his road.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

[fearofpopvol1]

One does have to wonder how long Rolen will be given? He hasn't had a hit since the 23rd. Will Dusty continue to stick with this vet?

Season line...

Average is .184, OBP is .243, SLG is .322 (OPS .572) with 3 home runs.

Now, he has had only 125ish ABs this year, but still. Outside of a couple of games, he's looked dismal offensively. I was glad to at least see him at 7th in the lineup tonight, but really, he should be splitting time with Frazier at this point. Even though I prefer his glove any day of the week over Frazier's, I don't think Frazier has looked horrible at 3B. And as long as he keeps hitting, it's worth having him in the lineup.

[757690]

One does have to wonder how long Rolen will be given? He hasn't had a hit since the 23rd. Will Dusty continue to stick with this vet?

Season line...

Average is .184, OBP is .243, SLG is .322 (OPS .572) with 3 home runs.

Now, he has had only 125ish ABs this year, but still. Outside of a couple of games, he's looked dismal offensively. I was glad to at least see him at 7th in the lineup tonight, but really, he should be splitting time with Frazier at this point. Even though I prefer his glove any day of the week over Frazier's, I don't think Frazier has looked horrible at 3B. And as long as he keeps hitting, it's worth having him in the lineup.

In his first five games back, he posted over a 1.000 OPS. He has been hitless in his last four starts, but the first of those was the game where the ump was called him out in his first two AB's on pitches way out of the zone, forcing him to swing at bad pitches, then, he faced Greinke, Baumgardner, and Cain.

I just think it's way too soon to be making any judgements about Rolen.

[Sea Ray]

In his first five games back, he posted over a 1.000 OPS. He has been hitless in his last four starts, but the first of those was the game where the ump was called him out in his first two AB's on pitches way out of the zone, forcing him to swing at bad pitches, then, he faced Greinke, Baumgardner, and Cain.

I just think it's way too soon to be making any judgements about Rolen.

I think Rolen will call it quits before Dusty has to. Scott has a lot of pride and it wouldn't surprise me if he pulls a Ken Griffey Jr and just walks out of the clubhouse one day

[reds44]

In his first five games back, he posted over a 1.000 OPS. He has been hitless in his last four starts, but the first of those was the game where the ump was called him out in his first two AB's on pitches way out of the zone, forcing him to swing at bad pitches, then, he faced Greinke, Baumgardner, and Cain.

I just think it's way too soon to be making any judgements about Rolen.
He's been terrible for nearly 2 calender years now. How is it too soon? Dude is toast. I don't even want him to retire. With how bad our bench is I think he'd be great coming off the bench for the rest of the year and then retiring, but he's not an everyday player anymore. He's just not.

[Raisor]

Rolen has value as a PH and late inning defensive replacement, but Frazier needs to be getting 90 percent of the PAs at 3B

[fearofpopvol1]

In his first five games back, he posted over a 1.000 OPS. He has been hitless in his last four starts, but the first of those was the game where the ump was called him out in his first two AB's on pitches way out of the zone, forcing him to swing at bad pitches, then, he faced Greinke, Baumgardner, and Cain.

I just think it's way too soon to be making any judgements about Rolen.

He's been bad for a long time now and this year has been even worse. 125ish PAs is small, but it's not that small when you consider how bad last year was.

[oregonred]

Without the late Rolen scratch, probably a 3-0 shutout for the Giants today. Also a nice pick by Frazier early in the game.

Frazier continues to impress which is the lone bright spot from today's painful result. Actually we have two, Ludwick continues to be more than adequate out in LF given the lack of other options for the time being.

[oneupper]

Stubbs went 0 for San Francisco. (14 ABs). Anyone want to wager how he finishes the trip?
Drew has terrible away splits (.648 OPS lifetime). That's approaching Juan Castro territory.

[reds44]

Stubbs isn't any good either.

*Insert Homer Bailey post about his WAR here*