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View Full Version : Make Your Best Offer: Carlos Quentin



Benihana
06-18-2012, 11:45 AM
Maybe the only true, cleanup hitting LF that will definitely be on the trade market. FA-to-be so no real contract concerns- all it will come down to is the talent a team is willing to give up. So...

What is the absolute best offer you would make for Carlos Quentin?

Benihana
06-18-2012, 11:55 AM
nm

thatcoolguy_22
06-18-2012, 12:12 PM
Ludwick, Sulbaran, and Cingrani with the Pads throwing in a prospect in their 18-25 range.

jhu1321
06-18-2012, 12:55 PM
The only serious offer I'd make for anyone would be Willingham. I don't think a rented, injury prone Carlos Quentin helps this team much.

For Willingham I'd offer Heisey, a bullpen arm and one of Cingrani(sp?) or Corcino.

lidspinner
06-18-2012, 01:11 PM
Heisey and a bullpen arm and not a penny more.....Chris would start right away and they would love his defense..I am not sure who they would need from our pen but I would send Sam L and not think twice. we have Bill and Nick coming back soon and I think Simon can handle the long relief role just fine.

I think it would take more than that but that is all I would be willing to give up for a rental. Heisey will flourish in that big outfield in SD.

bucksfan2
06-18-2012, 01:23 PM
The only serious offer I'd make for anyone would be Willingham. I don't think a rented, injury prone Carlos Quentin helps this team much.

For Willingham I'd offer Heisey, a bullpen arm and one of Cingrani(sp?) or Corcino.

The Twins signed Willingham to a multi year contract, I don't really expect them to cut bait on him that soon.

As of right now Quentin and DeJesus will be moved because their teams aren't going anywhere. As the deadline approaches more teams will be willing to trade players. The player I would target is Victorino, a guy who is a switch hitter, won't see a decline in D from the LF spot, and has some playoff experience.

Vottomatic
06-18-2012, 01:44 PM
The only serious offer I'd make for anyone would be Willingham. I don't think a rented, injury prone Carlos Quentin helps this team much.

For Willingham I'd offer Heisey, a bullpen arm and one of Cingrani(sp?) or Corcino.

I disagree. Quentin is a free agent next season and will want to stay healthy and produce for his next free agent signing.

Stubbs, Sulbaran, Neftali Soto.

No way am I trading Corcino and Cingrani for a rental. Nor am I trading Lutz or Hamilton.

Barring a huge trade for some stud under control, my untouchables are Hamilton, Lutz, Vidal, Stephenson, Travieso, Cingrani, Corcino, and Joseph. Unless I've forgotten someone, everyone else is fair game.

reds44
06-18-2012, 01:48 PM
It's going to take a package of prospect I don't want the Reds to give up. I don't want to leave the system that depleted.

If Stubbs, Sulbaran, Neftali Soto got it done, I'd be all over that.

PuffyPig
06-18-2012, 01:56 PM
I'd be shocked if Stubbs alone wouldn't get it done.

jhu1321
06-18-2012, 02:10 PM
The Twins signed Willingham to a multi year contract, I don't really expect them to cut bait on him that soon.

As of right now Quentin and DeJesus will be moved because their teams aren't going anywhere. As the deadline approaches more teams will be willing to trade players. The player I would target is Victorino, a guy who is a switch hitter, won't see a decline in D from the LF spot, and has some playoff experience.

Not suggesting they would cut bait but since they're losing I think they may be willing to trade some older guy's for a package of prospects...... especially pitchers.

bucksfan2
06-18-2012, 02:50 PM
It's going to take a package of prospect I don't want the Reds to give up. I don't want to leave the system that depleted.

If Stubbs, Sulbaran, Neftali Soto got it done, I'd be all over that.

I am ok with moving some prospects not named Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, or any of the two previous 1st round picks. But getting a guy like Quentin who in all liklihood will be a top tier FA next season will also help with rebuilding the farm. I am not exactly sure of the comp picks but I would imagine they would be rather high.

I think the Reds have a shot this season, a legit shot. If they are going to make a move I want to see it be a substantial move. I don't want to see the team hold tight or hope that guys turn it around. I want something bold and something that makes everyone else in the league turn their heads.

RedsManRick
06-18-2012, 02:53 PM
I'd give them 1 B level prospect, say Henry Rodriguez (who doesn't have a position in Cincy with Phillips signed). I don't think Quentin is nearly the upgrade that it seems some others do. He's maybe a 1 win upgrade over Heisey/Ludwick in my book. Maybe.

bucksfan2
06-18-2012, 03:14 PM
I'd give them 1 B level prospect, say Henry Rodriguez (who doesn't have a position in Cincy with Phillips signed). I don't think Quentin is nearly the upgrade that it seems some others do. He's maybe a 1 win upgrade over Heisey/Ludwick in my book. Maybe.

What does a hot Quentin do in a 5 or 7 games playoff series?

dougdirt
06-18-2012, 03:15 PM
I am ok with moving some prospects not named Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, or any of the two previous 1st round picks. But getting a guy like Quentin who in all liklihood will be a top tier FA next season will also help with rebuilding the farm. I am not exactly sure of the comp picks but I would imagine they would be rather high.

I think the Reds have a shot this season, a legit shot. If they are going to make a move I want to see it be a substantial move. I don't want to see the team hold tight or hope that guys turn it around. I want something bold and something that makes everyone else in the league turn their heads.

You can no longer get a compensation pick for a player who did not spend the entire season with your team.

bucksfan2
06-18-2012, 03:17 PM
You can no longer get a compensation pick for a player who did not spend the entire season with your team.

Well thats stupid! And it throws my theory out the window. I still would make a move on Quentin regardless of comp picks, just may not up my offer as much.

Vottomatic
06-18-2012, 03:21 PM
I'd give them 1 B level prospect, say Henry Rodriguez (who doesn't have a position in Cincy with Phillips signed). I don't think Quentin is nearly the upgrade that it seems some others do. He's maybe a 1 win upgrade over Heisey/Ludwick in my book. Maybe.

Stubbs, Sulbaran, Rodriguez, Neftali Soto, Lotzkar, for Quentin & Headley.

mattfeet
06-18-2012, 03:33 PM
I saw today on MLBTR that someone was saying it'd be smart for the Rockies to part ways with CarGo and field offers. It'd take the farm to bring CarGo to Cincinnati, but that'd be an epic outfield and a huge addition to the lineup.

Scrap Irony
06-18-2012, 03:47 PM
Frazier's OPSing 914, and you want to replace him?

Tough crowd.

I'd trade Stubbs or Heisey (their pick) and any prospect not named Hamilton, Cingrani, or Corcino for him. (Lutz would be hard to let go, but I'd gamble the Pads would be worried about his age and that it's the California League. Henry Rodriguez would be tough to let go as well, but his injury should keep him protected a bit as well.)

The Pads have a young and fairly talented infield, assuming everyone works out:
C Grandal
1B Alonso
2B Forsythe
SS E. Cabrara
3B Headley

Jedd Gyorko is in AAA, OPSing 900+, playing both 3B and 2B.

Add in under 30 corner OFs Venable and Quentin and CF Maybin, and they're not too far off competing offensively-- one maybe two years, and they'll be knocking on the Dodger's door. Their pitching has struggled pretty much across the board this year and doesn't look all that impressive in the high minors (Casey Kelly excepted) either. I'm guessing Corcino or Cingrani would have to be a centerpiece for San Diego. Plus, because hitting looks to be a premium this year, they'd also demand a wildcard or closer candidate.

Were I the Cincinnati GM, I'd offer:

Stubbs, Donnie Joseph, Pedro Villareal, and Lotzkar/ Stephenson/ Sulburan
for
Quentin and Chris Denorfia

Quentin plays LF full-time (with Ludwick as a capable back-up for both he and Bruce) and hits cleanup. Heisey and Denorfia split CF duties.

Phillips 2B
Cozart SS
Votto 1B
Quentin LF
Bruce RF
Frazier/ Rolen 3B
Heisey/ Denorfia CF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2012, 03:59 PM
Have you guys looked at Quentin's stats the last few years?

Adding on what RMR said, the guy is probably a very modest upgrade. That's worth something, but for the prospects people are talking about, I would expect quite a bit more return for that.

RedsManRick
06-18-2012, 04:19 PM
What does a hot Quentin do in a 5 or 7 games playoff series?

Roughly the same as a hot Heisey or Ludwick. Trading for a guy because he might get hot strikes me as a pretty poor justification. Every player carries with him the chance he might get hot at some point.

mattfeet
06-18-2012, 04:24 PM
Have you guys looked at Quentin's stats the last few years?

Adding on what RMR said, the guy is probably a very modest upgrade. That's worth something, but for the prospects people are talking about, I would expect quite a bit more return for that.

Agreed. :beerme:

Vottomatic
06-18-2012, 04:26 PM
Have you guys looked at Quentin's stats the last few years?

Adding on what RMR said, the guy is probably a very modest upgrade. That's worth something, but for the prospects people are talking about, I would expect quite a bit more return for that.

Quentin has plenty of incentive. He's a free agent at the end of the season and should try and stay healthy and produce. Best time to pick up a guy is when they're playing for their next big payday. :thumbup:

cinreds21
06-18-2012, 04:29 PM
Isn't the point of getting Quentin is to fill an outfield hole? Trading Stubbs would just negate getting an outfielder.

Scrap Irony
06-18-2012, 04:32 PM
Have you guys looked at Quentin's stats the last few years?

Career 850 OPS with an OPS+ of 120?

Reds' LF in 2012: 702 OPS

This year, Quentin has already earned 1.7 WAR. Red LF? 0.3.

That's a game and a half improvement.

Now, I don't think Quentin is going to be this hot all year, and I expect both Heisey and Ludwick to heat up as the weather does. But Quentin is a clear upgrade with around a 100-150 OPS difference, IMO, between he and the current Red OFers.

How much are those 100-150 OPS points worth in wins?

Scrap Irony
06-18-2012, 04:37 PM
Isn't the point of getting Quentin is to fill an outfield hole? Trading Stubbs would just negate getting an outfielder.

At this point, Stubbs and Heisey are peas in a pod. With Valdez capable of caddying either, having both on the team is redundant. Since Stubbs has more trade value, he's the one that needs to go.

dougdirt
06-18-2012, 04:39 PM
At this point, Stubbs and Heisey are peas in a pod. With Valdez capable of caddying either, having both on the team is redundant. Since Stubbs has more trade value, he's the one that needs to go.

The Reds value defense. They aren't trading Stubbs to replace him with Heisey.

fearofpopvol1
06-18-2012, 04:46 PM
Frazier's OPSing 914, and you want to replace him?

Tough crowd.

I'd trade Stubbs or Heisey (their pick) and any prospect not named Hamilton, Cingrani, or Corcino for him. (Lutz would be hard to let go, but I'd gamble the Pads would be worried about his age and that it's the California League. Henry Rodriguez would be tough to let go as well, but his injury should keep him protected a bit as well.)

The Pads have a young and fairly talented infield, assuming everyone works out:
C Grandal
1B Alonso
2B Forsythe
SS E. Cabrara
3B Headley

Jedd Gyorko is in AAA, OPSing 900+, playing both 3B and 2B.

Add in under 30 corner OFs Venable and Quentin and CF Maybin, and they're not too far off competing offensively-- one maybe two years, and they'll be knocking on the Dodger's door. Their pitching has struggled pretty much across the board this year and doesn't look all that impressive in the high minors (Casey Kelly excepted) either. I'm guessing Corcino or Cingrani would have to be a centerpiece for San Diego. Plus, because hitting looks to be a premium this year, they'd also demand a wildcard or closer candidate.

Were I the Cincinnati GM, I'd offer:

Stubbs, Donnie Joseph, Pedro Villareal, and Lotzkar/ Stephenson/ Sulburan
for
Quentin and Chris Denorfia

Quentin plays LF full-time (with Ludwick as a capable back-up for both he and Bruce) and hits cleanup. Heisey and Denorfia split CF duties.

Phillips 2B
Cozart SS
Votto 1B
Quentin LF
Bruce RF
Frazier/ Rolen 3B
Heisey/ Denorfia CF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C

It is very unlikely Frazier maintains his .900+ OPS. His career OPS in the minors was .827 and in Louisville, it was under .800. He's obviously on fire and Dusty should play his bat until he cools off, but we're not likely looking at a .900 OPS bat here for the long term.

Patrick Bateman
06-18-2012, 04:46 PM
Career 850 OPS with an OPS+ of 120?

Reds' LF in 2012: 702 OPS

This year, Quentin has already earned 1.7 WAR. Red LF? 0.3.

That's a game and a half improvement.

Now, I don't think Quentin is going to be this hot all year, and I expect both Heisey and Ludwick to heat up as the weather does. But Quentin is a clear upgrade with around a 100-150 OPS difference, IMO, between he and the current Red OFers.

How much are those 100-150 OPS points worth in wins?

His most recent 3 seasons prior to this he averaged 0.7 WAR per season. He's been an okay hitter for LF with just heinous defense.

Unless you think he is repeating his magical 2008 season, then it's hard to justify Quentin IMO. His surge to start the season that he might be regaining that form, especially with his walk rate being at a comparable rate to 2008, however, it is 65 at-bats, and for me, that one surge is not enough to override 3 pretty dismal seasons, especially when it means giving up some of the Reds' top prospects for a 1 year rental. I don't think some of you are realizing just how awful he has been the last 3 seasons. Why are his most recent 65 at-bats such a better predictor of the remainder of the season than the 1500 before that?

Just not adding up for me. I think there's a chance he's an upgrade, but I don't think it's a significant upgrade. Considering the additional salary andf prospects required, I would look elsewhere unless he was essentially handed to us.

PuffyPig
06-18-2012, 04:47 PM
At this point, Stubbs and Heisey are peas in a pod. With Valdez capable of caddying either, having both on the team is redundant. Since Stubbs has more trade value, he's the one that needs to go.

Valdez?

Stubbs does not need to go anywhere. He's certainly not untouchable, but he doesn't need to go either.

PuffyPig
06-18-2012, 04:48 PM
Quentin has plenty of incentive. He's a free agent at the end of the season and should try and stay healthy and produce. Best time to pick up a guy is when they're playing for their next big payday. :thumbup:

I hadn't realized that the secret of staying healthy was simply "trying". I'm glad the Cards haven't figured out that little nugget.

Homer Bailey
06-18-2012, 04:55 PM
I can't believe what some of you guys are willing to offer up for a few months of Carlos Quentin.

reds44
06-18-2012, 05:00 PM
This goes for anybody: if the Reds could trade Stubbs for Quentin straight up, would anybody say no?

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Quentin
Bruce
Rolen/Frazier
Heisey
Catcher

PuffyPig
06-18-2012, 05:03 PM
This year, Quentin has already earned 1.7 WAR. Red LF? 0.3.

That's a game and a half improvement.



Quentin's BAPIP this year is about 150 points above his career average. His HR/FB rate is about 150% above his career average.

He's had quite the little 50 AB run this year and good for him, but there is zero chance that will continue. There is nothing about his game this year that has really improved other than his luck. Let some other sucker give up 4 players to see if that will continue.

I'd suggest his last 3 years is a better judge of his talent. He's basically a replacement level player.

westofyou
06-18-2012, 05:07 PM
I can't believe what some of you guys are willing to offer up for a few months of Carlos Quentin.

Who is as likely to end up in the trainers room as he is in LF

757690
06-18-2012, 05:10 PM
This goes for anybody: if the Reds could trade Stubbs for Quentin straight up, would anybody say no?

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Quentin
Bruce
Rolen/Frazier
Heisey
Catcher

:wave:

Homer Bailey
06-18-2012, 05:20 PM
This goes for anybody: if the Reds could trade Stubbs for Quentin straight up, would anybody say no?

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Quentin
Bruce
Rolen/Frazier
Heisey
Catcher

2009-2012:

Stubbs: 8.5 WAR
Quentin: 3.8 WAR

Age

Stubbs: 28
Quentin: 30

Control:

Stubbs: 3 more years after 2012
Quentin: 0 more years after 2012

2012 Salary:

Stubbs: $527,500
Quentin: $7,025,000

ZIPS projects Stubbs to post a 1.3 WAR for the remainder of the season, and a 1.5 WAR for Quentin. I would easily say no to that trade.

klw
06-18-2012, 05:38 PM
I think my best offer would be in the range of Phipps and a AA midlevel arm or 2 (not a top 20 prospect). I am not giving up a Zach Wheeler equivalent to get him. If that is the price, pass.

_Sir_Charles_
06-18-2012, 05:48 PM
This goes for anybody: if the Reds could trade Stubbs for Quentin straight up, would anybody say no?

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Quentin
Bruce
Rolen/Frazier
Heisey
Catcher

I would say no. Quentin is okay, but I don't see him as a difference maker. And you're throwing away several years of Stubbs for a couple of months of Quentin.

Personally, I think the offense if fine. It's just organized poorly.

RedlegJake
06-18-2012, 05:58 PM
I'd say no in a heartbeat. Quentin is having a career year that he'll never repeat, Stubbs is under team control for three more years, Quentin will walk at the end of the year. Not only No HECK NO

_Sir_Charles_
06-18-2012, 06:06 PM
At this point, Stubbs and Heisey are peas in a pod. With Valdez capable of caddying either, having both on the team is redundant. Since Stubbs has more trade value, he's the one that needs to go.

I'm kinda stunned by this one. Valdez has a halfway decent WEEK and he's all of a sudden capable of backing up CF? After like 2 games of experience?

I don't care what one week tells anybody, but IMO Valdez is Paul Janish with less defense.

And as for trading away an outfielder, first off I don't think we can or should...we're pretty thin there. Secondly, if we're going to trade one away, then it should be the older player with less upside. And that's Ludwick. People are talking in this thread like the 2012 Reds are a 1 and done team. That we have this one year window to win it all so we should go for broke. I'm sorry, I don't feel that way AT ALL. I'm not dealing away our young talent for moderate upgrades when the net result is us being worse over the long haul. If we're going to trade away long-term players, we need to either get long-term talent in return OR substantial upgrades for the NOW.

Quentin would not be a target for me simply put.

_Sir_Charles_
06-18-2012, 06:12 PM
Quentin's BAPIP this year is about 150 points above his career average. His HR/FB rate is about 150% above his career average.

He's had quite the little 50 AB run this year and good for him, but there is zero chance that will continue. There is nothing about his game this year that has really improved other than his luck. Let some other sucker give up 4 players to see if that will continue.

I'd suggest his last 3 years is a better judge of his talent. He's basically a replacement level player.

Personally, I think this is exactly what the Padres are hoping another GM will do. Look at his CURRENT stats and think it'll continue. I hope Walt doesn't bite.

kaldaniels
06-18-2012, 06:13 PM
2009-2012:

Stubbs: 8.5 WAR
Quentin: 3.8 WAR

Age

Stubbs: 28
Quentin: 30

Control:

Stubbs: 3 more years after 2012
Quentin: 0 more years after 2012

2012 Salary:

Stubbs: $527,500
Quentin: $7,025,000

ZIPS projects Stubbs to post a 1.3 WAR for the remainder of the season, and a 1.5 WAR for Quentin. I would easily say no to that trade.

Simple but nice analysis.

_Sir_Charles_
06-18-2012, 06:15 PM
Simple but nice analysis.

Yep. Homer wins the internets today. :D

PuffyPig
06-18-2012, 06:52 PM
2009-2012:

Stubbs: 8.5 WAR
Quentin: 3.8 WAR

Age

Stubbs: 28
Quentin: 30

Control:

Stubbs: 3 more years after 2012
Quentin: 0 more years after 2012

2012 Salary:

Stubbs: $527,500
Quentin: $7,025,000

ZIPS projects Stubbs to post a 1.3 WAR for the remainder of the season, and a 1.5 WAR for Quentin. I would easily say no to that trade.

Boom!!!!

RedsManRick
06-18-2012, 07:17 PM
Career 850 OPS with an OPS+ of 120?

Reds' LF in 2012: 702 OPS

This year, Quentin has already earned 1.7 WAR. Red LF? 0.3.

That's a game and a half improvement.

Now, I don't think Quentin is going to be this hot all year, and I expect both Heisey and Ludwick to heat up as the weather does. But Quentin is a clear upgrade with around a 100-150 OPS difference, IMO, between he and the current Red OFers.

How much are those 100-150 OPS points worth in wins?

Unfortunately we get his performance from the point at which we acquire him and beyond. We don't get his stats thus far, which are based on a .405 BABIP and a LD% way out of line with anything he's done before. There's no doubt he's a better hitter than any of our current CF/LF options. But, as you note, he's not even close to as good as he's been so far this year and he's mediocre at best defensively.

ZiPS projects him for 1.5 WAR for the rest of the season over 247 PA. It projects Heisey for 0.7 WAR in 263, Ludwick for 0.8 in 306, Stubbs for 1.3 in 379 and Todd Frazier for 1.0 in 319.

Unless Quentin has reached a new level of sustainable performance, which I know you're not arguing, replacing some amalgam of that group gives a little less than an 1 extra win. That's upgrading from the projected OPSs of .747 (Hesiey), .746 (Ludwick), .694 (Stubbs), .760 (Frazier) to Quentin's .846. Give Quentin the benefit of the doubt from the park effects and we can round up to a whole win.

In any event, he's nothing like a game changer. He's almost the definition of a marginal upgrade. I have no problem making upgrades like that, but you don't give away the farm for them.

Griffey012
06-18-2012, 07:29 PM
I can't believe what some of you guys are willing to offer up for a few months of Carlos Quentin.

Where is the Redszone like button?

wheels
06-18-2012, 07:35 PM
They need to be looking for non descript, lefty bats with on base skills, not oft injured, slightly overvalued righties.

RedsManRick
06-18-2012, 07:46 PM
They need to be looking for non descript, lefty bats with on base skills, not oft injured, slightly overvalued righties.

Unfortunately, there aren't too many of those. Basically narrows it down to DeJesus and maybe Denard Span as guys who are likely available, lefties and can get on base.

wheels
06-18-2012, 09:04 PM
Unfortunately, there aren't too many of those. Basically narrows it down to DeJesus and maybe Denard Span as guys who are likely available, lefties and can get on base.

Yeah. I know. Thing is, anyone else they can get is kind of a redundancy. Quentin especially.

I wonder what the Twins would ask in return for Span. He'd be a near perfect fit.

mth123
06-18-2012, 09:13 PM
They need to be looking for non descript, lefty bats with on base skills, not oft injured, slightly overvalued righties.

Differing from an earlier post, but you win the internets today.

mth123
06-18-2012, 09:17 PM
Unfortunately, there aren't too many of those. Basically narrows it down to DeJesus and maybe Denard Span as guys who are likely available, lefties and can get on base.

Will Venable, Seth Smith

HokieRed
06-18-2012, 09:25 PM
I think we have one trade in us, and, as much as I'd like to have an outfielder, particularly a left handed hitting one, I think we have a greater need: a starter. We have Cueto on pace to pitch 230 innings, having never gone beyond 178 (IIRC) and Bailey on pace to pitch 200, having never thrown more than 132. That situation in itself would call for some serious consideration as to the need to acquire depth, even if we had entire confidence in the other three--and Latos, with his near 5 ERA and the inconsistent Leake have hardly justified such confidence. We're going to need, IMHO, at least two more arms to get through this thing and win a spot in the playoffs, which I'd be willing to gamble we have enough offense to do. Chapman's not really going to be an alternative; it'll take too long to get him built up to being able to start and he's simple too essential in the pen. The other choices are LeCure and Simon, and I suspect we'll need one of those, or Brett Tomko or Villareal. This is probably a contrarian opinion, but I think we'll need a starter more than we will need outfield help.

dougdirt
06-18-2012, 10:15 PM
I think we have one trade in us, and, as much as I'd like to have an outfielder, particularly a left handed hitting one, I think we have a greater need: a starter. We have Cueto on pace to pitch 230 innings, having never gone beyond 178 (IIRC) and Bailey on pace to pitch 200, having never thrown more than 132. That situation in itself would call for some serious consideration as to the need to acquire depth, even if we had entire confidence in the other three--and Latos, with his near 5 ERA and the inconsistent Leake have hardly justified such confidence. We're going to need, IMHO, at least two more arms to get through this thing and win a spot in the playoffs, which I'd be willing to gamble we have enough offense to do. Chapman's not really going to be an alternative; it'll take too long to get him built up to being able to start and he's simple too essential in the pen. The other choices are LeCure and Simon, and I suspect we'll need one of those, or Brett Tomko or Villareal. This is probably a contrarian opinion, but I think we'll need a starter more than we will need outfield help.

Bailey has thrown 203 in a season before, just split it between the Majors and Minors. Cueto has gone up to 185.

HokieRed
06-18-2012, 11:41 PM
Bailey has thrown 203 in a season before, just split it between the Majors and Minors. Cueto has gone up to 185.

Point still stands, IMO, though I should have caught this on Bailey. I'm a lot more concerned with having to go, say, for a significant period of time with a rotation of one of Bailey/Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Tomko, and Latos than with the marginal upgrade of a Seth Smith or DeJesus over Ludwick.

REDREAD
06-19-2012, 10:19 AM
I'd be shocked if Stubbs alone wouldn't get it done.

I agree. The Padres would jump all over that.
I would not trade Stubbs. I might trade Hiesey, but I would be uncomfortable doing so (and probably wouldn't).
Right now, Ludwick is doing ok in LF after his horrible start.
Frasier might get some time in LF if Rolen is healthy.
I just don't see a sense of urgency to get a rental like Quentin.
I'm guessing at the trade deadline, a simliar bat to Quentin will be available relatively cheap.. no need to panic at all here.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2012, 10:25 AM
The Reds are one organization that has been very conservative at the deadline. It seems they like to make deals in the off-season, and stick with that. I doubt Walt has any plan on replacing Ludwick. He's been pretty much what Walt expected. His OPS is actually up compared to where it was the last few years and he plays solid D in LF. He's also been hot of late.

I'm just trying to put myself in Walt's shoes knowing his tendencies and I would say he doesn't make a significant move at the deadline.

I think many are getting their hopes up again.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2012, 11:18 AM
I'd trade Stubbs twice if the Pads would let me. For Quentin? Are you serious?

The difference between Stubbs and Heisey is a step or two on the bases and a handful of stolen bases. If you can get a guy worth a game (or two) for a redundant part, you take it.

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2012, 11:27 AM
I'd trade Stubbs twice if the Pads would let me. For Quentin? Are you serious?

The difference between Stubbs and Heisey is a step or two on the bases and a handful of stolen bases. If you can get a guy worth a game (or two) for a redundant part, you take it.

Are you just ignoring every post that shows that three years running Quentin has been an inferior player to Stubbs? He's also more expensive and there is no future control over him?

What makes ou think his most recent 65 plate appearances outweigh those facts?

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2012, 11:27 AM
Differing from an earlier post, but you win the internets today.

I got vetoed?!? I didn't know you had that kind of pull mth? :p

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2012, 11:31 AM
I think we have one trade in us, and, as much as I'd like to have an outfielder, particularly a left handed hitting one, I think we have a greater need: a starter. We have Cueto on pace to pitch 230 innings, having never gone beyond 178 (IIRC) and Bailey on pace to pitch 200, having never thrown more than 132. That situation in itself would call for some serious consideration as to the need to acquire depth, even if we had entire confidence in the other three--and Latos, with his near 5 ERA and the inconsistent Leake have hardly justified such confidence. We're going to need, IMHO, at least two more arms to get through this thing and win a spot in the playoffs, which I'd be willing to gamble we have enough offense to do. Chapman's not really going to be an alternative; it'll take too long to get him built up to being able to start and he's simple too essential in the pen. The other choices are LeCure and Simon, and I suspect we'll need one of those, or Brett Tomko or Villareal. This is probably a contrarian opinion, but I think we'll need a starter more than we will need outfield help.

We do have a few arms in Louisville, but as I mentioned somewhere else, I'd be in favor of sending Simon, Hoover AND LeCure down to Louisville once Bray and Masset come back. LeCure I'd stretch back out into a starter. I agree that we need some depth there. IIRC both Hoover & Simon also started. It might be wise to stretch one of them out too. Of course, in a perfect world, we'd remove Aroldis from the closers role and re-stretch HIM out instead. I just don't see that happening until next off-season...IF then.

As for a trade...no, I wouldn't go that route. I don't think we have the pieces to pull off a trade right now. We don't want to completely gut the system.

Nasty_Boy
06-19-2012, 01:38 PM
I'm in no hurry to get Stubbs out of CF... While Heisey is a capable player, he's no where near Stubbs defensively. And they are very comparable to each other at the plate... Trading Stubbs for Quentin is not a smart move for this franchise. Quentin is a DL stint waiting to happen and I have no faith that he would continue to hit or even out hit the production that you're getting from Ludwick, Heisey, and Frazier (now that Rolen is back). Moving him for Span may not be a bad idea, but I would hesitate until I know that Hamilton can play CF... I just don't have faith in Heisey playing the defense the Reds need in CF.

PuffyPig
06-19-2012, 01:54 PM
We do have a few arms in Louisville, but as I mentioned somewhere else, I'd be in favor of sending Simon, Hoover AND LeCure down to Louisville once Bray and Masset come back.

I assume Simon is out of options, which is the only reason why the Orioles didn't send him down.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2012, 02:48 PM
Are you just ignoring every post that shows that three years running Quentin has been an inferior player to Stubbs? He's also more expensive and there is no future control over him?

What makes ou think his most recent 65 plate appearances outweigh those facts?

I thought I'd made my case very clearly. It's not so much Stubbs v. Quentin-- it's Stubbs v. Heisey AND Quentin v. 2012 Red LF.

Stubbs v. Heisey
Claim: Heisey is an equal to Stubbs (or at least so close as for it not to matter all that much).

Proof 1: If a better LF were acquired, Heisey would not play much, though his OPS+ has been above 100 both years he's played full years in the majors.

Proof 2: Heisey also showed major improvement from one year to the next, going from a 101 OPS+ to a 113 OPS+. Stubbs, meanwhile, has gone backward three years in a row and shows little sign of the ability to adjust.

Proof 3: As an OF, Heisey has graded out as having saved six runs above average in one metric (Total Zone) and is + 3.2 (UZR/ 150) in the other over the course of his career. Stubbs has graded out at 0 and 1.7 respectfully. They're pretty much the same, despite how graceful Stubbs looks and how unorthodox Heisey may seem.

Proof 4: Stubbs is likely to be a fairly expensive arbitration sign, while Heisey should not be as expensive. As Latos, Bailey, Chapman, and others become more expensive, this becomes a matter of millions.

Quentin v. Red LF
Claim: Quentin is a solid 1.0 - 1.5 win improvement over current Red LF options, Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey.

Proof 1: Quentin, over the course of his career is a poor fielder. However, he was injured for both seasons in which he played remarkably poorly in the field. Last year, he played above average as a defender. BIS says he's -9 runs as a LF. That's bad, true. But it's not like he's Adam Dunn out there. Nor is he Jonny Gomes. Over the course of a year, he's seven runs worse than Ryan Ludwick.

Proof 2: As poor as his defense has supposedly been, his offense would really benefit the team. His wOBA (career) is .367. Ludwick's is .337. Heisey's is less than that.

Proof 3: Quentin is willing to take a walk. His obp is more than .350 career-- the Red platoon duo is less than .300. How much are those extra 50 times on base worth ahead of Bruce, Fraziolen, and Mesigan?

Proof 4: Quentin has a lifetime slugging percentage of .500. As a cleanup hitter, that would rank him well behind Votto, but ahead of everyone else on the Red team by a substantial margin, including one Jay Bruce. His career line is Jay Bruce, circa 2010. (A bit better, in fact.) 2012 Red cleanup hitters have combined for a .742 mark. Quentin owns a career OPS of .850.

Proof 5: ZiPS projections put Quentin at a 3.2 WAR this year. with an OPS above .950. Ludwick and Heisey together are projected at 2.0 (Ludwick at 1.5 with Heisey at 0.5).

kaldaniels
06-19-2012, 03:11 PM
In your "proof" Scrap, you appear to hold Stubbs 2012 against him but you ignore Heisey's 2012.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2012, 03:51 PM
How am I doing that? Stubbs went from a very good 2010 to a poor 2011.

Heisey went from a good 2010 to a very good 2011.

Both are poor so far in 2012.

Stubbs, at this point = Heisey

REDREAD
06-19-2012, 04:12 PM
How am I doing that? Stubbs went from a very good 2010 to a poor 2011.

Heisey went from a good 2010 to a very good 2011.

Both are poor so far in 2012.

Stubbs, at this point = Heisey

I'm not dismissing your arguement, but another thing to consider is overall OF depth. It's nice to have both Stubbs and Heisey on the roster. We got extremely lucky that Valdez went on a hot streak when he started in CF.

Quentin is injury prone, older, and probably won't maintain this hot pace. He's also a poor defender. He's a one year rental, and would add 6-7 million to this year's payroll (That seems to negate any worry about Stubbs future salary. Next year, Stubbs makes maybe 2-3 million at the most unless he has a breakout season. That's affordable, IMO).

If you really want to trade Stubbs, you could get a lot more than Quentin for him.

By the time the season is over, I don't think Quentin will give us more production out of LF than the Ludwick/Heisey combo. At least not a significant increase. IF the Reds could get him for a B prospect, then sure.
But I'm not giving up a starting player for Quentin.

kaldaniels
06-19-2012, 04:17 PM
How am I doing that? Stubbs went from a very good 2010 to a poor 2011.

Heisey went from a good 2010 to a very good 2011.

Both are poor so far in 2012.

Stubbs, at this point = Heisey

If presented with your proof alone you make it seem like Stubbs is declining and Heisey is improving.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2012, 05:04 PM
How is that not the case?

Stubbs went from a 96 to a 105 to an 86 OPS+ in his three seasons in Cincinnati. Overall, he's a 94 OPS+ bat.

Heisey went from a 101 to a 113 OPS+ and has a career OPS+ of 99.

So, to sum up:
Heisey's the better hitter by a fair margin.
Stubbs is far better on the basepaths.
They're pretty much equal with the glove.

dougdirt
06-19-2012, 05:10 PM
They're pretty much equal with the glove.

They aren't close with the glove. Stubbs is significantly better.

Patrick Bateman
06-19-2012, 05:17 PM
In the end, I don't think the OF situation needs a complete overhaul... it just needs some pieces moving around. In total, Ludwick, Stubbs, Heisey... you can shake 'em up in a bag, and whatever comes out will likely come out the same. The overall talent level is fair, but they compliment each other terribly.

Ludwick has the least value because he offers nothing to a rebuilding team, due to age, term, and salary.

Leaves one of Heisey/Stubbs who should probably be moved for a comparable player that fits the side of the platoon a little better (or perhaps trade up for a better player). I'd feel more comfortable moving heisey because he probably isn't a big splits guy, unlike Stubbs, whom we can play more strategically to give us a good match-up.

Span makes some sense, although he doesn't have identifgiable splits, he is one of the few guys on the market who can get on base vs. righties and field adequately in CF. Not hige on Dejusus because of the inability to handle CF. A guy like Smith helps out LF, but does not solve CF unless you think Heisey can hit .770 OPS in CF to make up for his fielding deficiencies.

I would recommend a trade of Heisey + a decent prospect for Span. Span and Stubbs can form a fanatisc platoon in CF, with high OBP and fielding. When a lefty pitches, Span and Ludwick can duke out LF. When a righty pitches, Stubbs hits the bench, whereas Span and Ludwick are not compeltely dreadful vs. righties.

Depending on the value of the prospect, should work for the Twins to get an immediate placeholder who has some value to a team that gets some cheaper cost certainty that can play in the OF situation, and get some kind of reasonable prospect depending on what the market dictates.

Vottomatic
06-19-2012, 05:25 PM
I think OBP is being ignored in your Stubbs/Heisey debate. This team needs hitters with higher OBP badly. Stubbs simply K's way too much. So does Heisey. I'd argue the entire team does, but that's for another day.

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2012, 05:38 PM
I assume Simon is out of options, which is the only reason why the Orioles didn't send him down.

Could be. I have no clue what the option status is on either Simon OR Hoover.

REDREAD
06-19-2012, 05:40 PM
Could be. I have no clue what the option status is on either Simon OR Hoover.

I remember at the time of the trade, it was said that Hoover had 3 options.

I am fairly certain that Simon is out of options. But I can't say with 100% confidence.

Vottomatic
06-19-2012, 05:40 PM
I assume Simon is out of options, which is the only reason why the Orioles didn't send him down.

Is Latos out of options?

D'OH!!! :D

_Sir_Charles_
06-19-2012, 05:53 PM
They aren't close with the glove. Stubbs is significantly better.

He's going by some defensive metric. I, for one, am constantly amazed at how far off those are to the naked eye. I'm not saying that they're "wrong", but they certainly don't seem right either. I agree with you that Stubbs is a LOT better defensively than Heisey.

RedsManRick
06-19-2012, 05:56 PM
They aren't close with the glove. Stubbs is significantly better.

Doug, what do you make of UZR seeing Stubbs as a league average CF?

kaldaniels
06-19-2012, 10:15 PM
How is that not the case?

Stubbs went from a 96 to a 105 to an 86 OPS+ in his three seasons in Cincinnati. Overall, he's a 94 OPS+ bat.

Heisey went from a 101 to a 113 OPS+ and has a career OPS+ of 99.

So, to sum up:
Heisey's the better hitter by a fair margin.
Stubbs is far better on the basepaths.
They're pretty much equal with the glove.

Stubbs has a higher OPS+ in 2012, something you are glossing over in your data which was built to support Heisey.

Scrap Irony
06-19-2012, 10:21 PM
It's fairly early yet in 2012, and they're close enough that one or two games could change things.

It's not worth talking about, in other words.

As to the defensive claim about Stubbs' superiority, I keep seeing that. But the numbers say different. Perhaps there's a bias there?

kaldaniels
06-19-2012, 10:26 PM
If you want your data to have legs Scrap, somehow Heisey's "falling off a cliff" this season needs to be addressed somehow. Where is the power (which has really lowered his ops)?

Scrap Irony
06-20-2012, 12:12 AM
Why does it need to be addressed, kal, when the season's not even half over?

One good game moves him past Stubbs, at this point. A hot week, and he's near career numbers.

Admittedly, Heisey has been a disappointment offensively this season. So has Stubbs. They're equally as bad.

Since Stubbs seems to have much more trade value, then, why not deal the crap for something better?

kaldaniels
06-20-2012, 12:48 AM
Proof 2: Heisey also showed major improvement from one year to the next, going from a 101 OPS+ to a 113 OPS+. Stubbs, meanwhile, has gone backward three years in a row and shows little sign of the ability to adjust.



It is all right there in Proof 2. You dock Stubbs for his OPS+ decreasing both from 2010 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2012. Yet you award Heisey a medal for his OPS+ rising from 2010 to 2011, but ignore his drop from 2011 to 2012. What is good for the goose...

camisadelgolf
06-20-2012, 03:44 AM
I remember at the time of the trade, it was said that Hoover had 3 options.

I am fairly certain that Simon is out of options. But I can't say with 100% confidence.
Both are correct.

dougdirt
06-20-2012, 08:00 AM
Doug, what do you make of UZR seeing Stubbs as a league average CF?

I don't really know. But even if we assume it is right on Stubbs (and I am not ready to assume that, just going with it here to make a point), then Heisey is below average. Heisey doesn't get the same breaks on the ball as Stubbs and he clearly doesn't have the same amount of range as Stubbs does.

I would be interested in seeing the home/road splits on Stubbs UZR.

UZR has been funky so far this year. Michael Bourn is sitting at 11.2 right now. No one else has 4.0 in CF. Is that really going on? Bourn is nearly three times more valuable through less than half of a season than every other defender in center field? That doesn't add up for me.

Scrap Irony
06-20-2012, 12:31 PM
It's not just this year, doug. It's career numbers.

Scrap Irony
06-20-2012, 12:32 PM
It is all right there in Proof 2. You dock Stubbs for his OPS+ decreasing both from 2010 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2012. Yet you award Heisey a medal for his OPS+ rising from 2010 to 2011, but ignore his drop from 2011 to 2012. What is good for the goose...

Well... Whoops.

How about this: Stubbs has dropped from year to year and looks to be dropping yet again.

Heisey has shown a higher floor over a full season, a higher ceiling over a full season, and is sucking right now.

Topcat
06-21-2012, 06:39 AM
I rather the Reds give a good run at Todd Frazier in LF for now before I even look at Quentin as an option.

Cooper
06-21-2012, 09:32 AM
Thoughts:

1. How about going after Brian LaHair the Cubs 1st baseman.

The cubs want to bring up anthony rizzo.
Lahair hits righties well.
He's 29 years old, the cubs are looking to get younger.
LaHair played LF in the minors-he may be a butcher-oh heck, i'm sure he's a butcher but there are a fair amount of butchers in LF.
You could platoon him and play him 3 times a week and use him as a ph off the bench.
The Cubs aren't going to ask the world for a guy who's 29.

Trading for him solves their problem of too many 1st basemen and solves our problem of struggling against RH pitching.

2. I always thought Stubbs UZR was hurt by the Reds home park and shallow alleys, thus cutting down Stubbs opps. I think he could get away with playing a lot more shallow then he does based on their often being outfield overlap on balls in the alley. I got nothing to base this on- just the eyes.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 11:02 AM
Thoughts:

1. How about going after Brian LaHair the Cubs 1st baseman.

The cubs want to bring up anthony rizzo.
Lahair hits righties well.
He's 29 years old, the cubs are looking to get younger.
LaHair played LF in the minors-he may be a butcher-oh heck, i'm sure he's a butcher but there are a fair amount of butchers in LF.
You could platoon him and play him 3 times a week and use him as a ph off the bench.
The Cubs aren't going to ask the world for a guy who's 29.

Trading for him solves their problem of too many 1st basemen and solves our problem of struggling against RH pitching.

2. I always thought Stubbs UZR was hurt by the Reds home park and shallow alleys, thus cutting down Stubbs opps. I think he could get away with playing a lot more shallow then he does based on their often being outfield overlap on balls in the alley. I got nothing to base this on- just the eyes.

If the logic for the Cubs to trade LaHair is because he is a redundant 1B, how does that help the Reds?

If he can play a serviceable LF, why would the Cubs need to trade him?

With Tulowitzki now possibly out for the year or at least the next several months, I'd see if there is any chance the Reds could pry CarGo loose without surrendering Votto, Bruce, Cueto or Latos (yes, still Latos). Anyone else would be fair game.

Cooper
06-21-2012, 11:13 AM
Benihana: i addressed those issues in the post. I'm not sure why you posted those issues -unless you have more info that would clarify the issues.

PuffyPig
06-21-2012, 11:21 AM
With Tulowitzki now possibly out for the year or at least the next several months, I'd see if there is any chance the Reds could pry CarGo loose without surrendering Votto, Bruce, Cueto or Latos (yes, still Latos).


If Cueto, Latos and Bruce suddenly went down, scuttling our 2012 chances, would we suddenly try and move Votto?

CarGo is part of the Rockies plans going forward into the future, there's no reason why they would trade him just because Tulo is out 6 weeks. Or even if he's out all year).

Cooper
06-21-2012, 11:25 AM
Votto isn't going anywhere. That's not even in the realm of possibility.

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 11:26 AM
Benihana: i addressed those issues in the post. I'm not sure why you posted those issues -unless you have more info that would clarify the issues.

He's saying that if LaHair can play even a half way horrible LF, then the Cubs would probably just move him to LF on THEIR team and bring up Rizzo. He's a very solid bat it seems and they're trying to move Soriano as it is. I don't think they'd have many qualms about sitting Alfonso or moving him to another position/team.

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 11:27 AM
Votto isn't going anywhere. That's not even in the realm of possibility.

That's kinda PuffyPig's point. CarGo ain't going anywhere either.

PuffyPig
06-21-2012, 12:01 PM
Posters need to remember that just becuase teams fall out of the race they don't rush to dump their young best players, especially if they are signed long term. The Rockies are building their team around CarGO and Tulo.

Were Red fans clamouring to dump Bruce, Votto, Cueto etc. last year?

Teams out of the race look to move their FA's to be, or perhaps declining vets who they would rather be rid of their contracts.

If the Reds fell out of the race at the deadline, we'd be looking at moving Ludwick and Cairo.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 02:18 PM
If Cueto, Latos and Bruce suddenly went down, scuttling our 2012 chances, would we suddenly try and move Votto?

CarGo is part of the Rockies plans going forward into the future, there's no reason why they would trade him just because Tulo is out 6 weeks. Or even if he's out all year).

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/18/the-rockies-should-trade-carlos-gonzalez/
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/sherman-on-dempster-lee-gonzalez.html

I don't think anyone is writing that column for Votto- at least certainly not since March.

Not saying it will happen, or is necessarily even being considered by the Rockies. But...it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. If it's being discussed in major media publications, I think it's at least worth chatter on a messageboard.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 02:21 PM
Posters need to remember that just becuase teams fall out of the race they don't rush to dump their young best players, especially if they are signed long term. The Rockies are building their team around CarGO and Tulo.

Were Red fans clamouring to dump Bruce, Votto, Cueto etc. last year?

Teams out of the race look to move their FA's to be, or perhaps declining vets who they would rather be rid of their contracts.

If the Reds fell out of the race at the deadline, we'd be looking at moving Ludwick and Cairo.

Posters also need to remember that's because the Reds aren't in complete rebuild mode. If/when you are, sometimes it's worth considering moving your biggest assets, even if they are signed to a multiyear deal.

See: the Padres with Latos, the A's with Gonzalez and Haren, the Rockies with Jimenez, etc.

And FWIW, some posters need to remember that some posters on this board were in fact advocating trading Votto and/or Cueto last year.

kaldaniels
06-21-2012, 03:22 PM
Posters also need to remember that's because the Reds aren't in complete rebuild mode. If/when you are, sometimes it's worth considering moving your biggest assets, even if they are signed to a multiyear deal.

See: the Padres with Latos, the A's with Gonzalez and Haren, the Rockies with Jimenez, etc.

And FWIW, some posters need to remember that some posters on this board were in fact advocating trading Votto and/or Cueto last year.

With Votto it was discussed under the assumption that the Reds would be unable to afford him, a reasonable take at the time.

PuffyPig
06-21-2012, 04:02 PM
And FWIW, some posters need to remember that some posters on this board were in fact advocating trading Votto and/or Cueto last year.

FWIW, many posters here advocate trading everyone on a daily basis, or at least after every poor game. Votto and Cueto were unsigned at the time, apples and oranges.

The post I was referring to suggested that CarGo could be had because Tulo was injured for 6 weeks, and the Rockies were out of it. There was no suggestion that he would be traded as part of a rebuilding process. Which would make little sense anyway, as CarGo is half of the Rockies rebuilding process going forward.

Cooper
06-21-2012, 04:31 PM
The cubs are playing. 400 level baseball...their next best team is 2 or 3 years away. They need prospects, not 29 yo players who in 3 years will be worth 70% of what he is worth now. If your the cubs Gm, it seems you'd be looking for prospects and not trying to get another good year out of a career minor leaguer (im speaking of LaHair).you could potentially say "well, he's good why would a club want to give him up anyway?". My point is- that's the kind of target in a trade that might be good for both teams....but if you belie the cubs are gonna build their next good team around LaHair, you can do so, but I doubt you'd be very good in 3 tears.

bucksfan2
06-21-2012, 05:33 PM
Posters also need to remember that's because the Reds aren't in complete rebuild mode. If/when you are, sometimes it's worth considering moving your biggest assets, even if they are signed to a multiyear deal.

See: the Padres with Latos, the A's with Gonzalez and Haren, the Rockies with Jimenez, etc.

And FWIW, some posters need to remember that some posters on this board were in fact advocating trading Votto and/or Cueto last year.

Is there anyone in MLB that you haven't suggested the Reds trade for? Your the guy who often comes up with these trade ideas. It creates converstion but IMO thats about as far as most go.

First of all you have to discount the A's. For the past decade Billy Beane has been opearting as a mad scientist trying to create and advantage over other teams. His trades recently have served as head scratchers more than anything else. I don't think you can compare anyone else in MLB to Beane.

The Rockies traded Jimenez for a reason. They did exactly as everyone in baseball attempts to perfect, trade a player at their peak. They traded Jimenez for a reason, the reason being they thought he had peaked as a player.

The Padres trade of Latos may be the most comparable in that they traded a young player with a bunch of upside (we hope). While Latos has the makings of being an ace, CarGo is a perenial MVP candidate who is under contract for a number of years going forward. To me its akin to all the writers and reporters and some fans suggesting the Reds trade Votto because they couldn't extend him. They just don't have the insight into the inner workings of these clubs. If I am the Reds I would go all in for CarGo but I think the chances of the Rockies trading him are remote at best.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 05:54 PM
Is there anyone in MLB that you haven't suggested the Reds trade for? Your the guy who often comes up with these trade ideas. It creates converstion but IMO thats about as far as most go.

Isn't that the point of a messageboard? To create conversation?

I don't apologize for proposing trades that could make the Reds better, at least as long as they are within the realm of justifiable possibility.


First of all you have to discount the A's. For the past decade Billy Beane has been opearting as a mad scientist trying to create and advantage over other teams. His trades recently have served as head scratchers more than anything else. I don't think you can compare anyone else in MLB to Beane.

The Rockies traded Jimenez for a reason. They did exactly as everyone in baseball attempts to perfect, trade a player at their peak. They traded Jimenez for a reason, the reason being they thought he had peaked as a player.

The Padres trade of Latos may be the most comparable in that they traded a young player with a bunch of upside (we hope). While Latos has the makings of being an ace, CarGo is a perenial MVP candidate who is under contract for a number of years going forward. To me its akin to all the writers and reporters and some fans suggesting the Reds trade Votto because they couldn't extend him. They just don't have the insight into the inner workings of these clubs. If I am the Reds I would go all in for CarGo but I think the chances of the Rockies trading him are remote at best.

I never said the Rockies were likely to trade him. All I said is that it has come up in public discussion (as opposed to team discussion). If a nationally renown baseball writer hypothesizes about it, and the story gets picked up by several of the most prominent baseball blogs and newswires in existence, I think that it is a more than acceptable discussion topic on a messageboard.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 05:56 PM
FWIW, many posters here advocate trading everyone on a daily basis, or at least after every poor game. Votto and Cueto were unsigned at the time, apples and oranges.

The post I was referring to suggested that CarGo could be had because Tulo was injured for 6 weeks, and the Rockies were out of it. There was no suggestion that he would be traded as part of a rebuilding process. Which would make little sense anyway, as CarGo is half of the Rockies rebuilding process going forward.

Cueto wasn't unsigned last year. So that's an incorrect classification.

CarGo likely isn't going anywhere. But there is speculation that the Rockies might want to consider it, because as was the case with Latos, trading a valuable asset under contract could expedite a team's rebuilding process.

Tulo is out for at least 8 weeks (not 6), but more importantly the Rockies have been 40 games under .500 since the 2010 All-Star Break. Their rebuilding process is not a product of Tulo's injury, it is the reality they've been mired in for the last two years.

PuffyPig
06-21-2012, 06:40 PM
Tulo is out for at least 8 weeks (not 6), but more importantly the Rockies have been 40 games under .500 since the 2010 All-Star Break. Their rebuilding process is not a product of Tulo's injury, it is the reality they've been mired in for the last two years.

Rotoworld says 6-8 weeks, but he'll try to return in 6 weeks, but it might be 8.

CarGo is owed about $71M over the next 5 years (after this one).

I doubt the Reds can afford that much money on another OF. Especially one that likely would project as a LF on our team, who's stats away from Coors are pretty pedestrain for an elite paid player, and who would cost us an arm and a leg in prospects.

Vottomatic
06-22-2012, 05:20 PM
FWIW, the CarGo conversation was instigated by mlbtraderumors.com when they posted a story earlier in the week saying that the Rockies should consider trading him because they have so many needs and one superstar isn't going to solve their problems, intimiting they might get a good haul of prospects for him, so they can rebuild their franchise.

I doubt the Reds can affor CarGo either, if he were available.

Quentin is injury prone, but is also in a contract year, which gives him incentive to stay healthy and produce.

Benihana
06-25-2012, 03:14 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/poll-trading-carlos-gonzalez.html

As the OP of this thread, I'll allow myself to change its original course.

MAKE YOUR BEST OFFER: CARLOS GONZALEZ

I'll start: Homer Bailey, Tony Cingrani, Drew Stubbs, and anyone in the system not named Hamilton, Corcino or Stephenson.

I'd hope the eventual savings from moving Stubbs and Bailey would help offset CarGo's salary going forward. I would happily move Hamilton, Corcino, or Stephenson for CarGo, just not in the same deal as the other guys mentioned. In short, no one in the minors would be untouchable in this deal. I'd immediately send Chapman down to Louisville to get stretched out as a SP so that he could replace Bailey in the rotation ideally by August. This would be effectively selling high on Cingrani, and I'd do the same on Hamilton in the right deal.

OR

Aroldis Chapman, straight up. No explanation necessary.

Tom Servo
06-25-2012, 03:20 PM
OR

Aroldis Chapman, straight up.
I'd drive Aroldis to Colorado personally, and laugh all the way back with CarGo.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-25-2012, 03:24 PM
Chapman, Stubbs and system player of choice other than Corcino or Hamilton. And I'd have to consider Hamilton if that was the sticking point.

The Rockies desperately need pitching and Stubbs might be attractive to them since he'd be able to cover the Great Plains of the expansive Coors Field outfield. And Hamilton would be able to run for 45 minutes on a ball up the gap there.

Put CarGo batting fourth in this lineup and playing LF every day and this team wins the division by 10 games.

Benihana
06-25-2012, 03:34 PM
Put CarGo batting fourth in this lineup and playing LF every day and this team wins the division by 10 games.

Agreed provided Cueto can maintain his current pace.

Benihana
06-25-2012, 03:40 PM
Hamilton CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Gonzalez LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Hanoraco C
Cozart SS

looks pretty good for the next five years!

kaldaniels
06-25-2012, 03:44 PM
Put CarGo batting fourth in this lineup and playing LF every day and this team wins the division by 10 games.

Fair point. I would ask where you think they finish w/o CarGo though.

Vottomatic
06-25-2012, 04:50 PM
I'd drive Aroldis to Colorado personally, and laugh all the way back with CarGo.

I'd be in your passenger seat in case you needed me to drive occasionally. :D

My offer: Chapman and Stubbs straight up for CarGo. I'd throw in Neftali Soto if it would get the deal done. Might even consider giving them their choice of Hoover or Donnie Joseph to sweeten the deal. But that's as far as I'd go considering the salary we'd be taking on.

Tom Servo
06-27-2012, 08:38 PM
For one thing, superstar outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, who has 17 home runs, 54 RBI and a .331 batting average, isn't going anywhere, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said by phone.

"The Carlos Gonzalez thing is a joke,'' O'Dowd said. "We're not trading Carlos Gonzalez.''

Apparently, the whole Gonzalez "thing'' boiled down to one phone call of interest from Nationals GM Mike Rizzo. O'Dowd told Rizzo that Gonzalez wasn't available, and that was the end of it, according to O'Dowd.

Vottomatic
06-28-2012, 08:02 AM
For one thing, superstar outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, who has 17 home runs, 54 RBI and a .331 batting average, isn't going anywhere, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said by phone.

"The Carlos Gonzalez thing is a joke,'' O'Dowd said. "We're not trading Carlos Gonzalez.''

Apparently, the whole Gonzalez "thing'' boiled down to one phone call of interest from Nationals GM Mike Rizzo. O'Dowd told Rizzo that Gonzalez wasn't available, and that was the end of it, according to O'Dowd.

What about Matt Kemp? :laugh: :lol: ;)