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Raisor
06-19-2012, 09:28 AM
After a lot of gnashing of teeth earlier in the season, the Reds are now 5th in the NL in RS and have two guys in the top 11 in OPS. How worried are you now?

Vottomatic
06-19-2012, 09:43 AM
After a lot of gnashing of teeth earlier in the season, the Reds are now 5th in the NL in RS and have two guys in the top 11 in OPS. How worried are you now?

I just keep thinking that with a little tweaking they could be in 1st in RS and have 3 or 4 guys in the top 11 in OPS. :D :lol: ;)

Seriously though. There's always room for improvement. But some of these guys, like Phillips for instance, were underperforming in relation to their career numbers.

If it didn't gut the farm system, I'd still be up for upgrading CF and LF, with specifically a tablesetter type guy with a high OBP to bat in front of Votto, and a cleanup hitter to help Joey get even more pitches to hit.

Kc61
06-19-2012, 04:40 PM
I won't repeat the umpteen posts I've written on this. I'm glad the team is hitting better. They are destroying lefty pitching. They are just ok against righty pitching.

I still think this is a poorly constructed offense. No tablesetters. Need lefty bats. Need another true middle of the order bat.

But mostly, the Reds have one of baseball's great hitters. They need to structure the offense to give him his best opportunity to put up big numbers. Votto has 45 RBI, he should have many more with his OPS. He needs a better balanced offense around him.

WVRedsFan
06-19-2012, 04:52 PM
But mostly, the Reds have one of baseball's great hitters. They need to structure the offense to give him his best opportunity to put up big numbers. Votto has 45 RBI, he should have many more with his OPS. He needs a better balanced offense around him.

Absolutely. Batting the rookie leadoff and the up and down Heisey second sometimes leaves Votto with no one to drive in, and that's a shame. I wish Dusty would learn that guys who get on base are mandatory for his super hitter to flourish--as well as the team.

Raisor
06-19-2012, 05:00 PM
With Rolen back I would put Frazier in LF until Rolen breaks down and bat him second. He's not ideal by any means, but I'd rather his 850 ish OPS higher up.

Hannigan
Frazier
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Stubbs
Rolen
Cozart

I'd much rather have bruce cleanup but it aint happening

Kc61
06-19-2012, 05:02 PM
Absolutely. Batting the rookie leadoff and the up and down Heisey second sometimes leaves Votto with no one to drive in, and that's a shame. I wish Dusty would learn that guys who get on base are mandatory for his super hitter to flourish--as well as the team.

WV, I think Dusty does know this. He's limited by his personnel.

He once hit Hanigan higher in the lineup, years ago, and it didn't go well. So I'm assuming that he feels Ryan is best situated at 8.

He wanted to hit Phillips lead off, but then Votto was being walked constantly. So he moved Brandon to cleanup.

But even if I'm wrong, even if Dusty doesn't fully appreciate the issue, he is still limited by his personnel. The OBPs on the team just aren't very good. Ultimately I think Walt needs to add a high OBP player as a starting point.

Kc61
06-19-2012, 05:07 PM
With Rolen back I would put Frazier in LF until Rolen breaks down and bat him second. He's not ideal by any means, but I'd rather his 850 ish OPS higher up.

Hannigan
Frazier
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Stubbs
Rolen
Cozart

I'd much rather have bruce cleanup but it aint happening

I don't see Frazier in the two hole. I think eventually his OBP against righties won't warrant it.

But your effort there shows how the personnel doesn't add up to an optimal lineup. There really is no true lead off hitter. Phillips would be a great second hitter IMO. But then the middle of the order suffers.

Put DeJesus in the lineup and then it will fall into place more easily.

dougdirt
06-19-2012, 05:09 PM
WV, I think Dusty does know this. He's limited by his personnel.

He once hit Hanigan higher in the lineup, years ago, and it didn't go well. So I'm assuming that he feels Ryan is best situated at 8.

I hope that isn't it....



Split PA AB BB SO BA OBP
2nd 10 9 1 1 .222 .300
3rd 6 4 2 0 .250 .500
4th 1 1 0 0 .000 .000
5th 6 3 3 0 .333 .667
6th 71 63 7 8 .270 .352
7th 272 233 33 25 .313 .396
8th 682 592 77 74 .270 .363
9th 55 46 8 3 .217 .345


.... given that he has less than 25 plate appearances higher than 6th in the entire line up in his life.

Kc61
06-19-2012, 05:10 PM
I hope that isn't it....



Split PA AB BB SO BA OBP
2nd 10 9 1 1 .222 .300
3rd 6 4 2 0 .250 .500
4th 1 1 0 0 .000 .000
5th 6 3 3 0 .333 .667
6th 71 63 7 8 .270 .352
7th 272 233 33 25 .313 .396
8th 682 592 77 74 .270 .363
9th 55 46 8 3 .217 .345


.... given that he has less than 25 plate appearances higher than 6th in the entire line up in his life.

It was a VERY brief trial as I recall, a few years back. Dusty terminated the trial after only a few games. I don't recall where Ryan hit, he didn't do that well. Not sure how it corresponds to your chart.

dougdirt
06-19-2012, 05:11 PM
It was a VERY brief trial as I recall, a few years back. Dusty terminated the trial after only a few games. I don't recall where Ryan hit, he didn't do that well. Not sure how it corresponds to your chart.

It had to be him batting 2nd and it looks like it lasted 2 or 3 games, max.

Kc61
06-19-2012, 05:13 PM
It had to be him batting 2nd and it looks like it lasted 2 or 3 games, max.

Honestly don't recall the details, but it happened and Dusty snapped him immediately back to the bottom of the order.

My guess is that if one asked Dusty why Hanigan is hitting eighth now he'll say we tried him up higher it didn't work out.

But whatever, given the current individual OBPs on the team, it would seem that Ryan should hit ahead of Votto because he would be on base quite a bit.

Dusty also doesn't think much of Ryan's speed afoot, since he pinch runs Mesoraco for him sometimes in the late innings.

Big Klu
06-20-2012, 04:50 AM
Honestly don't recall the details, but it happened and Dusty snapped him immediately back to the bottom of the order.

My guess is that if one asked Dusty why Hanigan is hitting eighth now he'll say we tried him up higher it didn't work out.

But whatever, given the current individual OBPs on the team, it would seem that Ryan should hit ahead of Votto because he would be on base quite a bit.

Dusty also doesn't think much of Ryan's speed afoot, since he pinch runs Mesoraco for him sometimes in the late innings.

My guess is that if you asked Dusty why Hanigan bats eighth he would say that it's because Ryan is comfortable and successful there.

(And Dusty would be right about Hanigan's lack of speed. He is by far the slowest player on the team.)

AtomicDumpling
06-20-2012, 06:20 AM
It would be better to have a slow guy on base in front of Votto than no guy on base in front of Votto.

Given that there is obviously nobody on the team that is worthy of batting in the 2-hole in front of Votto, why don't we just bump Votto, Phillips and Bruce up into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in the lineup? At least they would get more at-bats that way.

Votto's near .500 OBP would be much better utilized coming to the plate with one out instead of 2 outs. When you have low OBP hitters in front of Votto you are not only wasting Votto's ability to drive in runners, you are also wasting his fantastic ability to get on base and score runs. If he gets on base with two outs the Reds have only one shot to bring him around. Batting him earlier in the lineup means he will get on base with 0 or 1 outs instead of 2 outs -- which gives Phillips and Bruce both a chance to bring him around to score.

I think sometimes people focus too exclusively on Votto's ability to drive in runs and forget about his ability to score runs. Votto is not only a great RBI man (due to his AVG and SLG, both stellar) but he is actually the ideal table-setter as well (due to his sensational OBP). Since the table is rarely set for him we might as well give him the opportunity to set the table for Phillips and Bruce.

kbrake
06-20-2012, 07:43 AM
I'm still concerned with the offense. Lineup construction will never get much better under Dusty. LF and CF are problems right now. Glad they're hitting better as a team but I certainly don't think this offense is good enough to win in October.

Vottomatic
06-20-2012, 10:54 AM
I'm still concerned with the offense. Lineup construction will never get much better under Dusty. LF and CF are problems right now. Glad they're hitting better as a team but I certainly don't think this offense is good enough to win in October.

Me either.

Degenerate39
06-20-2012, 11:00 AM
What are Stubbs' numbers while batting 2nd? I think he's been fairly productive there hasn't he?

CesarGeronimo
06-20-2012, 11:56 AM
I'm still concerned with the offense. Lineup construction will never get much better under Dusty. LF and CF are problems right now. Glad they're hitting better as a team but I certainly don't think this offense is good enough to win in October.

The route to better lineup construction under Dusty is simple, even if it isn't easy to accomplish. The Reds need to trade for a centerfielder and a shortstop who are good at getting on base. I'm not saying that I'd want to do that, but it's the only way to fix the lineup construction.

Kc61
06-20-2012, 12:16 PM
It would be better to have a slow guy on base in front of Votto than no guy on base in front of Votto.

Given that there is obviously nobody on the team that is worthy of batting in the 2-hole in front of Votto, why don't we just bump Votto, Phillips and Bruce up into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in the lineup? At least they would get more at-bats that way.

Votto's near .500 OBP would be much better utilized coming to the plate with one out instead of 2 outs. When you have low OBP hitters in front of Votto you are not only wasting Votto's ability to drive in runners, you are also wasting his fantastic ability to get on base and score runs. If he gets on base with two outs the Reds have only one shot to bring him around. Batting him earlier in the lineup means he will get on base with 0 or 1 outs instead of 2 outs -- which gives Phillips and Bruce both a chance to bring him around to score.

I think sometimes people focus too exclusively on Votto's ability to drive in runs and forget about his ability to score runs. Votto is not only a great RBI man (due to his AVG and SLG, both stellar) but he is actually the ideal table-setter as well (due to his sensational OBP). Since the table is rarely set for him we might as well give him the opportunity to set the table for Phillips and Bruce.

Good post.

Votto has 45 runs scored this season, tying him for 13th-16th in baseball. This is quite a low number when you consider his .490 OBP. He's always on base, he should be among the tops in baseball in runs scored.

To cure this they can:

Get a high-end cleanup hitter who will knock him in more often. Expensive solution.

Get better tablesetters so the middle of the order hits with two outs less frequently. This is my solution.

Move Votto up to second in the order. That's what I call thinking out of the box.

Bottom line: the Reds have a great hitter and need to do a better job maximizing his impact.

MikeThierry
06-20-2012, 12:41 PM
Good post.

Votto has 45 runs scored this season, tying him for 13th-16th in baseball. This is quite a low number when you consider his .490 OBP. He's always on base, he should be among the tops in baseball in runs scored.

To cure this they can:

Get a high-end cleanup hitter who will knock him in more often. Expensive solution.

Get better tablesetters so the middle of the order hits with two outs less frequently. This is my solution.

Move Votto up to second in the order. That's what I call thinking out of the box.

Bottom line: the Reds have a great hitter and need to do a better job maximizing his impact.

As you pointed out, the first option is expensive. However, I don't know if you're able to get the second option. It's one thing to say get player A to be a table setter. However, with the way 1 and 2 hitters are getting on base now across the league, teams are not willing to give up guys who can set the table for their big sluggers. It was documented in another thread here but the leadoff hitters in baseball have an almost abysmal OBP this year. This trend of declining OBP for leadoff hitters has been going on for a couple of years now. I just don't know if the Reds will be able to find a solution to the OBP problem in front of Votto other than going into their system.

Kc61
06-20-2012, 01:13 PM
As you pointed out, the first option is expensive. However, I don't know if you're able to get the second option. It's one thing to say get player A to be a table setter. However, with the way 1 and 2 hitters are getting on base now across the league, teams are not willing to give up guys who can set the table for their big sluggers. It was documented in another thread here but the leadoff hitters in baseball have an almost abysmal OBP this year. This trend of declining OBP for leadoff hitters has been going on for a couple of years now. I just don't know if the Reds will be able to find a solution to the OBP problem in front of Votto other than going into their system.

NL average OBP for the lead off spot is .317. That is low, you are right.

Unfortunately, the Reds have the worst OBP for lead off hitters. .249. It's not only the worst in the NL. It's the worst in major league baseball (where the average is .322). Reds lead off OBP is dead last.

Reds BA in the lead off spot is .209. Dead last in MLB.

Maybe Cozart (.312 OBP overall, .276 as lead off) will eventually be a top notch tablesetter. Maybe Stubbs (.300 OBP, .132 lead off) or Heisey (.299 OBP, .321 lead off).

But I think it is imperative for the Reds to find one, left handed, top of the order hitter. They may not be easy to get, but it's necessary.

OnBaseMachine
06-20-2012, 02:07 PM
The Reds have exactly two hitters with an OBP north of .335. I'm still not sold on the offense. They need to add a high OBP guy to the lineup. Josh Willingham would be the perfect fit, IMO.

traderumor
06-20-2012, 02:08 PM
It would be better to have a slow guy on base in front of Votto than no guy on base in front of Votto.

Given that there is obviously nobody on the team that is worthy of batting in the 2-hole in front of Votto, why don't we just bump Votto, Phillips and Bruce up into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in the lineup? At least they would get more at-bats that way.

Votto's near .500 OBP would be much better utilized coming to the plate with one out instead of 2 outs. When you have low OBP hitters in front of Votto you are not only wasting Votto's ability to drive in runners, you are also wasting his fantastic ability to get on base and score runs. If he gets on base with two outs the Reds have only one shot to bring him around. Batting him earlier in the lineup means he will get on base with 0 or 1 outs instead of 2 outs -- which gives Phillips and Bruce both a chance to bring him around to score.

I think sometimes people focus too exclusively on Votto's ability to drive in runs and forget about his ability to score runs. Votto is not only a great RBI man (due to his AVG and SLG, both stellar) but he is actually the ideal table-setter as well (due to his sensational OBP). Since the table is rarely set for him we might as well give him the opportunity to set the table for Phillips and Bruce.There's your strategy for the 1st inning. The rest of the game is random as to how many outs. They've needed a true leadoff hitter for several years now. Yet they still manage to be an above average offense. I imagine if one is acquired, it will take them to another level, but lineup juggling is just that ole cliche--shuffling deckchairs, except here the ship is not sinking, it just could be going faster.

traderumor
06-20-2012, 02:09 PM
The Reds have exactly two hitters with an OBP north of .335. I'm still not sold on the offense. They need to add a high OBP guy to the lineup. Josh Willingham would be the perfect fit, IMO.There are plenty of fits. But are they available and at what price is the $100 million dollar question for the decision makers.

Big Klu
06-20-2012, 03:08 PM
It would be better to have a slow guy on base in front of Votto than no guy on base in front of Votto.

Given that there is obviously nobody on the team that is worthy of batting in the 2-hole in front of Votto, why don't we just bump Votto, Phillips and Bruce up into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in the lineup? At least they would get more at-bats that way.

Votto's near .500 OBP would be much better utilized coming to the plate with one out instead of 2 outs. When you have low OBP hitters in front of Votto you are not only wasting Votto's ability to drive in runners, you are also wasting his fantastic ability to get on base and score runs. If he getrs on base with two outs the Reds have only one shot to bring him around. Batting him earlier in the lineup means he will get on base with 0 or 1 outs instead of 2 outs -- which gives Phillips and Bruce both a chance to bring him around to score.

I think sometimes people focus too exclusively on Votto's ability to drive in runs and forget about his ability to score runs. Votto is not only a great RBI man (due to his AVG and SLG, both stellar) but he is actually the ideal table-setter as well (due to his sensational OBP). Since the table is rarely set for him we might as well give him the opportunity to set the table for Phillips and Bruce.


I'm not opposed to having a slow guy at the top of the order. I would be willing to try Hanigan in the #2 spot (or even the #1 spot) in the order, though the batting order would have to be reshuffled when Mesoraco starts.

I was only commenting on the previous post regarding Hanigan in the #8 spot, and about his speed.

MikeThierry
06-20-2012, 03:14 PM
I'm not opposed to having a slow guy at the top of the order. I would be willing to try Hanigan in the #2 spot (or even the #1 spot) in the order, though the batting order would have to be reshuffled when Mesoraco starts.

I was only commenting on the previous post regarding Hanigan in the #8 spot, and about his speed.

LaRussa never really concerned himself with having a speedy guy in the 1 and 2 hole. LaRussa always wanted someone in the 2 hole that presented a power threat. That's why a lot of times he would bat someone like Edmonds second in front of Pujols. It was a successful formula that seemed to work for a long time. What about a radical lineup shuffle where you would put Bruce in the 2 hole? He would see significantly more quality to pitches to hit due to the Votto factor behind him.

traderumor
06-20-2012, 03:27 PM
LaRussa never really concerned himself with having a speedy guy in the 1 and 2 hole. LaRussa always wanted someone in the 2 hole that presented a power threat. That's why a lot of times he would bat someone like Edmonds second in front of Pujols. It was a successful formula that seemed to work for a long time. What about a radical lineup shuffle where you would put Bruce in the 2 hole? He would see significantly more quality to pitches to hit due to the Votto factor behind him.Bruce has been tried both at leadoff and in the 2 hole, but very temporarily, prob. in team slump or injury situations.

Sea Ray
06-20-2012, 03:40 PM
NL average OBP for the lead off spot is .317. That is low, you are right.

Unfortunately, the Reds have the worst OBP for lead off hitters. .249. It's not only the worst in the NL. It's the worst in major league baseball (where the average is .322). Reds lead off OBP is dead last.

Reds BA in the lead off spot is .209. Dead last in MLB.

Maybe Cozart (.312 OBP overall, .276 as lead off) will eventually be a top notch tablesetter. Maybe Stubbs (.300 OBP, .132 lead off) or Heisey (.299 OBP, .321 lead off).

But I think it is imperative for the Reds to find one, left handed, top of the order hitter. They may not be easy to get, but it's necessary.

Wow. That's pitiful. Hard to believe the Reds are above the norm in runs scored if that's the case

MikeThierry
06-20-2012, 03:44 PM
Bruce has been tried both at leadoff and in the 2 hole, but very temporarily, prob. in team slump or injury situations.

How do you think it would work out for a long extended period of time?

Kc61
06-20-2012, 03:49 PM
Wow. That's pitiful. Hard to believe the Reds are above the norm in runs scored if that's the case

Sea Ray, I double checked this because the numbers are so pitiful. I think it's correct, although I'm happy to be informed if I'm misreading something.

Looking at the individual OBPs "Batting First" (MLB.com) -- Heisey (26 ABs) is .321. Cozart (199 ABs) is .276. Phillips (24 ABs) is .240. Stubbs (36 ABs) at .132. Then there are three others with 12 at bats in the lead off spot and a .000 OBP.

Some of these at bats could be double switches - where a guy hits in the lead off spot after being double switched into the game - but I assume very few.

These numbers do seem to fit with an overall .249 OBP in the lead off spot.

Individual BA for Reds players "Batting First" (MLB.com) - Heisey .269, Cozart .236, Phillips .208, Stubbs .083, and zero for 12 ABs among three other players.

The stats for guys hitting second on the Reds are better, .333 OBP, ninth best in the NL. Still not great with Votto hitting third, I'd argue.

AtomicDumpling
06-20-2012, 05:06 PM
I'm not opposed to having a slow guy at the top of the order. I would be willing to try Hanigan in the #2 spot (or even the #1 spot) in the order, though the batting order would have to be reshuffled when Mesoraco starts.

I was only commenting on the previous post regarding Hanigan in the #8 spot, and about his speed.

OK. :thumbup: I wasn't disagreeing with you, just making a separate comment on the same topic. :beerme:

klw
06-20-2012, 05:10 PM
Tonight's Reds DH- Willie Harris. Here's hoping he continues his post recall improvement.

Kc61
06-20-2012, 05:12 PM
Tonight's Reds DH- Willie Harris. Here's hoping he continues his post recall improvement.

As posted in the game thread, Masterson is MUCH tougher on righty hitters than lefties. Huge differential in the stats.

So we get lefty Harris tonight. Reds only have three lefty hitters, excluding pitchers. Not many choices.

klw
06-20-2012, 05:28 PM
As posted in the game thread, Masterson is MUCH tougher on righty hitters than lefties. Huge differential in the stats.

So we get lefty Harris tonight. Reds only have three lefty hitters, excluding pitchers. Not many choices.

The stats and reasoning you posted in the other thread makes sense.

jhu1321
06-20-2012, 07:03 PM
The Reds have exactly two hitters with an OBP north of .335. I'm still not sold on the offense. They need to add a high OBP guy to the lineup. Josh Willingham would be the perfect fit, IMO.

Completely agree and signed for the next 3 years at 7 mil per. He changes the makeup of the lineup immensely. Id be willing to lose Heisey or Stubbs / someone from the pen and one of Corcino / Cingrani. I think he'd push our offense over the top. :beerme:

Kc61
06-20-2012, 09:36 PM
Completely agree and signed for the next 3 years at 7 mil per. He changes the makeup of the lineup immensely. Id be willing to lose Heisey or Stubbs / someone from the pen and one of Corcino / Cingrani. I think he'd push our offense over the top. :beerme:

Wilingham would be fine. But you will never be a true competitor with three lefty hitters in the entire offense, one of whom is Willie Harris.

jhu1321
06-20-2012, 10:54 PM
Maybe we should go after Choo? At least that would keep him from destroying our pitching 6 games a year.

KronoRed
06-21-2012, 05:16 AM
Since this topic was started the Reds have scored 3 runs in 2 games.

Cursed.

Raisor
06-21-2012, 09:49 AM
Since this topic was started the Reds have scored 3 runs in 2 games.

Cursed.

I blame Bob Boone (tm)

Vottomatic
06-21-2012, 09:53 AM
I blame Bob Boone (tm)

I blame the death of Pedro Borbon. I hear the curse came back upon his death.

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 11:31 AM
Maybe we should go after Choo? At least that would keep him from destroying our pitching 6 games a year.

I don't really follow the Indians, but others have said here that the tribe loves Choo and he's not going anywhere. But I do agree. If available, he'd be BY FAR my number 1 target.

Sea Ray
06-21-2012, 11:34 AM
I don't really follow the Indians, but others have said here that the tribe loves Choo and he's not going anywhere. But I do agree. If available, he'd be BY FAR my number 1 target.

He's arguably their best hitter and they're in the thick of the race. No he's not available. Only clueless fans start picking other team's best hitters and thinking they can pick them up at Walmart with a credit card

traderumor
06-21-2012, 12:24 PM
I don't really follow the Indians, but others have said here that the tribe loves Choo and he's not going anywhere. But I do agree. If available, he'd be BY FAR my number 1 target.Not so sure we'd get the guy that hits against the Reds. I would be looking at his decline the last two seasons from where he was 2008-2010. While he'd be an upgrade in LF, I'm not sure that the benefit would exceed the cost because of his status on his current team.

Last year you might have been able to buy low, he had various issues going on, but I think the Tribe would consider him a premium player for trade value again.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 12:31 PM
He's arguably their best hitter and they're in the thick of the race. No he's not available. Only clueless fans start picking other team's best hitters and thinking they can pick them up at Walmart with a credit cardIf the Indians GM is paying attention, he knows that the position they are in is unsustainable and that this is probably not their season. I think Choo could be had for the right price. I doubt if any of us want the Reds to pay that price.

Vottomatic
06-21-2012, 12:46 PM
After the Reds swept them last week, I was hoping it was the beginning of the fall for Cleveland, and eventually the Reds might be able to pick up Choo. Choo is arb eligible this offseason and then a free agent after next season. Isn't he 30 years old?

11larkin11
06-21-2012, 01:56 PM
The Indians' biggest weakness, the bullpen, is the Reds' greatest abundance of talent. I think we could work a deal if they really wanted Choo, but I don't think it will happen.

jhu1321
06-21-2012, 02:07 PM
He's arguably their best hitter and they're in the thick of the race. No he's not available. Only clueless fans start picking other team's best hitters and thinking they can pick them up at Walmart with a credit card

Clueless is stating that Choo is the Indians best hitter.

Sea Ray
06-21-2012, 03:39 PM
If the Indians GM is paying attention, he knows that the position they are in is unsustainable and that this is probably not their season. I think Choo could be had for the right price. I doubt if any of us want the Reds to pay that price.

I suppose most ballplayers can be had for a price and I agree that he's not in our price range so it's folly to even discuss it. These things come up often around here. I remember the many posts years ago suggesting that we could get Matt Kemp from the Dodgers as if they didn't realize what they had in him...

traderumor
06-21-2012, 04:39 PM
I suppose most ballplayers can be had for a price and I agree that he's not in our price range so it's folly to even discuss it. These things come up often around here. I remember the many posts years ago suggesting that we could get Matt Kemp from the Dodgers as if they didn't realize what they had in him...I think Kemp was available for a reasonable price at one point. He had the dreaded "makeup" issues, which were mostly he occasionally makes boneheaded plays, sort of like BP, then also makes things look easy so he's accused of lacking effort. That ship has sailed, but prior to last year, he probably could have been acquired for what would seem now like the deal of the century. Its funny how the natural maturity process often catches up to the physical talent and all of a sudden you have a superstar hitting his prime.

With that idea in mind, I would be trying to see if the Reds could catch the Braves in a weak moment with Heyward and their sudden pitching dilemma.

Sea Ray
06-21-2012, 04:54 PM
With that idea in mind, I would be trying to see if the Reds could catch the Braves in a weak moment with Heyward and their sudden pitching dilemma.

Just like with Kemp a few years ago, you're dreaming. The Braves know what they have in Heyward. This is Dorothy and Toto stuff.

I'd love to be proven wrong and see Heyward in our lineup

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 05:11 PM
Not so sure we'd get the guy that hits against the Reds. I would be looking at his decline the last two seasons from where he was 2008-2010. While he'd be an upgrade in LF, I'm not sure that the benefit would exceed the cost because of his status on his current team.

Last year you might have been able to buy low, he had various issues going on, but I think the Tribe would consider him a premium player for trade value again.

He declined in power. But his OB skills were still there. That's what I'm wanting. If he hits for power...bonus points.

And as for them still being in the thick of the race...yes they are, but I don't think they will be by the trading deadline. I'm also not sure that he's their best hitter. One of them for certain. Anyway, when I was first speculating about him he was still scuffling. Oh well. I guy can dream, can't he? :O)

traderumor
06-21-2012, 05:12 PM
Just like with Kemp a few years ago, you're dreaming. The Braves know what they have in Heyward. This is Dorothy and Toto stuff.

I'd love to be proven wrong and see Heyward in our lineupI'm not so sure about that. Teams sour on young guys for wrong reasons all the time.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 05:20 PM
Just like with Kemp a few years ago, you're dreaming. The Braves know what they have in Heyward. This is Dorothy and Toto stuff.

I'd love to be proven wrong and see Heyward in our lineup
Do some research, I think you'll find some indicators that the Dodgers were considering cutting bait on him--until he broke out last year. Now the narrative is they knew what they had and never would have dealt him? Don't forget the McCourt days.

BTW, dreamers invent things. Skeptics criticize the invention. Sometimes, its "never hurts to ask."

AtomicDumpling
06-21-2012, 06:40 PM
Do some research, I think you'll find some indicators that the Dodgers were considering cutting bait on him--until he broke out last year. Now the narrative is they knew what they had and never would have dealt him? Don't forget the McCourt days.

BTW, dreamers invent things. Skeptics criticize the invention. Sometimes, its "never hurts to ask."

True. It is a lot easier to poop on someone else's idea than to come up with one of your own.

cincrazy
06-21-2012, 07:12 PM
Still worried. Nothing's changed from previous years. It's a very streaky offense. Maybe we'll catch fire in the postseason like the 2010 Giants. Or maybe we'll get shut down by great pitching like our 2010 offense, or the umpteen times the Twins were shut down in the playoffs.

Kc61
06-21-2012, 07:39 PM
Still worried. Nothing's changed from previous years. It's a very streaky offense. Maybe we'll catch fire in the postseason like the 2010 Giants. Or maybe we'll get shut down by great pitching like our 2010 offense, or the umpteen times the Twins were shut down in the playoffs.

Cincrazy, I don't think the Reds' problem on offense is streakiness. Streakiness implies a kind of random bouncing from hot hitting to cold hitting.

In the Reds' case, the offensive problems are patently obvious from the numbers, they are clear as a bell. It's not just random streaks.

The Reds' lead off spot has a .246 OBP, the worst in major league baseball, and a .206 BA, the worst in major league baseball. With Votto hitting third, this is a disastrous stat. Lack of a lead off hitter totally undercuts Joey's great hitting.

The team OPSs .811 against lefties, the best in baseball. The team OPSs .713 against righties, virtually 100 points less, 19th in baseball. (At bats against righties about triples the number of at bats against lefties.)

The team OPSs .789 at home. The team OPSs .691 on the road, again about 100 points less.

A good front office sees these trends and makes changes to fix them. They acquire a lead off hitter, they beef up hitting against RHP, they get more consistent hitters who will hit on the road.

The weaknesses are just entirely obvious. And if they can't be all be fixed in season, they should fix whichever they can. Simply, these areas need improvement.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 07:46 PM
Cincrazy, I don't think the Reds' problem on offense is streakiness. Streakiness implies a kind of random bouncing from hot hitting to cold hitting.

In the Reds' case, the offensive problems are patently obvious from the numbers, they are clear as a bell. It's not just random streaks.

The Reds' lead off spot has a .246 OBP, the worst in major league baseball, and a .206 BA, the worst in major league baseball. With Votto hitting third, this is a disastrous stat.

The team OPSs .811 against lefties, the best in baseball. The team OPSs .713 against righties, virtually 100 points less, 19th in baseball. (At bats against righties about triples the number of at bats against lefties.)

The team OPSs .789 at home. The team OPSs .691 on the road, again about 100 points less.

A good front office sees these trends and makes changes to fix them. They acquire a lead off hitter, they beef up hitting against RHH, they get more consistent hitters who will hit on the road.

The weaknesses are just entirely obvious. And if they can't be all be fixed in season, they should fix whichever they can.I laugh at your "good front office" potshot. Clearly, they are doing their job. I guess they don't have the best record in baseball to date, ignorant bums that they are. Clueless they are. Geesh.

The biggest weakness was pitching, which was addressed in the offseason, and voile, they are in 1st place, 8 games over, a positive RS/RA, the offense is trending up as the year wears on....incremental improvements, a deadline deal, a lefty bench bat seems a reasonable expectation, and we are just as good as anyone else in the league as is, so that should only improve our chances.

Kc61
06-21-2012, 08:04 PM
I laugh at your "good front office" potshot. Clearly, they are doing their job. I guess they don't have the best record in baseball to date, ignorant bums that they are. Clueless they are. Geesh.

The biggest weakness was pitching, which was addressed in the offseason, and voile, they are in 1st place, 8 games over, a positive RS/RA, the offense is trending up as the year wears on....incremental improvements, a deadline deal, a lefty bench bat seems a reasonable expectation, and we are just as good as anyone else in the league as is, so that should only improve our chances.

It's truly unbelievable how people jump on every word to attack the poster around here.

I am aware of the strides taken by the front office. I am aware of the numbers. You might be aware of the threads I do every ten games setting out these numbers. And I do know about the pitching improvement. I did hear about it somehow.

There is indeed time for the front office to act. I think Walt is a sound baseball man and I expect him to improve things.

But if the front office does not act, they will have blown an opportunity because there is a lot of talent on this team and the needs are completely obvious. It's not just random streakiness. A good front office should be addressing these very clear needs.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 08:28 PM
It's truly unbelievable how people jump on every word to attack the poster around here.

I am aware of the strides taken by the front office. I am aware of the numbers. You might be aware of the threads I do every ten games setting out these numbers. And I do know about the pitching improvement. I did hear about it somehow.

There is indeed time for the front office to act. I think Walt is a sound baseball man and I expect him to improve things.

But if the front office does not act, they will have blown an opportunity because there is a lot of talent on this team and the needs are completely obvious. It's not just random streakiness. A good front office should be addressing these very clear needs.You continue to approach these issues as if its a matter of ignorance or inaction rather than inability due to various factors that make "finding a high obp leadoff hitter" and "a slugging leftfielder" a lot easier droned on about repeatedly in theory than finding a deal involving players with those very valuable attributes.

In other words, the Reds FO know the issues and I find it amazing that there continue to be hints that we are smarter than they and have identified problems of which they are clueless.

Kc61
06-21-2012, 08:43 PM
You continue to approach these issues as if its a matter of ignorance or inaction rather than inability due to various factors that make "finding a high obp leadoff hitter" and "a slugging leftfielder" a lot easier droned on about repeatedly in theory than finding a deal involving players with those very valuable attributes.

In other words, the Reds FO know the issues and I find it amazing that there continue to be hints that we are smarter than they and have identified problems of which they are clueless.

Fans base opinions on what they see. None of us know what efforts were and are being made behind the scenes. So we look at the results.

Walt did a fine job addressing pitching this off-season. If not for injuries in the pen, I expect the improvement would have been even greater. This should be evident to most fans.

However, on the offense, I won't just throw praise at the FO. There were trends last season that were not adequately addressed. The team still lacks OBP, still lacks hitting against righties, still lacks enough good road hitters.

As much respect as I have for Walt and his group -- and I do -- as a fan I'm not going to ignore these issues and I think they are appropriately raised in threads such as this. How seriously the FO takes these deficiencies, I can't tell, I expect they are cognizant of them.

Based on some clippings I've read recently, I'm optimistic that the team is looking to improve in these areas, and not just by adding a bench player. I think it's important for them to do so, that's all I'm saying.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 09:05 PM
Fans base opinions on what they see. None of us know what efforts were and are being made behind the scenes. So we look at the results.

Walt did a fine job addressing pitching this off-season. If not for injuries in the pen, I expect the improvement would have been even greater. This should be evident to most fans.

However, on the offense, I won't just throw praise at the FO. There were trends last season that were not adequately addressed. The team still lacks OBP, still lacks hitting against righties, still lacks enough good road hitters.

As much respect as I have for Walt and his group -- and I do -- as a fan I'm not going to ignore these issues and I think they are appropriately raised in threads such as this. How seriously the FO takes these deficiencies, I can't tell, I expect they are cognizant of them.

Based on some clippings I've read recently, I'm optimistic that the team is looking to improve in these areas, and not just by adding a bench player. I think it's important for them to do so, that's all I'm saying.I think your level of analysis goes a little bit deeper than that, don't you? It is fine to point out a team's weaknesses. I think it is unfair to frame one's analysis as "I see this, but apparently the Reds have not figured it out yet, because here they are." I consider their failure to be most likely too costly (Beltran), too risky (Beltran), and the LF tandem performing below expectations offensively. The leadoff spot, well, it goes that way sometimes. The one boat I think they missed there was when Michael Bourne was available. If you have a top of the order, high OBP guy, most teams tend to hold on to what the Reds need. That's been brought up ad nauseum here, and its true. I hope a solution to those needs are discovered or become available, but I certainly don't attribute not obtaining them to negligent failure, more circumstantial.

Mario-Rijo
06-21-2012, 09:59 PM
I laugh at your "good front office" potshot. Clearly, they are doing their job. I guess they don't have the best record in baseball to date, ignorant bums that they are. Clueless they are. Geesh.

The biggest weakness was pitching, which was addressed in the offseason, and voile, they are in 1st place, 8 games over, a positive RS/RA, the offense is trending up as the year wears on....incremental improvements, a deadline deal, a lefty bench bat seems a reasonable expectation, and we are just as good as anyone else in the league as is, so that should only improve our chances.

Normally we seem to see eye to eye but not on this one TR. The idea is to be in 1st at the end, this team won't be if it continues to hit the way they are as a whole. I said in the offseason hitting was a bigger weakness and I still believe it to be true. Bronson bounced back like I expected, Homer has continued to develop into a solid starter, etc. We swapped Volquez for Latos and so far it's been little help if any. Madson we never got the pleasure of seeing, Marshall has been good not great. No one they have brought in prior to S/T has improved anything over what we had last year. The offense has been a bit better than expected overall but I suspect alot of guys are on their way down. What we've had is a bit of luck in that Bruce carried the offense early, then Votto and Frazier, recently BP and Ludwick have really helped Votto. Good fortune to have someone hot almost the whole time, that isn't likely to continue. Some guys who haven't been awful or great to start the season are most likely headed for awful in the 2nd half.

Think OBP has been bad in front of Votto so far, just wait until the league has the book on Cozart being hacktastic. Or when Stubbs gets back and Frazier gets 1-2 starts a week. This offense has too many weaknesses and not enough strengths. If the Cards offense gets healthy expect to battle for a W/C spot at best.

Sea Ray
06-21-2012, 10:17 PM
True. It is a lot easier to poop on someone else's idea than to come up with one of your own.

Knock off the inflammatory language. I said that I hoped I was wrong. I also opined that it was unrealistic. That's not pooping on anyone's idea. :thumbdown:

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-21-2012, 10:25 PM
It's truly unbelievable how people jump on every word to attack the poster around here.

I am aware of the strides taken by the front office. I am aware of the numbers. You might be aware of the threads I do every ten games setting out these numbers. And I do know about the pitching improvement. I did hear about it somehow.

There is indeed time for the front office to act. I think Walt is a sound baseball man and I expect him to improve things.

But if the front office does not act, they will have blown an opportunity because there is a lot of talent on this team and the needs are completely obvious. It's not just random streakiness. A good front office should be addressing these very clear needs.

Walt has done anything but improve this team mid-season the past couple of years, even when the needs were as glaring as the sun in the sky. Again, pointing to 2010, the right June/July move could have made all the difference in the world. And it wouldn't have taken all that many more regular season wins to be able to avoid the Phillies and get the beatable Braves in the first round.

If the excuse this year is that our farm is too depleted to make a legitimate move, I'm gonna scream. Particularly in light of the fact that the last few years our farm has been stocked full of talent and we didn't make moves then either.

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 11:43 PM
Why is it that this place gets more depressing the higher we go in the standings? I hear more moaning and groaning when we're in first place than I do when we're in 5th or 6th. It just seems odd to me.

I know that the team has weaknesses. I think most everybody knows this. But how hard is it to look at the POSITIVES? We're in first place fellas...enjoy the ride! :beerme:

AtomicDumpling
06-22-2012, 01:04 AM
Knock off the inflammatory language. I said that I hoped I was wrong. I also opined that it was unrealistic. That's not pooping on anyone's idea. :thumbdown:

Lighten up Sea Ray. I wasn't even talking about you.

Any time someone suggests a trade idea here or anywhere else there are always a hundred people ready to pounce with their reasons for why it will never happen. Rather than beat down someone else's idea why not try to improve it or offer an idea of one's own that might be better? It is too easy to chime in with "It won't work" or "It ain't gonna happen". Yeah we already know that, but the fun of discussing trades is to play around with the what ifs. Why bother posting your idea if all the response you get to a trade idea is 40 people with no imagination eagerly waiting to post their "No way" response?

traderumor
06-22-2012, 10:17 AM
Normally we seem to see eye to eye but not on this one TR. The idea is to be in 1st at the end, this team won't be if it continues to hit the way they are as a whole. I said in the offseason hitting was a bigger weakness and I still believe it to be true. Bronson bounced back like I expected, Homer has continued to develop into a solid starter, etc. We swapped Volquez for Latos and so far it's been little help if any. Madson we never got the pleasure of seeing, Marshall has been good not great. No one they have brought in prior to S/T has improved anything over what we had last year. The offense has been a bit better than expected overall but I suspect alot of guys are on their way down. What we've had is a bit of luck in that Bruce carried the offense early, then Votto and Frazier, recently BP and Ludwick have really helped Votto. Good fortune to have someone hot almost the whole time, that isn't likely to continue. Some guys who haven't been awful or great to start the season are most likely headed for awful in the 2nd half.

Think OBP has been bad in front of Votto so far, just wait until the league has the book on Cozart being hacktastic. Or when Stubbs gets back and Frazier gets 1-2 starts a week. This offense has too many weaknesses and not enough strengths. If the Cards offense gets healthy expect to battle for a W/C spot at best.Yet, the offense is above league average in Runs per game despite a two month slump. Most of the offensive performers are just now upticking to their career norms. Are you sure your observations aren't skewed by years of watching piles of runs scored in an offensive era? Because right now the Reds, despite the slow start, have an above average offense in their league.

lidspinner
06-22-2012, 11:16 AM
I have to agree with traderumor here...we were putrid for awhile early and we are still in the above average category in offense....to me, that screams breakout or hot streak, you pick..I am going with breakout. a hot streak is something that lasts a few weeks, at least that is my opinion of it....we are breaking out and starting to play baseball the way its supposed to be played...sure we are still lacking in a few spots but I have seen more good things happen, such as Dusty playing small ball when he realizes we are not hitting...that is something Dusty has not done in the past few years....he normally sits back and waits on the gap shot or 2 run homer, he is letting this team play the game to win instead of trying not to lose and to me, that is a step in the right direction for someone like Dusty....if we continue this path I think we run away with the Central, if we fall back to below average then we fight for a wild card, either way I do not think this is a team that is bottom feeders.......we are a playoff team and its starting to show, young guys are playing above their years true, but when you have guys like Votto and BP to mirror then you are going to play above your age.

this Reds team is right where we wanted them to be, or at least right where we thought they would be...in contention for the Central by the all star break....barring a west coast nightmare and a red hot Pitt and Cards team we will be in contention by the break regardless of how well we finish out the 1st half....

If you would have scripted this out in march and asked if I would take it I would have jumped at it....Dusty and crew are giving our guys a chance to win and the players are giving Dusty a chance to manage a winning team, things are headed in the right direction

Kc61
06-22-2012, 11:35 AM
Yet, the offense is above league average in Runs per game despite a two month slump. Most of the offensive performers are just now upticking to their career norms. Are you sure your observations aren't skewed by years of watching piles of runs scored in an offensive era? Because right now the Reds, despite the slow start, have an above average offense in their league.

If the goal is to have an above average offense, the Reds have achieved that, mostly because of their prowess against left handed pitching. Against righties, the Reds are slightly below average on an OPS basis, with .717 the NL average and .713 the Reds number.

To me, above average is third place. It's not my goal.

And I don't buy into the idea that some improvement to "career norms" will meaningfully upgrade the offense. Scott Rolen isn't getting to his career norm. Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier don't have a career norm. Votto, Phillips, and Bruce are OPSing well ABOVE their career average OPSs. I don't know which players fans think are improving now to achieve a "career norm" that will help this offense meaningfully.

When all is said and done, the main goal should be to get a left fielder, a lefty who gets on base and can play every day or platoon with Ludwick. If the Reds can achieve that one thing (and perhaps add to the bench), I think the offense would be as good as we can reasonably expect for now. I'd settle for that.

Everyone needs to keep in mind that the Reds have perhaps the best hitter in baseball batting third. With Votto, the Reds can achieve a terrific offense. They need to give him the best opportunity to generate runs. He's signed to a long deal, so maybe it will take awhile, but I'd like them to get there.

REDREAD
06-22-2012, 12:16 PM
My guess is that if you asked Dusty why Hanigan bats eighth he would say that it's because Ryan is comfortable and successful there.

(And Dusty would be right about Hanigan's lack of speed. He is by far the slowest player on the team.)

Honestly, I think Hannigan batting 8th makes a lot of sense.
He will take the walk when the pitcher pitches around him to get to the pitcher (not all our guys will do that).
It's going to take 2 hits to score Hannigan from 1st in most cases (or a bunt and a hit).. Having the pitcher up next to bunt him over means that the pitcher has more opportunities for productive outs (vs batting a low OBP guy #8)... So now you have a #8 pitcher that is in theory getting into scoring position for the top of the order.

Hannigan has no power or speed. That really limits his offensive contribution. The OBP is great.. Not so sure he'd maintain it higher in the order though, as he does get pitched around a lot batting #8.

If Stubbs can continue his hot streak in the #2 slot when he comes off the DL, that will be a big upgrade from what Heisey has given us there.
Heisey is OPSing 500 from the #2 slot.. Stubbs, IIRC was at 832.
Yea, I know it is small samples sizes, no guarantees going forward, but Stubbs was a productive table setter at #2 until he got hurt. Hopefully he gives us similiar production when he gets back.

I think the Reds will add a LH bat at the trade deadline. Reports are that Walt has been looking. It's hard to make a trade this early in the season though. If the Reds can just tread water to stay in 1st place (or close) until the deadline, I think they will get a bat and not have to empty the farm for it.

traderumor
06-22-2012, 02:22 PM
If the goal is to have an above average offense, the Reds have achieved that, mostly because of their prowess against left handed pitching. Against righties, the Reds are slightly below average on an OPS basis, with .717 the NL average and .713 the Reds number.

To me, above average is third place. It's not my goal.

And I don't buy into the idea that some improvement to "career norms" will meaningfully upgrade the offense. Scott Rolen isn't getting to his career norm. Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier don't have a career norm. Votto, Phillips, and Bruce are OPSing well ABOVE their career average OPSs. I don't know which players fans think are improving now to achieve a "career norm" that will help this offense meaningfully.

When all is said and done, the main goal should be to get a left fielder, a lefty who gets on base and can play every day or platoon with Ludwick. If the Reds can achieve that one thing (and perhaps add to the bench), I think the offense would be as good as we can reasonably expect for now. I'd settle for that.

Everyone needs to keep in mind that the Reds have perhaps the best hitter in baseball batting third. With Votto, the Reds can achieve a terrific offense. They need to give him the best opportunity to generate runs. He's signed to a long deal, so maybe it will take awhile, but I'd like them to get there.Of course, but the context really is folks continuing to assert that the offense isn't "good," but the results keep on working out that they are in the top part of the league. Yes, they have some areas where an upgrade is possible, but what they have is still "good."

They were 1 in 2010, 2 in 2011, and now are edging back up to the top in 2012 after a slow start. At what point do they get to be considered "good"? Our pitching, defense and offense are all top 5 in the league, which has currently translated into the third best record in the league.

Sure, the goal is to be the best, is that even arguable?

Kc61
06-22-2012, 03:33 PM
Of course, but the context really is folks continuing to assert that the offense isn't "good," but the results keep on working out that they are in the top part of the league. Yes, they have some areas where an upgrade is possible, but what they have is still "good."

They were 1 in 2010, 2 in 2011, and now are edging back up to the top in 2012 after a slow start. At what point do they get to be considered "good"? Our pitching, defense and offense are all top 5 in the league, which has currently translated into the third best record in the league.

Sure, the goal is to be the best, is that even arguable?

I think the offense is seriously flawed. I'm sorry if that's not an optimistic statement. It's just my view. And I find it rather unacceptable when the team has Joey Votto hitting third.

I'm delighted with the work that's been done to improve the pitching and defense over the years. I don't mind Mat Latos giving up sixteen homers by June because I've lived through eras where an arm like Latos' would only enter Cincy as a visitor. I think the team is outstanding defensively, regardless of stats, there are some top fielders on this squad. Bruce, Stubbs, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Hanigan, just a wonderful defense.

But I am not satisfied with the offense, and no sense of overall optimism is going to change that. Nor do I think it will be fixed simply by the passage of time as the season progresses. It obviously upsets some posters that some of us have this critical view. Sorry about that.

This whole line of discussion could be ended by one or two modest player moves. I'm a bit concerned about facing the Giants and Dodgers on the road next week, so the time is right.

kaldaniels
06-22-2012, 03:39 PM
As much as some of you pick apart the Reds, I would suggest looking at each team in the league and pick out the offensive weaknesses of each one. It is easy to do and just maybe you will realize that on a relative scale, the Reds offense is not that bad.

traderumor
06-22-2012, 04:15 PM
I think the offense is seriously flawed. I'm sorry if that's not an optimistic statement. It's just my view. And I find it rather unacceptable when the team has Joey Votto hitting third.

I'm delighted with the work that's been done to improve the pitching and defense over the years. I don't mind Mat Latos giving up sixteen homers by June because I've lived through eras where an arm like Latos' would only enter Cincy as a visitor. I think the team is outstanding defensively, regardless of stats, there are some top fielders on this squad. Bruce, Stubbs, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Hanigan, just a wonderful defense.

But I am not satisfied with the offense, and no sense of overall optimism is going to change that. Nor do I think it will be fixed simply by the passage of time as the season progresses. It obviously upsets some posters that some of us have this critical view. Sorry about that.

This whole line of discussion could be ended by one or two modest player moves. I'm a bit concerned about facing the Giants and Dodgers on the road next week, so the time is right.Really? You've concluded that I oppose you for being critical? I oppose you because the facts continually lead to an offense performing right alongside the better offenses in the league over the course of a full season. I know your position, but here we are again in 2012, the numbers edging up to the top, which would make it 3 years running.

One final thought, and then I think its been bandied enough from my end. It is one thing to identify a team's weaknesses, many folks can do that. But filling holes without creating another, or multiple others, well, that is another thing altogether. In the theoretical world of "the Reds need a leadoff hitter" and "the Reds need a cleanup hitter," it is quite easy to criticize at that level, and quite frankly, it is in the realm of "who doesn't know that?" Now, what can you do about it? "I don't know, but do something." To quote a sign that was posted at a former workplace, "if it ain't broke, let's fix it til it is."

Feel free to have the last word.

traderumor
06-22-2012, 04:17 PM
As much as some of you pick apart the Reds, I would suggest looking at each team in the league and pick out the offensive weaknesses of each one. It is easy to do and just maybe you will realize that on a relative scale, the Reds offense is not that bad.Well said.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2012, 04:31 PM
Yet, the offense is above league average in Runs per game despite a two month slump. Most of the offensive performers are just now upticking to their career norms. Are you sure your observations aren't skewed by years of watching piles of runs scored in an offensive era? Because right now the Reds, despite the slow start, have an above average offense in their league.

I agree that they haven't been as bad as I expected as a whole to this point. That said I see it headed to brutal. Votto, Phillips & Hanigan are the only 3 guys on the team who have respectable AB's consistently and who have no glaring flaws in their mechanics/approach. When all you have is 2 guys and a platooner with a good idea/good discipline up there, bad times are on the horizon. Everyone else has their strengths but numerous or large weaknesses also. Rolen being back is a good thing even though he hasn't been much to shout about, he at least gives a reasonable AB and still plays great defense which we were missing in his absence. I think if I were Dusty I would bat him 2nd right now, I think he is one of the few capable of understanding how to take advantage of hitting in front of Votto, should make him and the Reds as a whole much better. But we know how it is to hope with Dusty there.

Kc61
06-22-2012, 04:34 PM
Really? You've concluded that I oppose you for being critical? I oppose you because the facts continually lead to an offense performing right alongside the better offenses in the league over the course of a full season. I know your position, but here we are again in 2012, the numbers edging up to the top, which would make it 3 years running.

One final thought, and then I think its been bandied enough from my end. It is one thing to identify a team's weaknesses, many folks can do that. But filling holes without creating another, or multiple others, well, that is another thing altogether. In the theoretical world of "the Reds need a leadoff hitter" and "the Reds need a cleanup hitter," it is quite easy to criticize at that level, and quite frankly, it is in the realm of "who doesn't know that?" Now, what can you do about it? "I don't know, but do something." To quote a sign that was posted at a former workplace, "if it ain't broke, let's fix it til it is."

Feel free to have the last word.

I'll accept your invitation, briefly. I'll address your question about what can be done about the concerns.

I think to truly enhance the Reds offense, big time (as Dusty would say) is a longer term project requiring a major cleanup hitter from the right side. Expensive, rare, not easy to come by. Maybe someday an in-house guy will emerge. I don't see it now, in-season, with a limited budget.

But it should be achievable to add two lefty hitters. A platoon left fielder. A pure bench guy. OBP types. Don't need power. Just to get some more men on base against RHP and give the middle of the order more to work with. Big stars not required.

Instead of all the righty swing and miss bats with good power, come up with a couple of contact hitters who will succeed against RHP.

Get me that, I'll be satisfied and will have to find something else to criticize.

Nice to chat with you.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2012, 04:51 PM
As much as some of you pick apart the Reds, I would suggest looking at each team in the league and pick out the offensive weaknesses of each one. It is easy to do and just maybe you will realize that on a relative scale, the Reds offense is not that bad.

I think as a unit we are one of the worst I have seen this year when it comes to pitch selection and plate discipline. Not to mention some of the biggest holes in swings around. In this new era of pitching and defense it is the teams who have those solid components and an intelligent approach offensively who will make the playoffs (if healthy). And when everyone is relatively healthy the Reds will fall below the top 4-5 teams in the league as a unit but due to their offensive issues which should arise. That is not to say their pitching is top notch either but I think they have alot more guys capable of performing to a reasonable expectation on that side of things than does the offense.

If healthy these are your playoff combatants.

St. Louis
Atlanta
Washington (Mostly because their pitching is uber talented, if they don't run out of steam)
L.A.
S.F. (See Washington)

Then the Reds, Phillies, Marlins, Brewers & D-Backs battling it out for a 1 game playoff. I personally think the Reds are as good or better than any of these teams but any of them are capable of beating us out.

I still don't know what to make of the Pirates & Mets, they don't seem to have enough pitching or hitting but are getting it done early on. Defense & timely hitting seems to be what is keeping them around but the dog days should stifle some of that timely hitting.

_Sir_Charles_
06-22-2012, 05:33 PM
Votto, Phillips & Hanigan are the only 3 guys on the team who have respectable AB's consistently and who have no glaring flaws in their mechanics/approach.

You might want to mention Bruce in that discussion too IMO. It's kinda hard to single out a player like Bruce when he's currently 4th in the NL in HR's and 5th in the NL in RBI's. For all of Jay's struggles...I'll take that anyday of the week.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2012, 06:18 PM
You might want to mention Bruce in that discussion too IMO. It's kinda hard to single out a player like Bruce when he's currently 4th in the NL in HR's and 5th in the NL in RBI's. For all of Jay's struggles...I'll take that anyday of the week.

Not hardly, I said respectable AB's consistently and Jay couldn't be the furthest thing from it. Let's not confuse fair production with good enough. Don't get me wrong, I'm not bagging on Jay I'm still a fan but it sure is getting old seeing him struggle so mightily for so long. He is a negative on the offense far too often. Actually I might take his current production if he would just not couple that with the opposite extreme, he needs to level out the really bad performances. All in all though with his defense and baserunning I keep him right where he is and let time be his teacher.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2012, 06:27 PM
To summarize I agree the Reds offense to this point has been better than expected and if they somehow managed to continue to play this well then that coupled with continued bad luck on the injury front for St. Louis they win the Central going away but they aren't good enough to take it all the way to the series this year. Unless all of the other better contenders have something go terribly wrong between now and then (which is certainly possible, just not very likely).

Now if they were to add a bat of significance or 2 then they improve their chances alot. I'm not thinking Carlos Quentin or the like but like KC61 has said a lefty platoon bat at the very least and possibly one more decent LH bat for depth purposes. I wish they could find themselves a good Switchy bat (Ben Zobrist is a guy I'd try to get but that is asking alot) but those are tough to find and gather.

Promote Navarro (remove Costanzo from the 40 man he is terrible) and send Mes down for some fine tuning. Though I'm not overly concerned with this move, I think it will help all slightly in the short term. Trade youth for Chase Headley who can play LF & 3B and is a potential successor to Rolen at 3rd. He's a guy I think gets an uptick playing at GABP as opposed to Petco is a SH and hits better from the left side with good OBP and he can run a bit.

Problem is Walt isn't likely to do anything because making the playoffs is all he is concerned with and right now and at the break he'll feel we are close enough not to have to make such a move. That's the wrong move, once again.

Kc61
06-22-2012, 07:06 PM
To summarize I agree the Reds offense to this point has been better than expected and if they somehow managed to continue to play this well then that coupled with continued bad luck on the injury front for St. Louis they win the Central going away but they aren't good enough to take it all the way to the series this year. Unless all of the other better contenders have something go terribly wrong between now and then (which is certainly possible, just not very likely).

Now if they were to add a bat of significance or 2 then they improve their chances alot. I'm not thinking Carlos Quentin or the like but like KC61 has said a lefty platoon bat at the very least and possibly one more decent LH bat for depth purposes. I wish they could find themselves a good Switchy bat (Ben Zobrist is a guy I'd try to get but that is asking alot) but those are tough to find and gather.

Promote Navarro (remove Costanzo from the 40 man he is terrible) and send Mes down for some fine tuning. Though I'm not overly concerned with this move, I think it will help all slightly in the short term. Trade youth for Chase Headley who can play LF & 3B and is a potential successor to Rolen at 3rd. He's a guy I think gets an uptick playing at GABP as opposed to Petco is a SH and hits better from the left side with good OBP and he can run a bit.

Problem is Walt isn't likely to do anything because making the playoffs is all he is concerned with and right now and at the break he'll feel we are close enough not to have to make such a move. That's the wrong move, once again.

I'm guessing that Walt is beating the bushes to make a move on offense. I do not think he wants to lose out to the Cards again this year. Of course, no guarantee he succeeds, and it would be too bad if he doesn't because this team has ability.

mth123
06-22-2012, 11:25 PM
I'm with KC. Reds offense is flawed. Want some facts? Here you go.

OPS at Home .789, 5th in the league.
OPS on the road. .691, 7th in the league.
OPS vs. LHP .811. First in the league.
OPS vs. RHP .713 Tenth in the league.

These stats reflect exactly who the Reds are IMO. A team overloaded with medium power RH bats who kill LHP and pump up their stats with cheap HRs at home. I think that's good enough to make the play-offs with the rest of the division generally being down and the Reds mixing in a decent rotation, a top bullpen and a top defense.

But, when it comes down to playing against good teams, in a home and home situation, who have talented players of their own and pitching good enough to be a play-off team, I think these guys will struggle. They need to diversify. They need guys who get on base instead of guys who rely so much on the HR to pump the OPS numbers. They need guys who can hit against RHP. The overload is Frazier, Cozart, Stubbs, Ludwick, Heisey, Cairo, Rolen, Mesoraco and Hanigan who all do most of their damege vs. LHP and, with the exception of Hanigan and possibly Rolen, are driving an acceptable OPS with some GABP aided slugging numbers.

This isn't really anything new. The Reds offense has been near the top at scoring runs, but they've been overly reliant on the longball for a long time and struggled with RHP last season too and that was before subtracting Alonso (.995 OPS vs. RHP) and Francisco (.820 OPS vs. RHP) from the equation.

HokieRed
06-22-2012, 11:34 PM
Got to address the first two spots in the order. Period.

GADawg
06-22-2012, 11:43 PM
well that put me in a bad mood....i could teach a little league team to get the run in from 3rd more often than not. My biggest pet peeve in the game.

Tom Servo
06-22-2012, 11:44 PM
They should have knocked a bum like Blackburn around the park.

kaldaniels
06-22-2012, 11:48 PM
I'm with KC. Reds offense is flawed. Want some facts? Here you go.

OPS at Home .789, 5th in the league.
OPS on the road. .691, 7th in the league.
OPS vs. LHP .811. First in the league.
OPS vs. RHP .713 Tenth in the league.

These stats reflect exactly who the Reds are IMO. A team overloaded with medium power RH bats who kill LHP and pump up their stats with cheap HRs at home. I think that's good enough to make the play-offs with the rest of the division generally being down and the Reds mixing in a decent rotation, a top bullpen and a top defense.

But, when it comes down to playing against good teams, in a home and home situation, who have talented players of their own and pitching good enough to be a play-off team, I think these guys will struggle. They need to diversify. They need guys who get on base instead of guys who rely so much on the HR to pump the OPS numbers. They need guys who can hit against RHP. The overload is Frazier, Cozart, Stubbs, Ludwick, Heisey, Cairo, Rolen, Mesoraco and Hanigan who all do most of their damege vs. LHP and, with the exception of Hanigan and possibly Rolen, are driving an acceptable OPS with some GABP aided slugging numbers.

This isn't really anything new. The Reds offense has been near the top at scoring runs, but they've been overly reliant on the longball for a long time and struggled with RHP last season too and that was before subtracting Alonso (.995 OPS vs. RHP) and Francisco (.820 OPS vs. RHP) from the equation.

I don't disagree that vs. RHP this team could be improved. But overall, they are 10th best in OPS in baseball...you broke it down, but failed to give the overall number its due.

oneupper
06-22-2012, 11:50 PM
They should have knocked a bum like Blackburn around the park.

This. This game should have never been close.

jhu1321
06-22-2012, 11:51 PM
well that put me in a bad mood....i could teach a little league team to get the run in from 3rd more often than not. My biggest pet peeve in the game.

We are completely reliant on the long ball to score. That is our main flaw. People get on base but then someone K's when all they have to do is put the ball in play. notice it's the two rookies (Cozart and Mes) who can't get the job done in the clutch.

GADawg
06-22-2012, 11:57 PM
going to bed...my wife is making me go because she can't stand me in this mood.

VottoFan54
06-23-2012, 12:00 AM
We are completely reliant on the long ball to score. That is our main flaw. People get on base but then someone K's when all they have to do is put the ball in play. notice it's the two rookies (Cozart and Mes) who can't get the job done in the clutch.

IMO, Cozart should have been up in a tie game, not being asked to get the tying run in. Rolen should not have been running from second base on the single by Ryan Hanigan when you can pinch run with either Mike Leake or Willie Harris on the bench. Dusty messed that one up. Cozart and Mes both were out on generous strike three calls that could've easily been called as balls, but you have to protect in that situation.

Kc61
06-23-2012, 12:05 AM
IMO, Cozart should have been up in a tie game, not being asked to get the tying run in. Rolen should not have been running from second base on the single by Ryan Hanigan when you can pinch run with either Mike Leake or Willie Harris on the bench. Dusty messed that one up. Cozart and Mes both were out on generous strike three calls that could've easily been called as balls, but you have to protect in that situation.

This is correct. The additional point, which I made in the game thread, is that the failure to pinch run is completely contrary to the bunt strategy.

The whole purpose of the bunt was to move the runner into SCORING position.

Once you bunt, you give up that out, you HAVE to put in a speedier runner so he can score on the single. Leaving Rolen at second base to run for himself is totally at odds with the bunt strategy.

If you are going to leave the slow guy on the bases, you might as well let Mesoraco hit and try for the home run. Why bother to move the baserunner to second if it will take a long hit to score him in any event? Why give up the out?

PuffyPig
06-23-2012, 12:10 AM
This is correct. The additional point, which I made in the game thread, is that the failure to pinch run is completely contrary to the bunt strategy.

The whole purpose of the bunt was to move the runner into SCORING position.

Once you bunt, you give up that out, you HAVE to put in a speedier runner so he can score on the single. Leaving Rolen at second base to run for himself is totally at odds with the bunt strategy.

If you are going to leave the slow guy on the bases, you might as well let Mesoraco hit and try for the home run. Why bother to move the baserunner to second if it will take a long hit to score him in any event? Why give up the out?

You are correct, but no one would have likely scored on that hit, as it was hit very hard and close enough to the fielder that the runner could not go right from the get go.

PLuse while Rolen isn't very fast he is a superb base runner.

Kc61
06-23-2012, 12:16 AM
You are correct, but no one would have likely scored on that hit, as it was hit very hard and close enough to the fielder that the runner could not go right from the get go.

PLuse while Rolen isn't very fast he is a superb base runner.

Hard for me to tell from TV if a faster runner might have scored. Your view could very well be correct, I wouldn't debate it.

Otherwise, it falls on Mesoraco in the sixth and Cozart in the ninth. Have to hit the fly ball.

Whatever, frustrating.

VottoFan54
06-23-2012, 12:17 AM
You are correct, but no one would have likely scored on that hit, as it was hit very hard and close enough to the fielder that the runner could not go right from the get go.

PLuse while Rolen isn't very fast he is a superb base runner.

I think he might've been able to score, but there really isn't any reason not to PR in that situation. You don't have to be a superb base runner to run from second, touch third, and then go home. Ryan Freel could do that.

PuffyPig
06-23-2012, 12:24 AM
I think he might've been able to score, but there really isn't any reason not to PR in that situation. You don't have to be a superb base runner to run from second, touch third, and then go home. Ryan Freel could do that.

What separates a superb baserunner from others is his instincts in knowing a ball will drop in for a hit.

You can't teach it. Stubbs has it, Rolen often does.

traderumor
06-23-2012, 12:26 AM
They should have knocked a bum like Blackburn around the park.4 runs in 5 innings is bad pitching (equiv. to over 7 ERA). Their manager was smart enough to remove his ineffective starter before he gave up more.

Tom Servo
06-23-2012, 12:34 AM
4 runs in 5 innings is bad pitching (equiv. to over 7 ERA). Their manager was smart enough to remove his ineffective starter before he gave up more.
They still should have gotten more in that 5 innings, especially when 2 of the runs came from from the first two batters of the game.

WVPacman
06-23-2012, 12:35 AM
This team is so frustrating to watch this year.I cannot understand how a team can look like world beaters running on all celinders with great managing,hitting,fielding,pitching.Then all of a sudden everything goes wrong and they look completely different from the team that was on a role and winning every other game.Everything goes wrong with bad managing,hitting,fielding and pitching.This team can forget about winning anything until they play with consistency.

VottoFan54
06-23-2012, 12:39 AM
What separates a superb baserunner from others is his instincts in knowing a ball will drop in for a hit.

You can't teach it. Stubbs has it, Rolen often does.

Maybe I underestimate that aspect of baserunning. I could see how that would make a big difference in scoring a run. Either way Harris could probably give Rolen a few steps head start and still easily beat him to home.

AtomicDumpling
06-23-2012, 02:48 AM
The Reds would likely have quite a few more runs on the season if they didn't have such a penchant for making outs on purpose. Giving up a valuable out only in an attempt to advance a runner 90 feet is almost always a stupid decision, especially when as so often happens you give up the out and still fail to advance the runner. Bunting the runner to 2nd base increases your chances of scoring one run by only a very small percentage -- and that is if the bunt is successful, which is far from a sure thing as we know from seeing bunt attempts fail many times this season already.

I would have had Valdez pinch run for Rolen and then let Mesoraco try to get on base rather than leaving Rolen at first and having Valdez pinch hit for Mesoraco. I would rather have three shots to get a run in from first base than two shots to drive in the runner from second base. A century's worth of real game data shows both strategies have the same chance of driving in that one runner, but the non-sacrifice strategy has a much higher chance of getting you multiple runs in the inning.

How smart is it to use a one run strategy when you need two runs to win? Even if your strategy works perfectly (which is unlikely) you still have only a 50% chance to win. If the game were tied in the 9th inning it would have been less harmful to intentionally make an out, but when you need to score twice to win it is just downright wrong mathematically and historically to attempt to sacrifice bunt the runner to second base. This was obviously not the first time this exact situation has arisen in the history of baseball. In fact this exact situation has happened thousands of times. If you look back at the box scores and tabulate how often each strategy was successful throughout history you would see that the sacrifice is less wise than hitting away. This Win Expectancy data has been published in a variety of places including The Book (Tom Tango), Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs.

mth123
06-23-2012, 05:07 AM
I don't disagree that vs. RHP this team could be improved. But overall, they are 10th best in OPS in baseball...you broke it down, but failed to give the overall number its due.

But they don't play games against overall numbers. They play games against a RHP or a LHP. They play games at home or they play games on the road. The majority of the games they play, they are doing it with the 10th best OPS in the National League. Sometimes they get by, especially at home, because they can hit home runs when the opposition makes a mistake. For me, watching makes it pretty obvious, but people want stats to back it up, so there they are. I think the real issiue is that a RH starting pitcher doesn't need to be "dominant" to dominate the Reds. They just need to mix it up a bit, avoid mistakes and stay away from Votto. Generally, when the Reds have success against a RH, its because the pitcher makes a mistake. These medium power guys flail away at that RH breaking ball that breaks away from them. Tonights game is a case in point. A RH pitcher with an ERA over 8 wouldn't have allowed much without making a mistake or two. I didn't see Heisey's HR, so I won't comment, but 2 runs came when Rolen hit a hanging curve for a 2 run HR. Mr. 8 ERA held the team to 2 runs otherwise. Since those runs also came on a HR, I suspect its a similar story, though I didn't see it.

There are two ways to address it IMO. One way they can address it is to go out and add a big bat or two who can hit against everybody and doesn't have to rely on the pitcher making a mistake to avoid looking feeble. Keep in mind though, that most players have platoon splits and RH bats that hit well against RHP are generally among the best, most difficult to acquire, highest salaried players in the game. I really don't think the Reds have the talent to spare to acquire some one like that. The top prospects are too far away from the majors to get somebody like that. The big leaguers who could command that type of a return are part of the answer and dealing them would just create holes. The rest just wouldn't command a return like that even if the Reds could afford to take on the salary.

The other way, the way KC seems to be suggesting, is to diversify a bit. Add a lefty on base guy or two. Some one whose success isn't based on killing LHP and hitting park aided HRs when the pitcher makes a mistake. A lefty bat with on base skills who hits well against RHP would seem the best way to sure up the weak spots. Somebody whose skillset plays in most parks and isn't so tied up on hitting 350 to 375 foot fly balls that depend on things like the way the wind is blowing and the park they are playing in to be successful. Nothing at all wrong with players like that. They can be useful and effective. Having a roster with 8 or 10 of the 13 position players all with the same profile though, leads to the splits posted earlier. The Reds can go get platoon guys who hit against RHP without giving up the farm (though they won't be free for the taking). If they are useless against LHP, so what? It just makes them less costly to acquire. The Reds have a ton of guys to play when a lefty is on the mound. Heck, they have 5 OF, 3 3B, 2 SS, and 2 catchers to choose from who all can be quite effective against lefty pitching. 1B and 2B are mainstays that won't be rotating out anyway. Exchange some of that glut for a guy or two who can get on base against RHP, and this will be a powerhouise team that not only can win its weak division, but will be better equipped to handle the opposition when the post season rolls around.

traderumor
06-23-2012, 09:12 AM
mth123, most hard hit balls are a result of pitcher mistakes at the MLB level. Pitchers have the advantage, and at this level, a pitcher who hits his spots will dominate and make hitters "look feeble." That is usually how I predict what type of night the starter is going to have. Focus the first few innings on how consistently the pitcher is hitting his spots and you'll likely be able to tell if he is going to be successful that outing.

So, to say the Reds offense is dependent on pitchers making mistakes is like saying the Reds only score runs when a runner touches home plate.

kaldaniels
06-23-2012, 09:47 AM
But they don't play games against overall numbers. They play games against a RHP or a LHP. They play games at home or they play games on the road. The majority of the games they play, they are doing it with the 10th best OPS in the National League. Sometimes they get by, especially at home, because they can hit home runs when the opposition makes a mistake. For me, watching makes it pretty obvious, but people want stats to back it up, so there they are. I think the real issiue is that a RH starting pitcher doesn't need to be "dominant" to dominate the Reds. They just need to mix it up a bit, avoid mistakes and stay away from Votto. Generally, when the Reds have success against a RH, its because the pitcher makes a mistake. These medium power guys flail away at that RH breaking ball that breaks away from them. Tonights game is a case in point. A RH pitcher with an ERA over 8 wouldn't have allowed much without making a mistake or two. I didn't see Heisey's HR, so I won't comment, but 2 runs came when Rolen hit a hanging curve for a 2 run HR. Mr. 8 ERA held the team to 2 runs otherwise. Since those runs also came on a HR, I suspect its a similar story, though I didn't see it.

There are two ways to address it IMO. One way they can address it is to go out and add a big bat or two who can hit against everybody and doesn't have to rely on the pitcher making a mistake to avoid looking feeble. Keep in mind though, that most players have platoon splits and RH bats that hit well against RHP are generally among the best, most difficult to acquire, highest salaried players in the game. I really don't think the Reds have the talent to spare to acquire some one like that. The top prospects are too far away from the majors to get somebody like that. The big leaguers who could command that type of a return are part of the answer and dealing them would just create holes. The rest just wouldn't command a return like that even if the Reds could afford to take on the salary.

The other way, the way KC seems to be suggesting, is to diversify a bit. Add a lefty on base guy or two. Some one whose success isn't based on killing LHP and hitting park aided HRs when the pitcher makes a mistake. A lefty bat with on base skills who hits well against RHP would seem the best way to sure up the weak spots. Somebody whose skillset plays in most parks and isn't so tied up on hitting 350 to 375 foot fly balls that depend on things like the way the wind is blowing and the park they are playing in to be successful. Nothing at all wrong with players like that. They can be useful and effective. Having a roster with 8 or 10 of the 13 position players all with the same profile though, leads to the splits posted earlier. The Reds can go get platoon guys who hit against RHP without giving up the farm (though they won't be free for the taking). If they are useless against LHP, so what? It just makes them less costly to acquire. The Reds have a ton of guys to play when a lefty is on the mound. Heck, they have 5 OF, 3 3B, 2 SS, and 2 catchers to choose from who all can be quite effective against lefty pitching. 1B and 2B are mainstays that won't be rotating out anyway. Exchange some of that glut for a guy or two who can get on base against RHP, and this will be a powerhouise team that not only can win its weak division, but will be better equipped to handle the opposition when the post season rolls around.

By looking at splits alone to judge and overall offense you fail to compensate for the fact that teams don't face left and right-handed pitchers and equal amounts.

kaldaniels
06-23-2012, 09:48 AM
But they don't play games against overall numbers. They play games against a RHP or a LHP. They play games at home or they play games on the road. The majority of the games they play, they are doing it with the 10th best OPS in the National League. Sometimes they get by, especially at home, because they can hit home runs when the opposition makes a mistake. For me, watching makes it pretty obvious, but people want stats to back it up, so there they are. I think the real issiue is that a RH starting pitcher doesn't need to be "dominant" to dominate the Reds. They just need to mix it up a bit, avoid mistakes and stay away from Votto. Generally, when the Reds have success against a RH, its because the pitcher makes a mistake. These medium power guys flail away at that RH breaking ball that breaks away from them. Tonights game is a case in point. A RH pitcher with an ERA over 8 wouldn't have allowed much without making a mistake or two. I didn't see Heisey's HR, so I won't comment, but 2 runs came when Rolen hit a hanging curve for a 2 run HR. Mr. 8 ERA held the team to 2 runs otherwise. Since those runs also came on a HR, I suspect its a similar story, though I didn't see it.

There are two ways to address it IMO. One way they can address it is to go out and add a big bat or two who can hit against everybody and doesn't have to rely on the pitcher making a mistake to avoid looking feeble. Keep in mind though, that most players have platoon splits and RH bats that hit well against RHP are generally among the best, most difficult to acquire, highest salaried players in the game. I really don't think the Reds have the talent to spare to acquire some one like that. The top prospects are too far away from the majors to get somebody like that. The big leaguers who could command that type of a return are part of the answer and dealing them would just create holes. The rest just wouldn't command a return like that even if the Reds could afford to take on the salary.

The other way, the way KC seems to be suggesting, is to diversify a bit. Add a lefty on base guy or two. Some one whose success isn't based on killing LHP and hitting park aided HRs when the pitcher makes a mistake. A lefty bat with on base skills who hits well against RHP would seem the best way to sure up the weak spots. Somebody whose skillset plays in most parks and isn't so tied up on hitting 350 to 375 foot fly balls that depend on things like the way the wind is blowing and the park they are playing in to be successful. Nothing at all wrong with players like that. They can be useful and effective. Having a roster with 8 or 10 of the 13 position players all with the same profile though, leads to the splits posted earlier. The Reds can go get platoon guys who hit against RHP without giving up the farm (though they won't be free for the taking). If they are useless against LHP, so what? It just makes them less costly to acquire. The Reds have a ton of guys to play when a lefty is on the mound. Heck, they have 5 OF, 3 3B, 2 SS, and 2 catchers to choose from who all can be quite effective against lefty pitching. 1B and 2B are mainstays that won't be rotating out anyway. Exchange some of that glut for a guy or two who can get on base against RHP, and this will be a powerhouise team that not only can win its weak division, but will be better equipped to handle the opposition when the post season rolls around.

By looking at splits alone to judge an overall offense you fail to compensate for the fact that teams don't face left and right-handed pitchers and equal amounts.

kaldaniels
06-23-2012, 09:49 AM
But they don't play games against overall numbers. They play games against a RHP or a LHP. They play games at home or they play games on the road. The majority of the games they play, they are doing it with the 10th best OPS in the National League. Sometimes they get by, especially at home, because they can hit home runs when the opposition makes a mistake. For me, watching makes it pretty obvious, but people want stats to back it up, so there they are. I think the real issiue is that a RH starting pitcher doesn't need to be "dominant" to dominate the Reds. They just need to mix it up a bit, avoid mistakes and stay away from Votto. Generally, when the Reds have success against a RH, its because the pitcher makes a mistake. These medium power guys flail away at that RH breaking ball that breaks away from them. Tonights game is a case in point. A RH pitcher with an ERA over 8 wouldn't have allowed much without making a mistake or two. I didn't see Heisey's HR, so I won't comment, but 2 runs came when Rolen hit a hanging curve for a 2 run HR. Mr. 8 ERA held the team to 2 runs otherwise. Since those runs also came on a HR, I suspect its a similar story, though I didn't see it.

There are two ways to address it IMO. One way they can address it is to go out and add a big bat or two who can hit against everybody and doesn't have to rely on the pitcher making a mistake to avoid looking feeble. Keep in mind though, that most players have platoon splits and RH bats that hit well against RHP are generally among the best, most difficult to acquire, highest salaried players in the game. I really don't think the Reds have the talent to spare to acquire some one like that. The top prospects are too far away from the majors to get somebody like that. The big leaguers who could command that type of a return are part of the answer and dealing them would just create holes. The rest just wouldn't command a return like that even if the Reds could afford to take on the salary.

The other way, the way KC seems to be suggesting, is to diversify a bit. Add a lefty on base guy or two. Some one whose success isn't based on killing LHP and hitting park aided HRs when the pitcher makes a mistake. A lefty bat with on base skills who hits well against RHP would seem the best way to sure up the weak spots. Somebody whose skillset plays in most parks and isn't so tied up on hitting 350 to 375 foot fly balls that depend on things like the way the wind is blowing and the park they are playing in to be successful. Nothing at all wrong with players like that. They can be useful and effective. Having a roster with 8 or 10 of the 13 position players all with the same profile though, leads to the splits posted earlier. The Reds can go get platoon guys who hit against RHP without giving up the farm (though they won't be free for the taking). If they are useless against LHP, so what? It just makes them less costly to acquire. The Reds have a ton of guys to play when a lefty is on the mound. Heck, they have 5 OF, 3 3B, 2 SS, and 2 catchers to choose from who all can be quite effective against lefty pitching. 1B and 2B are mainstays that won't be rotating out anyway. Exchange some of that glut for a guy or two who can get on base against RHP, and this will be a powerhouise team that not only can win its weak division, but will be better equipped to handle the opposition when the post season rolls around.

By looking at splits alone to judge an overall offense you fail to compensate for the fact that teams don't face left and right-handed pitchers and equal amounts.

mth123
06-23-2012, 09:51 AM
mth123, most hard hit balls are a result of pitcher mistakes at the MLB level. Pitchers have the advantage, and at this level, a pitcher who hits his spots will dominate and make hitters "look feeble." That is usually how I predict what type of night the starter is going to have. Focus the first few innings on how consistently the pitcher is hitting his spots and you'll likely be able to tell if he is going to be successful that outing.

So, to say the Reds offense is dependent on pitchers making mistakes is like saying the Reds only score runs when a runner touches home plate.

There are also times when a pitcher makes a good pitch and the hitter hits it anyway. Those are few and far between when our RH bats are facing a RH pitcher. The opposing RH needs to make a lot of mistakes for the Reds to capitalize on a few. They should have blown that guy away last night.

The parade of occassional power RH bats who all have the same weakness will only get longer when Drew Stubbs comes back. I'd be thrilled if the Reds could deal Stubbs or Heisey along with a minor leaguer for Denard Span. I'd gladly give up a couple minor leaguers for David Dejesus while shipping Ludwick off to make a spot for him. Same for Will Venable. A couple guys whose strengths complement the strengths of the guys already here instead of being so redundant with them would strengthen this team's overall roster even if the guy we need to move out to make room is still a pretty good player for the role he plays. It doesn't make sense to have 5 refrigerators in the kitchen with no oven, microwave or dishwasher. That's how this roster is built right now. A bunch of redundant guys taking up all the room while some things that are needed are missing. Until that is balanced a bit, this team is going to be subject to these run of the mill breaking ball righty pitchers holding them in check even when they only pitch so-so.

mth123
06-23-2012, 10:05 AM
By looking at splits alone to judge an overall offense you fail to compensate for the fact that teams don't face left and right-handed pitchers and equal amounts.

You liked that so much, you said it three times and I agree completely. I'd rather have a team that was first in OPS against RHP and 10th against the much less often seen LHP. The Reds are on the wrong side of the split and that is entirely the point. Better yet, lets just improve against RHP. Taking one of these guys away against lefty pitching won't hurt much because the Reds have another just like him to plug in.

As for overall, consider that the overall is skewed quite a bit by having the worlds best hitter on the team whose OPS is so high that he's 100 OPS points higher than the second place guy in the league. Unfortunately, he's still only up to the plate once in every 9 PAs. His results up the average quite a bit compared to the more human .950ish OPS number 3 hitter, but it doesn't change that most of the time there are 6 or 7 line-up spots in this line-up that are fairly easy for a RH pitcher to pitch to. Sometimes aggregate numbers hide the problem. So many spots in the order who can be handled rather easily is a big problem in spite of our 1B partially compensating with his other worldly stats.

traderumor
06-23-2012, 02:11 PM
There are also times when a pitcher makes a good pitch and the hitter hits it anyway. Those are few and far between when our RH bats are facing a RH pitcher. The opposing RH needs to make a lot of mistakes for the Reds to capitalize on a few. They should have blown that guy away last night.

The parade of occassional power RH bats who all have the same weakness will only get longer when Drew Stubbs comes back. I'd be thrilled if the Reds could deal Stubbs or Heisey along with a minor leaguer for Denard Span. I'd gladly give up a couple minor leaguers for David Dejesus while shipping Ludwick off to make a spot for him. Same for Will Venable. A couple guys whose strengths complement the strengths of the guys already here instead of being so redundant with them would strengthen this team's overall roster even if the guy we need to move out to make room is still a pretty good player for the role he plays. It doesn't make sense to have 5 refrigerators in the kitchen with no oven, microwave or dishwasher. That's how this roster is built right now. A bunch of redundant guys taking up all the room while some things that are needed are missing. Until that is balanced a bit, this team is going to be subject to these run of the mill breaking ball righty pitchers holding them in check even when they only pitch so-so.Sure, and sometimes hits it hard, but as a general rule, pitchers making pitches is how most outs result. Heck, hitting is so hard at this level that I would venture to say that the number of mistakes pitchers get away with exceeds the number that are hard hit. To say the Reds need to have hitters that can hit non-mistake pitches better--well, even if that is an identifiable skill, good luck finding how to even identify them.

And even with that thought, I think you beg the question that your assertion is true of the Reds current hitters. Are their successes the result of pitcher's mistakes? How do you determine that?

Sounds like a bigger project than getting accurate fielding ratings.

jhu1321
06-23-2012, 03:08 PM
I'm not smart enough to absorb 90% of these last 10 posts. Just put the ball in play (literally) 2 times and we probably win last night. I was troubled by the announcers stating that in the ninth the defense was playing so deep that had Cozart laid down a bun,t Rolen could have walked home. Yet Cozart comes up and hacks at the first two pitches he sees. That's a troubling trend for a) a lead off hitter b) a team that has problems manufacturing runs. These types of at bats are all too common for the Reds this year, well...... and last year. I'm having trouble trusting anyone in clutch situations other than Votto, Phillips (lately) and Hannigan.

Kc61
06-23-2012, 04:03 PM
I'm not smart enough to absorb 90% of these last 10 posts. Just put the ball in play (literally) 2 times and we probably win last night. I was troubled by the announcers stating that in the ninth the defense was playing so deep that had Cozart laid down a bun,t Rolen could have walked home. Yet Cozart comes up and hacks at the first two pitches he sees. That's a troubling trend for a) a lead off hitter b) a team that has problems manufacturing runs. These types of at bats are all too common for the Reds this year, well...... and last year. I'm having trouble trusting anyone in clutch situations other than Votto, Phillips (lately) and Hannigan.

I think many of these posts are saying the same thing you have, but in different ways.

Reds lack OBP. They don't get men on base sufficiently well. Two reasons. Impatient hitters. Low contact hitters. (Some posters might say hitters that aren't fundamentally sound, rely too much on guess hitting. Similar concept.)

The need for higher OBP lefty bats to face righties is to help remedy this problem. Reds don't need power from the left side, they have Votto and Bruce. But against RHP, which they face usually, a solid lefty hitter will make more contact. That's the problem with the swing and miss righty guys.

The Reds have lots of power. A better cleanup hitter would be great, but the additional power is not needed. The Reds consistently have high slugging rates.

So, many of us are saying the same thing in different ways.

Last night was a very annoying game. Let's hope today is better with Cueto on the mound.

edabbs44
06-23-2012, 04:34 PM
For those who are worried about the team's RHP OPS, it is true that they are 9th in that category. However, there are only 22 pts separating them from 3rd place, meaning a hot streak could make a huge difference.

Also, there are two teams who are materially far ahead of everyone else. One team is 15 games out of first and the other is 3 games behind Cincy. If things were to stay the same, the Reds might not be at that much of a disadvantage in October.

Kc61
06-23-2012, 04:54 PM
For those who are worried about the team's RHP OPS, it is true that they are 9th in that category. However, there is only 22 pts separating them from 3rd place, meaning a hot streak could make a huge difference.

Also, there are two teams who are materially far ahead of everyone else. One team is 15 games out of first and the other is 3 games behind Cincy. If things were to stay the same, the Reds might not be at that much of a disadvantage in October.

Last year for the season Reds OBP v. righties was around league average (actually a bit higher than league average). Same this year (a bit below league average). IMO unlikely to change unless changes are made.

mth123
06-23-2012, 05:36 PM
For those who are worried about the team's RHP OPS, it is true that they are 9th in that category. However, there are only 22 pts separating them from 3rd place, meaning a hot streak could make a huge difference.

Also, there are two teams who are materially far ahead of everyone else. One team is 15 games out of first and the other is 3 games behind Cincy. If things were to stay the same, the Reds might not be at that much of a disadvantage in October.

Again, the Reds are 9th with Joey Votto putting up an OPS of 1.192 vs, RHP. Brandon Phillips, a guy who traditionally struggles against RHP, is second at .847. I don't expect that to continue. If anything, I'd expect a cold streak. They play their home games at GABP. They pump the numbers with cheap Home Runs. In that context, the team figure of .715 would seem to overstate the Reds actual ability. There are a lot of outs in that line-up when a Righty is opposing the Reds.

No reason to keep four RH OF with the same profile (Ludwick, Heisey, Stubbs and Frazier) against RHP. Why are so many so resistant to the idea of adding a complementary skillset to make the overall product stronger? I think its a glaring need that can be easily determined by watching the games. The fact that the stats back it up is actually not that important to me. I think the stats show the Reds to be better against RHP than the personnel on the roster would suggest they should be.

traderumor
06-23-2012, 08:37 PM
Again, the Reds are 9th with Joey Votto putting up an OPS of 1.192 vs, RHP. Brandon Phillips, a guy who traditionally struggles against RHP, is second at .847. I don't expect that to continue. If anything, I'd expect a cold streak. They play their home games at GABP. They pump the numbers with cheap Home Runs. In that context, the team figure of .715 would seem to overstate the Reds actual ability. There are a lot of outs in that line-up when a Righty is opposing the Reds.

No reason to keep four RH OF with the same profile (Ludwick, Heisey, Stubbs and Frazier) against RHP. Why are so many so resistant to the idea of adding a complementary skillset to make the overall product stronger? I think its a glaring need that can be easily determined by watching the games. The fact that the stats back it up is actually not that important to me. I think the stats show the Reds to be better against RHP than the personnel on the roster would suggest they should be.I'm realllllllllllllllllllllly tired of hearing about "cheap" HRs at GABP. A homer is a homer and it counts for a run. For every "cheap" homer, you lose a double or triple. Its just not that accurate of a statement. The Reds had horrendous mashers and some serious sluggers when the ballpark opened, so the "Great American Smallpark" myth is still spoken of by some.

No one is resistant to anything, for me personally, I am at "yea, I get it" with you and KC61. I think you've both made your point and it has now just turned into a hobby horse.

Kc61
06-23-2012, 08:49 PM
I'm realllllllllllllllllllllly tired of hearing about "cheap" HRs at GABP. A homer is a homer and it counts for a run. For every "cheap" homer, you lose a double or triple. Its just not that accurate of a statement. The Reds had horrendous mashers and some serious sluggers when the ballpark opened, so the "Great American Smallpark" myth is still spoken of by some.

No one is resistant to anything, for me personally, I am at "yea, I get it" with you and KC61. I think you've both made your point and it has now just turned into a hobby horse.

I'll take it one further. If the Reds are built to take advantage of a home field, that's good for them. It's no accident that so many of the Yankees' great sluggers have been lefty power hitters taking advantage of the short right field.

Only thing is that the mix of players needs to translate on the road. We'll learn a lot when the Reds play in the big west coast ball parks starting pretty soon.

I hope Scott Rolen continues to feel well and play well. He can be a huge help on the West Coast. Guy is a tremendous pro, he can hit anywhere, he won't swing for the GABP fences while playing in Petco Park. And he's a righty who hits righties.

I also like the West Coast games because I live in the east and I can do something else in the evening and still watch the ballgame.

mth123
06-23-2012, 09:31 PM
I'm realllllllllllllllllllllly tired of hearing about "cheap" HRs at GABP. A homer is a homer and it counts for a run. For every "cheap" homer, you lose a double or triple. Its just not that accurate of a statement. The Reds had horrendous mashers and some serious sluggers when the ballpark opened, so the "Great American Smallpark" myth is still spoken of by some.

No one is resistant to anything, for me personally, I am at "yea, I get it" with you and KC61. I think you've both made your point and it has now just turned into a hobby horse.

Fine. What would you like to discuss on a Reds forum? Start a thread. I'm sure it will be riveting and not the same old "hobby horse."

How about Chapman to the Rotation? Adam Dunn is always good for an interesting exchange. Haven't had a thread about uniforms in a while. Josh Hamilton and the trade for Volquez? Want to to discuss BABIP, Pythag and the value of advanced stats? UZR? WAR? WOBA? We could debate the annoucers or pick the all stars. There are threads for all that.

This thread is about the offense. IMO, the Reds lack of balance, their splits and the inflation factor on the Reds numbers from its home park are all very related to the topic. Don't want to discuss that stuff, you should probably stay out of a thread titled "The offense."

traderumor
06-23-2012, 10:19 PM
Fine. What would you like to discuss on a Reds forum? Start a thread. I'm sure it will be riveting and not the same old "hobby horse."

How about Chapman to the Rotation? Adam Dunn is always good for an interesting exchange. Haven't had a thread about uniforms in a while. Josh Hamilton and the trade for Volquez? Want to to discuss BABIP, Pythag and the value of advanced stats? UZR? WAR? WOBA? We could debate the annoucers or pick the all stars. There are threads for all that.

This thread is about the offense. IMO, the Reds lack of balance, their splits and the inflation factor on the Reds numbers from its home park are all very related to the topic. Don't want to discuss that stuff, you should probably stay out of a thread titled "The offense."I guess I'm looking for new developments, a new position, some new insight. Shout me down to "stay out then," but don't you get tired of stating this position? Is that all you have?

mth123
06-23-2012, 10:40 PM
I guess I'm looking for new developments, a new position, some new insight. Shout me down to "stay out then," but don't you get tired of stating this position? Is that all you have?

Actually, I think this would be a 95 win team if this issue were to be addressed. It may not be all I've got, but its the key issue at this point IMO. I'm tired of the Reds being downtrodden to the point where we think a high 80's, low 90's win team is good. Those are also rans in my book who are a cut below the real powers. If it takes dealing one of those AA starters or one of the redundant pieces like Stubbs or Heisey to get them to the next level where a .600 winnng percentage is a reasonable expectation, I want them to do it. I'm actually pretty shocked that there are a number of fans on here who seem satisfied with the status quo. I think its obvious that its a weakness a play-off opponent can attack fairly easily. I'll keep shouting it when the subject comes up. A thread titled "The offense" with an initial post that seems to be stating that all is well and asks directly "how worried are you now?" seems the proper place IMO.

kaldaniels
06-23-2012, 11:08 PM
As assembled the Cincinnati Reds, team-wise, are just about exactly middle-of-the-pack when it comes to facing RHP. There is room for improvement, and it certainly would improve their post-season odds. However, every other facet of the team (pitching,defense,LHP splits) is well above league average, which is why they are currently in first place.

That's simply saying how it is, without any of the usual drama. Let's hope the proper moves are made.

mth123
06-23-2012, 11:18 PM
As assembled the Cincinnati Reds, team-wise, are just about exactly middle-of-the-pack when it comes to facing RHP. There is room for improvement, and it certainly would improve their post-season odds. However, every other facet of the team (pitching,defense,LHP splits) is well above league average, which is why they are currently in first place.

That's simply saying how it is, without any of the usual drama. Let's hope the proper moves are made.

So, the Reds are 9th in OPS against RHP. Assuming no moves, would you expect that to improve? I see a team with 3 guys hitting well above where we should expect (Votto, Phillips and Frazier) against RHP, with only Rolen likely to improve much (say 75 OPS points). The rest, pathetic as they are, are inflated by the home park. I think they look a lot better on the stat sheet than they actually are.

kaldaniels
06-23-2012, 11:31 PM
So, the Reds are 9th in OPS against RHP. Assuming no moves, would you expect that to improve? I see a team with 3 guys hitting well above where we should expect (Votto, Phillips and Frazier) against RHP, with only Rolen likely to improve much (say 75 OPS points). The rest, pathetic as they are, are inflated by the home park. I think they look a lot better on the stat sheet than they actually are.

Perfect example of a biased post to support your opinion.

Without looking, I'm gonna go with your statment that Votto/Phillips/Fraizer are overperforming. Fine.

But what about Ludwick vs RHP (last 3 years .742 OPS, .689 this year)
Ditto Heisey (.885 in 2010-11, .659 this year)
Ditto Stubbs (.697 last 3, .619 this year)

Why didn't you mention that?

Aren't they going to improve? If not, why should we expect Votto/Phillips/Fraizer to not sustain their current numbers?

Again, constantly bemoaning the league average RHP splits of a first place team is a bit much, especially since I wager every RZ member would like an upgrade.

mth123
06-23-2012, 11:52 PM
Perfect example of a biased post to support your opinion.

Without looking, I'm gonna go with your statment that Votto/Phillips/Fraizer are overperforming. Fine.

But what about Ludwick vs RHP (last 3 years .742 OPS, .689 this year)
Ditto Heisey (.885 in 2010-11, .659 this year)
Ditto Stubbs (.697 last 3, .619 this year)

Why didn't you mention that?

Aren't they going to improve? If not, why should we expect Votto/Phillips/Fraizer to not sustain their current numbers?

Again, constantly bemoaning the league average RHP splits of a first place team is a bit much, especially since I wager every RZ member would like an upgrade.

Phillips has a long established pattern of mediocrity against RHP. I don't expect his current success to continue. Votto has the best chance to maintain where he is, but his numbers are so unusually good, I just don't think the team should count on him continuing to produce at such a high level that he'll compensate for two-thirds of the line-up being auto outs. Frazier has an obvious penchant for chasing that breaking ball that breaks way from him. The league will catch-up. Maybe he'll adjust, but if I'm roster building, I sure as heck don't count on it. Heisey has a chance to improve I suppose, but he was more of a lefty killer in the minors and I suspect the real Heisey is showing now. He just swings at everything these days. Ludwick was a guy I had hopes for, using the very logic that you are using. Watching him though, I just don't see it. Wild swings and lots of chasing that outside curve.

Stubbs looks like a typical shooting star who comes up and makes a splash at first but just doesn't have the ability to adjust once the league has him pegged. I don't think we'll ever see those 2009 or 2010 numbers again from him. Heck, I don't think he'll ever match 2011 (.686 OPS with a .636 vs RHP) again. He can be a useful role player. He kills lefty pitching since the breaking ball isn't going against him and his speed and defense are top notch. He's not going to help the offense the 70% or so times when a RH starter is on the mound. He'll run into one on occassion and GABP will help him some, but of the four RH OF bats, he's the poorest bet to do anything with a RHP on the mound IMO. He's a 5th OF IMO who is best suited for 200 PAs with a lot of late inning defensive appearances and some time pinch running.

Actually, the Reds do have a RH bat that I think could improve significantly against RHP if the situation was different, but Devin Mesoraco just isn't going to get the PT to get going IMO. I think he'll be that RH threat that hits everybody at some point down the road, but the 2012 team needs an acquisition to get that improvement IMO.

HokieRed
06-24-2012, 12:06 AM
Today again we got 1 for 9 out of the two players hitting in front of arguably the game's best hitter. This continues to be absurd. With this in mind, and assuming that Rolen is going to stay healthy and will continue improving and that Ludwick's upward trend continues, I propose the following lineup.
1. Phillips 2b
2. Hanigan C
3. Votto 1b
4. Bruce CF
5. Frazier LF
6. Rolen or Ludwick 3b or RF
7. the other of Rolen or Ludwick
8. Cozart SS
Heisey to play as 4th outfielder

mth123
06-24-2012, 12:21 AM
Kal,

As for your final paragraph, we'll disagree I suppose. The Reds are in first place sure. I had them for 92 wins before the season. I just don't think 92 wins is a team to be satisfied with.

As for what I'm bemoaning, this thread is about the offense. The initial post was implying that all is well and directly asked "are you still worried?". I don't think that sounds like a guy who wants a change. Another poster in Today's game thread stated that a change wasn't necessary. I'm not seeing where every poster on RZ would like an upgrade.

My repsonse to the initial post is yes. Sorry if you think I'm "bemoaning" something, but I'm discussing it in a thread that directly asked the question.

mth123
06-24-2012, 12:24 AM
Today again we got 1 for 9 out of the two players hitting in front of arguably the game's best hitter. This continues to be absurd. With this in mind, and assuming that Rolen is going to stay healthy and will continue improving and that Ludwick's upward trend continues, I propose the following lineup.
1. Phillips 2b
2. Hanigan C
3. Votto 1b
4. Bruce CF
5. Frazier LF
6. Rolen or Ludwick 3b or RF
7. the other of Rolen or Ludwick
8. Cozart SS
Heisey to play as 4th outfielder

Still would strongly prefer an acquisition to play CF or LF, but any plan that puts Heisey and Stubbs in their proper 4th and 5th OF roles is a step in the right direction IMO.:thumbup:

kaldaniels
06-24-2012, 12:58 AM
Kal,

As for your final paragraph, we'll disagree I suppose. The Reds are in first place sure. I had them for 92 wins before the season. I just don't think 92 wins is a team to be satisfied with.

As for what I'm bemoaning, this thread is about the offense. The initial post was implying that all is well and directly asked "are you still worried?". I don't think that sounds like a guy who wants a change. Another poster in Today's game thread stated that a change wasn't necessary. I'm not seeing where every poster on RZ would like an upgrade.

My repsonse to the initial post is yes. Sorry if you think I'm "bemoaning" something, but I'm discussing it in a thread that directly asked the question.

Agree to disagree sounds good. Now lets put our differences aside and enjoy the offense thrash a LHP tommorrow. :beerme:

Kc61
06-24-2012, 02:25 AM
A prediction. If Scott Rolen continues to hit as he did the last few days, he'll be back in the cleanup spot soon with Phillips leading off.

The Reds have to understand that Cozart and Heisey aren't tablesetters. When Stubbs comes back, I think he'll hit second. He's done better hitting second (who wouldn't hitting ahead of the great Votto) and I think he'll stick there for awhile.

But there is no lead off hitter other than Phillips on this ballclub. Not that Brandon is a true leadoff man, but he's the closest the Reds have by far.

A resurgence by Rolen provides the opportunity to get Brandon back to the top of the lineup.

While I'd prefer an acquisition, if it's Phillips, Stubbs, Votto, Rolen, and Bruce - with a healthy, productive Rolen - it's ok by me. I think the Reds offense would improve with such a lineup.

Then you'd probably have Ludwick/Frazier hitting sixth, Cozart seventh, catcher eighth.

When Rolen rests, probably Ludwick/Frazier would get spot duty at cleanup.

That's my prediction. My other prediction is that Rolen rests on Sunday against the Twins.

Raisor
06-24-2012, 08:36 AM
As for what I'm bemoaning, this thread is about the offense. The initial post was implying that all is well and directly asked "are you still worried?"n.

Never said or implied that "all is well", I gave a couple of examples on how much the offense has improved over the season, and was sincerly asking if and what people were worried about"

PuffyPig
06-24-2012, 09:03 AM
Stubbs looks like a typical shooting star who comes up and makes a splash at first but just doesn't have the ability to adjust once the league has him pegged. I don't think we'll ever see those 2009 or 2010 numbers again from him. Heck, I don't think he'll ever match 2011 (.686 OPS with a .636 vs RHP) again.

That's a little extreme.

He hits a double in his first AB and he'll match last year's OPS.

And with a BABIP 46 points below last year's number, he's actually a good bet to surpass last years OPS I would suggest.

HokieRed
06-24-2012, 10:26 AM
Still would strongly prefer an acquisition to play CF or LF, but any plan that puts Heisey and Stubbs in their proper 4th and 5th OF roles is a step in the right direction IMO.:thumbup:

Agree. I am coming to the conclusion that I don't want to see either Heisey or Stubbs starting in the 2013 outfield. They're redundant. We can possibly afford to have one of them, but I'd prefer neither start. The FO must be coming to the same conclusion; I think we won't see both of them on the 2013 opening day roster. We can perhaps have one, but not both. While I think we need immediate help, especially from the left side, I'm afraid we can't make the kind of acquisition that will be good enough to help now and really move the team up next year. So I look to move Stubbs now, as the one who has more value, for a starting pitcher, convert Chapman to the rotation in the offseason, and make a deal involving one of the starters (anyone not named Cueto, but certainly including Latos) for a big bat in the offseason--either outfielder or 3b, with Frazier going to left if we get a 3b.

Kc61
06-24-2012, 12:31 PM
While I think we need immediate help, especially from the left side, I'm afraid we can't make the kind of acquisition that will be good enough to help now and really move the team up next year. So I look to move Stubbs now, as the one who has more value, for a starting pitcher, convert Chapman to the rotation in the offseason, and make a deal involving one of the starters (anyone not named Cueto, but certainly including Latos) for a big bat in the offseason--either outfielder or 3b, with Frazier going to left if we get a 3b.

I know your focus is perhaps more on CFers, who may be tougher to acquire, but I don't see why the Reds can't pick up an outfielder who can help in-season.

I don't think the Reds need more power hitters. I mean, a big righty cleanup hitter would be great, but I don't see it as a necessity. Reds have a lot of power.

Reds also don't need a star player necessarily. Votto and Bruce are stars, Phillips is a star IMO, Rolen if healthy can still play like a star. And they have stars in the making among the younger guys.

IMO the Reds problem is among the complimentary players. I won't repeat my rant about the kind of players who are missing, the specific skill sets, but the QUALITY of the players need only be "solid". Spectacular guys? We have plenty of those.

With this ballclub, a platoon player and a bench player would make a lot of difference, to shift the emphasis a bit to a more contact/patient approach from a free swinging power approach.

I don't see why the Reds can't acquire two fairly solid OBP men, one a platooner, one a bench player. Not big hitters, not major power guys. Perhaps some speed, but it's not a necessity. I really do feel that acquisitions at this level would help guys like Votto and Bruce produce more runs.

Kc61
06-24-2012, 12:31 PM
double post, ignore.

VR
06-24-2012, 12:44 PM
A prediction. If Scott Rolen continues to hit as he did the last few days, he'll be back in the cleanup spot soon with Phillips leading off.



Will be interested to see what he can do vs Greinke and the SF staff......legit ML pitching.

_Sir_Charles_
06-24-2012, 12:53 PM
Kal,

As for your final paragraph, we'll disagree I suppose. The Reds are in first place sure. I had them for 92 wins before the season. I just don't think 92 wins is a team to be satisfied with.

As for what I'm bemoaning, this thread is about the offense. The initial post was implying that all is well and directly asked "are you still worried?". I don't think that sounds like a guy who wants a change. Another poster in Today's game thread stated that a change wasn't necessary. I'm not seeing where every poster on RZ would like an upgrade.

My repsonse to the initial post is yes. Sorry if you think I'm "bemoaning" something, but I'm discussing it in a thread that directly asked the question.

I guessing you're referring to me on the gamethread part. Let me clarify. I'd be happy with an upgrade at ANY position. If you can find a player better than Votto...I'll take him. But my position is this....

1. I don't think the Reds make a deal at the deadline. The extra wildcard will keep more teams holding onto players thinking they're still in it. Resulting in fewer players available, thus driving the prices up. We are not in a buyers position. Our salary is pretty much maxed out, we used nearly all of our trading chips in the high minors. Trading away mlb players will cause a hole while fixing a hole.

2. Since I don't see us adding from outside, that means going with what we have. And I firmly believe that we can substantially help our offense by doing what many refer to re-arranging the deck chairs. Normally this does little to no good. But when our lineups are routinely so far away from optimal, it'll help us much more than the average team. Moving Phillips OUT of the cleanup role might not seem like such a great idea NOW since he's doing well, but I still think it is. Simply put, we don't have another player who's proven to be successful leading off. Bruce is the 4 hole hitter, lefty-lefty be damned. Hanigan hitting higher in the order to put better use of his OBP would be highly recommended too. I'd hit Ryan second. Yep, SECOND.

So no, I'm not against improving the club, but I certainly don't think we're in dire need of ANYTHING. I think we have some of the answers in house already...we're just using those parts ineffectively.

westofyou
06-24-2012, 12:55 PM
Will be interested to see what he can do vs Greinke and the SF staff......legit ML pitching.

Big gaps and cold air in SF, be in the high 50's at night, low 60's in the day.

I'll be at all 4 myself

westofyou
06-24-2012, 12:58 PM
92 wins is nothing to be satisfied with? (I picked 86 myself)

The Reds have had 15 seasons with as many as 92 wins, 11.6% of their existence, I'd say that 92 wins is pretty impressive for this franchise myself

mth123
06-24-2012, 02:28 PM
That's a little extreme.

He hits a double in his first AB and he'll match last year's OPS.

And with a BABIP 46 points below last year's number, he's actually a good bet to surpass last years OPS I would suggest.

We'll see.

mth123
06-24-2012, 02:29 PM
92 wins is nothing to be satisfied with? (I picked 86 myself)

The Reds have had 15 seasons with as many as 92 wins, 11.6% of their existence, I'd say that 92 wins is pretty impressive for this franchise myself

Sure, but 92 wins used to put you 3rd or 4th in the league and watching the post season on TV. Just because MLB lowered the bar, doesn't mean we should be satisfied with that IMO.

mth123
06-24-2012, 02:32 PM
Never said or implied that "all is well", I gave a couple of examples on how much the offense has improved over the season, and was sincerly asking if and what people were worried about"

Put me down for yes.

kaldaniels
06-24-2012, 02:33 PM
Sure, but 92 wins used to put you 3rd or 4th in the league and watching the post season on TV. Just because MLB lowered the bar, doesn't mean we should be satisfied with that IMO.

I would think without looking over the past 10-15 years, 92 wins would put you in the playoffs more often than not?

mth123
06-24-2012, 02:37 PM
I would think without looking over the past 10-15 years, 92 wins would put you in the playoffs more often than not?

Yeah. I want to win the play-offs and the world series. I want to win 100 games. You're younger than me. I remember when 92 wins hardly ever made it. That's the whole point about lowering the bar and being satisfied with flaws. This particular weakness can be exploited in a play-off series where match-ups are manipulated by choice rather than the luck of the schedule as in the regular season and ample off days allow the right pen guys to be rested enough to pitch in most of the games.

kaldaniels
06-24-2012, 02:41 PM
Yeah. I want to win the play-offs and the world series. I want to win 100 games. You're younger than me. I remember when 92 wins hardly ever made it. That's the whole point about lowering the bar and being satisfied with flaws. This particular weakness can be exploited in a play-off series where match-ups are manipulated by choice rather than the luck of the schedule as in the regular season and ample off days allow the right pen guys to be rested enough to pitch in most of the games.

Would the Dodgers sit Kershaw to exploit us? The Nats Gio? And so on.

kaldaniels
06-24-2012, 02:45 PM
Mth, of course you strive for 100 wins. But to expect that is simply setting yourself up for disappointment.

mth123
06-24-2012, 02:51 PM
Mth, of course you strive for 100 wins. But to expect that is simply setting yourself up for disappointment.

No you can't expect it, but looking at a team that's on the verge with an obvious flaw that wouldn't take much to significantly improve would hardly be striving if you're satisfied with status quo. That's the whole point IMO. I think this team has a real chance, they should go for it. None of the 4 guys splitting time in LF or CF will ever amount to anything more than a role player. No need to be married to them if there are upgrades to be had.

mth123
06-24-2012, 02:59 PM
Would the Dodgers sit Kershaw to exploit us? The Nats Gio? And so on.

Not Kershaw, but I'd sure sit Capuano and Lilly against the Reds and throw Harang and Billingsley instead. Nats would probably avoid Detwiler and probably forego Gorzelanny in the pen.

westofyou
06-24-2012, 03:22 PM
There has been 2309 "team seasons" since 1900, exactly 80 of them were 100 win seasons, roughly 3.5% of them. 44 of them have occurred since expansion, the Yankees have a total of 10 of them, the Cardinals have 4, the Braves have had 6 since 1993, the Red Sox have 3... the last one was in 1946

100 win seasons are nice, but should not be considered normal by anyone's standards

mth123
06-24-2012, 03:57 PM
There has been 2309 "team seasons" since 1900, exactly 80 of them were 100 win seasons, roughly 3.5% of them. 44 of them have occurred since expansion, the Yankees have a total of 10 of them, the Cardinals have 4, the Braves have had 6 since 1993, the Red Sox have 3... the last one was in 1946

100 win seasons are nice, but should not be considered normal by anyone's standards

Who said it was normal? I said it was my goal and that 92 Wins is well short and nothing to be satisfied with.

Are there any seasons where the full schedule was played where 92 wins was the top figure? I want the Reds to have the top figure.

westofyou
06-24-2012, 04:07 PM
Who said it was normal? I said it was my goal and that 92 Wins is well short and nothing to be satisfied with.

Are there any seasons where the full schedule was played where 92 wins was the top figure? I want the Reds to have the top figure.

58 Braves, 67 Red Sox, 89 Giants, 84 Padres, 82 Cardinals, 2001 DBacks, 2008 Phillies, 1930 Cardinals.

All those teams went to the WS with 92 wins, bolded ones were top totals in the league

HokieRed
06-24-2012, 04:35 PM
I'm resetting my 89 win prediction to 81. Simply too many flaws on this team.

cincrazy
06-24-2012, 04:39 PM
People were overreacting to the six game winning streak. And overreacting to losing 5 out of 6. Four of them were close games. Those games are toss-ups. Unfortunately, they often go against us because of poor management. This is still probably the best team in the division as it is. And they can get better at the trade deadline. The offense is clearly a problem, however. Heisey making five outs on seven pitches is simply embarrassing.

Redhook
06-24-2012, 04:45 PM
Heisey making five outs on seven pitches is simply embarrassing.

There's one thing I can't stand and that's guys that don't know how to play the game. His at-bat in the 9th was inexcusable. Does he really not know how to play the game at his age? Is he that dumb? How is he allowed to swing at the first pitch? What are his coaches teaching him? I don't know which is worse, his ignorance or the coaches not helping him. Either way, his non-professional at-bats need to disappear from the team.

Vottomatic
06-24-2012, 04:46 PM
I'm really impressed with the work Brook Jacoby has done with this team.

cincrazy
06-24-2012, 04:48 PM
I'm really impressed with the work Brook Jacoby has done with this team.

I don't know if you can blame Jacoby. Walt put this team together. Many of these guys have a history of being aggressive and having poor OBPs. Jacoby can't turn a turd into a sundae.

mth123
06-24-2012, 04:48 PM
People were overreacting to the six game winning streak. And overreacting to losing 5 out of 6. Four of them were close games. Those games are toss-ups. Unfortunately, they often go against us because of poor management. This is still probably the best team in the division as it is. And they can get better at the trade deadline. The offense is clearly a problem, however. Heisey making five outs on seven pitches is simply embarrassing.

Agreed. I hope they don't wait until the deadline though.

Vottomatic
06-24-2012, 04:52 PM
Agreed. I hope they don't wait until the deadline though.

Ken Broo stated this morning on his WLW show that the Reds will not be players at the trade deadline because they are tapped it twice - financially/payroll capped and no triple A prospects to trade.

Ken Broo knows these things, people. He is all-knowing.

mth123
06-24-2012, 04:58 PM
Ken Broo stated this morning on his WLW show that the Reds will not be players at the trade deadline because they are tapped it twice - financially/payroll capped and no triple A prospects to trade.

Ken Broo knows these things, people. He is all-knowing.

Agree that the budget seems tapped out and they absolutely lack ready now prospects, but I think there are guys they could get who wouldn't cost an arm and a leg and would still improve this roster quite a bit. I can't see Willingham or Quentin being acquired, but a David Dejesus, Will Venable or some one of that ilk should be doable. They might be able to make the finances work by finding a taker for Ludwick.

Plus Plus
06-24-2012, 05:25 PM
People were overreacting to the six game winning streak. And overreacting to losing 5 out of 6. Four of them were close games. Those games are toss-ups. Unfortunately, they often go against us because of poor management. This is still probably the best team in the division as it is. And they can get better at the trade deadline. The offense is clearly a problem, however. Heisey making five outs on seven pitches is simply embarrassing.

I was at the game today. Heisey was consistently the most offensive part of the offense. He looked like he had somewhere else to be every time he stepped in against Diamond, and definitely did against Burton, who had walked two of the three men he had faced (with the other giving up an out on a sacrifice).

VR
06-24-2012, 05:26 PM
Big gaps and cold air in SF, be in the high 50's at night, low 60's in the day.

I'll be at all 4 myself

Just realized I'll be in Berkeley Thursday with the night free. Well, it was free.

Mario-Rijo
06-25-2012, 07:30 AM
Stubbs or Heisey for Span or Revere would work for me. Minny needs more pop in that park and we need what they have. That would be a step in the right direction. Personally I'd do more but I think we could get by just fine if we had 1 more guy at the top of the lineup getting on base and working pitchers pitch counts. If Rolen remains healthy and can be anything like he has been you can move BP up to 2nd behind the LH and Rolen in the 4 hole would give you 4 straight professional AB's.