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BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2012, 12:36 PM
Brandon Phillips has answered the bell this year. After signing his big contract - probably the last big contract he’ll ever sign, he has come out on fire through 66 games and is on pace for a career season. It’s still early and Brandon will eventually cool off. And heat up again. And cool off. And heat up again. But barring any injuries, he’s on pace for another solid season, if not the best season of his career.

Coming into this season, BP has played six full seasons with the Reds (since being rescued from purgatory in Cleveland by Mr. Krivsky) and in those six seasons, he’s averaged 21 HR’s, 81 RBI’s, 30 2B, 22 SB, and 166 H, to go along with a .779 OPS and .280 BA in an average of 650 plate appearances.

In this year, his 7th with the Reds, DatDude is on pace for 22 HR’s, 103 RBI’s, 25 2B, 5 SB, and 169 H in 623 plate appearances and that’s with missing time early on with an hamstring injury. All but SB and 2B are up, as well as a .796 OPS and a .294 BA. His career OPS+ (including this season) is 97, but it is 103 through 4158 PA with the Reds - 90% of his career PA’s (he got such a bad start in Cleveland that it’s taken a while to get it up to 97). In his last 929 PA’s, his OPS+ is a very respectable 117.

Brandon Phillips has five more years on his contract after this year. If he’s not extended in that timeframe, he’ll be a free agent at the end of the 2017 season, at the age of 36. Let’s say between this year and the next five he manages to keep up his 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 160+ H, .780ish OPS pace he’s played to over the past six years with the Reds.

By the end of 2017 (age 36) that would give him:

250 HR
1000+ RBI
2000+ H
200 SB (I’m giving him 10 per year for the next 6 seasons)
100 OPS+ (103 for the next 6 years, will take his 97 up to 100)


Phillips has won 3 gold gloves with pretty much a guarantee of a 4th this year. And we know that he’ll probably win a bunch more now that he’s on the gold glove train. Heck, he’ll probably win one or two towards the end of his career when he doesn’t even deserve them (see: Ozzie Smith). Let’s be conservative and say he finishes with 8 GG’s. HOFer’s Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, and Bill Mazeroski won 10, 9, and 8 respectively. Joe Morgan won 5. The only non-Hall of Famer’s with more than Phillips right now are Frank White (8), Bobby Richardson (5), Brett Boone (4), Bobby Grich (4), Orlando Hudson (4) and Craig Biggio (4). Biggio could be removed from that list as he’ll be in the HOF soon. It’s safe to assume that as long as he stays healthy, Phillips will pass all the non-Hall of Famer’s, with the exception of possibly Frank White (8) and that's being conservative.

What’s important to note, though, is how spectacular Phillips is at 2B. He could go down as being the Ozzie Smith of his position. Sandberg won a few based on his name. In my opinion, Ron Oester deserved a GG or two, but Ryno was all the rage in the 80’s and seemed to win them simply on popularity. The same could be said for Ozzie (with 13 at SS) towards the end of his career, over one Barry Larkin, but I digress. The point is that that when a player comes around and transcends a position defensively, some warts with their offense (or lack of career counting stats) can go unnoticed when it comes to the HOF (see again: Ozzie Smith with a career OPS+ of 87).

So the question is (as long as he puts up the offensive numbers mentioned above and wins at least 8 GG's), IN YOUR OPINION, can (or will) Brandon earn his way to the HOF by the time he plays out his contract in 2017?

2000+ hits, 250+ HR, 1000+ RBI, 200+ SB, 100+ OPS…with at least 8 gold gloves. Is that enough to get him in the HOF?

I say yes.

reds1869
06-19-2012, 12:42 PM
I think the Hall of Fame is certainly a possibility for BP. The post season performance of the Reds over the next several years will have a lot to do with his election, fair or not. If he has a World Series ring or two when he retires I think he gets in.

westofyou
06-19-2012, 12:44 PM
Not a chance

Big Klu
06-19-2012, 12:47 PM
I'm surprised that Ozzie's OPS+ is that high, though he did develop into an actual major-league hitter later in his career, in his early to mid 30's.

Dan
06-19-2012, 12:47 PM
Reds Hall of Fame, definitely. Cooperstown? Most likely not.

Always Red
06-19-2012, 12:48 PM
Maybe, but he has to put together another 6 seasons or so like he has the last 6 seasons.

Then he'll certainly be in the ballpark.

Too early to say.

Sandberg won an MVP, and that counts for a ton (see Larkin, Barry)

Benihana
06-19-2012, 12:48 PM
If he can make at least 3 more AS teams (not including this year) by the end of his contract, I think the answer is yes.

His career OPS is 40 points lower than Biggio (all in OBP). Biggio played 20 years and made 7 AS teams. Phillips will have played 16 years, and if he can make three more after this year, will have made 6 AS teams. I am assuming each year he makes the AS team, he will either win a GG or OPS at least .800- bringing his average closer to Biggio's.

Therefore, 3 more AS appearances after this year, and Phillips is a HOFer.

lidspinner
06-19-2012, 12:48 PM
there is a part of me that says no way....then I read the 8 gold gloves and start thinking about how that has to put him into some consideration IF his offensive stats continue where they are at right now. I am still going to side on the "no" crowd. He very well could end up one of those players who just keep getting better with age, if that happens then he might make a strong argument but I dont see anything that screams HOF at this time looking forward. I would love nothing more than to be wrong.

lidspinner
06-19-2012, 12:53 PM
I am using the iphone to compare his stats on a app and if he keeps it up, you never know...I will leave it at that.

George Anderson
06-19-2012, 12:57 PM
Baseballreference.com compares him to the following at age 30.

1.Bobby Grich (933)
2.Gil McDougald (922)
3.Davey Johnson (921)
4.Eric McNair (911)
5.Juan Uribe (910)
6.Felipe Lopez (910)
7.Toby Harrah (910)
8.Jeff Kent (907)
9.Joe Gordon (906) *
10.Bret Boone (905)


Other than Gordon ( and he is questionable), none are in the HOF. So Phillips really needs to pick it up if he is ever to make it to Cooperstown which as of now doesn't look at all likely.

Always Red
06-19-2012, 01:36 PM
Baseballreference.com compares him to the following at age 30.

1.Bobby Grich (933)
2.Gil McDougald (922)
3.Davey Johnson (921)
4.Eric McNair (911)
5.Juan Uribe (910)
6.Felipe Lopez (910)
7.Toby Harrah (910)
8.Jeff Kent (907)
9.Joe Gordon (906) *
10.Bret Boone (905)


Other than Gordon ( and he is questionable), none are in the HOF. So Phillips really needs to pick it up if he is ever to make it to Cooperstown which as of now doesn't look at all likely.

How did Felipe Lopez get into that group of comps?? :confused:

dougdirt
06-19-2012, 01:42 PM
Not a chance

First thing that went through my head.

Phillips is a good player, but I have never once considered him the best second baseman in the game.

bellhead
06-19-2012, 01:43 PM
I think he'll need several more 30/30 seasons, if he does that over the next 5 years, GG defense then he's in.

Keys

300 HR mark...
2000 hits...
8 to 10 GG.

dougdirt
06-19-2012, 01:46 PM
I think he'll need several more 30/30 seasons, if he does that over the next 5 years, GG defense then he's in.

Keys

300 HR mark...
2000 hits...
8 to 10 GG.

so you are saying that he has no chance?

He has topped 21 home runs once in his career, 5 years ago. He has 30 steals from 2010-2011 and was caught 21 times. He needs 5-7 more gold gloves and he is already on the wrong side of his prime. He could reach 2000 hits though.

Crumbley
06-19-2012, 01:54 PM
Four or five more seasons of playing at this level would make him a borderline leaning toward "no" guy in my mind. Another couple? Have to see how he ages.

Johnny Footstool
06-19-2012, 02:34 PM
"Fame." He doesn't posses the "fame" as one of the best players in the game. He just isn't a Hall of Famer in the way Ryne Sandberg or Roberto Alomar are. He's more of a Lou Whitaker-type (although a tick better than Sweet Lou) -- a good ballplayer who flashes greatness.

Cyclone792
06-19-2012, 03:21 PM
So the question is (as long as he puts up the offensive numbers mentioned above and wins at least 8 GG's), IN YOUR OPINION, can (or will) Brandon earn his way to the HOF by the time he plays out his contract in 2017?

2000+ hits, 250+ HR, 1000+ RBI, 200+ SB, 100+ OPSÖwith at least 8 gold gloves. Is that enough to get him in the HOF?

Not a chance at all. The only reason Phillips could make the Hall is if he plays out his contract with some monster seasons. By monster, I mean significantly better than any season he's put up thus far (we're probably talking in the 130 OPS+ range).

Phillips is a good defensive second basemen, but he's not all world great like Mazeroski was at second (or Smith at SS). Those two guys are likely the best ever with the gloves up the middle, and that's why they're in. I look at a guy such as Bobby Grich, for example, and compare him to Phillips. Like Phillips, Grich was good defensively. But Grich was also a much better offensive player relative to his era.

Phillips will have a very deserving plaque in the museum on Joe Nuxhall Way, but he's a long way from Cooperstown.



"Fame." He doesn't posses the "fame" as one of the best players in the game. He just isn't a Hall of Famer in the way Ryne Sandberg or Roberto Alomar are. He's more of a Lou Whitaker-type (although a tick better than Sweet Lou) -- a good ballplayer who flashes greatness.

Whitaker was a better player than Phillips - 117 OPS+ for Lou vs. 97 OPS+ for Phillips. Whitaker's peak was also better than any of Phillips' best seasons, plus Sweet Lou was a fine defender himself.

reds1869
06-19-2012, 03:26 PM
Phillips is a good defensive second basemen, but he's not all world great like Mazeroski was at second (or Smith at SS). Those two guys are likely the best ever with the gloves up the middle, and that's why they're in.

Mazeroski was undoubtedly great with the glove (Bill James argues he might be the best defender ever). But he is only enshrined in Cooperstown because of one timely home run that made everybody remember his name.

As for BP, after looking more closely at the numbers he'd have to put up I'm going to jump into the "no way" camp.

RichRed
06-19-2012, 03:31 PM
I would love to be in Cincinnati when BP gets inducted into the Reds Hall of Fame, but I can't see him getting the call from Cooperstown.

powersackers
06-19-2012, 03:33 PM
If he doubles his career stats to this point he's still a no way. He'd have to, as others have said, put up some monster seasons from here on out. 2007 season, or even a little better.

So not likely. Bill James puts potential active players into HoF monitor at the back of his yearly stats book. I'll look tonight, but BP isn't in the 5% likely category IIRC.

RichRed
06-19-2012, 03:44 PM
So not likely. Bill James puts potential active players into HoF monitor at the back of his yearly stats book. I'll look tonight, but BP isn't in the 5% likely category IIRC.

He figures to climb this list over the next few years, but he's pretty far down there right now, as you indicate.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml

Cyclone792
06-19-2012, 04:13 PM
Mazeroski was undoubtedly great with the glove (Bill James argues he might be the best defender ever). But he is only enshrined in Cooperstown because of one timely home run that made everybody remember his name.

Mazeroski's home run certainly didn't hurt his Hall chances, but that's not the primary reason he's in. Defense got him there - if you're arguably the greatest defender ever at a prime spot like second base, then that's a pretty good case for the Hall.

Joe Carter put up a very good career himself (I didn't realize he hit almost 400 homers until just now). Nevertheless, his home run isn't going to carry him into the Hall.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 05:19 PM
Not a chance

757690
06-19-2012, 05:21 PM
Well, if Sandberg is in, there is always a chance for a guy like Phillips.

dougdirt
06-19-2012, 05:25 PM
Well, if Sandberg is in, there is always a chance for a guy like Phillips.

Sandberg was a significantly better hitter than Phillips is. He also had 9 gold gloves and 10 all star appearances.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 05:28 PM
Well, if Sandberg is in, there is always a chance for a guy like Phillips.
Sandberg was a Gold Glover after his age-23 season and went to 10 straight All-Star games starting the next year. He was also a league MVP at an age before BP even looked like a Major Leaguer. It was a different era when there was less offense, so his offensive numbers were even more impressive. Also, you never saw that kind of production from a second baseman back then. Phillips might not even go to the All-Star game this year despite putting up some of the best numbers of his life.

Sandberg deserved the call to the Hall. But unless BP is putting up similar numbers into his early-to-mid 40s, he's got no chance.

Benihana
06-19-2012, 05:34 PM
"Fame." He doesn't posses the "fame" as one of the best players in the game. He just isn't a Hall of Famer in the way Ryne Sandberg or Roberto Alomar are. He's more of a Lou Whitaker-type (although a tick better than Sweet Lou) -- a good ballplayer who flashes greatness.

I don't know- Craig Biggio was very good but didn't ooze greatness. With a few more great years, I could see BP approaching Biggio territory.

757690
06-19-2012, 05:37 PM
Sandberg was a Gold Glover after his age-23 season and went to 10 straight All-Star games starting the next year. He was also a league MVP at an age before BP even looked like a Major Leaguer. It was a different era when there was less offense, so his offensive numbers were even more impressive. Also, you never saw that kind of production from a second baseman back then. Sandberg deserved the call to the Hall. Unless BP is putting up similar numbers into his early-to-mid 40s, he's got no chance.

Sandberg played when there were no other decent 2B in the league, and he played for a WGN audience. He doesn't win a single gold glove if he played ten years earlier, or now.

If he's in, so should Lou Whitker, Jeff Kent and Bobby Grich.

One of the most over rated players in the 80's, especially defensively, imo.

RichRed
06-19-2012, 05:38 PM
I don't know- Craig Biggio was very good but didn't ooze greatness. With a few more great years, I could see BP approaching Biggio territory.

Biggio was a much better hitter than BP though, including reaching that magical 3000 hit number. Phillips won't come close to that.

RedsManRick
06-19-2012, 05:52 PM
Looking just a WAR for a rough guideline, Ryne Sandberg had 62.6. Jeff Kent had 61.1. Chase Utley is at 51.

In terms of other similar active 2Bs, Phillips is 1 behind Ian Kinsler and 2 behind Dustin Pedroia.

Basically, if Phillips put up his career-high 2011 line for every year of his Reds contact, he'd enter his late 30s still needing a few more years of good production to be hall worthy.

RedsBaron
06-19-2012, 05:55 PM
He figures to climb this list over the next few years, but he's pretty far down there right now, as you indicate.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor has a score based upon a player's statistical accomplishments, all star selections, awards, post season appearances, etc. The average Hall of Famer has a score of 100. Brandon Phiilips has a score of 24.
If Phiilips was, say, age 25, a score of 24 wouldn't be that bad. At age 31 later this month, that is a score that says it is very unlikely he will make the HOF.
George Anderson posted Phillips's comparable players at age 30, his last full season, and noted that only Joe Gordon, with a comp score of 906, made the HOF. Jeff Kent had a comp score of 907 and may make the HOF, but Kent had just started racking up big numbers at that point in his career. For Phillips to make the HOF he will probably have to indeed put together another six seasons like his last six to have any chance, and it is unlikely that he will maintain that standard as he ages.

RedsBaron
06-19-2012, 06:01 PM
Craig Biggio was probably one of the top eight or ten second basemen ever.
Here are the Hall of Fame Monitor score of five second basemen mentioned in this thread:
Roberto Alomar: 194
Craig Biggio: 169
Ryne Sandberg: 158
Lou Whitaker: 92
Brandon Phillips: 24

Hey I'm a Reds fan too but let's not get ridiculous.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 06:19 PM
Sandberg played when there were no other decent 2B in the league, and he played for a WGN audience. He doesn't win a single gold glove if he played ten years earlier, or now.

If he's in, so should Lou Whitker, Jeff Kent and Bobby Grich.

One of the most over rated players in the 80's, especially defensively, imo.
If you show me any data to say he's overrated, I bet I can come up with better data that shows you're wrong. Do Whitaker, Kent, and Grich belong in the Hall? Maybe, maybe not. But Brandon Phillips' accomplishments clearly put him a huge notch below all of them, and unless he's doing crazy things in his 40s--which he won't be--he deserves no chance for consideration.

powersackers
06-19-2012, 07:02 PM
He figures to climb this list over the next few years, but he's pretty far down there right now, as you indicate.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml

Willy Tavares is at an 8!

oneupper
06-19-2012, 07:38 PM
I always thought Grich should have gotten more consideration and that Whitaker should be in. Middle infielders didn't hit that much then (or do they now after the stetoid revolution).

Brandon will be in the Reds Hall of Fame.

What about Utley? Does he have a shot?

757690
06-19-2012, 07:50 PM
If you show me any data to say he's overrated, I bet I can come up with better data that shows you're wrong. Do Whitaker, Kent, and Grich belong in the Hall? Maybe, maybe not. But Brandon Phillips' accomplishments clearly put him a huge notch below all of them, and unless he's doing crazy things in his 40s--which he won't be--he deserves no chance for consideration.

Data shamata. Over rated is about perception.

Put Sandberg on almost any other team that wasn't broadcasting its games nationally every day, and he'd be considered a very good ball player. But there were others just as good as him that have never even been considered for the Hall.

The Hall is all about Fame, maybe it should be, but that's what it is. it's not the Hall of the Best Players, it's the Hall of the Players the media loved the most, and Sandberg is a prime example.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 08:14 PM
Data shamata. Over rated is about perception.

Put Sandberg on almost any other team that wasn't broadcasting its games nationally every day, and he'd be considered a very good ball player. But there were others just as good as him that have never even been considered for the Hall.

The Hall is all about Fame, maybe it should be, but that's what it is. it's not the Hall of the Best Players, it's the Hall of the Players the media loved the most, and Sandberg is a prime example.
Who was just as good as him and never even considered for the Hall? And I'd be willing to bet that more famous players didn't make it to the Hall while less famous players did.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2012, 08:21 PM
Who was just as good as him and never even considered for the Hall? And I'd be willing to bet that more famous players didn't make it to the Hall while less famous players did.

Lou Whitaker. If Sandberg is in then Whitaker should be in. Sandberg did not deserve to win all those gold gloves. He was an overrated defensive SS.

Whitaker with 2369 H, 244 HR, 1084 RBI, and an OPS+ of 117.
Sandberg with 2386 H 282 HR, 1061 RBI, and an OPS+ of 114.

westofyou
06-19-2012, 08:25 PM
Whittaker was a nice player, Sandberg was a stud

BuckeyeRedleg
06-19-2012, 08:31 PM
The numbers don't back that up.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 08:36 PM
Whitaker didn't get the credit he deserved, and if it were up to me, he'd be in the Hall of Fame. But I wouldn't say Ryne Sandberg didn't belong.

757690
06-19-2012, 08:45 PM
Whittaker was a nice player, Sandberg was a stud

I rest my case. Both were nice players, one had a higher "Q" factor. Neither belong in the Hall.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 08:46 PM
I rest my case. Both were nice players, one had a higher "Q" factor. Neither belong in the Hall.
I'd argue that both belong, but at least we can agree that they belong together, wherever it is.

757690
06-19-2012, 08:47 PM
Who was just as good as him and never even considered for the Hall? And I'd be willing to bet that more famous players didn't make it to the Hall while less famous players did.

I already did. Add Willie Randoph, just off the top of my head.

westofyou
06-19-2012, 09:22 PM
I rest my case. Both were nice players, one had a higher "Q" factor. Neither belong in the Hall.

One racked up TB in an era that lacked power, both played in hitters parks and took advantage of it.

Sandberg was a lot like Dale Murphy with a very high peak and a declining end

dabvu2498
06-19-2012, 09:27 PM
One racked up TB in an era that lacked power, both played in hitters parks and took advantage of it.

Sandberg was a lot like Dale Murphy with a very high peak and a declining end

The season and a half that Sandberg "retired" had a lot to do with that.

Cyclone792
06-19-2012, 09:37 PM
I always thought Grich should have gotten more consideration and that Whitaker should be in. Middle infielders didn't hit that much then (or do they now after the stetoid revolution).

Brandon will be in the Reds Hall of Fame.

What about Utley? Does he have a shot?

I would probably lean on putting Grich and Whitaker in myself. They're the true borderline cases, IMO, and they could go either way, but they should have gotten much more consideration from voters than they did.

Utley's an interesting case. He's got the solid foundation for peak years; his 2005-09 run was very nice. But he also needs to get healthy and put together another 800+ games of solid production, not necessarily as great as he was in his peak but at least another 800 games of a 115 OPS+ or thereabouts. If Utley trails off, he'll sort of remind me of Nomar Garciaparra; great peak but a quick decline far too soon that resulted in subpar career value vs. other Hall of Famers.

westofyou
06-19-2012, 09:43 PM
The season and a half that Sandberg "retired" had a lot to do with that.

So we all know why he took it off correct?

To fix his broken marriage... Now why was it broken??

Because teammate Dave Martinez broke it

Always Red
06-19-2012, 10:10 PM
So we all know why he took it off correct?

To fix his broken marriage... Now why was it broken??

Because teammate Dave Martinez broke it

Hmmm...and I thought that was Palmeiro.

camisadelgolf
06-19-2012, 10:11 PM
I already did. Add Willie Randoph, just off the top of my head.
Willie Randolph spent most of his career with the media-darling Yankees.

dabvu2498
06-19-2012, 10:19 PM
So we all know why he took it off correct?

To fix his broken marriage... Now why was it broken??


Well, sorta... He both divorced and remarried in that year and a half off.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1007823/index.htm


Four days before the divorce decree, Ryne says, he became engaged to Margaret Koehnemann, whom he describes as a neighborhood friend whose three children also knew Justin and Lindsey.

Always Red
06-19-2012, 10:23 PM
So we all know why he took it off correct?

To fix his broken marriage... Now why was it broken??

Because teammate Dave Martinez broke it

After researching this a bit, it's my opinion that the first Mrs. Sandberg broke it.

Palmeiro, Martinez, Mark Grace....:eek:

She filed 10 days after he "retired."

westofyou
06-19-2012, 10:29 PM
After researching this a bit, it's my opinion that the first Mrs. Sandberg broke it.

Palmeiro, Martinez, Mark Grace....:eek:

She filed 10 days after he "retired."

True, she was the constant in all the equations... But dang teammates !

Always Red
06-19-2012, 10:36 PM
True, she was the constant in all the equations... But dang teammates !

With "teammates" like that, who needs enemies?

No wonder the Cubs usually sucked.

Tom Servo
06-19-2012, 10:41 PM
After researching this a bit, it's my opinion that the first Mrs. Sandberg broke it.

Palmeiro, Martinez, Mark Grace....:eek:

She filed 10 days after he "retired."
I just read that she was also with Greg Maddux and Charles Barkley. :lol:

George Anderson
06-19-2012, 10:59 PM
I just read that she was also with Greg Maddux and Charles Barkley. :lol:

Wilt the Stilt was probally in the game somewhere.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-20-2012, 12:12 AM
I've seen "no way" a few times on BP.

Many I respect on this question have said this, including Cyclone, who I know is up to speed on this kind of topic.




But, just to make things clear:

Grich should be "in" with:

224 HR, 864 RBI, 104 SB .794 OPS (125 OPS+), and 4 gold gloves....over 17 seasons.

But Phillips is a "no way/no chance" with a hypothetical:

250 HR, 1000 RBI, 200 SB, .770 OPS (100 OPS+) and 8 gold gloves....over 13 seasons?

I get if if someone is more impressed with Grich because of his OPS+, but why the huge difference between the two ("should be in" and "no way")? I don't see the huge difference. I think the 8 gold gloves balances out the difference in OPS+.

kaldaniels
06-20-2012, 12:59 AM
I've seen "no way" a few times on BP.

Many I respect on this question have said this, including Cyclone, who I know is up to speed on this kind of topic.




But, just to make things clear:

Grich should be "in" with:

224 HR, 864 RBI, 104 SB .794 OPS (125 OPS+), and 4 gold gloves....over 17 seasons.

But Phillips is a "no way/no chance" with a hypothetical:

250 HR, 1000 RBI, 200 SB, .770 OPS (100 OPS+) and 8 gold gloves....over 13 seasons?

I get if if someone is more impressed with Grich because of his OPS+, but why the huge difference between the two ("should be in" and "no way")? I don't see the huge difference. I think the 8 gold gloves balances out the difference in OPS+.

Good topic for discussion, but I can't help but notice the "conservative" awarding of 8 GG to Brandon.

That said, yeah he would need 7-8 more big years to really get in the conversation. He is probably never gonna be "the best" 2B in the game, so he is gonna really need to rely on counting stats...a tough feat at this stage.

dfs
06-20-2012, 01:24 AM
Whittaker was a nice player, Sandberg was a stud

somewhere, I suspect it's in one of the historical abstracts, Bill James has an essay where he writes about the dual public perception of Allan Trammell and Lou Whittaker. It's an interesting read that might make you look at this differently.

westofyou
06-20-2012, 01:33 AM
I've seen "no way" a few times on BP.

Many I respect on this question have said this, including Cyclone, who I know is up to speed on this kind of topic.




But, just to make things clear:

Grich should be "in" with:

224 HR, 864 RBI, 104 SB .794 OPS (125 OPS+), and 4 gold gloves....over 17 seasons.

But Phillips is a "no way/no chance" with a hypothetical:

250 HR, 1000 RBI, 200 SB, .770 OPS (100 OPS+) and 8 gold gloves....over 13 seasons?

I get if if someone is more impressed with Grich because of his OPS+, but why the huge difference between the two ("should be in" and "no way")? I don't see the huge difference. I think the 8 gold gloves balances out the difference in OPS+.

Grich represents a different era too, he played when most 2nd baseman were stick figures and he was a big guy.

But let's just look at the top 20 in rate stats for 2nd baseman since 1972 (about the time Grich started) make the baseline 4000 PA's so that they are firmly entrenched.

There have been exactly 57 guys, vs only 2b in their own league



CAREER
1972-2011
2B
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OBA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA
1 Joe Morgan .070 .401 .331 7409
2 Bobby Grich .046 .373 .327 7328
3 Willie Randolph .045 .373 .328 9462
4 Chuck Knoblauch .045 .386 .341 6449
5 Chase Utley .039 .377 .338 4778
6 Roberto Alomar .034 .371 .337 10400
7 Lou Whitaker .033 .363 .330 9967
8 Craig Biggio .031 .371 .340 9216
9 Luis Castillo .026 .368 .341 7471
10 Bill Doran .026 .354 .329 5922
11 Jose Vidro .022 .365 .343 4568
12 Brian Roberts .021 .357 .335 5240
13 Tom Herr .018 .347 .329 6111
14 Eric Young .017 .359 .342 6009
15 Jeff Kent .016 .358 .342 8838
16 Ryne Sandberg .016 .347 .331 8589
17 Delino DeShields .015 .353 .337 6235
18 Robinson Cano .014 .347 .333 4413
19 Davey Lopes .013 .345 .332 6365
20 Placido Polanco .012 .352 .340 4690
21 Todd Walker .011 .352 .341 4601
22 Tony Bernazard .011 .339 .328 4243
23 Ray Durham .010 .352 .342 8175
24 Orlando Hudson .009 .345 .336 5130
25 Luis Alicea .008 .346 .338 4613
26 Jody Reed .008 .342 .334 4194
27 Joey Cora .008 .349 .341 4153
28 Steve Sax .007 .336 .329 7503
29 Dan Uggla .006 .343 .337 4044
30 Fernando Vina .005 .348 .343 4742
31 Mark McLemore .005 .346 .341 4776
32 Johnny Ray .004 .333 .329 5657
33 Jerry Remy .000 .327 .327 4963
34 Robby Thompson -.001 .329 .330 5235
35 Mickey Morandini -.001 .338 .339 5135
36 Dave Cash -.001 .331 .332 5221
37 Glenn Hubbard -.002 .328 .330 5122
38 Harold Reynolds -.003 .327 .330 5398
39 Mark Ellis -.003 .331 .334 4582
40 Damion Easley -.005 .336 .341 5307
41 Ron Belliard -.006 .335 .341 5304
42 Ron Oester -.006 .323 .329 4653
43 Julio Cruz -.007 .321 .328 4437
44 Mark Grudzielanek -.007 .334 .341 4751
45 Carlos Baerga -.007 .333 .340 4056
46 Jim Gantner -.009 .318 .327 5396
47 Adam Kennedy -.010 .328 .338 4858
48 Ted Sizemore -.012 .321 .333 4090
49 Bret Boone -.014 .325 .339 7432
50 Brandon Phillips -.015 .322 .337 4365
51 Manny Trillo -.017 .313 .331 5980
52 Juan Samuel -.018 .312 .329 5203
53 Damaso Garcia -.018 .309 .327 4086
54 Rich Dauer -.018 .310 .328 4218
55 Rennie Stennett -.028 .304 .332 4645
56 Jose Lind -.034 .295 .329 4000
57 Frank White -.034 .293 .328 8316

OPS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA
1 Joe Morgan .126 .845 .719 7409
2 Chase Utley .117 .882 .765 4778
3 Jeff Kent .091 .862 .772 8838
4 Robinson Cano .088 .843 .754 4413
5 Bobby Grich .084 .800 .716 7328
6 Ryne Sandberg .078 .805 .727 8589
7 Dan Uggla .063 .824 .761 4044
8 Roberto Alomar .061 .814 .754 10400
9 Lou Whitaker .059 .789 .730 9967
10 Craig Biggio .050 .816 .767 9216
11 Jose Vidro .049 .828 .779 4568
12 Chuck Knoblauch .039 .803 .764 6449
13 Todd Walker .019 .794 .775 4601
14 Brian Roberts .015 .777 .762 5240
15 Carlos Baerga .012 .772 .760 4056
16 Ray Durham .011 .787 .776 8175
17 Juan Samuel .010 .732 .722 5203
18 Bill Doran .009 .728 .719 5922
19 Davey Lopes .006 .728 .722 6365
20 Robby Thompson .005 .733 .728 5235
21 Johnny Ray .003 .724 .721 5657
22 Placido Polanco .002 .773 .771 4690
23 Willie Randolph .001 .724 .723 9462
24 Orlando Hudson .001 .762 .762 5130
25 Bret Boone .000 .767 .767 7432
26 Tony Bernazard -.005 .726 .730 4243
27 Brandon Phillips -.005 .755 .761 4365
28 Eric Young -.020 .750 .770 6009
29 Damion Easley -.021 .751 .773 5307
30 Delino DeShields -.022 .731 .753 6235
31 Tom Herr -.023 .696 .719 6111
32 Steve Sax -.024 .694 .718 7503
33 Ron Belliard -.028 .747 .776 5304
34 Mark Ellis -.029 .728 .756 4582
35 Dave Cash -.032 .686 .719 5221
36 Ron Oester -.038 .679 .717 4653
37 Mark Grudzielanek -.041 .732 .773 4751
38 Luis Alicea -.044 .715 .759 4613
39 Glenn Hubbard -.044 .677 .721 5122
40 Damaso Garcia -.044 .681 .725 4086
41 Joey Cora -.045 .720 .765 4153
42 Frank White -.045 .678 .723 8316
43 Fernando Vina -.049 .728 .777 4742
44 Luis Castillo -.054 .719 .773 7471
45 Adam Kennedy -.057 .712 .769 4858
46 Jody Reed -.058 .684 .741 4194
47 Jim Gantner -.058 .665 .723 5396
48 Rennie Stennett -.059 .659 .718 4645
49 Harold Reynolds -.061 .668 .729 5398
50 Jerry Remy -.062 .656 .717 4963
51 Mickey Morandini -.063 .697 .759 5135
52 Manny Trillo -.064 .654 .719 5980
53 Rich Dauer -.072 .653 .725 4218
54 Ted Sizemore -.087 .635 .722 4090
55 Mark McLemore -.096 .672 .769 4776
56 Julio Cruz -.106 .620 .725 4437
57 Jose Lind -.112 .610 .722 4000

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA
1 Joe Morgan 2.86 7.32 4.46 7409
2 Chase Utley 2.31 7.39 5.08 4778
3 Ryne Sandberg 1.24 5.82 4.57 8589
4 Chuck Knoblauch 1.24 6.31 5.07 6449
5 Roberto Alomar 1.22 6.16 4.93 10400
6 Bobby Grich 1.20 5.56 4.36 7328
7 Craig Biggio 1.16 6.27 5.11 9216
8 Jeff Kent 1.11 6.31 5.19 8838
9 Lou Whitaker 1.09 5.64 4.56 9967
10 Robinson Cano 0.95 5.85 4.90 4413
11 Dan Uggla 0.82 5.84 5.03 4044
12 Jose Vidro 0.73 6.01 5.28 4568
13 Brian Roberts 0.70 5.71 5.01 5240
14 Davey Lopes 0.50 5.01 4.51 6365
15 Willie Randolph 0.40 4.86 4.46 9462
16 Bill Doran 0.40 4.87 4.47 5922
17 Todd Walker 0.31 5.52 5.21 4601
18 Ray Durham 0.26 5.49 5.24 8175
19 Placido Polanco 0.14 5.29 5.15 4690
20 Carlos Baerga 0.06 5.07 5.01 4056
21 Tony Bernazard 0.06 4.60 4.54 4243
22 Juan Samuel 0.03 4.54 4.52 5203
23 Delino DeShields 0.02 4.96 4.94 6235
24 Johnny Ray 0.01 4.49 4.47 5657
25 Tom Herr -.01 4.47 4.47 6111
26 Eric Young -.01 5.16 5.17 6009
27 Robby Thompson -.04 4.56 4.60 5235
28 Orlando Hudson -.05 4.97 5.02 5130
29 Steve Sax -.18 4.26 4.44 7503
30 Bret Boone -.26 4.85 5.11 7432
31 Mark Ellis -.32 4.61 4.93 4582
32 Luis Castillo -.34 4.85 5.19 7471
33 Dave Cash -.36 4.12 4.48 5221
34 Damion Easley -.37 4.81 5.18 5307
35 Joey Cora -.41 4.67 5.08 4153
36 Brandon Phillips -.42 4.60 5.01 4365
37 Luis Alicea -.45 4.57 5.01 4613
38 Fernando Vina -.46 4.79 5.25 4742
39 Ron Belliard -.51 4.72 5.23 5304
40 Glenn Hubbard -.56 3.93 4.49 5122
41 Damaso Garcia -.58 3.90 4.48 4086
42 Mark Grudzielanek -.58 4.60 5.18 4751
43 Jerry Remy -.64 3.74 4.38 4963
44 Ron Oester -.65 3.79 4.44 4653
45 Harold Reynolds -.68 3.87 4.55 5398
46 Jim Gantner -.70 3.76 4.46 5396
47 Frank White -.71 3.74 4.46 8316
48 Adam Kennedy -.72 4.40 5.11 4858
49 Mickey Morandini -.72 4.31 5.03 5135
50 Jody Reed -.76 3.98 4.74 4194
51 Julio Cruz -.79 3.69 4.48 4437
52 Rennie Stennett -.93 3.54 4.47 4645
53 Manny Trillo -.94 3.53 4.47 5980
54 Rich Dauer -1.03 3.45 4.47 4218
55 Mark McLemore -1.08 4.06 5.14 4776
56 Ted Sizemore -1.17 3.33 4.51 4090
57 Jose Lind -1.49 3.03 4.52 4000

SLG DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA
1 Chase Utley .078 .505 .427 4778
2 Robinson Cano .075 .496 .421 4413
3 Jeff Kent .074 .505 .430 8838
4 Ryne Sandberg .062 .458 .396 8589
5 Dan Uggla .058 .482 .424 4044
6 Joe Morgan .056 .444 .388 7409
7 Bobby Grich .038 .427 .389 7328
8 Juan Samuel .028 .420 .393 5203
9 Jose Vidro .027 .463 .436 4568
10 Roberto Alomar .026 .443 .417 10400
11 Lou Whitaker .026 .426 .400 9967
12 Carlos Baerga .020 .439 .420 4056
13 Craig Biggio .019 .445 .426 9216
14 Bret Boone .014 .442 .428 7432
15 Brandon Phillips .010 .434 .424 4365
16 Todd Walker .008 .442 .434 4601
17 Robby Thompson .006 .403 .397 5235
18 Ray Durham .001 .435 .434 8175
19 Johnny Ray -.001 .391 .391 5657
20 Brian Roberts -.006 .421 .427 5240
21 Chuck Knoblauch -.006 .417 .423 6449
22 Davey Lopes -.007 .383 .390 6365
23 Orlando Hudson -.008 .417 .426 5130
24 Placido Polanco -.010 .421 .431 4690
25 Frank White -.011 .385 .396 8316
26 Tony Bernazard -.015 .387 .402 4243
27 Damion Easley -.016 .416 .431 5307
28 Bill Doran -.017 .373 .390 5922
29 Ron Belliard -.023 .412 .434 5304
30 Mark Ellis -.026 .397 .423 4582
31 Damaso Garcia -.026 .372 .398 4086
32 Dave Cash -.031 .356 .387 5221
33 Steve Sax -.031 .359 .390 7503
34 Rennie Stennett -.031 .355 .386 4645
35 Ron Oester -.032 .356 .388 4653
36 Mark Grudzielanek -.034 .398 .432 4751
37 Delino DeShields -.037 .379 .415 6235
38 Eric Young -.037 .391 .428 6009
39 Tom Herr -.040 .350 .390 6111
40 Glenn Hubbard -.041 .349 .391 5122
41 Willie Randolph -.044 .351 .395 9462
42 Manny Trillo -.047 .341 .388 5980
43 Adam Kennedy -.047 .384 .431 4858
44 Jim Gantner -.049 .348 .397 5396
45 Luis Alicea -.052 .369 .421 4613
46 Joey Cora -.053 .371 .424 4153
47 Fernando Vina -.054 .379 .434 4742
48 Rich Dauer -.054 .343 .397 4218
49 Harold Reynolds -.058 .341 .399 5398
50 Mickey Morandini -.061 .359 .420 5135
51 Jerry Remy -.062 .328 .390 4963
52 Jody Reed -.066 .341 .407 4194
53 Ted Sizemore -.075 .314 .389 4090
54 Jose Lind -.078 .316 .393 4000
55 Luis Castillo -.081 .351 .432 7471
56 Julio Cruz -.099 .299 .397 4437
57 Mark McLemore -.101 .326 .428 4776

westofyou
06-20-2012, 01:34 AM
somewhere, I suspect it's in one of the historical abstracts, Bill James has an essay where he writes about the dual public perception of Allan Trammell and Lou Whittaker. It's an interesting read that might make you look at this differently.

I've read it, and I think Lou was a great player, just a notch below HOF.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2012, 10:24 AM
I've read it, and I think Lou was a great player, just a notch below HOF.

Lou Whitaker was one of my absolute favorite players growing up. I was ecstatic when he hit that homer against Dwight Gooden in the 1986 All-Star Game. At one point, I had every Lou Whitaker baseball card from Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and Sportflics.

I still don't see him as a Hall of Famer.

RichRed
06-20-2012, 10:46 AM
Lou Whitaker was one of my absolute favorite players growing up. I was ecstatic when he hit that homer against Dwight Gooden in the 1986 All-Star Game. At one point, I had every Lou Whitaker baseball card from Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and Sportflics.

I still don't see him as a Hall of Famer.

I acquired Lou's rookie card in the same transaction that got me George Foster's rookie card (can't recall what I traded away) on one of the happiest days of my baseball card geekhood, but I don't quite see the HOF for Whitaker either.

bellhead
06-20-2012, 10:54 AM
so you are saying that he has no chance?

He has topped 21 home runs once in his career, 5 years ago. He has 30 steals from 2010-2011 and was caught 21 times. He needs 5-7 more gold gloves and he is already on the wrong side of his prime. He could reach 2000 hits though.

Doug meant 20/20 seasons... He could reach 300 homeruns if his body doesn't go before 40...

GG will come and he may reach double digits.

To me he is right below borderline right now.

Cedric
06-20-2012, 02:03 PM
I always wonder what Jeff Stevens thinks about Brandon Phillips. His name is brought up all the time and I wonder how it feels being the stinker in such an enormously lopsided trade.

MikeThierry
06-20-2012, 02:09 PM
Getting back to the original discussion, I just don't see him making the HOF. He belongs in the Hall of Very Very Good. The only current Reds player that has a legit case when his career is over is Votto. If Votto keeps producing at the level he's produced the past couple of years, he's a lock in my opinion.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-20-2012, 02:31 PM
From The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001):

Top Second Basemen (bold in HOF)

1. Joe Morgan
2. Eddie Collins
3. Rogers Hornsby
4. Jackie Robinson
5. Craig Biggio
6. Nap Lajoie
7. Ryne Sandberg
8. Charlie Gehringer
9. Rod Carew
10. Roberto Alomar
11. Frankie Frisch
12. Bobby Grich
13. Lou Whitaker
14. Billy Herman
15. Nellie Fox
16. Joe Gordon
17. Willie Randolph
18. Bobby Doerr
19. Tony Lazzeri
20. Larry Doyle
21. Chuck Knoblauch
22. Dick McAuliffe
23. Davey Lopes
24. Buddy Myer
25. Johnny Evers
26. Cupid Childs
27. Jim Gilliam
28. Red Schoendienst
29. Bill Mazerowski
30. Bid McPhee
31. Frank White

I don't have a recent version of this, but in 2001 James had Kent at #48 (half-way through his career), so I'm assuming he would be pretty high up on this list if it were done today.

Chase Utley and Phillips might have also cracked the top 30 by now.

westofyou
06-20-2012, 02:36 PM
I don't think he's updated that list, I belong to his site I'll look this evening

BuckeyeRedleg
06-20-2012, 02:48 PM
Comparing recent inductees or soon-to-be (Sandberg, Alomar, and Biggio) to Whitaker, Grich and Randolph. I have included career OPS+, WAR, and dWAR, along with popularity (FAME) accomplishments (MVP, All-Star games, Gold Gloves) as well as counting stats (HR, RBI, H, SB, to go along with BA) in games played at Second Base.


-Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = 114 OPS+, WAR 64.9, MVP x 1, Top 5 MVP x 3, AS x 10, GG x 9, dWAR 12.8, 1982 G @ 2B (92% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 277 HR, 1007 RBI, 2225 H, 310 SB, .285 BA).

-Roberto Alomar (1988-2004) = 116 OPS+, WAR 62.9, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 12, GG x 10, dWAR 2.4, 2304 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 207 HR, 1107 RBI, 2687 H, 470 SB, .301 BA).

-Craig Biggio (1988-2007) = 112 OPS+, WAR 62.1, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 7, GG x 4, dWAR -3.8, 1978 G @ 2B (69% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 226 HR, 883 RBI, 2230 H, 321 SB, .285 BA).

-Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = 117 OPS+, WAR 71.4, AS x 5, GG x 3, dWAR 15.4, 2228 G @ 2B (93% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 239 HR, 1041 RBI, 2312 H, 140 SB, .277 BA).

-Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = 125 OPS+, WAR 67.3, AS x 6, GG x 4, dWAR 16.2, 1740 G @ 2B (87% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 197 HR, 753 RBI, 1609 H, 85 SB, .267 BA).

-Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = 104 OPS+, WAR 63, AS x 6, GG x 0, dWAR 19.4, 2132 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 54 HR, 679 RBI, 2190 H, 269 SB, .276 BA).

-Grich and Whitaker lead everyone in OPS+ and WAR.

-Randolph (19.4), Grich (16.2), and Whitaker (15.4) lead all in dWAR (Defensive WAR).

-Sandberg and Alomar dominate the popularity contest of All Star games and Gold Gloves.

-Shocking that Randolph never won a GG, but he lost out to Grich ('75, '76), White ('77-'82, '86, '87), and Whitaker ('83-'85). Towards the end of his career Harold Reynolds ('88-'90) won a few and then Alomar took over ('91-'96, '98-'01).


Top Second Basemen by dWAR (Career Defensive WAR/HOF in bold):

Bill Mazerowski (1956-1972) = dWAR 23.8 (GG x 8)
Joe Gordon (1938-1950) = dWAR 22.4
Frankie Frisch (1919-1937) = dWAR 21.6
Frank White (1973-1990) = dWAR 21.4 (GG x 8)
Nellie Fox (1947-1965) = dWAR 20.9
Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = dWAR 19.4 (GG x 0)
Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = dWAR 16.2 (GG x 4)
Bid McPhee (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
Chase Utley (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
Johnny Evers (1902-1929) = dWAR 15.4
Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = dWAR 15.4 (GG x 3)
Red Schoendienst (1945-1963) = dWAR 15.2
Mark Ellis (2002-) = dWAR 14.3 (GG x 0)
Gil McDougald (1951-1960, 1336 G) = dWAR 14.0
Rogers Hornsby (1915-1937) dWAR 13.9
Bobby Doerr (1937-1951) = dWAR 13.4
Lonny Frey (1933-1948, 1535 G) = dWAR 13.3
Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = dWAR 12.8
Charlie Gehringer (1924-1942) = dWAR 10.7
Nap Lajoie (1896-1916) = dWAR 10.1
Jackie Robinson (1947-1956) = dWAR 10.0

Brandon Phillips is at 7.0 currently, which would put him at 13 to 14 if he keeps up his current pace by 2017. Surprising to see Utley that high already. He should probably have a gold glove by now. Now that Phillips is on the gold glove train (and Utley has had knee issues) it's unlikey he ever wins one.

jojo
06-20-2012, 07:16 PM
No, Phillips is not a future Hall of Famer.

camisadelgolf
06-20-2012, 07:23 PM
No, Phillips is not a future Hall of Famer.
I don't think there's much question about that. The bigger question is whether it's even possible.

jojo
06-20-2012, 07:32 PM
I don't think there's much question about that. The bigger question is whether it's even possible.

I think he's on the wrong side of 30 to become what Utley did consistently before his injury.

He's not much different than Pedroia, Cano, Kinsler, Zobrist, Uggla etc. It's hard to imagine that Phillips' defense wont decline over the next 5 years while his bat would suddenly become consistently better than the league average bat that has defined his career to this point.

Phillips is a nice player. He's been an above average starting position player who has largely been a second tier middle infielder. That's a great career but not a HOF one. As he turns 31, its just tough seeing him as a player that not only doesn't decline but has significantly greater value than he has to this point.

Brutus
06-20-2012, 08:00 PM
I don't think he is a Hall-of-Famer by any means based on what he's already done, but it depends on how much longer he can sustain being a productive player.

In the past 20 years, he's, I believe, No. 18 in total WAR accumulated for his position. That's not H.O.F. material. That said, he's got a chance to get into the top-10 at his position by the time he's finished. If he does that, he'll be joining guys that are mostly Hall of Famers.

For what it's worth, if Phillips adds 12 more WAR to his career total, he'll be in the top-15 among 2B dating back to 1970. That begins a little more of a compelling argument.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-22-2013, 10:54 PM
Brandon Phillips has answered the bell this year. After signing his big contract - probably the last big contract heíll ever sign, he has come out on fire through 66 games and is on pace for a career season. Itís still early and Brandon will eventually cool off. And heat up again. And cool off. And heat up again. But barring any injuries, heís on pace for another solid season, if not the best season of his career.

Coming into this season, BP has played six full seasons with the Reds (since being rescued from purgatory in Cleveland by Mr. Krivsky) and in those six seasons, heís averaged 21 HRís, 81 RBIís, 30 2B, 22 SB, and 166 H, to go along with a .779 OPS and .280 BA in an average of 650 plate appearances.

In this year, his 7th with the Reds, DatDude is on pace for 22 HRís, 103 RBIís, 25 2B, 5 SB, and 169 H in 623 plate appearances and thatís with missing time early on with an hamstring injury. All but SB and 2B are up, as well as a .796 OPS and a .294 BA. His career OPS+ (including this season) is 97, but it is 103 through 4158 PA with the Reds - 90% of his career PAís (he got such a bad start in Cleveland that itís taken a while to get it up to 97). In his last 929 PAís, his OPS+ is a very respectable 117.

Brandon Phillips has five more years on his contract after this year. If heís not extended in that timeframe, heíll be a free agent at the end of the 2017 season, at the age of 36. Letís say between this year and the next five he manages to keep up his 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 160+ H, .780ish OPS pace heís played to over the past six years with the Reds.

By the end of 2017 (age 36) that would give him:

250 HR
1000+ RBI
2000+ H
200 SB (Iím giving him 10 per year for the next 6 seasons)
100 OPS+ (103 for the next 6 years, will take his 97 up to 100)


Phillips has won 3 gold gloves with pretty much a guarantee of a 4th this year. And we know that heíll probably win a bunch more now that heís on the gold glove train. Heck, heíll probably win one or two towards the end of his career when he doesnít even deserve them (see: Ozzie Smith). Letís be conservative and say he finishes with 8 GGís. HOFerís Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, and Bill Mazeroski won 10, 9, and 8 respectively. Joe Morgan won 5. The only non-Hall of Famerís with more than Phillips right now are Frank White (8), Bobby Richardson (5), Brett Boone (4), Bobby Grich (4), Orlando Hudson (4) and Craig Biggio (4). Biggio could be removed from that list as heíll be in the HOF soon. Itís safe to assume that as long as he stays healthy, Phillips will pass all the non-Hall of Famerís, with the exception of possibly Frank White (8) and that's being conservative.

Whatís important to note, though, is how spectacular Phillips is at 2B. He could go down as being the Ozzie Smith of his position. Sandberg won a few based on his name. In my opinion, Ron Oester deserved a GG or two, but Ryno was all the rage in the 80ís and seemed to win them simply on popularity. The same could be said for Ozzie (with 13 at SS) towards the end of his career, over one Barry Larkin, but I digress. The point is that that when a player comes around and transcends a position defensively, some warts with their offense (or lack of career counting stats) can go unnoticed when it comes to the HOF (see again: Ozzie Smith with a career OPS+ of 87).

So the question is (as long as he puts up the offensive numbers mentioned above and wins at least 8 GG's), IN YOUR OPINION, can (or will) Brandon earn his way to the HOF by the time he plays out his contract in 2017?

2000+ hits, 250+ HR, 1000+ RBI, 200+ SB, 100+ OPSÖwith at least 8 gold gloves. Is that enough to get him in the HOF?

I say yes.


Bump.

A little less than a year later, I still say "yes".

Of course, I was wrong on one thing. He didn't win the GG last year, but we can all agree that was bogus.

Vottomatic
05-22-2013, 11:16 PM
Brandon seems to be getting better with age. If he continues to play the next 3 or 4 years like this season, I could see him having a chance at the HOF.

Benihana
05-22-2013, 11:20 PM
If BP can maintain his current level of production through the end of his current contract, he'll join the list of always very good but never truly elite players. He'd get a yes vote from me, but I think it would be 50/50 whether or not the people that matter would elect him. Even Barry Larkin (who might be a comp) won an MVP. I don't believe Phillips, good as he is, has ever finished in the Top 5. Voting members care about that kind of stuff.

SpiritofStLouis
05-22-2013, 11:51 PM
4 or 5 more years like he's capable, and it's a no brainer. Best glove at the position, above average bat (even though he's hitting out of position), great attitude.

reds44
05-22-2013, 11:56 PM
Hall of Very Good.

dougdirt
05-22-2013, 11:57 PM
Not even close. Brandon Phillips is quite good. But has he ever been the best second baseman in a given season in his career, much less over a few years?

Benihana
05-23-2013, 12:07 AM
Assuming BP keeps it up for 3 more years, does anyone else agree/disagree with the Barry Larkin comp, sans Larkin's MVP?

dougdirt
05-23-2013, 12:19 AM
Assuming BP keeps it up for 3 more years, does anyone else agree/disagree with the Barry Larkin comp, sans Larkin's MVP?

Barry Larkin had a career OPS+ of 116. Brandon Phillips has topped 110 in one season with a 118 in 2011.

Larkin was on a different level as a hitter. He had 9 seasons of at least 118 OPS+ with at least 350 PA.

BCubb2003
05-23-2013, 12:21 AM
Hall of Very Good.

It's the Hall of Fame, and he'll be famous -- Ozzie Smith-like famous.

But he may have to go in the year after Darwin Barney.

CrackerJack
05-23-2013, 12:34 AM
Assuming BP keeps it up for 3 more years, does anyone else agree/disagree with the Barry Larkin comp, sans Larkin's MVP?

Similar in terms of entertainment, style and over-all production, yeah, definitely. Comparable, but I think both Larkin and Morgan are a notch above him, not a big notch, but the #'s sort of tell that story, as do the WS rings etc..,

Brandon is definitely one of my top 5 favorite Reds to ever play here.

PuffyPig
05-23-2013, 12:34 AM
We all love Brandon Phillips, but unless he has every future at bat with a runner on third with less than two outs, he has little to no chance to ever come close to the HOF.

Bob Sheed
05-23-2013, 10:36 AM
I agree it's a long-shot. But he doesn't seem to get hurt, even though he plays pretty hard. Depends on how long he can keep it up.

If he could keep this level of production up for 4 or 5 more years, which is extremely doubtful, then I think he would be a lock. His career would be in Larkin territory at that point. (who also got outshined for Gold Gloves a number of years)

As he is rounding the corner of his baseball career, he is surrounded by a lot of talent. If the Reds win 2 WS titles while Brandon is still with the team... who knows?

mdccclxix
05-23-2013, 10:48 AM
I think Phillips will be an outstanding ballplayer until he's at least 37. He's got the talent and dedication to continue to adjust to the game. For example, I could see him hitting 30 home runs again in a season. That is the best thing he's got going for him. Secondly, as mentioned, he's got a great team around him now that can help his career path. Third, he's got a top gear that only the greatest players have during the big moments. I don't think he's done enough yet, and he needs to go against the odds and produce a lot during his 30's, but I think it can be done.

RedsBaron
05-23-2013, 10:54 AM
The average member of the Hall of Fame has a Hall of Fame Monitor Score (a system designed by Bill James) of 100; Brandon's HOF Monitor Score is 30.
The average HOF member has a Black Ink Score of 27; Brandon's is 4.
The average member of the HOF has a Gray Ink Score of 144; Brandon's is 27.
The average HOF member has a HOF Standards Score of 50; Brandon's is 21.
The most similar batter to Brandon Phillips through his age 31 season is former second baseman Bobby Grich, an excellent player. He became eligible for the HOF in 1992. He received 2.6% of the vote and dropped off the ballot.
Of the ten most similar batters to Phillips in MLB history, only one, Joe Gordon, is in the HOF. Gordon played his last game in 1950, died in 1978 and was voted into the HOF by the Veterans Committee in 2009.
Brandon Phillips has been an excellent player and he will easily make the Hall of Fame...The Reds Hall of Fame. His chances of making the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown are almost nil.

klw
05-23-2013, 11:04 AM
I think for Phillips to have a shot he would need a couple of years with great performances on the national stage- He needs to have a couple of great World Series performances to get from very good to FAME. He also has only made 2 All-Star games. That does not get you elected.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillbr01.shtml

George Anderson
05-23-2013, 11:06 AM
Phillips is still very much a long shot.

I think fans generally overestimate the worth of their hometown favorites regardless of the sport. I am quite sure if you ran a poll amongst Reds fans you would find several who probally think Joe Nuxhall and probally even Sean Casey belong in Cooperstown. I'm sure if you polled Dodger fans a majority would probally think the whole infield of Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell and Ron Cey belong. Both of these ideas are just pretty much insane. My whole point is to often fans only look at their teams players and often with just feeling and emotion and not fact when deciding if a player is worthy of Cooperstown.

PuffyPig
05-23-2013, 11:25 AM
Phiilips has been a very good player but he's not HOF worthy.

If he had remained a SS and had the same GG rep and maintained his hitting for another 5 years, he might have had a shot.

westofyou
05-23-2013, 11:33 AM
If he wasn't a HOF player last June and only OPSd. 750 last year and didn't win the GG and is OPSing. 794 this year what criteria is being used to vote him in in May a year later?

oneupper
05-23-2013, 11:41 AM
Bobby Grich should have made it. Lou Whitaker also.
Brandon will have to one of those fine wine guys (better with age) to have a shot.
At least he'll get "leadership brownie points" when his name comes up, due to his demeanor.
It seems like it's been tough for second basemen to get in.
Cano looks like a lock, though, if he can keep going 4-5 more years.

RedsBaron
05-23-2013, 12:26 PM
If he wasn't a HOF player last June and only OPSd. 750 last year and didn't win the GG and is OPSing. 794 this year what criteria is being used to vote him in in May a year later?

Brandon is currently leading the NL in RBI with 40. Don't you know that RBI is the most important stat? ;)

bucksfan2
05-23-2013, 01:13 PM
Brandon is currently leading the NL in RBI with 40. Don't you know that RBI is the most important stat? ;)

Sure its important!!! The reality is counting stats do matter when a player is done and you are comparing his career. Lets say Brandon Phillips drives in an average of 120 runs over the next 4 years, that would be pretty impressive wouldn't it?

I don't think Brandon is a HOF nor do I think he will achieve that status. I think he has solidified himself as the best defensive 2b in the game right now. I also think with him in the middle of the order, especially this season, he has the potential to be in the MVP conversation. If he has a run of 4 big years with a MVP what would that do to his HOF status?

westofyou
05-23-2013, 01:35 PM
Sure its important!!! The reality is counting stats do matter when a player is done and you are comparing his career. Lets say Brandon Phillips drives in an average of 120 runs over the next 4 years, that would be pretty impressive wouldn't it?

I don't think Brandon is a HOF nor do I think he will achieve that status. I think he has solidified himself as the best defensive 2b in the game right now. I also think with him in the middle of the order, especially this season, he has the potential to be in the MVP conversation. If he has a run of 4 big years with a MVP what would that do to his HOF status?

Career RBI is determined by three things

1. Great players
2. Longevity
3. High scoring environments

Of the top ten guys all but Eddie Murray played a portion (if not all) in a high scoring environment and 1/2 of them have over 10000 ab's.



CAREER
AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RBI RBI AB
1 Hank Aaron 2297 12364
2 Babe Ruth 2210 8399
3 Barry Bonds 1996 9847
4 Lou Gehrig 1995 8001
5 Stan Musial 1951 10972
6 Alex Rodriguez 1950 9662
7 Ty Cobb 1933 11434
8 Jimmie Foxx 1921 8134
9 Eddie Murray 1917 11336
10 Willie Mays 1903 10881



So let's look at Brandon's compared to active players at the end of last year.

Tied with Jeff Francoeur



RBI RBI AB
1 Alex Rodriguez 1950 9662
2 Jim Thome 1699 8422
3 Chipper Jones 1623 8984
4 Albert Pujols 1434 6919
5 Jason Giambi 1405 7021
6 Carlos Lee 1363 7983
7 Bobby Abreu 1349 8347
8 Todd Helton 1346 7565
9 Paul Konerko 1336 7718
10 David Ortiz 1326 6539
11 Andruw Jones 1289 7599
12 Scott Rolen 1287 7398
13 Derek Jeter 1254 10551
14 Carlos Beltran 1243 7314
15 Aramis Ramirez 1227 6863
16 Adrian Beltre 1215 7965
17 Lance Berkman 1200 6235
18 Torii Hunter 1143 7181
19 Johnny Damon 1139 9736
20 Miguel Cabrera 1123 5663
21 Raul Ibanez 1116 6771
22 Mark Teixeira 1101 5664
23 Alfonso Soriano 1035 6943
24 Adam Dunn 1018 5929
25 Michael Young 984 7399
26 Omar Vizquel 951 10586
27 Ryan Howard 920 4054
28 Vernon Wells 908 6218
29 Aubrey Huff 904 6104
30 Matt Holliday 872 4878
31 Eric Chavez 850 5221
32 David Wright 818 4742
33 Jimmy Rollins 793 7490
34 Carlos Pena 791 4610
35 Justin Morneau 786 4254
36 Prince Fielder 764 4108
37 Hideki Matsui 760 4442
38 Ramon Hernandez 751 5057
39 Adrian Gonzalez 750 4426
40 Chase Utley 739 4434
41 Jason Bay 734 4299
42 A.J. Pierzynski 730 5795
43 Robinson Cano 715 4731
44 Mark Kotsay 708 6309
45 Placido Polanco 700 6837
46 Travis Hafner 694 3796
47 Adam LaRoche 684 4159
48 Alex Gonzalez 680 5633
49 Nick Swisher 673 4241
50 Carl Crawford 667 5615
51 Ichiro Suzuki 660 8085
52 Juan Uribe 644 4789
T53 Jhonny Peralta 643 4708
T53 Ryan Braun 643 3477
55 Brandon Inge 641 4909
56 Michael Cuddyer 639 4430
57 Alex Rios 627 4926
58 Dan Uggla 625 4050
59 Kevin Youkilis 610 3644
60 Brian McCann 604 3507
T61 Brandon Phillips 601 4577
T61 Jeff Francoeur 601 4358
63 Ryan Zimmerman 593 3861
T64 Curtis Granderson 591 4224
T64 Ty Wigginton 591 4422
66 Joe Mauer 587 3933
67 Rafael Furcal 585 6441
68 Lyle Overbay 581 4399
69 Adam Kennedy 571 5473
70 Josh Hamilton 553 2825
71 Nick Markakis 549 4055
72 Josh Willingham 544 3226
73 Orlando Hudson 542 4825
74 Juan Rivera 539 3471
75 Andre Ethier 535 3524
76 Ryan Ludwick 530 3063
T77 Hanley Ramirez 526 3924
T77 Matt Kemp 526 3265
79 Jason Kubel 519 3065
T80 Eric Hinske 516 3745
T80 Hunter Pence 516 3473
82 Aaron Hill 510 4059
83 Juan Pierre 509 7217
84 Corey Hart 508 3443
85 Jose Bautista 503 3168
86 Edwin Encarnacion 502 3273
87 Mark Reynolds 501 2973
88 Jayson Werth 495 3380
89 Austin Kearns 494 3579
90 Mark Ellis 490 4506
91 David DeJesus 486 4303
T92 Brian Roberts 482 4949
T92 Delmon Young 482 3358
T94 Jose Lopez 480 3841
T94 Rod Barajas 480 3460
T94 Billy Butler 480 3186
T94 Geoff Blum 480 3966
T94 Jose Reyes 480 5095
99 Miguel Olivo 479 3668
100 Marco Scutaro 478 4388

oneupper
05-23-2013, 01:37 PM
If you want to see how things could go wrong, check Orlando Hudson's numbers through age 31. Pretty much like Brandon's (or better).
Three years later, he's out of baseball.

Tom Servo
05-23-2013, 01:56 PM
If you want to see how things could go wrong, check Orlando Hudson's numbers through age 31. Pretty much like Brandon's (or better).
Three years later, he's out of baseball.
The O-Dog came to mind for me too.

westofyou
05-23-2013, 02:03 PM
CAREER
1993-2012
2B
AGE <= 32
OBA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SLG displayed only--not a sorting criteria
AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS OPS OBA SLG AB
1 Chase Utley .882 .377 .505 4133
2 Craig Biggio .875 .399 .476 3470
3 Roberto Alomar .869 .388 .482 4259
4 Jeff Kent .859 .353 .506 3587
5 Robinson Cano .854 .351 .503 4731
6 Dustin Pedroia .830 .369 .461 3388
7 Jose Vidro .828 .365 .463 4088
8 Alfonso Soriano .825 .322 .503 3197
9 Chuck Knoblauch .824 .391 .433 4380
10 Dan Uggla .813 .343 .469 4050
11 Ian Kinsler .811 .350 .460 3656
12 Todd Walker .798 .352 .447 3826
13 Ray Durham .788 .354 .434 5360
14 Brian Roberts .784 .360 .424 4447
15 Marcus Giles .782 .353 .429 2934
16 Placido Polanco .781 .356 .425 3667
17 Rickie Weeks .779 .350 .429 3454
18 Jose Offerman .776 .373 .404 2592
19 Kelly Johnson .771 .339 .432 3008
20 Orlando Hudson .770 .346 .424 4167
21 Eric Young .769 .372 .397 2954
22 Carlos Baerga .764 .328 .436 3105
23 Bret Boone .762 .323 .439 4405
24 Aaron Hill .762 .325 .437 3698
25 Howie Kendrick .758 .330 .429 2755
26 Brandon Phillips .755 .322 .433 4577
27 Damion Easley .752 .338 .414 3677
28 Ron Belliard .750 .338 .412 4323
29 Fernando Vina .747 .356 .391 3244
30 Joey Cora .743 .352 .391 2422
31 Mark Ellis .740 .333 .407 3175
32 Delino DeShields .736 .352 .384 3690
33 Quilvio Veras .734 .372 .362 2780
34 Mike Lansing .730 .323 .408 3307
35 Mickey Morandini .730 .352 .378 2867

jojo
05-23-2013, 02:56 PM
I'm kinda surprised that Phillips would be seriously considered a HOFer by some.

George Anderson
05-23-2013, 03:03 PM
I'm kinda surprised that Phillips would be seriously considered a HOFer by some.

It's almost as bad as those thinking Rolen would be an improvement over Frazier.

Salukifan2
05-23-2013, 03:16 PM
With a career OPS+ of only 97, the better question may be whether or not Brandon is actually a little overrated. Even without the Cleveland years his OPS+ is 102, just slightly above average.

I still think he is an excellent player, but not HOF

Bumstead
05-23-2013, 03:20 PM
HOF'er? No. Really good player for the Reds and a fan favorite? Yes.

Pony Boy
05-23-2013, 03:34 PM
In order for Brandon Phillips to make the HOF he would have to improve so dramatically as a hitter over the next 5 seasons that everyone would assume that he was on PEDs and wouldn't vote for him on that basis.

Always Red
05-23-2013, 03:39 PM
HOF'er? No. Really good player for the Reds and a fan favorite? Yes.

Reds Hall of Fame, yes. :beerme:

BuckeyeRedleg
05-23-2013, 07:12 PM
It's almost as bad as those thinking Rolen would be an improvement over Frazier.

Wow. You feel better now?

You know, Iím not someone that just started posting on the Redzone in last month, George.

You want to disagree and think there is no way BP has a chance? Fine, tell me why or just say that you donít think itís possible. Take a step back. There really is no place for the insulting jab.

It seems to me that thereís been a bit much of this kind of thing lately. Ridiculing posts. Ridiculing posters. Sure, there have been some questionable posts and even more questionable threads started on some questionable topics. I would think those would fade away from the front page if they were simply ignored. Of course, itís not possible to fade away when everyone jumps in to tell the poster how stupid they are and then others jump in to pat those jumpers on the back for putting that ďstupidĒ poster in his/her place. Honestly, what if the poster was a kid? What if it the poster was a casual fan that was just starting to get into the Reds? Does it feel good to chase those away? Does that make you feel superior? As an ump, I would think youíd be the opposite of that pack of wolves (mob) mentality. Not you necessarily, but some on here probably spend half of their posts ridiculing posts in one way or another.

You know, I found this board to pretty damn boring the past few years with the split. Itís been entertaining to see new ďbloodĒ on there and to interact with a larger group of people that were ďcalled upĒ from the Sundeck. Letís be honest, we all love the Reds and this is a fun thing, but If this is what this place has become, maybe Iíll find another place to discuss the Reds. Too bad itís when our boys are playing the best baseball theyíve played in a very long time.

Go back and read my original post one more time. Did that really warrant the dismissive post? And Sean Casey? Yeah okay.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-23-2013, 07:17 PM
If he wasn't a HOF player last June and only OPSd. 750 last year and didn't win the GG and is OPSing. 794 this year what criteria is being used to vote him in in May a year later?

I know you disagree, but I feel BP has had a very solid last 11+ months and even though he didn’t win the GG that his defense might eventually sort of transcend his offense (see: Ozzie Smith and his 87 career OPS+). How anyone can look at the hypothetical of 7 or 8 gold gloves with a 100+ OPS+ and the shiny middle infielder counting stats (2000+ hits, 250+HR, 1000+ RBI) that sportswriters love, mixed in with the charisma and showmanship of BP (again, see O. Smith) and completely dismiss the possibility of BP being a candidate someday is beyond me.

George Anderson
05-23-2013, 07:20 PM
I didnt intend to come across rudely.

I will use a smiley face next time.:-)

George Anderson
05-23-2013, 07:29 PM
Dp

westofyou
05-23-2013, 07:34 PM
I know you disagree, but I feel BP has had a very solid last 11+ months and even though he didn’t win the GG that his defense might eventually sort of transcend his offense (see: Ozzie Smith and his 87 career OPS+). How anyone can look at the hypothetical of 7 or 8 gold gloves with a 100+ OPS+ and the shiny middle infielder counting stats (2000+ hits, 250+HR, 1000+ RBI) that sportswriters love, mixed in with the charisma and showmanship of BP (again, see O. Smith) and completely dismiss the possibility of BP being a candidate someday is beyond me.

Ozzie redefined the position though and played on the fastest turf in the world, let's forget Ozzie it's a bad comp. Focus on the 2b Ozzie Bill Mazeroski. He was all glove and a it took years for him to be considered and he AND Ozzie played during low run scoring eras and Phillips in a high scoring era.

Phillips needed to 52 HRs, 750 hits and 399 RBIS at the end of last season to get what you just stated is worth a look.

It also would put him in this group



CAREER
2B
HITS >= 2000
HOMERUNS >= 200
RBI >= 1000

AT BATS AB H HR RBI
1 Joe Morgan 9277 2517 268 1133
2 Roberto Alomar 9073 2724 210 1134
3 Lou Whitaker 8570 2369 244 1084
4 Jeff Kent 7869 2291 357 1428
5 Ryne Sandberg 7744 2213 275 1007
6 Bobby Doerr 7093 2042 223 1247
7 Rogers Hornsby 6051 2280 271 1293


First he has to get there to be in the discussion

R_Webb18
05-23-2013, 07:43 PM
Reds Hall of Fame, yes. :beerme:

pretty much this.

George Anderson
05-23-2013, 07:47 PM
Also on the subject of Mazerowski, keep in mind it took the writers to put him in and the overall consensus of the world of baseball is electing him was very much a mistake because his career really was not HOF worthy.

Phillips will have to far exceed Maz to get in.

757690
05-23-2013, 07:51 PM
Also on the subject of Mazerowski, keep in mind it took the writers to put him in and the overall consensus of the world of baseball is electing him was very much a mistake because his career really was not HOF worthy.

Phillips will have to far exceede Maz to get in.

Or hit one of the most famous homers in MLB history ;)

RedsBaron
05-23-2013, 08:19 PM
Or hit one of the most famous homers in MLB history ;)

I'd love for Brandon to hit a World Series winning HR for the Reds. :thumbup:

Always Red
05-23-2013, 09:09 PM
I'd love for Brandon to hit a World Series winning HR for the Reds. :thumbup:

That would be awesome and fitting. BP has really been the poster boy, along with Bronson Arroyo, for the turnaround by this club over the last 8 years or so, not leaving out Votto, et al, just those two have been here the longest and have been pulling the rope for a very long time.

I really love BP, and come to appreciate him more every day, but until Lou Whitaker is elected, BP will always be in line behind him.

westofyou
05-23-2013, 11:02 PM
I like Brandon Phillips the baseball player, I like him from my "press" exposure to him, he's a great baseball player, I respect him.

He's IMO not a HOF player, doesn't mean anything to me beyond that statement.

I still dig him and the fact he's on the Reds.... and has continued to surprise me.

GAC
05-24-2013, 03:55 AM
If BP makes it then then HOF Committee needs to send a letter of apology to Davey Concepcion.

And I say that as one who loves Phillips. As far as Red's 2Bman I have witnessed in my lifetime, he is the best from a defensive perspective.

redsfandan
05-24-2013, 07:25 AM
The average member of the Hall of Fame has a Hall of Fame Monitor Score (a system designed by Bill James) of 100; Brandon's HOF Monitor Score is 30.

The average HOF member has a Black Ink Score of 27; Brandon's is 4.

The average member of the HOF has a Gray Ink Score of 144; Brandon's is 27.

The average HOF member has a HOF Standards Score of 50; Brandon's is 21.

The most similar batter to Brandon Phillips through his age 31 season is former second baseman Bobby Grich, an excellent player. He became eligible for the HOF in 1992. He received 2.6% of the vote and dropped off the ballot.

Of the ten most similar batters to Phillips in MLB history, only one, Joe Gordon, is in the HOF. Gordon played his last game in 1950, died in 1978 and was voted into the HOF by the Veterans Committee in 2009.

Brandon Phillips has been an excellent player and he will easily make the Hall of Fame...The Reds Hall of Fame. His chances of making the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown are almost nil.

All good points. But ...


Also on the subject of Mazerowski, keep in mind it took the writers to put him in and the overall consensus of the world of baseball is electing him was very much a mistake because his career really was not HOF worthy.

Phillips will have to far exceed Maz to get in.

By some measures BP already HAS passed Maz. BP is better in most of those HOF barometers that RedsBaron threw out and BP still has years left to play. BP has a better career OPS+ (only looking at the same age time frame really doesn't change it much). Maz hit a famous homer in the playoffs. BP is in a position to have his own playoff memories.

Right now, BP doesn't seem like an obvious HOF candidate. But, not every player in the HOF was an obvious HOF type player. Maz got in because of his defense and 1 home run. He had an earlier start to his major league career but he was never as good as BP offensively. If Maz could make it into the HOF why not BP?

Who knows what BP might do in the next 4-5 years. He'll need to add enough to his numbers (hits, hr, sb, runs, rbi, etc) to have a real shot. 2000 hits, 200 hr, 200 sb, 1000 runs, 1000 rbi, and a couple more gold gloves would get him some consideration. He still wouldn't be a 1st ballot guy but he might have a shot at getting in eventually.

redsfandan
05-24-2013, 07:59 AM
If BP makes it then then HOF Committee needs to send a letter of apology to Davey Concepcion.

And I say that as one who loves Phillips. As far as Red's 2Bman I have witnessed in my lifetime, he is the best from a defensive perspective.

They already owe him an apology. Ozzie made it into the HOF on the 1st ballot with 91.7% of the vote. Davey has to hope that the Veteran's Committee will look kindly on him. Was Ozzie really THAT much better than Davey? I don't think so.

To me there are 2 reasons why Ozzie had no problem getting in and Davey hasn't been as lucky.

1 Ozzie was flashy. Davey wasn't.

2 Ozzie was one of the most popular personalities on those Cardinal teams and a popular interview. While Davey was considered a supporting player to Rose, Bench, Morgan, etc and he didn't speak fluent english so he didn't get nearly as much attention.

I remember seeing Ozzie play and being impressed. I still think he was a little overrated (to the point that past reputation would play a part in winning the gold glove instead of merit) and Davey has always been underrated.

Always Red
05-24-2013, 09:31 AM
They already owe him an apology. Ozzie made it into the HOF on the 1st ballot with 91.7% of the vote. Davey has to hope that the Veteran's Committee will look kindly on him. Was Ozzie really THAT much better than Davey? I don't think so.

To me there are 2 reasons why Ozzie had no problem getting in and Davey hasn't been as lucky.

1 Ozzie was flashy. Davey wasn't.

2 Ozzie was one of the most popular personalities on those Cardinal teams and a popular interview. While Davey was considered a supporting player to Rose, Bench, Morgan, etc and he didn't speak fluent english so he didn't get nearly as much attention.

I remember seeing Ozzie play and being impressed. I still think he was a little overrated (to the point that past reputation would play a part in winning the gold glove instead of merit) and Davey has always been underrated.

Davey defined the way SS was played on astroturf, and Ozzie took that to another level.

I love Davey, but have started to waver in my own thoughts on whether or not he should be in the HoF. I've always said if the HoF has room for Pee Wee Reese and Phil Rizutto, then Dave Concepcion should be there too.

If Davey goes, in and I hope he does someday, then Alan Trammell should as well.

George Anderson
05-24-2013, 10:24 AM
By some measures BP already HAS passed Maz. BP is better in most of those HOF barometers that RedsBaron threw out and BP still has years left to play. BP has a better career OPS+ (only looking at the same age time frame really doesn't change it much). Maz hit a famous homer in the playoffs. BP is in a position to have his own playoff memories.

Right now, BP doesn't seem like an obvious HOF candidate. But, not every player in the HOF was an obvious HOF type player. Maz got in because of his defense and 1 home run. He had an earlier start to his major league career but he was never as good as BP offensively. If Maz could make it into the HOF why not BP?

Who knows what BP might do in the next 4-5 years. He'll need to add enough to his numbers (hits, hr, sb, runs, rbi, etc) to have a real shot. 2000 hits, 200 hr, 200 sb, 1000 runs, 1000 rbi, and a couple more gold gloves would get him some consideration. He still wouldn't be a 1st ballot guy but he might have a shot at getting in eventually.

I think everyone will agree that if Phillips would retire at the end of the year at age 32 there is really no way he would make the HOF. I would go a step farther and say he wouldn't get past the first ballot. It is possible he could have a great 4-5 years that would push him towards HOF status but like someone else said if he puts up those type of numbers people are going to be more inclined to look if he is juicing and not so much looking at his numbers. Anything is possible but IMO I just don't see it that likely that Phillips will produce at the level needed towards the past prime part of his career needed to hit the level needed to be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Phillips is a great player though. I often tell people if you think he looks good on TV with the glove you really need to see him in person to appreciate just how much ground he covers.

Also keep in mind Lou Whitaker as great of a career as he had only garnered 2.9% of the HOF vote and was one and done in voting. Phillips has a long way to go before we can equate his career with Whitakers. Mazeroski got in by the Veterans committee and like I said before there was a bit of an outcry over that because many felt like he was not deserving.

cumberlandreds
05-24-2013, 10:29 AM
Phillips is in the realy good player category but not HOF worthy yet. He needs three or four more really good seasons to start considering. If he could have a huge impact in the playoffs/World Series that would help him out a lot. Right now his post season is mired by a small base running blunder last season. Not a good way for the baseball HOF voters to remember him by.

RedsBaron
05-24-2013, 10:33 AM
At this point it is very unlikely that Brandon will make the HOF but almost anything is possible. Bid McPhee played his last game in 1899 and died in 1943, but he made the HOF in 2000.

redsfandan
05-24-2013, 10:41 AM
I think everyone will agree that if Phillips would retire at the end of the year at age 32 there is really no way he would make the HOF. I would go a step farther and say he wouldn't get past the first ballot. It is possible he could have a great 4-5 years that would push him towards HOF status but like someone else said if he puts up those type of numbers people are going to be more inclined to look if he is juicing at not so much looking at his numbers. Anything is possible but IMO I just don't see it that likely that Phillips will produce at the level needed towards the past prime part of his career needed to hit the level needed to be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Phillips is a great player though. I often tell people if you think he looks good on TV with the glove you really need to see him in person to appreciate just how much ground he covers.

Depends on what kind of numbers you think would be necessary for him to start to get HOF consideration.

So far, his stats haven't slipped. IF he can maintain his offensive production, without TOO much of a drop off, for the next 4 years he'd be able to get the stats that I, and BuckeyeRedleg, talked about: a 100+ ops+, 2000 hits, 1000 runs, 200 hr (I know he mentioned 250 hr but that's asking for too much), 1000 rbi, 200 sb, and at least a couple more gold gloves. Those numbers should at least get him in the conversation.

George Anderson
05-24-2013, 10:53 AM
Depends on what kind of numbers you think would be necessary for him to start to get HOF consideration.

So far, his stats haven't slipped. IF he can maintain his offensive production, without TOO much of a drop off, for the next 4 years he'd be able to get the stats that I, and BuckeyeRedleg, talked about: a 100+ ops+, 2000 hits, 1000 runs, 200 hr (I know he mentioned 250 hr but that's asking for too much), 1000 rbi, 200 sb, and at least a couple more gold gloves. Those numbers should at least get him in the conversation.

Lou Whitaker surpassed or came very close to surpassing all of the above and only got 2.9% of the vote.

Whitaker

Hits 2,369
Runs 1,386
HR's 244
RBI 1,084
SB 143
OPS .789

westofyou
05-24-2013, 11:03 AM
Lou Whitaker surpassed or came very close to surpassing all of the above and only got 2.9% of the vote.

Whitaker

Hits 2,369
Runs 1,386
HR's 244
RBI 1,084
SB 143
OPS .789

During a low run era too

redsfandan
05-24-2013, 11:06 AM
Lou Whitaker surpassed or came very close to surpassing all of the above and only got 2.9% of the vote.

Whitaker

Hits 2,369
Runs 1,386
HR's 244
RBI 1,084
SB 143
OPS .789

Got me there. And I remember being surprised that Whitaker was off the ballot so quickly. Oh well.

Tom Servo
05-24-2013, 11:27 AM
Whitaker and Trammell both deserve to be in, ideally at the same time.

westofyou
05-24-2013, 12:17 PM
C Trent Weighs in (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2013/05/24/bar052413/) on this letter:



* INTERESTING HOW SAVANTS also so easily dismiss BP as team MVP after six weeks. They live in the world of numbers. What number measures the runs he saves? The hits he takes away, practically nightly? The outs he creates? Is there a SABRE-fact for that?

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2013, 12:25 PM
SABRE?

Also, Brandon Phillips is a lock for the Reds HOF. Beyond that, very doubtful for Cooperstown.

jojo
05-24-2013, 12:32 PM
C Trent Weighs in (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2013/05/24/bar052413/) on this letter:

Yes, Trent. There is.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-24-2013, 12:52 PM
Lou Whitaker surpassed or came very close to surpassing all of the above and only got 2.9% of the vote.

Whitaker

Hits 2,369
Runs 1,386
HR's 244
RBI 1,084
SB 143
OPS .789

From Whitaker's BR page:


Roberto Alomar: 2320 g at 2B, 116 OPS+, 63.5 WAR, 7 teams. Famous misdeed: Spat at umpire. Result: 2nd-ballot HOFer. Sweet Lou: 2308 g at 2B, 116 OPS+, 69.7 WAR, 1 team. Famous misdeed: Forgot uniform at 1985 ASG. Result: 2.9% of HOF vote. Go figure...

Which kind of makes my point about Phillips possibly being considered for the HOF someday. Of course guys like Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich should be there. One can make a case that they should be there before Sandberg, Alomar, and most definitely Mazerowksi. Again, I'm not arguing who is more worthy objectively (stat-wise) when I discuss Phillips, but I am merely wondering if his hype and fame based off his charisma and defensive theatrics can get him there if he just manages to continue doing what he's been doing offensively over the next 4-5 years.

Sandberg being a slam dunk and Grich and Whitaker not getting in (Whitaker not coming close) makes no sense, but really, neither does the HOF you could say. That still doesn't change the fact that Phillips may one day be considered and if so, you can bet those "Famey" subjective intangibles will be the reason why he gets more votes than a Whitaker.

George Anderson
05-24-2013, 01:22 PM
From Whitaker's BR page:



Which kind of makes my point about Phillips possibly being considered for the HOF someday. Of course guys like Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich should be there. One can make a case that they should be there before Sandberg, Alomar, and most definitely Mazerowksi. Again, I'm not arguing who is more worthy objectively (stat-wise) when I discuss Phillips, but I am merely wondering if his hype and fame based off his charisma and defensive theatrics can get him there if he just manages to continue doing what he's been doing offensively over the next 4-5 years.

Sandberg being a slam dunk and Grich and Whitaker not getting in (Whitaker not coming close) makes no sense, but really, neither does the HOF you could say. That still doesn't change the fact that Phillips may one day be considered and if so, you can bet those "Famey" subjective intangibles will be the reason why he gets more votes than a Whitaker.

Grich and his 2.4% HOF vote total fared worse than Whitaker.

I don't think Phillips charisma and defensive theatrics will be enough to get him in. Even if one day he does match up to or even exceedes Grich and Whitaker statistically, keep in mind they couldn't even get 3% of the vote. No amount of charisma or other intangibles will carry Phillips over the hump to get the needed 75% IMO.

Always Red
05-24-2013, 01:38 PM
Grich and his 2.4% HOF vote total fared worse than Whitaker.

I don't think Phillips charisma and defensive theatrics will be enough to get him in. Even if one day he does match up to or even exceedes Grich and Whitaker statistically, keep in mind they couldn't even get 3% of the vote. No amount of charisma or other intangibles will carry Phillips over the hump to get the needed 75% IMO.

I might be mistaken, but it's my understanding that BP's charisma only plays well here. He seems to rub the rest of the league the wrong way.

westofyou
05-24-2013, 01:43 PM
I might be mistaken, but it's my understanding that BP's charisma only plays well here. He seems to rub the rest of the league the wrong way.

Brandon Phillips is not famous out here I can tell you that.

Norm Chortleton
05-24-2013, 01:50 PM
Bobby Grich? What am I missing? The only thing that separates him from your average mlb middle infielder is his awesome mustache.

George Anderson
05-24-2013, 02:02 PM
Bobby Grich? What am I missing? The only thing that separates him from your average mlb middle infielder is his awesome mustache.

I kinda thought the same thing years ago till I read more on Grich's career and found he was very underrated. Here is a good article on his career.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_18726708

Here is a very good book by Bill James about the HOF. It changed alot of my thinking about the players that have been and have not been inducted. I think James is a supporter of Grich being inducted. I know he also supports Ted Simmons and Joe Torre the player which before I read the book would have made me laugh, but he makes a strong case why.

http://www.amazon.com/Whatever-Happened-Hall-Fame-James/dp/0684800888/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1369414845&sr=1-1&keywords=what+happened+to+the+hall+of+fame

Norm Chortleton
05-24-2013, 02:16 PM
I kinda thought the same thing years ago till I read more on Grich's career and found he was very underrated. Here is a good article on his career.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_18726708

Here is a very good book by Bill James about the HOF. It changed alot of my thinking about the players that have been and have not been inducted. I think James is a supporter of Grich being inducted. I know he also supports Ted Simmons and Joe Torre the player which before I read the book would have made me laugh, but he makes a strong case why.

http://www.amazon.com/Whatever-Happened-Hall-Fame-James/dp/0684800888/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1369414845&sr=1-1&keywords=what+happened+to+the+hall+of+fame

So Grich has a few offensive numbers that are better than the worst HOFer (by far)? You'd have to build a new wing in Cooperstown for all the second basemen who fit that criteria. At least Simmons and Torre were outstanding offensive players at the game's most difficult position. And Torre did have an MVP and a batting title.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-24-2013, 05:09 PM
So Grich has a few offensive numbers that are better than the worst HOFer (by far)? You'd have to build a new wing in Cooperstown for all the second basemen who fit that criteria. At least Simmons and Torre were outstanding offensive players at the game's most difficult position. And Torre did have an MVP and a batting title.

I posted this earlier in this thread (last year). It just kind of gives you an idea of where Grich stands among the best at 2B.


Comparing recent inductees or soon-to-be (Sandberg, Alomar, and Biggio) to Whitaker, Grich and Randolph. I have included career OPS+, WAR, and dWAR, along with popularity (FAME) accomplishments (MVP, All-Star games, Gold Gloves) as well as counting stats (HR, RBI, H, SB, to go along with BA) in games played at Second Base.


-Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = 114 OPS+, WAR 64.9, MVP x 1, Top 5 MVP x 3, AS x 10, GG x 9, dWAR 12.8, 1982 G @ 2B (92% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 277 HR, 1007 RBI, 2225 H, 310 SB, .285 BA).

-Roberto Alomar (1988-2004) = 116 OPS+, WAR 62.9, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 12, GG x 10, dWAR 2.4, 2304 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 207 HR, 1107 RBI, 2687 H, 470 SB, .301 BA).

-Craig Biggio (1988-2007) = 112 OPS+, WAR 62.1, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 7, GG x 4, dWAR -3.8, 1978 G @ 2B (69% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 226 HR, 883 RBI, 2230 H, 321 SB, .285 BA).

-Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = 117 OPS+, WAR 71.4, AS x 5, GG x 3, dWAR 15.4, 2228 G @ 2B (93% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 239 HR, 1041 RBI, 2312 H, 140 SB, .277 BA).

-Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = 125 OPS+, WAR 67.3, AS x 6, GG x 4, dWAR 16.2, 1740 G @ 2B (87% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 197 HR, 753 RBI, 1609 H, 85 SB, .267 BA).

-Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = 104 OPS+, WAR 63, AS x 6, GG x 0, dWAR 19.4, 2132 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 54 HR, 679 RBI, 2190 H, 269 SB, .276 BA).

-Grich and Whitaker lead everyone in OPS+ and WAR.

-Randolph (19.4), Grich (16.2), and Whitaker (15.4) lead all in dWAR (Defensive WAR).

-Sandberg and Alomar dominate the popularity contest of All Star games and Gold Gloves.

-Shocking that Randolph never won a GG, but he lost out to Grich ('75, '76), White ('77-'82, '86, '87), and Whitaker ('83-'85). Towards the end of his career Harold Reynolds ('88-'90) won a few and then Alomar took over ('91-'96, '98-'01).


Top Second Basemen by dWAR (Career Defensive WAR/HOF in bold):

Bill Mazerowski (1956-1972) = dWAR 23.8 (GG x 8)
Joe Gordon (1938-1950) = dWAR 22.4
Frankie Frisch (1919-1937) = dWAR 21.6
Frank White (1973-1990) = dWAR 21.4 (GG x 8)
Nellie Fox (1947-1965) = dWAR 20.9
Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = dWAR 19.4 (GG x 0)
Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = dWAR 16.2 (GG x 4)
Bid McPhee (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
Chase Utley (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
Johnny Evers (1902-1929) = dWAR 15.4
Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = dWAR 15.4 (GG x 3)
Red Schoendienst (1945-1963) = dWAR 15.2
Mark Ellis (2002-) = dWAR 14.3 (GG x 0)
Gil McDougald (1951-1960, 1336 G) = dWAR 14.0
Rogers Hornsby (1915-1937) dWAR 13.9
Bobby Doerr (1937-1951) = dWAR 13.4
Lonny Frey (1933-1948, 1535 G) = dWAR 13.3
Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = dWAR 12.8
Charlie Gehringer (1924-1942) = dWAR 10.7
Nap Lajoie (1896-1916) = dWAR 10.1
Jackie Robinson (1947-1956) = dWAR 10.0

BuckeyeRedleg
05-24-2013, 05:26 PM
Grich and his 2.4% HOF vote total fared worse than Whitaker.

I don't think Phillips charisma and defensive theatrics will be enough to get him in. Even if one day he does match up to or even exceedes Grich and Whitaker statistically, keep in mind they couldn't even get 3% of the vote. No amount of charisma or other intangibles will carry Phillips over the hump to get the needed 75% IMO.


I didn't realize Grich was low. I'm sure it being so long ago (less SABR info) was the reason too. Heck, I know it's a different position, but if Larkin was up for the vote in that same time period as Grich and Whitaker, he might not have gotten in at all. I'm sure he wouldn't have received so low of a percentage as those two, but he might have had to wait a very long time or not gotten in at all.

I would bet if Grich and Whitaker were put up again today they would get a higher percentage and quite possibly even receive enough to continue to make the ballot for a few years (if not the maximum 15 years), especially Whitaker. I think the average voter today is a little more sophisticated. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit, but the explosion of the internet and the wealth of information available now makes me wonder.

As far as Phillips is concerned, his charisma may not be enough, but it certainly was enough for a weak hitting Ozzie Smith. Different position, I know, but his glove transcended anything his bat did. He and Mazerowski seem to be the poster boys for all glove and no bat with a bunch of hype.