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View Full Version : Fangraphs: Rockies to go with 4-man rotation, 75 pitch limit



Redsfan320
06-21-2012, 10:27 AM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-rockies-interesting-rotation-experiment/

So, what are some guys thoughts on this? Pretty curious to see how this turns out myself.

320

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 10:29 AM
I'm all for it. I'd like to see them ditch the 75 pitch limit thing after a while though. But for easing the pitchers into it, I'm fine with that. I've always preferred the 4 man rotation anyway.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 10:32 AM
They have terrible pitching depth. It's a great time to offer up Bailey, Corcino and a couple others for CarGo!

wolfboy
06-21-2012, 11:06 AM
They have terrible pitching depth. It's a great time to offer up Bailey, Corcino and a couple others for CarGo!

It's probably been mentioned before, but Carlos Gonzalez has very bad career splits away from Coors field. I'd rather spend our limited resources elsewhere.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 11:17 AM
Man, that's really going to screw with the Strat-o-Matic pitcher fatigue system for starters.

The most likely thing I see coming of this is the bullpen numbers rising from more exposure. While relievers might show more effective numbers in the current bullpen pecking order used by most teams, this is going to require them to cover more innings night in and night out, not just when the starter is ineffective and needs to be lifted early. We witnessed that last year with the Reds. Ineffective starters blow up any bullpen over the course of the long season. Plus, the more arms you rely on in a game only increases the likelihood that you bring in a guy who doesn't have his stuff that night. Relying heavily on a bullpen before the 7th inning usually does not bring good results in MLB.

oneupper
06-21-2012, 11:26 AM
Pitching in Denver is messed up. Playing baseball in Denver is messed up. I wouldn't be surprised to see pitchers drafted by the Rockies refusing to sign because of this kind of thing.
Or maybe they need a larger humidor.

dougdirt
06-21-2012, 11:53 AM
Bad long term move. This is going to be an issue for not only the pitchers they have now, but for free agents they are trying to attract, their current bullpen, and minor leaguers. In the minor leagues guys are on a 5 day rotation, so what happens if someone goes down and they have to call one of these guys up? Now they have to do something different than what they have been trained to do for years, at a young age? This just has bad news written all over it. Just trade for a pitcher and stay with the 5 man rotation.

dougdirt
06-21-2012, 11:58 AM
Also why can't they just call up Drew Pomeranz? He has 8 starts in AAA, a 3.00 ERA, 42 strikeouts and 16 walks in 41.1 innings. He was already up earlier this year, and wasn't good, but he wasn't bad either (100 ERA+). Seems kind of stupid to go to a 4 man rotation rather than just call Pomeranz back up.

Benihana
06-21-2012, 11:58 AM
It's probably been mentioned before, but Carlos Gonzalez has very bad career splits away from Coors field. I'd rather spend our limited resources elsewhere.

I think GAB plays similarly enough to Coors Field that he could be very effective in Cincinnati. A LH cleanup hitting corner OF is our biggest need. One that is signed for the same timeline as Phillips and Bruce works even better. If we could offload some salary to offset the payroll hit (I'm thinking Stubbs, Bailey, or possibly even Chapman straight up) a move could make a ton of sense.

With the possible exception of Donald Lutz, the Reds don't have a corner OF in the system that will be ready to be an impact player for at least the next five years.

CySeymour
06-21-2012, 12:24 PM
Bad long term move. This is going to be an issue for not only the pitchers they have now, but for free agents they are trying to attract, their current bullpen, and minor leaguers. In the minor leagues guys are on a 5 day rotation, so what happens if someone goes down and they have to call one of these guys up? Now they have to do something different than what they have been trained to do for years, at a young age? This just has bad news written all over it. Just trade for a pitcher and stay with the 5 man rotation.

No kidding! Plus when you factor in they are currently 16 games out, there is no reason to endanger their current pitchers.

Degenerate39
06-21-2012, 12:29 PM
It's probably been mentioned before, but Carlos Gonzalez has very bad career splits away from Coors field. I'd rather spend our limited resources elsewhere.

Is Coors that different than GABP?

dougdirt
06-21-2012, 12:30 PM
Is Coors that different than GABP?

Yes. Coors changes how a pitch acts.

vaticanplum
06-21-2012, 12:35 PM
Bad long term move. This is going to be an issue for not only the pitchers they have now, but for free agents they are trying to attract, their current bullpen, and minor leaguers. In the minor leagues guys are on a 5 day rotation, so what happens if someone goes down and they have to call one of these guys up? Now they have to do something different than what they have been trained to do for years, at a young age? This just has bad news written all over it. Just trade for a pitcher and stay with the 5 man rotation.

I agree. I know there will be folks who support a four-man rotation because it's reminiscent of the good old days, they don't make 'em like that anymore, etc., but they DON'T make them like that anymore. The ballparks have changed and the hitting has changed. You can't go to a four-man rotation unless you have a bullpen of extraordinary talent and depth -- and beyond that, a bullpen that is trained slightly differently along with the starting pitching, as dougdirt points out. Are they going to revamp their entire farm system training processes? Avoid trading for or signing pitchers from outside their system?

wolfboy
06-21-2012, 01:31 PM
Is Coors that different than GABP?

I looked and he has put up a career .905 OPS in GABP, albeit in a very small sample size of 55 PA. His overall splits away from Coors still concern me quite a bit.

Reds/Flyers Fan
06-21-2012, 02:15 PM
It's probably been mentioned before, but Carlos Gonzalez has very bad career splits away from Coors field. I'd rather spend our limited resources elsewhere.

Yea, I think I'd take my chances.

People on this forum were foaming at the mouth to stay away from Matt Holliday a few years ago, dismissing him as a Coors Field mirage also.

DGullett35
06-21-2012, 02:48 PM
Im surprised that the Rangers haven't went to a 4 man rotation. Nolan Ryan has said that there is no pitch counts for their starters and that they are told that the games they start are also expected to be finished by them.

Chip R
06-21-2012, 02:55 PM
Man, that's really going to screw with the Strat-o-Matic pitcher fatigue system for starters.

The most likely thing I see coming of this is the bullpen numbers rising from more exposure. While relievers might show more effective numbers in the current bullpen pecking order used by most teams, this is going to require them to cover more innings night in and night out, not just when the starter is ineffective and needs to be lifted early. We witnessed that last year with the Reds. Ineffective starters blow up any bullpen over the course of the long season. Plus, the more arms you rely on in a game only increases the likelihood that you bring in a guy who doesn't have his stuff that night. Relying heavily on a bullpen before the 7th inning usually does not bring good results in MLB.

Yeah. Their bullpen is going to be wasted come August.

traderumor
06-21-2012, 03:30 PM
Yea, I think I'd take my chances.

People on this forum were foaming at the mouth to stay away from Matt Holliday a few years ago, dismissing him as a Coors Field mirage also.Really? I recall a pretty fair representation on either side of that discussion. Then I go to baseball-reference.com and see that his numbers do appear to be inflated for his time with Colorado, although he has still been a solid contributor with Oakland and the Cards. He's a good hitter, and still is a good hitter, but he's not a HOF caliber hitter that you would say he is if his numbers stayed around the Coors level.

I think that knowing he was going to want paid for those years of production, which another squad did (and lost their real star as a consequence), was a pretty good reason to want to be cautious. The Cards made their choice and their true franchise player is now playing in Anaheim. I wonder where ours would be playing? I'll take our post Holliday availability situation over the Cards, even with their unlikely WS in their hip pocket.

westofyou
06-21-2012, 04:41 PM
History Suggests Rockies' 4-Man Rotation Won't Last Long

http://mobile.mlb.sbnation.com/2012/6/19/3097968/colorado-rockies-four-man-pitching-rotation-starters/in/2861985

In the 1970s, there were 46 pitcher-seasons that included at least 40 starts.
In the 1980s, there were two: Jim Clancy in 1982 and knuckleballer Charlie Hough in 1987.
In the 1990s, there were none.
In the 2000s, there were none.

No pitcher has started more than 36 games in a season since 1991 ... when Greg Maddux started 37.

Captain Hook
06-21-2012, 08:24 PM
Bad long term move. This is going to be an issue for not only the pitchers they have now, but for free agents they are trying to attract, their current bullpen, and minor leaguers. In the minor leagues guys are on a 5 day rotation, so what happens if someone goes down and they have to call one of these guys up? Now they have to do something different than what they have been trained to do for years, at a young age? This just has bad news written all over it. Just trade for a pitcher and stay with the 5 man rotation.

I thinks it's safe to say that most MLB pitchers would already think twice before going to Coors to play so I doubt this hurts them in that regard.There's even a chance they could get a guy they wouldn't have been able to get before that would go there because they have a four man rotation.The Rockies I assume would be willing to pay a FA starter more considering they're only going to have to pay four starters and starters usually make more.There's also guys out there that I would guess would welcome more starts.

I doubt this idea of a four man rotation works.I'm just saying that there could be some unexpected advantages when it come to recruiting.

757690
06-21-2012, 08:40 PM
http://inkjot.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/very-very-bad-idea.jpg

lidspinner
06-22-2012, 10:02 AM
count me in as one who loves it...I dont think it will last long but I love it when teams try and think outside the box and not do what everyone else tells them they have to do...sure history has proven that a 4 man rotation will not work long term but I have not read anywhere that says they are doing this for the rest of the years of the franchise....give it a try, whats the worse that can happen, its not like their staff was killing it out there.

I am in the group that feels batters get a feel for a pitcher and tend to hit a pitcher better after seeing him a few times through the lineup, say 5th inning and on....I dont have any stats to back this up at the moment, although I am working on it....but I feel if you have a great bullpen and have enough depth in the minors to go grab someone if needed to give a guy a rest, then I love the idea of changing out your pitchers every few innings....my disclaimer is I do not think this could work for an entire season but I would love to see a team try something like this in the playoffs....

So if we are looking at the Reds: Game 1

JC....pitches the 1st 4 innings and HOPEFULLY see's each batter no more than twice and a few batters once...(haha)....
*bring in Homer to pitch innings 5-6
*Chapman,Marshall, Masset, logan and arredondo finish out the next 3 innings.

Game 2:

Bronson gives us 3 innings of nail biting action
Latos gives us 3-4 innings of the same
2 entirely different pitchers with different arm angles and release points
bring Lecure in for 2 innings followed by Simon and Hoover and one of the pitchers that didnt pitch the night before.

Game 3 is where it gets hard

you start with Leake and have to hope he can give you 4 innings....then you play with the pen in the same way you would on any other series but being the playoffs you are not fully worried about giving them a rest.

Again....I would never be a fan of this working full time or really for any long stretch, but i really think you would have batters so off balance that it could work....again, it could....you will have games where your starter gets rocked in the 1st few innings and then your in trouble and would have to alter the next few games to adjust but for a playoff series I could see this really working.

back to the topic at hand....if the Rockies can get this going and working then I could see them using this for just such a thing as the playoffs....its great baseball thinking and while it might not work, its great to try something out of the ordinary. who knows, maybe they will start a trend?

PuffyPig
06-22-2012, 10:32 AM
count me in as one who loves it...I dont think it will last long but I love it when teams try and think outside the box and not do what everyone else tells them they have to do...sure history has proven that a 4 man rotation will not work long term


I'm not sure why you should try something that you "don't think will last long" and you know "history has proven will not work long term".

Using your 4 best starters for 75 pitches maximum means your best pitchers are pitching less and your bullpen is pitching more. That can't be good.

The more your starters go deeper into games, the better your bullpen seems to get.

Chip R
06-22-2012, 10:42 AM
They are going to need a lot of Scott Sullivan type pitchers for their bullpen if they are really going to do this.

Chip R
08-07-2012, 10:55 PM
Yahoo Sports weighs in on this experiment.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rockies--pitching-strategy-is-historically-wacky--and-not-working-.html

Tom Servo
08-07-2012, 11:12 PM
Pretty good article, but the 'poor Jim Tracy' tone seems a bit off to me. I mean, he knows he can either try it or be one of the fall guys over the fact that the team hasn't done anything noteworthy since that 2009 season. He's hardly a victim.