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View Full Version : Thursday June 21, 2012 Minor League Updates



dougdirt
06-21-2012, 07:27 PM
Louisville and Pensacola started at 7.

Billings begins at 9pm.
AZL Reds and Bakersfield begin at 10.

Dayton is off.

Tim Gustafson allowed 2 unearned runs for Louisville in the first (Cody Puckett error).

Pensacola scoreless after half an inning. Tim Crabbe to the mound.

dougdirt
06-21-2012, 07:54 PM
Bill Rhinehart ties the Bats game with a 2 run homer.

texasdave
06-21-2012, 08:05 PM
Bats tack on four more runs in a six-run second. Lead 6-2. Tim Gustafson has walked four in two innings of work.
Janish walked. Rhinehart hit a bomb. Puckett, Jones and Gathright follow with singles. Negron doubles. A Costanzo ground out and a Navarro single cap the rally.

texasdave
06-21-2012, 08:10 PM
Ryan Lamarre with a walk and a double and not much else from the Blue Hoo offense. Tim Crabbe has thrown 3 scoreless frames, giving up 3 hits and a walk while striking out 1. No score at the end of the third.

klw
06-21-2012, 08:33 PM
Can Rhinehart play in the OF at all or is he strictly a 1B/DH guy?

texasdave
06-21-2012, 09:00 PM
Scranton scores in the top of the fifth but the Bats answer with a Paul Janish jack. They lead 7-3. Janish continues to hit putting up numbers that Willie Harris can only dream about, OPSing in the neighborhood. Since Janish is the better fielder I have no idea. Wait. I have one idea why Harris is with the big club.

texasdave
06-21-2012, 09:18 PM
A Puckett walk along with a Jones singles plates a second run in the bottom of the fifth. Now 8-2 Bats.

texasdave
06-21-2012, 09:20 PM
Pensacola draws a run closer and now trails by a score of 3-2. Means was hit by a pitch and a single by Yordanys Perez moved him along to third. He promptly scored on a wild pitch. Chris Manno took over and pitched a scoreless inning, striking out two.

mace
06-21-2012, 09:37 PM
Puckett is 3-3 with a walk, and rejuvenated Louisville leads 11-3 after six.

mace
06-21-2012, 09:53 PM
Sal Romano off to a nice start to his game and career--three scoreless innings, two hits, two K, no walks. Billings leads 1-0 on a double by Maddox, driving in Jesse Winker, who was HBP.

mace
06-21-2012, 09:55 PM
And speaking of professional debuts--Vaughn Covington gets the start tonight for the AZL Reds.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:17 PM
Ty Washington leads off with a triple and scores on a ground ball. AZL Reds lead 1-0 after one behind Covington.

_Sir_Charles_
06-21-2012, 10:24 PM
Paul Janish having himself a night.

2 for 2. Homerun and a double. 3 walks. Scored 3 runs. 2 Rbi's.

ba up to .296. OPS over .840. 15 of his 29 hits have been for extra bases.

Yeah, I'd like to see Paul up with the big club. I think he's a more valuable backup to Cozart than anybody else we have.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:29 PM
Pensacola falls 3-2, managing only four hits. Wasted good relief from Manno and Partch. LaMarre was 1-3 with a 2B and two BB.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:33 PM
Avain Rachal, the kid just out of high school in Texas, tripled in Jonathan Reynoso (single) in the second and Julio Morillo drove Rachal in with a double. Then Washington's second hit brought home Morillo. AZL Reds lead 4-0 after two.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:39 PM
Billings goes up 2-0 in the fifth on a single by Robert Ramirez and a bunch of wild pitches.

More important was Sal Romano's auspicious debut: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, O BB, 3 K. Two of the three hits were to Socrates Brito. I boldly predict that if he continues to give up the majority of his hits to guys named Socrates, he'll have a pretty nice career.

Now, Dan Langfield makes his debut.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:42 PM
Meanwhile, Vaughn Covington gave up his first run in the third. The AZL Reds lead 4-1.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:44 PM
Carlos Fisher stumbled in the ninth, but Louisville had plenty of cushion, winning 11-6. Big nights for Puckett and Janish. Gathright, Navarro and Daryl Jones all had two hits, to boot.

mace
06-21-2012, 10:47 PM
Bakersfield is 1-1 after one. Hamilton was not involved in the run. Josh Smith is pitching.

TOBTTReds
06-21-2012, 10:58 PM
Langfield through two innings. 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 BB, 1 K

mace
06-21-2012, 11:24 PM
Steve Selsky, playing his first game in Bakersfield, has cracked a pair of home runs. Hamilton has a couple hits and SB #81. The Blaze lead 5-1 in the fifth.

mace
06-21-2012, 11:26 PM
Covington ran into control problems in the fourth and was relieved by Lorgi Pineda. The AZL Reds lead 5-4 after four. Jonathan Reynoso, like Rachal, is 2-2 with a 3B.

mace
06-21-2012, 11:28 PM
Billings is up 3-0 after eight. Sammy Diaz is 2-4. Jimmy Moran followed Romano and Langfield with a scoreless inning. Jordan Remer is in to pitch the ninth.

camisadelgolf
06-21-2012, 11:36 PM
Steve Selsky, playing his first game in Bakersfield, has cracked a pair of home runs. Hamilton has a couple hits and SB #81. The Blaze lead 5-1 in the fifth.
Two homers in two pitches. Pretty decent start. The nice thing is that Bakersfield is only two hours away from where he was born. I wouldn't be surprised if he has some family at the game tonight.

mace
06-21-2012, 11:58 PM
Remer and Bennett Klimesh completed the shutout for Billings, presenting Romano with his first professional win.

mace
06-22-2012, 12:00 AM
AZL Reds are tied 5-5 after six. Reynoso is 3-3. He's a tall, right-handed-hitting outfielder who hit .236 last year for the DSL Reds.

mace
06-22-2012, 12:04 AM
Tucker Barnhart is 3-3 with a 2B, raising his average to .281. Bakersfield still leads 5-1 after six.

mace
06-22-2012, 12:07 AM
Hamilton has three hits, two SB, a caught stealing, a run, an RBI and an error. Kid fills the stat sheet. It's now 7-1. Travis Mattair has homered.

corkedbat
06-22-2012, 12:08 AM
Of the guys in Rookie ball this year, Romano is the pitcher I think most likely to "go Cingrani" and start rising up through the ranks.

mace
06-22-2012, 12:24 AM
Brackman relieved Josh Smith in the 7th for Bakersfield. He'd been starting. Perhaps there's been a change of direction--which would seem like a good thing.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 06:25 AM
Tucker Barnhart went 5-5 with a home run and a double for the Blaze, who won 12-2.

OesterPoster
06-22-2012, 08:14 AM
Billings goes up 2-0 in the fifth on a single by Robert Ramirez and a bunch of wild pitches.

More important was Sal Romano's auspicious debut: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, O BB, 3 K. Two of the three hits were to Socrates Brito. I boldly predict that if he continues to give up the majority of his hits to guys named Socrates, he'll have a pretty nice career.

Now, Dan Langfield makes his debut.

I can't believe all of you missed a golden opportunity to drop a Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure reference here.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 08:17 AM
I can't believe all of you missed a golden opportunity to drop a Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure reference here.

The Mustangs announcer dropped a reference or two the other night about it. :thumbup:

holster10
06-22-2012, 08:38 AM
I am surprised Billy Hamilton has not yet been promoted. Maybe the Reds brass know something I don't.

camisadelgolf
06-22-2012, 08:47 AM
I am surprised Billy Hamilton has not yet been promoted. Maybe the Reds brass know something I don't.
They know that Bakersfield is Hamilton's best chance at playing in the post-season.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 09:00 AM
I am surprised Billy Hamilton has not yet been promoted. Maybe the Reds brass know something I don't.

Well, what is it that you know?

Hamilton has things he can work on in Bakersfield. There is another very good shortstop in AA and the guy playing shortstop in AAA is also playing very well and also a very good defender. You can't promote a guy up a level unless you have a plan for the guy at his position ahead of him.

Right now, Billy Hamilton is a slap hitter who strikes out 17% of the time he steps to the plate. That isn't good. He has a .116 Isolated power.

Here are the OPS numbers for guys in the Major Leagues with a 16-18% strikeout rate (that is 1% in each direction of Hamilton) and a sub .130 ISoP since the start of 2011 with at least 300 PA's:
.728
.721
.719
.706
.692
.692
.688
.663
.639
.633
.630
.603
.599
.591
.543
.528
.508
.482

The game that Billy Hamilton currently has is not one that is going to translate to the Major Leagues. He has plenty of work to do.

texasdave
06-22-2012, 09:40 AM
Well, what is it that you know?

Hamilton has things he can work on in Bakersfield. There is another very good shortstop in AA and the guy playing shortstop in AAA is also playing very well and also a very good defender. You can't promote a guy up a level unless you have a plan for the guy at his position ahead of him.

Right now, Billy Hamilton is a slap hitter who strikes out 17% of the time he steps to the plate. That isn't good. He has a .116 Isolated power.

Here are the OPS numbers for guys in the Major Leagues with a 16-18% strikeout rate (that is 1% in each direction of Hamilton) and a sub .130 ISoP since the start of 2011 with at least 300 PA's:
.728
.721
.719
.706
.692
.692
.688
.663
.639
.633
.630
.603
.599
.591
.543
.528
.508
.482

The game that Billy Hamilton currently has is not one that is going to translate to the Major Leagues. He has plenty of work to do.


Heck, the Reds have a player with a lower OPS than all of those and he DHed a game. LOL. Sure there's room for Billy. He is a Dusty-type player if I ever saw one. Man is he fast.

Scrap Irony
06-22-2012, 01:59 PM
The game that Billy Hamilton currently has is not one that is going to translate to the Major Leagues. He has plenty of work to do.

Billy Hamilton's last two halves of baseball as a professional:

Dayton (A-) .333/ .396/ .410/ .806
Bakersfield (A+) .331/ .416/ .447/ .864

Overall, in around 600 ABs:
.332/ .408/ .430/ 838 130 SB/ 29 CS

While I agree that he has plenty to work on, let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Hamilton is, by all accounts aside from yours, a supremely gifted athlete who focused on baseball only two years ago. He learned how to switch hit as a professional (something that's incredibly rare). He makes plays literally no one else makes at his position. His slugging percentage is obviously speed-driven, but a .450 slugging isn't bad, especially from a guy that's at the top of the order, takes a walk, and steals as many bases as Hamilton does.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 02:47 PM
Billy Hamilton's last two halves of baseball as a professional:

Dayton (A-) .333/ .396/ .410/ .806
Bakersfield (A+) .331/ .416/ .447/ .864

Overall, in around 600 ABs:
.332/ .408/ .430/ 838 130 SB/ 29 CS

While I agree that he has plenty to work on, let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Hamilton is, by all accounts aside from yours, a supremely gifted athlete who focused on baseball only two years ago. He learned how to switch hit as a professional (something that's incredibly rare). He makes plays literally no one else makes at his position. His slugging percentage is obviously speed-driven, but a .450 slugging isn't bad, especially from a guy that's at the top of the order, takes a walk, and steals as many bases as Hamilton does.
I really think people need to pay more attention to what I say. No where have I said Hamilton is a fantastic athlete. What I said is that he isn't a super athlete on par with guys like Josh Hamilton.

BA/OBP/SLG in the minors doesn't just translate forward. It doesn't.

Let's take a quick math session here and just project Billy Hamilton based on what we know about him.....

Let's say he has a 9% walk rate and a 17% strikeout rate at the MLB level with 2 home runs that go over the fence. Let's toss in 12 triples and 30 doubles. Sound reasonable? We will also toss in 3 sac bunts, a sac fly and 5 HBP's.

Here is what his line would be given a BABIP between .314 and .347, something that isn't a given at all.



PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SH SF AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP
650 583 150 30 12 2 58 111 5 3 1 .257 .329 .360 .689 .314
650 583 155 30 12 2 58 111 5 3 1 .266 .337 .369 .706 .325
650 583 160 30 12 2 58 111 5 3 1 .274 .345 .377 .722 .335
650 583 165 30 12 2 58 111 5 3 1 .283 .352 .386 .738 .346


Even with a much higher than you should expect BABIP, Hamilton, with the power/walks/strikeouts supplied, is a .738 OPS bat.

Career BABIP for other known speedsters:

Michael Bourn: .345
Deion Sanders: .298
Rickey Henderson: .305
Bo Jackson: .320
Willy Taveras: .320
Juan Pierre: .314
Dee Gordon: .310
Vince Coleman: .314

What if Hamilton finds his way into most of that group and settles at .315-.320? Then we are looking at a guy who might OPS .680-.700.

Now, there can be plenty of value in that because if it is coming along with a .340 OBP, that works just fine when coupled with his stealing and defense. But my point is more that he has plenty to work on still offensively as well as defensively because his offensive game isn't something that is going to come forward and produce like it has in the minors this year at the MLB level without improvements somewhere in the peripherals (be it losing some strikeouts, adding some power, adding more walks.... something needs to change).

redsof72
06-22-2012, 04:24 PM
Of the guys in Rookie ball this year, Romano is the pitcher I think most likely to "go Cingrani" and start rising up through the ranks.

There are a lot of people who really like Romano. Lets see how it plays out but I agree, if his performance bears out some of the things you hear, he will start to draw some attention.

Scrap Irony
06-22-2012, 05:48 PM
doug, he's lost strike outs for the past two years. The first half of last season, his K rate was ridiculous. Then, as he gained experience, it lessened greatly. This season, he's again improved his K rate.

He's looking an awful lot like Dexter Fowler, but with better speed. And, at this point, at SS. Fowler had a higher K rate, less power, and hit in the same league. Fowler improved his K rate; why wouldn't Hamilton?

Don't like Fowler? How about Rafael Furcal? Higher K rate again, less slugging. Fewer walks, too. He turned out pretty good, yes?

Brett Gardner is another one, doug. His K rate was (again) much higher than Hamilton's in A+, and his slugging about the same. He's turned into a pretty spectacular major league leadoff hitter.

And those are literally three of the first five guys I looked up. (The others being Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.)

It's one thing to show numbers from the major leagues, but Hamilton is still learning his craft. And he's showing some monumental improvement AND producing at a phenomenal rate.

I get that you don't like him as a prospect nearly as much as... well, anyone else. I get that he needs to do some work. But, fact is, he's showing some pretty solid signs right now, regardless of current IsoSlg or K rate.

Scrap Irony
06-22-2012, 05:52 PM
I really think people need to pay more attention to what I say. No where have I said Hamilton is a fantastic athlete. What I said is that he isn't a super athlete on par with guys like Josh Hamilton.

I really don't want to get into this again, but if I were to show you tweets and quotes from respected baseball talent evaluators that commented on his extreme athelticism, would you then admit you were wrong?

TOBTTReds
06-22-2012, 05:55 PM
I said is that he isn't a super athlete on par with guys like Josh Hamilton.

I guess I already missed an argument on this. But I respect a lot of things you say, and this is one that I think you are way off on.

Unless you are saying he isn't up there because of his strength. But as far as athleticism goes, it's an 80 if you want to grade it. And he is a far better athlete than Josh Hamilton today.

Blitz Dorsey
06-22-2012, 06:21 PM
BA/OBP/SLG in the minors doesn't just translate forward. It doesn't.

I used to say the same thing about Drew Stubbs' minor-league numbers, but you and others would argue with me.

Hamilton will be fine. If Stubbs can carve out a Big League career based totally on speed (OK and some occasional power) than the even-faster Hamilton will too. The question is how good of a MLB player he will be. Not sure about that, but I have no doubt he'll be in The Show for years. And at least he knows he's a "slap hitter" ... we don't have to worry about him thinking he's some power hitter.

membengal
06-22-2012, 06:31 PM
I really don't want to get into this again, but if I were to show you tweets and quotes from respected baseball talent evaluators that commented on his extreme athelticism, would you then admit you were wrong?

No he won't.

Especially not while he's doubling down on his Hamilton sucks narrative.

camisadelgolf
06-22-2012, 07:18 PM
Wow. I doubt someone here said Hamilton sucks. As for the comparison to Josh Hamilton and athleticism, I don't remember reading that argument (let's be honest--I skip or skim most posts), but if anyone said Billy isn't as athletic as Josh, I'm sure he meant it in an "overall baseball package" kind of way. Josh has a better arm, significantly more power, and a better hit tool. Billy's only edge is speed, and although he's an 80, that in itself can only get you so far. I have a feeling that what Doug is trying to do is to keep the expectations for Billy Hamilton more reasonable. I'm excited about Billy, too, but he seems to have a ways to go before he's an effective Major League hitter, and there are people around here (and in the organization, I'm sure) talking about promoting him to MLB. I don't think it's crazy to say that if you send Hamilton up now, he'll probably struggle a great deal. I think that's basically what Doug's trying to say. But no one likes having dreams smashed, so I think that's why people are getting defensive. That, and Doug isn't exactly tactful about his message. Just my two cents.

membengal
06-22-2012, 07:23 PM
Doug gets married to narratives and loses perspective.

camisadelgolf
06-22-2012, 07:28 PM
Doug gets married to narratives and loses perspective.
If there's one thing Doug has shown, it's that you can't change his mind without data, quotes from scouts, etc. That doesn't necessarily mean Doug doesn't have more to learn about backing down, too, but I'd just let it go. This is the best forum on the whole site, but the petty arguments drag it down imho. Arguments are good, but the same ones over and over get pretty tiring.

membengal
06-22-2012, 07:32 PM
Heck, you can't even change his mind with data. The Stubbs stuff for years on this board.

In any event, despite Doug's campaign to ruin enjoyment of how fun Hamilton is, I will continue to find his season historically fun.

camisadelgolf
06-22-2012, 07:53 PM
Heck, you can't even change his mind with data. The Stubbs stuff for years on this board.

In any event, despite Doug's campaign to ruin enjoyment of how fun Hamilton is, I will continue to find his season historically fun.
Good or bad, I don't think Stubbs has done anything that went against anything Doug said could happen. I could be wrong though.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 08:18 PM
I really don't want to get into this again, but if I were to show you tweets and quotes from respected baseball talent evaluators that commented on his extreme athelticism, would you then admit you were wrong?

No. You continue to not understand what I am saying. Billy Hamilton is arguably the most athletic player the Reds have the rights to, Majors or Minors. I still don't consider him a super athlete on par with a guy like Josh Hamilton who can run very fast, throw very hard, jump very high and has big time strength. Those are the things I consider when I think of a super athlete, which is what was originally brought up.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 08:21 PM
I used to say the same thing about Drew Stubbs' minor-league numbers, but you and others would argue with me.

Hamilton will be fine. If Stubbs can carve out a Big League career based totally on speed (OK and some occasional power) than the even-faster Hamilton will too. The question is how good of a MLB player he will be. Not sure about that, but I have no doubt he'll be in The Show for years. And at least he knows he's a "slap hitter" ... we don't have to worry about him thinking he's some power hitter.

My argument with Stubbs was that his stuff in the minors WOULDN'T transfer forward, but he had untapped power that would help him make that transition to the Majors. If Stubbs was hitting just 5 HR's a season, like he was in the minors, he wouldn't have had any kind of success. But Stubbs projected to be a 15-20 HR guy and because of that it is why I projected him to move forward with his general numbers from the minors.

Stubbs and Hamilton aren't even close to the same kind of player, so saying because Stubbs then Hamilton doesn't work.

Now if you wanted to go down the road of saying because Brett Gargner, then Hamilton, we can have that discussion because the two are a lot more comparable.

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 08:36 PM
If there's one thing Doug has shown, it's that you can't change his mind without data, quotes from scouts, etc. That doesn't necessarily mean Doug doesn't have more to learn about backing down, too, but I'd just let it go. This is the best forum on the whole site, but the petty arguments drag it down imho. Arguments are good, but the same ones over and over get pretty tiring.

I will be the first to admit that I am incredibly stubborn. But I chalk it up to the fact that when I make up my mind, it is generally based on a whole lot of facts/research/studying/observation. Now whether you want to argue that I am just crazy.... well, I am willing to listen to such an argument.

corkedbat
06-22-2012, 10:26 PM
Blazin Billy leads off the game and promptly pilfers #83. Whoda thunk it?

corkedbat
06-22-2012, 10:29 PM
Billy moves to 3rd on a K by Lohman that gets through the catcher and then scores on GO by Dominic D'Anna. 1-0 Blaze middle of the 1st

dougdirt
06-22-2012, 10:30 PM
Wrong thread corked. Today is Friday.

corkedbat
06-22-2012, 10:31 PM
woops! thanks DD!