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dougdirt
07-02-2012, 07:06 AM
John Sickels came out with his Top 120 without draft picks included (count on about 15 or so draft picks to be inside the Top 120 at years end as well as maybe an international guy or two). Here is the link for the entire list:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update

Here are the Reds, with previous ranking in ( )

15) Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds (57)
61) Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (120)
63) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (HM)
94) Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (NR)
114) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (NR)

Not a bad showing for our guys.

bellhead
07-02-2012, 08:09 AM
I'd say it's a great showing, 5 in the top 125 after trading most of the major guys away last year to acquire Latos, and Marshall.

camisadelgolf
07-02-2012, 08:48 AM
60% of Pensacola's rotation is in the top 120. That's almost as impressive as the Mariners' AA squad in Jackson, which had Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but if all goes well, could you imagine a rotation that features Aroldis Chapman, Robert Stephenson, Nick Travieso, Dan Corcino, and someone like Sal Romano, Drew Cisco, Ismael Guillon, J.C. Sulbaran, or Tony Cingrani?

kaldaniels
07-02-2012, 08:58 AM
Not that I agree with 15, but I did expect Hamilton to suprise on the upside given all the hype.

kaldaniels
07-02-2012, 09:00 AM
Shelby Miller headed in the right direction, 6th down to 35th now.

OesterPoster
07-02-2012, 10:28 AM
Shelby Miller headed in the right direction, 6th down to 35th now.

For a top prospect, he's had a pretty poor year so far. Suddenly very hittable at the AAA level, plus he's walking a ton more guys. And he's giving up a crapload of HRs.

dougdirt
07-02-2012, 10:52 AM
For a top prospect, he's had a pretty poor year so far. Suddenly very hittable at the AAA level, plus he's walking a ton more guys. And he's giving up a crapload of HRs.

There are reports that his velocity is quite a bit lower than it used to be.

OesterPoster
07-02-2012, 11:10 AM
There are reports that his velocity is quite a bit lower than it used to be.

Ruh-roh. Wonder if he has some pain somewhere. I saw him against Dayton when he was in Low A, and the guy was practically unhittable.

jojo
07-02-2012, 11:32 AM
60% of Pensacola's rotation is in the top 120. That's almost as impressive as the Mariners' AA squad in Jackson, which had Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but if all goes well, could you imagine a rotation that features Aroldis Chapman, Robert Stephenson, Nick Travieso, Dan Corcino, and someone like Sal Romano, Drew Cisco, Ismael Guillon, J.C. Sulbaran, or Tony Cingrani?

I've got a ball signed by Walker, Paxton and Hultzen.... :)

Scrap Irony
07-02-2012, 12:48 PM
Not that rankings matter, but you cannot tell me Henry Rodriguez (career .310/ .359/ .443/ .802) isn't one of the 120 best prospects in baseball. At 22, he's young for AA and has hit the ball for a very high average for two years now, all while switching positions to 3B. Speaking of his glove, it's been a net positive at his new position, where he shows arm strength enough to stick.

His power isn't all that great, but it's serviceable at around .450. His career obp is .360 and showing signs of major (BA-driven) improvement; the past two seasons have seen it in the .370 range. He's a lifetime .310 hitter, with his last two seasons bouncing up into the .340 range. He's even had two 30-steal seasons in a row.

On the list of top 120 prospects, Wilmer Flores' line is well below Rodriguez's, though, to be fair, he is about a year ahead on the progression through the minor league ladder. Kaleb Cowart's line is worse across the board (.284/ .346/ .444/ .791). Cowart is a couple year's younger, but has only recently moved up to one rung below Rodriguez.
Cheslor Cuthbert's line (.249/ .322/ .374/ .696) is apalling.

Jefry Marte's a 21 year old in AA that made the Honorable Mention list. His numbers (career .258/ .320/ .380/ .700)-- both career and season (.274/ .342/ .402/ .745)-- are well below Rodriguez's. Both play 3B. Matt Davidson, another Honorable Mention 3B, has the following line: .265/ .348/ .446/ .794. He's a year younger, but has no speed. Zach Cox has the line .291/ .346/ .425/ .771, is on the same path, years-wise, but also has no speed. Cody Asche's line, .264/ .318/ .344/ .662, is downright horrid, is the same age, and has no speed, but he's also in the honorable mention portion of the list.

Rodriguez will surprise people like Sickels, IMO. He'll out-produce at least half of these guys at the major league level, likely more than that.

dougdirt
07-02-2012, 12:57 PM
Rodriguez just doesn't have a lot of upside. He is probably close to being a finished product. He isn't going to find his power he has been missing like some of those guys have a chance to. He isn't going to be an outstanding defender (likely) like some of those guys might be.

Kingspoint
07-02-2012, 01:59 PM
Three in the top-63. I'll take that, especially considering that two are pitchers and one a SS (at this point of his career).

Scrap Irony
07-02-2012, 02:00 PM
How is he close to a finished product and the others aren't, doug?

Age?

It's one year with some of them, two years with others, and dead even with more.

He's improved his slugging each of the past three full years, his BA has continued to climb, and he's going to end up fine at the hot corner.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2012, 02:28 PM
What scares me is how many Cardinals prospects made this list. It's truly a ridiculous number. And the Pirates too.

dougdirt
07-02-2012, 02:34 PM
How is he close to a finished product and the others aren't, doug?

Age?

It's one year with some of them, two years with others, and dead even with more.

He's improved his slugging each of the past three full years, his BA has continued to climb, and he's going to end up fine at the hot corner.

From a projection standpoint, he is about topped out. His hit tool isn't going to get better (based on scouts OFP's). His power isn't going to get much better at all. His defense isn't going to get better.

Other guys are more raw and could develop into better hitters, develop power, hone in their defensive skills. Rodriguez, by scouting reports, probably doesn't have a whole lot of room to grow into his game.

His ISO at each stop is:
Low A: .166
High A: .157
AA: .117

Sure, his slugging has gone up, but only because his average has gone up. His power has actually gone down.

He can hit, but his power is entirely limited to the pull side from both sides of the plate. Up the middle and to the opposite field he is absolutely a slap hitter.

dougdirt
07-02-2012, 02:35 PM
What scares me is how many Cardinals prospects made this list. It's truly a ridiculous number. And the Pirates too.

We had 5. The most anyone else had was 7. I am not all that concerned that those two teams had a bunch. It isn't like we had 1.

Benihana
07-02-2012, 02:40 PM
I don't know how others feel about this, but I've been generally more impressed with Sickels' perspective than other "experts" over the last few years. No one gets it right all the time, but Sickels seems to bring a personal perspective that is sometimes unique and usually on point. Anyone feel differently?

While it's more important to "make" this list than not make it (and therefore not get too caught up over the actual rankings, it is interesting that he seems to put Corcino and Stephenson together, before a big gap, and then Cingrani and Lotzkar. Many on this board would likely switch Stephenson and Cingrani in their respective groupings.

Also interesting that none of the Reds made "honorable mention" implying that there is a significantly large gap between these five guys and all other Reds prospects, including guys like Rodriguez, Gregorius and Lutz. I happen to agree with that take.

Finally, it will be interesting if Travieso, and particularly Winker and Rahier with their hot starts make his future list that will include recent draftees. I would surmise that those three might fall somewhere in between the large gap between the top five and everyone else.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2012, 02:44 PM
John Sickels came out with his Top 120 without draft picks included (count on about 15 or so draft picks to be inside the Top 120 at years end as well as maybe an international guy or two). Here is the link for the entire list:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update

Here are the Reds, with previous ranking in ( )

15) Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds (57)
61) Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (120)
63) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (HM)
94) Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (NR)
114) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (NR)

Not a bad showing for our guys.

True, but the Cards have 4 in the top 35. That's a much bigger advantage than the Reds have.

Benihana
07-02-2012, 02:47 PM
Other interesting names:

Wheeler at 13 (what a return for the Mets on a rental)
Rizzo at 22 (generally comp'd to Alonso, but clearly SD preferred Alonso)
Grandal at 23
Norris at 71

dougdirt
07-02-2012, 02:47 PM
True, but the Cards have 4 in the top 35. That's a much bigger advantage than the Reds have.

Sure, but our MLB roster is full of just graduated guys too. Theirs isn't.

Benihana
07-02-2012, 02:48 PM
True, but the Cards have 4 in the top 35. That's a much bigger advantage than the Reds have.

I would argue that 4 in the top 35 isn't all that different than 3 in the top 65.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2012, 02:56 PM
I would argue that 4 in the top 35 isn't all that different than 3 in the top 65.

Outside of Corcino, it's hard to get really exited about the Reds prospects in the top 120 right now. Hamilton is a fast guy with no power and still a questionable bat, Stephenson looks to be great some day, but we easily are 4-5 years away seeing him at The Show. I'm glad to have him, but it's going to be a long time before he contributes. Lotzkar is a throw away from an injury. Cingrani has me excited some, but there seems to be disagreements everywhere about his ceiling.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2012, 02:59 PM
Sure, but our MLB roster is full of just graduated guys too. Theirs isn't.

The Cardinals have a better pythag then the Reds right now with their current roster (and that's with all of the injuries). This means that the Cards have the option of bringing up these highly touted prospects or trading some of them for some real talent. Not to mention, the Cards have more payroll room than the Reds.

I think it would be difficult to argue that the Reds are in a better position than the Cards right now.

Benihana
07-02-2012, 02:59 PM
Outside of Corcino, it's hard to get really exited about the Reds prospects in the top 120 right now. Hamilton is a fast guy with no power and still a questionable bat, Stephenson looks to be great some day, but we easily are 4-5 years away seeing him at The Show. I'm glad to have him, but it's going to be a long time before he contributes. Lotzkar is a throw away from an injury. Cingrani has me excited some, but there seems to be disagreements everywhere about his ceiling.

Perhaps. But I would argue the Reds have the fewest holes to plug on their big league roster for the next 3-5 years out of almost all the clubs:

LF, possibly 3B, possibly CF, and maybe one SP spot. That's pretty much it, at least as of right now. How many other clubs are set at least 8 and as many as 10 positions for the next 3-5 years?

Given where we're at as an organization, I'm happy that outside of the 3 AA pitchers, most of our prospects are in Rookie League, 4-6 years away from contributing to the big club.

fearofpopvol1
07-02-2012, 03:03 PM
Perhaps. But I would argue the Reds have the fewest holes to plug on their big league roster for the next 3-5 years out of almost all the clubs:

LF, possibly 3B, possibly CF, and maybe one SP spot. That's pretty much it, at least as of right now. How many other clubs are set at least 8 and as many as 10 positions for the next 3-5 years?

Don't get me wrong, that's a very valid point. I do fear though that the Reds don't have a lot of payroll room to add the proper help for these other positions.

Also, I do like the Reds' recent drafts and I'm excited for the future with the prospects, but the vast vast majority of these guys are still question marks and a long way off from the Show. I just feel like the Cardinals have more impact prospects right now than the Reds and are in a better overall position when you consider payroll.

bubbachunk
07-02-2012, 03:46 PM
Outside of Corcino, it's hard to get really exited about the Reds prospects in the top 120 right now. Hamilton is a fast guy with no power and still a questionable bat, Stephenson looks to be great some day, but we easily are 4-5 years away seeing him at The Show. I'm glad to have him, but it's going to be a long time before he contributes. Lotzkar is a throw away from an injury. Cingrani has me excited some, but there seems to be disagreements everywhere about his ceiling.

Every pitching prospect is one throw away from an injury :lol:

Really though, reports of improved mechanics from him make him less scary and volatile prospect wise.

Billy Hamilton's Legs
07-02-2012, 05:14 PM
What scares me is how many Cardinals prospects made this list. It's truly a ridiculous number. And the Pirates too.

I second this.

RedlegJake
07-02-2012, 05:27 PM
Fear of Pirates and Cards prospects making a list like this is a bit silly, imo. There are going to be a bunch of prospects not even listed who make the majors and a lot of players on this list who don't. The Reds system is deep - mostly at the lower levels where I think it is really really deep. Almost to the point of where do we find enough places to play people? And the Reds have a slew of young guys - enough to weather a couple of years with limited graduations while the system grows into the upper levels. I'd be willing to bet anything the Reds system is the equal or better than either the Cards or the Pirates 2 years from now and the major league team will be just as competitive or better, too. I love the position the Reds are in and the way the system lines up especially the pitching - a whole rotation is growing in the minors with enough depth to withstand the normal fallout. I also like the upside or ML projectability of a number of players who did not make this list like HRod and Lutz, Soto (despite his poor year so far he still has a ton of power and will make a good trade chip) and a number of relievers.

The Cards always compete well - so what? It just means the Reds have to do as good a job in all aspects. I'm not afraid of either team. Bring them on.

TOBTTReds
07-02-2012, 06:07 PM
All our players on this list moved in the right direction. That's more important to me.

Scrap Irony
07-02-2012, 07:43 PM
I think Cingrani is underrated, as Sickels hasn't seen him play. So he relying on substandard and out-of-date scouting reports. As Cingrani continues to pitch well in AA, he will rise on the list. (As he should.)

I also think Henry Rodriguez is underrated. He's a .300/.350/.425 switch hitter that can play 3B. (That would rank in the top six or seven in all of baseball and fourth in the National League, btw.) He's young for AA and was dominating the league before injury.

I also think Hamilton is overrated at 15, considering the questions about his bat and glove. He has to hit at a .300-ish rate, or he's Dee Gordon, part II. I'd rank him in the top 25 because of his speed, his hit tool, his improving BB and shrinking K rates, and his willingness and history of improvement/ hard work. But until he proves it in AA, that's as far as I would go.

Lutz is a sleeper who could really surprise. I think his power will play just about anywhere and his hit tool is great to see.

As far as young prospects, I suppose we'll see. I like Rahier, Winker, Stephenson, and company, but it's far too early to predict how they might play as they age. Cincinnati does have a group of kids who look to be interesting to follow, at least.

Benihana
07-02-2012, 08:38 PM
Sickels re: Henry Rodriguez:


Henry Rodriguez, Reds
When he is back healthy what do you think his big league ceiling is? And do you see him as more or a 2B, 3B, or UT?

He was off to a great start again this yea before getting hurt and has done nothing but hit as a pro and has good gap power it seems

by mattp31 on Jul 2, 2012 11:22 AM EDT via mobile reply

hrod
Henry is a very interesting player….he always hits well, but scouts don’t seem to like his glove much and are always coming up with excuses to downgrade him. If rehab goes well and he keeps hitting, he would be a candidate in August.

by John Sickels on Jul 2, 2012 7:53 PM EDT up reply

and re: Stephenson


Robert Stephenson
Does he deserve to be mentioned with the top 2011 arms, or is his ceiling a notch or two lower?

by daveh33 on Jul 2, 2012 10:59 AM EDT reply

Stephenson
I am very impressed with Stephenson and consider him one of the top pitchers from the 2011 draft, in terms of longterm potential anyway. Let’s see how he does in shortseason ball but he could easily move up the August list

by John Sickels on Jul 2, 2012 7:30 PM EDT up reply

Benihana
07-02-2012, 08:38 PM
Sickels re: Henry Rodriguez:


Henry Rodriguez, Reds
When he is back healthy what do you think his big league ceiling is? And do you see him as more or a 2B, 3B, or UT?

He was off to a great start again this yea before getting hurt and has done nothing but hit as a pro and has good gap power it seems

by mattp31 on Jul 2, 2012 11:22 AM EDT via mobile reply

hrod
Henry is a very interesting player….he always hits well, but scouts don’t seem to like his glove much and are always coming up with excuses to downgrade him. If rehab goes well and he keeps hitting, he would be a candidate in August.

by John Sickels on Jul 2, 2012 7:53 PM EDT up reply

and re: Stephenson


Robert Stephenson
Does he deserve to be mentioned with the top 2011 arms, or is his ceiling a notch or two lower?

by daveh33 on Jul 2, 2012 10:59 AM EDT reply

Stephenson
I am very impressed with Stephenson and consider him one of the top pitchers from the 2011 draft, in terms of longterm potential anyway. Let’s see how he does in shortseason ball but he could easily move up the August list

by John Sickels on Jul 2, 2012 7:30 PM EDT up reply

M2
07-02-2012, 10:50 PM
Hamilton gets some helium because he plays SS. If he were an OF I have no doubt his ranking would be lower.

These lists tend to be fluid. I'd like to it be broken up by level of play (a list for AAA-AA, another for A ball, another for short-season and rookie ball). For instance, if Gerrit Cole fails to dominate in AA then he's going to drop. It doesn't really mean he's less of a prospect, just that he's taking time to adjust. Yet these big lists tend to gravitate toward the flavor of the day.

Nice thing about the Reds is how quickly the system is restocking after the Latos deal. To me, that's a mark of a strong system.

The DARK
07-02-2012, 11:08 PM
Cingrani jumps up a bunch of notches if Tom Brown can keep polishing his offspeed pitches. Power lefties with good command don't generally have much trouble in the lower minors, but can get found out in a starting role the higher they go without good secondary pitches. Judging by his last couple starts, he hasn't had much trouble adjusting.

REDblooded
07-02-2012, 11:19 PM
Ruh-roh. Wonder if he has some pain somewhere. I saw him against Dayton when he was in Low A, and the guy was practically unhittable.

Homer Bailey unhittable?

dougdirt
07-02-2012, 11:39 PM
Cingrani jumps up a bunch of notches if Tom Brown can keep polishing his offspeed pitches. Power lefties with good command don't generally have much trouble in the lower minors, but can get found out in a starting role the higher they go without good secondary pitches. Judging by his last couple starts, he hasn't had much trouble adjusting.

I am looking forward to watching his start from tonight at some point this week. The numbers were good, but I don't care much about those if they were done mostly with the #1. I want to see the #2 and #3.

Vottomatic
07-03-2012, 04:41 PM
Rodriguez just doesn't have a lot of upside. He is probably close to being a finished product. He isn't going to find his power he has been missing like some of those guys have a chance to. He isn't going to be an outstanding defender (likely) like some of those guys might be.

Geez. I called Latos a finished product on the ORG and got lambasted for it and you're saying a minor leaguer is a finished product??? Hmmmm. :confused:

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 05:28 PM
Geez. I called Latos a finished product on the ORG and got lambasted for it and you're saying a minor leaguer is a finished product??? Hmmmm. :confused:

Where is Rodriguez going to significantly improve his game? His power isn't likely going to get better. He is a small guy who has absolute pull only power. He already has very high contact rates, so cutting down the strikeouts probably won't happen much. He doesn't have outstanding defensive tools that are in need of refinement, so he probably isn't going to all of a sudden turn into an outstanding defender (like say a Billy Hamilton who could because of his toolset but raw skillset at this point).

With Latos, he is probably a close to finished product as well. He really isn't much different today than he was a year or even 2 years ago from a skillset standpoint. His ERA is different, but his skillset isn't.

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 05:31 PM
More from Sickels:


Lutz has real power but he also has real contact issues….big question if his batting average and OBP will holdup at higher levels.

Sulbaran was never reeally off the radar. Not a top 150 guy, but he’s got talent and someo command refinements would take him a long way.

When asked about where Hamilton may wind up defensively, he said this

I think he ends up at 2B or CF, although he’s had enough improvement at SS to stick there awhile longer.