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View Full Version : Hamilton hits 100



REDblooded
07-03-2012, 01:15 AM
Wow... Just wow...

Superdude
07-03-2012, 01:18 AM
Truly an absurd accomplishment at this point in the year.

Blitz Dorsey
07-03-2012, 01:21 AM
Incredible. I love it.

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 01:31 AM
There is an outside chance that Theo Bowe could make a run at 100 this season as well. Griffey lets those guys run at every chance they get.

Superdude
07-03-2012, 01:40 AM
There is an outside chance that Theo Bowe could make a run at 100 this season as well. Griffey lets those guys run at every chance they get.

Insane that could approach 100 and be dwarfed by Hamilton. I still can't even fathom this. It's July 3rd!

REDblooded
07-03-2012, 01:43 AM
Insane that could approach 100 and be dwarfed by Hamilton. I still can't even fathom this. It's July 3rd!


Still the 2nd in Bakersfield... OMGZ

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 01:46 AM
Still the 2nd in Bakersfield... OMGZ

You just blew my mind! Lol

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 01:47 AM
Insane that could approach 100 and be dwarfed by Hamilton.

As of a few days ago Theo Bowe was 5th in all of minor league baseball with 39 steals. Hamilton had 90 something.

texasdave
07-03-2012, 02:11 AM
100? He seems a lot younger. That one is for Camisa. :laugh:

powersackers
07-03-2012, 02:30 AM
Congrats. Now 7 day dl Cozart so he can get well and call up Billy for game two in LA.

klw
07-03-2012, 09:27 AM
I thought Hamilton is hitting .330.

http://instantrimshot.com/classic/?sound=rimshot

rgslone
07-03-2012, 03:28 PM
So how much of the minor league season is remaining? I'm assuming that it's more than 1/2 way through. Otherwise, Hamilton's already incredible SB totals become absolutely cartoonish (as in, not possible in the real world).

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 03:29 PM
The Blaze had 58 games left this season.

rgslone
07-03-2012, 05:08 PM
The Blaze had 58 games left this season.

Thanks Doug. I went to the Blaze web site and saw that in 78 games Hamiliton has 100 SB. That would be an average of roughly 1.28 steals per game. If he plays in the remaining 58 games, that projects to 74 more steals. So he could potentially have 174 SB by the end of the season. I also read somewhere that Coleman (ex-Cardinal) has the minor league record at 140 something. So, Hamilton could potentially blow away the minor league record. Wow!

klw
07-03-2012, 05:13 PM
Thanks Doug. I went to the Blaze web site and saw that in 78 games Hamiliton has 100 SB. That would be an average of roughly 1.28 steals per game. If he plays in the remaining 58 games, that projects to 74 more steals. So he could potentially have 174 SB by the end of the season. I also read somewhere that Coleman (ex-Cardinal) has the minor league record at 140 something. So, Hamilton could potentially blow away the minor league record. Wow!

Record is 145.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120703&content_id=34365342&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb


Hamilton jokingly told MiLB.com in May that his goal is to double last year's mark of 103. But next up is Nixon's Cal League record and just beyond that is Vince Coleman's Minor League best of 145, also set in 1983, in the South Atlantic League. The Mississippi native seemed confident that he could potentially reach both numbers before season's end.

"I mean, it's possible," he said. "I think 144 is possible, but I'm not saying I'm going to go out and get 144. I knew [103] would be tough to double, but I didn't set any goals. I just want to get better, come work on my jump and whatever happens, happens."

Vottomatic
07-03-2012, 05:35 PM
Move this kid to CF pronto! Well, atleast after he breaks the record.

rgslone
07-03-2012, 05:54 PM
If Hamilton continues along his apparent path of improvement in contact rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and adds a little gap power - which I don't think is a huge jump - just how good of a lead-off hitter would this guy project to be? To answer my own question - he would be the quintessential stud lead-off hitter is what he would be. Moreover, guys that post on here that are familar with Hamilton's reputation have said that he's known as a really hard worker; and while his ability to stick at SS has been questioned, no one has suggested that he can't be a good defensive player somewhere. So, what else could you realistically ask for in a prospect to hit lead-off? He may never make it to "the show", but there is no way that there is a prospect to hit lead-off in the minors with more promise and upside than Hamilton.

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 06:25 PM
If Hamilton continues along his apparent path of improvement in contact rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and adds a little gap power - which I don't think is a huge jump - just how good of a lead-off hitter would this guy project to be? To answer my own question - he would be the quintessential stud lead-off hitter is what he would be. Moreover, guys that post on here that are familar with Hamilton's reputation have said that he's known as a really hard worker; and while his ability to stick at SS has been questioned, no one has suggested that he can't be a good defensive player somewhere. So, what else could you realistically ask for in a prospect to hit lead-off? He may never make it to "the show", but there is no way that there is a prospect to hit lead-off in the minors with more promise and upside than Hamilton.

The question is though, and it probably won't be answered until he gets to the Majors, is will he still be able to draw walks against pitchers who know he doesn't have power? Very few guys can. If he can become one of those guys, envision Brett Gardner over the last few seasons with maybe a tad more power and a little bit more steals.

fearofpopvol1
07-03-2012, 07:51 PM
I think Hamilton's absolute ceiling is Juan Pierre (though he's likely to K more). And I'm really not sure he'll even get to Pierre status. Hoping I'm wrong.

dougdirt
07-03-2012, 08:17 PM
I think Hamilton's absolute ceiling is Juan Pierre (though he's likely to K more). And I'm really not sure he'll even get to Pierre status. Hoping I'm wrong.

Billy Hamilton might have 20 power. Technically, so does Juan Pierre..... but Hamilton has more power than Pierre does. Pierre of course never strikes out, where as Hamilton strikes out about 250% as often right now.

Sabo Fan
07-04-2012, 12:09 AM
I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.

rgslone
07-04-2012, 01:32 AM
If Hamilton "only" has a career similar to Juan Pierre or Vince Coleman, what's wrong with that? To my recollection, Juan Pierre and Vince Coleman were both pretty good lead-off hitters who played a long time. Still, to me Hamilton has potential advantages over both. Pierre is not the base stealing threat that Hamilton is. Hamilton, however, does strike out more than Pierre, and I doubt he could ever match Pierre's contact rate. On the other hand, Pierre doesn't seem to walk much (although his strikeout-to-walk ratio is good), while Hamilton does alright in this regard. Hamilton also makes better contact and hits for a better average than Coleman. All of this, of course, is based upon a comparison of minor league stats to major league stats - but that's all there is to work with at this point. Also, I think Hamilton projects much better defensively than Pierre (e.g., no arm or particular fielding prowess). In short, I think he can be a better all-around player than Pierre or Coleman - but even if he's just a similar player to either of those guys, that's pretty good.

RedlegJake
07-04-2012, 05:07 AM
I think his ceiling is Rock Raines without the home run power but with some of the gap power. Speed and stealing threat at a high rate and he still needs to learn how to read pitchers and he is learning from what I've read. He'll strikeout but I also think he'll hit hard enough to worry pitchers about doubles or triples. Anything in the gaps is a possible extra base hit that might be a long single for other players. I think they will be careful enough to walk him especially when he is batting without anyone on ahead of him. That's when he'll be most dangerous to them and they'll be most careful of him. He'll be a bizarre dilemma - walk him and he'll run on you - pitch him too easy and he might turn a blooper into a double or something like that. Anything on the ground will be a race every time. It all depends on whether he continues to make contact and be selective. If better pitchers throw strikes he simply has to be able to hit them instead of walking and let his speed make something happen. I'll accept a higher strikeout rate than Pierre or Coleman if Billy slashes a few in the gaps and keeps a decent contact rate at the same time. He'll never have Rock's home runs but I'll take the doubles triples and stolen bases as a substitute for power if he keeps his OBP above .350 in any combo of walks and hits. I should add that I'm really dubious that Billy can do this. I'm on board woth trading him if the right deal came along.

fearofpopvol1
07-04-2012, 05:29 AM
If Hamilton "only" has a career similar to Juan Pierre or Vince Coleman, what's wrong with that? To my recollection, Juan Pierre and Vince Coleman were both pretty good lead-off hitters who played a long time. Still, to me Hamilton has potential advantages over both. Pierre is not the base stealing threat that Hamilton is. Hamilton, however, does strike out more than Pierre, and I doubt he could ever match Pierre's contact rate. On the other hand, Pierre doesn't seem to walk much (although his strikeout-to-walk ratio is good), while Hamilton does alright in this regard. Hamilton also makes better contact and hits for a better average than Coleman. All of this, of course, is based upon a comparison of minor league stats to major league stats - but that's all there is to work with at this point. Also, I think Hamilton projects much better defensively than Pierre (e.g., no arm or particular fielding prowess). In short, I think he can be a better all-around player than Pierre or Coleman - but even if he's just a similar player to either of those guys, that's pretty good.

A Pierre career would be fine, but I happen to think that is his absolute ceiling as a hitter. And to be honest, I'm skeptical he'll be as good. Pierre rarely struck out, but he hit for a high average. Hamilton strikes out more and will likely hit less with a tad more power. Hamilton may be able to be a better defender than Pierre would be. In the end, his defensive abilities may make him more even with Pierre IF he can hit fairly well. It's still a question mark at the advance levels.

Steve4192
07-04-2012, 08:09 AM
He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive.

While I agree that is possible, it certainly hasn't been the case thus far. Hamilton has handled the jump from short season rookie ball to low A to high A with aplomb. Will the jump to AA be the one that finally gets him? Perhaps ..... but perhaps not.

mth123
07-04-2012, 09:28 AM
I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.

+1.

For the record, I don't even think Vince Coleman was all that great. I think base stealers can be very exciting, but the great ones are almost aways great because they get on base and hit with some pop. Jose Reyes? Ricky Henderson? Tim Raines? Joe Morgan? Lou Brock? Ty Cobb? George Sisler? Sure, give me guys like that all day. Otis Nixon? Vince Coleman? Maury Wills? Gary Pettis? Willy Taveras? Curtis Goodwin? Tom Goodwin? I'd focus on finding a decent OPS instead.

There are some speed guys who were pretty good for a few years in their 20s. Guys like Willie Wilson come to mind and that would be the very top of the range for a guy like Hamilton IMO. Wilson was basically an out machine at the top of the order after age 30 though. In his best years a .320ish batting average was what drove his ability to get on base. The likelihood of being a .310+ hitter in the majors is pretty low. Hamilton just doesn't have the power to join, the Morgan, Brock, Cobb group, so he'll need a pretty high batting average to put up some of those Willie Wilson type years. Otherwise, he slides into that Otis Nixon group (Nixon's top OPS+ in his career was 94) if he doesn't flame out in the massive amount of ground to cover between A+ and the big leagues. I'd cash him in ASAP for a high return if one is available and push the major league team to the next level.

mth123
07-04-2012, 09:39 AM
If Hamilton "only" has a career similar to Juan Pierre or Vince Coleman, what's wrong with that? To my recollection, Juan Pierre and Vince Coleman were both pretty good lead-off hitters who played a long time. Still, to me Hamilton has potential advantages over both. Pierre is not the base stealing threat that Hamilton is. Hamilton, however, does strike out more than Pierre, and I doubt he could ever match Pierre's contact rate. On the other hand, Pierre doesn't seem to walk much (although his strikeout-to-walk ratio is good), while Hamilton does alright in this regard. Hamilton also makes better contact and hits for a better average than Coleman. All of this, of course, is based upon a comparison of minor league stats to major league stats - but that's all there is to work with at this point. Also, I think Hamilton projects much better defensively than Pierre (e.g., no arm or particular fielding prowess). In short, I think he can be a better all-around player than Pierre or Coleman - but even if he's just a similar player to either of those guys, that's pretty good.

There isn't anything wrong with it (Pierre was a far better player than Coleman IMO), but it's not a centerpiece who you build a team around and its certainly not untouchable. If some team is salivating over those 100 steals by July 2, I wouldn't hesitate to parlay Hamilton into something of more immediate impact or whose skillset is more based on his bat and glove (or his ability to get hitters out) than on his legs.

rgslone
07-04-2012, 11:57 AM
There isn't anything wrong with it (Pierre was a far better player than Coleman IMO), but it's not a centerpiece who you build a team around and its certainly not untouchable. If some team is salivating over those 100 steals by July 2, I wouldn't hesitate to parlay Hamilton into something of more immediate impact or whose skillset is more based on his bat and glove (or his ability to get hitters out) than on his legs.

I don't disagree. But I would go even further and say, especially with a young nucleus at the MLB level, that no "prospect" should be untouchable. I suspect that most of us who follow the Reds minor league prospects often get too attached and overvalue our better prospects. For example, the Reds really need a lead-off hitter right now (maybe not as much as a 4th hole hitter, but that's another discussion) so we understandably salivate about the possibility of Hamilton and 140 SB (i.e., 140 times Hamilton is on 2nd for Votto to drive in). But I would package any prospect the Reds have for the right hitter.

kaldaniels
07-04-2012, 02:45 PM
What kind of comp (gulp) is Deion Sanders to Billy?

TOBTTReds
07-04-2012, 02:56 PM
I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.

The best part right now is that even if Hamilton only had 30 SB's, he'd still be a prospect because he is hitting and getting on base and has potential at CF and SS. Take SB out of the subject and he's still a prospect. Include them, and he is a top tier prospect.

TOBTTReds
07-04-2012, 03:03 PM
I may be the only one who feels this way (and apologize in advance for being a buzzkill), but as entertaining as Hamilton is to follow, he's a side show, a circus act. He's obviously very gifted physically and can run like the wind but as he moves up into the upper levels of the minors his act will get less and less impressive. Pitchers will be better at holding him close and catchers will be better equipped to gun him down. The Reds would do well to cash him in at the deadline or this offseason as I don't expect his value to ever be higher. Speed is fleeting and he's one hamstring injury away from mediocrity. Yeah, he could be Vince Coleman, but the odds say he's more Joey Gathright.

The best part right now is that even if Hamilton onlu had 30 SB's, he'd still be a prospect because he is hitting and getting on base and has potential at CF and SS. Take SB out of the subject and he's still a prospect. Include them, and he is a top tier prospect.

Tom Servo
07-04-2012, 03:21 PM
Can we nip in the bud any idea that he should be brought up this year? Dude is in high-A. There's no reason to rush him up the majors.

Vottomatic
07-04-2012, 03:35 PM
1. I think management is going to keep Billy at Bakersfield so he can break the record. It will bring that much more notoriety if he does it (which I'm sure he will).

2. I don't want him moved up to double A until next season. And I'm hoping they move him to CF. But I keep wondering if they're keeping him at SS to increase his trade value. Shortstops are at a higher premium than CFers. And CFers who lack power aren't in much need either.

3. I'd love to see Billy continue to get better and better and be a solid major league leadoff man for the Reds.

4. But........if some team would overpay to get him right now, I'd trade him in a heartbeat.

Superdude
07-04-2012, 04:14 PM
don't want him moved up to double A until next season. And I'm hoping they move him to CF. But I keep wondering if they're keeping him at SS to increase his trade value. Shortstops are at a higher premium than CFers. And CFers who lack power aren't in much need either.

Then why move him off shortstop? Even if he doesn't run into any obstacles (pun intended), he hits the big time in 2014 at the earliest IMO. I don't see any need to shoehorn him onto the major league roster at this point.

Blitz Dorsey
07-05-2012, 03:37 AM
If he were a great athlete, I'm confident he would have reached 200 by now. (Too soon?)

TheNext44
07-05-2012, 05:36 AM
Here in LA, and after the game I got to go down to the Reds clubhouse (friends with a sportswriter). There we ran into Eric Davis, who spends a lot of time in Bakersfield. My friend asked when Hamilton's time will come. Davis said, "His time will come when his time comes." When my friend then asked him if that meant this year, Davis become very demonstrative and said absolutely not, that you do not bring him up to the majors until he is ready for the majors, not even just to do soma few things.

Now Eric Davis is not Walt Jocketty, but just thought I'd share what I heard.

Steve4192
07-05-2012, 08:01 AM
Here in LA, and after the game I got to go down to the Reds clubhouse (friends with a sportswriter). There we ran into Eric Davis, who spends a lot of time in Bakersfield. My friend asked when Hamilton's time will come. Davis said, "His time will come when his time comes." When my friend then asked him if that meant this year, Davis become very demonstrative and said absolutely not, that you do not bring him up to the majors until he is ready for the majors, not even just to do soma few things.

Now Eric Davis is not Walt Jocketty, but just thought I'd share what I heard.

Eric the Red speaks from experience.

He really struggled making the adjustment to the majors and was sent back to the minors twice before finally sticking in the big leagues. He knows that putting up pretty numbers in the bush leagues doesn't always mean a guy is ready for the bigs.

Vottomatic
07-05-2012, 05:32 PM
Then why move him off shortstop? Even if he doesn't run into any obstacles (pun intended), he hits the big time in 2014 at the earliest IMO. I don't see any need to shoehorn him onto the major league roster at this point.

Because it doesn't sound, from all reports, that he's a very good defensive shortstop. And with all that speed, if he's going to be moved to CF, now is the time to do it, or atleast next season.

I don't know where you got the idea I want to rush him to the majors.

mdccclxix
07-05-2012, 07:05 PM
1. I think management is going to keep Billy at Bakersfield so he can break the record. It will bring that much more notoriety if he does it (which I'm sure he will).

2. I don't want him moved up to double A until next season. And I'm hoping they move him to CF. But I keep wondering if they're keeping him at SS to increase his trade value. Shortstops are at a higher premium than CFers. And CFers who lack power aren't in much need either.

3. I'd love to see Billy continue to get better and better and be a solid major league leadoff man for the Reds.

4. But........if some team would overpay to get him right now, I'd trade him in a heartbeat.

Bavasi said recently he's moving up to AA sometime this year, perhaps soon.

RedlegJake
07-05-2012, 07:13 PM
I think he ends up in CF but that is not a hard transition for most infielders. Heck, Dale Murphy did it as a catcher! Center is also the easiest outfield spot to play if you have the legs for it (from my own experience as a lefty who always ended up in the OF or at 1st). Far easier than the corners where the angles are much harder to read and play. And Billy definitely has the legs for it.

Superdude
07-05-2012, 08:15 PM
Because it doesn't sound, from all reports, that he's a very good defensive shortstop. And with all that speed, if he's going to be moved to CF, now is the time to do it, or atleast next season.

I don't know where you got the idea I want to rush him to the majors.

I thought maybe you wanted him in center eventually because of the relative void of production out there at the big club. Obviously not calling him up now.

From what I've gathered, he's inconsistent at short, but has some incredible potential there. I'd rather he stay at short for at least another year just because I think he's gonna need all the defensive value he can get. I'll take his light stick at shortstop; not so sure about center.

Steve4192
07-05-2012, 09:49 PM
Because it doesn't sound, from all reports, that he's a very good defensive shortstop.

He's only 21 years old.

Lots of solid major league SS were awful defensively at that age. As long as he continues to improve his defense, which by all accounts he is still doing, he should be left at the more valuable defensive position.

M2
07-05-2012, 10:49 PM
This.


From what I've gathered, he's inconsistent at short, but has some incredible potential there. I'd rather he stay at short for at least another year just because I think he's gonna need all the defensive value he can get. I'll take his light stick at shortstop; not so sure about center.

And this.


He's only 21 years old.

Lots of solid major league SS were awful defensively at that age. As long as he continues to improve his defense, which by all accounts he is still doing, he should be left at the more valuable defensive position.

As for me, I'm as geeked about Billy Hamilton as I have been about any prospect ever.

redsfandan
07-06-2012, 01:41 AM
What kind of comp (gulp) is Deion Sanders to Billy?

Hmilton is probably the better hitter but they have similar speed. As far as who is the better baserunner, though, I'd bet on Deion.

19braves77
07-06-2012, 07:21 AM
Lot of whispering going around the stadium tonight that Hamilton will be P-Cola bound after the Futures game with Didi heading off to AAA.

camisadelgolf
07-06-2012, 08:24 AM
Hopefully that also means a promotion for Janish (or anyone else). I only say that because I'm hoping it results in the release of Wilson Valdez. How he has a job in MLB is beyond me.