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Kc61
07-04-2012, 12:42 PM
At approximate halfway mark, Reds are tied for first in Central with Pirates at 44-36 after a 5-5 stretch of ten games. Cards 2.5 back. Reds have been 5-5 four times in these reports so far (reports 2, 4, 6, and now 8). Reds 23-16 at home and 21-20 on the road. Reds with +37 run differential, Cards at +62, Pirates at +16. ESPN says Reds expected won-loss record would be 45-35. Reds are 13-15 in one run games, Bucs 19-14.

Stubbs returned to duty from DL, Harris sent down, Votto with knee injury has returned to action, Rolen injured but still on roster. Votto starter in All Star Game, Chapman and Bruce made team, Cueto and Phillips did not (unless last minute call).

Offense - Reds team OPS is .731, fifth best in NL. SLG is .415, fifth best. OBP is .315, tenth best. BA is .249, 10th best in NL. In 2011 at the All Star Break, Reds were .735 OPS, fourth best in NL; .404 SLG (fourth best); .330 OBP (3rd best); .260 BA (fourth best).

Reds OPS declined from .740 to .731 this stretch and OPS against left hand pitching declined from .816 down to .780, third in the NL. OPS against RH pitching is .713, tenth best in the NL.

In winning games, Reds have .837 OPS, sixth in NL. In losing games, Reds have .597 OPS, twelfth in NL. When ahead in the game, Reds have .731 OPS, ninth in NL. When behind in the game, Reds have .711 OPS, fifth in NL. When tied in the game, Reds have .753 OPS, sixth in NL. In late/close situations (MLB.com), Reds OPS of .800 leads the NL. Men in scoring position Reds .735 OPS sixth in NL; men in scoring position two outs, Reds twelfth in NL at .673.

Reds with .316 wOBA, tied for 6th-8th in league. wRC+ is 94, tied for eighth-ninth. BABIP is .292, twelfth in NL. Reds are third in NL in fly ball rate at 36.1%. Reds are next to last in ground ball rate (42.9%), eighth in line drive rate (21%).

Votto hitting .352 BA with 1.101 OPS. Mike Leake with .357 BA, two homers, and .964 OPS in 28 at bats. Frazier at .894, Bruce at .850, Ludwick at .797, Phillips at .767. CFers Stubbs and Heisey, respectively, at .648 and .662 OPS, also respectively with .293 and .304 OBP in combined 481 plate appearances. Against RHP some OPS numbers: Cairo .340; Valdez .447; Rolen .558; Stubbs .608; Mes .612; Hanigan .649; Heisey .670; Cozart .682.

Cozart overall at .250 BA and .403 SLG, with .298 OBP and even .700 OPS. Overall OPS in small sample of last seven days led by (excluding pitchers) Ludwick and Frazier both over 1.000.

Pitching - Reds with 3.46 team ERA fourth best in NL and improved from 3.56 last time. Reds starters with great stretch improved from 4.00 ERA to 3.79, fifth place in NL. Reds pen not as good, went from 2.62 ERA to 2.70, still tied for first in NL with Pittsburgh. Reds with 209 walks allowed, tied for least in NL. Reds BAA is .248, seventh best in NL, better than NL average .255. Reds six complete games leads the NL.

Reds in 2011 pre-ASB was at 4.17 ERA, 14th in NL, so huge improvement to current 3.46. In 2011 (year end) Reds starters were 4.47 and relievers 3.55 so big improvements in each currently, to 3.79 and 2.70.

Reds allowing a 35% fly ball rate highest in NL. Reds allowing a 43.8% ground ball rate, tied for lowest in the NL. Line drive rate of 21.2% is the fifth highest in the NL. GB/FB ratio of 1.25 is the lowest (favoring fly balls) in the NL. Reds with FIP of 3.83 which is eighth lowest in NL. Improved from 3.87 last time. xFIP is now 3.82, sixth lowest in NL.

Reds FIP usually relatively higher than ERA due (I assume) to excellent defense helping pitchers. Reds xFIP somewhat lower since it normalizes for home runs allowed (in effect, normalizing for GABP home run impact). Please correct if you interpret differently.

Mat Latos. Player of the week in the NL with two stellar complete games and combined 20 strikeouts to lead MLB. Now 7-2 with 4.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 90 Ks in 97.2 innings, 28 walks. Starter ERAs for the Reds are Cueto, 2.35, Arroyo 4.06, Leake 4.12, Bailey 4.24, and Latos. Last 30 days, Cueto with 2.06 ERA, Leake with 2.80. W-L records are Cueto 9-5, Latos 7-2, Bailey 6-6 and both Arroyo and Leake 3-5.

Chapman now 4-4 with 1.93 ERA, 66 Ks and 12 BBs in 37.1 innings. Last 30 days, Sean Marshall with 1-1 record, .84 ERA, 8 Ks and 1 BB in 12 games and 10.2 innings. Only relief WHIPs over 1.30 are Simon 1.32; Lecure 1.35; and Bray with very small sample size of 4 IP. Highest starter WHIP is 1.32 for Bailey, which is fine for a SP.

Fielding - Reds with 40 errors, least in the NL. Reds with fielding percentage of .986 best in the NL. Reds DER (MLB.com) is.703, tied for third-fourth best in NL. Defensive numbers have improved over past weeks. Reds still with only 52 double plays, next to lowest, but team gets relatively few ground balls. Stolen base percentage against Reds is .667 fifth lowest in NL. Most errors on Reds is 7 by Cozart in 301 total chances. Nobody else has more than 4 for the season.

Note: will be double checking stats later so could be some changes later today.

Kc61
07-04-2012, 05:50 PM
Note: Any changes have been made, this is done.

I cannot remember the Reds with pitching like this. With the recent hot streak by the starters, this team now has excellent pitching numbers, especially for a GABP team. Defensive stats are improved and all of us Reds watchers know the defense is pretty superb.

it is irritating that the Reds aren't way ahead in this division and the FO needs to improve the offense. The needs are obvious, they are in the outfield, they relate to adding OBP and guys who hit righties better. Do it.

P.S. Reds are 14th in NL in OBP against righties at .310.

bellhead
07-05-2012, 09:56 AM
Note: Any changes have been made, this is done.

I cannot remember the Reds with pitching like this. With the recent hot streak by the starters, this team now has excellent pitching numbers, especially for a GABP team. Defensive stats are improved and all of us Reds watchers know the defense is pretty superb.

it is irritating that the Reds aren't way ahead in this division and the FO needs to improve the offense. The needs are obvious, they are in the outfield, they relate to adding OBP and guys who hit righties better. Do it.

P.S. Reds are 14th in NL in OBP against righties at .310.

One or two players could make a huge difference...

Ludwick in Left full time, I think he has earned it, and is now producing..

The biggest issue is Stubbs in center he is 0 for a month and just doesn't get on base. Batting in front of Votto he should be killing it but has regressed since his rookie season..

Kc61
07-05-2012, 10:07 AM
One or two players could make a huge difference...

Ludwick in Left full time, I think he has earned it, and is now producing..

The biggest issue is Stubbs in center he is 0 for a month and just doesn't get on base. Batting in front of Votto he should be killing it but has regressed since his rookie season..

As I posted this morning in a different thread, one of the problem with Stubbs' performance is that he has over 900 plate appearances in the last season and a half. A player can have a bad year or two, but when he gets so many at bats he has a big impact on the offense.