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View Full Version : Justin Upton...again



Benihana
07-06-2012, 08:25 PM
Here we go again.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/dbacks-could-consider-offers-for-justin-upton.html

I'd back up the truck.

Drew Stubbs + any three guys in the system they want, ex-Billy Hamilton.

Or Chapman straight up.

cincrazy
07-06-2012, 08:52 PM
Here we go again.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/dbacks-could-consider-offers-for-justin-upton.html

I'd back up the truck.

Drew Stubbs + any three guys in the system they want, ex-Billy Hamilton.

Or Chapman straight up.

To get Justin Upton, we'd have to include Hamilton. Or Chapman and others. There's no way they trade him for anything short of an absolute haul. I'd consider making the move. But it'd be a fortune to give up, and we shouldn't expect anything less.

RedlegJake
07-06-2012, 08:55 PM
I saw on the MLB board guys talking crazy stuff. Stubbs, Cingrani, Hamilton, Lotzkar, Corcino and Frazier. No thanks. If that's the haul he can stay a Diamondback or let a rival gut their system. Upton's good but baseball takes a whole team - as we're seeing this year with the game's best hitter and a couple of it's best starters and still scuffling.

PuffyPig
07-06-2012, 09:15 PM
.831 lifetime OPS and it's not trading upwards my any means.

Sell the farm if you want, but selling everyone for someone who's expensive and not that great makes no sense.

cincrazy
07-06-2012, 09:16 PM
.831 lifetime OPS and it's not trading upwards my any means.

Sell the farm if you want, but selling everyone for someone who's expensive and not that great makes no sense.

Fair to say he's had his struggles this year, but the guy is only 24 years old, so I'm not sure it's fair to say he's trending down.

That being said, it's probably not worth gutting our system just to get a guy to put in between Votto and Bruce. Although the thought of it is nice.

M2
07-06-2012, 09:23 PM
My man-crush on Billy Hamilton would prevent me from going there, but a non-Hamilton trade for Upton would make me feel all giddy inside.

mth123
07-06-2012, 09:24 PM
Stubbs, Hamilton, Corcino and Hoover. I'm in.

Huge improvement to the big league team.

RedlegJake
07-06-2012, 09:25 PM
Stubbs, Hamilton, Corcino and Hoover. I'm in.

Huge improvement to the big league team.

I think they get a better, bigger haul from someone else.

Patrick Bateman
07-06-2012, 09:27 PM
.831 lifetime OPS and it's not trading upwards my any means.

Sell the farm if you want, but selling everyone for someone who's expensive and not that great makes no sense.

It would be like acquiring another Jay Bruce, with possibly even more upside. I haven't once heard you suggest we trade Bruce, so I would imagine you would be fine giving this guy a whirl. He was worth 6.6 WAR as a 23 year old. If you aren't willing to give up prospects for him, I'm not sure if there is much sense in anything else.

I wouldn't think twice about including Hamilton in a deal for Upton.

westofyou
07-06-2012, 09:30 PM
My man-crush on Billy Hamilton would prevent me from going there, but a non-Hamilton trade for Upton would make me feel all giddy inside.

I'm willing to adopt Billy, I'm hoping for the impact of Bipp Roberts to the power of ten

mth123
07-06-2012, 09:31 PM
I think they get a better, bigger haul from someone else.

Probably. The Reds don't have major league ready guys to deal.

M2
07-06-2012, 09:38 PM
I'm willing to adopt Billy, I'm hoping for the impact of Bipp Roberts to the power of ten

Bip Roberts was one of 5 leadoff hitters on my 1990 Strat team. He hit 3rd (behind Alex Cole and Brett Butler). Platooned him with Sabo.

I loved me some Bip Roberts.

RedlegJake
07-06-2012, 09:58 PM
It would be like acquiring another Jay Bruce, with possibly even more upside. I haven't once heard you suggest we trade Bruce, so I would imagine you would be fine giving this guy a whirl. He was worth 6.6 WAR as a 23 year old. If you aren't willing to give up prospects for him, I'm not sure if there is much sense in anything else.

I wouldn't think twice about including Hamilton in a deal for Upton.

Sure Hamilton. But Hamilton and every other prospect in A+ and AA who was bonafide? Because make no mistake that's what it would take.

Dan
07-06-2012, 10:25 PM
Billy Hamilton as a SS? I'm keeping him.

Billy Hamilton as a CF? I'm including him in a trade for Upton.

westofyou
07-06-2012, 10:27 PM
Bip Roberts was one of 5 leadoff hitters on my 1990 Strat team. He hit 3rd (behind Alex Cole and Brett Butler). Platooned him with Sabo.

I loved me some Bip Roberts.

I know, I know... Someday I'm flying out there and we are going to play with dice and you will teach me some stuff

Patrick Bateman
07-06-2012, 10:37 PM
Sure Hamilton. But Hamilton and every other prospect in A+ and AA who was bonafide? Because make no mistake that's what it would take.

Well, I think you can look at the Latos package as a bit of a map. Latos maybe not the same player value wise, but more cheap years included.

Hamilton likely has more trade value than anyone in the Padres deal. So assuming he's worth more than Grandal, you're maybe looking at adding in an Alonso and Boxberger.... I don't think we would havew to go bat crazy beyond an inclusion of Hamilton.

757690
07-06-2012, 10:38 PM
I think they get a better, bigger haul from someone else.

I doubt it. He's slumping this year, and is about to get really expensive.

757690
07-06-2012, 10:40 PM
Well, I think you can look at the Latos package as a bit of a map. Latos maybe not the same player value wise, but more cheap years included.

Hamilton likely has more trade value than anyone in the Padres deal. So assuming he's worth more than Grandal, you're maybe looking at adding in an Alonso and Boxberger.... I don't think we would havew to go bat crazy beyond an inclusion of Hamilton.

Looks about right. Hamilton plus two B prospects.

Benihana
07-06-2012, 11:39 PM
I said Stubbs + 3 prospects not named Hamilton.

To clarify, I would trade Hamilton for Upton, just not + 2 other top prospects (and Stubbs).

Apparently they want a 3B. I'd happily offer them H-Rodriguez (or Vidal or Rosa if they prefer), Hamilton, and another prospect outside the top 10. I'd prefer to include Stubbs and one of the Pensacola pitchers to Hamilton, but apparently Arizona is itching for some position player prospects, and it will likely cost us Hamilton if we want to play.

Upton is signed through 2015, which is about the time when (if) guys like Winker, Gelalich, Waldrop and/or Yorman Rodriguez should be ready.

Kc61
07-06-2012, 11:41 PM
I still doubt the Reds will trade Hamilton. For anybody. I think they want this kid with the Reds as a base stealer and a drawing card.

RedlegJake
07-06-2012, 11:46 PM
I said Stubbs + 3 prospects not named Hamilton.

To clarify, I would trade Hamilton for Upton, just not + 2 other top prospects (and Stubbs).

Apparently they want a 3B. I'd happily offer them H-Rodriguez (or Vidal or Rosa if they prefer), Hamilton, and another prospect outside the top 10. I'd prefer to include Stubbs and one of the Pensacola pitchers to Hamilton, but apparently Arizona is itching for some position player prospects, and it will likely cost us Hamilton if we want to play.

Upton is signed through 2015, which is about the time when (if) guys like Winker, Gelalich, Waldrop and/or Yorman Rodriguez should be ready.

If you read the article again they are looking for a third baseman if they KEEP Upton and improve their record between now and then. Any package of prospects if they lose and get worse and decide to deal him. So it wouldn't take a third baseman - they want one specifically if they are IN the race.

I'd love to have Upton - just not at a crazy, crazy price.

Benihana
07-06-2012, 11:49 PM
If you read the article again they are looking for a third baseman if they KEEP Upton and improve their record between now and then. Any package of prospects if they lose and get worse and decode to deal him. So it woudn;t take a third baseman.

But they have pitching prospects- lots of em. They have their catcher entrenched for a while. They need infield and outfield prospects more than anything. Hamilton, H-Rod, and an B-level IF or OF makes a lot of sense. I'm thinking someone like LaMarre (if they see Hamilton as a SS) or Gregorius (if they see Hamilton as a CF).

I'd offer three packages, in the following order of my preference for dealing them:

PACKAGE A
Drew Stubbs
Any 3 prospects not named Hamilton

PACKAGE B
Aroldis Chapman

PACKAGE C
Billy Hamilton
Henry Rodriguez
Ryan LaMarre or DiDi Gregorius

I'd probably include Stubbs in "B" or "C" just to help balance out some future payroll.

RedlegJake
07-06-2012, 11:52 PM
But they have pitching prospects- lots of em. They have their catcher entrenched for a while. They need infield and outfield prospects more than anything. Hamilton, H-Rod, and an B-level IF or OF makes a lot of sense. I'm thinking someone like LaMarre (if they see Hamilton as a SS) or Gregorius (if they see Hamilton as a CF).

I'd offer three packages, in the following order of my preference for dealing them:

PACKAGE A
Drew Stubbs
Any 3 prospects not named Hamilton

PACKAGE B
Aroldis Chapman

PACKAGE C
Billy Hamilton
Henry Rodriguez
Ryan LaMarre or DiDi Gregorius

I'd probably include Stubbs in "B" or "C" just to help balance out some future payroll.

Give me A all day long please.

AtomicDumpling
07-06-2012, 11:52 PM
I would pay almost anything it takes to get Justin Upton. He is an elite young player, probably even better than Jay Bruce and is a year younger than Bruce.

The Diamondbacks are loaded with young pitchers, so they are going to want stud hitters for Upton. I don't think the Reds have what the Diamondbacks need. The Reds' package would have to include Hamilton and Frazier and likely Henry Rodriguez too. I would pull the trigger on that for sure.

Players like Justin Upton don't come around often so if you have the chance to get him you do whatever it takes.

mdccclxix
07-07-2012, 12:00 AM
Was thinking today when a player like this would become available due to conflict where they are. This would be an awesome pick up. Hamilton would definitely have to be in the deal, and AZ would have to actually like him enough. AZ would also need to take on some of our possible arb cases for next year like Bray, Bailey, Leake, or Stubbs so the money works better. Upton's money might keep Chapman in the pen considering the money to get another closer. It would be a tight fit financially.

757690
07-07-2012, 12:06 AM
Hard to know for sure about this, but I doubt the Reds can afford his salary the next three years.

With Votto/Bruce/Phillips/Cueto locked up the next few years, and Latos about to get expensive, I doubt the Reds can afford anybody with a big contract.

PuffyPig
07-07-2012, 12:15 AM
It would be like acquiring another Jay Bruce, with possibly even more upside. I haven't once heard you suggest we trade Bruce, so I would imagine you would be fine giving this guy a whirl. He was worth 6.6 WAR as a 23 year old. If you aren't willing to give up prospects for him, I'm not sure if there is much sense in anything else.

I wouldn't think twice about including Hamilton in a deal for Upton.

He's not a CF, so has less value to us, unless you trade Bruce for him.

He's nice player, but Stubbs, Hamilton, Corcinco and others for him? I'd give up prospects, but not our 4 best, and have to put Heusey in CF full time.

I remember others wanted to dump Votto with Bailey in a trade for Blaton.

Scrap Irony
07-07-2012, 12:17 AM
Chapman, Stubbs, and Gregorius would get it done. Add Bill Bray to balance salaries. (Or, even better, Nick Masset as a PTBNL.) Play Jay Bruce in CF and take the defensive hit. Play Heisey late innings as a defensive replacement. Hoover moves to the majors, as does Donnie Joseph.

Phillips 2B
Upton RF
Votto 1B
Ludwick LF
Bruce CF
Frazier 3B
Cozart SS
Mesigan C

Rolen plays 3B a couple times a week, with Frazier roving to 1B as needed.

Like that. A lot.

dougdirt
07-07-2012, 12:18 AM
I remember others wanted to dump Votto with Bailey in a trade for Blaton.

What does that have to do with any of this?

Benihana
07-07-2012, 09:06 AM
I remember others wanted to dump Votto with Bailey in a trade for Blaton.
First off, that's incorrect (Bedard maybe, not Blanton).

Secondly, even if there were truth to it, what does it have to do with anything?

I remember others wouldn't trade Pokey Reese for Ken Griffey Jr.

Boss-Hog
07-07-2012, 09:55 AM
First off, that's incorrect (Bedard maybe, not Blanton).

Secondly, even if there were truth to it, what does it have to do with anything?

I remember others wouldn't trade Pokey Reese for Ken Griffey Jr.
I reread a few of the Blanton threads and there actually were several posters (some current, some former) in favor of including Votto + others in a trade for Blanton (most were against including Votto, though). I don't know if others necessarily included Bailey. That being said, I agree with you that I don't see what that has to do with this thread.

traderumor
07-07-2012, 10:39 AM
I still doubt the Reds will trade Hamilton. For anybody. I think they want this kid with the Reds as a base stealer and a drawing card.I'm with you. He's going to come up in every high profile trade rumor, but it would seem like a team without a leadoff hitter since the aforementioned Bip Roberts would be slotting him there for 2013 or early 2014, and in CF.

dunner13
07-07-2012, 10:57 AM
I love Billy Hamilton but at then end of the day his only above average ability is his amazing speed. He has no power, he can hit but hes not Ichiro so as much as I love him if you can get Justin Upton you trade hamilton in a second. I wouldn't trade him for just anyone but Upton is one of the best young players in the game and most likely will have a few MVP trophies on his mantle by the time he retires which as fast as hamilton is its very doubtful he ever wins an mvp.

Scrap Irony
07-07-2012, 11:21 AM
That's not true, dunner. Hamilton has speed (an 80 tool if ever there was one), the hit tool (a 330 average over his past year's worth of ABs), and, if moved to CF, both the glove and arm tool grade out as plus-plus. (One scout insisted he could move to CF today and become a Gold Glover next year in the majors.)

He is also patient at the plate and showing an improvement in pitch recognition, not to mention the kind of athlete that makes plays no one else makes in places no one else makes them.

Hamilton could be a game-changer at the top of the order. And that's worth quite a bit.

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 11:25 AM
I still doubt the Reds will trade Hamilton. For anybody. I think they want this kid with the Reds as a base stealer and a drawing card.

I agree. They've mismanaged Chapman, but he is a huge drawing card. Hamilton will be too.

Seems like this Reds management is becoming all about revenue and less about winning.

Joseph
07-07-2012, 11:29 AM
I agree. They've mismanaged Chapman, but he is a huge drawing card. Hamilton will be too.

Seems like this Reds management is becoming all about revenue and less about winning.

C'mon, sure you don't believe that. Drawing cards are great. Every teams wants marquee players, but the Reds have pumped seemingly most every dollar made from these players right back into payroll and player development. Do you think the old regime would have ponied up for Votto, Phillips, or Bruces' contracts?

No one is beyond reproach, but I think you are barking up the wrong tree with that statement. Its about winning.

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 11:36 AM
C'mon, sure you don't believe that. Drawing cards are great. Every teams wants marquee players, but the Reds have pumped seemingly most every dollar made from these players right back into payroll and player development. Do you think the old regime would have ponied up for Votto, Phillips, or Bruces' contracts?

No one is beyond reproach, but I think you are barking up the wrong tree with that statement. Its about winning.

Ok. I'll admit my frustration kicks in sometimes and comes through in my posts. But I've been frustrated all the way back to 2010. I think the Reds were a bit lucky that season and it has hurt them ever since because they had the same holes in the lineup that season.

I've never been a fan of Stubbs which makes CF a hole in the lineup. And LF has been a patchwork starting with Gomes for a few years.

They have done a good job of bolstering the starting pitching, but LF and CF, and cleanup and leadoff have had issues for years.

To invest so much money in Votto and not surround him with the proper lineup is such a waste. Votto is probably shaking his head in terms of signing long term with a small market club at this point. The guy's numbers are incredible and could be so much more if management knew how to surround him with the right players.

bellhead
07-07-2012, 11:48 AM
If upton were to sign a 3 year extension then i'd do it...

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 11:50 AM
There's gonna be nothing left of our farm system if they make some of these trades.

RedEye
07-07-2012, 11:52 AM
There's gonna be nothing left of our farm system if they make some of these trades.

At some point you've got to cash in your chips. If you can do it for a player like Upton, that's be best possible scenario.

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 11:58 AM
At some point you've got to cash in your chips. If you can do it for a player like Upton, that's be best possible scenario.

No. I agree. The Reds have every position pretty much accounted for at the major league level at this point except LF and CF, with no top level OF prospects. And it just so happens that leadoff and cleanup are the biggest holes offensively.

If they acquire Pierre and Upton, I'll be curious to see if Dusty uses them properly.

Benihana
07-07-2012, 12:07 PM
If upton were to sign a 3 year extension then i'd do it...

Upton is already signed through 2015. I'm at the point where I dont really want liabilities accumulating beyond then unless of course they are way below market value.

RedEye
07-07-2012, 12:10 PM
If they acquire Pierre and Upton, I'll be curious to see if Dusty uses them properly.

I think it would be hard for him not to. Even to an "old school" manager, their roles are pretty obvious, don't you think? Speedy guy at leadoff, RH slugger to slot between two lefties in the lineup. Lather, rinse, repeat every day for the next couple years.

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 12:15 PM
I think it would be hard for him not to. Even to an "old school" manager, their roles are pretty obvious, don't you think? Speedy guy at leadoff, RH slugger to slot between two lefties in the lineup. Lather, rinse, repeat every day for the next couple years.

You'd really have to think that upper management would have a sit down with Dusty and explain the moves and where these guys will be hitting.

I don't see where Dusty realistically has a choice anyway, unless he simply wants to be a hardhead.

cinreds21
07-07-2012, 12:28 PM
If Billy is off limits then something of Cingrani, Lotzkar, Rodriguez/Gregorious and Joseph may be something close.

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 12:30 PM
I'd love to see them trade Heisey, Stubbs, Cingrani or Corcino, Rodriguez, Gregorious for Upton and Adam Eaton. They could see how Eaton fares hitting in a non-california league and groom him as the future CFer if they don't keep Pierre (after obtaining him).

corkedbat
07-07-2012, 12:35 PM
I've been cautious the last couple of years about advocating the Reds backing up the truck and sending half the farm elsewhere for a rental or just one guy. It's mainly been because I haven't felt that just one piece could really make that much difference in this team's fortunes in making the playoff or advancing if they got there.

This year is different. I believe adding just one of a legit leadoff hitter, cleanup batter or TOR starter (even a rental) could significantly improve this teams postseson outlook. Any two, IMO, could make them strong contenders for a NL Pennant, if not the World Series itself.

Vottomatic
07-07-2012, 12:37 PM
Upton being only 24 and signed through 2015 intrigues me. It took this thread to reveal that info to me. Makes me want him more, even though his numbers are drastically down this season. I think hitting between Votto and Bruce, and playing for a winner would get him going. Atleast I hope. He's a former MVP candidate, I believe.

757690
07-07-2012, 01:51 PM
I'd be wary of Upton.

He's slumping and makes a ton of money through 2015. There really is no good reason for Arizona to be shopping him, unless they are worried about him. They might know why he's slumping and see it as a long term problem.

mdccclxix
07-07-2012, 02:32 PM
I think Upton would be the solution to LF and keep Stubbs the rest of the year and move him to 7th.

Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Upton
Bruce
Frazier
Stubbs
C

That way all the worry about CF goes away and we carry a defensive minded CF for what it's worth.

Upton would lock up this lineup for 3 more years, pretty amazing. The minors would just be for injury security and a few bench players that would have to rake to get in the lineup. 3 base would be about the only place to supplant a regular, perhaps SS if Cozart were to tank, but I think the Reds like his plate profile for a SS.

mdccclxix
07-07-2012, 02:36 PM
The point being, send whoever you got in the minors, you likely won't need them. Perhaps save Corcino if you wish to save money on Leake or Bailey.

Then by 2014-15-16 you've got countless other draft picks including this year's decent batch. We'd be set. I'd really hope Walt considers this with all he's got. Upton's salary will cause some chaffing with arb eligibles, but the reward would be worth it, I think. And payroll could sit around 100-115 million pretty easily if the Reds are contending every year.

mdccclxix
07-07-2012, 02:38 PM
Heck, if Mez works out as a slugger we could see

BP
Upton
Votto
Mez
Bruce
Frazier
Stubbs
Cozart
P

:lol: :lol: :lol:

PuffyPig
07-07-2012, 03:54 PM
I reread a few of the Blanton threads and there actually were several posters (some current, some former) in favor of including Votto + others in a trade for Blanton (most were against including Votto, though). I don't know if others necessarily included Bailey. That being said, I agree with you that I don't see what that has to do with this thread.

It's relevant as to the theory of trading prospects for sure things.

At the time many were advocating trading Votto for an established average pitcher, many thought we had first base covered with Dunn down the road.

Benihana
07-07-2012, 05:01 PM
It's relevant as to the theory of trading prospects for sure things.

At the time many were advocating trading Votto for an established average pitcher, many thought we had first base covered with Dunn down the road.

So don't ever trade prospects for proven players. Good strategy

klw
07-07-2012, 08:33 PM
If the Reds were to go heavy after someone I would almost prefer them to go after Jacoby Ellsbury.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/rosenthal-on-greinke-hamels-ellsbury-victorino.html

The Red Sox face ongoing luxury tax concerns and are over the threshold by $10MM, according to a source. That could make holding on to Jacoby Ellsbury difficult after 2013 and trading him might make sense at the end of this season. Unfortunately, the free agent market will be flooded with outfielders including Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Shane Victorino. That will obviously hurt the market for the 28-year-old.

AtomicDumpling
07-07-2012, 09:00 PM
It's relevant as to the theory of trading prospects for sure things.

At the time many were advocating trading Votto for an established average pitcher, many thought we had first base covered with Dunn down the road.

Keep in mind that at the time nobody thought a kid named Joey Votto was going to be a future MVP. He was a good prospect but not a great prospect at the time. It took him quite a while to make it to the major leagues. He was a bit of a late bloomer and developed much further than anybody ever thought he would. His case is certainly a great example of what you are risking when you trade a prospect, but we also have to understand that very, very few prospects (even top prospects) turn out to be as good as Joey Votto.

PuffyPig
07-07-2012, 09:16 PM
Keep in mind that at the time nobody thought a kid named Joey Votto was going to be a future MVP. He was a good prospect but not a great prospect at the time. It took him quite a while to make it to the major leagues. He was a bit of a late bloomer and developed much further than anybody ever thought he would. His case is certainly a great example of what you are risking when you trade a prospect, but we also have to understand that very, very few prospects (even top prospects) turn out to be as good as Joey Votto.

IIRC, at the time posters were talking about trading Votto he had already played the end of the year for the Reds. So, it would have been at the start of the 2008 season.

traderumor
07-08-2012, 09:39 AM
Keep in mind that at the time nobody thought a kid named Joey Votto was going to be a future MVP. He was a good prospect but not a great prospect at the time. It took him quite a while to make it to the major leagues. He was a bit of a late bloomer and developed much further than anybody ever thought he would. His case is certainly a great example of what you are risking when you trade a prospect, but we also have to understand that very, very few prospects (even top prospects) turn out to be as good as Joey Votto.And it is common for people to use that description about prospects? Votto was a very highly regarded prospect by a clear consensus and was clearly expected to be a middle of the order force. The only real debate about him was whether to hand him the job on Opening Day after his cup of coffee September callup stint.

Revering4Blue
07-08-2012, 12:13 PM
Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that the Pirates have had preliminary trade discussions with the Diamondbacks involving Justin Upton and with the Padres involving Carlos Quentin.

Morosi says Arizona and San Diego have been scouting Pittsburgh’s minor-league affiliates in recent days. Upton is having a disappointing year, batting just .267/.349/.386 for the D'Backs, but he would be a huge addition to a Pirates lineup that's very much in need of one despite a recent offensive surge. He would cost much more in prospects than Quentin, who has batted .273/.403/.527 with seven homers in 32 games since coming back from the disabled list

Benihana
07-08-2012, 12:22 PM
Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that the Pirates have had preliminary trade discussions with the Diamondbacks involving Justin Upton and with the Padres involving Carlos Quentin.

Morosi says Arizona and San Diego have been scouting Pittsburgh’s minor-league affiliates in recent days. Upton is having a disappointing year, batting just .267/.349/.386 for the D'Backs, but he would be a huge addition to a Pirates lineup that's very much in need of one despite a recent offensive surge. He would cost much more in prospects than Quentin, who has batted .273/.403/.527 with seven homers in 32 games since coming back from the disabled list

Upton and McCutchen would make one hell of an OF

Arizona would probably ask for Marte and Alvarez to start assuming Tallion and Cole are off limits.

I really hope the Reds get involved in this one.

cincrazy
07-08-2012, 12:25 PM
The more I think about it, I don't think it makes much sense for the Reds to do this. We just gutted our system for Latos last year, do we really want to do it again? I'm not sure a team in our position can afford to rid ourselves of more depth. I certainly don't want to rid ourselves of the prospects necessary to acquire him. Just because he's a big name and an impact talent doesn't mean it makes all that much sense. We've got our superstar in Votto. And great pitching. In reality, we should be more focused on finding pieces to the puzzle to put around the edges, not the big piece in the middle.

edabbs44
07-08-2012, 12:34 PM
I'm probably in the minority, however I don't have much interest in Upton.

Plus Plus
07-08-2012, 12:55 PM
I'm probably in the minority, however I don't have much interest in Upton.

I agree, edabbs44. While I agree that the two Upton brothers have unbelievable potential, they seem to find ways to disappoint when looking back on the season. That, plus the amount that it would take to acquire Justin Upton, makes him a non-target for me.

cbowen2112
07-08-2012, 01:09 PM
Let's just wait until next year and grab BJ Uptom for LF.

jojo
07-08-2012, 01:14 PM
I'd be all over Justin Upton.


He'd be like putting a right handed version of Bruce with better on base skills in left field. Upton and Bruce have similar sized platoon splits but whereas Bruce's platoon weakness reduces him to a slightly below average hitter against same-handed pitchers, Upton's is such that he is still significantly above average against same-handed hitters.

Bruce is a slightly better defender for his career (that's why I'd put Upton in left) but Upton has been a significantly better hitter. If Walt could get a corner outfielder who is better than Bruce in a trade, he probably should do it (with the usual caveats of course).

Adding either Willingham or Justin Upton to the Reds lineup would be a dream come true.

WVRedsFan
07-08-2012, 01:14 PM
I agree, edabbs44. While I agree that the two Upton brothers have unbelievable potential, they seem to find ways to disappoint when looking back on the season. That, plus the amount that it would take to acquire Justin Upton, makes him a non-target for me.

I'm with you two. He just isn't the impact hitter I would like to see. And I wouldn't give up the farm for a .270-ish hitter who happens to get on base at a pretty good clip. I hope there are better options.

RedEye
07-08-2012, 01:16 PM
The more I think about it, I don't think it makes much sense for the Reds to do this. We just gutted our system for Latos last year, do we really want to do it again? I'm not sure a team in our position can afford to rid ourselves of more depth. I certainly don't want to rid ourselves of the prospects necessary to acquire him. Just because he's a big name and an impact talent doesn't mean it makes all that much sense. We've got our superstar in Votto. And great pitching. In reality, we should be more focused on finding pieces to the puzzle to put around the edges, not the big piece in the middle.

I think Upton is potentially THE piece that completes a huge part of this puzzle. There is a reason that the Cards ponied up and brought in Holliday to replace Rolen when he was ineffective -- they needed someone to strike fear in pitchers after Pujols. The Reds now have their own Pujols in Votto, but they haven't been able to find their Rolen/Holliday (except for when they actually had that same Rolen for the first half of 2010). People talk about having no OBP types at the top of the order, but honestly a lot of those types of problems become diminished when you've got the type of 3/4 combo that Votto/Upton would provide. Add in Bruce and his potential for greatness, and you've got a 3/4/5 that no team is going to want to face, ever. Acquire an aging Juan Pierre and slot in BP at #2 and suddenly this is a dominant O to match a dominant staff. Hello, October baseball.

Vottomatic
07-08-2012, 01:19 PM
I don't see a potential cleanup hitter in the Reds farm system, therefore they need to acquire one......Upton, Willingham, etc.

I do see a potential leadoff hitter down the road in the farm system in Hamilton. So aquiring a rental for leadoff makes sense.

RedEye
07-08-2012, 01:21 PM
I don't see a potential cleanup hitter in the Reds farm system, therefore they need to acquire one......Upton, Willingham, etc.

I do see a potential leadoff hitter down the road in the farm system in Hamilton. So aquiring a rental for leadoff makes sense.

The problem, though, is that said leadoff hitter is probably the main trading chip the Reds have for acquiring said players...

cbowen2112
07-08-2012, 01:21 PM
I think we will see a bench player that hits left handed added this month. Maybe a reliever too, but that is about it. We will have to wait to acquire a cleanup bat. And we will be forced to go with either the lead off rental we get(if it happens and we control him) or the same top of the order we have this year.

Vottomatic
07-08-2012, 01:24 PM
I think we will see a bench player that hits left handed added this month. Maybe a reliever too, but that is about it. We will have to wait to acquire a cleanup bat. And we will be forced to go with either the lead off rental we get(if it happens and we control him) or the same top of the order we have this year.

......and if no leadoff hitter and cleanup hitter are acquired, and the Reds offense continues to struggle because of it and they fall out of the race, we may be looking at a new manager who is willing to tinker with the lineup more.

Tom Servo
07-08-2012, 01:26 PM
Upton OPS - .735
Ludwick OPS - .780

RedEye
07-08-2012, 01:27 PM
......and if no leadoff hitter and cleanup hitter are acquired, and the Reds offense continues to struggle because of it and they fall out of the race, we may be looking at a new manager who is willing to tinker with the lineup more.

I wouldn't mind if Dusty were replaced, but I'll defend him a bit here. Short of trying Hanigan higher in the order, maybe putting Bruce at cleanup, there's not much I can think of that he could do with this group to make them better. He's basically got a team with Super Votto and a lot of hitters with good tools but bad plate discipline problems. He can only do so much.

RedEye
07-08-2012, 01:29 PM
Upton OPS - .735
Ludwick OPS - .780

Upton, 24 with a career OPS of .838
Ludwick, 33 with a career OPS of .787

Also worth mentioning that Upton has had a thumb injury this year that has been holding him back. All signs point to a bounceback second half for him IMO.

dougdirt
07-08-2012, 01:30 PM
Upton OPS - .735
Ludwick OPS - .780

This season.

I think the real and only question is, is there a real problem with his shoulder and is that the reason his power is down? If his shoulder is healthy, you buy and you will not have buyers remorse.

From 2009-2011 Upton, at ages 21-23 in the Major Leagues, hit .288/.364/.503. If he is healthy, you trade what you can for him.

RedEye
07-08-2012, 01:33 PM
I agree, edabbs44. While I agree that the two Upton brothers have unbelievable potential, they seem to find ways to disappoint when looking back on the season. That, plus the amount that it would take to acquire Justin Upton, makes him a non-target for me.

IMO the two Uptons are apples and oranges at this point. BJ has been a disappointment along the lines of Stubbs in many ways -- useful to be sure, but exasperating in his seeming inability to reach his ceiling. Justin has already put together several MVP-type seasons at age 24 -- and would be a mainstay of the Reds' lineup for years to come.

Tom Servo
07-08-2012, 01:37 PM
Upton, 24 with a career OPS of .838
Ludwick, 33 with a career OPS of .787

Also worth mentioning that Upton has had a thumb injury this year that has been holding him back. All signs point to a bounceback second half for him IMO.
This is true. I just think the judgment that the Reds need a cleanup hitter right now are not looking at the bigger picture. You trade all your pieces for Upton and still have Cozart and Stubbs leading off followed by Votto and Upton and the problems are still the same.

Vottomatic
07-08-2012, 01:38 PM
Yeah, let's sit tight. Mlbtraderumors reporting the Pirates going after Carlos Quentin.

Kc61
07-08-2012, 01:38 PM
Retail price for J Upton would probably be a Jay Bruce straight up. Or a package of three top prospects. I wouldn't do this. I'd rather keep my home grown guys, who I know, than Upton who for whatever reason is on the block.

If, however, the DBacks are anxious to get rid of Upton, if they just don't want him around, then maybe he comes for a bit less. Maybe two top prospects and a Heisey type, or something along those lines. Then I would have great interest.

In sports, sometimes there is an opportunity to get a player for a bit less than retail because he is in an unworkable situation with his current team. Those can be great opportunities for an acquiring club. If that's where the DBacks are, I'd listen hard.

Kc61
07-08-2012, 01:42 PM
This is true. I just think the judgment that the Reds need a cleanup hitter right now are not looking at the bigger picture. You trade all your pieces for Upton and still have Cozart and Stubbs leading off followed by Votto and Upton and the problems are still the same.

The Reds need more OBP and hitting against RHP. I wouldn't put it in terms of lead off or cleanup. Batting orders can be manipulated.

What the Reds do not need is another righty power hitter who doesn't get on base and mostly mashes lefties.

If they get a top of the order guy, then they will make do with their current Phillps at cleanup arrangement.

If they get a middle of the order guy, then Phillips leads off. And Dusty led off with Phillips last year, so it's no answer that he won't. He would.

Either way is fine with me as long as they are adding OBP and hitting against righties. My preference is a lead off hitter, but the other approach is fine if it's the right individual.

RedEye
07-08-2012, 01:45 PM
Retail price for J Upton would probably be a Jay Bruce straight up. Or a package of three top prospects. I wouldn't do this. I'd rather keep my home grown guys, who I know, than Upton who for whatever reason is on the block.


I wouldn't do Bruce for Upton, but I would definitely consider three top prospects. Just not sure the Reds have what it takes to outbid other teams at this point. They won the Latos sweepstakes with their best chips, so they've got less to work with now. That said, I think a package with Hamilton, Chapman or Mesoraco on top is still very competitive. I'd consider giving up one of these guys very seriously if I were them.

OTOH, If the Reds don't want to part with either of those three guys (and I wouldn't blame them at all) then I think they'd probably have to start talks with Heisey and/or Stubbs, along with a SP or two (Corcino, Lotzkar, Cingrani, Stephenson) and a high-upside talent like Y-Rod to put it over the top.

Obviously, pure speculation on my part -- but I think these names would best the offers put forth by, say, Pitt.

757690
07-08-2012, 01:56 PM
This season.

I think the real and only question is, is there a real problem with his shoulder and is that the reason his power is down? If his shoulder is healthy, you buy and you will not have buyers remorse.

From 2009-2011 Upton, at ages 21-23 in the Major Leagues, hit .288/.364/.503. If he is healthy, you trade what you can for him.

Ay, there's the rub.

My thought is that Arizona must know something about his shoulder or another injury, because there is absolutely zero reason why they should trade Upton. He's young, talented and under team control for three more years. Plus Arizona is a very good team right now, it doesn't need to be rebuilding for the future.

If he's healthy, Upton is a perfect fit for the Reds. But I would bet dollars to doughnuts that he's not.

marcshoe
07-08-2012, 02:38 PM
I dreamed last night that the Reds traded for Upton, then sat him on the bench.


fwiw, I dreamed they signed Aroldis before they did, but that's been my only accurate prophetic dream. A couple of years ago I dreamed that they invited Cesar Geronimo to spring training, and he outhit everybody on the team.

dougdirt
07-08-2012, 02:48 PM
The Reds don't have prospects like they did last year. Or the year before. There simply aren't "for sure" legit Major League starters in the system right now.

Billy Hamilton - Still has questions about his bat and his defensive ability.
Daniel Corcino - Some guys see him as a #3. Some guys see him as a #5.
Robert Stephenson - I doubt he is on the block at all (same for Hamilton for that matter), but he is in rookie ball.
Tony Cingrani - Scouts are still split as to whether he can even be a starter, much less a good one.
Didi Gregorius - Solid prospect, but nothing elite.
Henry Rodriguez - Not an ideal third baseman, hasn't played anywhere else this year. Always had questions about his defense at 2B.
Kyle Lotzkar - Long injury history, tailing performance in AA right now
JC Sulbaran - Very inconsistent.

There isn't a sure fire guy in there. Not one. You trade those types of guys for elite level talents if you can.

Vottomatic
07-08-2012, 02:51 PM
Ay, there's the rub.

My thought is that Arizona must know something about his shoulder or another injury, because there is absolutely zero reason why they should trade Upton. He's young, talented and under team control for three more years. Plus Arizona is a very good team right now, it doesn't need to be rebuilding for the future.

If he's healthy, Upton is a perfect fit for the Reds. But I would bet dollars to doughnuts that he's not.

If there is something wrong with Upton physically, and they know about it, they would get into alot of trouble trading him for that reason if found out.

BCubb2003
07-08-2012, 02:56 PM
I dreamed last night that the Reds traded for Upton, then sat him on the bench.


fwiw, I dreamed they signed Aroldis before they did, but that's been my only accurate prophetic dream. A couple of years ago I dreamed that they invited Cesar Geronimo to spring training, and he outhit everybody on the team.

You'd better lay off the Skyline.

marcshoe
07-08-2012, 03:00 PM
You'd better lay off the Skyline.

I won't mention the part about trading Jay Bruce for him.

AtomicDumpling
07-09-2012, 03:28 AM
Results of last year's MVP Award voting:

1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp
3. Prince Fielder
4. Justin Upton
5. Albert Pujols
6. Joey Votto

WebScorpion
07-09-2012, 03:34 AM
I think trading for Justin Upton is a great idea, but like KC61 I wouldn't give up too much for him. The only way I'd give up a lot of prospects is if they'd pay his salary...he's not cheap. I see Billy Hamilton as our future center fielder and leadoff hitter, so I'd do everything possible to not trade him. Also, I'd be wary of Upton's health...tell the Doc to be extra thorough in the physical. Hopefully, it's just a 'change of scenery' situation and the D'Backs looking to shed salary. If it works out, it works out, but I wouldn't sell the farm for him. :dunno:

fearofpopvol1
07-09-2012, 03:38 AM
The Reds don't have prospects like they did last year. Or the year before. There simply aren't "for sure" legit Major League starters in the system right now.

Billy Hamilton - Still has questions about his bat and his defensive ability.
Daniel Corcino - Some guys see him as a #3. Some guys see him as a #5.
Robert Stephenson - I doubt he is on the block at all (same for Hamilton for that matter), but he is in rookie ball.
Tony Cingrani - Scouts are still split as to whether he can even be a starter, much less a good one.
Didi Gregorius - Solid prospect, but nothing elite.
Henry Rodriguez - Not an ideal third baseman, hasn't played anywhere else this year. Always had questions about his defense at 2B.
Kyle Lotzkar - Long injury history, tailing performance in AA right now
JC Sulbaran - Very inconsistent.

There isn't a sure fire guy in there. Not one. You trade those types of guys for elite level talents if you can.

I agree with this. So in order to pull this off, the Reds would have to trade a lot of guys. Probably the only real way it could work is if Arizona was willing to to take Stubbs as part of the deal, with a few of these other guys. But I don't see any chance they'd do this deal without Hamilton.

I would think Stubbs/Hamilton/Rodriguez might get it done. You may have to throw in Corcino or Cingrani as well.

Scrap Irony
07-09-2012, 10:15 AM
Chapman and a couple high level prospects would work just fine for Arizona, IMO.

A deal of Chapman straight up for Upton may not work, but Chapman, Vidal, and Lotzkar would. (Then you could deal Stubbs for Pierre to round out the lineup and protect yourself from Upton's injury issues.

Pierre LF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Upton RF
Bruce CF
Frazier/ Rolen 3B
Mesigan C
Cozart SS

That gives up a bench of Heisey and Ludwick (strong, that), Frazolen, Hanoraco, and one middle infielder (Valdez or Janish, maybe Henry Rodriguez). That bench, while not as defensively strong, is much better hitting.

I understand the questions about Bruce in CF, but, with Pierre in LF and Upton in RF, the overall defense would still be above league average, with plenty of range on both corners.

traderumor
07-09-2012, 12:19 PM
Justin Upton is not included on a list of guys that I'd trade Chapman in order to get. The thing about that list is that those guys aren't available.

Kc61
07-09-2012, 12:25 PM
Billy Hamiton and Aroldis Chapman are not getting traded for Justin Upton.

The only way the Reds trade Chapman is in his contract year if he says he isn't coming back.

The only way the Reds trade Hamilton is if he fails in the majors.

These guys have unique value to the Reds because they lend excitement and fan interest to the team. They are going no place and for Upton, who the DBacks want to shed for whatever reason, no way.

RedEye
07-09-2012, 02:43 PM
[Hamilton and Chapman] have unique value to the Reds because they lend excitement and fan interest to the team. They are going no place and for Upton, who the DBacks want to shed for whatever reason, no way.

I don't see them being traded together, but I could see one of them being dealt for the right player -- like Upton.

Upton would lend his own excitement and fan interest to the team IMO. Any time your team has a chance to add one of the top young talents in the game, you see if you can do it.

In any case, it is probably a pipe dream.

Kc61
07-09-2012, 03:15 PM
I don't see them being traded together, but I could see one of them being dealt for the right player -- like Upton.

Upton would lend his own excitement and fan interest to the team IMO. Any time your team has a chance to add one of the top young talents in the game, you see if you can do it.

In any case, it is probably a pipe dream.

I disagree here.

Just my view, and I've said it before, but the Reds will not trade Chapman and will not trade Hamilton. They are star attractions. And potentially excellent players. The Reds want them for baseball reasons AND as attractions to create interest in the team and create revenue for the team.

OK, would they trade one or both of them for Verlander? Sure, different story. For one of the big name attractions in baseball? Sure, if the money worked out.

For Justin Upton? Absolutely no way.

REDREAD
07-09-2012, 03:18 PM
.831 lifetime OPS and it's not trading upwards my any means.

Sell the farm if you want, but selling everyone for someone who's expensive and not that great makes no sense.

My thoughts exactly.. I'd love to have him, but I'm not emptying out the farm for him.

His youth isn't attractive to me, because he is paid like a veteran performer.
His contract:

He gets a $1.25 million signing bonus, half on April 15 and the rest on July 15. He receives salaries of $500,000 this year, $4.25 million in 2011, $6.75 million in 2012, $9.75 million in 2013, $14.25 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2015.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2012, 03:32 PM
Offer Stubbs, Ondrusek, Lotzkar and Vidal for him. Not too much, but not chop liver either.

Kc61
07-09-2012, 03:39 PM
Chopped liver. I suggest Stubbs or Heisey, Dbacks choice; Lotzkar; Gregorius; Bray.

If you put Gregorius in the deal with Lotzkar and an outfielder, you may get traction.

PuffyPig
07-09-2012, 03:48 PM
Stubbs for Pierre?????

Oh my.

I have trouble comprehending that Stubbs can be the headliner in the deal for Upton, yet somethink his trade value equals Pierre.

RedEye
07-09-2012, 03:53 PM
Two thoughts:

If the Reds don't include Chapman or Hamilton in the deal, I doubt they can outbid other teams for Upton.

Upton was an MVP candidate last season and had an April thumb injury along with some bad luck in the first half this year. I don't think we can yet say that his OPS is "trending" any which way if we factor in those two variables.

PuffyPig
07-09-2012, 03:58 PM
I understand the questions about Bruce in CF, but, with Pierre in LF and Upton in RF, the overall defense would still be above league average, with plenty of range on both corners.

OF defense would be below league avergae.

Pierre is a very bad OF with zero arm.

Bruce is likley fair in CF, but below average.


I'don't know how good Upton would be in RF, I just assume if ohe coyld play a passable RF he wouldn't be stuck in LF.

Vottomatic
07-09-2012, 04:51 PM
I still don't see anything happening because I don't believe the Reds will trade Chapman or Hamilton, thus eliminating any possible trade partners.

Benihana
07-10-2012, 12:02 AM
The Reds don't have prospects like they did last year. Or the year before. There simply aren't "for sure" legit Major League starters in the system right now.

Billy Hamilton - Still has questions about his bat and his defensive ability.
Daniel Corcino - Some guys see him as a #3. Some guys see him as a #5.
Robert Stephenson - I doubt he is on the block at all (same for Hamilton for that matter), but he is in rookie ball.
Tony Cingrani - Scouts are still split as to whether he can even be a starter, much less a good one.
Didi Gregorius - Solid prospect, but nothing elite.
Henry Rodriguez - Not an ideal third baseman, hasn't played anywhere else this year. Always had questions about his defense at 2B.
Kyle Lotzkar - Long injury history, tailing performance in AA right now
JC Sulbaran - Very inconsistent.

There isn't a sure fire guy in there. Not one. You trade those types of guys for elite level talents if you can.

Agree with this. There isn't a prospect in the system that I'd lose a ton of sleep over trading. Hamilton may be the closest, but I wouldn't hesitate to move 2-3 other names on this list for a player of Upton's caliber.

If it were up to me, I'd look to move Gregorius, Sulbaran, Rodriguez, Lotzkar, and Cingrani from that list in that order. I'd happily offer any 3 of those guys + Stubbs for Upton.

If you're able to acquire a player of Upton's caliber signed through 2015 (and unload Stubbs in the process) without giving up Chapman, Hamilton, Corcino or Stephenson, you do it everytime.

Scrap Irony
07-10-2012, 12:17 AM
At this point, Corcino = Cingrani.

In fact, you could certainly make the argument that Cingrani, being LH and having had nothing but success at the professional level, having the better K rate, lower BB rate, the better WHIP, et al, that Cingrani has passed Corcino as the top pitching prospect in the Cincinnati pipeline. In 30 starts, Cingrani has given up 100 hits. His ERA is 1.44. His K rate is 12.1. His fastball and change-up are considered good pitches, his control is considered as outstanding, and his slider is developing. In all, Cingrani's shown nothing but dominance, TOR production so far. And more than half of that was done in hitter's leagues.

I agree that anyone not named Hamilton is fairly easy to move at this point, especially for a difference-maker like Upton. But I'd be at least as hesitant to move Cingrani as Corcino. Production like his doesn't happen every day. Especially not in Cincinnat's minor league system.

gilpdawg
07-10-2012, 04:35 AM
Who the heck is trading for Stubbs? He's not a prospect anymore. He's 27 years old. He's a throw-in.

Something about this Upton thing doesn't seem right. I think the dude is not healthy, or he's a clubhouse cancer. No way they would be looking to trade him otherwise. Heck, they are still in the race. Doesn't seem right to me. I think I'd stay away unless you get a godfather offer, and that's not going to happen.

RichRed
07-10-2012, 09:42 AM
Upton's been getting booed at home. We all know how fans can turn on a star player. Is a change of scenery in order?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8131431/care

Benihana
07-10-2012, 10:12 AM
www.mlbtraderumors.com


The Diamondbacks are seriously open to the idea of trading Upton, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic confirms. The organization has outfield depth in the Majors and minors, so the club could replace his production in the short term. Some decision makers in the organization don’t seem crazy about Upton, as the recent comments of managing general partner Ken Kendrick suggest.

The Diamondbacks would be looking for a third baseman, shortstop or top-of-the-rotation starter if they trade Upton, Piecoro reports.

Rodriguez, Gregorius, and their choice of Corcino/Cingrani/Lotzkar. Let's go!

oregonred
07-10-2012, 01:32 PM
My thoughts exactly.. I'd love to have him, but I'm not emptying out the farm for him.

His youth isn't attractive to me, because he is paid like a veteran performer.
His contract:

I tend to agree. He is under contract but gets very expensive in 2014/2015 The youth upside is that he could explode with monster 2013-2015 numbers but he is gone after 2015 best case. Taking on 45M in salary over the next 3+ years while gutting the farm seems to make little sense unless the window absolutely is planned to end in 2015 (with Votto/Phillips/Bruce still locked up to big contracts).

Even in the pipedream that the Reds could get Upton, how exactly are they going to take on another $14M+ salary in 2014/2015 and another $10M salary in 2013? This would push the payroll over $100M in each of those years. So who is leaving?

bucksfan2
07-10-2012, 02:00 PM
I tend to agree. He is under contract but gets very expensive in 2014/2015 The youth upside is that he could explode with monster 2013-2015 numbers but he is gone after 2015 best case. Taking on 45M in salary over the next 3+ years while gutting the farm seems to make little sense unless the window absolutely is planned to end in 2015 (with Votto/Phillips/Bruce still locked up to big contracts).

Even in the pipedream that the Reds could get Upton, how exactly are they going to take on another $14M+ salary in 2014/2015 and another $10M salary in 2013? This would push the payroll over $100M in each of those years. So who is leaving?

Win. You tell me a core of Votto, Bruce, Upton, Phillips, Cueto, Latos, Leake, Bailey, and Chapman wouldn't be the prohibitive favorites in the NL Central over the next 3 years?

If Upton gets too expensive in 2014/15 you trade him. But if the Reds are able to stack back to back to back playoff appearances that will increase their ticket sales, enable them to raise ticket prices, make then a bigger draw on the road, and give them better TV negotiating rights.

oregonred
07-10-2012, 04:22 PM
You are assuming that at least one of Leake, Bailey or Chapman isn't the core part of the deal. They are going to want someone major league ready in addition to 1-2 top tier prospects.

Reds already have $52M in payroll committed to just six guys in 2014 (Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Marshall, Chapman). Assuming you can keep Latos, Bailey and Leake that's another $15-20M easily as Y2 and Y3 arb eligibles. So now the Reds are at $90M in 2014 for just the nine core guys + Upton and the payroll goes way higher in 2015. An impressive list of players and would be amazing, but just not going to happen.

Near term payflex went out the window with the Votto and Phillips extenstion. And the expensive part of Votto's deal doesn't kick in until after the new TV deal kicks in later in the decade.

RedEye
07-10-2012, 05:13 PM
You are assuming that at least one of Leake, Bailey or Chapman isn't the core part of the deal. They are going to want someone major league ready in addition to 1-2 top tier prospects.


I would include either Bailey or Leake in a deal for Upton, no question.

Bailey or Leake + Rodriguez and Lotzkar

Then slot Chapman into the rotation and let the winning begin.

DGullett35
07-10-2012, 05:19 PM
Chapman isn't going into this rotation until 2013. Chapman has to stay as this teams closer for the time being because theres noone else that can consistently do the job. As much as Id like Masset to step into that role I think it will take him awhile to be able to handle the high leverage situation. Id include Bailey or Leake in a deal for Upton but then we would have to go after Dempster or Garza to fill the hole left in the rotation.

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 05:28 PM
I would argue that Chapman hasn't done the job consistently.

DGullett35
07-10-2012, 05:52 PM
I would argue that Chapman hasn't done the job consistently.

I will agree, however Chapman is by far the best suitor for the closer role on this team. Marshall has struggled somewhat in the 8th inning here recently. Arredondo and Ondrusek would be like watching CoCo all over again if they were thrust into that role. Chapman had a bad couple weeks but has been pretty dominate and is finally throwing that slide peice again. I wish masset could do the closer duties but like I said before it may take awhile for him to be able to handle the high leverage situations. Who knows come September Masset could be this teams closer. Kind of like a Jason Motte for last years red birds.

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 05:58 PM
I will agree, however Chapman is by far the best suitor for the closer role on this team. Marshall has struggled somewhat in the 8th inning here recently. Arredondo and Ondrusek would be like watching CoCo all over again if they were thrust into that role. Chapman had a bad couple weeks but has been pretty dominate and is finally throwing that slide peice again. I wish masset could do the closer duties but like I said before it may take awhile for him to be able to handle the high leverage situations. Who knows come September Masset could be this teams closer. Kind of like a Jason Motte for last years red birds.

Marshall has allowed 3 runs since May 20th in 18.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP.

DGullett35
07-10-2012, 06:03 PM
Marshall has allowed 3 runs since May 20th in 18.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP.

You got me Doug. maybe it seems like hes pitched poorly lately because noone in the pen has pitched all that much here in the last couple weeks. He gave up the dinger to Denorfia on Thur. and loaded the bases on Fri. Ondrusek got him outta that one. he did come back on Sat. or Sun?? and pitched 1.2 innings of extremely good relief. I just think hes better suited for a 7th or 8th inning role than a closer role. I know he did a decent job in the beginning of the year but thats just my opinion. However numbers do not lie.

RedEye
07-10-2012, 06:12 PM
Chapman isn't going into this rotation until 2013. Chapman has to stay as this teams closer for the time being because theres noone else that can consistently do the job. As much as Id like Masset to step into that role I think it will take him awhile to be able to handle the high leverage situation. Id include Bailey or Leake in a deal for Upton but then we would have to go after Dempster or Garza to fill the hole left in the rotation.

That may be true, but I was arguing more in terms of the 2013 to 2015 window. If it meant acquiring Justin Upton, I think the team could get by with someone else in the 5th starter role for the rest of 2012 if they weren't willing to move Chapman from closer. I don't think they'd have to panic and acquire Garza or Dempster.

DGullett35
07-10-2012, 07:22 PM
That may be true, but I was arguing more in terms of the 2013 to 2015 window. If it meant acquiring Justin Upton, I think the team could get by with someone else in the 5th starter role for the rest of 2012 if they weren't willing to move Chapman from closer. I don't think they'd have to panic and acquire Garza or Dempster.

Gotcha..However they still would have to go out and aquire someone. We really don't have anyone in Louisville that could come up right now and be our 5th starter. Simon or LeCure would be the best option and thats really not a great option IMO. We may not need to go out and get a Dempster or Garza but we would need to get someone. If this trade were to happen Jeff Francis would have fit perfectly into that 5th spot for a fill in for the rest of the year.

RedEye
07-10-2012, 07:48 PM
If this trade were to happen Jeff Francis would have fit perfectly into that 5th spot for a fill in for the rest of the year.

Anyway, I think they could figure it out. Heck, maybe they'd still have time to put Aroldis in AAA for a few months to stretch him out in time for September. Meanwhile, they could do worse than LeCure.

I dunno. All I know is that if J-Up is available for a reasonable price (which a three-player return headlined by Bailey or Leake would absolutely be), Walt should be all over it.

mth123
07-11-2012, 05:10 AM
I don't think the Reds really have what it takes to get him. If they are saying Top of the rotation starter, Leake or Bailey probably won't get it done. Neither would Corcino, Cingrani or Lotzkar. Maybe Cueto. Third Base? H-Rod? A guy who hasn't really played there all that much. Really? SS? Didi. Maybe, but he looks more like a utility guy to me at this point.

I'm guessing they are thinking more along the lines of a package like Martin Perez, Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar from Texas (all of whom are better than the Reds best prospect). Maybe they wouldn't get all three, but I'd bet at least 2 of those positions would need guys of that caliber with the 3rd substituting a lesser but still highly regarded guy.

At minimum the Reds would need to include Hamilton and Corcino IMO and it would probably take adding a Todd Frazier to even be in the conversation. I'd happily pay that, but I'd still bet some other team would top that or AZ would flatly turn it down.

camisadelgolf
07-11-2012, 07:39 AM
http://s9.postimage.org/it9pz293z/upton_olney.jpg

dunner13
07-11-2012, 10:34 AM
The latest article on mlbtraderumors says the Dbacks are looking for players that can help them now not prospects that are a few years away. So what about giving them Cozart and Stubbs? We may have to throw in a third prospect to make it happen but those are two guys who could help now. Gregorious is in AAA now so hopefully he would be ready to make the jump, from what I read about him in Spring Training it seems like defensively hes ready to come up now. We would obviously have a hole in CF which could either be filled by Heisey or by trading prospects for victorino, pierre, span or someone like that.

oregonred
07-11-2012, 10:45 AM
The latest article on mlbtraderumors says the Dbacks are looking for players that can help them now not prospects that are a few years away. So what about giving them Cozart and Stubbs? We may have to throw in a third prospect to make it happen but those are two guys who could help now. Gregorious is in AAA now so hopefully he would be ready to make the jump, from what I read about him in Spring Training it seems like defensively hes ready to come up now. We would obviously have a hole in CF which could either be filled by Heisey or by trading prospects for victorino, pierre, span or someone like that.

Trading Cozart would create a major hole at SS and set us back to Janish-town or Valdez-ville. No thanks.

Stubbs would be part of the package but you'd still need a headliner or two. IMO they'd probably want Leake, Hamilton and Stubbs to even start the conversation.

Regardless, the Reds still can't afford Upton after 2013. 2014-2016 payroll is going to be a challenge without another $14M+ salary in the mix.

Scrap Irony
07-11-2012, 12:00 PM
If Texas is offering Profrar and Olt together (not to mention Perez), there's nothing anyone else in baseball can offer that would trump it. Profrar is the best prospect in baseball. Olt is an absolute masher who's improved enough this year to garner some consideration as the top 3B prospect in the game. Perez has been ranked among the highest prospects in the game for four years.

Arizona might want those guys for Upton, but there's absolutely no way Texas is going to offer it. I don't know if they'd offer that for Mike Trout or Harper.

RedlegJake
07-11-2012, 02:36 PM
If Texas is offering Profrar and Olt together (not to mention Perez), there's nothing anyone else in baseball can offer that would trump it. Profrar is the best prospect in baseball. Olt is an absolute masher who's improved enough this year to garner some consideration as the top 3B prospect in the game. Perez has been ranked among the highest prospects in the game for four years.

Arizona might want those guys for Upton, but there's absolutely no way Texas is going to offer it. I don't know if they'd offer that for Mike Trout or Harper.

Yeah - if Arizona can get that I say grab it D-Backs and count your blessings. No one can match it or come close.

Brutus
07-11-2012, 02:49 PM
I wonder if the Reds wouldn't have to part with Todd Frazier to get a deal done, given the report the D-backs are looking for a 3B.

That would solve the Reds' LF problem, but ostensibly create a hole at 3B going forward.

dougdirt
07-11-2012, 03:00 PM
I wonder if the Reds wouldn't have to part with Todd Frazier to get a deal done, given the report the D-backs are looking for a 3B.

That would solve the Reds' LF problem, but ostensibly create a hole at 3B going forward.

To obtain Justin Upton I would gladly settle for whatever Henry Rodriguez is going to bring me at third base.

SidneySlicker
07-11-2012, 03:04 PM
Question. Would you do a deal of Stubbs and Chapman for Upton? Heisey woould finish ths season in center with Ludwick as the 4th outfelder and rush Hamilton up for next year. Meaning your outfield
Of the future would be Upton, Hamilton, and Bruce.

Scrap Irony
07-11-2012, 03:08 PM
To obtain Justin Upton I would gladly settle for whatever Henry Rodriguez is going to bring me at third base.

Me, too. Though I'd guess Rolen would play almost all the time anyway.

SidneySlicker
07-11-2012, 03:09 PM
1. Hamilton
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Upton
5. Bruce
6. Cozart
7. Frazier
8. Mesoraco

powersackers
07-11-2012, 03:15 PM
Yeah - if Arizona can get that I say grab it D-Backs and count your blessings. No one can match it or come close.

Texas is a powerhouse now and for years to come. They are doing the right things down there. Losing Josh Hamilton might just be a minor bump in the road to them if they get Upton. If they don't get Upton they have prospects to make up for Hamilton's departure one way or another. +1 Nolan Ryan and his staff.

oregonred
07-11-2012, 03:24 PM
Question. Would you do a deal of Stubbs and Chapman for Upton? Heisey woould finish ths season in center with Ludwick as the 4th outfelder and rush Hamilton up for next year. Meaning your outfield
Of the future would be Upton, Hamilton, and Bruce.

Adding Josh Hamilton and Upton would be incredible ;)

The problem is Billy Hamilton won't be ready until mid '14 and by that time Upton will be making 14M a year and best case be gone after 2015.

Brutus
07-11-2012, 03:31 PM
To obtain Justin Upton I would gladly settle for whatever Henry Rodriguez is going to bring me at third base.

As much as I like Frazier, I would still be willing to do it if I'm the Reds. But it would be with reservation, I think.

RedEye
07-11-2012, 04:27 PM
I think Todd Fraziers are much easier to find than are Justin Uptons. I include Frazier in the deal and don't look back.

RichRed
07-11-2012, 04:31 PM
I think Todd Fraziers are much easier to find than are Justin Uptons. I include Frazier in the deal and don't look back.

I'd look back a time or two but yeah, I'd make that deal.

Vottomatic
07-11-2012, 05:55 PM
I'm not saying I wouldn't trade Frazier, but that interview during a game a while back with Homer Bailey talking about how Todd Frazier kept everyone loose made me think he is a valuable component of the team chemistry. Maybe not a reason not to trade him.........but he's popoluar with his teammates. Might do some harm.

OldXOhio
07-11-2012, 05:55 PM
When was the last time the Reds didn't give up a lot in a bigger than average trade?

Benihana
07-11-2012, 06:10 PM
I think Todd Fraziers are much easier to find than are Justin Uptons. I include Frazier in the deal and don't look back.

Agreed, especially when you have Henry Rodriguez and David Vidal on the farm, and a guy like Youkilis potentially wanting to finish his career at home for cheap in FA (although that option becomes significantly less likely with Uptons salary on the books). Still for one second just imagine:

Phillips 2B
Youkilis 3B
Votto 1B
Upton LF
Bruce RF
Heisey CF (switching to Hamilton leading off in 2014)
Hanigan/Mesoraco C
Cozart SS

I would think a package of Frazier, Stubbs, and Gregorius would certainly get their attention. If you add a guy like Bailey or Lotzkar, I think the Dbacks do that deal.

I would of course offer H-Rod instead of Frazier first, but this COULD also be a sell-high move on Frazier. It's quite conceivable that he is not going to maintain an OPS above .825 in the future.

camisadelgolf
07-11-2012, 07:18 PM
When was the last time the Reds didn't give up a lot in a bigger than average trade?
In terms of actual production, Jocketty has received more than he has given up, and it's not even close.
According to b-rWAR, the Reds have had 10.6 WAR worth of production so far (and climbing with Latos and Marshall). The receiving teams have gotten 2.3 WAR.

RedEye
07-11-2012, 07:38 PM
I'm not saying I wouldn't trade Frazier, but that interview during a game a while back with Homer Bailey talking about how Todd Frazier kept everyone loose made me think he is a valuable component of the team chemistry. Maybe not a reason not to trade him.........but he's popoluar with his teammates. Might do some harm.

Chemistry schmemistry. Upton would help the Reds win more games; winning creates chemistry, too.

I am sure Frazier's a nice guy. I'm sure a lot of the Reds are. That's not a reason to turn down a trade for one of the best young players in the game.

Scrap Irony
07-11-2012, 11:04 PM
Were I Arizona, I'd ask for Cozart and Frazier, on top of Corcino/ Cingrani and Joseph/ Hoover.

Were I the Reds, I'd probably be tempted to say yes to that, though it'd hurt. A bunch.

The first rule to building a team is to have league average or better at each spot.
The second rule is to have/ find/ be willing to pay for as many difference-makers as payroll allows.

You'd be breaking the first rule, but putting Upton between Votto and Bruce is really, really hard to pass up.

RedlegJake
07-11-2012, 11:27 PM
Were I Arizona, I'd ask for Cozart and Frazier, on top of Corcino/ Cingrani and Joseph/ Hoover.

Were I the Reds, I'd probably be tempted to say yes to that, though it'd hurt. A bunch.

The first rule to building a team is to have league average or better at each spot.
The second rule is to have/ find/ be willing to pay for as many difference-makers as payroll allows.

You'd be breaking the first rule, but putting Upton between Votto and Bruce is really, really hard to pass up.

I'd be tempted but I don't know. But then I look at Gregorius and HRod and think yep, I'd probably do that deal. Much as I'd hate losing those 2 I think the production of HRod and Gregorious would be close and combined with what Upton brings its a better overall team. My only reservation is I think it may punt this season as 2 relatively young kids get pushed and Janish and Rolen take the bulk of this years reps.

mth123
07-12-2012, 05:30 AM
If Texas is offering Profrar and Olt together (not to mention Perez), there's nothing anyone else in baseball can offer that would trump it. Profrar is the best prospect in baseball. Olt is an absolute masher who's improved enough this year to garner some consideration as the top 3B prospect in the game. Perez has been ranked among the highest prospects in the game for four years.

Arizona might want those guys for Upton, but there's absolutely no way Texas is going to offer it. I don't know if they'd offer that for Mike Trout or Harper.

They may not get an offer like that. I'd say if they don't, Upton stays in Arizona. They aren't shopping him and they don't need to trade him. If some one ponies up an offer they can't refuse, they are willing to pull the trigger (as opposed to declaring him untouchable). You want Upton, its going to take some combination of 3 players who play SS, 3B and Starting Pitcher with at least two of those being uber prospects. IMO, Texas, with Olt, Profar and Perez is one of the few organizations that have players like that and have enough at those positions at the major league level to be able to deal them. Given Hamilton's status, Upton makes sense in Texas and with Andrus, Beltre and a host of arms, the Rangers could make an offer like that with little to no impact on the major league product now or even in the mid-term future.

I really have a hard time seeing any combination of prospects that the Reds could put togther to get the D-Backs to pull the trigger. As I said earlier, perhaps a Hamilton, Corcino, Frazier package could do it, but AZ seems to want something more major league ready. Maybe Chapman, Frazier, Gregorious could get it done. A deal for Upton is going to hurt some or Arizona just says no IMO.

OldXOhio
07-12-2012, 09:23 AM
In terms of actual production, Jocketty has received more than he has given up, and it's not even close.
According to b-rWAR, the Reds have had 10.6 WAR worth of production so far (and climbing with Latos and Marshall). The receiving teams have gotten 2.3 WAR.

Good to know, but I wasn't questioning Walt's trade record. I was simply making the point that anyone who thinks we're going to pick up someone of value for a few spare parts is probably living a pipe dream.

RedlegJake
07-12-2012, 09:37 AM
Good to know, but I wasn't questioning Walt's trade record. I was simply making the point that anyone who thinks we're going to pick up someone of value for a few spare parts is probably living a pipe dream.

I sure wouldn't call Frazier and Cozart spare parts?? Or are you talking about the people who think trading a couple of C prospects and someone like Stubbs is going to be enough?

PuffyPig
07-12-2012, 09:40 AM
Were I Arizona, I'd ask for Cozart and Frazier, on top of Corcino/ Cingrani and Joseph/ Hoover.

Were I the Reds, I'd probably be tempted to say yes to that, though it'd hurt. A bunch.



It would certainly make us worse for 2012.

We'd fill a potential hole at LF (though we are getting close to .800 OPS from Ludwick out there), but create huge holes at SS and 3B. Rolen could play a sparatic injury filled .625 OPS at 3B and Valdez could play an acceptable SS while posting a .600 OPS.

Upton better OPS 1.200 to make up the difference this year.

When you are trying to win the pennant you generally don't trade two of your current starters when you have zero depth in those areas.

I'm not saying wither Cozart or Frazier are irreplaceable but the fact is they are not replaceable by us right now.

kaldaniels
07-12-2012, 10:00 AM
In terms of actual production, Jocketty has received more than he has given up, and it's not even close.
According to b-rWAR, the Reds have had 10.6 WAR worth of production so far (and climbing with Latos and Marshall). The receiving teams have gotten 2.3 WAR.

If you don't mind me asking, who is included in the 10.6?

cincrazy
07-12-2012, 10:05 AM
In his article this morning Buster Olney speculated that the Reds could be one of the fits for an Upton deal, but that they'd have to part with Hamilton.

OldXOhio
07-12-2012, 10:08 AM
Or are you talking about the people who think trading a couple of C prospects and someone like Stubbs is going to be enough?

This.

If we've learned one thing over the years, any blockbuster trade is going to look like we gave up too much on the surface.

Bumstead
07-12-2012, 11:10 AM
Upton is the only player available that is worth considering trading Hamilton, plus he fits our needs now and in the long term. He is a star waiting to happen.

Bum

Scrap Irony
07-12-2012, 11:22 AM
Upton and Ellbury, IMO.

mdccclxix
07-12-2012, 01:21 PM
Imagine a scenario where the Reds FO was blabbing about selling off Bruce last season because he was struggling for a stretch and the team was down from the year before. Seems hard to imagine, really. I think Upton will breathe a sigh of relief wherever he goes next. The Dbacks are kind of full of themselves it appears. Every 6 months they're trying to offload one of the premier under 25 players because he's not Joey Votto or something.

Dan
07-12-2012, 01:38 PM
I think Todd Fraziers are much easier to find than are Justin Uptons. I include Frazier in the deal and don't look back.

I'm reluctant to trade anyone that's OPSing north of .900, rookie status and minor league track record not withstanding.

OldXOhio
07-12-2012, 02:14 PM
I'm reluctant to trade anyone that's OPSing north of .900, rookie status and minor league track record not withstanding.

Not me. Sell high.

Benihana
07-12-2012, 02:36 PM
Not me. Sell high.

x2

I can't imagine what a thread or poll would have looked like two months ago if you suggested Todd Frazier as the centerpiece for a Justin Upton trade.

Now people are hesitating at the thought?

I like what Todd has brought the last two months. However it is unlikely he will ever provide plus defense or maintain an OPS north of .850 or even .825 for that matter. Justin Upton is one of the best players in the game under the age of 25. He is two years younger than Frazier and has performed better in the majors over the last four years than Frazier has in the minors. He would be a plus defender in LF and he is under contract for 3 more years.

Most people on this board saw Frazier as a utility guy as recently as two months ago. Buy low and sell high, and I couldn't think of a better opportunity to do that if a deal like this is possible.

And I like Frazier.

Vottomatic
07-12-2012, 03:47 PM
I wonder if playing with Votto would increase Upton's drive to be better? Hmmm.

westofyou
07-12-2012, 03:50 PM
I'm reluctant to trade anyone that's OPSing north of .900, rookie status and minor league track record not withstanding.

Not me

http://premiumsavings65.info/img/cdn.sportsmemorabilia.com/sports-product-image/52-t1209148-500.jpg

camisadelgolf
07-12-2012, 03:53 PM
If you don't mind me asking, who is included in the 10.6?
Wladimir Balentien
Willie Bloomquist
Wilkin Castillo
Jim Edmonds
Ramon Hernandez
J.J. Hoover
Mat Latos
Justin Lehr
Sean Marshall
Nick Masset
Corky Miller
Kris Negron
Micah Owings
Danny Richar
Scott Rolen
Drew Sutton
Wilson Valdez

REDREAD
07-12-2012, 09:53 PM
Were I Arizona, I'd ask for Cozart and Frazier, on top of Corcino/ Cingrani and Joseph/ Hoover.

Were I the Reds, I'd probably be tempted to say yes to that, though it'd hurt. A bunch.

p.

I just don't think that would be worth it for the Reds.. LF would be upgraded, but it blows a huge hole at 3b and SS (I am going to assume Rolen isn't going to get much healthlier this year)..

The Reds are kind of thin on ML quality position players now.. if they are going to upgrade an OF slot, I think it has to be by dealing prospects, not current starters (other than the OFer getting upgraded).

Edit, I realize Frasier is not a superstar.. but if he's traded, are you prepared to have Cairo and an ailing Rolen man 3b the rest of the year? It's a pretty big dropoff. The dropoff at SS would be even worse.
I don't think Upton is a big enough improvement over Ludwick to lose our SS and 3b (even though they aren't exactly stars)

Kc61
07-12-2012, 10:07 PM
I just don't think that would be worth it for the Reds.. LF would be upgraded, but it blows a huge hole at 3b and SS (I am going to assume Rolen isn't going to get much healthlier this year)..

The Reds are kind of thin on ML quality position players now.. if they are going to upgrade an OF slot, I think it has to be by dealing prospects, not current starters (other than the OFer getting upgraded).

Edit, I realize Frasier is not a superstar.. but if he's traded, are you prepared to have Cairo and an ailing Rolen man 3b the rest of the year? It's a pretty big dropoff. The dropoff at SS would be even worse.
I don't think Upton is a big enough improvement over Ludwick to lose our SS and 3b (even though they aren't exactly stars)

Upton is a real upgrade in LF. Ludwick's OBP against righties the last two years is below .300. Ludwick has good power, but he's not in Upton's class.

I'd make this proposed deal. Ludwick then could be packaged in a deal to help cover SS and/or 3B along with Rolen, Valdez, possibly Janish, H Rod, whatever.

Would require more moves, would change the team a bit, but the offense needs the change.

RedEye
07-15-2012, 04:38 PM
Conflicting reports on how likely Upton to the Pirates is right now -- but the two teams seem to be actively engaged in talks as I write this:

Jayson Stark:


#Pirates‬ so serious about Justin Upton they're sending signals they could include Starling Marte in an Upton deal -- but not Cole or Taillon

Jon Heyman:


hearing theres "nothing serious'' w/ j. upton yet, & ‪#pirates‬ "probably not a fit.'' wont include taillon or cole. ‪#dbacks

Brutus
07-15-2012, 05:12 PM
Conflicting reports on how likely Upton to the Pirates is right now -- but the two teams seem to be actively engaged in talks as I write this:

Jayson Stark:



Jon Heyman:

Who's the second team besides Pittsburgh?

757690
07-15-2012, 05:14 PM
Conflicting reports on how likely Upton to the Pirates is right now -- but the two teams seem to be actively engaged in talks as I write this:

Jayson Stark:

Jon Heyman:

I'll always bet on Stark getting the scoop on Heyman.

DGullett35
07-15-2012, 05:17 PM
Who's the second team besides Pittsburgh?

The Rangers?

Brutus
07-15-2012, 06:29 PM
The Rangers?

Is that a question or an answer? lol

RedEye
07-15-2012, 07:52 PM
Who's the second team besides Pittsburgh?

All I meant was the two teams involved in the rumor -- Arizona & Pitt

Brutus
07-15-2012, 08:26 PM
All I meant was the two teams involved in the rumor -- Arizona & Pitt

Oh OK. Thanks for the clarification.

Benihana
07-16-2012, 03:16 PM
The four teams on Upton's no-trade clause are the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Indians according to Rosenthal.

The Reds can probably take on at least $3MM in payroll this year due to increased attendance according to Fay. Upton's prorated payroll impact for this year would be $2MM.*

Make it happen Walt.



* I know he makes $9.5 next year and $14M in 2014, but we can worry about that later.

RedsManRick
07-16-2012, 03:31 PM
* I know he makes $9.5 next year and $14M in 2014, but we can worry about that later.

The only big salary coming off the books is Rolen. The only big arb cases are Bailey and Latos, who will likely eat up the Rolen savings. The only way I can see to make room would be to trade Arroyo -- which if he keeps up the way he's been pitching, should be doable. That would also make room for Chapman in the rotation. How convenient.

REDREAD
07-16-2012, 03:39 PM
Upton is a real upgrade in LF. Ludwick's OBP against righties the last two years is below .300. Ludwick has good power, but he's not in Upton's class.

I'd make this proposed deal. Ludwick then could be packaged in a deal to help cover SS and/or 3B along with Rolen, Valdez, possibly Janish, H Rod, whatever.

Would require more moves, would change the team a bit, but the offense needs the change.

I just don't see how any GM can turn over LF, SS, and 3b between now and the trading deadline and end up with good players in all 3 positions.
Cozart is actually a good SS (especially compared to what we've had in the past).. Likewise, the supply of good 3b is pretty scarce.

I still think the dropoff at SS/3b would more than overshadow the gain of Upton over Ludwick. I agree that Upton is a better player.. however, I don't think it makes sense to trade any of the Reds starting position players for him, other than maybe one of Stubbs/Heisey..
IMO, Cozart is one of the reasons the team is doing better this year.. He's light years better than Janish/Returia was last year. Sure, I'd like his OBP to be better, but he's still on pace to score about 90 runs this year.. that's not horrible from a leadoff man. (Sure, it could be better)

camisadelgolf
07-16-2012, 05:02 PM
The only big salary coming off the books is Rolen. The only big arb cases are Bailey and Latos, who will likely eat up the Rolen savings. The only way I can see to make room would be to trade Arroyo -- which if he keeps up the way he's been pitching, should be doable. That would also make room for Chapman in the rotation. How convenient.
How much of the ~$24M do you think the Reds would need to eat to trade away Arroyo? Even if it's "only" half of that, what team would be willing to give the Reds $12M plus prospects (presumably) for less than a year-and-a-half of Arroyo?

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 06:56 PM
I think Boston might, assuming they go for it this year. (Doubtful as it may seem at this point.) Others who might be interested include Toronto, Baltimore, LA Angels, and maybe Detroit.

Vottomatic
07-16-2012, 07:29 PM
I thought Boston had luxury tax problems with their payroll?

jojo
07-16-2012, 09:00 PM
The only big salary coming off the books is Rolen. The only big arb cases are Bailey and Latos, who will likely eat up the Rolen savings. The only way I can see to make room would be to trade Arroyo -- which if he keeps up the way he's been pitching, should be doable. That would also make room for Chapman in the rotation. How convenient.

Having Rolen fade into the sunset only causes $6.5m to evaporate. The Reds hopefully will make a deep run in the playoffs and bank a big profit windfall that will give them more payroll flexibility going into the offseason.

Benihana
07-16-2012, 09:47 PM
If we were going to trade top prospects in an Upton trade, I'd try to include either Stubbs or Masset to help offset some of the salary going forward. Also a good point that Upton would only cost an incremental 4mm over what Ludwick would cost next year.

camisadelgolf
07-17-2012, 04:03 AM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trade-would-put-justin-upton-in-rare-company/
It's an article that explains how rare it is for players like Upton to be traded.

Dan
07-17-2012, 08:36 AM
I've been on the fence about this deal, and after thinking about it I'd be willing to include Hamilton in a deal. I'd like to see something like:

Stubbs/Hamilton/Sulbaren for Upton but would be willing to substitute Cingrani or Corcino if they would give us a lottery ticket LH pitcher in return.

As far as the every day lineup goes:

2b Phillips
3b Frazier
1b Votto
RF Upton
CF Bruce
LF Ludwick
C Mesigan
SS Cozart

vaticanplum
07-17-2012, 12:48 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trade-would-put-justin-upton-in-rare-company/
It's an article that explains how rare it is for players like Upton to be traded.

The biggest thing I got from that article is: Justin Upton is only 24??

Wow, I haven't been high on him, but that may have swayed me quite a bit. It just feels like he's been around a long time.

dougdirt
07-17-2012, 12:51 PM
The biggest thing I got from that article is: Justin Upton is only 24??

Wow, I haven't been high on him, but that may have swayed me quite a bit. It just feels like he's been around a long time.

He has. He got called up when he was 19.

corkedbat
07-17-2012, 01:56 PM
Madson comes off the books too.