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dougdirt
07-10-2012, 01:22 PM
This guy is not getting much love for the season he is having. Yes, it started off very slow for Dayton, hitting just .186 in 100 at bats. But then he was promoted to Bakersfield. In 216 at bats there, he is hitting .377/.453/.481.

So, what is going on here? Well, there are a few things at work.

First, his BABIP went from .239 (way too low for someone with his speed) to .465 (way too high for anyone). Of course, when someone is hitting .377, you expect their BABIP to be way too high for anyone, because well, guys just don't hit .377.

His walk rate went from 12% in Dayton to 10.6% in Bakersfield, so nothing really there. His strikeout rate went from 19% to 17.6%, so there really isn't too much there either.

Looking at the batted ball types though, there is a huge difference. Line drives are the same rate, but his groundball rate went from 44% in Dayton to 64% in Bakersfield. As we know, groundballs go for hits more often than fly balls do, so that alone would be part of a reason to see a higher average. But when we toss in that Theo Bowe is as fast as anyone in baseball, well, those extra groundballs really mean something for him. While I haven't downloaded the files for the minor league season recently, I imagine that his infield singles rate is rather high, explaining in part, his very high BABIP.

Side note: Earlier today I was doing some video scouting, just getting some times on different players from home to first base. Pulled down a 3.72 on Theo Bowe. That is faster than any time that I have ever gotten (non-bunt). Billy Hamilton has gotten a 3.74 (note that I am using video here at 30 frames per second - so it isn't human error on the times) for the fastest I have ever gotten him at.

kaldaniels
07-10-2012, 01:29 PM
This guy is not getting much love for the season he is having. Yes, it started off very slow for Dayton, hitting just .186 in 100 at bats. But then he was promoted to Bakersfield. In 216 at bats there, he is hitting .377/.453/.481.

So, what is going on here? Well, there are a few things at work.

First, his BABIP went from .239 (way too low for someone with his speed) to .465 (way too high for anyone). Of course, when someone is hitting .377, you expect their BABIP to be way too high for anyone, because well, guys just don't hit .377.

His walk rate went from 12% in Dayton to 10.6% in Bakersfield, so nothing really there. His strikeout rate went from 19% to 17.6%, so there really isn't too much there either.

Looking at the batted ball types though, there is a huge difference. Line drives are the same rate, but his groundball rate went from 44% in Dayton to 64% in Bakersfield. As we know, groundballs go for hits more often than fly balls do, so that alone would be part of a reason to see a higher average. But when we toss in that Theo Bowe is as fast as anyone in baseball, well, those extra groundballs really mean something for him. While I haven't downloaded the files for the minor league season recently, I imagine that his infield singles rate is rather high, explaining in part, his very high BABIP.

Side note: Earlier today I was doing some video scouting, just getting some times on different players from home to first base. Pulled down a 3.72 on Theo Bowe. That is faster than any time that I have ever gotten (non-bunt). Billy Hamilton has gotten a 3.74 (note that I am using video here at 30 frames per second - so it isn't human error on the times) for the fastest I have ever gotten him at.

Wouldn't a 30 frame per second video have a margin of error of +/- .03 (or .015 minimally) seconds?

At least enough margin to not be 100% certain he was faster than Billy? No doubt that is a burning time.

Sorry that post struck a nerve in my math bone.

mace
07-10-2012, 01:35 PM
One thing I've found a bit odd about Bowe is his high rate of getting thrown out stealing. In Bakersfield, he has 34 steals and 19 caughts, which is a problem. Obviously, his stealing is a work in progress, and his improvement in hitting is much more relevant; but at the same time, the advantages of a speed guy are somewhat minimized if he has a hard time swiping a base.

That said, he has become a very interesting guy to follow.

RedlegJake
07-10-2012, 02:43 PM
Bowe obviously has burning speed but he must have a hard tome reading pitchers. I wonder how many of those caughts are pick-offs and how many at the attempted bag?
That can be revealing, too. Anyway that is definitely something he can work on and learn.

Much better to see his hit tool getting better - the ground ball rate is nice to see, although his success on hits will drop as he rises levels and infields get better it still plays to a degree with his speed.

Walk rate isn't improving which concerns me a bit because its fairly low although not terrible. K rate dropped slightly. Hitters league, too, but his numbers are good even for Cal's inflation effects.

What I think will be interesting is to see if he takes Billy's place running wild and leading this team.

RedlegJake
07-10-2012, 02:45 PM
Here's a thought - trade for Peter Bourjos, and bring up Billy and Theo. Fastest outfield in baseball history. Might hit .200 collectively but they'd lead the majors in triples and steals. And Stubbs could back em up. Wow.

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 02:53 PM
Kal, I meant more in terms of human error for the human pushing start a tad to soon/late and stop a tad to soon/late.

kaldaniels
07-10-2012, 04:21 PM
Kal, I meant more in terms of human error for the human pushing start a tad to soon/late and stop a tad to soon/late.

No problem, got it.

Ohayou
07-10-2012, 05:57 PM
How does a slash line of .187/.286/.244 even get you a promotion? :lol:

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 05:59 PM
How does a slash line of .187/.286/.244 even get you a promotion? :lol:

Injuries. Plus, Bowe was clearly better than that slash line was, it just wasn't showing up in the numbers. Clearly he isn't as good as his current slash line is either.

membengal
07-10-2012, 09:50 PM
So...Bowe results, noteworthy. Cingrani results, crap. Got it.

camisadelgolf
07-10-2012, 09:52 PM
So...Bowe results, noteworthy. Cingrani results, crap. Got it.
:deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse:

membengal
07-10-2012, 09:56 PM
Nice deflection, dougdirt defense team. Well done.

camisadelgolf
07-10-2012, 10:01 PM
Nice deflection, dougdirt defense team. Well done.
I'm not on anyone's team.
»I Play by my own rules || GOMEZ « - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFIbhF_Urk)

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 10:02 PM
So...Bowe results, noteworthy. Cingrani results, crap. Got it.

Yep, that is exactly what I said. That Cingrani's results were crap.

Or, like I have done in this thread, I looked at the stats, then looked at the things he was doing to acquire those stats to try and explain some of what was happening.

Theo Bowe is hitting .316 with 46 steals in 74 games this season and no one is talking about him. I started this thread to talk about Theo Bowe, give him some credit and talk about the season he is having. Let's also note, since you can't let it go, that Theo Bowe, despite his numbers this season, isn't in my Reds Top 30 prospects right now (I stopped at 30 guys when compiling my list, so he may be even further back than that). Just wanted to get the guys name out there in case some people hadn't taken notice of the good season that he was having.

membengal
07-10-2012, 10:03 PM
How is what he is doing in terms of babip different than what Phipps did last year? Is there any reason to move the prospect meter on him or is he just a nice story?

And you have flat disregarded or explained away or otherwise dismissed the Cingrani results. For months. But I am glad someone else's results are of interest, I guess, from you.

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 10:28 PM
How is what he is doing in terms of babip different than what Phipps did last year? Is there any reason to move the prospect meter on him or is he just a nice story?

And you have flat disregarded or explained away or otherwise dismissed the Cingrani results. For months. But I am glad someone else's results are of interest, I guess, from you.

There isn't much difference in terms of what Phipps did last year when it comes to the 'explosion', at least when it comes to his time in Bakersfield. For the entire season, he has a .389 BABIP. Which is a lot different than what Phipps did over the full season (.452).

I would say the prospect meter on him is up from where it was coming into the season because he went up a level and has maintained the same peripherals despite better pitching. But it is a nice story, though he hasn't really vaulted into a big prospect status.

With Cingrani, I actually have explained why his stats are outstanding. You either didn't read it or didn't buy my idea. But I will tell you again in case you missed it. He has the best fastball from a Reds minor leaguer I have seen since I started doing this. It is better than the one Chapman had in the minors (at least as a starter). While it isn't overly fast, it is 90-92 with outstanding late sink to it (honestly resembles a change up with tumble on it) that he has pinpoint control of. He can throw a plus pitch exactly where he wants it, 90% of the time. That is an incredible weapon, especially against minor leaguers. However, I have now seen him throw over 30 innings this season and not in one outing have I seen him throw his offspeed stuff to the point where even 50% of it was considered a good pitch. But, at this level, he can get away with it because his #1 is simply that good.

Buy it or not, I don't really care. But that is where I sit with regards to how Cingrani has put up incredible stats, but still isn't an elite starting pitching prospect.

camisadelgolf
07-10-2012, 10:49 PM
So . . . how about that Bowe guy?

dougdirt
07-10-2012, 10:54 PM
So . . . how about that Bowe guy?

Very, very fast. Despite all of that speed, he does get caught an awful lot. Like Hamilton last year, if Bowe could improve his contact rate a little bit more, he might be able to push his status up some more (not saying he is going to be Hamilton like, Hamilton is a better athlete with better overall tools).

The Operator
07-10-2012, 10:54 PM
Okay guys, let's have everyone take a step back and cool down a bit.

Looks like things are getting a bit personal in this thread and we certainly don't want that.

Plus Plus
07-11-2012, 09:46 AM
Okay guys, let's have everyone take a step back and cool down a bit.

Looks like things are getting a bit personal in this thread and we certainly don't want that.

...And in other threads, as well.

Debating or asking questions about opinions that people have about certain players is one thing, deliberately redirecting threads to become cross-examinations of posters is another. This has happened in threads about Billy Hamilton, Tony Cingriani, and now Theo Bowe (as well as on the ORG about Stubbs- again).

As The Operator has said, leave the personal stuff at the door.

RED VAN HOT
07-11-2012, 01:45 PM
The reason he was not being appreciated before this year is: 1) low round pick (21), 2) under sized (5' 9''), 3) outfielder w/o power (2 HR in 602 AB), and 4) four lackluster seasons (.256 BA).

It is nice that he is turning it around. Obviously, the Reds see potential there that many of us have overlooked. I suspect that he is being pushed to steal bases at a higher clip because that is the area of his perceived value.

As steroids have been withdrawn from the game, there has been a commensurate increase in emphasis on pitching, defense, and speed. The more balls that remain in the park, the more important player speed becomes. It plays well on both offense and defense. Ten years ago, I doubt that organizations would have had the patience to continue developing an outfielder with so little pop in his bat. With recent shifts in the game, cultivating some slap hitters with plus plus speed and good OBP has become a more attractive proposition.

As an aside, the Reds reported interest in Juan Pierre follows this same line of thought, a renewed understanding of the need to manufacture runs to beat good pitchers in close games. Along those lines, Billy Hamilton may just turn out to be a human run factory. The things to watch with Bowe are improvement in SB success rate, and further improvement in BB/K ratio and OBP.