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Raisor
07-15-2012, 03:31 PM
Premise:

More then one person has stated that switching the lineup around to get Cozart and Stubbs out of the top of the lineup would not have much of an effect on runs scoring. I tend to think that it would have an effect on run scoring, I just don't know how much.

What I've done:

First thing I did was find out how many PA's the Reds are likely to have remaining in the season per spot in the order. I took the last two seasons (2010 and 2011) and averaged out the PAs

According to this, here's what I came up with the number of PA's remaining per lineup spot.
1. 364
2. 363.5
3. 354.5
4. 343.5
5. 334
6. 325.5
7. 324.5
8. 314

Next, I figured out the Runs Created (per ESPN Reds home page sortable stats) per PA of the players involved. I've combined Mes and Hanigan into one Catcher since I don't see the Catcher Rotation changing.

Then I figured our how many Runs would be created using what I feel is the most likely lineup Dusty would be using for the rest of the season.

Player rc/pa pa runs created
1. Cozart 0.108 364 39.5
2. Stubbs 0.098 363.5 35.9
3. Votto 0.214 354.5 76
4. Phillips 0.124 343.5 42.8
5. Bruce 0.154 334 51.4
6. Ludwick 0.134 32.5 43.7
7. Rolen/Fraz 0.126 324.5 40.9
8. Catchers 0.107 314 33.9

Total Runs Created 364.1

Then I figured out how many runs would be created using my prefered lineup.

1. Phillips 0.124 45.1
2. Bruce 0.154 55.9
3. Votto 0.214 76
4. Frazier 0.167 57.4
5. Ludwick 0.135 44.8
6. Cozart 0.108 35.2
7. Catchers 0.107 34.7
8. Stubbs 0.098 30.8

Total Runs Created 379.9

Difference 15.8 RC

I know this is taking a LOT at face value. Is making the change I advocate worth the extra 16 runs, or would it screw up the chemistry?

I would do it. Moving the deck chairs would be worth about 1.5 games over the rest of the season.

Thoughts?

oregonred
07-15-2012, 03:35 PM
The kind of analysis you just did would probably blow up Dusty's Commodore 64 lineup generator :)

westofyou
07-15-2012, 03:45 PM
Play around with it here

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py