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View Full Version : Do the Reds really need to make a trade?



Captain Hook
07-15-2012, 05:44 PM
I'm sure I'm in the minority here but I really like this team.Stubbs is the only guy I wouldn't mind seeing go but even he has enough talent and youth on his side for me to believe he deserves a roster spot.I would like to see Heisey in CF more with Ludwick getting the bulk of PT in LF.Other then that I don't see another team out there I like better position for postion in the NL.

I know this isn't nearly as fun as discussing endless trade possibilities but I was just wondering if there's anyone else out there that feels the same.

Oxilon
07-15-2012, 05:53 PM
At the very least, I hope they acquire some bench/role players via trade.

RedEye
07-15-2012, 06:01 PM
Yes

DGullett35
07-15-2012, 06:06 PM
I wouldnt be surprised if we didnt do anything. Id like a LH bat off the bench too at least

MikeS21
07-15-2012, 06:10 PM
The starters I would not change (perhaps start Mesoraco a day or two more per week). Let Ludwick play LF.

It would be nice to pick up a couple LH bats off the bench.

kbrake
07-15-2012, 06:28 PM
Leadoff really needs to be addressed. And I don't see a real viable option in house.

Always Red
07-15-2012, 06:29 PM
Maybe.

I'd start, right now, with Phillips at lead off, Ludwick playing full time for now (ride the hot hand) in LF and batting cleanup, and Heisey and Stubbs splitting time in CF.

See how it goes for the next week or so, working on deals all the while. I would hate to give up a ton for a rental or an older guy like Pierre (who admittedly does have on base skills)

HokieRed
07-15-2012, 06:34 PM
Not if it involves moving a member of the rotation, which is the key to this team. That said, I'd love to see a LH bat or two--but not at the expense of any of rotation.

vic715
07-15-2012, 06:37 PM
Gotta have a lefthanded bat and I would get the best reliever out there whoever he is.

dfs
07-15-2012, 06:50 PM
The starters I would not change (perhaps start Mesoraco a day or two more per week). Let Ludwick play LF.

I think the Hannigan/Mesoraco arrangement is going just fine.

Ludwick in left is looking better every day.

WVRedsFan
07-15-2012, 06:55 PM
Yes. Leadoff is a given and bench is a problem. If we want to the Reds to be there at the end, we must have offense. Too many games that go down to the wire with a 2-1 lead, or something similar.

JaxRed
07-15-2012, 07:08 PM
We still have some players in the minors... so Walt needs to make trades to get rid of them. :laugh:

The Voice of IH
07-15-2012, 07:26 PM
Leadoff really needs to be addressed. And I don't see a real viable option in house.

I'm sure this discussion has occurred one or two times on this site, but what about Brandon Phillips.

I would love for the Reds to go grab a power bat to stick in left or center field to be the four hitter. Moving BP to lead off would be great for the team, and the acquired trade could kill two birds with one stone.

mth123
07-15-2012, 07:48 PM
The Reds really have no help on the way from the DL or the minor leagues this year. Other teams are getting guys back or have kids coming and other teams will be making deals as well. Even if you are comfortable with how the Reds match-up with other contenders, the bar is about to go up. Where the Reds rank at this point shouldn't get anyone too comfortable. The competition will all be improving.

IMO, the is team needs to acquire 2 players. One is a LH bat to lead-off and keep Stubbs on the bench vs RHP (or send Stubbs out of town completely in the deal). The other is a LH PH. One of Stubbs or Heisey probbaly needs to go and I'd guess Cairo and Rolen would take turns hanging out on the DL to make room on the bench.

1990REDS
07-15-2012, 08:12 PM
I'm sure this discussion has occurred one or two times on this site, but what about Brandon Phillips.

I would love for the Reds to go grab a power bat to stick in left or center field to be the four hitter. Moving BP to lead off would be great for the team, and the acquired trade could kill two birds with one stone.

Agreed. If we go get a leadoff guy we are still left with Phillips in the cleanup spot where I dont think is the best place for him. Get a power bat and put Phillips at leadoff. You fill 2 needs while only acquiring 1 player. Honestly I really wouldnt care if the reds decided to just move Phillips to leadoff and let Ludwig or Frazier hit cleanup.

cinreds21
07-15-2012, 08:29 PM
My question more so is say if we do get a bench bat (like Kotsay) who do we get rid of on our current bench?

Scrap Irony
07-15-2012, 08:44 PM
My question more so is say if we do get a bench bat (like Kotsay) who do we get rid of on our current bench?

Phillips 2B
Cozart SS
Votto 1B
Ludwick LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Mesigan C
Heisey/ Stubbs CF

If Phillips goes to leadoff and Ludwick to cleanup (which makes all the sense in the world), Heisey/ Stubbs can move down to a spot that won't kill the order. Too, Heisey will be forced a bit to add obp (as pitchers will work around him often to get to the pitcher's spot), while Stubbs could use his speed more often.

If you add a LH OF bat like Kotsay, I'd imagine that the Heisey/ Stubbs loser would either be dealt or go to AAA. (Both, IIRC, still have options.) Valdez has shown Baker he can play CF adequately, while Rolen, Kotsay, and Cairo provide veteran influence.

(I really like Rolen off the bench. He's been outstanding as a PH throughout his career and can play defense late at the hot corner. He can also start a day or two a week and not hurt you all that much.)

Ghosts of 1990
07-15-2012, 08:45 PM
A guy like Headley really makes sense I feel like....

Patrick Bateman
07-15-2012, 08:46 PM
They don't "need" to do annything.

I mean, the Reds probably have about a 40-50% chance at the playoffs (in consideration of the two WC spots). From there, who knows.

At the same time, there are some obvious deficiencies on the roster, and if the Reds want to have the best team of anyone in making the WS, improvements would help. They also don't guarantee anything, and also, only provide a minimal upgrade in chance (unless a real star is acquired).

I'm fine with the Reds only making trades if they get fair value back, otherwise, the extra cost likely isn't worth it.

RedlegJake
07-16-2012, 12:19 AM
I still think they have to improve the OBP in at least one of the top 2 spots whether that's BP at leadoff and Ludwick to cleanup or a trade but that situation is going to bite them, especially on the road.

Captain Hook
07-16-2012, 02:06 AM
So far I haven't seen anyone that really agrees with me.No surprise but seems odd that a team with a rock solid rotation, a very good BP from top to bottom, average to above average defense at every postion to go along with offensive production that is equally good and one of the best records in baseball still needs to be improved in the eyes of just about everyone.

That's cool.:cool:

reds44
07-16-2012, 02:21 AM
Yes.

Superdude
07-16-2012, 02:35 AM
I'm pretty much done with Stubbs as a starting center fielder and wouldn't mind shoring up that hole, but I like where this team is at. Don't really see a need to cash out the minor league system considering this is already a likely playoff team. Lineup tweaking is way past due though.

WVRedsFan
07-16-2012, 02:47 AM
I'm pretty much done with Stubbs as a starting center fielder and wouldn't mind shoring up that hole, but I like where this team is at. Don't really see a need to cash out the minor league system considering this is already a likely playoff team. Lineup tweaking is way past due though.

Word

cincinnati chili
07-16-2012, 03:14 AM
It would be irresponsible not to upgrade the outfield bats if good deals are available. Pitching staffs don't come along like this very often. For all we know, Cueto and Chapman could blow out their arms next year.

Headley makes sense (can play 3B and LF; has excellent OBP outside of Petco the last 2 years.). If Dexter Fowler is available, go all in. Hamilton. Stephenson. Cingrani. Whatever it takes.

I don't think it makes sense to jerk with the chemistry if we're only going to get a Juan Pierre or a Scott podsednik. And Victorino has been bad this year too.

mth123
07-16-2012, 10:10 AM
I still think they have to improve the OBP in at least one of the top 2 spots whether that's BP at leadoff and Ludwick to cleanup or a trade but that situation is going to bite them, especially on the road.

I want both. I'd like to see Dejesus, Span or even Will Venable as a stop gap in CF who can lead-off against RHP (I'd let Stubbs play and lead-off against lefty pitching) and I want Ludwick hitting 4th with Phillips in the 2 hole. The bottom of the order would include the 3B contingent (Rolen, Frazier) Cozart and the catchers. Personally I'd go Frazier, Catchers, Cozart. When Rolen plays, I'd go Catchers, Rolen, Cozart.

REDREAD
07-16-2012, 10:46 AM
It would be nice to at least get a LH bat for the bench..

Would you guys be willing to send Frasier and a couple of B prospects to SD for Headley? If SD likes Frasier (big assumption, I don't know), maybe that's doable.. The problem is, the Reds want to give Rolen a chance to play and Ludwick really doesn't deserve to be benched.

With CF the really only obvious place to upgrade (maybe SS too?) I think it's going to be difficult to find a fit.

Walt made the comment about upgrading pitching. I wonder if Homer will be traded for a better pitcher who has left time left on his contract?

Anyhow, I guess I don't think the Reds NEED to make a trade. I think they make the playoffs even if they do stand pat. It would be nice to make a trade, but options to get more OBP out of CF/SS are limited.

Kc61
07-16-2012, 10:50 AM
When you get great pitching it masks all other problems. The Reds have had phenomenal pitching in the last few weeks. It makes offensive issues seem less important.

In the playoffs, or against top teams down the stretch, the Reds will be facing high level pitching. The ability to score runs will become more important.

The team, as currently, constructed, has an offense that is strong in the power department and strong against LHP. The team is weaker in the OBP department and against RHP.

So, yes, the team does need to make changes in the offense. Two left handed bats on the team is not a good mix. So few high OBP players on the team does not provide for a good mix.

Exactly who gets traded, what positions get upgraded, depends on availability of players for trade. But we shouldn't be fooled by the current hot streak. The team should make a trade or two to fix the offensive deficiencies.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 10:57 AM
It would be irresponsible not to upgrade the outfield bats if good deals are available. Pitching staffs don't come along like this very often. For all we know, Cueto and Chapman could blow out their arms next year.

I agree.

If Heisey is the CF, the OF bats average out to slightly better than league average. Heisey has improved to a 90 OPS+ this season, Ludwick's a 107 OPS+, and Bruce has a 116 OPS+.

Heisey's history indicates he'll end up just better than league average offensively, as he has a career OPS+ of 102. In CF, that has some value. (By comparison, Stubbs' career OPS+ is 91.)

I'm great with Fowler or Ellsbury or another CF who's a difference-maker offensively and absolutely believe that the Reds could use that.

But let's not make a deal just to make a deal.

M2
07-16-2012, 11:00 AM
It's time the Reds gave Dusty what he's always wanted: a CF who can actually hit leadoff. If that happens I see no reason why the Reds can't win the World Series.

Vottomatic
07-22-2012, 10:07 AM
If the asking price is as ridiculous as the trade rumors suggest, then I'm fine standing pat and waiting until the offseason to address needs, when the asking price usually is more fair. The deadline acts like an extortion tactic. No need to overpay.

HokieRed
07-22-2012, 10:11 AM
Just keep the rotation intact.

redsmetz
07-22-2012, 10:45 AM
They don't "need" to do annything.

I mean, the Reds probably have about a 40-50% chance at the playoffs (in consideration of the two WC spots). From there, who knows.

At the same time, there are some obvious deficiencies on the roster, and if the Reds want to have the best team of anyone in making the WS, improvements would help. They also don't guarantee anything, and also, only provide a minimal upgrade in chance (unless a real star is acquired).

I'm fine with the Reds only making trades if they get fair value back, otherwise, the extra cost likely isn't worth it.

Overall, I don't disagree with your assessment of things, but do disagree with your projection of the odds they make the playoffs. That struck me as extraordinarily low given the current standings. Forty to fifty percent would be an epic collapse, which is not unprecedented, but still rare. And more so given the new play off structure, as you yourself noted.

I went and looked at what the odds makers are saying and one site I found had the Reds chances of making the playoffs at 87.6% through Friday's game. Of course, none of us want just "making the playoffs." So whatever weaknesses there are, ought to be address. Like you, I'm not interested in overpaying though. And I like how this club is gelling presently.

I'd set myself in the camp that we don't need to make a move, but if one comes around that strengthens the club at a price that isn't damaging later, I'd go for it.

But we have very good chances of making the playoffs as things now stand. My mantra these days is, let's just win games and let the rest take care of itself.

BTW, here's the site I was looking at. Not sure how to translate some of what's there: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html

mth123
07-22-2012, 01:14 PM
If the asking price is as ridiculous as the trade rumors suggest, then I'm fine standing pat and waiting until the offseason to address needs, when the asking price usually is more fair. The deadline acts like an extortion tactic. No need to overpay.

Its July 22nd. That price will probably come down. The Twins need arms and its probably not realistic for them to have both Revere and Span in the starting OF. 4 of the top 5 prospects in their system are also OF with a couple being CF types. If they can get a young arm and re-purpose Span's money, it would be well worth it for them. IMO, they are just holding out for more hoping some team overpays to get a jump on the competition. I'd give them the choice of Hoover or Lotzkar along with a lesser position prospect, maybe Soto. They could have Heisey instead, but I'm not sure why they'd want him.

WVRedsFan
07-22-2012, 01:50 PM
Overall, I don't disagree with your assessment of things, but do disagree with your projection of the odds they make the playoffs. That struck me as extraordinarily low given the current standings. Forty to fifty percent would be an epic collapse, which is not unprecedented, but still rare. And more so given the new play off structure, as you yourself noted.

I went and looked at what the odds makers are saying and one site I found had the Reds chances of making the playoffs at 87.6% through Friday's game. Of course, none of us want just "making the playoffs." So whatever weaknesses there are, ought to be address. Like you, I'm not interested in overpaying though. And I like how this club is gelling presently.

I'd set myself in the camp that we don't need to make a move, but if one comes around that strengthens the club at a price that isn't damaging later, I'd go for it.

But we have very good chances of making the playoffs as things now stand. My mantra these days is, let's just win games and let the rest take care of itself.

BTW, here's the site I was looking at. Not sure how to translate some of what's there: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.htmlOver on espn.go.com, they have the Reds with a 78.6% chance of making the playoffs and the Pirates 79.6%. I don't know who does this over there, but it was eye-opening.

_Sir_Charles_
07-22-2012, 01:52 PM
Over on espn.go.com, they have the Reds with a 78.6% chance of making the playoffs and the Pirates 79.6%. I don't know who does this over there, but it was eye-opening.

The pirates have quite a few more home games left than we do. I'm pretty sure the edge is due to the scheduling.

Reds: 33 home, 35 away. Oppon. win % .461
Pirates: 36 home, 33 away. Oppon. win % .467

http://espn.go.com/mlb/huntforoctober

They've got a similar situation for the AL central too.

Benihana
07-22-2012, 02:21 PM
I think the Reds' playoff odds are much closer to 75% than they are to 40-50%.

I also think it's interesting that Cafardo says the interest in Upton has been surprisingly not as high as some would expect. That, coupled with the fact that the asking price for Span is reportedly so high, makes me hope even more the Reds pursue Upton over Span, even if it requires a higher price in terms of talent.

For instance, I'd rather give up two Pensacola pitchers for Upton than one for Span. At this point, however, I'd probably rather hold on to Hamilton than trade him for either.

mth123
07-22-2012, 02:26 PM
I think the Reds' playoff odds are much closer to 75% than they are to 40-50%.

I also think it's interesting that Cafardo says the interest in Upton has been surprisingly not as high as some would expect. That, coupled with the fact that the asking price for Span is reportedly so high, makes me hope even more the Reds pursue Upton over Span, even if it requires a higher price in terms of talent.

For instance, I'd rather give up two Pensacola pitchers for Upton than one for Span. At this point, however, I'd probably rather hold on to Hamilton than trade him for either.

You're not going to get Upton for Corcino and Cingrani. Add Hamilton and Didi and you might get them to listen.

corkedbat
07-22-2012, 03:12 PM
I don't know that the Reds "must" make a deal, but at the very least they should be looking for a veteran LH bat for the bench (Kotsay?) and/or a table setter ahead of Votto who can reach base at a .340 clip or better and replace or platoon with Stubbs in CF (Span or Fowler).

HokieRed
07-22-2012, 03:26 PM
What I'd like to see them do is 1. Accept the inevitable conclusion about Drew Stubbs. If he must play, he must bat 8th and the rest of the lineup has to be good enough to make that acceptable. Otherwise keep him as a 5th outfielder or try to get something for him; 2. Install Heisey as the everyday CF and see what he can do; 3. Avoid the overpay for Span; 4. Pick up a left-handed bat without trading any credible minor league stater with the possible exception of Villareal

GriffeyFan
07-22-2012, 03:33 PM
The Reds can win the division with what they have but in order to advance in the playoffs and win the World Series, I think they definitely need to add a power bat to go behind Votto. If they can do that, Phillips can move to leadoff.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2012, 08:02 PM
To answer the OP, depends on what you want. If your goal is to merely make the playoffs then probably not. If your goal is to win in the playoffs with hopes of winning it all (which is what my hope is every year) then you damn well better make some moves. And frankly given the rise of Washington & the inevitable rise of L.A. in years to come, now will be a far smoother road to the World Series for the window of this current Reds unit.

It's time Walt and company go all in IMO. And that means at least 1 if not 2 bats and possibly even a decent starting arm that can pitch out of the pen as well, we have no depth should one go down or one become volatile (like Arroyo) or worn out (Homer or Leake). Homer for example only pitched 132 innings last year (a career high) and he is already at 120.1. Considering the Verducci effect he might have to be shut down after 160 or so. But even if Walt and the boys decide to ignore that rule can you see them allowing arguably our 3rd best arm to go 200?

Then there is the matchups. Most of which require more offense themselves. The Nats smoked us and they aren't gonna be easy to beat with those arms and Davey Johnson. The Giants will be tough. If the Braves get another arm they might be the team to beat. LA, Pittsburgh etc. We need some offense to gain an edge. Guys who give us balance, some contact ability and discipline.

Superdude
07-22-2012, 08:19 PM
To answer the OP, depends on what you want. If your goal is to merely make the playoffs then probably not. If your goal is to win in the playoffs with hopes of winning it all (which is what my hope is every year) then you damn well better make some moves. And frankly given the rise of Washington & the inevitable rise of L.A. in years to come, now will be a far smoother road to the World Series for the window of this current Reds unit.

Edgar Renteria hit .412 and was named the World Series MVP two years ago. The freakin' Cardinals won last year on a wildcard. Outside of top tier pitching, which I believe we have, the playoffs are still a crapshoot. This team's success is almost solely on the back of the farm system, so I personally hope we don't abandon that mentality for the sake of marginally improving our world series chances.

DGullett35
07-22-2012, 11:27 PM
Over on espn.go.com, they have the Reds with a 78.6% chance of making the playoffs and the Pirates 79.6%. I don't know who does this over there, but it was eye-opening.

Its at 80% for the Reds and 82% for the Buccos now. Must have something to do with how many home games each team have left and so forth.

Vottomatic
07-22-2012, 11:35 PM
[QUOTE=Superdude;2672917] Outside of top tier pitching, which I believe we have.....QUOTE]

And Travieso pitched a no-hitter in his debut tonight.

Okay, so it was only 1 inning. LOL. But no hits, no walks and 1 K. I thought he'd pitch longer than that. :D

GullyFoyle
07-22-2012, 11:58 PM
I believe the discrepancy between the Bucs and Reds is that they currently hold the tie breaker in the head to head record with the Reds.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2012, 11:59 PM
Edgar Renteria hit .412 and was named the World Series MVP two years ago. The freakin' Cardinals won last year on a wildcard. Outside of top tier pitching, which I believe we have, the playoffs are still a crapshoot. This team's success is almost solely on the back of the farm system, so I personally hope we don't abandon that mentality for the sake of marginally improving our world series chances.

The Cards won because they were the team best suited to win in the playoffs, they weren't that much of a surprise to me, well except the resurgence of that pen in the 2nd half & playoffs. We are not that team yet, we need improvements. Part of the reasoning for building a strong minor league system is to trade from it to improve the major league product. St. Louis did it, It's time the Reds do just that.

Superdude
07-23-2012, 12:09 AM
[QUOTE=Superdude;2672917] Outside of top tier pitching, which I believe we have.....QUOTE]

And Travieso pitched a no-hitter in his debut tonight.

Okay, so it was only 1 inning. LOL. But no hits, no walks and 1 K. I thought he'd pitch longer than that. :D

I guess he's being groomed as a closer. I don't think that was the plan, but after Abel De Los Madson and Nick Mascot went down, the writing was on the wall. Somebody's gotta slam the door to appease that rabid Arizona League fan base!

AmarilloRed
07-23-2012, 12:12 AM
No, they don't need to make a trade. I think you pull the trigger if you can make a trade that will benefit the team without trading away too much, but I think it's unlikely that will happen before the deadline.