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cincrazy
07-15-2012, 10:59 PM
This series, and in particular this game tonight, was a shining example of what Dusty does best. He left Homer in for a big 8th, stuck with him when the first two guys got on, and Homer came through. That can't help but build his confidence, right? What a huge moment for Bailey. Ends up getting the W as well.

Also, he gives Scotty the start tonight. Continues to stick by him, when most of us wouldn't. And Rolen rewarded that faith with the game-winning hit.

Say what you will about the man and his strategic ability (I know I've said my share), but tonight was a great example of why his players love to play for him.

Nathan
07-15-2012, 11:13 PM
Could've gone either way, really. Had Bailey blown up at that point, and Rolen not gotten that single up the middle, and the Cards won, I'm sure this place would've exploded negatively as opposed to positively. That's what winning does.

Great win, great series!

paulrichjr
07-15-2012, 11:37 PM
I have to give Dusty credit. I would have pulled Homer for sure. He had faith in him and wow did he deliver. I would have never started Rolen. I would have probabably pitched someone besides Chapman because he usually doesn't do as well pitching 3 straight games. Dusty tonight we celebrate your genius. Tomorrow we curse you.

757690
07-16-2012, 12:51 AM
I predict this will be a very short thread, lol.

Homer Bailey
07-16-2012, 12:55 AM
Just because the results worked out for Dusty doesn't make it a good decision. I'm not even saying necessarily it was a bad decision to leave Homer in, but more often then not, this sort of event just reinforces Dusty's poor decision making because he can point and say "well it worked that time."

The decision to let Rolen hit, who is one of the worst hitters on the Reds, if not the worst, was obviously a poor decision. That being said, Dusty would never disrespect Rolen and pinch hit for him, and I can't really blame him for that. But the fact that Rolen got a hit does not make it a good (baseball) decision to have let him him.

Tonight was not Dusty "at his best". Tonight was Dusty when everything worked out for him.

westofyou
07-16-2012, 01:39 AM
Even after a sweep against the Cardinals Dusty can't catch a break here, it's almost comical how he has become the clown in the dunking booth at this carnival.

Big Klu
07-16-2012, 01:57 AM
Even after a sweep against the Cardinals Dusty can't catch a break here, it's almost comical how he has become the clown in the dunking booth at this carnival.

I'm with you. Dusty either makes bad decisions or lucky decisions. There are no other options.

powersackers
07-16-2012, 02:21 AM
The last two negative posts are basically saying luck and bad decisions are responsible for the 4th best record in baseball. 6 wins in a row and first place in a tight division and not one ounce of credit is given to the man who pulls the strings? Laughable.

Brutus
07-16-2012, 02:35 AM
Just because the results worked out for Dusty doesn't make it a good decision. I'm not even saying necessarily it was a bad decision to leave Homer in, but more often then not, this sort of event just reinforces Dusty's poor decision making because he can point and say "well it worked that time."

The decision to let Rolen hit, who is one of the worst hitters on the Reds, if not the worst, was obviously a poor decision. That being said, Dusty would never disrespect Rolen and pinch hit for him, and I can't really blame him for that. But the fact that Rolen got a hit does not make it a good (baseball) decision to have let him him.

Tonight was not Dusty "at his best". Tonight was Dusty when everything worked out for him.

I think some would suggest tonight is why Dusty is better than he's given credit for. It's these types of decisions that reinforce why players love playing for him so much, because he's loyal and respectful and that often squeezes out the production they're capable of.

I'm not going to lie, I had a terrible feeling about Homer going out for the 8th inning. But to be fair, he was coming off a quick inning and was only at 90 pitches, so it did somewhat make sense for him to go back out. I just didn't expect it to end well. Nonetheless, it did work out and Dusty showed a lot of faith in Homer and Homer delivered.

I disagree about Rolen completely. I want to get Frazier more at-bats, but I don't think you yank Rolen in that situation.

AtomicDumpling
07-16-2012, 04:07 AM
Even after a sweep against the Cardinals Dusty can't catch a break here, it's almost comical how he has become the clown in the dunking booth at this carnival.

It's not like he just became the clown this weekend. He has been considered by many if not most people around baseball as a clown since long before he even came to Cincinnati, so a sweep of the 3rd place Cardinals is not likely to change that. One series is not going to change peoples' opinions of the guy after several years of watching him.

As I have said before I think he is an average manager. He does some things well and some things poorly. He hasn't been the disaster that many people expected when he first came here. He is a good old-fashioned "by the book" manager. If you like that style of manager then you will like Dusty. If you would like to see some innovation then you are going to be disappointed.

Dusty's moves have certainly worked out well lately in this six game winning streak. :thumbup:

Brutus
07-16-2012, 04:22 AM
It's not like he just became the clown this weekend. He has been considered by many if not most people around baseball as a clown since long before he even came to Cincinnati, so a sweep of the 3rd place Cardinals is not likely to change that. One series is not going to change peoples' opinions of the guy after several years of watching him.

As I have said before I think he is an average manager. He does some things well and some things poorly. He hasn't been the disaster that many people expected when he first came here. He is a good old-fashioned "by the book" manager. If you like that style of manager then you will like Dusty. If you would like to see some innovation then you are going to be disappointed.

Dusty's moves have certainly worked out well lately in this six game winning streak. :thumbup:

Who is this "most" you speak of? He's in the top 80 all-time in managerial win percentage which is in the upper 90 percentile of all managers. Clearly he's done something right.

Clowns don't typically last 20+ years with a winning record.

Tom Servo
07-16-2012, 04:52 AM
If you would like to see some innovation then you are going to be disappointed.

As are the fans of almost every single MLB team.

MikeS21
07-16-2012, 07:49 AM
It all boils down to one thing: Dusty will have a major league managerial job as long as he wishes to manage. Even if the Reds did dump him, another team would offer him a manager's position next year, with three or four more teams standing in line to talk to him.

And meanwhile, none of Dusty's critics here on RedsZone, who second guess every decision he makes, will ever get a phone call asking them to manage ANY pro team. Perhaps we ought to just "keep our mouths shut" and leave the managing "to the professionals."

cumberlandreds
07-16-2012, 08:10 AM
The Reds have and could do much worse than Dusty. Some things he does I don't like but overall he's better than average manager. He's done quite well for 20 years. Bad managers don't stick around for 20 years.

I'll add to mine in saying Dusty is really good at handling the personalities on a team. In the 21st century that is very important. You can't treat everyone the same like in days gone by. Those manager that do aren't around very long. I do like the way he brings along young players. He normally doesn't throw them into the water to sink or swim. He will also stick with them a little longer than most. Which in most cases is good.

AtomicDumpling
07-16-2012, 08:13 AM
Who is this "most" you speak of? He's in the top 80 all-time in managerial win percentage which is in the upper 90 percentile of all managers. Clearly he's done something right.

Clowns don't typically last 20+ years with a winning record.

My post was addressing the statement someone made that people were forming the opinion that Dusty was a clown based on this weekend's sweep of the Cardinals. My point was that the folks who think Dusty is a clown had formed that opinion long before this weekend. I wasn't defending the notion that he is a clown. As I very clearly stated in my earlier post that you misunderstood, Dusty is an average, ho-hum, middle of the road manager in my opinion.

The "most" I speak of is of course the majority of pundits and insiders in baseball. Surely this is not news to you. They may be right or they may be wrong but that is the prevailing opinion around baseball. This didn't just crop up this weekend.

Not too hard to have a good record when you have been fortunate enough to manage the most dominant player in the major leagues since Babe Ruth. Maybe you think Dusty Baker is the reason Barry Bonds was so good? ;)

Was Joe Torre a great manager or was he just along for the ride on those $200 million payroll Yankees teams? Winning percentage only tells a small part of the story when judging a manager.

Dusty has been fortunate enough to manage some star-studded teams that under-performed expectations and generated him a lot of bad press. I think much of it was undeserved, but it has definitely affected his reputation around the league.

I didn't say my opinion is that Dusty is a clown, quite the contrary. I said he was average. I am not enthused about settling for average. I think the Reds should try to get one of the best managers.

BCubb2003
07-16-2012, 08:29 AM
Who would we consider to be most innovative managers of today? Joe Maddon seems to be the hot name. What does he do differently?

The most innovative manager of recent times may be Tony LaRussa.

Raisor
07-16-2012, 08:44 AM
It all boils down to one thing: Dusty will have a major league managerial job as long as he wishes to manage. Even if the Reds did dump him, another team would offer him a manager's position next year, with three or four more teams standing in line to talk to him.

And meanwhile, none of Dusty's critics here on RedsZone, who second guess every decision he makes, will ever get a phone call asking them to manage ANY pro team. Perhaps we ought to just "keep our mouths shut" and leave the managing "to the professionals."

Isn't this pretty close to the "if tou haven't done it, you shouuldnt be critical" line of thinking?

If that's the case, why not just shut down RZ now? Complaining about managers has been around for 140 years and will far outlive all of us.

And I thought Dusty managed the game very well last night, except for trying to make it harder on himself to start the game.

westofyou
07-16-2012, 09:11 AM
It's not like he just became the clown this weekend. He has been considered by many if not most people around baseball as a clown since long before he even came to Cincinnati, so a sweep of the 3rd place Cardinals is not likely to change that. One series is not going to change peoples' opinions of the guy after several years of watching him.

As I have said before I think he is an average manager. He does some things well and some things poorly. He hasn't been the disaster that many people expected when he first came here. He is a good old-fashioned "by the book" manager. If you like that style of manager then you will like Dusty. If you would like to see some innovation then you are going to be disappointed.

Dusty's moves have certainly worked out well lately in this six game winning streak. :thumbup:

I was in San Francisco during his whole tenure, you're wrong about him being considered a fool long ago, it's a 21st century thing that started during the fire Joe Morgan era

Hoosier Red
07-16-2012, 09:35 AM
It's not like he just became the clown this weekend. He has been considered by many if not most people around baseball as a clown since long before he even came to Cincinnati, so a sweep of the 3rd place Cardinals is not likely to change that. One series is not going to change peoples' opinions of the guy after several years of watching him.

As I have said before I think he is an average manager. He does some things well and some things poorly. He hasn't been the disaster that many people expected when he first came here. He is a good old-fashioned "by the book" manager. If you like that style of manager then you will like Dusty. If you would like to see some innovation then you are going to be disappointed.

Dusty's moves have certainly worked out well lately in this six game winning streak. :thumbup:

I also think that his moves (good and bad) have some meaning in the clubhouse beyond just the one game. If the 8th inning had blown up on Homer, 1) He'd still know that the manager's got his back, and 2)He'd suffer no blowback because all the blame would go to Dusty.

Do you honestly think that this doesn't influence a player's production?

Sticking with Stubbs and Rolen despite the collective struggles let's every player know that they don't have to worry about going 0 for a series and spending the next two weeks in the doghouse.

Even the backups gain from the culture created by Dusty, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey can gain confidence knowing that if they just keep their head down and produce when called upon, they'll have jobs for as long as they want if Dusty's managing. They also know that he's not going to overexpose them to a lose-lose situation if he can avoid it.

IMO, the tactical benefits of making one move over another are real and shouldn't be dismissed. But the perhaps "intangible" cultural benefits of a team that is relaxed, and confident, and truly invested in each other's best interest is probably even larger in the grand scheme of a season and beyond.

Dusty's really good at creating a confident clubhouse which can overshadow the tactical misfires.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 09:39 AM
Manager Dusty Baker = CF Juan Pierre

Sabremetrics has done some remarkable things for the game of baseball. It's become a sea change in the way fans and teams look at specific types of players. That said, it's also imperfect as a tool because some analysts/ fans take it too far.

Pierre, for all the bytes wasted on snarky comments, has had an above average major league baseball career. 28 WAR over 12 seasons is more than acceptable.

Baker's in the same boat as a manager. He, like Pierre, became synonymous with Old-Skool baseball and certain segments of fans/ bloggers/ analysts take delight in breaking down that Old Skool world instead of marrying old school and new school.

It's unfortunate that many analysts/ bloggers who abhor knee-jerk reactions in the old school, automatically assume certain opinions from Baker. These bloggers' favorite memes include:
1) Baker has vet love and won't give rookies or young players their due chance.
As we've seen over his time in Cincinnati, this is clearly false. He's starting two or three rookies just about every game this season, not to mention adding guys like Mike Leake, Cueto, and Bailey in the rotation, Chapman, Hoover, Ondrusek, and others in the pen, and Votto, Hanigan, Bruce, Stubbs, et al, shots in the OF.

2) Baker doesn't understand the need to occasionally baby young arms. He's an arm butcher.
Again, as has been proven by his time in Redland, this holds no water. Baker's been very careful with his young arms, never allowing a young guy to garner 200 IP in the Queen City. Baily, Leake, Latos, and Cueto are all, to some extent, babied. I've only seen a handful of 120+ pitch starts total in the 10+ seasons combined they've been major league pitchers.

3) Baker's stuck in the 70's, with lineups often determined by postion or type of player. He doesn't understand lineup construction or obp.
I agree that Baker's lineups are constructed less than ideally. However, you're talking about a handful of runs over the course of an entire season; this is much ado about very little. Too, the consistency of spot (Votto always hits third, Hanigan 8th) is one of those human, psychological things sabre-heads ignore about managers.

Baker has problems, of course. He makes mistakes.

But he's not a moron. (The ESPN article hints at an intelligent and well-rounded man.) And he's not a poor manager.

M2
07-16-2012, 09:56 AM
Dusty's done a great job this year. The Reds have their flaws and he's managed around them. This is a team that lost its closer before the season started and then had its designated backup closer stumble. Baker not only righted that ship, but the Reds now have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. BTW, here's a quick look at Reds bullpen ERAs:

2012 - 2.70
2011 - 3.55
2010 - 3.97
2009 - 3.56
2008 - 3.81
2007 - 5.13
2006 - 4.44
2005 - 4.82
2004 - 5.19

Hey, Dusty showed up in 2008. It's almost like he fixed something.

This season he's also been forced to manage around an impossible lineup situation. I despise Cozart and Stubbs hitting 1-2 as much as anyone else, but Dusty did manage to get Phillips back on track after his slow start and he's seemingly worked Ludwick into usefulness. He's the manager who put Todd Frazier in the lineup. Now he's trying to get Rolen back on track. Why? Because he can only work with the roster he's got. Four or five bats aren't enough.

And his patience with Leake and Bailey this season is netting positive results.

The Reds have gone from a potential contender to the team to beat in the NL Central. If all you can do is grouse about the manager during a season like this (and seasons like this have been all too infrequent for the Reds during the past 12 years) then maybe baseball isn't for you.

RANDY IN INDY
07-16-2012, 09:58 AM
Manager Dusty Baker = CF Juan Pierre

Sabremetrics has done some remarkable things for the game of baseball. It's become a sea change in the way fans and teams look at specific types of players. That said, it's also imperfect as a tool because some analysts/ fans take it too far.

Pierre, for all the bytes wasted on snarky comments, has had an above average major league baseball career. 28 WAR over 12 seasons is more than acceptable.

Baker's in the same boat as a manager. He, like Pierre, became synonymous with Old-Skool baseball and certain segments of fans/ bloggers/ analysts take delight in breaking down that Old Skool world instead of marrying old school and new school.

It's unfortunate that many analysts/ bloggers who abhor knee-jerk reactions in the old school, automatically assume certain opinions from Baker. These bloggers' favorite memes include:
1) Baker has vet love and won't give rookies or young players their due chance.
As we've seen over his time in Cincinnati, this is clearly false. He's starting two or three rookies just about every game this season, not to mention adding guys like Mike Leake, Cueto, and Bailey in the rotation, Chapman, Hoover, Ondrusek, and others in the pen, and Votto, Hanigan, Bruce, Stubbs, et al, shots in the OF.

2) Baker doesn't understand the need to occasionally baby young arms. He's an arm butcher.
Again, as has been proven by his time in Redland, this holds no water. Baker's been very careful with his young arms, never allowing a young guy to garner 200 IP in the Queen City. Baily, Leake, Latos, and Cueto are all, to some extent, babied. I've only seen a handful of 120+ pitch starts total in the 10+ seasons combined they've been major league pitchers.

3) Baker's stuck in the 70's, with lineups often determined by postion or type of player. He doesn't understand lineup construction or obp.
I agree that Baker's lineups are constructed less than ideally. However, you're talking about a handful of runs over the course of an entire season; this is much ado about very little. Too, the consistency of spot (Votto always hits third, Hanigan 8th) is one of those human, psychological things sabre-heads ignore about managers.

Baker has problems, of course. He makes mistakes.

But he's not a moron. (The ESPN article hints at an intelligent and well-rounded man.) And he's not a poor manager.

:beerme:

RANDY IN INDY
07-16-2012, 09:59 AM
Dusty's done a great job this year. The Reds have their flaws and he's managed around them. This is a team that lost its closer before the season started and then had its designated backup closer stumble. Baker not only righted that ship, but the Reds now have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. BTW, here's a quick look at Reds bullpen ERAs:

2012 - 2.70
2011 - 3.55
2010 - 3.97
2009 - 3.56
2008 - 3.81
2007 - 5.13
2006 - 4.44
2005 - 4.82
2004 - 5.19

Hey, Dusty showed up in 2008. It's almost like he fixed something.

This season he's also been forced to manage around an impossible lineup situation. I despise Cozart and Stubbs hitting 1-2 as much as anyone else, but Dusty did manage to Phillips back on track after his slow start and he's seemingly worked Ludwick into usefulness. He's the manager who put Todd Frazier in the lineup. Now he's trying to get Rolen back on track. Why? Because he can only work with the roster he's got. Four or five bats aren't enough.

And his patience with Leake and Bailey this season is netting positive results.

The Reds have gone from a potential contender to the team to beat in the NL Central. If all you can do is grouse about the manager during a season like this (and seasons like this have been all too infrequent for the Reds during the past 12 years) then maybe baseball isn't for you.

:beerme: Two really good posts in a row.

REDREAD
07-16-2012, 10:07 AM
This Dusty bashing has just gotten ludicrous.

I bet the some of the people saying that Rolen should be relegated to PH only also wanted the Reds to DFA Ludwick early this year. They probably also wanted to pay another team cash to take Arroyo off our hands.

Shouldn't Dusty get some credit for Votto and Phillips wanting to stay here longterm? Remember, the consensus was that it was "impossible".

I think Dusty deserves a lot of credit for handling Leake and Homer. Both have had growing pains at times. Granted, they have talent, but Dusty has handled both wonderflly.

I'm not sure what innovation people want from Dusty, other than batting Hannigan #2 (which isn't going to make a difference over the season, and may actually decrease runs scored). I've seen valid criticism from overusing Logan, but Dusty seems to be giving LeCure and Simon more chances with the game on the line so far in the second half (both got key appearances in the Cardinal series).

Dusty is the best manager we've had in a long time. When he decides to retire, I hope we get someone of similiar quality.

Slyder
07-16-2012, 10:11 AM
Dusty's done a great job this year. The Reds have their flaws and he's managed around them. This is a team that lost its closer before the season started and then had its designated backup closer stumble. Baker not only righted that ship, but the Reds now have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. BTW, here's a quick look at Reds bullpen ERAs:

2012 - 2.70
2011 - 3.55
2010 - 3.97
2009 - 3.56
2008 - 3.81
2007 - 5.13
2006 - 4.44
2005 - 4.82
2004 - 5.19

Hey, Dusty showed up in 2008. It's almost like he fixed something.

This season he's also been forced to manage around an impossible lineup situation. I despise Cozart and Stubbs hitting 1-2 as much as anyone else, but Dusty did manage to Phillips back on track after his slow start and he's seemingly worked Ludwick into usefulness. He's the manager who put Todd Frazier in the lineup. Now he's trying to get Rolen back on track. Why? Because he can only work with the roster he's got. Four or five bats aren't enough.

And his patience with Leake and Bailey this season is netting positive results.

The Reds have gone from a potential contender to the team to beat in the NL Central. If all you can do is grouse about the manager during a season like this (and seasons like this have been all too infrequent for the Reds during the past 12 years) then maybe baseball isn't for you.

The Reds in general started finding better talent to work with. We started getting better front office guidance with Wayne Krivsky (Arroyo, Phillips, Mesoraco) then Walt came along and built on the foundation laid with Wayne. Give this pitching staff to some of the Dunn/Griffey teams and we're talking legitimate contenders. Eric Milton (money aside) would be working in AAA right now and he was our ACE at one point during that era.

Dusty's not been near as bad as I expected but he still wants to make me :bang: from time to time. He is, what he is. I personally would like someone who better balanced the "get in your face" and player's manager like Jack was but I'm not in a position to make that choice.

nate
07-16-2012, 10:14 AM
Baseball is a game of odds: players, managers, front offices, etc.

Sometimes you have all the odds in your favor and you lose.

Sometimes you have all the odds against you and win.

I think Dusty probably maximizes his odds in the clubhouse.

I think he minimizes those odds on the field.

I think the field decisions are more impactful (is this a word? If not, it should be!) than those in the clubhouse.

He did have some pretty cool glasses on last night though.

M2
07-16-2012, 10:26 AM
Baseball is a game of odds: players, managers, front offices, etc.

Sometimes you have all the odds in your favor and you lose.

Sometimes you have all the odds against you and win.

I think Dusty probably maximizes his odds in the clubhouse.

I think he minimizes those odds on the field.

I think the field decisions are more impactful (is this a word? If not, it should be!) than those in the clubhouse.

He did have some pretty cool glasses on last night though.

I generally agree except I think the clubhouse decisions have more impact. Turning out a team that's ready to play every day gets severely overlooked.

I also think Dusty doesn't get enough credit for his in-game decisions. I listed the bullpen ERAs above. The Reds have had a consistently good pen since Dusty arrived. That is partially the result of making good field decisions. Reds PHs have also been in the top 10 in OPS in all of MLB each of the past four seasons. Again, good field decisions help drive those numbers.

Big Klu
07-16-2012, 10:28 AM
Well said, Scrap and M2!

Homer Bailey
07-16-2012, 10:29 AM
Baseball is a game of odds: players, managers, front offices, etc.

Sometimes you have all the odds in your favor and you lose.

Sometimes you have all the odds against you and win.

I think Dusty probably maximizes his odds in the clubhouse.

I think he minimizes those odds on the field.

I think the field decisions are more impactful (is this a word? If not, it should be!) than those in the clubhouse.

He did have some pretty cool glasses on last night though.

:thumbup:

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 10:37 AM
I'm with you. Dusty either makes bad decisions or lucky decisions. There are no other options.

I agree. It's sad and unfortunately predictable. This game is not stats only. It does have a human side to it surprisingly enough. It's kinda shortsighted to constantly only look at one side of that coin. Dusty's coin may be weighted to land in favor of the human factors over the game decision/stats factors...but he's not oblivious to them. Sometimes it feels like fans here think he's clueless when it comes to the game of baseball. Just sad.

westofyou
07-16-2012, 10:39 AM
Pocket post (nm)

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 10:46 AM
Well said, Scrap and M2!

Exactly, two of the better posts I've seen in quite a while.

Puffy
07-16-2012, 10:46 AM
Dusty's done a great job this year. The Reds have their flaws and he's managed around them. This is a team that lost its closer before the season started and then had its designated backup closer stumble. Baker not only righted that ship, but the Reds now have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. BTW, here's a quick look at Reds bullpen ERAs:

2012 - 2.70
2011 - 3.55
2010 - 3.97
2009 - 3.56
2008 - 3.81
2007 - 5.13
2006 - 4.44
2005 - 4.82
2004 - 5.19

Hey, Dusty showed up in 2008. It's almost like he fixed something.

This season he's also been forced to manage around an impossible lineup situation. I despise Cozart and Stubbs hitting 1-2 as much as anyone else, but Dusty did manage to get Phillips back on track after his slow start and he's seemingly worked Ludwick into usefulness. He's the manager who put Todd Frazier in the lineup. Now he's trying to get Rolen back on track. Why? Because he can only work with the roster he's got. Four or five bats aren't enough.

And his patience with Leake and Bailey this season is netting positive results.

The Reds have gone from a potential contender to the team to beat in the NL Central. If all you can do is grouse about the manager during a season like this (and seasons like this have been all too infrequent for the Reds during the past 12 years) then maybe baseball isn't for you.

Post. More.

757690
07-16-2012, 10:59 AM
Baseball is a game of odds: players, managers, front offices, etc.

Sometimes you have all the odds in your favor and you lose.

Sometimes you have all the odds against you and win.

I think Dusty probably maximizes his odds in the clubhouse.

I think he minimizes those odds on the field.

I think the field decisions are more impactful (is this a word? If not, it should be!) than those in the clubhouse.

He did have some pretty cool glasses on last night though.

I get what your saying, but I don't think Dusty minimizes the odds on the field.

He makes between 50-100 decisions a game. He gets over 95% of those correct. That final 5% are the ones that drive every fan crazy, no matter who the manager is, and are very close to 50-50 odds by themselves. Even if Dusty gets them all wrong, everytime, he's still not minimizing the odds of the Reds winning on field. In fact, he's barely having an impact at all, overall, over the course of a full season.

It's not that these decisions aren't important, nor that they can't effect the Reds winning percentage, but it's not fair to say that Dusty is minimizing the Reds odds of winning with his on field decisions.

Homer Bailey
07-16-2012, 11:00 AM
Dusty's done a great job this year. The Reds have their flaws and he's managed around them. This is a team that lost its closer before the season started and then had its designated backup closer stumble. Baker not only righted that ship, but the Reds now have the best bullpen ERA in baseball. BTW, here's a quick look at Reds bullpen ERAs:

2012 - 2.70
2011 - 3.55
2010 - 3.97
2009 - 3.56
2008 - 3.81
2007 - 5.13
2006 - 4.44
2005 - 4.82
2004 - 5.19

Hey, Dusty showed up in 2008. It's almost like he fixed something.


Or its almost like the Reds cut ties with the following guys tho put up these numbers in 2007:

Kirk Saarloos 7.17
Victor Santos 5.17
Mike Gosling 4.91
Ricky Stone 10.13
Rheal Cormier 9.00
Eddie Guardado 7.24
Marcus Mcbeth 5.95
Jon Coutlangus 4.39
Mike Stanton 5.93
Brad Salmon 4.13

That's 283 innings of relief pitching that did not throw a single pitch for the Reds in 2008. Why in the world would Dusty get credit for Walt cutting ties with those guys?

757690
07-16-2012, 11:02 AM
I was in San Francisco during his whole tenure, you're wrong about him being considered a fool long ago, it's a 21st century thing that started during the fire Joe Morgan era

One thing to consider, besides some Reds fans, the majority of people who think that Dusty is a clown are Cubs fans.

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 11:09 AM
Why in the world would Dusty get credit for Walt cutting ties with those guys?

I get your point, but wasn't it Krivsky? Walt started in April of '08.

edabbs44
07-16-2012, 11:10 AM
Baseball is a game of odds: players, managers, front offices, etc.

Sometimes you have all the odds in your favor and you lose.

Sometimes you have all the odds against you and win.

I think Dusty probably maximizes his odds in the clubhouse.

I think he minimizes those odds on the field.

I think the field decisions are more impactful (is this a word? If not, it should be!) than those in the clubhouse.

He did have some pretty cool glasses on last night though.

I think the clubhouse effect is getting kind of a bad rap. Keeping your players happy, productive and dedicated can be infinitely more important than whether or not someone bunts at a given time, pitching a certain reliever at a given moment or where someone is hitting in the order. It only seems like those are more impactful since they are more tangible for message board posters like you and I.

edabbs44
07-16-2012, 11:14 AM
Or its almost like the Reds cut ties with the following guys tho put up these numbers in 2007:

Kirk Saarloos 7.17
Victor Santos 5.17
Mike Gosling 4.91
Ricky Stone 10.13
Rheal Cormier 9.00
Eddie Guardado 7.24
Marcus Mcbeth 5.95
Jon Coutlangus 4.39
Mike Stanton 5.93
Brad Salmon 4.13

That's 283 innings of relief pitching that did not throw a single pitch for the Reds in 2008. Why in the world would Dusty get credit for Walt cutting ties with those guys?

Dusty has gotten legitimate productivity in the past few years out of guys like Ondrusek, Jordan Smith, Rhodes, Masset, Lecure, Bray, etc. These guys weren't exactly Mariano, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith when they got to Cincy.

757690
07-16-2012, 11:14 AM
Or its almost like the Reds cut ties with the following guys tho put up these numbers in 2007:

Kirk Saarloos 7.17
Victor Santos 5.17
Mike Gosling 4.91
Ricky Stone 10.13
Rheal Cormier 9.00
Eddie Guardado 7.24
Marcus Mcbeth 5.95
Jon Coutlangus 4.39
Mike Stanton 5.93
Brad Salmon 4.13

That's 283 innings of relief pitching that did not throw a single pitch for the Reds in 2008. Why in the world would Dusty get credit for Walt cutting ties with those guys?

Reds added Cordero and Affeldt in 2008, other then that, it was a similar cast of retreads in the pen. Those two are big improvements and the front office deserves credit. But it doesn't explain a near 1.5 drop in ERA for the pen as a whole. Dusty deserves some credit for his handling of the pen.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 11:14 AM
Agreed.

Managers get far too much credit for in-game decisions, as almost all of them make exactly the same decisions, vis a vis small ball, relief and pinch hitting strategies, etc. Only perhaps Joe Maddon and Bobby Valentine make different decisions than the norm.

If you judge Baker against his peers in terms of strategy, he's just as good/ bad as they are.

M2
07-16-2012, 11:20 AM
Or its almost like the Reds cut ties with the following guys tho put up these numbers in 2007:

Kirk Saarloos 7.17
Victor Santos 5.17
Mike Gosling 4.91
Ricky Stone 10.13
Rheal Cormier 9.00
Eddie Guardado 7.24
Marcus Mcbeth 5.95
Jon Coutlangus 4.39
Mike Stanton 5.93
Brad Salmon 4.13

That's 283 innings of relief pitching that did not throw a single pitch for the Reds in 2008. Why in the world would Dusty get credit for Walt cutting ties with those guys?

Krivsky is the GM who cut ties with those guys and rebuilt the bullpen during the 2007-8 winter, notably by signing Cordero (which, regardless of how much people complained about his contract, absolutely worked).

Yet Dusty is responsible for deploying the pitchers he's given and, five years on, there's no argument to be made other than that he's deployed them well. It's not a fluke and he deserves a lot of credit for it.

MikeS21
07-16-2012, 12:29 PM
Isn't this pretty close to the "if tou haven't done it, you shouuldnt be critical" line of thinking?

If that's the case, why not just shut down RZ now? Complaining about managers has been around for 140 years and will far outlive all of us.

And I thought Dusty managed the game very well last night, except for trying to make it harder on himself to start the game.
No, opinions are great. It's a free country, and freedom of speech, and all that. But as I have said numerous times, opinions are like bellybuttons: every body has one, and no one wants to see mine constantly in their face.

The problem comes when our opinions don't match the facts, but we still stick to our opinions. And the facts are that at the end of the day, Dusty Baker will be managing a major league team because the organization values Dusty's decisions. And if it isn't the Reds, there will be five other teams wanting Dusty to manage for them.

I'm not talking about the so-called "gurus" and pundits and writers out there who who have nit-pick at Dusty since his first day managing the Giants. I'm talking about the GM's and organizational executives out there. Evidently, the people in the know - the folks who run baseball teams - must value and trust Dusty's instincts and decisions.

I'm all for expressing opinions. But at least we need to be honest enough to admit that if it came down to listening to all the criticisms of Dusty on RedsZone, and the decisions of Dusty Baker, that vast majority - if not all - of major league teams would listen to Dusty Baker before they would listen to our opinions about what we would do differently.

nate
07-16-2012, 01:20 PM
I generally agree except I think the clubhouse decisions have more impact. Turning out a team that's ready to play every day gets severely overlooked.

I also think Dusty doesn't get enough credit for his in-game decisions. I listed the bullpen ERAs above. The Reds have had a consistently good pen since Dusty arrived. That is partially the result of making good field decisions. Reds PHs have also been in the top 10 in OPS in all of MLB each of the past four seasons. Again, good field decisions help drive those numbers.

I would put more weight on having better bullpen pitchers and the volatility of bullpen ERAs than the management thereof. However, using the pieces is a part of it.

I personally don't read much into pinch hitting splits other than bravo to Dusty from keeping "her" from blowing on "some other guy's dice."

(It's a song, people!)

:cool:

Cooper
07-16-2012, 01:23 PM
They hustle and play hard. Dusty absolutely gets the credit for that.

I think the one player that he deserves most of the credit for is BP. If you remember, BP had a major problem with getting out of the box and running when he hit the ball far. There were definite times when it cost him some bases. Dusty handled that situation perfectly, he would at times mention it in the press, but doing so in such a way that was pointed without embarassing the player. When reading the article from ESPN, it becomes clear how he handles those situations behind closed doors and with truth while also pointing to the player where his strengths can take him if he takes advantage of his opportunity. That's good motivational management- something that takes a long time to master because you've got to be aware of self. BP has talent and it was evident before Dusty got here- Dusty appears to be made sure he gets everything out ot it that he can.

nate
07-16-2012, 01:23 PM
I think the clubhouse effect is getting kind of a bad rap. Keeping your players happy, productive and dedicated can be infinitely more important than whether or not someone bunts at a given time, pitching a certain reliever at a given moment or where someone is hitting in the order. It only seems like those are more impactful since they are more tangible for message board posters like you and I.

Is saying the management of the game on the field is more important than the the game in clubhouse really a "bad rap?"

reds1869
07-16-2012, 01:26 PM
The Reds have and could do much worse than Dusty.

This sums it up for me. I'm not a fan of Dusty but he is better than just about anyone we've had over the past several decades. As much as I love to dream I doubt Joe Maddon is coming to Cincinnati any time soon.

M2
07-16-2012, 01:30 PM
I would put more weight on having better bullpen pitchers and the volatility of bullpen ERAs than the management thereof. However, using the pieces is a part of it.

I personally don't read much into pinch hitting splits other than bravo to Dusty from keeping "her" from blowing on "some other guy's dice."

(It's a song, people!)

:cool:

Five years of performance from the bullpen and four years by the PHs. We're well past volatility. Dusty's effectively using the pieces he's been given (and no one can accuse the Reds of having an elite roster the past five seasons). That's good field management.

REDREAD
07-16-2012, 02:00 PM
Five years of performance from the bullpen and four years by the PHs. We're well past volatility. Dusty's effectively using the pieces he's been given (and no one can accuse the Reds of having an elite roster the past five seasons). That's good field management.

Speaking of bullpen, Dusty has handled Simon perfectly.
Simon got off to a rough start.. I recall getting angry at him.
Simon has been a valuable part of the bullpen.
Considering this guy is about 31ish, never had success (despite having the tools), that's a pretty big accomplishment. Not saying that Dusty gets 100% of the credit, but he gets some.

Likewise, Hoover was not a highly touted prospect at all.. Maybe the Braves vastly underrated him and more credit goes to Walt than Dusty, but Dusty used him well.

It just seems like a dramatic change from years past, where the Reds would spend the entire season auditioning random arms for the bullpen all season, and watching most of them fail.

Raisor
07-16-2012, 03:24 PM
Speaking of bullpen, Dusty has handled Simon perfectly.
Simon got off to a rough start.. I recall getting angry at him.
Simon has been a valuable part of the bullpen.
Considering this guy is about 31ish, never had success (despite having the tools), that's a pretty big accomplishment. Not saying that Dusty gets 100% of the credit, but he gets some.

Likewise, Hoover was not a highly touted prospect at all.. Maybe the Braves vastly underrated him and more credit goes to Walt than Dusty, but Dusty used him well.

It just seems like a dramatic change from years past, where the Reds would spend the entire season auditioning random arms for the bullpen all season, and watching most of them fail.

So how much credit does Bryan Price get here? Hed be first to go if the pitching wasn't what it should be.

Tom Servo
07-16-2012, 03:28 PM
As much as I love to dream I doubt Joe Maddon is coming to Cincinnati any time soon.
Plus he's a weird wuss.

westofyou
07-16-2012, 03:28 PM
So how much credit does Bryan Price get here? Hed be first to go if the pitching wasn't what it should be.

Really quite a lot of credit goes his way, but as far as he being the first to go if it was all bad

It never seemed to affect Gullet did it?

REDREAD
07-16-2012, 03:41 PM
So how much credit does Bryan Price get here? Hed be first to go if the pitching wasn't what it should be.

Price gets credit as well. Most definitely.
From what I've heard, Price gets a lot of credit for Chapman too.

Price/Walt/Dusty and the entire Reds org is doing a lot better.

DGullett35
07-16-2012, 04:14 PM
Really quite a lot of credit goes his way, but as far as he being the first to go if it was all bad

It never seemed to affect Gullet did it?

Don was pitching coach from 93-05. Look at the pitchers he had to work with over those years.The 95 and 99 team were the only years we he had a decent staff to work with. I remember Don being called the "Mechanic" because he did a good job resurrecting guys' careers. ie. Mark Wholers, Pete Shourek, Pete Harnisch, Jeff Brantley, and Jeff Shaw to name a few. I know Im extremely biased since Don is part of my family but the man did an excellent job with what he had. He was apart of alot of different coaching staffs in those 12 years and stuck around.

westofyou
07-16-2012, 05:33 PM
Don was pitching coach from 93-05. Look at the pitchers he had to work with over those years.The 95 and 99 team were the only years we he had a decent staff to work with. I remember Don being called the "Mechanic" because he did a good job resurrecting guys' careers. ie. Mark Wholers, Pete Shourek, Pete Harnisch, Jeff Brantley, and Jeff Shaw to name a few. I know Im extremely biased since Don is part of my family but the man did an excellent job with what he had. He was apart of alot of different coaching staffs in those 12 years and stuck around.
A potter is only as good as his clay, DG had mud to work with

nate
07-16-2012, 05:40 PM
Five years of performance from the bullpen and four years by the PHs. We're well past volatility. Dusty's effectively using the pieces he's been given (and no one can accuse the Reds of having an elite roster the past five seasons). That's good field management.

I put even less stock in pinch hitting performance than bullpen ERA.

I think he'd be the best bench coach in the league.

Field manager: he's not my favorite but he's probably averagish at best.

I said he had cool glasses.

cumberlandreds
07-17-2012, 08:49 AM
A potter is only as good as his clay, DG had mud to work with


:p No one could have said it better.

RedlegJake
07-17-2012, 08:00 PM
I thought Gullet got short shrift when he was fired. He was a good pitching coach but you can't work miracles. Price is a good coach, too.

I also like Jacoby although he gets a lot of flack. Several players have credited him with improving their game. Cozart who was never supposed to hit, Frazier, just the other day Ludwick credited him with getting his stroke back and getting him out of his Petco problems finally.

I wonder if Dusty doesn't undo some of what Brooks teaches sometimes with his aggressive philosophy at the plate. I mean look at Stubbs and Heisey.

Heisey has one of the worst pitches per appearance averages in the majors. 3.5 That is bad. How much better would he be if he improved that number to more around the league average of 3.8? Even BP who gets flack for being too aggressive sometimes has an average around 4. Stubbs is just under the league average at 3.74

Is Dusty a problem for some of these young hitters? Does his aggressive hitter thing get in their heads in a bad way? When he specifically told the team to lay off and wait Verlander out look what happened! The next game they went right back to free swinging. I'm not so sure that isn't Dusty hurting his young hitters rather than his batting coach.

For a guy who supposedly wrecked his pitchers Dusty has been very good, imo, handling pitchers and careful, too, with few exceptions (like the Harang mess). The Bailey 8th the other night I'd even call a masterful stroke building up a young pitcher - just about everyone wanted Bailey out of the game except for a few who noted he had only thrown 90 pitches. It was hot and muggy and Homer is a noted gopher ball pitcher. I thought bullpen myself. I like how he handles the pen although he sometimes forgets he has 7 guys and not just 4 or 5.

My (and everyone I think) biggest beef is his obliviousness to OBP when it comes to lineup construction. I really don't think he cares. He isn't stupid. I know he knows all about OBP. He just doesn't think it's all that important in making up a lineup. Really, I believe he honestly thinks that. No other reason would explain why he keeps running the same low OBP players in the 1-2 holes. He has other choices. BP and Frazier 1-2 and hit Lud 4th. etc. There ARE options despite apologists who claim there aren't.

So all-in-all is Dusty a good manager or not? I tend to think he's a good manager if he is given the right players. He is not a manager to take an untalented team very far or to motivate an under achieving team. But given good players he won't beat himself. He won't lose games. Like most managers its all in the personnel. Torre couldn't win in Saint Louis. He won with the Yanks. He couldn't win in LA. It's all in the personnel.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2012, 10:35 AM
I can't imagine that Jacoby & Dusty have different hitting philosophies. I think it's pretty commonplace to hire coaches that follow the manager's take on things. And even if/when they do disagree, I'd expect the coaches will bow to the manager preferences most likely.

edabbs44
07-18-2012, 11:04 AM
I can't imagine that Jacoby & Dusty have different hitting philosophies. I think it's pretty commonplace to hire coaches that follow the manager's take on things. And even if/when they do disagree, I'd expect the coaches will bow to the manager preferences most likely.

I also think that it can be a convenient excuse for certain players.

REDREAD
07-18-2012, 01:17 PM
A little bit of a change of subject.. but I think it was 3 days ago, Dusty said on the radio that he was moving Stubbs to the leadoff because he told Stubbs that they have been patient with him and now it's time for Drew to become the player they all know that he can be.. Interesting idea to challenge Drew.. With Heisey also getting more PT of late.
I wonder if one of them might be leaving town soon.

I'm not saying that Dusty's approach is going to fix Drew (who knows), but an interesting approach, that gives some insight into Dusty.

Always Red
07-18-2012, 02:21 PM
A little bit of a change of subject.. but I think it was 3 days ago, Dusty said on the radio that he was moving Stubbs to the leadoff because he told Stubbs that they have been patient with him and now it's time for Drew to become the player they all know that he can be.. Interesting idea to challenge Drew.. With Heisey also getting more PT of late.
I wonder if one of them might be leaving town soon.

I'm not saying that Dusty's approach is going to fix Drew (who knows), but an interesting approach, that gives some insight into Dusty.

Agree; I got that same feeling- I think Stubbs was challenged- its either now, or we're moving you along.

RedlegJake
07-18-2012, 03:33 PM
Agree; I got that same feeling- I think Stubbs was challenged- its either now, or we're moving you along.

I hope that is exactly what is happening. It's time. Put up or get out. That simple. We need you NOW and its trade time so pick it up or sayonara.

_Sir_Charles_
07-18-2012, 06:53 PM
Baker said the Reds will approach offense differently with Votto out.

“We need to change our game,” he said. “We don’t have the power in the middle of the lineup with Joey out.”

The Reds pulled off a double steal Tuesday. But don’t expect a tremendous uptick in stolen bases.

“Everyone wonders why we don’t run more,” Baker said. “You can’t run into outs either. It’s about stolen-base percentage. We’re limited a little bit on hit-and-run because we have some swing-and-miss guys. Especially in our ballpark, you don’t want to run into outs. In this ballpark, you’re more dependent on guys to hit the ball out.” “

He is NOT clueless.

11larkin11
07-24-2012, 12:28 AM
Reds are 1 game back for best record in BASEBALL. Not the NL, where we're .5 back still, but all of MLB. The best player in baseball, who happens to play for our team, has been out and since then we've gone 6-2 (albeit against not great competition). Dusty continued to play Rolen, who's on a roll now. Some people wanted Ludwick cut, but now he's making people reconsider the need to trade for a LF. Our staff has the #3 ERA in baseball. Bruce has turned it up since Votto got hurt, Dusty sits him against his nemesis, inserts him as a PH to get an important RBI in a higher percentage situation than him facing Wandy all night. Phillips is almost at .300, Frazier is still rolling, and Mez is starting to turn it around with a 8 game hit streak.

I said it when Votto went down and I'll say it again. You can complain about Dusty's in-game managerial skills all you want, but there isn't one manager in baseball I'm more comfortable with keeping a team together when your best player goes down and weathering the storm than Dusty Baker. Keep it rollin Dusty!

marcshoe
07-24-2012, 01:30 AM
I've been known to get frustrated at Dusty, particularly regarding his lineup construction, but in spite of that, I am increasingly becoming a fan. As a teacher, I've learned the value of being able to relate to students and to give them the confidence they need to perform. Dusty is an expert of this, and I believe that his leadership abilities cover a multitude of sins.

In addition, I've been pretty impressed with the way he's handled Votto's absence. He had already gone with Ludwick in left, seeing that he was coming around and being rewarded for his confidence. Now he's playing Frazier at first instead of Cairo. How many of us thought that this was the type of move he would make before he became the Reds' manager?

I guess that in the end, I'd prefer a manager that the players want to play for. Dusty is this man, not because he's a personable goof, but because he's devoted himself to learning how to deal with people. See the thread about the ESPN article.

Sure I'd rather not have Stubbs at the top of the lineup, but honestly, it isn't hurting the team too much. What Dusty is doing is working, and I'm not sure a replacement-level manager would have the team playing this well.

Homer Bailey
07-24-2012, 10:24 AM
Still not a Dusty fan, and likely never will be. That being said, I've thought his decisions lately have been pretty darn good. I've been in agreement with a lot of his bullpen and lineup moves lately. This is not a look-back, results based comment. I'm a big proponent of "just because it worked, doesn't mean it was the right decision", Dusty has just made a lot of decisions lately that I thought were the right call pre-flop (to use a poker term).

PuffyPig
07-24-2012, 10:33 AM
Considering we were just trying to weather the storm until Votto got back (by that I mean post of us would have been pretty happy if we stayed close to the top within striking distance until Votto got back), we have since increased our lead over the Pirates and the Cards, even though both of them have been pretty hot too (Reds 6-2, Pitts 5-2, Cards 4-3).

With maybe as few as 9 games left before Votto comes back (against the 3 worse teams in the NL), we may be half way through the Votto absence.

RedlegJake
07-24-2012, 02:18 PM
Considering we were just trying to weather the storm until Votto got back (by that I mean post of us would have been pretty happy if we stayed close to the top within striking distance until Votto got back), we have since increased our lead over the Pirates and the Cards, even though both of them have been pretty hot too (Reds 6-2, Pitts 5-2, Cards 4-3).

With maybe as few as 9 games left before Votto comes back (against the 3 worse teams in the NL), we may be half way through the Votto absence.

I'm really tickled with the way they've played sans Joey. I hope they can take 2 of 3 from Houston since the Cubbies have already taken 1 from the Pirates and ditto the Dodgers/Cards. Setting up pretty nice for the Reds!

mdccclxix
07-26-2012, 10:59 AM
File this under: *Dusty hates young players* and Other Myths Created by Drunk Cubs Fans


Frazier is not the lone rookie keeping the Reds, who lead the NL Central by a half-game over Pittsburgh, in playoff contention. Along with Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati is one of the few successful teams in baseball that is relying on a trio of rookies.

"You look around the league and you won't see that," Reds hitting coach Brook Jacoby said. "These kids have done well in the minor leagues, and our minor league staff has done well with them and they've risen to the occasion."

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/07/23/todd-frazier-reds-jake-bullinger/index.html#ixzz21jzdDOFu

westofyou
07-26-2012, 12:03 PM
File this under: *Dusty hates young players* and Other Myths Created by Drunk Cubs Fans

Unpossible... I read it on Fire Joe Morgan dot com!