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Redlegs
07-16-2012, 12:44 AM
Bailey stepped in and stepped up tonight. What a great example of intestinal fortitude he showed in the 8th inning. Dusty sticking with him was huge and may pay dividends for the reasons pointed out by Orel Hershiser. Great night at GABP!

kaldaniels
07-16-2012, 03:19 AM
One of Fays tweets tonight guessed he may sign a 3 year deal after the year.

Didn't sound like anything in the works, just a response to someone's question.

Redlegs
07-16-2012, 08:18 AM
I have no problem with that.

MikeS21
07-16-2012, 08:53 AM
I was one of Bailey's biggest critics when he was in the minors. But over the last three years, he have shown flashes of being fantastic. His youth was/is the primary cause of his inconsistency.

I believe he will become a good MOR guy.

cumberlandreds
07-16-2012, 09:07 AM
He's gaining maturity and consistency right before our eyes. Wins like last night bring him along just that much more. Give Dusty credit for sticking with him.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2012, 09:41 AM
One of Fays tweets tonight guessed he may sign a 3 year deal after the year.

I've been wondering if the Reds would approach him with a LTC offer. He looks primed to be a legitimate candidate for one.

Let's also acknowledge that Bailey has stepped forward with Mesoraco behind the plate. The young catcher has done very well with both Homer and Leake.

HeatherC1212
07-16-2012, 09:54 AM
That was one of the best outings I've ever seen from Homer and he did it with Joe West umpiring behind home plate! That's sometimes challenging to say the least, LOL ;)

CySeymour
07-16-2012, 09:56 AM
That was one of the best outings I've ever seen from Homer and he did it with Joe West umpiring behind home plate! That's sometimes challenging to say the least, LOL ;)

And a nationally televised game, where Country Joe tends to think he is the star!

Hollcat
07-16-2012, 10:00 AM
Good to see Bailey come up big but he still doesn't consistently give you a solid start. That's three good ones in a row but comes after a 6.00 era in June

kaldaniels
07-16-2012, 10:51 AM
Good to see Bailey come up big but he still doesn't consistently give you a solid start. That's three good ones in a row but comes after a 6.00 era in June

72 percent of his starts have been quality starts this year.

Without looking I imagine his June was better than Mat or Mike's April in terms of ERA.

I don't know, I guess I'd like some parameters set to define consistency and then see where Homer ranks, rather than seeing him sniped with the "inconsistent" label with little to support it.

And remember the point that Rick always makes as well...looking at calendar month splits is an arbitrary way to view things. There are 29 other data sets that you miss out on when you just look from the first of the month to the first of the month.

medford
07-16-2012, 10:57 AM
72 percent of his starts have been quality starts this year.

Without looking I imagine his June was better than Mat or Mike's April in terms of ERA.

I don't know, I guess I'd like some parameters set to define consistency and then see where Homer ranks, rather than seeing him sniped with the "inconsistent" label with little to support it.

And remember the point that Rick always makes as well...looking at calendar month splits is an arbitrary way to view things. There are 29 other data sets that you miss out on when you just from the first of the month to the first of the month.

Consitancy to some mean Homer would have to (at a minimum) provide a "quality start" every single time he toes the rubber.

The Operator
07-16-2012, 11:12 AM
Good to see Bailey come up big but he still doesn't consistently give you a solid start. That's three good ones in a row but comes after a 6.00 era in JuneYet he's still on pace for 15 wins, 200 IP and he's sporting an ERA below 4.00.

For a mid to back end of the rotation starter, those numbers are fantastic.

nate
07-16-2012, 11:18 AM
72 percent of his starts have been quality starts this year.

Without looking I imagine his June was better than Mat or Mike's April in terms of ERA.

I don't know, I guess I'd like some parameters set to define consistency and then see where Homer ranks, rather than seeing him sniped with the "inconsistent" label with little to support it.

And remember the point that Rick always makes as well...looking at calendar month splits is an arbitrary way to view things. There are 29 other data sets that you miss out on when you just from the first of the month to the first of the month.

Check here (http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=8362&position=P&page=0&type=full).

membengal
07-16-2012, 11:18 AM
I count 12 Quality Starts in 18 outings for Bailey (and a 13th that would have been but for an unearned run that gave him 4 overall runs in that particular outing). Two of those were in June.

Not sure why he is considered "inconsistent" by anyone. His ERA under 4.00, he is now as capable as anyone on the staff of going 8 or 9 innings in an outing, and has become pitch efficient all things considered.

He is, I would think, by most any objective measure, a complete win for the organization. A homegrown SP showing signs of being able to eat innings and help this team win games.

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 11:19 AM
Yet he's still on pace for 15 wins, 200 IP and he's sporting an ERA below 4.00.

For a mid to back end of the rotation starter, those numbers are fantastic.

true. But I expect more. I think that's because I don't view him as a mid to back end starter. I view him as a top of the rotation starter....eventually.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2012, 11:22 AM
I've always loved Homer Bailey.

The Operator
07-16-2012, 11:25 AM
true. But I expect more. I think that's because I don't view him as a mid to back end starter. I view him as a top of the rotation starter....eventually.

He is second on the team in QS with 13. Johnny Cueto is the team leader with... 14.

Not sure where this whole "inconsistent" thing from so many Reds fans is coming from. That #1 draft status must be making people think that unless Homer goes all 9 and Ks 15 every time out he's a disappointment.

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 11:28 AM
He is second on the team in QS with 13. Johnny Cueto is the team leader with... 14.

Not sure where this whole "inconsistent" thing from so many Reds fans is coming from. That #1 draft status must be making people think that unless Homer goes all 9 and Ks 15 every time out he's a disappointment.

I'm not disappointed by Homer. I'm one of his biggest fans. I just think he's still got the TOR potential that we've heard of for years. And I couldn't care less if his K's are high or not. Only thing I want to see from Homer is strike throwing and keeping the ball down. If he does those 2 things, he'll be dominant IMO.

cumberlandreds
07-16-2012, 11:31 AM
I'm not disappointed by Homer. I'm one of his biggest fans. I just think he's still got the TOR potential that we've heard of for years. And I couldn't care less if his K's are high or not. Only thing I want to see from Homer is strike throwing and keeping the ball down. If he does those 2 things, he'll be dominant IMO.

He's climbing the hill to be a TOR type starter. It's been a long slow climb but he's getting there. He has shown us all what patience can do sometimes.

The Operator
07-16-2012, 11:35 AM
I'm not disappointed by Homer. I'm one of his biggest fans. I just think he's still got the TOR potential that we've heard of for years. And I couldn't care less if his K's are high or not. Only thing I want to see from Homer is strike throwing and keeping the ball down. If he does those 2 things, he'll be dominant IMO.I agree, and I didn't mean to direct the latter part of my post at you although I know that's how it looked.

I guess some guys just take longer to develop, but I'm glad The Reds have stuck with Homer. Their patience is starting to pay off.

Johnny Footstool
07-16-2012, 11:57 AM
Homer's recovery in the 8th inning was amazing. After giving up back-to-back singles, he pitched like a bulldog, throwing strikes and putting the pressure on the hitters. I was thrilled that he got the win -- he deserved it.

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 12:04 PM
I agree, and I didn't mean to direct the latter part of my post at you although I know that's how it looked.

I guess some guys just take longer to develop, but I'm glad The Reds have stuck with Homer. Their patience is starting to pay off.

Don't worry about it. I was pretty sure you were just commenting and not directing it at me, but I wanted to clarify my position regardless.

As you can see in my sig...I've always had high expectations for Homer.

Homer Bailey
07-16-2012, 12:05 PM
I'm obviously one of Homer's biggest fans, but if I'm being objective, I have to admit that the declining K rate still has me worried. It's good to see that he's able to get outs recently without striking guys out, but I wonder how long he can get by with a K rate around 6, while giving up as many home runs as he does.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 12:09 PM
Bailey's tied with Bud Norris, Edison Volquez, and Carlos Zambrano with a 0.8 WAR. That ranks 82 out of 100 qualified starters.

If you push the starters out to 150 (five starters per team), he moves back to a tie for 1ooth. He's the last Red starter on the list, ranking just ahead of Latos and Arroyo. (Leake is slightly ahead of those guys, and Cueto in 8th overall.)

The Nationals (Detwiler), Tigers (Fister), Phillies (Blanton), Cardinals (Westbrook), and Yankees (Hughes) are the only teams with a fifth starter higher than that on the list.

Bailey's one of the best fifth starters in the league.

Patrick Bateman
07-16-2012, 12:15 PM
I have to agree with the above posts...

Last night was fun, but Bailey isn't really doing anything better than the previous seasons, except perhaps, be a little luckier, and face declining offense in MLB.

With two runners on in the 8th last night (and kudos to baiely for getting out of it), he was one batter away from the usual bashing he gets if he didn't get those three guys out. We can't be so results based.... one more decent hit, and I bet there would have been a thread wanting to basically trade him for anything. Again, great job by Bailey, but I still don't see the rush to sign him to a reasonably expensive extension when you are paying more for short term results than for likley long term future success.

kaldaniels
07-16-2012, 12:35 PM
I have to agree with the above posts...

Last night was fun, but Bailey isn't really doing anything better than the previous seasons, except perhaps, be a little luckier, and face declining offense in MLB.

With two runners on in the 8th last night (and kudos to baiely for getting out of it), he was one batter away from the usual bashing he gets if he didn't get those three guys out. We can't be so results based.... one more decent hit, and I bet there would have been a thread wanting to basically trade him for anything. Again, great job by Bailey, but I still don't see the rush to sign him to a reasonably expensive extension when you are paying more for short term results than for likley long term future success.

7 pitchers in the NL have more quality starts (true, not the best stat) than Homer, that's it.

Bailey is without a doubt an interesting candidate for discussion...but I would propose he is no longer (if that is what one thought, and not that that is what you are saying) a number 5. I'd say at least a number 4.

Patrick Bateman
07-16-2012, 12:39 PM
7 pitchers in the NL have more quality starts (true, not the best stat) than Homer, that's it.

Bailey is without a doubt an interesting candidate for discussion...but I would propose he is no longer (if that is what one thought, and not that that is what you are saying) a number 5. I'd say at least a number 4.

There's just so much noise there.
Hoenstly, looking at his peripherals, he is arguably worse than in prior seasons.

His strong quality start ratio is likely more do to getting a little bit luckier, and being more durable to being more of a pitch to contact guy. Right now he is getting more outs due to the opposition hitting it to fiedlers, than Bailey getting into longer at-bats that result in a strikeout.

That is not necesssarily a better way of doing things, or repreatable, which is why I hesitate to say that he has made a real improvement. If he's a number 4 right now (or whatever you want to call him), then I maintain that he was going into the season as well.

dougdirt
07-16-2012, 12:41 PM
There's just so much noise there.
Hoenstly, looking at his peripherals, he is arguably worse than in prior seasons.

His strong quality start ratio is likely more do to getting a little bit luckier, and being more durable to being more of a pitch to contact guy. Right now he is getting more outs due to the opposition hitting it to fiedlers, than Bailey getting into longer at-bats that result in a strikeout.

That is not necesssarily a better way of doing things, or repreatable, which is why I hesitate to say that he has made a real improvement. If he's a number 4 right now (or whatever you want to call him), then I maintain that he was going into the season as well.

Homer Bailey, among qualified starters, ranks 26th in the NL in ERA+. That would make him a bit more than a #4.

Sea Ray
07-16-2012, 12:43 PM
I count 12 Quality Starts in 18 outings for Bailey (and a 13th that would have been but for an unearned run that gave him 4 overall runs in that particular outing). Two of those were in June.



The latest definition for quality starts doesn't include unearned runs


In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 12:43 PM
7 pitchers in the NL have more quality starts (true, not the best stat) than Homer, that's it.

Bailey is without a doubt an interesting candidate for discussion...but I would propose he is no longer (if that is what one thought, and not that that is what you are saying) a number 5. I'd say at least a number 4.

He's the fifth starter on his team. I'd argue he's a MOR guy overall. (WAR says that, so far this year, he's 100/150 and a top-end fourth starter, which I'd accept as pretty close to true value.)

kaldaniels
07-16-2012, 12:44 PM
Homer Bailey, among qualified starters, ranks 26th in the NL in ERA+. That would make him a bit more than a #4.

And I'll just say for the record I don't know what "slot" of a pitcher I would put Homer at right now...haven't invested the time.

But looking at his overall numbers it would be hard to have a discussion with someone ranking him below a 4.

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 12:45 PM
Homer Bailey, among qualified starters, ranks 26th in the NL in ERA+. That would make him a bit more than a #4.

Nice find, doug.

What would he be if you expanded/ subtraced the list to the 80 starters with the most IP?

Sea Ray
07-16-2012, 12:48 PM
I understand the high expectations for Homer and for what it's worth I'll add that he'll need to move out of GABP for him to reach his true potential but isn't winning a game like last night what we all had in mind for him? I think he's a MOR guy for us but a top of the rotation guy for a west coast team. Put him in a ballpark like SD or SEA and he'd be awfully good

Patrick Bateman
07-16-2012, 12:51 PM
Homer Bailey, among qualified starters, ranks 26th in the NL in ERA+. That would make him a bit more than a #4.

And among qualified pitchers, there are 15 guys with worse xFIP's than Bailey. I don't really care to rank "what type of starter" Bailey is, because it's subjective, and doesn't really matter. He's a rotation worthy starter and should get the ball every 5 days just like Latos or Cueto.

Overall, Homer Bailey has a 4.32 xFIP, 4.55 FIP, and 3.93 ERA.

As far as major league teams are concerned, that would rank him the following, 24th, 26th, and 10th.

I think it goes to show that ERA+ is likely not particularly useful, especially considering that over his career he has not displayed any ability (before now) to outperform his peripherals. He is likely a below average starter, regardless of how you rank him, and needs to start pitching better in order to maintain his current level of ERA.

kaldaniels
07-16-2012, 12:52 PM
I count 12 Quality Starts in 18 outings for Bailey (and a 13th that would have been but for an unearned run that gave him 4 overall runs in that particular outing). Two of those were in June.

Not sure why he is considered "inconsistent" by anyone. His ERA under 4.00, he is now as capable as anyone on the staff of going 8 or 9 innings in an outing, and has become pitch efficient all things considered.

He is, I would think, by most any objective measure, a complete win for the organization. A homegrown SP showing signs of being able to eat innings and help this team win games.

It's nice to see you coming around on Homer.

membengal
07-16-2012, 12:54 PM
It's nice to see you coming around on Homer.

I was in his corner for a very, very long time. It was only over the last year that I finally lost patience. Glad the Reds were more patient on this score.

Sea Ray
07-16-2012, 12:56 PM
I don't know about you folks but I look at Bronson as our #5 starter, not Homer

WildcatFan
07-16-2012, 12:58 PM
Personally, I see him as a 3-4 guy.
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/images/2012/03/24/yOhLRglW.png

camisadelgolf
07-16-2012, 01:01 PM
This is his 6th year in the Majors, and he has a winning record in 5 of his 6 seasons. What this means? Pretty much nothing. But I'm a homer when it comes to Homer, and I'm going to say the guy is just a born winner.

dougdirt
07-16-2012, 01:22 PM
And among qualified pitchers, there are 15 guys with worse xFIP's than Bailey. I don't really care to rank "what type of starter" Bailey is, because it's subjective, and doesn't really matter. He's a rotation worthy starter and should get the ball every 5 days just like Latos or Cueto.

Overall, Homer Bailey has a 4.32 xFIP, 4.55 FIP, and 3.93 ERA.

As far as major league teams are concerned, that would rank him the following, 24th, 26th, and 10th.

I think it goes to show that ERA+ is likely not particularly useful, especially considering that over his career he has not displayed any ability (before now) to outperform his peripherals. He is likely a below average starter, regardless of how you rank him, and needs to start pitching better in order to maintain his current level of ERA.

He has been pitching better. His peripherals in April flat out sucked. He had 9 walks and 16 strikeouts in April (1.78 K/BB). Since then, he has a 2.95 K/BB rate. Home run rate is up since then, at 1.44 from 1.08 in April. Of course that can directly be attributed to three home runs that would have gone out of a total of 4 ballparks combined according to hittrackeronline.com since then. Take those out and his HR rate goes to 1.12. If Bailey continues pitching like he has since April, with a 3-1 K/BB rate, he is likely going to be able to continue to perform as he has.

Homer Bailey
07-16-2012, 01:46 PM
He has been pitching better. His peripherals in April flat out sucked. He had 9 walks and 16 strikeouts in April (1.78 K/BB). Since then, he has a 2.95 K/BB rate. Home run rate is up since then, at 1.44 from 1.08 in April. Of course that can directly be attributed to three home runs that would have gone out of a total of 4 ballparks combined according to hittrackeronline.com since then. Take those out and his HR rate goes to 1.12. If Bailey continues pitching like he has since April, with a 3-1 K/BB rate, he is likely going to be able to continue to perform as he has.

Encouraging to see it broken down like this. What do you make of his drop in K rate though? More pitches in the zone, leading to less walks but more contact?

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 01:50 PM
I'd guess seeing Cueto have success pitching to contact has allowed Homer to see that his defense is among the best baseball has to offer. It also allows him to stay longer in games. So, by giving up some Ks, he can earn more IP, and, because of his defense, win more games.

MikeS21
07-16-2012, 02:05 PM
Because he has been around forever, we forget Homer is still only 26 years old. There are very few 26 year old starting pitchers who are a "finished product." It is possible that by the time Homer is 28 or 29, he will be a solid #2 starter.

I definitely think he was rushed to the major leagues. I wanted to see him enjoy some sustained success at AA and AAA before being moved. Had he made his debut at age 23 instead of age 21, he most likely would have had greater maturity to handle the learning curve. I hope the Reds do not make the same mistake with Robert Stephenson or Nick Travieso. Let them mature in the minor leagues.

_Sir_Charles_
07-16-2012, 06:37 PM
Encouraging to see it broken down like this. What do you make of his drop in K rate though? More pitches in the zone, leading to less walks but more contact?

This is exactly what I think it is....and I also think it's the key to his future success. Limit the walks, pound the zone down low and let your gold glovers earn their pay. He may still allow above average HR's...but if he's limiting the walks and the base hits in general, I can live with a bunch of solo shots in GABP over the course of a year.

Brutus
07-16-2012, 06:42 PM
He is second on the team in QS with 13. Johnny Cueto is the team leader with... 14.

Not sure where this whole "inconsistent" thing from so many Reds fans is coming from. That #1 draft status must be making people think that unless Homer goes all 9 and Ks 15 every time out he's a disappointment.

For me, it's not so much the frequency in which he's pitching well this year, but that when he's not pitching well, he's really off his game. That said, when your worst pitcher, statistically, is Homer Bailey, you're in really good shape as a franchise.

The Operator
07-16-2012, 07:02 PM
For me, it's not so much the frequency in which he's pitching well this year, but that when he's not pitching well, he's really off his game. That said, when your worst pitcher, statistically, is Homer Bailey, you're in really good shape as a franchise.True. When Homer sucks, he really sucks. But thankfully he's sucking very rarely these days.

And like you say, having Homer Bailey as your worst starter is pretty nice.

dougdirt
07-20-2012, 10:49 PM
Just keeps on rolling.

Tom Servo
07-20-2012, 10:50 PM
He has much more time to devote to pitching now that his role as Batman has finally come to an end.

lollipopcurve
07-20-2012, 10:54 PM
His secondary stuff is solidifying, and he's showing good command of the fastball. Guy's arriving as a consistently good starting pitcher. All this talk about is he a 3 or a 4 or a 5 is meaningless. He is what he is, and he's getting better and better.

klw
07-20-2012, 10:55 PM
He has now gone 8 or more innings in 5 of his last ten starts. That's huge, especially this week.

Scrap Irony
07-20-2012, 11:00 PM
Homer on the season:

9-6 (career high in wins)
3.74 ERA
120.1 IP

All periphials are worse than last season, but only incrementally.

_Sir_Charles_
07-20-2012, 11:02 PM
He has much more time to devote to pitching now that his role as Batman has finally come to an end.

Okay, now THAT was funny. :beerme:

dougdirt
07-20-2012, 11:04 PM
Homer on the season:

9-6 (career high in wins)
3.74 ERA
120.1 IP

All periphials are worse than last season, but only incrementally.

K/BB since April ended is 3.43. BB/9 is 2.2, K/9 is 6.8. If he could figure out how to keep the ball in the park at a slightly better rate he would basically be Johnny Cueto.

_Sir_Charles_
07-20-2012, 11:13 PM
K/BB since April ended is 3.43. BB/9 is 2.2, K/9 is 6.8. If he could figure out how to keep the ball in the park at a slightly better rate he would basically be Johnny Cueto.

Homer would look funny in a dew rag though.

dougdirt
07-20-2012, 11:24 PM
Homer would look funny in a dew rag though.

He would probably look awful silly with Cueto's hair style too.

PuffyPig
07-20-2012, 11:34 PM
This is the best I have ever seen Homer pitch.

He struck out guys on many different pitches. They were lucky to score off of him.

bellhead
07-21-2012, 12:53 AM
This is the best I have ever seen Homer pitch.

He struck out guys on many different pitches. They were lucky to score off of him.

He's pitching himself into elite company this year... Yes they were lucky to score off of him..

Matt700wlw
07-21-2012, 01:05 AM
Bailey has went from a boy to a man, and a staple to this rotation.

Scrap Irony
07-21-2012, 01:09 AM
He's pitching largely the same way he pitched last season.

The results are different.

This is what happens when luck balances out.

Bailey's result numbers, right now, are the second-best on the Red team. His periphials are about the same as Latos, Leake, and Arroyo.

VR
07-21-2012, 02:10 AM
Bailey has went from a boy to a man, and a staple to this rotation.

Dusty deserves a lot of credit.

dougdirt
07-21-2012, 02:54 AM
Dusty deserves a lot of credit.

Can I ask what makes you say that?

RedsManRick
07-21-2012, 02:55 AM
Homer has a lower K rate, higher BB rate, higher HR rate than last year. His ERA is half a run lower. You say he's having a good season. I say he's just getting lucky for a change.

I really hope he can keep this K rate up that he's flashed the last few starts.

dougdirt
07-21-2012, 03:04 AM
Homer has a lower K rate, higher BB rate, higher HR rate than last year. His ERA is half a run lower. You say he's having a good season. I say he's just getting lucky for a change.

I really hope he can keep this K rate up that he's flashed the last few starts.

Of course since April, it has been nearly the same as last year. His 95 innings since April look a whole lot like the ones he threw in 2011.

757690
07-21-2012, 04:08 AM
Just based on my observation, Bailey is pitching very differently than last year, and the years before. He is much calmer on the mound, much more focused, and doesn't get rattled. He doesn't start the game throwing as hard as he can, instead, he pitches efficiently, and this has allowed him to stay strong through the later innings.

More importantly, it looks like he is now throwing a split finger as his change up. I believe he started it last year, but this year is using it far more often. Also, all of his pitches have more movement on them, resulting in weaker contact.

He needed to make adjustments and he has. I didn't think he would be able to. I am glad I was wrong.

lollipopcurve
07-21-2012, 09:25 AM
Dusty deserves a lot of credit.

Not sure I'd say "a lot," but he definitely deserves some. Bailey's early career has been fraught with peril -- rushed to the bigs under high expectations, a long learning curve as he battled uneven performance, shifting secondary selections, and impatient or indifferent home crowds and media. Tough for a former high first round pick to overcome all of that without having to go to another team. But Baker has always shown confidence in Homer, and I think that must have been helped.

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2012, 01:11 PM
I love Homer Bailey. Happy for this kid right now.

nate
07-21-2012, 01:44 PM
He's pitching largely the same way he pitched last season.

The results are different.

This is what happens when luck balances out.

Bailey's result numbers, right now, are the second-best on the Red team. His periphials are about the same as Latos, Leake, and Arroyo.

Interesting observation.


Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Cueto 126.1 6.7 2.21 0.36 0.295 2.28 3.07 3.85 3.1
Leake 110 5.89 1.96 1.15 0.304 4.25 4.12 3.69 1.3
Arroyo 111.2 6.13 1.53 1.29 0.294 4.03 4.16 4.17 1.3
Bailey 120.1 6.58 2.24 1.27 0.286 3.74 4.29 4.17 1.2
Latos 114.1 8.34 2.76 1.5 0.275 4.33 4.34 3.82 1.1

And here are the ranks of those numbers:


Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Cueto 1 2 3 1 4 1 1 3 1
Leake 5 5 2 2 5 4 2 1 2
Arroyo 4 4 1 4 3 3 3 4 2
Bailey 2 3 4 3 2 2 4 4 4
Latos 3 1 5 5 1 5 5 2 5

Aside from who's better than who, that's a pretty decent pitching staff.

VR
07-21-2012, 01:54 PM
Can I ask what makes you say that?

He's taken him under his wing to teach him maturity and being a team player.

The arm hasn't changed, the head has.

dougdirt
07-21-2012, 02:10 PM
He's taken him under his wing to teach him maturity and being a team player.

The arm hasn't changed, the head has.

Baker has been here for years. Why is it just now happening?

WVRedsFan
07-21-2012, 02:10 PM
I thought it was interesting that someone on the MLB channel said last night that the key to Homer was "patience." It took him longer to learn how to get the job done. They went on to say that having patience with a talented player was very difficult, but it was now paying off with Homer. I can't remember who said that.

Benihana
07-21-2012, 02:16 PM
He has much more time to devote to pitching now that his role as Batman has finally come to an end.

:lol:

Oddly, his K/9 is the lowest its been in five years.

He has also almost eclipsed his career high in IP, and it's still just July.

Regardless of whatever is happening or not happening, I'll take it. If he continues to pitch like he did last night, he will have finally blossomed into the pitcher we all hoped he could be when he was coming up in the minors.

dougdirt
07-21-2012, 02:32 PM
He has also almost eclipsed his career high in IP, and it's still just July.


Well, he has almost eclipsed his career high in the Majors. He has over 200 innings in a single season.

RED VAN HOT
07-21-2012, 02:35 PM
Just based on my observation, Bailey is pitching very differently than last year, and the years before. He is much calmer on the mound, much more focused, and doesn't get rattled. He doesn't start the game throwing as hard as he can, instead, he pitches efficiently, and this has allowed him to stay strong through the later innings.

More importantly, it looks like he is now throwing a split finger as his change up. I believe he started it last year, but this year is using it far more often. Also, all of his pitches have more movement on them, resulting in weaker contact.

He needed to make adjustments and he has. I didn't think he would be able to. I am glad I was wrong.

Absolutely. I could not agree more. I can't claim to know exactly what he is throwing, but I have noticed that he is mixing in off speed pitches with decent break and sink and throwing them for strikes. In the past he seemed to be strictly FB/slider and the slider was not a plus pitch. His success depended almost solely on FB location. That seemed to change about two months ago. He is pitching with more patience and confidence and maintaining the speed of his FB later into the game.

dougdirt
07-21-2012, 02:39 PM
Absolutely. I could not agree more. I can't claim to know exactly what he is throwing, but I have noticed that he is mixing in off speed pitches with decent break and sink and throwing them for strikes. In the past he seemed to be strictly FB/slider and the slider was not a plus pitch. His success depended almost solely on FB location. That seemed to change about two months ago. He is pitching with more patience and confidence and maintaining the speed of his FB later into the game.

In 2011, Homer Bailey's slider was the 5th best slider in baseball in terms of value per 100 of them thrown (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=100&type=7&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=10,d) (minimum 100 IP). It was every bit of a plus pitch.

VR
07-21-2012, 05:58 PM
Baker has been here for years. Why is it just now happening?

I get it doug, you hate Dusty. I respect your opinion.

If Homer named his firstborn Dusty, some would think it was because he is a fan of Dusty Springfield.

TV and radio announcers are continually talking about Dusty's mentoring of Homer. I know there is not a peripheral for that, but I happen to believe good leadership can actually get the best out of anyone.

dougdirt
07-21-2012, 06:03 PM
I get it doug, you hate Dusty. I respect your opinion.

If Homer named his firstborn Dusty, some would think it was because he is a fan of Dusty Springfield.

TV and radio announcers are continually talking about Dusty's mentoring of Homer. I know there is not a peripheral for that, but I happen to believe good leadership can actually get the best out of anyone.

I believe it can too. I just don't think it would have taken 4 years if that were the case.

And no, I don't hate Dusty. I think he is a bad manager of the game.

VR
07-21-2012, 07:37 PM
I believe it can too. I just don't think it would have taken 4 years if that were the case.

And no, I don't hate Dusty. I think he is a bad manager of the game.

Yes, I was thinking he should have gotten the best potential out of all the young player by the end of Spring Training of 08.

You can try all you want, but you also need your horse to realize he really is thirsty.

Big Klu
07-21-2012, 09:35 PM
I get it doug, you hate Dusty. I respect your opinion.

If Homer named his firstborn Dusty, some would think it was because he is a fan of Dusty Springfield.

TV and radio announcers are continually talking about Dusty's mentoring of Homer. I know there is not a peripheral for that, but I happen to believe good leadership can actually get the best out of anyone.

Well, if his firstborn was a daughter then it would make more sense. And to be fair, Dusty Springfield was an incredible talent.

dougdirt
07-25-2012, 11:18 PM
Homer sitting with a 3.53 ERA as of right now.

mattfeet
07-25-2012, 11:18 PM
He's been a nice mid-year fantasy acquisition, if I say so myself. :)

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2012, 11:22 PM
Homer sitting with a 3.53 ERA as of right now.

22nd best ERA in the NL. That'll work.

4-0 this month with a 1.76 era. 27 k, 3 bb. And that's BEFORE tonights game.

Joseph
07-25-2012, 11:46 PM
And a win for him given away.

Homer Bailey
07-26-2012, 12:49 AM
Pitcher of the month? If he would have gotten the W tonight I think he would have been a lock. Still could be.

Caveat Emperor
07-26-2012, 12:57 AM
He was doing some big-boy pitching tonight. Didn't have his best stuff (and didn't get a lot of cooperation from the ump on some close pitches), but battled and pitched out of spots.

His composure on the mound is light-years better than it was just a year or two ago.

Tom Servo
07-26-2012, 01:49 AM
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7ity7Jgky1qbcvbwo1_500.png
Because hes the hero Cincinnati deserves, but not the one it needs right now.

DGullett35
07-26-2012, 01:56 AM
He was doing some big-boy pitching tonight. Didn't have his best stuff (and didn't get a lot of cooperation from the ump on some close pitches), but battled and pitched out of spots.

His composure on the mound is light-years better than it was just a year or two ago.

This statement goes for the whole staff. Seems like when any of the 5 don't have their best stuff they still go out an compete and give us a chance to win.

mth123
07-26-2012, 04:51 AM
He was doing some big-boy pitching tonight. Didn't have his best stuff (and didn't get a lot of cooperation from the ump on some close pitches), but battled and pitched out of spots.

His composure on the mound is light-years better than it was just a year or two ago.

Funny that children are capable of approaching our hopes for them if we just give them time to grow up. Rushing to judgement about guys under 25 is a poor idea when that judgemet differs so much from projections.

Now, if we can stop doing the same with 25 y/o Jay Bruce.

traderumor
07-26-2012, 09:15 AM
Irony, Homer has his first scoreless stint of the year and doesn't get the win (disclaimer: I know pitcher win/losses don't mean anything, so no need to point that out ;) ).

traderumor
07-26-2012, 09:16 AM
Funny that children are capable of approaching our hopes for them if we just give them time to grow up. Rushing to judgement about guys under 25 is a poor idea when that judgemet differs so much from projections.

Now, if we can stop doing the same with 25 y/o Jay Bruce.:beerme:

dougdirt
07-26-2012, 06:35 PM
Homer Bailey with a 118 ERA+ after last night. That is pretty strong.

PickOff
07-26-2012, 06:46 PM
Homer Bailey with a 118 ERA+ after last night. That is pretty strong.

I'm pleasantly surprised. I hope he finishes the season strong and the Reds cash in and trade him in the offseason or at the start of next season.

dougdirt
07-26-2012, 06:57 PM
I'm pleasantly surprised. I hope he finishes the season strong and the Reds cash in and trade him in the offseason or at the start of next season.

Can I ask why you would trade him?

reds44
07-26-2012, 06:58 PM
'Cause we have too many good starters in their mid 20's.

PickOff
07-26-2012, 07:20 PM
Can I ask why you would trade him?

He exceeding his career norms, and while he may have turned the corner, he would probably be worth more to a team that doesn't play in GAB. I think the Reds could get good value and improve team on balance. He has also not managed to stay particularly healthy, either.

traderumor
07-26-2012, 07:34 PM
He exceeding his career norms, and while he may have turned the corner, he would probably be worth more to a team that doesn't play in GAB. I think the Reds could get good value and improve team on balance. He has also not managed to stay particularly healthy, either.Career norms as a pitcher in the 20 - 25 age range as one would hope. I do not understand the ballpark reasoning at all.

PickOff
07-26-2012, 07:46 PM
Career norms as a pitcher in the 20 - 25 age range as one would hope. I do not understand the ballpark reasoning at all.

Well, he has a 5.01 career ERA at home over 53 starts and 4.09 away. And this year he has a 4.58 at home to 2.63 away.