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Kc61
07-16-2012, 12:25 PM
I noticed that Hoover has a 1.44 ground ball to fly ball ratio at AAA. Small sample, only 20.2 innings, but it looks to me like he is working on avoiding his fly ball tendencies.

Otherwise his stats are stellar with a 12.19 K rate and very few hits allowed.

I have no doubt he will get a September call up, but it looks like he could help the Reds sooner than that.

Has anyone seen him pitch and notice any change? Are they working with him on getting more grounders?

Guy certainly has ability, he seems to miss a lot of bats.

dougdirt
07-16-2012, 12:32 PM
That is where GO/AO misses things. Hoover has a 39% groundball rate in AAA. His GO/AO suggests he gets more groundballs than flyballs, but that isn't close to being the case.

Kc61
07-16-2012, 12:35 PM
That is where GO/AO misses things. Hoover has a 39% groundball rate in AAA. His GO/AO suggests he gets more groundballs than flyballs, but that isn't close to being the case.

The stat was G/F from Baseball America's stats page.

Surprising to me that the G/F stat translates a 39% grounder rate into a 1.44 ratio.

39% is Arroyo right now. Hardly a ground ball pitcher.

If you or someone else can explain the discrepancy, I'd like to understand it better.

Again, the stat was not GO/AO but G/F. I took it to be comparing all ground balls to all fly balls. But regardless, it does suggest Hoover has become (small sample) more of a fly ball pitcher which 39% does not.

dougdirt
07-16-2012, 12:48 PM
The stat was G/F from Baseball America's stats page.

Surprising to me that the G/F stat translates a 39% grounder rate into a 1.44 ratio.

39% is Arroyo right now. Hardly a ground ball pitcher.

If you or someone else can explain the discrepancy, I'd like to understand it better.

GO/AO only accounts for OUTS. GB% accounts for every ball put in play against him.

Seems like when he gets a grounder, it is turning into an out at a high rate, but when the ball isn't a grounder, it is finding the grass.

Kc61
07-16-2012, 12:50 PM
GO/AO only accounts for OUTS. GB% accounts for every ball put in play against him.

Seems like when he gets a grounder, it is turning into an out at a high rate, but when the ball isn't a grounder, it is finding the grass.

The Baseball America stats page uses G/F. Not actually GO/AO. Just G/F.

I took G/F to include all batted balls. No?

dougdirt
07-16-2012, 12:53 PM
I see your update now.

I don't know where they are getting their numbers from. Maybe they are solely using groundballs and fly balls and ignoring line drives, pop ups and bunts? I don't have the data to check over, but that can be the only thing going on and even then I can't imagine line drives, pop ups and bunt swaying the numbers that far.

Kc61
07-16-2012, 12:58 PM
I see your update now.

I don't know where they are getting their numbers from. Maybe they are solely using groundballs and fly balls and ignoring line drives, pop ups and bunts? I don't have the data to check over, but that can be the only thing going on and even then I can't imagine line drives, pop ups and bunt swaying the numbers that far.

Thanks. Much appreciated.

Blitz Dorsey
07-16-2012, 07:26 PM
I'm loving that Francisco-for-Hoover trade. Highway robbery. The Reds have their 3B of the future anyway with Frazier and they were able to flip Francisco for a quality relief pitcher. That's a win.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-16-2012, 09:42 PM
I'm not sue why Hoover is in AAA while Ondrusek continues to struggle (3 years now) with the big boys.

Also, I wouldn't mind seeing Donnie Joseph taking Bray's spot. Soon.

Hillsdale87
07-16-2012, 09:52 PM
Ondrusek has a career ERA of 3.40 and an ERA of 3.23 this season. I'm not sure you can really say he's continuing to struggle

camisadelgolf
07-16-2012, 10:22 PM
Ondrusek might be the worst pitcher in the bullpen, but he's hardly struggling. I'd wait until his luck starts regressing to the mean before I'd make that argument.

Kc61
07-16-2012, 10:27 PM
Ondrusek might be the worst pitcher in the bullpen, but he's hardly struggling. I'd wait until his luck starts regressing to the mean before I'd make that argument.

Ondrusek is going nowhere.

Bray, however, could be exchanged for Hoover. Whose name, of course, is atop this thread.

camisadelgolf
07-16-2012, 10:47 PM
Ondrusek is going nowhere.

Bray, however, could be exchanged for Hoover. Whose name, of course, is atop this thread.
For multiple reasons, the Reds are going to give Bray every last opportunity to turn things around. If things don't work out, the best the Reds could hope for is that they DFA Bray and get a mid-level prospect in return.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-16-2012, 10:54 PM
Ondrusek has a career ERA of 3.40 and an ERA of 3.23 this season. I'm not sure you can really say he's continuing to struggle

Because ERA is just about one of the most worthless metrics in judging a relief pitcher. That's why.

Superdude
07-16-2012, 10:57 PM
Ondrusek is going nowhere.

Bray, however, could be exchanged for Hoover. Whose name, of course, is atop this thread.

Bray's outing was a complete debacle tonight. I don't think I've ever seen a player look so out of whack before. Hoover should be back yesterday IMO, and Joseph should be getting a hard look.

KentuckyHillbil
07-16-2012, 11:00 PM
I understand the importance of having the additional left hander in the pen, but Bray hasn't really looked right since his return from injury. He needs to have a reoccurence (wink, wink) of his injury and log some rehab innings at Louisville. Simply put: Hoover and Joseph are both pitching better at this time.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-17-2012, 12:24 AM
I'm not sure the struggles of Ondrusek can be completely understood until you put his peripherals into proper context with his peers.

Of the 155 relief pitchers that qualify (minimum 26.2 IP) in 2012, Ondrusek ranks:

#144 of 155 in fWAR (-.03)
#138 of 155 in K/9 (5.68)
#143 of 155 in BB/9 (5.40)
#141 of 155 in FIP (4.93)
#152 of 155 in xFIP (5.22)

NL only (out of 80 relief pitchers with at least 26.2 IP):

#72 of 80 in fWAR (-.03)
#74 of 80 in K/9 (5.68)
#72 of 80 in BB/9 (5.40)
#71 of 80 in FIP (4.93)
#77 of 80 in xFIP (5.22)

And this is not some strange fluke that is only occurring in 2012. Let's look at 2011.


In 2011, of the 134 relief pitchers that qualify (minimum 48.2 IP), Ondrusek ranked:

#120 of 134 in fWAR (-.02)
#113 of 134 in K/9 (6.02)
#104 of 134 in BB/9 (4.11)
#119 of 134 in FIP (4.43)
#118 of 134 in xFIP (4.49)

Now NL only in 2011, out of 71 relief pitchers that qualify:

#64 of 71 in fWAR (-.02)
#61 of 71 in K/9 (6.02)
#54 of 71 in BB/9 (4.11)
#66 of 71 in FIP (4.43)
#66 of 71 in xFIP (4.49)

Since 2010, there have been 66 NL relief pitchers with at least 100 IP. Within that 66, he ranks:


#63 of 66 in fWAR (-.05)
#63 of 66 in K/9 (5.93)
#52 of 66 in BB/9 (3.98)
#62 of 66 in FIP (4.49)
#63 of 66 in xFIP (4.52)


So I guess if one wants to argue with the definition of struggling, fine. Be my guest. If you don't define struggling as being in the bottom 5-10% in nearly every category and being sub-replacement level, then sure, I guess he's not struggling according to that definition.

Patrick Bateman
07-17-2012, 12:50 AM
Ondrusek has been just awful this season. Reminds me a ton of Gary Majewski (another guy billed as a late inning option because of some nice luck and "late inning mentality"). Very hittable, doesn't have superb control, is not a groundball ace. He's at best, a ROOGY, that should be used in spot situations in order to avoid being exposed. I think Buckeye did a very good job of quantifying just how awful Ondrusek has been this season.

mace
07-17-2012, 11:09 AM
Buckeye's post is certainly an eye-opener. His struggles have been evident, but I didn't realize they had reached that extent. One caveat: like so many of the Reds, he's a streaky dude. He'll have his stretches of effectiveness.

In the meantime, his whole scenario makes me wonder whether he might be a candidate for conversion to a starter. One of his troubles out of the bullpen has been a tendency to drop off sharply with frequent usage. Maybe the every-fifth-day schedule would suit him better. He does seem to have an adequate mix of fastball, sinker, curve. And he definitely has the body of a starter. In the minors, he found success when they switched him from starting to relieving, but that seemed to coincide with his development of the two-seamer, or whatever it was that Tom Brown taught him. Given that he has made himself somewhat expendable as a reliever, it seems to be worth a shot.

mace
07-17-2012, 11:10 AM
dp

Blitz Dorsey
07-17-2012, 04:47 PM
I'm not sure the struggles of Ondrusek can be completely understood until you put his peripherals into proper context with his peers.

Of the 155 relief pitchers that qualify (minimum 26.2 IP) in 2012, Ondrusek ranks:

#144 of 155 in fWAR (-.03)
#138 of 155 in K/9 (5.68)
#143 of 155 in BB/9 (5.40)
#141 of 155 in FIP (4.93)
#152 of 155 in xFIP (5.22)

NL only (out of 80 relief pitchers with at least 26.2 IP):

#72 of 80 in fWAR (-.03)
#74 of 80 in K/9 (5.68)
#72 of 80 in BB/9 (5.40)
#71 of 80 in FIP (4.93)
#77 of 80 in xFIP (5.22)

And this is not some strange fluke that is only occurring in 2012. Let's look at 2011.


In 2011, of the 134 relief pitchers that qualify (minimum 48.2 IP), Ondrusek ranked:

#120 of 134 in fWAR (-.02)
#113 of 134 in K/9 (6.02)
#104 of 134 in BB/9 (4.11)
#119 of 134 in FIP (4.43)
#118 of 134 in xFIP (4.49)

Now NL only in 2011, out of 71 relief pitchers that qualify:

#64 of 71 in fWAR (-.02)
#61 of 71 in K/9 (6.02)
#54 of 71 in BB/9 (4.11)
#66 of 71 in FIP (4.43)
#66 of 71 in xFIP (4.49)

Since 2010, there have been 66 NL relief pitchers with at least 100 IP. Within that 66, he ranks:


#63 of 66 in fWAR (-.05)
#63 of 66 in K/9 (5.93)
#52 of 66 in BB/9 (3.98)
#62 of 66 in FIP (4.49)
#63 of 66 in xFIP (4.52)


So I guess if one wants to argue with the definition of struggling, fine. Be my guest. If you don't define struggling as being in the bottom 5-10% in nearly every category and being sub-replacement level, then sure, I guess he's not struggling according to that definition.

Wow, I had no idea about this. I was (falsely) considering Ondrusek to be a solid option out of the pen. I'll show myself out.

RedlegJake
07-17-2012, 11:04 PM
I wouldn't give up on Logan - his problems are more mechanical than anything. Maybe some time in AAA to work on that is needed.

Reading back to Buckeyes post, though, I too did not realize how bad Logan had been so edit this to maybe trade him if possible