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camisadelgolf
07-16-2012, 06:00 PM
As we get near the trade deadline, I thought I'd take a look at how the Reds stand in terms of their player payroll. For 2013, $62.75M is owed between 10 players:

17.00 Joey Votto
10.00 Brandon Phillips
8.00 Bronson Arroyo
7.50 Jay Bruce
7.40 Johnny Cueto
4.50 Sean Marshall
3.10 Nick Masset
2.05 Ryan Hanigan
2.00 Aroldis Chapman
1.20 Jose Arredondo

When you consider the Reds' lack of outfield depth combined with no obvious, affordable upgrades due to hit the free agent market, I think the Reds will pick up Ryan Ludwick's $5M option. That pushes the payroll up to $67.75M.

Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Sam LeCure, and Devin Mesoraco are all due to be in pre-arbitration, which means the Reds could pay them the Major League minimum if they'd like. That's 15 roster spots filled with $69.75M owed in payroll. Moving on to the players eligible for arbitration . . .

Bill Bray will be eligible for his 3rd year of arbitration. It would be tough to imagine him getting a raise, but maybe he could make a similar salary if he rebounds with a big 2nd half. Otherwise, expect him to be non-tendered.

Homer Bailey and Wilson Valdez are 2nd year arbitration eligible. I'm not a Valdez fan, but if he sticks around, it's pretty likely that he would get a nominal raise to about $1.0M. As for Bailey, he's making $2.425M this year, and seeing as how he's having a solid year, I could see that jumping up to around $4M.

With the salary now at about $76.25M, that leaves 6 players who are 1st-time arbitration eligible: Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, and Drew Stubbs. You're guess is as good as mine as far as how much they're going to make next year, but it's pretty clearly to me that the payroll will be pushing $90M next year--and that's not including Aroldis Chapman's annual bonus (doesn't count toward the payroll), escalator clauses (e.g. Gold Glove and MVP awards), and the possibility of re-signing Miguel Cairo, Ryan Madson, or Scott Rolen.

So what do you all think? Do the Reds need to trim some fat? Who are the non-tender candidates? Do you see any trades happening that will add/shed payroll? Are there any free agent possibilities?

oregonred
07-16-2012, 06:39 PM
Add Madsen's 2.5M option buyout and Chapman's prorated is low. More like 70M for the 10 core players.

Things get really dicey in 2014 and 2015 when the entire young starting staff nears FA. Hopefully a massive new TV contract saves the day. This is why Upton/Greinke or any other big salary addition is a pipedream barring a new TV deal/

No way Bray gets tendered this offseason. Stubbs is also getting expensive...

Scrap Irony
07-16-2012, 07:17 PM
It wouldn't surprise me to see Jocketty and company jettison up to five guys in order to free up around $7 million:
Nick Masset
Comment: In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, Masset hasn't done anythign of note for about a year. The Reds also have two major league ready guys already in AAA (Joseph and Hoover) and at least five others already on the roster.
Possible savings: $2.75 million

Bill Bray
Comment: Two LH on the major league roster already, plus Joseph. Bray's brittle and expensive, too-- two things that are not favorable in mid-level salary constraints.
Possible savings: $1.25 million

Drew Stubbs
Comments: He's gone downhill since being given the starting nod and having a career year in 2010. Ks too much and his production has pretty much fallen to replacement player levels. No replacements in-house (aside from Heisey), but he's too expensive for what he brings to the table.
Possible savings: $1.5 million

Wilson Valdez
The least objectionable of the players, but the least upside as well. DiDi Gregorius should do just as well in the same role for half the price.
Possible savings: $500,000

Ryan Hanigan
I love what he brings, but, really, he's a maybe-because-of-his-glove-he's-average catcher that's making $2 million+. IMO, Navarro can do the same job for less. Or, even better, Mesoraco, who needs everyday time, can play big brother in another platoon.
Possible savings: $1 million

Vottomatic
07-16-2012, 07:26 PM
It wouldn't surprise me to see Jocketty and company jettison up to five guys in order to free up around $7 million:
Nick Masset
Comment: In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, Masset hasn't done anythign of note for about a year. The Reds also have two major league ready guys already in AAA (Joseph and Hoover) and at least five others already on the roster.
Possible savings: $2.75 million

Bill Bray
Comment: Two LH on the major league roster already, plus Joseph. Bray's brittle and expensive, too-- two things that are not favorable in mid-level salary constraints.
Possible savings: $1.25 million

Drew Stubbs
Comments: He's gone downhill since being given the starting nod and having a career year in 2010. Ks too much and his production has pretty much fallen to replacement player levels. No replacements in-house (aside from Heisey), but he's too expensive for what he brings to the table.
Possible savings: $1.5 million

Wilson Valdez
The least objectionable of the players, but the least upside as well. DiDi Gregorius should do just as well in the same role for half the price.
Possible savings: $500,000

Ryan Hanigan
I love what he brings, but, really, he's a maybe-because-of-his-glove-he's-average catcher that's making $2 million+. IMO, Navarro can do the same job for less. Or, even better, Mesoraco, who needs everyday time, can play big brother in another platoon.
Possible savings: $1 million

Geez. I hate to get rid of Hanigan. I already wonder how much better this team would be offensively had Ramon still been here and Mez in Louisville. But you got to give the young guys a chance eventually, I get that. But Ramon had the ability to get that big hit. Hanigan's is sooo undervalued by Reds fans.

Benihana
07-16-2012, 09:44 PM
It wouldn't surprise me to see Jocketty and company jettison up to five guys in order to free up around $7 million:
Nick Masset
Comment: In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, Masset hasn't done anythign of note for about a year. The Reds also have two major league ready guys already in AAA (Joseph and Hoover) and at least five others already on the roster.
Possible savings: $2.75 million

Bill Bray
Comment: Two LH on the major league roster already, plus Joseph. Bray's brittle and expensive, too-- two things that are not favorable in mid-level salary constraints.
Possible savings: $1.25 million

Drew Stubbs
Comments: He's gone downhill since being given the starting nod and having a career year in 2010. Ks too much and his production has pretty much fallen to replacement player levels. No replacements in-house (aside from Heisey), but he's too expensive for what he brings to the table.
Possible savings: $1.5 million

Wilson Valdez
The least objectionable of the players, but the least upside as well. DiDi Gregorius should do just as well in the same role for half the price.
Possible savings: $500,000

Ryan Hanigan
I love what he brings, but, really, he's a maybe-because-of-his-glove-he's-average catcher that's making $2 million+. IMO, Navarro can do the same job for less. Or, even better, Mesoraco, who needs everyday time, can play big brother in another platoon.
Possible savings: $1 million

I'd be fine shedding any of those guys. I'd be most reluctant to move Hanigan.

mth123
07-17-2012, 01:43 AM
As we get near the trade deadline, I thought I'd take a look at how the Reds stand in terms of their player payroll. For 2013, $62.75M is owed between 10 players:

17.00 Joey Votto
10.00 Brandon Phillips
8.00 Bronson Arroyo
7.50 Jay Bruce
7.40 Johnny Cueto
4.50 Sean Marshall
3.10 Nick Masset
2.05 Ryan Hanigan
2.00 Aroldis Chapman
1.20 Jose Arredondo

When you consider the Reds' lack of outfield depth combined with no obvious, affordable upgrades due to hit the free agent market, I think the Reds will pick up Ryan Ludwick's $5M option. That pushes the payroll up to $67.75M.

Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Sam LeCure, and Devin Mesoraco are all due to be in pre-arbitration, which means the Reds could pay them the Major League minimum if they'd like. That's 15 roster spots filled with $69.75M owed in payroll. Moving on to the players eligible for arbitration . . .

Bill Bray will be eligible for his 3rd year of arbitration. It would be tough to imagine him getting a raise, but maybe he could make a similar salary if he rebounds with a big 2nd half. Otherwise, expect him to be non-tendered.

Homer Bailey and Wilson Valdez are 2nd year arbitration eligible. I'm not a Valdez fan, but if he sticks around, it's pretty likely that he would get a nominal raise to about $1.0M. As for Bailey, he's making $2.425M this year, and seeing as how he's having a solid year, I could see that jumping up to around $4M.

With the salary now at about $76.25M, that leaves 6 players who are 1st-time arbitration eligible: Chris Heisey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, and Drew Stubbs. You're guess is as good as mine as far as how much they're going to make next year, but it's pretty clearly to me that the payroll will be pushing $90M next year--and that's not including Aroldis Chapman's annual bonus (doesn't count toward the payroll), escalator clauses (e.g. Gold Glove and MVP awards), and the possibility of re-signing Miguel Cairo, Ryan Madson, or Scott Rolen.

So what do you all think? Do the Reds need to trim some fat? Who are the non-tender candidates? Do you see any trades happening that will add/shed payroll? Are there any free agent possibilities?

I think Votto is due a signing bonus payment of $2 Million on top of his $17 Million Salary. I show Arroyo at $6.5 Million, but there will be something paid towards his deferred money.

IMO, Bray is the most likely to be purged to save cash. At least one of Ludwick, Stubbs or Heisey has to go IMO. Valdez is probably gone. Ondrusek might be another guy who gets dealt.

RedFanAlways1966
07-17-2012, 07:31 AM
Drew Stubbs
Comments: He's gone downhill since being given the starting nod and having a career year in 2010. Ks too much and his production has pretty much fallen to replacement player levels. No replacements in-house (aside from Heisey), but he's too expensive for what he brings to the table.
Possible savings: $1.5 million

I am still trying to figure out what Drew Stubbs brings to the table. Whatever it may be... they can survive without it. Hasta la vista, Drew.

Sea Ray
07-17-2012, 09:54 AM
It's a challenge and it makes it all the more puzzling why they agreed to all these contracts to begin with, starting with Arroyo. Makes it nice to say "it's not my money"